We have had a full offseason to complain about the Guardians – let’s be as optimistic as we can reasonably be.

I will list below the hitters I would like to see make the Guardians’ Opening Day roster and present the best case I can for them being part of a division-winning, World Series-contending team, and also include others who will hopefully play a role, also:

Bo Naylor – He turns out to have turned a corner and puts up something similar to his last 100 plate appearances in 2025: 105 wRC+, 22.1/6.7 K/BB%. His game-calling and blocking abilities improve and his pitch-framing gets back to 2024 levels.

Austin Hedges – His last 50 plate appearances in 2025 are a miraculous turnaround and he repeats the 82 wRC+ he put up for that magical six weeks, while continuing to be a defensive wizard.

David Fry – He is what he has been so far in his career, and returns to being able to play catcher, first base, right field and third base as needed. 110 wRC+, 26/8.9 K/BB% and a 128 wRC+ against LHP.

Kyle Manzardo – He gets to his 80th percentile ZiPS projections, having settled into an established role as a major leaguer: 130 wRC+ with a .267/.346/.497 slashline, finding some of the solid success he had against LHP in the minors, and he’s playable in about 200 innings at first base.

CJ Kayfus – Kayfus in his last month of playing time put up a 131 wRC+ with a 23/9.8 K/BB%. He finds a midway point between that and his overall number of 96 wRC+, which would be roughly 113 wRC+. He also hits LHP well, as he did in the minors, and plays a good defensive first base.

Brayan Rocchio – From September through the end of the playoffs, Rocchio put up a 100 wRC+ with a very sustainable 19/9 K/BB%. It turns out that is sticky and he manages to return to his gold glove form at shortstop from 2024.

Travis Bazzana – It turns out Bazzana comes back locked in and ready to get to his 80th percentile ZiPS projection while playing a solid second base, and gets his shot starting in early May: 107 wRC+ with a .246/.348/.403 slashline.

Gabriel Arias – For about his first 200 plate appearances in 2025, Arias put up a 90 wRC+ while playing good defense. He repeats that in a part-time role at second, short, third and even outfield on an emergency basis. AND the team recognizes that he isn’t a platoon bat and doesn’t just try to play him vs. lefties.

Jose Ramirez – Jose gives us one last glimpse of his absolute peak, getting back to his 2020 level for a season: 167 wRC+, .292/.387/.607, getting a 40/40/40 season, playing the elite third base he did from June-September, and securing that elusive MVP

Steven Kwan – Kwan is healthy and, so, able to get to his 80th percentile ZiPS projections: 122 wRC+ with a .311/.377/.419 slashline, while securing his fourth-straight gold glove in left field.

Nolan Jones – Jones turns out to have been dealing with a back issue last season that has resolved itself this offseason. That and his work at Driveline help him get to his 80th percentile ZiPS projection: 116 wRC+ and a .268/.351/.431 slashline. He also continues to play a solid centerfield.

Chase DeLauter – DeLauter is healthy enough to play 100 games in right field and center field and 20 or so at DH and manages to do fulfill on his minor league promise, getting to his 80th percentile ZiPS projections: 116 wRC+ with a .272/.338/.448 slashline.

Stuart Fairchild – Fairchild moves past his injury-plagued 2024-2025 and returns to more of his early career form, while playing a solid centerfield, putting up a 121 wRC+ against LHP.

Other names to monitor:
Daniel Schneemann – 80th percentile ZiPS projections while playing good defense all around the field: 104 wRC+, .248/.324/.425.
Angel Martinez – His career 121 wRC+ vs. LHP turns out to be sustainable and he takes big steps forward as an outfield defender (or at second base, if they try that).
George Valera – His performance last season was real and repeatable, and an offseason of additional rest allows him to be average in right field and hit RHP as a platoon there and at DH where needed to help manage the load for DeLauter, Manzardo and Kayfus: 113 wRC+, 27.1/14.6 K/BB%.
Juan Brito – Hits his 80th percentile ZiPS projections while playing an adequate second base and moving effectively to a bench role at 1B/RF/2B/3B, mostly against LHP which he has crushed in the minors: 107 wRC+, .249/.337/.417.
Johnathan Rodriguez – If Fry isn’t the real deal, Rodriguez gets DH opportunities and hits his OOPSY projection: 109 wRC+, 27.5/8.2 K/BB%, with a 120 wRC+ vs. LHP. The team doesn’t allow him to touch outfield grass.

