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Would Robbie Ray really bring back more in trade than Luis Arraez?

May 18, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; San Francisco Giants pitcher Robbie Ray (38) looks on in the second inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images | Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

In yesterday’s SB Nation Reacts survey, Brady posed the question, “Who will return more when they’re invariably traded? Robbie Ray or Luis Arraez?”

I have to say that after going through the comments section I was a surprised by the fan responses even before knowing the poll results. Most seem to think that Robbie Ray would bring back the most value in trade, and that seems to be an opinion formed by two tenets: (1) everyone needs pitching and (2) fans want Luis Arraez to stick around. That’s not an outlier opinion, of course. At the end of May, this site’s founder, Grant Brisbee, wrote for The Athletic that the Giants should extend Arraez.

A few days later, I ranked him as the Giants’ third-most valuable trade chip, but acknowledged that there might not be many teams where he’d be a great fit, limiting a potential return.

Then there’s the factor of what teams value more: offense or defense. Only 11 of the 30 teams have positive defense and offense at second base. Plus, the teams that could use a boost at second base aren’t playoff teams for the most part, and the ones that could be are actually . Only the Rays (+0.3 fWAR, 100 wRC+), but 20 of the 30 teams have at least average defense there. So, how many of those teams would seek an upgrade at the position?

I mention all this to say that there seems to be a strong emotional component when considering Luis Arraez. Not many fans would log on to FanDuel and bet that the Giants would win on a given day without him on the team, I suspect. He was the gamble Buster Posey took this offseason — along with bringing Ron Washington onto the coaching staff — and it has paid out more than what could’ve reasonably been expected. Arraez is simply the 8th-most valuable player in Major League Baseball right now. His 3.3 fWAR places him in this top 10:

10. Nick Kurtz, A’s: 3.3 fWAR
9. JJ Wetherholt, Cards: 3.3 fWAR
8. Luis Arraez, Giants: 3.3 fWAR
7. Corbin Carroll, Dbacks: 3.5 fWAR
6. Kevin McGonigle, Tigers: 3.5 fWAR
5. Otto Lopez, Marlins: 3.6 fWAR
4. Dillon Dingler, Tigers: 3.9 fWAR
3. Yordan Alvarez, Astros: 4.0 fWAR
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: 4.6 fWAR
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs: 5.3 fWAR

This is a testament to his improved defense. His hitting line of .326/.361/.463 is just 89th (126 wRC+). According to FanGraphs, his +8.1 Defensive Runs Above Average is 11th-best in the sport. Not quite the best second baseman, though. JJ Wetherholt ranks first with +11.4 Defensive Runs Above Average. Also, by SABR’s Defensive Index (SDI), a component of the Gold Glove voting, he’s far less impressive: 0.9 SDI. Just 8th out of 14 qualifiers.

So, do fan emotions have it right? Is Arraez more valuable to the Giants on the roster than as a trade chip?

I’ll still say no.

Arraez has been traded twice in his career (in 2023 from the Twins to the Marlins, in 2024 from the Marlins to the Padres) for 7 total players. Yesterday, I looked at the history of trading ace-type pitchers at the deadline and came away with the feeling that the Giants would have a tough time moving a player not only because of the entertainment cost but because the odds of getting back a truly great trade package are slim. I don’t feel that’s the case here with Arraez.

Here are the players traded for Luis Arraez:
OF Byron Chourio (18 at the time, now 21, has not appeared in MLB)
INF Jose Salas (20 at the time, now 23, has not appeared in MLB)
SP Pablo Lopez (27 then, now 29, an All-Star for the Twins who has amassed 9.6 fWAR in 2+ seasons and 455 IP)
RP Woo-Suk Go (25 then, now 27, has not appeared in MLB, has not appeared in MLB)
OF Dillon Head (19 then, now 21, has not appeared in MLB) — #25 in Miami’s system
OF Jakob Marsee (23 then, now 25; 96 RC+, 2.1 fWAR in 585 PA across 2 seasons for Marlins)
OF Nathan Martorella (23 then, now 25, just released, has not appeared in MLB)

In both instances, the trading team wound up getting back a major leaguer. It worked out best for the Twins, of course, because Pablo Lopez has been great for their rotation and the Giants sorely need starting pitching, but the truth is that the Giants might be able to get a couple of arms for him, or at least some intriguing volume that has more on-paper promise than what happened in the Tyler Rogers and Camilo Doval deals last season.

Another trade to think about was the Orioles trade of Manny Machado back in 2018. No, no, no — not saying that Luis Arraez is Manny Machado… he’s more like 75% of Manny Machado, and in that deal Baltimore made with the Dodgers, they got back five players for Machado’s expiring contract.

The Dodgers sent the then-#84 prospect of MLB Pipeline’s top 100, OF Yusniel Diaz, along with pitcher Dean Kremer (their #28 prospect), third baseman Rylan Bannon, and major leaguers Breyvic Valera and Zach Pop. Let’s round down on the 75% to say that the Giants could get three players, none who would be on MLB Pipeline’s top 100, but possibly one of whom would be a current major leaguer (or on a 40-man roster). The other two could be in the back half of the receiving team’s top 30.

Currently, the worst teams at second base that otherwise have playoff aspirations are:

  • Tampa Bay, +0.1 fWAR (82 wRC+)
  • Washington, +0.4 fWAR (63 WRC+)
  • Athletics, +0.6 fWAR (94 wRC+)
  • Minnesota (lol), +1.0 fWAR (97 wRC+)
  • Philadelphia, +1.0 fWAR (81 wRC+)

Somehow, I doubt the Giants would trade with the Athletics for a deadline headline deal like this, but they might also be fine with their tick above average situation same as the Twins. Dave Dombrowski might want to do something to shakeup the Phils’ infield, as Bryson Stott has been worse than the league average offensively for basically his entire career and now he’s scuffling even more this season. And the Rays’ situation is so rough that it’s probably worth addressing at the deadline, too.

Would Tampa Bay do Joe Boyle, Dean Moss, and Jackson Baumeister? Is that too much? Or would Bobby Evans simply kill the deal by reminding Buster Posey of the Matt Duffy trade? Doubtful. How about Alex McFarlane, Gabe Craig, and Raylin Heredia from Philadelphia?

