Category: Sports News

I’m going to post this early because I have to run out this morning, but I should be back about game time. We have an early start time: 1:00 pm Eastern.

The Jays are making the stressful bus ride from Dunedin to Tampa Bay to play the Yankees at Steinbrenner Field. I found the worst traffic I’ve ever seen doing that drive. But there was a Souplantation not far from the park, and I knew someone who said they had the best tomato soup there. It was ok, not all that much better than Campbell’s can soup, but it allowed the rushhour traffic to disappear. I see that Souplantation has gone out of business since.

The Jays have the touring company on stage today. Daulton Varsho is playing center, after a couple of days of DH. Jesus Sanchez and Davis Schneider are playing too. And the two guys fighting for a utility infielder role are both out there: Leo Jimenez and Ben Cowles.

The home team is using a bunch of the regulars.

The beat reporters are talking up Eloy Jimenez, which makes me think the team is really considering him for a fourth or fifth outfielder role. A right-handed bat with power would be a useful thing.

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Jose Berrios says that he feels ‘pretty healthy’ and ‘pretty strong’ after having doubts at the start of last spring.

Jose Berrios revealed he had ‘doubt’ about the health of his arm last spring. After his first outing this spring, he said a focus on using his lower half more helped him shed that concern, plus more from a Blue Jays loss to the Mets: https://t.co/wFEEoWQPkT

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) February 23, 2026

Chris Sale is authoring a chapter in Atlanta that may one day stand up to his legacies in Chicago and Boston.

The 2024 Cy Young Award winner and nine-time All-Star signed a one-year extension with the Braves that includes a club option for 2028, the team announced Feb. 24. Sale, who turns 37 next month, will make $27 million in 2027 and $30 million if the club picks up his option.

If so, that'd make it four years in Atlanta, which doesn't totally reach his seven years as a White Sox or his six as a Red Sox, a period that included the 2018 World Series championship.

But it's also far more than a veteran stopover on the way, potentially, to the Hall of Fame.

Sale edged Zack Wheeler for the 2024 NL Cy, when he led the circuit with 225 strikeouts and made 29 starts, the first time he stayed healthy enough to exceed 20 starts since 2019.

The injury bug bit again in 2025, when a rib cage fracture limited him to 20 starts, but Sale, at 6-6 one of the game's most imposing mound presences, remained dominant. In his two years in Atlanta, Sale has struck out 11.6 batters per nine innings, exceeding his career mark of 11.1, and posted a 168 adjusted ERA, well above his 141 lifetime plateau.

Sale's won 145 career games and has finished in the top six in Cy Young voting eight times.

Chris Sale contract detais

Sale has steadfastly avoided free agency throughout his career. He originally signed a five-year, $32.5 million extension as a pre-arbitration player with the White Sox in 2013; the deal included club options for 2018 and 2019. 

The White Sox traded him to the Red Sox before the 2018 season, and Sale signed a five-year, $145 million extension with Boston in March 2019, shortly before entering his final year under contract. 

After a trade to Atlanta and before his 2025 club option kicked in, he-reupped for two years with the Braves in January 2024, a $38 million guarantee that included the $18 million club option that he'll play under in this upcoming season. 

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Chris Sale contract with Braves could be worth $57 million

Drafts are hard. The MLB Draft moreso. The tricky part about MLB’s draft is that prospects have a longer maturation time than, say, football or basketball. The draft, or the version we came to know, came into existence in 1965, replacing the Bonus Baby

In today’s baseball, a high draft pick from the MLB draft is not generally seen in The Show for a few years, unless the organization involved is being highly (and potentially recklessly) aggressive. In the past 60 years of the Draft, only 24 players have gone directly from being drafted to the majors.

In this bunch, there has been only one Hall of Famer, Dave Winfield, and one Rookie of the Year, Bob Horner of the Atlanta Braves (1978). The Dodgers have pulled this stunt only once, in 1994, with the constantly-injured Darren Dreifort.

Accordingly, it is worth revisiting MLB drafts at least five to ten years later to see what could have gone better, what went right, and what went hilariously wrong or otherwise.

As with my idea of revisiting the 1955 World Series, someone beat me to it. YouTuber Wilytics published an excellent video essay in which he analyzed the first round and conducted a hypothetical redraft based on the performances of everyone in the draft.

