Parking in one lot near Minute Maid Park reaches $80 before Game 1 of the World Series on Tuesday, Oct. 26, 2021, in Houston. (Photo by Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images)
A completely pointless exercise, as we’ll find out soon enough, but I’m curious what you all think.
Current MLB.tv-based single-team packages are about $20 per month. This includes things branded exactly the same as Braves.TV, like “Padres.TV” and “Giants.TV.”
Braves.TV might offer more than the games, though I’m not sure it’s going to have an impact on the price. I’m not sure anything else, might, either. Though, the Braves might try to capture some revenue by bumping it up and hoping demand for the upcoming season isn’t particular elastic for folks that cut the cord but are in-market. I don’t think an introductory, lower promotional offer is in the cards, either, but who knows.
As I type, I realize the question is almost “Will it be $20/month or not?” essentially. But, weigh in on what you think.
LAKELAND, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 17: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers poses for a photo during the Detroit Tigers Photo Day at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium on February 17, 2026 in Lakeland, Florida. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Happy Wednesday everyone! We’ve had real baseball on our screens, complete with curmudgeon announcers griping about players with too many chains, and hot Tigers’ prospects missing some routine fly balls (both Max Clark, sorry Max). But more important than any of that: we have been able to see and hear the Tigers play, which means we are getting our first real look of what this year’s team might look like, and also it means we are getting ever closer to Opening Day.
Between us and that magical day, though, there is still the World Baseball Classic, and Tarik Skubal surprised many by announcing he would only make one start for Team USA. He shared his reasoning (we’ll get into it below) and it doesn’t make us any less excited about watching that one start.
We’ve got that and other baseball tidbits below, so let’s just get right into today’s news.
Detroit Tigers News
Don’t count on Tarik Skubal being on the mound for the finals in the WBC.
Tarik Skubal said today he will make only one start for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic before returning to Tigers camp.
"If they go to the finals, I think I'm going to try and lobby to just go watch and be with the guys," he said.
Tarik Skubal got into why he would only have one start at the WBC, and it’s primarily so he can be on site with the Tigers during Spring Training so he can be with the team as they gear up for the regular season. Here’s a quote from Kyle Koster’s reporting:
“That was the communication I had with those guys [Team USA]. There’s some risk obviously, and I’m trying to do both things, trying to pitch for Team USA, but also I understand I need to be here with these guys and get ready for the season.”
One could certainly read between those lines and suggest that Skubal also isn’t willing to risk an injury when this season will be his way to guarantee a massive free agency deal in 2027. Seems like he’s playing it smart and safe.
Paws really digging up the embarrassing teenage year photos here….
BREAKING: Nine-time All-Star Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves are in agreement on a one-year, $27 million contract extension that includes a club option for $30 million in 2028, sources tell ESPN. Sale, 36, was set to hit free agency after this season but will remain in Atlanta.
SARASOTA, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 13: Tyler O'Neill #9 of the Baltimore Orioles smiles during practice at Ed Smith Stadium on February 13, 2026 in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Todd Olszewski/Baltimore Orioles/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s a real rush following a team that’s active in free agency. The Orioles flushed a disappointing 2025 by making several moves that should significantly improve the team this season. The Pete Alonso deal rivaled the Corbin Burnes trade as the most exciting offseason acquisition in recent memory. The Birds brought in an established closer, acquired multiple starting pitchers, and added players that can make an impact on both sides of the ball.
The Chris Bassitt signing likely marked the last major transaction until the trade deadline in July, but I’m not ready for the Orioles to stop adding production. Now, with spring training underway, I’m looking for players that can exceed their projected value and emerge as an X factor this year.
I’ve already made the case for Blaze Alexander and Albert Suárez. Alexander looks like an everyday player with Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg sidelined. Holliday remains optimistic for a quick recovery, but things have taken a darker turn with Westburg’s partial UCL tear. Alexander can play second, shortstop or third base while adding additional versatility in the outfield.
Suárez started yesterday and allowed one run in a pair of innings. The veteran could carve out a valuable role as a multi-inning reliever while still maintaining the ability to make a spot start or two if needed.
Tyler O’Neill provided -0.3 WAR last season while struggling to stay on the field. The Orioles inked O’Neill to a $49.5 million dollar deal with an opt out after last season. To no surprise, O’Neill did not opt out after making only 54 appearances last season.
The Orioles gave this guy $50 million because they believed in his bat. O’Neill slugged 31 homers while posting a 217 wRC+ against lefties in 2024. There’s no guarantee that O’Neill will return to form—and there’s even less reason to believe he’ll stay healthy—but he’s a prime example of a guy that can provide more value than he did last season.
O’Neill will face more competition for playing time this season. Baltimore added slugger Taylor Ward from the Angels, and Dylan Beavers looked like an everyday player at the end of last season. That being said, O’Neill would make for a prime platoon candidate with the left-handed Beavers. If he hits, and he’s healthy, the Orioles will make room for O’Neill.
On the other hand, there’s not much competition for Colton Cowser in center field. Leody Taveras will make the team if Baltimore feels it needs a true center fielder on the bench, but he’s not a threat to steal at bats. Cowser possesses the level of job security that’s up there with Alonso and Gunnar Henderson. That may bring some comfort, but it also adds pressure.
Cowser hit below the Mendoza Line over 92 games last season. Imagine the type of value spike he can provide if he matches his 120 OPS+ and 3.1 bWAR from his rookie campaign in 2024.
Staying in the outfield, 2025 marked another lost season for Heston Kjerstad. The former first-round pick faces an uphill battle for playing time this season, but there’s an early buzz about the 27-year-old’s power in Sarasota.
Adley Rutschman sits firmly at the top of the bounceback candidate list, but there’s real optimism there. If we’re looking for guys further under the radar, the bullpen is the place to search.
This could be Yennier Cano’s last chance to recapture the magic of his rookie season. Cano posted a disappointing 5.12 ERA and 79 ERA+ last season. He may never replicate the 194 ERA+ from 2023, but even his 123 ERA+ (3.15 ERA) from 2024 would add stability to an unestablished bunch of relievers.
The Orioles appear content to start the season with Keegan Akin as their top lefty. Akin’s 3.41 ERA and 118 ERA+ from last year is really all anyone should expect from the 30-year-old at this point. If a southpaw is going to emerge as an X-factor in the bullpen, it would likely have to be Grant Wolfram, Dietrich Enns or non-roster invite Eric Torres. Wolfram has struck out five batters in two innings of work this spring.
