Category: Sports News

Happy Tuesday! The Mariners concluded this year’s Spring Training with a 3-10 loss to the San Diego Padres, but a solid outing from starter Luis Castillo was one of the game’s highlights. Castillo pitched five innings and only gave up one run on four hits with five strikeouts. 

We are just two sleeps away from 2026 Opening Day, and first pitch can’t come any sooner. The Mariners will be faced with a number of difficult roster decisions before then, however, including J.P. Crawford’s position at shortstop and Bryce Miller’s rotation spot. With both players battling injuries and a little uncertainty with their status, who do you think will occupy those positions on the Mariners’ Opening Day roster?

In Mariners news…

• Ryan Divish at The Seattle Times details how the baseball journeys of Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh have led them to the success they are seeing today.
• Bryce Miller has been progressing quickly through his recovery from oblique inflammation and believes his next step is to pitch a live bullpen session on Friday.

Around the league…

• Center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Chicago Cubs are finalizing a long-term contract extension.
• Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider will begin the season on the 10-day IL with a left oblique strain.
• Veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen has made the Texas Rangers’ Opening Day roster in his 18th MLB season.
• RHP John Brebbia has been released from his minor league deal by the Colorado Rockies and will now become a free agent.
• The Athletics have traded infield prospect Cooper Bowman to the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for righty pitching prospect Gerlin Rosario.
• Washington Nationals RHP Josiah Gray has been diagnosed with a flexor strain and been placed on the 60-day IL.
• Tampa Bay Rays second baseman Gavin Lux will begin the season on the 10-day injured list due to a right shoulder impingement.
• Mike Petriello at MLB.com breaks down the ABS data from this year’s Spring Training and how it compares to Triple-A data from the 2025 season.

Over the course of the offseason, I settled on a new framing device for how to look at a baseball team and its chances of making the playoffs. The common thought around baseball goes like this: “You’re going to win 54 games, you’re going to lose 54 games. It’s what happens in the other 54 that determines where you end up.” I like to think about winning enough of those 54 games to reach the postseason as answering a sufficient number of “ifs.”

You will win a game if the starting pitcher does well, if the bullpen can lock it down, if the offense can score runs, or if you can get a little lucky. Those statements can all be broken down into more specific questions, and, of course, for any given game, you don’t need all of those if-statements to come true, but you need enough of them to work out. And so it is with the season. That’s why projection systems are so conservative by nature, because you’d have to be nearly perfect to be expected to win 108, and have nearly the worst outcome imaginable to lose that many. But the number of potential answers a team has can make a big difference.

For example, every team that wants to succeed needs to try to answer that first “if” every night; they’ve got to send a starting pitcher to the mound. Last year, the Royals had six possible answers that they felt pretty good about when the season started. That ended up not being enough, and people called it bad luck with injuries. The Dodgers suffered more injuries to their starting rotation, but still won the World Series. Why? Because they had more “ifs” they could use when they rolled snake eyes.

There’s also the matter of the quality of the ifs, of course. In computer programming, an “if statement” is followed by a list of possibilities separated by an AND or an OR. If the options are combined with and, everything has to go right to continue (also known as “returning true”); if they’re combined with an OR, you only need one of them to return true. When I was younger, the ifs would go something like, “If Mark Teahen can move to second AND he can still play good defense AND he can continue improving his bat into his late 20s AND he doesn’t slow down AND someone else can play third, first, left, and rightfield, the Royals can win! That’s simply too many ifs for one player to answer, so you’re not going to get to follow through.

If you prefer betting metaphors, it’s the difference between betting a six-legged parlay and having six individual bets. In the parlay, they’ve all got to cover for you to win any money. If you do six individual bets, and you win some of them, you can still make a profit. (Remember this when you’re considering whether to play a parlay or not, please. Parlays are a sportsbook’s best friend and a bettor’s worst enemy.)

The 2026 Royals have a series of if questions to answer, but there are a lot fewer ANDs than we’ve become accustomed to as Royals fans. And the Royals have as many potential options as they’ve had in the history of my fandom to plug in for the ORs.

If the starting pitcher does well

The bare minimum number of answers necessary for this question is five – the number of starters in a rotation at any given time. However, the reality has always been that you’re going to need more than five; probably closer to ten or even fifteen correct answers over the course of a full season. For each starting pitcher, you basically have to answer two more if questions: if he is healthy and if he pitches well. Here’s how the Royals began 2025:

• Cole Ragans
  • Extremely likely to pitch well
  • Unlikely to be healthy
• Seth Lugo
  • Likely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Michael Wacha
  • Likely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Michael Lorenzen
  • Not particularly likely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Kris Bubic
  • Quite likely to pitch well
  • Unlikely to be healthy
• Noah Cameron
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Alec Marsh
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Was hurt before the season started
• Kyle Wright
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Extremely unlikely to be healthy, injured shortly into the season

The Royals simply didn’t have enough guys who were likely to satisfy both criteria, and that ended up bearing out in the end. However, things are different in 2026. Ragans, Wacha, and Lugo are all back and in roughly similar positions as last year. Noah Cameron and Kris Bubic are back, but you’d expect more out of both of them than you did entering last season, as long as they remain healthy. They lost Lorenzen, Marsh, and Wright, but look who they added:

• Ryan Bergert
  • Likely to pitch well
  • Not particularly likely to be injured
• Stephen Kolek
  • Likely to be average
  • Not particularly likely to be injured
• Bailey Falter
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Luinder Avila
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Not particularly likely to be injured
• Ben Kudrna
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Mitch Spence
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy
• Mason Black
  • Unlikely to pitch well
  • Likely to be healthy

Now, don’t get hung up on how many of those guys are unlikely to pitch well, because not all of them need to. The 2026 Royals don’t have any more ifs for their rotation than the 2025 team did, but they have more potential answers. Soren Petro has spent a lot of time on the Kauffman Corner podcast this offseason asking how things might have gone differently for Luke Hochevar if the Royals had had guys who could start games instead of him, allowing him to shift to the bullpen earlier in his career than he did. If one of these guys turns into a modern-day Luke Hochevar – looking at you, Mason Black – the Royals won’t have to ask if; they’ll be able to find out because they do have someone else who can step into the rotation and give it a shot.

If the bullpen can lock it down

We don’t need to go through that whole exercise from above with every reliever; there are too many of them. But trust me when I say the Royals have more options with better chances of returning true than they’ve ever had before under manager Matt Quatraro. Any of Carlos Estévez, Lucas Erceg, John Schreiber, Alex Lange, Nick Mears, or Matt Strahm might have been the best reliever on the roster at the start of 2024. Heck, this year’s version of Steven Cruz or Luinder Avila might have been, too, and they’re both starting the year in the minors. James McArthur was the Royals’ closer for much of that year, and even if he gets healthy and starts pitching better than he did that season, he might not be able to find much time on the big league roster because of how much more talent the team has available this year. John Schreiber was last year’s third-best reliever and might be this year’s seventh-best.

When you have enough potential answers, the likelihood of getting one right goes way up; that’s just probability. The likelihood of rolling a six on a standard die is 16.7%; the likelihood of rolling at least one six on two standard dice is 30.5%; the likelihood of rolling at least one six on three standard dice is 42.1%. You can never get all the way to 100% probability, no matter how many dice you add, but still, more dice give you better odds, and the Royals have a lot of dice in 2026.

