Category: Sports News

Here are the lineups for game 1 of today’s double header against San Francisco. Let’s discuss.

For the Phillies:

For the Giants:

As you know, the collective-bargaining agreement between MLB owners and the MLB Players Association ends on Dec. 1, 2026. The last time such an expiration happened, five years ago, owners began a lockout on Dec. 1, 2021 that ran well into March and threatened the entire 2022 season.

That didn’t happen, though Spring Training 2022 was truncated and after games had been “cancelled,” owners and players agreed to squish a 162-game season into a time frame shorter than normal, largely through playing doubleheaders (the Cubs played six of them, five at Wrigley Field, not much fun for anyone).

So we stand just about seven months from that CBA expiration and Evan Drellich of The Athletic has written an article that covers many of the main points that will need to be addressed in the negotiations. I’m going to hit some of those points here and give a bit of commentary, and later on, I’ll note something that Drellich left out.

First, a bit of the time frame we’re looking at:

In the next couple weeks, MLB and the Players Association are expected to formally start negotiations.

First, the talks will open with a months-long prelude of proposal exchanges. The parties will, naturally, both start out asking for more than they expect to receive.

Last go-around, the sides made opening presentations on April 20, 2021. The players made their first economic proposals in May, and the owners their first in August. A deal wasn’t finalized until March 10, just in time to preserve a full 162-game schedule for 2022.

COMMENT: So, as you see, the time frame of “formal negotiations” will be about the same as it was five years ago. As you can also see, these things move slowly. They are expected to move even more slowly this time because of all the talk, that you have surely heard, about owners wanting a salary cap.

MLB has not confirmed it will make a cap proposal, but Manfred has made many overtures in that direction, and people briefed on ownership thinking who were not authorized to speak publicly say the owners have settled on that approach.

Much will depend, however, on whether owners actually stick by their opening salvo. It’s one thing for MLB to propose a cap at the outset and another to still be fighting for it next spring.

If owners are committed to landing a cap no matter what it takes, the lockout could well cost a season. In that scenario, both sides would try to outlast the other, and historically, little has galvanized players more than attempts to limit their pay.

If the owners eventually back off a cap proposal, preserving some form of the current market system, the 2027 season probably has a better chance to be played in full. The devil would then be in the details of the alternative proposals — and, as always, which side is motivated to outlast the other.

COMMENT: And there we have it, with many owners supposedly being adamant about wanting a cap this time, as opposed to the current “luxury tax” system, a system that some owners (Dodgers, Mets in particular) have shown no interest in limiting themselves to the existing tax levels. The difference, for example, of the Dodgers’ 2026 player tax payroll of $416 million is $337 million more than the bottom-ranking Marlins ($79 million). The difference is more than the entire payrolls of all but two teams (Mets, Yankees).

This is the sort of disparity that concerns many team owners, some of whom feel the only way to stop it is to have a cap. Other payroll-related things, notably the deferred contracts some teams, including the Cubs, have begun to issue, are bound to come up in the negotiations.

So who caves first on this issue, and will we lose games in 2027?

Anything is possible. The damage done to the sport would be to some extent proportional to the number of games missed. Fans would likely more easily forget a missed month than a missed season.

In recent years, some owners have been curious whether players might cave on a cap quickly, or at least, more quickly than expected. This is not a group of players that has been heavily battle-tested, in a labor sense.

Players, too, have differing interests. Some are close to free agency, some are far away, others might never get there. Maybe more of them find a cap appealing today than they did 30 years ago, although there’s no indication of that so far. Stars such as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado and Brent Rooker have spoken out against the change.

“It remains to be seen whether the union can do better by the rank-and-file players than they have in recent years,” Harry Marino, a former MLBPA lawyer who challenged union leadership during a 2024 mutiny, recently told The Athletic. “Do I think that that can be achieved without a salary cap? I do, but the priority of the union has to be the well-being of every single member.”