The 2016 Draft was notoriously thin in the first round with a gamut of unknowns, busts, and failed lottery tickets. Mickey Moniak was the number one pick by the Philadelphia Phillies, who ultimately traded him to the Anaheim Angels for Noah Syndergaard at the 2022 trade deadline. Moniak currently plays for the Colorado Rockies.

One team did fairly well in the first round, prompting this essay: the Dodgers.

Even for the Dodgers’ prodigious revenue and spending, it is easy for the uninitiated to forget that the organization has a history of drafting well. This fact remains true, even though the Dodgers typically pick in the rear of the first round. Even Andrew Friedman admits that baseball is designed for the Dodgers to have the worst farm system in baseball — on paper.

The Dodgers had three picks in the first 41 of the 2016 first round: 20th, 32nd, and 36th.

The 32nd pick was a compensation pick in exchange for soon-to-be Hall of Famer Zack Greinke signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The 36th pick was a compensation pick for failing to sign the 2015 35th pick, Kyle Funkhouser, who instead returned to Louisville, who was himself a compensation pick for the Boston Red Sox signing Hanley Ramirez.

One pick was an absolute home run. One pick was solid before an injury and eventual departure. The 36th pick was a bust, as Jordan Sheffield now coaches at Vanderbilt.

At Pick 20: Gavin Lux

Jim Callis of MLB.com had the following to say about the Dodgers drafting of Lux:

With Delvin Perez reportedly failing a pre-Draft PED test, Lux became the top shortstop in a Draft that’s very weak at the position. He took a significant step forward this spring, making improvements with his swing, strength, speed and arm. He grew up around the game as the nephew of former No. 2 overall pick Augie Schmidt, now the coach of Division III Carthage (Wisc.), and his instincts stand out as well.

Lest anyone forget, after cups of coffee in 2019 and the COVID Cup year of 2020, Lux was solid. in 2021 and 2022. Over these two full seasons, Lux had a slash line of .261/.338/.384, a rWAR of 4.2, and a fWAR of 4.1 over 231 games.

Accordingly, the Dodgers saw Lux as the successor at shortstop after Corey Seager and Trea Turner departed. Unfortunately for Lux, disaster struck when he tore his anterior cruciate ligament and strained his right lateral collateral ligament at the start of 2023’s Spring Training.

Gavin Lux has been carted off the field after sustaining an injury running into third base. pic.twitter.com/Glh5Z7jFEh

— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) February 27, 2023

While Lux did return and rebound with a 2.1 rWAR / 1.4 fWAR / .251/.320/.383 10-home run season in 2024, Lux could not handle throws from shortstop and largely played at second base.

Lux was ultimately dealt to the Cincinnati Reds before the start of the 2025 season for prospects (hello Mike Sirota!) and is now on his third organization in two years.

At Pick 32: Will Smith

Jim Callis of MLB.com had the following to say about the Dodgers drafting of Smith:

There was buzz he was going to go at the end of the first round or early in the supplemental first round, so this makes sense. He might hit .260-.270, give you a little bit of power, be a good receiver and give you a good arm behind the plate. I had one scout give me a plus run time on him.

Talk about an undersell.

The Dodgers ended up with a stalwart, foundational backstop who took over primary catching duties in 2019 and did not let go. Over the past seven seasons, Smith has racked up 23 rWAR / 22.4 fWAR with a combined slash line of .264/.358/.476 and 128 home runs. Smith has averaged 132 wRC+ over seven seasons, never dipping below 109 (2024).

Smith will be a Dodger through 2034, earning a 10-year, $140 million extension in 2024 doing taciturn, yeoman’s work, likely en route to the Hall of Pretty Good with the occasional postseason heroics, most recently the final run of the 2025 season.

At this point, Dodgers fans can giggle over the fact that two catchers were picked before Smith, and most of the league, including the Dodgers themselves, passed on Smith until pick 32 of the Draft.

Jim Callis did a redraft essay for the 2015 MLB Draft and will probably do one for this subject draft, too. If Smith does not go first or second in this hypothetical, what are we doing here?

And the rest of the Dodgers’ haul

Now, as alluded to before, the Dodgers did better than most teams in this draft. But they still whiffed in places as most teams do, with Sheffield, outfielder and fourth-round pick D.J. Peters, outfielder and seventh-round pick Luke Raley, pitcher and twenty-third round pick Bailey Ober (did not sign), and pitcher and thirty-eighth round overslot pick Kevin Malisheski (signed for $248,500 and only got as high as a cup of coffee in Double-A Tulsa), to name a few.

