Chaim Bloom and the Cardinals front office have spent the last year feverishly adding as much pitching talent to the farm system as possible. As ORSTLcardsfan noted in his article yesterday, this has been a “re-stock the pitching pipeline” year.
I think most of us were happy with the pitchers and types of pitchers brought into the organization, but have the results followed the supposed increase in talented arms?
There are a couple of ways I want to do this. First, by looking at the team level statistics for each of the full-season clubs and how they are trending year over year relative to their respective leagues. The second is by looking at which individual prospects have taken major steps forward or back this season. I will keep the individual pitcher updates to a minimum since Gabe has covered that recently here for the upper minors and here for the lower minors.
Put simply: is the pitching pipeline actually getting better?
Team Statistics Overview
For the team level statistics, I am focusing on age, K%, BB%, and HR%. The average age is weighted by the number of plate appearances against. Yhoiker Fajardo’s 183 batters faced in High-A as a 19-year-old have a greater impact on the team’s average age than former teammate Aaron Holiday’s 56 batters faced as a 26-year-old.
There has been an explosion of home runs at the three lowest levels of the minor leagues, so I also looked at leaguewide statistics. I think this is helpful because it gives some context on the performances of the Cardinals pitchers (and hitters, for that matter), but also gives us a more consistent baseline to evaluate against.
Changes in Prospect Grades
I am highlighting players that, in my opinion, have significantly changed their prospect grade based on their performance this year. My intent was to be very conservative about moving players since we are still relatively early on in the year. For example, Leonel Sequera has a 9.07 ERA and has given up 12 home runs through his first 43.2 innings pitched. Obviously this is a horrible stat line, but he also showed improved velocity in spring training, moved up a level, and is running a 16.4% K-BB% as a 20-year-old in High-A. I consider him to be holding steady with his preseason expectations/grade.
For injured players, I am delineating between players who were injured entering the year and those who have had injuries since the start of spring training. So, Cooper Hjerpe’s prospect grade has not changed since the start of the year, but Ixan Henderson and Frank Elissalt are trending down.
I am not saying this is the right or only methodology, but I am trying to measure progress relative to our offseason expectations and that is the best I could come up with.
Finally, I am including the FanGraphs preseason ranking for each prospect for reference. I don’t agree with their list completely, but it is a solid reference point. Now, on to Memphis!
Memphis Redbirds
The first section in the table shows the year-over-year changes to the age, K%, BB%, and HR% for the International League as a whole. The second section of the table shows the Cardinals-specific performance in 2025 and 2026. Finally, the Cardinals vs. League section shows the Cardinals staff performance relative to the league year-over-year. The scores are scaled so that 100 is average and higher is better. So, the Cardinals Age score of 104 indicates that their average pitcher is 4% younger than the International League as a whole.
Overall, the Redbirds have improved in every metric. The average age of the pitching staff has decreased from 27 to 26.3, which is fourth youngest in the 20-team league. Strikeouts, walks, and home runs have all gone from just below league average to above.
Prospects holding steady
Quinn Matthews (10), Brycen Mautz (17), Hancel Rincon (18), Pete Hansen (19), Luis Gastelum (31), Skylar Hales (38)
Prospect injured list
Tekoah Roby (12), Sem Robberse (22)
Prospects trending up
Max Rajcic (NR) has transitioned from starting to relieving quite nicely. As a relief-only arm, he is probably not a top-30 prospect in their system, but he now looks like an actual major leaguer. Cade Winquest (NR) counts as trending up simply by virtue of being returned from the Yankees after being made their first Rule 5 selection since 2011. Winquest was ranked as the Yankees 12th-best prospect by FanGraphs, and based on his 40 FV grade, would have ranked between 23-33 on the Cardinals offseason list. Anyway, getting an arm like Winquest back in the system was a great break. He is pitching in relief now, but still throwing five or six pitches, so if everything breaks right, he could follow the Kyle Leahy path to the rotation.
Prospects trending down
Tink Hence (11) has moved to a relief role and suffered a big drop in velocity and results out of the Memphis bullpen. After a stint on the development list, Hence at least showed better stuff in his return to Memphis.
Still, Hence may fall out of updated top-30 Cardinals lists and is still taking up a spot on the 40-man roster. Never count a pitcher with Hence’s talent out, but he is running out of time.
Ixan Henderson (16) is still working his way back from an arm injury that surfaced in spring training. He is apparently still on track to pitch in July or August, but the injury timing was quite unfortunate following his breakout 2025.
The Matt Pushard (43) era ended after seven magical innings in St. Louis. The Rule 5 draftee was returned to Miami.
Springfield Cardinals
Home runs in the Texas League are up almost 40%! This is encouraging context for a star-studded rotation. The Springfield staff as a whole is not quite matching up to the historically effective 2025 team, but it is still above average and is significantly younger.
