To state the obvious: the mood in the Phillies fandom has not been overly sanguine in the past few days. The Phillies missed a chance to get better with Bo Bichette, while their rivals in Queens did not. There are still plenty of reasons to believe in the Phillies as a major contender for next year, despite that. The power is still there in the lineup. The rotation has healthy stars in Christopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo, with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola as major weapons should they recover and return to form, respectively. The bullpen may be better than last year.
But the division won’t be easy. The Mets have major questions, especially in the rotation, but Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Bo Bichette make for a powerful combo. The Braves haven’t quite looked like themselves for the past season or two, but they’re still a major threat. The Nationals and Marlins still seem to be a few seasons away, but they have good young talent. Does all this leave the Phillies as the favorites to win the division? Or does a disappointing offseason and an extra year of age on the lineup move someone else into the drivers seat?
Today’s question is: Do you think the Phillies are still favorites to win the National League East?
[MLB] From World Series winner to sausage meister: A visit to Byung-hyun Kim’s German restaurant – “When I was playing in the States, any time families and friends would come, I would take them out to a restaurant that I recommended. I saw the joy that people felt from having good food,” Kim said. “That’s where it all started.” He began with three sushi restaurants in San Diego – today there is only one, Umi Sushi – before he followed his teenage dream and opened a handful of burger and hot dog joints, with two of the locations inside KBO stadiums at the Gocheok Sky Dome and Changwon NC Park. “The inspiration was Gonzo’s Grill in Arizona at Chase Field,” Kim said. “I saw that and I really wanted to replicate it and have a burger joint at a baseball stadium.”
[AZ Big Media] Merrill Kelly returns to the Diamondbacks for his family – His family’s thrilled to be back in the Valley. Korean cuisine has become an occasional stop, indulged in “probably a little more than we should,” Kelly joked. “We don’t venture out much unless we have to,” he said at first. “I’m a big golfer. If I do go somewhere, at least on my own, it’s usually the golf course. “We found a couple spots that we really like. There’s a place in Mesa, Jin BBQ, [near Mekong Plaza] that we like. There’s an H Mart, which is a big Korean grocery store. It’s good to be back.”
[Dbacks.com] Marte plan unchanged in face of Bregman, Suárez signings – If you’re holding your breath on them bringing in a bona fide closer at this point, well … don’t. “Would I like to have somebody that has a clear pedigree of pitching in the eighth and ninth inning?” Hazen said. “That’s an easier answer. I’m not sure what we’ll have access to in that way. I think if we continue to build out talent in the bullpen, this bullpen is going to be good in time as we move through the season. We’re going to obviously be getting guys back as we move through the season, so I think the talent is naturally going to improve as we move through the year.”
[New Baseball Media] 2025 MLB Farm Review: Arizona Diamondbacks – There is a new #1 atop the Diamondbacks’ farm system. It’s close between Waldschmidt and Caldwell, two different outfielders. Both are fantastic at getting on base and swiping bases, Caldwell more than the former. However, Waldschmidt is a formidable power hitter, moreso than Caldwell. After that, we’ll go with Cunningham at #3. Kohl Drake, acquired last summer as part of the Merrill Kelly, was a strong swing-and-miss pitcher in the Rangers’ organization. has a diverse & modern pitch arsenal, regularly using both a four-seamer and two-seamer.
And, elsewhere…
[Just Baseball] Top 20 MLB Free Agents With Contract and Team Predictions – Zac Gallen – Two-year, $54 million deal, opt-out after 2026, Orioles, we now have Gallen signing with a team that has been very aggressive this offseason. My initial contract prediction has aged well, as the market has stalled on Gallen and he could be forced to take a two-year deal with an opt-out. Paul Goldschmidt – One-year, $5 million, D-backs. Goldschmidt is looking like a great fit in Arizona. With the left-handed hitting Pavin Smith set to start at first base, Goldy could form a platoon there, or could even push Smith to DH some if they wanted him to play every day. If this is the last season of Goldschmidt’s career, there would not be a better place for him.
[MLB Trade Rumors] Elly De La Cruz Declined Franchise-Record Offer From Reds – While details were sparse at the time, president of baseball operations Nick Krall revealed today the team made an official offer that would have topped their 10-year, $225MM franchise-record deal with Joey Votto. “We made Elly an offer that would’ve made him the highest-paid Red ever,” Krall said (link via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). “That’s not where he is and you respect that. It’s their career. You keep going and you keep working on what you can do today.” De La Cruz opted not to go into specifics, telling fans at Redsfest only that he leaves contractual matters to his agent, Scott Boras.
[NY Post] Jazz Chisholm Jr. joining Great Britain for 2026 World Baseball Classic – Jazz Chisholm Jr. has committed to suit up for Great Britain, as WBC reporter Shawn Spradling reported Friday, giving the Yankees [and former D-back!] second baseman a chance to play on the big stage this spring. Great Britain delegation head Gary Anderson and manager Brady Marcelino said last month at the Winter Meetings that there was strong interest in having Chisholm — who is entering his walk year — on the team; it was just a matter of working through eligibility and insurance, which has evidently been approved. The Bahamas native played for Great Britain in the WBC qualifiers as an 18-year-old in 2016.
The Rip (2026)
Dir: Joe Carnahan Star: Matt Damon, Ben Affleck, Stephen Yuen, Scott Adkins
a.k.a. Cops Yelling: The Movie. Or perhaps it just seems that way, because nobody here seems to use their inside voice. However, it’s still decently entertaining, in a “Saturday night and I just want something mindless” way… It’s nice to see Damon and Affleck working together again: they’re the Peter Cushing and Christopher Lee of contemporary urban thrillers. Carnahan, too, has certainly come a long way since Blood Guts Bullets & Octane. Probably inevitably, the Netflix sausage machine has knocked off the rough edges of personality, in favor of smooth, slick and ultimately forgettable product. Though, as ever, the “based on real events” tag is more marketing than reality.
There are many reasons for the Orioles failure in 2025. Injuries piled up. The rotation was too thin. And a little bad luck certainly contributed. But perhaps the most disappointing part of the entire squad was the offense, a largely homegrown unit that was supposed to be the backbone of the team’s championship window. Instead, it collapsed.
Orioles President of Baseball Operations Mike Elias did quite a bit of work to improve the lineup this offseason. Most notably, he signed first baseman Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract with the expectation that he will hit 35+home runs in the middle of the order for years to come. Prior to that, he traded for Taylor Ward, a pending free agent that has hit 61 home runs over the last two seasons.
In short order, Elias injected power back into an Orioles lineup that sorely needed it. They had dropped from third in MLB in slugging (.435) in 2024 down to 19th (.394) in 2025. Some of that was due to the loss of Anthony Santander to free agency, and the rest was caused by underperformance from just about everyone else that stuck around. Bringing in external talent will help to a point, but the ceiling of this team will depend on what the players that were already in-house can do to bounce back. Two players, in particular, stand out.