The Dodgers signed plenty of familiar names in the later rounds of this draft.

• Second Round, Pick 65 – Pitcher Mitch White
• Third Round, Pick 101 – Pitcher Dustin May
• Ninth Round, Pick 281 – Pitcher Tony Gonsolin
• Fourteenth Round, Pick 431 – Pitcher Dean Kremer (traded, in part, for Manny Machado in 2018)
• Thirty-third Round, Pick 1001 – Shortstop Zach McKinstry

If what the Dodgers were doing was easy, other teams would or should do it. However, other organizations are publicly cutting scouting staff, which is far cheaper than spending top dollar on the free-agent market. Moreover, in situations like the signing of Roki Sasaki in 2025, all of the teams were generally forced into the same or similar financial constraints.

And Sasaki still came to Los Angeles, regardless of Toronto acquiring Myles Straw in a last-ditch effort to increase the size of the financial pot. The Dodgers are currently thriving in the current system, finding overlooked value that every team has access to.

Fun with Ben Rortvedt

Fan favorite and current resident of the New York Mets’ system, Ben Rortvedt, was selected in the second round with Pick 56 by the Minnesota Twins. With no disrespect to Rortvedt, here are some notable Major Leaguers picked afterwards, just on the first day of the Draft.

• Pick 59 – San Francisco Giants – Outfielder Bryan Reynolds
• Pick 60 – Anaheim Angels – Outfielder Brandon Marsh
• Pick 64 – New York Mets – First Baseman Pete Alonso
• Pick 66 (immediately after the Dodgers picked Mitch White) – Toronto Blue Jays – Shortstop Bo Bichette

Yes, that Bo Bichette, who now plays third base for the Mets, after they allowed Alonso to depart in the 2025 offseason. Baseball! Bichette was Wilytics’ pick for the number one pick of a hypothetical 2016 redraft.

Sometimes these picks work out, and sometimes they do not. The Dodgers did get value and depth out of Mitch White before trading him to Toronto in 2022. And other times, picks are absolute disasters that do not bear terrible fruit until much later.

To conclude this brief retrospective, we return to two picks after Gavin Lux in the first round, where the Pittsburgh Pirates selected Third Baseman Will Craig. A Dodgers fan could be forgiven for not instantly recognizing that name without the prompting of the greatest (or most infamous) baseball blooper in the twenty-first century so far.

Javier Baez of the Cubs hit a weak ground ball to third base in the second inning with two outs against the Pirates on May 27, 2021, in Pittsburgh. Then absolute insanity broke out, leading to the unlikeliest and most unearned two-run rally in recent memory, with Baez ultimately scoring later in the inning and providing the ultimate margin of victory.

Why Craig did not touch first is one of the unanswerable questions of our time.

Good Morning! The Mariners fell to the Los Angeles Dodgers 3-0 in yesterday’s Spring Training action. Logan Gilbert’s first start of the spring showcased his deadly splitter as he worked through two scoreless innings, allowing one hit with two strikeouts and two walks. Gilbert reiterated recently that his goal for every season is 32 starts and 200 innings. How many starts and innings do you predict he will reach in 2026?

In Mariners news…

• At the end of last season, Julio Rodriguez approached Cole Young’s locker and gave him some direct advice for improving his game. Young took those words to heart, and his first step in development was a serious offseason training regimen.
• Lefty reliever Jose A. Ferrer brings much-needed reinforcement to the team’s right-handed heavy bullpen.
• Infielder Brendan Donovan joined Seattle Sports 710 AM’s Brock and Salk yesterday morning to share his excitement for the upcoming season.