In any case, even on an expiring deal, because he put in the work to make him one of the top up the middle defenders in the sport to go with his elite contact skills, he’s likely to bring back a healthy return. However…

The wisdom of the crowd thinks the pitching’s the thing wherein Buster Posey will catch the most value for the team. This is why I’ve suggested that there’s more of a desire to keep Luis Arraez than there is to keep Ray that’s motivating this result.

One of the reasons why I look to previous trades is to get a sense of how the industry values a player. In Arraez’s case, although he’s older and the contract is less favorable to the acquiring team (lots of money for 50 or so games), he’s somehow better and at an important position. While Ray is a starting pitcher — which always carries value — who saved his season in June (5 starts, 33 IP, 1.36 ERA / 3.20 FIP), he’s never been traded for much.

Jerry Dipoto and Farhan Zaidi balanced their books back in 2024 and prior to that, the Diamondbacks got back Travis Bergen. Before that, he was part of a 3-team trade where the Tigers sent him to Arizona and before that the Nationals traded him to the Tigers for Doug Fister.

Last year, the Rangers sent three pitching prospects to the Diamondbacks for Merrill Kelly. Is that the Ray comp for this year’s deadline? Kohl Drake was their #5 prospect, Mitch Bratt their #9, and David Hagaman their #13. All three are now in Arizona’s top 15. Okay, Drake and Bratt are already on the 40-man, and Bratt has already debuted, so, you could make the case that this is the model.

Ray is younger than Kelly was at the time of the deal, but he also lacks Kelly’s numbers. In 2021, Robbie Ray pitched like Logan Webb does every day he roles out of bed (3.9 fWAR), but since then, in 501 innings, he’s amassed just 4.3 fWAR across five seasons. That’s not great, and it’s not helped by a 4.23 FIP (career: 4.11). He tends to walk guys (career 3.81 BB/9) and give up home runs (1.35 HR/9), but balances those out with strikeouts (10.64 K/9). This year, he’s not striking guys out so much (7.71) while the walks and homers remain consistent. That wasn’t the case with Merrill Kelly last season. At the time of the deal, he was striking guys out above his career average, walking guys around his career average, and allowing slightly fewer home runs than usually. Like Ray today, his deal would expire at season’s end. The Rangers figured they’d catch a guy during his last gasp and the deal worked out just okay (3-3 in 10 starts, a 4.23 ERA, +0.8 FWAR).

But, at the end of the day, either Robbie Ray (the people’s choice) or Luis Arraez will bring back at least a trio of prospects for the Giants. Figure at least one of those would be in the zone of Drew Gilbert or Blade Tidwell, but also consider that the Giants could actually get a bit more impact from that in the case of Luis Arraez, especially if the acquiring team is especially desperate (ahem, Philadelphia). But, yes, if you’re looking for volume, Robbie Ray is likely to bring back some quantity.

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Friday Posted & Toasted Notes: Murky truths, spoiler’d Lowry, new NBA rules

A ray is seen inside the Lisbon Oceanario in Lisbon, Portugal, on February 1, 2026. The aquarium is one of the city's most visited attractions, contributing to Lisbon's tourism economy and year-round visitor activity. (Photo by Luis Boza/NurPhoto via Getty Images) | NurPhoto via Getty Images

Spicy day around the Association on Thursday as everybody from Twitch streamers to Import Beantowners had plenty to say about everything. Here’s a bunch of links to keep you entertaining as we enter Day 4 of this new and weird No-Centers Knicks Era.

  • Mitchell Robinson leaving for Boston already hurt enough, but Mitch made it sting a little more on Instagram, replying to an OG Anunoby sad-face comment.
  • Does Robinson know he still owes us an explanation himself? Get ready, Mitchie.
  • Finer gentleman Ariel Hukporti (who as a new Sixer we now hate too, don’t get it twisted) also sent his goodbyes.
  • The Knicks keep trying to fix the unfixable and sign/trade for some center, but so far, they’ve had no luck. In the latest round of bad news, New York has been trying to replace Mitch by going after New Orleans’ Yves Missi, but the Pelicans have made their stance on that very clear. Looks like the Knicks are doomed to settle for one or two of Looney, Drummond, Plumlee, Powell, Biyombo, Richards, or any other warm and aging body.
  • SNY’s Ian Begley heard a similar message around the draft, but decided to wait more than a week to report it. Weird.
  • Newsday’s Steve Popper attempted to breakdown some of the remaining options for the Knicks. Usual names on top of Mousa Cisse, Ryan Kalkbrenner, and Moussa Diabate. The background:

“The Knicks are still waiting, searching and letting the prices settle down — for the math to work and for a player to decide that filling the role that Robinson occupied is for him. The Knicks have approximately $8.5 million left to fill out the roster if they want to remain below the second apron, an edict that Madison Square Garden chairman James Dolan voiced just days after the championship was secured. That money isn’t just for a backup center but to finish off the last spots on the roster. The Knicks have 11 players under contract and must have 15 — or at least 14, a number they can roster for 14 consecutive days and 28 days total in a season.”

  • HoopsHype reported the Knicks had interest in Marvin Bagley III before he signed a minimum deal with Denver.
  • The New York Post’s Stefan Bondy noted some big Knicks extension windows are opening, even if we’re not quite focused on that for now. Those belong to Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, and Miles McBride, all of whom can negotiate extensions between now and Aug. 10. Very worth reading in full, and we’ll surely cover it in detail later this week/month/summer. Here’s a snippet:

“All these extensions, if signed, would start in the 2027-28 season. Coming off the franchise’s first championship in 53 years, it would make sense to contractually lock up the key players involved. But as Mitchell Robinson’s free agency underscored, there are sometimes other considerations — like aprons and egos. With KAT and especially Hart, the guess is they’ll agree to extensions before or during next season. McBride’s extension, meanwhile, is the diciest of the three.”