The Rose-Colored Glasses Lineup:
1. Kwan LF – 122 wRC+
2. DeLauter RF – 116 wRC+
3. Jose 3B – 167 wRC+
4. Manzardo DH – 130 wRC+
5. Kayfus 1B – 113 wRC+
6. Jones CF – 116 wRC+
7. Bo C – 105 wRC+
8. Bazzana 2B – 107 wRC+
9. Rocchio SS – 100 wRC+

Bench:
Fry – 110 wRC+ (121 wRC+ vs. LHP)
Fairchild – 121 wRC+ vs. LHP
Arias – 90 wRC+
Hedges – 82 wRC+

(Valera 113 wRC+, Schneemann 104 wRC+, Martinez 121 wRC+ vs. LHP, Brito 107 wRC+, and Rodriguez 109 wRC+).

The Cleveland front office and Grant Fink get the last laugh, and we fans are happily eating crow while watching this team make a playoff run.

So, what do you think? Which of these optimistic projections is the least realistic (ok, it’s Hedges. Which is second-place?). Which of these optimistic projections isn’t optimistic enough? Let us know in the comments below.

The Brewers put together a historical season in 2025. They won a franchise-record 97 games and broke their postseason losing streak, advancing to the NLCS for the first time since 2018. Though the postseason run ended with a thud, it was an overall positive year for the team. With the full core of the team set to return in 2026, the Brewers could still contend without significant additions in the offseason. However, the moves they did make are ones that would be expected more of a rebuilding team, not one that led the league.

The first significant move of the offseason came on December 14, when they traded Isaac Collins and Nick Mears to the Royals for Ángel Zerpa. It felt like a strange trade considering the role both players had in 2025. Collins put together a strong rookie season, and Mears was one of the most reliable relievers out of the bullpen.

Looking deeper into the trade, it did make sense. The Brewers had an outfield jam, with five players (Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins, Garrett Mitchell, and Collins) competing for three starting spots. Even with a rotation, it would be difficult to get more than four outfielders regular playing time. Collins had also slumped toward the end of the season, so there was concern that he wouldn’t be able to repeat his performance. Also, Mears was out of minor league options and had a reasonable, but increasing, salary. The trade cleared the outfield jam and brought in another strong reliever that has some flexibility with a minor league option.

The next big move came on January 21, when they traded Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers to the Mets for Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat. This move hurt since the Brewers traded their strongest starter away but wasn’t unexpected. With Peralta just one year from free agency, he joined the list of pitchers (such as Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams) who were traded before their walk year.

The more surprising inclusion was Myers, who had an up-and-down two years for the Brewers. After arguably leading the rotation in 2024, he slumped following an injury in 2025 and spent most of the season in the minors. However, toward the end of the season he was showing signs of a rebound. The move still made sense, though. The Brewers have a long list of pitchers for their starting rotation, and Myers would have had a difficult time getting back into the rotation.

The return for the trade was a good one. Williams and Sproat are both near major league ready and could impact the team as soon as this season. Williams doesn’t have a specific spot set but has the ability to play in the infield or outfield. As for Sproat, he might not make the rotation out of spring training but should get some chances during the season. Overall, the trade was one that would hurt in the short term but should improve the team beyond 2026.

The last big trade of the offseason is the one that really shocked everyone. On Monday, with pitchers and catchers set to report in just two days, the Brewers traded Caleb Durbin to the Red Sox. He was the main piece in a trade package that also included Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler, and their Competitive Balance B draft pick (No. 67 overall). In return, they got Kyle Harrison, Shane Drohan, and David Hamilton.

Unlike the other trades, Durbin was arguably going to be a major contributor on the Brewers for the next several years. He’s coming off of an excellent rookie season that included a third-place finish in the NL Rookie of the Year vote. He’s a young player with six years of team control remaining. For the Brewers, this is the type of player they have built around and don’t trade easily. If the Brewers got a player back who had a stronger track record and immediately improved the team, that would have made more sense. Instead, they continued to add on to their minor league system.

