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Dylan Cease is riding the best stretch of his career, and his slider is the pitch Boston can’t touch.

The Toronto Blue Jays send their ace, Dylan Cease, to the mound at Fenway Park on Saturday against a red-hot Boston Red Sox club and Sonny Gray.

Cease has been overpowering lately, and his highly effective slider highlights my Blue Jays vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for this Saturday, July 25 matchup.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox predictions

Blue Jays vs Red Sox best bet:  Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts (-125)

Dylan Cease is the Toronto Blue Jays’ one bright hope this season, pitching at an AL Cy Young level and cashing the Over on this prop in nine of his last 11 starts, thanks to a deadly wipeout slider that will be effective again Saturday.

Cease’s slider is a deadly weapon that the Boston Red Sox simply can’t handle. It’s the best slider in baseball at a +16 run value, and opposing hitters are batting just .135 against it, an absurd number for that pitch.

Cease does have to be careful with Willson Contreras, who owns a .500 slugging mark against sliders this year. But Contreras also whiffs 44% of the time on the pitch, so Cease still holds the strikeout edge.

It helps that this comes a night after Boston struck out 13 times against Toronto’s staff. I wouldn’t play this bet past -130.

COVERS INTEL: Cease is pitching the best ball of his career right now, leading the AL in FIP (2.39), H/9 (6.4) and K/9 (13.4).

Blue Jays vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

For the same-game parlay, I’m building around Cease and a couple of low-bar bats. 

Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts doubles down on my best bet, and I’ll add the Blue Jays moneyline in a near-pick’em with the ace on the mound. 

From there, Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 total bases and Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 total bases ask only that two of Toronto’s streakier bats reach base once, with Okamoto coming off a three-run blast on Friday.

Blue Jays vs Red Sox SGP

• Blue Jays moneyline
• Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 total bases
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 total bases
• Dylan Cease Over 7.5 strikeouts

Blue Jays vs Red Sox home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+450)

Kazuma Okamoto woke up on Friday with a massive three-run blast to dead center, snapping an 0-for-24 skid. As we know, Okamoto goes on these home run sprees.

He homered five times in five games in early May, then three times in four games around the All-Star break, and his swings on Friday suggested another run could be coming.

Red Sox starter Sonny Gray is a tough customer, but he isn’t unbreakable, as his 1.0 HR/9 shows. His four-seam fastball is vulnerable, allowing a .493 slugging mark, and Okamoto is the Grim Reaper for center-cut fastballs, slugging .580 with a +12 run value on the pitch.

I’d play this until +400 at a quarter unit. 

Blue Jays vs Red Sox odds

• Moneyline: Toronto -110 | Boston -110
• Run line: Toronto -1.5 (+155) | Boston +1.5 (-180)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)

Blue Jays vs Red Sox trend

Dylan Cease has struck out at least eight batters in 12 of 18 starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Red Sox.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Red Sox and game info

Blue Jays vs Red Sox latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Red Sox weather

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The 2026 season is on life support for the San Diego Padres after losing five of seven games to open the second half of the season following the All-Star break. With three games against the Kansas City Royals (the worst team in baseball at the time) and four games against the Atlanta Braves (a team the Padres swept earlier this season) San Diego was expected to give general manager A.J. Preller some reasons to be a buyer at the upcoming trade deadline. Instead, the Padres dropped 2-of-3 to the Royals and 3-of-4 to the Braves. San Diego was expected to charge out of the gate, but they have limped to just two wins.

San Diego opened its series with the Miami Marlins on Friday night and the offense, as it has been known to do, struggled to get anything going against Miami pitching. The Padres did not record their first hit of the game until the fourth inning when Manny Machado singled to left field. His single was one of just five hits in the game for San Diego while Miami finished with nine hits.

The most critical hit of the night for the Padres came from their most recent roster addition who is also one of their hottest hitters at the moment. Luis Rengifo was called on the pinch-hit for Luis Campusano in the top of the eighth inning. Rengifo stepped to the plate with pinch-runner Jase Bowen on second base after Ty France hit a leadoff double. With one out in the inning, Rengifo hit an 0-1 sweeper that was left over the middle of the plate 361 feet down the right field line for a two-run home run that gave San Diego a 4-2 lead.

