Here’s the location of a 99 mile per hour fastball.

I wouldn’t advise swinging at this pitch. In the Statcast era, there have been 2,416 pitches thrown at least that fast in this part of the plate. The rare guys who’ve swung have a 56% whiff rate and a .307 xwOBAcon. (Imagine Mike Zunino’s whiff rate with Leody Taveras’s quality of contact. Only worse.) Swinging at that pitch is frankly reckless. But here’s what Josh Naylor can do with it:

There’s an Elizabeth Taylor quote that aired relentlessly during the playoffs as Fox pushed its documentary about her: “I don’t think I’m reckless. But I am fearless.” That’s Josh Naylor. And it’s exactly why we all fell for him so hard so quickly. He’s not afraid to swing at a pitch like that, but because he can pull it off, it’s not reckless.

Ryan dug into Naylor’s penchant for swinging high and away after Naylor’s three-hit ALCS Game 2. In that piece, Ryan pointed to Dan Wilson’s thinking on why Naylor can get away with this where others can’t: “His swing is so adjustable. When he sees a pitch up in the zone, he’s able to stay really short and get on top of it, and that’s the key.”

By nature, Naylor’s a bat control hitter. He’s got the raw power you’d expect for a first baseman, and he could use that to chase dingers. But rather than selling out for launch angle, he uses his skills to square up the ball at the 89th percentile, peppering hits all over the field, with enough power to keep pitchers honest. Given his baseball IQ, you trust that choice.

It’s that ability to get the most out of his swing that allows him to fearlessly go after pitches most guys would only flail at. In the Mariners’ biggest regular season series of the year, he went after another high pitch to help bury the Astros.

The conventional wisdom is to elevate and celebrate. Naylor knows he’s better this way, and he’s brave enough to go against the grain.

While it comes through in his hitting, when you think of Josh Naylor’s fearlessness, it’s probably his baserunning that comes to mind first. And in this department, his fearlessness is actually underrated.

Naylor’s a big-bodied first baseman with a sprint speed in the third percentile, 12th lowest in MLB. And yet he stole 30 bases this year, including going a perfect 19 for 19 with Seattle. When he first started his spree, you could say it was just pitchers ignoring a big guy, but he didn’t get any less daring after the word got out.

So when people talk about his stolen bases, they usually talk about how he’s able to do it because of his baseball IQ. He can spot tendencies and timing in pitchers at an apparently elite level, enough to compensate for his concrete shoes. But consider the 27 other players with sprint speeds under 25 feet/second. 17 of them are catchers; it’s not exactly a low-baseball-IQ group. Yet those other 27 players combined for just 15 stolen base attempts. Naylor’s 32 attempts are a testament to his willingness to take risks. His 94% success rate proves he knows what he’s doing and that his baseball IQ is, in fact, elite.

This all came together in one of the biggest games in Mariners franchise history: Game 5 of the ALDS. If ever there was a time for caution, this would have been it. A slow guy getting caught stealing, wasting a precious base runner against Tarik Skubal, could easily have ended up being the story of how the Mariners were eliminated from the playoffs. But Josh Naylor wasn’t afraid to try, and in a game that went 15 innings, you can bet the run mattered.

He plays defense the same way. As he daringly plays farther toward second than any other first baseman. Others play a bit farther from the bag, but they do it safely, playing back rather than shading towards second as Naylor does. His confidence that he can still cover the bag means he’s not sacrificing outs to play with optimized positioning. In other words, it’s not reckless. Aren’t you glad he wasn’t closer to the bag in ALCS Game 3? Lots of teams would like to position thier first baseman here against Alejandro Kirk. Only Naylor’s can actually do it.

Naylor employs a style of play that seems crazy. But he’s not being reckless, just fearless. And beyond merely being good, this is what made him an instant fan favorite and a player the Mariners and their fans felt they couldn’t live without. It’s no wonder he was ready for the big moment.

Kiley McDaniel unveiled his preseason rankings of top 100 prospects in baseball on Tuesday at ESPN. Like the previously released lists — Baseball America (120 names), MLB Pipeline (110 names), and The Athletic (100 names so far) — McDaniel will likely reveal more names beyond the top 100. Last year his list went to 200, for instance. But for now we have his top 100.