All of these guys are on the list because they could exceed expectations this season. The number of players that outperform projections will have a direct impact on how the team performs overall. The stars need to deliver, but these type of players can make the difference over a 162-game season.
13 Oct 1999: Right fielder Paul O''Neill #21 of the New York Yankees falls as he makes a catch during game 1 of the American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox at Yankee Stadium in Bronx, New York. The Yankees defeated the Red Sox 4-3. | Getty Images
Today’s Yankee birthday boy is a doozie, a member of the late ‘90s dynasty teams, a fierce and iconic competitor, and a downright good baseball player. Paul O’Neill, born on this day in 1963, may not have spent his entire career in New York, but he will be remembered for his time in pinstripes, and with good reason.
Between four All-Star selections, four World Series rings, a batting title, a Top 100 Yankee nod, a few decommissioned water coolers, and ultimately a retired number and a plaque in Monument Park, The Warrior’s tenure in the Bronx was a highly memorable and successful one.
O’Neill was drafted by the Reds, and got his first call-up to the majors with his hometown team in September of 1985. He would appear in just five games that season, and only in three the next year, but things would get rolling in ‘87. Across 160 plate appearances, O’Neill had a 111 wRC+ and cemented himself in the starting lineup for the Reds going forward.
Paulie continued to be productive player through the late-’80s, and was a crucial part of the 1990 Reds team that won the World Series in an upset over the dynastic A’s. He fully broke out in 1991, hitting a career-high 28 homers with a 128 OPS+, and earning his first All-Star selection. 1992 would be his final year with the Reds, as in November of that year, O’Neill was traded to the Yankees on the heels of a fine but underwhelming season at the plate. Pressed by Cincy manager Lou Piniella to further bolster his power, he instead regressed and savvy Yankees GM Gene “Stick” Michael eyed him as someone in need of a fresh start. New York ultimately received a star for the better part of a decade.
O’Neill’s impact was apparent upon arrival, as he enjoyed perhaps his best big league season at the plate during his first year in the Bronx. He went 4-for-4 in his Bronx debut, got back over 20 homers once again, slugged over .500 for the first time, and reached a then-career-high 134 wRC+. His second season in the Bronx would be one for the ages, but one ultimately shadowed by what-ifs. The 1994 season was cut short by the player strike, but in his 103 games, O’Neill played the best baseball of his life. By the end of April, his average sat at .448, and didn’t drop below .400 until mid-June. The Yankees sat atop the league when play stopped, thanks in large part to O’Neill’s MVP-level play — 21 homers in just 103 games and a league-leading .359 batting average.
He continued to play terrific ball in 1995 and ‘96, earning a second straight All-Star selection in the former, and helping the Yankees win the first of their dynasty championships in the latter. The good times kept rolling in the following year for O’Neill — 21 homers, .324/.399/.514 slash line, 139 wRC+, and another All-Star nod; Paulie was as consistent as they come. The Yankees would lose in the ALDS, but it had nothing to do with him, as he was terrific in October. He homered twice and reached base in half of his plate appearances.
1998 was a year in which just about everything went right for the Yankees, and O’Neill was no exception. He once again put up his near-patented stat line, 24 homers and a 129 wRC+ in 152 games, in what was his most valuable season according to fWAR, with a figure of 5.4. He earned his fifth All-Star selection, and the Yankees won a then-record 114 games in the regular season. They swept the Rangers in the DS, and ultimately defeated Cleveland for the American League pennant. They would take on the Padres in that year’s Fall Classic, and sweep their way to their rightful spot atop the mountain. O’Neill was solid in the championship run, holding up an .806 OPS across 60 plate appearances with a homer in each of the first two series.
In 1999, O’Neill’s age-36 campaign, the outfielder showed his first signs of slowing down. An early-season slump, paired with an injury late in the year and the loss of his father during the World Series finale made for a difficult end of the century for O’Neill. Nonetheless, despite a step back in terms of performance, he was still a positive contributor, and did his part in the Yankees’ second consecutive World Series win.
Retirement was in question for the veteran following the tough year, but he ultimately elected to stick around. He was by no means bad, but his 92 wRC+ marked the first and only below average offensive season of his career. He was no hole in the lineup either, as he still slugged 18 homers and 100 RBI in the down year, and the Yankees went on to their third consecutive World Series. O’Neill hit .310 in the postseason, with a gutty 10-pitch battle against Mets closer Armando Benítez keying a ninth-inning rally in World Series Game 1. Even on those old legs, he tripled twice in the series while earning a fifth ring in his decorated career, and the Yanks took down the Amazins in the Fall Classic.
His status was up in the air again for 2001, but O’Neill ultimately returned for one more season in the Bronx. His regular season ended with injury trouble, but it was still a productive one. O’Neill oddly set a career high with 22 stole bases at 37-years-old, and became the oldest player to record a 20-homer/20-steal season.
Although that 2001 World Series run was a famously devastating one, O’Neill’s contributions were huge in their near-miss. He homered twice and managed a 123 wRC+ in the postseason, with his health likely less than 100 percent. The fans serenaded him in the ninth inning of his final appearance in the Bronx, the unforgettable World Series Game 5.
The heartbreaking Game 7 in Arizona would prove to be his last big-league game, putting a cap on what was a terrific 17-year Major League career.
There is a good argument to be made that he was at the center of the Yankees’ historic run from 1996-2000, which saw them win four championships. not only for his spirit on the field, but because he was an significant and consistent producer with the bat. This was certainly the case when October came around, and as a result, it is hard to picture that dominant run without Paul O’Neill in the middle of it.
A YES Network announcer for over two decades now, O’Neill’s tremendous impact on the Yankees would not go unrecognized, as he would have his No. 21 retired in Monument Park during the 2022 season, forever cementing his place in Yankee history.
Here’s to a happy 63rd to the ever-entertaining Paul O’Neill!
See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.
Missouri baseball’s trip through Boca Raton and Fort Myers mostly followed the status quo, in the sense that the best team came out on top. Across its last four games before the Tigers’ return to Columbia, the continuous high performance of the starting pitching continued, with what has been a real offensive punch to begin. On the mound, showing that just maybe, a pitching staff that isn’t facing an injury bug every other week is beginning to take shape. Who’s continued to settle in, who’s heating up, and what this group has shown right before the calendar turns to March and the Tigers’ opening games at Taylor Stadium.
