Southwest Division rivals face off in tonight's “Battle of Texas” as the San Antonio Spurs host the Houston Rockets.
Elite defense will be on display from both teams, and my Rockets vs Spurs predictions call for the Under to hit at Frost Bank Center.
Here are my free NBA picks for this divisional tilt on Sunday, March 8.
Rockets vs Spurs prediction
Rockets vs Spurs best bet: Under 222.5 (-115)
Don’t expect a high-scoring affair tonight, as the Under has hit in two straight and eight of the last 10 head-to-head matchups between the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs.
Houston is 27-35 to the Under — including a 13-30 mark on the road — while San Antonio is 26-38 (12-17 at home).
The Rockets have allowed the third-fewest points per game at 109.3, and the Spurs have allowed the seventh-fewest at 111.4.
Rockets vs Spurs same-game parlay
Alperen Sengun has found success against Victor Wembanyama, averaging 20.2 points and 5.4 assists across nine head-to-head matchups.
Sengun has recorded 19+ points in 30 of 55 games overall and two of three against the Spurs this season.
He's recorded at least six dimes in 33 of 55 games overall, cruising past this line in all three games against San Antonio.
Rockets vs Spurs SGP
Under 222.5
Alperen Sengun Over 18.5 points
Alperen Sengun Over 5.5 assists
Our "from downtown" SGP: Battle of the bigs
Victor Wembanyama has averaged 12 rebounds in nine career matchups against Sengun, and he's pulled down 12+ in two of four of those at home.
Rockets vs Spurs SGP
Under 222.5
Alperen Sengun Over 18.5 points
Alperen Sengun Over 5.5 assists
Victor Wembanyama Over 11.5 rebounds
Rockets vs Spurs odds
Spread: Rockets +5 | Spurs -5
Moneyline: Rockets +170 | Spurs -205
Over/Under: Over 222.5 (-105) | Under 222.5 (-115)
Rockets vs Spurs betting trend to know
The San Antonio Spurs have hit the game total Under in 28 of their last 40 games (+14.80 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Spurs.
How to watch Rockets vs Spurs
Location
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX
Date
Sunday, March 8, 2026
Tip-off
8:00 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Rockets vs Spurs latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - MARCH 7: Ethan Salas #90 of the San Diego Padres waits for a pitch during a Spring Training game against the Cleveland Guardians at Goodyear Ballpark on March 7, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It was a rough day for San Diego Padres pitchers in Goodyear, Ariz. on Saturday. The Padres were on the road to face the Cleveland Guardians with one of their top pitchers on the mound in Michael King. It was only King’s second start of Spring Training and after a diving attempt by center fielder Bryce Johnson on a ball that landed in the outfield and rolled all the way to the wall allowing Steven Kwan to reach third base, it looked as though it was not going to be a good day. King would allow Kwan to score in the bottom of the first but limited the damage to one run. He would finish his day on the mound with 3.2 innings pitched with three earned runs allowed on three hits with two walks and two strikeouts.
Garrett Hawkins, who had been having a solid spring season, followed King and allowed two runs on two hits in 0.2 innings pitched. He also allowed a walk and failed to record any strikeouts. Carter Loewen did not fare much better following Hawkins. He also worked 0.2 innings and allowed two runs on three hits with a walk and a strikeout.
The first three pitchers for the Padres combined with the San Diego offense, which had one run on 10 hits, took the loss in Goodyear at the hands of the Guardians, 7-1. The Padres will look for better performances from the pitching staff when they play the Cincinnati Reds at the Peoria Sports Complex on Sunday at 12:10 p.m.
Padres News:
Position battles have been the story of Spring Training for the Padres. Cheri Bell of Gaslamp Ball provides a snapshot of each competition and some insight with regard to how she believes each position will be decided. AJ Cassavell of Padres.com, like Bell, looked at the competitions in Spring Training for the Padres. He focused on the players competing for the fifth starter spot in the rotation.
The Padres have a new manager who appears young and energetic in his dealings with the media. Craig Stammen took the job as the San Diego skipper and brought in many of his own coaches and the Padres players seem to be enjoying the new atmosphere of the clubhouse.
SAN ANTONIO, TX - MARCH 6: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs celebrates after the game against the LA Clippers on March 6, 2026 at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photos by Michael Gonzales/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Most people have heard of the five stages of grief. As described by author David Kessler:
“The five stages — denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance — are a part of the framework that makes up our learning to live with the one we lost. They are tools to help us frame and identify what we may be feeling.But they are not stops on some linear timeline in grief. Not everyone goes through all of them or in a prescribed order.”
But I am not writing about grief today. No, I am writing about hope — the five stages of hope. The Spurs have had two recent games in which fans realistically had no hope that our favorite team could pull out a win.
One of those games was the second of a back-to-back on a cold February night in Toronto. (The words “February night in Toronto” are always preceded either by “snowy”, ‘freezing” or “cold”.) The night before, the Spurs had beaten the “best record in the league” Pistons in an extremely physical game against the number one defense in the NBA. In Toronto barely 24 hours later, the Spurs trailed 90-75 with less than a minute left in the third quarter. While fans had little to no hope, the players had other thoughts. After making a three to close the gap to 12 entering the fourth, the Spurs outscored the home team by 32-17 in the final quarter to win by 110-107. In some ways, that win was more impressive than the win the night before.
Last Friday against the Clippers was perhaps even more unlikely. Once again, it came 24 hours after an emotional homecoming win against those same Pistons in which Victor Wembanya played a season-high 39 minutes, which meant he was on a severe minutes restriction against the Clippers. Even worse, the Spurs fell behind by even more than in the Raptor game, trailing 75-50 in the third quarted. Check out the ESPN odds of the Clippers winning after Kawhi Leonard’s three put the Clippers up by 25 points:
+3 Points 9:23 – 3rd
Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)
75-50
Win %: LAC, 98.8
Once again, the Spurs kept hope alive, outscoring the Clippers by 9 in the third quarter (thank you, Julian Champagnie!) and by 15 in the fourth. Yes, hope is a powerful thing.
But hope does not spring from nothing, nor does it occur suddenly or magically in a gym in Toronto or San Antonio. Like grief, hope comes in stages. Like grief, hope can arise in people, or teams, after different stages and in different orders.
For this Spurs team, I believe the first stage of developing hope arose from the strength of the organization. Perhaps we can describe this stage as having a solid foundation or core — the Spurs, with their remarkable history of success, certainly provide that. This also meant instilling the right habits. Even when the team was not winning, the coaches insured the players played the right way and learned the structure and effort that makes winning possible.
The second stage in the Spurs journey was planning. Even when painful to do so, the Spurs organization planned their future. This meant trading away popular and talented players such as Dejounte Murray and Derrick White. While the organization and fans loved what those players contributed, they knew that they could not bring the team to the level we wanted. Even bringing in Chris Paul on a one-year deal last year was part of the planning, and learning, process.
