The Bullpen is not a problem long-term
I think most of you know this, but the bullpen is a 2026 specific problem. That isn’t to say that the Cardinals shouldn’t try to improve it in 2027, that isn’t to say they shouldn’t make changes. But bullpen doesn’t really work like other positions. Third base and centerfield are bad this season and thus they are a problem that needs to be figured out long-term. Bullpen is exclusively a short-term position, even when it’s good.
And there are hidden gems. I’m a believer in second half Gordon Graceffo, who has been an entirely different pitcher from the first half. He is on a speed run to have a reasonable strikeout rate by the end of the season by striking out every other hitter whenever he can. If 2nd half Graceffo is 2027 Graceffo, he is a true weapon. Luis Gastelum got off to a slow start and has had a few too many homerable pitches, but he is striking out over 30% of hitters with a reasonable walk rate. If he pitches anywhere close to his 3.03 xFIP next season, he’s another weapon.
Cade Winquest did not pitch well today at all, but it was his 6th career game. He struck out 34.8% of hitters in the minors and had an average walk rate. He also had an over 50% GB rate. The Cardinals need two of those things to translate and he’s a good reliever. (The Ks, the walks, or the groundballs). And of course, the starting pitchers. Maybe it’s Matthew Liberatore, maybe it’s Cooper Hjerpe, maybe it’s Tekoah Roby, maybe it’s Ixan Henderson, I mean I could go on. Whether it’s for innings concerns, or a true move to the bullpen, there will be starting caliber pitchers whose stuff will play up in the bullpen next season and in seasons beyond.
Bullpens are random. Consider that a good thing for the Cardinals and their future. A move or two and this could be a good bullpen next year and I’m not taking crazy pills because that’s just how baseball works.
George Soriano’s Struggles
There has been an emerging narrative that I’ve noticed that George Soriano is struggling because he is reaching career high in games pitched. He has, after all, not had a very good second half, most recently helping to blow a six-run lead to the Giants yesterday. It’s one of the easiest narratives in baseball, guy struggles because he is worn out.
I don’t buy it. I’m sorry I don’t. I think fans desperately want to believe this to be the case, because they think he’s a better pitcher than he is. I acknowledge that not all innings are created equally. I acknowledge that he has appeared in a career high amount of games pitched. I even acknowledge that sometimes high leverage innings can stress out your arm more than low leverage innings. It’s just too easy though. Let’s look at his history.
He was first moved to relief in the middle of the 2022 season. He appeared in 8 games, started 6 of them, at the AA level, but only threw 29 innings. He got promoted to AAA and pitched 47 innings in 32 games. He threw 76 innings in 40 games pitched in 2023 overall. The next season, he became a true multi-inning reliever. He pitched 17 games and threw 25.1 innings in AAA, and in 26 games at the MLB level, he threw 52 innings. Overall, he pitched in 44 games and threw 77.1 IP.
Moving onto to last season, he threw in 29 games at AAA, throwing 42.2 IP. In his MLB time, he pitched in 24 games and threw 36.2 IP. Combined, that makes it 53 games and 78.4 innings pitched. I don’t know guys, he’s not pitching in as many games, but this is about as heavy a workload as you’re going to get from a reliever in 2026. I know they weren’t high leverage, but that is a LOT of innings.
On top of that, his 1st half performance wasn’t really supported by advanced stats. He struck out 21% of batters and walked 9.6% of them, which was “good” for a 4.44 xFIP. He didn’t really allow homers (3.90 FIP) and had a .225 BABIP. Things have obviously gone in the opposite direction in the 2nd half. Before yesterday’s game, he had a 4.03 xFIP and struck out 26.7% of batters (more walks too) in the 2nd half. But he had a .346 BABIP and 6.52 FIP because the home run luck dried up.
His season BABIP is still just .275 so one could argue he’s still getting lucky on balls in play during the season as a whole. He’s been unlucky on homers, but his career rate is 16.9% and his season rate is 14.9% so based on 179 career innings, he’s going to allow a few more homers to leave the park than expected. Too small a sample size of course, but perfectly in line with his career.
