Category: Sports News

If the season ended today, Sal Stewart is the presumed National League Rookie of the Year. This bothers me. As you may be aware, I am a fan of the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals hired a new fellow by the name of JJ Wetherholt to play second base and bat leadoff for them this year. He has really done an excellent job this season. He has done such an excellent job, that if I run over to FanGraphs and look at the leaderboards, I see he has posted more WAR than any other National League rookie. The big problem with JJ’s Rookie of the Year case is that he has racked up value in a less flashy way than the Cincinnati slugger. While Stewart has been smacking home runs, Wetherholt has been getting on base and playing incredible defense.

Today I want to have some fun and look at some of Wetherholt’s defensive highlights this year through the lens of Outs Above Average (OAA). This metric is one of the primary inputs to FanGraphs’ WAR formula, but it can feel like a bit of a black box. My goal is not to convince you that WAR is perfect or tells the whole story of a player, but rather to connect some visuals to the underlying metrics upon which JJ has built his Rookie of the Year resume. 

While defensive statistics are arguably less accurate than offensive statistics, they are certainly more opaque. You can meander over to Wetherholt’s Baseball Savant profile and note that his OAA on the season is 22, which places him in the 100th percentile. That is pretty good! Here is the definition of OAA per the MLB glossary,

Outs Above Average for infielders takes the following factors into account.

• How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball (“the intercept point”).
• How much time he has to get there.
• How far he then is from the base the runner is heading to.
• On force plays, how fast the batter is, on average. 

The Statcast technology knows where players are positioned, so shifting and positioning do not artificially impact the metric. Statcast tags each ball with a probability of turning into an out. If a player converts a ball with a 93% chance of being an out, they would be awarded 0.07 OAA.

Alright, seems like a good statistic to me, but what does it look like to accrue an out above average? For outfielders, Baseball Savant has a lovely visualization tool. You can hover over a given play to see the catch probability and click directly to a video of the play. Well, it turns out, for infielders, this is not readily available. Fortunately, I found this Fangraphs article where Michael Rosen outlines a very manual workaround to finding play-specific OAA for infielders. 

Using this methodology, you can extract play-level data, including the batter handedness, the home park, the launch speed, and the month in which the play occurred. The problem is that there is no unique identifier, so you have to manually search for plays that match up with those high-level criteria. With these data points, I set out on a scavenger hunt to find a visual representation as to how Wetherholt has managed to accrue 22 OAA. 

Alright, drumroll please: JJ Wetherholt’s top defensive play of the year according to OAA.

According to Statcast, this play had a less than 1% probability of turning into an out, so Wetherholt received almost a full OAA. To my eye, this looks something closer to a 50/50 chance. The ball was not hit particularly hard (84 mph) and the runner, Lane Thomas, has 91st percentile sprint speed. Wetherholt makes the play look easier than it is with his excellent footwork and quick transfer, but I am still not sure if that looks like his best play of the year. 

Next, let’s take a look at a play that Statcast gave a 26% chance of turning into an out.

Wetherholt ranged 27 feet to his right and easily threw out a good runner in Ian Happ. I am already seeing a theme emerge. Wetherholt is making plays, particularly to his right, look too easy! For a point of comparison, here is Sal Stewart trying to complete a similar play.

Now, I know this ended in an error, so it looks worse, but both balls were hit at essentially the same exit velocity and with negative launch angles. Stewart only had to range 20 feet to his right and was clearly at the edge of his range. I know that no one is arguing that Stewart is a better defender than Wetherholt, but I think this comparison helps highlight how easy JJ can make a play look. 

Alright, depending on your view of the difficulty of these first two plays, you may be leaning towards OAA overrating defensive contributions. This eye test cuts both ways, though. This next play only credits JJ with 0.04 OAA.

Here, Wetherholt goes full extension to snag a 92 mph line drive and turn it into a double play. The runner on first, Alex Freeland, seems to agree with me as he is caught about 40 feet away from the bag before he realizes the error of his ways.

This play gave Wetherholt a mere 0.08 OAA.

Wetherholt had to range 18 feet and throw from his knees to get a solid runner in James Wood.

With a nice save from Burleson, Wetherholt converted this 96 mph rocket into an out, but was rewarded with just 0.13 OAA.

Let’s get Masyn Winn a quick cameo. This sweet double play start only gave JJ 0.15 OAA.

