Sep 23, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; New York Mets third baseman Bo Bichette (19) and third baseman Brett Baty (7) hug after defeating the against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
Meet the Mets
The Mets launched three home runs to defeat the Rangers and take the series. Juan Soto, Marcus Semien, and Brett Baty all left the yard while Nolan McLean pitched seven solid innings. The Mets have an opportunity to sweep the series with Zac Thornton on the mound in the finale this afternoon.
Green’s past experience with struggle both as a manager and a player has made him the perfect person to take over managerial duties and put this season behind them.
The Columbus Blue Jackets have 7 days until opening night at Nationwide Arena. Today, we look at the history of jersey #7.
Let's take a look.
Deron Quint - 2001-2002 - Drafted by Winnipeg in 1994.
Quint played 132 games with Columbus in the early days. He scored 14 goals and had 48 points, and he led the Jackets in minutes played per game.
He left for Europe in 2004 and played in Italy, Switzerland, Germany, and Russia. He retired in 2017.
Scott Lachance - 2003-2004 - Drafted by the New York Islanders in 1991.
He played 138 games in Columbus and had five total points. He never played another NHL game after leaving Columbus and retired in 2007 after playing a season in the AHL.
Nowadays, He's the Head of U.S. Scouting for the New Jersey Devils.
John Moore - 2011 - Drafted by Columbus in 2009.
Moore only played 86 games in Columbus and had 8 points. On April 3, 2013, Moore was included in the Derick Brassard deal with the New York Rangers that brought Marián Gáborík to Columbus.
He last played for the Anaheim Ducks.
On March 19, 2022, Moore was involved in a trade that sent him to the Anaheim Ducks along with Urho Vaakanainen in exchange for Hampus Lindholm. The Ducks then attempted to trade both Moore and the rest of Ryan Kesler's contract to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for Evgenii Dadonov and a conditional second-round pick at the NHL trade deadline on March 21, 2022. However, the deal was disputed due to a no-trade clause in Dadonov's contract. On March 23, the NHL officially cancelled the trade; therefore, Moore remained in the Ducks' organization.
Jeff Carter - 2012 - Drafted by Philadelphia in 2003.
Carter played less than one season in Columbus before forcing his way out via trade to the LA Kings.
On Feb. 23, 2012, the Blue Jackets traded the disgruntled forward to the LA Kings in exchange for Jack Johnson and a conditional first-round pick in the 2013 NHL Draft.
Jeff Carter was booed by Columbus fans until the day he retired on April 17, 2024.
Jack Johnson - 2012-2018 - Drafted by Carolina in 2005.
Johnson played 486 games for Columbus after being traded from the LA Kings for Jeff Carter. He scored 36 goals and had 156 points in seven years.
He's bounced around since leaving Columbus, but finally won a Stanley Cup in 2022. He found his way back to Cannon City in the summer of 2024. Unfortunately for Johnson, he only played in 41 games for Columbus last year and had 6 points.
He and Head Coach Dean Evason didn't see eye to eye, leading to Johnson being scratched for most of the season. Johnson's family even boycotted the family day held ahead of the 2025 Stadium Series Game at Ohio Stadium.
Gavin Bayreuther - 2021 - Undrafted out of
Canaan, New Hampshire.
Bayreuther played 103 games for Columbus and totaled 23 points over three seasons. He also played for the Dallas Stars.
He was made famous in 2021 when he was selected by the Seattle Kraken in the NHL Expansion Draft. One week later, he signed a two-year deal with Columbus, marking the end of his long tenure with Seattle.
After playing in Switzerland for
Lausanne HC two seasons ago, he returned to North America last season to play for the Chicago Wolves of the AHL.
He doesn't have a contract yet for this season, but owns and runs the Bayreuther Hockey Club, which is a development program in Maine for young hockey players.
Sean Kuraly - 2022-2025 - Drafted by San Jose in 2011.
The Columbus-area native has played 292 games for Columbus after coming home. He scored 40 goals and totaled 85 points in four seasons, beating his totals for Boston in 270 games.
After the 24-25 season, Kuraly signed back in Boston, where it all began for him. He played for the Ohio AAA Blue Jackets 18U team and spent four years at Miami University in Oxford from 2012 to 2016.
Every now and then, something dramatic is required. No one could blame Sylvain Houles for threatening to quit rugby league if his Toulouse Olympique team were replaced in Super League next season by London Broncos. After all, he has just taken them to eighth in the table on half funding, finishing above their rivals Catalans Dragons for the first time in 25 years in the process.
The rumour that Toulouse could be ranked 14th by IMG and relegated has since been quashed – to every sane league fan’s relief. Shane Richardson, the NRL head of strategy, says the aim is to build the code’s presence in France, not slash it in half.
LOS ANGELES — Yoshinobu Yamamoto sat in the dugout. He had just finished pitching six innings in his final start of the regular season on Wednesday, Sept. 23 and one of the first things he did was bury his head in his notebook as he began to write.
The Los Angeles Dodgers' ace had posted a mixed bag in a 5-1 loss to the San Diego Padres in their penultimate home game before the postseason. Yamamoto was confident in his gameplan, which may have included throwing his four-seam fastball at a far lower clip (13%) than his usual usage rate of 27%. Instead, he threw his sinker more often, which he says wasn't predetermined but rather he threw pitches that he felt fit each situation.
But there was one that kept nagging at Yamamoto for the rest of the night.
In the top of the fourth inning, Yamamoto threw a first pitch sinker to Manny Machado. His intention was to throw it high and get the Padres' three-hole hitter to chase, but instead it fell just on the inner half of the plate – exactly the location where Machado has a .709 career slugging percentage – and he instantly made Yamamoto pay by sending it over the fence in straightaway center field.
To make matters worse, Yamamoto had plunked the previous batter, Dustin Harris, so it ended up being a two-run homer to push San Diego ahead.
"I felt really frustrated about that," Yamamoto said through an interpreter. "I also need to reflect deeply on the play after that, and I want to look back and review the video carefully."
It wasn't his sharpest outing of 2026, but it wasn't his worst, either. And more importantly than anything else that transpired on the diamond on Wednesday night at Dodger Stadium, Yamamoto finished his 28th start of the year. That means he's now gotten through each of the last two seasons having posted all of his scheduled outings. He doesn't expect it to be his last time accomplishing that feat, either.
"While it's a very difficult task," Yamamoto said. "I want to keep leveling up so that doing so becomes my absolute minimum goal going forward."
During his pregame comments, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said: "For me, players that you gravitate towards, and that you really love to have and you can't have enough of them, are dependable players. And Yoshinobu is very dependable. He's probably had one or two clunkers this year, but everything outside of that has been six innings plus. Very consistent. You know what you're going to get and when the moments get big, he certainly rises to those occasions."
Case in point, his 2025 postseason run in which he threw two complete games for the Dodgers, including one in the Game 2 of the World Series. Then of course, was his mythological outing in Game 7 when Yamamoto threw 2⅔ scoreless innings, a day after throwing 96 pitches in Game 6, to seal back-to-back championships for LA.
"He'll never say it outwardly, but he takes pride in being there for his teammates and knowing that he's the best option," Roberts said. "He's one of the more underappreciated pitchers in all of baseball."
Entering this year's postseason, Yamamoto says that he feels similar to how he did last fall. His confidence was never really part of the equation; it was the fact that he finished the season healthy. When his condition is in a good spot, Yamamoto feels like he can prepare well enough to face whatever and whoever might be facing him in the batter's box come October.
One of those possibilities just might be the Padres.
The divisional foes have also become a familiar face in the playoffs as well considering the two SoCal sides have squared off three times in the last three years, the most recent being the Dodgers' comeback from down 2-1 in the best of five NLDS in which they shut out the Padres and ended their season on 24 consecutive scoreless innings.
The bad blood hasn't been lost on either team or fanbase, as seen by the thunderous boos Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. routinely receive by the Dodger Stadium faithful as the possibility of yet another meeting in October loomed in the background.
"It's in there," Roberts said. "Looking at the five other teams that potentially we could play, and these guys are one of them. Certainly, we're playing them recently, we're pretty familiar with these guys. Gathering information on (Robbie) Ray and their guys in the pen, (Michael) King yesterday and we'll see (Nick) Pivetta tomorrow, so certainly."
When assessing his entire 2026, Yamamoto naturally knows there are parts of his game that he needs to adjust but maintained that his feel for the ball has been in a good spot throughout the second half of the season. He feels he's grown as his third season in the big leagues has unfolded, he's in shape, and he'll be ready to help the Dodgers on their quest for a historic World Series three-peat.
"Heading into October," Yamamoto said. "I want to prepare well and do my best so that we can be the best pitching staff possible."
A lot of people are blasting the Cubs’ fluctuating bullpen performance Tuesday night for the loss, and rightly so.
But I first wanted to point out a problem from that game. For most of the season, when the bottom part of the order is contributing, the top part of it explodes. I wish I wrote it down, and I’m sure someone out there recalls it, but there was a graphic that said that the Cubs’ number nine hitter has the highest or second highest OPS (?) in baseball. I swear I saw something like that. The trouble Tuesday was that not only was the bottom third of the lineup dead — so was the middle third.
PCA, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch combined for a productive 5-for-14 with four walks, two runs scored, two doubles and a stolen base. The bottom six (most of the usual suspects) were a combined 2-for-30 with an RBI. THAT ….. is a large outage, and put the team in the position to have to depend on the bullpen.
First off, Shota Imanaga gave up a run on four hits, no walks and seven strikeouts in five innings pitched. He threw around half of his pitches in the fourth inning, but battled through to keep the Marlins within reach, 1-0, before handing the game over to the bullpen.
