ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 22: Shane McClanahan of the Tampa Bay Rays looks on from the dugout during a game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Tropicana Field on September 22, 2024 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mark Taylor/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We take a break from your regularly scheduled playoff baseball to talk about 2027. Assuming there is no lockout and baseball proceeds as usual, MLB Trade Rumors have dropped their projections for salary arbitration results for players next season, of which the Rays currently have a whopping 17 eligible.
Tampa Bay Rays Player (years.days of service): Salary projection
Shane McClanahan (5.158): $6.6MM
Nick Madrigal (5.137): $1.1MM
Tyler Wells (5.132): $4MM
Cole Sulser (5.096): $1.9MM
Taylor Walls (5.092): $3.5MM (Rays hold a $3.1MM club option)
Griffin Jax (5.091): $5.7MM
Garrett Cleavinger (5.060): $3.7MM
Nick Fortes (4.149): $3.4MM
Bryan Baker (4.049): $4.1MM
Ryan Pepiot (4.005): $3.1MM
Kevin Kelly (3.156): $2.6MM
Richie Palacios (3.156): $2MM
Edwin Uceta (3.150): $1.5MM
Manuel Rodríguez (3.139): $900K
Jonny DeLuca (3.085): $1.7MM
Jesse Scholtens (3.032): $900K
Jonathan Aranda (3.030): $4.1MM
In total, this is just over $50 million in player salaries. It seems likely not all of these Rays players will make it to the 2027 roster, as the Rays could move on from various names through dismissal or trade, but it’s a helpful projection in considering what new ownership might want to do in their second year paying players.
Today’s article is the final of a 3-part series, broadly investigating expected results for a team that can boast the kind of young talent that the Reds have in Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns, who combined for over 10 WAR and made up roughly 1% of the team’s overall payroll. We’ll start by highlighting five teams that both had similar players in value and relative cost to the 2026 Reds.
2019 Chicago White Sox (72-89, finished 3rd in AL Central, didn’t qualify for postseason)
Top Hitter: Yoan Moncada, 5.1 WAR, $575K salary
Top Pitcher: Lucas Giolito, 5.4 WAR, $573K salary
Combined salaries: 1.3% of team payroll of $89.4M
Injuries:
Lost Carlos Rodon (a 2 WAR pitcher the year prior) for all but 34 innings in 2019.
Free agent signing Jon Jay was a way below average outfielder in 2018. He lost roughly 4 months to injuries in 2019.
The team lost a bevy of relievers for large chunks of the season, but none who were significant contributors the year before.
Summary: There are stories out there about the number of injuries the ’19 White Sox had to deal with, but the data tells a story of a team that was only modestly impacted.
Dead Weight:
None that I can find.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Yoan Moncada played a season and a half at second base for the White Sox in 2017-18. 2018 was a full year of him hitting for a 714 OPS and contributing 1.3 WAR. He had been a consensus top 10 prospect across all of MLB for a couple of years before that. Still, I don’t think anyone would have guessed that a 2019 move to third base would have also coincided with a 200 point jump in OPS and a nearly 4 win increase in value.
Similarly, Lucas Giolito had also been an elite prospect who demonstrated a massive leap forward in 2019. The 2018 version of him allowed the most earned runs in MLB and he posted a 69 ERA+. He might have been the worst pitcher in baseball, who then transformed into one of the best, placing 6th in Cy Young Award voting in 2019, with a 134 ERA+ across 176 innings.
Position Player Depth:
The White Sox were very good at catcher (James McCann, 3.6 WAR) and shortstop (Tim Anderson, 4.2 WAR), and serviceable at second base and centerfield.
Conversely, the right field platoon of Jon Jay and Ryan Cordell was easily the worst in the league.
Overall, their position player group was a bottom-third outfit in MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
Pretty bad. Giolito was the breakout star and Ivan Nova was a league average pitcher but the rest of the rotation descended quickly into madness.
Particular shout-out to Dylan Covey who managed an ERA just a shade under 8 but still was able to convince his manager to send him to the mound in 18 different games.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
Very good as a unit, anchored by Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer.
Did the 2019 White Sox fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito?
Not even close. The team was a 62 win embarrassment the year before and Moncada and Giolito came somewhat out of nowhere, despite the heralded prospect status that both had enjoyed. This was a franchise that was very clearly in rebuild mode, and two seasons later, when the White Sox won their division with 93 wins, they still featured Moncada and Giolito, along with wunderkind Luis Robert Jr and mainstays Jose Abreu and Carlos Rodon. Moreover, they increased payroll dramatically as the youngsters matured, adding catcher Yasmani Grandal and starting pitcher Lance Lynn, who both played prominent roles in the division winning season.
***
2000 Milwaukee Brewers (73-89, finished 3rd in NL Central, didn’t qualify for postseason)
Top Hitter: Geoff Jenkins, 4.5 WAR, $282K salary
Top Pitcher: Jeff D’Amico, 5.0 WAR, $175K salary
Combined salaries: 1.3% of team payroll of $35.8M
Injuries:
Jeff D’Amico had a shoulder surgery that cost him all of 1998 and basically all of 1999. He started 2000 on the DL, didn’t appear until May and missed most of June. He was still the team’s best pitcher by far.
Starting pitcher Jamey Wright also began the year on the DL and didn’t make his season debut until late May.
Otherwise, the team appeared to be largely free from significant injuries although the data isn’t very complete/reliable on this.
Summary: Except for the part about their best pitcher only making 23 starts in 2000, the Brewers appeared to have about as good of injury luck as a team can hope for.
Dead Weight:
The Brewers traded for Jamie Navarro before the 2000 season. Navarro was in the final year of a 4 year contract and he was set to make $5M in 2000, or about 14% of the Brewers’ team payroll. He made 5 starts, to the tune of a 14.95 ERA and was released on the final day of April.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
In 1999, 24 year old left fielder Geoff Jenkins played 135 games, hit 313/371/564 for a 135 OPS+ and was valued at 4.6 WAR. In 2000, Jenkins played 135 games, hit 303/360/588 for a 137 OPS+ and was valued at 4.5 WAR. To essentially repeat his ’99 season was easily imaginable.
As for Jeff D’Amico, his injury history has already been touched on. His prior seasons (1996 and 1997) were relatively unremarkable. He finished 7th in the ’96 Rookie of the Year voting with a 5.44 ERA. He was only marginally better in 1997. Then the shoulder injury that stole away two full seasons. There was nothing to suggest a breakout campaign in 2000.
Position Player Depth:
Outside of left field, the Brewers weren’t *good* anywhere, although they were solidly competent/average at C/1B/2B/SS/RF.
They were particularly bad at 3rd base (Jose Hernandez) and centerfield (a rapidly aging Marquis Grissom).
Overall, their position player group was a bottom-third outfit in MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
Pretty bad, outside of D’Amico. You need to give your eyes a minute to adjust to the era of steroid-ball, but the staff had an aggregate ERA of 5.05, which includes D’Amico’s masterful 2.66 ERA season. But…an average ERA, adjusted for era and ballpark was somewhere just north of 4.5, so you could squint and see mediocrity. That said, more than half the team’s starts were taken by pitchers who were replacement level or worse.
This is a Reds’ article, ostensibly, so we’ll shout out Jimmy Haynes, who wowed scouts and fans with an unusual accomplishment: 199 innings, 100 walks, 88 strikeouts. The Reds liked what they saw and would sign him a couple of years later.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
10th ranked bullpen in the majors, even despite trading away closer Bob Wickman at the deadline.
Did the 2000 Brewers fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Geoff Jenkins and Jeff D’Amico?
Let’s start with this. The 1999 Brewers won 74 games. They hadn’t been an above .500 team since 1992. And they clearly couldn’t have seen the breakout season of Jeff D’Amico coming. However, there were a couple of moves that backfired:
They traded their best player (Jeff Cirillo) and an average starting pitcher (Scott Karl) for Jimmy Haynes, Jamey Wright, and Henry Blanco. In doing so, they filled an extra rotation slot but got worse, especially given that three days later they signed Jose Hernandez to man third base. Cirillo had been excellent for three straight years, but was nearing free agency.
They traded Alex Ochoa, a solid hitting 4th outfielder still in his prime, to the Reds for Mark Sweeney, who would be worth 0.0 WAR for the Brewers over the next two years.