Adrian Morejon worked a scoreless eighth inning and turned the ball over to All-Star closer Mason Miller in the bottom of the ninth inning. Miller got two groundouts and a strikeout to earn the save and end the game to keep the Padres’ slim playoff chances alive.

San Diego plays the second game of the series against Miami today at 1:10 p.m.

Padres News:

• The Padres minor league system has apparently been taking its cues from the parent club as teams at all levels have struggled to have success over the past week.

• Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta faced live hitters in Arizona as they work back toward a return to the MLB roster.

• The Padres signed their first-round draft pick Coleman Borthwick and could be getting some bullpen help with Jeremiah Estrada on a rehab assignment in El Paso.

• Ty France has been a nice addition to the Padres roster, but he may also be a valuable trade piece if they decide to sell.

• There are a lot of superstitions in baseball and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune tried to determine which Padres player is the most superstitious.

• There is a lot of speculation about what the Padres will do at the trade deadline, but everyone outside the organization and maybe some inside, just have to wait and see.

Baseball News:

• Cam Scchlittler finished with 12 strikeouts to lead the New York Yankees to a win over the Philadelphia Phillies.

• Roki Sasaki pitched the Los Angeles Dodgers past the New York Mets, 4-2.

• Kazuma Okamoto hit his 23rd home run for the Toronto Blue Jays, but it was not enough to lead them to a win as the Boston Red Sox handed the Blue Jays a 6-4 loss.

• The Texas Rangers beat the Seattle Mariners as the two teams battle for the AL West.

• The Atlanta Braves beat the Baltimore Orioles in 10 innings.

• The Chicago Cubs beat the Pittsburgh Pirates in 10 innings.

• Gabriel Moreno led the Arizona Diamondbacks to a win over the Washington Nationals.

That Atlanta Braves continue their season-long bullpen shuffling by designating last night’s winning pitcher Elieser Hernández for assignment and recalling Connor Thomas ahead of tonight’s match-up against the Baltimore Orioles.

The right-handed Hernández made his Braves debut – and first MLB appearance since 2024 – last night, pitching three innings and picking up the victory. This has been a common theme this season when the team has extended a reliever or swing man an extra inning only to option or designate them for assignment the following day.

Taking Hernández’s spot is another former Milwaukee Brewers pitcher, Connor Thomas, who appeared for the Braves earlier this month. He pitched 3.2 innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates, allowing four runs after starter Hurston Waldrep allowed seven run in 3.1 innings in what would be a 12-4 loss for the Braves.

Thomas the, like Hernández now, was shuffled off the big league roster.

Hernández, who debuted with the Miami Marlins back in 2018, could return to Atlanta if he isn’t claimed by another organization.

The Mets (43-61) continue their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (66-38) on Saturday night at 7:15 p.m. on FOX. Here's what to know about the game and how to watch...

Mets Notes

• Nolan McLean takes the mound as he looks to follow up a stellar 10 strikeout performance over 6.0 scoreless innings on July 19 in a win over the Phillies
• Juan Soto left Friday's game in the sixth inning due to left calf soreness and will undergo an MRI on Saturday
• Francisco Alvarez homered in Friday's loss and is now hitting .304 (7-for-23) with three home runs, four RBI, and four walks over his last seven games

The Wild Ride Is Over

The front office is facing a hell of a dilemma due to the Red Sox historic 15-game winning streak. The team was completely written off by almost everyone, including yours truly, well before late June when they sported an abysmal 32-46 record. Then the Sox put their heads down and matched a franchise record by winning 15 straight games before finally losing to the Orioles in the second game of a doubleheader on Wednesday. Until they started rattling off wins, Craig Breslow was universally expected to sell at the August 3 trade deadline—especially with stars like Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet sidelined on the injured list—but a breathtaking run vaulted the Red Sox straight into the third AL Wild Card spot.

That much we all know. Heck, we lived it. Before writing another word, I want to tip my cap to our guys, our “bunch of dogs” who want to win, and offer a genuine word of thanks. I predicted great things from them right up until March, and then soured on them almost immediately. No one was more surprised than me by this glorious accomplishment, so I feel like I owe it to this team to say something. I didn’t see it coming (even when I was bullish on them over the offseason), but they did it, and it was a hell of a ride. We may never see anything like that again from our beloved team in our lifetimes. It’s still sort of sinking in.