Last year, Carlos Estévez led all of MLB in saves. But if he had gotten injured, the only likely solution for closer would have been Lucas Erceg, who wasn’t pitching as well in 2025 as he did after being acquired in 2024. After him would have been John Schreiber, who isn’t as bad as Royals fans sometimes think, but doesn’t seem likely to thrive in the closer role for very long. But, while there is some concern about Estévez to start the year, there are still half a dozen other guys after him and Erceg who are at least as good as Schreiber that you can try out at the closer job for a short time without feeling like you’re stretching too far. That includes Strahm, who has been one of the best relievers in baseball over the past three years. If those guys are healthy and pitching well, then they get a chance to come up sixes in the earlier innings, instead, shortening games in a way that the 2015 Royals enjoyed with the option to try out a variety of guys in the fifth and sixth innings because they knew HDH had the back three locked down.

If the offense can score runs

Let’s list the questions the offense needs to answer:

• If Bobby Witt Jr. can be a star
• If Maikel Garcia can be close to as good as he was last year
• If Vinnie Pasquantino can continue to be an RBI machine
• If Salvador Perez can fight off Father Time for another year
• If Jonathan India can bounce back to be playable
• If Isaac Collins can continue to show elite plate discipline
• If Kyle Isbel can still be a defensive force in center field
• If Jac Caglianone can live up to the projections this time
• If Carter Jensen can look like the guy he was in September
• If Lane Thomas can mash lefties again
• If Starling Marte can hit
• If Michael Massey can find his form from 2024 and stay healthy

That’s a lot of ifs, but reading through that list, a lot of them feel pretty likely, yes? Last year, the list included things like “If MJ Melendez’s swing change works” and “If Jonathan India can hit at the highest level he’s ever hit AND play two brand new positions competently”. Things that we either did or should have assumed wouldn’t work. Last year also included “If Bobby Witt Jr. can be a superstar”, which is very different from just being a star, which he still was last year, and feels like his floor.

In a lot of these cases, we’re just asking the players to continue doing what they’ve done. One of the meme-able complaints about Dayton Moore was his seeming belief that everyone would do better next year, and that’s how the team would win. The 2026 Royals mostly don’t need to get better; they just need to be as good as they have recently been.

And, once again, not all of these have to happen. The most obvious example of this is that only one of the three out of Isaac Collins, Lane Thomas, and Starling Marte has to hit to make left field significantly better than last year. When Melendez and Renfroe didn’t succeed last year, the Royals were forced to turn to John Rave and Drew Waters. Now, instead of the first guys through the door, Waters might be gone entirely, and Rave might be third or fourth choice in the minors after several viable-seeming options in the bigs. Second base still looks like a problem because while the team only needs to find success with India or Massey to fix second base, neither seems particularly likely. Still, if everything else works out, that leaves only one hole in a lineup. And a lineup that goes eight deep is still a lineup you can win with.

You want to know what has to happen for the Royals to make the playoffs? So does the team! The old saying goes that no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy. Every year, the Royals have made a plan to get to the postseason. This year, though, when the Royals’ plans inevitably go awry, they have given themselves more options than ever to figure it out. What needs to happen for the Royals to make it to the playoffs? No one knows for sure, but the Royals seem likely to have answers, regardless.

Morning everyone and happy Tuesday!

We knew since Friday that Luis Severino would be taking the ball on Opening Day. It wasn’t a shock and was well-deserved considering how he’s been pitching over the past few weeks across both Spring Training and the World Baseball Classic. Sevy gets Game 1 but now we know how the rest of the first series will go.

It’s no shock to see left-hander Jeffrey Springs getting the nod for Game 2 on Saturday. The lefty was one of the team’s best pitchers for a majority of the season last year. Outside of a disastrous first month of the season Springs was the anchor in the middle of the rotation that the A’s thought they were getting when they acquired him from the Rays last offseason. We’ll all be hoping that Springs can avoid that rough start this year, though he’ll have a tough task in the Blue Jays. In 12 career appearances against Toronto (5 starts), Springs has a 4.46 ERA, including two starts last year. Springs will be opposed by right-hander Dylan Cease, the high-priced free agent signee who will be making his team debut when he gets the ball. A tough matchup to be sure but if we get mid-season Springs we should be okay.

Surprisingly the A’s will go with right-hander Luis Morales for Game 3 on Sunday. The 23-year-old is one of the prized pitching prospects in the organization and looked good in his big league debut at the end of last year, pitching to a 3.14 ERA in his first 10 games. Things have not been smooth for him this spring however as he’s struggled in most of his appearances. It’s important to remember it’s just spring but still, it’s been a growing concern for A’s fans and he didn’t do anything to assuage those anxieties in yesterday’s spring finale. Hopefully these worries are all for not, but the A’s will be asking a lot of Morales considering he’s so young, has little big league experience and reached his career-high in innings pitched last year at just 89. Morales may have a few short starts throughout the year, if he can keep his spot in the rotation. He’ll be opposed on Sunday in the series finale by left-hander Eric Lauer.

That sets up left-hander Jacob Lopez and right-hander Aaron Civale to take the first two games in the second series of the year when the A’s travel to take on the Atlanta Braves. We don’t know the order but it’d be fair to assume Civale gets Game 4 on account of his veteran status. Lopez was one of the better pitchers the A’s had last year but had an elbow injury hanging over his head all offseason. It seems he’s gotten through camp without any setbacks and so hopefully Lopez is a full-go. If it was based on last year’s results then Lopez would get Game 4 but we’ll have to wait and see how manager Mark Kotsay wants to order the rotation.

It’s getting closer! Enjoy the next few days without baseball guys because once games get going it’s six long months until the end of the season. Marathon, not a race.

Have a good one A’s fans.

A’s Coverage:

• Morales’ latest dud raises readiness questions
• A’s wrap spring up with win over White Sox
• A’s trade minor leaguer Cooper Bowman to Rays for Gerlin Rosario
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Observes The Wild Denzelope In Its Natural Habitat
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Toes The Rubber With Pitching Coach Scott Emerson
• AN Exclusive: Blogfather Catches Up With Starting Pitcher Jacob Lopez
• Athletics drop one to the White Sox 6-4
• Eyeball Scout Wowed By 12— Win: Lots To Love
• March Reminder: Opening Day Rosters Matter More To The Fans
• A’s Lose To Texas 7-6 in Spring Training Matchup
• Can Muncy’s glove catch up to his bat at third base?

MLB News and Interest:

• Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong agree to contract extension
• Mets phenom Benge makes Opening Day roster
• Top Cardinals prospect Wetherholt makes Opening Day roster
• Braves starter Spencer Strider to begin year on IL
• Astros finalize season-opening rotation
• Nats starter Josiah Gray has flexor strain in elbow
• Andrew McCutchen earns spot on Rangers’ Opening Day roster
• Robot umpires are coming to MLB. Here’s how they work
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

TJ McFarland calling it quits:

Former A's lefty announces retirement https://t.co/NFZCiHxRw6

— Jason Burke (@ByJasonB) March 24, 2026

Jump at Triple-A, Arnold at Double-A to start the year:

A’s No. 3 prospect Gage Jump will begin the regular season at Triple-A Las Vegas, while No. 2 prospect Jamie Arnold will start out at Double-A Midland. pic.twitter.com/7XhRgOfzgt

— Martín Gallegos (@MartinJGallegos) March 23, 2026

A roundup of recent moves:

MOVES
RHP Gunnar Hoglund to IL
RHP Jack Perkins/OF Colby Thomas to LV
LV 2B Cooper Bowman to TB for RHP Gerlin Rosario (unassigned)
LHP Colton Johnson, RHPs Hunter Breault, Tom Reisinger, Drew Conover, Aidan Layton, Dairon DeJesus, OF Cesar Franco releasedhttps://t.co/joKXkyUAPy

— Bill Moriarity – A's Farm (@AthleticsFarm) March 23, 2026

Looking like Ginn got that last roster spot in the bullpen over Perkins. Good or bad?

