Amidst an overwhelming display of prospect prowess up and down the system, premiere shortstop Felnin Celesten headlined an active AquaSox lineup by hitting for the cycle in just seven innings. This marks the first professional cycle for Celesten and underscores what has been a truly remarkable stretch of offensive production. Since May 1st, Celesten is batting .341 with an OPS of 1.024, striking out less than 20% of the time and swiping a flawless 12 bases along the way. Celesten has undoubtedly benefited from playing in the hitter-friendly ballpark in Everett (1.066 Home OPS), but his numbers remain robust while playing on the road (.869 Road OPS) and provide confidence he’s truly excelling at the High-A level. It seems likely he’ll be heading to Double-A Arkansas in the coming weeks, a welcome challenge he’s more than earned.

Though not as flashy as a cycle, top slugger Lazaro Montes mashed his way to a four-hit game on Thursday night, launching two homers and a double in the always brutal Dickey-Stephens Park. Montes has consistently been the best bat in this Traveler lineup and ranks second in the Texas League in home runs (23) on the year. With teammates Caleb Cali and Hunter Fitz-Gerald (16 each) rounding out the top five of that same list, Arkansas’ lineup has an astounding amount of thump despite their brutal offensive environment and has a chance to produce several big leaguers in the coming years. Now officially into the second half, the Travs will look to continue this hot hitting and mash their way to a second half crown.

Rounding out Thursday’s offensive explosion with some excellent performances of their own, the ACL tandem of Nick Becker and Yorger Bautista led the Baby M’s to an 11-4 victory over the Royals’ squad. Bautista (2-3, 3B, 2BB) has had a very solid year in his first action stateside, but last year’s second rounder Nick Becker (2-3, 2B, 2BB, 3SB) has been on another level. Ranking 15th in OPS across Rookie ball, Becker’s 23 stolen bases place him third amongst his leaguemates, and his two caught stealing proves he’s achieved this gaudy total in a highly efficient manner. Each of these two have otherworldly ceilings and are absolutely names to know moving forward.

The Mariners have not scored more than three runs in a single game since dropping 10 on the Nationals way back on June 12. Over the last two weeks, they’ve dropped from second in the AL in wRC+ (107) to eighth (101)! They’ve gone 4-7 during this cold snap and have lost merely a half game in the standings. The mediocrity of the entire AL West — really, the entire American League — has been their saving grace all season long. Now, they’ll wrap up this Midwest road trip with a stop in Cleveland this weekend.

The Guardians are in the middle of a tightly contested AL Central race — and therefore in the middle of the crowded AL Wild Card race too. The only problem is that José Ramírez, their superstar third baseman, fractured his hamate bone in his left hand on June 13 and will be sidelined until August. That puts a ton of pressure on the rest of the roster to at least tread water until he can return to lead the lineup. So far, the team has lost all three series it’s played without Ramírez, though that’s been good enough to stay tied with the White Sox atop their division.

The Guardians’ lineup looks a lot less dangerous without Ramírez anchoring it. Their best hitter is now Travis Bazzana, their rookie second baseman who made his big league debut a couple of months ago. He’s been excellent so far, with a 125 wRC+ and seven home runs in 50 games played, though he can’t carry the load all on his own. The problem is guys like Steven Kwan and Kyle Manzardo, who had been solid sidekicks for Ramírez in the past, have really struggled this year. Kwan’s issues are a huge problem in particular. He’s been Cleveland’s second-best hitter since debuting, but a 47 point drop in his BABIP has completely sabotaged his contact-first approach. If you’re looking for something positive, Brayan Rocchio has taken a pretty big step forward at the plate this year, though he’s hilariously miscast as a number three hitter. That’s just the reality of the Guardians’ options without Ramírez taking that familiar place in the lineup.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

From a previous series preview:

Joey Cantillo spent last year split between the bullpen and the rotation. Once he made the move to starting in July, things really took off for him; he posted a 2.96 ERA and a 3.21 FIP across 13 starts down the stretch. His calling card is a phenomenal changeup that produced a 49.4% whiff rate last year! His two breaking balls are okay too — his curveball is the better of the two but he was testing a new grip on his slider this spring to hopefully increase that pitch’s effectiveness. His command is his weakness, though his walk rate improved slightly after joining the rotation last year. With a role in the rotation secured to start this season, he’s well positioned to take a big step forward if he can get his errant command under control.

