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Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is heating up and profiles well for continued success against Houston Astros starter Peter Lambert, making Over 1.5 total bases for Vladdy my favorite play tonight.

Read on for my Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this Tuesday, June 23 matchup.

Astros vs Blue Jays predictions

Astros vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. profiles extremely well against Peter Lambert. 

The Houston Astros starter primarily throws a fastball/sinker/slider combination, which is a pitch mix that Vladdy has handled well this season, with a .314 batting average and a .331 BABIP.

Lambert has also allowed solid contact at a 7.5% rate, which is 1.6% above league average.

Guerrero Jr. is barreling the baseball more efficiently lately, too, which has seen an uptick in production over the last two weeks where he owns a .409 average and a .591 SLG.

Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has eclipsed this number in four of his last five games with a .526 SLG over this stretch, showing serious signs of a turnaround, which gives me confidence in his market.

I’d bet Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases down to +100. 

COVERS INTEL: Guerrero ranks in the 94th percentile in xBA, and owns a 137 WRC+ over his last 20 at-bats.

Astros vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

George Springer is turning a corner, too, sporting a .351 average and 1.090 OPS over his last 10 games, recording a hit in eight of those outings. Additionally, he’s historically hit well against Lambert‘s pitch mix. 

I’ll also add Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits. He owns a .375 average against Lambert's pitches since June 1, while recording at least one hit in 13 of 18 games this month.

Astros vs Blue Jays SGP

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• George Springer Over 0.5 hits
• Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits

Astros vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+280)

Okamoto profiles well against Lambert, who gives up a lot of solid contact, while ranking in the 48th percentile in hard-hit rate.

This all plays into Okamoto’s strengths, as he barrels the ball as well as anyone on the Jays roster and leads the team with 17 home runs while owning a .553 SLG and a 58.1% hard-hit rate against Lambert's pitch mix.

Additionally, Lambert has surrendered six home runs over his last seven-outings.

Despite the good matchup for Okamoto, the home run market is volatile, so I’ll make this a half-unit wager. 

Astros vs Blue Jays odds

• Moneyline: Houston +112 | Toronto -132
• Run line: Houston +1.5 | Toronto -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Astros vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays have hit the Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.30 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Astros vs Blue Jays and game info

Astros vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Astros vs Blue Jays weather

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The Dodgers got about as good of a pitching game as they could have hoped for in the series opener against the Minnesota Twins. Eric Lauer followed an opener on Monday, in part to avoid having him face Byron Buxton three times. Buxton proved why by hitting his 25th home run of the season in the first inning against said opener, Will Klein.

Lauer entered a 1-1 game in the second inning and got all the way through the seventh with no runs and no hits on his ledger, and a 2-1 lead.

The only other time a Los Angeles Dodgers reliever pitched at least six innings without allowing a hit was Dave Stewart on August 9, 1982, pitching the final six frames of a 13-inning win over the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium.

That Stewart performance was part of a chaotic pennant race for the Dodgers, who trailed the Atlanta Braves by 10 games as late as July 28. The Stewart game was the seventh straight win that brought them to within a half-game of Atlanta. The Dodgers would claim first place the next day, only 13 days after that 10-game deficit.

Six other Brooklyn Dodgers pitchers logged at least six hitless innings in relief:

• Ed Reulbach, August 13, 1913 vs. Pirates
• Elmer Brown, September 26, 1913 vs. Giants
• Doug McWeeny, May 6, 1926 at Cardinals
• Jack Banta, June 24, 1949 at Pirates (6 2/3 innings)
• Carl Erskine, September 5, 1949 vs. Braves (7 innings)
• Bob Milliken, September 9, 1953 at Reds (8 1/3 innings)

The longest of these hitless relief outings was by Bob Milliken in 1953. He took over for rookie Johnny Podres with two outs in the first innings — looked like an injury of some sort, as Podres didn’t pitch again for 13 days — then finished out the game by recording the final 25 outs.