Only surprise is that Ginn nabbed the final bullpen spot over Perkins, but A's apparently want to keep Perkins stretched out as a starter at Vegas in case he's needed to supplement the rotation… https://t.co/f5Shz8yWYX

— Bill Moriarity – A's Farm (@AthleticsFarm) March 23, 2026

Linda Surovich: Carson Benge wins ROTY

During the offseason, David Stearns announced that Carson Benge would be given a chance to compete for a spot on the major league roster during spring training. A spot cleared on the roster for him with Brandon Nimmo’s departure and Juan Soto moving to left field this season. The stars were aligning for Benge to seize a roster spot and, so far, he has done nothing to cast doubt in anyone’s mind that he belongs on this team. All he has done is hit and it is his elite hit tool that has earned him the status as the team’s top offensive prospect. Of course, the number one prospect in the organization is Nolan McLean who will also undoubtedly be in the running for Rookie of the Year, but I am predicting that all of Benge’s tools, both offensively and defensively, will be enough to take McLean down for the award.

Brian Salvatore: Kodai Senga posts an ERA below 2.50

One of the biggest follies in baseball prediction is presuming past performance will repeat despite recent examples to the contrary. 2023 Kodai Senga was a revelation for the Mets: 2nd place in the NL Rookie of the Year, some down ballot Cy Young votes, and an All-Star selection in his first MLB season.

But then came 2024, and injuries limited Senga to just one regular season appearance and three mostly ineffective postseason appearances. 2025 started off strong, but another injury caused by trying to cover first base led to missed time and, more importantly, Senga never looked the same once he returned. But before the injury, Senga made 13 starts, putting up a 1.74 ERA in 73.2 innings pitched. Yes, his FIP was more than a run higher, so maybe there was some luck present, but Senga looked much more like the rookie than he did in his frustrating late-2024 appearances.

With stronger up the middle defense, a potential six-man rotation, and a coaching staff more aligned with the front office, things seem like they may be working in Senga’s favor. Already this spring, Senga’s velocity is back up to the high 90s, and his ghost fork is diving out of the strike zone like it did in ‘23. If he can stay healthy, Senga is poised to have a monster season.

My initial bold prediction for Senga was a sub-3.00 ERA, but that’s not bold enough. In 2023, he did just that. In 2025, even with a month and a half of general ineffectiveness, his ERA only topped out at 3.02. So let’s be bolder: Kodai Senga’s ERA will be lower than 2.50 for 2026.

Michael Drago: The Mets will have the best OF in baseball by fWAR

Last year’s outfield – despite having added one of the best players in the game over the past winter – was somewhat frustrating. Juan Soto was every bit as good with the bat as advertised, but he did have some horribly unlucky clutch numbers, and was unsurprisingly terrible in right field. Brandon Nimmo, while not quite fully cooked, certainly showed signs of continued skill degradation. And the less said about the team’s production (or lack thereof) in center field, the better.

But of the many things that will hopefully go better for the 2026 Mets, I’m going to bet on the team’s overall outfield production to be one of the biggest improvements. Soto will have an MVP-caliber season (and might even win it if the voters get tired of giving it to Ohtani every year), as his numbers in clutch situations will revert back to the mean while his shift to left field will result in his defense not being TOO detrimental. Luis Robert Jr. will reclaim his offensive skills and be, at a bare minimum, a solid bat after freeing himself from the stink of the White Sox vibes/coaching staff, and that combined with his elite center field defense will make him a significant improvement over what the Mets got out of the position last year (and of course, the potential for him reaching his previous MVP candidate peak remains there). And in right field, Carson Benge – whether it be at the start of the season or shortly thereafter – will establish himself as a long-term piece for the Amazin’s, providing a well-rounded offensive game along with a strong glove in right field (and meanwhile, Mike Tauchman will either be a serviceable placeholder for Benge or a solid bench piece). It will all add up to being one of the stronger outfield units the Mets have had in recent memory, and it will be the envy of just about every other team in baseball.

Allison McCague: Tobias Myers will stick in the Mets’ rotation

One big difference between this current Mets team and the Mets of one year ago is that their starting pitching is remarkably healthy as we tick closer to Opening Day. I am knocking on all of the wood as I type this; as of this writing, Nolan McLean still has to pitch in the World Baseball Classic final and everyone else has a Grapefruit League appearance or two left before the regular season gets underway. But as of now, the Mets have a full six-man rotation’s worth of healthy major league caliber pitchers (Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean, Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, Clay Holmes, David Peterson).

That pushes Tobias Myers, also acquired from the Brewers in the Freddy Peralta trade, to the bullpen as the swingman. But I think it won’t be long before Myers finds himself in the rotation full-time and I predict that once he’s there, he’ll stick there. The obvious reason this prediction may not seem that bold on its face is that, well, pitchers break. Even though the rotation is healthy right now, it may not stay that way and we don’t need to look any further than last year’s team or at any other team around the majors to see how important pitching depth is to an organization. Last year, Griffin Canning was an excellent example of the Mets maximizing on a guy’s talent and transforming him into a cromulent fill-in guy when injuries took their toll until injury took him down as well.

The part that is bold here is that I don’t think it will even necessarily take injuries for Myers to force his way up the depth chart. I think Myers is already the third or fourth best starting pitcher the Mets have and that will crystalize sooner rather than later. Sean Manaea’s velocity has been down this spring. Neither the Mets nor Manaea expressed concern about this and it could be nothing, but if he is ineffective in his first few starts, that is already reason enough to limit his innings and give Myers more of a shot. Holmes and McLean are both adjusting to full season workloads. If you put any stock in spring training performance, Myers has been excellent, posting a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 innings with nine strikeouts and an increased induced vertical break on his fastball. The Mets are making changes with his arm angle, grip, and pitch mix that make one optimistic we could see a huge performance spike from him this year, which is why I think he’s going to earn a spot in the rotation sooner rather than later and not relinquish it once he does.

Linus Lawrence: Brett Baty posts more than 4.5 WAR in 2026

I think Brett Baty is going to be very good. Not great. He’s not going to win an MVP or anything. But he’ll be really, pretty, very good. My evidence? Here are his WAR/162 rates from each of his four big league seasons thus far:

2022: -4.4
2023: -1.1
2024: 0.9
2025: 3.8

Now I’m no statistician, but that looks to me like a fairly reliable incline. If the pattern continues, he’d be due for ~6 WAR this season. That’s a starling number, and one he’s highly unlikely to reach, especially if his playing time comes more from first base and left field than third base this season. But he’s only 26 years old, a former first-round pick and top prospect, and nowhere near finished developing as a ballplayer. With the Mets’ previous homegrown core of Nimmo, Alonso, and McNeil a thing of the past, it’s time for the baby Mets — Baty, Alvarez, and Vientos — to become the new old guard. David Stearns believes in him. Billy Eppler believed in him. Heck, Brodie Van Wagenen believed in him. So should we.

Thomas Henderson: Jorge Polanco is more valuable than Pete Alonso in 2026 by WAR

One of the more controversial moves, according to a lot of the online fan base and the media at large, was the Mets’ decision to let Pete Alonso take his talents to Baltimore, Maryland, and the subsequent choice to replace him with longtime middle infielder Jorge Polanco. So, since it’s bold prediction season after all, what better way to really dive into that than to make a prediction about both of them?

So, my bold prediction is that Jorge Polanco will have a higher fWAR than Pete Alonso.

It sounds kind of outrageous on its front, as Alonso has a huge reputation and Polanco’s reputation is more of a secondary player. However, I think they are closer than one may think, especially with the impending move to first base for the latter.

Since the 2021 season began, Alonso has amassed a 15.8 fWAR, good for 44th in all of baseball, and Polanco comes in a fair bit lower, with 10 fWAR, making him the 92nd best player in baseball over that same stretch. However, I think the defense will be key for this bold prediction.

Even the most ardent Alonso fan will likely admit he’s never been a gold glove defender, but his Outs Above Average numbers paint a dire picture for the Polar Bear. His -9 OAA ranked as 14th worst in all of baseball last year, and I personally find it hard to believe that it will improve, considering his age and, frankly, his already middling defensive skillset.

On the other hand, Polanco has a much better chance to improve on his middling defensive numbers. He was never a truly excellent defender as a (mostly) middle infielder, but there is historical precedent for a player moving to first base and taking to it.

If you look at last year’s OAA first base leader board, there are plenty of first base converts on that list. Ty France, Willson Contreras, Jonathan Arranda and Bryce Harper are all players who moved to first base, and ended up in the top twelve of first basemen according to OAA. That doesn’t even mention Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who went from a truly awful third baseman—we’re talking like -19 OAA in 2019—to a mostly bang average first baseman.
It stands to reason that Jorge Polanco, a below-average to bad middle infielder, can improve his defensive statistics enough to shorten the gap between him and Alonso, according to fWAR. As long as their bats remain similar, and over three of the last four seasons they roughly are, save for a brutal 2024 for Polanco, and it’ll be interesting to see how the defensive side of things comes along for Polanco.

Vasilis Drimalitis: Francisco Alvarez stays healthy and is an NL All-Star

I was initially planning to go intentionally vague with my prediction and say Alvarez will have an “All-Star caliber season”, but that feels like a cop out, so I’m going to go a little bolder than I initially intended. The main point here is that I believe Alvarez finally has the season that Mets fans and the organization have been waiting for. What that means may vary from person-to-person, but first and foremost he stays healthy, puts up elite offensive production for a catcher, and becomes an impact bat, which helps make the bottom half of the Mets’ lineup look considerably better. And let’s put the cherry on top and predict that he’s named to the NL All Star team, for good measure.

Since being ranked the top prospect in all of baseball in 2022, Alvarez has failed to live up to those sky-high expectations. He played 123 games and hit 25 games in 2023, which is the best the Mets have seen from him over the course of a full season. He posted a wRC+ of 96 in 2023, 101 in 2024, and 124 in 2025. Injuries, including many that really boil down to bad luck, have held him back—last year alone, he fractured his left hamate bone during spring training, suffered a UCL sprain in his thumb, and fractured his left pinky after being hit by a pitch during a rehab assignment. That all comes after he tore a ligament in his thumb, costing him two months in 2024. All of that sapped his power, resulting in just 22 home runs combined over the past two seasons.

The second half of his season last year is what really makes me think Alvarez is going to be one of *the guys* for the team. After his return from the minors in the second half of the season, he posted a 157 wRC+ and hit eight homers and nine doubles over 40 games. He slashed .276/.360/.561 and was one of the best hitters on the club. Among all National League catchers with a minimum 100 plate appearances in the second half of the 2025 season, Alvarez had the best wRC+ (157) and the fourth-best fWAR (1.5), proving that, at his best, he can be ranked among the best NL catchers. I expect that to carry over into the year. His luck is also bound to turn around at some point, and this is the year that will happen for Alvarez, keeping him on the field for 110-120 games.

Alvarez’s career-best fWAR is 3.0 in 2025, so I’m going to predict that he surpasses that and finishes top-5 among NL catchers. With the hand and arm injuries behind him, I’ll predict that he also eclipses the 20 home run mark for the second time in his career. Lastly, I’ll say that Alvarez sets a career best mark in wRC+, topping last season.

Lukas Vlahos: The Mets finish 2026 with at least seven top-101 prospects

Per Baseball Prospectus, the Mets currently have seven prospects in the top 101: Nolan McLean, Carson Benge, Jonah Tong, A.J. Ewing, Jacob Reimer, Ryan Clifford, and Will Watson. Three of these are near locks to graduate – McLean, Benge, and Tong – while Clifford has already seen Triple-A and the others are not far behind. It’s within the realm of possibility that five or more of these players graduate.

I’m betting that doesn’t come to pass, that the major league roster will be good enough to prevent all of Ewing, Reimer, Clifford, and Watson from cracking the big leagues for long enough to lose rookie eligibility. Tied to that, I’m also betting that none of them see a significant decline in their prospect stock, nor that any will be traded. The first half of that is born out of conviction in all of these players. The latter half is an estimation that no player worth trading one of these players for will become available at the trade deadline.

That’s only four names though, how do we get the Mets top-101 count back up to seven? Mitch Voit is the obvious addition, even if his post-draft debut was shaky. I’m betting that at least one player from the group of Elian Peña, Eli Serrano (my personal favorite), Jack Wenninger, Jonathan Santucci, and Zach Thornton are in this conversation as well. And beyond that, I’m making a broader bet on Mets development to continue drastically increasing the stock of prospects that are more off the public’s radar to add one final name here. Maybe it’s Antonio Jimenez. Maybe it’s Peter Kussow. It could be Carlos Guzman. Who knows.

There are so many potential paths here and I have such strong conviction in the Mets’ development apparatus at this stage that I am confident they will have at least seven top-101 names once again next offseason.

Here the Yankees are again, about to start a season that must only end one way, lest they let tradition down again.

Here they are, returning nearly every key piece from the 2025 offensive juggernaut that tied for most wins in the American League, wondering if they will regret not changing something. Here they are, as in so many years before, wondering what magic touch will finally turn a very good season into good enough.

Their full 26-man roster is not fully set yet, but the parts that are do look familiar. At least 21 of the 26 players set to make the Opening Day roster were also in the organization at the end of last season. Depending on how they decide to structure their bullpen between now and their opener Wednesday night, that number could go as high as 24.

To the extent that any unit has been overhauled, that bullpen comes closest to qualifying. Both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver signed with the Mets, leaving vacancies at the back end.

But David Bednar, Camilo Doval, Tim Hill, and Fernando Cruz will return to late-inning duties. Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough, also returners, will be the swing men. Brent Headrick, the lefty acquired from Minnesota midway through last season, remains with the major league team and therefore seems to be a finalist for one of the bullpen jobs remaining. So is righty Jake Bird, who struggled after the Yanks plucked him from Colorado at least year’s trade deadline, but has yet to be jettisoned from the MLB spring training roster.

The only potential outside addition to the Opening Day bullpen, therefore, would be Rule 5 pick Cade Winquest – New York’s first such pick in 15 years – who must make the active roster or be returned to the St. Louis Cardinals. Manager Aaron Boone said earlier this week that he has "shown enough to keep himself in the mix and warrant us taking him."