  • The LeBron-to-Knicks speculation is growing louder, if not quite likelier. Jake Fischer reported the Knicks showed some level of interest in LeBron while on a livestream, only for SNY’s Ian Begley to pour cold water on it shortly after.
  • The unrecognizable Sixers are reportedly lurking too, thanks in part to the arrival of Jaylen Brown and the Tyrese Maxey-Klutch ties.
  • At least one thing in the James sweepstakes is clear, ESPN’s Shams Charania believes.
  • The NBA will test a one-free-throw rule during Summer League, using the G League model, where one single FT attempt is worth one, two, or three points depending on the foul situation. It won’t apply in the final two minutes or overtime. The league will also test a basketball with an embedded sensor — pause — to help with future officiating applications like last-touch out-of-bounds calls.
  • Jaylen Brown (of course) went live on Twitch after the first streamer-for-podcaster trade was confirmed on Wednesday. He talked about a bunch of stuff and made clear he wasn’t thrilled with how Boston treated him.

“I wasn’t thrilled with the amount of respect I was shown during this process. I think there was a bit of a lack of respect. I think it was fine at one point, and then out of nowhere, things just kind of went left. I think Brad is probably getting a lot of the criticism. I wasn’t thrilled the way he facilitated some of the conversations.”

  • Sister site CelticsBlog pushed back on a Bill Simmons report about Giannis-to-Boston falling apart over extension demands. Choose your fighter as Boston collapses!
  • Kyle Lowry is reportedly set to retire as a Raptor on a one-day contract, and he was pissed about the news being leaked.
  • Spain beat Austria 3-0 at the World Cup. Sorry, I had to include it.

You can follow Antonio on Twitter at @chapulana.

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Blue Jays vs Mariners Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Tonight's MLB Game

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Dylan Cease and his AL-leading strikeout stuff headline the series opener in Seattle, and I’m riding the Toronto Blue Jays ace.

The Blue Jays open a weekend series in Seattle riding high after a nine-run Canada Day romp, and they hand the ball to Dylan Cease against the Seattle Mariners and Luis Castillo.

Cease has been overpowering lately, and a Mariners lineup that hasn’t seen much of him sets up my favorite play of the night.

Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks for this Friday, July 3 matchup.

Blue Jays vs Mariners predictions

Blue Jays vs Mariners best bet: Dylan Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts (+120)

Dylan Cease is a push away from what feels like one of the best pitching seasons in Toronto Blue Jays history. The right-hander has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball, a triple-digit fastball, a wipeout breaking ball, and an AL-leading 128 strikeouts in 83.1 innings.

That 13.8 K/9 usually carries him over his strikeout number, and he’s punched out eight or more in seven of his last eight starts. The one thing that trips him up is command, like last time out against the Texas Rangers, when he walked five.

I’m confident the ace settles back in against a Seattle Mariners lineup that ranks 20th in the majors at 8.64 strikeouts per game and hasn’t seen much of him. 

Julio Rodriguez has just two career at-bats against Cease, and Josh Naylor owns a modest .640 OPS in 25 at-bats.

I’d play this until even money, so make sure you’re getting it at +100 or longer.

Covers COVERS INTEL:  That strikeout surge is powered by a deadly slider (+11 run value, per Baseball Savant), against which opposing hitters own just a .159 average and .215 slugging.

Blue Jays vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)

The Blue Jays have won seven of their last 10 against the Mariners, including an epic seven-game ALCS last fall to reach the World Series, and they’re rolling off that Canada Day blowout. 

I like Over 7 total runs, too, backing Toronto to break through against Luis Castillo. 

And Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts anchors it, especially with the extra off day helping him work deeper and rein in his command.

Blue Jays vs Mariners SGP

  • Over 7 
  • Blue Jays moneyline
  • Dylan Cease Over 8.5 strikeouts
img loading="lazy" width="100%" height="null" src="https://img.covers.com/editorial/2026/jaysmlcbp.jpg" alt="Canada’s best price for Jays"
Get the best Jays ML odds at BET99 — every game.

Blue Jays vs Mariners home run pick: Sean Keys (+790)

Bet on Sean Keys and turn the ignition. The Blue Jays rookie announced his arrival with a massive three-run homer on Canada Day, giving the fan base a well-deserved jolt of energy.

We don’t have much of a sample through 12 MLB at-bats, but the 23-year-old went deep 21 times in 67 minor-league games before his call-up, so the pop is very real.

Keys draws a nice matchup against Mariners starter Castillo. His first big-league homer came on a hard, outside fastball from Freddy Peralta, and Castillo is another fastball-heavy arm. 

Play this one north of +700, and keep it to a quarter unit.

2026 Transparency record
  • Best bets: 2-1, +0.79 units
  • SGPs: 1-2, +0.69 units
  • HR picks: 0-3, -0.75 units

Blue Jays vs Mariners odds

  • Moneyline: Blue Jays -130 | Mariners +110
  • Run line: Blue Jays -1.5 (+135) | Mariners +1.5 (-155)
  • Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Mariners trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have won seven of their last eight games at T-Mobile Park, a friendly backdrop for another road win in Seattle. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Mariners.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Mariners and game info

LocationT-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
DateFriday, 7-3-2026
First pitch10:10 p.m. ET
TVKING 5, SN
Blue Jays starting pitcherDylan Cease
(4-4, 3.02 ERA)
Mariners starting pitcherLuis Castillo
(3-6, 4.93 ERA)

Blue Jays vs Mariners latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Mariners weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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Rays vs Astros Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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The Tampa Bay Rays have won eight consecutive games yet are not favored against a sub .500 Houston team.

My Rays vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks believe that is for good reason, and see value in backing the home side.

Who will win Rays vs Astros today: Houston Astros (-110)

Nick Martinezowns an unfathomably low 18.9% ground ball rateover the last 30 days. He can’t keep the ball on the ground, and he’s leaking oil as a result.

Martinez conceded at least three earned runs in four of five starts during that stretch.

The Houston Astros are equipped to exploit his struggles, ranking seventh in FB% and tied for 11th in ISO against right-handed pitching since June 1.

If Spencer Arrighetti stabilizes as he should (he owns a 9 ERA the past month despite a 3.8 xFIP), the Astros should win.

Back Houston to -120.

Covers COVERS INTEL:Nick Martinez ranks in the 32nd percentile in xERA, indicating he has not pitched nearly as well as his 2.66 ERA suggests.