A total of five Dodgers are in the top 100 at ESPN, led by outfielder Josue De Paula at No. 21 overall. De Paula in the four national prospect lists that have been revealed in the last week has settled into a fairly narrow range, ranked 15th by MLB Pipeline, 20th at The Athletic, 21st at ESPN, and 24th at Baseball America.

McDaniel had high praise for De Paula, comparing him to Yordan Alvarez “if it clicks.”

Eduardo Quintero continued to rocket up these lists, ranked 37th by McDaniel after his preseason ranking of 106th overall prior to the 2025 season. Quintero, who is a year younger than De Paula and Zyhir Hope, won California League MVP last year and finished the season with extended time at High-A Great Lakes.

“His raw power, bat-to-ball ability, and raw foot speed are all around average, but Quintero makes the most of them, putting up big numbers while being young for his level,” McDaniel wrote. “As is, his hit/power/speed/defense in center field tools are all average to a tick above to go with his plus arm.”

Last preseason, seven Dodgers were ranked in the top 100 prospects by ESPN, led by pitcher Roki Sasaki at No. 1 overall and catcher Dalton Rushing 16th. Both played in the majors last season.

This year, shortstop Emil Morales is the youngest Dodger in the ESPN top-100 list, with the 19-year-old checking in at No. 65 overall. From McDaniel:

Morales has all of the traits to project big homer totals down the road (loft to his path, pull/lift, hard-hit rate, etc.), but that means that giving up some contact is part of that trade. His pitch selection is also below average, so in combination, that gives evaluators pause on his offensive projection.

In-game power usually comes later in the development process, but the Dodgers are the right development group to shepherd him through this process, and the pieces are here for a top-10 prospect in the sport if everything clicks.

Last week, I wrote this article noting that a number of owners were “enraged” about the Dodgers signing Kyle Tucker and that some owners were going to push for a salary cap “no matter what.”

The Dodgers are doing a pretty good job of playing MLB’s villain team, the equivalent to the “Evil Empire” the Yankees were back in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Now comes a report written by Drew Lerner of Awful Announcing, citing ESPN’s Joon Lee, who says the Dodgers have been getting favorable revenue-sharing treatment for their TV revenue — and that this break for the Dodgers will continue for another 13 years. Here are the details:

In a recent report, Lee outlined how the Dodgers have historically benefited from the revenue-sharing system as a result of the club’s bankruptcy and subsequent sale in 2012. Lee reports that teams typically share about one-third of their local television revenue, but the Dodgers, in the midst of their bankruptcy proceedings in federal court, secured a much more favorable rate of about 10%.

Given the Dodgers have by far the most lucrative local broadcast deal in MLB (a ludicrous $334 million per year), Lee estimates the team could avoid contributing about $66 million per year to the league’s revenue-sharing pool under its special arrangement. That, of course, doesn’t sit well with fans of other clubs, who in recent years have seen the Dodgers buy their way to one of the most stacked rosters in the history of the game.

Previously, it was unknown exactly how long the Dodgers would retain these favorable terms. But Lee revealed in his report, citing a league source, that the agreement goes through 2039, when the Dodgers’ current local broadcast deal expires. In other words, the team’s built-in advantages could benefit them for another 13 years.

You can watch Lee’s full report at the link in that quote, or a summary of it here.

This was done, as noted, because the Dodgers declared bankruptcy during the Frank McCourt ownership era, which ended more than 13 years ago. New ownership took advantage of that, as well as the revenue coming in under their huge Charter Communications RSN deal, to become the most dominant team in the league. L.A. has won the NL West in 12 of the last 13 seasons, missing out only in 2021 when the Giants had that freak 107-win year and the Dodgers won “only” 106, which is tied (with 2019) for the second-most wins in Dodgers franchise history. They’ve played in five World Series in those 13 years, winning three (and probably would have made that four if not for the Astros cheating scandal in 2017).

From the Awful Announcing article, here’s how much the Dodgers have their proverbial thumbs on the scale:

Charter Communications, the telecom giant that owns Spectrum SportsNet LA, the television home of the Dodgers, would reportedly have to declare bankruptcy to wiggle its way out of the $334 million-per-year deal. That’s not something Charter, whose main business is providing broadband service to tens of millions of customers nationwide, necessarily wants to do.

