DETROIT, MI - APRIL 23: Spencer Torkelson #20 of the Detroit Tigers celebrates with teammates at home plate after hitting a walk-off home run in the ninth inning during the game between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on Thursday, April 23, 2026 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Izzy Rincon/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Yankees captured a good win on Thursday against the Red Sox. Cam Schlittler looked great once again, pitching eight innings, and a rally in the seventh on the backs of Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge propelled them to victory. Although the schedule was light around the American League, there were still a couple of games to keep tabs on, so let’s see how it played out.
Detroit Tigers (14-12) 5, Milwaukee Brewers (13-11) 4
In a back-and-forth affair, the Tigers took home a dramatic win on Thursday. In their second consecutive win over the Brewers, Detroit coasted on a solid Tarik Skubal effort in the beginning, before timely hitting late in the game sealed things.
They jumped out to an early lead too, as in the first inning Riley Greene belted a two-run shot to put his guys ahead with just his second long ball of the season.
From there, outside of an RBI double for Gary Sánchez, it was mostly smooth sailing for Skubal and the Tigers. Through the lefty’s first six innings of work, he had allowed just one earned run. In the seventh, however, the two-time Cy Young winner began to run into some trouble. After a pair of singles opened that inning for Milwaukee, a Blake Perkins double tied things up at three, just before David Hamilton’s knock suddenly put them up 4-3.
After spending nearly the entire game in the driver’s seat, the Tigers were now in need of a comeback. Of all people, it was pinch-hitter Jahmai Jones that came through in the clutch to tie things up once again.
With the game knotted up at four, these Central teams headed into the ninth with plenty of potential for drama. Trouble lurked as the Brewers had a couple of runners on with one out, but Detroit’s Brant Hurter (more like rally-hurter, huh?) induced a clutch inning-ending double play to silence the threat.
With a chance to win it the easy way in the ninth, the Tigers cashed in early, as with one out, Spencer Torkelson sent the Motor City fans home happy with a line-drive walk-off homer into the left field seats.
The Rangers coasted to an easy win on Thursday, riding on some early offense and a vintage Jacob deGrom effort on the mound.
The veteran righty and two-time Cy Young Award winner looked sharp for Texas in his fifth start of the season. Across 5.2 innings of work against the Pirates, deGrom allowed just one run on five hits and a walk, racking up an impressive 10 strikeouts along the way.
After a pair of scoreless innings on both sides, the Rangers broke through in the third inning in rather interesting fashion. With Josh Jung on base after a single, Evan Carter circled the bases the old-fashioned way, benefitting from a funky kick in the outfield for an instide-the-park home run.
The exhilarating lap around the bags had them up 2-0, and a Joc Pederson RBI made it three in the next inning. Later in the fourth, Corey Seager broke this one wide open with a towering three-run blast down the right field line to put his Rangers ahead 6-0.
With a sizeable lead in tow, it was smooth-sailing for the Rangers. Oneil Cruz pitched in with a solo homer to get the Pirates on the board, but it wouldn’t be nearly enough. The win puts Texas back above .500 at 13-12.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 22: Nick Kurtz #16 of the Athletics celebrates after scoring during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 22, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jack Compton/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Morning everyone!
Ready for a new series? After taking two of three in Seattle the A’s had an off day to travel to Texas where they’re set to take on the Rangers for three games this weekend. Texas and the Athletics are tied atop the division at 13-12 each. These two squads just saw each other last week when they split a four-game series. One of these two teams will be leading the division by the end of the weekend.
Tonight’s starter for the A’s will be veteran Luis Severino. The Athletics’ Opening Night starter has been up and down over the first month of the season, and more down than up in recent outings. The A’s need more from their expensive staff leader as his 6.20 ERA is way below the expectations this team has for him. Texas will counter Severino with their own veteran right-hander in Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi was pitching like an ace last season before injuries sapped most of his campaign, and it seems that he hasn’t quite gotten back to where he was at that point. Entering tonight’s contest the 36-year-old will carry a 5.06 ERA. It’s fair to expect a lot of runs in the first game of the series.
Saturday evening’s contest features left-hander Jeffrey Springs going up against another lefty in MacKenzie Gore. Springs has been the unquestioned best pitcher for the Athletics over the first month of the season, though he’s coming off a disastrous outing that saw him allow seven earned runs. That was almost double what he’d allowed all year up to that point, and it shot his ERA up from 1.46 to the 3.34 mark he’ll bring into Saturday’s contest. Gore meanwhile is coming into Saturday’s game on a similar trajectory as Springs: a solid start, and most recently had his worst start of the young season. Expect a righty-heavy lineup for this game.
And finally, the series wraps up on Sunday afternoon with a matchup between young right-handers J.T. Ginn and Kumar Rocker. Ginn has been solid in each of his first three starts so far, pitching into the sixth inning in his previous two outings. The team would love to see more of that and Ginn would certainly like to further solidify his spot in the starting rotation. Rocker meanwhile is quietly off to a solid start to his season for the Rangers, pitching to a 3.48 in the early going. This could end up being the rubber match and it’ll feature two of these organizations’ better pitching prospects. The future is here guys.
First pitch tonight is at 5:05 Pacific. Have a great weekend everyone!
Catch up on our April 20-22 series against the Seattle Mariners! The #Athletics slugged six home runs in the series, breaking out in a big way offensively as they took 2 out of 3 & remain atop the AL West.
Apr 11, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker (99) reacts after allowing a home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the first inning at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
Hello everyone and happy Friday!
With the Mariners kicking off a six-game road trip this evening, how are you feeling about their chances to turn things around against a pair of weaker squads in the Cardinals and Twins?
Check out the latest episode of the Cal Raleigh Show!
Around the league…
Former Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig, who is facing up to 15 years in prison for obstruction of justice and providing false statements to federal officials, signed a deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs of the Canadian Baseball League.
The Rockies already have their tenth win of the season. Compare that to last year…
George Steinbrenner has to be rolling in his grave over this one.
The Yankees now have an alternate uniform. Per MLB, the navy blue batting practice tops are part of the official uniform set and have been approved to be worn in games.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - APRIL 06: Willson Contreras #40 of the Boston Red Sox is greeted in the dugout with a Wally the green monster hat after hitting a one run home run in the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Fenway Park on April 06, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jaiden Tripi/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Are the Boston Red Sox the league’s most disappointing team through the first four weeks of the season? They are at least in the discussion, alongside a few other clubs that were also expected to compete. And they come to Baltimore this weekend in horrible form, fresh off a sweep at the hands of the rival New York Yankees and losers of five out of their last six.