In comes Aaron Civale, and on his second pitch, he gave up a solo home run to Kyle Stowers into a roaring wind to make the game 2-0. Civale provided no more damage, and Ryan Rolison, Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn kept the game scoreless. A total of 5.1 scoreless innings (following the HR allowed by Civale). All and all, excellent work for the guys Counsell has turned to most often.
But then he had to turn to Caleb Thielbar and Edward Cabrera. Thielbar entered the game in the 11th with one out and coerced a pair of outs to get out of the inning. But NO! Thielbar started the 12th! And he gave up a pair of RBI singles for a 4-2 deficit. Counsell turned to Cabrera, who turned into a bubbling mess — walk, HBP, RBI-walk, RBI-single, and two-RBI single for an 8-2 deficit. Cabrera appeared to be left in there to wear it and save the rest of the pen.
So, yes, it was the bullpen that lost it, but with only one-third of a productive Cubs’ lineup, that lack of offense couldn’t produce more than a minimal amount of runs, causing that high-leverage need from the bullpen.
I appreciate your reading.
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Tuesday Night’s Game Stories:
Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Cubs’ clinch put on hold after rocky 12-inning loss to Marlins. “The Cubs are on the cusp of clinching their second consecutive trip to the postseason, but the champagne will need to be kept on ice at least one more night.”
Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Alex Bregman Tracking Pitches in Cage, Won’t Need IL. “Alex Bregman arrived at Wrigley on Tuesday afternoon looking exactly like a guy who was just two days removed from taking a foul ball to the face.”
Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): After In-Season Pitch Mix Overhaul, Ryan Rolison is a Whole New Dude. “Over the winter, the Cubs scooped up Ryan Rolison on the waiver wire. This spring, he showed up with an uptick in velocity sufficient to make him a viable big-leaguer. Since the season began, though, he’s gone to a different level, thanks to two major tweaks to his pitch mix.”
Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Lack of Execution in Tuesday’s Loss Highlights Postseason Fears. “With some notable exceptions, postseason baseball typically involves tighter games that require a higher degree of execution than some Tuesday night affair against a non-contender.”
Green, Spencer, and Kirwan left the band in succession during 1970–1972, with McVie’s wife, singer/keyboardist Christine McVie, and American singer/guitarist Bob Welch joining during this period. 1974 saw the band’s relocation to the United States and Welch’s departure.
Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 23: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. #27 of the Toronto Blue Jays watches the game in the seventh inning during game two of a double header against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 23, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Yankees handled Tampa Bay for the second time in as many days, blowing them out 9-2 behind a pair of Ben Rice home runs as well as a Ryan McMahon grand slam. Of course, there was another game played in between that didn’t go New York’s way, but overall they’ve had a solid series against the Rays as they’ll look to win it outright later tonight as a potential precursor to an ALDS matchup. While the last few games don’t really matter to New York as they’re locked into the top Wild Card seed, they do matter around the rest of the league with both the Central and West still up for grabs and the final Wild Card slots undecided. With that in mind, let’s see what went down on Wednesday to impact the race.
Boston Red Sox (85-73) 1, Cleveland Guardians (82-76) 0
Boston has a spot in the playoffs, but they have to do a little more work to secure the fifth seed and finalize a meeting with the Yankees in the Bronx a few days from now. They moved closer to that goal with a win over Cleveland, though it was a nailbiter when it had no real business being one.
Sonny Gray and Foster Griffin had a close-fought pitchers’ duel in this one, though Griffin was walking a tightrope the entire time. The Sox collected 10 hits against him in six innings but managed to scrape across only a single run in his final frame of work, Andruw Monasterio delivering the RBI single that scored Jarren Duran. Otherwise, Griffin managed to strand two in the first inning, induced a double play to get around an error in the second, left the bases loaded in the third, worked his only clean inning in the fourth, and then stranded two more in the fifth.
Gray, as mentioned, held serve for six innings of his own scattering four hits with no damage done. Tyron Guerrero, Garrett Whitlock, and Aroldis Chapman combined to take the final three innings and continued holding Cleveland’s offense down to secure the 1-0 win with Chapman getting his 35th save of the season.
American League Rock Fight
Chicago White Sox (81-77) 4, Kansas City Royals (68-90) 5: So with the Guardians losing to Boston, could Chicago take advantage and bring the AL Central back to a tie? Unfortunately for them, they gave up a four-spot to Kansas City to open this game, Bryan Hudson getting chased after recording just one out of the inning with three runs already in. A throwing error on top of a single brought home the fourth to cap it off, but the White Sox actually tied the game back up in the third with a four-spot of their own. A pair of hits and a hit-by-pitch loaded the bases for Kyle Teel who singled in a pair before Miguel Vargas and Munetaka Murakami each drove in another run. All was quiet again until the seventh, when Maikel Garcia doubled home Bobby Witt Jr. to score the game-winning run, holding Chicago a game behind Cleveland for first place for one more day.
Houston Astros (78-80) 5, Seattle Mariners (74-80) 6 (10 innings): Well how about out West, where fans have been begging for literally any one of these teams to pull themselves out of the pile and take the division. Houston’s held the biggest lead most recently, but they’ve squandered that advantage and failed to hold onto this one after jumping ahead 4-0 midway through the third by giving three of those runs back immediately in the bottom half. Seattle then tied it in the fifth inning on a Dominic Canzone single, and though there were a few chances no one else scored until extras. There, Houston opened with a Yainer Diaz RBI triple but couldn’t bring home Diaz for the insurance run that proved essential. In the bottom half, a trio of walks forced in the tying run and brought Josh Naylor to the plate, who singled up the middle to walk this one off.
I’m not saying it’s in any way likely, but for context of how absurd this division has been — Seattle has been eliminated from Wild Card contention, but this win keeps them mathematically alive in the AL West race. This division is seriously flirting with having the first winner with a losing record in MLB history, so really who knows how this one finishes out.
Texas Rangers (78-80) 2, New York Mets (73-85) 7: Naturally, the Rangers were unfit to take command as well and blew it late to the Mets. This game was tied at two entering the eighth inning when Marcus Semien hit a go-ahead solo shot, and then the Mets piled on with a Brett Baty grand slam in the top of the ninth for insurance.
Baltimore Orioles (77-81) 4, Toronto Blue Jays (77-81) 2: These two got rained out yesterday requiring a doubleheader, and Baltimore got the better of them in the opening tilt. The O’s got on the board first with two runs in the second on a Jeremiah Jackson RBI single before a double steal attempt brought in another run. Then they extended their lead in the fifth with some pop, Pete Alonso launching his 41st home run of the year to make it 4-0. The Jays clawed back two in the sixth after chasing their old friend Chris Bassitt from the game, but could get no further.
Baltimore Orioles (78-81) 4, Toronto Blue Jays (77-82) 2: No, that’s not a mistake – The O’s went out and swept the doubleheader with the same score. This time Baltimore opened the game with three runs on a two-run Christian Encarnacion-Strand single and RBI double from Colton Cowser. Encarnacion-Strand hit a solo homer in the fourth to give the Orioles their offense, and Toronto was dormant until a ninth inning rally where Davis Schneider hit a two-run shot to cut the deficit in half. The next two Jays went down to end it though, and with the pair of losses Toronto not only swaps places with Baltimore in the standings but the reigning AL champs have officially been eliminated from postseason contention. It’s been a far fall for the Blue Jays this year, and now they’ll have to watch on the couch as the rest of the East battles it out this year. Even the O’s are still mathematically alive in the Wild Card with these wins and a Chicago loss, though there is no margin for error.
The first sign of progress in the Mike Elias era came with a small consequence. The Orioles finally fell out of the top 10 in the 2023 MLB draft. The Orioles selected Enrique Bradfield Jr. with the 17th overall pick that year.
At the time, Bradfield was billed as a plus defender with elite speed. The Vanderbilt product was never expected to develop into a power threat, but he boasted plenty of potential as a table-setter. The question was simple. Would his bat develop to a point that allowed him to utilize his other tools at the Major League level?
It’s been four seasons, and we’re still asking the same question. Bradfield played 15 games at Triple-A in 2025. He entered the 2026 season hoping to make his major league debut, but the call never came.
Bradfield faced some adversity early in the year. He missed seven weeks after a collision in the outfield and a painful swing led to an injury with his left hand. Eventually, he returned and slashed .263/.344/.363 over 88 games with the Tides.
To the surprise of no one, Bradfield made the most impact with his speed. The 24-year-old set a single-season Norfolk record with 36 stolen bases. He tallied 12 doubles, four triples, and four home runs, but several of his 63 runs scored came after a single/walk and an extra base.
The Orioles entered 2026 hoping to compete in the AL East. Even with a light bat, there’s a place for guys like Bradfield on a contender. Many envisioned the prospect using his speed and defense to help in late-game situations down the stretch. With Jorge Mateo and Cedric Mullins long gone, that role appeared to be available.
Unfortunately, the Orioles failed to play like contenders. The American League allowed Baltimore to hang around in the wild card chase, but the team still sold at the trade deadline. Baltimore opted to deploy midseason acquisitions like Christian Franklin and Rece Hinds over Bradfield. Even Heston Kjerstad, another first-rounder under Elias, got some late season action. But Bradfield remained at Triple-A.
With the way the season played out, Bradfield needed to beat down the door to get the call to the bigs. The former first-round pick heated up with a .300/.356/.375 line in the month of June, but his numbers cooled a bit during the hottest months of the year.
Many have wondered if Bradfield would get a late-season cup of coffee, but the league’s unclear future may have spoiled the opportunity. As of now, the MLB owners and players appear incredibly far apart on a new labor agreement. With the CBA set to expire shortly after the World Series, there’s a legitimate chance that games are missed next season.
Minor league baseball could still continue as planned, but players on team’s 40-man roster would not participate. As of now, Bradfield is not on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. Bradfield will eventually need protected from the Rule-5 draft, but the timing of the draft appears dependent on a new CBA.
