Category: Sports News

Finally, the Guardians will play an AL Central team for the first time since early April when they played… also the Royals… and took a three-game series.

The Guardians are 18-17, 12th in team wRC+ at 99 (what a difference a weekend can make!), 23rd in baserunning runs above average at -0.9, 10th in Defense at -1.1, ninth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.79 (4.26 FIP), and 18th in bullpen ERA at 4.18 (4.03 FIP).

The Royals are 15-19, 23rd in team wRC+ at 94, 11th in baserunning runs above average at 0.5, 9th in Defense at 0.6, 14th in starting pitcher ERA at 4.01 (4.16 FIP), and 27th in bullpen ERA at 5.03 (4.89 FIP).

On paper, the Guardians look like the better team, but it’s close. The key would seem to be to get into the Royals’ bullpen as early as possible and take advantage of opportunities from that point on.

MATCHUPS:
Game One: Michael Wacha, RHP 3.13 ERA (3.93 FIP) vs. Tanner Bibee 4.08 ERA (4.36 FIP) 7:40PM ET
Game Two: Noah Cameron, LHP 5.40 ERA (4.47 FIP) vs. Gavin Williams 2.70 ERA (3.89 FIP) 7:40PM ET
Game Three: Cole Ragans, LHP 5.29 ERA (6.81 FIP) vs. Joey Cantillo 3.67 ERA (4.43 FIP) 7:40PM ET
Game Four: Seth Lugo, RHP 2.68 ERA (2.64 FIP) vs. Slade Cecconi, RHP, 6.56 ERA (5.84 FIP) 2:10PM ET

The Royals’ offense is led by Kyle Isbel 121 wRC+, Jac Caglianone 109 wRC+, Bobby Witt Jr 108 wRC+, Maikel Garcia 108 wRC+, Carter Jensen 106 wRC+ and Lane Thomas 105 wRC+.

The Guardians’ hitters feature Chase DeLauter 162 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 147 wRC+, Austin Hedges 127 wRC+, David Fry 126 wRC+, Angel Martinez 116 wRC+, Rhys Hoskins 113 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 110 wRC+ and Brayan Rocchio 108 wRC+. It will be a big week for Hoskins and Fry to continue to dominate lefties and for Angel Martinez to get it going from that side, as well.

I would very much appreciate the Guardians finding a way to win at least two of the first three because that Lugo-Cecconi series ender looks like a HORRIBLE matchup. I know Stephen Vogt is paid to say he isn’t worried about Cecconi, but I am not and I am worried. I am confident he can be a good reliever if asked to, and we may be approaching the time where that ask needs to be made. Hopefully, saying all this means this is the series he will turn it around.

Prior to the season, the Rochester Red Wings, the Nats AAA affiliate, got a lot of hype. Their lineup featured the likes of Dylan Crews, Harry Ford, Abimelec Ortiz, Robert Hassell III, and Christian Franklin. Former second round pick Yohandy Morales got lost in the shuffle a bit, but he has been the Red Wings best hitter so far this season.

Morales is a noteworthy prospect in his own right. Back in 2023, he was the Nats second round pick out of the University of Miami, and received a $2.6 million signing bonus. Since becoming a pro, Morales has been solid, but not spectacular. In his two full seasons as a pro, he posted OPS marks of .784 and .769. Entering this season, he was still a notable prospect, but had lost a little bit of shine.

This year he is regaining that stock. Morales is hitting .330 with a .917 OPS in 31 AAA games. The 24 year old has been red hot in his last 18 games, hitting over .400 with 4 home runs. Morales splits his time between third and first base, two positions where the Nats have not been especially productive. With how he is hitting, Morales could get called up before too long.

Yohandy Morales’ best attribute is that he absolutely hits the snot out of the ball. His average exit velocity is just under 92 MPH, which is very good. Morales’ 90th percentile exit velocity, a good measure for raw power, is 108.2 MPH, which ranks in the 95th percentile of AAA hitters. His max exit velocity of 113.1 MPH is also elite. Morales is a hard hit machine, and that allows him to get a lot of hits despite having some swing and miss issues.

Right now, Morales’ BABIP is .426, which is an unsustainable number. However, he is naturally going to be a guy who runs a high batting average on balls in play due to his exit velocities and the fact he hits a lot of ground balls and low liners. His career BABIP in the minors is .379. This allows Morales to hit for average despite striking out over 25% of the time.