That doesn’t mean the players the Brewers got in return aren’t good players. They can all factor into the Brewers’ plans immediately and in the future. Harrison immediately slotted into the Brewers’ starting pitcher depth chart, and Hamilton could take over at third. It’s a move that would be more expected of a rebuilding team, though. That’s compounded by the Brewers’ uncertain plan for third base. Based on a comment from Murphy yesterday, they have a handful of players who will compete for the starting position.

What also adds on to the decision are the prospects that are almost major league ready. Jesús Made, the top prospect in the system and a consensus top 10 player on any prospect list, is getting a taste of major league play this spring in camp. He won’t make the team this spring and likely not this season but could be ready as soon as next year. In addition to him, the Brewers next three top-ranked prospects (Luis Peña, Williams, Cooper Pratt) are all infielders, and they also have a couple of other potential third baseman (Andrew Fischer, Luke Adams) a little further down the list. With significant depth building in the minors, a move to alleviate the potential logjam was expected, but not this season. All those players still need more time in the minors, and the Durbin trade creates a potential hole for a year or two.

The one other aspect that adds on to all of this is the Brewers’ lack of activity in the free agent market. It’s not unexpected for the Brewers to not make a big splash with a free agent. Considering that they had a strong roster after 2025, a big addition wasn’t necessarily needed but would have been welcomed. With their TV deal changing and the regular push to keep costs down, this wasn’t the season for them to make a major signing. That’s what they stuck to all season. They only made two signings in free agency this offseason: outfielder Akil Baddoo and catcher Gary Sánchez. Both were on modest contracts that only added minimal amounts to the payroll. (Brandon Woodruff technically counts as a free-agent signing, but he fits in more as a returning player.)

The result of the offseason is the Brewers enter camp with a few of their best players no longer on the roster. They have more depth to build the team back up, and some of those players will impact the team this season. They have regularly defied expectations so it’s foolish to think they can’t do it again. Matt Arnold and Pat Murphy have built an organization that can get the best out of whoever they bring in. After an unconventional offseason for a team that led the league last season, they will have to show they can do it again.

Down a rabbit hole of things that didn’t happen, the Red Sox apparently made several attempts to acquire Zach Neto from the Angels before pivoting and trading with the Brewers for Caleb Durbin. This was confirmed by Sean McAdam earlier this week, and from there, Tyler Milliken was asking the right question.

The Red Sox took several tries at acquiring shortstop Zach Neto but the Angels had set a very high bar for him, per @Sean_McAdam.

That’s the type of deal that would’ve created some serious buzz… wonder if they would’ve moved him off of shortstop. pic.twitter.com/0xB0t9ESXN

— Tyler Milliken (@tylermilliken_) February 9, 2026

Neto is one of the best defensive shortstops in the games, posting a +11 and +13 Defensive Runs Saved from the position the last two seasons. The only reason you trade for a guy like that is to put him at shortstop, which means that in that scenario, Trevor Story gets moved back to second base and Marcelo Mayer plays third.

This is intriguing because from just last winter we already know the Red Sox have no problem acquiring a guy for a position they already seem to have filled. While Story’s defense at short certainly isn’t bad, it is declining and at some point they may need to make a move.

Looking at things from a different angle, this is also where Marcelo Mayer comes into the conversation. Is he a shortstop long-term? If that’s the plan, shouldn’t he be there sooner rather than later? Do the Red Sox not want to make the move for now because Mayer’s been so injury prone he hasn’t played 100 games in a season in his career yet?

At some point, the Red Sox are going to have to decide if Mayer’s a shortstop or not, and if the answer to that question is yes, it creates a very tricky timetable with Trevor Story. Even though the Red Sox didn’t land Neto, their willingness to do so suggest they may also have a willingness to move Story off shortstop.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to improve their offense, and they might have a candidate in Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Nick Castellanos.

The Athletic insider Matt Gelb is reporting that Castellanos will either be traded or released by the Phillies during Spring Training.

“Photos line the hallway that leads from the lobby to the Phillies’ clubhouse at BayCare Ballpark and, on Wednesday, there was a gap between the photos of Trea Turner and Alec Bohm. There used to be one of Nick Castellanos there. He is still on the Phillies’ roster, but there is no locker in the clubhouse for him. As the Phillies continue their quest to save a few million dollars, they have told Castellanos not to report to the team’s complex this week, league sources said,” Gelb wrote.