Only the Orioles know if this actually impacted the way they handled Bradfield in September. Either way, Bradfield should debut in 2027 (if the season takes place).
What type of role can we expect for Bradfield when he finally reaches the show? The speed and defense present a solid floor as a fourth outfielder. He’ll likely need to prove he can hit major league pitching if he hopes to grow into an everyday player.
The Orioles have struggled to get the most out of young players with above average hit tools. Gunnar Henderson has disappointed over the last two seasons. Colton Cowser hit a wall after an impressive rookie campaign, and Jackson Holliday has yet to meet the expectations that come with going 1/1 in the draft. The organization appears to be shaking things up with the departure of Matt Blood and reassignment of Sig Mejdal, but it’s clear that somethings need to change.
One thing we know about the Orioles is that they are going to hide young left-handers against left-handed pitching. Bradfield slashed .272/.355/.374 against righties this year compared to a .231/.340/.330 against southpaws. Cowser, another glove-first center fielder, hit an abysmal .164/.242/.218 against lefties in 2026, so it’s not as if there is a natural platoon spot available.
I’ve always felt that Bradfield passes the eye test when watching him play in the minors. He carries himself like a big fielder, and he would likely represent an immediate improvement over guys like Dylan Beavers in the outfield. He demonstrated his potential with team Panama at the World Baseball Classic back in March.
Leody Taveras and Luis Robert Jr. will probably play somewhere else next season. Beavers, Cowser, and Tyler O’Neill will all return, but it’s unclear whether Franklin, Hinds or Kjerstad will carve out any type of role with the team. Bradfield has yet to answer the questions about his bat, but these things take time. He’ll enter 2027 with the same potential as he did in years past.
CHICAGO, IL - APRIL 05: Mark Williams #15 of the Phoenix Suns slam dunks during the second half against the Chicago Bulls on April 5, 2026 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Melissa Tamez/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Every day, we’re previewing another member of the 2026-27 Phoenix Suns to get you ready for training camp and the preseason.
Mark Williams
Center, 7’1”, 240 pounds, 24 years old, 5th season
This season was going to be big for Williams to see if last year’s off-court strengthening work and rest management would pay off in the form of healthy feet and back, allowing him to demonstrate his full potential. Entering his age-25 season, ready to hit his prime and more consistently deliver the strengths seen in the highlight video below. That plan took a major detour when he injured his left labrum in a training pickup game earlier this month, having repair surgery on September 10. Recovery has been estimated at five months.
This accelerated Khaman Maluach’s timeline, which could prove to be a good thing. Undoubtedly, it reduced the Suns’ center depth for at least 3/4 of the regular season. He contributed a career-best 6.3 win shares, most of that on the offensive side, and, by all accounts, was a good teammate, often injecting himself into post-game TV interviews. The team believed in his value, signing him to a guaranteed three-year $38 million contract in the offseason.
I think he’ll find a way to have a valuable role later this year…more to come in the “Prediction” section below.
Last Season
GP
MIN
PPG
RPG
APG
BLK
FG%
3PT%
FT%
OFFRTG
DEFRTG
+/- (TOTAL)
60
23.6
11.7
8.0
1.0
0.9
64.4%
1.000%
77.1%
111.3
113.3
-42
Williams started 55 of the 60 games played. He rested back-to-back games as part of injury management on the back and foot. This worked well much of the season, but then he had recurrences of left foot injuries in March and April.
He had a field goal percentage over 64%, making good on a shot chart-dense area near the basket. But he continues to show good touch on free throws, with a career make rate of 76% and over 78% the past two seasons. This suggests some untapped ability to shoot. His shot volume limited points to 11.7 per game.
Rebounding of 8.0 per game seems a bit low until you account for this coming on under 24 minutes (or half a game). Offensive rebounding was strong, ranking 13th in the NBA at 4.7 per 36 minutes.
There were some flashy blocks, but overall rim protection was less than ideal. Better offensive performance is reflected in higher offensive win shares (4.0) compared to defensive win shares (2.3), per Basketball Reference.
Contract and Roster Context
Mark begins the season inactive due to the injury. This season’s Salary is $11,728,395, ramping to $12,666,667 in 2027-28 and $13,604,938 in 2028-2029.
All three years are guaranteed. He is not eligible to be traded until after January 15, 2027. He is expected to still be in recovery from the labral injury at that point, likely into March. Even then, to be traded would require passing a physical and demonstrating on some level that his skills have not diminished.
What He Brings
Williams is elite as a finisher, shooting 67.2% at the rim per BBALL Index. He has good hands and is somewhat aggressive running the floor and rolling on half-court possessions. Watching games, it felt like there was an unusually high rate of rim rolls where the pass never came. If trust is further developed with Book and the playmakers, this strength could be magnified.
As mentioned in the review of last season, he is particularly effective as an offensive rebounder. Part of this involves his positioning, which was rarely toward the perimeter. Only 12 players in the NBA were better per minute at grabbing them; it’s a skill, and he has it.
Something long-time Suns fans craved was a center with real size and skill. When healthy, Williams provided this. In addition to the height/weight combination at the top of this article, he has a wingspan over 7’6” and a 9’9” standing reach! On defense, this helps as a rim deterrent and also allows some big lineups when matchups call for it.
What Needs to Improve
The obvious thing is availability. We know he will miss the majority of the regular season. Upon that return, can he string together a stretch of games with no setbacks or new injuries? Will all the strength training and extra rest during labrum recovery benefit foot and back health?
There is potential for him to be a more consistent force on defense. Better lower-body strength and conditioning may help with this. Being around the system for a second year could lead to better defensive positioning, specifically avoiding dropping too low in the post.
To be fully effective in the Suns’ offense, he needs to provide the occasional threat of an outside shot. He only got up one three-pointer last year (making it). Can he get up on a game and make some of those, even if below average?
Prediction
The line below is lower than Williams’ prior four seasons. I expect there will be some low-minute games as he works his way back, which will skew the per-game averages downward. There are 14 games from the five-month timetable post-surgery. Two of those are back-to-back, and I suspect he’ll be held out of those.
I expect a different role, backing up Maluach, unless spot starts are needed due to injuries there. He could provide good value here in the limited minutes, crashing the glass and providing some post presence. Note, I’ve projected 28% three-point percentage. My hot take is that he’ll use the left shoulder rehab time working on his long-range shooting (which is right-handed), and use the late-season minutes to test this in real games. The free-throw percentages project a chance at developing a three-ball, which Ott likes to see from his big men.
The Boston Celtics alone provide three examples of injured bigs returning for a playoff run and making a big difference: Bill Walton (’86), Kevin McHale (’87), and Robert Williams (’22). The best hope this year is to return and make a real difference off the bench in the playoffs.
Some have probably written off Williams after yet another injury. Given the health history, it would be unwise to go into a future season counting on him as a nightly starter. I suggest we view his contributions as an added bonus, one that could help the Suns take it to another level if Maluach has asserted himself as the starter.
TORONTO, CANADA - MAY 01: RJ Barrett #9 of the Toronto Raptors speaks to the media after defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers 112-110 in Game Six of the First Round of the NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena on May 01, 2026 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Cole Burston/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Duke of York isn’t done with Toronto yet. At least, if everything goes according to plan.
After being traded from the Knicks, RJ Barrett went on to have his best scoring season in 2024-25 , where he stepped up in a big way to give the Raptors momentum with Scottie Barnes out for a chunk of the season.
Then, in the 2025-26 season, Barrett helped get the Raptors back to the playoffs as the team’s second-highest scorer (ahead of Barnes), and in the playoffs, emerged as the team’s second-best player. Then, in game six of the first round, he makes what is perhaps the second clutch-est shot in Raptors team history to beat the Cavaliers and forcing a game seven. All together, this sounds like the recipe for a great career ahead in Toronto. Add in the fact that he’s Canadian, and the Raptors should be chomping at the bit for a chance to keep him on the team. But, there is some reluctance from the Raptors to buy-in on the Maple Mamba. Here’s an examination of why that might be.
On the court
RJ Barrett fills an important role on the team, being able to get buckets with his downhill momentum, scoring at the rim while both rebounding and passing a respectable amount. While his shooting is not a remarkable part of his game, it’s not completely without value, and Barrett’s utility as an offensive creator had been sorely needed on the Raptors squads of the past two years.
From a less tangible standpoint, Barrett has been willing to take on primary roles, as well as secondary and tertiary positions on the team, and demonstrates a general lack of ego on a roster with a great deal of personalities in its locker room. In regards to the Canadian now playing alongside Raptors legend Kawhi Leonard, RJ spoke on how it felt to share a team with the Klaw, saying that “it’s surreal…” and that he has “been a Raptors fan [his] whole life…” and “from being a fan, to now being able to play with him, it’s going to be so special.”
RJ Barrett on waiting on the Kawhi Leonard trade to finalize all summer long/now playing alongside him:
“When it first happened, I was like, ‘Let me just not try to think about it, and just wait for it to happen.’”
There is also the matter of Canadian identity. Barrett is one of the most prominent Canadians in the NBA, and this part of who he is (while under-explored by the franchise) is something that should be factored in to his desire to be on his country’s only team.
All together, RJ Barrett has not only proved his capabilities, but has shown dedication to the Raptors, and a desire to mold himself to the Raptors’ new lineup. However, that may not be enough to ensure his place on the team. More could be asked of Barrett, with the team requesting a price that is not always easy to pay.
The salary question
Potential problems emerge when the Raptors’ circumstances are examined from a financial perspective. The Raps are already in a position where they are paying the luxury tax, but real consequences arise when the first and second tax aprons are hit, where severe financial and operational penalties involving trades are accrued. This is a less than ideal situation, but one that might become a frightening reality going forward.