What I find notable is that they were budget conscious, and were willing to make difficult decisions (e.g., jettison Cirillo), but didn’t fully commit to a rebuild effort. One can almost hear the echoes of what was whispered around the Reds’ trade deadline “efforts” in 2026: they were willing to move guys but only for “major leaguers”. In sum, they didn’t fail to prepare for D’Amico because no one saw that coming, but there was a general failure to have enough solid players on the roster to take advantage of the surprise breakout. Languishing in no man’s land for years, the Brewers would reach the postseason next in 2008.
***
2008 Chicago White Sox (89-74, finished 1st in AL Central, lost in ALDS to Tampa Bay)
Top Hitter: Carlos Quentin, 5.3 WAR, $400K salary
Top Pitcher: John Danks, 6.4 WAR, $400K salary
Combined salaries: 0.7% of team payroll of $121.2M
Injuries:
3rd baseman Joe Crede lost most of the second half of the season to back injuries. He was having a solid season.
Starting pitcher Jose Contreras tore his Achilles tendon in August, ending what was basically a league average season.
None of the other starting pitchers missed a start all year and the other 8 starting position players all logged more than 500 plate appearances
Summary: The injuries they did suffer were costly, but as a team, this was a season on the fortunate side with respect to missed time.
Dead Weight:
Basically none. I’m tempted to include the fact that the Sox traded for a 38 year old Junior Griffey mid-year, paying several million dollars for the privilege, but he didn’t really hurt the team at all.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Carlos Quentin had been a top 20 prospect in the league, but middling seasons with the Diamondbacks caused them to give up on him, making a trade with the White Sox before the 2008 season. His 5.3 WAR in 2008 represents more than half of his career WAR. 2008 was a surprise to everyone, including Carlos’s mother.
John Danks had been a good prospect, but never cracked the top 50 in the most reputable rankings. In his rookie season of 2007, he struggled across 139 innings to the tune of a 86 ERA+. He did have over 7 K per 9 IP, however, back in a time when that meant something. He had a live lefty arm and was probably seen as projectable by the team, although it would have been folly to expect a 6 WAR season.
Position Player Depth:
Chicago was a good team for reasons almost entirely to do with their pitching. Except for the left field manned by Quentin, the Sox were league average or worse at every single position
That said, they were a league average team hitting wise (102 OPS+), and their collective health meant that they had very few automatic outs in the lineup from day to day. Their worst hitter (Orlando Cabrera) still provided enough value with the glove to be worth 2.6 WAR. There were no stars, but they were solidly professional from top to bottom.
Relative to the rest of the league, they weren’t very good at catcher, first base, or centerfield (Pierzynski, Konerko, Swisher) and the position players ranked in the bottom third of MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
Very good and deep. Danks had the best season, but Mark Buehrle was the established ace and he had a very good year (121 ERA+). Remaining starters Javier Vazquez, Gavin Floyd, and Jose Contreras gave very few games away.
This was the 2nd most valuable rotation in the game.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
Also very good, led by Bobby Jenks and Matt Thornton, each of whom contributed more than 2 WAR to the ledger.
Did the 2008 White Sox fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Carlos Quentin and John Danks?
No. The 2007 White Sox only won 72 games, but they knew who they were. To wit, four-fifths of the starting rotation and the top two bullpen firemen were exactly the same, year over year. However, there were six position regulars who posted a WAR value below 1 in 2007:
Tadahito Iguchi (2B) was traded before the ’07 season ended, making way for the team to sign Cuban Alexei Ramirez.
Juan Uribe (SS) was demoted to a bench role, although he ended up filling in for the injured Joe Crede in the back half of 2008. Before the 2008 season, the White Sox traded pitcher Jon Garland (who was good!) for Orlando Cabrera.
Josh Fields (3B) played out of happenstance, namely Joe Crede’s injury troubles. Crede was healthier to start 2008 and Fields was sent to the minors.
Scott Podsednik (LF) was released, which made room for the Quentin trade that worked out beautifully.
Jerry Owens (CF) was…well, nothing really happened to him, but the White Sox traded for Nick Swisher so they wouldn’t have to play Owens. Swisher had a bad year in 2008.
Jermaine Dye (RF) stuck around and got just as much playing time. This was probably a function of a highly paid aging ballplayer being untradeable. The White Sox got a bit fortunate that he bounced back in 2008.
All told, not every move was a home run, but I find it fascinating that the White Sox were aggressive in looking to correct so many of their 2007 deficiencies. It can be noted, fairly, that the White Sox were a big payroll team at the time, ranking 4th in MLB in both 2007 and 2008, but spending money and addressing gaps are two separate skill sets and the White Sox were good at both. There’s no way that they saw the success of Quentin and Danks coming, at least not to that magnitude, but they were definitely building a foundation with a high enough floor to take advantage of the surprise breakouts. You could say that they made their own luck, to coin a phrase that has never been used before.
***
2001 Houston Astros (93-69, finished 1st in NL Central, lost in NLDS to Atlanta)
Top Hitter: Lance Berkman, 6.5 WAR, $305K salary
Top Pitcher: Wade Miller, 5.3 WAR, $241K salary
Combined salaries: 0.9% of team payroll of $60.4M
Injuries:
None to speak of, as best as I can find.
Dead Weight:
Jose Lima was paid $6.25M (or more than 10% of the Astros payroll) to throw 53 innings of 7.30 ERA baseball at which point the Astros had seen enough, sending Lima (and plenty of cash) to the Tigers for Dave Mlicki.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Lance Berkman had been a top 20 prospect in the league and in his rookie season in 2000, posted a 949 OPS en route to a 6th place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. I’m sure team management was expecting improvement in year 2, both due to increased playing time and familiarity with the level, but probably didn’t pencil in a 4.5 win improvement.
Wade Miller had been a good prospect, but never cracked the top 50 in the most reputable rankings. In his rookie season of 2000, he struggled across 105 innings to the tune of a 97 ERA+. He did have over 7 K per 9 IP, however, back in a time when that meant something. He had a live arm and was probably seen as projectable by the team, although it would have been folly to expect a 5+ WAR season.
Position Player Depth:
Berkman was the breakout star on an offense that was already stacked. Future Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were no longer in their primes but they were still well above average baseball players. Moises Alou was “merely” a future Hall of Very Good candidate and he, too, was in his post-prime-but-still-very-productive phase.
The only spots the team was below average was at catcher, third base, and shortstop (Ausmus, Castilla, Lugo), but only Ausmus could be considered bad.
The overall position player ranking was 7th in MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
The Astros’ rotation was 6th best in the game although they employed a boom-or-bust approach. Youngsters Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt paced the group, with veteran Shane Reynolds also contributing strongly. Those three combined to start roughly half of Houston’s games and the remainder of starts were handled by pitchers who generally ranked as bad or worse.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
The team also had the 6th best bullpen in MLB, led by Billy Wagner and Octavio Dotel.
Did the 2001 Astros fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Lance Berkman and Wade Miller?
They did not. The Astros were division champs from 1997-99 before a down year in 2000. Their offense was essentially locked down from year to year. Bagwell and Biggio were never leaving and their other best players (Alou and Richard Hidalgo) were also brought back. The team’s main moves were to give Berkman the full time LF spot (supplanting the disappointing Daryle Ward) and to jettison pitcher Chris Holt to make room for Roy Oswalt. Oh, and closer Billy Wagner came back healthy from an injury-riddled 2000.
In short, this was a veteran team with a not-too-distant history of success who identified and gave opportunities to young prospects who had already shown quality at the big league level or, in the case of Oswalt, were near the top of the league prospect rankings.
***
2009 Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67, finished 1st in NL West, lost in NLCS to Philadelphia)
Top Hitter: Matt Kemp, 4.9 WAR, $467K salary
Top Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw, 4.7 WAR, $404K salary
Combined salaries: 0.9% of team payroll of $100.4M
Injuries:
Starting pitcher Hiroki Kuroda had an eventful year, managing an 8-7 record around an April oblique injury and an August concussion caused by a line drive to the head.
Otherwise, the team appeared to largely be healthy.
Dead Weight:
In 2006, Jason Schmidt was an all-star. That offseason, the Dodgers signed him to a three-year, $47 million contract for which they received fewer than 45 innings. He was worth roughly 15% of the Dodgers payroll in 2009 and appeared in four forgettable games.
Surprising Breakthrough:
The point of this section is to examine if the two best players on the team were projectable. In other words, was there reasonable expectation during the offseason last year that these two would be as good as they were?
Matt Kemp put up a 3.9 WAR season in 2008 at age 23, before gradually improving to 4.9 WAR in 2009. There was nothing extraordinarily surprising about his 2009 season.
Baseball Prospectus ranked Clayton Kershaw as the #5 prospect in baseball before the 2008 season. That year, as a 20 year old, Kershaw struck out 100 batters in 107 innings and posted a nearly league average ERA. He was already decent at age 20 and I can’t imagine that a 4.7 WAR season in 2009 was shocking to anyone.
Position Player Depth:
It was a really deep team. The only position LA was below average at was first base, and James Loney only barely fell below league average at that spot.
More to the point, all eight every day starters put up at least 2 WAR in 2009
The overall position player ranking was 3rd in MLB.
Starting Pitcher Depth:
The Dodgers’ rotation was 9th best in the game. While Kershaw was the best on the team, there were very few starts given to pitchers who weren’t at least league average. The team was deep with quality arms, bolstered by a couple of pickups at the trade deadline.
Relief Pitcher Depth:
The team had the 7th best bullpen in MLB, with a young trio of Jonathan Broxton, Ramon Troncoso, and Ronald Belisario anchoring the unit.
Did the 2009 Dodgers fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Matt Kemp and Clayton Kershaw?
No, of course not. The Dodgers had been to the postseason in three of the previous five seasons and the addition of Kershaw and the improvement of Kemp was a re-loading of sorts. Additionally, three of the Dodgers’ worst four players in 2008 (Brad Penny, Angel Berroa, Juan Pierre, and Jeff Kent) were not relied on either in practice or theory, as Penny, Berroa, and Kent left in free agency, creating an addition-by-subtraction element to the team’s construction.
******
OK, let’s try to wrap this thing up.
The 2026 Reds got exactly 25% of the required WAR necessary to field a 90 win team from two players who accounted for a combined 1% of the team’s payroll.
They needed 42 WAR to be a “good” team. They achieved 17.6 WAR. Given that WAR replacement level is a 48 win team, we saw the equivalent of a 66 win team on the field this year. That they actually won 75 speaks to a measure of luck and good fortune that I don’t think we’re ready to honestly tackle just yet.
The math, once again, leads to the conclusion. If you need 42 WAR and you get two players contributing 10 WAR off the bat, you need 32 WAR from the remaining 24 roster spots. A bunch of those are back up catchers and bullpen arms and utility infielders that will never contribute much. Said differently, what differentiates the teams who can take advantage of young all-stars and those that can’t are the number of average-to-good players on the team. “How many 2+ WAR players do you have?” is a very useful benchmark.
In 2025, the Reds had 8 such players:
Andrew Abbott fell from 5.4 WAR to 1.4 WAR year over year. This was an extreme regression that centers primarily around a loss of control (his walk rate nearly doubled). The “why” behind this probably requires a deep dive, but this kind of drop off was genuinely surprising.
You could nearly rinse and repeat with Nick Lodolo, dropping from 4.7 WAR to 1.1 WAR, driven by a more-than-doubled walk rate and innings missed due to a recurring blister problem.
Hunter Greene had 4.2 WAR in 2025 and then his arm fell off.
Elly De La Cruz added 2 WAR to his 2025 figure of 3.6.
Brady Singer was a 3 WAR player in 2025 and then sub-replacement in 2026. This time the culprit was a home run rate that nearly doubled.
Tony Santillan contributed 2.9 WAR in 2025. In 2026, he was the kind of pitcher for whom injuries helped limit how bad his stats would be.
TJ Friedl was a 2.4 WAR player in 2025 and then sub-replacement in 2026.
Finally, Nick Martinez contributed 2.2 WAR in 2025 and became a free agent after the season.
One way to look at the above is to lament the bad luck. They brought back seven of the eight quality players from 2025 and all but one got worse. And a lot of them are young! This isn’t a story of older players falling predictably off the cliff.
As it turns out, 8 players at 2+ WAR is exactly the right benchmark. Of this season’s playoff teams, the average number of 2+ WAR players is 8.4.
So, back to the Reds. They had 8, lost one to free agency, but signed Eugenio Suarez, who was over 3 WAR last year. Mission accomplished!
Let’s look at last year’s 8 players through a slightly different lens:
This, in a short little table, basically demonstrates the difference between bWAR and fWAR. fWAR, particularly for pitchers, is calculated on stats that are more projectable. A significant portion of the 2025 Reds success was based on numbers that were highly unlikely to repeat.
Did anyone in the front office see this coming? Who knows. Did the 2026 Reds get unlucky? Yes. Were they designed to fail? Also, yes.
The 2026 Reds had two breakout stars to whom they paid relatively little. They had $140M of additional payroll with which to build around De La Cruz and Burns. They finished in last place, yes. But why?
The team failed to anticipate obvious negative regression. The team had obvious spots of weakness at 2nd base and 3rd base and failed to adequately address either. The team has been bad in the outfield forever and at present do not employ a single outfielder who can be projected to even sniff league average.
The two most relevant teams in the five that I examined earlier are the 2000 Brewers and the 2008 White Sox. The ’00 Brewers were caught in a pattern of trying to not bottom out while not having a discernible plan. Call it “banking on hope”. The ’08 White Sox aggressively addressed their weaknesses from a year before while integrating young talent at the same time. Call it “having a strategy”.
Did the 2026 Reds fail to prepare appropriately for the combination of Elly De La Cruz and Chase Burns?
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JULY 11: The Baltimore Orioles select Eric Booth Jr. seventh overall during the 2026 MLB Draft at Pennsylvania Convention Center on July 11, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Orioles went into the 2026 draft with a clear candidate in mind, it seems: southpaw, speedster, outfielder. At #7, they selected Eric Booth Jr. out of Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, Mississippi—a high schooler, but a very toolsy one. At #46 overall, the Birds then chose Ty Head, a lefty bat with great control of the strike zone. Both Booth and Head got a taste of pro ball this summer, and in a small sample size gave us a little to chew over.
Start with Booth. A big-bodied lefty, Booth makes the rare high schooler selected with the top pick by Mike Elias. Well, considering that the other one was Jackson Holliday, it seems that the O’s don’t mind their high schoolers, but they’d like them to be pedigreed. Baseball runs in the family for Booth Jr., sort of: Eric Booth Sr. turned down the Blue Jays as a 34th-round pick in 1993, then went to Southern Miss and returned punts.
In four seasons at Oak Grove, Booth hit .441/.612/.803. MLB Pipeline had him sixth in the class and its top outfielder. He was committed to Vanderbilt, but the Orioles signed him on July 18 for $7,324,700. Will Robertson, the Orioles’ VP of domestic scouting, raved about Booth’s “huge engine” after the pick.
Booth’s best tool is his speed. Pipeline grades it a 70, and Baseball America calls him an 80-grade runner. He gets from home to first in a little over four seconds. He ran a 6.33-second 60-yard dash at the East Coast Pro showcase, the fastest time there. Pipeline gives him a 55 overall, with 55s on the hit and field tools and 50s for power and arm.
His swing is the part that gives some pause. His setup is unconventional, with his hands away from his body, so his left-handed stroke can look choppy. BA mentions a “deep hand press.” Even so, he makes consistent contact and barrels the ball. BA credits him with “elite hand-eye coordination and bat speed.” He won the home run derby at the 2025 Perfect Game All-American Classic. Pipeline thinks he could hit 20 to 25 homers a year if he smooths out the swing and lifts the ball more often. In center field, he still needs to improve his reads and routes, and the same goes for his basestealing instincts. His arm used to be his biggest weakness, but he has worked it up to average.
The Orioles took Ty Head 46th overall, in the second round, out of NC State. He was one of the better all-around players in the 2024 high school class, and is said to have had a chance to have gone in the third round but for his intentions to join the Wolfpack. Head broke out as a sophomore this spring, going on to hit .291/.460/.556 with 14 homers and 26 steals, with just 23 strikeouts to 57 walks. Baltimore went a little over slot to sign him for $2.43 million.