“A Castellanos resolution — either through a trade or release — is expected in the next two days.”

Castellanos, who turns 34 next month, it’s set to make $20 million on the final year of his deal. He had a .250 batting average in 2025 with 17 home runs and 72 runs batted in, but those numbers won’t cut it with his price tag.

If the Phillies were willing to pay the Pirates a good chunk of his 2026 salary, would Pittsburgh be willing to throw in a prospect in a trade? The Pirates have been looking to get some juice for the offense this offseason and Castellanos could provide that for the team.

The Pirates have gone out of their way to add Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, Jake Mangum and Marcell Ozuna, giving them more options to work with. In addition to Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds, the Pirates should have a strong outfield this season.

The reason against a Castellanos trade would be how crowded the team is with all of the new additions. Cruz is set to play center field, while Reynolds likely ends up in right. Ozuna can fill in at left field and O’Hearn could be the designated hitter.

If the Pirates wanted to move O’Hearn to first base, Castellanos could add to the team as a possible designated hitter, but it isn’t a need at this point in time. There’s a better chance other teams would pay more for Castellanos given the need.

What do you think BD community? Should the Pirates trade for Castellanos? Chime off in the comments section below.

Yesterday, Paul Toboni finally made a move in the rotation. Bringing in Miles Mikolas on a one-year $2.25 million deal is not exactly what fans were dreaming of, but it is a move. With Mikolas highly likely to be in the rotation, I wanted to take a look at what the Nats pitching staff could look like entering 2026.

RHP Miles Mikolas and the Nationals are reportedly in agreement on a contract. pic.twitter.com/OvTHDDCkR8

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) February 11, 2026

While the rotation is full of uncertainty, I do think there are three locks. Those are free agent signings Foster Griffin and Miles Mikolas. The other is Cade Cavalli, who is the highest upside arm on the team. It will be an open competition for the last two spots. I think Jake Irvin will take one of them, but after how he performed last season, he is not a lock.

Brad Lord is an interesting case. He had an impressive rookie season last year, but was more effective in a relief role. In his 19 starts, Lord posted a 4.99 ERA. For 2025 Nats standards, that is not awful, but it is still not good. However, in his 29 relief outings, Lord posted a 2.79 ERA. With Lord’s increased velocity in the ‘pen and his limited pitch mix, a bullpen role could be a better fit. Still, Lord may be one of the five best guys for the Nats in the rotation.

The Nats are short on proven commodities, but they have plenty of options. Guys like Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker, Andrew Alvarez and even waiver claim Ken Waldichuk could get a shot to compete for rotation spots. The quality may not be great, but the Nats have more bodies than they have had in the past.

Projecting the arms who could make up the Nationals' rotation in 2026:

Cade Cavalli
Brad Lord
Miles Mikolas
Josiah Gray
Jake Irvin

Also receiving votes:
Foster Griffin
Mitchell Parker
Ken Waldichuk
Andrew Alvarez
Riley Cornelio

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) February 11, 2026

Gray is an interesting case as well. He has missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John Surgery. However, he made the All-Star game and posted a sub-4 ERA the last time he pitched a full season in 2023. Even in that season though, we saw Gray’s flaws and that sub-4 ERA was pretty lucky based on the underlying numbers. If his stuff looks good this spring, he should get a spot in the rotation though.

There are also a couple of guys on the mend that could play a role later this season. The Nats have already placed Trevor Williams and DJ Herz on the 60-day IL. This is not much of a surprise, as both are recovering from elbow surgeries. 

Herz is a guy I am particularly intrigued by though. He was super promising in 2024, and was a popular breakout candidate for 2025. However, he looked bad in Spring Training last year and then it was revealed that he needed Tommy John Surgery. If Herz can come back and be the guy he was in 2024, he will be a massive piece of the Nats rotation.

Herz does have some command concerns, so there is a chance the Nats just decide to let him rip in the bullpen. Luis Perales is in a similar boat, but he is further removed from his Tommy John. He should start the season in the Minors, but could play a role, either in the rotation or the bullpen.

The biggest X-factor in the Nats rotation though is Cade Cavalli. On paper, Cavalli will be the Nats ace. He showed major promise down the stretch last season. His stuff looked very sharp, and his fastball averaged 97. 