An area where they have expectedly struggled is offense. The 92 runs they have scored are the second-fewest in the American League and the fifth-fewest in all of MLB. Other categories where they rank near the bottom of baseball: batting average (27th, .223), on-base percentage (26th, .305), slugging percentage (last, .331), and home runs (29th, 14). It’s been tough sledding.
Willson Contreras has done his part for the lineup. He leads the club with four home runs and a 126 wRC+. Wilyer Abreu (119 wRC+), Connor Wong (118 wRC+), and Masataka Yoshida (117 wRC+) have also been good to begin the year. Conversely, the club is hoping for a bit more out of Roman Anthony (97 wRC+), Ceddanne Rafaela (92 wRC+), Marcelo Mayer (71 wRC+), Jarren Duran (57 wRC+), and Trevor Story (35 wRC+), among others.
It’s not as if the pitching has been much better. Their 4.37 team ERA is 19th in MLB, but their 5.19 xERA is all the way down at 29th. There is plenty of blame to go around with the bullpen having a 4.97 xERA while the starters have a 5.37 xERA.
Aroldis Chapman is back as the Boston closer. His 1.17 ERA is good, but his 4.80 xERA is not. That is a product of, for him, a depressed strikeout rate (9.39 K/9). Our old friend Danny Coulombe has had a tough go of it with his 7.11 ERA. That is accompanied by some bad peripherals (5.83 FIP, 5.68 K/9, 4.26 BB/9).
We won’t see Sonny Gray this weekend due to a hamstring strain he suffered a few days ago. It doesn’t sound serious, but he won’t pitch at Camden Yards in this series. Other familiar names that will miss out include first baseman Triston Casas (ruptured patellar tendon), right-handed pitchers Kutter Crawford (flexor irritation) and Johan Oviedo (flexor strain), plus left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval (biceps discomfort).
Game 1: Friday, April 24th, 7:05 p.m., MASN
RHP Brandon Young (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. RHP Brayan Bello (1-2, 6.75 ERA)
This was supposed to be Dean Kremer’s turn in the rotation, but news came down on Thursday that he would instead be headed to the IL with a quad strain. Brandon Young will be the one to get the call to replace him. The young righty has had himself a nice season so far. He’s got a 1.08 ERA over three Triple-A starts, and threw five shutout innings in his only big league appearance this season (April 6 against the White Sox). Between him, Kremer, and Cade Povich the Orioles have themselves an intriguing and ongoing competition for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Bello is dealing with a whole bunch of bad things happening at once for him. His fastball velocity is down over one mile per hour compared to 2025. At the same time, he is walking 5.79 batters per nine innings, which is only slightly lower than his 6.27 strikeouts per nine, which is the lowest rate of his career. Oh, and on top of that he is allowing 1.45 home runs per nine, one of the worst rates in MLB. It would be very fitting for him to turn it all around against the Orioles this weekend though.
Rogers has had a pair of tougher starts in his last two trips to the mound. He allowed four runs in 4.2 innings against the Diamondbacks on April 14th, and followed that up by allowing six runs over five innings to the Guardians on the 19th. Home runs hurt him in both outings. But nothing has changed about Rogers. He relies on limiting walks and inducing weak contact, which he has continued to do this season. A bounce-back against a struggling Red Sox lineup would be great to see.
Crochet is probably going to be fine, but it seems like he is in the midst of a mechanical change that has not had great results thus far. His arm angle is different, the velocity is down, and hitters are making much more hard contact. Hopefully the Orioles can be a part of the early-season onslaught against the lefty. Crochet allowed five runs over five innings against the Tigers in his last start, which was actually a marked improvement over the 11 runs (10 earned) that he coughed up against the Twins across just 1.2 innings back on April 13.
Game 3: Sunday, April 26th, 1:35 p.m., MASN
RHP Kyle Bradish (1-2, 3.96 ERA) vs. LHP Connelly Early (1-1, 2.88 ERA)
Over his last two starts, Bradish has looked much more like the ace-type that the Orioles were hoping to have in 2026. The box scores aren’t great either (for example, he allowed 10 hits to the Royals on April 20), but the eye test tells you that things are trending in the right direction. His pitch velocities are climbing and exit velocities are diving. If he could bring the walks down just a touch he should be in good shape.
A fifth-round pick in 2023, Early has just nine MLB starts under his belt, but he has had good results! The lefty is yet to allow more than three runs in a start this season. However, many of his peripheral stats are underwhelming. For one, his 5.70 xERA is much bigger than his actual 2.88 ERA. That is a reflection of his diminished strikeout numbers (8.64 K/9) and elevated walks (4.68 BB/9), which seems to be a theme in this Boston pitching staff.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments.
BRADENTON, FL - JULY 09: FCL Boston Red Sox shortstop Franklin Arias (18) fields his position during a Florida Complex League game against the FCL Pittsburgh Pirates on July 09, 2024 at Pirate City Complex in Bradenton, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
No Payton Tolle, no problem. Alec Gamboa rolled to a six-strikeout performance that got messed up by a home run ball, but the bullpen held the Mets scoreless the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the WooSox may have stranded 11 men on the night, but they slammed the door through some explosive offense in the late innings, including a single by Nick Sogard to score two and advance a runner via a third Mets error on the night. The Red Sox may have gotten a bit fortunate, but it obviously takes an offense on top of opportunities to win by six runs.
No, you’re not seeing things. Yes, this is getting ridiculous now. Franklin Arias is still only 20, but there is no denying that, after the fourth game in a row with a home run against the Yard Goats (Rockies AA), and sixth in seven games, it’s time to see how the young infielder fares at the next level. In the game itself, Arias’ home run was instrumental; it tied it all up and clinched the Sea Dogs heading to extra innings where they’d later walk Hartford off via a Max Ferguson single. They may have gone 2-for-16 with runners in scoring position, but last night, that was good enough to pull away victorious.
Fourteen strikeouts just wouldn’t be enough to keep Greenville from getting walked off in extras, even when the Drive drew ten walks. The Drive got most of their six runs off of a combination of these walks and the Tourists (Astros High-A) four errors on the night. With just three hits, this game shouldn’t have been even close, especially allowing four runs in the second inning as well as stranding ten runners on the night.
