One of the biggest pressure points facing the Phoenix Suns this offseason is what to do with Mark Williams. He gave Phoenix 60 games this past season and showed exactly why the organization targeted him in the first place. The rim running, the rim deterrence defensively, the athleticism, and the motor. All of those traits were clear positives for a franchise that historically has spent years trying to stabilize the center position.
Restricted free agency is at the doorstep, and with the Suns also trying to retain key pieces from an unexpectedly successful team, Williams becomes one of the more important leverage points of the offseason. His qualifying offer sits at $9.6 million, which on the surface doesn’t feel overwhelming. Once you begin stacking on the other financial realities though (dead money, luxury tax concerns, apron implications), the conversation becomes a lot more complicated.
That’s what made Bobby Marks of ESPN calling Williams the fifth-best restricted free agent this summer such an interesting note.
Per Marks:
At $17 million below the luxury tax and $25 million below the first apron, the Suns are walking a financial tightrope with free agents Collin Gillespie, Jordan Goodwin and Williams.
Williams’ durability issues plagued the first three seasons of his career, in which he sat out 116 games because of back, foot and thumb injuries.
In his first season with Phoenix, Williams sat out 10 games because of a stress reaction in his left foot but still played a career-high 60 games. (Because of the foot injury, Williams did not appear in the Suns’ first-round playoff loss.)
Williams ranked in the top 20 in offensive rebounds per game and played a significant role in Phoenix’s jump from 26th to sixth in second-chance points this season. The Suns were plus-8.5 points per 100 possessions when Williams was on the court with Gillespie, Devin Booker, Dillon Brooks and Royce O’Neale.
Marks projected Williams at three years and $42 million, stating, “The contract would start at $13 million and increase to $15 million in the third season. The first year is $2 million less than the non-tax midlevel exception.”
I’ll start with this. If he’s viewed nationally as the fifth-best restricted free agent available regardless of position, there’s real value attached to that. Marks also identified the Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, and Chicago Bulls as logical fits, which naturally creates the possibility that another team helps drive up his market. That matters for Phoenix.
If the number climbs too high, the Suns could ultimately decide to walk away. Or they could work with another team on a sign-and-trade. A deal in the neighborhood of three years, $42 million honestly feels pretty close to what I expected Williams to land based on last season. The injury concerns will always be part of the equation, and they’re likely the biggest reason he won’t command something even larger. At the same time, for a team trying to balance winning now with eventually increasing Khaman Maluach’s role, this kind of contract makes sense as a bridge.
If Maluach needs more time, you’ve bought yourself a clean three-year runway. If he develops faster than expected, then Williams either becomes valuable depth on a fair contract or a tradable asset you can use to strengthen another area of the roster. From a pure basketball standpoint, I think it’s a very reasonable price. The complication, as always, is financial.
If Phoenix is comfortable paying into the luxury tax, bringing him back at that number feels pretty straightforward. If ownership is serious about avoiding the tax line, then this conversation becomes far more interesting and potentially a lot harder.
That’s really what makes Mark Williams one of the defining offseason decisions for Phoenix. On the floor, the fit makes sense. The timeline makes sense. Even the contract projection feels reasonable when viewed through a basketball lens.
The challenge is that the Suns rarely get to make decisions in a vacuum anymore. Every move connects to three others. Retaining Williams impacts what you can do with Collin Gillespie. It impacts overall roster flexibility. It impacts how aggressively you navigate the margins of the tax and how much patience you can afford with younger players.
That’s why this feels bigger than simply deciding whether Williams is worth $14 million a year. He probably is. The harder question is whether Phoenix can make that commitment and still maintain the roster balance and flexibility needed to keep building on what they started last season.
Knicks
Cavaliers