Cade Cavalli first major league win comes against the Phillies

pic.twitter.com/R2uDIfgmtm

— Kev (@klwoodjr) August 16, 2025

Manager Blake Butera has already praised Cavalli’s mound presence. For the first time in a while, Cavalli will be entering a season with no health restrictions. He is ready to rock and roll. The 2020 first round pick is finally going to be able to be a part of the rotation on a full time basis. 

I also think he is going to really be helped by the Nats new pitching philosophy. He has the stuff, but his execution and sequencing could use some work. Hopefully, new pitching coach Simon Mathews can help him out with that.

For the guys who do not make the rotation, they could still make an impact as long relief options. Paul Toboni and Blake Butera do not seem married to the idea of having a set five man rotation where the goal is for these guys to go at least five innings every time. That philosophy could make the roles of Mitchell Parker or Andrew Alvarez important.

Alvarez showed some nice things down the stretch. He does not have amazing stuff, but he has a deep mix and can throw any pitch in any count. Alvarez also has a strong feel for spin and executes well. He is a guy who can fool lineups for one or two turns, but does not have the stuff to face hitters a third time. The Nats new regime will have a use for a guy like that.

There are still more questions than answers on this Nats pitching staff, but the pickup of Mikolas does provide some clarity. The Nats now have a guy they will be confident in to take the ball every fifth day and give them some length. I also wonder if the Mikolas pickup makes Irvin a bit redundant. Last year, he was the innings eater with not great stuff. If he comes out throwing 90-92 MPH again this spring, he could be in trouble.

There is competition all across this roster. For a team that is not very good, I like that. If we can find one or two unexpected breakout guys who could be a part of the next good Nats team, that would be a win. Also, so much can change between now and even the start of the season. Buckle up ladies and gentleman, because baseball is here.

Spring training is around the corner, and we've already got projected win totals for all 30 teams.

It's a simple market. If you think a team is projected for too many wins, take the Under. If you're more bullish on, say, the Cincinnati Reds than the books are, hammer the Over.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are the only team projected to win more than 100 games, at 102.5. Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies are on the low end of the spectrum, with a projected total of 52.5.

No team won more than the Milwaukee Brewers' 97 last season, while the Rockies indeed came in Under even this year's rock-bottom total with just 43 victories. The Brewers' total is set at 84.5 after trading ace Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets.

Here’s our initial look at the MLB odds for projected wins in the 2026 regular season.

2026 National League win total odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Popular MLB futures markets

• MLB World Series odds
• MLB Cy Young odds
• MLB Rookie of the Year odds
• MLB playoff odds
• MLB HR title odds

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2026 American League win total odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings.

How to bet MLB season win totals

Season win totals are pretty straightforward: you're betting on how many wins a team will have that regular season.

Oddsmakers set a projected number of wins for each team — based on past success, returning personnel, and strength of schedule — and offer Over/Under betting options, allowing you to wager on if a team will exceed that win total (Over) or fall short of it (Under). This total does not include postseason games.

On top of the season win total itself, oddsmakers set an assigned cost to the Over and Under bets — also known as vig or juice — depending on the implied probability of the team winning more or less than that total.

For example, the Blue Jays are projected to win 91.5 games but oddsmakers felt like there was a better chance of them winning fewer than 92 games instead of winning 92+ games. Therefore, they set the Jays with a win total of 91.5 but increased the vig on the UNDER to -115 (bet $115 to win $100) and decreased the vig on the OVER to -105 (bet $105 to win $100).

• OVER 91.5 wins (-105)
• UNDER 91.5 wins (-115)

Season win totals are considered futures betting odds and sportsbooks will take action on season win totals from the time they post the odds until the start of the season. Futures bets are then graded at the end of the season when all results are final.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

MLB teams from across the country have descended on Arizona and Florida to open their Spring Training camps for the 2026 season. Those camps will have a very different look them than most years because players from the MLB teams will leave to join teams representing their countries for the World Baseball Classic. While the level of competition and premier matchups like Mike Trout versus Shohei Ohtani gets fans excited to watch the games there is always an uneasy feeling until the players return to their MLB clubs. This feeling is caused by knowing an injury that could end a player’s season could happen, and if it did, it could derail the season for an MLB team. Gaslamp Ball asked its readers how they feel about Padres players competing in the WBC.