However, those ground balls are part of what makes me nervous about Morales’ profile. While he is mashing right now, I wonder how he will translate to the big leagues. Not many MLB hitters have success with a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate and a high chase rate. Even this year, Morales is hitting the ball on the ground 51.4% of the time and striking out 26.1% of the time. 

I have a feeling that there will be a serious learning curve for Morales once he hits the big leagues. Better pitchers will exploit these flaws in his game and not as many of his ground balls will find holes. With how he is performing though, he deserves to get a chance at some point though.

This season Morales has actually spent most of his time at third base, which is interesting. In the previous two seasons, Morales has spent more time at first than third, but that has changed this year. Some of that is likely due to playing with Abimelec Ortiz, but it is still something worth noting. 

With Brady House struggling on both sides of the ball, there could be a path to playing time for Morales if he keeps this up. He is no longer one of the sexy new toys in the Nats system, so he is going to have to bang down the door if he wants to get to the big leagues. That is exactly what he is doing right now.

Right now, he is the 28th ranked prospect in the system, and has slowly been falling down the ranks the last couple years. Between his warts at the plate and his questionable defensive profile, there are some serious questions about Morales’ game.

For him to reach his ceiling, he is going to have to hit the ball in the air more. He hits the ball hard enough to be a big power guy, but those home run totals have never popped due to his batted ball profile. Morales has only hit 27 homers in over 1,000 minor league at bats. 

I still have plenty of unanswered questions about Morales. Can he play third base at a big league level? What will the strikeout numbers look like in the big leagues? Can his Babip stay super high in the MLB and will he tap into his power? However, with the way he is hitting, Yohandy Morales has earned the opportunity to answer some of these questions one way or the other. He deserves a call up if he keeps hitting like this and I am curious to see how he does when he gets the call.

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The 2026 Boston Red Sox nightmare rolls on tonight with a trip to the Detroit Tigers, and Tarik Skubal is primed to add to the misery.

At 13-21, Boston is rock bottom in the AL East, and my Red Sox vs Tigers predictions signal home cooking for Detroit here, behind a dominant Skubal start.

Read on for my free MLB picks for Monday, May 4. 

Who will win Red Sox vs Tigers today: Tigers (-191)

The Detroit Tigers have issues to resolve on the road, but they’ve been a different animal at Comerica Park through the first six weeks of the season. Boasting a 12-3 mark at home, Detroit is understandably favored here against a Boston Red Sox squad that’s lost four of its past five contests.

The Tigers have a big edge in tonight’s pitching matchup, as Tarik Skubal faces fellow lefty Payton Tolle — and the hosts are 3-1 in their ace’s last four starts.

There’s also the benefit of having seen Skubal rip through this Boston lineup last month, racking up 10 strikeouts.

COVERS INTEL: The Red Sox have lost each of Tolle’s last five outings, and he’s leaked 2+ runs inside the first three innings in three of his past four appearances.

Red Sox vs Tigers Over/Under pick: Under 7 (-120)

With the Under hitting in five of Detroit’s last six games, I’m going back to the well again today and picking a low-scoring battle, especially as Boston has scored just eight runs across its past five contests.

Though Tolle is a bit of a wildcard, having logged five career starts, he’s only allowed six hits in his two 2026 outings. Meanwhile, you know what to expect from Skubal, who enters with a 2.70 ERA and should feast on the Red Sox's struggling lineup.

It's also worth noting that the Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these teams.

Red Sox vs Tigers odds

• Moneyline: Red Sox +200 | Tigers -186
• Run line: Red Sox +1.5 (-140) | Tigers -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Red Sox vs Tigers trend

The Red Sox are 7-11 on the road this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Tigers.

How to watch Red Sox vs Tigers and game info

Red Sox vs Tigers latest injuries

Red Sox vs Tigers weather

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Fifteen days ago, the home clubhouse inside Daikin Park was quiet. Trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals, the Astros rallied for three runs in the eighth inning, only to lose in the tenth.

At the time, Houston was 8-15 with a 6.11 team ERA and what felt like an entire roster on the injured list. They were in a free fall.

15 days later later, that free fall appears to be over.

The Astros have gone 6-6 in their last 12 games, nine of which have come on the road. They took two of three in Cleveland before dropping two of three to the Yankees, then rebounded after losing the first two in Baltimore, falling to a season-worst nine games below .500, to win three of their next four, capped by Sunday’s extra-inning victory in Boston.