Rays vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-120)

The Tampa Bay Rays have a potent offense but it lacks power, particularly on the road. No team has posted a lower ISO, or hit fewer home runs, in away games when facing right-handed pitching.

Arrighetti has struggled with the long ball, allowing three homers in back-to-back games. This is a spot where he should be able to limit power, as he’s done effectively for the majority of the season.

Martinez has allowed only 0.87 homers per nine innings in away games while walking just 4.2% of batters. Those outputs put a ceiling on opposing offenses.

Bet to -130.

Todd Cordell's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 47-38, -1.45 units
  • Over/Under bets: 45-36-4, +4.69 units

Rays vs Astros weather

The Houston Astros play in a rarely opened dome so hot temperatures should have little to no impact on this game.

Rays vs Astros odds

  • Moneyline: Rays -110 | Astros -110
  • Run line: Rays -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under: Over 9.0 (+100) | Under 9.0 (-120)

Rays vs Astros trend

Houston has hit the moneyline in 24 of the last 40 games (+7.90 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Astros.

How to watch Rays vs Astros and game info

LocationDaikin Park, Houston, TX
DateFriday, July 3, 2026
First pitch8:15 p.m. ET
TVApple TV
Rays starting pitcherNick Martinez
(7-2, 2.66 ERA)
Astros starting pitcherSpencer Arrighetti
(7-4, 4.00 ERA)

Rays vs Astros latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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The Knicks looked into a LeBron James union — here’s why it’s ‘very, very unlikely’

An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows LeBron James of the Los Angeles Lakers in a purple jersey and white leggings saves the ball from going out of bounds during a game against the New York Knicks, Image 2 shows Two men in a podcast setting with a whiteboard displaying basketball player names and team abbreviations behind them
LeBron Knicks

The Knicks “checked in” on free agent LeBron James, as stated by his power agent Rich Paul, but a signing is “very, very unlikely,” multiple sources told The Post.

A source said the discussion between Paul and the Knicks was cursory, with Paul later explaining on his podcast why New York actually lost appeal by winning the title.

Either way, a Knicks-LeBron union – which feels decades in the making – is not in the cards. 

“It’s difficult,” Paul said on his “Game Over podcast on Netflix. “The last thing you want to do is mess up something like that. The Knicks have a good thing. … If the Knicks hadn’t have won (the title), there’d be no board (of teams). He’d be going to the Knicks.”

Lakers forward LeBron James saves the ball from going out of bounds against the New York Knicks. JASON SZENES/ NY POST

LeBron, who averaged 21 points as an All-Star last season, would obviously be a tremendous fit on the court but adds a different element to the atmosphere.

The defense of the championship would suddenly morph into a different story, replete with distractions – the potential farewell tour of arguably the greatest player of all time. 

 The Knicks, who are trying to avoid the second apron, can also only offer a veteran minimum contract to James, who is looking for a new team after informing the Lakers he wasn’t returning. 

With LeBron out of the mix, the Knicks are still searching for a backup center to replace Mitchell Robinson, who bolted to the Celtics in free agency.

Regardless, a source said that the “core” of the Knicks will remain in place for the upcoming season.

“The Knicks are very happy with the core of the roster,” the source said. 

LeBron has been most linked to three potential destinations in free agency – the Cavaliers, Warriors and Sixers. 

Each presents a unique opportunity.

With the Warriors, James can earn more money while playing with fellow legend Steph Curry. With the Cavs, he can try to complete a storybook ending with his original franchise. With the Sixers, there’d be three star teammates – Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey – and a chance to break a long title drought. 

The Knicks? There used to be a lot of reasons but those don’t apply after a championship.

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Four NHL Players Who Left The St. Louis Blues In Free Agency

Now, two days removed from the beginning of free agency, the dust has settled, and the rapidness of the moves has slowed down. 

The St. Louis Blues have added Ross Johnston,  a physical fourth-line forward, while also re-signing Jonatan Berggren and Dillon Dube. The Blues have also made some other deals, most notably trading for Mason McTavish on draft night.

But while the team adds, players are always going to be leaving the organization.

That statement is true for four former Blues players: Matthew Kessel, Hunter Skinner, Akil Thomas and Justin Holl.

While none of these players were major factors in the Blues’ lineup, losing depth, especially three right-handed defensemen, is nothing to really scoff at. With that in mind, the Blues should be able to navigate these losses without any issues.

Hunter Skinner, D, Nashville Predators

Skinner was a player Blues fans wanted to see in the NHL, but it just never happened. Originally a fourth-round draft pick by the New York Rangers in 2019, Skinner played just one NHL game with the Blues in the 2025-26 season.

His Blues tenure was spent in the AHL with the Springfield Thunderbirds, where he was a solid two-way defender. 

He’ll now join the Nashville Predators on a two-way contract for one season. The 25-year-old will become a Group-6 UFA if he doesn’t play 79 NHL games this season.

Matthew Kessel, D, New York Islanders

Kessel was given a better opportunity to shine in St. Louis, but he was never able to emerge as an everyday defenseman. During his Blues tenure, Kessel played 99 NHL games over five seasons, scoring three goals and totaling 13 points.

Most of his early career has been spent shuttling between the NHL and AHL. 

Now with the New York Islanders, Kessel is on a standard one-way contract, which means that if the Islanders want to send him to the AHL, he’ll have to clear waivers. As with the Blues this past year, Kessel will likely be used as a seventh defenseman, entering the lineup when someone is injured.

Trio Of Blues Defensive Propsects Invited To Team USA's World Junior Summer ShowcaseTrio Of Blues Defensive Propsects Invited To Team USA's World Junior Summer ShowcaseThree St. Louis Blues 2026 NHL draft prospects will participate in Team USA’s 2026 World Junior Summer Showcase.

Akil Thomas, C, Vancouver Canucks

Once a highly coveted prospect, Akil Thomas just hasn’t been able to take that next step and lock down a role in the NHL. In fact, he hasn’t played an NHL game since 2024-25.

Acquired in a mid-season trade, Thomas joined the Thunderbirds for 20 regular-season games, scoring five goals and nine points. In the post-season, he potted three goals and six points in 12 games.

