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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is swinging a hit bat right now, and my Blue Jays vs. Angels predictions expect him to remain hot tonight in a plus-matchup against Jack Kochanowicz.

Find out more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, April 21. 

Blue Jays vs Angels predictions

Blue Jays vs Angels best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O 1.5 total bases (+110)

You’re getting great value on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +110 to go Over his bases total tonight. 

He has been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball this season, batting .354, the second-highest average in the majors. 

Vladdy is also currently riding an 11-game hitting streak, averaging 2.54 bases per contest in that stretch. 

Additionally, Guerrero Jr. has faced Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz three times in his career, going 2-for-3 against him.

Kochanowicz primarily uses his sinker against right-handed batters with a 43% usage. That’ll be dangerous against Vladdy, who owns a .444 average against the pitch with a 56% hard-hit rate. 

COVERS INTEL: Guerrero Jr. owns a 1.136 OPS during this current 11-game hitting streak. 

Blue Jays vs Angels same-game parlay (SGP)

I’ll continue to bank on the Toronto Blue Jays’ offense remaining hot and take the suddenly surging Nathan Luke’s to keep swinging the bat well by taking Over 0.5 hits. After an abysmal start, Luke’s has totalled eight hits while on a current four-game hitting streak. He is also 1-for-2 against Kochanowicz in his career.

For the last leg of the SGP, I’ll take Over 1.5 walks for Kochanowicz. The Los Angeles Angels righty has struggled right he zone this season, going Over the total in each of his four starts. He is also averaging 3.75 walks per game this season, which ranks in the 13th percentile in walk-rate among all pitchers.

Blue Jays vs Angels SGP

• Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
• Lukes Over 0.5 hits 
• Kochanowicz Over 1.5 walks

Blue Jays vs Angels home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+600)

I’ll make this a half-unit wager.

Kochanowicz is a ground-ball pitcher who doesn’t give up many homers — just one on the year. 

However, Guerrero Jr. has been known to hit his homers in bunches, so I’ll bet on him getting another one tonight in Angel Stadium after going yard last night. 

Additionally, Vladdy does seem to torture sinker ballers. He has a 56.6% hard-hit rate against the pitch this season, while posting a .532 slug-rate against it in 2025.

Blue Jays vs Angels odds

• Moneyline: Toronto +101 | Los Angeles -110
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-200) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9

Blue Jays vs Angels trend

The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Angels.

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Once again this spring, 25-year-old Keider Montero found himself on the outside of the Detroit Tigers starting rotation. Justin Verlander’s hip injury opened up an opportunity, and so far Montero is running with it to a degree we haven’t seen from him in his two-year major league career. Three starts isn’t enough to say anything has truly changed for him, but there are a few interesting developments to keep an eye on as he seems in line to get at least 2 or 3 more starts before Verlander might be ready to return.

The result have certainly been good. Through 18 1/3 innings and three starts, which is really nice volume of innings in the first place, Montero holds a 3.31 ERA with a 1.66 FIP to back it up. The first key to that success is Montero’s walk rate. The right-hander has walked just 3.2 percent of hitters faced. He always throwns a really good volume of first pitch strikes, which certainly helps, and he’s doing so again this season at 65.1 percent first pitch strikes. That’s pretty standard for Montero but it does put him in a good position to succeed rather than falling behind hitters. League average first pitch strike rate is 60.5 percent. Montero is throwing three percent more strikes than last year overall, and so far he’s done so without getting hit hard. He’s yet to allow a home run. That will change, but it’s still a positive step that he’s been able to attack the zone a little more without retribution from hitters.

If there’s a reason he’s throwing more strikes beyond simply repeating his delivery better and rebounding after a poor sequence, all marks of a maturing starting pitcher, it’s that he’s throwing more fastballs overall. Obviously, for most pitchers fastballs are the easiest pitches to spot around the strike zone. Montero has so far used 33.2 percent fourseam fastballs and 25.7 percent sinkers. Overall that’s about 8 percent more fastballs than he was throwing last season and his velocity is up almost a half a mile per hour on average, despite the cooler weather he’s dealt with overall by making all three starts at home in Comerica Park.

There’s nothing significantly different about either fastball type this season. As we saw in the spring, Montero can reach back for 97 and even 98 here and there when he wants it, but he’s largely stayed within himself, spotted fastballs well and avoided damage. That’s a good recipe for success in terms of avoiding walks and being efficient, but without a true plus or better heater, it can also lead to more home runs allowed.