How has the team stabilized during this 12-game stretch? A pitching staff that once looked depleted, seemingly losing an arm to the injured list every day, has been merely below average as it gets healthier.

Houston’s 5.06 team ERA over the last 12 games ranks 23rd in baseball. That’s not good, and not where they want to be in September, but it is progress. So is the improvement from Mike Burrows and Bryan Abreu, with the latter tossing two scoreless innings on Sunday at Fenway.

The emergence of Spencer Arrighetti, along with three solid outings from Peter Lambert, has also provided a boost.

The Astros’ pitching staff is still far from whole, but it is trending in the right direction. Tatsuya Imai is set to make his second rehab start this week with Triple-A Sugar Land, and Josh Hader could reclaim the closer’s role when he is eligible to return from the injured list on May 24. Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier may also be back sometime in June.

Two years ago, the Astros went 15-14 in May after a 9-19 start in March and April. That set the stage for a 17-8 June and an AL West title.

The key to climbing out of an early-season hole isn’t doing it overnight, it’s stopping the digging in the first place.

It’s too early to tell if the Astros have stopped digging or merely taken a break from doing so, but a six-game stretch against the Dodgers and Reds could provide an answer. 

Baseball history isn’t predictive so much as it’s instructive. Even if batters aren’t hitting at the same rate as decades before, we can still know that hitters who live in the .190-.220 range are probably not very good at that skill. Pitchers with a 5.00 ERA are not good pitchers. And the same can be said about wins and losses, especially the Giants’ few wins and many losses.

If a team doesn’t win very many games, that team isn’t very good. And if a team loses a lot of games early on, the chances of them recovering to have at least a winning season — to say nothing of sneaking into the postseason — are slim. There’s history and then there’s just the game being the game and the Giants have demonstrated here in the early season that they are a bad team that’s probably going to be bad by season’s end.

Now, you might protest with this simple fact: there are still 128 games to go! A lot of baseball left! Anything can happen! Sure, sure. But that adage is the religious devotion angle of fandom. It’s a prayer. The eye test and the win-loss record are actually meaningful in this case because the results have been extreme. But you don’t need to look at advanced metrics or underlying metrics or even triple slash lines. The win-loss record is comprehensive.

In MLB history, 167 teams have started as season 13-21. Just 18 times (10.8%) has that team gone on to have a winning record. Five of those instances have come this century:

• 2016 Astros, 84-78
• 2015 Cleveland, 81-80
• 2013 Dodgers, 92-70 (Division Champs)
• 2007 Blue Jays, 83-79
• 2001 White Sox, 83-79

Here are all the other years when it’s happened: 1993, 1984, 1980, 1964, 1963, 1958, 1950, 1948, 1939, 1925, 1917, 1916, 1899. If you insist on being the optimism, one might be able to lob a “Hey, that just means some team here in the 2020s is due!” And maybe this kooky fan might be on to something. Still, that’s a wish and a prayer and a hope for a team basically winning the lottery.

This is only the third time in franchise history that the Giants have started 13-21. The first time it happened was in 1950, which is one of the years listed above. Those 1950 Giants, led by Eddie Stanky, Al Dark, Hank Thompson, Monte Irvin, Larry Jansen, and Sal Maglie were actually 10-20 through their first 30, then went 76-48 the rest of the way which included 9-,7-,6-, and 5-game winning streaks. That 9-game winning streak was shortly after the All-Star break and was broken up by a single loss that then led into a 6-game winning streak; so, they had a run where they won 15 of 16 on top of the other long winning streaks. The 2026 Giants will need results very similar to that, even if the 1950 team wound up in 3rd place for all that winning. 84-86 wins might be enough to back in as the third Wild Card. By the way, the other Giants team to start 13-21 was the 1984 team, which wound up 66-96.

But 13-21 is just one record tested against history. Is it the case that there are actually more examples of success if we go in either direction by a single loss? You know, could do some Hollywood accounting and say that 13-21 is basically the same thing as 14-20 and find a rich vein of fun historical turnarounds to compare the Giants to instead? Let’s be as desperate as Buster Posey and Zack Minasian and try it.