Tuesday game info

• Teams: Dodgers at Twins
• Ballpark: Target Field, Minneapolis
• Time: 4:40 p.m. PT
• TV: SportsNet LA, TBS (out of market)
• Radio: AM 570 (English), KTNQ 1020 AM (Spanish)

Count me shocked that the Mariners were able to win one of their games against that trio of lefty starters the Red Sox rolled out last weekend. That win on Sunday wrapped up a 3-3 homestand and pushed the team another game ahead of their division rivals. Now the team embarks on a midwest road trip through Pittsburgh and Cleveland.

With a ton of young talent matriculating into the big leagues and a starting rotation anchored by Paul Skenes, the Pirates looked poised to break out of their long rebuilding cycle this year. They actually spent money on a few free agents in the offseason and traded for some more talent to bolster the lineup. They were rewarded with a quick start to the season, running a 16-11 record through April 25. They’ve fallen back towards .500 since then, though they’re still in the thick of the NL Wild Card hunt. 

The Pirates signed Ryan O’Hearn to the largest free agent contract for a position player in franchise history this offseason. That’s pretty incredible from an organizational standpoint and that it ended up being O’Hearn who set that record. To his credit, O’Hearn has been a solid first baseman and corner outfielder for the past three years and he’s been just as good for the Pirates this season, rocking a 115 wRC+. They also traded for Brandon Lowe and that has worked out wonderfully; he’s leading the team in home runs with a 126 wRC+. Among the holdovers from last year, Bryan Reynolds has bounced back from a dismal season in 2025 to lead the team with a 145 wRC+. Unfortunately for the Pirates, young phenom Konnor Griffin has been sidelined with a forearm injury for the past month.

Probable Pitchers 

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

Mitch Keller has been a solid, if uninspiring mid-rotation starter for the last five years. He’s also been incredibly consistent in that time; his FIP hasn’t risen above 4.08 and hasn’t fallen below 3.80. Despite that consistency, his peripherals look the worst they’ve been since 2021; his strikeout rate has fallen to 18.4% and his walk rate has jumped up to 8.8%. Only some good home run luck has allowed him to keep his FIP inside that range mentioned above. He’s always been a tinkerer, and this year, he’s reintroduced a cutter to his repertoire. The real issue is that his other two fastballs have been crushed by opposing batters and the rest of his secondary pitches haven’t been able to make up the difference.

Between Paul Skenes, Konnor Griffin, and a host of other top prospects on the Pirates roster, it’s been easy to overlook Braxton Ashcraft. He was a top prospect in his own right and had a strong debut season last year, compiling a 2.71 ERA and 2.78 FIP in 18 relief appearances and eight starts. The Pirates were pretty cautious with his workload last year but have given him a full-time role in the starting rotation this year and he’s run with the opportunity. He’s got a pair of excellent breaking balls that more than make up for the lack of a strong fastball. Nearly half of his pitch mix is made up of those breaking balls, and their quality is such that he doesn’t really need an offspeed pitch to keep left-handed batters at bay. He can just spin a curveball or bury a slider to a lefty and generate enough swing and miss to thrive.

Among the non-Skenes pitching prospects in Pittsburgh’s pipeline, Bubba Chandler had the most hype. And while Ashcraft is having the type of season we expected from Chandler, Chandler probably has the higher ceiling once he fully develops. A lack of command is the biggest area he needs to address — an issue that’s led to a 13.1% walk rate this year. His fastball is fantastic with velocity and carry at the top of the zone. His tremendous arm speed helps his changeup really play up, though he’s still working on developing his trio of breaking balls. Once he figures out his command and finds a bit more consistency, he’ll be a top of the rotation arm for the Pirates. Until then, he’s a work-in-progress.

The Big Picture:

The Rangers managed to climb back into a tie with the Athletics after winning their weekend series against the Padres and winning the first game of a series against the Marlins yesterday night. For their part, the Athletics wound up splitting their four-game series against the Angels last weekend and will start a three-game set against the Giants tonight. The Astros are also lurking at 3.5 games back in the division; they won their series against the Guardians over the weekend but dropped the first game of their series against the Blue Jays yesterday.

The Detroit Tigers called up outfielder Ben Malgeri on Tuesday, sending utilityman Trei Cruz back to Triple-A Toledo. To open a 40-man roster spot for Malgeri, RHP Burch Smith has been moved to the 60-day injured list. They also announced a lot of promotions throughout the farm system on Tuesday. Typically, the Tigers start moving prospects from around this point in the year until the post-draft, post-trade deadline part of the calendar, so we should see a fair amount of movement over the next 5-6 weeks. The big moves today were the promotion of outfielder Brett Callahan and infielder John Peck from Double-A Erie to Triple-A Toledo.

