Dalton and Tristi's NBA mock draft 1.0: Who Warriors, Kings pick in first round

Dalton and Tristi's NBA mock draft 1.0: Who Warriors, Kings pick in first round originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area

The Washington Wizards officially are on the clock. In a loaded class that can be full of future stars, the Wizards will get to choose first with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. 

For the Kings and Warriors, the ping pong balls didn’t bring the same kind of luck. 

The Kings entered the draft lottery with the No. 5 pick and dropped to No. 7. To make matters worse, the Jazz, whom the Kings were tied with and lost a coin toss to at the end of the season, jumped to No. 2. The Warriors stood pat, starting at No. 11 and leaving the lottery with the same pick.

Can the Kings find a franchise savior? Will the Warriors add a player who can help Steph Curry enough as a rookie? Dalton Johnson and Tristi Rodriguez try their hand at all 30 first-round picks in our mock draft 1.0.

1. Washington Wizards: AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU 

Adding Dybantsa to a possible team of Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson, Kyshawn George and Will Riley would have the Wizards finally finding some magic in D.C. Dybantsa has the makings of a franchise star, and the Wizards have the young players to build something special. –Dalton Johnson

2. Utah Jazz: Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas

While Utahns certainly would have welcomed AJ Dybansta back home to begin his pro career after finishing high school there and then competing at BYU, they’ll be fully content with Darryn Peterson’s services. That Peterson-Keyonte George backcourt duo is going to be a nightmare for opponents. – Tristi Rodriguez

3. Memphis Grizzlies: Cam Boozer, PF, Duke 

Boozer’s dad works in the Jazz’s front office and played four seasons for the Bulls. Naturally, his son slots right between both teams as the safest pick in the draft. –DJ

4. Chicago Bulls: Caleb Wilson, PF/C, North Carolina

The Bulls’ surprising 6-1 start to the 2025-26 NBA season (their best since 1996-97) gave Chicago fans something to be excited about, but that didn’t last long. Caleb Wilson’s infectious smile alone will bring a joy back to the Windy City, but his passionate play will give the fanbase something to look forward to for more than just two weeks. – TR

5. Los Angeles Clippers (via IND): Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois 

The Clippers traded 7-foot center Ivica Zubac and wound up with the No. 5 pick in a season where they also acquired All-Star point guard Darius Garland. Wagler’s length at 6-foot-6 and ability to score on and off the ball make him a good fit in the backcourt next to Garland. –DJ

6. Brooklyn Nets: Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas

After falling in the draft lottery once again, the Nets will have to make the best of their situation – whatever that means for a cursed franchise. Not cursed, however, are players under the John Calipari coaching tree entering the NBA (Devin Booker, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Karl-Anthony Towns, Tyrese Maxey, etc.). Maybe a good omen for Brooklyn? Hey, we said maybe. – TR

7. Sacramento Kings: Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston

I mean … it’s written in the name, right? The last time the Kings had a true natural two-way star guard was … Doug Christie in the early 2000s. Now 20-something years later, Christie’s defensive-minded approach hasn’t changed as coach of the Kings. Kingston Flemings is a Doug Christie guy on paper.

While defense is Fleming’s strength, his explosiveness with the rock in his hand can be useful for Sacramento, a team in need of a starting point guard since shipping De’Aaron Fox to NBA playoff paradise alongside Spurs star Victor Wembanyama in San Antonio

Flemings averaged 5.2 assists and 1.8 turnovers in 37 games with Houston. He also averaged 1.5 steals per game, but his defensive style shows more when watching his film versus looking at a stat sheet. His active hands and ball pressure create havoc for opponents. 

The 19-year-old shot an efficient 47.6 percent from the field and 38.7 percent from 3-point range while averaging 16.1 points as Houston’s primary option. – TR

8. Atlanta Hawks (via NO): Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville

Atlanta’s first-round playoff exit exposed some of its weaknesses. The Hawks need another consistent shot creator to pair with CJ McCollum, and Mikel Brown Jr. – whether with his shooting from 30 feet away or his explosive dunks – might be the answer. – TR

9. Dallas Mavericks: Brayden Burries, G, Arizona 

Burries is a combo guard who can slide in as an early contributor and grow alongside the Mavs’ Cooper Flagg-led future as someone who does a bit of everything. As a freshman, Burries led Arizona in total 3-pointers (70) and steals (59). –DJ

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Nate Ament, F, Tennessee 

The Bucks are in a bad place. Giannis Antetokounmpo wants out and they know it, so they might as well take the massive upside swing on Ament. –DJ

11. Golden State Warriors: Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan

Though the Warriors didn’t rise in the draft lottery after a season in which tanking wasn’t their problem, they’re still sitting pretty at No. 11. General manager Mike Dunleavy has never drafted higher than 19, and this is the move that will kick off such an important offseason. Taking Lendeborg is the safe pick. But that doesn’t mean upside is out the window. 

Lendeborg is 23 years old and will be 24 before playing in an NBA game. So what? As a shooter, Lendeborg has improved from 3-point range every season. He went from shooting 35.7 percent from three on 1.9 attempts per game his final year at UAB to taking 4.5 threes per game at 37.2-percent clip. 

The versatile forward measured in a tad under 6-foot-9 barefoot at the combine and is a strong 241 pounds with a wingspan over 7-foot-3. If the Warriors keep their pick, they need a rookie that will be part of the rotation. Lendeborg is the first answer. –DJ

12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Aday Mara, C, Michigan

OKC’s cap crunch might lead to some tough decisions around Isaiah Hartenstein, meaning they could be on the hunt for a new big. Aday Mara could soak up some of those frontcourt minutes alongside Chet Holmgren. — TR

13. Miami Heat: Labaron Philon Jr., G, Alabama 

The Heat will take the best player available and be happy Philon is there. Philon made the leap as a sophomore and averaged 22.0 points and 5.0 assists per game on 50.1-percent shooting with a 39.9 3-point percentage. –DJ

14. Charlotte Hornets: Morez Johnson Jr., PF/C, Michigan

The Hornets need to strengthen their frontcourt depth with a floor-spacing big, and they can find that in the versatile and physical Morez Johnson Jr. — TR

15. Chicago Bulls (via POR): Cameron Carr, SG, Baylor 

This could be the prospect rising up draft boards after measuring in at 6-foot-4.5 barefoot at the combine with a wingspan just under 7-foot-1. Carr was a scoring machine as a junior at Baylor, averaging 18.9 points per game on 49.4/37.4/80.1 shooting splits. –DJ

16. Memphis Grizzlies (via PHX): Chris Cenac Jr., PF/C, Houston

As Memphis focuses on frontcourt athleticism and versatility, Chris Cenac Jr. is a player who can make an impact on both ends of the floor. — TR

17. Oklahoma City Thunder (via PHI): Karim Lopez, F, New Zealand Breakers 

The rich get richer. Lopez has been a pro since he was 14 years old and has an NBA body at 19 with the traits to form a role as a rookie as his shot continues to develop. –DJ

18. Charlotte Hornets (via ORL): Jayden Quaintance, C, Kentucky

As the NBA constantly evolves, one thing that won’t ever go out of style is rim protection and high-level shot blocking. That’s what Jayden Quintance brings with his active and disruptive defense. — TR

19. Toronto Raptors: Allen Graves, PF, Santa Clara 

Graves started just four games as a redshirt freshman at Santa Clara. He’s also seen as an analytics darling, shooting 41.3 percent from three at 6-foot-9 while also averaging 1.9 steals per game. –DJ

20. San Antonio Spurs (via ATL): Hannes Steinbach, PF/C, Washington

An interior menace (as if the Spurs don’t already have one standing 7-feet-4), Hannes Steinbach averaged a nation-leading 11.8 rebounds per game at Washington. — TR

