Category: Sports News

We live in a world that’s increasingly predetermined. From the results in your search engine, to the next spoon-fed video YouTube recommends, to the advertisements you’ll see in this very article (which by the way you’ll see a lot less of if you sign up for Over The Monster and join our little community). Equations and algorithms run our life.

Enter the Red Sox rotation, which like our lives, feels increasingly preprogramed. There SHOULD be an intriguing little battle between Johan Oviedo, Connelly Early and Payton Tolle for the final spot behind Garrett Crochet, Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Brayan Bello — but is there?

Yesterday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive did an outstanding job of outlining the factors at play, and by factors I mean the reason Oviedo is almost certainly going to get the first crack at the rotation over both Early and Tolle, no matter how fabulous their stuff looks on the mound down in Fort Myers. In short, Early has to spend 35 days in the minors for the Sox to gain an extra year of control of his services in 2032, and Tolle needs to spend 46 days down there to get that same extra year of control in 2032. So guess where they’re going come April?

Last week, we did our quarterly approval polling here at Over The Monster, and one of the questions asked “Do you believe the Red Sox will play service time manipulation games with Payton Tolle and / or Connelly Early?” A whopping 77% of respondents answered “yes” to that question, which is kind of astounding when you think about it. We can see what’s happening, and we know what’s about to transpire, but few cry foul because we’re slaves to the most “efficient” way to run a ballclub.

And of course, there’s also just enough plausible deniability where a couple of things could go off script and the kids end up breaking through anyway. The first of course is injury, and that’s partially how Early and Tolle got their shot last September. The rotation thinned, the other obvious options were clear losers, and the club needed fresh arms to get to the finish line. This spring, I see five arms in front of Early and Tolle and nearly a month to go before Opening Day, so it’s not impossible a slot opens up. Stuff happens!

Secondly, Early or Tolle could agree to a team friendly contract. Look no further than last spring when Kristian Campbell made the Opening Day roster over both Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer despite not looking nearly as good as either of them in camp. And wouldn’t you know it, just days after the season started, Campbell and the club agreed to an eight-year, $60 million deal. (What an amazing coincidence! I’m sure there’s no possible way that was agreed to before camp ended and influenced who made the roster.)

In any case, those are the two most likely ways I see Early and/or Tolle making the roster out of the gate, but as far as actually pitching their way into the rotation through good ol’ fashion merit? Well, let’s just say my cynical ass has some serious doubts. In fact, the better these guys look, the more likely the Sox are to to try and wrestle away that extra year of control. It’s all part of that Cobra Effect we talked about last year with Anthony and Mayer, just playing out with a new cast of characters.

Now of course, the Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI) is still right there, and in theory it should work to get these guys up in Boston right away, but Cotillo even notes in his piece, this scenario remains quote “unlikely.”

So here’s how this probably plays out: If everybody stays healthy through March, Early and Tolle will need to “work on a few more things in Worcester so they’re truly ready for major league lineups.” However, if injuries pop up, then the Sox will be “so impressed” with one or both of them and they couldn’t leave them off the roster. Here, they will have “earned” that rotation spot.

Oh, and if Early or Tolle somehow do make the rotation the first swing through without any injuries, bet the farm on a contract extension being magically agreed to within days of the season starting. I mean, just look at how the big name prospects were called up last year for refence:

Kristian Campbell: Agreed to a long-term, team friendly contract in the spring, and he got a shot right away.

Marcelo Mayer: Called up in May when Alex Bregman went on the IL with a quad injury.

Roman Anthony: Called up in June when Wilyer Abreu went on the IL with an oblique injury.

Payton Tolle and Connelly Early: Called up at the end of the summer when Dick Fitts hit the IL, Walker Buehler was released, and Dustin May got injured within a couple weeks of each other.

The pattern is clear. Why would this year be any different?

Over the weekend, Payton Tolle did an interview with the Section 10 guys, and in it he mentions a recent interaction with a fan where upon confirming Tolle’s concentrating on a starting role, the fan said something along the lines of “oh, so you’re going to be starting the season in Worcester?” And I couldn’t help but laugh because that fan could easily be from one of two possible extremes — Both of which seem amazing well represented among Red Sox fans:

1. He could be your classic New England a-hole who has no problem telling anybody how much they suck to their face.
2. He could be somebody who knows exactly how service time manipulation works, how the Red Sox use it, and why Tolle is a prime candidate to experience it in 2026.