The next stage for the Spurs was good fortune — being in the right place at the right time. For the Spurs, this happened when they won the lottery the same year that Victor entered the draft. We can call this stage “opportunity”. Others could call this “karma”. Certainly the entire NBA was happy that he landed with the Spurs, with their history of success and their solid organization. Pairing him, with his immense desire to succeed, with an organization known for its success, has been a perfect marriage. And while the Spurs were fortunate to be the team to select him, the organization’s intelligence led to the drafting of Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper — plus the under-rated selection in the last draft of Carter Bryant with the 14th pick,
The fourth stage was, and remains, patience. The Spurs have not attempted to skip any steps on their way back to relevance. The only significant trade they have made to bring in talent was the trade for De”Aaron Fox, a player who really wanted to come play in San Antonio. And acquiring Fox did not require squandering significant future capital — the only one of their picks surrendered was next year’s first round pick. That pick will surely be in the high 20’s, and thus reasonably expendable.
The fifth stage of hope is belief — an outgrowth of the prior four steps. Because of the solid foundation, the careful planning, the good fortune to take advantage of opportunity, and the patience to stick with it the plan, the Spurs, their players and their fans now can sincerely believe that this will all come together. And because the players and coaching staff believed that they could be better than everyone else predicted, they are now significantly ahead of everyone else’s schedule, but not their own. Which is why we all have high hopes, not only for the bright future but also for the blindingly breathtaking present.
AHMEDABAD, India (AP) — Mitchell Santner won the toss as New Zealand opted to bowl against defending champions India in the T20 World Cup final on Sunday.
It is a second consecutive T20 World Cup final for India after it beat South Africa in 2024 at Barbados to claim a second title. India won the inaugural tournament in 2007 and could become the first team to lift this trophy for a third time.
India is the only team to reach four finals. West Indies (2012 and 2016) and England (2010, 2022) are the other teams to have won the T20 World Cup twice.
New Zealand is aiming for its first T20 World Cup triumph. It finished as runner-up in the 2021 final, losing to Australia in Dubai.
India topped Group A in the first round and then finished second in Group 1 in the Super 8s. Its only loss came against South Africa in the Super 8s at the same venue. The co-hosts beat England in the second semifinal in Mumbai.
New Zealand finished second in Group D in the first round and finished second in Group 2 in the Super 8s. It beat South Africa in the first semifinal at Kolkata.
The Black Caps have made one change with medium pacer Jacob Duffy coming in for Cole McConchie.
India is unchanged from the Mumbai semifinal.
The Narendra Modi Stadium is the largest cricket ground in the world, with a crowd in excess of 100,000 expected at today’s final. The pitch should aid batters through both innings, with evening dew possibly aiding the chasing side.
New Zealand: Tim Seifert, Finn Allen, Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman, Daryl Mitchell, James Neesham, Mitchell Santner (captain), Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson, Jacob Duffy
DENVER, CO - MARCH 6: New York Knicks bench celebrates during the game against the Denver Nuggets on March 6, 2026 at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Bart Young/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Say, whatever happened to those Knicks that were a disgrace to basketball during a 2-9 stretch, which saw them play some of the worst defense the NBA has ever seen?
Wait, what do you mean that team has now been the best defense in basketball for six weeks?
It’s been a weird year. The Knicks are on pace for 52.5 wins, just marginally better than similarly topsy-turvy seasons in 2023-24 and 2024-25. Through 64 games, they’re 41-23… identical to last season. They’re once again winless against No. 1 seeds. If you looked at it from the periphery, you’d think this is the exact same season with a different tone.
But if we exclude that 11-game stretch of basketball, which, let’s be completely real, isn’t representative of this team, they’re playing at a 61-win pace. The stretch did happen, and it represents over 15% of the season, but even the most pessimistic Knicks fan cannot seriously think that a team that’s currently sixth in defensive rating is in any way similar to what they did during that stretch.
The Knicks started 23-9 (24-9, the NBA Cup counts to me, dammit!). They’re 16-5 in their last 21 games. That’s 39-14. That’s ridiculously elite basketball.
What’s the best Knicks team you’ve ever watched? Are you old enough to remember Clyde Frazier and Willis Reed winning championships in the early 1970s? Did you watch Patrick Ewing’s glory throughout the late 80’s and 90’s? Was Carmelo Anthony your introduction to Knicks playoff basketball? Do you hold really, really fond memories of the January 2024 Knicks?
I’m not arguing that the 2026 Knicks are better than any or all of them, as they can still embarrass me depending on how the last 18 games and playoffs go. That said, I’ll provide some stats that put them in some company that you’re going to want to see to believe.
Defense
Mike Brown: Defensive guru?
Probably not, but the way the Knicks have played defense with guys like Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson playing big roles is certainly notable. Towns, specifically, has tremendously improved defensively in several aspects and has had individual games of brilliance
The Knicks were at their best defensively with Karl-Anthony Towns guarding Victor Wembanyama.
The Spurs shot 26% from three on Sunday, including 2-14 (14%) on plays where KAT guarded Wemby 🔒
As previously stated, the Knicks are tied with the Celtics for the sixth-best defensive rating in the NBA. They never truly had a bad defense under Tom Thibodeau, but the only year it was this good was in 2020-21, where the team sold out to muck up games with lineups that included Elfrid Payton, Reggie Bullock, and Nerlens Noel. This team has more offensive firepower in Brunson and Towns’ pinkie toes than that team had, especially considering Julius Randle’s playoff woes.
They’re just 0.3 back of the Heat for the fourth-best defense. They’ve been better as the game goes on, sporting the league’s best defensive rating by a considerable margin in fourth quarters. When the team needs it most, they’re putting the clamps on. The dream of having defensive wings like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges is being realized, potentially to a degree never thought conceivable.
The Knicks have held 13 opponents under 100 points, fourth in the NBA. They’ve held 23 to under 105, third in the NBA. Among the teams they’ve held under these numbers:
Few things are more satisfying than a blowout. Usually, you can rely on games against undermanned teams like the Wizards, Jazz, and Nets to pick up an easy win, and the Knicks have done that. But what’s separated this team from others? They’re blowing out good teams, too.
It ended in a 10-point win, but the Knicks took the Celtics behind the barn in October, leading by as much as 24.
In early November, they boatraced Minnesota with a hobbled Anthony Edwards. They’ve blown the Raptors out repeatedly, and even the competitive games eventually see a massive run make the final result look uncompetitive. For a while, that was about it. That was until a month ago.
In the last 30 days, the Knicks have blown out the Celtics (by 22), the Sixers (by 49), the Spurs (by 25), and the Nuggets (by 39). You can add whatever context you want, these are still very impressive victories to come by this margin.
The Knicks have won 14 games by at least 20, 11 games by 25, seven games by 30, four games by 35+, two games by 40, and one by 50 this season. The only team that matches or exceeds them in any of these categories is OKC.