This ball was also scorched at 99 mph off the bat. Wetherholt had to range 19 feet to his left and make a spinning throw to start the turn.

Wetherholt isn’t typically allowed on Winn’s side of the field, but here he ranges to the shortstop side of the bag to collect another 0.18 OAA.

Finally is a nice look at Wetherholt coming in on a ball to pick up 0.5 OAA.

Jake Bauers is a slightly below-average runner, but Wetherholt had to go a long way, 51 feet, to get to this ball and make the play. 

Wetherholt has had his fair share of highlight plays this year, but it has been his incredible consistency that has allowed him to rack up one of the most valuable defensive seasons in baseball. 

Assuming you are bored with watching highlights and would prefer to look at an eye chart, here is a breakdown that illustrates the types of plays that are driving Wetherholt’s defensive value.

This table shows that Wetherholt has had 106 balls hit into his zone with a probability of an out between 0% and 25%. The average expected out was 2%. Wetherholt converted 3% of these plays into outs giving him one OAA on the most difficult opportunities. You can see that he has accrued most of his value by his consistency of performance on balls with a greater than 75% chance of turning into an out. 

Does this compilation of clips convince you that Outs Above Average and WAR are perfect statistics? Of course not! But hopefully it puts a little color behind the season that Wetherholt has put together. I remain convinced that he is the best rookie on the senior circuit. Wetherholt is at 4.4 WAR, with Stewart sitting at 2.6. The gap is even bigger over at Baseball Reference where Wetherholt leads Sal by 2.5 bWAR. 

Yes, I know Sal Stewart has put up a more impressive offensive season than Wetherholt. There is plenty that could be said about each hitter’s home ballpark and the value provided on the base paths, but this really comes down to defense. The argument against Wetherholt is that defensive statistics are more volatile and less precise than offensive statistics, so his WAR contributions can be mentally discounted. I agree with that conceptually as a tiebreaker, but come on. A 1.8 WAR gap is not a rounding error. That is the full season fWAR for Michael Busch! If Wetherholt can come back quickly from his injury, he could still have 15 games to pad his resume, but even if he doesn’t, he has earned the hardware. His defensive consistency and excellence may not be appreciated by Rookie of the Year voters, but it helps win ballgames, which is sort of the whole point.

We already had the 2027 regular season schedule announced in July, and on Friday the White Sox released the games that will lead into the regular season.

There aren’t many surprises, given the same 14 opponents. And we’ve got no game times or broadcast information yet. But nonetheless, here it is:

Everything starts earlier in 2027, which is somewhat terrifying to those of you who are accustomed to 30-odd Cactus League games and 162 in the regular season, because a lockout looms as soon as the White Sox wrap up the 2026 World Series title.

But that said, best-case scenario sees pitchers and catchers due in Glendale around February 6 and the full roster reporting date coming on the 10th. Actual action gets underway about 10 days from there, with a “road” matchup with the Dodgers at Camelback Ranch.

There are just two games against the Cubs this coming Cactus season, the first in Mesa on February 23, the second at Camelback on March 12. There is also just one split-squad day this spring season, coming on February 21 at the Guardians and hosting the Reds. The team has the customary two days off, likely some form of cut-down days, on successive Tuesdays: March 2 and March 9. The total of 30 games is arrived at with a blistering final run, with no days off between March 10 and the Cactus League finale, on March 21.

There are three days off from there, and the White Sox keep living out a suitcase for the first six games of the season, opening 2027 at Detroit and then heading to Kansas City to finish out the month.

We’ll replace or update this schedule post once MLB and the White Sox provide game times and broadcast information.

The Mets (64-77) continue their three-game series with the Giants (58-84) on Saturday at 4:10 p.m. on SNY.

Here's what to know about the game and how to watch...

Mets Notes

• Zach Thornton has pitched to a 2.93 ERA over his first 11 MLB starts
• With two home runs in last night's win, Francisco Alvarez is up to 15 for the season
• Mark Vientos has hits in three of four games since returning from the IL

Today's Lineups

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The Philadelphia Phillies (60%) will send Zack Wheeler to the mound as they look to snap out of a two-game losing skid.

He should give them the pitching advantage opposite of Martin Perez, whose 3.05 ERA does not at all align with a 28th percentile ranking in xERA.

That's one of the reasons I'm backing the home team with my Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.