We go from a game that shouldn’t have been close to a game that wasn’t close. The RidgeYaks claimed an early lead by two home runs and never looked back with solid starting pitching from Dylan Brown. By the fourth inning, Salem was leading the Nationals 4-0, and the expected winning percentage never eclipsed back below 90 percent.
With the availability of Victor Wembanyama (concussion) very much in question, the San Antonio Spurs are in Portland for a pivotal Game 3 tonight as their first round series continues against Deni Avdija and the Portland Trail Blazers tied at one game apiece.
A finalist for NBA MVP this season and the league’s top defensive player, Wembanyama did light cardio work with the team before traveling with the Spurs to Portland yesterday. Symptoms are said to have not gotten worse, but no official word on if they lessened or disappeared as the day progressed. Needless to say, the Spurs will not push their franchise cornerstone, but his presence is obviously a difference maker for this young team. The most recent proof of that is found in Game 2. Wembanyama suffered a hard fall in the second quarter and did not return, a departure that allowed Portland to mount a 14-point comeback to steal a road win and even the series.If Wemby is unable to go, the Spurs will lean heavily on De’Aaron Fox and last year’s Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle to carry the offensive load.
The Trail Blazers take the court tonight for their first home playoff game since 2021 with significant momentum following Scoot Henderson’s breakout 31-point performance in Game 2. Portland got their transition game rolling. Deni Avdija, who averaged over 24 points during the regular season, has been a matchup problem for San Antonio's defense, and will continue to be that and more if Wembanyama is missing from the lineup.
Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch Live: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
Date: Friday, April 24, 2026
Time: 10:30PM EST
Site: Moda Center
City: Portland, OR
Network/Streaming: Prime Video
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Game Odds: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Portland Trail Blazers (+120), San Antonio Spurs (-142)
Spread: Spurs -2.5
Total: 220.5 points
This game opened Spurs -3.5 with the Game Total set at 219.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule!
Expected Starting Lineups: Trail Blazers vs. Spurs
Portland Trail Blazers
PG Jrue Holiday
SG Scoot Henderson
C Donovan Clingan
SF Deni Avdija
PF Toumani Camara
San Antonio Spurs
PG De’Aaron Fox
SG Devin Vassell
SG Stephon Castle
C Luke Kornet
PF Julian Champagnie
Injury Report: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
San Antonio Spurs
Victor Wembanyama (concussion) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
Jordan McLaughlin (ankle) has been declared OUT for tonight’s game
David Jones Garcia (ankle) has been declared OUT for tonight’s game
Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard (Achilles) has been declared OUT for tonight’s game
Important stats, trends and insights: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
The Spurs are 33-9 at home this season
The Blazers are 20-24 on the road this season
The Spurs are 46-37-2 ATS this season
Portland is 46-39 ATS this season
The OVER has cashed in 43 of the Blazers’ 85 games this season (43-42)
The OVER has cashed in 36 of the Spurs’ 85 games this season (36-49)
Luke Kornet scored 10 points and pulled down nine rebounds in 28 minutes in relief of Wembanyama in Game 2
Deni Avdija shot just 5-13 from the field in Game 2
Scoot Henderson’s 31 points included 5-9 from deep
Stephon Castle led the Spurs with 5 assists in Game 2
Rotoworld Best Bet
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700. Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday’s Spurs and Trail Blazers game IF WEMBANYAMA DOES NOT PLAY:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Blazers on the Moneyline
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on Portland +2.5 ATS
Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total UNDER 220.5
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Recent European quarter-final was a classic and champions’ Prem trip to the Midlands will likely produce similar
Was this the greatest game ever played, people were asking in the aftermath of that quarter-final of the Champions Cup a fortnight ago in Bath. Victory by the odd try in 11; home team roared on to successful comeback victory with that 11th try in the last five minutes; Northampton, the away team, 28-7 up after barely 20 minutes, playing rugby of the gods.
A personal opinion is that it certainly was the greatest game ever played … this month. Without wanting to prick any bubbles of enthusiasm that may have swelled in the moments after the latest epic, yes, the match was incredible – and if it had happened in the amateur era would have been consecrated as legend long ago – but have we already forgotten France v England not even a month earlier? What about Scotland v France a week before that? We could go on.
Hawkins leads Williams 10-6; Allen 9-7 up on Wilson
Shaun Murphy will savour some home comforts after beating Xiao Guodong with a session to spare and reaching the last eight of the World Snooker Championship. Murphy guaranteed himself a night off on Friday with a 13-3 second-round demolition of Xiao – and then revealed he was heading home before his quarter-final gets under way on Tuesday.
“Mathematically it’s possible to win with a session to spare but you don’t think it’s going to happen,” Murphy told the BBC after a fluent potting display that produced four centuries and seven further breaks over 60. “I kept getting those little chances and I’m really pleased how I played. It doesn’t happen often because everybody’s so good. We’re going to ship out of Sheffield for a few days. Go home now.
Apr 21, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Devin Vassell (24) drives against Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija (8) during the second half of game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
Before Game 1, I chatted with Dave, my friend who runs PtR’s sister site that covers the Portland Trail Blazers, Blazers Edge. After Game 2, we agreed to pick it back up as the series shifts to the Pacific Northwest.
Dave
Well, the series is 1-1 and nothing is decided firmly, but the most important thing is Wemby and the concussion. Are you worried? Does it seem like Wembanyama is just a wee bit injury-prone at this point?
J.R.
I’ve decided that I won’t be worried until Game 7 and Wemby isn’t playing. I know it’s assuming a lot, jumping ahead five games but I don’t want to consider the team not being able to hang with Portland without the Alien. Still, since it’s best not to take too much for granted, I’ll amend my official stance to the following: I will not worry until it’s an elimination game and Wemby isn’t playing
As to him being injury prone, I’m not feeling it. He played 71 games his rookie year. He’s had his share of minor injuries, but sprained ankles happen to everyone and none of his have recurred. The big game-stealer was last year’s DVT which can come in a repeating version or a plain vanilla freak medical event style. And everything we know points to his being the latter. This season, the big challenge to him playing 65 games was a calf strain that happened when Podz went full Cobra Kai and swept Victor’s leg. The recovery took its own sweet time, but that was because after all of the Achilles tears last season, perhaps the most important medical term for franchises to pay attention to is “calf strain.”
To summarize: I see a string of both normal and unusual situations that only have a single thing in common – that they all happened to the same guy. That’s not my definition of being injury prone.
So, as to Game 2, I saw a lot of awesome things happen for your team and a serious percentage of them had a double zero attached to them! Do you think coming through in the crucible of the playoffs is exciting for Henderson’s long-term outlook, or have the last three seasons already given you enough of a read on what he’s going to become?
Dave
Game 2 was good for Scoot’s personal brand and hopefully his confidence. He’s played 160 NBA games in his career now. That was his best all-around one. It showed the progress he’s made defensively. His three-point shot opened up drives. Scoot can be deadly with a head of steam and a little space off the dribble. It was all the best of Mr. Henderson, wrapped up in 38 minutes of fun.
Anyone who tries to get a read on Scoot’s future based on that game is either a totally optimistic Blazers fan or hasn’t watched him or the team much this year. Portland’s performances are repeatable, but never for long. They’ll sustain for 3-4 games, then flip to the polar opposite of what they were. It doesn’t even depend on the opponent that much. Sure, they did better towards the end of the season in a weaker schedule than they did in the middle months when it was brutal, but they’ve beaten some great teams and lost to some lousy ones inexplicably. Trying to analyze the Blazers is just like going to church. First comes the reading, then comes the prayer. And who knows whether it’ll be answered this week or not?
We shouldn’t minimize the progress Scoot has made. This version of him is impactful. Even the down parts are NBA-worthy (mostly). That’s way better than his rookie season. But you can flip a coin whether this is the start of something new or just an anomaly that shows his ceiling without being able to sustain it.
Well, we have an update on Wemby now. He traveled to Portland and has been listed as questionable. Are they really thinking about playing him? What are the chances that this is a little bit of gamesmanship on the Spurs’ part? If it were my franchise cornerstone against an opponent as beatable as Portland, I think I’d give it another game at least.
J.R.
First, I think it’s wise, whenever you’re dealing with a franchise that has an ex-spy like Gregg Popovich who’s had a hand in creating a culture that prioritizes winning above all things, including dealing with the media and filing injury reports (anybody remember Duncan’s DNP-Old?), to expect at least a modicum of gamesmanship and often quite a bit more.
Second, I think there’s practically zero chance that Wemby is on the court for Game 3. San Antonio‘s process for returning a player from a serious injury does not include playing someone that they list as questionable. It goes from being unavailable, to being questionable for several games, to being probable for a night or two, and then playing. There are a lot of stages to it and it’s very predictable. The only question is whether they consider this to be a serious injury. And, I mean, it’s the franchise player’s freaking brain. That’s serious. Even Vic traveling with the team, I’d say I give it less than 50% chance of playing in Game 4.
Now, what do you think about the way the Blazers turned the tables and overcame that double digit lead in the fourth? I liked the intensity of the defense, and the Spurs were certainly not prepared to attack in a way that surprised Portland. How regularly do you think they’ll be able to match that effort?
Dave
Honestly, I read the Spurs as overconfident after building up that double-digit lead. Yes, Portland’s defense was good. They can do that. But does anybody recall the Blazers basically letting you guys score on the break in the third period and/or early fourth because they couldn’t be bothered to take care of the ball or get back on defense? Both sides of that coin are very Portland in 2025-26. I think San Antonio smelled the win, thought they had it, then got disabused of that notion as the Blazers made one of their famous, death-defying runs. By the time y’all got your act together, the game was there for the taking.
There’s a huge difference between that scenario and playing 48 minutes of high-focus, pristinely-executed basketball. I’m not sure the Blazers can pull that off. And if they don’t, the Spurs will be right there, either even or building another 12-14 point lead.
You still have the deeper talent pool–I hear the Spurs were kicked out of community game night for getting a BINGO after three balls were drawn–and you have the advantage of having played together the whole season. The Blazers team you’re seeing right now is basically five weeks old, at best. I think this is the first time all year the injury list reads, “Damian Lillard” and nothing else. I’m not joking about that. Portland’s starting lineup is still in the talking stage. Their bench players are basically trying to speed date the first unit. More overall talent and more continuity for San Antonio will probably be the bane of any attempt by the Blazers to put together a superior complete game.
The Blazers could win two games if Wemby doesn’t play significant minutes. The Blazers could win one under any circumstances. I think the most likely outcome, factoring in injuries, is a 1-1 split over the weekend. The next most likely outcome is probably Spurs 2-0. Blazers 2-0 registers but it’s in third place on the odds table.
What’s your prediction for the outcome of the next two games?
J.R.
I predict Wemby plays neither game, but takes up space and churns all kinds of rumors with his presence alone. Whether that steals cycles from Portland’s coaching staff you’ll know better than I, but I’m preparing for the worst – coming home potentially down 3-1. Now that might not be the most probable outcome, but the Wemby-less Spurs haven’t proven that they can beat this version of the Blazers that’s reinventing themselves on the fly. Until they do, the series is up in the air.
You say you expect 1-1 over the weekend and for me that’s a win, because it contains at least one win! This year, the Spurs have had their struggles in late-game situations against a defense that’s dug in and prepared for them. Early in the season, the team had a ton of success in clutch situations, but since February when they started blowing teams out and went 23-2 with Wemby playing, they rarely played close down the stretch but didn’t look great when they did. I’m concerned about how they generate offense in the last two minutes of a tight game on the road.
Bottom line, these two teams playing without Victor seems pretty evenly matched, but I’d feel much better if you told me that it’d be 1-1 after two blowouts than I would be expecting that result if we get two close games. Hate to say it, but it’s true.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - APRIL 22: Owen Tippett #74 of the Philadelphia Flyers celebrates his empty net goal against the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game Three of the First Round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Xfinity Mobile Arena on April 22, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Flyers defeated the Penguins 5-2. (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Pittsburgh Penguins face their first truly must win game of the season tomorrow night in Philadelphia. If they can do that, they would have another in Pittsburgh on Monday. If they won that, it’d be another must win situation setup for Game 6 in Philadelphia. If somehow they won that too, then there would be a Game 7 back in Pittsburgh.
As we all know the odds of that happening, realistically, are grim right now. Perhaps even non-existent. The Pens have been outplayed in any and every facet over the first three games, and the only time they were leading a game got thrown away due to a post-whistle scrum that quickly put them back behind. The goaltending has been spotty, and certainly much better for the other club. The adjustments made have made little difference. We could go on and on, but you probably get the picture and have already accepted that Pittsburgh’s impressive season is coming to a shockingly ugly end.
