On Wednesday, The Athletic released its annual NHL player tiers list, taking the top-150 players in the league and putting them into separate tiers to indicate what level they are on. The tiers include MVP level, franchise player, All-Star, star, and support players.
The list is compiled by taking into account player net ratings, the writer rankings, and a panel of 20 people within the NHL.
From a Pittsburgh Penguins perspective, this year’s list re-confirms what is the biggest concern for the team in the long-term future.
They just do not have enough young elite talent. Or any at the moment.
While this Penguins team has a lot of organizational depth at certain positions, specifically at forward and in goal, and while the prospect pool is dramatically better than it was even one or two years ago, a lot of the players that make up that depth have a limited ceiling. They might have high floors. But they have low ceilings.
There are a lot of potential NHL players and NHL regulars there. There are some good players and potentially really good players. There are a lot of potential wild-cards that could go in a lot of different directions. But there are simply not enough proven impact players or high-ceiling prospects that they can consider a focal point for a serious Stanley Cup contending team in the future.
At least not right now.
The Penguins have three players on the list, but they are all deep into their 30s.
The players on the list are…
- Center, and captain, Sidney Crosby who fits into Tier 2 as a franchise-level player.
- Defenseman Erik Karlsson who is listed in Tier 3 as an All-Star level player.
- Forward Evgeni Malkin who is listed in Tier 5 as a support player.
In the short-term, having two players within the top-three tiers is fine, and could be a good foundation, especially when you take into account the position each plays (center and defense) and how they can be cornerstone players down the middle where championship-level teams are built.
But again, these guys are in their late 30s. You might be able to count on them in the short-term, but you can not count on them for the long-term.
Crosby is going to be 39 this season, and while he is coming off another big year, the assessment of his play and ranking is more about his status as an NHL legend, and not really the player he currently is.
Our approach to Crosby’s placement, as he’s continued to strengthen his case for Hockey Rushmore through his late 30s, has been to start conservatively and wait for the panel to argue him up the list. For the first time, that’s not how it went down.
That’s not meant as any sort of knock on the legend, either. “He willed that team into the playoffs,” an exec said. “They had no business being there.” The expectation is that, even at 39, he will continue to produce like an in-his-prime franchise player — a necessity for the Penguins if they’re to make another shocking postseason push.
Are age-related cracks are starting to come through? Sure. Pittsburgh was break-even in expected goals in Crosby’s minutes in 2025-26, which doesn’t bode well for his defensive play, and offensively, his dip in effectiveness on the rush continued. The bigger picture, though, cannot be lost. This is a once-in-a-generation player showcasing once-in-a-lifetime longevity.
Honestly, I don’t think there is anything unfair there. I will quibble with the assessment the he “willed” them into the playoffs on his own, mostly because they did one hell of a job staying in the fight when he was sidelined for a significant portion of the season. A lot of players contributed to that playoff appearance.
He can still score and produce points. But he is not the consistent game-changing force he was at his peak and in his prime. Sometimes that extra level of dominance is there. Sometimes it is not. There are legitimate concerns and cracks in the defensive game. He’s still Sidney Crosby, but he’s no longer SIDNEY CROSBY.
The assessment on Karlsson is actually a little more encouraging even though he is two-tiers below Crosby.
“Had an unreal year,” a scout said. “Drives me nuts.”
Welcome to the Erik Karlsson Experience, now starting its 18th season and headed for the Hockey Hall of Fame. Karlsson bounced back to an almost incredible degree for Pittsburgh in 2025-26, helping to fuel an unexpected run to the postseason and finding his way back on to a handful of Norris Trophy ballots. Karlsson was 10th among defensemen in points per 60 and, even more crucially, Pittsburgh won his minutes 73-53 after outright losing them in 2024-25.
“He can go either way, but what he did last season was special,” a veteran executive said. “There’s just not a lot of defenders on your list that can put together the sort of season that he managed.”
There is a strong and convincing argument to be made that Karlsson was the Penguins’ best and most important player in 2025-26, and you do not have to look much further than the fact he took home the team’s MVP honors. It would not surprise me if he came back this season and played at that level again, and was again the team’s best player. He is going to be 36 years old, but I still saw a player that has a lot of gas in the tank this past season.
The biggest problem, aside from the age, is that he is in the final year of his contract and is not guaranteed to finish the season as a member of the Penguins, let alone be a member of the team next season.
He can still give you a great player right now, but for how much longer?
Malkin, in Tier 5, probably has the least optimistic outlook.
Which forward born in the mid-1980s led Pittsburgh in all-situations points per 60 last season? That would be Malkin (3.72), who was rejuvenated by a move to the wing at 39.
The future Hall of Famer might no longer be a dominant down-the-middle force, but he’s still producing plenty of offense, period, let alone for an old guy. Is a repeat performance a dodgy proposition? Sure — but slotting him in as a highly productive second-line wing seems reasonable and fair.
Again, I think that is fair. Also, like Karlsson, he is playing out one more year on his current contract and could also be out of the picture by next season due to retirement.
So where are the Penguins going to get some players that fit into the higher tiers?
Goalie prospect Sergei Murashov might be the prospect in the system that has the highest ceiling, and the one that could eventually play his way into something like a Tier 3 level if (very big if) everything goes right for him. But I also feel like he is the top prospect in the organization that is least likely to reach their ceiling just based on the nature of the position he plays and the unpredictably that comes with goalies, and especially young goalies.
He is one of those wild-cards.
I could see Ben Kindel being a Tier 5 guy, and maybe even a Tier 4 guy, at some point in his career. Maybe not this season or next season, but eventually. A two-way center with great hockey sense and a good shot can be an important part of a contending team.
Maybe if Egor Chinakhov shows his second-half performance in Pittsburgh after the trade was not a fluke, he can play his way into Tier 5, or perhaps even Tier 4, with another big season or two. He scored at a 35-goal pace after the trade, and could potentially be a Pavel Dorofeyev type player if he can build on that and consistently show it over a full season and beyond (Dorofeyev, for the record, is Tier 5 this season).
Those are a lot of ifs and maybes. Ifs and maybes do not always go perfectly.
If you are looking at potential outside additions, everybody has been dreaming about Jason Robertson, and given the salary cap space the Penguins will have at their disposal this offseason you can continue to dream about that if you want. It might not be likely. But it is something you can hope for. He is in the Tier 2 level, though the anonymous quotes from scouts and coaches are kind of baffling. Even so, he would change the math for them if they could somehow get him.
Elias Pettersson as a potential trade option still makes the list in Tier 5, even if everybody seems to agree he has not done anything to earn that status in two years. The potential for a bounce-back given what he has shown he is capable of is what keeps him on there.
Then there is simply the potential for draft picks. The Penguins have a ton of draft pick capital over the next three years, and the chance to add more, and while none of them are truly elite picks at the moment, sometimes one of the best ways to give yourself a chance at finding a cornerstone player is to just give yourself as many picks as possible. Or maybe you can move up in a year. Or maybe this season represents a step backwards and draft lottery luck smiles upon you.
Whatever the case may be, and whether it is internal improvement, a free agent signing, a blockbuster trade, or some draft luck, it is pretty clear what the Penguins biggest need is and the one thing that is going to limit their ceiling in the near future until they find a way to fix it.
