MLB Expert Picks & Baseball Predictions July 29

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We've got another busy day of baseball as we hit the dog days of summer just ahead of the trade deadline.

Our MLB expert picks are eyeing two high-scoring clashes, including the Battle of Ohio between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds and the nightcap in Hollywood with the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers. We're also targeting a pair of moneylines in the early-evening slate.

Let's dive in with our full MLB picks for Wednesday, July 29.

  • UPDATE: Added Over 8.5 for tonight's Guardians vs. Reds game.

MLB expert picks for today

PickOdds
Josh Inglis Josh Inglis: SEA/LAD o9.5-104
Jon Metler Jon Metler: NYY ML-133
Joe Osborne Joe Osborne: TB ML-133
Jason Wilson Jason Wilson: CLE/CIN o8.5-117

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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mariners vs Dodgers Over 9.5

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

THE BAT makes this total one of the biggest edges on the board, projecting 11.88 runs with a fair price around -150.

The Seattle Mariners burned both their closer and primary setup man in last night's 7-6 win, a game that featured 23 hits and eight home runs at Dodger Stadium.

The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't in much better shape, with only a handful of trustworthy right-handed bullpen options (Evan Phillips, Brock Stewart, and Edgardo Henriquez) behind lefty starter Eric Lauer, who projects for around a 90-pitch leash.

The conditions also favor offense. It's expected to be around 80 degrees with the wind blowing out. Shohei Ohtani may finally be breaking out of his post-break slump, and Seattle is a perfect 5-0 to the Over on its current road trip.

I'll take the best +EV total on the board with Lauer on the mound and Seattle missing its top bullpen arms.

  • Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
  • How to watch: Mariners.TV/SportsNet LA

Jon Metler's expert pick: Yankees moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

Cam Schlittler isn't just one of the favorites to win the American League Cy Young Award — he's the favorite.

The Chicago White Sox's projected lineup is expected to feature seven left-handed hitters, many of whom are young and will be seeing Schlittler for the first time. That's a matchup I want to target.

Schlittler excels at elevating his four-seam fastball on the inner half against lefties, consistently tying hitters up and preventing them from extending their hands. It's a major reason his four-seam fastball has a +15 run value.

Young left-handed hitters often struggle to handle that combination of velocity and location, undercutting the pitch and producing harmless fly balls instead of hard contact.

The Yankees are trading as a 57-cent favorite on Polymarket, but I make them closer to 61 cents. That edge is enough for me to hit the button.

  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • How to watch: Amazon Prime Video, CHSN

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rays moneyline

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

The Tampa Bay Rays are in a great spot to take care of business at home, where they've racked up an MLB-best 38 wins this season.

Like a lot of us, Texas Rangers lefty MacKenzie Gore gets hammered when he travels, posting a 6.02 ERA on the road and surrendering five earned runs in each of his away starts this month. 

That's a concern against a Tampa Bay lineup that consistently does its best work at Tropicana Field.

Even if Gore keeps it close early, he's backed by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA in July.

On the other side, it's a bullpen day for the Rays, but that's not a bad thing! Tampa Bay's bullpen ranks among the league's best in both ERA and FIP this month, making a reliever carousel far less concerning than it sounds.

  • Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
  • How to watch: RSN, Rays.TV

Jason Wilson's expert pick: Guardians vs Reds Over 8.5

Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket

Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer has been one of baseball's worst starters. His 0.6 WAR at FanGraphs is tied for seventh-worst among starting pitchers with at least 100 innings under their belts this season. It's easy to see why.

Singer's 4.53 ERA is bad, but his expected ERA (5.02) suggests things should be even worse. He's averaging 91.3 mph on his fastball (eighth percentile), and it's getting hammered. Even a lineup as inconsistent as the Cleveland Guardians can make him pay, especially with Jose Ramirez healthy and Chase DeLauter slashing .310/.371/.517 with four home runs and six doubles since the start of July.

The Reds bullpen is also unreliable, owning a 4.53 ERA as a unit with the league's worst walk rate (12.8%) among relief corps. So if Singer limits the damage, which is a dubious scenario, the bullpen hasn't exactly held things together.

But Joey Cantillo will serve up his own share of problems for Cleveland, especially when the likes of Sal Stewart and Elly De La Cruz step in against him. They've combined for 14 home runs off left-handed pitchers, and Elly is slashing .326/.398/.663 in the split while Stewart is at .284/.387/.526.

Finally, Great American Ballpark is seeing some of the best hitting conditions on the slate, according to BallparkPal, making Singer and Cantillo's night even less positive. For them, anyway. It suits our purposes just fine.

  • Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
  • How to watch: Guardians.TV, Reds.TV

More MLB best bets for today

PickOdds
NYY ML-145
Read analysis in our Yankees vs. White Sox predictions
LAD -1.5+120
Read analysis in our Mariners vs. Dodgers predictions
ATL ML-121
Read analysis in our Braves vs. Mets Game 1 predictions

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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64 Days Until Opening Night: The History Of Jersey #64

There have only been two players wear the #64 for the Columbus Blue Jackets. Unfortunately for Columbus, neither one of them made a significant impact for Columbus. Cleveland is a different story, however. 

Trey Fix-Wolansky - 2019-25

Many people thought, despite being drafted so late in the draft and his diminutive size —5-foot-7, 180 pounds —he would turn out to be a really good winger in the NHL. So far, he’s yet to be able to show his talent at the NHL level.

Fix-Wolansky played three seasons in the WHL for the Edmonton Oil Kings. In those three seasons, he played 206 games, scored 93 goals, and had 245 points. His production improved year after year, so many thought he could translate that into the pros.

He made his full-season pro debut during the 2019-20 season for the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. He would play in 43 games, score 12 goals, and end with 26 points. The following season, he suffered a leg injury that required surgery, limiting him to only nine games. But even in those limited games, he would have nine points.

In the 2021-22 season, Fix-Wolansky played in 53 games and had 33 points, but more importantly, on February 8th, 2022, he would make his NHL debut. Fix-Wolansky would score in his debut against the Washington Capitals, taking a pass and sneaking the puck by Phoenix Copley. He finished playing in six games for Columbus that season, netting two points. He had five shots in those six games and had an average time on ice of around six minutes. 

TFW's breakout season in the AHL would be the 2022-23 season. He would score 29 goals and total 71 points in 61 games. He set career highs in goals, assists, points, games played, and power-play goals. Fix-Wolansky played in nine games for the CBJ, scoring only one goal. He did average almost 13 minutes a game, however.

Fix-Wolansky had two very good seasons in 23-24 and 24-25. In each season, he finished with 26 goals and 60 points. Despite having an unreal career for Cleveland over the last seven years, Fix-Wolansky never got an extended chance to prove he could be an everyday NHL player and was not tendered a contract in 2025. He went on to sign a deal with the New York Rangers. He would never play for the Rangers, but played 72 games for the AHL's Hartford Wolf Pack, scoring 31 goals and totaling 55 points.

He is signed with the AHL's Abbotsford Canucks for next season. 

TFW is generally considered the greatest player in Monsters' history. He leads the Monsters franchise with 112 goals, 147 assists, and 259 points. His goals, assists, and points records are fairly safe, but Owen Sillinger and Luca Del Bel Belluz are within 120 points of him. 

Tyler Motte - 2017

Tyler Motte was the first player to wear #64 for the Blue Jackets, although it wasn't for very long. 

Motte was traded to Columbus by Chicago with Artemi Panarin and the NY Islanders' 6th-round pick (previously acquired; Columbus selected Jonathan Davidsson) in the 2017 NHL Draft for Brandon Saad, Anton Forsberg, and Columbus' 5th-round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft, June 23, 2017.

Motte would go on to play in 31 games for the Blue Jackets, scoring 3 goals and 5 points, while averaging 9:56 per game of ice time. 

Later that season, Motte was traded to Vancouver by Columbus with Jussi Jokinen for Thomas Vanek on February 26, 2018.

The St. Clair, Michigan native went on to play four more seasons in Vancouver. After playing with the Detroit Red Wings in 24-25, He played in the AHL for Charlotte in 25-26. Motte currently sits without a contract after playing nine NHL seasons. 

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Josh Hart fires back at Draymond Green after $100 million dig at Knicks, Jalen Brunson

An image collage containing 3 images, Image 1 shows Josh Hart speaking at Fanatics Fest, Image 2 shows Draymond Green gives his take on Jalen Brunson's financial sacrifice in 2024 for the Knicks, Image 3 shows Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart of the New York Knicks pose for a photo after they throw out the first pitch of the game before the start of the first inning against the against the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium, Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Josh Hart is encouraging Draymond Green to worry about his own financial spreadsheet.

In a recent episode of the “Club 520 Podcast” the Warriors forward commented on what he believed was a poor decision by Jalen Brunson for taking less to sign an extension with the Knicks in 2024, saying the team “can afford it” — and also referenced Hart’s bottom line.

“It’s the New York Knicks, bro. They can afford it. You ain’t gotta take no discount,” Green said.

“My situation is different because Steph (Curry) making 270 (million), Klay (Thompson) making 180. Alright, something gotta give,” Green said. “Cool, I could take less. But he the top guy! By the way, let Josh Hart or somebody else take less. They in my role, let one of them take less, but guess what? Steph Curry ain’t taking a penny less and neither did Klay Thompson. If this gonna work, somebody do. Well guess what I ain’t really expecting them to take less. I don’t know what he doing, but I’m happy for him.”

The questioning of Brunson’s sacrifice and mentioning that Hart should have been the one to take less didn’t sit right with the Knicks’ wing.

“We got to normalize grown men not counting other peoples pockets,” he wrote on X in a quote tweet of a video of Green’s comments.

Josh Hart at Fanatics Fest BACKGRID

Brunson’s pay cut — in which he did not sign a max extension but can recoup most of the money he left on the table in a future extension — allowed the Knicks to build up a competitive group and depth around him, which eventually led to the’s franchise first title since 1973 this past season.

Yet, Green, who recently signed a $27.7 million deal with the Warriors, argued that could have happened regardless.

He pointed to Warriors star Curry and ex-Golden State sharpshooter Thompson playing under max contracts while still winning four NBA titles between 2015-22.

Draymond Green gives his take on Jalen Brunson’s financial sacrifice in 2024 for the Knicks. X @cptdankkk

From a financial perspective, Brunson’s decision was surprising at the time.

If Brunson had waited until the following summer for free agency, he could have signed a five-year deal worth about $270 million.

Yet, he agreed to a four-year, $156.5 million contract extension.

Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart of the New York Knicks pose for a photo after they throw out the first pitch of the game before the start of the first inning against the against the Chicago White Sox at Yankee Stadium, Wednesday, June 17, 2026. Corey Sipkin for the NY POST

The money left on the table enabled the Knicks to make deals for Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges that fit within the salary cap, and those two helped the Knicks beat the Spurs in the NBA Finals.

Giants put Casey Schmitt on 10-day injured list with torn meniscus in left knee

SAN FRANCISCO — San Francisco Giants infielder Casey Schmitt was placed on the 10-day injured list with a torn meniscus in his left knee.

Schmitt, the Giants’ breakout star this season, was injured while trying to stop after taking a sharp turn around first base during a 3-0 win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

Initial tests were inconclusive, but Schmitt underwent an MRI that revealed the extent of the injury. No timetable has been set for his return.

“Hasn’t been dictated yet,” Giants manager Tony Vitello said. “He’s back there doing what he can. Still in the early stages of knowing exactly what will happen, but obviously he’s going to miss a good chunk of time.”

The 27-year-old Schmitt has been one of San Francisco’s best players this season while filling several positions in the infield and outfield. He is batting .271 with a .784 OPS and has already set career highs for homers (21), RBIs (55), runs (47) and hits (105).

In a corresponding move, infielder Osleivis Basabe was called up from Triple-A Sacramento.

AJ Smith-Shawver is the Braves’ 27th man in Mets doubleheader

PITTSBURGH, PA - MAY 09: AJ Smith-Shawver #32 of the Atlanta Braves prior to the Friday evening MLB game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Atlanta Braves on May 9, 2025 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

It’s a nice enough day for baseball, even in New York City. So why not have a doubleheader, no?

The Braves returned RHP AJ Smith-Shawver from his rehabilitation assignment, reinstated him from the injured list, and appointed him as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader. AJ makes his first start since May 29th in Philadelphia. The Big Arm Smith-Shawver has had five rehab starts over 17 2/3 innings already. It’s not clear how many innings or pitches that he can provide today, or if Grant Holmes will throw multiple innings afterward. I know that it is expected to be mostly cloudy and 77 degrees at first pitch. So it appears that this game will be completed.

Making AJ the 27th man suggests that he will be optioned to Gwinnett after this game. His innings will be limited this season, but no one knows exactly what that means. It probably depends on his progress post-surgery. Let’s see AJ and the Braves get through today and then we can worry about it afterward.

Diamondbacks News

PITTSBURGH, PA - JULY 28: Brandon Pfaadt (32) of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a pitch during the MLB game against the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 28, 2026 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Diamondbacks News

Diamondbacks Avoid Crushing Defeat with 12th Inning Win
Brandon Pfaadt gutted out seven innings of shutout ball and left the game with a 6-0 lead. If one blinked at that point, they would never have known it as the game was suddenly 7-7 going into extra innings.

Diamondbacks Escape with Win and More Paul Sewald Concerns
At least he is stumbling before the trade deadline, giving the front office time to evaluate their options for a potential replacement.

Is Paul Sewald on Closer Hot Seat?
After last night’s outing and combined with other issues creeping in since the break, the answer is a firm yes. Although, there’s a strong argument to be made he has been on that hot seat since he arrived in the desert.

Diamondbacks Fans React to Paul Sewald Meltdown
Paul Sewald has already greatly exceeded expectations this season. Nonetheless, as a closer, his recent run of form is anything but acceptable and the cosmos is making sure everyone knows about it.

Red Sox Rebuked Arizona’s Enquiries
The deal the Red Sox made with the Nationals is exactly the sort Mike Hazen was looking to make with the Red Sox. The problem for Arizona is that they didn’t have the trade chips necessary to even start the conversation. Sadly, this could become a common theme at the upcoming deadline.

Other Baseball News

Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates
Doubling down on the notion that the Diamondbacks will have difficulty finding suitable trade partners, they have no player listed in the top-50 or in the other players to watch, which has representatives from 23 other clubs.

12 Teams Desperate to Make a Deadline Move
If enough of these moves happen, Arizona might find the market more friendly for them as well.