21. Detroit Pistons (via MIN): Meleek Thomas, SG, Arkansas 

The new-age Grit and Grind Pistons need shooting and more scoring. Thomas checks both boxes after averaging 15.6 points per game and shooting 41.6 percent beyond the arc in the same freshman backcourt as Acuff. –DJ

22. Philadelphia 76ers (via HOU): Dailyn Swain, SG/SF, Texas

Ironically enough, one of Dailyn Swain’s NBA comps is Kelly Oubre Jr. The 6-foot-7, 220-pound athletic forward/wing will offer frontcourt support to complement Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. — TR

23. Atlanta Hawks (via CLE): Ebuka Okorie, PG, Stanford 

The Hawks would be adding two of the most interesting guards in the whole draft. Okorie came out of nowhere to average 23.2 points per game as a freshman with the opposing team’s scouting report having all eyes on him. –DJ

24. New York Knicks: Koa Peat, PF/SF, Arizona

Mike Brown appreciates more than anybody a well-rounded player who’s capable of doing a little bit of everything on the floor. Koa Peat is that guy. — TR

25. Los Angeles Lakers: Henri Veesaar, C, North Carolina 

With Luka Doncic leading the Lakers, they need more talent at center. In comes Veesaar, who averaged 17.0 points, 8.7 rebounds and shot 42.7 percent from three as a 7-foot senior. –DJ

26. Denver Nuggets: Bennett Stirtz, PG, Iowa

With a need for increased offensive firepower and facilitation when Jamal Murray sits, Bennett Stirtz is an option as a high-IQ playmaker and shooter for Denver. — TR

27. Boston Celtics: Amari Allen, Wing, Alabama 

Josh Hart averaged 16.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in four games against the Celtics this season, plus went 11 of 23 on 3-pointers. Here’s how they can find their version of Hart. –DJ

28. Minnesota Timberwolves (via DET): Christian Anderson, PG, Texas Tech

Despite drafting Rob Dillingham in 2025, the Wolves could use Christian Anderson to ease the creative burden on Anthony Edwards. — TR

29. Cleveland Cavaliers (via SA) – Isaiah Evans, Wing, Duke 

It’s a wing league, and Evans has all the looks of a trusted shooter on the wing who averaged 15.0 points per game as a sophomore and shot 38 percent in his two years at Duke. Evans can get forgotten because of Boozer, but he was a big reason why Duke had the kind of success it did last season. –DJ

30. Dallas Mavericks (via OKC): Tarris Reed Jr., PF/C, UConn

Tarris Reed Jr. turned heads during the NCAA tournament en route to an appearance in the national championship game, recording four double-doubles during March Madness. — TR

There were things out of his control, but Daryl Morey’s tenure had plenty of unforced errors

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 15: President of basketball operations Daryl Morey participates in a press conference before a game between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Washington Capitals at the Wells Fargo Center on December 15, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images) | Getty Images

When Daryl Morey was hired by the Sixers as president of basketball operations immediately following the NBA bubble in 2020, Philadelphia fans rejoiced. It felt like a savior was joining the front office to right the ship and deliver the championship Morey’s former colleague Sam Hinkie longed for when facilitating The Process.

Morey was handed a starting five of Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson, Tobias Harris, Al Horford and Joel Embiid, a group designed to compete in the early 2000s, not the three-point and space-heavy offense the league was trending towards at the turn of the decade.

Fast forward to 2026, Embiid and Morey were the only two remaining from that original group, and the Sixers have still not made it out of the second round of the playoffs.

And now, Morey is gone. The team announced on Tuesday they’ve parted ways with the long-time executive after six seasons.

Unfortunately, the Sixers find themselves in a dire cap situation that leaves very few doors open in terms of drastically changing the roster for next season — in large part thanks to Morey and ownership.

But first, the things that Morey could not control that led us here:

  • Embiid’s health was perhaps the biggest factor into yet another unsuccessful season in 2025-26. The center missed 44 games during the regular season and three games in the playoffs. Even with the unlucky nature of the injuries, having your highest-earning player’s status be so unpredictable on a game-to-game basis makes the job for any executive more difficult.
  • Paul George was suspended 25 games during the middle of the season for violating the terms of the NBA/NBPA Anti-Drug Program. Yes, the rest might have led him to perform at a high level during the playoffs. But who knows how helpful George would have been during those games to earn a higher seed in the East, perhaps avoid the Play-In and tougher side of the bracket altogether? The Sixers went 13-12 in the games he missed, where four losses were within a 15-point margin.
  • Tyrese Maxey injured his right pinky finger on March 7 against the Hawks late in the game after a collision with Adem Bona. He missed 10 games and the Sixers went 6-4 without him thanks to a relatively light schedule during that stretch. Although he put on strong performances after returning, it appeared to bother him and affect his shot selection in round two against the New York Knicks.

With regards to these uncontrollable factors, almost every other failure from the Sixers season can be attributed to Morey’s actions — or inactions — when constructing the roster.

It was hard to ignore the team’s most glaring issue this playoff run — depth. Between both the Celtics and Knicks series, the Sixers’ bench got outscored 394-224. No one on the bench scored more than eight points in any game against New York, as Nick Nurse heavily relied on his starters.

The issue for Morey is when you canvass the league and spot a full playoff-caliber bench unit of former Sixers that he let go for one reason or another, and think what a series of miscalculations and misevaluations he made.

Julian Champagnie was on a two-way deal with the Sixers in 2022-23, spent most of the season with the Delaware Blue Coats and averaged 14.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.5 threes, 1.9 assists, 0.9 blocks and 0.6 steals in 18 appearances. He also showed in two games for the Sixers, not making a shot on two attempts. He was waived on Feb. 14, 2023.

Although the numbers don’t necessarily pop, it’s the motive behind his release which draws ire with the front office’s decision-making.

It would have taken some optimistic projecting from Morey to foresee just how valuable Champagnie is to the Spurs’ current day team, but no GM in the league would have given Mac McClung (a 6-foot-2 guard who can’t shoot) a higher chance to stick in the NBA over Champagnie (a 6-foot-7 wing who can rebound and had shooting potential). McClung won the Slam Dunk contest in a Sixers jersey that season, but has played in 15 NBA games in the years since. Champagnie started 68 games for a 62-win team in 2025-26.

Champagnie was signed by the Spurs on a two-way contract just two days after he was waived by the Sixers. In this year’s playoffs, he has been one of the best shooters in the league and has been the second-leading rebounder on the team behind Victor Wembanyama, naturally.

Isaiah Joe was drafted in the second round by the Sixers in 2020, Morey’s first draft in Philadelphia. He signed a three-year deal and was instantly one of the best shooters on the roster. He played 41 games his rookie season, shooting 36% from three. His second year, he played 55 games and shot 33% from three, but saw only 11 minutes per game under Doc Rivers.

Morey chose to cut Joe before the 2023-24 season for roster flexibility amidst a crowded depth chart, and likely as a way to get under the luxury tax. Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton and Danuel House Jr. were the guards rostered at the time. Morey spent three second-round picks to acquire Buddy Hield at the trade deadline that season, a player with a very similar skillset to Joe. Hield had mixed results as a Sixer, to say the least.

Joe got picked up by the Oklahoma City Thunder and immediately saw a jump in playing time and his shooting splits from deep. Joe has always been undersized, but he flashed potential and always gave effort defensively. Playing in a system like the Thunder’s has allowed him to blossom into a lethal bench weapon that we are seeing in this year’s playoffs.

Paul Reed (aka Bball Paul) was drafted by Morey late in the second of the 2020 draft. Thanks to Rivers, we did not see many minutes of Reed until the end of the 2022-23 regular season and playoffs, where we saw real flashes of his extreme athleticism. Eventually, he morphed into a reliable backup big man for Embiid the following season, playing all 82 games in 2023-24 and having a strong playoff run as Embiid recovered from a sprained LCL.

By no means was Reed a perfect player as he was susceptible to some questionable decision making, but his physical presence on the glass and in the paint could not be denied and he flashed plenty of skill.

