Category: Sports News

Last Friday, ORSTLcardsfan wrote about how the Cardinals might approach the upcoming offseason by looking at the 40 man roster, seeing who could be shed and who needed to be added, plus highlighting team needs over the offseason. He made a comment that got my attention: he put Matthew Liberatore in the nontender category. That got my attention because the thought had not occurred to me, and he said he wasn’t expecting it either.

It inspired this post. There are nine players entering arbitration next season. For some of them, this will not be their first rodeo, Liberatore included. Last I checked, MLB Trade Rumors, pretty much the gold standard for this, estimated the Super Two cutoff at 2.130 years of service. Riley O’Brien is at 2.129 years of service. They did estimate this based on where players where at as of the trading deadline, so it could change. Riley O’Brien would be Super Two eligible in 7 of the last 17 seasons, so it’s certainly possible. Let’s make him our tenth player.

The idea is simple: I estimate what a player’s salary will be and then will determine whether they are tendered a contract. I will be using Point of Pittsburgh’s numbers, admittedly it is from 2016. So a little bit outdated, but I’m guessing the numbers haven’t changed wildly. According to their calculations, a player will earn 25% of their free agent value in their first year of arb, 40% in their second year of arb, and 62% in their third year of arb. It works differently for Super Two players. For them, it’s 18% in their first year, 33% in their second year, 50% in their third year and 69% for their fourth year.

Andre Pallante

Service Time: 4.145 (translated, this means 4 years, 145 days)

Pallante should see a decent bump. He was eligible for Super Two back in 2025, earning $2.1 million. Pallante supports Point of Pittsburgh’s method actually, because based off that, he “should” have made $3.85 million in his second year. His actual salary was $4 million. But the Cardinals and Pallante came to an agreement before a hearing and that means it was between the Cardinals number and Pallante’s number. Not to mention, it’s possible his value raised slightly due to making 31 starts and throwing 162 innings even if they were below average innings. I wouldn’t be surprised if arbitration valued a below average and full-time, healthy starter over a swingman.

With all that said, there is no doubt in my mind that 50% of Pallante’s value will be based off a higher figure than what his previous arb figures were based on. It won’t be as much of a difference as you’d expect – the standard set by the initial figures still matters. But they do change the price slightly. If arbitration valued him exactly the same way, he’d get a $6 million salary. Based on his 2.7 fWAR season, he’d get a $13.5 million salary. Arbitration wouldn’t project him for him to repeat that season though.

An unscientific guess on my part is splitting the difference. Let’s say he projects for 2.2 WAR. Take the average and I get $8.5 million. That sounds right to me. With two years of team control and a projection probably over 2 WAR, you can see how he’d be pretty valuable on the trade market. Just throwing it out there. He’s a no brainer keep though.

Estimated Salary: $8.5 million

Conclusion: Tender a contract

Alec Burleson

With Burleson, we have yet another player whose value has been raised. Burleson is actually a virtually identical hitter to last season, believe it or not. His struggles in September have gone way under the radar, but he has an 80 wRC+ this month and actually it’s worse than that because he went 1 for 5 with a single yesterday. He is somehow still racking the RBIs which is probably why nobody is really noticing it. But he had a 123 wRC+ last year, he has a 122 wRC+ this year. However, there’s a good chance arbitration does actually care about RBIs and better defense at 1B has led to a higher WAR, not to mention what will be well over 100 more plate appearances. It adds up.

I have already looked into Burleson’s arbitration price when I looked at a Burleson extension. I see no reason to alter what I thought then. I said if arbitration viewed him exactly the same, he’d be worth $5.3 million based on his $3.3 million in his first year. I threw out the new number of $7 million, which might actually be high, because I think he had a 130 wRC+ then. However, he’s effectively the same exact player, but seen by arbitration, he plays more and with lots of RBIs. So I’ll stick with $7 million.

Well, I already advocated for a Burleson extension, so you shouldn’t be surprised at my conclusion.

Estimated salary: $7 million

Conclusion: Tender a contract

Nolan Gorman

Well, the fun had to end sometime. I don’t know if there’s a point in figuring out his price. At best, arbitration will view him exactly the same. It’s likely he wouldn’t see a very big raise though. He made $2.6 million in his first year of arbitration, and based on that, he’d make $4.16 million in his second year of arb. He wasn’t exactly coming off a good season last year either, but clearly his numbers got worse. I think the lack of homers would especially hurt him.

I honestly don’t think we’re going to find out, but let’s say $3.5 million is his arbitration price. It’s not really about the money with Gorman. Gorman needs a change of scenery. It’s not going to happen here. For a really bad team with a bad situation at 3B, Gorman is a good shoot for the moon pickup – honestly just getting out of Busch Stadium might help him. But the Cardinals have two unlikely, but potentially the future guys he’d get in the way of and a lot more potential behind them and Gorman has become the new Arenado, but with no trade value.

Estimated salary: $3.5 million

Conclusion: Nontender

Matthew Liberatore

The man who inspired this post. I am going to pay attention to his 2027 number, because I do want to know how much arbitration values a 30+ start starter, even if that starter wasn’t very good. Liberatore’s arb 1 salary, which was Super 2, was $2.26 million. That’s not a lot, but Liberatore didn’t have a good track record aside from 2025 and his 2025 was mediocre. What I’m saying is that if leading up to 2026, Liberatore had a 2023 and a 2024 that looked a hell of a lot like his 2025, his salary would have been higher.

Because he made 31 starts and because he exceeded his innings last year, I don’t think his value will take a hit and there is a small chance arbitration thinks he’d be worth (slightly) more in free agency, purely based on games started and innings. I repeat what I said about Pallante: a below average starter is worth more than a swingman. That said, if he gets a bump, it’s really not much. Based on his 2026 salary, he would make $4.14 million. I’ll just say $4.5 million for 2027.