With that dose of reality out of the way, why not dream a little? It’s Friday, there’s no game today and 0-3 comebacks (completed or attempted) are on the rise in hockey. It’s still a fact that the series is almost a foregone conclusion – teams up 3 games to 0 have ended up winning 209 out of 213 times in NHL history in a stat from the Tribune Review, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all the drama has to be over just yet.
No one would know that better than Stuart Skinner. In 2024, the Edmonton Oilers fell down 3-0 to the Florida Panthers. Skinner, of course, was the goalie for the Oilers back then. Edmonton won the next three games to force a Game 7. They’d lose 2-1 to come so close to the ‘reverse sweep’ of winning four straight games after falling into a big hole.
“Playoffs are intense,” Skinner said. “There’s a lot of pressure, a lot of noise going on everywhere. I feel like when you go down 3-0, what really helped me in my experience was it kind of just frees you up. You don’t really have anything to lose. And we’re in a spot where we don’t have anything to lose, and they do. If we catch them a couple times — just talking about momentum — you can change momentum, and when that happens, things can go in your favor.”
By the way, Skinner’s performances in Games 4-7 of the ‘24 Stanley Cup Final were outstanding. He only allowed seven goals over the four games (1.76 GAA) and posted a .935 save%, he played some extremely great hockey with his back to the wall, so his words about getting freed from the pressure sound like they worked. It’s not like the first round against the Flyers carries the same burdens of playing for a Canadian team in the SCF where every question is built around if Connor McDavid can ever win ‘his’ Cup, so who knows how much that will change the performance this time around. At this point that sounds like one of the best straws to grasp at that at least the Penguins have a goalie who has been in this exact situation before and handled it extremely well.
The most recent time for a 0-3 series comeback in the NHL dates back to 2014, when the Los Angeles Kings pulled the trick against the San Jose Sharks in the first round. The Kings would go onto win the Stanley Cup that year. It’s crazy to think how close that was to going out the window in the very opening games of the playoffs, which goes to provide yet another instance of just how thins the margins are in the NHL this time of year between winning and losing.
Back in 2011, there were two close calls: the Sharks almost blew a 3-0 lead against Detroit, but SJ held on and earned a Game 7 victory. In that very same year and round, the then-defending Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks dropped an overtime Game 7 to fall just short of making an 0-3 comeback of their own against Vancouver at the very same time the SJ/DET series was going on.
The year prior, in 2010, Philadelphia was able to overcome a 0-3 deficit to the Boston Bruins in the conference semifinals and advance. There must have been something in the water during that 2010-14 time frame with a couple close calls (Detroit and Chicago in ‘11) and then a pair of successful comebacks (LA in ’14 and Philadelphia in ‘10) all happening in the same period.
For historical completion, the Penguins have been involved in a 0-3 series comeback, albeit on the wrong end. The NY Islanders made the massive comeback in 1975, serving as a sore spot for the franchise for many years, especially considering that ‘75 series made for a recurring trivia note since it was the only time from 1943-2009 that an NHL team blew a 3-0 series lead. The time before that, in 1942, was the Stanley Cup Final where Toronto pulled the comeback against Detroit.
It sounds daunting to even consider the Penguins joining those groups of teams to make a run. Based on the numbers (209 out of 213) it’s obvious a lot of these series are bound to conclude in four or five games when it gets to this situation. Just call it some Friday morning optimism that just because the vast majority of these instances are foregone conclusions doesn’t necessarily mean it’s unprecedented.
“We have to win a hockey game,” Dan Muse said. “So, we’ll have a practice [Friday], get ready for that game. Then, we’ll go into that game, we need to win a game. And so, that’s entirely where the focus is right now.”
Climbing out of an 0-3 hole is sort of like that old saying about eating an elephant. It has to be done one bite at a time. Game 4 is that first bite. Win that, extend the season and earn the chance to take that next bite in Game 5. It’s easier said than done but the Penguins still have an opportunity available to go down a path that exists for teams to at least make a run at pulling the reverse sweep.
We have three games on the NBA Playoffs schedule this evening, and I’ve found value in my NBA player props. I’ll highlight Devin Vassell, LeBron James, and Tyrese Maxey.
Tyrese Maxey certainly did his part in Game 2, scoring 29 points and dishing out nine assists as the Philadelphia 76ers tied the series, 1-1.
Maxey’s hit the Over in dimes in back-to-back games in this first-round matchup, and the guard averaged 6.6 assists per contest during the regular season.
The Boston Celtics are allowing 8.6 dimes per game to point guards, and Maxey is averaging exactly 6.5 assists this season at home.
He’s thriving as a passer at the moment, and his playmaking will help the Sixers keep Game 3 competitive on home court.
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Prime Video
Prop #2: LeBron James Over 8.5 assists
-115 at bet365
It’s pretty remarkable that the Los Angeles Lakers are up 2-0 on the Houston Rockets without their two best players, but that’s the case right now.
LeBron James is definitely a big reason for the series lead. He’s cooking in every way. The King dished out 13 dimes in Game 1, and while he had just seven in Game 2, Bron has hit the Over in four of his last six.
In fact, in his last two road games, James has compiled a whopping 26 dimes.
Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves remain out, which means the playmaking duties continue to fall heavily on LeBron’s shoulders. He’s making everyone around him better at the moment, and he’ll continue to pick apart an inconsistent Rockets defense.
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Prime Video
Prop #3: Devin Vassell Over 14.5 points
-115 at bet365
Devin Vassell is one of the players on this San Antonio Spurs roster who will need to step up heavily with Victor Wembanyama either out or playing hurt, and I believe he will.
The guard scored 16 points last time out, and he’s cashed the Over in both games of this series so far. He’s also played heavy minutes through Games 1 and 2, averaging 33 per contest.
There’s a big workload to make up for if Wembanyama is not on the floor, and Vassell will have the rock in his hands a lot more tonight. He’ll be one of the key guys in helping the Spurs stay afloat in the series.
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The New York Knicks are looking to bounce back after dropping two straight games as they head into Game 4 on the road against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday.
Jalen Brunson fell just short down the stretch in Game 3, but my Knicks vs. Hawks predictions expect him to respond with a signature scoring performance to help New York even up the series.