If they do, and they carry Bird and Headrick with him, they will need room for nine relievers – more than a five-man rotation normally allows when teams carry the usual 13 pitchers. But the Yankees will not be using a five-man rotation to start the season, Boone told reporters Sunday. Their schedule is such that they do not need a fifth starter for the first few weeks of the season, so the man projected to be that fifth starter – recent Rookie of the Year Luis Gil – is now in limbo.

Boone said Sunday that the Yankees have not yet decided what to do with Gil. They could use him in a piggyback role with another starter. They could also option him to the minors. Sending Gil to Triple-A could make sense on multiple levels: he could use a low-stakes start or two to ensure the adjustments that served him so well in his last outing can stick. And his spot on the active roster could allow the Yankees to keep all four relievers vying for the final three bullpen spots, allowing them to evaluate them against regular season competition before making any decisions.

That Gil is the odd man out means the Yankees are making room for one of their only big league newcomers, 26-year-old lefty Ryan Weathers. They acquired Weathers from the Marlins in a trade that brought them a high-end talent that multiple organizations have failed to turn into a consistent high-end performer. But Weathers’ stuff is explosive, and despite some rough spring training line scores, the Yankees will give him a chance to make that leap.

Otherwise, the rotation will be totally familiar – but this year, it should get deeper as the year goes on. Gerrit Cole remains on track for a June 1 return, and he will start Tuesday’s spring training finale against the Chicago Cubs in Mesa. Weathers will throw the bulk of the Yankees’ innings in that game, meaning that, for what it's worth, weeks before Cole’s return, Weathers is the one currently taking his turns.

Carlos Rodon entered this spring expected back from his offseason surgery before Cole, and neither he nor the Yankees have suggested anything happened in the last few weeks to alter that timeline. He has thrown multiple sessions of live batting practice, and he will stay in Tampa to continue throwing while the Yankees open their season on the West Coast. Max Fried will serve as the lone ace in the meantime, anchoring a rotation that will also include Weathers, postseason breakout Cam Schlittler, and steady Will Warren.

"The depth that we have pitching, I don’t think we have had that in quite a long time," Aaron Judge said. "If you count the guys that are injured and coming back: Rodon, [Clarke] Schmidt, and Cole. You add those guys, we’re 11, 12 starting pitchers deep. So that’ll be nice."

Also nice, as running things back go, is that three-time MVP Judge will once again be anchoring a familiar outfield so productive that if those in it hit like they did in 2025, "running it back" will leave the Yankees with three of the top 12 outfielders by weighted runs created plus.

One could envision a world in which their lineup gets even better than the one that led the majors in scoring last year. For example, imagine if Giancarlo Stanton could contribute at last year’s .944 OPS pace over more games than the 77 he was healthy enough for last year. Had he had enough at-bats to qualify, that OPS would have made Stanton fifth-best in baseball, trailing only Judge, Shohei Ohtani, George Springer, and Cal Raleigh.

Obviously, a new year also means the Yankees could find themselves with an even less healthy Stanton. They could also find themselves with a healthy, but less productive version of the 36-year-old slugger -- though his four homers and several near-misses in 26 spring training at-bats suggest he is at least entering the season in top form.

Center fielder Trent Grisham does not have the track record of year-over-year production to make a repeat of his 2025 breakout feel like a sure thing. But if for some reason his production dips too far, Jasson Dominguez will be a short drive away in Scranton ready to prove his standout spring training deserved a big league roster spot. And if injuries test their depth, Spencer Jones will be towering behind him, politely waiting his turn.

The only newcomer offensively is Randal Grichuk, the veteran outfielder the Yankees signed in late February as a right-handed platoon option who can spell starters in the corner outfield spots and owns an .819 career OPS against lefties. He will join Amed Rosario, who proved a trustworthy at-bat as a utilityman down the stretch, on the bench with fellow returners Paul Goldschmidt and J.C. Escarra. Goldschmidt will spell Ben Rice, though how much will likely depend on Rice’s production. Like catcher Austin Wells, Rice is still new enough to regular big league duty that he does not qualify as a lock for the same level of production that he provided last year.

Still, either could be even better this year. Perhaps when Anthony Volpe returns from shoulder surgery around May, he will produce better than he did last year, too. Familiarity can occasionally lead to evolution. If it doesn’t, they will have options at the trade deadline.

And of course, things can change quickly in the final days and hours before Opening Day rosters are due. For example, a few innings into their Grapefruit League finale, the Yankees announced they had traded Jorbit Vivas to the Washington Nationals for minor league pitcher Sean Paul Liñan. Vivas was acquired in the deal that sent Trey Sweeney to the Dodgers. The move clears a spot on the Yankees’ 40-man roster. As of late Sunday night, it was not clear how they plan to use it.

I don’t know how to make this post any longer, because for whatever reason, Charter/Spectrum decided to announce this news with a weird tweet-of-an-image with no details. Now, you have to gaze at it too.

Welcome to #BravesVision, @GetSpectrum customers! pic.twitter.com/iZLHu9rlvR

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) March 24, 2026

There are no details, whatsoever. This was probably going to happen at some point this week given that Opening Day happens in just a few days, and I guess today was the day.

So, if you still have cable, and that cable is Spectrum, then I guess now you have access to most Braves games through your cable carrier. If you don’t, and are still at sea about this whole thing, I guess ask in the comments and we’ll try to get you sorted.

Despite this news, we haven’t received word on whether any other Braves have suffered a debilitating injury today.

Whatever happens to the Mets in 2026, this year will be different.

If the season goes well, it will be for different reasons than the last time things went well forSteve Cohen and David Stearns, in 2024. So many emotional engineers of that magical pennant push are gone now. On the field, this team will have different strengths.

If this season goes poorly, it will be for different reasons than those that undermined Cohen and Stearns' plans last year. So many emotional engineers of that…well, whatever it was…are gone now, too. Off the field, this team will be supported by a new collection of clubhouse pillars.

The Mets' season-opening roster is not yet official. Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that the Mets are still weighing their options for final spots on the bench and in the bullpen and acknowledged that he expects the front office is looking at outside options for both. But as of Tuesday morning – or roughly two baseball business days before their roster will be due – their Opening Day roster amounts to a convincing statement of October intent.

No, relying on an inexperienced first baseman and third baseman (Jorge Polanco and Bo Bichette, respectively) does not necessarily scream defense the way one might have expected after Stearns stated "run prevention" as a priority this winter. One could argue that effectively replacing Edwin Diaz with two back-end relievers who struggled at times last year, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, will leave the bullpen in worse shape.

But Tobias Myers will provide a much-needed reliable innings eater. Huascar Brazoban is versatile, if occasionally volatile. Brooks Raley and Luis Garcia have track records of consistency. And whether the Mets choose to give the last spot in that bullpen to lefty Richard Lovelady or bounce back candidate Bryan Hudson, they have veteran lefty A.J. Minter on track to return early in the season.

And after watching a banged-up starting rotation underperform for most of the second half in 2025, this year’s Mets have unmistakable depth.

Trading for Freddy Peralta gave them an ace to pair atop the rotation with Nolan McLean, who was neither as proven nor as ready this time last year. Kodai Senga looks revived, with good health and the velocity that comes with it, so much so that Juan Soto called him the Mets' "ace" just days before camp ended. Clay Holmes looked downright nasty at times in camp and should be better equipped to maintain consistency through a full year in the rotation than he was in his first year back to starting in 2025.