The Mariners scored two runs in 3.2 innings against Cantillo in his first start of the season way back in April. It’s been an up-and-down year for him since; he had a 3.57 ERA but a 4.53 FIP through the end of May, but a rough pair of outings against the Yankees and Rangers at the start of this month have pushed his ERA up a hair over four. 

From a previous series preview:

Slade Cecconi came to the Guardians last offseason in the December 2024 trade that sent Josh Naylor to Arizona. He had a decent year in Cleveland, managing to stick in the rotation for the entire year after spending the first two years of his career as a swingman in Arizona’s bullpen. He doesn’t have outstanding stuff and won’t overpower batters, but he does have excellent command and a deep repertoire to keep batters off balance. His two breaking balls are his best pitches and he added a cutter and sinker to his arsenal last year. His fastball is pretty lackluster and that’s where his whole approach breaks down. If he’s not keeping batters honest with his secondary pitches, they can key in on his heater and do some real damage.

The Mariners rocked Cecconi for six runs in 4.1 innings in his first start of the season. He continued to struggle over his next six outings but has since turned things around; he’s got a 2.96 ERA and a 3.50 FIP in nine starts since May 9. The biggest difference has been the introduction of a revamped slider to replace his sweeper. That new breaking ball has returned a 40% whiff rate so far and he’s throwing it about 15% of time this month.

From a previous series preview:

Gavin Williams ended last season on an extremely lucky run. From June through the end of the season, his BABIP allowed was just .221 which led to a 2.50 ERA that far outpaced his 4.27 FIP. Most of his underlying peripherals stayed pretty stable through the season, but a ton of good batted ball luck allowed him to be a key piece of the Guardians’ playoff run in September. He added a sweeper to his pitch mix last year and it returned a 44.0% whiff rate. That gives him two excellent breaking balls to attack batters with alongside a hard fastball. The issue is his command. His walk rate is well below average and it’s pretty shocking he was able to get away with all those baserunners without giving up a ton more runs.

The Mariners really made Williams work in his first start of the season, scoring three runs in five innings on Opening Day. Williams walked six in that outing, a season high for him. He’s steadily improved his walk rate over the course of the season, marking a significant improvement to his results. His strikeout rate is up nearly four points as well, though he’s paid for it by allowing a ton of hard contact and a ton of home runs.

The Big Picture:

The Astros started a four-game series against the Tigers yesterday, winning 2-1. That’s their third win in a row and it moved them into a virtual tie with the Rangers and Athletics for second in the AL West. Both Texas and the A’s won yesterday as well, with the Rangers beating the Blue Jays. That means all three of those AL West teams and Toronto are tied for that final Wild Card spot. After salvaging a win against the Giants yesterday, the Athletics will head to Anaheim to face the Angels this weekend.

Your 2026 New York Mets: My [team’s] a liar, but I’ll stand beside them

“We know our record is not what we want, and we know we are capable of more. We don’t view this as a manager problem, and we don’t intend to make a change.” -David Stearns, May 1st [MLB]

[They’re] all I’ve got, and I don’t wanna be alone

My [team] don’t see me when [they’re] with my friends

“Carlos has led the organization with passion and grace and is beloved by everyone who works with him on a daily basis. Carlos’ impact on our players, staff, and culture over the last three seasons has been transformative. Unfortunately, we know we are falling short and change is necessary to move forward.” -David Stearns [The Athletic]

[They’re] all I’ve got, and I don’t wanna be alone

“Our commitment to bringing our fans a championship-caliber team has not changed. There is no sugarcoating it: this season has been a disappointment and our fans deserve better than what we’ve delivered.” -Steve Cohen [The Athletic]

No, there is no other one

“It’s a completely different inning, especially for Freddy’s outing. It’s just routine plays that are costing us. At this level, you expect to make plays like that. … You understand that they’re not going to be perfect, but those are as routine as it gets. And teams are making us pay for it, especially the past few nights.” -Carlos Mendoza [MLB]

No, there is no other one

“I think I have been a little inconsistent but I have time to be better.” -Freddy Peralta [New York Post]

I can’t have any other one

“It’s very tough to give up the lead right away but it’s part of the game. We have just got to be better. We have got to play better baseball and go out there and execute.” -Juan Soto [New York Post]

Though I would now I never could with one

“Embarrassing. Overall, you know, the whole day. Two losses, but just the way we played overall. That last game, unacceptable. Obviously, everybody’s pissed. Everybody’s frustrated. As simple as that.” -Carlos Mendoza [New York Post]

Nobody knows me like [them]

Nobody knows [them] like me

We’re all we’ve got, and we don’t wanna be alone

No prospect in the Atlanta Braves organization has generated more buzz this season than Rome Emperors outfielder Eric Hartman. The 20-year-old possesses a combination of power and speed that sent him rocketing up hot sheets in the midst of a breakout season.