So while other clubs are accepting cuts to local broadcast revenue as cord-cutting threatens regional sports networks, the Dodgers are sitting pretty. And it makes the team’s favorable arrangement look even more absurd to the average fan.

Whether the Dodgers will be able to maintain this arrangement with Charter until 2039 remains to be seen. The league may have an opportunity to rewrite some of its revenue-sharing procedures once the current collective bargaining agreement expires after this season.

But for now, the optics do not look great. The Dodgers aren’t paying their fair share and are able to buy whatever players they want.

The conclusion is absolutely correct, in my view. The Dodgers are getting a break that might have been reasonable 13 years ago, but it certainly isn’t now. As noted, this will almost certainly be something that’s brought up in the CBA negotiations coming up later this year.

One thing is certain. There’s not a level playing field in MLB. There should be, in my view, so that the teams that win most aren’t just the teams with the most money — they should be the teams with the best baseball management. If a salary cap, along with a floor and a guaranteed portion of MLB revenue to players, is how to accomplish that — then bring it on.

The crack of the bat. The growing crescendo of cheers as the ball flew over the outfield fence. The flashing lights in celebration of the home run. The jubilation of the team and stadium announcer as the batter rounded the bases. Though my wife and I were thousands of miles away from our home, the baseball experience at its core is delightfully universal.

Then, the pep band started playing the home run hitter’s personalized song, and the crowd chanted along. That part was different. 

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Let’s take a few steps back. I’ve been to a handful of epic games in my life. I took my wife to her first Kansas City Royals game in 2011, which just so happened to be Eric Hosmer’s MLB debut. We went to the Justin Maxwell walkoff grand slam game in 2013. I was at the 2014 Wild Card Game, and a handful of other playoff games since then. 

And while I don’t have a particularly impressive set of MLB parks I’ve been to, we try to go to a game when we travel domestically. We saw Shohei Ohtani hit a home run in Dodgers Stadium. We saw Pete Alonso hit a home run at Citi Field. We almost got heat stroke going to Coors Field and the Great American Ball Park in cloudless skies during the dead of summer. We had the high privilege of, uh, watching Eric Skoglund give up 12 runs in Cleveland before the Royals got their second baserunner.

So when my wife and I were planning our trip to Japan in celebration of our 10th wedding anniversary in 2024, there were a few key parts of our trip. One of those was attending a professional Japanese baseball game. 

Japan’s pro baseball league is called Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB). Since the country’s total geographic footprint is about as large as the state of California, there are way fewer teams–12, in total. Ten of those teams play on the main island of Honshu, with one playing on the northern island of Hokkaido and another on the southern island of Kyushu. 

We almost didn’t make a game. Even though we were in Japan for almost two weeks, a few factors conspired against us. One, there are only ever six games going on at one time, which doesn’t present a lot of options. Two, it just had to fit our schedule. And three, there was a typhoon that resulted in cancellations of the entire league’s schedule for multiple days (even those that played indoors).

But we did eventually get to see one close to the end of our trip. The contest: the Hiroshima Toyo Carp playing the Yokohama DeNA Baystars.

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Yokohama Stadium opened in 1978, and it’s located in the heart of the Yokohama city center right next to a train station. The stadium was fine; it had a small video board, but there were plenty of food vendors and seats were close to the action. Seating 35,000 in its baseball configuration, it looked like what you think a 1970s-era baseball-specific stadium looks like. It was a nice place to watch a game, but easily the least notable part about the experience.

As is the case everywhere in urban Japan, getting to the stadium was easy. We simply took a train from Shibuya Station and walked out of Yokohama-Koen station to find ourselves mere steps from the gates. Parking was nonexistent, and everyone was either getting off at the same station or simply walking from the many offices and apartments in the immediate area. 

The Japanness of it all started before we even got there. We took the train from Shibuya Station (yes, Persona 5 fans, that Shibuya Station) which dropped us off across the street from Yokohama Stadium. We had purchased tickets online and scanned them at the gate. There was minimal security; certainly less than in the States. From there, we went to our seats.

I know that a lot of folks try out food and drink at a stadium, and a friend of mine who visits MLB stadiums with his brother uses the cuisine quality as a core ingredient to judge the experience. We had already eaten, though, and even when I go to games here in the States I don’t usually eat at the stadium.