COMMENT: Drellich is right about a missed month as opposed to losing an entire season. A missed month could mean some games made up; in 1995, for example, coming off that tremendously damaging labor dispute, a 144-game schedule was agreed to. Thirty-one years later, no one really blinks an eye at the 18 games that were missed that year, though it’s possible the missed games cost Albert Belle, who hit 50 home runs that year, a chance at 60.

More important than just missed games is the perception of missed games. Baseball seems to be riding a high right now in popularity. Attendance was up last year. TV ratings are good, and the recent World Baseball Classic got huge audiences compared to previous such events. MLB, per the Drellich article, had about $12 billion of revenue in 2025 and could touch $13 billion in 2026. Do owners really want to risk that, especially because of this?

The league office also has to soon negotiate new national TV deals for 2029 and beyond, and missed games will not help the haul.

If regular-season games wind up canceled, the outcry would be immense. Pressure to end the lockout would fly in from all angles, including TV networks and cable companies and sponsors. Fans would vilify all involved, from the owners who bought teams with hope of being beloved public figures, to the superstar players who are otherwise adored.

COMMENT: No question, Drellich is right about this. MLB hasn’t had a labor dispute that cost games in more than 30 years (the 1994-95 strike). Even in 2022, as noted above, all the “cancelled” games were eventually played, every MLB team played a full 162-game schedule that year.

You can bet that team owners are concerned about those TV deals. As of last year, 49 percent of MLB revenue came from TV deals, about 26 percent from national TV and 23 percent from local. That’s especially important because of this desire of Commissioner Rob Manfred:

Manfred wants to revise the sport’s media-rights structure and the way teams share TV money between themselves — revenue sharing, as it’s called. Manfred believes the answer to the local-media problems is to divide local TV revenues more evenly and to ultimately sell more games nationally.

A cap makes it easier for the commissioner to get all his owners on board with such changes. Large-market teams probably won’t be willing to share significantly more TV money with small-market teams unless a cap arrives.

Indeed, what revisions Manfred could build owner support for in the media-rights and revenue-sharing buckets without a cap is one of the most fascinating questions entering bargaining.

COMMENT: There’s the crux of things right there. With potentially $6 billion (or more) of revenue at stake, Manfred and team owners don’t want to anger TV partners to the point where they don’t want to make deals offering more money.

Would a cap do what Manfred wants? Would it persuade owners of teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, Mets and Yankees, all of whom own their own local RSNs, to go in with MLB Local Media, which now controls the rights for 14 of the 30 teams (and also handles streaming for six others)?

This is not the only reason owners want a cap, but it is one of the most important. Manfred thinks the league could make more in TV revenue if he could offer the entire package — national and local rights — as one thing. He could be right, although the cautionary tale is the very public divorce between MLB and ESPN last spring, which cancelled the last three years of that deal, about $550 million a year. Eventually, the two kissed and made up and signed a deal for about the same money — but MLB had to sell off MLB.TV as a result. That’s all fine and good for the league, maybe not so much for fans, who by next year are likely going to have to spend more money to get MLB.TV.

Same as it ever was, I suppose.

That leads to the bottom line here:

March 2027 is the month to circle, because if a deal isn’t reached then, it’s impossible to hold even a truncated spring training ahead of a full 162-game schedule. Not without drastically altering the schedule, anyway.

Could the sides reach a deal a bit later, maybe in April 2027, and push back the regular season and the playoffs while still playing 162? Maybe, but it’d be a logistical nightmare. For example: Fox, a league broadcast partner, would have to be open to moving the World Series.

If the lockout ultimately extends beyond March, the end date becomes anyone’s guess.

COMMENT: Unless something truly unusual happens, there will be a lockout Dec. 1. Manfred has all but said that will be the case. That means the sport completely shuts down — no Winter Meetings, no free agent signings, no trades, likely no Cubs Convention.

So things would be quiet, as they were in the 2021-22 offseason, until March. Last time, it almost appeared we were going to lose the entire season, with games being “cancelled,” until suddenly, there was a deal. Let’s hope it’s not as messy this time.