The is no in-between here!

But at the end of the day, despite that amusing little story, doesn’t this suck? Sports are supposed to be one of the last remaining bastions of spontaneous, unpredictable things in life where the human element still rules the show. And yet, when it comes to who fills out the first few trips through the rotation, we’re likely stuck with a preprogrammed script. On one hand, I get it, but on the other hand, I’m really, really underwhelmed by it.

Now, a couple final thoughts before I wrap this up.

One: I actually do think Tolle needs to spend some time in Worcester to work on his secondary pitches. He needs this better secondary stuff to complement his electric fastball and keep hitters off balance. Connelly Early however should have a real chance at getting major league starts. While not as flashy as Tolle, he has a much deeper arsenal and already knows how to use it.

Secondly, because I need to scratch this itch, I believe the bloated, oversaturated playoff field is a huge problem when it comes to treating players properly. When fewer teams make the postseason, and there’s fewer division winners to reward, there’s more pressure on clubs to put the best team possible on the field from day one. Do you remember what April and May games felt like as recently as the early 2000s when fewer teams made it to October and you had to get out of the gate hot to keep up with the Yankees and the top Wild Card team?

Part of the reason why it’s inefficient to play young players who may be better, more productive roster fits is because the sport’s overlords have devalued the 162 game season to the point that you can kind of get away with this chicanery. Not giving another inch in terms of more teams in the postseason (or even pushing to reduce the number of postseason teams) is a sneaky huge issue I’d stand firm on if I were the players in the upcoming war with the owners next winter.

In the meantime, Early and Tolle should start looking at short-term rental options in Worcester.

Let’s start off by being honest. Left field is a bit of a quagmire for the Astros as they aren’t sure if Yordan Alvarez will get a majority of the starts out there or if they can follow through with their plan to DH him. I should not that in the Hall of Fame Index I did not have a DH position, so Yordan would be categorized as a left fielder anyway. We will undoubtedly see Zach Cole there on occasion, Zach Dezenzo on occasion, and Joey Loperfido on occasion. For our purposes here, we will look at just Alvarez and Dezenzo.

However, I am throwing in one more name that is not and probably never will be an Astro. I insert him as a frame of reference. One of the things I have found is that analytics requires any number of frames of reference. I usually talk about the averages for each number we look at it, but sometimes it is informative to look at what the very best are doing. So, I am including a player that I believe to be the best overall hitter in baseball. I’m certain I will get pushback there, but I have my preferences which I will go into.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives around 30 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.

• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.

• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.

• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 75 percent is around league average.

• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Yordan Alvarez

Coming into last season, Yordan had two superpowers. He hit the ball really hard and more of his flyballs turned into dingers than any other Astro. Obviously, those numbers dipped last season in the power department, but we can probably chalk it up to the hand thing and move on. However, his chase and contact rates are also slightly above the big league average, so the key to his game is that he doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses at the plate.

Keep that socked away in your mind when we look at what to expect from him but also where to categorize him in the game. If there is a significant bounce back candidate on this squad it is Yordan. He was starting to come back late last season, but then injured his ankle running the bases (stepped funny on home plate) and was lost for the season. Just for fun, let’s compare him with the best hitter in baseball.

These are Juan Soto’s numbers. I will grant that Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani will likely have singular categories better than Soto. Luis Arreaz makes more contact than Soto. However, that is not what makes Soto the best hitter in baseball. What makes him the best hitter in baseball is the microscopic chase rate. There is no player in baseball more adept at getting on base than Soto and he succeeds in making people pay when they do come in the zone.

What strikes me is that Yordan is not that far away from Soto historically. The only category that is wildly different is the chase category. Yordan hits the ball just as hard. When you go back beyond these three seasons you see that he also has similar power numbers. If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it is probably a duck. If you put up underlying numbers that match the best hitter in baseball then you are one of the best hitters in baseball. Yordan has an opportunity to be THAT guy again. If he is THAT guy then the Astros offense becomes viable again.