Around the league…

• The Chicago Cubs have signed veteran outfielder Michael Conforto to a minor league deal to add some depth behind a strong starting outfield group.
• Led by former Mariners minor league pitching coach Alon Leichman, the Colorado Rockies’ new approach to pitching in 2026 brings unique perspectives and opportunities together. Leichman has paved an incredible career path since working for the Mariners, and if you are interested in learning more about his dedication and background, check out this profile I wrote about him way back in 2020!
• The Miami Marlins’ third base competition has opened up after Graham Pauley was shut down yesterday due to forearm tightness. Pauley was set to compete with fellow 25-year-old Connor Norby for the starting third base spot, but has yet to appear in a Spring Training game.
• To properly implement the new ABS system, MLB is precisely measuring every hitter’s height to determine the correct placement of the strike zone.
• The San Francisco Giants have signed RHP Brent Honeywell Jr. to a minor league deal that does not include an invite to Spring Training.
• Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal plans to only make one start for Team USA in the upcoming World Baseball Classic, no matter how far the team advances in the tournament.

Third base prospect Jacob Reimer will spend some time in camp this year as a non-roster invitee. Reimer enjoyed a breakout 2025 season where he hit .282/.379/.491 with 17 home runs and 77 RBIs split between High-A Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton. His success saw him rise up the prospect rankings, with Amazin’ Avenue rank him seventh in the Mets system. MLB Pipeline has the 22-year-old ranked as the second best prospect in baseball at his position and Baseball Prospectus lists him as 70th in their top 100 prospect rankings.

The big righty won’t break camp with the major league team but Carlos Mendoza wants the top prospects to be around the major leaguers to learn from them and pick their brains as much as possible. As for Reimer he is using the opportunity to work on his bat speed and his defense according to The Athletic. Reimer still sees himself as a third baseman but with his build and athleticism he might be better suited for first base in the future.

Reimer played in 61 games at Double-A in 2025 and found some success after the promotion. He hit .279/.374/.479 with 9 home runs and 38 RBIs with the Rumble Ponies. He will most likely start the season in Double-A but he could continue to rise and see some time in Triple-A this season. He is a long shot to make it to the majors in 2026 but if there are enough injuries, he has an outside chance to get the call. This season it will be interesting to see if he is moved off third base and if the organization views him as their potential first baseman of the future.

In our most recent Rangers Reacts Survey, we asked which of the veteran pitchers who the Rangers have brought to spring training on a minor league deal y’all thought was most likely to make the team on Opening Day.

Well, the votes are in, and you went with an old favorite:

Josh Sborz, hero of the 2023 World Series, has dealt with injuries the past two seasons, and was non-tendered back in November after not pitching in the majors in 2025. It would be a great story if he could make it back.

38 year old righthanded reliever Ryan Brasier was the next choice, followed by former first round pick Cal Quantrill, who would appear to be vying with Kumar Rocker and Jacob Latz for the fifth starter job.

I had forgotten that Nabil Crismatt was done for the year due to a torn UCL when I did this poll, or else I wouldn’t have included him. Still, there are a few folks who have faith in him making the greatest injury comeback — or, at least, quickest — of all time.

The Reds made the postseason in 2025. Did you notice? They were dispatched quickly by the Dodgers. And, they had the worst record of any of the postseason teams at 83-79.

Still, that’s something to build on, and the Reds are indeed building.

Key departures: Zack Littell, Nick Martinez, Austin Hays, Brent Suter, Yosver Zululeta, Gavin Lux

Key arrivals: Nathaniel Lowe, Eugenio Suárez, JJ Bleday, Ben Rortvedt, Pierce Johnson, Brock Burke,

Eugenio Suárez is the active MLB leader in home runs against the Cubs with 36. So it made me very happy when he was traded to the Mariners last summer — had he stayed there, the Cubs would have had to face him only one series a year.

Now Suárez will come back and torture Cubs pitching again. As you’ll recall, he had a four-homer series against the Cubs last April in Arizona, then hit another in that wacky 13-11 Cubs comeback win at Wrigley.

Granted, Suárez is now 34, but I do not look forward to seeing him play 13 games against the Cubs this year. He’ll be mostly a DH with Ke’Bryan Hayes now a Reds fixture at third base.

Otherwise the Reds return most of their 83-win team from last year. Former Cub Pierce Johnson joins a strong bullpen, and Hunter Greene has become one of the better pitchers in the league. Another starter to watch is Chase Burns, who was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 Draft out of Wake Forest. He struggled at times in his debut season, but can throw 100-plus just as Greene can.

The Reds might be tougher competition for the Cubs in the NL Central than the Brewers in 2026.