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Our seats were located along the first base side, the Kauffman Stadium equivalent of the sections in the low 140s. Notably, our seats were in the home section, which was specifically designated because the fans are very, very active in the game. In the photo above, you can see the Hiroshima Carp fans over along the third base dugout and, more notably, over in the outfield seats beyond the left field fence.

Baseball in Japan isn’t just another sport: it is the national sport of the nation, and it is an incredibly big deal there. Japanese fans therefore have more in common with European soccer fans than MLB fans. This means that they’re loud and proud all the time.

It also means that there are a bunch of chants. And when you go to an NPB game, you’ll hear bespoke chants for every player, and I do mean every player—even for American-born players, of which there were a couple in the game we went to. During the pregame lineup announcements, the Baystars pep band played the theme for each player. And yes, the Carp brought their own pep band, too, and played the themes for their own players.

The energy in the stadium was, as you might expect, incredible, and it only got more electric as the game went on. It was an early evening game, and more and more folks showed up directly from work, dressed in their work attire. When they got to their seats, they put on the Baystars or Carp gear that they brought with them and joined the chanting.

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The game itself was a fun time. It was a relatively high-scoring game considering the traditionally low-offense affair that is indicative of NPB play. There was a home run, and the home team ended up winning handily.

While playoff MLB games can be loud and raucous, the vibes of an NPB game are just so different. Not only do the players have individual chants, but these chants happen continuously when they are up to bat. It’s louder when the home crowd is up to bat, but remember that the away team also has a pep band and their own chanting fans in a block.

It was actually enjoyable to see the Baystars play the Carp. Earlier in the week, we had made a trip to Hiroshima. I had wanted to visit Peace Memorial Park, the A-Bomb Dome, and the Peace Memorial Museum, and we did so—it was equal parts somber and historically fascinating, and every American who visits Japan should try to make a trip there. When we were there, we stopped by the official Carp merch store at Mazda Zoom Zoom Stadium (its real name, I promise) and picked up some NPB merch, including a Carp jersey and a hat depicting a bowl of ramen swinging a baseball bat.

The charm of Hiroshima—a really lovely city with an expansive tram network—and their clear love for their baseball team won out, so I guess we’re Carp fans? So it was fun to watch that team play, even if we bought tickets in the wrong section. So it goes.

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All in all, watching an NPB game was an absolute blast and one of the highlights of a trip that included many, many highlights. Japan is a great place to visit; it’s got easily usable public transit, a wide variety of delicious food, and experiences for every kind of traveler.

And even though this trip happened a year and a half ago at this point, my wife and I are going back to Japan in April. The aforementioned typhoon prevented us from going to the Nagashima Spa Land amusement park, and that place has multiple bucket list roller coasters we wanted to ride.

Of course, that means another opportunity to watch NPB baseball. At the moment, that’s looking like a game between the Yomiuri Giants and the Tokyo Yakult Swallows, although it could be a few others. I can’t wait to experience it again.

Last week, in our Rangers Reacts Survey, we asked where folks thought the Texas Rangers would finish in the American League West.

And I have to say, y’all were a bit of a downer, though this was before the MacKenzie Gore trade gave everyone a shot in the arm.

Almost half of those who responded said that the Rangers would finish third in the division. The second most common result, though? Fourth place. I don’t know if it is the homeless A’s or the reclamation project Angels that folks feel the Rangers will be beat out by.

In fairness, first place and second place were barely behind fourth place in the voting. And only 3% said that the Rangers would finish last, so that’s something.

The Mets capped off their most active week of the offseason in a big way, acquiring Freddy Peralta and Tobias Meyers for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. It’s likely the last large addition the Mets will make this offseason, but boy it sure is a great way to round things out.

Peralta is obviously the centerpiece. Since moving to the rotation full time in 2021, he’s tossed 738.1 innings of 3.30 ERA ball. In that timeframe, he’s one of only 25 qualified starters to post a 20% or better K-BB%. At this juncture, he’s probably something like a top-15 or top-20 arm in the majors – not quite good enough to meet the definition of “sure fire ace”, but undoubtedly a solid number two starter who will complement Nolan McLean at the top of the rotation.