The promising debut of Dohrmann
The lone loss of the four‑game stretch came in a 4–2 loss at Florida Atlantic, but even that night offered more positives than the scoreboard suggested. Freshman JD Dohrmann showed flashes of his command in the team scrimmage and handled his collegiate debut with high poise, working five innings and allowing just one earned run while striking out five.
Through four games, Missouri’s rotation had already established a pattern: Javyn Pimental, Josh McDevitt, Brady Kehlenbrink, and now Dohrmann had each gone at least five innings in their respective pitching outings. Together, they’d allowed only five earned runs in 20 innings, giving the Tigers a real backbone, one that wasn’t often there last season.
Missouri, similar to its loss to Mount Saint Mary’s had its chances against Florida Atlantic. Jase Woita tied the game in the sixth with his second home run in as many days, continuing a scorching start that pushed his average near .400 with double‑digit RBI. Tyler Macon added a hit and a run from his strong position in the leadoff spot, and Pierre Seals made one of the defensive plays of the night with a diving grab in right. The bullpen couldn’t hold on to keep the Tigers ahead, Kadden Drew in his appearance chipped in 0.2 scoreless innings in the 4-2 defeat.
Macon’s hot start continues in his personal playground
Is it Terry Park, or is it an established leadoff hitter for Missouri? I’d go with the latter based on the in-game evidence. In the first game against New Haven, Macon continued his absurd run of reaching base in Fort Myers, going 3‑for‑4 with four runs, two RBI, a double, and two stolen bases. Did I mention he now has reached base 21-out of his last-27 at bats according to MU Athletics?
Behind him, Pimentel delivered his part of the young season: five innings, one run, three hits, and a career‑high 10 strikeouts. Missouri didn’t need a massive offensive outburst — though they got contributions from Seals, Maisonet, and Frost — because their starter set the pace and the bullpen, including freshman Luke Sullivan, handled the rest. Sullivan’s 1.2 scoreless innings, complete with three strikeouts and a bases‑loaded escape, were one of the weekend’s quieter but still interesting pitching developments.
A 17‑run reminder
The second game against New Haven was the kind of afternoon where Missouri’s lineup looked like it had been waiting to tee off like a golfer on Pebble Beach. The Tigers scored 17 runs on 15 hits, spreading the damage across nearly everyone in the order.
Serna doubled home a run, Humbert added two more, Frost reached base four times, and Maisonet kept his steady start to the season rolling with two hits and an RBI. Macon of course drove in four more, and McDevitt gave Missouri another five‑inning start with seven strikeouts. It was the type of game that makes a lineup feel deeper than it did the week before.
Closing with authority
Missouri wrapped the weekend with a 16–2 run‑rule win, and the first inning alone told the story: eight runs and once again a lineup that didn’t let up.
Macon’s red-hot bat led to his triple, driving in three. Seals collected three hits, Maisonet homered, and Sam Parker added three RBI of his own. Kehlenbrink punched out seven in five innings, continuing the rotation’s early‑season consistency, and the bullpen finished the job, this time not playing down to competition and finishing the game without drama.
Missouri’s last four games were another pad the win column; and showcasing the pitching rotation which has been stacking five‑inning starts like clockwork thus gar and giving the batters in the lineup a claustrophobic’s favorite thing. Room to breathe.
The offense in this portion of the non-conference schedule is capable of blowing a game wide open, depending on the day, and, importantly for the Tigers, players like Tyler Macon and Jase Woita are continuing to shape their places in the batting order.
At the risk of beating a dead horse, it’ it’s the early stretch of the season. The four-game stint showed the early signs of a team that’s beginning to mold itself together— to make its display on the theatre field that is the baseball diamond more fun to watch.
The NHL resumes following the Olympic break, and the Winnipeg Jets head to Rogers Arena for a must-win game against the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday, February 25.
Winnipeg needs wins in bunches to make a playoff push, and my top Jets vs. Canucks predictions and NHL picks are calling for Winnipeg to continue its recent dominance over Vancouver tonight.
Jets vs Canucks prediction
Jets vs Canucks best bet: Jets moneyline (-125)
The Vancouver Canucks are just 6-17-4 on home ice this season, so I’m happy to lay the vig with a superior Winnipeg Jets lineup.
Both teams are dealing with injuries and Olympic returnees, so while there are questions to be answered on both benches, I also value Winnipeg beating Vancouver in eight of their past 10 matchups.
Of course, the Jets also rank higher in Corsi For percentage and expected goals percentage at five-on-five, in addition to both special teams.
Jets vs Canucks same-game parlay
Vancouver has scored the fourth-fewest goals per game (2.54), and Winnipeg has hit the Under in six of its past nine games. Additionally, the Jets haven’t hit an Over with a 6.5 total since November 29.
Turning to Winnipeg center Mark Scheifele, he recorded two or more shots in 10 of 14 games before the Olympic pause, and he also averaged a hefty 21:49 of ice time centering the top line and jumping the boards with the No. 1 power-play unit.
Vancouver has also allowed the seventh-most shots per game this season.
Jets vs Canucks SGP
Jets moneyline
Under 6.5
Mark Scheifele Over 1.5 shots
Jets vs Canucks odds
Moneyline: Jets -130 | Canucks +110
Puck Line: Jets -1.5 (+185) | Canucks +1.5 (-225)
Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+105) | Under 6.5 (-125)
Jets vs Canucks trend
The Vancouver Canucks have only won five of their last 25 games at home (-15.35 Units / -57% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs. Canucks.
How to watch Jets vs Canucks
Location
Rogers Arena, Vancouver, CA
Date
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Puck drop
10:00 p.m. ET
TV
TSN3, SNP
Jets vs Canucks latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 12: Anthony Seigler #48 of the Boston Red Sox reacts as he takes batting practice during a spring training workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 12, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Who is he and where did he come from?
He’s Anthony Seigler. Have you not had enough infield depth pieces to read this winter? You’re in luck, because we’ve got more.
This particular infield depth piece started 25 games at third base for the playoff-bound Brewers in 2025 after making his MLB debut in July. The 26-year-old lefty from Cartersville, Georgia was a first round draft pick for the Yankees (three picks in front of Triston Casas!) and spent the first five years of his professional career in that organization. The Yankees-Red Sox crossover comps don’t stop there, because he is just the second Navajo player of all-time to make a Major League roster, joining none other than Jacoby Ellsbury.
Is he any good?