Head is a little harder to read as a pure prospect. Pipeline gives him 50 for hit, 45 for power, 60 for run, 45 for arm and 60 for field, with a 45 overall. On approach alone, he’s one of the most disciplined hitters in the class. He attacks strikes, rarely chases, and almost never swings and misses, especially against fastballs. But he was a career .283 hitter in college and did little damage in ACC play. Scouts blame his big leg kick, with potential to throw off his timing and produce weak contact. But if he straightens out his timing, he has the pull-side power to become a solid hitter with power, to boot. Defense is the safer part of the profile. Pipeline calls him a “no-doubt center fielder” with plus range, and BA rates him the more polished defender of the two. He has 20-20 upside.
As for the debuts, Booth signed in mid-July and was assigned to the FCL Orioles before playing his first official games at Low-A Delmarva in mid-August. He hit .284/.390/.328 in 18 games (82 PA) there. The on-base skills showed up right away, as he walked 14.6 percent of the time. The power didn’t show up yet. He had three doubles and no homers, and he struck out 23.2 percent of the time. He stole only 3 bases in 5 tries, which shows the baserunning still needs work. That’s about what you’d expect from someone who had just turned 18 and was facing full-season pitching a month after his draft.
Head made more noise, perhaps befitting his greater seasoning in college. He hit .321/.400/.491 with two homers and eight steals in 15 games at Delmarva. That was enough to get him a September promotion to High-A Frederick, where he played six games before the season ended. There he hit .278/.381/.278 and added four more steals. One thing to watch is the strikeouts. He struck out 20 times in about 82 pro plate appearances, which is a far higher rate than his college numbers. That’s very little data, but it’s worth watching for a hitter whose whole case depends on his contact skills.
Mike Elias has been nothing if not consistent in his drafts, prioritizing left handers who can play up-the-middle, especially shortstops and outfielders. Eric Booth Jr. and Ty Head fit right in this mold. Despite their relative youth, both have indicators that their talent is worth relying on. Booth has the higher ceiling; Head could move faster, with a potential ETA by 2029. If both hit their ceilings, however, the Orioles may have finally found a long-term answer in the outfield.
CLEVELAND, OHIO - OCTOBER 15: A general view of signage prior to game three of the American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on October 15, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
The 2026 MLB Playoffs continue today with the league championship series. At least one of them, anyway.
As of the time this is being written, neither of yesterday’s games have concluded, though the Tampa Bay Rays have an early lead over the Cleveland Guardians. Who knows if they will keep it. Well, I guess YOU know because you’re reading this in the future. Either way, that series will continue today.
If there is any goodness left in this world, that will be the only game today because the Los Angeles Dodgers will have been swept by the Milwaukee Brewers last night. But things seldom play out the way we want them to. So that series might continue today as well.
I’m not sure how the ALCS start time would be affected if that is the only game today, so I’ll try to get in and update this in the morning if I get a chance.
In the meantime, this is what is ostensibly on deck for today:
First up, the visiting Rays will play Game 4 of the ALCS against the Guardians at 3:00 p.m. PT. As of the time this is being written, neither team has named a starter for that game. But it will be broadcast on TBS/HBO Max, with national radio coverage available on ESPN Radio.
If necessary (and I hope it’s not), the NLCS will continue in Los Angeles tonight at 6:00 p.m. PT. No starting pitchers named for that one yet either. But it will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1/Fox One, with national radio coverage available on ESPN Radio.
If there are two games today, let’s discuss the ALCS and who we’re rooting for over there. If there is only the one game today, let’s celebrate the Dodgers loss instead! Sure, it’s a little tacky, but we have to find joy where we can in this life.
LOS ANGELES — They couldn’t move at first, almost in a state of shock, then looked around at one another, gasped and finally started making their way to the middle of the field.
It happened.
Really, it happened.
The Milwaukee Brewers, the Lil' Team that Could, pulled off one of the most stunning four-game sweeps in baseball history Thursday, ousting the two-time defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers, and ending their title dynasty at Dodger Stadium with a 6-4 victory.
The Brewers, for the first time in 44 years, are going to the World Series, with Brewers play-by-play announcer Jeff Levering screaming over the air: "The Brewers win the pennant! OH MY God, the Brewers win the pennant! The World Series will go through Wisconsin."
Bauers was quitting baseball just two years ago, returning only to get health insurance coverage for his pregnant wife, and now he was the best player on a field littered with all-stars and future Hall of Famers in Dodgers uniforms.
Then, there was Brewers manager Pat Murphy, a collegiate coach at Arizona State and Notre Dame, who spent eight seasons as Brewers bench coach under Craig Counsell, only to be promoted when Counsell bolted for the Chicago Cubs’ riches. Now the two-time NL manager of the year, is standing on the stage holding the NLCS trophy, grabbing the mic and addressing the frenzied Brewers' fans.
"They have a bunch of Hall of Famers," Murphy said, “but we have a lot of gamers.
"And the gamers won."
Mic drop.
Oh, did they ever, beating the mighty Dodgers in every facet of the game, in front of 49,104 stunned fans at Dodger Stadium, the site where their season abruptly ended last year, a story made in the shadows of Hollywood.
"To do that at Dodger Stadium, against a team that good, that poised, that rooted in tradition, the Hall of Famers they have on the team, the types of people they have on the team," Murphy said, "that’s no easy task.
"But we just did."
Believe it, Milwaukee, for the first time since the days of the Harvey’s Wallbangers, you’re going to the World Series.
"I think they’re drinking," he said, laughing. "They’re drinking just like us. I kid you not. They’re drinking."
Hey, you better believe it, with all of Wisconsin celebrating as if the Green Bay Packers just won the Super Bowl, never believing this could actually be a reality.
Not against the mighty Dodgers, a team with more than twice the Brewers' payroll and enough hardware to fill a Milwaukee brewery.
"Let's be honest," Murphy said, "nobody had us coming in here doing it. Then, the fashion that we did it, got behind and won. You know that thing for me. That's that tells the character of a team."
The Dodgers were up 4-0 in the second inning when Shohei Ohtani hit a three-run homer, and Dodger Stadium was literally shaking, believing that Ohtani found his superman cape again, and would ignite a historic comeback from their three-games-to-none deficit.
"I thought, 'Oh my God, we just woke up a giant,' you know what I mean?" Murphy said. "You don’t wake the giant up, and we woke up the giant. I’m like, wow, we’re going to have our hands full. He’s one of the greatest players that ever lived.
"Most teams would lay down. But these guys wouldn’t be denied."
Not a soul on the Brewers bench panicked, knowing they had come back against the Dodgers all series, so why not again?
"There was never a doubt we were going to come back and win the game," said Bauers, who answered with a two-run double in the fourth inning. "Not a single one. We’ve been doing it all year."
Said DH Christian Yelich: "This place was going crazy, and we’re like, 'Hey, just stay together. Let’s chip away. This is going to be a great story when we win it.'"
While the Dodgers never scored another run the rest of the game, the Brewers got two runs in the fourth, two more in the fifth, a solo homer by Garrett Mitchell in the sixth inning – his second off a left-handed pitcher in two nights after hitting only two off lefties all season – and another solo by No. 9 hitter David Hamilton in the ninth.
Now, with the Brewers on the verge of completing the stunning sweep, the Dodger Stadium security informed Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, GM Matt Arnold and the rest of the front office staff to start making their way down to the field before the start of the ninth inning. Sorry, they weren’t about to jinx anything. They stayed put, watching 22-year-old Jackson Chourio catch the final out.
It was over, and the only sound at Dodger Stadium was the shrieks and celebration of thousands of Brewers’ fans, including one of their most famous alumni, outfielder Ryan Braun, a Brewers Hall of Famer.
"It was incredible to witness," Braun said. "I mean, we went against one of the greatest teams in history, right? Like, that is an incredibly talented team with arguably the best starting rotation ever assembled. They have countless Hall of Famers. Guys that are among the best players that have ever played the game. We have a lot of guys that nobody had probably ever heard of until they started watching our nationally-televised games this series.
"And to sweep that team, I don’t think anybody believed that it was a possibility. I’m thrilled for them, man. I couldn’t be more excited. I couldn’t be honored to have been a Brewer. Watching this team play, just brought me and all the former Brewers so much pride…
"This means so much."
Braun, who spent his entire 14-year career with the Brewers and went to the postseason five times, got to the NLCS twice (2011 and 2018). Milwaukee pushed the Dodgers to Game 7 in the 2018 NLCS, but it was L.A. that went to the World Series, while the Brewers stayed home. Again.
Now, here Braun was, watching history unfold before his eyes.
"I mean, 44 years of hope,," Braun said. "Forty-four years of heartbreak. Forty-four years of believing that we would have our moment. And that moment has arrived."
Former MLB commissioner Bud Selig, whose family owned the Brewers for 35 years before selling the franchise to Attanasio, and will throw out the ceremonial first pitch in Game 1 of the World Series, was ecstatic watching from his home in Milwaukee. Hall of Famer Robin Yount, who will also throw out the first pitch, was elated watching from his home in Phoenix, and will also throw out a Game 1 ceremonial first pitch. There were tens of thousands of Brewers fans celebrating on the streets and at watch parties.
But perhaps the night meant the most to Yelich, the Brewers’ team captain, who joined Milwaukee in 2018 and signed a franchise-record extension in 2020. Now here he was, watching all of his dreams and aspirations spectacularly arrive on one glorious night in his hometown.
He was the one, according to Murphy, who told this young team, filled with 15 players with three or fewer years of service, early this season: "You better start believin’, because you know we’re going to the World Series."
"I mean, Yeli changed the culture here," Bauers said. "This is the better part of 10 years of work for him to really change this organization. I’m sure this is surreal for him."
Yelich, who was being ushered from different TV sets with FOX and ESPN after the game, finally was alone with his family, soaking it all in and celebrating the greatest night of his career.
"We’ve had our season end here on this field a couple of times," Yelich said. "And we just knew coming into spring training that if we wanted to accomplish our ultimate goal, that we were going to have to play this series against this team. It didn’t catch us by surprise that we were here. We just didn’t wake up and find ourselves here. We were ready for it.
"Obviously, the regular season and the postseason are two different things, but we proved to ourselves all year that when we played our version of baseball, and played the way that we were capable of, we were a really hard team to beat and capable of making a deep postseason."
Now, the Brewers are bracing themselves for a glorious welcoming reception when they return to Milwaukee on Friday, with the city already in a frenzy, and the World Series starting a week later.
"I don’t know if you told me as a kid that this would be a thing that happened," Yelich said. "I don’t know if I’d believe you. It’s pretty crazy. It’s just an awesome moment. I haven’t even taken it all of the way in. It’ll be something that probably hits me later.
"But it’s cool to see the crowd, giving people memorable life moments. We understand who we’re playing for, what it means to the city, and know they’re going to be stoked. The atmosphere has just been amazing. We still got a ways to get to the ultimate goal, but man, it’s going to be awesome."
This is a story that will be told for generations in Wisconsin, with Brewers' fans celebrating this team’s accomplishments for years, just like Cubs fans with their 2016 team, Royals fans with their 2015 team, White Sox fans with their 2005 team and Dodgers' fans with this dynasty.
It’s a beautiful rags-to-riches story, but how in the world can you possibly explain it?
"You can’t," Murphy said. "You just can’t. People that are interested will look into it, and see it for themselves.
"Hopefully, they write about it, and get it right."
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 12: Asa Newell #14 of the Atlanta Hawks reacts against the Oklahoma City Thunder during a game at State Farm Arena on October 12, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Asa Newell is coming into Year 2 of his career, and there’s a good chance that he’ll have a bigger role when looking at the frontcourt. In his rookie season, Newell was fighting for minutes with players such as Mouhamed Gueye and Jonathan Kuminga, but with the former currently rehabbing from injury and the latter on a different team, it opens up the door for more playing opportunities.
Newell showed growth throughout his rookie season, and that was thanks to the College Park Skyhawks, where he spent most of his time. When he was with the Hawks, he was usually at the five, where he struggled defensively, but he was able to work on that when he went to the Skyhawks during his stints.
At Media Day, Newell shared the things that he worked on during the summer, and his defense was one of them.
“My defense. I’ve been working on that all summer, trying to move my feet. Also my dribbling, I feel like where I came from, from college into year one, I just been a gym rat. My shooting ability, too. Those three are the main keys,” Newell said.
The Hawks mostly want Newell at the four with a center beside him, but he still has the ability to interchange if he has to. This season specifically, he should be seeing a lot of minutes when Jalen Johnson is off the floor.
The one thing that will help Newell get consistent minutes this season is not only his defense but also his shooting. That was an area where he definitely grew during his rookie season, as he shot 38.7% from the 3-point line and had a nice feel on the perimeter. When the Hawks needed more offense on the floor and Newell was available, Quin Snyder put him in the game over Gueye, who was better defensively.
It’ll be interesting to see how things pan out for Newell when Gueye does return from his rehab, and whether he can lose minutes during that time. That’s why it may be crucial for him to get off to a fast start to the season.
Again, defense will be the No. 1 key for Newell if he wants to see an increase in minutes this season. Throughout the preseason, he’s had his ups and downs on that side of the floor, but he’s been able to maintain some consistency on offense at times.
Coming into his second year, the Hawks definitely want to see improvements from Newell across the board, and he could be on the way to being a solid rotational player for the Hawks this season.
Jimmy Butler cannot wait for the start of the next calendar year.
The Warriors will begin their 2026-2027 NBA season in just a few days, but Butler will not take part in the early portion of the campaign as he recovers from his torn ACL. Butler injured his knee in January, missed the rest of the season, and the Warriors missed the playoffs as a result.
The Warriors were right in the mix until Butler got hurt, but his injury depleted their star power and depth. Speaking to ESPN’s Anthony Slater, Butler said he felt that he let his superstar teammate Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors’ core down by getting hurt, with the team eager to win another ring for Curry before he retires.
“I really felt like I let Steph down,” Butler told Slater. “I let Draymond [Green] down. I let Steve [Kerr] down. Because they took a chance. If you don’t know me and you haven’t been around me, you don’t know what I’m about because of the things that you may read and hear. But they said, ‘F— all of that s—. This motherf—er knows how to win.’ They took a chance, and I felt I let them down.”
Butler’s addition to the team has proven valuable, given how his first season in Golden State went. The Warriors acquired Butler in a trade in February 2025 and went 23-8 the rest of the regular season to sneak into the playoffs.
From there, they beat the No. 2 seed Houston Rockets in the first round, and if it weren’t for Curry injuring his hamstring, the internal belief was that they could have beaten the Minnesota Timberwolves and advanced to the Western Conference finals. Butler’s value is evident, with Kerr echoing that sentiment to Slater.
“He’s such an alpha,” Kerr told Slater. “Everyone feels so confident when he’s on the floor. He’s also a total wiseass. The humor, the dynamic that exists with him in the locker room. There’s just a sense of swagger that you have when Jimmy’s on your team. So, it felt like we lost that instantly.”
Butler, drafted No. 30 overall by the Chicago Bulls in the 2011 NBA Draft, has accomplished a lot in his career, including earning six All-Star selections, five NBA All-Defensive team selections and five All-NBA selections. The only thing he is missing is an NBA title and wants to do everything in his power to help Golden State reach that goal again.
“I just want to help those guys win another [title], man,” Butler told Slater. “And get me one. I felt I let them down. Now, as I’m going through this rehab process, as I’m starting to move and run and jump, I’m like, oh s—, I could still do it. And that’s why I say y’all motherf—ers going to be real shocked if y’all think I’m going to come back and be some bum a– player.”
Butler is 37 years old, though, and while he believes he can still play at a high level when he returns, there may be doubts about whether he will still be an effective player. But he is not letting the doubters affect him, instead staying focused on making up for lost time.
“I don’t give a f—, honestly,” Butler told Slater. “I bet y’all not going to leave me. I bet no team going to be like, ‘Oh, no, don’t guard that guy.’ They’re not going to do that. I bet whenever I step on the floor, they’re going to send more than one body. I bet you’re still going to foul me. So what are we talking about here?”
Kirill Marchenko delivered the kind of night the Maple Leafs envisioned when they acquired him from the Columbus Blue Jackets just before the season. The 26-year-old scored three times, including a highlight-reel between-the-legs power-play goal, in his 300th NHL game. It was not enough.
The Buffalo Sabres erased a 4-2 deficit with two third-period goals and Owen Power finished it 3:14 into overtime, beating Sergei Bobrovsky for a 5-4 Toronto Maple Leafs loss at Scotiabank Arena. Jack Quinn added two goals and two assists. The Leafs (3-3-2) outshot Buffalo 15-8 in the first period and held a two-goal lead late in the second, yet managed only four shots in the third while the Sabres generated 11. Final shot totals were 34-30 in Buffalo’s favour. Bobrovsky stopped 29 of 34; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made 26 saves on 30.
The result left familiar questions about defensive structure, third-period execution, and how the coaching staff can bungle the usage of their No. 1 overall draft pick from the 2026 Draft.
Marchenko’s arrival finally looks the part
Marchenko’s first goal came 13:10 into the opening period on the power play. John Tavares worked the puck from the slot; Marchenko slid it between his own legs and lifted it past Luukkonen. He added a second at 11:13 of the second on a feed from Tavares and completed the hat trick at 16:51 with a one-timer set up by Colton Sissons and Easton Cowan. It was Marchenko’s fifth career hat trick and his first multi-goal game in a Leafs jersey after scoring once in his first seven games following the trade that sent Matthew Knies the other way.
Coach Jim Hiller called the goals “big time” and noted the “dynamism” the Leafs had been waiting on.
“You can’t be that talented and not score,” Hiller said. “So it’s going to come like we saw tonight.”
Marchenko himself described the goals as pure skill and pointed to his long reach. He framed the night as a lesson rather than a celebration.
“You either win, or you have a lesson to learn and get better,” he said. “I think it was a good lesson for us. I think we give up lots of chances, 5-on-5… We still give up a little too much in the third.”
The between-the-legs finish generated the most immediate reaction of the night. As replays of the goal were shown at Scotiabank Arena, the crowd gasped in amazement each time they saw Marchenko put his stick between the legs to score. The sequence also underscored why the organization prioritized him over Knies in the pre-season deal. Early-season shot metrics with Marchenko on the ice had already looked stronger than those without him in several accounts; Thursday provided the finishing touch that had been missing.
Third-period passiveness and the missing shutdown presence
The Leafs led 4-2 with less than four minutes remaining in the second. From roughly the 11-minute mark of the third onward, Hiller said, Buffalo simply started coming and Toronto had no answer.
“We made some mistakes. In those moments, I know it’s hard when you’re on your heels. You just have to be able to have a little poise and somebody to make a play… We just couldn’t make two plays in a row.”
Hiller added that the team has looked more passive in its own zone over the last three or four games than it did earlier in the season. Auston Matthews offered a slightly different view of the process. He thought the Leafs took care of the puck for the most part in the third and that the goals against stemmed from a point shot with traffic and a miscommunication on a three-on-two or three-on-three.
He’s literally in the locker room too, so it’s a big loss for us, definitely,” Marchenko said.
The Leafs dominated the shot share through 40 minutes, including a 66 percent dominance over Buffalo in th second period. The Sabres dominated in the third period with a 78 percent shot share according to NaturalStatTrick.com. Toronto controlled the early share of shots and scoring chances; the third period reversed it. Face-off percentage favoured the Leafs (roughly 56 percent), and they went 1-for-3 on the power play while Buffalo was 0-for-2. Those edges were not enough once Buffalo pushed.
Matthews said the team has to keep playing and that lines will be shuffled, but the concern is obvious. Tavares has been a stabilizing presence and, at times this season, a mentor figure for the younger forwards. His early exit coincided with the period in which Toronto lost its structure.
Tavares started the game on the left wing, a role he had not been slotted in since the 2022-2023 regular season.
McKenna’s limited minutes and the long-term view
Gavin McKenna, the 2026 first-overall pick, played 6:36 and did not see the ice after the midway point of the second period. Hiller said it was his decision. McKenna sat through penalties, the coach did not get him back out before the intermission, and by the third Hiller was unwilling to insert an 18-year-old after such a long layoff.
“I’ll talk to him for sure… I haven’t talked to him yet.”
"That was my decision... I probably should have gotten him out there early in the third."
Jim Hiller addresses Gavin McKenna's ice time in the Maple Leafs' OT loss to the Sabres. pic.twitter.com/sLOJJUeIGx
Hiller described McKenna’s game to that point as “okay” and “fine,” and said he has not seen a pattern of the teenager taking things too personally.
“He’s usually ready to go. There’s been other times I haven’t played him as much… and you know, he’s responded.” Matthews reinforced the message that the group has McKenna’s back and that a night like this can make him hungrier.
The ice-time decision and explantion was puzzling. In the broader context of an 18-year-old getting his first regular NHL minutes, the episode is one data point. Hiller’s stated comfort with McKenna’s maturity and the plan to speak with him directly suggest the organization is treating it as a manageable moment rather than a larger issue.
As a coach, do you talk to him about that?
“Yeah, yeah. I'll talk to him for sure. Yeah, but I haven't talked to him yet.”
This type of mistake so early puts the confidence of the head coach into question. How do you forget about one of your more talented players. When Tavares got hurt, it should have been an easy call. The Leafs looked tired on this night, having just flown home from Utah the day before. Perhaps you could use the young energy.
McKenna, despite being requested, was not made available for comment due to a team decision. His thoughts on this won’t be known until Saturday when the club host the New York Islanders.
What the night revealed
The Leafs have the talent offensively and it’s certainly been their strength. But they have issues on the back end. Outside of Darren Raddysh, the rest of the defense looked tired and slow and couldn’t lock it down when needed. Toronto has offense. Scoring four goals should be enough to win the game. And given McKenna was on the bench to watch most of it, just forgetting about putting the player out there is inexcusable unless he was covering for some other undisclosed reason.
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The Philadelphia Flyers are already off to the worst, and worsening, start in franchise history, stumbling to an 0-6-3 record through their first nine games, and with one more loss to add to the streak, head coach Rick Tocchet will make an unenviable piece of NHL history.
Ten-game losing streaks aren't something Tocchet has never experienced before. Back in the 2017-18 season with the Arizona Coyotes, Tocchet guided the club to an 0-9-1 start through their first 10 games, and they finished the season 29-41-12.
Nine other groups also achieved the feat over the years; Arizona under Andre Tourigny did it again in 2021, and San Jose, under David Quinn, was the most recent team to start a season winless through 10 games, going 0-9-1 back in 2023.
San Jose's reward for a grim 19-54-9 season was Macklin Celebrini in the 2024 draft, but that's besides the point here.
On Saturday night, the Flyers will host the 6-2-0 Ottawa Senators, and with a 10th consecutive loss, Rick Tocchet would become the only coach in NHL history to lose 10 or more games to start a season twice.
The Flyers' previous franchise-long six-game slide to start a season has already been shattered, so the Flyers by extension would be the latest franchise to continue that slide into the double-digits.
Arizona, as mentioned above, has started a season with 10 straight losses twice, as have the Sharks. The only other franchises to have done so in the history of the NHL would be the Atlanta Thrashers, Calgary Flames, Detroit Red Wings, Minnesota North Stars, New York Rangers, and Pittsburgh Pirates.
You'll notice that several of those franchises no longer exist, a testament to how truly unprecedented the Flyers' losing streak is.
Further to that point, a 10-game losing streak has only happened four times since the start of the 2000s, and only three times since 2002.
Any way we slice it, the Flyers and Tocchet are on the verge of cementing themselves in the historically bad section of NHL history, barring a major turnaround that sees them scrap away a win against a vastly superior opponent on Saturday night.
Multiple reports over the last week have indicated that Tocchet's job with the Flyers is safe, but many coaches, over the years, have been dismissed for less, and it's a situation worth monitoring, especially if things continue to get worse before they get better.
DENVER, COLORADO - MARCH 4: Evgeni Malkin #71 of the Pittsburgh Penguins takes a shot on goal against Scott Wedgewood #41 of the Colorado Avalanche in the third period at Ball Arena on March 4, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Who:Pittsburgh Penguins (3-3-1, 7 points, 5th place Metropolitan Division) @ Colorado Avalanche (4-2-1, 9 points, 3rd place Central Division)
When: 9 p.m. eastern
How to Watch: Locally televised game on Sportsnet Pittsburgh and ALT, KTVD, streaming for out of market at ESPN+
Pens’ Path Ahead: The road trip picks up the pace with a game tomorrow night in Vegas, followed by a trip to Utah for Monday night. After that, the Pens return home for the next three games (starting with a visit by Florida to Pittsburgh on Thursday Oct 22).
Opponent Track: This is the third game in four days for the Avs, after a back-to-back with Dallas. Colorado won the first leg of that Tuesday night in Dallas, then fell in a shootout at home. After today comes a two-day break and a trip east to play in Philadelphia on Monday.