Zach Dezenzo

These are mostly the minor league numbers for Dezenzo and as we can see, he did not play above AA in 2023. This hitting profile is becoming all too familiar. It looks almost identical to what Brice Mathews is bringing to the table. Not to spoil any future articles, but we will see it again with Zach Cole and Joey Loperfido. Dana Brown has a type. He likes selective hitters that hit the ball hard and have good power. Unfortunately, that usually comes with some hit and miss.

I only have the numbers to go on, but I would assume the idea is that hopefully one or two of them will make enough contact to be viable big league hitters. Most hitters are not Juan Soto or Yordan Alvarez. Those guys are the guys that get megadeals. Most hitters have a hole. The question is where do you want your hole? The Astros have chosen contact for most of their upper level prospects. Is that right way to go? What do you think?

Meet the Mets

The Mets beat Team Nicaragua 6-3 in an exhibition game before the World Baseball Classic begins. Jonah Tong made the start for the Mets, going 2.2 innings and giving up a run while striking out three. Brooks Raley and Craig Kimbrel also each gave up a run, while the other five pitchers on the Mets side escaped their appearances unscathed. It was an group effort on the offensive side as well, with Bo Bichette, Francisco Alvarez, Vidal Bruján, and Chris Cuero each driving in runs, with Bruján driving in two including the game-winning run.

After playing catch on Monday, Francisco Lindor will hopefully be able to take batting practice today, a good sign for his hope to return by Opening Day.

Nolan McLean is on the mend and with Team USA after suffering with some vertigo-like symptoms last week.

Not only is McLean likely to start for Team USA in the March 10 game against Team Italy, but he’s expected to start the final on March 17 (provided Team USA makes it).

Tom Seaver’s 1969 World Series ring sold for a tidy sum at an auction.

St. John’s University honored Shannon Forde, former Mets senior director of media relation until her untimely passing a decade ago, by presenting a jersey to her family.

Edwin Díaz went into more detail about his departure from the Mets, among other things.

Jon Heyman listed eight Mets who could make or break the Mets season.

Around the National League East

Jurickson Profar has tested positive for banned PEDs for the second year in a row and is facing a full 162-game suspension, which would encompass the entire 2026 season.

The MLB Players Association plans to challenge the suspension of Profar by the league.

Baseball Prospectus has published their season preview for the Miami Marlins.

Around Major League Baseball

MLB has compiled a guide to all the teams in each pool at the World Baseball Classic.

Behind every breakout at spring training is some eye-popping numbers.

Ken Rosenthal put out another notes article, including a dive into the special bond between two Team USA superstars.

David Schoenfield at ESPN ranked the most dominant positions in baseball.

There’s a very logical reason that would preclude Paul Skenes from pitching in a potential Word Baseball Classic Final game for Team USA.

Team USA is taking some inspiration from a all-time great American Olympian.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Lukas Vlahos wrote about the sneaky good gamble the Mets have taken on reliever Bryan Hudson.

Steve Sypa previewed the ever-present Ronny Mauricio’s 2026 season.

Lukas Vlahos also graded the Mets’ minor league roster moves.

This Date in Mets History

Six different former Mets are celebrating birthdays today.

Come Opening Day, the Yankees’ starting rotation will be far from full strength. Carlos Rodón and Gerrit Cole will both be on the injured list to begin the 2026 campaign, but the Bombers will also be without Clarke Schmidt for a significant stretch to begin the year. The right-hander is recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent during last July with the newer internal brace procedure.

Whether Schmidt will even be among the top five starters when he is able to return remains to be seen, but nonetheless, the Yankees will be without another valuable arm for much of the campaign. He has missed ample time over the last two seasons, but his performance during that stretch has been the best of his career, so the Yankees would welcome a full return from their 30-year-old starter.