Whatever the Cardinals think of Liberatore, I think there’s about a 1% chance they nontender him at that price. I just don’t see it. They just gave Ryne Stanek $5 million. The reliever version of Liberatore is certainly worth a $4.5 million gamble. The Cardinals are not even remotely in a salary crunch situation.

The Cardinals have given hints they are done with Gorman. That is not the case for Liberatore. He’s coming back or is traded, but he won’t be nontendered.

Estimated salary: $4.5 million

Conclusion: Tendered a contract

Masyn Winn

Okay now we’re in comp territory. I found a much better comp than I expected, although slightly worse in just about every way. Anthony Volpe coming into this season had a Gold Glove, was a career 84 wRC+ hitter, and is a very good defender. I don’t know what an arbitration panel uses for defense, but Volpe is actually a much better comp if it uses Baseball Reference. Considering he won a Gold Glove in his rookie season based on Baseball Reference (since his OAA was +1), and he didn’t win a Gold Glove the year he had +14 OAA, that is a possibility. Winn’s defense is much, much closer to Volpe’s if it uses DRS. Winn has 5.2 dWAR, Volpe had 5.3 dWAR entering this season. OAA tells a different story. Volpe was +8 OAA entering this season (thanks to a bad 2025), Winn will be +39.

So to say the least, Volpe could either be an extremely good comp or a very bad comp depending on which defensive metric you want to use. Winn is also a better hitter. Volpe has a career 84 wRC+, Winn is at 87. But that includes his 29 wRC+ debut season, so I feel like he’d be viewed as a clearly better hitter. Volpe is a better base stealer and baserunner, like a lot better, both in terms of stolen bases and BsR so that might soften the gap between the two. Anyway Volpe made $3.48 million in his first arbitration season. I think having two Gold Gloves will matter a lot in this comp, so I think I’ll bump it a million.

Estimated salary: $4.5 million

Conclusion: Tender a contract

Jordan Walker

Another difficult comp, but I don’t need to find a player who had his exact same trajectory, which is good, because that player does not exist near as I can tell. Jo Adell is the closest, but he was farther along in the arbitration process and wasn’t as good, making any comparison pointless. So I had to resort to someone who had a similar season overall. I found Kerry Carpenter, who had 2.9 fWAR and a 120 wRC+. Greene has better (but still below average) defense, but he’s a negative baserunner. This is as close as I’ll get. Greene made $5 million, but his MLB Trade Rumors estimate was $6.6 million. Greene agreed to a deal before the panel. I don’t know if he was poorly advised or Trade Rumors was really off, but I’m going to say he should have held out for more money.

So I’m going to operate with the $6.6 million figure. With that said, Walker should be valued as worse than Greene. For starters, Greene came into the 2026 season as an extremely reliable hitter. Somewhat in hindsight but not completely, but 120 wRC+ more or less appears to be his floor (his worst full season wRC+ is 119 and he has a 138 wRC+ this season). That is not the case with Walker. Those other seasons matter too in his figure.

So ironically, Greene’s $5 million salary for 2026 is actually kind of a reasonable guess for Walker. Walker has the most variance in what his number could be, but $5 million is a good middle ground in my mind.

Estimated Salary: $5 million

Conclusion: Tender a contract

Ivan Herrera

Boy, Herrera is such a specific type of player that I could not find a good comp. There were not catchers who had the playing time that he did. There were good hitting catchers, but they caught 80% of their games. The closest I found was Yanier Diaz. He’s not a great comp, because he was coming off a 92 wRC+ season, and he catches the majority of games he plays, but he is an offensive-oriented catcher who isn’t very good at defense. His is more framing related than stolen base related, although Herrera isn’t really a good framer either. Yanier Diaz made $4.5 million, which happened to be exactly what MLB Trade Rumors projected.

I’ll just go with that. I don’t know how to factor in that Herrera DH’d twice as much as he caught, but we’ll say Diaz catching more games makes up for Herrera’s better offense (at least when Diaz was first eligible for arbitraton)

Estimated Salary: $4.5 million

Conclusion: Tender a contract

Pedro Pages

I found an extremely good comp, far better than I expected if I’m being honest. The only problem is that this was a good comp entering the 2025 season, not the 2026 season. Not a big problem honestly. But this player has leveled up to make it appear to be a bad comp. Nick Fortes entering the 2025 season was essentially Pedro Pages. Worse hitter, his numbers on defense were better though. But he was coming off a 58 wRC+ season, which followed a 52 wRC+ season. In case anybody thinks it’s impossible Pages’ bat ever improves to acceptable range, I present Nick Fortes. Ironically, his defense hasn’t rated very well this year though.

Honestly, this is about as close as I’ll get to a 1:1 comparison, so I’m just going to use Nick Fortes 2025 expected salary of $1.6 million. I don’t see any way Pages is nontendered at this price. You should at the least be able to trade him. Fortes in fact was traded to the Rays. The Marlins got what appears to be a nonprospect, but he’s a 24-year-old outfielder with a 108 wRC+ in AAA right now, so it’s not nothing.

Estimated Salary: $1.6 million

Conclusion: Tender a contract

Kyle Leahy

Oh my god, the Cardinals can’t just have a normal player, can they? I didn’t really find anyone, because you know pitchers don’t have Kyle Leahy’s career trajectory like ever. It’s why I was skeptical about him as a starter. He didn’t debut until he was 26, he was a not great reliever at 27, turned into the bullpen equivalent of an innings eater at 28, and then managed to make 29 starts where he was mostly good but didn’t throw a lot of innings. That comp doesn’t exist.

So I just kind of looked at a bunch of Super Two pitchers and my official guess is $3 million, but it’s just based on vibes. I looked a few pitchers and the assigned numbers seemed more or less random, but it was usually between $2 million and $3.5 million if the pitcher was somewhat close to how Leahy pitched. I doubt this is wildly off, but I really have no clue what his salary will be.