Cruz didn’t get much of a look at the show, but he wasn’t really swinging the bat to his best ability in Toledo when initially called up. Let him try and heat up and he should be back at some point. Meanwhile, the 26-year-old Malgeri was long thought as just an org outfielder but has really improved his game over the past two seasons. A right-handed hitter who can play center field but is much better suited to the corners, Malgeri hits lefties well but has balanced out his splits more this season. He’s been a popular choice to replace Jahmai Jones, but the Tigers still aren’t there yet. Congrats to Malgeri on making it to the Show.

You can find more on Callahan and Peck on our midseason farm system update on the front page at Bless You Boys. Callahan in particular has been on a tear and the 24-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder is clearly ready for the next challenge. Peck still has a little more work to do in terms of his plate discipline, but the right-handed hitter can play anywhere on the infield including shortstop. The duo are an athletic, well-rounded pair of players on track to give the Tigers some bench and utility options next year, and if they break out further with the bat they could become future regulars.

Reliever Moises Rodriguez, who throws a hellacious sinker that gets up to 100 mph, though more commonly 98, with a pretty good breaking ball, has been placed on the 7-day injured list. He generally throws strikes when he needs to, but still needs to command the sinker at least more consistently to push his way into conversation for the Tigers bullpen. Hopefully it’s a minor injury.

There were plenty of other promotions as right-handed starter Hayden Minton and first baseman Garrett Pennington were promoted from High-A West Michigan to Double-A Erie. Infielder Max Burt will also move up with them to help backfill Peck’s role.

From Lakeland, right-handed starter Charlie Christensen and reliever Eliseo Mota were promoted from Single-A Lakeland to West Michigan. Christensen’s big extension, low arm angle, and nasty slider-changeup combination have given young hitters fits in the Florida State League. He feels like a future reliever, as his sinker is underpowered and relies more on deception than raw stuff, but the 22-year-old out of Central Arkansas, the Tigers’ 13th rounder last summer in the draft, looks like another bargain that is paying off so far. Mota is a 23-year-old right-handed reliever who is underpowered, but has been punching tickets left and right in Lakeland.

Finally, outfielder Patrick Lee has been reinstated to West Michigan from his rehab assignment in the Complex League.

Presumably we’ll get more corresponding moves in the days to come, although some of it may simply be the release of some minor league veteran players brought in to fill out depth roles in the system. News keeps emerging today, and we’ve updated this article twice already as new news rolls in. Apologies for any confusion.

The Boston Red Sox saw their season come to an end during Monday’s sickening loss to the Colorado Rockies.

If we’re all being honest with each other, there were already nails being hammered into the coffin — the utter shit show that was the final two innings of that game just happened to be the final one.

The Red Sox collectively puked on themselves, shit down their legs, and pulled out a gun to shoot themselves in the foot, eventually leading to a 3-2 walk-off loss at Coors Field. Willson Contreras, Masataka Yoshida, and Marcelo Mayer put together useless at-bats while clinging onto a two-run lead. Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman, both of whom barely pitch anymore, couldn’t get anyone out. Jarren Duran completely butchered the final play of the game, leading to the game-winning run.

It’s about as bad as it sounds, yet was somehow wholly unsurprising.

Boston has been facing an uphill battle for months, with a collection of deep-rooted issues all hindering the performance of the baseball team — the hitting program clearly sucks, identifying quality pitchers has been anything but a consistent endeavor, there was and still continues to be an odd power struggle happening between ownership, the front office, and the coaching staff, etc. I just don’t think people were quite ready to admit that things are as bad as they are… until now.

It’s not like losing to a bad team is enough to declare the season dead, it’s doing it in the fashion they did it. You can’t just start finding new ways to lose at this point! It’s supposed to be formulaic— you fall behind by a couple of runs and the offense isn’t good enough to climb out of a hole. Chapman can’t blow saves! Duran can’t revert back to being a butcher! Yoshida can’t be uncompetitive with a chance to add insurance!