I said there was one thing left out of Drellich’s article, and that’s the idea of a salary floor to go along with a cap. I don’t think a cap works without a floor. If MLB had a system like that — and a guaranteed percentage of league revenue going to players — players might be willing to do that, if the percentage was high enough. This article says it’s probably not:

MLB players received 47% of total league revenues in 2024 (figure does not include the estimated ~$800mm in annual expenses that go toward minor league players represented by the MLBPA). By contrast, NFL, NBA, and NHL players all share ~50% of their respective leagues’ pie.

It is estimated that baseball’s players association has left ~$2.5bn on the table over the last three years by failing to tie compensation to revenues (assumes 50/50 split).

As the old saying goes: “A billion here, a billion there, soon you’re talking about real money.” Players are the game. No one goes to a MLB game, or watches one on TV, to watch owners own teams. In a $13 billion industry, the people who produce the value — in this case the players — should get at least half of league revenue. Do that with a cap and floor and now you might have the basis for a deal. In practice, what that would mean is that teams that don’t spend now (Marlins, Guardians, White Sox, Rays are the bottom four in payroll this year) would have to. Some mid-range free agents (Lucas Giolito, maybe?) would be signed for more money than they’re making now.

If a cap/floor system happens, one thing that would have to go along with it is grandfathering existing contracts until they end. This is one reason, I believe, that teams signed players to long-term extensions this spring (including the Cubs, with Nico Hoerner and Pete Crow-Armstrong). They did so to get cost certainty in a possible cap system.

Lastly, for the Cubs the 2027 All-Star Game is at stake — the photo above is of Manfred at Wrigley announcing the ‘27 ASG awarded to the Cubs last August. The Cubs have reportedly been told that if a labor dispute wipes out the ‘27 ASG, they’d get it in ‘28 or ‘29. Clearly, though, with planning already in progress, the Cubs would like for the All-Star Game to be played as scheduled at Wrigley Field in July 2027.

Much has to be done, obviously, before there’s a deal. Both owners and players have an interest in not losing any 2027 games to a labor dispute. Let’s hope they can put together a deal that’s good for everyone — including fans.

Lucas Erceg has been…something less than good so far this year.

When the Royals traded for him in 2024, he immediately became the team’s best reliever and locked down the closer role. More than that, though, he seemed like a shutdown reliever in the vein of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis, and Greg Holland. It’s almost impossible to have three relievers of that quality at the same time – the Dodgers tried and ended up with bupkis last year – but a team with playoff aspirations probably should have at least one of them*, and Erceg figured to be the Royals’ answer to that need after his terrific debut.

*Though, again, look at the Dodgers. Sometimes, you can get by with a really good starting pitcher who is willing to do crazy things.

Unfortunately, since the end of 2024, Erceg has simply not been the guy the Royals hoped for. In a lot of ways, he appears similar, and he still had a 2.64 ERA last year. But this year, through the season’s first month, he’s wielding a 4.38 ERA and, even more concerning, he has a 5.36 SIERA, suggesting that he may actually have been lucky to pitch even that well. So what the heck is going on?

There are two primary theories I considered: either he’s tipping pitches, or he’s throwing too many non-competitive pitches. Now, normally, the first place you should go to research a pitcher is TJStats.ca. It’s a fantastic website with gobs of data that takes what’s present on Baseball Savant and expands on it, but also makes it easier to comprehend. If you’re willing and able to pony up for a subscription, you can get even deeper analysis. Fortunately for you all, I’ve traded in some of my Pop-Tarts, and so I can offer you this comparison image of Lucas Erceg in 2026 and 2024.

Now, if you just go to the bottom row of the pitch tables, he doesn’t seem all that different. He’s throwing nearly as many strikes as before, and the xwOBACon (a stat that estimates how much damage should have been done based on contact quality) is pretty similar to 2024. But the chases and whiffs are WAY down. That would seem to be a point in favor of pitch tipping. But hold on a second… let’s look at things pitch by pitch. He’s actually throwing far more strikes with his sinker and changeup than before, but missing with his four-seamer and slider at truly awful rates for those pitch types. The problem is especially bad with his slider.