So what I’m about to write causes me pain, and as a fan, I don’t want it to be true. But here it is: I don’t believe the front office will be swept up in this euphoria to the extent that they’ll buy at the trade deadline. I think they’ll play it safe once again and do a little bit of buying and selling. That routine will look familiar to anyone who’s been around this team the past few seasons.

The Evidence

Rumors are linking them with Angels shortstop Zach Neto but the Red Sox are always in on the rumors game. It’s not a great fit (though it speaks worlds about the front office’s lack of confidence in Marcelo Mayer) and I believe the price will be too high.

I believe Jeff Passan was closer to reality when he said:

“For now, their plans are fluid. Boston isn’t discounting pursuing help before Aug. 3. The Red Sox also know that, for an entire half of the season, they personified mediocrity and that 15 games does not a season make.” 

I think he’s being generous to describe their earlier play as “mediocrity” but overall, doesn’t that sound more like the Craig Breslow we know and love?

Breslow knows this team stumbled into the history books by the grace of the baseball gods. It happened at a perfect moment when the rest of the AL has also been pretty terrible. When call-ups like Anthony Seigler and Tsung-Che Cheng stepped up in the face of a slew of injuries. When Wilyer Abreu got hot at the right time. With a perfect suicide squeeze from Carlos Narváez. Clutch home runs by Caleb Durbin. Masataka Yoshida going on a tear. Everyone played a part.

But that’s kind of making the case for me: this group shouldn’t win. This group would never have come together if it weren’t for the string of untimely injuries that forced the team to rely on replacement players (who to their credit became key contributors), good timing, Willson Contreras’ big heart, and some amount of luck. When the rookie call-up pitcher who begins the game that might put you in the history books in your own right (not just as a tie) gets immediately optioned back to Triple-A after the streak ends, well, you can see how this was kind of put together with duct tape from the beginning. The team has essentially run out yet another Quad A lineup in many ways – except that in July, it happened to work! We saw alchemy right before our eyes. It shouldn’t work, but it did work.

Can the Magic Keep Going?

Lightning in a bottle probably only happens once. Don’t get me wrong; I love Seigler and his style of play and I devoutly hope that Contreras continues to be a bedrock and an inspiration for this team. This is not a knock on what has been, but a realistic assessment of what might lie in front of the team.

Neither Craig Breslow nor John Henry are going to get caught up in the emotional high of the 15-game streak because that’s not what they do. They don’t think or behave like fans, which is partly why they’re so infuriating.

Suppose that they did strengthen the roster. It might possibly play in the AL which is a weak, weak league this year. But even if they could make it through to the World Series, does anyone think they can out-roster the Dodgers? No way. Yes, relying on a strong rotation is a strategy in the postseason, especially in the short rounds. But several issues there: our own rotation has been, and is still, depleted by injuries, and our young arms are quickly about to bump against career highs in innings pitched. Also, teams still need to score runs, not just prevent them (we learned that lesson the hard way, all the way through June).

Trading long-term assets to bolster a team that is still deeply flawed, and deeply depleted—no matter how much they over-performed in July—doesn’t feel like something Henry and Breslow would do. The baseball gods stepped in for a while to make sure we didn’t forget how wonderful baseball is. Maybe they didn’t want soccer to have all the fun this summer. But Breslow won’t pay a premium to save a season that came back from the brink by the alignment of the stars.

That’s what fans want – myself included. How much different would our roster look right now if the front office listened to the fans? No need to answer that rhetorical question because we know it in our bones. They don’t listen, and they won’t buy.

To clarify, they won’t buy much and they won’t buy enough. Look for a some-of-this-and-some-of-that approach, as they try to satisfy both sides of the equation. It hasn’t worked in recent seasons and it won’t work this year either.

But we’ll always have those 15 games in July – the games that almost pushed ownership into thinking about being all-in buyers at the deadline.

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Another busy schedule means a lot of opportunity for bombs, and I've found value in my MLB player props home run analysis. 