At Wrigley Field: May 4-5-6-7 and Aug. 28-29-30

At Cincinnati: July 10-11-12 and Sept. 18-19-20

SB Nation team site:Red Reporter

Jake Irvin fired two scoreless innings in his first start of the spring. That should be good news, but the start made me more bearish on the right hander. This is due to his drop in velocity. He only averaged 90.3 MPH on his 4-seam and 91.1 MPH on his sinker. This continues an ongoing trend for Irvin.

If you were hoping for improved fastball velocity from Jake Irvin, you are not going to get it, at least not tonight. He is sitting around 90-91

— federalbaseball (@federalbaseball) February 23, 2026

Sure, you can chalk some of this up to building up in the first start of the spring. However, this is a continuation of a multi-year trend. Velocity should have been a point of emphasis for Irvin this offseason, so it is disappointing to see him throw even slower.

When Irvin came in the league in 2023, his 4-seam averaged 94.5 MPH and his sinker averaged 93.9. In 2024, he was still effective, but his velocity dropped off a bit, especially in the second half. His 4-seam averaged 93.9 MPH and his sinker averaged 93.3. 

Last year was by far the worst year of Irvin’s career. It should be no surprise to hear that his velocity dropped even further. His 4-seamer averaged 92.4 MPH and his sinker averaged 91.9. Irvin’s velocity has dropped two ticks over the last couple of years, and he struggled to average 90 MPH in this start.

Sure, it is early spring, but the alarm bells are ringing for me. We know that Irvin is at his best when he is able to sit in that 94 MPH range. Yesterday, he was not even able to touch 94. 

I always go back to that dominant outing Irvin had on July 4th of 2024 to see what he looks like at his best. That afternoon he went 8 scoreless against the Mets and was absolutely shoving. His fastball was consistently in the 93-96 MPH range, and it was playing like a plus pitch. With the heater firmly in the low-90’s now, it does not play as well.

Jake Irvin retires his 17th batter in a row to get through 8 scoreless innings! pic.twitter.com/i7s5y314kF

— MLB (@MLB) July 4, 2024

I was really hoping to see Irvin sitting 93-94 yesterday, but that did not happen. The hardest pitch he threw was 92.9 MPH. Hopefully that can tick up as we get deeper into spring, but I feel like it is unrealistic to expect him to get back to that 2023-2024 velocity at this point. I am not sure what happened, but that velocity seems to be gone.

Like a lot of Nats pitchers, Irvin does seem to be going away from his fastball. Yesterday, Irvin was using a six pitch mix where you were not quite sure about which pitch was coming. He threw the four-seamer, the curveball, the sinker, the cutter and the changeup at least 10% of the time. Being unpredictable could be a way to offset some of that lost velocity.

43 pitches for Jake Irvin in today’s start
20.9% Fastball (32% in 2025)
23.3% Curveball (30% in 2025)
20.9% Changeup (8% in 2025)
14% Sinker (22% in 2025)
14% Cutter (4% in 2025)
7% Slider (4% in 2025)
Result: 2 scoreless, 1 hit, 2 BB, 2 Ks
The anti-fastball revolution continues. https://t.co/YEOVrWf7Wj

— Paul Cubbage (@PaulCubbage23) February 23, 2026

However, the ceiling of a right hander throwing 90 MPH is quite capped. There is so much nasty stuff in the game right now. Having such limited velocity is a real detriment. You can survive if you have a deep pitch mix and excellent control. However, I think Irvin’s control is good but not great and none of his secondary pitches are dominant. 

Irvin needs the velocity to get back to being the solid number 4 starter he looked like he was becoming. If he struggles out of the gate this year, his rotation spot could be in jeopardy. Guys like Mitchell Parker, Riley Cornelio and Luis Perales will be waiting in the wings. They will be ready to roll if Irvin struggles.
Around this time last year I expressed my concerns about Irvin’s velocity and was proven right. This year I am ringing the alarm bells again. It is early in Spring Training, so Irvin’s velocity could bounce back. However, we are seeing a multi-year trend continue into 2026. That is not a great sign for the 29 year old right hander.