Estimated Salary: $3 million

Conclusion: Tender a contract

Riley O’Brien

And of course we have another weirdo here, essentially a mediocre reliever with a ridiculous amount of saves. Based on his performance, he’d get paid not a lot more than league minimum, but the All-Star appearance and saves will get him something. If a pitcher gets to 38 saves by the time they reach Super Two status, they are normally much better relievers than Riley O’Brien has been. I’m not knocking him, teams just don’t usually give the closer role to relative newcomers who aren’t elite. He did seem elite at first, granted, but it’s just hard to find a comp for a 0.3 fWAR reliever with 38 saves and an All-Star appearance.

Anyway, MLB Trade Rumors projected Mason Miller for $3.4 million, and since that feels like the absolute ceiling a true reliever could ever get in their first year of arbitration as a Super Two player, let’s just say $2 million and call it a day? The saves might end up mattering later, but Super Two relievers just don’t get paid ever. Also I’ll repeat O’Brien might not actually qualify for Super Two.

Estimated Salary: $2 million

Conclusion: Tender a contract

Frankly, I’m curious if and how the Cardinals raise their payroll to a not embarrassing level next year. Before the league minimum guys and the arbitration figures are factored in, the Cardinals have a committed $16 million on the books right now. SIXTEEN MILLION. Almost all of that is for players who will play zero innings for the Cardinals too. $13 million combined for Contreras and Arenado, $500K for buying out Ramon Urias. It’s pretty much just JJ’s salary.

If the Cardinals followed my estimates, they’d have an additional $40.6 million from the arbitration players, assuming O’Brien even qualifies. Good chance one or more of these guys is traded, so it won’t even be that. I know the league minimum guys factor into their overall payroll, but bare minimum, they got to spend like $40 million for this not to be an absolutely embarrassing payroll, no? I could not be asking for less. They spent $183 million in 2024 and I’m wondering how they’re going to get to $100 million.

After last night’s one run loss to the Boston Red Sox, Cleveland finds themselves still looking for the playoff clinch. Boston out hit Cleveland, but Foster Griffin gave one of the best performances he has had in a Cleveland uniform. The lefty pitcher worked his way out of multiple jams, only giving up a RBI single. The bottom of the order and Kwan were the only Cleveland batters to record hits, with José, Adell, and Bazzana reaching on walks. Travis Bazzana also had a couple of good plays defensively.

Around the League

The AL West could very well end the season with every team below .500.

2025 World Series Runner-Ups, the Toronto Blue Jays, have been eliminated from postseason contention.

Weather is forcing MLB to change up the final Cubs series of the season. Chicago will be heading to Boston where impending weather forced MLB to move Sunday’s game 162 to Friday afternoon.

The Royals beat the White Sox!

The Mets beat the Rangers!

The Mariners Josh Naylor’s beat the Astros!

The Guardians’ magic number to clinch a playoff spot is 1.

Today’s Reflections

A lot of people are blasting the Cubs’ fluctuating bullpen performance Tuesday night for the loss, and rightly so.

But I first wanted to point out a problem from that game. For most of the season, when the bottom part of the order is contributing, the top part of it explodes. I wish I wrote it down, and I’m sure someone out there recalls it, but there was a graphic that said that the Cubs’ number nine hitter has the highest or second highest OPS (?) in baseball. I swear I saw something like that. The trouble Tuesday was that not only was the bottom third of the lineup dead — so was the middle third.

PCA, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch combined for a productive 5-for-14 with four walks, two runs scored, two doubles and a stolen base. The bottom six (most of the usual suspects) were a combined 2-for-30 with an RBI. THAT ….. is a large outage, and put the team in the position to have to depend on the bullpen.

First off, Shota Imanaga gave up a run on four hits, no walks and seven strikeouts in five innings pitched. He threw around half of his pitches in the fourth inning, but battled through to keep the Marlins within reach, 1-0, before handing the game over to the bullpen.

In comes Aaron Civale, and on his second pitch, he gave up a solo home run to Kyle Stowers into a roaring wind to make the game 2-0. Civale provided no more damage, and Ryan Rolison, Daniel Palencia and Ryan Zeferjahn kept the game scoreless. A total of 5.1 scoreless innings (following the HR allowed by Civale). All and all, excellent work for the guys Counsell has turned to most often.

But then he had to turn to Caleb Thielbar and Edward Cabrera. Thielbar entered the game in the 11th with one out and coerced a pair of outs to get out of the inning. But NO! Thielbar started the 12th! And he gave up a pair of RBI singles for a 4-2 deficit. Counsell turned to Cabrera, who turned into a bubbling mess — walk, HBP, RBI-walk, RBI-single, and two-RBI single for an 8-2 deficit. Cabrera appeared to be left in there to wear it and save the rest of the pen.

So, yes, it was the bullpen that lost it, but with only one-third of a productive Cubs’ lineup, that lack of offense couldn’t produce more than a minimal amount of runs, causing that high-leverage need from the bullpen.

I appreciate your reading.

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Tuesday Night’s Game Stories:

• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): Cubs’ clinch put on hold after rocky 12-inning loss to Marlins. “The Cubs are on the cusp of clinching their second consecutive trip to the postseason, but the champagne will need to be kept on ice at least one more night.”

• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): The Missing Hits, the Egregious Bunt, Bregman, Hiring Decisions, Stay-Ready Group, and Other Cubs Bullets. “So we didn’t get that particularly thrilling version of a clinch, and now I’m tired as heck for nothing good.”

• Sean Holland (Cubs Insider): Chicago Cubs Score and Recap (9/22/26): Marlins 8, Cubs 2 F/12 – Failure to Execute Leads to Extras Loss. “The home team had countless scoring opportunities through 11 innings, but repeatedly came up short before the bullpen imploded.”

PCA-Mania Continued:

• Meghan Montemurro (Chicago Tribune {$}): ‘That’s my baseball dad’: The Chicago Cubs coach who helped Pete Crow-Armstrong become an MVP-caliber hitter. “Chicago Cubs assistant hitting coach John Mallee has had a front-row seat to Pete Crow-Armstrong’s evolution over the last four years.”
• Mike Musico (MLBDailyDingers): 11 Incredible Stats From Pete Crow-Armstrong’s Impressive 2026 Season. “Honestly… where would this club be without center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s outrageous season?”

Alex Bregman Updates:

• Paul Sullivan (Chicago Tribune {$}): Column: Cubs star Alex Bregman proves his toughness, while Bears QB Caleb Williams shouldn’t have to defend his. “What’s in a word? Alex Bregman’s potential return from facial fractures show his toughness, while Caleb Williams fends off criticism of his reaction to Sunday’s hamstring injury.”
• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Cubs magic number is nearly irrelevant with much bigger playoff concern staring them down. “The Cubs will make the playoffs, but there’s growing concerns.
• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Alex Bregman Tracking Pitches in Cage, Won’t Need IL. “Alex Bregman arrived at Wrigley on Tuesday afternoon looking exactly like a guy who was just two days removed from taking a foul ball to the face.”
• Vinnie Duber (Chicago Sun-Times): Cubs get ‘great news’ on Alex Bregman, who won’t go on injured list, could return before regular season ends. “The Cubs seemed to have dodged a bullet with Bregman, who was hit in the face with a foul ball Sunday, saying he could be back in action before the regular season concludes later this week. “

Assorted Pitching Stories:

• Matthew Trueblood (North Side Baseball): After In-Season Pitch Mix Overhaul, Ryan Rolison is a Whole New Dude. “Over the winter, the Cubs scooped up Ryan Rolison on the waiver wire. This spring, he showed up with an uptick in velocity sufficient to make him a viable big-leaguer. Since the season began, though, he’s gone to a different level, thanks to two major tweaks to his pitch mix.”
• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): The Lost Edward Cabrera Season and the Dud of a Trade. “That was a terrible performance last night from Edward Cabrera.”
• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Cubs are suddenly facing an Edward Cabrera question that extends well beyond the playoffs. “A much bigger problem.”
• Brett Taylor (Bleacher Nation): Justin Steele is “An Option” for the Cubs This Weekend. “There’s a chance (Steele) could finally pitch again in the big leagues..
• N. B. Lindberg (North Side Baseball): Matthew Boyd Has A Clear Path Toward Postseason Relevance With Cubs. “Matthew Boyd is no ace, but he might have to pitch like one for the Cubs to make a deep run in the playoffs.”

Assorted Stories:

• Jordan Campbell (Cubbies Crib): Cubs, Red Sox doubleheader adds another wrinkle to final push for Wild Card seeding. “27 innings of baseball in 48 hours because of course.”
• Zoe Grossman (Chicago Tribune {$}): Re-Grading Every Cubs Trade Deadline Move as The Playoffs Near. “As the playoffs loom, the Chicago Cubs are hoping that their aggressive trade deadline will lead them on a postseason run.”
• Evan Altman (Cubs Insider): Lack of Execution in Tuesday’s Loss Highlights Postseason Fears. “With some notable exceptions, postseason baseball typically involves tighter games that require a higher degree of execution than some Tuesday night affair against a non-contender.”
• Jordan Bastian (MLB.com): How weather in Boston could affect a series vs. Cubs with seeding implications. “The Cubs finish the season this weekend in Boston, where the weather forecast currently projects potentially problematic rainfall, especially on Saturday and Sunday.”
• Michael Cerami (Bleacher Nation): The Cubs Might Actually Have the Best Setup in a Dead-Even NL Wild Card Race. “In any case, there is now a three-way tie for … all three Wild Card spots between the Cubs, Phillies, and Padres with just five games to go.”
• Nick Holden (DaWindyCity): Cubs last week serves as clear postseason warning to National League. “Chicago’s impressive week against the Reds and Braves proved this roster is capable of making noise in October.”

Food For Thought:

Fleetwood Mac were a British and American rock band formed in London in 1967. Primarily a British blues band in their early years, the line-up of singers/guitarists Peter Green, Jeremy Spencer and Danny Kirwan, bassist John McVie, and drummer Mick Fleetwood achieved a UK No. 1 single in 1968 with the instrumental “Albatross“, and had other UK Top 10 hits with “Man of the World“, “Oh Well” (both 1969), and “The Green Manalishi (With the Two Prong Crown)” (1970).

Green, Spencer, and Kirwan left the band in succession during 1970–1972, with McVie’s wife, singer/keyboardist Christine McVie, and American singer/guitarist Bob Welch joining during this period. 1974 saw the band’s relocation to the United States and Welch’s departure. 

Please be reminded that Cub Tracks and Bleed Cubbie Blue do not necessarily endorse the content of articles, podcasts, or videos that are linked to in this series.

The Yankees handled Tampa Bay for the second time in as many days, blowing them out 9-2 behind a pair of Ben Rice home runs as well as a Ryan McMahon grand slam. Of course, there was another game played in between that didn’t go New York’s way, but overall they’ve had a solid series against the Rays as they’ll look to win it outright later tonight as a potential precursor to an ALDS matchup. While the last few games don’t really matter to New York as they’re locked into the top Wild Card seed, they do matter around the rest of the league with both the Central and West still up for grabs and the final Wild Card slots undecided. With that in mind, let’s see what went down on Wednesday to impact the race.

Boston Red Sox (85-73) 1, Cleveland Guardians (82-76) 0

Boston has a spot in the playoffs, but they have to do a little more work to secure the fifth seed and finalize a meeting with the Yankees in the Bronx a few days from now. They moved closer to that goal with a win over Cleveland, though it was a nailbiter when it had no real business being one.

Sonny Gray and Foster Griffin had a close-fought pitchers’ duel in this one, though Griffin was walking a tightrope the entire time. The Sox collected 10 hits against him in six innings but managed to scrape across only a single run in his final frame of work, Andruw Monasterio delivering the RBI single that scored Jarren Duran. Otherwise, Griffin managed to strand two in the first inning, induced a double play to get around an error in the second, left the bases loaded in the third, worked his only clean inning in the fourth, and then stranded two more in the fifth.