Here are the last Knicks teams to accomplish these numbers (remember: we still have 18 games left):
14 by 20+: 2024-25 (15) 11 by 25+: 1969-70 (11) 7 by 30+: 1969-70 (7) 4 by 35+: 1993-94 (4) 2 by 40+: 1993-94 (2) 1 by 50+: Never
In the last five categories, the Knicks have already tied the franchise record. In all of the seasons that meet the same criteria as the current Knicks, they made the NBA Finals (1970, 1973, 1994).
Consider the following, all of these things have happened in Knicks’ blowouts in the last month:
Worst loss by the Sixers since 2015, worst loss in 480 all-time meetings with the Knicks
Worst loss by the Spurs this season, only loss for the Spurs since late January (14-1)
Tied for the worst home loss by the Nuggets ever (2/2/1998 vs CHI), worst loss of Nikola Jokic’s career, worst Nuggets loss since January 2015
In about 1,000 words, I have, in a way, compared this team to the 1998 Bulls, 1970 Knicks, the 1994 Knicks, and a few others. Surely, all of these comparisons will be received well!
The Dallas Mavericks will seek a fifth straight win against the Toronto Raptors when they visit Scotiabank Arena tonight.
Toronto is a healthy 9.5-point home favorite, but my Mavericks vs. Raptors predictions and NBA picks have the home team struggling to put away Dallas by double digits.
Mavericks vs Raptors prediction
Mavericks vs Raptors best bet: Mavericks +9.5 (-110)
Of the current 12 teams sitting in the Top 6 spots in each conference, the Toronto Raptors are the only ones that don't have a winning record at home (16-16).
The Dallas Mavericks should be the get-right opponent, as they’ve lost six straight and have just two wins in their last 18, but Dallas is 3-1 against the spread against Toronto in the last four meetings.
Injuries could play a factor too, as Cooper Flagg (foot) is questionable, as is Brandon Ingram (illness). Either way, the Raptors are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 at Scotiabank Arena, while Dallas is 4-2 ATS in their last six road games.
Mavericks vs Raptors same-game parlay
RJ Barrett led the Raptors with 25 points in their loss to Minnesota, and he’s grooving right now, hitting 20+ points in four of his last five games.
Khris Middleton has connected on just one moneyball in his last five games, and since leaving Milwaukee, he’s yet to hit from downtown in four games against Toronto.
Mavericks vs Raptors SGP
Mavericks +9.5
RJ Barrett Over 19.5 points
Khris Middleton Under 0.5 threes
Our "from downtown" SGP: All aboard the Klay-Train
Klay Thompson is in one of his best shooting grooves of the season. Coming off a 5-for-11 night from downtown against Boston, he’s now hit at least three triples in five of his last seven games.
And Jakob Poeltl has been Toronto’s leading rebounder in three straight games, but only once has he hit nine rebounds, and he’s yet to reach that mark in four games against Dallas as a Raptor.
Mavericks vs Raptors SGP
Mavericks +9.5
RJ Barrett Over 19.5 points
Khris Middleton Under 0.5 threes
Klay Thompson Over 2.5 threes
Jakob Poeltl Under 8.5 rebounds
Mavericks vs Raptors odds
Spread: Mavericks +9.5 | Raptors -9.5
Moneyline: Mavericks +325 | Raptors -425
Over/Under: Over 229 | Under 229
Mavericks vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Mavericks have lost 14 straight games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Raptors.
How to watch Mavericks vs Raptors
Location
Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
Date
Sunday, March 8, 2026
Tip-off
6:00 p.m. ET
TV
MavsTV, Sportsnet
Mavericks vs Raptors latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
TORONTO, ON - SEPTEMBER 25: Romy Gonzalez #23 of the Boston Red Sox reacts after striking out during the second inning of a game against the Toronto Blue Jays on September 25, 2025 at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I’m not going to pretend I’m a doctor. I’m not to going to act like I know more about Romy Gonzalez’s body than the highly paid and likely excellent medical staff working in Fort Myers and on Ipswitch Street. I’m not here to second guess medical advice — I’m sure there was a very solid reason why “wait it out” made sense. But I will say that I am not remotely surprised by how this has developed. After arriving at Spring Training with a shoulder that was still bothering him after an initial injury that occurred way back in September, Romy Gonzalez is now meeting with an orthopedic surgeon to determine whether surgery is necessary. Even if he he does elect surgery, he doesn’t think he would miss the whole season, but as of now there is absolutely no timetable for his return. (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)
The Romy injury is a big blow to the lineup, particularly against lefties. But it does open up some opportunities. Unfortunately, though, it doesn’t do much to help the outfield/DH logjam, because Masataka Yoshida looks like he’s ready to hit:
If the Red Sox let Masataka Yoshida wear his Team Japan jersey for the whole season, he would break Barry Bonds’ single season home run record by the All Star break. pic.twitter.com/Jf87cN1drJ
One player who is better positioned to take advantage of Romy’s absence, though, is infielder Andruw Monasterio, who is one of four under-the-radar players who could end up making an impact for the Sox in 2026. (Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)
Here’s a guy whose shoulder is definitely not injured. Connelly Early’s fastball is averaging 95.3 MPH so far this spring, after averaging 94 MPH last year. The book on Early has usually been that, while he has a complete arsenal, he doesn’t necessarily have elite stuff. It looks like he’s trying to rectify that. (Christopher Smith, MassLive)
Though after two strong starts in a row — and two starts in a row without issuing a walk — some are now saying that the fifth spot in the rotation is Johan Oviedo’s to lose. (CJ Haddad, MLB.com)
As Patrick so ably reported to you yesterday, the Houston Astros have agreed to a minor league contract with Christian Vazquez with an invitation to Spring Training. Fortunately, he has been working out with team Puerto Rico, so he will not be coming in completely cold and presumably could reasonably build up enough plate appearances to plausibly make the team out of camp. Of course, that brings up the salient question: should he make the team out of camp?
I would point out that Vazquez was likely always on their radar and Dana Brown simply had a price he wanted to stick to. We don’t know know the exact parameters, but the wild suggestions that he could sign for something like four to six million dollars were always ridiculous on their face. Vazquez was always going to be in the Jonah Heim, Gary Sanchez, and Elias Diaz neighborhood of things.
Some of you will remember that we profiled Vazquez with the catchers in our current series. However, I looked at Cesar Salazar based on his big league numbers and we didn’t look at Carlos Perez at all. In this edition, we will look at Vazquez’s big league numbers since 2023 and compare them with the AAA numbers for both Perez and Salazar. I should note that the 2023 numbers for Perez came in Oakland which was nominally a big league team.
This is just a gentle reminder that we are looking at five different statistics on offense. That includes the chase rate, hard hit rate, BABIP, contact rate, and home runs per flyball. We have been looking at these fairly consistently, but I will include the league norms for those metrics below in case you are joining us for the first time.