Hip hip Holliday
The rare Oriole that actually improved in 2025 was Jackson Holliday. The former top prospect had a rough go in his rookie season of 2024, getting an early-season call-up, only to struggle mightily, go back to Triple-A Norfolk, and then return with some inconsistent performances through season’s end. He ended that year with a paltry .189/.255/.311 slash line.
In 2025, the Orioles cleared the deck for Holliday so that he could be their clear everyday second baseman. The results were…better. Over 149 games, he hit .242/.314/.375 with 17 home runs and a 95 OPS+. All in, that is a slightly below league-average hitter, but that OPS+ was a 32-point improvement from his rookie campaign. There was plenty to be encouraged by. He showed solid control of the strike zone, never looked out of his depth the way he often did in ‘24, and stayed at the big league level all season long.
There is no indication that the Orioles are wavering on Holliday’s potential. With spring training around the corner, he remains the only everyday option at second base on the roster. And while the team has continued to pursue high-end pitching through the winter, Holliday’s name has not been mentioned in any public trade rumors. He is poised to play a ton of baseball in Baltimore once again in 2026.
It has become commonplace for this era of Orioles prospects to scuffle right at the start of their big league careers, only to figure things out a bit more in years two and three. Holliday is in a good position to have the same experience.
Westburg, straight ahead
Elsewhere on the infield is a player that has had no such issue with big league pitching. In fact, he’s already made an all-star team and owns a career 116 OPS+. He’s not bad with the leather either. A Gold Glove isn’t out of the question before his career ends. That is, if he could only stay healthy.
Jordan Westburg missed time on three different occasions in 2025. He was out from late April through early June with a hamstring strain, lost a few games in June and July with a finger injury, and then sprained his ankle in mid-August, keeping him on the shelf until mid-September. All of those injuries limited him to just 85 total games.
Despite that, Westburg tied for the team lead in home runs (17) hit last year, alongside Holliday and Gunnar Henderson, who each played in 149 or more games. It doesn’t feel like a coincidence that the team’s worst month of the year (May), was the one that Westburg missed completely.
It’s unlikely that Westburg was ever truly healthy in 2025. Even still, he was productive, posting a solid .265/.313/.457 slash line with a 114 OPS+, and the aforementioned 17 home runs. Defensively, he graded out well, accumulating 3 outs above average, according to Baseball Savant.
On top of that, he maintained his 29 feet per second sprint speed (89th percentile in MLB), which is well above the league average (27 ft/sec), and among the very best at third base. In fact, no other third baseman had a faster time from home plate to first base (4.23 seconds) than Westburg, which is extremely impressive for a right-handed hitter.
All of the tools are there for Westburg to be the type of player that makes all-star teams on a yearly basis and might even get down-ballot MVP consideration some seasons. But he has to stay on the field for any of that to happen.
Table setters
Holliday and Westburg are not the only two hitters on the Orioles roster that need to improve going into 2026 if the team’s hopes of returning to the postseason are going to come true. But they are the two on the roster for which that jump in performance feels the most attainable.
Holliday has already shown he can develop at the major league level. Year two was a humble one in terms of production, but the growth was clear. Now he has a base from which he can build. FanGraphs calculated that he was worth 1.2 WAR in 2024. Many of their projection systems believe he could double that value in 2026, ranging from 2.3 to 3.1 WAR. A performance like that would have him in the all-star conversation, and maybe even some position-specific awards come October. An even bigger jump than that is also possible. After all, he was the absolute top prospect in baseball not so long ago. But let’s see pump the brakes a bit.
Westburg should have no doubt about his ability to be one of the best third basemen in the game. He has already done it, albeit for brief moments. Now it’s about staying off the IL, which can be a skill of sorts that players develop as they get more experience in the game. You can’t eliminate injury risk, but you may be able to mitigate it with adjustments to playing style. Whatever can be done, should be done. The Orioles are a much better team with Westburg in the lineup. If he plays in 130+ games, he is nearly a lock to be a 3.5+ WAR player, and maybe even better.
Lineups obviously aren’t set in stone, but right now the Roster Resource tool at FanGraphs projects the Orioles everyday offense to include Holliday as the leadoff man, a role he handled many times in 2025, and Westburg in the second spot. Right behind them is Henderson at three, with Alonso in the clean-up role. Maybe you like Westburg better in the leadoff spot with Holliday farther down the order, but at the very least that projection illustrates the pair’s expected importance to the team.
In theory, that sounds like a fearsome quartet to face right out of the gate. But it gets far less scary if Holliday can’t continue to grow and Westburg is on the IL more than the infield. The outcome of the 2026 Orioles is not entirely on the duo’s shoulders, but they will need to bare quite a bit of weight.
You can never deny Adam Silver’s ambition to try new things, even when his effort proves futile.
This year, he’s outdone himself by introducing yet another wrinkle to the All-Star game, as the 24 players will now be split into three teams: two filled with Americans and the other comprised of international names. Befuddlingly, the teams are now positionless, and yet, the players selected must still include 12 from each conference, even though the competition is based on nationalities.
With the West having a significant talent advantage as usual, there are many more snubs here when compared to the East. Ultimately, I went with six international players from the West and two from the East, given that there’s no requirement to have an equal number of non-Americans selected from each.
Sorry, you’re still confused? So is everyone else, but we persevere due to the love of the game.
Here are my Western Conference All-Star selections, with the East coming tomorrow.
Starters
Shai Gilgeous-Alexandar: The reigning MVP, Shai has somehow levelled up again this year. He’s averaging 31.6 points on the highest true shooting percentage of his career (66.5) and could lead OKC to a 70-win season. Even with arguably the deepest supporting cast in the league, Shai is the main reason why the Thunder are title favorites: OKC’s offense drops from a 123.5 rating (94th percentile) to a measly 111.7 (22nd) when he sits. Shai is the rightful MVP front-runner and will go down as an all-time great.
Luka Doncic: Luka is putting up video game numbers as usual, averaging 33.6/7.7/8.7 and leading the Lakers to a surprising 24-15 record. Even so, something seems off with him and the team: maybe it’s LA’s negative net rating, or the fact that Luka’s whining more than ever and is leading the league in free throws per game (11.7) by a wide margin (Deni is second at “just” 9.9). Still, the Slovenian Wunderkind remains one of the league’s four best players and should be in line for another First Team All-NBA appearance.
Stephen Curry: Even at 37, Steph remains arguably the game’s greatest spectacle. His 28.1 points per game is the fourth highest of his career, and the Warriors still need his brilliance more than ever. Golden State goes from having an elite 120.5 offensive rating (85th percentile) to just 111.1 (20th) when he sits, and Wardell is once again on track to lead the league in both threes made (4.6) and attempts (11.8).