The Sixers waived him in the summer of 2024 for … cap flexibility. The $7.7 million Reed was slated to earn that year from the Sixers was non-guaranteed, so the Sixers used part of that money to help them sign Caleb Martin. The following trade deadline, Morey traded Martin to the Dallas Mavericks for Quentin Grimes.

Reed is now a valuable member of the Detroit Pistons, who earned the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference this season. Despite spot minutes in the playoffs, the Pistons have outscored their opponents by 11 when he is on the court.

Jared McCain, the 16th overall selection in the 2024 draft, was traded to the Thunder before the deadline for the 22nd overall pick in the 2026 draft and three second-rounders. As a rookie in 2024-25, McCain exploded in the regular season for 15.3 points, 2.6 assists and 2.4 rebounds per game on 38% shooting from deep before tearing his meniscus in December.

As he recovered, fans were enticed by the idea of seeing McCain with a healthy and regrouped roster after the doldrums of the 2024-25 season in Philadelphia. Unfortunately, McCain tore the UCL in his right thumb during training camp, leading to minimal playing time and trust amongst the coaching staff once he recovered and required time to shake off the rust.

McCain is now thriving with the Thunder, creating runs on his own with a scorching microwave scoring ability in the playoffs. He is leading the NBA in playoff three-point percentage amongst remaining teams at 54.2%. Hindsight is obviously 20/20, but McCain’s performance is making Morey’s decision look worse:

“I’m quite confident we were selling high,” Morey said. “Obviously, time will tell. We weren’t looking to sell. I’ll be frank. Teams came to us with aggressive offers for him. You could say, ‘Yeah, that’s because he’s a good player.’ I agree with that. We thought this return was above, for the future value of our franchise, what we could get. The only higher point would’ve been during his run last season. Otherwise, we feel like we did time this well.” (click here for more)

Whether you agree with each decision given the context is one thing, but to ignore the idea that if even two of these four playoff-level role players were still on the Sixers, there’s a chance this year’s playoff run — and future outlook of the team — looks much better from a depth perspective.

Instead, Morey has shackled the Sixers from a cap standpoint, signing George to a max contract through the 2027-28 season, then extending Embiid on a max deal with a player option for 2028-29. This means the Sixers now have almost 90% of their cap space tied to three players; the aforementioned two and Maxey.

They are $14 million under the luxury tax, meaning they will likely be able to only re-sign one of their three outgoing unrestricted free agents — Quentin Grimes, Kelly Oubre Jr. or Andre Drummond. Outside of that, the team will have to work around the margins with the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (if they still below the tax), worth $15 million, and minimum contracts. That does not sound like a path towards bringing in a playoff-caliber bench unit, at least not through free agency.

The new executive in charge should not trade Embiid, as doing so could include attaching draft assets, which could randomly end up in the top five given the new draft lottery odds. Barring an obscene act of desperation, this seems unlikely according to many reports.

Trading George might not be an awful idea, as long as it does not jeopardize the team-building capabilities down the line, especially for when Maxey and VJ Edgecombe are both in their primes concurrently. Finding a trade partner with a salary close to George’s might be worth another post in its entirety.

The new front office should have its sights on the draft, where Morey had a strong history running the war room for the Sixers. Click here to see some prospects Harrison Grimm has circled for the Sixers at pick 22.

For the mess Morey seemingly saved the Sixers from in 2020, he has thrown them right back in it for the 2026 offseason. Even with Morey gone, it’s worth noting the issues in front of the Sixers will be there no matter the man or woman tasked in captaining the ship. The question becomes which direction Josh Harris wants to go?

There could be a repeated run-it-back strategy with two of the riskiest players in the NBA from a health standpoint for as long as their talent sustains. With Harris deciding to start fresh, it could suggest a shift to the younger portion of the roster, building around Maxey and Edgecombe, without pressure to contend. Or maybe the dual timeline continues … for now.

Daryl Morey didn’t turn out to be the savior who got the Sixers back to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2001.

And now his successor has a lot to clean up.

Minor league update for 5/12/26

PITTSBURGH, PA - July 1998: MANDATORY CREDIT Bill Tompkins/Getty Images Paula Cole performing during the LILITH Music festival July 1998 in Pittsburgh. (Photo by Bill Tompkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Hickory starter Moises Morales allowed three runs in six innings, striking out six and walking one.

Hector Osorio was 2 for 4 with a walk. Yolfran Castillo was 2 for 4 with a walk. Marcos Torres doubled. Daniel Flames had a hit. Josh Springer had a hit.

Hickory box score

Hub City starter Aidan Curry allowed four runs in four innings, including a home run, while striking out seven and walking two.

Maxton Martin was 3 for 6 with a double. Malcolm Moore was 2 for 5 with a double and a homer. Rafe Perich homered and walked twice. Paxton Kling doubled. Gleider Figuereo had a homer and a walk. Yeison Morrobel had a pair of hits and a walk.

Hub City box score

For Frisco, starter Josh Trentadue went 1.2 innings, allowing a grand slam, walking one and striking out one. Ryan Lobus struck out one in an inning of work.

Dylan Dreiling doubled and walked.

Frisco box score

Round Rock starter Austin Gomber walked four and struck out three in 5.1 IP, allowing four runs. Alexis Diaz retired the two batters he faced. Chris Martin, starting a rehab assignment, faced six batters, retired two of them, and gave up four runs on four hits, including two homers. Marc Church walked one and allowed a run in 1.1 IP.

Cam Cauley walked four times and stole a base.

Round Rock box score

Thoughts on a 7-4 Rangers win

ARLINGTON, TX - MAY 12: Joc Pederson #3 of the Texas Rangers celebrates his home run with Brandon Nimmo #24 of the Texas Rangers during the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Kelcee Skoug/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Rangers 7, D-Backs 4