Chase rate: 30% league average
Hard hit rate: 35% league average
BABIP: .300 league average
Contact: 75 percent league average
HR/FB: 10 percent league average
Carlos Perez
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
2023
28.8
39.4
.256
80.8
11.1
2024
28.4
32.4
.258
82.1
18.5
2025
27.3
36.1
.290
81.4
18.4
Aggregate
28.2
36.0
.271
81.4
15.9
There is one significant difference between Perez and the other two. The home run rates are significantly higher and he did club 27 home runs two seasons in a row at the AAA level. He has hit 20 or more home runs several times since the 2021 season in the minors. Even the 2023 rate (which came in Oakland) is significantly better than what the other two have done. So, if we assume he plays 40 games, how many extra dingers does this end up translating into?
Catcher BABIP is an interesting conversation itself. If the league average is ,300 then that would include all positions and some where the BABIP is probably naturally above .300. Catchers aren’t beating out infield singles as a general rule, so it makes perfect sense for their BABIP to dip to the .270 or .280 range naturally. Otherwise, Perez looks like an average big league hitter across the board. Maybe that’s not exciting, but getting average major league hitters on your bench can be exciting.
On the other hand, Perez has spent parts of five seasons in the big leagues as a catcher. He was significantly above average defensively back in 2015. Unfortunately, he was below average in 2018 and 2023 (his last two stints) according to both defensive runs saved and fielding run value. A vote for Perez is a vote for the bat. Given what the other two have going on, that might not be the craziest bet.
Cesar Salazar
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
2023
25.6
21.1
.223
78.3
4.3
2024
24.0
21.7
.274
83.8
9,4
2025
25.3
28.9
.237
80.1
11.1
Aggregate
25.0
23.9
.241
80.7
8.3
It’s hard not to like a guy like Salazar. He probably gets about as much out of what he has as anyone has any right to do. When you consider the fact that there are 780 big league players we could then take that number and multiply by five to get the total number of players in affiliated baseball. Then, you take that number and probably multiple it two or three times to include Japan, Korea, Mexico, Australia, and Cuba. Then, you have the independent leagues. It would probably be fair to guess that there are around five or six thousands players being paid to play baseball around the world. That might be a conservative estimate.
Maybe Salazar is one of the top 1000 players in the world. That’s actually an accomplishment even if he never sticks in the big leagues. He doesn’t chase. He doesn’t swing and miss often. He just doesn’t hit the ball hard and he doesn’t have power. If you add in the fact that he does not have speed as a catcher then you see what we are up against. Soft contact from slow runners is not a recipe for a good BABIP. Add in very little extra base power and I’m not sure where the offense is going to come from.
He has been more or less a neutral defender at the big league level in minimal innings, but comes with a reputation of a good receiver. You did have the dust up with Framber Valdez last season, so there is some question over whether he has the cache to work with veteran pitchers. Simply put, you have to be over the moon about his defense in order to accept the lack of offensive production.
Christian Vazquez
Chase
Hardhit
BABIP
Contact
HR/FB
2023
33.2
32.8
.279
75.5
7.2
2024
33.5
36.6
.257
81.7
7.5
2025
25.3
27.4
.214
84.6
4.1
Aggregate
30.7
32.3
.250
80.6
6.2
I’m probably repeating myself from the last time I profiled Vazquez, but the ultimate question is whether he bounces back to the aggregate or continues to rot. In general, I like the choices he seems to have made to react to his aging. He swings at fewer balls outside the zone and makes more contact. I have to believe that is a conscious choice and one that could mask some of the decline in hard hit ball rate and home run rate.
The good news is that even with the low hard hit rate, that BABIP was ridiculously low last season. I think the aggregate in BABIP is actually a decent target and give him 35 points on his batting average and he would have hit about .225. No one would confuse that with Josh Gibson, Johnny Bench, or even Joe Mauer, but for a backup catcher that also produced good fielding numbers, that would be more than reasonable.
The question at backup catcher wss never about whether either Perez or Vazquez (or anyone else) was better than Salazar. That was likely always a given. The question was always how much more you would have to pay for marginal improvement? I wrote an earlier piece about preferring to stand pat because the costs being thrown around sounded ridiculous. A Christian Vazquez at or near veteran minimum seems like a reasonable cost to pay for a marginal upgrade. Assuming he is in shape, he would seem to be the preferred choice, but we will have to see how it all plays out.
Earlier this week, NBA.com released an article talking about this season’s MVP race. Obviously, the race is headlined with names like Nuggets center Nikola Jokic and Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous Alexander, but another player who many fans who aren’t as tuned in to the NBA would not expect has emerged onto the list. That player is Kevin Durant. Durant comes in this week at ninth behind Shai Gilgeous Alexander, Nikola Jokic, Cade Cunningham, Victor Wembenyama, Jaylen Brown, Luka Doncic, and Donovan Mitchell.
Naturally, Durant deserves praise for his prowess as one of the game’s all-time scorers, but he also deserves praise for his ability to play at a high level even at 37. Even though players like LeBron and Curry, who are also having successful seasons, and have multiple MVPS aren’t even on Durant’s level this year.
The four-time scoring champion is currently in the top ten with a 51% overall and 40.1% 3-point shooting percentage. He continues to lead double-teams. He has only missed four games. Additionally, he has the Houston Rockets comfortably above the sixth-place cutoff and in the middle of the Western Conference playoff hunt.
The important statistic is that Durant, who is currently in his 18th season, has averaged at least 26 points each season for each of the teams he has played for, including the Thunder, Warriors, Nets, Suns, and now the Rockets. His first season in Seattle, which naturally led to a relocation to Oklahoma City the following season, was the only other occasion in his career that he failed to average 25 points per game. Additionally, he averages 51% for the Rockets and has made at least half of his shots in a season for every franchise. He is scoring with incredible efficiency. Additonally even though the Rockets are undefeated without Kevin Durant playing its a small sample size and against lesser opponents in the Indiana Pacers, Phoenix Suns, and Golden State Warriors.
Obviously, Durant winning MVP is far from likely, but there’s no debate that he has been integral to the Rockets this season.
SYDNEY (AP) — South Korea edged host Australia for top spot in Group A at the Women’s Asian Cup on goal difference after a 3-3 draw Sunday in front of a tournament-record crowd at Sydney’s Stadium Australia.
Philippines maintained a chance of advancing to the quarterfinals with a 2-0 win over Iran in another Group A match that kicked off simultaneously in wet conditions at Gold Coast Stadium.
The Iranian women’s team exited the tournament on three losses and faces a return to a country embroiled in war. Organizers have not announced details for Iran's departure from Australia.
The top two teams in each of the three groups advance to the quarterfinals along with the two best third-place teams, meaning Philippines will have to sweat on other results after placing third in Group A.
South Korea will play the third-place team from either Group B or Group C in the quarterfinals, while Australia will have to face either defending champion China or three-time champion North Korea.