Who will win Braves vs Phillies today: Phillies moneyline (61%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Zack Wheeler is in a sneaky-good spot to get back on track against the Atlanta Braves. They have quietly struggled against righties over the last month, sitting 25th in wOBA and 26th in xwOBA. 

I have higher expectations for the Philadelphia Phillies offense against Martin Perez. He continues to be a prime regression candidate, posting a 2.28 ERA the past 30 days despite a ballooning 4.99 xERA.

The Phillies have hit lefties well, and are 14-4 as favorites against a southpaw starter with an ERA above 3.00.

Play to 63%.

COVERS INTEL: The Braves are 25th in batting average on the road against righties the past month. It'll be difficult to get going against Wheeler, who's held opponents to a .198 average at home.

Braves vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54%)

Wheeler has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of 14 starts against teams outside the Top-10 in OBP against righties.

The Braves sit 14th on the season and 21st across the past 20 games, making this a spot where we should expect a quality start.

For his faults, Perez deserves credit for high-end barrel suppression. He’s in the 86th percentile on the year, and that will help him limit homers and quick-strike offense.

Both teams also have rested bullpens after their starters pitched six innings Friday on the back of off days on Thursday.

I’m buying to 56%. 

Braves vs Phillies home run prediction: Trea Turner (17%)

Trea Turner has a nice history against Perez, hitting .294 with an ISO just under .300.

He is also in excellent form facing Perez’ pitch mix. Turner’s average exit velocity is up nearly four miles per hour over the last 25 plate appearances, and his hard hit rate has soared to nearly 70% along the way.

He has fared especially well against changeups and sinkers, which are Perez’ two most-used pitches.

Braves vs Phillies weather

Temperatures in the low 80s are expected with winds blowing left-to-right. No real impact on scoring.

Braves vs Phillies odds

• Moneyline: Braves 41% | Phillies 60%
• Run line: Braves +1.5 (60%) | Phillies -1.5 (41%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Braves vs Phillies trend

The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.45 units, 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.

How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info

Braves vs Phillies latest injuries

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The Arizona Diamondbacks (50%) have enjoyed a ton of success with Brandon Pfaadt on the mound, winning 11 of 14 starts.

With the Houston Astros offense struggling to string together hits against right-handed pitching, I'm happy to back Arizona with my Diamondbacks vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks.

Who will win Diamondbacks vs Astros today: Arizona Diamondbacks (51%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Brandon Pfaadt’s recent dip in play is only natural when facing a gauntlet that includes the Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, and Phillies.

The Houston Astros do not belong in that conversation offensively. They rank dead last in wOBA vs. righties the past month, and their xwOBA is actually lower than the results they’ve garnered.

I have more faith in the Arizona Diamondbacks offense. They sit 16th in wOBA over the same span and are facing the inexperienced Ethan Pecko, who has not been able to keep runners off the bases (1.54 WHIP).

Back Arizona to 53%.

COVERS INTEL:Brandon Pfaadt ranks in the 91st percentile in walk rate, making opposing offenses earn everything they get.

Diamondbacks vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (51%)

The Diamondbacks are seeing righties well, ranking ninth in barrel rate over the past month. Pecko has given up a ton of quality contact (10.3% barrel rate, 51.3% hard-hit rate), and the Diamondbacks should take full advantage of that.

Pfaadt has given up five homers over his past three starts, and he ranks in the 44th percentile in barrel suppression this season.

Houston may not be stringing together hits right now, but only the Nationals have more homers against right-handed pitching at home. They have power to contribute.

Play the Over to 52%.

Diamondbacks vs Astros home run prediction: Nolan Arenado (15%)

Sinkers and fastballs account for nearly 65% of Pecko’s pitches against right-handed batters. That sets up favorably for Nolan Arenado, who possesses ISOs above .230 when facing each of those pitches.

We’re still dealing with small sample sizes with Pecko, but he ranks in the 5th percentile or worse in xwOBA, xSLG, and ISO. He is giving up a ton of good, hard contact, and Arenado is a good candidate to take advantage.

Diamondbacks vs Astros weather

This game will be played indoors.

Diamondbacks vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Diamondbacks 50% | Astros 51%
• Run line: Diamondbacks -1.5 (38%) | Astros +1.5 (63%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (49%) | Under 8.5 (52%)

Diamondbacks vs Astros trend

Arizona has hit the moneyline in 15 of the last 24 away games (+10.90 units, 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Astros.

