The season is upon us! Let’s do a public confidence poll. Ok a scale of 1 to 10, how confident are you going into the season?
James: I would say a 5 or 8. I am supremely confident (8) that Arizona will have a largely average season. That mediocrity will likely result in a very pedestrian finish of something within spitting distance of .500 one way or the other by the end of the season.
Spencer: Solid 4. Arizona is overspending to pretend like they are contenders. I am confident we will spend the year getting the next wave developed in appropriate ways. That means Lawlar getting regular MLB reps. Waldy getting a cup of coffee. Dix, Jones, etc getting their next opportunities with affiliates. But at the major league level? Perdomo will regress to being very good instead of Ohtani level, Carroll will take time to get his power back.
Preston: I’m going with 6. I think the offense will continue to be good; while I don’t expect Perdomo to repeat his season entirely, I think the ABS challenge system might help him turn a few more strikeouts into walks. The defense should be better. But that pitching staff? Ouch. One of us might be able to join it by midseason. (One note on my predictions: going into 2016 I was high on the rebuilt pitching staff. They rewarded my confidence with an 88 ERA+ and a FIP of 4.50.)
A note on Perdomo. In integrated baseball, there have been 64 seasons by a shortstop with an OPS+ of 135 or higher. Nine of those belong to a known PED user, and three more happened in 2020. Another was Rich Aurelia in 2001, on a team of noted PED users. It’s far more likely that Perdomo becomes a one-year wonder than that he joins Corey Seager and Bobby Witt Jr. as the best hitting shortstops in history in a single season (both posted 174 OPS+, Seager in 2023 and Witt in 2024.)
Ben: I’ll say 5.5 simply because the pitching staff as a whole could be an absolute nightmare before the All-Star Break. I think the offense could be a pure, dynamic dream to watch with an excellent balance of speed, contact, and power up and down the lineup. We have to hope that getting Puk, Justin Martinez, and Burnes back at some point will buoy the whole team
1AZfan1: 6. I’m fairly confident we’ll play competent baseball most nights, but I think the bullpen will hold us back from being able to secure 88+ wins (target to make the playoffs). I think April will tell us a lot based on our incredibly difficult strength of schedule and not yet having our TJ arms back. If we’re close at the end of April and our bullpen isn’t a dumpster fire (or it is a dumpster fire but the starting pitching and lineup are good enough to overcome it) without Puk and J-Mart, I’ll bump that confidence level up.
Justin: 6
Dano: Yeah, I’m inclined to go with 6, especially since I just offered up my season W-L prediction and now I see that 1AZFan1 has put a value of 6/10 on broadly what my prediction was. But you know? Screw that. I do genuinely believe, for no good reason very likely, that we are going to overperform expectations this season. So let’s call it a 7!
Makakilo: This season is unusual because of the wide range of possible wins. My view is that the Diamondbacks will win between 81 and 89 games, depending on the health and performances of nearly all Diamondbacks players. Therefore, my confidence that they will reach the playoffs is less than 50%. Nevertheless, there is a realistic chance of reaching the playoffs. My confidence is about 4.
A different perspective on Perdomo. On Tuesday, this AZ Snake Pit article is scheduled to post. It looks at Perdomo’s batting strengths and weaknesses. It talks about four reasons that his 2025 breakout will continue this season.
What’s one prediction you have for this season that you feel is actually likely to happen?
James: Torey Lovullo is almost certain to spend a majority of the season dodging questions about bullpen usage. He really is not currently blessed with an abundance of quality options. Hopefully, as the season wears on, the team will develop and implement some relievers out of the pool of arms they acquired last summer.
Spencer: The team trades away expensive contracts midseason to save money (Gurriel, ERod, etc.). Whether this is because of a straight selloff or younger replacements with upside, I’m not sure. Maybe both.
Preston: We hear more about a player being “this year’s Geraldo Perdomo” than we ever heard about Perdomo last year. Or this year, except in the connection of whatever Dodger or Yankee is outperforming expectations.
1AZfan1: Preston had a pretty good one. I’ll predict this is Torey’s last season with us. I don’t think it’s the right call to let him go because I think there are very few managers who actually add a significant amount of wins to their teams and we are highly unlikely to get one as a replacement, but I imagine that we’ll once again finish the season right around .500 and there will be too much pressure from ownership/public to make a change.
Makakilo: Loaisiga will be on the opening day roster. In January, I wrote that Jonathan Loaisiga has a chance to win a spot in the bullpen.
Ben: There will be more than two rookies in the regular starting lineup by the end of the season. I’m not sure who those rookies will be, but there are several intriguing names sitting down in Reno who could contribute at the major league-level soon.
Dano_in_Tucson: We are going to win more games than we lose, and improved performance from our starting rotation is going to substantially be why.
Do you have any crazy, off the wall predictions for this season?
James: I’m honestly not sure that any of my predictions for the season are that off the wall. For the league, I think we may see a record-low for the number of qualified starts in a season. Is that particularly off the wall though, given the direction the game is moving? For the team, I guess I would say my big “off the wall” prediction would relate to Paul Sewald. He was given a guaranteed MLB contract and he has no options remaining. Usually, that would all but ensure he finishes the season on a Major League roster. I am honestly not convinced Sewald manages to make it to the end of the season before being cut loose by Arizona as the youth displaces him.
Spencer: AJ Puk signs an extension.