Here are my best free NBA picks for Saturday’s Game 4 from State Farm Arena.
UPDATE: Added prediction for who will win.
Knicks vs Hawks prediction
Who will win Knicks vs Hawks Game 4?
Knicks: It’s do-or-die time for the New York Knicks, who are staring down a potential 3-1 series deficit. Coming back from a 3-1 hole is nearly impossible, and New York can reclaim home-court advantage and regain momentum with a victory in Game 4.
The Knicks had the ball on the final possession of Games 2 and 3, and they lost by one point in each on a missed Mikal Bridges jumper and a Jalen Brunson turnover. Brunson and the Knicks will clean up their mistakes from the last two games and win this one on the road.
Knicks vs Hawks best bet: Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 points (-110)
When the NBA playoffs roll around, Jalen Brunson elevates his scoring to a new level. Since 2023-24, Brunson is one of just four players to average 30+ points per game, and he’s the only one to play in more than six games.
With an average of 30.4 points across his last 34 playoff games, Brunson has a proven track record in critical games.
Brunson has found success in Game 4’s in recent seasons. He’s averaged 32.6 points per game across his last seven Game 4’s, scoring 27+ six times. He’s reached that mark in four of his last five road games in that situation.
Over his last 21 playoff games overall, Brunson has averaged a healthy 29.2 points, and he’s scored 27+ 14 times, including two of three in this year’s postseason. He came up just shy of that mark in Game 3, finishing with 26 points.
Brunson averaged 28.5 points in six matchups against the Atlanta Hawks this season, including 30 points per game at State Farm Arena. Brunson reached 27+ points in four of six games against the Hawks.
In the regular season, Brunson recorded 27+ points in 38 of 74 games overall and in 21 of 38 games on the road. He hit a clutch “And-1” in the final minute of Game 3 only to watch as CJ McCollum hit a go-ahead bucket in the final seconds.
Brunson uncharacteristically turned the ball over on the final possession of the game, and he’ll be driven to atone for that mistake and lead his team to victory. This could be the blowup scoring game for which New York Knicks fans have been waiting.
Knicks vs Hawks same-game parlay
Each of the last two games of the series has been decided by one point, and four of six head-to-head matchups in 2025-26 have been decided by three points or fewer. Game 4 will be a dog fight, but I expect Brunson to lead the Knicks to a crucial victory.
A win for New York makes this a best-of-three series with home court advantage, but a loss means the Knicks will need to win three straight. After coming up just shy in Games 2 and 3, I expect the Knicks to play with urgency and get the job done on the road before coming back to the Garden.
This hasn’t been a high-scoring series, but the point totals keep creeping down, and we can find value in the Over. Three of six games between these teams have gone for at least 215 points, and two more went for 213.
Game 3 totaled 217 points despite two of New York’s starters combining for just two points. I’ll bet the Over as New York gets back on track offensively.
Knicks vs Hawks SGP
Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 points
Knicks -1.5
Over 214.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Villanova Three!
Josh Hart finished with just two points on 1-of-9 shooting in Game 3, and he’s got to be more productive. Improved scoring from New York’s starters is crucial, as the Knicks have lost two straight games by just one point.
Hart scored 12+ in 18 of 33 road games in the regular season, and he’s due for a bounce-back performance in a critical Game 4.
Mikal Bridges has scored 21 total points on 8-of-22 shooting through the first three games of this series. That’s dreadful for a guy who was brought in to be the missing piece on a contending team.
Bridges logged only 21 minutes in Game 3 in favor of Miles McBride (15 points), and I expect the benching and poor performance to motivate him in Saturday’s high-stakes matchup.
Knicks vs Hawks SGP
Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 points
Knicks -1.5
Josh Hart Over 11.5 points
Mikal Bridges Over 10.5 points
Knicks vs Hawks odds for Game 4
Spread: Knicks -1.5 (-115) | Hawks +1.5 (+105)
Moneyline: Knicks -130 | Hawks +110
Over/Under: Over 214.5 | Under 214.5
Knicks vs Hawks betting trend to know
The New York Knicks have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 35 of their last 50 games (+19.90 Units / 27% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Hawks.
How to watch Knicks vs Hawks Game 4
Location
State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
Date
Saturday, April 25, 2026
Tip-off
6:00 p.m. ET
TV
NBC
Knicks vs Hawks latest injuries
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“You broke their hearts, now go and take their souls!” That was the final phase of the Huskers’ team meeting Friday night after a big comeback win, exclaimed by pitching coach Rob Childress. And that really epitomized the approach the team took the remainder of the biggest weekend in at least 11 years at Hawks Field. That propelled the Huskers up the RPI ladder, where they now sit at 13. That puts them right in the thick of the battle to host a regional, one of the major goals for Will Bolt each year. Taking care of business with nothing like the 2021 Rutgers sweeping them at home, should mean we see June baseball in Lincoln.
Coach Dan Hartleb (somehow in his 21st season) and Illinois are stuck in the middle of the slog of the Big Ten. They sit at 8th with an 8-10 record, with 6 teams either tied in wins or within a game of them in the standings. They’ve basically won the series against the teams they should have (Minnesota, Rutgers, and Penn State) and have lost to the teams you’d expect them to (USC, Purdue, and Oregon).
The major thing the Illini have going for them is that they are finishing up a 3 week home stand, and Nebraska has been living on a bus since the USC series ended. But they are only 5-4 in the home stand against some “meh” teams, other than Oregon. They are going to be striving to not drop close to the 12 spot and be in danger of missing the Big Ten Tournament field.
Game 1: RHP Cooper Katskee (5-0, 4.02 ERA) vs. LHP Regan Hall (5-4, 5.37 ERA)
Game 2: RHP Carson Jasa (7-1, 3.93 ERA) vs. RHP Mitch Dye (1-0, 5.35 ERA)
Game 3: RHP Gavin Blachowicz (3-1, 3.02 ERA) vs. TBD
It’s safe to say Cooper Katskee’s first Friday night start didn’t go as planned. 5 earned runs on 6 hits and 5 walks in 3 innings against an average USC offense put Nebraska in a hole against the best pitcher in the conference. Katskee admitted he may have been a little too excited to start his first Friday night game in scarlet and cream, and may have overdone his preparation, which was also on a shorter week with the move from Sundays. Let’s see how a normal week lets him rebound.