2025 Stats: 14 starts, 78.2 IP, 4-4, 3.32 ERA (123 ERA+), 3.95 FIP, 4.44 xFIP, 23.1% K%, 9.5% BB%, 1.03 HR/9, 1.09 WHIP, 1.3 fWAR

2026 FanGraphs Depth Charts Projections: 3 starts, 32.0 IP, 2-2, 3.99 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 23.1% K%, 8.0% BB%, 1.17 HR/9, 1.25 WHIP, 0.3 fWAR

Schmidt debuted for the Yankees back in 2020, and after forgettable cups of coffee in that season and in 2021, the right-hander got his first real look at action the following year. The 2022 season saw him pitch in 29 games, only three of which were starts, but it was a solid body of work — a 3.12 ERA in 57.2 innings. A year later, he was a full-fledged member of that starting rotation, making 32 starts, doing so as an average back half guy, managing a 4.42 FIP in his 159 innings of work.

More recently, Schmidt is coming off of some of his best work, albeit limited due to the elbow injury. In 85.1 innings, the now 30-year-old managed a 2.85 ERA in 2024, the lowest figure or his career. His strikeout rates increased to over 25 percent, and he kept the walks at bay. When on the mound, Schmidt had shown himself to be a fairly dependable, and at times good, Major League starter. Of course, the primary issue was his ability to only stay healthy for 16 starts, though he was active as a member of the playoff rotation en route to the 2024 Fall Classic.

The good times continued in 2025, as Schmidt was nearly as good in 78.1 innings of work last season, although the peripheral numbers were slightly worse. If nothing else, the continuation of that impressive stretch likely convinced the Yankees that he could be a dependable arm every fifth day. But, once again, the injury trouble resurfaced with his aforementioned Tommy John internal brace procedure — the second TJ of his career, following a pre-draft operation in early 2017. He was sidelined in July, and likely won’t be back until the later months of the 2026 campaign.

As far as his ability is concerned, the Yankees should feel fine about Schmidt. He has posted three consecutive seasons of fine-to-very-good pitching, and has even shown flashes of excellent work on the mound. Expectations should be managed, considering the limited sample size and the significant injury, but it is fair to assume that he is a solid big-league pitcher.

The right-hander’s health, however, is the primary concern. Despite the impressive numbers, Schmidt has also posted consecutive seasons in which he basically pitched half of a full-time starter’s role. Between shoulder trouble and the elbow procedure, his health is far from a certainty. The Yankees will be without him for at least the first half of the season, and their first question will certainly be of whether he can stay on the mound for an extended period. Returning from a second Tommy John surgery only adds another hurdle. Schmidt will be familiar with the rehab grind, but one never truly knows how their elbow takes to the procedure until the possible return to game action gets closer and the intensity rises. Although we can be optimistic, the first year back—especially a partial year like this one will be—can be bumpy. A setback or two could potentially nix his 2026 as well. Will Schmidt be healthy enough for a starter’s workload by late summer?

They say you can never have enough pitching, and they say it for good reason. When Schmidt does eventually return, it will be welcomed by a Yankees staff that has several hurlers returning from significant injury. Baseball being baseball, others will likely be on the shelf by then, too. Until then, the Yankees will have to wait on Schmidt’s recovery. The latest updates say that Schmidt could be throwing bullpen sessions soon, and perhaps facing hitters in the coming month or two. Get well soon, pal.

See more of the Yankees Previews series here.

After a disappointing regular season and a shoulder injury that cost him four months worth of time, Roki Sasaki was the saving grace for the Dodgers bullpen during their most recent title run.

Sasaski was finally able to show flashes of his promising potential that was heavily advertised the offseason prior, and after his brief bullpen stint, he is now set to return to the Dodgers rotation this upcoming season. Just like how his 2025 regular season began, Sasaki has struggled mightily on the mound over his first two starts of the spring.

Sasaki allowed three runs in his first start against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, following that up by allowing another four runs against the Cleveland Guardians via a grand slam from Kyle Manzardo on Tuesday. Although the Dodgers were able to salvage both games after the right-hander’s departures, the early results have painted a bleak picture on Sasaki’s outlook ahead of opening day. Despite the struggles, the plan is to keep him in the rotation come the Dodgers opening series on March 26, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com.

“I think it can change. But I don’t think it’s gonna change before we break,” Roberts said. “Building him up, we see him as a starter, and giving him every opportunity for success. But again, we still gotta coach him up, and he’s still gotta continue to get outs and work ahead like Major League starters do.”