Padres News:

• Since the Padres started Spring Training, they have been watching free agent targets sign with other teams. Justin Verlander signed with the Detroit Tigers and Chris Bassitt signed with the Baltimore Orioles. There have been rumors San Diego is interested in signing Zac Gallen, but the price may be too high. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball thinks the Padres should look at a reunion with Ty France.
• In his scrum with members of the media on Wednesday, Padres manager Craig Stammen stated the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation are open for competition. He admitted that Randy Vasquez has the inside track on the No. 4 starter spot, but nothing is set yet outside of Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta and Michael King.
• There was speculation at the start of the offseason that Mason Miller might return to the rotation. That speculation was dismissed when the Padres announced he would not move from the bullpen. It was assumed then that Miller would be the closer. In the event Padres fans dreamed of a Miller start at some point this season, it was made clear Wednesday that Miller is the closer.
• Sung-Mun Song was one of the key free agent acquisitions for the Padres this offseason and he has already suffered his first injury. Song suffered a rib injury and will miss some time in Spring Training but should be back for the regular season. Song will be playing various roles throughout the season according to Stammen.
• Bryan Hoeing returns to the mound for the 2026 season after missing significant time with injury during the 2025 season. He told Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune “it was not a fun year.” Hoeing will compete for one  of very few spots in the Padres bullpen, but has potential to be a starter should the Padres want to explore that as an option.

Baseball News:

• New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor had hamate surgery, and the Mets are optimistic he will be able to return by Opening Day.
• Free agent reliever Liam Hendriks and the Minnesota Twins agreed to a minor league deal.
• Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Corbin Carroll underwent hamate surgery and will miss the World Baseball Classic.
• The Milwaukee Brewers brought back a familiar face when they agreed to a one-year deal with Gary Sanchez.
• Free agent pitcher Chris Bassitt and the Baltimore Orioles agreed to a one-year, $18.5 million deal, Wednesday.

Tyler Callihan was playing the best baseball of his career in early 2025. After reaching AAA Louisville for a cameo at the end of 2024 (and raking during it), he began 2025 at the highest level of the minors and picked up right where he’d left off.

He mashed to the tune of .303/.410/.528 across 106 PA, showing the gap power and patience at the plate that have been his calling cards (when healthy) all through his pro career to date. That earned him a call-up to the Cincinnati Reds, one that went awry almost immediately when he dove for a ball in the outfield corner and broke his arm in two to nine places, ending his season.

Several surgeries later, Callihan is reportedly back in action and ready to compete again for a spot on the Reds roster, and will do so in 2025 in his age-26 season after being drafted by the Reds all the way back in the 3rd round of the 2019 MLB Draft.

He’s the #18 prospect in this year’s Community Prospect Rankings, earning that honor after dominating the vote in a busy, crowded ballot.

In the last week, we talked about platoon splits for the various Astros position players, but platoon splits are only part of the equation. One of the more fascinating parts of sabermetrics is looking at how our conception of the game has changed over the years. If you watched the movie “Moneyball” you probably heard him utter, “his fielding does not matter.” That was an even bigger theme in the book. The entire message was that when teams make lineup decisions placing more value on defense than offense then they were doing it wrong.

I am ashamed to say I said something similar in one of my first books. I’d have to go back and look at how I said it exactly, but it pretty much echoed what Billy Beane had said. Were we idiots? I suppose that is a fair way to think of it, but I would prefer to say we were not informed or simply didn’t have enough data. That particular book was published in 2004. We have learned a ton since then and any team discounting fielding does so at its own peril.

Fielding and hitting are still two very different things and there is not one universal metric that is universally accepted as the go to metric for fielding. We will look at three different sources in this piece, but there are more. Furthermore, we can be sure that each team has their own internal metric that they use. So, what we will see here is not meant to be gospel. In fact, these numbers will demonstrate how evaluating fielding is still very much in the eye of the beholder. This is even for those that use data regularly.

Before we bust out the numbers, I should note that a number of people are familiar with WAR without necessarily understanding its components. A replacement level player is not an average big league player. That is the first misconception. A player with zero WAR would be a typical everyday player in AAA. That is true with hitting and with fielding. A player with zero runs in any particular category is average. Average is better than replacement level. Obviously, how much better depends on the number of innings and the particular formula.