Yet, that’s what happened. The Red Sox officially hit rock bottom, squandering an opportunity to kick off the most important week of their season with an impressive and/or formulaic victory over an inferior opponent.

If they can’t show fight against this team and under these circumstances, they never will.

It’s over folks.

The Red Sox are dead, so enjoy the time off before they get interesting again — which is either when they do something wildly dramatic or after the lockout.

It might be a while…

The middle of the season is just about here (no, the All-Star Game is not the middle of the season), which means it’s good to stop and take stock of how the Phillies have been doing. It’s pretty simple for me to list all the of the ways that Kyle Schwarber has improved this year and condense it into 800-900 words, but instead, what do you think?

What has surprised you the most this year so far, good or bad?

If there is a “something else”, what is it? Let us know and check back this week for the results and a little bit of digging into it.

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Phillies fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

It is no secret that the Astros OF has performed poorly offensively this season, threatening to be their worst offensive OF of all time.

Young prospects Cam Smith, Brice Matthews, and Zach Cole have not performed well. Former prospect Joey Loperfido has battled both injury and underperformance. CF Jake Meyers has shown none of the contact ability he showed for the first time last season.

In fact, the OF who has hit the best for them that is currently on the active roster (no, Yordan doesn’t count) has been Taylor Trammell, but despite his solid average has a meager OPS as there has been no power in his offense.

LaMonte Wade Jr. performed well in his 4 games with the team before suffering a hamstring injury that currently has him sidelined.

With that, it is notable that the Astros promoted OF Lucas Spence to Triple-A Sugar Land today.

The Astros under GM Dana Brown have shown a propensity to push young players quickly, and Spence is a young lefthanded hitting OF who can play all three OF positions.

According to MLB.com, Spence is currently ranked as the Astros #10 overall prospect. He is considered an above average fielder with a plus arm and plus speed. His hit tool is still a work in progress and he is not considered a power hitter.

However, he has had a tremendous month of June at Double-A Corpus Christi, where he has hit for strong power, as noted in Jimmy Price’s post on X above.

With the Astros OF floundering at the plate, a strong representation from Spence at Triple-A could earn him a call up and an opportunity with the big league club, similar to how Zach Cole got a shot late last season (one that the team liked enough that they had hoped he could take another step forward and claim a regular job this spring, but alas…).

It is certainly worth watching.

The Yankees’ catching carousel keeps moving along, as only days after getting sent down to Triple-A, J.C. Escarra is once again back with the big-league club to replace Ali Sánchez, who was placed on the paternity list. This move comes a day after Sánchez had to leave early in a game against the Tigers, having been hit on the wrist by a four-seam fastball, something we don’t recommend.

Sánchez, who was starting against the left-hander Framber Valdez, was replaced midgame by Austin Wells, who will once again share the catching duties with Escarra, leaving the Yankees currently without a right-handed catching option on the roster. While an X-ray was negative, according to New York Post reporter Greg Joyce, we still await news on a potential CT scan to fully determine the extent of the damage done by this HBP — particularly, whether Sánchez will indeed require an IL stint. In the short term, Sánchez’s wife was expecting anyway, so the roster logistics allow him to go on the paternity list as they welcome a new baby into the world. The Yankees can work out any IL details at a later time.

After right-hander Casey Mize toes the rubber tonight, the Yankees will seemingly face not one, not two, not three, but four consecutive southpaw starters, beginning with the greatest that MLB currently has to offer in Tarik Skubal. If Boston follows its current rotation, then Connelly Early, Payton Tolle, and Jake Bennett will pitch their first three games this weekend. In fact, New York will face Skubal twice in this short period with multiple series against the Tigers, and being obligated to start a lefty catcher at all times is not ideal. So it goes.

Astros SS Jeremy Pena left last night’s game with a cramp in his right hamstring. This is the same hamstring he injured previously in the season (although manager Joe Espada incorrectly identified it as the left hamstring in his post-game presser).

Pena was removed from the game as a precaution as the team doesn’t want him to re-injure himself, particularly at a time when he is playing well and his importance to the team cannot be higher.

Here are Pena’s comments after last night’s game where he explains what happened and that he doesn’t think it will cost him much time: