The first two contests in Houston have produced a split, with the Astros taking Monday’s opener and the White Sox bouncing back for a 5-1 victory on Tuesday. Now, with two games left in the series, both clubs have an opportunity to gain ground in a race that carries major implications for American League playoff seeding and a potential first-round bye.
Before tonight’s game, the White Sox returned Davis Martin from his injury rehab assignment, reinstated him from the 15-day injured list and optioned Tanner McDougal to Triple-A Charlotte. Martin goes directly back into the rotation and makes his first major league start since Aug. 13.
The 29-year-old righthander is 9-6 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.33 WHIP this season. Martin was outstanding during April and May but has struggled considerably since, culminating in three particularly ugly starts in August. He was placed on the injured list Aug. 14 with a blister on his right middle finger.
Martin made one rehab start for the Knights on Aug. 27 and could hardly have been better, tossing five scoreless innings while allowing only one hit and one walk with five strikeouts. Let’s hope that version of Martin followed the team to Houston.
The Baseball Savant numbers illustrate why Martin’s season has been such a mixed bag. His overall pitching run value sits in the 46th percentile, but his expected statistics are much less encouraging. He ranks in the 24th percentile in expected ERA, 11th in expected batting average and 28th in expected slugging percentage. He also sits in just the eighth percentile in hard-hit rate and the 16th in average exit velocity, meaning hitters have made plenty of loud contact against him.
The good news is that Martin has a couple of pitches capable of keeping Houston’s bats under control. His offspeed run value ranks in the 86th percentile, driven by a changeup that also sits in the 86th percentile. His sinker has been another strong offering, ranking in the 77th percentile in run value.
Martin will need both pitches working, particularly against the left-handed bats scattered throughout Houston’s lineup. The Astros have Yordan Alvarez, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Trammell and LaMonte Wade Jr. batting from the left side, giving Martin plenty of opportunities to use the changeup to keep hitters off balance. The sinker can help him generate weak contact and keep the ball on the ground.
The slider is another story. Its run value ranks in only the eighth percentile, while Martin’s breaking-ball run value is in the 13th. If he leaves sliders over the plate, a Houston lineup featuring Alvarez, Isaac Paredes and Jose Altuve can make him pay quickly. Martin does a respectable job of inducing chase and limiting walks, but he does not miss a ton of bats. His success will depend on staying ahead, leaning on the changeup and sinker and avoiding the poorly located breaking pitches that have led to so much hard contact.
Alvarez enters tonight in a rare cold spell, slashing .158/.346/.316 over the past seven days. Of course, that does not make him any less capable of changing the game with one swing, especially if Martin gives him something hittable. Nick Allen has been Houston’s hottest batter during that span, producing a .455/.500/.545 line and 1.045 OPS, but thankfully he is not in tonight’s starting lineup.
Hayden Wesneski will make his seventh start of the season for Houston. The righthander has spent much of the past two years on the injured list and underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2025. He joined the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade with the Cubs in December 2024.
Through six starts, Wesneski owns a 3.86 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. The veteran earned the win in his most recent outing against the Yankees, surrendering one run on three hits and two walks while striking out six.
Wesneski’s Savant profile offers the White Sox a fairly obvious plan of attack: Do not help him. His chase rate ranks near the very top of baseball, but his strikeout rate is much closer to the bottom half of the league. His arsenal is built around getting hitters to expand the zone, with his sweeper and changeup grading as his best secondary pitches.
Chicago’s hitters need to recognize those pitches early and force Wesneski to come over the plate. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate both rank in the bottom third of the league, suggesting hitters can do damage when they make contact against pitches in the zone. His fastball velocity is also below average, so the Good Guys should be ready to attack hittable four-seamers rather than chasing sweepers off the plate or changeups below the zone.
That sounds simple enough, but Chicago’s offense has not exactly been firing on all cylinders. Colson Montgomery and Andrew Benintendi have been the best South Side hitters over the past seven days, while Chase Meidroth and Miguel Vargas have also been seeing the ball reasonably well. Those are the only four players in tonight’s lineup hitting better than .200 during that span. Everyone else has been firmly aboard the struggle bus.
Sam Antonacci gets the start in the leadoff spot, followed by Munetaka Murakami and Vargas. Benintendi bats cleanup as the designated hitter, while Braden Montgomery returns to the lineup in right field. Colson and Meidroth follow, with Tristan Peters and Drew Romo rounding out the order.
With so many hitters searching for their timing, patience could be the key tonight. If the Sox can resist Wesneski’s chase pitches and make him work in the strike zone, there should be opportunities to generate hard contact. If they spend the evening fishing for sweepers and changeups, it could be a very long night for the offense and the fans.
Chicago’s lineup:
Houston’s lineup:
Let’s win two in a row!
First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. CDT. The game will be televised on CHSN and can be heard on ESPN 1000.
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