210 times have teams started 14-20 in MLB history. 40 (19%) have wound up .500 or better. There are a lot of recent examples in this bunch:

• 2024 Diamondbacks. 89-73 (missed Wild Card due to tiebreaker with Atlanta)
• 2023 Reds, 82-80
• 2022 Orioles, 83-79
• 2019 Nationals, 93-69 (World Champions)
• 2016 Yankees, 84-78 (this was the year they were deadline sellers)
• 2014 Pirates, 88-74 (NL Wild Card) — ahem
• 2011 Brewers, 96-66 (Division Champs)
• 2010 White Sox, 88-74 (the Yankees won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2009 Rockies, 92-70 (Wild Card)
• 2007 Rockies, 90-73 (NL Pennant)
• 2006 Angels, 89-73 (the Tigers won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2005 A’s, 88-74 (the Red Sox won 95 games that year to be the AL Wild Card)
• 2002 Astros, 84-78
• 2001 Mets, 82-80

So, it’s this record (and probably better) that has stuck in the stubbornly optimistic fan’s mind all these years. Yes, there is a degree to which the bad can be overcome. In Giants history, four teams have started 14-20, but only one of them wound up with a winning record: the 1990 Giants ended the season 85-77 after a 14-20 start. On the other hand, the 100-loss 1985 team started with this record and were 48-80 the rest of the way.

Hmm, maybe a worse record has some secret history of success hidden away in there aching to be compared to? Let’s take a look at 12-22 teams. That’s happened 110 times. This is the Mets record right now, by the way.

Just 7 times (6.4%) has that terrible start turned into a winning record by season’s end. The 2005 Astros (89-73) won the National League pennant before running into Scott Podsednik and the White Sox in the World Series. The 1989 Blue Jays (89-73) won the AL East, the 2024 Astros (88-73) won the AL West, and the 1974 Pirates (88-74) won the NL Central. The rest: 1996 Red Sox (85-77), 1988 Padres (83-78), and 1986 Reds (86-76).

Just 4 times in 70 instances (5.7%) has a team started 11-23 and ended up with a winning record. The 1914 Boston Braves won the World Series after finishing 94-59. The most recent occurrence was in 1973, when the Cardinals finished 81-81. The 1965 Pirates are the only team to start 10 and 24 and finish with a winning record (90-72). No team lost 25 of their first 34 and came out of the season with more wins than losses.

Okay, but what about that other adage? The one that says you should take the first 40 games to evaluate the team you have, then the next 40 to acquire the players you need and then the next 40 games to make a run and the final 40 games to either prepare for the postseason or evaluate for next year? In that scenario, this would be the deciding week that could determine the fate of the 2026 Giants or at least how they might approach the trade deadline… right? Sure, they could sweep and wind up 19-21 and they’d undeniably be right back in the race, but isn’t 4-2 more realistic as the absolute limit of what’s possible with this team at the moment? In that case, they’re 17-23. What does history say about that?

39 out of 202 (19.3%) instances of 17-23 have been the basis for winning records. The last time it happened was in 2022, when the Mariners were a Wild Card with a 90-72 record. Before that, it was 2015, when the Rangers won the AL West with an 88-74 record. Those 2014 Pirates pop up here again, as do the 2013 Dodgers. The 2011 Dbacks won the NL West at 94-68 after a 17-23 start. The 2007 Rockies had this same record, too.

So, if you’re trying to be one of those “recover from a bad start teams” but you can’t be of the 14-20 variety, here’s the 17-23 pathway. To get there, the Giants will need to win this homestand. Plausible, but at the same time, hard to imagine. And, in the history of the franchise, a bad omen. The Farhan Zaidi era is lousy with 17-23s: 2019 (which ended 77-85), 2023 (80-82), 2024 (79-83). This was their specific brand of underperformance. In team history, only the 1982 team turned it around after a 17-23 start. They wound up 87-75. The three other instances not yet mentioned: 1977 (75-87), 1980 (75-86), and 2008 (72-90).

Look, it’s no fun knowing that the season is “over” at the beginning of May, but that’s where we Giants fans find ourselves here. We’re rooting for a team that is not dissimilar from the teams we’ve seen for around the past decade. Maybe some of the details are different, but the story is still the same. But maybe you find this hard to believe or simply don’t want to believe it. I have not really insisted that you change your mind here. I didn’t even research this post thinking I was going to hunt for data that supported only my position. I had an open mind and, admittedly, a little bit of hope because it’s still early in the season. And yet, there are facts to face: the history of the game tells us the Giants are cooked, washed, chopped, squashed, negated, irrelevant, and/or doomed.

Bummer.