Shane Bieber Walks Six in Two-Thirds of an Inning
As the trade deadline looms near, Shane Bieber just dropped the worst outing of his career.

Mets vs. Braves Game 1: Lineups, broadcast info, and open thread, 7/29/26

Jul 9, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Sean Manaea (59) pitches against the Kansas City Royals during the third inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Mets lineup

A.J. Ewing – CF
Francisco Lindor – SS
Bo Bichette – 3B
Carson Benge – RF
Jared Young – 1B
Jorge Polanco – DH
Tyrone Taylor – LF
Brett Baty – 2B
Francisco Alvarez – C

SP: Sean Manaea – LHP

Braves lineup

Ronald Acuna – RF
Drake Baldwin – DH
Matt Olson – 1B
Ozzie Albies – 2B
Michael Harris – CF
Mauricio Dubon – SS
Austin Riley – 3B
Eli White – LF
Joey Bart – C

SP: AJ Smith-Shawver – RHP

Broadcast info

First pitch: 1:10 PM ET
TV: SNY
Radio: Audacy Mets Radio WHSQ 880AM, Audacy App, 92.3 HD2

MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Wednesday, July 29

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We're halfway through the week! Let's keep it rolling with tonight's MLB moneyline predictions for every game on today's slate. 

See what teams need to be on your MLB picks on Wednesday, July 29!

MLB moneyline picks for July 29

MatchupPick
PhilliesPhillies
vs
MarlinsMarlins
Marlins
+163
DiamondbacksDiamondbacks
vs
PiratesPirates
Diamondbacks
+122
Blue JaysBlue Jays
vs
NationalsNationals
Nationals
+108
OriolesOrioles
vs
TigersTigers
Orioles
+160
BravesBraves
vs
MetsMets
Mets
+144
BrewersBrewers
vs
GiantsGiants
Brewers
-117
RockiesRockies
vs
PadresPadres
Rockies
+135
RangersRangers
vs
RaysRays
Rays
-133
GuardiansGuardians
vs
RedsReds
Guardians
-127
YankeesYankees
vs
White SoxWhite Sox
Yankees
-135
RoyalsRoyals
vs
TwinsTwins
Royals
+174
CubsCubs
vs
CardinalsCardinals
Cardinals
+100
AstrosAstros
vs
AngelsAngels
Astros
-127
Red SoxRed Sox
vs
AthleticsAthletics
Athletics
+141
MarinersMariners
vs
DodgersDodgers
Dodgers
-147

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for July 29

Phillies vs Marlins: Marlins (+163)

Marlins win probability: 38%

Both Jesus Luzardo and Ryan Gusto have been dealing over their last few starts. At the same time, neither offense has done much at the plate, with both clubs posting a wRC+ below 100 over their last 12 games.

I can't justify laying $1.67 with the Philadelphia Phillies just because Luzardo is on the mound. Instead, I'll take a shot on the Fighting Fish to pull off the upset in this spot.

Diamondbacks vs Pirates: Diamondbacks (+122)

Diamondbacks win probability: 45%

Sure, last night's 15-run offensive explosion was a thrill ride for both sides, but I'm still not buying into this Pittsburgh Pirates offense. Over their last six games, Pittsburgh owns just a 67 wRC+, .260 wOBA, and .093 ISO. Meanwhile, Arizona has been one of the hottest lineups in baseball during that stretch, posting a 144 wRC+, .382 wOBA, and .199 ISO.

Eduardo Rodriguez hasn't exactly been dominant this season, but I'll gladly back the more dangerous and productive offense.

Blue Jays vs Nationals: Nationals (+108)

Nationals win probability: 48%

Yeah, I'll gladly take the hottest offense in baseball as a home underdog simply because Trey Yesavage is on the mound for the Toronto Blue Jays. Never mind the fact that Toronto has posted a wRC+ below 100 for more than a month, while carrying a barrel rate below 7% and a hard hit rate below 35% over its last 21 games. But sure, make Washington the dog because Zack Littell is starting.

Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals have been scorching hot at the plate, posting a 158 wRC+, .919 OPS, .256 ISO, and a 40% hard hit rate over that same 21-game stretch. I'm more than happy to back the hotter lineup at plus money.

Orioles vs Tigers: Orioles (+160)

Orioles win probability: 38%

"But Tarik Skubal is on the mound?"

Okay... and who's scoring runs for the Detroit Tigers? Over their last 12 games, the Tigers own just an 89 wRC+, .294 wOBA, and .665 OPS. That's not exactly an offense I'm looking to lay -160 with.

On the other side, Trevor Rogers has been outstanding over his last five starts, posting a 1.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and allowing just a 5.88% barrel rate. Pair that with a Baltimore Orioles offense that's been heating up over its last 21 games, and I think this line is giving Skubal a little too much respect.

I'm not laying -160 simply because Skubal's on the mound. Give me the hotter offense behind another lefty who's been dealing.

Braves vs Mets: Mets (+144)

Mets win probability: 41%

Today marks A.J. Smith-Shawver's first start of the season for the Atlanta Braves. In 2025, he went 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He opens his campaign against a New York Mets lineup that has been swinging it well over the last 21 games, making for a difficult season debut for the 23-year-old.

On the other side, Sean Manaea gets the ball, and he's been about what you'd expect in 2026, not great. That said, the veteran left-hander has pitched better at home, where his strikeout rate gets a nice bump. Atlanta has also been striking out at a higher clip lately, which could play into Manaea's strengths.

Once again, I'll side with the underdog. Give me the Mets.

Brewers vs Giants: Brewers (-117)

Brewers win probability: 54%

I think we're getting an incredible price on the Milwaukee Brewers at +117 tonight. Some people will look at Shane Drohan's ERA over his last few starts and immediately run the other way, but the underlying metrics tell a much different story.

Over his last five starts, Drohan owns a 4.20 ERA but a 3.00 xERA. Zoom in even further, and over his last three starts he has a 5.00 ERA paired with an outstanding 2.55 xERA. He's also limiting walks and missing bats at a high rate during that stretch, which makes me believe positive regression is coming.

On the other side, Logan Webb is still an ace, but the San Francisco Giants offense has been far too inconsistent for me to trust. I'll gladly take the better, more complete team at plus money to get the job done on the road.

Rockies vs Padres: Rockies (+135)

Rockies win probability: 42%

There's no better opportunity for the Colorado Rockies offense to get back on track than against San Diego Padres right-hander Griffin Canning. Canning has been a fade machine, posting a 6.05 ERA and 1.55 WHIP, while allowing a 40% hard-hit rate and an 11.67% barrel rate over his last five starts.

Even with Colorado's offense stuck in a cold stretch, I'll continue looking for ways to fade Canning. He's simply been too hittable all season, and this feels like another spot where he gets knocked around.

Give me yet another underdog. Go Rockies.

Rangers vs Rays: Rays (-133)

Rays win probability: 57%

I have to side with the Tampa Bay Rays. MacKenzie Gore is a very fastball-heavy, strikeout-oriented left-hander, and that's not the type of profile I want backing against a Tampa Bay lineup that consistently puts the ball in play. While his expected metrics suggest he deserves better results, I don't think this is the matchup where that positive regression shows up.

Ian Seymour hasn't exactly been sharp lately, which is the biggest concern with this play. Even so, Gore's recent struggles and the matchup against this contact-heavy Rays lineup have me leaning toward Tampa Bay.