  • And back in the win column are our Texas Rangers.
  • With a bunch of runs scored, which is nice.
  • On the heels of a bullpen game, the Rangers…I hesitate to say “needed” length from MacKenzie Gore in his start, given that there were probably only two relievers who were unavailable. But they definitely wanted to get a lot of innings out of Gore, to avoid further taxing the bullpen.
  • One December, when my daughter, Rowan, was in kindergarten, I asked my wife what she wanted for Christmas.
  • She said, “For Christmas, I want Rowan to pick up her room, because it makes me sad and mad that her room is always so messy.”
  • Rowan piped up and said, “You can’t get that for Christmas, mommy, because that’s a service, not a good, and Santa brings goods for Christmas, not services. Also, its a want, not a need, because you want me to pick up my room, but I don’t need to do it.”
  • Whether it twas a want or a need, Gore came through for the Rangers in spades, logging eight innings, allowing just one run, giving up three hits and one walk, striking out five.
  • Gore’s inconsistency when it comes to throwing strikes has been something we’ve talked about a fair amount, but that was not an issue on Tuesday. Of Gore’s 95 pitches, 63 were for strikes.
  • Gore wasn’t missing bats, either. He had just 8 swings and misses, total.
  • Ironically, given that the broadcast was discussing his D-Back counterpart Zac “Ten” Gallen’s ridiculously low whiff rate on the fastball this season, Gore got zero whiffs on the 26 fastballs he threw.
  • Whether this was a deliberate strategy Gore was utilizing, throwing more strikes in order to try to be as efficient as possible in order to work deeper into the game, or just serendipity, it worked. The D-Backs did have some hard hit balls off of him — most notably Ildemaro Vargas’s second inning home run — but Arizona balls in play tended to find gloves.
  • What was a blowout turned into, well, not a blowout in the ninth.
  • Gavin Collyer was summoned to pitch the ninth on what was Collyer’s 25th birthday, and it was not a birthday he will want to remember.
  • Collyer walked Corbin Carroll on five pitches, walked someone named Tim Tawa on four pitches, then walked Nolan Arenado on five pitches, with a wild pitch mixed into the Arenado plate appearance. With the bases loaded, Vargas singled to make it a 7-2 game, at that was the end of Collyer’s outing. Jacob Latz replaced Collyer and retired all three batters he faced, though a run scored on the first out, a fielder’s choice, and the second out, a sac fly, giving us the ultimate 7-4 result.
  • Gavin Collyer has, prior to 2026, had a walk problem. Doing a better job of throwing strikes is what had him in the mix in spring training, and is what earned him a callup when the Rangers needed a bullpen arm. He has now hit or walked 10 of the 42 batters he has faced in the majors.
  • The three runs he got dinged for are the first runs he’s allowed in his major league career. That said, Collyer is going to have to tighten things up. Walking three straight batters in the ninth inning with a big lead is going to kick you out of a manager’s tree of trust faster than just about anything.
  • Collyer has pitched in 12 major league games. He has walked the first batter he faced in three of those 12 games, and hit the first batter he faced twice. That’s also not something that is going to make a manager real comfortable.
  • Offensively, the Rangers rebounded well after being shut out on Monday. Skip Schumaker shook things up, putting Joc Pederson in the leadoff spot, and Pederson responded with a homer on the second pitch Gallen threw.
  • With Pederson, Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager in the top three spots, the Rangers had three lefties in a row, but that alignment does work better, I think, than having Pederson and Evan Carter back-to-back, as Schumaker had been doing. A lefty brought into the game, particularly in the middle innings, to face Pederson and Carter either results in two guys who can’t hit lefties facing a lefty, or else Schumaker pinch hitting for one or both of them, which weakens the lineup overall, particularly if/when those spots come back around later in the game against a righthanded reliever. If lefty is brought in to face Pederson, Nimmo and Seager, though, Pederson likely gets pinch hit for, Nimmo has minimal platoon splits, and Corey Seager is Corey Seager. It doesn’t mean that the opponent won’t go with a lefty in that situation, but the impact is lessened.
  • Jake Burger, mired in a bad slump, had three singles and a walk, and while none of the singles were exactly stung, he made contact and got on base, and I’ll take that.
  • Ezequiel Duran had one of the most fortunate home runs you’ll see, going the opposite way with a pop fly that was just 92.4 mph off the bat, and that barely made it over the wall down the line in right field. Per Statcast, the xBA on that ball was .060.
  • But we’ll take it.
  • The Rangers chased Gallen in the fifth. A Nimmo one out triple was followed by a slow Seager roller, with the D-Backs unsuccessfully trying to get Nimmo at the plate. A Josh Jung single, an Evan Carter 4-3, and an Ezequiel Duran infield single (that I think probably should have been an E6) made it 5-1 and had Torey Lovullo go to the pen. Alejandro Osuna and Jake Burger singles made it 7-1, and the rout was on, at least until the ninth.
  • Osuna ended up stealing third that inning on a delayed steal, where the third baseman was far enough off the bag that he was able to get his secondary lead and then, after the pitch was thrown, just keep going to third. It didn’t end up mattering, as Kyle Higashioka struck out for the final out, but it was the kind of heads-up play that makes you appreciate what Osuna brings.
  • The dark cloud to the offensive outburst is that Brandon Nimmo, who had three hits, turned his ankle on an infield single in the sixth. He initially stayed in the game but was ultimately pulled for pinch runner Sam Haggerty. The Rangers say he is day-to-day, though I’m guessing he sits in the series finale on Wednesday, giving him, with Thursday’s off day, two days to rest the ankle.
  • MacKenzie Gore topped out at 96.7 mph with his fastball, averaging 94.8 mph. Gavin Collyer’s fastball touched 98.0 mph. Jacob Latz hit 95.7 mph with his fastball.
  • Joc Pederson’s leadoff homer was 109.1 mph off the bat. Brandon Nimmo had a 108.3 mph triple and a 107.1 mph single.
  • Now let’s win the rubber game, in what will be my first game at the Shed in 2026.

Braves 5, Cubs 2: It’s hard to win when you have only one hit

Look at it this way. At least the Cubs scored some runs in this game.

Not enough runs, as they lost to the Braves 5-2 in the series opener in Atlanta.

Colin Rea and Grant Holmes matched zeroes through two innings, and the Cubs failed to score in the top of the third. The Braves got on the board in the bottom of that inning on a single by Dominic Smith (who you might remember from a brief appearance as a Cub in Spring Training 2024), a ground out advancing him and an RBI single by Mike Yastrzemski.

The Cubs took the lead in the top of the fourth. With one out, Alex Bregman challenged a pitch and was incorrect. That was the Cubs’ second wrong challenge of the game, and I’ll get to the other one later.

That didn’t hurt Bregman’s at-bat, as he smacked his fourth homer of the year, making it 1-1 [VIDEO].

So that was good. It broke a 23-inning scoreless streak for the Cubs and was Bregman’s first home run since April 24, a span of 62 plate appearances. As it would turn out, that was the Cubs’ only hit.

Perhaps that homer rattled Holmes, as he walked the next three hitters, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch. So the Cubs had the bases loaded with one out. This is exactly where a team has to go for it, this is an excellent scoring opportunity, especially for a team that’s had trouble scoring recently.

Instead, they got only one more run, when Moisés Ballesteros beat a double-play relay [VIDEO].

So the Cubs had a 2-1 lead going to the bottom of the fourth, and Rea had been dealing, but that ended in the Atlanta half of the inning, which included home runs by two players (Austin Riley and Yastrzemski) who both came into the game with BA’s below .213. For Yastrzemski, it was his first home run of the season in more than 125 plate appearances.

With the score 4-2 due to the homers, Ryan Rolison relieved Rea with two runners on and one out and allowed an RBI single to Matt Olson, making it 5-2.

And that, basically, was that. Cubs relievers (Rolison, Jacob Webb and Trent Thornton) threw 3.2 shutout innings with four strikeouts. Braves relievers threw five no-hit innings and allowed one further baserunner after the fourth (a one-out walk by Nico Hoerner in the fifth).

The Cubs did flash some glove in this game or the score might have been worse.

Pete Crow-Armstrong with a great running catch to end the second inning [VIDEO].

Nico with a nice diving stop in the third [VIDEO].

And two pickoffs, one by Rea and this one by Rolison in the fifth [VIDEO].

Now I’d like to talk a bit about the Cubs’ first ABS challenge of the game, made by Ballesteros in the first inning. Here’s the situation and pitch [VIDEO].

That’s the ninth pitch of the game. There’s nobody on base, the game is scoreless and there’s one out. As Jim Deshaies said after Ballesteros was wrong on that one, if you’re going to challenge in that situation, you have to be really, really sure that you’re right. The pitch was close but it wasn’t that close. Now, the lack of challenges didn’t really have any impact on the result of this game, but this should be a learning experience for the young catcher. Ballesteros had twogood challenge games in Spring Training, but… this is a different story.

More on the Cubs getting just one hit, from BCB’s JohnW53:

The Cubs had been held to one hit in 68 previously games since 1901, most recently Sept 18 of last year, in a 1-0 loss at Cincinnati.

They had scored two runs in five of the 68, winning the first three, vs. the Dodgers at home in 1902 (2-0), at St. Louis in 1908 (2-0) and at home vs. the Reds in 1937 (2-1). They also beat the Dodgers at home, 3-2, in 1914.

The two losses with two runs were by 8-2 at Cincinnati in 1971 and by 4-2 at home vs. the Royals on Aug. 21, 2021.

They now have been one-hit five times since then and did not score in any of the games.

They did not score in 55 of the 69 games. They scored once in eight games – and won one of them, in Game 1 of a Fourth of July doubleheader at Pittsburgh in 1906. The hit, by Jimmy Slagle, came in the ninth inning and he scored the run.

In that 2021 loss to the Royals, the only Cubs hit was also a home run, a two-run job by Patrick Wisdom.