We should note that despite being generally healthy (outside of a shoulder strain in 2022), Peralta is not a exactly a work horse. The Brewers were extremely judicious with how they deployed him, frequently pulling Peralta early and leaning on their bullpen to get the rest of the way. That was much the same in 2025, when he averaged a hair over 5.1 innings per start and didn’t face a single batter four times in a single game all season. Not a typo, the most batters Peralta faced in a game last season was 27, and he only topped 23 batters 7 times. There’s nothing wrong with this per se, particularly in the modern game, but it is a limitation that the Mets’ field staff will have to manage. (Raise your hand if you have faith in Carlos Mendoza here.)

The Mets are also getting the chance to extend Peralta here, and he’s already indicated a willingness to sign a long-term deal. We can look to Tyler Glasnow as a reasonable comp; a pitcher traded one year prior to free agency in his age-30 season. Glasnow ultimately received an additional three-years and $110M, with a club / player option for a fifth season. He was due a higher base salary ($25M), but Peralta has the better track record, so maybe that comes out in the wash. Something in the low 9-figure range that takes Peralta through his age-34 season would seem to make sense, and that’s a good deal for the Mets in all likelihood. And, if this doesn’t work out, the Mets can QO him and get a pick back for their troubles.

Three paragraphs later, we get to Myers, who is far more than a throw in despite the narrative delay. Now four years and three teams removed from being traded for Junior Caminero (a real oopsie by Cleveland), Myers has settled in as a valuable swing-man with five seasons of team control remaining. No, the stuff doesn’t totally leap off the page, and his strikeout rate dipped in 2025, possibly because he had a lingering oblique injury. He also doesn’t have the same upside of Sproat in all likelihood (more on that in a moment). What he does do is fill a very similar role for the Mets’ roster with a similar amount of team control and some untapped potential. It’s a great get as the second piece.

Now, for the cost. Williams and Sproat were set to rank 4th and 5th respectively on our upcoming top-10 list. I was a bit lower on both than our final consensus:

#4: Jett Williams

I don’t disagree that much with Jett’s ranking here (I had Ewing above him, but no one else), but I still find myself pretty down on him as a prospect, and I don’t think it’s just prospect fatigue. I began voicing concerns about Jett’s hit tool ~2 years ago, and in that time he’s not really assuaged any of those worries. Sure, injuries have played a role and the strikeout rate has held steady in the low-20s, but that’s not because Williams is great at putting bat on ball, it’s because he just doesn’t swing. He ranked in the 6th percentile for hittable pitches taken, nuking his SEAGER down to 3.9 despite the aforementioned healthy walk and strikeout rates. Couple that with what is still just okay damage on contact and a tweener-ish defensive profile and this is trending more towards “high quality bench bat” or “second division starter” rather than the sort of player we were extolling as the future of the team in 2023.

#5: Brandon Sproat

Brandon Sproat does a lot of things well. He throws pretty hard, he finally landed on a breaking ball shape that works, and the change is still a decent pitch. Put in terms of physical skills, you can say that he has good arm speed and feel for spin. However, this has never really all come together for him, in large part because his fastball shape just isn’t viable at present. Even with the addition of a sinker last season – one that grades out better but still not great – I’m still not convinced he’s the type of arm who can make it through a lineup two or three times. If you couple that with the lack of development runway relative to other arms (Sproat is older and was selected as a senior out of a major college program, which would normally mean there’s less juice to squeeze) in the back of the top-10 and I think I’d actually prefer Sproat a good deal lower, even though he’s a totally justifiable top-100 prospect.

Both are definitely top-100 prospects, but neither are in the tier of guys that it particularly hurts to move. Especially when you’re the Mets and are inducing jumps on both sides of the ball these days – it’s a lot easier to move Brandon Sproat when you have Jonah Tong and Jack Wenninger, and it’s a lot easier to move Jett Williams when you have A.J. Ewing and Jacob Reimer.

This price is also roughly in line with another trade made by the Brewers, that being the Corbin Burnes deal. Burnes was a better arm making nearly double what Peralta will make in 2025, and he wasn’t likely to sign an extension either. Nevertheless, the Brewers gave up two prospects in the back half of the top-100 (Joey Ortiz and DL Hall, a package I would argue is of lower quality than what the Mets gave up but not by a huge margin) for one year of Burnes’ in 2024.

Had the Mets only received Peralta, this would’ve been a totally fine deal, a market-value acquisition for a #2 starter rental. With the addition of Myers and Peralta’s seeming willingness to extend, it looks even better. This deal receives an A.