Today's picks include Yordan Alvarez, CJ Abrams, and Drake Baldwin. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 25. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
CJ Abrams	+495
Yordan Alvarez	+208
Drake Baldwin	+310

Home run pick: CJ Abrams (+495)

Washington Nationals star CJ Abrams cannot be stopped right now. 

The shortstop has a .560 ISO across his last six games, and he's homered four times during that span. What really stands out here is Abrams' mind-boggling 22.2% barrel rate in the last week. He's tearing the cover off the baseball. 

Abrams will face struggling Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Mitch Bratt, who owns a 9.10 FIP in his last two appearances while allowing 3.52 HR/9. The Arizona bullpen hasn't been giving up a ton of homers lately, but they're vulnerable at times, posting a 4.75 xERA in the last week. 

Abrams has lots of opportunity here to go yard again. 

I'll play this pick down to +300. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBacks.TV, Nationals.TV

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+208)

Yordan Alvarez has smacked three bombs in his last six games while posting a .438 ISO. The underlying numbers hint at another homer tonight -- Alvarez owns a 21.1% barrel rate and 52.6% hard-hit rate during the last week. He's jumping on everything. 

The Houston Astros slugger will face Sean Burke tonight. He's been vulnerable at times against left-handed hitters, giving up 1.15 HR/9 this season. The Chicago White Sox bullpen has allowed that same number of homers in the last two weeks. 

With three long balls in his previous four appearances alone, there's value here. 

I'll play this pick down to +200. 

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, CHSN

Home run pick: Drake Baldwin (+310)

Drake Baldwin has broken out as one of the Atlanta Braves' top power bats this season, and he's scorching hot right now. The catcher has clubbed four home runs in his last seven games while posting a .429 ISO. 

Baldwin has put 39% of his contact in the air during that span, and they've left the yard 44.4% of the time. He'll face Baltimore Orioles starter Brandon Young tonight, who has allowed just 1.13 HR/9 over the last month. 

However, Young is vulnerable to fly balls right now. Nearly 50% of his contact in his last 23.1 innings is in the air, and opponents are averaging a 21.1 launch angle and 43.7% hard-hit rate. The O's bullpen is also allowing 2.16 HR/9 in their last 16.1 frames. 

I'll play this pick down to +250. 

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, MASN

Today’s HR parlay

CJ Abrams	Bet Now +6949
Drake Baldwin
Yordan Alvarez

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

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The Cubs didn’t generate much offense Friday night in Pittsburgh, just six hits and three walks. They struck out 11 times and left seven runners on base.

Thanks to some great defensive work, solid pitching, a Pete Crow-Armstrong homer and a two-run 10th inning, the Cubs opened their road trip with a 3-2 win over the Pirates in 10 innings at PNC Park Friday night.

Neither team scored through four innings as starters Matthew Boyd and Jared Jones dominated. The Cubs had some help from the defense in getting out of the third inning. Nico Hoerner made a spectacular diving stop of a ground ball by Nick Gonzales with two on and two out and Nico and Alex Bregman pulled off this play [VIDEO].

That’s just heads-up defense all the way around. It would not be the last great defensive play by the Cubs on the evening.

The Pirates took a 1-0 lead in the fifth without hitting the ball out of the infield. Boyd walked the first two Pirates he faced in that inning and Jared Triolo laid down a perfect bunt and beat it out for a hit, so the bases are loaded with nobody out. An infield single by Henry Davis scored a run and left the bases loaded. But Boyd bore down and got two routine fly balls and then struck out Bryan Reynolds to end the inning.

That’s a pretty good result, only one run scoring with the bases loaded and nobody out. The run expectancy matrix says teams should score at least two, maybe three runs in that situation.

The Cubs got that run back in a hurry. With one out in the sixth, Pete Crow-Armstrong went deep, his 22nd home run [VIDEO].

A note on PCA’s homer from BCB’s JohnW53:

This is the sixth consecutive game in which the Cubs have hit at least one home run, their longest such streak since seven in a row, June 15-24, which matched their season high, set May 2-8. They had two previous streaks of six games, April 12-18 and 20-25.

The score was still 1-1 heading to the bottom of the seventh, with Boyd still in the game. A pair of one-out singles put Pirates runners on first and third.

Then this happened [VIDEO].