The offense has been moribund for three games now, with a total of two runs and eight hits. This is too good of an offense to do that for very long, and eventually they will come out of it.

And… yeah, gotta say this: The Cubs had a 10-game winning streak, lost three in a row, then won 10 straight again. Now they’ve lost three in a row again. You don’t suppose…

Well, of course it’s very unlikely. But that’s why they play the games.

The Cubs will look to snap that three-game streak Wednesday evening in Atlanta. Shōta Imanaga will start for the Cubs and rookie JR Ritchie goes for the Braves. Game time Wednesday is again 6:15 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

Are the Braves going to find another backup catcher?

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 18: Reese McGuire #30 of the Chicago White Sox hits an rbi single scoring Everson Pereira #28 against the Athletics in the top of the second inning of a major league baseball game at Sutter Health Park on April 18, 2026 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images) | Getty Images

In the offseason, the Braves knew that there’d be some issues with Sean Murphy’s availability. They signed Jonah Heim on February 10. That move turned into 45 PAs for Heim, where he ended up barely above replacement thanks to A) one big game at Coors Field in his final outing with the team and B) outhitting his .278 xwOBA over those 45 PAs. Then, Heim was DFAed and traded to the Athletics when Murphy was activated from the Injured List.

Heim was signed when the Braves knew Murphy would be out for about a month of regular season action. Now, Murphy is going to be out about twice as long. The Braves did re-sign Sandy Leon, but that’s likely a stopgap: they didn’t go to Leon as the backup earlier, so it’d be strange to think that they now plan to rely on Leon for an even longer period. Chadwick Tromp is once again in the organization, but the Braves neither relied on him in April, nor opted to select his contract instead of re-signing Leon, so I’m not sure if he’s the team’s preference to hang out on the roster and catch games against southpaws and such up until the All-Star Break or whatever.

Who does that leave, though? It’d be funny if the Braves simply re-acquired Heim, especially since he’s not really playing for his new team (he’s made one start in ten days, along with a couple of pinch-hit appearances). On top of that, Heim didn’t really show anything on either side of the ball to make him an exciting (re-)acquisition; other than familiarity, his career looks to be continuing in its 2024-2025 sub-replacement vein, rather than a return to form. But, it’s not clear what options the Braves have overall that aren’t Leon or Tromp.

Austin Wynns was an Athletics roster casualty after being supplanted by Heim. The problem with Wynns is that the 35-year-old journeyman backup catcher isn’t actually good at anything, clocking in as a typical backup catcher bat without any notable framing skills. After that, I don’t know. That’s why I’m asking the question. Other guys that are floating around include Austin Barnes and Reese McGuire; I couldn’t find other MLB veterans that re-entered the waiver wire this year. Barnes is 36 and may still be an okay framer, but his overall defensive profile has taken a tumble in his mid-30s; he was released by the Mets in Spring Training. McGuire actually got into a few games for the White Sox this year, and his framing is non-horrible, but no team has shown any interest in him since he was cut a few weeks ago.

Who else ya got?

What’s your concern level with Aidan Miller?

HARRISBURG, PA - JUNE 03: Aidan Miller #10 of the Reading Fightin Phils stands on third base during the game between the Reading Fightin Phils and the Harrisburg Senators at FNB Field on Tuesday, June 3, 2025 in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Kyle Mace/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)

Imagine being told in the offseason that Alec Bohm would be hitting .180 with a .527 OPS through the Phillies first 41 games. One of your first thoughts after a slew of expletives would probably have been “well at least that’s giving Aidan Miller a golden opportunity”, and you wouldn’t have been wrong!

But that would have been before knowing about Aidan Miller’s back injury. The mysterious ailment, which the Phillies have declined to go into detail about, has prevented Miller from appearing in any games since the end of spring training. In fact, he has not even swung a bat yet and has not advanced to baseball activities as was reported on May 6th by TGP contributor Jeff Kerr.

Two days later, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki mentioned on The Phillies Show podcast that Miller had suffered what Zolecki calls a “setback” after starting to field ground balls and ramp up baseball activities.

The shroud of mystery over the injury adds to the worry, but as Zolecki mentions in the video clip, this perhaps could be the Phillies exercising extreme caution with a top prospect. They obviously showed their willingness to do so with how they handled Andrew Painter’s elbow injury in 2023. Of course, these are two different injuries to two different players as elucidated by Phillies prospect expert Matt Winkelman.

Nevertheless, Miller’s lack of progress is concerning, especially at a time in which he very well may have been on the doorstep of his MLB debut. Now his debut could be delayed until much later in the season than originally expected or into 2027. It’s an uncomfortable situation to be in considering many had pegged Miller as the Phillies likely 2027 starting third baseman with Bohm’s impending free agency following the 2026 season. So, what is your concern level with Aidan Miller?

The Orioles cannot afford to mess with Jackson Holliday’s development

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 26: Jackson Holliday #7 of the Baltimore Orioles warms up prior to the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Friday, September 26, 2025 in New York, New York. (Photo by Michael Urakami/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Coby Mayo delivered the biggest hit of his young career on Monday with two on and the Orioles trailing by two. Mayo launched a go-ahead three-run home run in a game that he likely never would have played in if Samuel Basallo felt well enough to go. The Orioles scratched Basallo after the catcher reported some knee soreness, and Craig Albernaz penciled Mayo into the designated hitter slot.

It’s likely not a coincidence that Mayo came up with the big knock in a game where he had little time to think. The 24-year-old told the MASN broadcast booth that he only found out he was starting about an hour before the first pitch. Mayo admitted that he had not gone through his usual routine, and he pointed to a recent Trea Turner quote about experiencing success after not taking his pregame swings.

Mayo also had the luxury of not pretending to be a third baseman. That may sound a little harsh, but it’s no secret that Mayo remains a work in progress at the hot corner. I haven’t met anyone that thinks learning a defensive position on the fly has helped Mayo at the dish. There’s a considerable probability that the defensive anxiety has contributed to his .165/.230/.311 slash line.

The Orioles have to be aware of this. However, they also know that Mayo has a bat worth saving and that Pete Alonso is under contract for the next five years. Jordan Westburg could very well be lost for the season, and Basallo has already begun to demand at bats when he’s not behind the dish. The only place for Mayo is at third. For better or worse, if he wants at bats, a majority have to come from third base.

I get this. You probably do too. It’s unfortunate for Mayo, but that’s the reality for a former fourth-round pick trying to make it in the majors.

I don’t get how the Orioles could look at the negative impact that Coby Mayo has felt and still feel comfortable asking Jackson Holliday to play third base during his latest rehab assignment. That’s former first-overall pick Jackson Holliday. A 22-year-old that fast tracked his way to the majors before struggling in his first taste of big league action. That’s the guy recovering from a broken hamate bone that has required multiple rehab attempts. That’s the one with all the potential in the world but only a .229/.300/.360 slash line over 209 games.

The Orioles have always valued defensive versatility under Mike Elias. Craig Albernaz reaffirmed this sentiment a few days ago when asked about Holliday getting reps at third. “If you look at our roster, the versatility is something that we need,” Albernaz said. “He has the ability to play second, short and third, so we’ll see what it looks like when it gets on there.”
Baltimore has historically moved prospects all over the diamond. Westburg, Gunnar Henderson and Joey Ortiz used to rotate infield positions like a merry-go-round, but the same cannot be said for Holliday. Baltimore Sun reporter Jacob Calvin Meyer tweeted out last week that Holliday had only logged 18 innings in his pro career at third base.

Holliday went 0-for-4 while playing third base at Norfolk last night. He’s 0-for-10 through his first four games of this rehab stint.

This isn’t the Orioles calling up Manny Machado to play third base in a pennant race. On one hand, Holliday has yet to display anything close to the defensive instincts that Machado possessed as a prospect. I’m not suggesting that Holliday shares Mayo’s defensive shortcomings, but he’s displayed some early limitations at second base and short. Additionally, the O’s appear to be more than one hole away from competing for a playoff spot.

The team could definitely use a permanent solution at third. Blaze Alexander probably does not have the bat to be playing every day. And while Mayo provided a boost on Monday, there’s a costly throwing error for every go-ahead blast. Jeremiah Jackson made 13 appearances at third base last season, but the Orioles clearly do not trust him at third this season.

Holliday still needs to learn how to hit with one less bone in his hand. The hamate bone surgery often robs players of their power for an extended period of time. Holliday, once fully healthy, will still need to adjust to MLB pitching with slightly less pop in the first half.

The Orioles need a solution at third base, and Mayo has yet to seize the opportunity. That being said, he’s not the only option. Henderson has the ability to play third base, and he should be willing to slide over from time to time if it’s what’s best for the team. Holliday could eventually log some time at shortstop (a position he knows) with Henderson manning the hot corner.

Is there a chance that Holliday excels at third? Definitely. Is there a chance that he returns to second next week and this is never discussed again? Absolutely. Is there a chance that this adventure at third has a negative impact on his performance at the plate? Yes. And that’s an outcome that the Orioles cannot afford to see. Baltimore’s defense has been bad, but the offense has been an even bigger disappointment. The Orioles need the best version of Holliday in their lineup as soon as possible.

We’ll never know how Mayo would have developed if the Orioles immediately put him at first base and kept him there. The same can be said for Ryan Mountle. Holliday has already made his way to the big leagues, but he has yet to master major league pitching. He doesn’t need another hurdle in his path.

There’s no reason to throw in the towel, but this team needs more than decent defense at third base to climb back above .500. The Orioles should resist the temptation to tinker with a rehabbing Holliday if it could lead to long-term issues for the former top pick.

Brayden Burries is a readymade NBA combo guard

Apr 3, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Arizona Wildcats guard Brayden Burries (5) looks on during a practice session ahead of the Final Four of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images | Robert Deutsch-Imagn Images

The NBA has reached the point where having ball handling and secondary creation is necessary throughout your five-man lineups. In watching the Dallas Mavericks at any point throughout the season, it was abundantly clear that they lacked that. This June, the Mavericks will start rectifying that with the NBA Draft. While a combo guard with playmaking upside isn’t the first thing you’d think the Mavs should draft, the choice of Brayden Burries might make itself.

The basics

Brayden Burries (born September 18, 2005) was born and raised in San Bernardino, California. Burries was born into a family of athletes, as his father, Bobby, played basketball at Cal State San Bernardino and is a member of the school’s hall of fame. Not to be out done, his mother Hannah played college softball at the University of Tennessee before playing basketball at CSSB as a grad transfer.

Brayden was a consensus five-star guard coming out of Eleanor Roosevelt High in Eastvale, California (just southeast Los Angeles and north of San Diego). After a standout junior year, Burries was selected to play in the McDonald’s All-American Game. Following his senior year, Burries committed to Tommy Lloyd and the Arizona Wildcats. That turned out to be an excellent decision for Burries, who put together an elite campaign.

In just under 30 minutes per game, Burries averaged 16.1 points per game, which was complimented by five rebounds and two-and-a-half assists per contest. Burries had several fantastic performances away from McKale Center. He scored 28, including 20 in the second half, in a road win at Alabama in December. In January, Burries had 29 in a road win at AJ Dybantsa and BYU. Burries finished as an honorable mention All-American (USBWA and Associated Press), first team All-Big 12 team member and one of five finalists for the Jerry West Award, which is given to the best shooting guard in the country.


The good

  • Burries was an efficiency God throughout the season. Arizona played a system which discouraged three-point shots, as they were bottom five in the country in terms of three-point rate. Even still, Burries was able to get up three pointers on nearly 42% of his shots, making over 39% of them. In the NCAA Tournament, Burries shot 52% from deep while increasing his three-point attempt rate from 42% to 54%. Burries has a good stroke, meaning there should be some scalability here. At just over four attempts per game in college, Burries could reasonably be expected to nearly double his attempts from three in the NBA.
  • As far as guards go, there are few that clear the glass better than Burries. On the season, Burries hauled in 5.9 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. In the NCAA Tournament, that number ballooned to 7.3 defensive rebounds per 40 minutes. The former was in the 94th percentile of guards last year, while the latter was in the 97th percentile, per CBB Analytics. Burries is not the tallest, but he uses his body well and has a knack for the ball to help finish possessions on the glass.
  • On the year, Burries has a 62.3% true shooting percentage, which was 94th percentile among guards. In the NCAA Tournament, Burries had a TS% of 66.5%, which is truly outrageous. There is no area on the floor where Burries was inefficient. Per CBB Analytics data, Burries shot over 56% from two-point range, including over 65% at the rim, 39% from deep and 80% at the foul line. Those are all green light indicators.
Per CBB Analytics
  • Burries has shown flashes on the defensive end that make me believe he’ll be a strong defender in the NBA. When Arizona faced Arkansas in the Sweet Sixteen, Burries drew the primary defensive assignment on Darius Acuff. In that game, Acuff scored 28, but was just eight of nineteen from the floor, including a paltry one-for-five from three-point range. Burries has a good frame, plays physically and has the basketball smarts to beat his man to the spot. Is it likely that he’ll be a “defensive stopper” in the NBA? Maybe not. But there’s a level to Burries where he is an excellent point of attack defender on many of the league’s best guards.

The areas of concern

  • Because Burries shared the floor with Jaden Bradley for most of his minutes, there were not a ton of chances for him to showcase his playmaking chops. He was solid in the secondary creation role, but in the limited time when Burries was on the floor without Bradley, it looked a bit rough. In the Big 12 this year, only Burries, Honor Huff and Donovan Atwell played more than 1,150 minutes and had fewer than 100 total assists. I think there’s more to unlock here, especially on an NBA spaced floor. Think of VJ Edgecombe, who struggled with a compressed floor at Baylor. There’s some of that here, too.
Per CBB Analytics
  • With Burries standing at just 6’4”, there are legitimate concerns about small off-guard’s that don’t have play-initiation pop. It’s not an architype that you would necessarily like to draft in the top ten, but those guys can be very productive NBA players. Derrick White and Quentin Grimes are guys like Burries. Those aren’t generational stars, but to varying levels they are both great in a role.
  • Burries is an older freshman, as he is nearly 21 years old already. Teams will ding him on this, because of course they will, but that’s not a real issue. it’s not like he’s 25 years old.

Fit with the Mavericks

Burries would be a seamless fit for the Mavericks in both the near and the long term. In the near term, Burries slots in nicely at the two, next to a healthy Kyrie Irving in the back court and as a nice compliment to Cooper Flagg. In the long term, Burries is never a guy you’ll have to worry about fit with. He’s never going to be a guy who needs plays run for him, but he will be one of the biggest connecting tissues on your team. While he won’t fill the point guard role for the Mavericks, it’s safe to assume you can plug him into your rotation for the next ten years.

NBA comparison

Two guys who are pretty good comps are those that I mentioned earlier, Derrick White and Quentin Grimes. If you’d like a more aggressive comp, perhaps Bradley Beal could be out there if he does get a bump from his shot diet. All three of those guys are going to be scoring guards with a sprinkle of secondary creation, something I think is well within Burries’ reach.

Daily MLB Expert Picks & Baseball Predictions May 13

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We're mostly focused on totals — specifically Unders — with our MLB picks for Wednesday's slate.

See why our baseball experts expect Rockies/Pirates and Giants/Dodgers to stay low scoring... plus the White Sox to find success behind a strong pitching matchup.

  • UPDATE: Added best bets for SEA/HOU and NYY/BAL.