How to watch Diamondbacks vs Astros and game info

Diamondbacks vs Astros latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Rays 7, Rangers 6

• A one run loss.
• Though it was a game that probably shouldn’t have been as close as it ended up being, that the Rangers were fortunate to be that close in.
• An underwhelming performance by Kumar Rocker, whose consistent inconsistency continues to be a hallmark of his season.
• Texas went with the ultra-rare double-opener, utilizing Trevor Williams for the first inning and Robby Ahlstrom for the second before turning to Rocker.
• Rocker inherited a 1-0 lead, then gave up a homer to the second batter he faced, resulting in his first career blown save.
• In his last appearance, Rocker needed 86 pitches to go just three innings. This time around, he didn’t walk anyone and struck out just three batters, resulting in much shorter plate appearances, on average, with the result being that he threw just 73 pitches to get through five innings.
• He gave up six runs on those five innings, though, so…
• We got to see three Rangers pitchers in the ninth inning, which is always fun. After Tyler Alexander, who had pitched the eighth inning, retired Taylor Walls to start the inning, Chase Silseth came in, faced three batters, and retired none of them, with one run scoring. Key trade deadline day acquisition Adam Macko was summoned to get the final two outs.
• Silseth’s misadventure turned a one run deficit into a two run deficit, which became relevant when the Rangers scored one run, but not two runs, in the bottom of the ninth.
• The one run was driven in by Elias Diaz, and a particularly amusing element of this game is that Diaz drove in five of the six runs the Rangers scored.
• Yes, that Elias Diaz.
• Diaz had turned a dull blowout into a close game with a grand slam in the seventh, making what had been a 6-1 game into a 6-5 game.
• This was the first grand slam of the year for the Rangers.
• It was also just the sixth extra base hit the Rangers have had with the bases loaded in 2026.
• It boosted the Rangers’ slash line on the season with the bases loaded to .225/.240/.304.
• The league as a whole, as a point of reference, is slashing .274/.313/.437 with the bases loaded.
• The Rangers, as a team, are slashing .243/.318/.399 this season. The league as a whole is slashing .244/.318/.400.
• If you’re wondering why the Rangers are 26th in the majors in runs scored per game despite having essentially a league-average slash line…well, the performance with the bases loaded isn’t the whole reason, but it certainly is a significant factor.
• The Rangers have scored 50 runs fewer than the average MLB team. Maybe I should go estimate how many more runs they’d have scored this year if they’d been just average in bases loaded situations.
• Anyway, Diaz’s ninth inning RBI came on a sacrifice fly. Jake Burger and Evan Carter drew walks to start the ninth, leading Skip Schumaker to send Nicky Lopez into the game as a pinch hitter for Cody Freeman to bunt the runners to second and third.
• The decision to bunt there was debatable, and maybe the Rangers should have just taken their chances with Freeman at the plate rather than give up an out to move the tying run to second base. Diaz and Justin Foscue were up behind Freeman, though, so its not like you’re super-enthused about the Rangers’ chances of walking it off regardless.
• I know the coterie of Nicky Lopez fans on LSB were excited to see him in the game, though. Its now been over two weeks since his last start, though this is his ninth appearance in that time. If you are tuning into games to watch Nicky Lopez, you probably don’t need to tune in until the later innings.
• Ezequiel Duran was responsible for the other Ranger run, on a home run, his 17th of the season. It was the first run of the game, and teased us into thinking the Rangers were going to win, what with their stellar record when scoring first.
• Texas, incidentally, was 1 for 2 with runners in scoring position in the game. Kind of amazing they scored six runs, given that.
• Corey Seager had a pair of hits, the only Ranger to record more than one hit.
• Jake Burger drew three walks to go along with his one hit, so that’s fun.
• Evan Carter had a hit and a walk. Good job, Evan.
• He also picked up an error that led to an unearned run, though, so, you know, mixed bag for Full Count Carter in this game.
• Trevor Williams hit 92.2 mph with his fastball. Robby Ahlstrom reached 94.3 mph with his fastball. Kumar Rocker touched 96.3 with his fastball, averaging 94.9 mph, and 96.2 mph, averaging 95.0 mph, with his sinker. Tyler Alexander maxed out at 92.6 mph with his fastball. Chase Silseth’s sinker hit 98.2 mph. Adam Macko’s fastball topped out at 95.5 mph.
• Elias Diaz had a 105.5 mph groundout to go with his 103.4 mph grand slam. Ezequiel Duran had a 104.7 mph groundout and a 104.2 mph home run.
• Anyway. Now to start a new winning streak.

Some Guardians fans took in two baseball games yesterday and saw two, joyous walk-off wins against the Tigers.

From Brayan Rocchio’s slam:

To Brayan Rocchio’s walk-off:

To Travis Bazzana’s game-tying two-run mash:

To Travis Bazzana’s walk-off:

To heroics all day from the bullpen including Erik Sabrowski, Daniel Espino and Hunter Gaddis all throwing two innings a-piece, it was a day to remember at Progressive Field. Let’s hope tonight is another one.

The Guardians are 9-2 against the Tigers this season. With Williams and Messick starting these last two games, need to find a way to make it 11-2.

Chase DeLauter left yesterday’s game with wrist pain. Stephen Vogt was typically optimistic he would avoid the IL. Same for Angel Martinez who left with a bruised shoulder after colliding with Rocchio.

Bench coach Tony Arnerich AGAIN called for a stupid bunt in Vogt’s absence (ejected for arguing with the home plate umpire about a pitch clock violation). Having Rocchio bunt period is dumb but with Bailey on second and the Tigers clearly playing the bunt, it was especially inane. I don’t like what I have seen of his strategic mind.

Around MLB:

The White Sox, Astros and Blue Jays won, the Twins, Rangers and Orioles lost. The Guardians are a game up on the Blue Jays (who have a very easy September schedule also) and 2.5 games behind the White Sox.

Chris Sale has needed to counter Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Brandon Pfaadt, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob Misiorowski in the last month. While the Braves haven’t beaten them all with Sale leading the way, the results have been terrific.

How about 67 strikeouts, 4 walks and 1 home run allowed in 52 innings pitched in the second half? He had a second half FIP of 0.88 coming into last night’s game. My back-of-the-envelope math says it is 1.23 right now. I checked back to 1974, which is far as I could check via Fangraphs. That is the lowest second-half FIP of any Braves starting pitcher in that time span. I mean, Greg Maddux was transcendent, but he can’t hang with a 67/4 walk-to-strikeout ratio (at least not very often). Though a 1.23 FIP is not the lowest in the second half for players with 20 innings pitched. Paul Assenmacher has a second half FIP of 0.78 in 1989. He somehow didn’t give up a dinger in that huge home run year.

So is Chris Sale having the best second half season in Braves history? The first player that I thought might have beaten it was John Smoltz in 1991. But I feel that his second half felt amazing because of how poor he was in the first half, and he helped lead the Braves to the World Series. If his run continues, I think it might be Sale’s honor to grab and maybe pick up another Cy Young in the process.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers lost to the Rays last night 7-6.

Evan Grant writes about the Rangers’ comeback that fell short and where it leaves them the playoff hunt

Kennedi Landry writes about the continued struggles of Kumar Rocker.

Corey Seager swings at a lot of first pitches and other teams are taking advantage.

Caden Scarborough has been shut down for the year with an elbow issue.

Grant has injury updates on several Rangers, including Nathan Eovaldi and Josh Jung.

He also has an update on Sebastian Walcott.

The Rangers released their 2027 spring training schedule, so there’s that.

And finally Skip Schumaker hisself is the latest guest on the DMN Rangers podcast.

That’s all for this morning. The Rangers take on the Rays again tonight at 5:05 with Jacob deGrom on the hill for Texas.

Have a great weekend!

In the preview to this game that I posted Friday afternoon, I wrote:

Personally, if I were making the decisions for the Cubs, I would not have Shōta Imanaga make this start.

Well. Couldn’t be happier to have been wrong about that. Imanaga had one of his best outings of the 2026 season, allowing just three hits and one run and NO home runs in six strong innings, and the Cubs defeated the Marlins 6-1. This was accomplished after the usually long-haired Japanese left-hander got a short haircut. Cause and effect? Probably not, but whatever it takes, it’s very important for the Chicago Cubs to have good Shōta back. Hope he sticks around through October.

The Cubs scored first in this one. In the top of the second, Alex Bregman led off with a single, but got picked off. That was followed by singles by Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner, putting runners on first and third. Pedro Ramirez then hit into a force play, scoring Happ [VIDEO].

I’d probably be more unhappy with that pickoff if the Cubs hadn’t gone on to win the game rather easily.

Imanaga and Marlins starter Janson Junk matched zeroes for three more innings until the Cubs broke the game open in the sixth. Junk was replaced by Jack Ralston, who walked Pete Crow-Armstrong. PCA immediately took off for second and recorded his 33rd steal of the year. One out later, Michael Busch and Bregman walked to load the bases.

One more free pass, to Happ, scored PCA to make it 2-0 [VIDEO].

With the bases still loaded, Hoerner singled to make it 3-0 [VIDEO].

Ramirez followed with this sac fly and the Cubs led by four [VIDEO].

Imanaga set down the Marlins in order in the bottom of the sixth — but only because of this spectacular catch by PCA [VIDEO].

I don’t think any other center fielder in MLB makes that catch. PCA continues to do things every single day that amaze me. This freeze frame from the catch tells the story:

In the top of the seventh, he led off with a double, advanced to third on a fly ball and scored on a wild pitch that made it 5-0.

I thought Imanaga would be removed after six, but Craig Counsell let him stay in to face the left-handed hitting Griffin Conine, who singled. Then Imanaga was taken out after 94 pitches. Here’s more on Imanaga’s evening [VIDEO].

Aaron Civale replaced Imanaga and allowed a double that sent Conine to third, where he scored on a ground out to make it 5-1.

That’s where the game stayed until the top of the ninth, when Michael Busch homered, his 18th [VIDEO].

That ball was absolutely demolished [VIDEO].

It would be really good for Busch — and, of course, the team — if he could show that sort of power the rest of the way, and in the postseason. The Cubs could use the guy who hit 34 homers last year and four more in eight postseason games.

Civale finished up with three scoreless innings, earning his second save. Here’s the final out [VIDEO].

Civale, for his part, has been really good in relief since his acquisition July 18. In 12 appearances covering 26.1 innings for the Cubs: 1.37 ERA, 1.025 WHIP, 2.83 FIP, only one home run and a walk rate of just 7.3 percent. He could be a really valuable bullpen piece in the postseason. A note on Civale’s three-inning save from BCB’s JohnW53:

Aaron Civale’s save was the Cubs’ fifth this season of at least three innings. Javier Assad has two, one of four innings. Colin Rea and Jordan Wicks have the others.

The Cubs had five all of last season: one each by Ben Brown, Civale, Chris Flexen, Rea and Wicks.

Here are some postgame comments from Nico [VIDEO].

You can see that “freeze frame” Nico is talking about above. Fact from this game about Nico from John:

Nico Hoerner’s three-hit game was his 13th of the season with at least three, one ahead of Alex Bregman’s 12. Pete Crow-Armstrong has 11; Seiya Suzuki, 10; and eight others have two to seven.

Hoerner has had 66 games with three or more hits since he joined the Cubs in 2019. Ian Happ is a distant second, with 51. Suzuki has 43; Crow-Armstrong, 29; Dansby Swanson, 26; and Michael Busch, 25.

And here are postgame remarks from Counsell [VIDEO].

The Cubs moved back into the top wild card spot by half a game with this win and the Phillies loss Friday.

Javier Assad is going to return from exile Triple-A Iowa to start Saturday’s game against the Marlins. (I’m assuming Tyler Ferguson will be optioned to Iowa to make room on the active roster; we’ll find out for sure later today.) Ryan Gusto starts for Miami. Game time Saturday is 3:10 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

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Today's MLB player props home run analysis will focus on three well-known sluggers. 

Juan Soto is first, followed by NL MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, and last year's HR king, Cal Raleigh, who is starting to wake up. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 5. 

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Juan Soto	24%
Pete Crow-Armstrong	20%
Cal Raleigh	20%
💲Today's HR parlay	104.2x

Home run prediction: Juan Soto (27%)

Juan Soto is a strong home run target thanks to his current batted-ball profile. The New York Mets slugger has gone deep twice over the last week while posting a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 24.4% barrel rate.

His 24.4-degree average launch angle has also translated into a massive 64.3% fly-ball rate, giving him plenty of lift.