Thomas now joins the Vancouver Canucks on a two-way contract. With the Canucks in a rebuilding state, there could be an avenue for Thomas to earn a call-up and impress in the NHL.

Justin Holl, D, Washington Capitals

Holl was once a trusted defensive defenseman for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but his career has turned sideways very quickly, and he is now fighting tooth and nail to keep a spot in the NHL.

Holl played just nine games with the Blues and joins a Washington Capitals team where he will likely serve as a seventh defenseman until Rasmus Sandin returns from his long-term injury. 

In the 2025-26 season, Holl played his first game in the AHL with the Grand Rapids Griffins since the 2017-18 season. 

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Could Philadelphia really have Michael Jordan AND LeBron James?

May 9, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) reacts after a foul in game three of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Happy holiday weekend to our largely American audience.

While the Fourth of July is a slow time of the year for the NFL, such is not the case for the NBA.

In case you missed it, which I find hard to believe even if you don’t follow professional basketball, the Philadelphia 76ers made a really big move earlier this week by trading for Jaylen Brown from their rival Boston Celtics.

It was a pretty exciting move. But the intrigue doesn’t stop there.

Now there’s buzz that LeBron James might also end up in Philly. And not just in the form of social media rumors but from an actual podcast hosted by James’ agent himself:

Rich Paul on Sixers: ‘How could they not have [LeBron’s] attention?’

I won’t believe it until it actually happens … but it sure is fun to think about the possibility.

It also allows us to make the joke that Philly could have both LeBron AND Michael Jordan, since the Philadelphia Eagles signed a 28-year-old journeyman offensive guard last month who has that name.

This is the Eagles’ MJ:

Not to be confused with this guy:

For the record, I’ve always been a Jordan > LeBron guy.

RELATED CONTENT: I joined my good friends Michael Levin and Roy Burton to talk Sixers (and their relation to an Eagles/Cowboys dynamic), the Jaylen Brown trade (with an A.J. Brown trade comparison), LeBron, and more on The Rights To Ricky Sanchez podcast:

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TJ Rumfield selected as NL Rookie of the Month for June

May 23, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Colorado Rockies infielder TJ Rumfield (7) reacts while running the bases after hitting a one run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the eighth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Anna Carrington-Imagn Images | Anna Carrington-Imagn Images

Major League Baseball announced today that Colorado Rockies first baseman TJ Rumfield has been selected as the National League’s Rookie of the Month for June.

The award is especially notable given that Rumfield also earned the accolade in May. He is the first player to win National League Rookie of the Month in consecutive months since Atlanta’s Michael Harris II in August and September 2022.

The rookie has had a remarkable season. He appeared in 26 games for the Rockies in June. During that time, he slashed .316/.400/.589, including 14 runs scored, nine doubles, one triple, five home runs, and 17 RBI. In addition, he led all qualified National League rookies in average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, doubles (9), extra-base hits (15) and total bases (56). Rumfield ranked among National League rookies in hits (30, T-1st), home runs (T-1st), walks (12, 2nd) and runs scored (14, T-3rd).

His 2026 slashline is .293/.373/.487.

Rumfield’s defensive work has been equally stellar. In 594.0 innings at first base, he has committed only two errors. He currently has 6 DRS and 2 OAA. His DRS total is the best in MLB among first basemen.

In May, Rumfield became the ninth Rockies player to receive the Rookie of the Month Award. In doing this, he joins Nolan Jones (September/October 2023), Antonio Senzatela (April 2017), Trevor Story (April 2016), Ian Stewart (July 2008), Troy Tulowitzki (August 2007), Garrett Atkins (June 2005), Clint Barmes (April 2005), and Jason Jennings (August 2002).

Rumfield came to the Rockies in January in a trade with the New York Yankees that sent RHP Angel Chivilli to the Bronx.

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2026 MLB Draft Preview: Andrew Williamson

ARLINGTON, TX - MAY 23: UCF outfielder Andrew Williamson (11) scores on a wild pitch before Oklahoma State pitcher Evan O'Toole (25) can get to the plate during the 2024 Phillips 66 Big 12 Baseball Championship game between UCF and Oklahoma State on May 23, 2024, at Globe Life Field in Arlington, TX. (Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

2026 MLB Draft Preview: Andrew Williamson scouting report.

The 2026 is less than two weeks away — the first round kicks off on July 11, 2026 — so its time to start offering capsule looks at players the Texas Rangers could select with their top picks. The Rangers’ first round pick is at #16, their second round pick is at #54, and their third round pick is at #89.

Leading up to draft day, we will be doing writeups of some of the players who could end up getting selected by the Rangers with one of their first three picks. Today we are looking at Central Florida outfielder Andrew Williamson.

Andrew Williamson is a 6’, 195 lb. lefthanded hitting outfielder for Central Florida. Williamson was undrafted in 2023 coming out of St. Petersburg, Florida. He turns 21 later this month.

Williamson is a well-rounded player who has a good but not great hit tool. There are some concerns about him having a hitch at the plate that could lead to timing issues in the pros, though its not seemed to have affected him so far as an amateur. BA says he makes good swing decisions but has some pitch recognition issues that will need to be improved upon. Despite not being especially big, Williamson has good power, particularly to the pull side. He’s described by MLB Pipeline as having a quick swing with quality bat speed.

Williamson played center field as a freshman, but has been in right field primarily since then. He probably ends in right field long-term, though one would think he’ll get a chance to play center as a professional until he shows that he can’t handle the position. He’s got good speed and has had a lot of success as a baserunner in college.

As a freshman, he slashed .258/.333/.411 in 176 plate appearances over 50 games for Central Florida. He was the MVP of the wood bat Cal Ripken League that summer, when he slashed .462/.546/.906 with 9 homers in 29 games. He carried that momentum into his sophomore year, when he slashed .352/.448/.662 in 261 plate appearances over 55 games, with 13 homers and 13 stolen bases, striking out 36 times against 34 walks. After a solid 15 game stint in the Cape Cod League last summer, Williamson slashed .322/.422/.645 for Central Florida this season, wirh 41 walks against 47 Ks and 16 home runs.