Links

River Ryan later came in relief during Tuesday’s contest against Cleveland, and tossed two scoreless innings while striking out three and allowing zero hits and one walk. Ryan’s stock for making the opening day rotation is rising with every appearance— especially with Blake Snell and Gavin Stone officially ruled out— but Dave Roberts won’t make any hasty decisions too early amidst the competition, per Courtney Hollmon of MLB.com.

“I think right now, where we’re at, I don’t think we need to really talk about a competition as far as the rotation. Once we get to the 21st of March, we’ll have a better idea once we break camp. But I think right now, there’s just too much that can happen.”

Dave Roberts spoke about the team’s top pitching prospect Jackson Ferris, as the left-hander has impressed with 2 2/3 scoreless innings so far this spring, per Jack Vita of the Los Angeles Times.

“I like Jackson,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said recently. “I like the player. He’s a good kid. A lot of talent. I think for me, it’s just trying to harness his arsenal. It’s a good fastball. He needs to continue to get ahead, be able to put hitters away with the secondary pitches, be efficient with his pitches per inning, but I like Jackson.”

A year ago, young right-hander Rayner Castillo was one of the fastest rising players in the system. In 2025, he spun his wheels at the High-A level, suffering from some uncharacteristic wildness and more erratic velocity. He continued to rack up ground balls, but the contact got louder and the whiffs dried up a bit. It wasn’t until late in the season when he finally put it together and started shutting teams down again. That’s just a minor setback for a 21-year-old pitcher in his first look at the High-A level, but Castillo needs to get back on horse and make progress in 2026.

Castillo was a member of the Tigers’ 2021 international free agent class out of the Dominican Republic. He was just 16 at the time, and a fairly lean, undistinguished right-hander. It took him a few years to find himself as a pitcher, but advanced strike throwing got him to the Complex League for his age 18 and 19 seasons. He finally broke into full season ball after a great Complex League showing in 2024, now 6’3” and with plenty of muscle added to him frame. The strikeouts were lacking, but Castillo was throwing a very easy 95-96 mph sinker with advanced command and getting a ton of outs on the ground. His slider flashed plus and he had the makings of a solid changeup but both were very inconsistent. Progress with his secondary pitches, especially the changeup, was the main prescription for progress in 2025.

However, we didn’t get that progress. Instead, Castillo’s easy, balanced delivery wasn’t producing quite the same velocity and he sat around 93-94 mph most of the 2025 season at High-A West Michigan. Work to tune up the movement on his slider and changeup combo led to a little more wildness than we’ve seen before from him, and he really struggled to shut down opponents with runners on base. It wasn’t until August and September that he really dialed things in and finished strong.

So, to put a positive spin on it, Castillo got a lot of experience navigating better lineups with less than his best stuff, but finished the year looking back in form. An off year is natural at his age as he stretched out to 98 2/3 innings of work. But clearly there is plenty of work ahead if he’s going to break through at the Double-A level in 2026.

Castillo’s slider is typically 83-84 mph, and in 2024 he was already showing some feel for adding depth or sweep depending on the hitter and the situation. At the same time, he would still occasionally spike one pretty badly, and we were looking for more consistency as he continued to refine the pitch. That didn’t happen until late in the 2025 season. He was less prone to completely yanking it in the dirt, but it was slower and more rounded off than sharp during the summer months, and he continued to have it back up on him at times. Most of his helium coming into the season was on the basis of his easy command of the sinker at 95-96 mph and up to 98 mph, backed by a pretty sharp slider. He lost both for long stretches in 2025, and really only in his final starts in August and September did the two pitches come back to form consistently.

Castillo’s changeup didn’t show any real signs of improvement either, and developing that third pitch was a big goal for 2025. He was throwing a circle changeup in 2024, and while he appeared to tinker with a few different variations this season, he never really got it locked in. It’s still too firm, and with the sinker diminished for much of the summer, the velocity separation was pretty poor.

So, by season’s end, we basically had the same Castillo we saw in 2024. He got back to sitting 95-96 mph with pretty easy command of the sinker. The slider got sharper and he started picking up more whiffs again. But the changeup didn’t improve much if at all. The hope is that this was just a year of growing pains. When a young pitcher makes the leap Castillo did in 2024, there’s often a period of inconsistency as they work on things and try to take the next step.