MLB expert picks for today

PickOdds
Josh Inglis Josh Inglis: COL/PIT o8.5-104
Jon Metler Jon Metler: CWS ML-104
Joe Osborne Joe Osborne: SF/LAD u8.5-133

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Rockies/Pirates Over 8.5

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

Jose Quintana might be one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball right now, with his 3.90 ERA hiding behind the fourth-worst xFIP among MLB starters. He’s also backed by a Colorado Rockies bullpen that owns the fourth-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks. Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller can also get added to the “lucky” list, with a .246 BABIP that is well below the league (and his career) average, and the Pirates' bullpen has been even worse than Colorado's lately. There’s a slight chance of rain, but 13-mph winds blowing out to center field are not going to help two fly-ball-heavy starters.

Jon Metler's expert pick: White Sox moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

The Royals' lineup is built around right-handed bats, led by the red-hot Bobby Witt Jr., but this is a uniquely difficult matchup against Noah Schultz, who isn’t a typical left-handed pitcher. The 6-foot-10 southpaw throws from a low three-quarter arm slot and features a sweeping slider that dives toward the back foot of righty hitters. That combination of angle and movement makes it extremely difficult for righties to pull the ball in the air with authority, limiting a lot of KC's power upside. Outside of Witt, the only other major power threat is Vinnie Pasquantino, who has historically struggled against left-handed pitching. Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox are positioned to create matchup problems of their own, with the ability to stack as many as seven left-handed bats against Seth Lugo throughout the lineup. When you factor in both the pitching matchup and the platoon advantages, I think the White Sox should be trading closer to a 56-cent (-127) favorite in this spot.

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Giants/Dodgers Under 8.5

Price: 57¢ (-133) at Polymarket

Runs should be at a premium tonight, as Shohei Ohtani is putting together the best pitching season of his career, posting a 0.97 ERA across six starts — with five of those games staying Under the total. He’s also been dominant at Dodger Stadium since joining the team, allowing one earned run or fewer in all 10 of his regular-season home starts! Ohtani has owned this San Francisco Giants lineup, holding them to a .525 OPS in 73 combined ABs, but his counterpart Robbie Ray should not be overlooked either. Not to be outdone, Ray looks to be back in ace form with a 2.76 ERA, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have been below average vs. left-handed pitching in recent weeks.


More MLB best bets for today

PickOdds
Seattle ML-125
Read analysis in our Mariners vs. Astros predictions
Yankees/Orioles u8.5+100
Read analysis in our Yankees vs. Orioles predictions

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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In The Lab: The Astros Math Problem

It was one of the more iconic scenes in baseball moviedom. Lou Brown tells his troops that Rachel Phelps (the owner) does not want them to win. In order to win the division they will need to win 32 more games (from that point in the season) and with every win they will pull off a slice to reveal a nearly naked Rachel Phelps. I’m sure we would all just as soon scrub that mental image in our minds when doing the same with Jim Crane and the animus is not nearly on the same level.

Still, we need to look at the basic exercise because once you approach Memorial Day it is time to stop calling the season early. My comrade Patrick Creighton talked about the team only being one month in. With the early start, we are now approaching two months of baseball. So, if we are playing the Rachel Phelps game then how many wins will it take to get to the playoffs?

We need to approach this from two angles. Obviously, we need to look at where the Astros currently are and do the simple math to get them to a certain number of wins. However, how many wins is that? Following the 2020 season, MLB permanently expanded the playoffs to add the third wild card. Below are the lowest number of wins in each league to make it to the postseason that year. We will add another column for the aggregate.

ALNLAgg
2021918387
2022868988
2023898487
2024868787
2025878385
AVG88.285.286.8

So, it is possible when looking at the National League to imagine a team with 83 wins making it to the postseason. You could argue that the American League could be in one of those seasons where the balance of power is skewed to the other league. Even in that universe, the average number of wins in THAT league has been 85. It feels irresponsible to assume anything less than that. Is it possible? Sure. Is it responsible? Not in a million years.

So, let’s assume 85 wins for the time being. The Astros have two separate issues. They are eleven games under .500 and they are 0-6 against the team most likely to wind up on top in the AL West. They have five games remaining this week between the Mariners and Rangers. This math exercise could get out of hand really quick, but let’s look at the basic math. The Astros sit at 16-27. In order to get to 85 wins they would need to finish the season at 69-50. That’s a .580 clip.

That doesn’t seem like much. This team played to that down the stretch in 2024 (in fact playing at a better clip after starting 12-24). They famously played at a better clip in 2005 after starting 15-30. Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future results because this is a different Astros team than even the 2024 outfit. Like the 2025 bunch, they are decimated by injuries. However, we go back to the basic math question. A .580 baseball team over 162 games would win 94 games. This is a basic question. Can this team be a 94 win team as currently constituted even when it is healthy?

I have no doubt that a healthy Hunter Brown would be huge in this rotation. A healthy Josh Hader would be huge at the end of the bullpen. A healthy Jeremy Pena would be key to the lineup. These are all givens but they are also all theoretical. None of them are currently healthy. Brown cannot return until June at the earliest because he is on the 60 day disabled list. Pena could possibly return within a week to ten days, but that would be after this key stretch in the AL West. Hader probably has at least another two to three weeks of rehab left before he can join the team.

Let’s say that in 28 days you have them all back and playing at their previous high levels. That would mean you would need to play at a .580 clip with some or all of them out or the math would change. If you go say 13-13 in those games while some or all of them are out then you need to go 56-37 down the stretch. That’s a .602 percentage or a 98 win pace.

I don’t mean to be a Debbie Downer, but someone needs to say this. The odds of coming back from this start are slim. Yes, you are only a handful of games separated from the top of the league. You also have the 15th best record in the American League. Focusing on the number of games you are back seems simple enough, but that is assuming every other team in the league continues to sputter and spin their wheels. It assumes no one gets hot or figures something out. The best way to approach it is to go based on history and focus on that number. That number is 85.

Obviously, this is a place for cold, hard data. Understanding the math obviously spills us into the next debate and that is whether the Astros realistically can do that and what they would need to do to help their chances. That feels more like commentary to me, so I will leave that for a different time. What do you think? How realistic do you think it is for this Astros team to come back?

Key series with Syracuse on tap this week for Triple-A RailRiders

Three of Yanquiel Fernandez’s eight hits last week in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders’ series with Worcester were home runs. He has hit nine this season, which is tied for fifth in the International League
Mar 24, 2026; Mesa, Arizona, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez against the Chicago Cubs during spring training at Sloan Park. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

We have reached the midway point of the first half of the International League schedule and the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders are in the thick of the race for first place. They entered the week in fifth place with a 20-17 record, four games behind the leading Memphis Redbirds (25-14). The Gwinnett Stripers are second at 24-15, the Louisville Bats third at 23-16 and the Worcester Red Sox fourth at 21-16. Right in back of the RailRiders are the Syracuse Mets and St. Paul Saints, both 20-18.

Unfortunately, the RailRiders do not play Memphis, Gwinnett, nor Louisville this season. However, they were scheduled to begin a series at PNC Field in northeastern Pennsylvania against Syracuse on Tuesday. Then after visiting the Lehigh Valley IronPigs next week, they host Worcester for six games May 26-31, then go to Syracuse for seven games June 2-7.

So in the next four weeks, the RailRiders have a chance to take care of business on their own and hope that the top three teams hit the skids. This week is the second meeting of the season between the RailRiders and Syracuse. The Mets won four of five when the teams played April 14-19 in New York.

Some of baseball’s top prospects will be featured in the series. Syracuse has the Mets’ No. 1 prospect and No. 36 overall according to MLB Pipeline in righty Jonah Tong, who debuted last year for the Amazins and is 1-2 with a 4.46 ERA, along with a league-leading 52 strikeouts in 36.1 innings. Fellow right-hander Jack Wenninger is the Mets’ No. 5 prospect with a 3-1 record, 1.27 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. Wenninger defeated the RailRiders, 5-3, on April 17th. He allowed one run on three hits in 5.1 innings with two walks and five strikeouts. The lone run he allowed was a home run to the since-promoted Spencer Jones.