Baseball America has Williamson at #47 on their board. MLB Pipeline has Williamson at #52 on their board. Kiley McDaniel puts Williamson at #43 on his top 150 list. Keith Law does not have Williamson on his board. Fangraphs does not have Williamson on their board. Baseball Prospectus does not have Williamson on their top 30 draft board.

Williamson, the nephew of former major leaguer Sean Rodriguez, doesn’t have a real weakness in his game, but also doesn’t have a loud carrying tool, with his tools all grading out at around 50 or 55 (though BA gives his hit tool a 45). If the concerns about his swing and pitch recognition get addressed, he’s a potentially solid major league corner outfielder. If they don’t, is other tools likely aren’t good enough to make him major league regular material.

With a track record of performance in the Big 12, as well as success in wood bat leagues, he seems a fairly safe pick in the second or third rounds, and he’s someone you could see the Rangers taking in that range.

Previously:

Liam Peterson

Tyler Bell

Aiden Robbins

Jared Grindlinger

Logan Reddemann

Cooper Harris

Justin Lebron

Cameron Flukey

Derek Curiel

Hunter Dietz

Logan Hughes

Carson Wiggins

Peyton Bonds

Ace Reese

Sawyer Strosnider

Gio Rojas

Chris Rembert

Jack Natili

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In Edwin Arroyo Cincinnati Reds fans trust

CINCINNATI, OHIO - JUNE 15: Matt McLain #9 and Edwin Arroyo #2 of the Cincinnati Reds celebrate after beating the New York Mets 12-0 at Great American Ball Park on June 15, 2026 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images) | Getty Images

For many Cincinnati Reds fans, the breakout we saw during Matt McLain’s half-season of excellence in 2023 still resonates quite loudly. It’s hard not to, really – he was a 1st round pick of the club and during his first shot at the big leagues looked like he was an immediate success story, posting a 127 OPS+ with both power and speed while manning a premium defensive position.

In many ways, he was emblematic of a time when it looked – if you squinted a bit – like the Reds knew exactly what they were doing, and it was beginning to pay off in spades.

Things went south quickly, however. That 2023 season was cut short due to injury. The 2024 season was lost altogether due to injury(s). In the two seasons since coming back from major shoulder surgery (and oblique problems likely due to his aggressive swing), McLain has posted just a 75 OPS+ in nearly 900 PA.

He’s also going to turn 27 years old in just a month, and this week the Reds began trying to shoehorn him into playing CF for the first real time since his days at UCLA.

That’s hardly a ringing endorsement of the guy you were supposed to consider the everyday 2B, the player who has been given chance after chance to cement both that role and a role atop the batting order by manager Terry Francona since he arrived on the scene last year. And what we’ve seen lately suggests that the time of McLain as the regular 2B may already be on the outs with prospect Edwin Arroyo gradually settling in there himself.

We asked you this week which of McLain or Arroyo should be given the job as the team’s primary 2B for the rest of the season, and you responded in overwhelming fashion. 82% of you think it should be Arroyo who gets to show what he can do there to build upon the 82 PA of 67 OPS+ work he’s put in so far while getting his feet wet at the big league level.

I don’t think it’s time to write off McLain altogether, at least not yet. He’s been passable against LHP so far this season (.749 OPS) and we know he’s a good defender at both 2B and SS. Heck, if he shows he can figure out how to play a little CF again, too, he’s a wonderful depth piece to have as Francona mixes and matches his lineups and mid-game changes.

However, if the Reds are going to once again stay mired in last place in the division and out of the Wild Card race, it likely behooves the team’s front office to find out what they’ve got in Arroyo as soon as they can, and so far there’s been glimpses that the 22 year old has some chops that may make him a pretty good player for awhile in Cincinnati. If the team’s going to hit a reset button of any size, seeing whether he can cut it as a cornerstone piece now makes a lot more sense than continuing to give an older player another dozen chances to rediscover form.

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The harsh reality of targeting Trey Murphy

SACRAMENTO, CA - APRIL 3: Trey Murphy III #25 of the New Orleans Pelicans looks on during the game against the Sacramento Kings on April 3, 2026 at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Rocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

Show of hands, who wants Trey Murphy III?

Yeah?

Me, too!

We all need a pick-me-up right now. Trading Jaylen Brown hurt, no doubt. Sending him to the Philadelphia 76ers, to form what is essentially a Big Three-and-a-half, well, that was borderline treasonous. Murphy would be the ideal mea culpa from Brad Stevens. He’s young, talented, and would complement Jayson Tatum’s game perfectly.

There’s a catch, though. The Boston Celtics are now operating under the hard cap of the first apron, courtesy of using the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception to sign Mitchell Robinson on Wednesday.

As things stand, the Celtics are approximately $3.5 million over the tax, and $5.1 million under the first apron.

After putting in so much work to duck the tax last season, it’s likely Stevens will ensure the Celtics complete their goal of avoiding the repeater tax this season, meaning some money must be shed before or at the 2027 trade deadline.

Unfortunately, it’s that first-apron hard cap that’s going to make life tough for Boston in any potential Murphy pursuit.

Sure, when looking at Murphy’s $27 million salary for next season, and then remembering Boston boasts a $27.1 million traded player exception (TPE), it feels like the stars are aligned. I mean, how often does your primary target fit perfectly into an exception you just have lying around?

However, using a TPE doesn’t exempt a team from eating the cap hit. The exception removes the need to match salaries, but the incoming cost still counts against the cap sheet. So, the brutal truth of the situation is that the math isn’t going to math.

With just $5.1 million between the Celtics’ current standing in the tax and their hard stop at the first apron, there isn’t enough room to lean on the TPE as a vehicle to acquire Murphy outright. Instead, the Celtics will need to send a sizeable amount of salary back to the New Orleans Pelicans.

That’s where things get tough.

Right now, the only two players who make enough to be a viable trade chip are Derrick White and Paul George. Sam Hauser is making around $10 million next season, Payton Pritchard is in the $7 million range, and everyone else is on a downward sliding scale. Of course, I’m excluding Tatum.

Unless another guard is coming back as part of a trade, I struggle to envision Stevens parting with White in a Murphy deal. After all, the Celtics’ guard rotation was already threadbare before they added Mike Conley Jr., so I doubt they take a step backward there.