Victor Wembanyama: The numbers might not seem too different compared to last year, but make no mistake: Wemby has levelled up and is now firmly entrenched as the fifth-best player in the league. Prioritizing inside scoring with his added physicality has made the Alien unstoppable, even though there are still times when he should impose more of his will. Only health can prevent Wemby from winning DPOY and being named to First Team All-NBA, and he’s already good enough to be the best player on a championship team.
Nikola Jokic: Jokic is unquestionably the best player on the planet, and in my eyes, he’s in a tier of his own. Before his injury, the three-time MVP was having his best season ever, and maybe the best of all time — something we seem to repeat every year. Don’t believe me? Jokic was scoring 29.6 points per game while leading the league in rebounds (12.2), assists (11.0), AND true shooting percentage (71.3%). It honestly does not make sense how someone can be this good at basketball, and I’ve got no doubt that we’re watching a top 10 player ever at the peak of his powers.
Reserves
Anthony Edwards: For the first time in his career, Ant is having an efficient season from every area on the court. The 24-year-old is shooting 56.3% from two while maintaining elite volume from deep as well (40.9% on 8.2 attempts a game). The addition of a post-game has turned Ant into a high-level scorer from all three levels, and his 72% finishing around the rim is also among the league’s best (89th percentile). The Wolves are flying under the radar once again, and another run to the Conference Finals isn’t out of the question.
Jamal Murray: Contrary to popular discourse, Murray has never actually deserved an All-Star appearance — until now. The Blue Arrow is having his best regular season by far: his 25.8 scoring average is four points more than his previous career high, and he’s doing it on a career-best 61.6% true shooting too. More importantly, he’s led the Nuggets to a 7-3 record without Jokic, which is somehow a higher win percentage than the one they have with the Joker playing. What in MJ’s name is going on??
Kevin Durant: It’s 2026, and KD is still putting up 26.3 a night on 51.6/40.4/88.7 shooting. The promise of a lighter load in Houston hasn’t materialized, as the Slim Reaper’s minutes (36.5) and field goal attempts (18.0) are still in line with his career norms. Simply put, KD remains one of the league’s most efficient bucket-getters while being the go-to option on a good team, and he’s unquestionably still one of the best players on the planet.
Chet Holmgren: The second-best player on a historically dominant team, Chet is averaging 17.9 points on a ridiculous 66.6% true shooting. His self-creation is still lacking, but there’s no question that Chet has become one of the most efficient play finishers in the league, and that doesn’t even account for his DPOY-level defense. OKC also has a +7.1 net rating with Chet playing without Shai, so he’s not just riding the coattails of the MVP frontrunner, either.
Deni Avdija: Even after last year’s jump, no one expected Deni to average 26.1/7.1/6.9 this season. He’s become a legitimate top 25 player in the league and is the only reason why Portland is in the play-in race. The Blazers are a net-neutral team with a good offense (118.1 rating, 71st percentile) when Deni plays, and they become a bottom-feeder when he sits (-11.1 net rating, 102.6 offensive rating).
Kawhi Leonard: Tree Board Man is quietly having one of the best seasons in the league: Kawhi is averaging 28.2/6.3/3.5 on 49.7/39.9/94.1 shooting. Yes, you read that right. He’s scoring almost 30 points a game while shooting basically 50/40/90, and the Clippers are 12-2 in their last 14 games after a disastrous start. Kawhi is playing at a borderline top-5 level again, and this basketball robot is showing no signs of rust at age 34.
Final spot & honorable mentions
Final spot: Devin Booker
Honorable mentions: Alperen Sengun, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert
I went back and forth between Booker, Sengun, Randle, and Gobert for the last spot, but ultimately went with the former. And yes, you read that right: I name-dropped the Stifle Tower in an All-Star column in the big 2026. As ridiculous as that sounds, Gobert should be the frontrunner for DPOY if Wemby doesn’t hit the 65-game requirement. He’s been the second most important Timberwolf this year, as Minnesota is somehow a +7.2 in the minutes Gobert plays without both Ant and Randle, sheerly due to an absurd 94.2 DRTG. More importantly, the Wolves are barely positive in the minutes when Ant and/or Randle play without Gobert, as their defense drops to near league-worst levels. Minnesota only becomes elite on both ends whenever the Frenchman shares the court with one or both of those two scorers.
Randle, meanwhile, is having his most efficient scoring season (60.6% TS) since becoming a go-to option, and the Wolves are sporting an all-time 125.3 offensive rating when he plays without Ant. It’s a similar story with Sengun, whose numbers are up from his All-Star campaign a year ago and have helped the Rockets thrive even in the non-KD minutes: Houston still has a +5.3 net rating while being good on both sides of the ball in the Sengun-only lineups.
However, I ultimately decided to go with Booker because he’s the #1 option on a surprising 24-17 Phoenix team with no other stars (sorry, Dillon Brooks). Yes, Booker’s shooting splits are some of the worst of his career (45.2% field goal, 30.1% from 3), but he’s still hovering around league average in efficiency, and the Suns are a +5.4 with him and -1.5 without him.
All three of the other names have compelling arguments for this last spot, but I’m going with the lone star who’s leading the team that’s overachieved the most this season.
The Milwaukee Bucks will try to forget one of the worst two-game stretches (based on point differential) and end a three-game losing streak against the Atlanta Hawks on the road for Martin Luther King Jr. Day. This is the first time these two Eastern Conference foes have met this season, though the Hawks took the season series 3-2 last year. The last time they played was on March 30, 2025, when the Hawks blew out the Bucks 145-124 in Milwaukee.
Where We’re At
It’s been a rough go for the Bucks over the last several games, after they won four of their previous five games before last Sunday against the Nuggets. That hasn’t happened, as after losing to Denver by four without Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, they lost by 33 at home to the Timberwolves without Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert. Then they lost to the Spurs on Thursday by 18, but the final score doesn’t reflect how bad the game was for the Bucks, who trailed by 39 at one point and were blown out 40-16 in the third quarter. This game is crucial to re-enter the play-in race, as the Hawks are currently 10th with a 1.5-game lead over the 11th-seeded Bucks.
The Hawks are in a similar boat to the Bucks, post-Trae Young trade. They have a record of 2-3 in five games since the trade, but have lost their last three in blowout fashion. First losing by 25 to the Lakers on Tuesday, then to the Trail Blazers by 16 on Thursday, and in their return to Atlanta on Saturday, by 26 to the Celtics. C.J. McCollum has played four of five since Atlanta acquired him, averaging 17 points per game and shooting 39.4% from the floor and 13% from three-point range, for an effective field goal percentage of 41.7%.
Injury Report
There is only one Bucks player on the injury report, with Taurean Prince (neck) still out indefinitely.
The Hawks will be without Kristaps Porzingis again, as he deals with some left Achilles tendinitis, plus N’Faly Dante (torn ACL). The reigning Most Improved Player of the Year, Dyson Daniels, is questionable with a right ankle sprain. Zaccharie Risacher was a later addition to the injury report, and he’ll miss out on this one with a bone contusion in his left knee.