Preston: The Diamondbacks will have a pitcher named to the All Star Team, but Ketel Marte will not be there. How? After last year’s controversy, expect Marte to opt-out unless he’s truly having a remarkable season. That takes care of the second part of the equation. For the first part of the equation, Ryne Nelson will start the year in the rotation, and he’s pitched like an All Star in the second half of the last two seasons, plus a plethora of pitchers always opt-out. Eduardo Rodriguez looked good in the WBC so he might put together a solid first half, and Zac Gallen has name recognition. There’s also the chance that the league office will want to honor veteran players who are nearing the end of their careers in hopes of getting their support in negotiations and name Merrill Kelly to the team. He’s the best pitcher not named to an All Star team over the last few seasons, so he’s not at all undeserving on that note.
1AZfan1: Dodgers don’t win the division. Last year was closer than we all expected, with the NL West crown legitimately not being decided until the last week of the season. Injuries to the Dodgers pitching staff are a given, then all it takes are a couple poorly-timed injuries to the offense and the Dodgers are looking at a 90-win season. One of the Padres, Giants, or even Diamondbacks, could do better than 90 wins.
Makakilo: The Diamondbacks pitcher with the most saves will not be on the opening day roster.
Ben: Zac Gallen will return to form and get Cy Young votes at the end of the season.
Dano_in_Tucson: Oh, what the heck. I’m leaning into optimism for whatever reason just now, so let me just reiterate a thought I shared after Venezuela won the 2026 World Baseball Classic: bolstered by his crucially important and utterly brilliant start in the final against the US, our favorite hologram, Eduardo Rodriguez, will have an absolute banner year for the Diamondbacks and end the season at least in the conversation regarding who actually was our de facto ace.
When it’s all said and done, which Diamondbacks get awards votes?
James: With Moreno and Carroll starting the season hurt and Marte being a year older at second, I’m not sure that anyone will get votes enough to win anything. Those three players, plus Perdomo, may all receive a few votes for Gold Glove, but I think that’s likely it.
Spencer: Ryne Nelson for Cy Young. Marte and Perdomo for MVP.
Preston: This may be another year where the eligibility changes render someone losing votes. In 2023, Gabriel Moreno would have been a rookie had the rules not changed, and would have gotten plenty of votes. This year, that role is played by Jordan Lawlar, who I don’t predict to be at the level of Carroll in 2023, but will be good enough to get some down-ballot support if he were eligible.
1AZfan1: Alek will get Gold Glove votes, and possibly win it, in left field. I think Lawlar will do well enough to hold things down in center and Alek will be overqualified to play a corner outfield position.
Makakilo: Spencer is likely correct.
Ben: I think Spencer’s predictions are the strongest candidates for awards, but I could see a scenario where Gabriel Moreno stays healthy and makes a push for a Gold Glove at catcher. He was a top-15 player there last year and that was while missing significant time with various injuries.
Dano_in_Tucson: Yeah, I am with Spencer on both of those as well. Also, I agree with 1AZFan1 that Alek Thomas will get Gold Glove votes–assuming, of course, that he hits well enough once the regular season kicks off to keep himself in the lineup most every day.
And what’s one storyline you’re looking at in the broader MLB?
James: Labour strife and what the league does from now through the trade deadline to paint the players in as negative a light as possible. The current CBA prevents the players from scuttling the season the way they did back in 1994, or I would be starting a lottery for when in August/September the season comes crashing to a halt. I still remain firmly convinced that the league is going to miss a significant number of games in 2027. But, if things get any uglier in the early-season or if some sort of controversy develops before the break, I could see the season limping to an end as the 2027 season goes up in flames entirely.
Spencer: Skubal. His reputation was at an all time high after arbitration then hit a low when he only wanted to reap the benefits of the WBC without actually helping (read: doing anything). How he handles that stress will be important for the Mets and Yankees to watch in anticipation of his ability to survive NYC expectations. And if he hurts himself, his big payday is gone and he’ll have to “settle” for a contract beginning with 1 instead of 4.
Preston: The Dodgers. Is it better for them to win again so the players might get frustrated and we avoid a work stoppage, or is it better for them to have a down year so every other owner/fan base can regain some hope? I don’t know the answer, I just know that I am hoping that everything from “Homer at the Bat” befalls that overpaid and overhyped roster.
1AZfan1: The upcoming CBA negotiations top the list for me. I’m hopeful those talks become the most consequential of our generation, introducing some meaningful form of salary cap. Beyond that, I want to see if baseball can capitalize on the incredible WBC and become more popular domestically. Part of that likely depends on the CBA negotiations and whether or not there is a lockout, but baseball hasn’t been this hot in a long time. Can they keep it going or was it just a flash in the pan?
Makakilo: Possible new rules are being experimented with. Does baseball have more rule changes next season?
Ben: It’s hard to ignore the labor situation as it will loom over nearly everything that happens this season – from standings to shadow campaigns by both sides to paint themselves in the most sympathetic light while villainizing the other. I will be most interested to see how the labor situation affects any extensions and midseason trades. I suspect most front offices have a labor stoppage of some kind baked into their projections, but it will be a factor undoubtedly.
Dano_in_Tucson: Yeah, it’s the labor stoppage that I can’t imagine isn’t coming at the end of the 2026 season, and the maneuvering and messaging on both sides as we barrel, seemingly inexorably, toward that. I expect it will be enraging, depressing, maddening, and also probably incredibly fascinating, especially for a labor economics nerd like me.