That leaves George.

As things stand, Brown’s trade to the Sixers is yet to be made official. Deals won’t be confirmed until Monday. Therefore, Stevens could still look to expand the trade, with George then being rerouted elsewhere, along with some of the picks Boston stands to receive. In return, the Celtics could add a younger, more athletic player or two to the rotation.

I took the liberty of throwing together a potentially expanded trade, just to see how things could look if the Celtics opted to go down this route. The deal would look like this:

Boston Gets: Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy

Sixers Get: Jaylen Brown

Pelicans Get: Paul George

I’ll leave it up to you to decide where the draft picks would end up, and whether the Celtics would have to throw any additional picks into the deal to effectively avoid a partnership with George.

The downside of a deal like this is that it would further push the Celtics toward the hard cap, thus making it harder for Stevens to duck under the tax later this season. Yet, it would ensure Murphy landed with the Celtics while reuniting the backcourt pairing of Murray and White from their time together with the San Antonio Spurs.

Granted, this trade idea is far from perfect, and it isn’t supposed to be. It’s just an exercise to illustrate the challenge Boston will face in trying to acquire Murphy, assuming that is legitimately something they’re interested in doing, and the reporting isn’t just noise.

My bigger point here is that, even armed with a large TPE, the Celtics are in a position where they’re going to need to match salaries in any sizeable trade both now and at the deadline — it kind of defeats the point of having a trade exception in the first place, doesn’t it?

That’s why I’ve become open-minded to what a George and Tatum wing duo will look like this season. It would be far easier to run with George and Tatum this year, and then, assuming George picks up his player option (which I would imagine he does), look to flip him and his expiring deal next season.

So, back to that show of hands. Keep yours up if you still want Murphy. And now keep it up if you think a deal actually gets done. Yeah, my hand went down, too.

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Mitchell Robinson hints at Knicks free agency truth: ‘Didn’t want this to happen’

Mitchell Robinson and Josh Hart celebrating after Game 4 of the NBA Finals.
Mitchell Robinson says there is more behind the scenes of his departure story.

Mitchell Robinson’s departure from the Knicks to the Celtics caused a lot of head-scratching around the league, and he’s hinting at there being more to the story.

NBA Finals hero OG Anunoby commented on a post about his now ex-center joining Boston with a cold sweat emoji, resulting in Robinson’s surprising reaction.

“I tried brother I didn’t want this to happen,” Robinson replied to Anunoby. “Hopefully the truth comes out at some point.”

Mitchell Robinson says there is more behind the scenes of his departure story. AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

It’s unclear what Robinson is referring to at this point, but the Knicks’ interest in retaining him in free agency was a big to-do after they won the NBA Finals, with owner James Dolan explaining his reluctance to go into the second apron of the salary cap.

“There’s certain things in the NBA that you’d have to be suicidal to do. One of them is the second apron. Cannot go into the second apron,” Dolan said in an appearance on WFAN’s “The Carton Show” last month. “I’ll write as big of a check as possible, but I can’t write a check that goes into the second apron.”

The second apron is set at around $222 million, and surpassing the threshold comes with punitive measures including a much higher tax and trade restrictions.

The Knicks currently have at least $211 million committed to their 2026-27 roster.

With the Knicks keeping Landry Shamet (4 years, $24 million), Jose Alvarado (3 year, $14.6 million) and Mohamed Diawara (4 year, $10 million), there was only about $10 million to give to Robinson — who agreed to a three-year, $47.4 million contract with the Celtics that is set to pay him $15.8 million for 2026-27.

The Knicks could have matched that offer if they were willing to enter the second apron, but they held fast to Dolan’s edict.

OG Anunoby #8 and Mitchell Robinson #23 of the Knicks pose after winning Game 5 of the 2026 NBA Finals. NBAE via Getty Images

If other machinations existed, it doesn’t seem Robinson is going to be the one to spill the beans.

Robinson was drafted by the Knicks in 2018 and played eight seasons with the team before his departure.

He bid farewell to his former teammate Anunoby in the Instagram message.

“I’m gonna miss you, big dawg,” Robinson said. “Keep doing great things.”

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Padres vs Dodgers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's MLB Game

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The San Diego Padres hope to snap a six-game losing streak and gain some ground in the NL West race as they face the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers tonight.

Oddsmakers aren’t giving San Diego (+223) much of a chance against L.A. (-233) with superstar Shohei Ohtani on the bump, but my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions believe the Ohtani tax is too high. 

Read on for my full MLB picks for Friday, July 3.

Who will win Padres vs Dodgers tonight: Padres (+215)

These odds are inflated since the San Diego Padres have surrendered a whopping 35 runs in their last two games alone, bringing their losing streak to six, and they now have to face Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani (1.58 ERA).

However, that doesn't account for the fact that San Diego has been red-hot at the plate, posting a 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last 14 days.

Ohtani's great, but this is a premium price for someone whose underlying profile (3.33 xFIP, 3.42 botERA) points toward some regression.

I'd play the underdog down to +210.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Shohei Ohtani has shown signs of mortality in his last three starts, surrendering nine earned runs. In that time frame, the Padres have eight different position players with a wRC+ above 130. 

Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-121)

Michael King induces soft contact and keeps the ball on the ground, ranking in the 73rd percentile or better in ground ball rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. That’ll help him avoid a fireworks show, and the Padres have hit the Under in 13 of his 17 starts.

Despite Ohtani showing some signs of weakness lately, he has the second-lowest ERA in the Big Leagues. Naturally, L.A. has played in low-scoring games with him on the bump, going 3-10 O/U. 

With two effective starting pitchers on the bump, that’s enough to counteract two in-form lineups. 

JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 25-23, -1.85 units
  • Over/Under bets: 32-17, +14.23 units

Padres vs Dodgers weather

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s at Chavez Ravine, cooling into the 60s as the game progresses. Light winds shouldn't play much of a factor for either offense. 

Padres vs Dodgers odds

  • Moneyline: Padres +215 | Dodgers -240
  • Run line: Padres +1.5 (-105) | Dodgers -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+109) | Under 8.5 (-121)

Padres vs Dodgers trend

San Diego is 4-13 O/U in Michael King’s starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info

LocationDodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
DateFriday, July 3, 2026
First pitch10:10 p.m. ET
TVESPN
Padres starting pitcherMichael King
(5-7, 3.55 ERA)
Dodgers starting pitcherShohei Ohtani
(8-2, 1.58 ERA)

Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

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MLB.com projects Pirates drafting high school outfielder

Oak Grove player Eric 'EJ' Booth Jr. (3) runs to home and scores a run during the game against Northwest Rankin in Flowood, Miss., on Tuesday, March 24, 2026. | Lauren Witte/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The 2026 MLB Draft is a week away and MLB.com writer Jonathan Mayo has released his latest mock draft as draft day nears. The Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting near the top with the fifth overall pick, and Mayo projects that they’ll take one of the top high school players with that selection.

The Pirates are currently projected to draft outfielder Eric Booth Jr. from Oak Grove High School in Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Booth is ranked as the sixth best prospect in this year’s class and is the top prep school outfielder. Perhaps the Pirates find lightning twice by drafting a top high schooler out of the state of Mississippi like Konnor Griffin.

Booth is a standout in this class for several reasons, one of which is his athleticism. His speed was on full display a year ago when he ran the fastest 60-yard dash at East Coast Pro showcase (6.33 seconds). Despite having a more compact frame (6’0” 207 lbs) he has some decent power at the plate. He’s projected to be a 20-25 home run hitter by the time he makes the major leagues, plus he’s got good bat speed and already impressive natural strength for a 17-year-old. Booth’s power has already been on display as he won the Home Run Derby at the Perfect Game All-American Classic last summer.

After a successful summer Booth has shot up prospect rankings and is being viewed now as possibly the best outfield prospect in the class. His raw athleticism has jumped off the pages as he was given a 70 run grade to go along with a 50 arm grade. The Vanderbilt commit is being looked at as an exciting hitting prospect too, garnering plenty of attention for his low strikeout rates and reliability at the plate. Booth was given a 55 hit grade with 50 power. As a defender there’s certainly some fine tuning that needs to take place within his development but he was still given a 50 arm grade and a 55 field grade.

The Pirates are once again picking in the top five picks of the draft, and they have not been afraid to take top prep talent in recent years. Just a year ago they took the best high school pitcher in Seth Hernandez with the sixth overall pick, and the aforementioned Griffin was taken ninth overall in the 2024 MLB draft. To this point both of those draft picks are paying off as Hernandez is dominating the minor leagues right now, while Griffin has been one of the top contributors in Pittsburgh since making his debut in April. A player like Booth could be another success story for the Buccos.

The MLB Draft will begin on July 11, at the Philadelphia Convention Center starting 1 p.m. ET.

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Mississippi State slugger Ace Reese is being connected to the Washington Nationals

HOOVER, AL - MAY 21: Infielder Ace Reese #3 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs hits a long fly ball during the SEC Baseball Tournament Quarterfinals game between Mississippi State Bulldogs and Georgia Bulldogs on May 21, 2026, at Hoover Metropolitan Stadium in Hoover, Alabama.(Photo by David Buono/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The MLB Draft is only 8 days away, which means we are firmly in mock draft season. For a while, the Nats were being heavily connected to high school two-way player Jared Grindlinger. However, as we get closer to the draft, the winds seem to be shifting towards a college hitter. Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America mocked Mississippi State infielder Ace Reese to the Nats, with Pipeline saying that the Nats “like” Reese.

When you look at Reese’s profile, there is a lot to like. There is a strong argument to be made that Reese has been the most productive hitter in the SEC the last two seasons. After transferring from Houston to Mississippi State following his freshman year, the infielder hit the ground running. Reese hit .352 with 21 homers and a 1.140 OPS. This year he had a strong follow up campaign, hitting .336 with 24 homers and a 1.152 OPS. 

With Ace Reese, you are buying the bat. He is a third baseman right now, but his speed and defense are fringy. The 6’4 slugger has a chance to stick at third, but there is also a real possibility he will have to move to first base. With that sort of profile, you have to be very sure about the bat.

There is certainly a strong case that Reese has an elite bat. He has plus in game power and makes more contact than your average slugger. Reese has a real chance to be a .260ish bat with 30 home run power. Even at first base, that bat would play in a real way. 

However, his offensive profile is not perfect. The biggest flaw in Reese’s offensive profile is his tendency to chase. In each of the last two seasons, he has chased more than the average hitter. His contact numbers also took a slight step back this year, though he does not have a bad hit tool by any means.

Between the chase rates and the slight hit tool concerns, there are more yellow flags in the offensive profile than you would like to see from a bat first guy. You have to worry a little bit about whether his chase issues could be exploited more as he gets into the upper minors and the big leagues. Reese has the power as his calling card, but with his lack of patience, he will also have to hit for a reasonably high average to be a high end bat.

Reese is in a big clump of college hitters who all had good years but left some questions. Our guy Paul made a very cool graphic comparing some of their underlying data. As you can see, Reese has elite power and is a barrel machine. However, the chase and whiff does create some risk in the profile.

Honestly, Reese’s profile is not too different from Ethan Petry, who the Nats took in the second round last year. Petry had some chase in his game, which has actually gotten better in pro ball. Reese chases more than Petry did, but he also has a better hit tool.

I am a bit higher on Reese than Paul is because I have more faith in the hit and power combination. However, if they were to pick Reese at 11, I would like it to be on an underslot deal. In the MLB Pipeline mock, the Nats take Reese over Chris Hacopian and Tyler Bell, which would be interesting to say the least. Bell is a more well rounded profile than Reese, and Hacopian might be the best pure hitter in the draft.

The appeal with Ace Reese is real though. This is a player who can hit absolute tape measure shots and has a gorgeous swing. He has good bat speed, barrels balls up with ease and has a real chance to be at least a 30 homer bat. True middle of the order bats are not easy to find, and Reese has that potential.

It feels crazy, but the draft is just over a week away. Paul Toboni and the scouting team are entering crunch time when it comes to who they pick. For a while, it seemed like they wanted to make a big swing on Grindlinger, and that is still possible. However, as draft day gets closer, it seems like they are falling back on the safety of taking a college hitter.