Well, the playoff field is set and the Red Sox are no longer in it. We’ve got White Sox-Guardians and Yankees-Rays in the American League. Braves-Dodgers and Padres-Brewers in the NL.

So the question is: who are your pulling for to win the World Series? A Brewers or Rays triumph would be a delicious entry into an offseason in which the owners are going to spend months lying about competitive balance. But maybe you want to get weird and pull for the White Sox. Maybe you’re a contrarian who thinks a 28th Yankees ring is what John Henry and FSG deserve.

As or me, the choice is easy. The Padres have been one of the most interesting and fun teams in baseball for years now. They are run by a front office that has been steadfastly dedicated to putting a winning team on a field. They are enthusiastically supported by an engaged fanbase in what is now definitively a baseball town. They’ve got Xander Bogaerts, who is still making magic in October. They’ve got Don. Let’s go, Friars.

Talk about the playoffs and whatever else you want in this space and, as always, be good to one another.

Even the players seemed to realize it this time.

Following their 6-2 loss in Game 3 of the Wild Card series in Atlanta last night, Bryce Harper voiced a reality that he, and his teammates, were trying to avoid with one, last, deep playoff run (quotes via MLB.com).

“I’d imagine this team is going to look a lot different next year,” Harper said. “The guys that are leaving this clubhouse. We’ll see.”

Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa and Jose Alvarado are key free agents who are likely to leave. Others could, and should, leave in trades.

It will look different.

One could almost understand why Dave Dombrowski decided to bring back most of a roster that won 95 games, their second straight NL East title, and fell in a very close series to the eventual World Series champions. Many didn’t agree, but there was an argument to be made it was the correct decision.

That argument cannot be made any longer.

The 2026 Phillies got another year older and the team is going backwards. After running out of gas in the 2022 World Series and choking away a return trip by losing Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NLCS at home, this group failed to get past the NLDS in ‘24 and ‘25, and now lost to a superior Atlanta Braves team in this year’s wild card series.

The reason fans are feeling less anger and more resignation following their three-game loss to the Braves is the realization that the roster simply wasn’t good enough.

They won just 88 games this year, a 7-game drop-off, their +15 run differential, only 7th-best in the National League, meant their expected won-loss record was 83-79.

They were lucky to win even 88.

They were 19th in runs scored, 22nd in OPS and dead last in OPS+. Their team-wide Wins Above Replacement (Fangraphs) among their non-pitchers was just 12.0, 26th in MLB. Only the A’s, Reds, Angels and Rockies got less from their non-pitchers. Those teams finished with 64, 75, 62 and 58 wins, respectively. The two teams ahead of them, the Giants and Mets, won 65 and 74 games. The playoff team closest to the Phillies in this metric were the Braves, whose 17.5 non-pitcher fWAR of 17.5 was 21st. They played terrible defense all season long and lacked athleticism on the bases. They also finished tied for 16th in home runs, with only two players (Schwarber and Harper) finishing with 20 or more. No team hit fewer homers in September.

But the bullpen was also a disaster. Dave Dombrowski tried to do things, like signing Brad Keller to a free agent contract as a set-up man, and added Caleb Killian and Brooks Raley at the trade deadline. Two of those guys got hurt and one was an abject failure. Returning relievers Orion Kerkering and Alvarado became utterly unusable by year’s end, and Jonathan Bowlan ran out of gas. Their 4.43 ERA ranked 21st in baseball, consistently a bottom-10 unit all season.

Still, the Phillies tried to paper their way through October masking all these deficiencies and, had they not frittered away the final week of the season, might have pulled off at least a first round upset in Atlanta.

They would not have needed Zack Wheeler to start Game 162 if the lineup hadn’t gone ice cold. Had Wheeler been able to start Game 1, perhaps Jesus Luzardo could have been employed as a reliever, and Jhoan Duran wouldn’t have been asked to come up with a 50-pitch, two-inning hold/save. Perhaps that Austin Riley homer never happens and the Phils sweep the Braves in two games.

Perhaps Aaron Nola isn’t asked to pitch on two days rest in Game 161. No one can be sure how that affected his performance in Game 3 last night, but it couldn’t have helped. And the Luzardo injury itself came at the worst possible time, forcing Don Mattingly into the Nola decision on the final Saturday of the season, jamming up the roster for the wild card round. Luis Arraez’ injury in the final week also didn’t help, although he was not very impactful during his two months with the Phillies anyway.