Give me the Rays to get it done.

Guardians vs Reds: Guardians (-127)

Guardians win probability: 56%

I think Joey Cantillo has a big night on the mound. Sure, the surface numbers aren't pretty, with a 6.59 ERA and 1.98 WHIP over his last three outings, but there's more to the story. During that stretch, he's posted a strikeout rate close to 30%, and now he gets one of the most swing-and-miss-happy lineups in baseball.

Over the Cincinnati Reds' last 60 at-bats against left-handed pitching, six hitters own a strikeout rate above 21.7%, five are at 26.7% or higher, and three are north of 30%. This feels like a spot where Cantillo can rack up the punchouts.

On the other side, Brady Singer owns a 4.86 xERA at home this season, giving Cleveland a solid opportunity to scratch across enough runs to back its starter. I think the Reds struggle at the plate tonight, and the Cleveland Guardians find a way to come out on top.

Yankees vs White Sox: Yankees (-135)

Yankees win probability: 57%

I think the Chicago White Sox slump continues tonight as they draw New York Yankees rookie Cam Schlittler, who has been one of the most dominant arms in baseball all season.

On the other side, Davis Martin hasn't been sharp lately, posting a 6.14 ERA, 4.84 xERA, and 1.36 WHIP over his last three starts. That's a tough profile to bring into a matchup against a Yankees lineup that's more than capable of taking advantage.

I think the Yankees keep rolling and pick up another win.

Royals vs Twins: Royals (+174)

Royals win probability: 36%

Joe Ryan deserves to be a -178 favorite? I don't see it. Over his last five starts, he owns a 6.55 ERA, and it's been even worse lately with an 8.18 ERA and 6.05 xERA across his last three outings. I'll happily take +174 with the Kansas City Royals.

Neither offense has been anything to write home about, but the Twins have actually been worse. Over their last 12 games, Minnesota owns just an 85 wRC+, .293 wOBA, and .657 OPS.

At this price, I'll take the underdog every time. Give me the Royals.

Cubs vs Cardinals: Cardinals (+100)

Cardinals win probability: 50%

With the Chicago Cubs coming off a 10-run outburst against the St. Louis Cardinals last night, I like St. Louis to bounce back in this one against left-hander Matthew Boyd.

Historically, I don't love backing a team the day after a massive offensive explosion. Regression tends to show up, and this feels like a good spot for the Cardinals to respond. They've been stuck in a cold stretch at the plate, but I'm betting they find a way to snap out of it tonight.

Give me the Cardinals to secure a much-needed win.

Astros vs Angels: Astros (-127)

Astros win probability: 56%

Grayson Rodriguez. Is that enough? No?!

The Los Angeles Angels right-hander has been an absolute fade at home this season, posting a 10.58 ERA and 2.07 WHIP, while allowing a 47% hard-hit rate and 12.64% barrel rate. Pair that with an Angels offense that's gone cold, producing just a 93 wRC+, .302 wOBA, and .665 OPS over its last 12 games, and it's tough to make a case for L.A.

Meanwhile, the Houston Astros have been one of the hottest teams in baseball for weeks. It would genuinely surprise me if Rodriguez is the one who cools them off. Give me Houston.

Red Sox vs Athletics: Athletics (+141)

Athletics win probability: 42%

Jacob Lopez has looked outstanding over his last three starts, posting a 1.64 ERA, 2.65 xERA, and an excellent 0.82 WHIP. On the other side, Patrick Sandoval has been solid for Boston as well, recording a 3.21 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over his last five starts.

Neither offense has been swinging the bats particularly well lately, which makes this feel like a low-scoring, tightly contested game. At that point, I'd much rather take the plus money with the Athletics than lay $1.44 with the Boston Red Sox.

Give me the value on Oakland.

Mariners vs Dodgers: Dodgers (-147)

Dodgers win probability: 60%

Seattle Mariners right-hander Emerson Hancock has been dealing over his last five starts, while Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Eric Lauer has had his share of ups and downs.

Even so, I can't bring myself to back a Seattle offense that's posted just an 86 wRC+, .286 wOBA, .651 OPS, and .119 ISO over its last six games. The Dodgers have been the far better offense over the last month, and I trust that lineup much more in this matchup.

I'll happily roll with the Monstars from L.A. tonight.

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Curtis Mead could join the list of Red Sox one-game wonders

BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - JULY 12: Jonathan Lucroy #12 of the Boston Red Sox warms up before an intrasquad game during Summer Workouts at Fenway Park on July 12, 2020 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) | Getty Images

With Curtis Mead hitting the IL with a potentially season-ending broken wrist, he’s joining a small group of hitters who played only a single game for the Boston Red Sox. Granted, Mead is expected to return for the 2027 season (if not later this year, possibly). But with Marcelo Mayer, Franklin Arias, and other trade options all available this winter, plus a looming lockout, it’s always possible this is it for Mead and future plans send him to another city. 39 position players are on the one-game wonder list for the Red Sox. The below isn’t a complete list, but here are some highlights.

2026

Amazingly, Mead isn’t even the first one-game player of the 2026 season for the Red Sox. That would be be Brett Harris. Remember him? Acquired from the Athletics back on July 1. He had a very memorable 0-2 game. He might yet play in another, but for now, he’s on the list.

2020

He was a two-time All-Star. He was a catcher and first baseman. He hit 108 home runs in his career. He’s Jonathan Lucroy! Lucroy finished fourth in NL MVP voting back in 2014 but by the time he arrived on the Red Sox for his one game he was a shell of that player.

2018

Tony Renda received a World Series ring for his one game of work. A 27-year-old, he appeared in only one game and didn’t even get a plate appearance. But he did score a run. The rest of his career was 32 games with the Reds in 2016.

2010

Do you remember Angel Sánchez? He spent time with the Royals, Red Sox, Astros, and White Sox between 2006 and 2013. He actually pulled off being a one-game wonder twice: once with each color Sox.

2006

Another catcher, Corky Miller appeared for Boston in one game against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The starting pitcher for the Sox that day? Jason Johnson. He went 0-4 with a strikeout.

2004

One of the many guys on the roster during the World Series year, Earl Snyder went 1-4. He also appeared for Cleveland in 2002 for 18 games. He signed with Tampa just long enough to have Baseball Reference use that picture for his profile.

1999

Steve Lomasney was born in Melrose and drafted out of Peabody Veterans Memorial High School in 1995 (5th round), a local kid. Also in that round? Doug Mientkiewicz. Lomasney’s one game with the Red Sox — the final game of the 1999 season — was the only MLB game he would ever play. He’s nearly a real life Moonlight Graham, though he got to the plate twice, striking out both times.

1981

After 1999 we have to go all the way to 1981 for the next guy: John Lickert, who played one game on September 18, 1981 against the Yankees. He came in to catch the ninth inning replacing a pinch hitter. Jerry Remy played that day too.

1972

Vic Correll (another catcher) got his major league start as a one-off. He’d go on to play 409 games with the Braves and Reds. Correll would go 2-4 with a run and an RBI!

1952

Hal Bevan played in 1 game in 1952 for Boston, 8 for the Philadelphia A’s, 3 for the Royals in 1955, and 3 more for the Reds in 1961.

1920

Ray Grimes would go 1-4 with a walk before playing 147 games for the Cubs the following year. He had 432 more games after starting his career in Boston.

1901

The first ever to do it for Boston (the Americans at the time), Jack Slattery was a catcher and first baseman from Boston. Born in 1878 he’d go 1-3 with a walk and an RBI. The Americans roster that day against the Milwaukee Brewers featured Hall of Famer Jimmy Collins and, of course, was played at the Huntington Avenue Grounds before Fenway Park was even a dream.

The 76ers got LeBron James. What will their offense actually look like?

A hypothetical: Joel Embiid plucks the board off the glass. What happens next?

He quickly turns and flings a pass ahead to LeBron James, who has already started bolting down the right flank on the break.

James may be 41, but he remains strong and powerful, so he glides past the first line of defense. But when help crashes in on him, James skips the ball across the floor to Tyrese Maxey.

Maxey pump fakes, but the defense closes in on him, too, so he waits for Embiid to catch up and settle at the top of the key. Maxey tosses Embiid the ball before slashing immediately to the paint on a give-and-go.

Embiid returns to Maxey, who is met at the basket by a rim protector, so Maxey contorts in mid-air, zipping a pass to Jaylen Brown near the right baseline for a corner 3.

For these new Philadelphia 76ers, now with Brown and James in the fold, their offensive portfolio has just expanded significantly. After Philadelphia was swept in the conference semifinals by the eventual NBA champion Knicks, it became clear the roster needed aggressive reshaping to contend with the NBA’s best.

Now, with Embiid, Maxey, James, Brown and second-year guard VJ Edgecombe, the 76ers suddenly have a starting five that rises to the top tier of the Eastern Conference.

All that said, what will their offense actually look like? And who will handle the ball?

Realistically, the 76ers won’t need to have one primary ball-handler, given that each of Maxey, James, Brown and (to a lesser extent) Edgecombe can initiate offense. The reality is the Sixers should have a much more fluid offense with multiple ball-handlers, because when teams boast different players with the ability to create, it leads to tremendous offensive versatility.

Primary ball-handling duties, however, should fall to James and Maxey.

At this point in his career, soon to begin his record 24th season in the NBA, the thing James does best is distribute. In fact, some of the more awkward moments on the floor last season with the Lakers were when Los Angeles opted to have Luka Dončić dominate the ball.

James wields exceptional court vision and anticipation and has an encyclopedic archive of sets and offensive actions. It may take some time for him to assimilate, but his ball-handling should unlock easier offense for everyone. It’s the best natural fit for him.

Over the past couple of seasons, out of necessity, Maxey had been miscast somewhat as a shoot-first point guard. Philadelphia contended with several injuries, and substandard roster management left the team devoid of a true play-making distributor at point guard. Maxey filled in, and starred in the role, leading the team in assists the past three seasons.

Yet, while Maxey can handle and create, he’s most naturally a three-level scoring guard who excels off the ball, particularly on backdoor cuts and give-and-gos.

Now with James and Brown (though mostly James), there won’t be as much of a burden on Maxey to be the sole initiator on offense.

The other thing that’s safe to expect from these new-look Sixers: they’ll destabilize defenses in transition and will turn defense into offense.

Last season, the top three players in the NBA in converted transition field goals were Maxey (171), Brown (167) and James (164).  

The league leaders in total fastbreak points were Maxey (382) and James (343); with 253, Brown ranked 10th.

Pairing all three together suddenly gives Philadelphia immense adaptability with how it attacks teams in transition.

And while flexibility and fluid shot creation should rule the day in coach Nick Nurse’s offense, players will still have to buy in and adapt their roles to make it work.

The player who’ll need to tweak his game most is Brown. Last season, Brown’s best in his career, he ranked third in the NBA in usage (35.1), which measures the rate of a team’s plays that a specific player completes when on the court.

Much of that was because Jayson Tatum was sidelined most of the year with his Achilles tendon recovery, though Brown has plenty of experience playing with another high-usage star.

Los Angeles Lakers forward Lebron James (23) controls the ball against Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey during the first quarter at Xfinity Mobile Arena on Dec. 7, 2025.

Still, Embiid (33.6; sixth) and Maxey (28.6; 22nd) also were high-usage players last season. Brown will have to keep finding ways to move without the ball, cut to the basket and find soft gaps in defenses for perimeter shots. Where Brown struggled somewhat was turnovers (3.6 per game) and bouts of inefficiency. Playing alongside James and Maxey, however, Brown won’t need to create for himself anymore; he can let the ball find him.

This, to be sure, is a good problem to have. Teams can never have too many playmakers on the court, and Philadelphia now boasts a starting lineup that averaged a combined 27 assists per game.

Expect the ball to move around freely. Expect a dramatic improvement from last year’s offensive rating (114.3; 16th). Philadelphia’s defense, however, might need some work.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The 76ers got LeBron James. What will their offense actually look like?

2026 Battery Power Braves Midseason Top 30 Prospects: 18-13

VENICE, FLORIDA - MARCH 16, 2025: Luis Guanipa #72 of the Atlanta Braves bats during the fifth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Detroit Tigers at CoolToday Park on March 16, 2025 in Venice, Florida. (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

18. Ethan Bagwell – RHP

How he got to the Braves: 2024 6th round pick (#191 overall)

In a farm system full of intriguing young arms, Bagwell continues to fly under the radar despite putting up excellent numbers to begin his career.

Last season, Bagwell made a total of 10 starts with Augusta after dealing with an injury that sidelined him for a majority of the first half of the year. In those starts, he tossed 50 innings of 2.88 ERA ball while holding opponents to a .198 average. While the baseline numbers were solid, Bagwell’s strikeout numbers left something to be desired as he only managed 30 strikeouts in those 50 frames.

In 2026, however, Bagwell has seen his strikeout rate jump while also keeping his impressive walk rate in check as well.

Bagwell made 13 starts for Augusta before being promoted to Rome, where he made his first high-A start on July 1 in which he tossed six scoreless innings, striking out six and walking one in the process.

In 17 starts between Augusta and Rome, Bagwell is currently sporting a 2.72 ERA to go along with an FIP of 3.45. His strikeout rate is up to 24.7 percent, while his walk rate has climbed but is still at a manageable 7.3% on the year.

Overall, Bagwell has had great success, primarily with his fastball which has solid late life to it and works well, especially up in the zone. Bagwell currently carries a chase rate of 34.71 percent — which places him in the 89th percentile amongst all minor league arms.

As for the rest of this season, Bagwell will likely remain with Rome to conclude the 2026 campaign. He will most likely open up 2027 with Columbus — assuming the rest of the season continues on the current trajectory — with his sights set on Gwinnett or even the big league club later on in the season.