Stop me if you’ve heard thus one before: he’s exactly okay. Which is fine! Seigler has not quite found it yet at the plate in his short Major League career, batting just .194 with one extra base hit (a double) in his 62 at-bats. He fared a lot better at Triple-A, slashing .285/.414/.478. This is bolstered by his ability to draw walks, as his percentage as a pro approaches 20 percent. He’s patient, quick, and can pull a ball when he does hit it. Check out his Prospect Savant page for this hot chart (minimum 700 pitches seen.)
Clearly, Seigler has more work to do about getting that ball out of the park, but it’s interesting looking at the small sample size that is his Major League spray chart below (blue represents fly balls) and noticing that the ballpark he played last year in Nashville (a city that, in my opinion, is bound to have a Major League team in the next few decades) has a center field wall that measures about 20 feet further than where he’ll be hitting in 2026 (we’re talking about Worcester, here, not count Fenway’s triangle…)
One more thing about Seigler: he’s played all over the diamond, splitting most of his minor league innings between catcher and second base. And if that’s not enough versatility for you, he was drafted as a two-way player who also pitches, something that is great in, uhhh, emergency situation. But, I wouldn’t put too much stock in it, as he was only called upon to take the mound once in 2025. Plus, if you ask Alex Verdugo, he can throw 98 miles per hour and should pitch, too.
Here’s his first Major League hit. He has a really interesting swing here, as he appears to choke down a little. Which, if you’re hitting well, great! With Seigler, though, you almost wonder if an adjustment is needed.
But believe it or not, Seigler has even cooler highlights than his first Major League hit. That’s because, not only is he a two-way player, he’s a two-way player who throws with both hands:
It’s really tough to tell, and depends how good (and healthy) Durbin, Mayer, or whoever actually ends up playing third base is. It’s curious that the Red Sox dealt two pitchers, albeit some blocked from the rotation, in acquiring Durbin AND two guys that could potentially replace Durbin, who’s also going into just his second season in the show. If you see too much of Seigler outside of some Worcester highlights in 2026, it probably signals something going pretty badly. But you never know: if you see enough of Seigler at Fenway, it could also signify something went very right very quickly in developing him.
COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — Co-host Sri Lanka was knocked out of cricket’s T20 World Cup on Wednesday after losing to Group 2 rival New Zealand by 61 runs in the Super 8 stage.
New Zealand hit 168-7 after being put in to bat by Sri Lanka captain Dasun Shanaka.
ATLANTA, GA - FEBRUARY 24: Bilal Coulibaly #0 of the Washington Wizards drives to the basket during the game against the Atlanta Hawks on February 24, 2026 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Joe Boatman/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The highlight of last night’s Wizards loss to the Atlanta Hawks was almost certainly the singing of the National Anthem by the Chamblee High School Mixed Chorus and River Ridge High School Junior ROTC. Catch it on a replay, if you can. Those kids did great.
The game itself had me doing mental math figuring out how many more of these I have to watch this season. Because ugh.
Wizards rookie Will Riley had a good fourth quarter in the team’s loss to the Atlanta Hawks. | NBAE via Getty Images
If you time-shifted this one to the morning, I’d recommend just firing it into the sun. In the first minute, I’d jotted “sloppy” in my notes. A few seconds later, I wrote, “SLOPPY.”
The Wizards committed turnovers on each of their first five possessions. They were disorganized and discombobulated. They were getting pummeled on the glass. When they finally did start getting shots up, they were inaccurate, and the shot selection was…well…crummy.
There were some moments of hopeful basketball. Bilal Coulibaly made a couple strong drives on consecutive possessions for a potential and-one (he missed the free throw) and a dunk. Dyson Daniels, who was first team All-Defense last season, had trouble staying in front of him. At least on those possessions.
The second of those possessions came with 8:33 to go in the first quarter. The game degenerated from there.
Before Atlanta began The Slacking Off, they built a 38-point lead. Washington’s bench mob staged something of a “comeback” to cut the final margin to a semi-respectable 21 points. The game was not even that competitive.
For the record, I double-checked my in-game mental math, which turned out to be correct. The Wizards have 25 games left in the season.
Thoughts & Observations
Atlanta’s broadcast had the cinematic camera first used (at least in the NBA) by the Toronto Raptors. It blurs the background on player closeups and a few other shots and looks epic. Kudos to the Hawks for adding it.
Here are Washington’s offensive ratings (points per possession x 100) by quarter:
First: 74
Second: 85
Third: 72
Fourth: 155
The fourth quarter output was more a result of Atlanta defensive indifference than Washington offensive excellence. Kudos to the Wizards for making the shots, I guess.
Neither team played well on the offensive end. Washington’s 91 offensive rating was their fourth worst of the season. Atlanta’s 110 ortg was more than five points per 100 possessions below average…against one of the NBA’s worst defensive teams.
Given the number of possessions (108 for each team) an average NBA game would have produced 249 points. The Wizards and Hawks combined for 217.
All complaining aside, Coulibaly had a pretty decent game despite shooting 3-9. In 24 minutes, he had 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals, and 4 blocks.
If you’re looking for positives, focus on clips involving Will Riley (7-8 shooting) or Justin Champagnie (5-8) or Jamir Watkins (6-8).
Watkins, by the way, got hit with a well-deserved technical for flopping.
Jonathan Kumgina looked great in his Hawks debut. In 24 minutes, he had 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 assists and hit 3-4 from three-point range.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORS
WIZARDS
HAWKS
LGAVG
eFG%
50.0%
44.9%
54.3%
OREB%
4.5%
32.8%
26.1%
TOV%
18.6%
9.3%
12.8%
FTM/FGA
0.167
0.215
0.208
PACE
108
99.5
ORTG
91
110
115.4
Stats & Metrics
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
CHICAGO, IL - SEPTEMBER 15: Ryan Mountcastle #6 of the Baltimore Orioles returns to the dugout during the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on Monday, September 15, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by George Gaza/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
The Orioles made a lot of noise this offseason, and Pete Alonso arriving on a big contract was the loudest noise of all. The Polar Bear gives Baltimore a genuine middle-of-the-order presence that the offense sorely lacked in 2025. But his arrival also created a puzzle at first base that the front office has yet to fully solve.
Ryan Mountcastle is still on the roster, having agreed to a surprise $6.787M deal in January with a $7.5M club option for 2027. So is the 24-year-old Coby Mayo. And when you add in Samuel Basallo and Adley Rutschman — two bats this team very much wants in the lineup — you’re suddenly staring at five players who reasonably profile as either a first baseman or a designated hitter. Five is a lot. Especially when one is Alonso, whom the O’s signed specifically to play first and hit, and the others—Rutschman and Basallo—are considered franchise cornerstones, or future ones.
That doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for Mountcastle and Mayo to coexist comfortably.
A least a few observers find it curious that the Orioles haven’t moved either yet for the pitching help that still eludes this roster. It’s possible that Mounty is still around because the Orioles intended to package him and others for a top-flight starter like Framber Valdez, failed in this endeavor, and settled for Chris Bassitt instead.
Speaking for the front office, GM Mike Elias’s explanations have been cagey, to say the least. He told reporters this winter: “[I]t is never a problem if you have too many good bats. We saw last year how much depth a baseball team needs, and it’s more than ever, and we really like all these guys. … And we have designated hitter at-bats to go around for these players, too.”
But this doesn’t seem right, even with injuries keeping infield mainstays Jackson Holliday (hamate bone) and Jordan Westburg (oblique, UCL) off the Opening Day roster.
Imagine a hypothetical Opening Day roster with these 13 position players: catchers Rutschman and Basallo, infielders Mountcastle, Mayo, Alonso, Jeremiah Jackson and Gunnar Henderson, plus newly signed utility infielder Blaze Alexander to fill in for Holliday and Westburg, and finally outfielders Taylor Ward, Tyler O’Neill, Colton Cowser, Dylan Beavers and Leody Taveras. That’s still a lot of 1B/DH types, isn’t it.
Mayo is getting an opportunity at third base while Westburg is out. But keeping Mountcastle through arbitration felt like a holding pattern, not a plan, and still does.
Maybe one of them gets traded at some point before Opening Day. Maybe one of them breaks out this spring and forces a rethink. Maybe the answer is that someone gets hurt and the problem resolves itself in the most unwelcome way possible. For now, it’s one of the more interesting open questions in Birdland.
Feb 24, 2026; Port St. Lucie, Florida, USA; New York Mets third baseman Bo Bichette (19) plays his position against the Houston Astros during the third inning at Clover Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
Meet the Mets
The Mets tied the Astros 6-6 in a spring training game yesterday. Jack Wenninger started the game and threw two scoreless innings, but it was a game to forget for the Mets’ pitching staff with 13 walks given up in total. Mike Tauchman began his Mets tenure with a bang, launching a three-run home run in his first at-bat. Ronny Mauricio followed that with a solo home run of his own two batters later, and the Mets were up 4-0 before the first inning had concluded. Marcus Semien doubled and scored on a Bo Bichette sacrifice fly, and A.J. Ewing drove in the final Met run of the game on a sacrifice fly of his own in the sixth inning.
After Juan Soto declared that he wants to try and beat Shohei Ohtani and win his first MVP, Thomas Harrigan broke down how he could accomplish such a Herculean feat.
In search of a breaking ball he can trust against lefties, Clay Holmes might dust off his curve.
After speaking about how Pete Alonso might come to feel after leaving the Mets, Darryl Strawberry has now walked those comments back.
MLB Pipeline gave a sneak preview of some prospects making their teams upcoming top 30 lists, and a Mets pitching prospect is on the list.
Around the National League East
Chris Sale has signed another extension with the Braves, a one-year. $27 million contract for 2027 with a $30 million club option for 2028.
In other Braves news, the Braves have announced a new television network: Braves Vision.
Around Major League Baseball
MLB Pipeline has listed five prospects already impressing in spring training.
After Tarik Skubal announced he would only be pitching in one World Baseball Classic game, Paul Skenes upped the ante and announced he would pitch in two.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. made his declaration about a bold goal in his sights, and there are more stars that can attempt for big accomplishments this year.
Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue
Linda Surovich took a look at fast-rising Mets’ prospect Jacob Reimer, who is in the major league camp to start spring training.
Chris on Chris: (Chris) McShane delved into the fun catching prospect (Chris) Suero, who flies around the basepaths.
Brian Salvatore attempted to answer whether repeated Mets acquisition Kevin Herget can stick around in the Mets bullpen.
This Date in Mets History
Partial 1986 Met Ed Lynch is celebrating his 70th birthday today.
GLENDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 24: Gavin Stone #35 of the Los Angeles Dodgers delivers a pitch against the Cleveland Guardians during a spring training game at Camelback Ranch on February 24, 2026 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It had been 543 days since Gavin Stone last faced big league hitting, but on Tuesday he made his long-awaited return against the Cleveland Guardians.
Stone was only dealt one inning of work as he was handed the start, tossing 15 pitches while striking out a pair of hitters in a perfect first inning. Stone later spoke with Kirsten Watson of SportsNet LA about his return to the mound, as he will be one of a plethora of young options for the back end of the starting rotation.
“That was awesome,” said Stone during the second inning of Tuesday’s contest. “Considering the whole rehab process, how long it took, the surgery that I had, it was amazing to finally get back out there and do what I love doing.”
“I saw poise, I saw command of the fastball, I saw a really good changeup, and he just competes,” said Roberts. “Good to see Gavin back there.”
Links
Dalton Rushing understands his role as the main back-up to Will Smith. Although he still needs to adjust from playing everyday in the minor leagues to getting infrequent opportunities at the highest level, he is set on trying to contribute in whatever way helps this season, writes Sonja Chen of MLB.com.
“The word this year is ‘produce,'” Rushing said. “I just want to produce for this team, whatever way that is, whether it means putting down a bunt in the eighth to get a runner over, or it means to hit a go-ahead double. Come up big in big situations, whatever way it is. I just want to help this team win.”
It was quite the whirlwind of an offseason for outfielder Michael Siani. After finishing the 2025 season within the St. Louis Cardinals system, he was claimed off waivers by the Atlanta Braves at the start of the offseason, only to end up in a bidding war between the Dodgers and New York Yankees.
When the dust settled, Siani found himself at Camelback Ranch, and he is now looking to crack the Dodgers opening day roster. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes about Siani’s offseason, with the outfielder staying even keel after the flurry of moves involving his name.
“All 30 teams had a chance to grab me. Luckily, the Dodgers held on to me to this point. It gives you more motivation and makes you want to be successful… Listen – I signed up for it. This is what I want to do. It comes with it,” he said.
Chicago Cubs star outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong had some choice words to say about Dodgers fans and their supposed lack of devotion during games. Jerry Hairston Jr. was quick to retort, noting how home games are usually packed on a nightly basis.