Dombrowski cannot fool himself into thinking his team is better than it is. He has a remarkably good starting rotation, and that is a great place to begin to rebuild a roster. The floor is already pretty high when you have Wheeler/Luzardo/Cristopher Sanchez/Andrew Painter as your 1-4. But when you’re sporting a bottom-third bullpen and the 5th-worst group of position players in the entire sport, the numbers on the paper match the psychological need to shake things up.

The players realize it, too. The team needs to be different, and it almost doesn’t matter how it happens at this point.

Dave Dombrowski is not a creative general manager. He doesn’t pull rabbits out of his hat. He’s also not great at building farm systems. Both those areas of weakness have shown up as he’s tried to cobble this roster together. This past year, almost every major move he made failed.

He failed to add a new bat to the lineup, with Bo Bichette signing with New York. He re-signed J.T. Realmuto to a three-year, $45 million contract, then watched as he turned into one of the worst hitting catchers in baseball. The Keller signing was a disaster, although not entirely his fault, and none of his trade deadline acquisitions appeared in the wild card round at all.

So what does he do? What can he do?

Everything should be on the table. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Trea Turner all cannot be traded without their permission, and it’s unlikely they would give it. But, Dombrowski should be open to it if an offer comes through and the player is intrigued enough to consider moving on. Should they offer one of their big-time starting pitchers for multiple pieces at multiple positions that might help? Bryson Stott may be the best overall position player on the team, but is inconsistent at the plate and has a career .181 batting average and .515 OPS in 142 career post-season plate appearances. He may be the guy most teams ask about in trade conversations.

Brandon Marsh should be traded. Turner should be moved to center field if he can’t be moved (and he can’t). Justin Crawford looks like a solid bench outfielder, but not a big league, everyday starter. The rest of the outfield is an utter mess.

The MLB lockout that will begin on December 1 will delay all these decisions. It’s likely Alex Cora becomes the new manager before that happens (likely right after the World Series), but in terms of player changes, we’re all going to have to wait. And when the season does officially begin, it’ll be a sprint to get things done, with little time for creativity.

The Phillies will be hard-pressed to spend their way to a solvent roster, unless they move on from players who have proven that, together, they are not good enough to get it done.

The psychology of so many playoff defeats together necessitates drastic change. This was actually true last off-season, but Dombrowski didn’t want to hear it.

At least these Phillies gave us one last thrill in Game 2. And at least they made their ending quick and relatively painless with a non-competitive effort in Game 3. No hand-wringing, no what-ifs, just the hard, cold reality that they simply weren’t good enough.

The “fake it until you make it” masquerade simply couldn’t hold up any longer.

In recorded MLB history, no team has ever followed a streak of postseason performances like this, with the same roster largely intact, and gone on to win a World Series afterwards.

So, changes are coming.

For real, this time.

Two teams in the NL East battled it out over a three-game stretch to see who would be lucky enough to get in the Dodgers’ way. Ultimately, the Atlanta Braves got the best of the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game Wild Card series, and the stage is set for a 2021 NLCS rematch beginning on Saturday in Los Angeles.

The Dodgers have thrice previously experienced a first-round bye, having come away successful only once. Once again, the team has taken this time to prepare for the quest of a third consecutive championship. For some players, such as Miguel Rojas, he has used this time to study for the U.S. citizenship test, as well as reflect on what could be his final postseason run, per Sonja Chen of MLB.com.

“I feel like I wouldn’t play for another team that is not the Dodgers. That’s something that I have control over,” Rojas said. “You have to meet with the organization and know what their plans are for the future and all that, and see if you fit in on the plans. … That’s the reason why I feel like this might be it, and at the same time, I don’t want to be a distraction to the whole group for what we want to accomplish.”

The Dodgers have two options for which player could serve as the team’s left-handed bat off the bench, those being outfielder Josue De Paula and catcher Dalton Rushing. It’s still a toss-up as to whom the Dodgers will pick, but, as Jack Harris of the California Post notes, it’d be a surprise to not see the 21-year-old outfielder’s name on the postseason roster come Saturday.

At this point, though, it would be a surprise if the 21-year-old slugger wasn’t active for the best-of-five series.

“He’s just a special hitter,” manager Dave Roberts said last week. “[His skill set] lines up in the postseason. And no moment is going to be too big for that kid.”

The last time the Dodgers faced against Atlanta in October, their quest for a repeat came to a scratching halt after a six-game series, with the latter laughing their way to a World Series win over the Houston Astros. Once again, the Dodgers have the upper hand on paper, and they are well aware that they have a target on their backs, writes Maddie Lee of the Los Angeles Times.

John Kruk, Phillies announcer overtook John Kruk, national announcer for a moment Thursday night.

After Bryce Harper whiffed on a two-strike offering in the eighth inning of Philadelphia’s 6-2 loss in Game 3, the ball scooted away from catcher Drake Baldwin.

Harper did not immediately realize that he could run, though, and proceeded to bend down to begin taking off his shin guard — and then saw his mistake.

“Run!” Kruk said on the NBC broadcast before Harper began lightly jogging to first base.

Play-by-play man Matt Vasgersian continued: “Ball gets away from Baldwin. Harper didn’t realize it until rather late in the game and is unable to take advantage.”

Harper would be thrown out at first to end the eighth inning, and three outs later the Phillies’ offseason officially began earlier than anyone on the team would have liked.

While the odds of reaching on such a play are low, Yankees rookie Spencer Jones did so Wednesday night against the Red Sox and helped turn Game 2 into a blowout win.

After he fanned against lefty Garrett Crochet, the ball got away from Red Sox catcher Adley Rutschman and Jones ran hard to first base, just beating the throw in a 2-1 game.

The Yankees ultimately scored six runs in the inning to take an 8-1 lead and all but end the Red Sox season, with the opportunistic play looming large.

The Phillies had no such luck and now enter the offseason with plenty of question marks about this group’s ceiling.

Since losing to the Astros in the 2022 World Series, the NL East squad has bowed out in the NLCS, NLDS, NLDS and now the wild-card round in successive years.

The lineup is top-heavy, with Harper and Kyle Schwarber as the anchors, but both will be in their age-34 seasons next year.

Shortstop Trea Turner is already regressing and under contract for seven more seasons, and some of the team’s younger players have not developed as expected.

The team is expected to move on from manager Don Mattingly and replaced him with former Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was fired earlier this year.

Kruk is a color analyst for the team’s NBC Sports Philadelphia broadcasts and is known for his colorful stories after his 10-season career that featured six with the franchise.

October 17, 1996 feels like forever ago, especially to someone like me, who was born in 1990.

“Macarena” was the No. 1 song, while “Independence Day” was the No. 1 movie.

Atlanta was just months removed from hosting the Olympics.

Walt Weiss still had four years left in his major league career, while Matt Olson was two years old and Ronald Acuña Jr. was still over a year away from being born.

That was the last time the Atlanta Braves won a winner-take-all postseason game.

Until Thursday. The Braves exorcised three decades worth of demons, and some particularly pesky recent ones, with their 6-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies in the decisive third game of their NL Wild Card series, snapping the franchise’s six-game losing streak in elimination games.

Fittingly for a night of such catharsis, the Braves left little doubt.

From the moment Michael Harris II delivered a first-inning haymaker in the form of his three-run homer off Aaron Nola, the game never really felt like the Braves were teetering on the precipice of danger.

Sure, there may have been that “here comes the five-run inning for the Phillies” thought that you couldn’t quite get out of your head, but the reality of how it played out on the field was it never felt like that was coming.

After the early blow, the Braves kept the Phillies at arm’s length. The rare Philadelphia hits were never further complicated by additional issues. The Phillies scored their only two runs on an RBI groundout and a sacrifice fly, finishing 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position.

It certainly didn’t hurt the feeling of comfort that the Braves kept adding on. Ozzie Albies’ fourth-inning two-run shot made it 5-0. And after Philadelphia got on the board in the sixth, Matt Olson responded with Atlanta’s third homer of the game.

Not long after that, Chris Sale, the baseball robot that he is — his own words he said this week — took care of the final four outs in typically dominant fashion.

“I can’t say enough about this group,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said postgame. “I’ve been saying it, repeating myself, but I said it on Day 1 of Spring Training that it was going to take more than our talent to get to where we wanted to go. We had to have the right mentality. We had to come together. We had to play for each other, all those things that you can’t quantify.

“They’re game changers, and I always felt all along — and I was saying at the end of Spring Training— I felt like we had the right guys on the bus, man.”

The way in which Thursday’s game played out was cathartic enough. That it happened against the Phillies made it a potentially spiritual experience for Braves Country.

The team that ruined Atlanta’s strong 2022 and 2023 seasons. The team that had been the thorn in the Braves’ side, both in the NL East and in the postseason. The team that seemed dead late in Wednesday’s game before rallying and bringing in what was widely believed to be a better pitching situation entering Game 3

The Braves’ strong performance made sure none of that remotely mattered or was a lingering thought in peoples’ heads this time.

”Definitely feels amazing to win against the Phillies,” Albies admitted.

Mauricio Dubón and Mike Yastrzemski said pregame that the team was loose and there was no tension in the air from Wednesday’s blown chance at a sweep.

How the game played out proved they were right.

“I think in baseball you can’t do anything but try to stay loose. If you put more pressure on yourself, it’s just going to eat you up,” Harris said. “I felt like in the clubhouse today we talked more about fantasy football than baseball. It kept us ready. Once we had our meeting, we kind of locked in and knew what we wanted to do when we came out.”

And with a few monkeys firmly removed from the team’s collective back, the “house money” portion of the Braves’ postseason begins. Beating the Dodgers in the NLDS would be a bonus, but they certainly aren’t a trendy pick to knock off the two-time defending champs.

That being said, if the Braves are able to channel the same focus and clutch moments they delivered in this series finale, maybe they can drag the Dodgers into a contested series.

After all, they did beat them five out of six times in the regular season.

Numbers are helpful. Numbers make things plain when words muddy things up.

What follows are some numbers, basic numbers, that I found before putting some words next to them. They don’t tell the whole story of the 2026 San Francisco Giants — but who wants that? No thanks. Measurable data in small, manageable punches, please.   

0 — Zero, it’s a number. Kind of. A number is a measurable value, and zero is measurable as an absence of value (see, numbers aren’t confusing at all). It’s a number in the same way that nobody is a presence. “Nobody is attacking me! Nobody is attacking me!” Polyphemus screamed from his cave after Odysseus blinded him, and all the other giant cyclopses who rushed to his aid at the sound of his shrieking, turned away grumbling. The ravings of a lunatic. Many of us, at our most dramatic and most sensitive, probably felt like Polyphemus in the last couple weeks of the season, watching a team that was notable in what it lacked. Absence as a presence — that’s the line-up in a nutshell. A bunch of nobodies. It was not the plan.

 Zero players who took the field on Opening Day for the 2026 Giants way back on March 25th took the field as a Giant when the season concluded on September 27th. 

Four were traded – Luis Arraez and Caleb Kilian to the Phillies, Patrick Bailey to the Guardians, Heliot Ramos to the Yankees. Five players — Matt Chapman, Casey Schmitt, Harrison Bader, Rafael Devers, and Keaton Winn — landed on the 60-day IL. Two — Logan Webb and JT Brubaker — are on the 15-day IL. Two more — Jung Hoo Lee and Willy Adames — are on the 10-day IL.

1 — One sweep. One real one. A real one is at least three games. A series sweep really only matters because it is more than two games. One win could be a fluke. Two in a row is like a broken clock being right twice a day. But three, and against the same team, now that’s something with substance.  

There were 52 series (counting the split-up Braves as one) on the 2026 calendar. The Giants swept the 45th one they played in. Fans had to wait until the second week in September, with the Cardinals in town, to bust the brooms out. They flipped the script on us too with a 6-run comeback in the 8th.  

2 — Two players. Christian Koss and Landen Roupp. Woke king Koss and Remember the Covenant! Roupp — diametrically opposed on the political spectrum, and yet tied together to the mast. There on the 26-man roster on March 25th when the boat left port, and (though Koss only had 14 AB before July 1st and was sent to Sacramento for most of May and June) there on September 27th when it washed ashore in pieces. The only survivors of this shipwreck season.

It’s fitting then that Koss was the last player to represent the Giants on a baseball field in 2026. He delivered the final joyful moment, the final disappointment when that joyful moment had the rug pulled out from under it, and the final out of the year.

3 — Three Giants starting pitchers suffered a torn UCL in their throwing arm during the regular season. The injuries actually all came within a month-and-a-half., the pitchers dominoing off the mound and onto the 60-day IL. Trevor McDonald went down in August, Carson Whisenhunt in the middle of September, Blade Tidwell in the last week of the season. Harken back to the halcyon days of Spring Training, when Hayden Birdsong heard the dreaded “pop,” and the writing was on the wall. Three became four. Four Tommy John surgeries levied on a whole generation of Giants’ pitching talent. All 25 year old rotation arms slowly being built up to handle a full season’s workload.

The “rising wave” of pitching depth never broke. Now 2027 will be missed, and it’s hard not to feel like when they return, they’ll be starting over. A hopeful normalcy, if it ever arrives, for these pitchers won’t be until 2029? Maybe? And who does the front office plan to put in their place? Will they still be stubborn about handing out long-term, six-figure contracts to free agent starters? Will the accelerated rise of Yunior Marte, Matt Wilkinson, and Cesar Perdomo, (another) 3 representatives dredged from the depths of the farm system to handle the final chunk of innings at season’s end, represent a new wave? The trio of replacements held their own to a certain extent — but expectations were low. Hanging sliders, demolished by Major League hitters were glossed over, elevated walk rates forgiven, and they were rarely pushed to pitch through the 5th. Though “Tugboat” is a Major League nickname, the jury is still out on the rest of him.

4 — Four wins in a row. The Giants didn’t do it. First time in franchise history its happened — rather, it hasn’t happened. 

They won three in a row seven different times. They were an out from sealing a fourth W in Chicago on June 6th when future-MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong launched one of his MLB-leading 45 home runs off Keaton Winn. They nearly did it against Seattle in mid-July, but a Logan Webb cruise capsized after allowing a game-tying 3-run shot in the 7th. The Giants again lost in 10 innings. 

Maybe that Cubs game was the moment we all should’ve recognized it wasn’t going to happen. It being anything good, or restorative, or sustained. Early June was plenty of time for reality to set in, but we (some of us? Just me?) were still counting on that one-in-a-half-century hot streak to pick the Giants up and lift them out of the funk. It happened to the Red Sox instead, which makes sense because the Red Sox had a bullpen.

5 — Five walk-off wins. On the other side of  the coin is the dozen times the Giants were walked off, but that’s another number further on in this doom count. Focus on the present. Every game has a story. Over a long baseball season, it’s important to find excuses to celebrate. Those silly, over-the-top, on-field fandangos — as contrived as they can be at times — serve a purpose. 

The 2026 Giants did deliver a walk-off for the ages. No fabricated excuse needed to go nuts after Bryce Eldridge’s “ultimate grand slam” capped off an 8-run comeback against the Nationals. Moments before Eldridge delivered his first (of hopefully many) highlight reel clips, Duane Kuiper and Mike Krukow threw another on top of the career pile with the quickly infamous “drop trou and hog out” exchange.

The walk-off homer, aired-out to right, plopped down atop the Willie Mays wall, and everyone went ballistic. A routine out in many parks, but no one cared. It was ridiculous and comedic and unexpected and so needed, for the fans, for the players. A moment of pure, amnesiac bliss. Nothing before mattered. Tomorrow felt so far away. The Giants had won the game when they were expected to lose it. For once, they defied expectations rather than fell short of them.

For some, it was the last enjoyable moment the Giants delivered on the field. A couple days later, the wheels came off the vibe train.

Nothing good lasts. The 2026 Giants taught me that.

The 2026 MLB Postseason continues after four teams were eliminated in the Wild Card Series this week, leaving us with eight teams vying for the World Series. Beginning Saturday, the next round of the postseason, the Division Series, will begin, as the Brewers host the Padres for the first two games in a best-of-five series.

While Paul already dug a bit deeper into the Brewers-Padres series, let’s take a quick look at all four of the matchups.

All times listed in Central Time.

AL Division Series: (1) Tampa Bay Rays vs. (4) New York Yankees

In the American League, both Division Series matchups feature intradivisional matchups. This one, featuring the AL East winner and runner-up, has the two teams who finished with the best records in the AL. The Rays, who finished 98-64, beat the Yankees by 4.5 games, with an MLB-best 55-26 record at home. Tampa had a pretty balanced attack this year, though they finished way better than their run differential would suggest — at +86 runs (sixth best in MLB), they had an expected win-loss of 90-72. The Yankees, meanwhile, are coming off a pair of rompings against their rival Red Sox, winning 9-0 and 9-2 at Yankee Stadium in the AL Wild Card Series. They finished with the fourth-best run differential in baseball, primarily due to their pitching staff, which finished atop the league in several categories.

Schedule

• Game 1 @ Tampa Bay: Saturday, Oct. 3 @ 5:30 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
• Game 2 @ Tampa Bay: Monday, Oct. 5 @ 7:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
• Game 3 @ New York: Wednesday, Oct. 7 @ 7:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
• Game 4* @ New York: Thursday, Oct. 8 @ 7:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
• Game 5* @ Tampa Bay: Saturday, Oct. 10 @ 7:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)

*if necessary

Team Rankings

Rays:

• Offense: .258/.326/.402 (.728 OPS ranks eighth); 169 HRs (22nd); 736 runs (12th); 164 SBs (tied for second)
• Pitching: 3.70 team ERA (seventh); 3.51 starter ERA (third); 3.99 reliever ERA (14th); 1,322 Ks (19th)

Yankees:

• Offense: .235/.311/.409 (.720 OPS ranks tied for 11th); 223 HRs (second); 739 runs (tied for ninth); 153 SBs (sixth)
• Pitching: 3.24 team ERA (first); 3.30 starter ERA (first); 3.15 reliever ERA (second); 1,450 Ks (tied for sixth)

Projected Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: RHP Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs. TBD (NYY)
• Game 2: TBD (TB) vs. RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY)
• Game 3: TBD (TB) vs. TBD (NYY)
• Game 4: TBD (TB) vs. TBD (NYY)
• Game 5: TBD (TB) vs. TBD (NYY)

Prediction

The Yankees looked like a different monster against Boston, even without Aaron Judge. But New York already had to use Cam Schlittler and Max Fried, meaning neither of them will be able to pitch two games in this series (unless Schlittler goes on short rest twice). With that in mind, I think this is about as evenly matched as possible, but the Rays’ home-field advantage makes me give them a slight edge. Rays in five.

AL Division Series: (2) Cleveland Guardians vs. (6) Chicago White Sox

The other intradivisional matchup on this side of the bracket, the Guardians got the No. 2 seed in the AL despite finishing just 85-77 — that wouldn’t have even been good enough to make the playoffs if they were in the NL. The White Sox, who finished right behind them at 84-78 after leading the AL Central for a good chunk of the year, are coming off a two-game sweep of the Astros in the AL Wild Card Series. Neither one of these teams are super flashy, but the Guardians have a good, not great pitching staff and the White Sox have a good, not great offense. We’ll see which one prevails.

Schedule

• Game 1 @ Cleveland: Saturday, Oct. 3 @ 12:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
• Game 2 @ Cleveland: Monday, Oct. 5 @ 4:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
• Game 3 @ Chicago: Wednesday, Oct. 7 @ 3:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
• Game 4* @ Chicago: Thursday, Oct. 8 @ 4:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)
• Game 5* @ Cleveland: Saturday, Oct. 10 @ 4:00 p.m. (TBS & HBO Max)

*if necessary

Team Rankings

Guardians:

• Offense: .239/.316/.380 (.696 OPS ranks 26th); 162 HRs (27th); 678 runs (24th); 146 SBs (seventh)
• Pitching: 3.77 team ERA (eighth); 3.93 starter ERA (ninth); 3.54 reliever ERA (sixth); 1,530 Ks (third)

White Sox:

• Offense: .236/.320/.406 (.726 OPS ranks ninth); 211 HRs (fifth); 776 runs (fifth); 93 SBs (tied for 18th)
• Pitching: 4.12 team ERA (15th); 4.60 starter ERA (26th); 3.70 reliever ERA (eighth); 1,337 Ks (tied for 16th)

Projected Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: LHP Parker Messick (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
• Game 2: RHP Gavin Williams (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
• Game 3: TBD (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
• Game 4: TBD (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)
• Game 5: TBD (CLE) vs. TBD (CWS)

Prediction

As I said above, neither of these teams is flashy, and both squads are solid and one side of the ball and not so solid on the other. I think Cleveland’s combo of Parker Messick and Gavin Williams atop the rotation can get things done, though, as Cleveland wins in four.

NL Division Series: (1) Milwaukee Brewers vs. (4) San Diego Padres

I won’t say too much here just because Paul already took his time to write a lengthy preview for this series. All I’ll add is that I think the home-field advantage will come into play in a big way here — both of these fanbases are hungry for their first World Series title and based on how loud the fans in San Diego were when they played the Cubs this week, I’d expect all five games to be rowdy. This should be a fun one to watch.

Schedule

• Game 1 @ Milwaukee: Saturday, Oct. 3 @ 7:30 p.m. (FS1)
• Game 2 @ Milwaukee: Sunday, Oct. 4 @ 3:00 p.m. (FS1)
• Game 3 @ San Diego: Tuesday, Oct. 6 @ 8:30 p.m. (FS1)
• Game 4* @ San Diego: Wednesday, Oct. 7 @ 9:00 p.m. (FS1)
• Game 5* @ Milwaukee: Friday, Oct. 9 @ 3:30 p.m. (FS1)

*if necessary

Team Rankings

Brewers:

• Offense: .258/.341/.403 (.744 OPS ranks tied for third); 154 HRs (tied for 28th); 832 runs (second); 162 SBs (fifth)
• Pitching: 3.51 team ERA (second); 3.61 starter ERA (fifth); 3.40 reliever ERA (third); 1,544 Ks (second)

Padres:

• Offense: .244/.319/.398 (.717 OPS ranks 18th); 183 HRs (tied for 14th); 722 runs (15th); 164 SBs (tied for second)
• Pitching: 3.99 team ERA (10th); 4.42 starter ERA (21st); 3.53 reliever ERA (fifth); 1,315 Ks (20th)

Projected Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
• Game 2: RHP Logan Henderson (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
• Game 3: TBD (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
• Game 4: TBD (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)
• Game 5: TBD (MIL) vs. TBD (SD)

Prediction

The Brewers have about as balanced of a team as you could ask for, whether out of the bullpen, offensively, or simply with Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson as a great 1-2 punch atop the rotation. Give me Brewers in four.

NL Division Series: (2) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (3) Atlanta Braves

The winners of the NL West and NL East will face off, as the Braves escaped a matchup with the Phillies in the NL Wild Card Series, the only set to go the full three games. As has been the norm for over a decade, the Dodgers are good at everything they do, ranking in the top five in offense and pitching. The one thing they don’t have going for them is that they aren’t getting any younger — outside of 25-year-old Andy Pages in center and 29-year-old Kyle Tucker in right, all of their team leaders are in their 30s. That group includes Shohei Ohtani (32), Will Smith (31), Mookie Betts (34 next week), Freddie Freeman (37), Max Muncy (36), and Teoscar Hernández (34 later this month), among several others. The pitching staff is one of the deepest in baseball, but again, they aren’t all that young, and injuries are always a key consideration. For the Braves, they also have one of the top pitching staffs in baseball, with one of the top starting pitchers in baseball in Chris Sale, who we’ll see at least once in this series. They also have a solid bullpen anchored by Raisel Iglesias and Robert Suarez. While their offense ranks right around the middle of the pack, slightly above league average, they still have several big names in Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Drake Baldwin, and Michael Harris II.

Schedule

• Game 1 @ Los Angeles: Saturday, Oct. 3 @ 3:00 p.m. (FOX & FOX One)
• Game 2 @ Los Angeles: Sunday, Oct. 4 @ 7:00 p.m. (FS1)
• Game 3 @ Atlanta: Tuesday, Oct. 6 @ 5:00 p.m. (FS1)
• Game 4* @ Atlanta: Wednesday, Oct. 7 @ 5:00 p.m. (FS1)
• Game 5* @ Los Angeles: Friday, Oct. 9 @ 7:00 p.m. (FOX & FOX One)

*if necessary

Team Rankings

Dodgers:

• Offense: .257/.338/.424 (.762 OPS ranks second); 204 HRs (tied for seventh); 801 runs (fourth); 72 SBs (28th)
• Pitching: 3.55 team ERA (fourth); 3.43 starter ERA (second); 3.74 reliever ERA (ninth); 1,521 Ks (fourth)

Braves:

• Offense: .246/.309/.409 (.718 OPS ranks tied for 16th); 204 HRs (tied for seventh); 742 runs (eighth); 83 SBs (tied for 23rd)
• Pitching: 3.63 team ERA (fifth); 3.76 starter ERA (sixth); 3.44 reliever ERA (fourth); 1,350 Ks (15th)

Projected Pitching Matchups

• Game 1: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
• Game 2: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
• Game 3: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
• Game 4: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)
• Game 5: TBD (LAD) vs. TBD (ATL)

Prediction

I feel like this postseason is the most vulnerable Los Angeles has been in several years. After completing back-to-back title runs in 2024 and 2025, I get the feeling that the window is at least starting to close. I think the Braves will make this closer than most would believe, but the Dodgers will prevail. Dodgers in five.