17. Isaiah Drake – OF

How he got to the Braves: 2023 5th round pick (#162 overall)

Isaiah Drake has faced an up-and-down path to becoming one of the system’s top prospects, but has gained momentum with two successive seasons of offensive success thanks to his ability to adapt his game to the professional level. Coming in as a young-for-his-class prep pick in the 2023 MLB draft Drake was a highly-touted player, but one who came with immense risk and talent that was expected to tap into. Drake has the athletic prowess to be a player who can hit for average to above-average power, but came into professional ball as a slap hitter and has struggled at times to shed that moniker. Drake has spent the last three seasons overhauling his approach and his swing and it has led to improved results, including a career-high 12 home runs in only 68 games this season. Drake’s been limited due to injury and hasn’t played since late June, but was on the path to continue his upward trajectory thanks to the improvements in his power output. During his approach and swing transition Drake suffered through a stretch of awful baseball in which he still wasn’t hitting for power and was striking out 35% of the time in A-ball, but this did not last long. Still, these early troubles soured many on Drake and he has spent the last two seasons rebuilding the diminished hype. He cut his strikeouts down to 22% in 2025 while improving his power output, and even with his ballooning home runs totals has managed a 25.6% strikeout rate in High-A this season. He is still young for the level and hitting at an above average clip, and though his hit tool is still his biggest question Drake has shown the ability to impact the game at all levels and has displayed an aptitude for learning and adjusting.

Drake’s calling card on the field is his speed, and it leads to great results on both sides of the ball. He is a problem on the basepaths and stole 46 bases at a 78% clip in 2025. He is a clear center fielder with the potential to be above average at the position, though he has played all around the outfield and displayed great instincts and route running. His swing changes have made all of the difference for him on the offensive side of the ball. He shortened his path to the ball and is doing a better job of keeping his front side closed, and instead of shooting line drives and ground balls the other way he has improved his pull rates and his fly ball rates. He is a bit aggressive on breaking balls out of the zone and does chase and strikeout too often, though he is still working to improve what was a far more aggressive and detrimental approach a couple of seasons ago. Drake is not likely to reach a superstar ceiling, but as a pure athlete he is one of the best in the entire system and the sky is the limit for him. He is slowly but surely closing the holes in his game that have limited him in the past and seems to be on the path to getting to the big leagues at a normal pace. He has the chance to be a do-it-all outfielder who fits as a regular in a big league lineup, though there is a best case scenario that sees him as an all-star type player.

16. Owen Carey – OF

How he got to the Braves: 2024 15th round pick (#461 overall)

While Eric Hartman is garnering most of the attention among the loaded Rome outfield — and rightfully so, given how historic his season has been thus far — Carey has more than held his own in high-A.

Carey made his system debut in 2025, playing in 117 games with Augusta, posting a slash line of .258/.330/.345 to go along with four homers and 63 RBI. He also flashed his speed, swiping 17 bases in that span as well.

In 2026, Carey had a brief stint with the FCL squad before jumping straight up to high-A Rome, where he has spent the bulk of his season. Across 183 at-bats with the Emperors, Carey has continued to demonstrate an above-average feel for the strike zone, while also seeing his gap-to-gap power increase as well.

In 48 games, which admittedly is a smaller sample size comparatively speaking, Carey has posted a line of .268/.333/.459. He has also hit six homers and driven in 34 runs as well.

Carey will most likely never be more than a 10-15 homer type of guy, but his decision-making when it comes to balls and strikes could lend itself to a touch more power on occasion.

Currently, Carey is carrying a Z-swing % — which calculates how often a batter swings at pitches in the strike zone — of 77.48 percent, which places him in the elite 95th percentile in the MiLB. It’s that type of swing decisions and judgement at the plate that should allow Carey to develop into at least an average bat with the potential for a little bit of pop as well.

As for the rest of this season, it’s highly likely that Carey will remain with Rome to finish out the season with his sights set on Columbus for 2027. The Braves will likely take it slower with Carey to make sure he isn’t rushed and they don’t ruin his sense of discipline at the plate by pushing him along too quickly.

15. Luke Sinnard – RHP

How he got to the Braves: 2024 3rd round pick (#99 overall)

Standing at a mammoth 6’7” and weighing over 250 pounds, Luke Sinnard is every bit imposing on the mound as you can imagine. He was drafted as a surprisingly polished pitcher out of the University of Indiana with an intriguing pitch mix. He burst onto the scene in 2025 with seven overwhelming starts for the Augusta GreenJackets where he had a 0.92 ERA before he was promoted to Rome to finish out the season. Luke was then sent to the Arizona Fall League, seemingly to get more innings as he missed some time because of injury. All he did was have one of the lowest ERA’s amongst in the league and created a lot of buzz heading into the offseason.

2026 hasn’t treated Luke great as he has missed a lot of time due to injury abdominal strain during Spring Training, and then again in June. On the season he’s made a total of seven starts, including a rehab start, and has shoved – a 2.16 ERA, .193 batting average against, 0.92 WHIP, with a 11.88 K/9, and 2.16 BB/9 rate. He gets it done by leveraging a five pitch mix that he uses surprisingly equally. He has a four-seam fastball that sits between 93-95 MPH, a two-seam fastball that’s between 92-94, a very tight slider with -.4” horizontal break and 6” vertical break, curveball with very good depth, and a low spinning splitter. He’s capable of throwing all of them in the zone, which gives him considerable upside. The only question remains – can he withstand a full season? So far across two seasons he has compiled a total of 97.1 innings so with his recent return from the injured list hopefully he can finally put the injuries behind him.

14. Carter Beck – OF

How he got to the Braves: 2026 PPI pick (#26 overall)

To say Carter Beck was one of, if not the biggest, surprises of the first round of the MLB Draft earlier this month would not be an overreaction.

A centerfielder with the Indiana State Sycamores, Beck posted an OPS of 1.083 across 57 games for the Sycamores, which competes in the Missouri Valley Conference (MVC). Beck tallied 16 homers, 17 doubles and drove in 59 runs while also swiping an even dozen bases in his final season for Indiana State.

Beck was taken as sort of an under slot type of guy in order for the Braves to have money left to sign some high-potential prep arms later in the draft.

However, that’s not to say Beck can’t live up to his high draft selection, as he possesses an incredibly tantalizing toolset that could catapult him up this list once he gets in some professional reps.

The biggest question mark for Beck is: how will he fare against professional pitching, which is a significant step above what he faced in the MVC? He has the tools to jump up our rankings, but until we see how he performs as a pro, there are too many question marks to rank him higher at the moment.

Defensively, Beck has the potential to stay in centerfield, as he has the athleticism to stick and is very gritty and not afraid to try and make the tough plays.

It will be interesting to see where Beck starts his pro career once he’s assigned. He will most likely begin with Augusta with a chance to fast-track to Rome given his age (21) and college experience, if all goes according to plan.

13. Luis Guanipa – OF

How he got to the Braves: 2023 International Free Agent

Luis Guanipa hits the mark in every way except one, and the glaring flaw in his profile is the one that has kept him for being one of the best prospects in all of baseball. After being the Braves biggest international signee in 2023 there was a ton of pressure on Guanipa to perform, and in his time with the DSL and the Complex League Braves he lived up to the billing. When he got to A-ball as a 19-year old it came with a fair amount of buzz, but things quickly fell off for him after that. Two issues arose. One — Guanipa couldn’t stay healthy. He played only 35 games in Augusta in 2025, and his performance was up-and-down at best with his power production not nearly meeting expectations. Then there was his approach, which has been a sore spot in his profile since that he hasn’t done a whole lot to address. 2026 has fortunately been a major resurgence for Guanipa. His power is through the roof and he is finally pulling the ball in the air, showing some of the elite traits that made him a borderline top 100 talent a couple of seasons ago. He has elite contact ability and can adjust to reach any pitch in the strike zone, and overall his OPS has jumped from 97 in 2025 to 117 this season.