“Yes, the Cubs fans are great fans. But do you know who’s better? The Dodgers fans. Dodgers sell out every single night— packed, loud— and it’s going to be loud. In late April the Cubbies are going to be coming to Chavez Ravine, and I’m sure Dodgers fans will ‘welcome’ PCA.”
ATLANTA — After riding the bench in Golden State, Jonathan Kuminga finally got a chance to shine for the Atlanta Hawks.
He sure made the most of it.
In his Atlanta debut on Tuesday, Kuminga threw down thunderous dunks, knocked down 3-pointers and spent much of the night smiling in a 119-98 rout of the Washington Wizards.
Jonathan Kuminga dunks the ball during the game against the Washington Wizards on February 24, 2026 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. NBAE via Getty Images
“It was great,” said Kuminga, who also had seven rebounds, four assists and two steals. “I was excited to be out there with the guys.”
The Hawks acquired Kuminga and guard Buddy Hield in a deal that sent center Kristaps Porzingis to the Golden State Warriors at the trade deadline.
Kuminga checked in off the Atlanta bench near the midway point of the first quarter and made an immediate impact against the woeful Wizards.
He dunked off a fast break — breaking into a big grin as he headed back up the court — and gave a tantalizing glimpse of his wide-ranging talents with a 3-pointer, four assists, two rebounds and a steal during his initial stint on the court.
Kuminga wound up playing nearly 24 1/2 minutes, taking on a bigger-than-expected role after Atlanta’s All-Star forward, Jalen Johnson, went down in the first quarter with a hip flexor injury and didn’t return.
“He connected with his teammates and let the game come to him,” coach Quin Snyder said of his new addition.
Kuminga missed his first six games with the Hawks, sandwiched around the All-Star break, while recovering from a left knee bone bruise sustained in his closing weeks with the Warriors.
The No. 7 overall pick in the 2021 draft, Kuminga was dropped from the rotation in Golden State and asked to be traded when his playing time dwindled.
The Hawks acquired Jonathan Kuminga at the trade deadline NBAE via Getty Images
At first, the Warriors indicated there weren’t a lot of teams showing interest. But the Hawks stepped forward as a trading partner, parting ways with Porzingis after he played just 17 games during his only season in Atlanta because of injuries and illness.
Kerr discounted any off-the-court issues with Kuminga, even though the 23-year-old from the Democratic Republic of the Congo played in just seven of his last 38 games with Golden State.
He started the season as a starter, averaging 12.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game during his limited time on the court.
Kuminga insisted that he wasn’t trying to send a message to the Warriors in his first appearance with the Hawks.
But he was clearly thrilled to be back on the court.
“Everybody has an opinion,” Kuminga said. “I really don’t play attention to what anyone else is saying. We’re trying to win as many games as we can here. That’s my main focus.”
DALLAS, TEXAS - JANUARY 17: Klay Thompson #31 of the Dallas Mavericks drives to the basket against Ace Bailey #19 of the Utah Jazz during the first half at American Airlines Center on January 17, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Coming into Tuesday’s NBA slate, the Dallas Mavericks (21-36) sat seventh from the bottom of the league standings. Just the Utah Jazz (18-40), the Washington Wizards (16-40), the New Orleans Pelicans (16-42), the Brooklyn Nets (15-42), the Indiana Pacers (15-43) and the sad Sacramento Kings (13-46) entered play with worse records than the Mavericks.
With a loaded 2026 NBA Draft class looming, all eyes in those markets are now firmly affixed upon the Tankathon standings, with visions of Dybantsa and Boozer dancing in fanbases’ heads. The Mavs may not have what it takes to get all the way to one of the top 2026 prospects, but the player available at the seventh overall pick this year may be more impactful than the second overall pick next year. Getting the seventh pick in this year’s draft would be a win.
But can the Mavericks’ tank gain any precious ground on any of the six teams ahead of them in the race to the bottom? That’s why they play the final 26 of the 82-game NBA season.
Dallas’ strength of schedule the rest of the way is 11th in the league. That’s a point in their favor for piling up more losses over the next month and a half. The fact that they came into Tuesday’s slate of games 3.5 games up on the Jazz, who sit at sixth in the Tankathon standings, and a full five games up on the Wizards in fifth, doesn’t bode as well. In fact, the Mavs came into play Tuesday just one game behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the eighth-worst record in the NBA, inching a step closer toward moving from seventh to the eighth-best lottery odds with their 123-114 win at the Brooklyn Nets.
The tank is losing ground at the moment, in light of the Mavs’ back-to-back wins at Brooklyn and Indiana.
Snapshot: Race to the bottom
Team
Record as of Feb. 24
Remaining SOS
Chicago Bulls
24-35
13th
Memphis Grizzlies
21-35
6th
Dallas Mavericks
21-36
11th
Utah Jazz
18-40
21st
New Orleans Pelicans
17-42
23rd
Washington Wizards
16-41
4th
Brooklyn Nets
15-42
10th
Indiana Pacers
15-43
5th
Sacramento Kings
13-46
29th
After a cursory glance at the remaining schedule, I’ve got the Mavericks going 7-18 in their final 25 games, for a painful 28-54 record when it’s all said and done. That’s based on six scheduled wins and a belief that Dallas, a true blind squirrel, will find one more nut somewhere along the way.
If that happens, the Jazz would have to go 10-14 in their final 24 to tie the Mavs in the standings and bring conference record into play to decide the lottery-odds tiebreaker, or 11-13 to pass Dallas. The Jazz have an easier path to wins the rest of the way with their remaining strength of schedule at 21st in the league, but hoping they go 11-13 down the stretch seems like a bit of a stretch at this point.
The Mavs and the Jazz have already played all four of their matchups this year, splitting the four games between them.
It’s the same story with the New Orleans Pelicans. They’ve got more scheduled wins left in their final 23 games than the Mavericks have in their last 24, but they’d have to go 11-12 to finish out the year to give the Mavs a legitimate shot to pass them in the Tankathon standings. It looks like it’s going to be more ground than Dallas can make up at this point. It would be even harder to catch Washington, and their tank is emboldened by the fourth-best remaining strength of schedule in the NBA the rest of the way.
It looks more likely that the Mavericks will stay at the seventh-best odds in the lottery. In fact, it’s more likely that they slide to eighth than move up to sixth.
There are a lot of variables in play here. The sheer will of each team’s tanking effort is one that’s hard to quantify here. The Mavs, for instance, have consistently played hard in the face of a losing season, forcing their way into clutch loss after clutch loss along the way. The Jazz, on the other hand, are more blatant with their tank in terms of roster management.