Player To Watch
This will be the fourth time this season the Bucks have played against McCollum. With the Wizards before the aforementioned Young deal, he hasn’t been that good during his time in the ATL, but he’s been a bit of a thorn in the Bucks’ side. In their last meeting, McCollum scored four points in the final 30 seconds to give the Wizards a one-point win at Fiserv Forum on New Year’s Eve. Maybe against a team he’s had success against, McCollum will come out of his funk and give the Bucks some trouble again.
Back when I was updating IWAG in earnest, one of the flags or parameters that I put in was essentially a confidence rating — not just of the point estimate, but the distribution. Not surprisingly, my work and research indicated that it is a lot easier to forecast the upcoming season of a player with at least a handful of MLB seasons under their belts. Younger players, or more accurately, less experienced players, posed a relative challenge. Trying to forecast a to-debut rookie was a nightmare, but second-year players weren’t much better. (I remember a study a while ago by either Tom Tango or Mitchel Lichtman, or maybe both of them, that indicated that assuming league average for a given to-debut rookie ended up less wrong than trying to use their minor league stats and other parameters to actually forecast their performance.)
Unfortunately for me, and for you, if you care about forecasting, Drake Baldwin is a second-year player. His rookie year was great, one of the few things that actually worked in the Braves’ favor in 2025, and now there’s a question of whether he’ll maintain that hardware-and-Prospect Promotion Incentive-winning performance, improve upon it, or backslide for whatever reason.
Career-to-date, status, and recent performance
Baldwin was drafted in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft, spent the bulk of his first full professional season in High-A, and moved up to Triple-A on a full-time basis midway through 2024, after fewer than 300 PAs in Double-A. The Braves have, historically, promoted guys they expected to be key performers without needing them to pay their dues or pad their stats in Triple-A, but Baldwin wasn’t earmarked for a big league role until Sean Murphy got hurt in Spring Training 2025. Given that Baldwin spent much of 2024 destroying Triple-A pitching, their hand was basically forced — which, as you can tell from how 2025 played out, is not always a bad thing.
Baldwin finished 2025 with 3.1 fWAR in 446 PAs, a pretty sexy WAR-per-600-PAs rate of about 4.2. Catchers can achieve high WAR/600 rates by virtue of the positional adjustment for donning the tools of ignorance (about 1.3 WAR/600 alone) and playing decent defense, but Baldwin DHed a fair bit and was below-average defensively, such that his offense was about three times as valuable as his defense in terms of performance above average.
That offense was revelatory, in part because Baldwin, with seemingly little effort, resembled a paragon of what the 2025 Braves were hoping to sculpt of their hitters: he walked at an average rate, struck out way less than average, and made a ton of contact while maintaining above-average oomph on said contact. While many Braves hitters had long swings that they whipped through the zone, basically leveraging delta-vee to their benefit when connecting, Baldwin kept the bat speed aspect but relied on a shorter swing that seemed to have few ill effects on his power production while allowing him to mitigate swing-and-miss. He obliterated four-seamers (.419 xwOBA) and had no issues with sliders (.365) — in a somewhat-crazy development, he managed a .370 xwOBA against sliders when lacking the platoon advantage. His issue was changeups, but which is not surprising given that he’s a lefty-batting rookie.
He was also pretty consistent, or at least, consistently valuable. His worst monthly xwOBA was .321, when he wore down a bit in September. He had one really great month, with a near-.400 xwOBA in May, but had three others where he was solidly at .350 or above. Defensively, it was more of a mixed bag: he has great mechanics in terms of positioning himself to block and throw, but lacked zip on his throws. In terms of framing, he really struggled to be convincing when he had to reach for the ball — either above the zone or, more critically, across his body. It’s the sort of thing that can probably be fixed mechanically, though I’m not exactly sure whether the Braves are equipped to do that well given the whole William Contreras thing.
Forecasting
So, how do you take this and shove it into 2026? It’s tempting to just say the status quo will prevail — it gives Baldwin the credit for his offensive performance, prevents assuming any uptick defensively, and precludes any headache that one could get from trying to figure out how much Baldwin will or not will be DHing by simply setting it equal to the same rate of catcher-versus-DH breakdown in 2025. Adjustments after using 2025 as a starting point might be easy to eyeball… or not.
For a projection system, well, I think things go back to my first paragraph here: how much do you regress to the mean given how good Baldwin was in 2025? Something is probably warranted, and there’s a big issue that is hard to implement effectively regarding the huge swing in positional adjustment between catcher and DH, which are the two positions that Baldwin will likely play heavily in 2026. IWAG’s best attempt is below, and it’s not really that heartening…
As you can see, IWAG applied some regression to the mean offensively. But, a similarly chunky hit came from something akin to a 2-to-1 split between catcher and DH — which is really different from 2025. Last year, Baldwin only had 52 PAs as a DH, less than one-in-eight if you ignore his pinch-hitting appearances. This year, unless Sean Murphy ends up being a non-entity, 2ish-to-1ish is punishing for Baldwin on a value basis, but it’s hard to assume he’ll hit 500-plus PAs without a breakdown like that.
As far as distributions go, this is a fun one, which is another way of saying, “yeah, IWAG has no idea.” There just isn’t too much to go off of that would cabin the range, and the catcher-versus-DH thing causes a lot of issues that requires pontificating on Sean Murphy’s health and whether any other player gets ensconced at DH, neither of which IWAG is actually capable of doing in a projection for Drake Baldwin.
Your turn
Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:
Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Drake Baldwin produce in 2026?
How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”
Guys, seriously, stop picking numbers that aren’t a whole WAR, though if you do, it’s not like you’ll remember my forced adjustment to it when I score these next autumn anyway.
Wilbur Wood, a man who once threw 376 innings in a season and will undoubtably be the last man in the history of baseball to both win and lose 20 games in the same season, died at 84.
Even though the calendar says 2026, Sunday unfortunately felt a lot like 2025 for the Braves. Ha-Seong Kim, whom the Braves resigned this offseason, will now miss a good portion of the 2026 season with a torn finger tendon. It was a freak injury that occurred when Kim slipped on a piece of ice in his native Korea.
As a result, it will be interesting to see how the Braves respond to the injury in terms of adding infield depth to the roster. With Mauricio Dubon likely playing short as the starter, the Braves could look at different options to add SS depth to the organization.
It appears that the next big domino to fall on the FA market is Cody Bellinger. The Yankees currently have a modified offer out to Bellinger, including opt-outs. However, it has been reported in recent days they feel he could sign elsewhere.
SGA is averaging 30.5 points per night in January, and he’s cashed the Over in points in three of his previous five games. Last time out, Gilgeous-Alexander tallied 39 points in a rare loss to the Heat.