Their depth is so solid that Sean Manaea and his salary of $25 million has been pushed into a piggyback/reliever role after a rough spring in which his velocity dipped to confounding levels. Both he and Myers could provide regular starts should the Mets need them, but they might not: former highly touted prospect Christian Scott, back from Tommy John surgery, might very well be the Mets' first call after an impressive spring. And while beloved savant Jonah Tong looked at times this spring like he could benefit from some more minor league tinkering, he has now been in the majors before, too.

If fragile pitching depth was the Mets' biggest issue in 2025, their second-biggest issue was lineup inconsistencies – that feeling that they could not string together hits when they needed them, despite the third-best OPS in baseball with runners in scoring position.

At worst this lineup will be different, and sometimes shakeups help on their own.

At best, this lineup should be more dynamic, a little less boom or bust thanks to the arrival of Bichette, one of the game’s best contact hitters who has a knack for hitting with runners in scoring position. He should get plenty of chances while hitting behind Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto. And the switch-hitting Polanco had one of the 30 lowest strikeout rates in baseball last year. It is no knock on Pete Alonso or Brandon Nimmo to note their strikeout rates were much higher. Even Marcus Semien, who is coming off one of the worst offensive years of his career and might be seeing his hit tool weathered somewhat by age, is far less prone to strikeouts than those veterans he is replacing.

New center fielder Luis Robert Jr., on the other hand, is a boom-or-bust type. But if he is healthy, he could also be the most explosive offensive threat the Mets have played in center field in quite some time. Their decision to name rookie Carson Benge the Opening Day right fielder provides cover to Robert or Francisco Alvarez should both swing and miss regularly, too: Benge said he hates striking out, and he plays like it. His bat-to-ball skills should ensure the Mets never go more than a batter or two without a real threat to put the ball in play.

And speaking of Alvarez, the Mets might just have a different version of him this year, too: the 24-year-old responded to his up-and-down 2025 with a potent spring. If he unlocks the 30 home run power visible in every spring with the consistency to use it for a full season, this Mets lineup has a chance to be one of the sport’s most formidable.

Their bench, as currently constructed, looks sturdy. Luis Torrens is as reliable a backup catcher as can be. Tyrone Taylor is an elite defensive center fielder who took promising at-bats all spring. Brett Baty looks ready to continue his late 2025 offensive breakout, and his newly honed ability to play around the infield and in the outfield will give him a chance to find regular at-bats. Whether his fellow young infielder Mark Vientos can find them too remains to be seen.

As for the final spot on the bench, the Mets are still making decisions. Mendoza said they will bring infielder Vidal Brujan, the versatile Jared Young, and veteran catcher Ben Rortvedt back to Flushing as they weigh their final options. None are as inspiring an option as outfielder Mike Tauchman had become this spring before tearing his meniscus last week. Perhaps the Mets will look to find a similar veteran bat with power on the always active end-of-spring market.

Regardless of who they choose, the Mets have already made their choice: when a beloved core was not working, Stearns made the moves to remodel it. When the starting rotation fell apart before their eyes, the Mets made a big move for Peralta and what might be the smartest one by holding onto Senga. Perhaps they will find they need more frontline starting pitching as the year goes on. If they do, they have money and prospects to acquire it at the trade deadline.

Either way, the Mets who take the field against Paul Skenes and the Pirates Thursday will represent a new era for the annual World Series hopefuls. The old core wasn’t working. Whether the new faces are the right ones, only time will tell.

Opening Day is upon us.

The march to the World Series begins tonight, when the New York Yankees take on the San Francisco Giants. More teams join the action on Thursday, and by this weekend all 30 MLB teams will have begun the long journey to October.

Unfortunately for some teams, that journey may end quicker than hoped.

Ahead of the start to the 2026 MLB season, let’s take a look at each team’s chances of winning a World Series, by stacking the teams in tiers and ranking their chances from the Colorado Rockies to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Humphrey Bogart tier

30. Colorado Rockies
29. Chicago White Sox
28. Washington Nationals
27. Los Angeles Angels
26. Miami Marlins
25. St. Louis Cardinals

Baseball’s rich history offers many memorable quotes.

We begin our look at all 30 teams with one from Humphrey Bogart, the legendary actor who had this to say about the game. Or, at least attending a game.

“A hotdog at the ballgame beats roast beef at the Ritz.” 

It might be a long season for these six teams, but still, their fans will get to sit in the sun and enjoy those dogs, at least a few times this season.

The true longshots

24. Minnesota Twins
23. Tampa Bay Rays
22. Athletics
21. Arizona Diamondbacks

Each team in this tier could make a run at the playoffs if things break their way. For the Twins, if they can get a healthy Byron Buxton for 162 games, the lineup builds from there. The Rays get to move back home and could put up some impressive numbers in that park, particularly Junior Caminero. The young talent on the Athletics roster could surprise this season, particularly since they get to play their home games in Sutter Health Park again this year, which could lead to massive numbers for Nick Kurtz.

The Diamondbacks need pitching help, but Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo form a rather potent trio.

The Pittsburgh Pirates

20. Pittsburgh Pirates

That’s right, we are putting the Pittsburgh Pirates into a tier of their own.

The Pirates might be the most fascinating team in baseball. In Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh has a bonafide ace. While the Pirates had arguably — or inarguably — the worst offense in baseball a season ago, they added Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, and Ryan O’Hearn in the offseason which should bolster production. And waiting in the wings? Two rising stars in Jhostynxon Garcia and Konnor Griffin.

In fact, other analysts have the Pirates pegged for a massive step forward. MLB.com contributor Travis Sawchik believes Pittsburgh will score 150+ more runs this season than in 2025, while FanGraphs has Pittsburgh slated for 136 more runs.

That kind of improvement in production could see the Pirates finish with a winning record for the first time in a decade, and reach the playoffs as well. In fact, FanGraphs has Pittsburgh finishing at 82-80, making a playoff berth still a longshot, but a possibility.

Something Pirates fans have not seen in a long time.

Playoffs?

19. Cleveland Guardians
18. San Francisco Giants
17. Kansas City Royals
16. Cincinnati Reds
15. San Diego Padres
14. Texas Rangers
13. Houston Astros
12. Baltimore Orioles
11. Detroit Tigers
10. Milwaukee Brewers

These are all teams that should make a playoff push this season, and at least be in the list of “buyers” come MLB trade deadline time.

Leading the way are the Detroit Tigers, led by ace Tarik Skubal, who is seeking his third-straight Cy Young Award. Detroit also added workhorse Framber Valdez, and they sport a bullpen that should earn them some wins over the course of the season. The Orioles are another fun team to watch in this tier, as Baltimore loaded up in the offseason with names such as Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Ryan Helsley, Shane Baz, and Andrew Kittredge. There is still a sense around the Inner Harbor that the Orioles need to add a true ace at the deadline, but a sense of urgency has finally settled in around this organization.

Then there are the Brewers, who finished with the best record in baseball a year ago.

National League Contenders

9. Atlanta Braves
8. Chicago Cubs
7. Philadelphia Phillies

Here are three teams that should not be satisfied with getting in, but should be thinking about winning the league.