Ian Happ played that perfectly. He set up so his momentum was taking him toward the plate as he made the catch, and he made a perfect throw to Carson Kelly for the tag and an inning-ending double play. For Happ, it was his fourth assist of the year, which leads the league, and his 39th over the last five seasons. He’s going to win another Gold Glove this year.

Boyd had an outstanding outing, seven innings, one run, four strikeouts. His ERA dropped to 3.81. More from John:

Matthew Boyd’s quality start was his fourth of the season, tying Edward Cabrera, Colin Rea and Jameson Taillon for second most among Cubs pitchers, behind Shōta Imanaga’s eight.

Boyd has made 11 starts; Cabrera, 14; Rea, 17; Taillon, 14; and Imanaga, 20.

And a bit more on Boyd’s evening [VIDEO].

No one came close to scoring in the eighth or ninth, so on the game went to extras.

In the top of the 10th, Happ was the placed runner. Pedro Ramirez beat out an infield grounder to put runners on first and second with one out after Nico had struck out. Michael Conforto batted for Kelly and hit a soft line drive to second.

Dansby Swanson was the next hitter. He singled, and… well, watch [VIDEO].

You can see that Happ beat the throw, but his foot might have come off the plate as he was crossing it. The call on the field was “safe.” At one point you can see Happ’s back leg possibly touch the plate before Davis tags him. It’s really hard to tell, and so the play was ruled “call stands” and the Cubs had a 2-1 lead, with runners still on first and second with two out.

Then PCA’s bat scared the Pirates into giving him an intentional pass after running a 2-0 count on him, loading the bases

Pirates pitcher Yohan Ramirez was a bit wild in this inning and Seiya Suzuki took four pitches outside the zone for a walk, forcing in another run [VIDEO].

The bases are still loaded, but Michael Busch struck out to end the inning. Still, the Cubs had a two-run lead and as the visiting team, that’s really the least you want in the top of an extra inning.

Gavin Hollowell, who entered the game with one career save (in 2023 with the Rockies) was given the save opportunity. Davis was the placed runner and was advanced to third on a bunt that went for a hit — the Cubs will take that, there’s one out, on one pitch. Two pitches later Gonzales grounded to Swanson, and of course the Cubs will trade a run for an out in that situation.

Now it’s a 3-2 game with two out and nobody on. And Hollowell rose to the occasion [VIDEO].

In so doing Hollowell became the 11th Cub to record a save this year. The other 10, from John, along with the number of saves each has recorded:

5: Jacob Webb
3: Daniel Palencia and Trent Thornton
2: Caleb Thielbar and Jordan Wicks
1: Ben Brown, Corbin Martin, Hoby Miller, Colin Rea, Ryan Rolison

And if you think that’s weird, check this out (Bluesky link):

The Cubs’ total of 21 saves ranks 23rd in MLB, but a win is a win, and the Cubs will certainly take this one. The win improved the Cubs’ record in one-run games to 16-10, and their extra-inning record is now 8-5.

And they gained a game on the Brewers in the NL Central. Thanks, Rockies, for defeating the Brewers Friday afternoon. The Cubs edge to within six games of the division lead. The Cubs also gained a game on the Phillies for the first wild-card spot and now lead Philadelphia by 2.5 games for that spot.

Here’s Happ on that run and the team’s defense [VIDEO].

And here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

The Cubs will go for the series win Saturday evening at PNC Park. Shōta Imanaga will start for the Cubs and Paul Skenes will go for the Pirates. Game time is again 5:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Meet the Mets

The Mets began a three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field last night, and unsurprisingly the best team in baseball defeated one of the worst teams in baseball. Sean Manaea pitched six solid one-run innings, but Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter combined to give up three runs over the next two innings, and solo homers were all the Mets’ bats could muster.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, NY Post, North Jersey

In addition to the loss, Juan Soto exited yesterday’s game early due to calf soreness and will now undergo an MRI.

Prior to yesterday’s game, David Stearns spoke about the organization’s approach as they near a crucial trade deadline.

Of all the Mets’ trade chips, Luke Weaver is the one who might net them the biggest return at the deadline.

Clay Holmes acknowledged his unique circumstances as the final stages of his rehab assignment coincide with the pending trade deadline.

To the surprise of absolutely no one, Kyle Tucker is not second-guessing his decision to spurn the Mets in favor of the Dodgers this past offseason.

Zack Wheeler offered some thoughts on the struggles of his former team.

Soto may not win MVP this year, but perhaps an Oscar is in his future.

Around the National League East

A three-run homer from Matt Olson in the tenth inning propelled the Braves to a 7-6 victory over the Orioles.

The Phillies had no answer for Cam Schlittler, and a solo homer from Paul Goldschmidt was enough to doom Philadelphia to a 1-0 loss against the Yankees.

The Nationals are treating their series against the Diamondbacks like a postseason series, and they are now down 0-1 in that postseason series after suffering a 3-2 defeat last night.

The Marlins’ losing streak has now reached ten games after a 4-2 loss to the Padres as the Fish continue to sink out of playoff contention.

After being placed on the injured list earlier this week, the Marlins have shut Max Meyer down from throwing for at least two weeks.

Around Major League Baseball

Shohei Ohtani will attempt another bullpen session today, but the Dodgers insist they will not rush their star back to the mound.

Joey Votto discussed the nerves he is feeling as he prepares for his new role as a commentator.

Luis Arráez is one of the interesting names available at the deadline, and there are numerous potential suitors for him.

Freddy Peralta is one of many trade candidates who teams are hoping will be better than their 2026 stats thus far.

It’s Hall of Fame induction weekend, so it’s a good time to read up on this year’s class.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Chris McShane previewed the weekend series against the mighty Dodgers.

This Date in Mets History

Bob Murphy had a damn memorable call on the radio on this date in 1990.

The 2026 MLB draft wrapped up last weekend, with six Tar Heels getting selected by a major league team. Somewhat surprisingly, Gavin Gallaher wasn’t one of them; the clutch-hitting junior wasn’t selected, and will return to UNC next season to further hone his skills (and presumably make some decent NIL money).

Five different MLB teams selected a Tar Heel, with the Red Sox opting to grab both Jake Schaffner and Owen Hull. Coming off an impressive post-season showing, Jason Decaro is heading to Pittsburgh. Ryan Lynch and Matthew Matthijs will both head west and join the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners, respectively. Macon Winslow was drafted by the Phillies to round out the Carolina selections.

So, who ended up in the best spot for to further their development and career? It’s obviously an opinion-based question, but let’s give it a shot. The Red Sox are known as a pretty decent farm system to play for; and development aside, both Schaffner and Hull have to be a little stoked to have their college roommate in the same organization. That being said, I feel like Ryan Lynch landed in a good spot with the Padres. According to Padres vice president Chris Kemp, the team has had an eye on Lynch much of the year and thinks he has starter potential. Having that kind of vote of confidence coming in helps; playing in a pitcher-friendly park in a lower pressure organization like the Padres is good as well. So, my answer would be Lynch; it seems like he landed in a great spot to make his MLB aspirations a reality.

Which Diamond Heel do you think landed in the best spot? Let us know below!

The trade deadline is all anyone is talking about with the final days ticking down. The Phillies, as are all of the other contenders in the league, are definitely going to be buyers, which means one or several moves are going to be in the offing.

Or are they?

Matt Gelb wrote the other day about the team scouring for starting pitching and coming to something of a conclusion about their deadline strategy:

The Phillies have told teams in recent weeks that they are searching for a No. 5 starter, according to several sources from rival clubs who were granted anonymity to disclose trade talks. That is no surprise. But, of late, the Phillies have been more willing to discuss higher-caliber arms — the kind of pitcher who would be capable of starting a postseason game.

That would cost more in prospects than a filler fifth starter. But, as the Phillies have canvassed the dearth of hitting upgrades and considered their bullpen situation, all roads could lead to a bigger rotation addition as the piece that raises the bar the most.

Does this mean that the team is willing to continue with their current roster and only add a significantly more expensive piece at the deadline, or are they going to just tinker around the edges to raise the floor of the entire roster? It’s an interesting thing to think about.

It has been a fun year for Cardinals prospect watchers. With one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, there is something exciting happening almost every day. Sadly, we only have six to eight weeks left of minor league baseball to enjoy. Today I want to highlight the handful of prospects that will have the opportunity to further cement themselves in the Cardinals’ future plans as we reach the stretch run. Just for fun, I will highlight the players I am betting on to finish the season with a flourish. 

Please note: The statistics in this article do not include games played Friday night.

Waiting for the Call

The Cardinals have six rookies on the active roster, including JJ Wetherholt, Bryan Torres, Blaze Jordan, Jimmy Crooks, Luis Gastelum, and Nathan Church. Despite the influx of youth, there are still four legitimate prospects I would expect to debut in some capacity. We have talked a lot about these guys already, so I will keep this brief, but this group of players will keep the remainder of the season interesting, even if the Cardinals’ playoff chances fizzle. 

Joshua Baez and Leonardo Bernal are already on the 40-man roster and a phone call away. They might not be 100% ready, but the Cardinals need to see what they have going into 2027. Cade Winquest has flown under the radar since being returned by the Yankees. His ERA of 5.74, more than two runs higher than his xFIP of 3.50, has obscured the fact that he has been dominant in Memphis. With Luis Gastelum promoted to St. Louis, Winquest is the most exciting reliever on the farm with a chance to make a real impact this season. 

Player to Bet On

Quinn Mathews has gone from one of the hottest prospects in baseball in 2024 to a huge question mark thanks to his continued struggles with command. He is one of the most fun guys to watch when he is on, and one of the most frustrating when his control abandons him. Well, he may have finally turned the corner. Mathews has an 18/3 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last three starts. Over his last eight starts, he has pitched 45.1 innings and walked only 16 batters. This improvement in walk rate is no fluke. Over his first ten starts, Mathews threw only 40.6% of his pitches in the strike zone (MLB average is 47.6%). In the following eight starts, his Zone% was 48.3%. Most of this improvement has come from a four-seam fastball that he is now landing in the zone 55.1% of the time. He has improved his command without sacrificing velocity or allowing harder contact. Quinn is ready. 

Making up for Lost Time

The guys in this group will all have incomplete grades for their 2026 campaigns due to time missed. However, they are all back now, and there is still enough time to turn the season into a positive. 

Brandon Clarke has thrown the loudest three innings of any pitcher I can remember thanks to topping out at 103.1 mph in his first inning at Palm Beach. With some of the best pure stuff in minor league baseball, he will rocket into national top-100 prospect lists if he finishes the season strong and healthy. Cooper Hjerpe is striking out 44.1% of Double-A batters through his first seven innings pitched. His fastball velocity has fully returned as he averaged 92.1 mph in Statcast-tracked games. If he irons out the command, he could get a shot in St. Louis late this season. Ixan Henderson is finally back and has already ramped up to 48 pitches in his Low-A rehab start earlier this week. Henderson is Rule 5 eligible this fall, so hopefully he can finish out the year flashing the stuff that made him one of the biggest risers in the system last year. 

Players to Bet On

Yairo Padilla has only 51 plate appearances at Low-A due to a shoulder injury this spring, but he has been fantastic thus far with a 157 wRC+. To get the negatives out of the way, the concern with Padilla’s offensive game is his difficulty in elevating the baseball. This trend has held in his first taste of full-season ball. His groundball rate of 53.6% and his Launch Angle Sweet Spot of 21% would both rank as some of the worst in baseball. 

The rest of his offensive game has been extremely impressive for a player who is just barely 19. His max exit velocity of 109.3 mph and his 90th-percentile EV of 105.7 are both close to major-league average. He is also running an elite 96% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone. If he keeps up his current rate of production for the last six weeks of the season, he will start to make noise on national top-prospect lists. Sure, the sample size has been tiny, but the results have been extremely exciting so far. 

Deniel Ortiz is flying under the radar a bit with the Springfield Cardinals. Rainiel Rodriguez (rightfully) gets most of the attention, and Won-Bin Cho and Jesus Baez have grabbed headlines with incredible power binges. Ortiz carries a 99 wRC+ through his first 97 Double-A plate appearances, but there are still extremely positive signs in the early going. Ortiz’s plate discipline was excellent last season, and that has carried over to Springfield as he has maintained a 91st-percentile Chase%. The biggest concern for Ortiz coming into the season was his contact ability. So far, he has increased his contact rate from 71.8% to 79.1% while moving up a level. 