Last Tuesday, he also poured in 34 in a victory over the Spurs. SGA is averaging 31.7 PPG on the road, and he averaged 35.5 across two meetings with the Cleveland Cavaliers last season. Plus, Darius Garland is out, weakening Cleveland’s backcourt defense.
Lock this pick in with confidence as the best version of SGA shows up today.
Thunder vs Cavaliers same-game parlay
With Garland sidelined, playmaking duties fall on Donovan Mitchell's shoulders. Yes, he’s still expected to score at a high level, but the Cavs will also be relying on him to facilitate more than usual.
Although Spida dropped just 13 points on Friday against the 76ers, he also finished with 12 assists. Mitchell is averaging just 5.7 dimes per night, but he’s hit the Over in four of his last five outings.
Chet Holmgren is a beast on the boards, especially lately. Overall, he’s averaging 8.5 rebounds, and he’s cashed the Over four of his last five, finishing with at least 10 boards in each of those games.
Thunder vs Cavaliers SGP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 points
Donovan Mitchell Over 6.5 assists
Chet Homgren Over 9.5 rebounds
Our "from downtown" SGP: Joe Cool Gets Hot From Deep
Isaiah Joe has drained Over 1.5 triples in four consecutive appearances.
Thunder vs Cavaliers SGP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 points
Donovan Mitchell Over 6.5 assists
Chet Homgren Over 9.5 rebounds
Isaiah Joe Over 1.5 threes
Thunder vs Cavaliers odds
Spread: Thunder -6 (-110) | Cavaliers +6 (-110)
Moneyline: Thunder -245 | Cavaliers +200
Over/Under: Over 234.5 (-110) | Under 234.5 (-110)
Thunder vs Cavaliers betting trend to know
The Oklahoma City Thunder have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 53% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Cavaliers.
How to watch Thunder vs Cavaliers
Location
Rocket Arena, Cleveland, OH
Date
Monday, January 19, 2026
Tip-off
2:30 p.m. ET
TV
NBC/Peacock
Thunder vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here
Upgrading from a league-average bat in the third OF spot to one of the league’s best hitters would be a big gain in any context, but his impact on the Dodgers is boosted further by their already loaded lineup. Tucker provides the pop to drive in LA’s elite OBP guys, while his own OBP presence creates more RBI potential for the still fantastic bottom of the Dodgers’ order.
At Big West Dugout, a writer under the pseudonym Eephus Tosser looked at a few recent transactions — Tucker to the Dodgers, Gavin Lux traded by the Reds included — through an economist’s lens. He alluded to how the Dodgers invested early in building a player development system, which coupled with their vast resources is helping them thrive now.
“They didn’t draft Tucker. They didn’t tank for him. They didn’t reorganize their system to accommodate him. They simply absorbed him—financially and structurally—without changing how they operate,” he wrote. “That’s abundance after discipline. Resource importation without institutional erosion.”
Hopefully three days of rest will have done the Sixers some good. They’re coming off a tough two-game mini series against the Cavaliers, losing two straight capped off by Friday’s narrow 117-115 defeat as they squandered a 10-point lead in the fourth. Cleveland has now passed Philly in the Eastern Conference standings, overtaking them into sixth place.
The Sixers had won six of their previous eight before facing the Cavs, though, and should have a good chance to get back to those winnings ways against Monday’s opponent: the 10-32 Pacers.
Monday’s matchup begins a back-to-back, finishing with an outing against the Suns on Tuesday. And with this in mind, a couple of names are unsurprisingly on the injury report. Joel Embiid and Paul George are both questionable with left knee injury management, while Jared McCain is doubtful on G League assignment. Both Embiid and George have played in nine of the Sixers’ last 10 games, and with the Suns being the harder matchup of this back-to-back, we could see them rest up against Indiana instead if they aren’t going to appear in both games.
The Pacers will remain shorthanded. Apart from Tyrese Haliburton staying out for the season with his achilles tear, Obi Toppin (right foot stress fracture) and Bennedict Mathurin (right thumb sprain) are also out.
It’s been a brutal season for the Pacers without Haliburton. Their defense has just about been passable, ranking 18th, but with the league’s worst offensive rating, their dynamic up-tempo identity that they had with Haliburton orchestrating the team has all but disappeared.
Sure, there have been some positives for the Pacers. Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard are both having career years as they’ve taken on more ball-handling responsibilities (particularly new starting point guard Nembhard) in Haliburton’s absence, all while maintaining solid efficiency. Losing Mathurin on Monday hurts their already stuck offense, though, so the pressure is on in the backcourt for Nembhard to try and spark something against the explosiveness of Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe.
Then there’s Pascal Siakam, the team’s top scorer at 23.6 points per game, who’ll be the top assignment for Dominick Barlow and, if he’s in, George. Without Mathurin too, there’ll likely be even more Siakam drives for the Sixers’ defense to crash around.
Embiid continuing to look like his usual imposing self clearly bodes well if he does suit up on Monday. Over his last 13 games, he’s now averaged 27.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.1 blocks with a 61.6 true shooting percentage. With him back to parading his way to free throw line (making 85.8 percent of his 9.2 attempts per game in this stretch), bullying opponents with his face-up game and finding his signature mid-range rhythm again, the Sixers’ offense is looking more well-rounded alongside the Tyrese Maxey show.
If Embiid does sit this one, it’ll be interesting to see how Adem Bona fares. He’s continued to have some impressive moments lately himself…
What a sequence from Adem Bona!
A big-time slam followed by TWO incredible blocks 💥🚫🚫
As good as Jay Huff has been at center for the Pacers since Myles Turner’s departure — providing a little floor spacing, mobility, and 2.1 blocks in only 20.1 minutes per game — Indiana doesn’t have anyone to slow down an improving Embiid. Jo had 39 points in his last game against the Pacers, when the Sixers grabbed a 115-105 win, and they should have more than enough to get a similar result this time around.
Even if Embiid is sidelined, Maxey alone should be able to have his way on Monday. Ideally throw in some respectable three-point shooting, reasonable defensive effort, and a solid night from Edgecombe (despite coming off a couple of quieter games against Cleveland, he’s still averaging 15.1 points and 5.2 assists with 45.9/40.4/86.7 shooting splits in January so far), and the Sixers should be just fine against this Pacers team.
The Sixers’ schedule gets a harder for their next few games after Monday, with games against the Suns, Rockets then Knicks. This matchup against the lowly Pacers has to be one they capitalize on.
Game Details
When: Monday, January 19, 7:00 p.m. ET Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic Follow:@LibertyBallers
Lakers LeBron James and Luka Doncic high five Deandre Ayton during the fourth quarter of their win over Toronto at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday. (Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)
After finishing a grueling five-game stretch in seven days with a 110-93 win over the Toronto Raptors on Sunday, they embark on their longest road trip of the season, an eight-game marathon beginning Tuesday in Denver.