The Atlanta Braves are poised for a full year with a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr., on a roster with talent beyond the star outfielder. The Chicago Cubs have a roster filled with young talent and added Alex Bregman in the offseason. Then there are the Philadelphia Phillies, who have won 90 games in each of the past four seasons, look to have a rotation built to win in the fall and into the playoffs, and could have their next big star in Justin Crawford, who made the Opening Day roster.

American League Contenders

6. Boston Red Sox
5. Toronto Blue Jays
4. Seattle Mariners

Red Sox fans frustrated by the organization missing out on both Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso — and seeing Alex Bregman leave town for Chicago — soothed their nerves by watching Roman Anthony belt bombs in the World Baseball Classic. But can this offense hit enough to make a deep run in the fall?

Toronto also saw a key departure, with homegrown star Bo Bichette leaving for the New York Mets. But the Blue Jays brought in Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers, adding those players to a team that was just a few feet away from perhaps winning a World Series. Of course, the news that. Trey Yesavage is starting the year on the IL (with no timetable on Shane Bieber as well) is not the best way to begin a season.

As for the Mariners, who pushed the Blue Jays to Game 7 in the ALCS, Cal Raleigh, Josh Naylor, and Julio Rodriguez are back. And it is just a matter of time until top prospect Colt Emerson joins them.

In a New York Minute

3. New York Mets
2. New York Yankees

Now we get to talk about the two teams in New York.

The Mets made the big splash ahead of 2025, inking Juan Soto to a record-breaking deal in December of 2024. While his slow start changed the narrative a bit, Soto still finished the year with 43 home runs and a slash line of .263/.396/.525.

But when the playoffs began, that expensive roster was watching from home.

That led to even more additions, as the Mets added Bichette, Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, and Devin Williams. While Pete Alonso is now in Baltimore, this is a potent lineup given the additions around Soto and Francisco Lindor. And with Kodai Senga looking strong so far this spring, expectations should be high in Queens.

As for the Yankees, this was a rather unconventional offseason for Brian Cashman and company. Rather than make big moves of his own, Cashman tinkered only marginally with a roster that won 93 games a year ago. Getting both. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon back should help as well, and given the talent already in the building, you can understand Cashman’s approach.

The Los Angeles Dodgers

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Two consecutive titles, a drive for a third, the best player on the planet, and the highest payroll in the game?

Yes, until we see reason to stop believing, the Los Angeles Dodgers are your favorites for another World Series.

This time of year is always a good time. Even when expectations for the White Sox are low, the weather is much better, baseball is returning, and we can have fun predicting how the season will pan out.

We will start with catcher Kyle Teel, 24, whose MLB career got off to a fast start in 2025 (.273/.375/.411, 125 wRC+, 1.9 fWAR in 78 games). Teel provided an unexpectedly large spark last season, as his bat was quite reliable even though he plays a premium position. Unfortunately, Teel suffered a Grade 2 right hamstring strain that will keep him out for the first few weeks of the regular season. However, Teel gives White Sox fans plenty to look forward to. Before the injury, Teel contributed to Team Italy’s surprising success during the World Baseball Classic. Teel was excellent in a small sample size, finishing 4-for-6 with a homer and a double. Both of his extra-base hits came against Team USA pitchers, as he took Nolan McLean deep before doubling against Ryan Yarbrough. Teel looks poised to build on the strong start to his career, and he will barely miss out on leading the White Sox in WAR. If not for his injury, I would have picked him to lead the team.

Speaking of the team leader in WAR, that will be shortstop Colson Montgomery, 24, who also kicked off his career with a bang in 2025 (.239/.311/.529, 129 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR in 71 games). Prior to Montgomery’s promotion, he was not exactly crushing it in Triple-A Charlotte, but he turned up the volume immediately at the highest level. Despite playing in less than half a season’s worth of games, Montgomery launched 21 homers, narrowly finishing behind Lenyn Sosa (22) for the team lead.

Munetaka Murakami, 26, will also provide a lot of pop with his bat. Murakami has made a joke of NPB pitching. By season, his wRC+ marks were as follows from 2021 through 2025: 166, 225, 154, 156, and 211. He played only 56 games in 2025 due to an oblique injury. The White Sox signed Murakami to a two-year, $34 million contract over the offseason, which was a lower price than most expected him to command. The primary concerns about his game are that many are bearish on his ability to hit high velocity, avoid strikeouts, and provide decent defense. Murakami will also primarily play first base, a less premium position than third base, where he mainly played in NPB. However, he will launch plenty of homers and get on base enough to be a valuable part of the White Sox lineup.

On the pitching side, Shane Smith, 25, will lead the way in the starting rotation. Smith, a Rule 5 draft pick, posted a 3.81 ERA and a 4.10 FIP in 146 1/3 innings in 2025, resulting in 2.2 fWAR. That total was enough to lead the 2025 White Sox pitching staff, and he will repeat that feat in 2026.

As for the bullpen, Grant Taylor, 23, will take a large step forward. Taylor had an unusual line in 2025 (4.91 ERA, 1.42 FIP in 36 2/3 innings), resulting in 1.7 fWAR, which is based heavily on FIP. Taylor averaged 13.25 strikeouts per nine innings, a sky-high total. At the same time, he fell victim to some tough luck, as opposing hitters had a .420 BABIP. Although Taylor generated many whiffs, when he was not doing that, hitters often found ways to reach base. In 2026, Taylor will allow less sharp contact, have better luck on balls in play, and maintain a high strikeout rate to assert himself as one of MLB’s top relievers.

In terms of the overall team, the White Sox will improve by 10 games, which would normally be fantastic, but in this case, it only gets them to 70-92. The South Siders will get off to a decent start, taking advantage of a soft April schedule to finish the month 15-16. With nobody in the AL Central racing out of the starting blocks, some fans will fantasize about postseason possibilities. However, reality will set in, and May will open with a rough trip to San Diego, which will cause the White Sox to fall out of contention quickly.

In the second half of the season, although playoff hopes will be long gone, pitchers Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith will make positive impressions at the start of their MLB careers. In addition, Braden Montgomery will earn a September call-up and post a 110 wRC+ during his first month against MLB pitching.

Around the league, the Mariners broke their 23-season streak without winning the AL West when they won the division in 2025. This year, they will make it back-to-back division titles, and Julio Rodríguez will emerge as a dark-horse MVP contender.

In a highly competitive AL East race, the Yankees will emerge from the pack, holding off strong Red Sox and Blue Jays squads to earn the top seed.

Last year, the Tigers blew a 99.9% chance of winning the AL Central as their cold September coincided with a Cleveland hot streak. This time, the Tigers will avoid blowing a late lead and will win their first division title since 2014. The Royals will sneak in as the final Wild Card team, right behind Boston and Toronto.

In the NL, spearheaded by the offseason pickup of catcher Seby Zavala, the Dodgers will win the West again. Elsewhere in the division, the Giants will exceed expectations and make the postseason for the first time since their excellent 2021 season.

In the East, the Mets will slay some demons by winning their first division title since 2015. Meanwhile, after being baseball’s most disappointing team in 2025, the Braves will earn a Wild Card spot, and they will be joined by the rival Phillies.

Finally, the North Siders will take the Central’s only playoff spot by taking full advantage of an unremarkable division.

The Dodgers will handily defeat the Mets in the NLCS to advance to the World Series and earn an opportunity to pull off a three-peat. On the other side, the ALCS will be highly competitive, with the Mariners repeatedly trading blows with the Yankees. However, Bryan Woo will lead a pitching staff that proves to be too much for the Yankees’ lineup to overcome.

