Overview:
After a season where they took a step back, I’m pretty confident that the Royals will bounce back in a big way in 2026. I expect Witt to be his normal MVP-caliber self (I actually think he ends up winning MVP this year), with bouncebacks from Pasquantino and Ragans, breakout seasons from Jensen, and for Maikel Garcia to continue his upward swing to become among the best 3rd basemen in MLB. For what it’s worth, if you don’t know Carter Jensen by now, you will quickly become accustomed to hearing his name whenever he inevitably gets called up to the big leagues this season. He’s, in my opinion, the best catching prospect in the league, and will take over the backstop anchored by Salvador Perez for the last decade. I assume Perez will slide to DH with occasional 1B stints mixed in when Pasquantino needs a day off. Back to Jensen. He broke out last year after a disappointing 2023 campaign and, to a lesser degree, a disappointing 2024 campaign. While he posted a sub-.800 OPS at AA in 2025, he put up a whopping 166 wRC+ at AAA over 40+ games. His strikeout rate rose, which is slightly concerning, but his walk rate rose with it. He had an ISO of **.359** at AAA. All of these next stats come courtesy of Thomas Nestico (@TJStats on X, his website is tjstats.ca). He hits the ball hard — constantly — registering a 100th percentile Hard-Hit rate last year at AAA. Barrel rate is in the 95th percentile, he doesn’t chase (87th percentile), and he pulls the ball in the air (72nd percentile). His weaknesses are his passivity (6th percentile swing% at AAA), and contact (28th percentile whiff%).
Offseason Additions/Subtractions:
One of the, funny enough, biggest reasons I’m so high on the Royals this year is because of the ballpark dimension changes they made in the offseason. As you all know, Kauffman Stadium has one of the biggest outfields in the league, which has made itself one of the hardest parks to hit home runs in. Conversely, it’s made it one of the easiest parks to hit doubles & triples in. No longer! According to the Royals’ MLB.com writer Anne Rogers, the Royals are moving in their left- and right-field walls between 9-10 feet. They’re also lowering the height of walls by a little over a foot. Here’s the article.
Outside of Witt, both Pasquantino and Salvador Perez have inevitably suffered from the deep walls at Kauffman, and since neither are particularly fast, this change should help both slug a little more. Conversely, it could hurt their XBH total, but I’m assuming both will hit significantly more homers because of this change. According to Statcast’s expected home runs by park feature, Pasquantino would’ve had the fifth-fewest homers in the league last year if he’d played all his games at Kauffman. The only lower ones are Boston (weird right-field dimensions), Minnesota (high wall in right-field if I had to guess), St. Louis (no idea), San Francisco (no explanation needed). As an extreme pull-hitter, the right-field wall being brought in by any amount will vastly improve his HR total.
Of my lesser impact breakout candidates are the pair of pitchers Kansas City received in the head-scratching Freddy Fermin trade last year: Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. Both project to be back-of-the-rotation arms, but should supplement a very deep rotation. Of course, with Ragans and Bubic at the top of the rotation, everything else is just the cherry on top. I’ve been high on Ragans for a while and, as an objective fan, I hope he stays healthy this year. As a Guardians fan, I hope he puts up a 5 ERA. Circling back to the dimension change subject, I do think Lugo takes a big step back this year. He has vastly overperformed his expected stats each year he’s been in Kansas City, and with his barrel rate getting continuously worse, I’m not sure he makes it through an entire year at MLB with them. But, having Ragans-Bubic-Wacha-Cameron-Bergert is not a bad rotation to fall back on. In fact, there’s a decent chance that’s the best performing rotation in the division. Of course, it helps having an all-world defensive shortstop behind you.
Per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource Tool, this is what the Royals’ lineup should look like:
C – Salvador Perez/Carter Jensen
1B – Vinnie Pasquantino
2B – Jonathan India/Michael Massey
3B – Maikel Garcia
SS – Bobby Witt Jr.
LF – Isaac Collins (acq. from MIL for LHRP Angel Zerpa)
CF – Kyle Isbel/Starling Marte/Lane Thomas
RF – Jac Caglianone
DH – Carter Jensen/Perez
That’s a really, really good lineup, albeit there are some question marks. But what is an AL Central team without question marks? That lineup could very easily have 7 above-average hitters (save for India & Isbel).
Isaac Collins was a decent acquisition for them, and although I don’t think he’ll be as good in 2026 as he was in 2025, he’s a massive improvement from the corner outfielders they trotted out last year. I’m also not as high on Caglianone as some are but, again, an improvement. They’re one of the few teams to consistently have as bad or worse outfield productions than the Guardians, but they’ve addressed that need pretty well recently.
My biggest concern is the bullpen, particularly the closing role. They traded for LHRP Matt Strahm from the Phillies in December, acquired Nick Mears in the Collins-Zerpa trade, and of course still have Lucas Erceg, but seem content with running out Carlos Estevez for the 9th again. Bad idea. Estevez should, under no circumstance, see the 9th this year. They have too much backend depth to risk Estevez blowing games. Either let Erceg run with the closer role, or platoon it between him and Strahm. Both have enough leverage experience to succeed in that role. Estevez has been flat-out awful in Spring Training. His velocity is down about 5 (FIVE!!!) miles per hour across the board. His fastball is down below 89 (EIGHTY-NINE!!!) miles per hour. Not gonna work. He does not have a single pitch above average in Stuff+ in Spring Training (credit @TJStats on X). He’s not controlling any of his pitches (34% zone%), and is giving up loud contact (11th percentile barrel%, 15th hard-hit%). Pair that with an abysmal ground-ball rate, and he is going to get rocked. I do think they probably should have gone after another reliever in free agency. That, particularly, concerns me for them. Because of that, I’m assuming Estevez will get the 9th to start the year based off his track record, and will inevitably be eclipsed by either Erceg or Strahm if he can’t get his velocity back up.
The bullpen is going to be the biggest question mark for this team in 2026, but it’s also the easiest thing to fix. I expect them to be active at the deadline in targeting, well, anyone. I doubt that the reliever market at this year’s deadline will be nearly as robust as last year’s (hard to beat Mason Miller, Jhoan Duran, David Bednar, Kyle Finnegan, Ryan Helsley, Camilo Doval, and Tyler Rogers), but they should still be able to pick someone up.
Prediction:
The Royals win 90+ games and win the division. I assume they trade for multiple relievers at the deadline, and that helps bolster their 2nd half fortunes despite the Tigers (who I assume will come in 2nd) having a very easy schedule to close out the season.