So I decided to do an extra deep dive in the slider. I went on Baseball Savant, and I watched literally every slider he’s thrown this year, and I came to an incontrovertible conclusion. The problem isn’t that he’s tipping pitches, and it’s not even that he’s not throwing his slider in the zone often enough. It’s that too few of his sliders ever even look like strikes.

Location, location, location

There’s a concept in pitching where you can describe the movement of a pitch by whether it starts as a strike or ball and ends as a strike or ball. So, if a pitch appears to be a strike upon release and ends up outside of the strike zone, that would be called a strike-ball pitch. Vice versa is ball-strike. And in the same vein, you can describe a pitch as a strike-strike or a ball-ball. This description format shows its weaknesses for some kinds of pitches, of course:

That pitch is technically a ball-ball. But it would be better described as a ball-strike-ball. It starts off outside, passes through the area that would be the strike zone if the strike zone were a cylinder, and then ends up low. For the purposes of today’s discussion, I classified such pitches as strike-ball pitches because I was primarily concerned with whether the batter had any reason to consider swinging. If you’re curious, he only had one other ball-strike-ball pitch.

Far too many of Lucas Erceg’s sliders are ball-ball pitches. He has thrown a total of 65 sliders so far this year, and 49 of them have ended up outside the zone. Now, sure, he should probably throw a few more in the zone. But by far the biggest problem is that, of the 49 sliders that have ended up outside the zone, 25 of them look a lot like this:

This has led to only one swing and one check swing on those pitches. Which makes sense. A slider succeeds based on its ability to convince a batter that it’s a fastball before diving off course. But those 25 pitches start off outside the strike zone, so batters don’t even really need to consider whether they might be fastballs or sliders. And the one swing he got was Gunnar Henderson on a pitch that looked like it was headed back toward the zone*:

*One thing I discovered during this process is that Erceg has two different slider actions. You’ll note that this one is breaking back armside, sometimes referred to as a wrong-way slider or a goofy slider. That’s why, if you refer back to Erceg’s comparison tables, it looks like his slider doesn’t break horizontally, it averages out to near nothing because some of them break glove-side and some break arm-side. This is neat and weird, but it has always been true of Erceg, so it isn’t the cause of his current troubles.

On the other hand, of the 24 sliders Erceg has thrown strike-ball, he’s gotten swings on 12 of them, along with 3 check swings. Of those swings, only two have been put in play, and three have been fouled off. So if you could reduce his sliders to just the ones he’s thrown strike-ball, he has a 50% chase rate and a 58.3% whiff rate. Those are staggeringly good numbers. He doesn’t need to throw more sliders in the zone to succeed; just more sliders that look like they might be strikes.

It turns out there’s nothing wrong with his slider’s deception, just his accuracy. Now, unfortunately, I can’t tell you why he’s throwing so many non-competitive sliders. It could be a mechanical issue, but if it were, I’d expect to see them consistently missing in the same way; instead, some of them end up spiked while others end up looking like something Ricky Vaughn would throw.

It could be that he’s afraid of hanging them in the zone, so he’s making sure to miss out of the zone if he misses at all. But, as you can tell from the graph earlier, he really doesn’t seem to need to worry about batters making contact. A. 158 xwOBACon is fantastic. Overall, his average exit velocity against is 88.8 MPH with an average launch angle of 8 degrees. In other words, the most likely batted ball you’d expect is a routine groundout. He’s only given up 10 hits in 12.1 innings, it’s the 10 walks in the same span that have often doomed him.

He’s only given up two hits on sliders this year, weirdly, both against Milwaukee on April 5. Meaning he hasn’t given up a hit on a slider outside that game. The first was a center-cut slider that resulted in a 94-MPH line drive off the bat of Jake Bauers with an XBA of .510 that Bauers turned into a hustle double. Basically, he threw the worst slider he could, the batter put a really good swing on it, and he still probably should only have given up a single, if that. The second was his other ball-strike-ball slider; Brandon Lockridge managed to bloop it into center and scored an RBI single on a ball with an XBA of only .350. A coin flip and a 1-in-3 chance are the best anyone’s been able to get off of Erceg’s slider when he lets them make contact with it.

