For the first time in 26 long years, the Knicks have advanced to the NBA Finals, and are now just four wins from heights unseen in half a century.
Their eventual foe has yet to be determined, as the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder battle for the Western Conference in a 2-2 draw entering Game 5 on Tuesday night.
The way the Knicks have played since Game 3 of the first round, no fan would be out of line for outsized confidence in either potential matchup. However, the reality is the Spurs and Thunder are leagues ahead of any competition New York has faced thus far in the postseason, and each present unique challenges in a league where styles make fights.
With that in mind, which team would be the better matchup for the Knicks?
Spurs
The Spurs offer some nice narrative arcs for the Knicks, with Mike Brown getting revenge for the 2007 Finals and the franchise for 1999. Fans also like this idea because the Knicks went 2-1 against them during the regular season and in their NBA Cup Championship game.
You normally can't bank on regular season results, but they can be indicative of certain advantages, much like San Antonio’s dominance over OKC this season. This won’t be some walk in the park, but the Knicks have real leverage in this matchup.
First, they have the best one-man answers to Victor Wembanyama in the league -- with OG Anunoby and Mitchell Robinson. Both already showed how they can stymie him without pulling too much of the remaining defense's attention.
Second, they have the perimeter defenders to bother Spurs guards in De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. Mikal Bridges has locked up every All-Star caliber guard thrown at him this postseason, and Josh Hart and Miles McBride are coming up huge as well.
Finally, there’s the five-out option the Knicks can lean on to circumvent the Spurs’ suffocating defense. Wembanyama won’t be allowed to easily roam or protect the paint if he has to stretch out to Karl-Anthony Towns or Anunoby.
San Antonio is also a younger, less-tested team, although they’ve answered the call through two rounds and aren’t making it easy for the reigning champions. They definitely have their own edges in the series.
The Spurs will have many defensive guards and big wings to throw at Jalen Brunson, and have proven themselves much more versatile and flexible schematically than some of the other foes the Knicks have faced. They’re also comfortable playing at New York’s pace.
Oklahoma City Thunder
New York dropped two competitive games to Oklahoma City during the regular season, and will definitely come armed with fewer strategic edges should they meet. Still, the way the Knicks have jelled, it’s anybody’s game.
The Knicks will need to tap into all of their offensive creation -- Towns in the pinch post, Brunson ball, transition -- to test the Thunder's defense. They boast enough scrappy defensive guards to wear Brunson down, so the more he can get off the ball and still find success is key.
Towns will have to be especially patient and choosy with his approach. Scoring on the tandem of Isaiah Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren won’t be easy if the offense isn’t flowing, and his creation will be tested against a lot of reaching arms.
They’ll likely start Bridges, who has the poise and ability, on MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and see how aggressively they’ll need to help. Beyond Bridges there aren’t a ton of clean one-on-one matchups to try, and over-extending the defense will lead to lots of open threes, so much of this series would ride on him.
One thing working heavily in New York’s favor would be the injury list. Jalen Williams has been battling a hamstring issue, while Ajay Mitchell is out.
Knicks fans might be on top of the world now, but in eight short days they’ll begin the team’s toughest series to date. Whoever they play, it’ll be a grueling, emotional, and unmissable final hurdle to the championship.
Spurs +4.5
Thunder TT o110.5
COVERS INTEL: Sandy Alcantara ranks in the 92nd percentile with a .290 xBA.
Yandy Diaz
Randy Arozarena