Australia's late goal not quite enough
Australia twice rallied from a goal down in front of a crowd of 60,279, with Chelsea forward Sam Kerr playing a key role and with Alanna Kennedy scoring twice, including the late equalizer in stoppage time. Both teams finished unbeaten in the group, but 2022 finalist South Korea finished with a goal difference one better than Australia's.
The crowd surpassed the attendance of 44,379 at Australia's opening game aganist Philippines in Perth on March 1, which was a Women's Asian Cup record.
Kerr and Caitlin Foord both missed scoring chances for Australia before South Korea opened with a counter-attacking goal in the 13th minute after Jeon Yu-gyeong outpaced the defense and set up Mun Eun-ju for the score.
Kenney made it 1-1 in the 32nd after lead-in work from Foord and Mary Fowler and Kerr gave Australia a 2-1 lead going into halftime with Kerr scoring from close range just before the break.
Kim Shin-ji and Kang Chae-rim came on as substitutes in the second half and had a quick impact, giving South Korea a 3-2 lead. Kim Shin-ji's penalty kick made it 2-2 in the 53rd and she delivered the cross for Kang's goal four minutes later.
Kennedy's goal eight minutes into stoppage time ensured Australia finished unbeaten, albeit not entirely happy with the result.
“We all know we needed to win tonight, so it felt like a loss to be fair,” Kerr said.
South Korea coach Shin Sang-Woo felt like his team should have won.
“I’d like to say thank you to all of my players because they did not give up and gave 100% to the end. I slightly feel sorry that we couldn’t end this game with three points, but I’m still delighted with the first goal to be winner of this group.”
Philippines still in contention
Philippines scored a goal in each half in a tough encounter against the Iranian women's team to clinch third place and maintain a chance of progressing.
Sara Didar had an early chance for Iran but her strike in the sixth minute was comfortably saved by goalkeeper Olivia McDaniel.
At the other end, 38-year-old Iran goalkeeper Raha Yazdani kept it level with three saves in four minutes but Philippines opened the scoring in the 29th when Sara Eggesvik had a goal awarded after a VAR review.
Yazdani made three more crucial saves late in the first half to keep it to 1-0 at the break and it took until the 82nd minute before substitute Chandler McDaniel fired in the goal to give Philippines a two-goal buffer.
State of play
In Group B, defending champion China and three-time winner North Korea are into the quarterfinals after their second consecutive wins. On Monday, North Korea plays China in a match that will decide top spot, while Bangladesh takes on Uzbekistan.
In Group C, two-time champion Japan leads with six points following an 11-0 win over India in Perth on Saturday. Japan will next face Vietnam, which lost 1-0 to Taiwan on Saturday after opening with a 2-1 win over India.
HOUSTON, TX - MARCH 07: Kyle Schwarber #12 of Team USA rounds the bases after hitting a two-run home run in the fifth inning during the 2026 World Baseball Classic Pool B game presented by Capital One between Team Great Britain and Team USA at Daikin Park on Saturday, March 7, 2026 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Rob Tringali/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
We’ve got another day of WBC baseball and this one wasn’t without it’s thrills.
Japan 8, Korea 6
Ho hum, another game for Japan, another home run for Shohei Ohtani.
Except this time, it wasn’t Ohtani that was the star for Japan. That would be Seiya Suzuki, who homered twice to help Japan take a game was pretty well played from both teams.
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 7, 2026
Korea’s offense was actually clicking on a few cylinders and gave Japan a scare, but Samurai is just too deep.
Canada 8, Colombia 2
Canada has a sneaky good team put together that might be able to do a little damage. They rode an Owen Cassie home run and a two hit, two RBI day from Abraham Toro to a victory over Colombia.
Canada’s offense is legit. If they can get some pitching to back it up, particularly if their bullpen can be effective, don’t be surprised if they win their pool and maybe a quarterfinal game.
Netherlands 4, Nicaragua 3
This one was a thriller. Nicaragua, which has yet to ever have a win in the Classic, were down to needing their last out to secure that first victory. They had gotten that lead thanks to a two-run home run from Jeter Downs that broke a 1-1 tie. However, with those two outs, Netherlands put two runners on for Ozzie Albies. Albies got a first pitch fastball and…
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 7, 2026
Fun game to watch.
Italy 8, Brazil 0
Italy began their tournament play with a thumping of a Brazilian team that is simply overmatched in any game they play. The Italians were led by Dante Nori, who had two home runs.
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 7, 2026
That’s a rather nice swing from the Phillies’ prospect. Might we be seeing a breakout campaign begin right before our eyes?
Puerto Rico 4, Panama 3 (10 innings)
Now, this was another thriller that was probably missed thanks to the U.S. playing around the same time. Panama had a lead in the bottom of the ninth, but blew it thanks to a bases loaded walk to Willi Castro. In the tenth, the Panamanians took the lead when Jose Caballero singled in the ghost runner on second, but they needed to get three outs themselves.
It was not to be.
DARELL HERNAIZ HITS A WALK-OFF HOME RUN TO WIN IT FOR PUERTO RICO IN EXTRAS!!! 🇵🇷 pic.twitter.com/A9fnyybeYD
Venezuela continued to show an all around offensive thunder by beating Israel 11-3. Luis Arraez was the hitting star of the night, going 4-5 with two doubles and two home runs, driving in five to pace the Venezuelans. They are looking dangerous yet again.
United States 9, Great Britain 1
Tarik Skubal gave up a first pitch home run to someone named Nate Eaton, but that was the only offensive production the Brits would have. The American pitching simply overwhelmed the opposition while their own offense slowly creaked the life as the game when on. They were sparked by Kyle Schwarber.
— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 8, 2026
That should wrap up that pool, I think.
Chinese Taipei 5, Korea 4 (10 innings)
Another extra inning thriller, Chinese Taipei put their hat into the ring as the possible second seed in their pool by taking a game from Korea thanks to a suicide squeeze in the 10th inning. Fundamentals are critical, folks.
Australia stayed with defending World Baseball Classic champion Japan step for step for more than six innings during their Sunday pool play clash.
Masataka Yoshida changed that with one swing.
Yoshida, the Red Sox outfielder/designated hitter, hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the seventh inning to wipe out a one-run deficit and ultimately help Japan to a narrow 4-3 win.
Japan scored two more runs in the eighth to provide some breathing room, which proved important when Australia designated hitter Alex Hall AND first baseman Rixon Wingrove blasted solo homers in the ninth.
Australia matched zeroes with Japan for five innings before breaking through with the game's first run in the sixth.
Center fielder Aaron Whitefield, who had three of Australia's six hits, was almost single-handedly responsible for that run. Whitefield hit one-out double in the sixth off Japan reliever Chihiro Sumida, then he stole third and scored after a bad throw by Japan catcher Kenya Wakatsuki. It gave Australia a 1-0 lead, which it held going into the bottom of the seventh.
The starting pitchers were stellar with Tomoyuki Sugano leading Japan by working four scoreless innings with two hits and two strikeouts. Australia starter Connor MacDonald blanked Japan on one hit over three innings with one strikeout.