Hartman, Atlanta’s 20th round selection (611th overall) in the 2024 draft, bypassed a potential college career at Michigan to sign with the Braves for a well-over-slot value of $337,500 as the result of a rigorous scouting effort.  

That investment is paying major dividends for Hartman and the Braves. Hartman is slashing .302/.362/.569 with 18 home runs, 29 stolen bases, 47 RBIs and 51 runs scored in 65 games for Rome, where he is nearly two years younger than the average High-A player.

With roughly half the minor league season in the books, Hartman is closing in on a 20-homer, 20-steal season. No Braves prospect has combined the elements of power and speed like Hartman since Ronald Acuña Jr. blitzed his way through the Atlanta system nearly a decade ago. It can be difficult to avoid those kinds of comparisons as the numbers pile up, but Hartman is keeping his focus on each and every day rather than getting too far ahead of even his own expectations.

I caught up with the impressive Braves prospect this week to get his take on what has been one of the most exciting minor league seasons in all of baseball. I hope you enjoy our conversation.

Grant McAuley: Eric, I’d say that 2026 has been quite a year for you thus far. So, I’ll open up with the most general question I can ask you – what has 2026 been like, because it seems like some big things have been happening for you on the field?

Eric Hartman: I would say just a lot of fun. I think just having fun every day really just allows everything else to work. [I’m] just enjoying the process, enjoying the ups and enjoying the downs, knowing that this is a sport and anything can happen. So, I’m just being excited when things go good and being level when things don’t go as planned.

GM: Sounds like you’ve had an opportunity to really find out what the professional baseball life is all about. There’s another game tomorrow until there’s not, basically. So, a lot to be learned, good, bad and everything in between.

Before we dive into your story, I want to ask you about the guys that you’re playing with. There’s a lot of talent, a lot of excitement on a daily basis to come out to the ballpark with these guys. What has made the Rome Emperors such an exciting team this year?

EH: I’d say just that we can really win any ball game and we’re never out of it on any given day. I think everyone’s really excited based on how we’re stacking at-bats. Every at-bat something cool could happen, so all the guys are really good and really positive. I think that just translates into every day.

GM: As far as what you’re doing every day, it would seem like leveling up your game this year has been the overall theme. Walk me through the difference between, say, the 2025 season, and the things that you learned and the adjustments you wanted to make over the winter. How did you parlay that into a very successful first half this year?

EH: I’m just hammering the basics, really. I wouldn’t say it’s anything crazy, but just really learning, fixing and really focusing on the things I do really well and mastering those. Then it’s just being able to repeat that on a day-to-day basis and trusting myself when a bad game happens. That’s what brought me success before. Then I’m just kind of repeating the things that brought me success, and keeping a steady head on my shoulders.

GM: One of the things I love about the minor leagues is that it is the story of development and of everybody coming into their own at different times and learning more about themselves through the successes and through the failures as well. 

A lot of folks look at the draft, the international signings, or maybe how someone is traded over from another organization – a lot of different things can bring a team together. For you, as the final pick the Braves made in the 2024 draft class, what was that process like?

EH: Yeah, it wasn’t really that crazy. They kind of told me in the final rounds, like 15-19 [I’d be selected]. I definitely was getting a little worried as I saw rounds going by, but I was really pumped to see my name pop-up with that last pick.

GM: I would say that it’s worked out pretty well thus far. I want to talk about your style of play. We’ve seen some of the speed that you’re flashing early in your career, but you’ve really grown into the power this year. I know you said it was kind of hammering the basics over the winter and sticking with those things. Was there anybody you were working with in particular, whether it’s this year in spring training or over the winter, that helped you maximize that part of your game?

EH: All my coaches have really helped me hone in on better misses in terms of flyball percentage, hard-hit percentage, and really just hammering down my bat path and my approach, too. So, all my coaches throughout spring training and here in Rome, too.

GM: The spring training experience for minor leaguers is a different one than over in the major league camp. Did you have an opportunity to get around the major league side and observe some things, or maybe talk with some coaches or players who gave you a little bit of feedback to get the year going or just help you out in little ways that can help a baseball player take that next step?