Season Series: This is the first of two matchups, the two teams will meet in Pittsburgh on January 12th.
Hidden Stat: Pittsburgh has points in four of its last six trips to Ball Arena (3-2-1), per Pens PR.
Getting to know the Avalanche
Projected lines
FORWARDS
Artturi Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Martin Necas
Gabriel Landeskog – Brock Nelson – Nazem Kadri
Jaden Schwartz – Fedor Svechkov – T.J Hughes
Parker Kelly – Gavin Brindley
DEFENSEMEN
Devon Toews / Cale Makar
Brett Kulak / Sam Malinski
Josh Manson / Brent Burns
Noah Juulsen
Goalies: Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood
Potential scratches: Nicolas Roy (lower body injury), Zachary L’Hereux (upper body injury)
Injured Reserve: Logan O’Connor
The Avalanche played an 11 forward/7 defense lineup last game due to a pair of injuries up front. They do have the cap and roster space to call-up an AHL forward if they want or need to if those injuries linger.
Interesting to see the changes made by Colorado in recent years. They’ve lost a few pieces, most notably Mikko Rantanen. However, as a win-now type of team, they’ve loaded up to grab Nelson and Necas, re-acquire Kadri, fill out the depth with Schwartz, Kulak, Burns and Roy.
Overall, the team only has eight players remaining from their 2022 Cup team (MacKinnon, Kadri, Makar, Toews Landeskog, O’Connor, Lehkonen, Manson). A lot of those players are the foundation to build a contender on, now the question becomes whether they’ve built up enough around it to win again in the primes of MacKinnon+Makar. To draw a Penguin parallel, this period for Colorado now isn’t dissimilar to the 2010-15 era for Crosby and the Penguins where they failed to replicate championship aspirations following the first title. Is there a second championship act still to go for this core?
One potentially sore spot for that: the Pens’ late glow-up was enhanced by a wave of rising young players (Murray, Guentzel, Rust, Dumoulin, Maatta, Sheary). Colorado doesn’t have that in their organization, only three U-25 players have dressed in the NHL so far this season, and none in particularly key roles. The Avs have deviated and gone the other direction by going very veteran and adding older players ala Nelson, Kadri and Burns, and spending big future assets in some of those cases to get them. Doesn’t mean it’s right or wrong but a curious way to hold up this Avalanche team to where Pittsburgh was at a similar time in the contending lifecycle.
MacKinnon has been a force this season to average almost two points per game, while also dropping the gloves for two fights. MacKinnon’s never won an Art Ross scoring championship (such is the curse of the age of McDavid) but did take the Rocket Richard trophy last year with an NHL-high 53 goals.
Makar missed a game earlier in the week due to the birth of his twins. New dad strength hasn’t been instant, he was held without a point in his return on Wednesday against the Stars.
Until watching a game last week, I completely forgot that the Avs added Schwartz over the summer as a free agent. The 34-year old had been mired in Seattle since that franchise’s inception in 2021, the 2019 Cup winner with St. Louis could be an important depth player for Colorado.
Colorado’s power play is 16th this season, hitting at an even 20.0%. The Avalanche only have three 5v4 goals (and two more scored in 5v3 situations), and they’ve already given up three goals to shorthanded teams. That could be an X-factor for the Pens, where they’ve only given up two goals this season while shorthanded and scored one of their own while down a player.
Even strength has been the area where the Avs have done a ton of damage, already scoring 26 5v5 goals in just seven games. (By comparison, the Pens rank eighth in this category with 18).
Key to the game: Fast start
Colorado, as expected, looks very strong early in the season. Their 31 goals scored in seven games is the second highest-scoring team per game behind Edmonton. Their 58.8% expected goal share at 5v5 is among the highest in the NHL. They are a strong team that can be dominant.
The Penguins only need to look back about seven months to see how to handle all that. The Pens beat Colorado 7-2 in Denver on March 16th in their last trip to the Mile High City. A key: Pittsburgh scored four goals in the first 14 minutes of the game. Before the Avs knew what hit them, the game was out of reach.
It might be a little much to ask for history to repeat itself there, but the lesson to take is trying to stay ahead of the game. Falling behind would be a make an uphill climb even steeper. That’s why a lot of attention will be on Pittsburgh’s top two lines tonight, they need to make an impact and set the tone in this game. If they can do that starting early in the game, you’d have to like the Pens’ chances. If not, it could be a long night.
And now for the Pens
Projected lines
FORWARDS
Rickard Rakell – Sidney Crosby – Bryan Rust
Egor Chinakhov – Tommy Novak – Evgeni Malkin
Andrei Kuzmenko – Ben Kindel – Nick Robertson
Connor Dewar – Blake Lizotte – Elmer Soderblom
DEFENSEMEN
Declan Carlile / Erik Karlsson
Sam Girard / Kaeden Korczak
Spencer Stastney / Kris Letang
Goalies: Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov
Potential Scratches: Hendrix Lapierre, Ville Koivunen and Ryan Johnson
IR: Ryan Graves, Justin Brazeau, Trevor van Riemsdyk
There were some line changes yesterday in practice, Nick Robertson worked his way up to play on Kindel’s line and it looks like Soderblom will be playing for just the third time this season. Koivunen is the odd man out and it could be a second game as a healthy scratch in a row for Lapierre.
The Pens have a goalie decision on their hands with tonight’s game as well as tomorrow night’s tilt in Las Vegas. You’d figure one goalie will play in each night and against a tough team no matter what, the timing of using them has not yet been disclosed.
High-energy practice
The Penguins weren’t pleased after their 5-3 loss to Chicago. They got some work in yesterday to prep for the weekend.
The Penguins did some small-area competition to end a productive practice session.
"Coming off a day off after a game that we're not thrilled with, I fully expected the energy level to be high, and they came in and delivered that," Dan Muse said. pic.twitter.com/DkXPD0lSPX
The Penguins have scored 12 goals in the second period through seven games. Only the Colorado Avalanche, Carolina Hurricanes and Utah Mammoth have more goals in the middle frame so far this season:
Second Period Goals
Team GP 2nd PD GF
Colorado 6 16
Carolina 8 14
Utah 7 13
Pittsburgh 7 12
Vegas 8 12
In addition, four of Tommy Novak’s five points and three of Declan Carlile’s four points this season have come in the second period.
Over the last six games, the Pens have only scored three goals in the first period, conceding six. They’ve also had problems in the third period with a 4-10 combined score in the last six games. However, that middle period has been a big boon for them with a 12-5 scoring edge on the season.
SAN ANTONIO - MARCH 10: Manu Ginobili #20 of the San Antonio Spurs wears his "Los Spurs" jersey as part of the NBA's first-ever, fully integrated Hispanic marketing campaign, Noche Latina (Latin Night), during the game against the New York Knicks on March 10, 2010 at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2010 NBAE (Photo by D. Clarke Evans/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Per a Spurs press release:
“The San Antonio Spurs announced the launch of @LosSpurs, a dedicated Spanish-language Instagram account for the organization. The platform will serve as a digital space catered to Spanish-speaking Spurs fans, with curated content, storytelling and fan engagement efforts. Fans are encouraged to follow the @LosSpurs account to catch the latest news from the team, view exclusive content in collaboration with the Spurs main social accounts and receive information on watch parties, giveaways and more.”
The San Antonio Spurs have made concerted efforts to take the NBA to global heights. They invest time, resources, and energy into efforts in Mexico — everything from basketball camps to community initiatives. And a large percentage of their fanbase back here in San Antonio identify as “crazy Hispanic Fans.”
Said Jordan Mandelkorn, vice president of marketing, creative and retail for Spurs Sports & Entertainment,
“Our Spanish-speaking fans are a big part of what makes the Spurs family so special, and we want them to feel connected to the team in the language they call their own. Los Spurs gives us a new way to celebrate their passion, share stories that resonate with them and bring fans across San Antonio, Mexico and beyond closer to the Silver & Black.”
The team’s @LesSpurs account, launched in 2025 to cater to French-speaking fans, is the most followed French NBA team account in the league.