First baseman/outfielder Ryan Clifford—acquired in the 2023 Justin Verlander trade—is the Mets’ No. 3 prospect. He is batting .252 with seven home runs and 21 RBIs.

Of course, the RailRiders have the New York Yankees’ top three prospects in infielder George Lombard Jr. and righthander pitchers Carlos Lagrange and Elmer Rodríguez. Lombard (No. 22 MLB Pipeline) is batting just .176 (6 for 34) with 6 singles in 10 games since being promoted to Triple-A, but he does have 12 walks. Lagrange (No. 62 MLB Pipeline) is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA in seven starts with 38 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. Rodríguez (No. 65 MLB Pipeline) is 1-2 with a 1.38 ERA in five starts with 26 strikeouts in as many innings.


Last week in Worcester, the RailRiders won two of five games from the WooSox, including the series final, 3-2, on a home run by Ali Sánchez in the top of the second inning and a two-run home run by Yanquiel Fernández in the top of the sixth. Zach Messinger worked out of a bases-loaded jam in the bottom of the ninth by getting a game-ending 4-6-3 double play.

The win was No. 500 in the managerial career of Shelley Duncan — 269 of which have come with the RailRiders. Duncan also has 87 wins from his time in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ organization, with the Hillsboro Hops (2015-16) in the High-A Northwest League; 69 with the Visalia Rawhide (2017) in the Low-A California League; and 75 with the Jackson Generals (2018) in the Double-A Southern League. His overall record is 500-411.

Other highlights from the series with Worcester:

Fernández batted .333 (8-for-24) in five games with two doubles, three home runs and seven RBIs. Duke Ellis and Payton Henry both batted .462 (6-for-13) in four games. Ellis, getting a chance to play in the outfield with Jones called up to the Yankees, had two doubles, one home run, three RBIs, and three stolen bases. Henry had a double and three RBIs.

Messinger and Dylan Coleman each had one save. In two appearances, Messinger worked 3.1 scoreless innings, allowing one hit, two walks and three strikeouts. He has not given up a run in his last four outings covering 8.2 innings. Coleman did not give up a run or a hit in 2.2 innings with no walks and three strikeouts.

As a team, the RailRiders have nine saves with eight pitchers recording at least one. Kervin Castro—who spent most of the weekend with the Yankees before returning to Scranton upon Carlos Rodón’s activation—leads with two saves. Harrison Cohen and erstwhile Astros reliever Rafael Montero also did not give up a run in two appearances against Worcester.

Mets Morning News: A(.J.)-Okay

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MAY 12: A.J. Ewing #9 of the New York Mets steals second base in the sixth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Citi Field on May 12, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Evan Bernstein/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Meet the Mets

The Mets beat the Tigers in a 10-2 blowout. A.J. Ewing impressed in his debut, drawing three walks, driving in two runs, stealing a base, and hitting a triple for his first major league hit.

Choose your recap: Amazin’ Avenue, MLB.com, Newsday, New York Daily News, New York Post

Carson Benge’s outfield dynamism has turned heads and is one of the few bright spots in the slog of the 2026 season so far.

With A.J. Ewing’s call-up, the Mets designated outfielder Andy Ibáñez for assignment.

The Mets aren’t in the bottom of at least one hyper-specific statistic: pitches thrown outside the zone and called strikes without a challenge.

A.J. Minter threw a bullpen session yesterday and should be heading back to a rehab assignment this weekend, hopefully putting his return in the somewhat near future.

On the other hand, Luis Robert Jr. is still experiencing symptoms and doesn’t look to be coming back anytime soon, potentially giving A.J. Ewing a lot of runway.

Francisco Alvarez was removed from last night’s game due to a right knee injury and will undergo an MRI today.

MLB Pipeline put out a list of every team’s current hottest pitching prospect, and the Mets’ selection is (unsurprisingly) the nearly-untouchable Jack Wenninger.

Around the National League East

Much of the Braves’ offense—and success—is coming courtesy of the heavy-hitting duo of Matt Olson and Drake Baldwin.

The Nationals routed the Reds in a 10-4 victory, with Daylen Lile driving in four of the Nationals runs on two home runs.

The Phillies held on to beat the Red Sox 2-1, with Zack Wheeler going 7.1 innings, allowing one run on six hits and striking out four.

The Marlins were shut out by the Twins 3-0. Eury Pérez gave up all three runs in six innings, allowing six hits and three walks while striking out eight.

The Braves bested the Cubs 5-2 in a heavyweight matchup. The hero of the game for the Braves was Mike Yastrzemski, who drove in three runs on two hits including a two-run home run.

Around Major League Baseball

So many of this year’s best teams have issues with the back end of their bullpen, and Buster Olney explained why.

The Dodgers have acquired outfielder Alek Thomas from the Diamondbacks in exchange for a minor league outfielder.

MLB and the Player’s Association met for the first time yesterday to begin negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement, with the current one set to expire on December 1.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

Steve Sypa returned with another group of Mets Minor League Players of the Week.

Steve Sypa also introduced us to the newly called up top prospect A.J. Ewing.

This Date in Mets History

Bobby Valentine turns 76 years old today.

AHL Playoff Update: Bill Zonnon’s electric debut

Yesterday started with Kyle Dubas praising Bill Zonnon as the 2025 first round draft pick was about to turn pro full time. To say Penguin management is impressed with Zonnon’s habits would be an understatement after the player showed he was going above and beyond to watch and learn the system before even joining the team.

Zonnon put that preparation to good use when he scored the go-ahead goal that stood as the game winner in Wilkes-Barre’s 2-0 Game 1 victory over Springfield.

Needless to say the Atlantic Division Finals were not too big of a stage for the 19-year old to make his AHL debut. The Penguins took a 1-0 lead in their best-of-five series against Springfield.

Here was the Pens’ lineup for the night.

Sergei Murashov only needed to stop 24 shots, the quantity not sounding like much but it doesn’t tell the whole tale of how good the goaltending was and needed to be. Murashov was deservedly named the number one star of the game and was the best player on the ice all night long, especially during a critical juncture in the second period when he had to be extremely sharp to keep the puck out of the net. What he lacked in total saves that needed to be made was more than made up for by the quality of stops required.

Harrison Brunicke wasn’t too far behind Murashov as far as top-performing players on the night. It has certainly been an unconventional and path-less-traveled type of season for Brunicke. Rocky at times even, in a year that spanned playing games across different leagues, levels and tournaments fromthe NHL. AHL, WHL to the WJC. Based on his play in the AHL playoffs, Brunicke has come out of the storm just fine. His defensive play looks much more confident and steady. His reads and stopping ability have increased, he uses his stick effectively. Overall he just looks like a stronger player whether it’s been boxing guys out in front of the net, tossing them aside from the goalies after whistles or using his body to shield pucks as he carries them. Maybe it was going back to junior and getting the chance to play huge minutes and grow. Maybe a light just went of and he would have been fine by now no matter what happened. No matter how the particulars, Brunicke looks like a different and better version of himself compared to the one who had an AHL conditioning stint early in the regular season.

Tanner Howe scored a third period insurance goal to boost the lead to 2-0.

In the end, Game 1 will be remembered as the Zonnon debut. Springfield’s goalie, Georgi Romanov has arguably been the early player of the playoffs so far in the AHL. Romanov’s 5-1 record and .954 save% in the first two rounds of the playoffs were a leading reason why the Thunderbirds pulled off upsets over Charlotte and Providence. Romanov had the Pens blanked too until Zonnon made it happen with his goal.

The Pittsburgh organization has to continue to be pleased with how this playoff run is going. Murashov has been stellar, Brunicke is showing out and seemingly growing by the game and now their latest player to join the fray in Zonnon has made an immediate impact to show why they were so excited to get him into their organization. Vibes are strong, all signs pointing in the right direction as Wilkes heads into Game 2 tomorrow night.