From the first inning, Carson Jasa was in control against USC. He was hitting 97 mph on his fastball with ease, and had his big 12-6 curve working maybe the best it has all season to mix with his slider and cutter. He struck out 7 and didn’t give up a run until the 7th and final inning. He gave up both of his runs and 3 of his 5 hits on the day in that inning. He’d obviously run out of gas, but with some big arms doing lots of work Friday night, powering through for a complete game was a huge help to the bullpen.
In his return to the Sunday slot, Gavin Blachowicz also had a rough start, walking the bases loaded, tossing a wild pitch, and giving up back to back home runs in the 2nd inning. With the bullpen fully rested, the coaches wasted no time in going to new long reliever Ty Horn to steady the ship. Sweeping a ranked team despite 2 starters only tossing a couple innings each is beyond difficult and just shows the resolve of this team.
Regan Hall has been the Friday night ace for the Illini all season and has pulled off some big victories, including against Coastal Carolina. However, his last outing against Oregon makes Katskee and Blachowicz USC lines look like they were Roger Clemons and Pedro Martinez. Hall gave up eleven (ELEVEN!!!) runs on 11 hits with 2 doubles, a triple and 3 home runs by the Ducks in only 3.2 innings. His ERA jumped from 3.83 to 5.37. Woof. Hall has struck out 49 and only walked 11 in 55 innings. So he is coming right at you.
After being a lights out reliever for the first month and a half of the season, Mitch Dye was inserted into the starting rotation. He had gone 4 straight appearances without allowing a run, and in his first start against Minnesota, only gave up a single run in 4.3 innings. Since then his ERA has gone from 2.31 to 5.35. But injuries and ineffectiveness of other starters force him to remain in the weekend starting role. The Sunday slot is not yet declared, as the team weighs going with
Scouting Report
The Illini offense is nothing like it was in 2024 when they won the Big Ten regular season crown by just mashing the ball all over, and out of, the yard. They are in the bottom half of nearly every offensive statistic. One thing they do is take a ton of pitches, trying to both draw walks and get a team to its bullpen. They are only 13th in the B1G in batting average at .269, but tied for 3rd in walks. You have to attack them.
The player that has been the most steady performer on offense has been a freshman first baseman, AJ Putty. Putty has worked himself into being the team’s cleanup batter, leading the team with a .338 batting average. He also leads the team in extra base hits with 20 (11 doubles, a triple and 8 home runs), and RBIs with 43. He really looks to be the guy they can build around in years to come, if they can hang on to him. He is an home grown Illinois kid, so its not out of the question.
Leadoff batter and outfielder Nick Groves is one of the harder outs to get on the team. He is batting .320, but adds a team leading 30 walks to push his OBP to .451. The Senior outfielder loves to show off his speed. He is a team best 11 for 15 on stolen bases and also leads the team with 3 triples on the year. He currently has an on-base streak of 42, good for 4th in Illinois history. The team’s Director of Player Development Cam McDonald is the program record holder at 63.
The best power bat in the Illinois lineup is outfielder Collin Jennings. At 6’5” 215 lbs, he is an imposing centerfielder. He led the team in home runs and slugging last year, and is leading in home runs again this year. He currently has 10 home runs, and is second on the team with 31 RBIs.
The Illinois bullpen is fairly average. They have decent numbers that that are around the middle of the Big Ten teams, except for their walks. The staff as a whole only averages 3.5 walks per 9 innings, which is 3rd in the Big Ten behind UCLA and Michigan State at 3.2 and 3.4.
Reed Gannon is the top option in the bullpen. He leads the team with 16 appearances, and 3 saves. He can go multiple innings, having gone 5 innings against Penn State earlier in the season. He has 25 strikeouts and 6 walks in 32.1 innings of work on the year. Expect him to get a lot of work if one of the games still seems in the mix.
Sam Reed is another oft used left handed reliever. His ERA is only 3.27, but his other numbers suggest that should be higher. He only has 13 strikeouts to go with 8 walks in 22 innings of work. Batters are hitting .253 against him, which is very high for someone with that ERA. He makes up for that with only having allowed 6 extra base hits. He is quite the enigma with all of his numbers.
The young arm that seems to have the most upside is sophomore Sam Mommer. He is a transfer from Wisconsin-Parkside a D-II school where he won the conference freshman of the year last year before transferring to Illinois for this year. He has made 12 appearances, including 3 starts, with a bullpen best 2.45 ERA. He has 23 strikeouts and 11 walks in 25.2 innings on the year.
Illinois has a very good defense, fielding the ball at 97.8%.
Series History
Illinois owns a 16-15 all time record against Nebraska (Illinois claims it is 18-15). Nebraska won the last series in 2023. The last time the teams met in Champaign, you might remember the 5 hours worth of weather delays during the series finale. Nebraska was making a late season push to try and make the Big Ten Tournament, so was willing to stay as late as possible to try for a win, but gave up a run in the bottom of the 9th to lose 5-4. Then they would get tarp-ed the next week by Purdue. #NeverForget
On Deck
Drew Grego, current Big Ten co-Player of the Week and Freshman of the week, has 33 RBIs on the season. Thats 6th most by a freshman this century. He is 1 behind Brice Matthews (2021), and 4 behind Pat Kelly (2012).
Dylan Carey and Mac Moyer are tied for 2nd in the Big Ten with 65 hits, and Nebraska is the only team in the country with 2 players over 65 hits.
The 36 runs Nebraska scored in the USC series, is its second highest total in a Big Ten series. Against the team that led the conference in ERA.
Carson Jasa has 77 strikeouts on the year, 5th most in Nebraska’s Big Ten era, and 3 behind Emmett Olson (2023).
If you haven’t been a watcher of the cinematic recaps that the athletic department puts out, check out one of the best ones, the recap of the USC series.
Columbus Clippers Travis Bazzana (12) throws the ball to first base during home opener at Huntington Park on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Columbus should have pulled this game off. The Clippers rallied for four runs in the top of the ninth inning to take a 5-4 lead, but Cody Heuer picked a terrible time to surrender his first run of the season in the bottom of the ninth to send the game to extra innings.
Then in the 10th inning, after Columbus failed to score, Franco Aleman, who also had not allowed an earned run all season, kept his streak alive — although the ghost runner scored to lose the game.
Kahlil Watson had the lone multi-hit game, going 2-for-5 with a stolen base. Milen Tolentino walked twice and stole a base and Petey Halpin tripled and walked.