He has a career 4.51 xFIP, his ERA on the season is now 4.50. I just think this is who is guys. He’s just gotten to this place in a very strange way. I just find it difficult to buy into this narrative. You could not more perfectly design a reliever more “ready” to throw a lot of innings and in a lot of games than Soriano. It’s just easy to miss that because his stat page doesn’t show the minors unless you seek it out.
Also his struggles this year are easily explainable. He can’t get right-handed hitters out. In 2026, he has a been a true reverse splits guy. Left-handed hitters hit for a .263 wOBA and strike out 26.6% of the time with an 8.4% BB rate. Right-handed hitters hit for a .386 wOBA with a 19.2 K% and 14.4 BB%. That’s season stats. Also might I remind everyone: the first batter Soriano faced yesterday, he induced a weak groundball that’s an out for probably 90% of batters but Jonah Cox has 99 percentile sprint speed, at 30.1 feet per second. He had a .090 xBA. He suddenly does his job if someone slower is batting. Unfortunately, baseball is cruel.
The Stopgap for 3B is Here, it shouldn’t be for CF
The two weakest positions this season have been third base and centerfield, both from players initially seen as a potential long-term answer. The Cardinals should move on from Nolan Gorman, but in the meantime, I actually think Thomas Saggese and Blaze Jordan showed enough in 2026 to keep the spot open for them. Obviously, they’re both right-handed so this isn’t a platoon situation, but with Saggese’s ability to play other positions, and then Blaze occasionally platooning with Alec Burleson, there’s plenty of PAs for both.
And I say this not really believing either is the answer. But that’s okay because I think the answer is in the organization. I don’t know which specific player is, but I would be surprised if there’s not a long-term answer among Saggese, Jordan, Jesus Baez, Deniel Ortiz, and even Raniel Rodriguez maybe. I don’t necessarily think any one of them is a good bet at 3B specifically, but taken collectively, you got to like the odds.
Saggese should be a good defender at 3B, and projection-wise, he should have between a 90 and 100 wRC+. His minor league history suggests there may be more there offensively. He is 25 next season. He is the perfect stopgap option. But we aren’t even completely depending on him. Jordan is 24 next season. He had a 137 wRC+ in AAA and a .317 xwOBA and displayed better than expected defense. Do I buy the defense? No, but I’m intrigued to see more. He has earned more opportunities. These are great stopgap options.
However, I have no idea what to do with centerfield. I am fully out on Nathan Church being a starting centerfielder. Obviously, his offense has been disappointing. He is good at not swinging and missing. That is the extent of his positives as a hitter, at least how he’s played in 2026. Go to his Statcast page, it is bleak. Everything but K% and whiff% is blue. He is 3rd percentile in chase%, 8th percentile in average exit velo, 20th percentile in bat speed, 12th percentile in hard-hit%.
It’s hard to see that kind of profile and see a route to becoming a good hitter. If the Cardinals plan to go into next season with him as a starter, they need to have a serious talk with him about not chasing. Of all the stats, that is the only route for optimism. He was never this extreme and he did hit the ball hard, but Alec Burleson went through this. Just hammer that home. Wait for your pitch more. In the best version of how this could go, him selectively choosing better pitches to hit improves all his batted ball metrics.
But I’m not making him the starting CF if I’m in charge. Like I said, Burleson’s Statcast page was never this bleak so it feels like I’m hanging onto a lot more hope and wishful thinking to think Church will improve to that extent. He’s still on my team next year. I tell him he has to earn back a starting spot. Not chasing is the way to do it, if results follow, you will get your job back. Outfield is one of those positions where everyone gets hurt, so he will still play.
Of course, who the hell is starting if not Church? Certainly nobody in the organization. I don’t want to go the Victor Scott route again. It seems like the Cardinals have moved on anyway. I don’t think Joshua Baez can play CF. I can read War and Peace faster than it will take Chase Davis to adjust to a new level, so I don’t think he’s the answer to our 2027 problems. In the absolute best case scenario, I suspect Josiah Ragsdale is going to have Joshua Baez’s season next year. (They slow cook him and wait until August)
My main point is that I want to attempt to compete. I’m not asking to go all-in. I feel like Saggese/Jordan is an attempt to compete. Running it back with Church is a rebuild kind of move. Just give me somebody who has an okay chance to be good. It’s not like we’re swarming with outfielders in the near term, all the backups right now are literally infielders. In the offseason, I will probably look for an answer to this question.