In a 1200 inning season, we could surmise that the replacement level fielder would actually be closer to -10 at a position. Of course, that changes depending on the position. The positions up the middle are worth more than the positions on the corners. There is a ton of math involved and I don’t want to get bogged down in the gory details. What we will do is look at the raw numbers in the first table and then convert those into a 1200 inning season to see what each player’s value would be over a full season.

Actual Numbers

	INN	DRS	OAA	FRV
Yainer Diaz C	990	1	N/A	-3
Christian Walker 1B	1316	-7	2	2
Jose Altuve 2B	499	-8	0	1
Jose Altuve LF	371	-10	-5	-5
Isaac Paredes 3B	766	-4	-3	-2
Carlos Correa 3B	417	-2	2	1
Jeremy Pena SS	1061	5	8	6
Nick Allen IF	1070	12	17	12
Yordan Alvarez LF	116	-1	-1	-1
Jake Meyers CF	844	5	9	8
Cam Smith RF	1079	12	1	0
Jesus Sanchez OF	977	7	-1	0

It should be noted that I did not include Carlos Correa’s innings at shortstop because he is not likely to play shortstop this season. Paredes has innings at third base, but he is likely to play the bulk of his time at first base and/or second base. Sanchez played most of his time in right field, but theoretically could also play some left field. Nick Allen played mostly shortstop, but also logged some innings at second base.

Our three sources for fielding can all be found at fangraphs.com. DRS stands for defensive runs saved. It is the metric from the Fielding Bible and uses video scouting to rate plays and how likely a player was to successfully field it. OAA stands for Outs above average. That and Fielding run value are Statcast numbers which do not rely on humans, so they are more systematic in their methods.

I try not to judge between the three because just the simple act of choosing one over the other introduces bias. It also leaves us open to cherry picking. For instance, I could say I love DRS for Smith and Sanchez, but prefer OAA or FRV for almost everyone else. What we can say is that teams probably gravitate to one of these over the others and without knowing which one we should simply report them all and let the chips fall where they may.

When we convert these to 1200 innings we are creating a math problem. By sheer definition, only eight of these guys could possibly reach 1200 innings and given the balanced nature of the Astros lineup, it is quite possible that none of these guys reach 1200 innings. However, looking at a real estimated run value helps drive home the relative cost or benefit of playing any of these guys for 150 games.

Per 1200 Innings

	DRS	OAA	FRV
Yainer Diaz	1	N/A	-4
Christian Walker	-6	2	2
Jose Altuve 2B	-19	0	-2
Jose Altuve LF	-32	-16	-16
Carlos Correa	-6	6	3
Isaac Paredes	-6	-5	-3
Jeremy Pena	6	9	7
Nick Allen	13	19	13
Yordan Alvarez	-10	-10	-10
Jake Meyers	7	13	11
Cam Smith	13	1	0
Jesus Sanchez	9	-1	0

Like we said, the above mathematically can’t happen. However, we show this to show what would happen if Joe Espada simply plugged in eight guys into the same positions for 150 games. That would mean choosing between second base and left field for Altuve. As you can see, neither is an appealing option. This is why we will likely see a ton of mixing and matching.

Managers must synthesize this information along with the platoon splits to cobble a lineup together on a daily basis. Additionally, they have to consider load management, whether hitters are hot and cold, and what they have done individually against that day’s pitcher. It’s a lot to consider and it is important for us to keep that in mind the next time we want to crush Joe Espada for one of his managerial decisions.

Nick Allen wasn’t an Astro last year, but he and Mauricio Dubon are similar as fielders. It should be noted that when you total the number of runs together for the actual production we get +9 for DRS, +25 for OAA, and +17 for FRV. Effectively, that means that pitchers were a collective one to three wins better with this fielding team behind them than an average fielding team. If we added the 1200 inning totals together we get -31 for DRS, +17 OAA, and -1 for FRV.

Those numbers are obviously inflated since those amount of innings are not available, but it does show that simply putting the best hitters in the lineup and closing your eyes will create an inferior fielding alignment. The question is what is the effective difference between defensive runs and how that compares with the difference between runs created offensively. That is the whole ballgame.