3. Brody Brecht (476 points, 19 ballots)

The statuesque Brecht — a 6’4”, 235-pound, 23-year-old right-hander — has taken on the mantle of becoming the Rockies’ highest-ranked (and highest-ceiling) pitching prospect. Brecht could have been an early draft pick coming out of high school in 2021, but he wanted to play college football as a wide receiver at Iowa. When that didn’t work out as hoped (due in part to concussions), Brecht concentrated on baseball full-time starting as a sophomore. He showed enough promise on the mound to earn an over-slot (by $250k) $2.7 million bonus from the Rockies as the 38th-overall pick of the 2024 draft. What kind of promise? How about a high-80s slider that most scouts consider to be plus-plus and a fastball that touches triple digits? The rub of course is below average control of the fastball in particular.

In his sophomore year at Iowa, Brecht struck out 109 batters (nearly a third of those he faced) but walked 61 (7.1 BB/9). Though there was some improvement in his draft year (5.6 BB/9 rate), it’s a major reason the Rockies were able to get Brecht with pick 38 rather than the top 10. Speaking of that draft year: Brecht again struck out a bunch of hitters — 128 in 78 1⁄3 innings pitched, which is 37% of batters faced and a 14.7 K/9 rate — while compiling a respectable 3.33 ERA.

In his first professional season last year, the Rockies sent Brecht to Low-A Fresno, where he was about league-average age. The Rockies kept Brecht on a pitch count (he didn’t eclipse 72 until his last three starts of the year, when he got up to 88 pitches), so it’s of no surprise that he also didn’t go deeper than five innings in 15 of his 16 starts with Fresno. Those 16 starts were split into two periods by a back injury that kept Brecht away from the California League for over two months, though he made four strong rehab appearances with the complex league team in the interim.

When he was on the mound for Fresno, Brecht showed the bat-missing stuff that got him picked in the top 40 of the draft. In 55 1/3 innings with Fresno, Brecht posted a 2.60 ERA (3.18 xFIP), 1.34 WHIP, 14.2 K/9 rate, and 5.2 BB/9 rate. Basically, 51% of plate appearances against Brecht in 2025 ended up as a strikeout (37%) or a walk (14%). Brecht’s final start of the season was his deepest foray into a game yet, as he threw seven innings while allowing two runs on four hits while striking out eight in 88 pitches in a valiant effort in a playoff loss.

Here’s Brecht in action for his second professional start last spring in Fresno (game action starts at the five minute mark, side views of his delivery are at the 14 minute mark, and slo mo shots begin at the 16 minute mark):

Baseball America ranked Brecht as the fourth best prospect in the system and listed him as the number two starter in the 2029 rotation (with the best slider and changeup in the system):

Brecht is a fireballing righthander with questions around his command and below-average fastball shape. A talented athlete with a prototype starter’s build, Brecht looks the part on the mound. … His fastball sits in the 96-97 mph range and has been up to 101 with hard cutting action that has made his fastball both a miss and groundball-inducing pitch. He throws a high-80s slider more frequently than his fastball, and over the offseason worked to add multiple shapes to the pitch. One is a shorter gyro offering and the second a breaking ball with more sweep. Whichever variant he settles on should have double-plus upside given his feel to spin the ball at high velocities.

Keith Law of the Athletic ranked Brecht fifth in the system earlier this month:

Brecht came into the Rockies’ system out of the University of Iowa, where he was also a wide receiver, with relatively little pitching development behind him, so it was almost like he was a high school pitcher in a 21-year-old college football player’s body. When he pitched in 2025, he was in the mid to upper 90s again with his four-seamer, mostly throwing that and the slider, but he mixed in a new-ish splitter that looks like a real weapon for him, and the Rockies have worked with him on tunneling his pitches to get more deception out of his delivery. His walk rate is too high, at 13.5 percent, as he tends to miss by a lot when he misses. He also hit the injured list for about two months with a back injury he may have suffered while lifting. (Shakes head in general direction of football.) He’s athletic with a loose arm, has the makings of three pitches and is still pretty young in pitching years. There’s serious reliever risk here, to be clear, but if the Rockies can make him a starter, it’s a high-upside package.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs ranks Brecht 3rd in the system as a 45+ FV player after ranking him 13th overall among draft prospects, complete with an 80 future grade on the slider (70 present), a 60 future fastball grade, and a 55 future splitter grade:

Walks have been an enormous problem for Brecht. He had more walks than inning pitched as a freshman, and 135 walks in 178 career innings for the Hawkeyes. He also had among the best stuff in the 2024 draft class, and has a rare combination of physicality and athleticism.