At this point, if the Mavs are going to gain any ground, it will likely come at Utah’s expense, but it’s hard to see that happening. If you squint hard, you could convince yourself that Utah has 10 wins left on the schedule, but bad teams find a way to lose. It’s what bad teams do. And the Jazz are very much a team that has decided to be bad.
Keep an eye on this space, though, Mavs fans, because if Dallas can rattle off losses to Sacramento and Memphis on Thursday and Friday, or even split those two games, they’ll still have a chance to sneak past Utah before the year is out. Those would be two very valuable losses.
Kansas Jayhawks guard Darryn Peterson (22) jogs back after making a three-pointer against Houston Cougars during the game inside Allen Fieldhouse on Monday, Feb. 23, 2026. | Evert Nelson/The Capital-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The 2026 NBA Draft is so good that it’s causing a moral crisis. There are nine teams in the tank race at the moment, and most of them feel like they’re putting out losing lineups on purpose with about 25 games to play in the season. This lottery will have huge stakes, and not just because there’s three potential No. 1 caliber prospects in BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Duke’s Cameron Boozer, and Kansas’ Darryn Peterson.
The Indiana Pacers could pull off the ideal gap year without Tyrese Haliburton by landing a premium young prospect … unless their pick lands outside the top-4, and then it goes to the Los Angeles Clippers in the Ivica Zubac trade. The Dallas Mavericks hit the lottery last year for Cooper Flagg, and now they need to land him a great teammate without control of their first-round pick from 2027-2030. The Utah Jazz better land in the top-8, otherwise their pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The 2026 NBA Draft lottery will happen on Sunday, May 10, and until then the league’s worst teams are jockeying for position to maximize their ping pong balls. Here’s our latest mock draft, with more analysis on this class after the table.
Pick
Team
Player
Position
School
Age
1
Sacramento Kings
Cameron Boozer
Forward
Duke
Freshman
2
Indiana Pacers
AJ Dybantsa
Wing
BYU
Freshman
3
Brooklyn Nets
Darryn Peterson
Guard
Kansas
Freshman
4
Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans)
Caleb Wilson
Forward
North Carolina
Freshman
5
Washington Wizards
Kingston Flemings
Guard
Houston
Freshman
6
Utah Jazz
Mikel Brown Jr.
Guard
Louisville
Freshman
7
Dallas Mavericks
Nate Ament
Wing
Tennessee
Freshman
8
Memphis Grizzlies
Dailyn Swain
Wing
Texas
Junior
9
Chicago Bulls
Patrick Ngongba
Center
Duke
Sophomore
10
Milwaukee Bucks
Yaxel Lendeborg
Forward
Michigan
Senior
11
Charlotte Hornets
Darius Acuff
Guard
Arkansas
Freshman
12
Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers)
Keaton Wagler
Guard
Illinois
Freshman
13
San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks)
Thomas Haugh
Forward
Florida
Junior
14
Portland Trail Blazers
Karim Lopez
Forward
NZ Breakers
Born 2007
15
Golden State Warriors
Hannes Steinbach
Forward/Center
Washington
Freshman
16
Miami Heat
Morez Johnson
Center/Forward
Michigan
Sophomore
17
Memphis Grizzlies (via Magic)
Jayden Quaintance
Center/Forward
Kentucky
Sophomore
18
Oklahoma City Thunder (via Sixers)
Cameron Carr
Wing
Baylor
Junior
19
Charlotte Hornets (via Suns)
Koa Peat
Forward
Arizona
Freshman
20
Toronto Raptors
Aday Mara
Center
Michigan
Junior
21
Detroit Pistons (via Wolves)
Braylon Mullins
Guard
UConn
Freshman
22
Los Angeles Lakers
Joshua Jefferson
Forward
Iowa State
Senior
23
Philadelphia 76ers (via Rockets)
Allen Graves
Forward
Santa Clara
Freshman
24
Denver Nuggets
Labaron Philon
Guard
Alabama
Sophomore
25
Atlanta Hawks (via Cavs)
Bennett Stirtz
Guard
Iowa
Senior
26
New York Knicks
Chris Cenac
Center
Houston
Freshman
27
Boston Celtics
Flory Bidunga
Center
Kansas
Sophomore
28
Cleveland Cavaliers (via Spurs)
Tyler Tanner
Guard
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
29
Dallas Mavericks (via OKC)
Tounde Yessoufou
Guard
Baylor
Freshman
30
Minnesota Timberwolves (via Pistons)
Amari Allen
Wing
Alabama
Freshman
Let’s dive into the biggest themes from this class over the last few weeks.
Ranking Boozer, Peterson, and Dybantsa in the top-3
There’s some movement on my personal board since I published a mid-season update at the start of the month. Here’s how I’d rank the ‘big three’ of the 2026 NBA Draft:
Cameron Boozer, F, Duke: The simple case for Boozer over Peterson and Dybantsa is that he’s the most productive and most versatile of the three while also being the youngest. It’s no coincidence that Boozer’s teams have won at the highest level in every setting: he positively impacts the game in so many ways without taking much off the table. At 6’9, 250 pounds, he can initiate a pick-and-roll like a guard, set a mean screen and make plays on the short roll as a big, pound the offensive glass, punish switches on the drive with his strength, or rip a catch-and-shoot three from deep. It’s understandable to question Boozer’s athletic fluidity, ability to finish over length, or high-level defensive impact, but he’s solid enough in those areas while shining basically everywhere else. If Boozer doesn’t pass your “eye test,” then your eye test probably sucks. I’ve always thought Boozer vs. Cooper Flagg is a better question than Boozer vs. Dybantsa or Peterson, and that continues to be true as he nears the stretch run of his one-and-done season.
A.J. Dybantsa, F, BYU: Dybantsa has been third on my board since the summer, but his strong Feb. combined with Peterson’s poor performance in conference play has elevated him to No. 2 for me for the first time. The BYU freshman is the prototypical big wing scorer NBA teams covet with a rare mix of length (7’1 wingspan), fluidity, and explosion. Dybantsa is a gifted driver with tight handles, impressive bend to turn the corner against defenders, and crazy stride length. His three-point volume has been underwhelming thus far, but otherwise he’s the total package as a scorer. I’m a bit skeptical of Dybantsa’s ability to impact the game in areas other than scoring. His playmaking has been surprisingly impressive thus far, but I wonder if some of that is due to BYU’s pristine system. His defense has been subpar, he’s only average as a rebounder, and he can have turnover problems. Ultimately, Dybantsa feels a clear step ahead of similar prospects like Brandon Miller and Ace Bailey in recent drafts because he’s more well-rounded as a scorer, but I wouldn’t put him in the Cooper Flagg/Jayson Tatum tier because he’s not as good at doing the dirty work.