Gray, as mentioned, held serve for six innings of his own scattering four hits with no damage done. Tyron Guerrero, Garrett Whitlock, and Aroldis Chapman combined to take the final three innings and continued holding Cleveland’s offense down to secure the 1-0 win with Chapman getting his 35th save of the season.

American League Rock Fight

Chicago White Sox (81-77) 4, Kansas City Royals (68-90) 5: So with the Guardians losing to Boston, could Chicago take advantage and bring the AL Central back to a tie? Unfortunately for them, they gave up a four-spot to Kansas City to open this game, Bryan Hudson getting chased after recording just one out of the inning with three runs already in. A throwing error on top of a single brought home the fourth to cap it off, but the White Sox actually tied the game back up in the third with a four-spot of their own. A pair of hits and a hit-by-pitch loaded the bases for Kyle Teel who singled in a pair before Miguel Vargas and Munetaka Murakami each drove in another run. All was quiet again until the seventh, when Maikel Garcia doubled home Bobby Witt Jr. to score the game-winning run, holding Chicago a game behind Cleveland for first place for one more day.

Houston Astros (78-80) 5, Seattle Mariners (74-80) 6 (10 innings): Well how about out West, where fans have been begging for literally any one of these teams to pull themselves out of the pile and take the division. Houston’s held the biggest lead most recently, but they’ve squandered that advantage and failed to hold onto this one after jumping ahead 4-0 midway through the third by giving three of those runs back immediately in the bottom half. Seattle then tied it in the fifth inning on a Dominic Canzone single, and though there were a few chances no one else scored until extras. There, Houston opened with a Yainer Diaz RBI triple but couldn’t bring home Diaz for the insurance run that proved essential. In the bottom half, a trio of walks forced in the tying run and brought Josh Naylor to the plate, who singled up the middle to walk this one off.

I’m not saying it’s in any way likely, but for context of how absurd this division has been — Seattle has been eliminated from Wild Card contention, but this win keeps them mathematically alive in the AL West race. This division is seriously flirting with having the first winner with a losing record in MLB history, so really who knows how this one finishes out.

Texas Rangers (78-80) 2, New York Mets (73-85) 7: Naturally, the Rangers were unfit to take command as well and blew it late to the Mets. This game was tied at two entering the eighth inning when Marcus Semien hit a go-ahead solo shot, and then the Mets piled on with a Brett Baty grand slam in the top of the ninth for insurance.

Baltimore Orioles (77-81) 4, Toronto Blue Jays (77-81) 2: These two got rained out yesterday requiring a doubleheader, and Baltimore got the better of them in the opening tilt. The O’s got on the board first with two runs in the second on a Jeremiah Jackson RBI single before a double steal attempt brought in another run. Then they extended their lead in the fifth with some pop, Pete Alonso launching his 41st home run of the year to make it 4-0. The Jays clawed back two in the sixth after chasing their old friend Chris Bassitt from the game, but could get no further.

Baltimore Orioles (78-81) 4, Toronto Blue Jays (77-82) 2: No, that’s not a mistake – The O’s went out and swept the doubleheader with the same score. This time Baltimore opened the game with three runs on a two-run Christian Encarnacion-Strand single and RBI double from Colton Cowser. Encarnacion-Strand hit a solo homer in the fourth to give the Orioles their offense, and Toronto was dormant until a ninth inning rally where Davis Schneider hit a two-run shot to cut the deficit in half. The next two Jays went down to end it though, and with the pair of losses Toronto not only swaps places with Baltimore in the standings but the reigning AL champs have officially been eliminated from postseason contention. It’s been a far fall for the Blue Jays this year, and now they’ll have to watch on the couch as the rest of the East battles it out this year. Even the O’s are still mathematically alive in the Wild Card with these wins and a Chicago loss, though there is no margin for error.

The first sign of progress in the Mike Elias era came with a small consequence. The Orioles finally fell out of the top 10 in the 2023 MLB draft. The Orioles selected Enrique Bradfield Jr. with the 17th overall pick that year.

At the time, Bradfield was billed as a plus defender with elite speed. The Vanderbilt product was never expected to develop into a power threat, but he boasted plenty of potential as a table-setter. The question was simple. Would his bat develop to a point that allowed him to utilize his other tools at the Major League level?

It’s been four seasons, and we’re still asking the same question. Bradfield played 15 games at Triple-A in 2025. He entered the 2026 season hoping to make his major league debut, but the call never came.

Bradfield faced some adversity early in the year. He missed seven weeks after a collision in the outfield and a painful swing led to an injury with his left hand. Eventually, he returned and slashed .263/.344/.363 over 88 games with the Tides.

To the surprise of no one, Bradfield made the most impact with his speed. The 24-year-old set a single-season Norfolk record with 36 stolen bases. He tallied 12 doubles, four triples, and four home runs, but several of his 63 runs scored came after a single/walk and an extra base.

The Orioles entered 2026 hoping to compete in the AL East. Even with a light bat, there’s a place for guys like Bradfield on a contender. Many envisioned the prospect using his speed and defense to help in late-game situations down the stretch. With Jorge Mateo and Cedric Mullins long gone, that role appeared to be available.

Unfortunately, the Orioles failed to play like contenders. The American League allowed Baltimore to hang around in the wild card chase, but the team still sold at the trade deadline. Baltimore opted to deploy midseason acquisitions like Christian Franklin and Rece Hinds over Bradfield. Even Heston Kjerstad, another first-rounder under Elias, got some late season action. But Bradfield remained at Triple-A.

With the way the season played out, Bradfield needed to beat down the door to get the call to the bigs. The former first-round pick heated up with a .300/.356/.375 line in the month of June, but his numbers cooled a bit during the hottest months of the year.

Many have wondered if Bradfield would get a late-season cup of coffee, but the league’s unclear future may have spoiled the opportunity. As of now, the MLB owners and players appear incredibly far apart on a new labor agreement. With the CBA set to expire shortly after the World Series, there’s a legitimate chance that games are missed next season.