Australia could still advance to the next round by beating Korea on Monday (6 a.m. ET. on FS1).
Shohei Ohtani stats today
For the first time in this WBC, Shohei Ohtani did not leave the yard. He didn't even have a hit.
Ohtani wound up 0-for-3 with two walks, the last of which was intentional in the eighth inning.
Ohtani led off the bottom of the first inning with a groundout to second base, and he ended the second inning with a hard lineout to center field. Ohtani came up to the plate in the bottom of the fourth with the bases loaded and two outs, and he had a 2-2 count when his teammate Shugo Maki was picked off second base by Australia catcher Robbie Perkins to end the inning. Ohtani wound up lining out to right to start the fifth.
Ohtani won his fourth MVP award in 2025 with a career-high 55 home runs and returned to the mound after only hitting in 2024, leading the Dodgers to a second consecutive World Series title.
Three hours and 13 minutesafter the biggest comeback win of the season for Missouri baseball, Josh McDevitt provided the Tigers with what they had been lacking for the first two games of the series in their 7-0 series-clinching victory over UIC. Quality starting pitching.
In his previous three outings this season, McDevitt has given up six hits combined. He had an ERA of 3.21 coming into Saturday. He’s struck out 19 batters and consistently finished his outings around the pitch mark of the mid 80’s. The one problem? He’s walked 16 batters this season.
McDevitt’s fourth start of the season at Taylor Stadium saw him tie his career-high in strikeouts with seven, dousing the Flames despite walking six batters. He worked his way out of two jams in the third and fifth innings, in which UIC left a combined five runners on base.
“I think they gotta get in and do some things mechanically with him this week, before we get into conference play,” Jackson said. “Really missing to the glove side, and yanking a lot of fastballs, high counts to guys, walks that we’re not accustomed to seeing him doing. Coach Drew, he’s gotta get in there with him and kind of try to figure that out a little bit, because it’s really good stuff — a good three‑pitch mix, very, very competitive — but we’re putting ourselves in situations that we shouldn’t be putting ourselves in.”
The final result ended with two five shutout innings for McDevitt, two hits allowed by the Tigers staff, and the first shutout victory for Missouri since Mar. 7, 2023, a 6-0 victory over Western Illinois. It also marked the 11th straight victory for the black and gold.
Perhaps UIC was still deflated after the Tigers completed their massive comeback win less than an hour before; even so, the Missouri offense came out with a purpose. The first inning saw Macon open the game how he likes to, a lead-off hustle double, his seventh of the season, extending his hit streak to 14 games.
Jase Woita followed with an RBI single to left, and Cameron Benson added another run with a sharp base hit to make it 2–0 before UIC recorded its second out of the first inning.
Benson capped off the Tigers’ 12-run comeback against UIC, and just like the rest of the offense, he kept continuing to pick up right where he left off. Missouri, already up 4-0 in the top half of the fifth, Benson cushioned the driver’s seat, cracking a two-run shot over the right field fence. The first two homers of his season came in one day, both 377 feet apiece.
“Cam is capable of doing whatever he wants to do on a baseball field,” head coach Kerrick Jackson said. “He’s finally coming into his own and realizing that, and it’s fun to watch.”
Missouri wasn’t done. Utility man Jamal George followed with a double down the right‑field line, driving in another run to make it 7–0 in the fifth and effectively put the game out of reach.
Relievers Isaiah Salas, Keyler Gonzalez, and Dane Bjorn combined to finish the final four innings, allowing only three hits and striking out four. Gonzalez, making his Mizzou debut, tossed a clean eighth inning with his first strikeout as a Tiger.
“You’re seeing a lot of freshmen come out in big situations and compete their tails off,” Jackson said. “High leverage is high leverage, and they’re getting valuable experience.”
The Tigers have now thrown 15 straight scoreless innings and improved to 13–2 — their best start since the 2017 team opened 20–1.
“We just needed to come out and throw punches,” Jackson said. “If we play our baseball, we’ll be in a great situation.”
SAN JUAN, PUERTO RICO - MARCH 07: Darell Hernaiz #23 of Team Puerto Rico celebrates with teammates after hitting a walk-off solo home run against Team Panama during the tenth inning at Hiram Bithorn Stadium on March 07, 2026 in San Juan, Puerto Rico. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We have our first walk off of the 2026 WBC! Athletics infielder Darell Hernaiz smacked a two-out home run for Puerto Rico to walk off Panama in ten innings, the first walk-off home run in tournament history. USA and Venezuela maintained their perfect starts to the tournament with resounding wins over Great Britain and Israel, respectively. Let’s see how it all shook out.
Pool A: Puerto Rico (2-0) 4, Panama (0-2) 3
The starting pitchers opened this rain-delayed game in San Juan with quite a duel, Ariel Jurado of Panama getting the upper hand with his five scoreless innings allowing three hits and no walks with five strikeouts over Puerto Rico’s Eduardo Rivera, who also struck out five in his 4.1 innings of one-run ball. Panama broke the seal in the fifth, Jonathan Araúz reaching with one out on a hit-by-pitch and scoring on a Christian Bethancourt double, himself scoring as Luis Castillo followed with a double of his own.
Puerto Rico cut that deficit in half in the sixth on a sac fly by Nolan Aranado with the bases loaded after Bryan Torres and Willi Castro singled and Heliot Ramos was hit by a pitch. Then in the bottom of the ninth, Eddie Rosario walked, Martín Maldonado singled, and Matthew Lugo walked to again to load the bases, allowing Castro to draw the game-tying free pass to send the game to extra innings.
Panama immediately put the pressure on in extras, a sac bunt advancing the automatic runner to third, allowing him to score the go-ahead run on a José Caballero single. However, after stealing second, the Yankees’ speedster and back-to-back AL stolen base leader was thrown out at the plate by Carlos Cortes on a Leonardo Bernal single.
Buoyed by that play to end the top-half, Puerto Rico put the game to bed in the bottom of the tenth. Luis Vázquez singled to lead off and advance the automatic runner to second and again it was Cortes’ turn to come through, his ground ball double play plating the tying run. Up stepped A’s infielder Darell Hernaiz with two outs to yank the first walk-off home run in WBC history just fair inside the left field foul pole.
It was a hit parade for Venezuela in Miami, with 14 base knocks against the hapless Israel pitching staff. They set the tone scoring four in the first and never took their foot off the gas pedal from there. Luis Arraez opened the scoring with a double after Ronald Acuña drew a leadoff walk, the former coming around to score on a Salvador Perez single. Eugenio Suárez then crushed a two-run bomb, and already you could sense that this could be a blowout.
From that point forward, this became the Luis Arraez game. Known almost to a fault as a slap singles hitter, the newly-minted Giant brought his slug to the ballpark today. To go along with his first inning RBI double, Arraez lined a solo home run to right in the fifth before smacking a three-run bomb to almost exactly the same spot as part of Venezuela’s five-run sixth, Maikel Garcia also chipping in with a two-run single with the bases loaded earlier in the frame.