The fix is simple, though if it were easy, I imagine he’d have done it by now. Lucas Erceg just needs to get his sliders aimed at the strike zone. If he could do that more often, he might immediately return to being the Lights Out Lucas we remember from 2024.

Here’s hoping he can figure it out soon.

There is a story in the Wall Street Journal called ‘In Defense of Umpires’ in which the author complains about the ABS Challenge System, which kind of surprised me. Of course, there are people who will complain about anything, but I’ve liked the challenge system. I’ve been surprised at how quick it is, I was worried that it would be a long break in the action, but it fits in an at bat fairly seamlessly. It is a lot quicker than having the manager and pitching coach yelling at the umpire.

And, I think, it has made life better for umpires. As much as we think they should get every pitch right, that’s not possible. But they seem somewhat better at making calls this year and when they get one wrong it can be corrected. No one is going to be perfect, but this allows baseball to fix the very imperfect calls.

But the story in the WSJ starts with “There is nothing good that can’t be ruined by technology.” I don’t know, my baseball fandom has improved with the ability to watch every game, not just one game a week. And that I can share my fandom with others around the country/planet, not just the few friends I have that also are baseball fans (or will pretend to be because I’m going to talk about baseball all the time anyway).

I know I’m supposed to be old and hate everything new and I do have some of that in me. But I’m a fan of the ABS system.

But Jonathan Shapiro says:

ABS, however, stops the game in its tracks and destroys the pace of play. And it does so for the spectacularly uninteresting purpose of conducting a spot audit of the umpire’s competence. This shifts the crowd’s focus away from where it should be, on the contest between hitter and pitcher, and redirects it to an artificial and irrelevant contest between umpire and robot. 

I was thinking maybe it might just be me, so I thought I’d put up a poll.

As a result of last night’s rainout, the Houston Astros (11-19) and Baltimore Orioles (14-15) will play a traditional doubleheader today at Camden Yards.

Game One: RHP Peter Lambert (1-1, 3.27 ERA) will make his 3rd start of the season as he takes on Orioles RHP Chris Bassitt (1-2, 6.75 ERA). Today will be Lambert’s 1st career appearance vs. BAL.

TODAY’S GM 1 STARTER: RHP Peter Lambert will make his 3rd start/app. of the season today.

He was stellar in his last start on 4/22 at CLE, allowing just 3 hits in 6.0 scoreless innings with 8 strikeouts (16 whiffs) in the Astros 2-0 win.

Lambert joined the Astros via free agency this offseason after pitching last year for the Tokyo Yakult Swallows in the NPB, posting a 3.98 ERA (55ER/124.1IP) with 111 strikeouts in 23 appearances in Japan. He began this season at Triple A Sugar Land (1.84 ERA in 3 app. (2 GS) before being called up for a start on April 17 vs. STL.

A SWING AND A MISS: In his 2 starts this season, RHP Peter Lambert has induced a combined 39 swing-and-misses. The 23 whiffs he induced in his April 17 start vs. STL are the 3rd-highest total by an AL pitcher in 2026 and T-5th highest in the Majors:

Most Whiffs in a Game (2026)

1. 27 –Cole Ragans (4/25)

2. 26 – Shota Imanaga (4/15 at PHI)

3. 25 – Jacob Misiorowski (3/26 vs. CWS)

4. 24 – Dylan Cease (3/28 vs. ATH)

T5. 23 – Peter Lambert(4/17 vs. STL)

T5. 23 – Jesus Luzardo (4/4 at COL)

T5. 23 – Yoshinubu Yamamoto (4/14 vs. NYM)

T5. 23 – Kyle Harrison (4/26)

TODAY’S ROSTER MOVES: The Astros have placed RHP Ryan Weiss on the Paternity List.