His power has not shown up yet, but he is recovering from a hand injury, so that is not surprising. I am not worried about the power. Ortiz posted a max exit velocity of 110.1 mph with a 90th-percentile EV of 105.3 mph at Palm Beach. Like Rainiel Rodriguez, he makes his money getting the ball in the air to the pull side. Despite the overall lack of pop, he still ranks in the 86th percentile in Pull Air% so far this year. 

If the contact rate gains hold through the end of the season, Ortiz may be the second-most-complete hitting prospect in the system after Rodriguez. 

Finishing the Breakout 

Tanner Franklin and Yoiker Fajardo came out of the gates hot for Peoria and have put together impressive seasons. Could either of them be in line for a few starts in Springfield to close out the year? Franklin may be getting close to his innings limit as he has already set a career high with 62.1, so that may be a factor. Fajardo threw 72 innings last year and just passed that total in his last start. He has been incredible in his last five starts, striking out 39.1%(!) of the batters he has faced across 22.1 innings. If he is promoted, he will be the youngest pitcher to appear in a Double-A game this season. 

Player to Bet On

Sebastian Dos Santos was one of my favorite prospects entering the season, and he has done nothing but deliver in 2026. The switch-hitting shortstop laid waste to the Florida Complex League with six home runs in 27 games to earn a promotion to Palm Beach. Dos Santos has held his own in Low-A as one of just 22 18-year-olds to play in full-season ball this year. His 99 wRC+ is seventh among the group. He has been a bit passive with a 38th-percentile Swing%, but his average exit velocity, Chase%, and Contact% are all above average for the league. Dos Santos has already popped a 109.5 mph max exit velocity, which is incredible for a player his age. Unlike Padilla, Dos Santos excels at hitting the ball in the air with a 38% Launch Angle Sweet Spot. 

Conclusion

All these players are fun and extremely important to the Cardinals’ future, but if I were forced to pick one to make waves down the stretch, give me Sebastian Dos Santos. I think we are a little spoiled by the Rainiel Rodriguez experience last season. Dos Santos is not quite on that level yet, but he is one of the most impressive teenage performers the Cardinals have had in some time. His blend of power, discipline, and contact ability at such a young age is extremely rare. He has a chance to be the next big thing in the Cardinals’ system, and I am betting he finishes 2026 with a bang. 

Ronald Acuña Jr could be back with the Atlanta Braves as soon as today. Ronald is returning to the Braves after straining his left hamstring in consecutive months. They have been much more careful with Sean Murphy, Ha-Seong Kim and Ronald after shorter IL stints earlier this season. In light of his numerous lower body injuries, I was wondering if they might ease him back into the lineup. I was also wondering if this option is even considered by the Braves and Acuña.

One of the big themes of the last two months is the rally of save the bullpen. Right now, no reliever pitches three days in a row. In some cases, some relievers are not allowed to go on consecutive days. And we saw this last night. Elieser Hernández pitched 3 innings of 3 walk/2 strikeout ball (to be fair, one walk was intentional). He hadn’t pitched since July 12th in Gwinnett, and hadn’t pitched in the major league in two years. It’s fair to say he was rested, and he carried the Braves through the late innings as Raisel Iglesias and Didier Fuentes did not appear. It might also be fair to say that he will enter the DFA cycle later today.

For the great lengths that the Braves are going to preserve their bullpen throughout the season, they aren’t bothering to rest the everyday players. Austin Riley has started every game but one, and has been asked to work through his struggles. Mauricio Dubon has started 98 games. Matt Olson is going to play every game as well, as they won’t pull him off his streak. It seems that the only way for everyday players to get a rest is to pull a muscle.

In the first 8 games of Ronald’s return after his first 2026 IL stint, he put together a .167/.306/.206 with a 53 wRC+. His xwOBA wasn’t terrible at .304, but it did take him a week to get back in the swing of baseball bats. So they may not miss a lot if the Braves ease him back into playing everyday. Maybe they could put him at DH for a couple of days, then gave him a full day off, followed by two of the next three games in the field.

So how much should Ronald Acuña Jr play in his first week back? I’m not sure of the answer, but I think we all know what will happen.