Prospects holding steady
Liam Doyle (2), Jurrangelo Cijntje (5), Chen-Wei Lin (15), Austin Love (32), Braden Davis (36)
Prospect injured list
Brandon Clarke (6), Cooper Hjerpe (21)
Prospects trending up
Mason Molina (41) was the least heralded member of the Springfield rotation to start the year, but has been the best starter in terms of ERA and FIP. He came into the year as a lottery ticket (acquired in the Phil Maton trade) that likely profiled as a bullpen arm. Molina showed off a devastating fastball in spring training and now looks like he might profile as a backend starter. He is easily a top-30 prospect in the organization for me.
Prospects trending Down
FanGraphs always includes relief pitchers with great arms like Randel Clemente (45) on their prospect lists. Clemente was not a real prospect coming into the season, in my opinion. He is still walking almost a batter per inning. He is striking out 40% of hitters, so he will probably keep getting chances, but the control is just not clicking.
Peoria Chiefs
To one-up the Texas League, Midwest League home runs are up more than 50% with around a 2% increase in both K% and BB%. Peoria’s staff has the highest home run per batter faced in the league, but has improved strikeout and walk rates. It will be worth following to see if the bloated home run totals are still partially a small sample-size issue, or if the trend continues.
Prospects holding steady
Leonel Sequera (28), Blake Aita (35)
Prospects trending up
Tanner Franklin (24) is probably the biggest up arrow guy in the Cardinals system. Keith Law ranked him as the 25th-best prospect in baseball at the Athletic. While this feels a little aggressive, he is poised to start joining other top 100 lists if he keeps up his current pace a bit longer. Yhoiker Fajardo (33) is one of six 19-year-olds to pitch in High-A this year.He has the 11th-best K-BB% (minimum 40 IP) of any pitcher in the minor leagues at 25%. Fajardo has struggled with the home run ball, like everyone in Peoria, but he could be making a run at top 100 prospect lists by year’s end as well. Jacob Odle (NR) is the biggest arrow up pitching prospect in the system that was unranked entering the season. He has just one High-A start but terrorized the Florida State League with a wicked fastball averaging 97.1 MPH and 17.5 inches of induced vertical break (IVB). For reference, Chase Burns is the only qualified starting pitcher in MLB to throw harder (98 MPH) with more IVB (18.7). Odle has less than 100 professional innings pitched and is already 22, but he is officially on the prospect watchlist.
Prospects trending down
Nate Dohm (34) was acquired in the Ryan Helsley trade and was one of the more popular picks to break out this year. As a former reliever with great stuff, he was in a similar category as Tanner Franklin entering the year. Unfortunately, he has battled command and only been able to get through 24 innings in nine appearances. I am not ready to write him off, but he is trending in the wrong direction. Jose Davila (37) has barely pitched this year and Frank Elissalt (42) has not appeared at all. Despite the low ranking, Elissalt has a lot of fans in the prospect-watching community thanks to a nasty fastball, but he is still working his way back from a hip injury suffered in spring training.
Palm Beach Cardinals
Florida State League home runs are up 37%, right in line with the Palm Beach team’s year-over-year increase. Strikeout rates in the league have jumped almost 3%, which makes the Cardinals increase look a bit less impressive. The Palm Beach roster is light on prospects relative to the other teams in the system, but Brian Holiday is a non-ranked name to watch that has just joined the club after returning from his Tommy John rehab.
Prospects holding steady
Cade Crossland (23), Jack Martinez (39), Ethan Young (40)
Prospects trending down
Yordy Herrera (44) is in the same category for me as Clemente, but I am including him for completeness of the FanGraphs list. He is still in Low-A and not getting results.
Conclusion
So, where does that leave us? At the team level, every level except Palm Beach has gotten younger. All four teams are striking out between 3%-11% more than the league average. Three of the four teams have improved their walk rate relative to the league, with Springfield being the exception. Peoria’s staff has been a weird outlier on the home run front, but the other staffs are above average in that department as well. To me, the younger staffs and improved strikeout rates are encouraging signs that the talent level within the system is rising.
When looking at individual players trending up vs. trending down, I think the signs are encouraging as well. Franklin and Fajardo are both taking major steps forward. Odle is one of the most exciting out-of-nowhere arms I can remember in quite some time. Mason Molina could be a back-end starter and getting Cade Winquest back in the system was a nice bonus. These developments more than offset the continued struggles of Hence, the injuries to Ixan Henderson and Frank Elissalt, and the poor start by Nate Dohm.
Cooper Hjerpe made his first rehab appearance on Friday night in the complex league. How Hjerpe, Henderson, and Clarke pitch in the second half will have a huge impact on the pitching picture going into 2027, but based on what we’ve seen so far, Bloom’s plan is trending in the right direction.