With Major League Baseball’s current postseason format, there’s always a chance that the Thursday of Wild Card Series Week is a universal offday. The sample is only so large, but the best-of-three format has not produced many series that have gone the distance — such as it were, as three is hardly much of a distance. Of the 28 Wild Card Series to be played since it was first introduced in 2020 (initially as part of the expanded COVID playoff field and codified in 2022 after one last one-game playoff in 2021), only eight have seen a Game 3 — 28.6 percent.

Indeed, three of the four Wild Card Series were already in the books by the time the sun rose yesterday. We know the Yankees will face the Rays, the Guardians will face the White Sox, and the Brewers will face the Padres. But one remained, and thank the maker for it! October days without any playoff baseball whatsoever are sad days, especially when there’s no personal investment in a short series. We’re already locked into one today, as the Division Series doesn’t begin until tomorrow. But the Phillies’ late rally in Game 2 on Wednesday at Truist Park helped force extras and then a 10th-inning victory to force a Game 3 last night.

That’s right, Joey. Let’s go.

NL Wild Card Series Game 3

Atlanta Braves 6, Philadelphia Phillies 2
(Atlantawins 2-1)

As far as pitching matchups go, this certainly was one. It wasn’t even as outright insulting as the Astros/White Sox “double opener” one, just… OK we’ll just say it: Aaron Nola vs. Ray Kerr. Yeah.

Nola is of course well known for long career in Philly, but hasn’t been his prime form for some time now and was most recently on the mound on two days’ rest to start the Phils’ doomed penultimate game of the season. As for Kerr, I’m literally married to a Braves fan and I have not heard of this gentleman. He’s mostly been a reliever, had Tommy John surgery in 2024, returned to the big-league level this past August, and he’s made just four appearances since Labor Day. But Atlanta manager Walt Weiss gave him a shot to at least cover the start of this do-or-die game, and he was excellent.

Kerr chose Game 3 of NL Wild Card Series to tie his longest outing of the season, recording 10 outs and allowing just one hit.

It was all a terrific beginning to the game for the Braves, desperate to shake off the awful late loss in Game 2. They got on the board quickly against Nola, who issued one-out walks in the first to Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson to bring Michael Harris II to the plate. On a 2-0 pitch, Harris took out his driver and golfed a pitch out for a three-run homer to right:

The ball was literally only a foot and change off the ground, but Harris blasted it anyway.

And honestly… that was the ballgame! The Phillies never scored more than a couple runs, so Harris’ homer held up. It didn’t help them that when Zack Wheeler entered in relief—several wondered if it would’ve made more sense to just start him on three days’ rest for the first time in his career—he fell victim to the long ball as well, with Ozzie Albies smacking a two-run shot to make it 5-0 in the fourth.

In a bit of a curious managerial decision, Braves ace Chris Sale came out of the bullpen to record the final fours in a four-run ballgame. It was a cool moment in theory for him to strike out Bryce Harper and then finish the job in the ninth, but it’ll be interesting to see how this affects their pitching plans in the Division Series, when they’ll have to contend with the mighty Dodgers, too.

Good morning everyone, and happy Friday!

The Wild Card round is over as we head into Division Series weekend. Let’s get you caught up on all of that and more.

MLB Postseason Scores…

• Former Mariners farmhand Ray Kerr turned himself into a household name with a solid outing for the Braves in their 6-2, series-clinching win over the Phillies.

In Mariners news…

• Kate Preusser spoke to several Mariners players to get their insights on what lessons were learned from this disappointing season.
• Over on The Feed, commenter the old wisdom pointed out that Michael Arroyo showed off one elite skill in his short cup of coffee in the majors.

Around the league…

• One Mariners managerial candidate is off the board as the Diamondbacks have reportedly agreed to an extension with skipper Torey Lovullo.
• Astros manager Joe Espada, who has also been thrown around as a potential M’s target, expressed his desire to return to Houston next year.
• Right-hander Jameson Taillon is set to undergo flexor surgery, which will likely cost him the entire 2027 season. Even at age 35, he intends to complete the rehab process and return to the sport.
• Well, that was quick: Rob Manfred said the league is no longer looking at building a ballpark at Grand Teton.
• Willson Contreras joined Sonny Gray in piling on Red Sox management in the aftermath of the team’s sweep at the hands of the Yankees.
• Kiley McDaniel at ESPN spoke to baseball insiders to get predictions on where big fish free agent Tarik Skubal is likely to sign this winter.
• It’s not just a Mariners problem — Davy Andrews at Fangraphs wrote about how the Orioles’ failure to manage and communicate about injuries cost the team wins this year.