The Lakers (25-16) are clinging to a top-six playoff spot at the midpoint of the season despite playing 19 different starting lineups in the first 41 games. With guard Luka Doncic and centers Deandre Ayton and Jaxson Hayes back in the lineup after they were sidelined against Portland on Saturday, the Lakers notched their first win over a team with a winning record since Dec. 14.
“We’re staying together,” Ayton said. “There’s times where we’ve had some slump moments, but guys in here, we’re cool, we’re tight. … It’s a process and I feel like tonight is another step in the right direction.”
Here are three takeaways from the win:
Ayton in rare air
Lakers center Deandre Ayton goes up for a dunk against the Toronto Raptors at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday. (Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)
With 25 points on 10-for-10 shooting with 13 rebounds, Ayton became the first player this season to record at least 20 points on perfect shooting with at least 10 field goal attempts. After marveling at the Lakers’ championship tradition when he signed as a free agent this summer, the former No. 1 pick made his mark in the franchise record book as just the third Laker to shoot perfectly from the field on 10 or more attempts with at least 10 rebounds. The others are Wilt Chamberlain (March 11, 1969) and Mitch Kupchak (Nov. 20, 1981).
“That’s a thing I never even thought I would be a part of,” said Ayton, who also had zero turnovers. “I’m definitely honored and appreciative, but I love this game, so hopefully I get more of those.”
The center was returning from a one-game absence because of knee soreness. His impact on recent games has fluctuated as his energy dipped. During a particularly quiet stretch, coach JJ Redick said the center was frustrated that he wasn’t getting the ball more, which may have contributed to him averaging only 5.8 rebounds over five games and not finishing the fourth quarter on the court during two close games.
Redick encouraged his playmakers to make sure Ayton got touches early in games. The center now has double-doubles in three of his last four games.
“He's a very important guy for us,” said Doncic, who led the team with 25 points and seven assists. “Very important. … So got to look for him a lot. We got to look for him more. And if he plays like this, it gives us a way better chance to go [far].”
Hachimura finding his rhythm
Laker Rui Hachimura is starting to get his shooting touch back after missing a long stretch of games while recovering from an injury. (Luke Hales / Getty Images)
The two three-pointers Hachimura hit in the final two minutes of the third quarter Sunday will not be played on highlight reels, but they still were significant. They contributed to an 11-3 run that put the Lakers up by seven entering the fourth quarter and could be a sign of Hachimura's progress after returning from injury.
“Those were big shots for us,” Redick said. “They're a top-three defense. In a game like this, where it's hard to score, and it's a low possession game, and it can be a little muddy, those shots were huge for us.”
The two three-pointers were a much-needed sight for Hachimura, who finished with 10 points on four-for-10 shooting with two threes in six attempts. The forward said he still is finding his rhythm after a calf injury kept him out for six games.
Hachimura combined for 10 points in his first two appearances since the injury, shooting four for 11 from the field and two for seven from three-point range. He still is playing on a minutes restriction that keeps him on the bench to start games. But with 11 points against Portland on Saturday, Hachimura appears to be rediscovering his form, Redick said.
Hachimura played 21 minutes 46 seconds Sunday, the most since he returned from the calf injury. He still had a few more minutes available, Redick said.
In the zone
Finishing a grueling stretch of five games in seven days, the Lakers were “a little bit exhausted,” Hachimura acknowledged. Redick had a secret weapon to perk them up.
The Lakers rolled out a zone defense to begin the second quarter. The sheer size of a lineup with the 7-foot Ayton, 6-8 Jarred Vanderbilt, 6-9 James and 6-10 Drew Timme with 6-3 Marcus Smart at point guard was jarring to see in person, Redick acknowledged. But the zone defense was critical to helping slow the pace for a team trying to survive its fifth game in seven days.
Lakers forward Drew Timme shoots under pressure from Toronto Raptors forward Jamison Battle at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday. (Kyusung Gong / Associated Press)
The Lakers started the second quarter on a 9-0 run that quickly erased the Raptors’ seven-point lead.
Timme earned a place in the rotation for the second consecutive night after he scored a career-high 21 points against Portland on Saturday. He hit one three-pointer Sunday and had three rebounds with two assists.
The former Gonzaga star signed a two-way contract Nov. 25 after starring with the G League affiliate South Bay Lakers. He averaged a team-high 25.5 points, 7.5 rebounds and four assists in the first six G League games and has been able to translate that work to the NBA level, even if his opportunities are limited.
“[South Bay Lakers have] challenged me to add that to my game and be more of a playmaker on the perimeter and decision-maker on the perimeter,” said Timme, who has played 63 minutes in eight games. “And I've been down there for a decent amount, and then they hold me accountable and they push me and then they keep me sharp for moments when I am called upon. And you just gotta be ready whenever your number's called.”
The Colorado Avalanche have accomplished a lot of firsts this season.
First team in the League to reach 70 points. First team to win 30 regular season games. First team to have multiple ten game winning streaks. First team to lose just one game in regulation on home ice.
With a win against the Washington Capitals this afternoon, the Avalanche will ensure that last statistic doesn’t change.
Colorado Avalanche (33-5-8)
The Opponent: Washington Capitals (24-19-6)
Time: 2:00 P.M. MST/4:00 P.M. EST
Watch: TNT/HBO Max, TruTV (US National Broadcast), MNMT (Washington Capitals Broadcast Area Only) SN+, NHL Centre Ice (Canadian Broadcast Areas)
Listen: Altitude Sports Radio KKSE-FM 92.5 FM
Colorado Avalanche
It took over one hundred days (one hundred and one, to be exact) for the Avalanche to suffer their first regulation loss on home ice since the start of the 2025-2026 season. The Nashville Predators, who made their final trip of the regular season to Ball Arena last Friday, secured a 7-3 victory off a four point night from former Avalanche center Ryan O’Reilly (which included his seventh career hat trick) and a three point night from captain Roman Josi. Goaltender Juuse Saros stopped 40 of 43 shots for Nashville’s third straight win, which has pushed them into contention for the last wild card spot in the Western Conference.
Head Coach Jared Bednar didn’t mince words after his team’s performance, citing “no positives” could be gained from his team’s effort against Nashville. He didn’t stop there, saying he “hated that game from start to finish”.
Pretty accurate: the Avalanche surrendered the first goal of the game right out of the gate with just thirty seconds played to O’Reilly (a bit of payback of sorts for Brent Burns scoring just fifteen seconds on Saros in the Avs’ 3-0 victory at Bridgestone Arena back on November 22), which was the beginning of a very long night for the returning Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood, who had missed the past six games due to injury since recording a 6-1 victory over the St. Louis Blues on New Year’s Eve, stopped 23 of 28 shots in his first action of 2026. While some of those goals that got past him could be explained away as incredibly unfortunate (Sam Girard deflecting a puck past him), or near unpreventable (O’Reilly’s point-blank redirect of Luke Evangelista’s shot through heavy traffic), there were certainly others that Blackwood surrendered (Michael Bunting’s breakaway late in the second period) that would have been nice to see him come through with a save.