Brecht will sit 96 (he was 95-98 during instructs) and has touched 101. He has a relatively short stride down the mound for someone as big and athletic as he is, and his generic three-quarters slot has a negative impact on his fastball’s shape and movement. It plays well below an average pitch even though it has plus-plus velocity. Whatever can be done to help Brecht command his fastball or improve its movement will ideally be implemented without altering his slider, which is an 80-grade SOB that evokes Dinelson Lamet‘s upper-80s power breaker. Brecht also has a goofy low-90s changeup with big tail and fade. His secondary pitches diverge in such a way that makes it hard to stay on both of them at the same time.

Built like a marble statue at 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, Brecht hasn’t been focused on baseball for very long and also hasn’t yet been in a developmental environment that can max him out, though that might still be true because Colorado’s developmental track record for arms isn’t great. The gap between where he is as a pitcher right now and what he could be is very large. There is precedent for teams solving issues like Brecht’s (Carlos Rodón’s command was a mess, too, though maybe not this bad), and he has enormous upside if someone can. Those right tail outcomes are absolutely baked into his FV grade, as is Brecht’s risk. At worst, Brecht looks like a potential late-inning reliever who works off of his secondary pitches more than his fastball. He could be a three-pitch mid-rotation stalwart if he and Colorado can find better control.

Brecht was ranked 21st overall in the 2024 draft by MLB Pipeline and they rank him fifth in the system as a 50 FV player with plus-plus (70) grades on both the fastball and slider (and a 50 grade on the splitter):

Brecht’s fastball and slider combination are downright nasty when he’s locked in. His fastball sits in the 96-99 mph range and he touches triple digits. It can have good running action to it, though he struggles to locate it and it can straighten out. His slider is virtually unhittable, thrown up to 91 mph with a lot of horizontal and vertical action, eliciting a 56 percent miss rate last year. He doesn’t throw his low-90s splitter very often and he doesn’t have great feel for it.

The biggest hurdle for Brecht to clear will be his command and control, as he left Iowa with a career 6.8 BB/9 mark. The cause for optimism on that front — fueling the belief that he can develop into being a mid-rotation starter — is that he’s a premium athlete and is committed to being more than just a pure thrower. There’s reliever risk for sure, but he could also take a huge step forward with more insightful instruction.

Shaun Kernahan of Three Quarter Slot wrote this about Brecht earlier this year:

The raw arm strength is impossible to miss, and Brecht’s fastball–slider pairing remains one of the loudest pure stuff combinations in the system. The heater regularly climbs into the upper-90s with explosive life out of a three-quarters slot, jumping on hitters late and overpowering barrels when he stays on line. The breaking ball — a hard, cutter-leaning slider — is the true separator, flashing sharp vertical action and generating swing-and-miss against both right- and left-handed hitters. Athleticism shows up throughout the delivery, from the leg drive to the arm speed, and there are flashes of a power changeup with real dip that hint at a more complete arsenal.

The obstacle has consistently been strike execution. Fastball location wanders, command lags behind the raw stuff, and outings can unravel when he falls behind counts. Control grades remain modest and true command is still well below where it needs to be for a reliable starter profile. The two-sport background explains some of the inconsistency, but it also fuels optimism that continued reps and focus could stabilize the operation. If the strike throwing never fully comes, the fallback is a high-octane power reliever capable of shortening games. If it does, the athleticism and pitch quality give him a legitimate starter path with bat-missing upside that few arms can match.

In terms of pure stuff and ceiling, Brecht is by far the best Rockies pitching prospect. His slider is probably the filthiest pitch in the system and his fastball is possibly the best in the org as well. Of course, to reach that ceiling, Brecht will need to demonstrate sufficient command to get upper-minors hitters out and go deep into games regularly. If he isn’t able to do that, Brecht’s stuff still works in a high-leverage relief role as a fallback.

It’s an exciting profile to be sure, though of course the risk is high that Brecht busts to some degree. After all, he’s only pitched Low-A, walking over five batters per nine innings, and has yet to hold a starter’s workload over a full year. Still, I ranked Brecht third on my list as a 50 FV player as a raw high upside starting pitcher or late inning reliever. Brecht should move up to High-A this year, where perhaps some of those questions about the profile will be addressed. An arm like this is worth a little extra time to bake, so I’d estimate a 2-3 year timeline from now for Brecht to the big leagues (if he’s a starter).

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