Venezuela’s dominant offensive display was matched by that of their starting pitcher, Enmanuel De Jesus setting the tournament high water mark with eight strikeouts in his five innings of one-run ball. RJ Schreck and Harrison Bader hit solo home runs for Israel, but the game was already well in hand for Venezuela at that point.
Pool B: United States (2-0) 9, Great Britain (0-2) 1
It was a slow start for Team USA despite having the best pitcher on the planet on the mound, but the bats broke out once they dug into Great Britain’s bullpen. Tarik Skubal declared prior to the tournament that he would only make one start, and it followed an eerily similar trajectory to that of Logan Webb the night prior. The two-tim defending AL Cy Young winner surrendered a leadoff home run to Nate Easton on the very first pitch of the game, but was nigh-on untouchable from that point forward. He finished his outing having given up two hits and no walks with five strikeouts, setting the tone for the rest of the game as he, Clay Holmes, David Bednar, Griffin Jax, and Brad Keller combined to strike out 17 British hitters.
The United States offense was silent for the first four innings before exploding for five in the fifth, following the pattern from their tournament opener of scoring in bunches. Ernie Clement reached on a one-out throwing error and scored the tying run on a wild pitch after a Pete Crow-Armstrong double advanced him to third. Following up on his two-hit day on Friday, Kyle Schwarber put the USA on top with a booming two-run blast to right, Gunnar Henderson then tacking on a further pair of runs with a two-out single with the bases loaded after Alex Bregman doubled, Bryce Harper was plunked, and Will Smith walked — part of a 4-for-5 performance from the Orioles shortstop in the lineup in place of Bobby Witt Jr.
In their game against Brazil, the US relied on their patience to get the job done, drawing an astonishing 17 walks. With the Great Britain pitcher much less afraid to challenge their daunting lineup in the strike zone, the US had to shift gears to more of a batted ball approach to get the job done. They collected three more insurance runs in the sixth, initially loading the bases with no outs on a Clement leadoff single and walks by Schwarber and PCA. Bregman hit a sac fly and Aaron Judge and Bryce Harper lined RBI singles to put the game to bed, Bregman wrapping up the scoring with his second sac fly an inning later. Brad Keller struck out Jazz Chisholm Jr. to end the contest, the Yankees second baseman going 0-for-4 with four strikeouts to earn the dreaded golden sombrero.
Pool C: Chinese Taipei (2-2) 5, South Korea (1-2) 4
Chinese Taipei have bounced back valiantly from getting manhandled in their first two games of the tournament, scrapping out an extra-innings victory to finish at an admirable 2-2 in pool play. The long ball was the difference maker of this contest, seven of the nine combined runs coming via the home run.
2023 was the last time that Hyun Jin Ryu last pitched in MLB, the 38 year old now plying his trade for the Hanwha Eagles of KBO, but he showed he’s still got it with three innings of one-run ball for South Korea. The only damage against him was the opening run of the contest, a leadoff home run from Yu Chang in the second. South Korea responded in the fifth, a run-scoring double play ground ball from Shay Whitcomb plating the tying run after Hyun Min Ahn drew a leadoff walk and advanced to third on a Bo Gyeong Moon single.
Tsung-Che Cheng reclaimed the lead for Chinese Taipei with a home run to leadoff the second, but it was immediately erased in the bottom half, Do Yeong Kim slugging a two-run blast to grab the lead for South Korea after Dong Won Park drew a leadoff walk. That set Stuart Fairchild up for his second clutch home run in as many nights, following up his grand slam on Friday with the go-ahead two-run homer in the eighth. However, Do Yeong Kim replied with an RBI double in the bottom half to send the game to extras.
Home runs pay have powered most of the scoring, but this game was won in the most small ball way possible, Chinese Taipei plating the automatic runner in the top of the tenth with consecutive sacrifice bunts. It looked like South Korea would follow suit in the bottom half, but Ju Won Kim was thrown out at home on a soft grounder to preserve Chinese Taipei’s 5-4 victory.
After back-to-back days with eight games, today and tomorrow will only feature seven as we wrap up pool play. As expected, the US and Japan are the early frontrunners with two wins through two, although Puerto Rico, Venezuela, and Australia are more than holding their own with perfect records as well. Here’s the slate for today:
Australia vs. Japan (Pool C) Pitching matchup: RHP Connor MacDonald vs. RHP Tomoyuki Sugano Time: 6:00 a.m. ET TV: FS1 Venue: Tokyo Dome, Tokyo, Japan
Colombia vs. Cuba (Pool A) Pitching matchup: RHP Luis Patiño vs. RHP Denny Larrondo Time: 12:00 p.m. ET TV: FS2 Venue: Hiram Bithorn Stadium, San Juan, PR
Dominican Republic vs. Netherlands (Pool D) Pitching matchup: RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Arij Fransen Time: 12:00 p.m. ET TV: Fox Venue: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
Great Britain vs. Italy (Pool B) Pitching matchup: TBD vs. RHP Dylan DeLucia Time: 1:00 p.m. ET TV: Tubi Venue: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Israel vs. Nicaragua (Pool D) Pitching matchup: RHP Dan Kremer vs. RHP Carlos Rodriguez Time: 7:00 p.m. ET TV: Tubi Venue: loanDepot park, Miami, FL
Panama vs. Canada (Pool A) Pitching matchup: TBD vs. RHP Jameson Taillon Time: 7:00 p.m. ET TV: FS2 Venue: Hiram Bithorn Stadium, San Juan, PR
Brazil vs. Mexico (Pool B) Pitching matchup: RHP Eric Pardinho vs. RHP Taijuan Walker Time: 8:00 p.m. ET TV: FS1 Venue: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Feb 16, 2026; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals hall of fame Ozzie Smith (middle) talks with infielders Masyn Winn (0) and JJ Wetherholt (77) during spring training workouts at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images | Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images
This could be a long article made short with the simple word: yes. I truly believe we are seeing the middle infield that will be standing at Busch Stadium for the foreseeable future. But Doc probably would not be happy if my write up just ended there. So here we go.
The St. Louis Cardinals have their middle infield of the future
For those who have been checking in on my work, first off, thank you. Secondly, you know that I am enamored with the future potential of shortstop Masyn Winn. He will turn 24 later this month and is just scratching the surface for what I hope to see flying around short for the next 8+ years.
Yes, I know the offense needs to show some progress, but even if he is unable to reach my lofty annual 20 homer/20 stolen base floor prediction, his defense is just so darn good that I will settle for a plain old 100 wRC+ with Platinum Glove level performance one of the hardest positions on the field. Call me a hypocrite because when I talked about Ivan Herrera, I basically said the opposite as I am saying for Winn. Herrera can play mediocre defense behind the plate and put up a 130 wRC+ and I will forgive a 20% caught stealing rate with a few passed balls in a growth season. For Winn, though, his athleticism and overall talent at short will allow him to be an above-average major league contributor for a long time, even if the bat does not fully progress, even though I have confidence it will.