While many of the Avalanche skaters certainly deserve their fair share of criticism for their performance on Friday night, Brock Nelson may be one of the few who could be spared. Nelson matched O’Reilly goal for goal in the first period and gave his teammates opportunities to build on his efforts. Unfortunately, a completely uninspired second period allowed Nashville to take control of the game. Martin Nečas’ early third period goal that pulled the Avs within one provided a blip of hope, but Nashville rolled off three goals within a 2:28 span late (including a pair of empty net goals) to put the game out of reach.
While the loss to Nashville certainly stings, and they have played the Avalanche very tough this season, it’s important to keep in mind that this was the first regulation loss on Ball Arena ice this season, and it was due to happen at some point. Had they put together a more complete game and still came out on the losing end, the loss may not taste quite so bitter.
The loss also didn’t impact the Avs’ position as the undisputed leader across the Central Division, Western Conference, and entire League standings. Factor in that Dallas has only won twice this calendar year (and lost ten of its last twelve games) and Minnesota has won just three times in January, a lopsided loss for the Avs to Nashville—the single regulation loss on home ice this entire season—seems comically light by comparison.
Nathan MacKinnon remains the League leader in goal scoring (36), and will have a chance to reclaim the League lead in overall points from Edmonton’s Connor McDavid; MacKinnon is one point behind McDavid’s 83 points for the mark. Cale Makar still leads all defensemen in points (53), but Columbus’ Zach Werenski is one point shy of tying him for that mark. Scott Wedgewood still leads the League for the lowest goals against average (2.19), and while it seems plausible for Bednar to turn to him after being idle since the Avs’ overtime loss against Toronto, he may start Blackwood to keep him working to return to form and save Wedgewood for Wednesday’s game against Anaheim.
Today’s game against Washington will be the fifth game of the seven game home stand for the Avs. Prior to splitting the season series last year, Colorado enjoyed a four game winning streak against Washington dating back to November 19, 2022.
Projected Lineup
Forwards: Artturi Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Martin Nečas Gavin Brindley – Brock Nelson – Valeri Nichushkin Victor Olofsson – Jack Drury – Ross Colton Zakhar Bardakov – Parker Kelly – Ivan Ivan*
Defense: Cale Makar – Sam Girard Josh Manson – Brent Burns Ilya Solovyov – Sam Malinski
Between the Pipes: Mackenzie Blackwood Scott Wedgewood
*Ivan Ivan, who was recalled from Loveland ahead of the Nashville game, was sent back down after the loss. It’s possible he could be recalled again since he played in Saturday’s Colorado Eagles game but sat out on Sunday.
Washington Capitals
Washington can also relate to the struggles of Dallas and Minnesota, having only three wins to their credit to begin the month of January. They have lost six of their previous nine games since the start of the calendar year, the most recent being a 5-2 defeat at the hands of the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers on Saturday at Capital One Arena. As Brock Nelson was the primary source of offense for Colorado against Nashville, defenseman Jakob Chychrun filled that role for Washington against Florida, scoring the team’s only goals in the contest. After giving his team a 2-1 lead near the halfway mark of regulation, Florida scored four unanswered goals against goaltender Logan Thompson and never looked back.
Washington currently sits in fourth place in the Metropolitan Division, and trail the Buffalo Sabres (yes, the Buffalo Sabres) by three points for the final wild card spot in the Eastern Conference. With today’s game marking the start of a five game road trip through the Western Conference, which includes some winnable contests against Vancouver, Calgary, and Seattle, Washington can gain some ground (or build some momentum, at least) in the wild card race before wrapping up their road swing in Detroit prior to returning to the District.
If you were asked who was leading Washington in goals, you’d probably say it was Alex Ovechkin. Incredibly, Tom Wilson leads all Capitals skaters in goals (22), just eleven shy of his career best he posted last season (33). He also leads the team in points (42), and was recently named to Team Canada’s roster for the upcoming Olympics in Italy. Wilson, however, has not played for Washington since a 3-2 shootout loss to Chicago on January 3 due to injury. As for the NHL’s all-time leading goal-scorer, Ovechkin is second in goals (20) and points (41). Defenseman John Carlson is third on the team in points (38), and leads all Washington skaters in assists (29). Chychrun is second among Washington skaters in points (35), but leads all defensemen in goals (17).
Despite losing his last three starts, Thompson ranks sixth in goals against average among goaltenders (2.38), just behind Colorado’s Blackwood (2.26). He will likely get his fourth straight start in today’s contest against the Avalanche.
Washington skated away with a 5-2 victory over Colorado in their only visit to Ball Arena last season on November 15, 2024. They wrap up the season series against Colorado at home on March 22.
Projected Lineup
Forwards: Alex Ovechkin – Dylan Strome – Anthony Beauvillier Aliaksei Protas – Connor McMichael – Ryan Leonard Ivan Miroshnichenko – Nic Dowd – Ethen Frank Brandon Duhaime – Hendrix Lapierre – Brett Leason
Defense: Jakob Chychrun – John Carlson Martin Fehérváry – Matt Roy Rasmus Sandin – Trevor van Reimsdyk
Between the Pipes: Logan Thompson Charlie Lindgren
The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades: the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran.
Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.
Though the Royals’ outfield production might remain below average, their infield of Vinnie Pasquantino, Jonathan India, Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia should again be one of the most productive in baseball, particularly if India bounces back.
While the work General Manager JJ Picollo has done to upgrade his outfield has been more inspiring this offseason than last, it still feels as if the additions are falling a bit short of expectations, especially on a team with a better than average starting rotation and one of the elite superstars in the game on the roster in Bobby Witt Jr. People may not like to talk about windows of competitiveness, but when Witt is anchoring your ballclub and you’ve assembled a quality pitching staff on the back of fantastic coaching, that window is open and needs to be taken advantage of.
Last year, I gave Picollo the benefit of the doubt when given the explanation as to why the Royals weren’t able to find suitable outfield upgrades. The free agent class wasn’t the greatest and if there aren’t willing trade partners, then there’s not much he can do.
But to strike out two years in a row, if that is indeed what happens, isn’t a good look.
In May 2025, India was spiked on his knee by Willson Contreras. A month later, he suffered a shoulder injury making a diving play. Finally, in September, India landed on the injured list with a wrist injury. That shoulder injury is where we should focus the most, as it seemed to have a clear impact the remainder of India’s season. Take the below splits into account:
India was a completely different hitter after the shoulder injury. He didn’t miss any real time or land on the injured list, but it begs the question: was India hampered by the shoulder injury for much of 2025? The Royals are banking on a bounceback from India in 2026 and they’ll need it to find any value at second base. Perhaps playing fewer positions and getting back to the basics will help.
Last Thursday, at the same time news was breaking that the Colorado Rockies had arrived at a deal with Willi Castro, Paul DePodesta and Michael Lorenzen addressed media in two separate Zoom availabilities.