We’re going to ride with Castillo again and not drop him down in the rankings or grade for now. He won’t be 22 until June, and as long as he has the velo and the slider back this season, he should do well and advance to Double-A Erie. He’s unlikely to ever be a big-time strikeout artist, and the hard sinker and his durability and typically good strike throwing remains the foundation of his approach to hitters, but a depth starter projection is still viable. More likely, he’s a future relief option, but he’ll still have to show better command of the fastball and the slider to get there.

One of the biggest problems for the 2025 Colorado Rockies was hitting the fastball. It was such a problem that I wrote a piece in early May — which included a photo edit I’m rather proud of — highlighting the issue for the team after just a month into the season.

That was when the Rockies ranked near the bottom in most offensive counting stats and metrics against fastballs. Most things remained the same, but they did improve to the median in terms of batting average and total hits by the end of the season. The extremes still existed as they finished with the third-highest strikeout rate (20.5%), fourth-highest whiff rate (21.6%), third-fewest home runs (82), and the fourth-fewest balls in play.

In short, the team struggled mightily against fastballs and couldn’t generate much meaningful offense against them.

Fully aware of their problems, the Rockies’ new front office and coaching staff, including new hitting coach Brett Pill, have the task of helping the team cut down on the swings-and-misses and become a more productive lineup across the board. It stands to reason that the team is working to catch up on the fastball to mitigate some of the issues they were having, and the early spring training returns are promising.

Entering Tuesday, the Rockies’ offense has shown improvement and ranks among the more productive teams in spring training with promising gains in strikeout and walk numbers.

So, how are they doing with the fastball at this point in camp?

Thankfully, Baseball Savant has provided insight via Statcast for our search today.

For this investigation, fastballs include four-seams, two-seam/sinkers, and cutters. So, unless specifically identified, the numbers will involve how the Rockies are doing against all forms of the fastball.

A simple indicator of success will always be batting average, and the Rockies aren’t doing too shabbily a few weeks into camp. Sporting a .290 AVG, the club ranks ninth in all of baseball, right in line with the Seattle Mariners (.291) and the Boston Red Sox (.292). They are still well behind the San Francisco Giants, who sit at a dazzling .364 AVG on fastballs.

What’s interesting is that the Rockies have seen far fewer fastballs than the majority of the top 10 teams in batting average. At this point in spring training, the league average of fastballs hitters have seen is 57.4%. The Rockies have seen 55%, which ranks near the bottom of baseball despite seeing the ninth-most total pitches. An influx of breaking balls early in camp is to be expected as pitchers try to dial things in and experiment with new pitches, but the work the team has been able to do against fastballs is promising.

Making contact is priority number one to cut down on whiff rate, and the Rockies are making steady progress. At 18.4%, the Rockies have the fourth-lowest whiff rate against fastballs in baseball, with a 16.7% strikeout rate, which sits just below league average.

Fastballs in General

In the brief sample size, it’s clear the Rockies are putting into practice what they are preaching about improving control of the zone and taking advantage of the fastball. While coaching certainly plays a major part in the growth, personnel also have their role.

The Rockies made it a point this offseason to bring in players with improved plate discipline and contact abilities. Willi Castro and Jake McCarthy have proven capable in their careers at making contact, particularly against the fastball. At his best in 2023, Edouard Julien was a menace against fastballs, and rookie hopeful T.J. Rumfield made a career in the minors with elite plate discipline and contact skills.

Check out this chart of players who have seen at least 50 pitches, sorted by batting average, and how the Rockies are doing individually against fastballs.

It’s promising to see young prospects like Cole Carrigg and Charlie Condon top the list, but the players who are seeing a good bit of action are finding success against fastballs. If you expand the search to include everyone, Mickey Moniak, Brenton Doyle, Kyle Karros and Willi Castro make appearances with high batting averages in the .400 range.

Additionally, limiting the whiff rate to a sub-20% for the majority of players would go a long way to improving the Rockies’ offense throughout the system. Even more important is limiting strikeouts on fastballs, especially as camp progresses and both pitchers and hitters get up to game speed for the regular season.

There will always be concerns for players like Jordan Beck, who have the possibility of a power stroke, which would mean more strikeouts, but he is an example of a player who has to dial in on fastballs and make sure he isn’t missing opportunities against them.

Four-Seam Fastballs

What about the most fundamental pitch, the four-seam fastball?

Well, the Rockies are proving quite capable against the four-seam fastball with a .321 AVG, ranking fourth in all of baseball. Their .590 SLG also ranks third in the league, and the 17.9% whiff is the second lowest. A team 14.5% strikeout rate also ranks as the third-lowest in baseball.

As a whole, 15 players are batting over .300 against four-seam fastballs, albeit in limited sample sizes. The whiff rates are elevated, but it’s worth noting that on both four-seam fastballs and fastballs in general, the team is hitting the ball hard when they do make contact. They are at a 50% hard-hit rate against both four-seam fastballs and fastballs in general, both of which rank near the top in baseball.

The high slugging is also encouraging to see and will be most beneficial come the regular season. A pitcher is most likely to throw a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat, and if Rockies hitters can put competitive swings on on that first pitch, it could set a tone for the offense. The first pitch of the game on February 25 that Moniak blasted for a 375-foot home run is a prime example of jumping on a first-pitch fastball.

Conclusion

Jumping on fastballs, particularly early in counts, could go a long way to helping the Rockies combat a tendency to chase pitches the longer at-bats go on. Yes, it is early in spring training with small sample sizes; however, there are promising signs that the team is turning some things around. If they can continue showing improvement, especially when pitchers start using proper scouting reports leading up to the regular season, the offense could rectify the shortcomings of 2025.

Affected by Altitude Episode 201: The First Letters from Camp Schaeffer | Rocky Mountain Rooftop

This week, Evan Lang and I talk about the injuries in spring training, the first base battle, and the early impressions of the new faces brought into camp.

Led by nation’s 2 best pitchers, Colombia eyes deep run at World Baseball Classic | MLB.com

Jose Quintana didn’t get to throw much in games for the Rockies before heading out to anchor the rotation for Team Colombia in the WBC. He is the winningest Colombian-born pitcher in MLB history, but was forced to miss the 2023 World Baseball Classic after sustaining a rib injury in spring training. He is the team captain and will toss their first game against Puerto Rico.

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Mike Elias made a couple of unexpected trades this offseason. One was the trade for Shane Baz, a 26-year-old starting pitcher who has shown promise but mixed results in his Major League career. The Orioles sent three young prospects, including two first-round picks, to the Rays in exchange for Baz. The Rays also received a competitive balance draft pick in the deal. It was a big haul for the Rays, but the Orioles got back a pitcher who has three years before free agency.

After an injury-shortened but successful 2024 season, Baz struggled in 2025 with a 4.87 ERA in 31 starts for the Rays. For those looking for a silver lining in that high ERA, Baz had a respectable 3.86 ERA in 15 road starts to go along with an atrocious 5.90 home ERA. The Rays played their 2025 home games at Steinbrenner Field, the spring training home of the New York Yankees. That park is not suitable for regular Major League baseball, but the Rays were forced there after Hurricane Milton destroyed the roof on Tropicana Field.

Baz allowed 26 home runs last year, 18 of which came at Steinbrenner Field. His BABIP at home was .323 vs .283 on the road. Meanwhile, his walk rate and strikeout rate were quite similar regardless of where he pitched. After the trade, Mike Elias raved about Baz, saying, “He’s got great underlying metrics, five plus pitches. I think he’s got a great arm and he’s a great athlete, and I think he hasn’t fully tapped into his ceiling yet, so we see him as a front-end-of-the-rotation starter.”

So what do you think will happen? Will Baz rise above his poor Steinbrenner Field numbers to help the Orioles improve in 2026? Or was Mike Elias a chump to send so many prospects to to the Rays in exchange for a 4.87 ERA pitcher? Here are Baz’s projections from ZiPS and Baseball Reference:

• ZiPS: 27 GS, 141 IP, 4.27 ERA, 20 HR
• Baseball Reference: 151 IP, 4.29 ERA, 21 HR, 1.258 WHIP

What are your expectations?