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DALLAS, TEXAS - NOVEMBER 22: Santi Aldama #7 of the Memphis Grizzlies shoots the ball as Cooper Flagg #32 of the Dallas Mavericks defends during the first half at American Airlines Center on November 22, 2025 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
I just want to put this out there right up front. Something about the way the Dallas Mavericks are handling Santi Aldama’s recovery from an undisclosed(?) injury is telling me we should be more patient than we think we must with the player and more skeptical than we usually are about anything the team says about his status as the season approaches.
Something smells awfully funny here. Even under the Masai Ujiri/Gina Miller administration (campaign slogan: “You can trust us this time. We promise.”), this team will find a way to remain somewhere on the spectrum between coy and disingenuous about injuries like these, and that “undisclosed” designation is our first clue.
What exactly is not being disclosed here? Everyone knows about the knee issues that limited Aldama to 43 games last season. Everyone knows about the arthroscopic stem cell shot procedure he underwent in March to try to relieve prolonged pain in that knee. Did Aldama injure something else after arriving in Dallas? Is the knee issue still nagging, six months after the procedure? Either way, the outlook is murky at best.
The Dallas Morning News reported recently that “it appears they’ll take the same [patient] approach with Aldama [as they are with Dereck Lively II’s recovery timeline].” He did not suit up for either of the two preseason games in Macao, China, and it seems less and less likely that Aldama will be ready to go when the regular season starts.
The Mavericks sent AJ Johnson, a top-20 protected 2030 first-round pick via Golden State, and two future second-round picks to Memphis for Aldama. The deal was folded into a six-team trade that became official on July 8.
Big question
Which brings us to the biggest question surrounding Aldama’s arrival in Dallas for the upcoming season. With such a vague recovery timeline in place, when can Aldama realistically be expected to be a meaningful contributor for the Mavericks, and what role does he fill when that time comes?
The question lurking behind the question is, did the Mavericks trade for someone destined to become the second broken seven-footer taking up a roster space, or is this actually going to work? The fact that so much is being kept under wraps does not portend well at this point. Again, we’re going on seven months with this knee issue at this point.
Aldama brings shooting and size, the ability to stretch the floor and be a weapon along the perimeter. He scored 14 points per game last year in the 43 games he managed before the knee issues flared up. He shot nearly 48% from the floor and 35% from 3-point range. He can be dangerous, but will it pan out in any sort of meaningful way for the Mavericks? It’s hard to say when the team won’r say anything about him.
Best case scenario
The dream season for Aldama is only missing the first five games of the year, taking the next step offensively and getting more than seven rebounds per game this year. He played in a career-best 77 games in 2022-23, his second year in the league, so getting to 70 this year would be amazing. Forcing his way into the lineup for around 25 minutes a night would be ideal, too. Under those circumstances, Aldama would maximize his potential without being exposed as a potential liability against bigger, more physical frontcourts.
“Lineup versatility: He gives us a different dimension if we want to go with it,” first-year Mavericks head coach Dusty May said of Aldama. “An elite shooting lineup. But Santi’s not just a shooter. He can really close out. He’s learned to play against perimeter guys — shotmaking, driving, getting to the paint. That will be one of the many pieces we have to put together if we’re going to be really good.”
Worst case scenario
The worst case for Aldama is if the knee injury is something larger than the Mavericks have disclosed and it limits him from playing in half the games this season. He’s a role player on the rise, but only if he gets in enough games to make an impact. If he doesn’t, sure, that leaves more minutes for Morez Johnson Jr., but it makes the Mavericks’ second unit more one-dimensional. It limits the threat from beyond the arc, which is something this team drastically needs to be better at this season. Adding one or two shooters in Kyrie Irving and Sergio de Larrea is nice — much needed. But building a roster with shooting depth is really what the doctor ordered.
Season goal
Can Aldama make himself an indispensable part of the Mavericks’ rotation? Can he continue the upward statistical trajectory his career arc has assumed through his first five years? Can he space the floor and be a part of the equation that keeps opposing defenses from sticking two defenders on Cooper Flagg? These are the things we want to see. He has the ability to be more than just “a guy.” But he’s also a guy who could easily get relegated to the role of “a guy” if things swing a certain way this season.
If he can inch closer to 40% from 3-point range and score at a rate similar to what he did across his 43 games last year with the Memphis Grizzlies, he’ll be a meaningful contributor. If not, he’ll make it easier for the team to avoid picking up his option next season.
Overall
Everything hinges on Aldama’s health, and it’s an uncomfortable place to be as the regular season approaches. Truly, any outcome is on the table for what is essentially a one-year rental with a team option for a second year. You can squint and see whatever you want with this relationship: a chance to step into a meaningful, much-needed role on a team with a chance to improve vastly in Flagg’s second year, or someone who needs two months to get right before settling into a diminished role on a new team.
Hope for the best, sure, but this team’s recent history has also taught fans to prepare for the worst.
Sep 10, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; General view of the helmet used by the Milwaukee Brewers before the start of the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images | Stan Szeto-Imagn Images
Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. You can now call them, for the first time ever, your NL Champion Milwaukee Brewers! How about that series? We’ll have plenty of time to discuss things as we await an AL Champion, with the World Series set to begin in Milwaukee on Friday, October 23.
Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.
Happy birthday to Rodney Scott, and a mighty host of others.
Today in baseball history, in 1971 – In the World Series, Brooks Robinson drives in Frank Robinson in the 10th inning of Game 6 to give Baltimore a Series-tying 3-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Pittsburgh’s Roberto Clemente does all he can to win the game single-handed. Stranded after his 1st-inning triple to the wall in left center, his 3rd-inning solo shot puts Pittsburgh up, 2-0. All of Clemente’s offensive contributions notwithstanding, the reason the game reaches extra innings is his defensive gem in the bottom of the ninth, a no-look, one-hop strike from Memorial Stadium‘s right field corner, 310 feet away, to catcher Manny Sanguillen, preventing the runner at first, running on contact on Don Buford‘s two-out double, from even attempting to score. By extending the game, Clemente’s throw will force Baltimore’s best player, Frank Robinson, to win this game with his legs, challenging the arm of centerfielder Vic Davalillo on two consecutive plays. In doing so, Robinson tears his left hamstring and aggravates an already damaged right Achilles tendon, and other stories as well.
1923 – Soon after Babe Ruth receives his World Series winner’s share of $6,160.46, insurance agent Harry Heilmann, who beat Ruth for the batting title by ten points, sells him a $50,000 life insurance policy. Beneficiaries are Mrs. Ruth and adopted daughter Dorothy.
2011 – The Cardinals complete their very unlikely run to the World Series by beating the Brewers, 12-6, in Game 6 of the NLCS at Miller Park. Series MVP David Freese opens the scoring with a three-run homer off Shaun Marcum in the 1st, but the Brewers once again manage to chase the Cards’ starter early, scoring four runs off Edwin Jackson in two innings.
2017 – The Yankees notch their first win in the ALCS by defeating the Astros, 8-1, in Game 3 at home. Three-run homers by Todd Frazier and Aaron Judge help New York build an 8-0 lead by the end of the fourth, and they cruise from there as CC Sabathia is the winner over Charlie Morton.
1492 – Christopher Columbus‘ fleet anchors at “Fernandina” (Long Island, Bahamas).
1577 – Francis Drake sights land in the Philippines after crossing the Pacific Ocean aboard the “Golden Hind”.
1901 – Booker T. Washington and his family are invited to dine at the White House with Teddy and Edith Roosevelt, prompting condemnation from the South.
1909 – In his fourth title defense, Jack Johnson knocks out Stanley Ketchel in the 12th round at Mission Street Arena, Colma, California, to retain his heavyweight boxing crown.
1962 – Cuban Missile Crisis begins as US President John F. Kennedy is shown photos confirming the presence of Soviet missiles in Cuba.
1968 – Americans Tommie Smith (gold, 19.83, WR) and John Carlos (bronze) famously give the Black Power salute on the 200 m medal podium during the Mexico City Olympics to protest racism and injustice against African Americans.
1985 – Intel introduces the 32-bit 80386 microprocessor chip.
2023 – Model of a Star Wars X-wing Starfighter used in a “Star Wars” film sells for over $3 million from the collection of Hollywood model maker Greg Jein.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - OCTOBER 01: Dominic Smith #8 of the Atlanta Braves is tagged out by Trea Turner #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning in game three of the National League Wild Card Series at Truist Park on October 01, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Edward M. Pio Roda/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Halfway to Halloween. Halfway to the World Series matchup being decided.