That will set up an epic battle between two teams with very different histories. On one hand, the Dodgers have won 12 of the last 13 NL West titles, with the one “loss” occurring during a 106-56 season in which San Francisco went 107-55. On top of that, the Dodgers will be looking to win their third consecutive World Series and their fourth in the last seven years. By contrast, the Mariners have won only four division titles ever, and they have never advanced to the World Series. Of course, the Dodgers will be favored, and nearly everyone will expect them to win. In a twist of fate, however, the Mariners will come out on top. Seattle’s pitching staff will continue its run of dominance, and with Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, and Cal Raleigh leading the way, the Mariners will outpace the powerhouse Dodgers to win their first World Series.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Brewers fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

We’re back with another Brewers Reacts Survey, and in this week’s edition, we’re asking fans which young pitcher they’re most excited to see this season!

The Brewers have become known as a sort of pitching factory, developing young arms into solid rotation pieces. The latest wave of pitchers looking to join that group includes several top prospects, including Robert Gasser (team No. 17), Kyle Harrison (former top 100 prospect), Logan Henderson (team No. 7), and Brandon Sproat (team No. 5/MLB No. 100).

Gasser, 26, debuted for the Brewers back in 2024 with a great start, pitching to a 2.57 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 28 innings in five starts before going down with an arm injury that kept him out until late in 2025. He made a pair of starts late last year, with six runs allowed (only two earned) over 5 2/3 innings. He had a rough spring training up to his last outing on Saturday against the Padres, when he went six scoreless frames with seven strikeouts. Still, he finished with a 5.11 spring ERA over 12 1/3 innings.

Harrison, 24, debuted in 2023 with the Giants but hasn’t yet found much success in the majors, with a 4.39 ERA and 191 strikeouts over 194 2/3 innings. The former third-round pick came over to the Brewers in the Caleb Durbin trade this offseason and has flashed a new kick-change in the spring, albeit with limited box score success (7.45 ERA over 9 2/3 innings, but 15 strikeouts).

Henderson, 24, had a similar path to Gasser, debuting in 2025 with five great outings, sporting a 1.78 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 25 1/3 innings. He went back to the minors and pitched to a solid 3.59 ERA with 87 strikeouts over 77 2/3 innings before going down with an arm injury. He’s continued to deal with the injury into the spring (though he did allow just one run with four strikeouts over six innings).

Lastly, Sproat, 25, is the highest-ranked arm in this group. Acquired in the Freddy Peralta trade with the Mets, Sproat pitched to a 4.24 ERA with 113 strikeouts in 121 innings at Triple-A last year. He also had a quick cup of coffee with the big league squad, pitching to a 4.79 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 20 2/3 innings. He made three appearances this spring, allowing five runs over nine innings with 10 strikeouts.

Note: Harrison and Sproat are both in the rotation to begin the season, while Gasser and Henderson will both start the year at Triple-A Nashville.

So, who are you most looking forward to seeing this season? Weigh in below and check back for results later this week!

Hey, you. Yes, you. Are you a lurker who’s been watching Camden Chat from afar, waiting for the right chance to jump in and introduce yourself, only you haven’t found your chance? Have you been here for a little while but you’re not quite sure if anyone has noticed?

Here is the one place each year where we are all on equal footing, brand new people and lurkers and the most recognizable veteran community members: The annual Camden Chat introductions.

We can all hope that the fun will find its way back into Birdland in the 2026 season. Last year’s dismal Orioles performance only accelerated the bad vibes that started to sink in for the second half of the 2024 season. The 101-game winners from three years ago might as well be an eternity now.

Have the Orioles done enough to do this? It’s a totally rebuilt rotation compared to last Opening Day, so that’s something. They’ve made multiple offseason moves aimed at improving on last year’s home run power outage. Breaking the streak of postseason futility this year would sure be nice.

If you’re brand new, make sure to go to the upper right of the page to sign up for an SB Nation account first, then come back here and join our site down below in the comments section. You can use your new account to chat on any team site that you like. If you’re going to visit an Orioles opponent, be a polite visitor.

Once you’re set up, head down to the comments to tell us a bit about yourself. Then, next time you come back, just act like you’ve been here forever. As long as you correctly remember to use the reply button to respond to a specific comment when you are talking to someone else, no one will even notice that you’re new. That’s all there is to it.

You’re nice enough to read this post, so I bet you’re already nice enough to follow the rules without my telling them to you. Just so we’re all clear, though, you can find SB Nation’s Community Guidelines here. Please be excellent to each other as much as you are able, even if you have just read the dumbest comment you have ever seen on the Internet.

Now that that’s out of the way, we would all like to know about you, not in a creepy way, but in the way that it’s fun to get to know your fellow fans.

Where are you from? Where are you now? How did you become an Orioles fan? Who’s your favorite Oriole of the present, if you have one right now? Who’s your favorite Oriole of all time? What’s the thing you’re most excited about for the 2026 Orioles season?

If you’re still feeling loquacious, and it’s OK if you’re not, here are some more: Why did you choose your screen name? What do you do when you’re not watching baseball? Do you have a favorite story that everyone else in your life is sick of hearing but you want the chance to tell it to someone new? Here’s your place.

As for me, I am Mark. I am a Maryland lifer and I probably always will be, although these days I’m closer to the Washington beltway than the Baltimore beltway. In the comments, you’ll see me show up as Eat More Esskay, which has turned into more of a retro ironic name than I ever could have imagined when I picked it a long time ago. The thing that made me start commenting on Camden Chat is that I wrote a limerick in response to Mark Teixeira signing with the Yankees.

Thanks to my parents, I have been an Orioles fan since before I was even born. They attended Game 2 of the 1983 World Series, and so did I, although I had a bit of an obstructed view seat: My mom was eight months pregnant at that time. I have loved the Orioles for as long as I can remember. Most of those years have not been very good for O’s fans, but I did meet my wife thanks to both of us being Orioles fans, so, I think that helps balance out the scales a bit.

My favorite Oriole of all time is Cal Ripken Jr. The 2131 game where The Streak became a record is the coolest thing to happen to the team in my whole life. Maybe they’ll win the World Series some day and I can have a different answer. I have decided for this year that I will not curse any player by proclaiming him to be my favorite current Oriole.

Something you may not know about me is that I met my wife thanks to Camden Chat. She was (and still is) a commenter around here and ten years ago when my friend and fellow CCer Stacey organized a meetup at an Orioles game, I ended up sitting next to my future spouse. This was an oppressively hot day and I feel like I looked even more dorky than usual, but lucky for me she likes nerds. A few days later she emailed me and asked if I wanted to go to a game with her and I said yes. She wasn’t sure that I knew it was a date until like the fourth inning. I always knew. And now here we are.

The game where we met was not a particularly good one. Ryan Flaherty pitched in a blowout loss where the offense inexplicably stunk against Mike Fiers. There have been some great Orioles moments in the time of our relationship, including the true story that they went on a ten-game winning streak immediately after we got married. On the other hand, the ten year anniversary of when we met is coming up in August and the team has not won a postseason game in that time. That’s a long drought.

So, that’s me. Who are you? If you’re a longtime Camden Chat commenter, thank you for having stuck with us through so many bad seasons until we got back to the fun times that, hopefully, will resume this year. If you’re brand new, welcome to the party. I hope that CCers old and new will have some more great Orioles moments to talk about as this season goes along.