Minor league baseball could still continue as planned, but players on team’s 40-man roster would not participate. As of now, Bradfield is not on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. Bradfield will eventually need protected from the Rule-5 draft, but the timing of the draft appears dependent on a new CBA.

Only the Orioles know if this actually impacted the way they handled Bradfield in September. Either way, Bradfield should debut in 2027 (if the season takes place).

What type of role can we expect for Bradfield when he finally reaches the show? The speed and defense present a solid floor as a fourth outfielder. He’ll likely need to prove he can hit major league pitching if he hopes to grow into an everyday player.

The Orioles have struggled to get the most out of young players with above average hit tools. Gunnar Henderson has disappointed over the last two seasons. Colton Cowser hit a wall after an impressive rookie campaign, and Jackson Holliday has yet to meet the expectations that come with going 1/1 in the draft. The organization appears to be shaking things up with the departure of Matt Blood and reassignment of Sig Mejdal, but it’s clear that somethings need to change.

One thing we know about the Orioles is that they are going to hide young left-handers against left-handed pitching. Bradfield slashed .272/.355/.374 against righties this year compared to a .231/.340/.330 against southpaws. Cowser, another glove-first center fielder, hit an abysmal .164/.242/.218 against lefties in 2026, so it’s not as if there is a natural platoon spot available.

I’ve always felt that Bradfield passes the eye test when watching him play in the minors. He carries himself like a big fielder, and he would likely represent an immediate improvement over guys like Dylan Beavers in the outfield. He demonstrated his potential with team Panama at the World Baseball Classic back in March.

Leody Taveras and Luis Robert Jr. will probably play somewhere else next season. Beavers, Cowser, and Tyler O’Neill will all return, but it’s unclear whether Franklin, Hinds or Kjerstad will carve out any type of role with the team. Bradfield has yet to answer the questions about his bat, but these things take time. He’ll enter 2027 with the same potential as he did in years past.

Tuesday night’s game against the San Diego Padres was reminiscent of the 2024 playoffs when the Dodgers were forced to employ a bullpen in the NLDS to keep their playoff hopes alive against those same Padres. Both outcomes were the same, with the bullpen shutting down the Friars and getting a big win.

That postseason saw a lot of bullpen usage, and in this one the Dodgers are stacked with starters. Still, the bullpen is always a big part of the postseason.

As Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic points out, 41 days ago manager Dave Roberts was asking the media what choices did he truly have to deploy in the ninth inning of games. Now, he could have several options.

Edwin Diaz, the closer they paid handsomely in the offseason, has not had a great season. He’s been on the IL twice and had an era over 11.00 at one point this summer. But since returning from his latest IL stint, he has faced 11 batters, struck out six and only allowed two to reach base.

“I think it’s one of those things where if you’re one of the 12 pitchers on a postseason roster, you’re in the trust tree,” Roberts said “He’s put himself right smack in that conversation. Given all that he’s had to go through this year to right the ship is a big credit to him.”

Roki Sasaki is also someone who will be in the mix for the ninth inning spot. He has also just returned from his own IL stint, pitching with dermabond on his blister. He allowed two singles, but worked around them for a scoreless inning in Tuesday night’s game. He will appear in Friday night’s game as he continues to work towards a spot in the bullpen that will likely vary as the postseason goes on.

Tanner Scott has been the Dodgers’ most reliable arm out of the bullpen this season, and Roberts has remarked how it would be nice to be able to use Scott in high leverage spots that may not come just in the ninth inning.

“I think if there’s an opportunity, for example, for Tanner to pitch a high-leverage inning in the seventh or the eighth inning, it’s just hard to pass that up if he’s the best option right there,” Roberts said. “You just don’t know where the ninth inning is going to be.”

Roberts also added that the team is sitting in their best position with regards to the bullpen as they have ever been. Evan Phillips and Brock Stewart round out the current options, and the team hopes that Edguardo Henriquez can recover from his back issues to appear in the playoffs. With the starters this team has overall this may be the best pitching staff the Dodgers have ever sent to the playoffs.

We’ve spent much of the last week discussing how the Red Sox won’t be playing much baseball in Boston this weekend thanks to an impending nor’easter. But what if I were to tell you it’s also still possible (however unlikely) that they might not be playing much baseball in New York next week either?

Don’t worry, it’s not weather related this time. Instead, it’s because there’s still a bizarre, long shot scenario teetering at the edge of the table where the Red Sox could fall to the No. 6 seed in the American League.

At first glance, this seems impossible. At 85-73, Boston is four games clear of the White Sox with four to play, and even if the Red Sox were to lose out with the White Sox winning all of their remaining games, Boston also holds the head to head tiebreaker by virtue of their 6-0 record against the South Siders this season.

So, it’s over, right?

Wrong!

There’s still one monkey wrench that can flip the board, and that’s Cleveland’s presence. If the 82-76 Guardians win the rubber game at Fenway Park today and then also end up in a theoretical 85-77 tie with both pairs of Sox at the end of the weekend, all sorts of kooky stuff happens.

First of all, in a three-way tie scenario where one of the teams is not in the same division, the tie to determine that division (in this case the AL Central), takes precedent, and must be broken first. Well, guess what? The White Sox hold the tiebreaker over the Guardians, which means if the Red Sox end up tied with both of them, Chicago takes the division, leaving Boston to face off against Cleveland in the tiebreaker for the final seeding.

Right now, the Red Sox hold that tiebreaker over Cleveland thanks to their 3-2 head to head record. However, if the Guardians win today, that becomes 3-3, and the tiebreaker flips to the Guardians on interdivision record. In other words, Cleveland would go to the No. 5 seed, the Red Sox would land in Texas to play either the Astros or Rangers (whoever wins that wretched AL West division) as the No. 6, and Guardians would get shuffled all the way over to New York to play the Yankees.