We’ll have to see if this is more than early season strategy. In a bigger park in generally cool spring weather, it’s harder to hit the ball out of the park and Montero has taken advantage by attacking the zone and forcing opposing hitters to swing the bat. So far they haven’t been able to make him pay for that approach, but that could change as the weather warms up. It’s a fairly standard cold weather strategy as gripping breaking balls and changeups is trickier in cool conditions. Hitters may eventually get to the fastball, but it’s just as likely that Chris Fetter will adjust Montero’s pitch mix as the weather improves. So early in the year, all these things are moving targets and it’s hard to take too much from usage changes so soon. It’s likely this is just taking advantage of the weather to attack with a little more impunity that Montero will have when it’s 85 degrees this summer.

Another notable change to his pitch mix early on is throwing less sliders and more changeups. He threw 22 percent sliders in 2025, and only 11.1 percent sliders so far this season. He gave up 7 homers and a .667 slug against the slide piece last season, so it certainly makes sense to use it less, particularly as he still has his knuckle curve to work with. Montero really doesn’t get that many whiffs, particularly to the degree stuff metrics might suggest on the breaking stuff. His strikeout rate is up from 18.5 percent last year, including relief appearances, to 23.5 percent early on. He’s not getting more swing and miss, but he is pounding the edges a little more effective with his two fastball types, while throwing a more even mix of sliders, knuckle curves, and changeups. His ability to lean into the fastballs more and cut usage of the breaking stuff has made both breaking balls more effective so far. We’ll have to see if that lasts if the fourseamer and sinker start to get hit harder.

One minor development that might help prevent that is the better depth Montero is getting on his split changeup. He’s getting two inches more drop on it than he did last year, and his whiff rate is up from 21.1 percent to 33.3 percent. He’s also shown some willingness to use it against right-handers instead of exclusively to lefties. That’s particularly good to note, as he’s also throwing it 4.5 percent of the time. He’s using his fastballs and changeups more, and trimming back the breaking balls more to use to steal strikes, and as chase pitches only once he’s ahead in counts. Again, the question is whether he can get away with throwing more fastballs as the weather improves. The lynchpin to making this approach work is likely the changeup, so we’ll hope he sustains improvement with that pitch in particular.

Overall, there are no signs of a major breakout here, but there are certainly hints of a more mature pitcher who is locating more consistently and recovering faster when he gets out of sync or makes a bad pitch. There’s no new pitch or a big velocity bump. No arm angle adjustment or big change in spin profile on a pitch. Command improvements take more time to buy into, and he may just be throwing the changeup a little more because of the specifics lineups and conditions he’s faced early on.

Right now, he’s just getting more out of his stuff and showing confidence in the two fastball types and the fact that neither was hit all that hard last year. The hope would be that with the fourseam and sinker better established and Montero throwing more strikes overall, hitters reading that scouting report may start swinging more aggressively, knowing that he’s going to attack with fastballs. Once you put that in their heads, the secondary stuff may be more effective overall, but especially in terms of drawing whiffs against hitters expecting more fastballs.

It’s always a cat and mouse game, and pitching coaches Chris Fetter and Robin Lund, along with catchers Dillon Dingler and Jake Rogers, play it well. But unfortunately there’s no sign of a real improvement in any individual pitch, other than simply more consistency. That may be enough to make Montero a more legitimate mid-rotation level starting pitcher. But it will take a lot more starts to prove out whether these are signs of a pitcher in better command of his game, or just a pitcher taking advantage of April weather to attack more, knowing that it’s harder for hitters to do damage in chilly early spring conditions.

The Yankees entered their recent series against the Royals needing a serious shift in momentum. They were 2-7 in their previous nine games — a stretch which saw them get one-hit by the Rays, fail to score for 17 straight innings, and surrender 13 home runs and 32 runs total in four games against the Angels. In the final series of the home stand, it became imperative that they turn their ship around before heading out on the road.

That’s just what transpired, the Yankees sweeping the Royals in a much needed laugher series to reduce stress levels and restore confidence. It could have been a different story, Camilo Doval squandering the Yankees’ 2-1 lead by giving up the game-tying home run in the top of the eighth inning of the series opener. That left the Bombers looking for heroics from the impotent bottom of their batting order, somehow finding themselves in the situation of needing to call on Ryan McMahon as a pinch-hitter with two outs — a man whose bat had gone so cold that he was benched for Amed Rosario despite the right-handed Michael Wacha having made the start for the Royals.

We join McMahon with two outs in the eighth, Aaron Boone having inserted him into the game as a defensive replacement for Rosario in the top half of the inning. Ben Rice is on first after his two-out single kept the inning alive against hard-throwing reliever Alex Lange. Lange was once one of the hottest commodities on the reliever market in his first few seasons with the Tigers before injuries sapped his effectiveness and eventually led to his DFA. His fastball used to touch triple digits, and while it has fallen off from those heights, he can still dial it up to the upper-90s. He begins this encounter with a four-seamer at 96 mph.

This is a well-executed heater on the corner up and away. McMahon takes it for called strike one and it’s a good thing he did. As we’ll discuss below, McMahon has a very narrow range of pitch locations that he’s able to make solid contact. Up and away is most certainly not one of those areas, so despite this pitch being in the zone, it is absolutely not one McMahon should be swinging at first pitch.

After watching McMahon take the previous pitch, Lange looks to tunnel a knuckle curve down a similar chute, hoping to either steal another called strike low and away or maybe even induce a chase and whiff.

Once again, McMahon is taking all the way. The pitch is a ball out of Lange’s hand and never looks like a strike during its path to home, making for a pretty straightforward but still decent take from McMahon considering it lands just inches from the corner.

Now that he has shown McMahon two straight pitches away, Lange has him set up to potentially chase a changeup off the plate down and away.

Instead, he spikes this pitch into the dirt on the other side of home plate than he was intending. In a sense, he lets McMahon off the hook here with this automatic take.

Despite showing McMahon the movement profile of the changeup on a non-competitive pitch, Lange makes the curious decision to double up on the pitch.

McMahon gets the off-speed mistake right in his wheelhouse and doesn’t miss, sending it to the opposite field just over the wall in left for the go-ahead, two-run home run, the first extra-base hit of his season. It’s a bizarre pitch selection — McMahon has serious contact issues against high-velocity elevated fastballs and breaking balls below the zone, so he’s certainly not complaining about getting just about the only pitch he can hit in this situation.

Here’s the full AB:

It’s no secret how much McMahon has struggled to begin the year. Among all hitters with at least 50 plate appearances entering play Monday, McMahon’s .130 average ranked third worst, while his 53 wRC+, 32.1-percent strikeout rate, and and 34-percent whiff rate all rank him well into the bottom 15-percent league-wide. I fear that without fundamental changes to his swing mechanics, we can expect more of the same going forward, McMahon under contract this season and next at $16 million a year.

His extreme uppercut swing is aimed toward pulling the ball in the air. However, those mechanics mean he is only able to make contact with pitches below belt-level — the irony being that while his goal is to lift the ball, the only pitches he can hit are the hardest to lift in the air! There’s a very narrow sweet-spot about thigh-high and middle of the plate where he can do damage, and fortunately Lange threw him a pitch exactly in that area. The goal therefore for McMahon is to maximize damage on the few occasions when he sees a pitch like the one Lange threw, and fortunately for the Yankees, McMahon didn’t miss this time.

With each gruesome loss, the bleakness of their situation increases.

You can see it in the numbers. After Monday night’s 5-1 loss to the Cubs, the Phillies are 8-14. They have had a similar, or worse, record a number of times in their long and storied franchise history, and the trends do not portent good tidings.

Generally speaking, bad teams begin a season 8-14. The record usually reflects the talent level of the team. But this Phillies team was expected to reach the postseason once again in 2026. They began the season as one of the National League teams most likely to reach the World Series. They have a payroll approaching $300 million.

And yet, here they sit, keeping company with some of the worst squads in franchise history.

If the Phillies finish with a losing record, like in 25 of the 26 instances listed above, they will not reach the postseason. But prior to the three wild card era that began in 2022, most of the teams listed above knew their seasons were over before April ended. The incentive to play hard, pursue mid-season trades and push for a playoff berth would have been foolish prior to the wild card era, let alone a time when six teams in each league, not 2 or 4, reach the postseason.

Last year, the Cincinnati Reds earned the third wild card with an 83-79 record, while the Tigers took the final wild card with an 87-75 mark. In 2024, it took 89 wins for anyone to earn entry in the NL, while the 86-win Tigers and Royals got the final spots. In ‘23, the Marlins and Diamondbacks each made the playoffs with 84 wins, with Arizona advancing all the way to the World Series, and in ‘22, your very own Philadelphia Phillies snuck into the postseason and went on a breathtaking run after a dreadful April and sputtering September that netted 87 victories during the regular season.

Let’s say it will take 86 wins for the Phillies to reach the playoffs. In order to get there, they would need to go 78-70 the rest of the way. It is not at all unreasonable to think this team can play 8 games over .500 the rest of the way. To get to 90 wins, they need to finish with an 82-66 record. That’s 14 games over .500 over the season’s final five-plus months. Again, far from impossible.

It’s difficult to envision this team going on a run like that right now.