Guanipa’s contact ability is impressive. He has elite bat speed and does a great job of adjusting to hit pitches throughout the zone, and it is rare for him to be beat anywhere in the strike zone. He can get to fastballs up and breaking balls away, and has shown the ability to take pitches out away from him and smoke them the opposite way for singles and doubles. If a pitcher makes a mistake and comes in on Guanipa he can get his bat around as well as anyone, and will turn and mash balls down the left field line for home runs. After having seven home runs in his previous three seasons Guanipa has 11 in 88 games, and there is even more raw power for him to tap into with him hitting 25 at his peak not being out of the question. Injuries previously limited his impact on the basepaths, but in 2026 he is an incredible 36-for-41 on stolen base attempts. In the field he has the potential to be a plus center fielder and always finds a way to get to balls in the gap. There are two offensive problems that limit Guanipa from being a sure-fire top prospect in this system. He has done a ton of work to his swing since joining the professional ranks, but his tendency to fly open and swing off balance limits his impact on pitches away from his body. It also makes him susceptible to swinging over pitches and hitting ground balls, though he has mitigated that in 2026. He still needs to be hitting the ball in the air more to make the most of his power, but the biggest issue is that he just can’t lay off of anything outside of the zone. Guanipa is an outlier free-swinger and it is noticeably negatively impacting his game. He is a good enough contact hitter to avoid ballooning his strikeout totals, but he is often making weak contact on bad pitches and does not draw enough walks to hold a high on base percentage. He has an extremely high swing rate on pitches in the strike zone and goes into few deep counts, with many of the bad chases in his profile coming in favorable spots or with a couple of strikes to spare. Guanipa has the ceiling to be an impact player, but the swing decisions he makes are hard to work around and will keep him from even being an MLB-quality starter if they don’t improve. Guanipa has top 100 pure talent and is certainly trending upwards, but without a major reset to his approach he is always going to leave some of that talent on the table.

Anthony Edwards Was the Answer the Whole Time

SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS - MAY 12: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves warms up before Game Five of the Second Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center on May 12, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Slitz/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Minnesota Timberwolves fans spent most of July waiting for somebody to walk through the door and fix things.

We refreshed the timeline. We ran forensic analysis on Instagram emoji choices We talked ourselves into believing that a 41-year-old, four-time MVP would chose to spend the last act of his career in Minneapolis. For a few weeks there, it felt real. Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball were making recruiting calls. Hope, that dangerous little houseguest, put its feet up on the coffee table.

Then one Shams Charania tweet ended the Minnesota dream. LeBron James signed with the Philadelphia 76ers. And just like that, the whole elaborate fantasy was over.

It stung. Then it stopped stinging. And somewhere in the quiet afterward, a thing clicked that should have been obvious from the jump: the answer was never going to be a signing.

The answer already plays here.

The Reflex

You have to understand where the instinct comes from, because it isn’t stupidity. It’s scar tissue.

Minnesota’s entire emotional operating system was built around departure. Kevin Garnett had to leave for Boston to get his ring. He was the best player this franchise ever had, and his banner went up in a different building. Kevin Love wanted out and got out. Karl-Anthony Towns, the guy we watched grow up, ended up winning his title somewhere else too. For thirty-seven years, the lesson Wolves fans absorbed was that greatness is something that departs via moving truck. So of course we chased LeBron. Chasing LeBron was the reflex, the deep, conditioned belief that the last piece of the puzzle has to come from outside.

Which is exactly why we almost missed the actual story sitting in plain sight.

Look Who Was Working the Phones

Here’s the detail that reframes the entire summer: the recruitment wasn’t the front office cold-calling a legend and hoping. According to Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic, Anthony Edwards was directly involved, on the phone with LeBron himself, doing the pitch.

And the way he did it tells you everything. As the story went, Ant told James, joking (but only barely), that if he didn’t make a decision soon, he’d tear his head off. When LeBron laughed and asked what happened if he signed somewhere else, Edwards said he’d tear his head off on the court instead. Read that back slowly. That is not a young player nervously auditioning for a savior. That is an alpha dog casually informing a top-two-ever talent that he’d be welcome as help. Help on a team that already has an owner, and the owner is number five. It’s Rocky calling out Apollo, except this Rocky is convinced he already owns the belt.

That’s the leap nobody circled on the calendar. Not a stat line. A posture. Edwards spent this offseason recruiting instead of being recruited, and the tone was less “please come save us” and more “come get on, or get run over.” The kid who used to eat Popeyes and giggle his way through media availability is now the guy telling future Hall of Famers where the bar is.

The Numbers Behind the Swagger

The swagger would be insufferable if it weren’t earned. It’s earned.

Edwards put up 28.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists a night while shooting 39.9 percent from three. He’s entering his seventh season. Seven years is the window where the truly special ones stop being “a star with a ceiling” and simply become the ceiling. The new practice photos have people dusting off the Jordan comparisons again, and sure, that’s the offseason content machine doing its thing, but you don’t get compared to that guy for being ordinary in July. You get compared to him because there’s something in the film that keeps daring you to say it out loud.

The point isn’t that Edwards is already the best player alive. The point is that the Timberwolves’ path forward was never a free-agent addition sitting on top of him. It was him.

Let’s Not Pretend

Now, let’s not pretend the doubt is unreasonable, because it isn’t.

One man does not win a title alone. The graveyard of great scorers who never got a ring could fill a mid-size arena. The Wolves fell to the eventual Western Conference champion Spurs in six games this spring. It was the first time since 2023 that Minnesota didn’t reach the conference finals, which is its own gut-punch after two straight trips. The LaMelo Ball trade is a genuine gamble, a bet that could go sideways. Shipping out Naz Reid and Julius Randle left a power forward hole you could park a Zamboni in. And the money is terrifying: $215.8 million already committed for next season, with Edwards ($48.9M), Ball ($40.8M), and Rudy Gobert ($36.5M) eating most of it. There is no cavalry coming, because the credit card is maxed and the statement’s already past due.

All of that is true. Every word.

And every word of it is why the answer has to be Ant.

The Case

When you can’t buy the last piece, you have to grow it. That’s not cope. That’s the blueprint the teams that actually broke through all used. Dallas didn’t sign its way to a title; it waited on Dirk Nowitzki to turn into the most unguardable version of himself and then handed him the keys. Milwaukee didn’t import a finisher on top of Giannis; it let Giannis become the finisher. The franchises that finally cashed in weren’t the ones who found a savior on the open market. They were the ones whose homegrown superstar decided, in year six or seven, that “good enough to contend” was an insult.

The LaMelo trade fits that theory, it doesn’t contradict it. You don’t deal for a high-usage, ball-dominant guard to replace your best player. You do it to weaponize his gravity, to give Edwards a co-star whose job is to make the defense pick a poison. The gamble only pays off if Ant is exactly what we think he is. Everything Minnesota did this summer, the trade included, is a wager placed on number five. Which means the whole offseason quietly answered its own question. The Wolves already told you who they think the answer is. They just did it with a transaction sheet instead of a press release.

LeBron in Philadelphia doesn’t shrink Minnesota’s ceiling. It just removes the last excuse. There’s no veteran messiah to defer to now, no “once we add one more guy” asterisk to hide behind. It’s Ant’s team, Ant’s number, Ant’s leap or Ant’s disappointment.