Travis Bazzana’s hot streak continued as well, as he went 1-for-4 with a home run, a walk and a stolen base. He continues to look like he’s right on the verge of a call-up should Juan Brito continue to struggle on defense.
Travis Bazzana with a 110.1 mph laser for his second roundtripper of the year.
The RubbereDucks collected nine hits and walked eight times, but managed just two runs because they went a putrid 0-for-12 with runners in scoring position.
Angel Genao led the way, going 2-for-3 with two walks. Jacob Cozart also had a great game, going 2-for-4 with a two-run home run and a walk, accounting for all of Akron’s scoring on the day.
Christian Knapczyk went 2-for-5 with a double while Alex Mooney went 1-for-2 with two walks and Guy Lipscomb walked twice.
Starting pitcher Cam Favors was decent, allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits with six strikeouts and a walk in 6.0 innings.
Carter Rustad added 2.0 innings, allowing an unearned run with three strikeouts.
Braylon Doughty was the story of this game as his spectacular start to the 2026 season continues. Doughty was flat out impressive, allowing one run on five hits in 5.0 innings with eight strikeouts and zero walks.
Braylon Doughty had it all working tonight (4/23/26). Racked up 14 whiffs, mid-90s heat with command everywhere, and showed off his nasty curve and slider.
— Justin L. (jlbaseball on bluesky) (@JL_Baseball) April 24, 2026
The bullpen didn’t give up a run over the remaining four innings.
Offensively, Maick Collado had himself a game, going 2-for-5 with a home run and a double. Ryan Cesarini also went 2-for-5 with a home run.
Other standouts included Jaison Chourio, who went 2-for-4 with a double and a walk and Dean Curley, who went 2-for-4 with a double and a walk. Catching prospect Bennett Thompson went 1-for-2 with a double and three walks.
Joey Oakie was good, not great, but he pitched well enough to give the Howlers a chance to win before a late bullpen blowup cost Hill City.
Oakie allowed one run on two hits in 4.0 innings, but he walked five batters while striking out two.
Jervis Alfaro also pitched 4.0 innings. His first three innings were great, but then he got lit up in the eighth inning for five runs.
Robert Arias remains scorching at the plate. The 19-year-old blasted his third home run of the season, also his third in the last five games, while going 2-for-4 with a stolen base. If he keeps this up, he skyrockets up my prospect rankings into not just the top 10, but possibly the top five.
WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 23: Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves rounds the bases after hitting a home run in the ninth inning during the game between the Atlanta Braves and the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on Thursday, April 23, 2026 in Washington, District of Columbia. (Photo by Alyssa Piazza/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Okay, I don’t have a great title for this one, but this is probably less a question post than a thoughts post, just masquerading as a daily question post.
With the best record in baseball, the Braves are surprising to probably everyone, except maybe themselves. I thought they’d be good, but not best-team-in-baseball good. Sure, a good team can play like the best team for a month (a bad team can play like the best team for a month), but it’s still surprising when it happens. Component-wise, coming into the season, the most common complaining refrain was about the rotation. I thought the rotation would be fine — maybe not great, but above-average. Through the Braves’ first 26 games, the rotation is instead, “funny” moreso than anything else: 78/106/99, ranking 23rd in FIP-, 16th in xFIP-, but third in ERA- thanks to the defense behind the arms. I’m not sure who, if anyone, was right about the rotation at this point, and it’ll work itself out in one way or another in the coming months, anyway.
My bigger concern was the middle infield. Ha-Seong Kim needed a bounceback, even before he (re-)injured himself in the offseason. Mauricio Dubon was a great get as a utility fill-in that could play a realistically good shortstop, but would be stretched as a quality regular. And then, we come to Ozzie Albies, whose career had been petering out. I won’t rehash the whole thing here (see his player review for 2025 if you want more), but Albies finished 2025 with a career-low 87 wRC+, a sub-.300 xwOBA (.299), below-average defense at second base for the third time in three years, and just 1.3 fWAR despite getting 667 PAs. Oh, and on top of that, he fractured his hamate bone late in the season, an injury that’s known to sap power for a long duration even after the player returns to the lineup.
Well, Kim is still injured, and we’ll get to Dubon another time. But Albies? At a surface level, joke’s on me: his career looks resuscitated. He has a 126 wRC+, the lowest strikeout rate of his career, and 0.7 fWAR, i.e., paced at 3.8 fWAR per 600 PAs (or 4.4 for 162 games). Albies is back, right? Maybe he’ll even get another extension to hang around and produce for the team in his 30s, which would be more aesthetically pleasing than tearing apart the Ronald Acuña Jr.-Albies BFFship, right?
Well… not so fast, maybe. Despite Albies’ fantastic plate results so far, he’s rocking a .296 xwOBA. His average exit velocity is down over two mph from last year, which was already about a mph off from 2023-2024. He’s posting a career-low barrel rate, and his xwOBACON is below .300, which is something I haven’t seen from anyone over three-four weeks, maybe ever. While he’s historically really only hit fastballs, his performance against non-fastballs is even worse now than ever before. On top of this, he’s making less contact while not generating any power. Inputs-wise, essentially, he does look like a logical progression from a poor 2025 while coming off a hamate bone injury. Which is sad, because we all want Albies to stick around and succeed, but…
If there’s one positive, it’s that Albies seems to have improved defensively, reversing the trend of him being a minus at the keystone. It’s a tiny sample, and his arm strength is still getting worse, now to the point where it’s essentially the worst throwing arm for an fielder that has to make throws in baseball. But, in the 2023-2025 stretch, he only had five positive defensive months at second, and 2026 has started off with one so far, as part of a teamwide defensive showcase. So, it’s not all bad.
Bottom line, Albies remains in an awkward position. The only thing that’s not awkward is that the vibes (and outputs) are approaching immaculate. So long as the team keeps winning, there won’t be many complaints; so long as he’s massively outhitting his xwOBA (a top ten overperformance), nothing’s gonna happen. But, we know these things don’t last, not even for habitual xwOBA overperformers like Albies, so… I dunno. Is Ozzie Albies on the rebound? I’ll still hope so, but it isn’t looking that way right now.
(I didn’t fit it in here, but Albies stopped hitting lefties well last year, and he’s continuing to have an issue there this year, with a sub-.250 xwOBA against them that he’s also massively outhitting.)
Tyrese Maxey
LeBron James
Devin Vassell