On one hand, this is far fetched. But if you break it down piece by piece, it becomes one of those things that gets less and less ridiculous the more you look at it.

Let’s start with the Red Sox. They will be throwing Ranger Suarez today against Cleveland, who will counter with Daniel Espino. With the way Suarez has been throwing the ball the last few times out, that looks like a Boston win at first. But remember, the Sox used both Whitlock and Chapman last night, meaning they might not want to push them too hard and go there again today. Additionally, Suarez’ start is coming exactly five days before Game 1 of the Wild Card series, which means they’ll probably pull him after 75 or 80 pitches like they did with Sonny Gray on Wednesday.

Break it all down, and the Guardians are probably going to get a shot at the weaker part of the Red Sox bullpen they didn’t see today. Throw in Ceddanne Rafaela and Willson Contreras possibly not playing, and all of a sudden this becomes a hard game to predict.

From there, the Red Sox are likely going to play a double header against the Cubs on Friday, trying to get as many games in as possible before the nor’easter arrives. Well, as we’ve discussed all week, the Cubs are going to need those games as they fight for seeding in the NL Wild Card race. They enter play today one game behind the San Diego Padres for the top Wild Card billing. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will be done with the Payton Tolle / Sonny Gray / Ranger Suarez part of the rotation for the regular season and will probably be throwing Patrick Sandoval in one of these games. Is it really that hard to see the Cubs taking both ends of that double header?

Meanwhile, back in Chicago itself, the White Sox would need a sweep at home over the weekend to keep any chance of this crazy scenario alive. Well, guess what? They’re playing the Colorado Rockies. And not just the Colorado Rockies, but the Road Rockies. The worst team to ever do it!

Years ago, when I was over at Purple Row, I wrote about how the game is rigged against the Rockies, and how they face a literal competitive disadvantage because of a Coors Hangover Effect that happens when their hitters travel. On that note, the 2026 Road Rockies have been striaght trash! They’ve already been swept in 28 percent of their series this year, and have lost ten games in a row away from Coors Field. They’re so bad, they haven’t won a road game since August 26th!

The point here is that it’s not that hard to see how they could go into a rowdy atmosphere in Chicago this weekend and get their doors blown off. The White Sox are just one game behind the Guardians for not only the AL Central crown, but also for the No. 2 seed and a bye, so they will almost certainly be throwing all their resources at this race right down to the wire.

Of course, they also have to win their game in Kansas City this afternoon to even get this lunacy off the ground, but if they do that, you don’t have to squint too hard to see how this snowball might start running downhill. Again, all this silliness probably gets quashed in the net 36 hours by one of several candidates, but if we’re still sitting here on Saturday morning and the possibility of all this still alive, things will get really, really weird, really, really quick. And that’s before you throw in the weather with the Red Sox possibility waiting through days of rain to play Game their 162.

Can you imagine if they have to come back on Monday and play one last game against the Cubs and they can literally pick their path with a loss (through Texas and the AL Central winner) instead of having to go through New York and Tampa?

It’s nuts, and it would be nothing short of a bonkers scenario. But this is the 2026 Red Sox, and bonkers has kind of been the theme of the season. We’ve already seen some of the worst Red Sox baseball of all time at Fenway Park early in the season, a historic winning streak to fuel a remarkable turnaround, a team that has a penchant for playing well with plane problems, and now a huge nor’easter threatening to upend the schedule. If there was ever a year where something this daft might play out, wouldn’t it be this one?

Then again, Kansas City might beat the White Sox in a handful of hours and everything you just read will be rendered moot. Man I love wacky baseball!

You can’t say the Dodgers didn’t give the rest of the National League West a chance.

It wasn’t a great chance, certainly. But consider this: The Dodgers spotted their division rivals 157 games before rolling out their varsity lineup.

The Dodgers clinched the division a week earlier. They still could win 100 games.

On Wednesday, with that preferred batting order making its season debut and Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the mound, the Dodgers fielded the 10 men you might well see in Game 1 of the playoffs next week.

Or, as the Dodgers might say, Opening Day.

The Dodgers can say their schedule starts in October, and their goal is for everyone to be healthy and effective then. But that presumption depends upon the supporting cast: the boys of summer that might never play come fall but must play well enough so that the stars can play postseason ball.

“It’s just the depth,” Freddie Freeman said.

Everyone has depth, to some degree.

“We’ve got really good guys that can cover guys when they get hurt,” Freeman said. “You’re going to go through injury bugs over the course of the year. It’s on people to step up. We’ve got some guys that are on the bench that can fill in.

“You have guys that can potentially be playing every day on some other teams.”

In April, Mookie Betts and Tommy Edman were on the injured list. By the time both men had come off the injured list, Teoscar Hernández and Will Smith were on it. By the time Hernández and Smith had returned, Andy Pages was on the injured list, soon to be followed by Shohei Ohtani.

Rookie infielder Alex Freeland has more at-bats than Smith. In roughly the same number of at-bats, backup catcher Dalton Rushing has more home runs and a higher OPS than Smith, the starting catcher.

The Dodgers rank second in the majors in OPS.

Four Dodgers pitchers started at least 20 games, but Yamamoto is the only one projected for the playoff rotation. Emmet Sheehan and All-Star Justin Wrobleski each started more games than Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow, combined.

Eric Lauer, who had won once in six starts for the Toronto Blue Jays, won six times in an eight-start stretch for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers rank fourth in the majors in earned-run average.

“We’ve had more injuries than we would have liked this season, but with that came opportunities for guys that gained a lot of valuable experience,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said.

“Now, going into October, we feel like we have a chance to have a roster as representative of the talent level we have as you can reasonably expect.”

The Dodgers buy depth, right?

“I won’t say anything about that,” Friedman said.

They buy everything else. And what other team would spend a combined $10 million on utilitymen Kiké Hernández and Miguel Rojas?

How about the farm system? The Dodgers traded three prospects for Tarik Skubal, the best player available at the trade deadline, and the league website nonetheless ranks the Dodgers’ farm system as the best in all the land.