EH: Yeah, I backed up a few big league games and I think just being around the guys and just realizing that for them it’s just a game, too. That and just watching them handle their business is a really important aspect of it. Learning from that and learning that they don’t put too much pressure on themselves, even when everyone’s looking at them, I think learning that really helped me.

GM: Now, success on the field individually is obviously important. As somebody who’s going out there, going to battle every single day, winning obviously beats losing. But how critical is that to this step as you go along in the minor leagues to have competitive teams – teams that can win a championship at whatever level you’re at?

EH: I think just wanting to win, and like knowing you can win, that’s when everyone succeeds individually. But when you lose focus of that, then that’s when stuff hits the fan and you start losing some of your individual talents. But when you’re all just worried about winning and doing whatever you can to help the team win, then that’s when you really shine.

GM: I talked to your teammate, [Braves 2025 first-round pick] Tate Southisene. He was just promoted to Rome, but he told me that you were one of the first guys that he got to know last year as he was just coming into pro ball. You guys are reunited here in Rome now, so could you describe what his game looks like and the difference a year in pro ball can make? It seems like he’s leveled up quite a bit, too.

EH: Yeah, when he first came in, he was just so talented and he still is. He’s just cleaned up a few things with his swing and in his approach, and it just really shows. It’s totally impressive how far even just confidence-wise a year under your belt can give you and I’m looking forward to watching him here, too.

GM: I know not every player is going to come into a year and say, “I need to get certain statistics or pile up this particular stat line.” Are there certain goals or levels that you set out to achieve in a year? Anything you say that you would like to do this thing or that thing? I know being healthy is a big part of doing those things, but anything in particular?

EH: Not really. I would say, just showing up every day, and yeah, like you said staying on the ball field and giving it my best. But I think as soon as you put a number on anything it slows you down. So, I just like to keep pushing and keeping it going.

GM: I really like that. I think that’s a great way to look at it, because you don’t want to get too focused on the here and now, because it might keep you from where you’re going to be tomorrow. 

That brings me to my final question – which is the fact that we don’t know what tomorrow will bring. But if you play really well in the minor leagues, oftentimes you’ll change addresses a couple of times. Does any of that kind of stuff creep into the back of your mind, or are you really trying to be solely focused on what you’re doing today and getting ready to do it all over again tomorrow?

EH: Yeah, you hit it on the head. Like, I’m just really focused on controlling the controllables and doing whatever I can to stay here. Yeah, taking it a day at a time, because stuff can change really quickly and I’m just enjoying the process here.

GM: Well, I think folks are enjoying you enjoying that process here in Rome. It’s been a great season thus far with a lot of baseball left to be played. Thanks so much for the time and good luck the rest of the way.

EH: Awesome. Thanks for having me.

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Rivals collide tonight at Citi Field as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets. 

With the flourishing Zack Wheeler on the hill, my Phillies vs Mets predictions are eyeing the visitors to take the series opener. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, June 26. 

Who will win Phillies vs Mets today: Phillies -1.5 (+105)

The Philadelphia Phillies enter this series having won five of their last six, and they've covered the run line in four of those games. Zack Wheeler gets the ball tonight, and he owns an impressive 2.71 xERA across his last five appearances. 

During that span, Wheeler has held opponents to a 32.4% hard hit rate, and a solid 44.6% ground ball rate. The veteran is inducing a lot of weak contact, and he's up against one of the most inconsistent lineups in baseball. 

The New York Mets haven't yet announced who will start, but it's likely to be a bullpen game. That's not ideal, considering they own a 41% hard hit rate over the last week. 

I'll play this pick up to -120. 

COVERS INTEL: The Phillies are jumping on everything right now, with a 45.6% hard hit rate in their previous six contests. That's compared to a 40.4% mark in the last month. 

Phillies vs Mets Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 runs (+101)

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the hottest offense in baseball lately, scoring 51 runs over their last six games while slugging 14 home runs. Their .262 ISO and 155 wRC+ during that stretch back up the production.

Zack Wheeler should keep New York's offense in check, but the Phillies have a favorable matchup against a Mets bullpen allowing 1.87 home runs per nine innings over the last week. Even if the Mets contribute only a couple of runs, Philadelphia has more than enough firepower to push this game beyond the total.

I'll play this pick up to -130.

Phillies vs Mets weather

Conditions at Citi Field should be slightly favorable for hitters tonight. Temperatures around 81°F and warm summer air could help the ball carry a bit better, while light 8.1 mph winds aren't expected to have much impact. Overall, the weather provides a modest boost to offense without dramatically changing the matchup.

Phillies vs Mets odds

• Moneyline: Phillies -150 | Mets +144
• Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+108) | Mets +1.5 (-113)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+104) | Under 8.5 (-113)

Phillies vs Mets trend

The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+6.65 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.

How to watch Phillies vs Mets and game info

Phillies vs Mets latest injuries

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After a third straight bullpen meltdown, we saw a different side of Blake Butera. His answers were short and to the point. He was asked about what went wrong with the bullpen, and he simply said “they did not throw strikes and didn’t execute” and when he was asked about his takeaway from the game today, he simply said “our bullpen”.

Last night just felt like a breaking point because we could all see it coming from a mile away. I am sure Blake Butera knew the game had slipped away when he went out to the mound to pull Mitchell Parker after yet another dreadful outing from the lefty. It just felt like Butera had a sense of acceptance with the state of the bullpen. He was asked if he trusted the guys he had to figure it out, and he simply said that they will get opportunities.

Obviously Blake Butera does not trust his relievers, and frankly he would be out of his mind if he did. They let him down and let this fanbase down for three straight nights. The only reason Butera did not say that is because unfortunately, you can’t replace a whole unit overnight. The reality is that Butera does have to keep giving some of these guys shots because this is all they have.

While you can’t send down an entire bullpen, I am quite baffled about why Mitchell Parker keeps getting chances. Yet again, he was at the center of a bullpen collapse. However, it does not look like he will be sent down. On the season, the southpaw has a 6.39 ERA and is coming off a 2025 season where he had a 5.68 ERA. I have no clue what more they need to see here.

One pitcher they did send down was Gus Varland, whose 9th inning meltdown put the nail in the coffin. Varland was very good for this team in April, but had an ERA of 5.79 in May and 11.17 in June. As much as I like Varland the person, this was a move that had to be made. He was just unable to get outs at the big league level.

To Varland’s credit, he was the only Nationals reliever who made himself available to the media. This is despite the fact he had clearly just been told he had been sent down to AAA. He just looked defeated when we spoke to him, saying “this f*cking sucks”. I asked what had changed between April and now, to which Varland said he wished he knew.

Three nights in a row, the Nats had a win probability in the 90’s and blew it. On two of those nights, they were one strike away with nobody on base. Instead of a four game sweep, the Nats lost three of four due to the biggest achilles heel in all of baseball.

As has been pointed out a lot lately, this Nationals team is a resilient bunch, or at least the hitters are. They bounced back after the San Francisco game, and bounced back last night, putting up 5 runs on one of the best pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, the bullpen does not have that same sort of talent or resilience.

Blake Butera even said that he thought his relievers were pitching scared. You could see the confidence completely drain from Mitchell Parker after allowing a couple hits. He became scared to throw strikes, and that sent the wheels in motion. Clayton Beeter, who is always erratic, just did not have it tonight. In that 7th inning, they walked three straight hitters, including two with the bases loaded.

Somehow though, I don’t even think the walks are the biggest problem plaguing this bullpen. That would be the home run ball. On the season, the Nats bullpen has allowed 61 homers. No other unit has even allowed 50. They are on pace to allow 120 home runs as a bullpen, the most by any unit that did not pitch in 2019 with the juiced balls.

The bullpen allowed 6 homers in this series alone. There are multiple bullpens that have not allowed 6 homers all month. It is honestly an embarrassment that this is the product being put out by this unit. This offense is absolutely amazing, and even if the same group is brought back, it is far from guaranteed that the results will be this good again.

This has to be fixed by Paul Toboni at the trade deadline and/or in the offseason. The team has overachieved and are ahead of schedule. They could truly make a push in 2027 even with an average bullpen. A rockstar closer would be nice, but I would take MLB quality pitchers at this point. This bullpen would not look out of place at all in Triple-A.

It is just a real shame that it has come to this. This season was, and in some ways still is very fun. It is cool to actually feel things again after not even being close to competing for so many years. However, we just got a reality check this week. Until the bullpen is totally overhauled, this team is going nowhere.

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We have a ton of value to attack this evening, so here are my favorite MLB player propsfor June 26.

Kyle Manzardo and TJ Rumfield will lead the way on Friday night.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Kyle Manzardo	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-101
TJ Rumfield	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI	-109
Owen Caissie	Over 0.5 hits	-161

Kyle Manzardo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-101)

Getting nearly even money on a hitter batting .300 with a .519 SLG, .886 OPS, 58% hard-hit rate, and a 16% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching is simply too good to pass up.

Kyle Manzardo has been seeing the ball extremely well as of late, and tonight he draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo. Manzardo owns nearly 82% arsenal coverage against his below average pitch mix.

Castillo has been getting torched by left-handed hitters on the road, allowing a 71.4% elevation rate and a 43.7% hard-hit rate. Over the last 60 lefties he's faced, opponents have generated a 48% hard-hit rate, 12% barrel rate, and a 66% elevation rate. They have also posted a .490 xSLG and .357 xwOBA during that stretch.

If you're looking for a plus-money look, pair Manzardo and Travis Bazzana to each record a hit. I think both of these guys are in outstanding spots tonight.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CLEG, SEAM

TJ Rumfield Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-109)

A very tough price to overlook.

Colorado Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield not only owns an elite rating, but also has 76% arsenal coverage against Minnesota Twins right-hander Taj Bradley.

Rumfield has been on fire lately, batting .327 with a .692 SLG, 1.092 OPS, .365 ISO, and just a 13% strikeout rate over his last 60 at bats against right-handed pitching.

Bradley, on the other hand, has been getting lit up by left-handed hitters all season. Over the last 30 lefties he has faced, he has allowed a 60% hard-hit rate, 25% barrel rate, and 75% elevation rate.

Looking at his last three starts overall, Bradley owns a 6.19 xERA while allowing a 54% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate to opposing hitters.

I think the young Pebble and the rest of the Rockies are in a great spot tonight against a pitcher who consistently gives up loud contact. I would have gladly paid -120 for this prop, so make sure to shop around and grab the best number you can find.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, COLR

Owen Caissie Over 0.5 hits (-161)

The Miami Marlins have a guy near the bottom of their lineup named Owen Caissie who has been on an absolute tear. Tonight, he draws St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Michael McGreevy, and the young slugger owns 74% arsenal coverage against his entire pitch mix.

Over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Caissie has produced a 55.6% hard-hit rate, 27.8% barrel rate, .430 wOBA, .679 SLG, and a 1.012 OPS.

On the other side, McGreevy owns a 5.67 xERA and just a 10% strikeout rate over the last 60 left-handed batters he has faced. During that stretch, lefties have posted a .358 xBA, .569 xSLG, and .382 xwOBA against him.

This is a spot where I am more than willing to lay a little extra juice. Caissie to record a hit this evening is a go in my book at anything below -170.

If you're looking for a little more value, his Over 1.5 total bases is a pretty sexy number. Me? I am in the juice-paying business, so I do not mind laying a little extra for the higher floor.

• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CARD, MIAM

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Two NL West ballclubs, fresh off a sweep, meet for a weekend series as the Los Angeles Dodgers travel to Petco to face the San Diego Padres.

L.A. is the favorite (-133) and possesses a nine-game lead in the division, and my Dodgers vs. Padres predictions think the price might be short.

See my full MLB picks below for Friday, June 26.

Who will win Dodgers vs Padres today: Dodgers (-137)

The standings show that only nine games separate the Los Angeles Dodgers from the San Diego Padres.

This short line is influenced by the standings, which fail to mention that L.A. has a +144 run differential while San Diego lags behind at -5.

The Padres have been one of the most fortunate teams in the league, so I’m fading them and quantifying them as an overvalued asset. Their 37-42 BaseRuns record indicates they really could be five wins worse off.

Walker Buehler (15th percentile xBA, 12th percentile whiff rate), similarly, has been lucky.

COVERS INTEL:Roki Sasaki has stepped up a level, posting the eighth-best Stuff+ (113) among starters in his last six outings. His patented splitter should play nicely against a Padres lineup with -3.58 runs above average per 100 splitters seen — the worst mark in the league.

Dodgers vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-105)

Since May 18, San Diego has ranked dead last in AVG (.216), and second-last in OPS (.652) and runs scored per game (3.5).

While Buehler’s underlying metrics are somewhat questionable, the on-field results are not. He’s allowed just a single run in each of his last four starts.

Buehler rarely has an off day, surrendering no more than three earned runs in any of his last eight starts, and no more than four earned in any of his 15 starts this season.

Both bullpens have an ERA below 3.00 across the last 14 days and are fully rested.

Dodgers vs Padres weather

Partly sunny with winds at 9 mph. 

Dodgers vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Dodgers -148 | Padres +123
• Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+119) | Padres +1.5 (-144)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Dodgers vs Padres trend

The Dodgers have won 13 of their last 18 road games against the Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres.

How to watch Dodgers vs Padres and game info

Dodgers vs Padres latest injuries

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