Darryn Peterson, G, Kansas: Peterson washed Dybantsa at a high school level, and was so impressive as a senior that I briefly considered putting him over Boozer. The best version of Peterson would be a special guard prospect who can efficiently play a high-usage on-ball role while also being a knockdown shooter as an off-ball threat zooming around screens while also making a big impact defensively. The problem is that we haven’t seen Peterson’s best all year because of a bizarre set of injury issues that have limited his explosiveness at both ends. Peterson just isn’t getting into the paint off the bounce or jumping the passing lanes like he was expected to, but to his credit he’s still been a high-volume scorer on good efficiency. His shot-making has looked better than expected at Kansas, and if you believe his hamstring strain and cramping eventually resolve themselves, there’s still a case for him at No. 1. Peterson appeared to be the mainstream favorite to go No. 1 entering the year. Are we overreacting to a small sample by an injured player by dropping him to No. 3? It takes a leap of faith and heavy reliance on prior production to put Peterson over Boozer and Dybantsa, and I just don’t have the risk tolerance for that right now.
Mikel Brown Jr. makes it a strong top-6
Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. has been considered a potential top-10 pick dating back to preseason. Two things slowed his momentum earlier in the season: a) a pesky back injury that kept him sidelined for an eight-game stretch, and b) an extended shooting slump. For his first 12 games this season, Brown was only shooting 27 percent from three, which was way below where he was expected to be. Over his last eight games, Brown has now made 32-of-83 (38.5 percent), which is more in line with his reputation.
No freshman EVER has more 3PM over a five-game stretch than Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr., with 27 3PM (!) in his last 5.
This level of shotmaking prowess (16.5 3PA/100 + 54% 3P) is truly unprecedented. pic.twitter.com/LyEApXsmRh
Pull-up shooting is a big part of what makes Brown such an appealing potential offensive engine. The Louisville guard bombs away from deep with 14.5 three-point attempts per 100 possessions, which is just a fraction below Peterson for tops in the class among likely first-round picks. Of the 71 players in DI taking at least 14.5 threes per 100, no player has a higher free throw rate than Brown’s 46 percent. Add in a 30 percent assist rate, and the picture of Brown as a lead guard comes into focus: he pumps out a ton of threes, he consistently gets to the foul line with his attacking off the dribble, and he has good playmaking vision to kick out to teammates when the defense collapses on him.
It’s fair to wonder how else Brown can impact the game. He has only one offensive rebound in his first 20 games this season. His stock rate of 2.9 percent is underwhelming. His turnovers have been an issue all year, including six against Baylor and seven against SMU in back-to-back games earlier this month. Age can be a knock too, as Brown will turn 20 during Final Four weekend, and is six months older than Jeremiah Fears, the stud one-and-done point guard in last year’s draft.
I like the shooting/passing/foul-drawing package from Brown enough to solidify him as the No. 6 overall prospect in the class. If he really turns it on in the home stretch, he can challenge Houston’s Kingston Flemings for the top point guard in the class.
The late lottery feels like a hornets’ nest
Why is this considered such a strong NBA draft class? Mostly because it has three potential No. 1 overall picks at the top, and then really good prospects at 4-6. After that, I think it gets really dicey.
I wouldn’t want to be picking in the back-half of this lottery. Here’s how ESPN’s Jeremy Woo, probably the most sourced reporter covering the draft, ranked the 6-11 range: Keaton Wagler, Darius Acuff, Nate Ament, Mikel Brown Jr., Karim Lopez, Thomas Haugh. While I can see the vision with a lot of these players, I would feel serious hesitation using a top-11 pick on them outside of the aforementioned Brown.
Darius Acuff pull-up dagger three to send Arkansas-Alabama to overtime. He's got 41 points at the end of regulation pic.twitter.com/EV8FUKdpdl
To my knowledge, there’s never been a 6’6+ one-and-done lottery pick to finish a season with zero dunks, and Wagler is in line to do that so far. His athletic limitations also show up in his low steal rate, but it’s fair to point out that Illinois’ system suppresses steals as they rank dead-last in DI in takeaway percentage. Wagler has made up for it by being a nuclear off-the-dribble shooter who cooks especially hard against bigs on switches. Is that really a sustainable way to live in the NBA for a top-10 pick, though? Acuff has been remarkably productive for Arkansas, but I’m worried about his defense, rebounding, and mid-range heavy shot profile. Ament has been killing it lately as a tall and skinny wing, but his finishing, shooting, and defensive playmaking are so poor that he feels mostly like a theoretical player to me. Lopez is a skilled and strong ball handler at 6’9, but I’m worried about his outside shooting and defense. Haugh is a decent connective wing, but I don’t think his defense is special, and it feels like he would be the lowest usage player in most five-man NBA lineups.
Maybe I’m wrong and Wagler will be a cross between SGA and Haliburton, Acuff becomes Gen Z Stephon Marbury, Haugh turns into a star role player, and Ament refines his skills and becomes an ideal modern wing. It could all happen. I just don’t think the second-half of the lottery plays into the narrative that this is a super strong draft.
Give me 10 underrated prospects in the 2026 NBA Draft
Don’t twist my arm! Here’s some guys I’m higher on than consensus with some brief scouting reports.
There is so much to unpack with Swain's game. He's a hyper efficient 2pt scorer, shooting 65.9% inside the arc with nearly 85% of his attempts unassisted.… pic.twitter.com/pg5au45n0o
Hannes Steinbach, F, Washington: Elite offensive rebounder who catches and finishes everything inside and shines in transition.
Aday Mara, C, Michigan: Massive center (7’3 with 7’7 wingspan) who can defend the rim in drop coverage and also throws some absurdly great outlet passes.
Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas: Knockdown three-point shooter who limits mistakes as a passer and ball handler.
Joshua Jefferson, F, Iowa State: Mack truck forward who rebounds, defends, and can make some awesome passes off the bounce.
Flory Bidunga, C, Kansas: Athletic center who can protect the rim and finish lobs.
Which picks do you love and hate?
Conference tournaments are about to be in full swing, and then it’s time for the big dance. March Madness is the best, and it’s going to be even better this year with such a loaded draft class on display.
What picks did I totally blow it on? What picks did you love? Sound off in the comments.