He got married this summer, got the fresh cut, showed up to camp dressed like he had a board meeting to run. Take the hint. This is a man arranging his life around the idea that this is the year the leap becomes the point.

So Here We Are

The savior isn’t driving up I-94. He never was. He’s already in the building. He’s the one who was working the phones, the one telling four-time MVPs where the line is. The Timberwolves spent a summer looking outside for the thing they’ve had all along, and the search ending is the best thing that could’ve happened, because now there’s nowhere left to look but at him.

The answer isn’t coming. It’s already here.

Now he just has to go be it.

‘People are loving it’: Formula One chief Domenicali hits back at critics of regulations

  • Chief executive says fans don’t care about technology

  • Season may finish in Europe due to war in Middle East

Stefano Domenicali has issued a stout rebuttal to critics of Formula One’s current regulations, claiming most fans are enjoying the sport more than ever and are unconcerned by driver complaints.

The Formula One chief executive also confirmed that this season finale would be staged in Europe if the last two grands prix, in Qatar and Abu Dhabi, are called off due to the Middle East war.

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Sizing Up The Atlantic: How Do The Senators Compare To The Buffalo Sabres?

In our Atlantic Division offseason series, we've already compared the Senators to the:

Toronto Maple Leafs
Montreal Canadiens
Tampa Bay Lightning

Next up are the Buffalo Sabres, another Atlantic rival that had some big losses this summer. Like Ottawa a year earlier, the Sabres finally broke their playoff drought this past season, although Buffalo's was the longest in NHL history at 14 years.

Not only did they break the drought, they won the division. But not by much.

Steve Warne and Gregg Kennedy discuss who might fill out the top six in Ottawa this fall.

Senators Offseason Summary

The Senators' offseason turned on a dime when captain Brady Tkachuk requested a trade and was eventually sent to Florida for the ninth and 25th picks in the 2026 draft, a 2027 second-rounder and a 2029 first-round pick.

GM Steve Staios then flipped the ninth pick to San Jose for William Eklund and prospects Kasper Halttunen and Brandon Svoboda.

Ottawa also acquired Andre Burakovsky and goalie Samuel Ersson, while re-signing Claude Giroux, Nick Cousins, Jordan Spence and Leevi Merilainen.

The biggest question remains whether Eklund and Burakovsky can replace enough of Tkachuk's offence.

Let's compare that with Buffalo's offseason.

Sabres Trades: Subtractions

Like Ottawa, Buffalo's biggest offseason departure was one of its most important forwards.

Alex Tuch, the Sabres' third-leading scorer, was dealt to Washington in a sign-and-trade after agreeing to an eight-year, $84 million extension. Buffalo received bottom-six forward David Kämpf and a 2027 third-round pick.

The Sabres also traded defenseman Bowen Byram and rugged forward Jordan Greenway to Chicago for the fourth and 45th picks in the 2026 NHL Draft and 6-foot-8 defenseman Louis Crevier.

Also gone is Michael Kesselring to San Jose as part of a deal to move up from 27th to 20th in the first round.

Goaltender Devon Levi, the former Carleton Place Canadian, was sent to Edmonton along with a 2028 seventh-round pick for a 2028 third-rounder.

All told, that's a decent amount of NHL talent heading out the door. And they weren't particularly well replaced...

Sabres Additions

The Sabres flipped the 45th pick and prospect Anton Wahlberg to Anaheim for 22-year-old defenseman Olen Zellweger.

Zellweger should immediately help replace some of the mobility and offence lost with Byram, while Crevier gives Buffalo another young right-shot defenseman.

Free agency was relatively quiet. Buffalo re-signed Zellweger, and also brought back veteran Conor Sheary and Sens UFA defenseman Dennis Gilbert.

The Sabres also signed Zach Benson, Peyton Krebs, amd Beck Malenstyn to long term extensions.

Buffalo also built for the future, using the fourth overall pick acquired from Chicago to select defenseman Daxon Rudolph and the No. 20 pick to select centre Ilia Morozov.

Who Had The Better Offseason?

Both teams lost an important winger. Ottawa lost Tkachuk while Buffalo lost Tuch.

But the Sabres also bid farewell to Byram, Greenway, Kesselring, and Levi. 

There's plenty to like about Buffalo's return. Zellweger is already an NHL player with considerable upside, while the fourth overall pick could eventually become a major piece.

But much of that return is geared toward the future. The Sens' response was a little more focused on the present.

Staios turned the ninth pick into Eklund, a 23-year-old established NHL forward who immediately steps into the top six. Burakovsky provides another offensive option and Ersson gives Ottawa a new partner for Linus Ullmark. And 21-year-old winger Kasper Halttunen, acquired with Eklund, is a compelling prospect who might be ready for an NHL look later in the season.

The Senators also retained Giroux, Cousins and Spence, keeping several important pieces of last year's team in place.

Offseason edge: Senators

Who's Better Right Now?

Buffalo finished ahead of Ottawa last season and still has plenty of talent.

Tage Thompson remains as big and elite as ever, while Josh Norris, Zach Benson, Jack Quinn, Josh Doan, Jason Zucker, and Ryan McLeod fill out a strong group of forwards.

Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, both former first overall picks, remain the foundation of an excellent blue line.

Ottawa counters with Tim Stützle, Drake Batherson, Dylan Cozens, Shane Pinto, Giroux and newcomers Eklund and Burakovsky up front, with Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson and Spence on defence and Ullmark in goal.

Also keep in mind that Ottawa's goaltending, injury luck and off-ice drama would be hard-pressed to be worse than they were last season, and the Senators still made the playoffs with 99 points.

Buffalo earned the right to enter this comparison with an advantage after finishing ahead of Ottawa last season.

But after what happened this summer, that advantage may have disappeared.

Better team right now? The Senators. But not by much.

By Steve Warne
The Hockey News

This article first appeared at The Hockey News Ottawa. For full Senators coverage, check out one of The Hockey News headlines below:
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Report: Senators Players Grew Tired Of The Noise Around Brady Tkachuk, Including His PodcastReport: Senators Players Grew Tired Of The Noise Around Brady Tkachuk, Including His PodcastAccording to Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman, Sens teammates grew weary of the noise surrounding their former captain.

2 Penguins Potential Defenseman Trade Targets

The Pittsburgh Penguins have made multiple moves this off-season, but they should be open to making more. After losing Ryan Shea in free agency to the Edmonton Oilers and trading Parker Wotherspoon to the Vegas Golden Knights, it is clear that the Penguins could use another left-shot defenseman.

Because of this, let's look at two potential defenseman trade targets for the Penguins to consider.

Alexander Nikishin, Carolina Hurricanes 

With Alexander Nikishin being a 24-year-old defenseman with great upside, he is exactly the kind of defenseman who a retooling team like the Penguins should make a serious push for. He just had a strong rookie season with the Hurricanes, posting 11 goals, 33 points, and a plus-18 rating in 81 games. The potential for him to become a high-impact defenseman in the NHL is there, so he is a blueliner the Penguins should consider making a serious push for. 

Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs 

If the Penguins want to add another veteran defenseman, Maple Leafs blueliner Morgan Rielly could be worth taking a gamble on. The 32-year-old defenseman has been the subject of trade rumors throughout this off-season and would be a nice addition to the Penguins' left side if acquired. However, he has a full no-movement clause, so he would need to approve any potential trade. In 78 games last season for Toronto, he posted 11 goals and 36 points.