Anthony Molina has allowed two homers over his last three appearances and plenty of air contact recently, while the San Francisco Giants bullpen is not untouchable.

Soto has multiple paths to leave Citi Field.

Play this pick down to 28%.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SNY, NBC Sports Bay Area

Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (26%)

Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to show why he belongs in the NL MVP conversation. The slugger has smacked six home runs over his last six games while posting an eye-popping .667 ISO.

PCA has a 55% fly-ball rate during that span, and 54.5% of those fly balls have left the yard. That is not a typo. He also owns a 30% barrel rate over the last week, showing he is consistently squaring up the baseball.

Ryan Gusto has had home run issues at times this season, and the Miami Marlins’ relief corps has also given up 1.23 HR/9 over its last 22 frames.

PCA has two clear paths to another bomb.

Play this pick up to 25%.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Marquee Sports Network

Home run prediction: Cal Raleigh (20%)

Cal Raleigh is finally coming alive. He's slugged six long balls in his last 11 appearances with a loud .513 ISO. Raleigh homered on Friday evening, his second bomb in his previous three contests. 

Tonight's matchup is also favorable. He'll face Jeffrey Springs, who sports an ERA well over six. The left-hander has also allowed a horrendous 3.86 HR/9 across his last two outings, with a fair share of fly balls. 

Raleigh is consistently putting the ball in the air as well. 

Play up to 25%. 

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBC Sports Bay Area

Best home run combo for September 5

Juan Soto	Trade Now 102.2x
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Cal Raleigh

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The Giants out hit the Mets 12 to 9, and outwalked them 6 to 4. They had 14 opportunities with at least one runner in scoring position with four hits; the Mets had just two in eight. San Francisco had one Rafael Devers, who went 3-for-4 with 5 RBIs, New York had no Devers. 

What the Mets had, in outscoring the Giants 10 to 6, were homers. Five of them. And, as us baseball-savvy people know, homers are a good way to score runs. Guaranteed, ya know? One swing, one run at least. Efficient. Quick, majestic sparks that momentarily defy the rules of the world that keep us all earth bound, that force the opposing team to crane their necks and visibly deflate as it rises.

Four batters into the bottom half of the 1st inning, Mark Vientos put New York up by three runs, and the recently re-inflated Giants were back to losing air.  

By the end of the 2nd, things had gotten worse. The Mets were up by 7. Francisco Alvarez back-spun a Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson four-seamer over the right field wall with one out. A walk, a balk, and fielding error by Christian Koss (a real 2026 special) set the table for another run to score on a fielder’s choice before Bo Bichette showed another baseball the door.

That long ball proved to be the decisive coup. Seven runs in — a total that proved out of reach despite the Giants offense putting up a fight against starter Nolan McLean through the middle frames. The fact that McLean had a sweat going, that his adrenaline coursed out of him in one throat-straining, expletive-laced holler of triumph when he froze Christian Koss to end the 6th, as if he just fanned Shohei Ohtani with the bases-loaded in the NLCS, is a testament to the offense’s prickliness.

The adjective “spunk” was used in the broadcast booth to describe the fight of this young, ragtag group: Rafy Devers and the Boys. This kind of outburst from a man who has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since June. McLean strolled onto the mound Friday night having allowed just two runs over his last four starts (25 IP). He had completed six innings in 12 of his last 13 starts, and yet the Giants bats, even down five runs, were under his skin. They made him work.  At least two runners reached base in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th innings. The right-hander needed 30 pitches to get through the 3rd. Turner Hill was a pest. He couldn’t figure out a way to retire Devers, who walked in the 1st, led-off the 5th with a double, and scored two with a double in the 3rd. 

The offense had McLean in the pot. Things simmered, just never boiled. Jung Hoo Lee was a factor there.

Previous trips to the Big City, Lee’s performances had sports writers giddy with Broadway puns: Lee on the marquee; Lee in lights; Lee belting out the hits. I took it a step further after a power outburst in Yankee Stadium, suggesting his bat somehow dictated the barometric pressure over the Bronx. On his last trip to Flushing, Lee collected seven hits over a three game series. 

Not so on Friday night. His at-bats didn’t ratchet up the pressure, they let it dissipate. They didn’t bring the storm for the Giants, rather quelled it for the Mets.

Batting with two on and two out in the 3rd (a split he’s hitting over .300 in), Lee rolled a ground ball to second to end the inning. In the 5th, with the bases loaded and nobody out, a situation primed for Lee’s contact skills to shine, McLean three-pitched him. Perhaps expecting McLean’s devastating and deceptive “no-hump” curveball, Lee ended up watching two sinkers zip by right over the middle of the plate Three pitches later Drew Cavanaugh rolled into a rally-killing double play. Facing lefty reliever Jefry Yan in the 7th, he fanned again with runners on. 

That’s seven stranded in total for Lee. The team collectively would leave 11 on base. Unproductive outs kill: they struck out 11 times, compared to New York’s 4.

Devers’ RBI double would be the only runs against McLean. He’d deliver the only other significant swing for San Francisco five innings later in the 8th when his 8-pitch scruff with Austin Warren ended with another baseball deposited in the bleachers. 

But that was all that could be mustered. San Francisco peaked at six runs, laboriously building and rebuilding momentum, while New York jumped out ahead and never had to look back. Their offense front-loaded their work against Wilkinson, and against a respectable Yunior Marte (3 ER, 5 IP), lazily extended their lead with ho-hum homers from Francisco Lindor and Alvarez in the 6th and 8th.

Devers’s two run double, his three run homer —it was all just catch-up. Despite the obvious will he exerted on the field — picking a tough, in-between hop in an attempt to start a desperately needed double play; swearing at himself in the dugout after being retired for the first, and only time; fouling off pitch-after-2-strike-pitch against Warren, reacting to each offering “missed” by slapping his helmet to his thigh, chastising the barrel of his bat — the red-hot vet could only make up ground, not pull his team level. One swing can only do so much when you’re fighting gravity, a fight the Giants were in since the 1st, and have been in for months now.

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The Cleveland Guardians (59%) have beaten up on sub .500 teams this season, posting a strong 46-32 record when they host the Detroit Tigers. 

With a more in-form offense and a high-end starting pitcher taking the mound, my Tigers vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks are backing Cleveland to clinch a series victory with another win tonight.

Who will win Tigers vs Guardians today: Cleveland Guardians (60%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

To say the Detroit Tigers are struggling against left-handed pitching would be an understatement. 

They’ve hit just .219 over the past month while striking out more than 25% of the time. Their advanced numbers are equally as alarming, with the offense sitting 29th in xwOBA.

Now they draw Parker Messick, who ranks in the 98th percentile in Pitching Run Value. Not a great spot to get off the mat.

The Cleveland Guardians slot eighth in xwOBA against lefties the last 30 days, and showed the ability to get to Detroit’s bullpen in two come-from-behind wins Friday.

Back the Guardians to 61%.

COVERS INTEL: Messick's 91st percentile barrel rate should play extremely well against a Tigers lineup sitting last in barrel% vs. lefties over the last month.

Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (58%)

Messick is a tough nut to crack for any offense, but he’s made life especially miserable when facing poor offenses.

He has faced eight Bottom-10 teams in OPS vs. lefties. The results are remarkably good, with Messick allowing two runs or less in all eight.

I don’t see Detroit scoring much in this spot, which puts a lot of pressure on the Guardians.

Framber Valdez is an elite ground ball generator, and his barrel rate has improved to 5.1% over the past 30 days. 

He shouldn’t give up much power, making the Under attractive up to 60%.

Tigers vs Guardians home run prediction: Jo Adell (17%)

Jo Adell crushes left-handed pitching. He has managed a .278 ISO and .949 OPS this year, and his numbers are trending even further upwards.

He has hit .342 with a .368 ISO and 19.2% barrel rate against southpaws over his last 25 games. Those outputs are out of this world.

Adell also has a great track record against Valdez, going 7-25 (.280 BA) with five extra-base hits. 

Valdez’ high-ground ball rate does not scare me in this matchup.

Tigers vs Guardians weather

Temperatures are expected to sit in the low 70s with winds blowing in. Advantage to the pitchers.

Tigers vs Guardians odds

• Moneyline: Tigers 42% | Guardians 59%
• Run line: Tigers +1.5 (61%) | Guardians -1.5 (40%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (48%) | Under 7.5 (53%)

Tigers vs Guardians trend

Cleveland has won nine of the past 13 games (+3.90 units, 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Tigers vs. Guardians.

How to watch Tigers vs Guardians and game info

Tigers vs Guardians latest injuries

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