In exactly 1200 at-bats, Winn has a .252 average and .680 OPS, which measures him as a 91 wRC+ for his career. On FanGraphs, he has accumulated a 6.3 fWAR in his 2+ years in the bigs, but much of that is due to his incredible abilities at shortstop. I sorted FanGraphs’ leaderboard for shortstop value to just include each of Winn’s last two seasons and his 7.2 fWAR (subtracting his negative debut cup of coffee) puts him as the 11th-best shortstop in baseball. His defense ranks second in MLB behind Bobby Witt, Jr., but his offensive production sits at 31st. Even with a mediocre couple of years with the bat, Winn is making a case to be a top 10 player at the position, a distinction I have already given him.
Masyn Winn’s 2024 season was an exciting glimpse into the future as he put up a 104 wRC+ with 15 homers and 11 stolen bases with top 10 defensive value. He did that while primarily hitting leadoff, a spot in the order that may not be the best fit for Winn’s skillset. Because of that great year, the expectations were high for Winn as he entered his second full season and had built a consistent track record of success in the minors. Unfortunately, his production took a step back in some ways while staying similar in other aspects.
We will never know and Winn will likely never admit to how much injuries played a factor in his 2025 season, as he only played 129 games after missing time with back and knee issues before eventually going under the knife to repair his meniscus once the season was deemed over. All told, Winn ended up with a 91 wRC+ with just nine homers and nine stolen bases, but took home his first Gold Glove award. Assuming Winn is back to full strength like he claims, get me back on the 20/20 watch. He surpassed the 20 stolen base mark in each of his first two pro seasons, including swiping 43 bags in 2022, and hit 18 homers with a .288 average and 17 swipes before he was called up for the end of the 2023 season. It is because of that consistent showing, yes I know it was the minor leagues, that my hopes for Winn’s bat are still high. With a team full of youngsters all looking to make an impact on the roster, I could see Winn finding another level in his game and finally be recognized nationally as one of the best all-around shortstops in the game. ZiPs and the other projection sites predict a similar season for Winn in 2026, but with improved health and another year of offensive maturity, I will say I think the 12 homer prediction we see from ZiPS is going to be low.
Over across the bag to Winn’s expected double play partner. Maybe you’ve heard of him: JJ Wetherholt. Before I gush over Wetherholt’s expected season and career, let us first look back at what second base provided the Cardinals last year. Sorry to bring it up as we are finally starting to move past it, but Brendan Donovan was the primary second baseman last year and put up his typical Donnie season, finishing as the 5th-best second baseman in baseball with a 3.0 fWAR while playing the keystone. His shift to second from his usual utility role provided some stability at the position that saw him, Nolan Gorman, Jose Fermin, Thomas Saggese, and of course Pedro Pages see time there. But now, that position belongs to JJ Wetherholt and that’s all there is to it. Everyone in Cardinal Nation is excited for his arrival, even Kareem Haq. Kareem joined us on Redbird Rundown this past week to partake in a Prospect Draft, and even though he scooped up Rainiel Rodriguez with the first overall pick, he is still as pumped to see JJ in St. Louis as the rest of us.
So why the excitement? For one, he will probably take the leadoff spot away from Winn and allow the shortstop to find a place in the lineup that fits his aggressive, yet contact-oriented approach. We have seen how Wetherholt approaches his at-bats this spring (yes, it is still spring) and his .579 OBP shows he knows the strike zone, but his homer and four RBIs also means he knows when to attack. While he has shown that patience, I want to be wary of being grouped into Lars Nootbaar territory, where Noot was so patient he rarely swung at pitches he should hit over the mountains. Wetherholt’s Savant page shows he does have that level of selectivity, but the infielder’s K-rate is better than the outfielder’s.
We know all of Wetherholt’s accolades and expectations, so I won’t spend my time (but since you’re also here, our time) rehashing all of that. Basically, JJ is major league ready and the Arenado and Donovan trades cemented his spot on the Opening Day roster. The projection systems predict that Wetherholt will hit a little bit of a snag during his first big league season, with ZiPS being the most optimistic with a .254 batting average, 11 homers, 13 stolen bases which equates to a 103 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR. By that last measure, Wetherholt would be a near-even replacement for Donnie at second. I’m sure it is just my Cardinals-colored glasses talking, but if Wetherholt sticks in the majors for 130+ games this season, I would hope his actual numbers are a tick better across the board than the prediction.
To round this week’s position group up, I wanted to do a quick view of who could fill in if either of these two missed extended time or if Wetherholt struggled to the point a demotion was necessary. One of the actual competitions we are seeing this spring is for a spot on the major league bench. With Ivan Herrera continuing to get catcher reps, the Cardinals may very well roll with three catchers on the big league roster with Pedro Pages and Yohel Pozo offering support. Even if Herrera were to move out from behind the plate, that moves him to a DH role so that trio would remain the same, just in a different capacity. Assuming Lars Nootbaar is going to start on the IL, the Cardinals still need to find a left fielder (preview to next week) who can start multiple times a week. Because of this, backup infield options Thomas Saggese and Jose Fermin have been working in the outfield to gain the upperhand and earn a spot.
Each of those guys can play around the infield and have shown the athleticism to handle those spots with at least average defensive abilities. Depending on what Oli Marmol wants out of his bench could determine who takes the opening. Of the two, Saggese is projected to be the more complete hitter with the former Texas League MVP popping double-digit homers in every professional season so far with Fermin maxing out with eight home runs. Fermin is the quicker athlete, though, with the Dominican notching 20 stolen bases in three different seasons. Personally, I would like Saggese to push for the Opening Day roster and maybe even give Nathan Church (glimpse to next week again) a run for the left field job. Saggese is the younger of the two and the higher profile prospect, so in a season of opportunity, I would like Saggese to get the call to see if he can tap into some of that power he flashed in the minors.
If (when) both Masyn Winn and JJ Wetherholt make their presence known at the national level, it creates a much more interesting roster construction for the future at other positions. With Nolan Gorman at third and Alec Burleson at first, the spots for Saggese and Fermin run thin for the long-term future with the organization. Of course, that means that the incumbents stay healthy, consistent, and even improve to work their way into an extension. Either way, the 2026 season is going to be an exciting one to watch, even if the wins don’t show up early and often in the standings.
SELF PROMO OF THE WEEK
Random Cardinal of the Week returns to its roots with one of the most underrated and/or unknown player on the 2005 and 2006 teams. Check out my Twitter to see how I actually have some experience and Six Degrees of Separation with this week’s featured player.
Redbird Rundown had Kareem last week and kept the prospect conversation going this week with the infamous Redbird Farmhands. We talked about the Oli Marmol extension before discussing some offensive camp battles.
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