Last week, Evan Lang provided an overview of Lorenzen’s career and a glimpse of what the signing might mean, and Sam Bradfield covered some of the highlights of his interview. At this point, it’s worth taking a moment to consider the things that weren’t said — but are significant — in both pressers.
The Rockies pitching staff is recruiting
Lorenzen was clear that the Rockies new staff played a significant role in his decision to sign with Colorado — “I’ve known a lot of them for a really long time,“ Lorenzen said. His explanation of those relationships are worth quoting at length:
I’ve known Alon (Leichman) since I was, shoot, since 2017, I want to say — before he was in pro ball. So I’ve known him for a really long time, and me and him have kind of kept in touch throughout the years. And so when he told me he was interviewing for the job, I was stoked for him, and he mentioned that he was going to try and bring me in if he ended up getting the job, which is pretty cool that we’re able to work together.
And then Matt Daniels, I worked with, he’s the new pitching coordinator. I worked with him when he was at Driveline — the first time I went to DriveLine back in like, 2017, so I’ve known him for a really long time as well.
And then, I’ve known Gabe (Ribas) for a really long with the Tigers. Me and him are really close in spring training, so he cares. He’s really smart, good leader. So that’s the background when it comes to the pitching side.
And then I had (Jeff) Pickler on the coaching staff in Cincinnati. He’s the bench coach now, obviously. And so he likes to think outside the box, and, I like to say, he doesn’t play scared, which is nice.
And then Brett Pill went to Cal State Fullerton. So, it just seemed like, man, I know, everyone. It’s just great. It was a perfect fit.
What Lorenzen is saying, then, is that he decided to sign with Colorado in large part due to relationships he’s built over the years with the Rockies’ new coaching staff. For years, the Rockies were notoriously insular and unwilling to take risks. That Lorenzen chose to sign with them shows the benefits of bringing in new personnel and new ideas.
He’ll bring the pitching approach of the Kansas City Royals
In 2024 when the Kansas City Royals were in Denver, I interviewed a number of their pitching staff (see here and here). What emerged as less interesting than the interviews themselves, however, was the attitude of the starting rotation as a whole. With Michael Wacha taking a lead role, the Royals rotation developed a “workshop” mentality. They would watch each others bullpens and debrief together when the starter came out of the game. Lorenen spent the last two years working in that environment.
We mesh very well. Everybody has a different way of pitching and a different way of thinking about pitching, but we all pick each other’s brains about things, talk to each other when we come out of the game, and we talk about what we see, even if it’s lefty or righty. We talk about what we saw and the little things to kind of help out the next guy that’s going the next day or two days or three days from then.
The Royals created a safe environment for taking risks and devalued ego: The emphasis was on collective success.
Here’s how Lorenzen described bringing those values to Coors Field:
I definitely love the process of Kansas City. And the reason behind that is just there was no ego. It was, “We just want to win, and we want what works best and what allows us to perform at the best of our ability.”
Sometimes ego can get in the way a little bit, in a sense, to where it’s like, “Hey, you’re not doing what I’ve asked you to do. And it’s even though it may not be the right thing, it’s what I what I asked you to do. So just do it.” You know, one of those situations, which I’m not saying any team that I’ve been on has done that, but it can get there.
And with Kansas City, there was just absolutely no egos, like, “Hey, we don’t care what you do. Go ahead and try it. We like it. If it works, then go for it.”
And I think this staff is definitely going to be that way, for sure. And I think just doing that alone, we should see some improvement in guys taking ownership of their careers and being more in tune with, like I said before, problem solving, trying to figure out how do we problem solve? How do we put certain pieces together? Because that’s what it takes to perform at the big leagues, and that’s what it takes to stay at the big leagues, is you got to be able to problem solve. You have to be able to adapt. And so, this staff is definitely going to be a staff that that is adaptable, and we’re going to be able to adapt to adversity.
Given that part of what Lorenzen will be doing in the coming season is mentoring young pitchers, having a leader with this approach should prove valuable for the Rockies.
Here’s the thing about pitchers — and you probably already know this, but I just want to reiterate the point. Good pitchers are nerds. Complete and total nerds. In the best possible way.
The first thing Lorenzen said when asked about why he signed with Colorado was loving a challenge:
One of the things is just, I feel like it’s untapped. And I don’t think you could say that about anywhere else in Major League Baseball, that you get to go to a place that’s just, it feels like it’s untapped. It feels like there’s a lot of new information to be learned. And that’s kind of right up my alley.
I think if as you get to know me throughout the year, you’ll see that I enjoy problem solving. Failure is going to happen. Trials are going to happen. You’re going to get your teeth kicked in, but it’s the problem solving and how to make the adjustment. That’s something that I really enjoy.
And Colorado, I feel like, presents that opportunity. And so with that being said, the staff, too, that they’ve hired, it just seems like I’ve known a lot of them for a really long time, and it just seemed like the perfect fit to where we are all going to be on the same page of “How do we solve this problem?” You could take it from the perspective of look at the word “problem” in a negative way, or you can look at the word “problem” from the perspective of opportunity. That’s always intrigued me about Colorado.
There’s a lot to unpack. Lorenzen wants the challenge, and feels like he’s found a staff that he can collaborate with.
The familiarity’s there, and what’s nice, too, is they’re all pretty young, so I don’t feel like they’re too far off from my age.
So, it’ll be really nice in a sense of I’m already talked to Alon, and there’s going to be some back and forth between me and him, which I think is really good. Through the debates, and like, “No, I think this is how we do it.” He’s like, “No, I think you’re dumb, and I think we should do it this way.” And it’s like, “Well, that doesn’t make sense to me.”
I think we’ll be able to have honest conversations like that. When you can have honest conversations like that, that’s how you really grow, and that’s how you really solve problems.
That right there, Reader, is the good stuff: an approach cracking the Rubik’s cube of Coors Field using science, trust, and collaboration.
Lorenzen revealed during the presser that he’s created a variation on his changeup over the offseason. One of the benefits of signing Lorenzen is his eight-pitch mix. Leichman and his staff will have a skilled veteran pitcher to test any range of pitches to see how they work.
Think of him as a kind of pitching lab rat — and I write that as the highest compliment.
Also worth noting, he’s planning to come to Coors Field soon to throw a bullpen and see how his stuff plays at elevation. These are all signs of a pitcher embracing a challenge.
No one knows that the 2026 Colorado Rockies will look like. But we do know they’ll look different, and we’re going to see a new kind of baseball at Coors Field.
Bring it on.
Reminder: Rockies Fest is this weekend
Here’s a list of attendees and schedule:
Todd Helton and Larry Walker will be there… will you?
This Thomas Harding article is well worth your time. In addition to describing Michael Lorenzen’s relationship to the Rockies pitching staff, Harding also delves into the pitcher’s training with Ido Portal. It’s interesting stuff.