So, we’ll ask again: What about buying depth?

“Obviously, we have a very high payroll,” Friedman said, “but I think leaving it at that diminishes the incredible work that our scouts, our baseball ops, our player development, our Latin American scouts — our entire department — and the success they’ve had in their respective areas, and how it’s all come together.

Read more:The Dodgers’ Josue De Paula can hit. Now he’s out to prove he can play defense, too

“I think it really minimizes it in a way that’s not fair to excellent people doing excellent work.”

That excellent work includes 97 wins, so far, from the 53 men to play for the Dodgers this season. On Wednesday, finally, the Dodgers had their A team: Freeman, Edman, Betts and Max Muncy starting in the infield; Teoscar Hernández, Pages and Kyle Tucker in the outfield; Smith at catcher; Yamamoto at pitcher; and Ohtani at designated hitter.

One of the charms of baseball is a cliche: Anything can happen — in a single game or in a short series. The Dodgers lost to the San Diego Padres on Wednesday. The A team is 0-1 this season, with October to go.

Sign up for more Dodgers news with Dodgers Dugout. Delivered at the start of each series.

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Good morning, Camden Chatters.

It’s Sept. 24 and the Orioles are, technically, still alive in the postseason race. Will wonders never cease?

The Orioles’ elimination number remains at 1 after a productive Wednesday in which they swept a doubleheader against the Blue Jays to close out their Camden Yards schedule for 2026. Combined with a White Sox loss in Kansas City, it remain mathematically possible for the Orioles to claim the third wild card spot. All they need is to sweep their final series at Yankee Stadium while the White Sox lose every remaining game against the Royals and Rockies. Oh, and also the Orioles would have to leapfrog whichever of the Rangers and Astros doesn’t win the AL West.

Simple, right? Might as well start printing the playoff tickets now.

OK, OK, I get it. It’s not happening. The O’s will be eliminated, possibly as soon as tonight. But it’s nice that they didn’t have to suffer that ignominious fate in front of their home fans. They played a pair of well-played games — and officially knocked the defending AL champion Blue Jays out of playoff contention — to end their home season on a high note. Check out Mark Brown’s recap of the opener and Tyler Young’s write-up of the nightcap.

The twin bill demonstrated what the 2026 season could have looked like for the Orioles if they’d been clicking all year. The O’s got some effective starting pitching performances from unlikely sources, especially Trey Gibson, who tossed the finest outing of his major league career with 6.2 shutout innings. Their bullpen was solid, with six different relievers delivering scoreless outings. And Pete Alonso did Pete Alonso things, crushing his 41st home run and later leading the entire O’s team onto the field to acknowledge the fans before they left town for the year.

The Orioles ultimately are going to come up short for a litany of reasons that we don’t need to rehash here, but they’ve got a chance to finish the season at .500 if they take all three games from the Yankees this weekend. If not, they can at least try to sustain their recent competent play and hopefully bring some positive momentum into the 2027 season, whenever it might begin. For now, that will have to do.

Links

Holliday to undergo surgery on left wrist; Basallo to concussion IL – MLB.com

The Orioles’ two youngest players saw their disappointing 2026 seasons come to an end. If there’s any hope for a turnaround next season, it’s guys like this who are going to need to take a step forward.

Kyle Goon: The threat of a lockout looms over 2027. But in home finale the Orioles spark positive thinking. – The Baltimore Banner

The possibility of having games wiped out in 2027 is upsetting for so many reasons, not the least of which is: what the heck am I going to do with my time? Are you telling me I’m supposed to get another hobby? Get outta here with that.

Is it too late for the O’s to re-sign Trevor Rogers beyond this season? – Steve Melewski

It’s not too late until Rogers puts pen to paper with another team. Which might not happen for a while, considering the aforementioned lockout.

Would an Orioles general manager under Elias have autonomy? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com

I can venture a guess. The O’s have gone more than a year (and counting) without bothering to fill the GM role, so it sure seems like it’s not something Elias values highly.

Orioles birthdays and history

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Five former Orioles were born on this day, including Rafael Palmeiro (62), one of the most prolific sluggers in O’s (and MLB) history. Palmeiro had two stints with the Birds in his 20-year career, hitting 223 of his 569 major league homers as an Oriole. He would be in the Hall of Fame if not for, well, you know. Happy birthday, Raffy.

Other former Orioles with Sept. 24 birthdays include infielders Travis Ishikawa (43), Jesse Garcia (53), and Kevin Millar (55), and the late outfielder Curt Motton (b. 1940, d. 2010).

On this date in 2000, Orioles ace Mike Mussina pitched a masterpiece in what turned out to be his penultimate start in an O’s uniform. Mussina dominated the Red Sox at Fenway, throwing seven scoreless innings and racking up an eye-popping 15 strikeouts without walking a batter. The Orioles managed to get him a win by scoring a run in the top of the eighth on Gene Kingsale’s sac fly, and closer Ryan Kohlmeier escaped a bases-loaded, no-out jam in the ninth to secure the 1-0 victory.

Random Orioles game of the day

On Sept. 24, 1984, the Orioles won two games for the price of one, sweeping a doubleheader against the Yankees at Memorial Stadium. Mike Boddicker led an easy 8-1 victory in the opener with a complete game, scattering 10 hits — all singles — and allowing only one run. The O’s also had 10 hits but turned them into eight runs, with John Shelby, Gary Roenicke, and Mike Young all homering.

In the nightcap, the Orioles pulled off a thrilling come-from-behind victory, scoring five runs in the bottom of the eighth to erase a 6-2 deficit. An error by Yankees reliever Jay Howell opened the floodgates for a Roenicke RBI single and a Benny Ayala three-run homer. Cal Ripken also homered in the game. Reliever Nate Snell worked a scoreless eighth and ninth for the victory. The doubleheader sweep gave the O’s and Yanks identical 83-73 records, though both had long since been eliminated from the AL East race.