Barrett is now in the final year of his deal, and is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this year, unless a deal can be reached to extend his contract. This is coming at a time when the team has just taken on a Kawhi Leonard extension, Jakob Poeltl is set to get a raise, and all together, costs will rise for the Raptors, even factoring out a hypothetical RJ Barrett contract.
Barrett is currently coming off of a deal where he will make north of $29 million in the 2026-27 season. The season after, the Raptors are currently projected to have a salary of $181,907,409. This is well above the current salary cap of $164,961,000, and and if Barrett were to simply continue taking his current salary, this would bring the Raptors to more than $211 million dollars in pay, taking them into the first apron. Generally speaking, discounts from players are not given lightly to teams, and with RJ having put in real work for the Raps, he would, under usual circumstances, be in the position to make some demands of the team.
Fire and desire
Barrett spoke candidly about his feelings in May, putting things plainly: “I want to be here,” he said. “I want to be here for the rest of my career. I don’t ever want to leave. I don’t have any problems openly saying that.”
RJ Barrett on dealing with the business-side going into a contract year:
“What do you think?”
“I think that this is an easier question for me to answer, because I’m from here, and who doesn’t want to play at home? I’m trying to stay here.”
This puts both parties in an uneven position. Barrett clearly has a desire to remain in the red and black, but would very possibly have to take a pay cut to do so. General Manager Bobby Webster gave no indication of whether or not an extension was in the works, noting that such conversations would be taking place out of the public eye, stating that “he is under contract, and so, that decision can also happen at the end of the summer.”
While Barrett’s desire to stay in Toronto seems unwavering, the team’s desire to keep Barrett on the roster seems like anything but. Insider Jake Fischer raised the point over the summer that throughout the past two years, RJ Barrett’s name had been floating in trade talks, with the Maple Mamba’s future on the team seeming rather insecure. Michael Scotto reported in February that Barrett could very well have been shipped off to the Sacramento Kings in a deal for Domantas Sabonis.
Barrett is in some regards the black sheep of the Raptors. He does not shoot like Immanuel Quickley, nor does he pass and defend like Scottie Barnes, and while his scoring is certainly important to team success, score-first players are becoming less and less valued outside of the upper echelons of production in this league. Kawhi Leonard does exactly that, at a level higher than almost anyone in the league. Barrett might be too good to underpay, but lacking a niche on a team too cash-strapped to give him a raise, putting him in an awkward position that could result in him accepting less pay than he deserves.
Throughout this year, it seems likely that the Raptors will continue to explore trade options for Barrett to improve the team’s gaps at the centre position, and, for better or worse, the swingman will be playing with a level of uncertainty in this year ahead. Barrett shows no indication of causing a fuss. “I’ve done my part on the court this year,” he said at the same press conference where he announced his desire to stay in Toronto. “And I will continue to do my part, and just hope things work out that way.”
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - APRIL 05: Kyle Kuzma #18 of the Milwaukee Bucks scores on a dunk during the first half of the game against the Memphis Grizzlies at Fiserv Forum on April 05, 2026 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Coming in at #10, Kyle Kuzma has certainly been one of the more controversial additions to the roster in recent memory. He was brought in as a versatile forward who could reasonably play next to Giannis, but it was at the expense of franchise legend Khris Middleton, who, despite never getting over the injury bug, still played a crucial role for the Bucks. Kuzma had huge expectations upon his arrival, but through the rest of that regular season, he never really seemed to click with the team. In the 2025 playoffs, Kuz had one of the worst postseason performances we have seen from a starter, which led to him being benched and barely seeing the floor after his goose-egg game against the Pacers. He did not get a playoff redo last season, so despite having won a ring with the Lakers (the reason why LeBron has his ring in LA (please Google this meme before killing me in the comments)), he finds himself near the bottom of the list for postseason importance on a young roster.
Okay, controversial tweets and fashion choices notwithstanding, let’s look at the good perfectly cromulent aspects of Kuzma’s game to look forward to this year. For starters, he came into the season last year as a backup to Giannis. In a league where players often want the ball (and the attention), Kuzma took a team-first approach that meant he entered the year in a role he hadn’t had in several seasons at that point in his career. While it’s easy to critique Kuzma’s game, it’s worth giving him credit for the presence he brought to that role. Throughout the season, you could see him with his arm around other players at various points, offering advice and trying to lead in his own right. As we learned about the locker room fallout as the season dragged on, we heard that Kuzma specifically went to Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. after they were put on blast during a team meeting and told them to ignore the unfair way Doc handled the situation. Having a veteran presence like this can greatly benefit younger players and the overall locker room culture—Kuzma’s willingness to be a team player could help the team find its identity this season.
Now, for readers who just gasped at that thought, here are the perfectly cromulent aspects of Kuzma’s game that should hopefully quell some of those fears. For starters, Kuzma had a 14.1 player efficiency rating (PER) last season, which is by no means great but puts him firmly in the “decent rotational player” category. That also means he is right around his career average, and in the ballpark of one of his most efficient years overall. If you felt like he was more efficient off the bench last year, that’s because he was. For the season, Kuzma averaged 26.2 minutes for 13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 2.7 APG, but off the bench he averaged 22.4 minutes and slashed 11.8/3.4/2.2, meaning he was more efficient in smaller bursts. Finally, last season Kuzma hit his career high in true shooting at 58.1%, which is exactly league average and only slightly behind the league average for power forwards (58.6%), meaning he found his spots and converted opportunities better than ever.
For those still with me and who haven’t either wretched themselves onto another page or left to buy themselves a Kuzma jersey, I think, taken together, this all means a few things: first, Kuzma is a decent player, and likely a decent veteran presence to have in the locker room, which, if we ignore the price point for this year, does present some opportunities for the Bucks. If Kuzma continues to be this efficient, some team will certainly be interested in him around the trade deadline. While the playoff goose egg game may still be fresh in the minds of Bucks fans, another half season or more of him 1) taking on the role of big brother Kuz to the younger guys and 2) being a league-average player means that a team in need of frontcourt depth would certainly consider adding Kuzma at the trade deadline. Of course, in a contract year, Kuzma knows he is auditioning for his next role and payday around the league. On top of remaining a reasonably efficient shooter, he can help himself and the Bucks by using his size to get downhill more and clean the glass at a better rate. While Kuzma is many things to many people, he is a lifelong hooper. From what we saw last year, he is willing to play a selfless brand of basketball, which, at this point in his career, is his most likely path to staying a rotational player in the league for years to come. That selflessness can also help elevate the young Bucks roster this season as he auditions for his next contract. So all in all, I think we can expect at least one more greatgood perfectly cromulent year out of Kuz.
And we’ve reached single digits! Who goes at nine?
College Basketball: Closeup portrait of Duke Christian Laettner (32) during photo shoot at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Durham, NC 10/30/1991 CREDIT: Peter Read Miller (Photo by Peter Read Miller /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images/Getty Images) (Set Number: X42063 )
Continuation of the “What If” Wolves series. In this series, I play the role of Timberwolves Overlord and go back in time and right some of the wrongs of our favorite franchise. Since this is the Timberwolves, there are a lot of wrongs. This series may go on forever.
Let me start by saying that unlike my wife, I do not believe conspiracy theories. Second shooter during the JFK assassination – doubtful. The Moon landing was fake – that would be the most expensive joke ever. Frozen envelope for the Ewing draft – seems like it could have been done, but come on.
There is however one conspiracy theory that I wholeheartedly believe, but this one has some backing.
Going into the 1992 NBA Draft Lottery, the Minnesota Timberwolves had the worst record in the NBA at 15-67. Just 15 wins! I have no idea how Head Coach Jimmy Rodgers was allowed near a basketball court after that (He was fired after starting the next season with a 6-23 record). That terrible finish to the season meant that the Wolves had the best odds (16.67%) to land the number one overall pick in the 1992 NBA Draft. The prize of that draft being Shaquille O’Neal, a monster center from LSU.
Every team wanted Shaq, even teams with All-NBA centers wanted this guy. I was no different.
JUNE 1: Shaquille O'Neal poses with NBA Commissioner David Stern after being drafted by the Orlando Magic first overall on June 1, 1992 in the first round of the 1992 NBA Draft. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 1992 NBAE (Photo by Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
So where does the conspiracy theory enter the story?
While being interviewed by Ashley Nevel of the Ashley Nevel Show, Shaq let the conspiracy bomb drop and basically confirmed my belief that the NBA was out to screw me and my fandom over and over again. Shaq goes on to tell the story of meeting NBA Commissioner David Stern in March of 1992. During this meeting, Stern asked Shaq “Do you want to play where it’s cold or where it’s hot?” Shaq, being from Louisiana obviously said “hot”.
Stern gave a wry smile after the answer.
A few days pass and the lottery is held. Well guess what kids? Wolves got screwed. The “cold” Wolves dropped down to third overall and the “hot” Orlando Magic move up to #1. Tears. Literal tears. Not tears of sadness, this was pure rage tears.
I’m still fuming over this as I type. Let’s refocus…
So, the Wolves dropped a couple of spots down to the #3 overall pick. Not too bad (even though it was the lowest they could go). This was a three-player draft by most accounts. Shaq was the consensus #1 pick. Alonzo Mouning, a defensive stud from Georgetown, was slotted for #2. Naismith College Player of the Year and future Dream Team member, Christian Laettner, was the easy third pick.
And that is exactly how the draft played out for the first three picks. O’Neal to Orlando Magic at #1, Mourning to the Charlotte Hornets at #2, and Laettner to the Minnesota Timberwolves at #3. Now you may be thinking, “Back-to-Back NCAA Championships, College Player of the Year, and a Dream Teamer? Sign me up!” If you think that, you are wrong and I hate you.
In the 90’s I loved watching two college basketball teams, the UNLV Running Rebels and the Michigan Wolverines, also known as the “Fab Five”. I hated Duke at the time. Duke was boring and fundamentally sound. Plain vanilla. UNLV and the Fab Five were exciting. They played fast and were crazy aggressive. The players all had flair and an attitude to them. They even had cool nicknames. Stacey Augmon was “The Plastic Man”! Is there a better nickname than that? What was Bobby Hurley’s nickname, Bounce Pass Bobby? Plus, the Rebels and “Fab Five” looked awesome with their baggy shorts and black Nikes/black sock combination.
Basically, the opposite of Duke.
UNITED STATES – APRIL 05: College Basketball: NCAA Final Four, Michigan Fab Five (L-R) Jimmy King (24), Ray Jackson (21), Chris Webber (4), Juwan Howard (25), and Jalen Rose (5) on court during game vs North Carolina, New Orleans, LA 4/5/1993 (Photo by John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated via Getty Images) (SetNumber: X44178 TK4 R14 F7)
Laettner was the lone college player selected to the Dream Team. Now Laettner did not play much in the Olympics, despite the Dream Team beating everybody by 200 points. But who cares? After all, he is in the Basketball Hall of Fame…for being on the Olympic roster. His NBA career had more playing time, but his output would not lead to another Olympic roster spot.
Let me just state that Laettner was okay for the Wolves. He was the best player on the team right away, which isn’t saying much. For his Wolves career, Laettner averaged 17.2 points and 8.1 rebound per game. But the Timberwolves ended up trading him halfway through his fourth year in the league to Atlanta (traded Laettner along with Sean Rooks for Andrew Lang and SPUD WEBB!!!). Those were decent stats, so why trade him?
Well, from what I have read, he was a terrible teammate. There is a story of his time with the Wolves where he went into the locker room and started pointing at each of his teammates nameplates above their respective stalls, calling them all losers, before calling himself a winner.
True asshole move, but it would have been awesome to have seen him do that if front of his teammates.
Now I can’t even imagine the scrutiny that Laettner was dealing with at the time. He went from being a back-to-back national champion, winning every individual award at the college level, and winning a gold medal with the Dream Team, to being on the worst team in the NBA.
But still, screw that guy.
MINNEAPOLIS – 1994: Christian Laettner #32 of the Minnesota Timberwolves runs circa 1994 at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 1994 NBAE (Photo by Dale Tait/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Shaq on the Wolves would have been amazing. He was dominant from day one in the league. He was an athletic giant that dunked EVERYTHING. He was a runaway train when he decided to take a rebound from one end of the court to another. He was the definition of must see television.
My two favorite moments are when he broke two backboards. Not the rims. Backboards. One was in New Jersey where he dunked so hard that the metal frame holding the backboard broke and came crashing onto the parquet court. The shot clock even hit Shaq on the head when this happened. Shaq just smiled at the shot clock.
The second was in Phoenix. This time he dunked the ball with such force that he broke the hydraulic system that kept the backboard vertical. After he dunked the ball, the backboard station shook for a bit then slowly wheezed as it lowered itself to the ground. It was hilarious and awesome.
Shaq went on to win an MVP award, four NBA championships, multiple All-NBA teams, named one of the 50 Greatest Players in NBA History, and is in multiple Hall of Fames. The Magic got the number one pick the following year as well (1.5% chance), while the Wolves dropped to number five (second-best odds at #1 pick, 15.15%). The Magic selected Chris Webber from the “Fab Five”, then traded him to Golden State for Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway and three first round picks. Great trade at the time, but injuries derailed Penny’s career.
The Wolves ended up going with Isaiah “JR” Rider at fifth. I loved watching JR play. He was the most exciting player that the Wolves had ever had up to that point. Rider would get into some legal trouble here and there, so the Wolves shipped him to Portland for a bag of pure hot trash (Bill Curley, James Robinson, and a pick that would turn into Paul Grant. Like I said, pure hot trash).
SACRAMENTO, CA – MARCH 28: Shaquille O'Neal #32 and Penny Hardaway #1 of the Orlando Magic talk against the Sacramento Kings on March 28, 1995 at Arco Arena in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 1995 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Since I don’t believe in conspiracy theories, except the Shaq to “where it’s hot,” I’ll have to rely on the Wayback Machine to change this history for the “What if” Wolves.
Dream Team selects Shaq instead of Laettner. Shaq along with Charles Barkley start a war with Angola (Chuck elbowed a guy from Angola. I think the announcer, maybe Bill Walton, said that Barkley shouldn’t be handing out elbows, he should hand out sandwiches to the skinnier Angolan players.)
Shaq wants a change of pace from hot Louisiana and tells Stern he wants to be “cold”. Minnesota wins the lottery and takes O’Neal #1 overall. Wolves then trade center Luc Longley, Tony Campbell, and a future second round pick to Orlando for their 1993 first round pick and Sam Vincent (In this history, the Magic are acting how the real Wolves would have and did not protect their first round pick).
Shaq goes on to wreak havoc throughout the league. Spalding stock slides because Shaq breaks an average of 1.25 backboards per game. Wolves win their first title by going 68-10-4 (the “4” represents games that could not be finished due to no rims remaining).
The Magic pick lands at spot number three. Wolves draft Penny Hardaway, who enjoys a relatively injury-free career. Back-to-back titles. Shaq and Penny go on to lead the Wolves to 10 NBA titles before Shaq retires to focus on his movie career, where he wins an Oscar for his work starring in the Fast and Furious franchise (Bonus, Vin Diesel never happens).
And if it makes you feel better about the Laettner bashing. Let’s say he goes to the Charlotte Hornets at number two and gets to stay in North Carolina. The Duke fans shower him with praise during a 15-year career as a lifelong Hornet.
The West has some upstart contenders this season who didn’t feel like threats at this time last year. The Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers are coming off overachieving seasons, and will be looking to make the next step. The Utah Jazz are finally done tanking, and they want to start winning right now with star rookie Darryn Peterson on board. The Golden State Warriors may or may not have one more run left in them. If any of these teams can breakup the conference’s top-six teams from last year, it would be a major accomplishment.
The Spurs arrived ahead of schedule last year to jump from 34 to 62 wins, but they’re not catching anyone by surprise going forward. San Antonio should be well positioned to be one of the best teams in the league for the next decade around 7’5 superstar Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama is by far the best defensive player in the game, and there’s not many offensive players better than him, either. I still think Wemby needs a mid-range game, but he might be the best player in the league regardless. I’m fascinated to see how the Spurs will manage the De’Aaron Fox/Dylan Harper situation. Harper feels like he should be ready for primetime entering his second season, but Fox can still be a very good player when he’s not hampered by a sprained ankle like he was in the NBA Finals. While Wemby will get all of the attention, I really like the Spurs’ collection of role players too, led by Julian Champagnie, Devin Vassell, and the newly signed Tobias Harris. Harper’s ascent will only make the Spurs more terrifying. If Wembanyama stays healthy, there’s no way this team finishes below the No. 2 seed.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
I still think the Thunder probably would have gone back-to-back if Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell weren’t hurt in the playoffs. There’s a ton of pressure on Williams in particular to regain his top form as he starts a new max contract, and coming back from a hamstring strain is always tricky. The Thunder lost some key pieces over the offseason including Lu Dort, but the formula for this team remains unchanged with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s on-ball creation brilliance plus an elite defense. Assuming Chet Holmgren’s Western Conference Finals yips only come out in the matchup with Victor Wembanyama, OKC should be a monster regular season team once again.
3. Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers have won 103 regular season games in their two seasons under JJ Redick, and while this year’s team loses LeBron James, it also significantly upgrades its rim protection. While I don’t think Walker Kessler is worth what the Lakers gave up for him, he does give LA a starting center who can cover up for Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves’ defensive deficiencies a bit while also providing extra possessions on the offensive glass. Los Angeles’ forward room is potentially pretty bad, I can talk myself into one or two of Matisse Thybulle, Ziaire Williams, Adou Thiero, and Chris Mannon suddenly becoming a key piece for their defense and play-finishing. Ultimately, the case for the Lakers starts and ends with Luka Doncic’s ability to be one of the five best players in the league, and I feel comfortable taking that bet. Luka + a good coach + better rim protection has me believing in the Lakers’ floor if not their ceiling.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
I’ve talked myself in the Wolves’ potential playoff ceiling with Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball providing a degree of pull-up shooting significant enough to add variance into a potential matchup with the Spurs or Thunder. The regular season might be a different story. The Wolves are heavily banking on Rudy Gobert to stay healthy and effective at age-34, but it does seem like he keeps himself in great shape. The trio of Gobert, Edwards, and Jaden McDaniels has consistently produced winning basketball for Minnesota, and the addition of Ball could take them to the next level. If Ball’s ankles can stay in one piece, he’s one of the league’s best handlers and passers who can also take over a game as a scorer when he has it going. I kind of like the addition of Jonathan Kuminga even if I should know better, and I feel like the bench will be pretty solid with Ayo Dosunmu, Jaylen Clark, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Joan Beringer. There’s definitely some risk in being high on the Wolves this year, but their potential upside is still too sweet to ignore.
5. Houston Rockets
The Rockets didn’t just miss Fred VanVleet last season, they also didn’t have Steven Adams for the stretch run. Adams’ injury took away Houston’s greatest strength (offensive rebounding), and returning both players should make this team a lot stronger than it was during their first-round playoff loss to the Lakers last season. Houston is full of young players who could take another step forward this year, with Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard all 24 years old or younger. Ime Udoka has proven to be a high floor coach throughout his time in the NBA. Oh yeah, Kevin Durant is here too, and he’s still really good. Houston could get as high as the No. 3 seed and it wouldn’t surprise me.
6. Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets had a terrible and frustrating offseason, but their core is still rock solid. Nikoka Jokic still has a case as the best player in the world, and his offensive creation and defensive rebounding will give this team a high floor as long he’s healthy. Jokic has special chemistry with Jamal Murray, who was really good last year in finally making his first All-Star team. Aaron Gordon is quietly one of the league’s most important injury stories this year. It felt like Gordon was still peaking as a player with his recent three-point shooting improvements, but he just can’t stay healthy. If Gordon is fully available, the Nuggets will still be really good. The issue for Denver is everyone else. Christian Braun has one of the worst contracts in the league if he keeps playing like he did last year, and the bold trade for Cameron Johnson immediately backfired. DeMar DeRoza can probably still eat some innings off the bench, but he’s a weird fit with Jokic and won’t factor into the team’s best lineups. The backup center behind Jokic is .. Marvin Bagley III, which feels troubling. I’m always waiting for a Julian Strawther breakthrough that never comes, and it’s hard to keep holding onto my DaRon Holmes’ stock after a quiet year coming off a torn ACL. The Nuggets could be in big trouble, but they still have Jokic, so they probably won’t be.
7. Phoenix Suns
I thought the Suns were pretty screwed after they traded Kevin Durant, but they nailed multiple margin moves to become a legitimate playoff threat at the bottom end of the Western Conference. I’m buying Jordan Ott as a good head coach after a 45-win debut a year ago fueled by aggressive schemes to force turnovers defensively and crash the offensive glass. Devin Booker is surrounded by some pretty solid role players now, and a few of them should have even more to offer. I was sky high on Khaman Maluach coming out of Duke, and my optimism remains despite essentially getting redshirted as a rookie after a strong summer league showing. Collin Gillespie is one of the league’s great hidden gem findings, and I fully expect him to out-play the $48 million deal he’s starting this season. I hated the Miles Bridges trade, but I liked drafting Koa Peat and bringing back Jordan Goodwin to add toughness. Phoenix is going to play really hard every night and give their fanbase a team it can be proud of. That feels like the best they could have done climbing out of the Durant and Bradley Beal era.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers feel like they’re in a turbulent place as new governor Tom Dundan gains contract for his first full season. Dundon’s cost-cutting moves were alarming as soon as he got power, and it’s no surprise he pushed out head coach Tiago Splitter after making the playoffs under tough circumstances because he didn’t to pay him. Micah Nori might actually be an upgrade on the bench, but it’s not right that he’s working with a one-year deal to start the year. The on-court product is every bit as fascinating. Damian Lillard is back off a torn Achilles at age-36, and his backcourt mate is suddenly Ja Morant. Both former stars need to learn how to play off Deni Avdija, who emerged as the best player on the team last year by being an on-ball battering ram who consistently got to the foul line. Donovan Clingan is one of the best young defensive bigs in the game, but does he have another step offensively? Jrue Holiday and Toumani Camara provide a strong defensive foundation next to Clingan, which could turn this into a top-10 unit despite Lillard and Morant being clear negatives on that end. Where does Scoot Henderson fit in entering his third season after missing much of last year with injury? I think the Blazers are going to struggle to put out lineups that can compete on both ends, but there’s enough of a foundation here that the bottom shouldn’t totally drop out.
9. Utah Jazz
The Jazz are finally exiting their tanking strategy, but it’s still hard to know what to make of their roster. Utah definitely has a lot of talent with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen in their prime joined by young players with varying degrees of upside in Darryn Peterson, Keyonte George, and Ace Bailey. There are a lot of bucket-getters here, but the playmaking and defense remains a question. I have always thought Will Hardy was a good coach who couldn’t show the full scope of his abilities during the tanking years, and that makes this season a big test for him. The Jazz don’t have to be a finished product yet after a great heist in the Walker Kessler trade, but the overall roster improvement is admirable and could land them in the playoffs.
10. Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies turned one promising young core into another totally new one in the matter of just a few years. I think Memphis landed the best player in the draft with the third overall pick, and fully expect Cameron Boozer to be really good from day one. I love the potential pairing of Boozer’s high IQ passing and shooting alongside 300 pounds of Zach Edey bully ball at the rim, provided the 7’3 center can finally stay healthy. Cedric Coward could be in for a sophomore leap, and the backcourt has tons of interesting upside candidates even without an established headline name. Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Cam Spencer are all underrated players with room to keep getting better, while the trade for Isaiah Stewart will raise the team’s level of competitiveness for just a couple second round picks. If Edey stays healthy, I could see Memphis getting into the top-8, even if their best player is literally the youngest guy in the league this year.
11. Golden State Warriors
Hope for the Warriors took a huge hit when Jimmy Butler tore his ACL in January, dooming Golden State’s bid for relevance last season and probably this season, too. Butler will push himself to come back quick, but at age-37 without a reliable outside jumper to fall back on, a speedy return to form feels like a lot to ask. The downfall of the Warriors is a bit depressing if only because Stephen Curry is still good enough to compete for championships in his golden years. Curry turns 39 at the end of this season, and while he can still be a top-5 player alive in short bursts, it’s hard to count on him to make it through a long regular season physically. I like some of the Warriors’ role players. I really believe Brandin Podziemski is underrated as a good three-point shooter who always seems to know where to be on both ends of the floor. Gui Santos is a legitimate diamond-in-the-rough find for this franchise as a 3-and-D wing, and I love Yaxel Lendeborg, who I had as a top-5 prospect in the 2026 NBA Draft. This team is just really old, and pretty unreliable injury-wise. I would have them way higher if Butler was totally healthy to start the season, but I just can’t get there for now.
12. Dallas Mavericks
The Mavs put Masai Uriji and Mike Schmitz in charge this past summer, and they immediately made some big changes. The Mavs shocked the world by pulling Dusty May from Michigan, and then they took his former player Morez Johnson Jr. with the No. 9 overall pick. The front office also traded for Santi Aldama and former No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher. The aggressive mindset makes this year even more intriguing given all of the big questions tied to the roster. Kyrie Irving is back after missing last season with a torn ACL: what does he look like coming off major surgery at age-34? Dereck Lively II looked like one of the West’s best young centers, but he had foot injury in Dec. and still hasn’t been cleared to run. Cooper Flagg was pretty damn good for being the youngest player in the league last year, but he still has plenty of room to grow on both ends of the court before he fulfills his considerable expectations. The Mavs are in a tough place because they traded all of their future first-round picks to build around Luka Doncic, which leaves the cupboard bare for the start of the Flagg era. Their best move is feels like fully orienting around Flagg’s timeline, and that means trading Kyrie, as well as veterans like P.J. Washington and Naji Marshall. It’s hard to see a ton of upside in this Mavs season unless Flagg somehow morphs into an All-NBA player at age-19. He’ll get there eventually, and I can’t wait to see what the team around him looks like then.
13. New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have threaded the needle between having some actual talent and lacking any sensible direction. New Orleans brings in Jamahl Mosley from Orlando to take over at head coach, and he’ll have some interesting pieces to work with. Herb Jones is one of the NBA’s best defensive forwards, Trey Murphy III is one of the league’s best big shooters, and Zion Williamson finally played a decent amount of games (62) while averaging 21 points on +6.7% rTS (true shooting percentage over league average). The Pelicans also have two 2025 lottery picks in Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen entering their second season, and they can tell themselves their bold trade for Queen didn’t burn them as badly as it could have. I’m just not sure how the Pelicans can put out lineups that are competitive on both ends, especially in the always unforgiving West. New Orleans got killed on the defensive glass last season, they were among the lowest-volume three-point shooting teams in the league, and they were below-average at forcing turnovers. These are things that tend to lose basketball games, and I don’t see them completely flipping with a similar roster this year. A Zion trade feels inevitable, and at this point it would be nice to see him get a change of scenery.
14. Los Angeles Clippers
The bad news for the Clippers is their future has been totally decimated. The good news (?) is that most of the pain will take place beyond this season. The Clippers still have a decent collection of talent, and I’m interested to see what a very good head coach in Ty Lue can do with it. Kawhi Leonard is out (did you hear about this?), and Keaton Wagler, Brandon Ingram, Max Strus, and Rui Hachimura are in. Darius Garland is starting his first full year with the keys to the offense, and could be in for a huge season with so much offensive freedom. Garland’s pairing with No. 5 overall pick Keaton Wagler will be fascinating to watch. Wagler is about as low on athleticism as possible for a guard picked in the top-5, but his deadly off-the-dribble shooting and solid feel for the game gives him enticing upside. Brook Lopez is still here at age-38. That’s cool. Why the hell is Bradley Beal still on this roster? More cap circumvention? The Clippers owe their 2027 draft pick to the Thunder of all teams, and then the real pain begins. I’m sorry, Clippers fans. Please make the tickets really cheap, Ballmer.
15. Sacramento Kings
It’s easy to overlook all the misfortune that was cast upon the Sacramento Kings last season, because this franchise permanently exists in an unfortunate state. Domantas Sabonis (19 games), Keegan Murray (23 games), and Zach LaVine (39 games) all played less than half the season. If those guys stay healthy this year, the Kings can’t be so bad again, right? I’m not sure. Sacramento still feels like it’s stuck between two eras, but at least the rebuild got a promising young piece in Darius Acuff in this year’s draft. I have some skepticism about how Acuff’s game translates to the league, but he was such a warrior last year at Arkansas, and the Kings badly need someone like that who the fanbase can rally behind. I like Maxime Raynaud and Dylan Cardwell as young bigs with polar opposite skill sets, and I’m interested to see what Nique Clifford can do in year two. It just feels like the Kings are biding their time to blow up this roster, and I just don’t think it’s going anywhere before that happens.
Jul 5, 2020; Denver, Colorado, United States; A general view of Coors Field during workouts. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Good morning, Purple Row!
The Colorado Rockies will finish their penultimate series of the year today with a final game against the Arizona Dimaondbacks. They’ve already lost the series by dropping the first two games but will look to avoid a sweep before heading east to Chicago where they will finish off their season against the White Sox.
Notably, today’s game will be the final home game of the 2026 season for the Rockies. One last baseball game in Denver before settling in for an offseason of uncertain length. Despite the Rockies crossing the 100 loss mark for the fourth straight season, the impending end to the daily routine of baseball will still be a loss for many. Take advantage of these last few chances to watch live Rockies baseball.
First, though, let’s dig into some news from around the league.
Rockies News & Links
Rockies hit latest low, become fifth team with 4 straight 100-loss seasons | ESPN.com — As mentioned, the Rockies reached triple-digit losses on Wednesday. As it turns out, this streak puts the franchise into rare and undesirable company. If you can’t remember a team having matched this four-season streak previously that’s because the Rockies are just the fifth team ever to have done so and the first since the expansion New York Mets in the early 1960’s.
Rockies lose 100 games in four straight seasons as Colorado joins ill-famed MLB fraternity | Denver Post ($) — Kyle Newman of the Denver Post digs even deeper into the state of the franchise in the wake of their extremely poor four season streak. Where ESPN provides the cliff notes for a league wide audience, the Post dives into the ins and outs of how the 2026 team collapsed in the final two months of the season. It ends with a reminder that it’s possible that the Rockies could become only the second team in MLB history to extend a 100 loss streak to five straight seasons without a drastic turnaround next year.
Freeland deals with ‘rush of emotion’ in possible final home start at Coors | MLB.com — It’s very possible that Kyle Freeland pitched his final outing for the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday. After the game, the ten-year veteran who has spent his entire professional career with the organization, did not hold back the emotional impact the possibility of his time with the Rockies having come to an end had on him.
Rockies GM Josh Byrnes sees progress at Coors Field, but ‘it’s not good enough’ | Denver Gazette ($) — As we enter the offseason it’s important for fans to understand that the folks in charge of baseball operations in the Rockies organization are being realistic about the amount of work remaining to turn the club around. Rockies GM Josh Byrnes speaks on that topic with Kevin Henry and is open about how far the team still has to go before becoming a competitive team. It’s a refreshingly self-aware interview for a fanbase that had become accustomed to hearing that the team was in a better shape than their record indicated under the previous leadership team.
Around Baseball
After Rockies secure fourth straight 100-loss season, Angels aim to avoid first | The Athletic ($) — While the Rockies may have the most losses in the league for a second straight season, they are not the only team struggling to avoid ending the season on a low note. Fabian Ardaya takes a look around MLB and highlights the Los Angeles Angels attempts to avoid their first 100 loss season, the Athletics struggles to put together a winning ballclub before their impending move to Las Vegas, and the St. Louis Cardinals who are at risk of posting consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1959.
Queens Crowned Baseball Royalty, Beat Firebells in WPBL Championship | Fangraphs — The inaugural season of the Women’s Professional Baseball League concluded on Tuesday night. Kiri Oler of Fangraphs breaks down the Championship series game by game. If you didn’t catch the games while they were on this is a great way to catch up on how the leagues first championship was won. The final game in particular was a perfectly poetic capstone to a thrilling first season.
The MLB Strike Zone Got A Lot Smaller In 2026 | Baseball America ($) — If you entered the season thinking that the addition of the ABS Challenge system would alter which pitches are called strikes, you’d be correct. J.J. Cooper breaks down how the effective strike zone has noticeably shrunk in the first season of the Challenge system. Most fascinatingly, the piece also goes into how pitcher’s have adapted to this changing zone.
This Wave Of Japanese Talent Is The Beginning Of A Pipeline | Baseball Prospectus ($) — Robert Arthur looks into a recent spike in the total percentage of MLB innings and plate appearances that Japanese born players are contributing. As it turns out, a increasingly reliable performance data on players outside the US has given MLB front offices the confidence required to make investments that would have seemed risky just a decade ago.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - SEPTEMBER 23: hird baseman Miguel Vargas #20 of the Chicago White Sox is tagged out in a rundown by pitcher Seth Lugo #67 of the Kansas City Royals during the 3rd inning of the game at Kauffman Stadium on September 23, 2026 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Maikel Garcia was instrumental in the Royals 5-4 win last night, over the White Sox.
KC raced to an early lead in the first inning. Carter Jensen and Bobby Witt Jr. recorded singles to open the game. Jac Caglianone moved them into scoring position and Maikel Garcia drove them home with a two-run single. The Royals took an early lead. It was a near-perfect start as White Sox opener Bryan Hudson lasted one-third of an inning. KC tallied two additional runs as Vinnie Pasquantino added an RBI single and scored on an error.
Zion Rose named the Royals top Arizona Fall League prospect by MLB.com
One of three 2026 Draft picks in this year’s AFL class, the former Louisville outfielder missed time this spring with ankle and hamstring injuries, making this a good opportunity to pick up more at-bats and grow even more comfortable in the Royals system. Rose, who was a surprise pick for some at No. 6 overall, earns strong reviews for his bat-to-ball skills, speed and power potential, though he’ll need to elevate more on contact to get his raw pop into games. He hit .268/.389/.338 with one homer and 14 steals in 19 games with High-A Quad Cities after the Draft.
If you didn’t already know, through the first two games of this homestand, the Royals will likely decide who wins the division this season.
If you haven’t checked it out in a while, here is the Royals Top 30 prospects list.
With the minor league season ended, here are some injury updates on some Royals players.
Kevin O’Brien of Royals Keep pondered what the Royals should do with Daniel Lynch IV next year.
Philip Ruo of Royals Keep talks about the Royals 2027 roster problems.
Brian Burrows of Kings of Kauffman talks about Royals prospect, Brett Squires.
Braves ace Chris Sale cemented his 9th 200 strikeout season the other night.
Yankees Ben Rice has tied the AL lead for most homers this season.
Are the Cubs ever going to clinch their playoff spot?
Speaking of that, the Diamondbacks are still alive in the race
Aaron Judge is in danger of missing start of playoffs as well
Here it is, your song of the day: Calypso by John Denver
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 5: Starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals delivers a pitch in the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on September 5, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Last Friday, ORSTLcardsfan wrote about how the Cardinals might approach the upcoming offseason by looking at the 40 man roster, seeing who could be shed and who needed to be added, plus highlighting team needs over the offseason. He made a comment that got my attention: he put Matthew Liberatore in the nontender category. That got my attention because the thought had not occurred to me, and he said he wasn’t expecting it either.
It inspired this post. There are nine players entering arbitration next season. For some of them, this will not be their first rodeo, Liberatore included. Last I checked, MLB Trade Rumors, pretty much the gold standard for this, estimated the Super Two cutoff at 2.130 years of service. Riley O’Brien is at 2.129 years of service. They did estimate this based on where players where at as of the trading deadline, so it could change. Riley O’Brien would be Super Two eligible in 7 of the last 17 seasons, so it’s certainly possible. Let’s make him our tenth player.
The idea is simple: I estimate what a player’s salary will be and then will determine whether they are tendered a contract. I will be using Point of Pittsburgh’s numbers, admittedly it is from 2016. So a little bit outdated, but I’m guessing the numbers haven’t changed wildly. According to their calculations, a player will earn 25% of their free agent value in their first year of arb, 40% in their second year of arb, and 62% in their third year of arb. It works differently for Super Two players. For them, it’s 18% in their first year, 33% in their second year, 50% in their third year and 69% for their fourth year.
Andre Pallante
Service Time: 4.145 (translated, this means 4 years, 145 days)
Pallante should see a decent bump. He was eligible for Super Two back in 2025, earning $2.1 million. Pallante supports Point of Pittsburgh’s method actually, because based off that, he “should” have made $3.85 million in his second year. His actual salary was $4 million. But the Cardinals and Pallante came to an agreement before a hearing and that means it was between the Cardinals number and Pallante’s number. Not to mention, it’s possible his value raised slightly due to making 31 starts and throwing 162 innings even if they were below average innings. I wouldn’t be surprised if arbitration valued a below average and full-time, healthy starter over a swingman.
With all that said, there is no doubt in my mind that 50% of Pallante’s value will be based off a higher figure than what his previous arb figures were based on. It won’t be as much of a difference as you’d expect – the standard set by the initial figures still matters. But they do change the price slightly. If arbitration valued him exactly the same way, he’d get a $6 million salary. Based on his 2.7 fWAR season, he’d get a $13.5 million salary. Arbitration wouldn’t project him for him to repeat that season though.
An unscientific guess on my part is splitting the difference. Let’s say he projects for 2.2 WAR. Take the average and I get $8.5 million. That sounds right to me. With two years of team control and a projection probably over 2 WAR, you can see how he’d be pretty valuable on the trade market. Just throwing it out there. He’s a no brainer keep though.
Estimated Salary: $8.5 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Alec Burleson
With Burleson, we have yet another player whose value has been raised. Burleson is actually a virtually identical hitter to last season, believe it or not. His struggles in September have gone way under the radar, but he has an 80 wRC+ this month and actually it’s worse than that because he went 1 for 5 with a single yesterday. He is somehow still racking the RBIs which is probably why nobody is really noticing it. But he had a 123 wRC+ last year, he has a 122 wRC+ this year. However, there’s a good chance arbitration does actually care about RBIs and better defense at 1B has led to a higher WAR, not to mention what will be well over 100 more plate appearances. It adds up.
I have already looked into Burleson’s arbitration price when I looked at a Burleson extension. I see no reason to alter what I thought then. I said if arbitration viewed him exactly the same, he’d be worth $5.3 million based on his $3.3 million in his first year. I threw out the new number of $7 million, which might actually be high, because I think he had a 130 wRC+ then. However, he’s effectively the same exact player, but seen by arbitration, he plays more and with lots of RBIs. So I’ll stick with $7 million.
Well, I already advocated for a Burleson extension, so you shouldn’t be surprised at my conclusion.
Estimated salary: $7 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Nolan Gorman
Well, the fun had to end sometime. I don’t know if there’s a point in figuring out his price. At best, arbitration will view him exactly the same. It’s likely he wouldn’t see a very big raise though. He made $2.6 million in his first year of arbitration, and based on that, he’d make $4.16 million in his second year of arb. He wasn’t exactly coming off a good season last year either, but clearly his numbers got worse. I think the lack of homers would especially hurt him.
I honestly don’t think we’re going to find out, but let’s say $3.5 million is his arbitration price. It’s not really about the money with Gorman. Gorman needs a change of scenery. It’s not going to happen here. For a really bad team with a bad situation at 3B, Gorman is a good shoot for the moon pickup – honestly just getting out of Busch Stadium might help him. But the Cardinals have two unlikely, but potentially the future guys he’d get in the way of and a lot more potential behind them and Gorman has become the new Arenado, but with no trade value.
Estimated salary: $3.5 million
Conclusion: Nontender
Matthew Liberatore
The man who inspired this post. I am going to pay attention to his 2027 number, because I do want to know how much arbitration values a 30+ start starter, even if that starter wasn’t very good. Liberatore’s arb 1 salary, which was Super 2, was $2.26 million. That’s not a lot, but Liberatore didn’t have a good track record aside from 2025 and his 2025 was mediocre. What I’m saying is that if leading up to 2026, Liberatore had a 2023 and a 2024 that looked a hell of a lot like his 2025, his salary would have been higher.
Because he made 31 starts and because he exceeded his innings last year, I don’t think his value will take a hit and there is a small chance arbitration thinks he’d be worth (slightly) more in free agency, purely based on games started and innings. I repeat what I said about Pallante: a below average starter is worth more than a swingman. That said, if he gets a bump, it’s really not much. Based on his 2026 salary, he would make $4.14 million. I’ll just say $4.5 million for 2027.
Whatever the Cardinals think of Liberatore, I think there’s about a 1% chance they nontender him at that price. I just don’t see it. They just gave Ryne Stanek $5 million. The reliever version of Liberatore is certainly worth a $4.5 million gamble. The Cardinals are not even remotely in a salary crunch situation.
The Cardinals have given hints they are done with Gorman. That is not the case for Liberatore. He’s coming back or is traded, but he won’t be nontendered.
Estimated salary: $4.5 million
Conclusion: Tendered a contract
Masyn Winn
Okay now we’re in comp territory. I found a much better comp than I expected, although slightly worse in just about every way. Anthony Volpe coming into this season had a Gold Glove, was a career 84 wRC+ hitter, and is a very good defender. I don’t know what an arbitration panel uses for defense, but Volpe is actually a much better comp if it uses Baseball Reference. Considering he won a Gold Glove in his rookie season based on Baseball Reference (since his OAA was +1), and he didn’t win a Gold Glove the year he had +14 OAA, that is a possibility. Winn’s defense is much, much closer to Volpe’s if it uses DRS. Winn has 5.2 dWAR, Volpe had 5.3 dWAR entering this season. OAA tells a different story. Volpe was +8 OAA entering this season (thanks to a bad 2025), Winn will be +39.
So to say the least, Volpe could either be an extremely good comp or a very bad comp depending on which defensive metric you want to use. Winn is also a better hitter. Volpe has a career 84 wRC+, Winn is at 87. But that includes his 29 wRC+ debut season, so I feel like he’d be viewed as a clearly better hitter. Volpe is a better base stealer and baserunner, like a lot better, both in terms of stolen bases and BsR so that might soften the gap between the two. Anyway Volpe made $3.48 million in his first arbitration season. I think having two Gold Gloves will matter a lot in this comp, so I think I’ll bump it a million.
Estimated salary: $4.5 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Jordan Walker
Another difficult comp, but I don’t need to find a player who had his exact same trajectory, which is good, because that player does not exist near as I can tell. Jo Adell is the closest, but he was farther along in the arbitration process and wasn’t as good, making any comparison pointless. So I had to resort to someone who had a similar season overall. I found Kerry Carpenter, who had 2.9 fWAR and a 120 wRC+. Greene has better (but still below average) defense, but he’s a negative baserunner. This is as close as I’ll get. Greene made $5 million, but his MLB Trade Rumors estimate was $6.6 million. Greene agreed to a deal before the panel. I don’t know if he was poorly advised or Trade Rumors was really off, but I’m going to say he should have held out for more money.
So I’m going to operate with the $6.6 million figure. With that said, Walker should be valued as worse than Greene. For starters, Greene came into the 2026 season as an extremely reliable hitter. Somewhat in hindsight but not completely, but 120 wRC+ more or less appears to be his floor (his worst full season wRC+ is 119 and he has a 138 wRC+ this season). That is not the case with Walker. Those other seasons matter too in his figure.
So ironically, Greene’s $5 million salary for 2026 is actually kind of a reasonable guess for Walker. Walker has the most variance in what his number could be, but $5 million is a good middle ground in my mind.
Estimated Salary: $5 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Ivan Herrera
Boy, Herrera is such a specific type of player that I could not find a good comp. There were not catchers who had the playing time that he did. There were good hitting catchers, but they caught 80% of their games. The closest I found was Yanier Diaz. He’s not a great comp, because he was coming off a 92 wRC+ season, and he catches the majority of games he plays, but he is an offensive-oriented catcher who isn’t very good at defense. His is more framing related than stolen base related, although Herrera isn’t really a good framer either. Yanier Diaz made $4.5 million, which happened to be exactly what MLB Trade Rumors projected.
I’ll just go with that. I don’t know how to factor in that Herrera DH’d twice as much as he caught, but we’ll say Diaz catching more games makes up for Herrera’s better offense (at least when Diaz was first eligible for arbitraton)
Estimated Salary: $4.5 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Pedro Pages
I found an extremely good comp, far better than I expected if I’m being honest. The only problem is that this was a good comp entering the 2025 season, not the 2026 season. Not a big problem honestly. But this player has leveled up to make it appear to be a bad comp. Nick Fortes entering the 2025 season was essentially Pedro Pages. Worse hitter, his numbers on defense were better though. But he was coming off a 58 wRC+ season, which followed a 52 wRC+ season. In case anybody thinks it’s impossible Pages’ bat ever improves to acceptable range, I present Nick Fortes. Ironically, his defense hasn’t rated very well this year though.
Honestly, this is about as close as I’ll get to a 1:1 comparison, so I’m just going to use Nick Fortes 2025 expected salary of $1.6 million. I don’t see any way Pages is nontendered at this price. You should at the least be able to trade him. Fortes in fact was traded to the Rays. The Marlins got what appears to be a nonprospect, but he’s a 24-year-old outfielder with a 108 wRC+ in AAA right now, so it’s not nothing.
Estimated Salary: $1.6 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Kyle Leahy
Oh my god, the Cardinals can’t just have a normal player, can they? I didn’t really find anyone, because you know pitchers don’t have Kyle Leahy’s career trajectory like ever. It’s why I was skeptical about him as a starter. He didn’t debut until he was 26, he was a not great reliever at 27, turned into the bullpen equivalent of an innings eater at 28, and then managed to make 29 starts where he was mostly good but didn’t throw a lot of innings. That comp doesn’t exist.
So I just kind of looked at a bunch of Super Two pitchers and my official guess is $3 million, but it’s just based on vibes. I looked a few pitchers and the assigned numbers seemed more or less random, but it was usually between $2 million and $3.5 million if the pitcher was somewhat close to how Leahy pitched. I doubt this is wildly off, but I really have no clue what his salary will be.
Estimated Salary: $3 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Riley O’Brien
And of course we have another weirdo here, essentially a mediocre reliever with a ridiculous amount of saves. Based on his performance, he’d get paid not a lot more than league minimum, but the All-Star appearance and saves will get him something. If a pitcher gets to 38 saves by the time they reach Super Two status, they are normally much better relievers than Riley O’Brien has been. I’m not knocking him, teams just don’t usually give the closer role to relative newcomers who aren’t elite. He did seem elite at first, granted, but it’s just hard to find a comp for a 0.3 fWAR reliever with 38 saves and an All-Star appearance.
Anyway, MLB Trade Rumors projected Mason Miller for $3.4 million, and since that feels like the absolute ceiling a true reliever could ever get in their first year of arbitration as a Super Two player, let’s just say $2 million and call it a day? The saves might end up mattering later, but Super Two relievers just don’t get paid ever. Also I’ll repeat O’Brien might not actually qualify for Super Two.
Estimated Salary: $2 million
Conclusion: Tender a contract
Frankly, I’m curious if and how the Cardinals raise their payroll to a not embarrassing level next year. Before the league minimum guys and the arbitration figures are factored in, the Cardinals have a committed $16 million on the books right now. SIXTEEN MILLION. Almost all of that is for players who will play zero innings for the Cardinals too. $13 million combined for Contreras and Arenado, $500K for buying out Ramon Urias. It’s pretty much just JJ’s salary.
If the Cardinals followed my estimates, they’d have an additional $40.6 million from the arbitration players, assuming O’Brien even qualifies. Good chance one or more of these guys is traded, so it won’t even be that. I know the league minimum guys factor into their overall payroll, but bare minimum, they got to spend like $40 million for this not to be an absolutely embarrassing payroll, no? I could not be asking for less. They spent $183 million in 2024 and I’m wondering how they’re going to get to $100 million.