To take his place on the active roster, the Astros have reinstated RHP Cody Bolton from the 15-day IL.

The Astros have also added RHP Jason Alexander to the roster as the 27^th man for the doubleheader.

VS. THE O’S: Today’s doubleheader will wrap up this 3-game series vs. the Orioles.

The Astros were 4-3 vs. BAL in 2025 with a 3-1 mark here at Camden Yards, Aug. 21-24. The two clubs will next meet for a 3-game set at Daikin Park, July 17-19.

PLAYER OF THE MONTH?:Yordan Alvarez is a strong candidate for the AL Player of the Month Award as he has had a torrid start to his season, hitting .355 with 11 HR and 26 RBI.

Alvarez leads the AL in OPS (1.199), RBI (26), SLG (.736), OBP (.463) and Total Bases (81) while ranking 2nd in batting avg. (.355) and WAR (1.9). Additionally, Alvarez’ current 13-game hitting streak is tied for the longest active streak in the AL (Kevin McGonigle-DET) and matches his career-best, done May 2-16, 2023.

HISTORIC HOMERS: Yordan Alvarez is off to one of the most prolific starts in franchise history. His 11 HR through the club’s first 30 games of the season are the 2nd-most in franchise history. Below is a breakdown:

Most HOU HR Thru 30G:

1:Lance Berkman: 13 (2002)

T2: Yordan Alvarez: 11 (2026)

T2: Lance Berkman: 11 (2006)

Most HOU HR Thru 31G:

1. Lance Berkman: 13 (2002)

T2: Y. Alvarez: 11 (2019, 22)

T2: Jeff Bagwell: 11 (2003)

T2: Lance Berkman: (2006)

ROAD WARRIOR: In 9 road games (6 starts) this season, Brice Matthews is 7×21 (.333) with a HR, 6 RBI and 6 BB, slashing (.333/462/.619) for a 1.081 OPS.

In his young career, Matthews is hitting .289 in 16 road games (12 starts) with 5 HR and 15 RBI with a .396 OBP and a .689 SLG (1.085 OPS).

CAMDEN CRUSHER: Jose Altuve has a .366 (60×164) career avg. at Camden Yards with a 1.029 OPS in 39 games. His .366 avg ranks T-2nd-best all-time, using a minimum of 150 ABs vs. The O’s.

Additionally, Altuve has a .315 career avg. (94×298) vs. the Orioles overall. He has posted a .300+ career batting avg. vs. 15 opposing teams.

CLIMBING THE CHARTS: With 238 career HR, Jose Altuve needs one more to tie Lou Whitaker for 7th place all-time among 2nd basemen.

Altuve also needs 3 RBI to become the 5th player in franchise history to reach 900.

WALKER, TEXAS HAMMER:Christian Walker is hitting .429 (12×28) in his last 7 games (since 4/20) with 3 HR and 7 RBI.

Among The Leaders: For the season, Walker enters today ranked T-3rd in the AL in RBI (23), 4th in SLG (.579), T-6th in TB (62), 5th in OPS (.956) and T-6th in doubles (9).

HAPPY HEAVENLY BIRTHDAY: To Phil Garner, who would have turned 77 years old today.

TODAY IN ASTROS HISTORY: 1982 – At Three Rivers Stadium in Pittsburth, Phil Garner hits a 3-run HR on his 33rd birthday to help defeat the Pirates, 4-3. Garner, who was voted into the Astros Hall of Fame earlier this month, had played for the Pirates (1977-81) prior to being traded to HOU on Aug. 31, 1981.

1979 – At Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Terry Puhl’s 2-run HR in the top of the 9th lifted the Astros to a 6-5, comeback win over the Cardinals. The Astros had entered the 9th, trailing, 4-2. Puhl’s HR capped a dramatic, 4-run 9th-inning rally.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Thursday, April 30, 11:35 a.m. CDT

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

TV: Space City Home Network

Streaming: SCHN+

Radio: KBME 790 AM & 94.5 FM HD2; TUDN 102.9 FM HD2 (Spanish)