It’s entirely possible that, like the 2012 Phillies, this particular group has reached its end point. It’s possible that, like the 1979 Phillies, it’s simply more of a setback season in which nothing is going to go right. It’s also possible that, like ‘22, the Phillies will stumble to a 22-29 start, replace their manager, and go on another tear.

All of those options seem equally likely.

But as MLB.com noted late last year, other teams have started as slowly, if not slower, and reached the October tournament.

First 25 Games:

Division winners
7-18: 2024 Astros (finished 88-73)
9-16: 2015 Rangers (finished 88-74)
9-16: 2006 Twins (finished 96-66)
10-15: 2006 Padres (finished 88-74)
10-15: 2005 Yankees (finished 95-67)
Seven division winners have started 11-14

Wild Card winners
8-17: 2001 Athletics (finished 102-60)
10-15: 2014 Pirates (finished 88-74)
10-15: 2009 Rockies (finished 92-70)
10-15: 2007 Rockies (finished 90-73)*
10 Wild Card winners have started 11-14

These types of finishes were almost impossible prior to the wild card era in 1995, when four teams in each league reached the postseason. Through 1993, only two teams from each league, division winners of the four divisions, went to the playoffs.

This isn’t to say fans shouldn’t be concerned. The Phillies are playing some awful baseball right now, and there are no signs of a breakthrough. But while their Fangraphs playoff odds have understandably fallen over the last week, especially their chances of winning the NL East (12.4%), they are still being given a 45.0% chance of making the playoffs. Those are the 6th-best odds of any team in the NL, which would, you guessed it, place them in the No. 3 wild card spot.

All that’s difficult to swallow when they’re sporting a -42 run differential that is by far the worst in baseball (Royals -34 are 2nd-worst). Everyone should be prepared for a very different summer than the ones we’ve experienced over the last few years. History is not kind to Phils teams that have started like this.

But this is a different era of baseball, when slow starts to not automatically sink a team’s chances. The Phillies can wait this out, get hot, and still reasonably believe their playoff chances are not sunk.

It’s just not likely.

In New York, Marcus Semien is batting .234 with an adjusted OPS of 73.

In Arlington, Texas, Brandon Nimmo has four home runs, a .311 batting average and a .908 OPS.

In New York, Devin Williams just blew a save to extend the Mets’ losing streak to 11 and is clocking a 7.11 ERA.

In Baltimore, Ryan Helsley is 6-for-6 in save opportunities and is striking out 35% of the batters he’s faced.

In New York, Carson Benge has looked overmatched and not ready for prime time, with a .229 on-base percentage, a 26 adjusted OPS and 18 strikeouts in 70 plate appearances.

In Detroit and St. Louis and Cleveland, Kevin McGonigle, JJ Wetherholt and Chase DeLauter are making the leap to the major leagues look simple.

See where this is going?

The small-minded among us are wondering whether it’s time for Carlos Mendoza to pay for this debacle of a Mets season with his job. Fair to wonder, we suppose, but also beside the point.

Because right now, virtually every button pushed this winter – trading Nimmo for Semien, Helsley’s New York failures begetting Williams’ arrival, Benge handed an outfield job on Opening Day - has turned nuclear during this 7-15 start.

The manager? That’s largely beside the point.

Mendoza can’t hit for those guys, cannot resurrect Jorge Polanco off the injured list, and perhaps doesn’t have the time to await water finding its level and the club’s performance tilting closer to “expected.”

Sure, maybe he should’ve intentionally walked Nico Hoerner in the 10th inning of their 11th consecutive loss. Yet as great and valued as Hoerner is, this isn’t exactly “why did he pitch to Barry Bonds?” territory.

No, this club’s composition is squarely on president David Stearns’ shoulders and to be fair, the jury is still very much out on the group.

While the big league club had an up and down week, it was all sunshine and roses down on the farm. Nats prospects were absolutely killing it last week. There were so many guys producing that I probably won’t be able to give all of them the shine they deserve here. Of the 20 prospects on Baseball America’s weekly hot sheet, five of them were Nats prospects.

The crazy thing is that there are still a few Nats prospects who arguably got snubbed here. Coy James hit his first two pro homers, Landon Harmon fired five scoreless innings, Ethan Petry put up monster numbers and Cayden Wallace continued raking. Yet, none of those guys were able to make the cut.

They probably should have, but whoever was making the list probably did not want half the players to come from one team. It was the most productive week in the minor leagues that I can remember. The hitting development in this organization has taken a massive step forward under Paul Toboni. From the Fred Nats to the real Nats, you can see the improvements.

In my opinion, no player has improved more at the plate than Seaver King. The turning point for him seemed to be the Arizona Fall League, but it has carried over. Right now, he is hitting .286 with a .992 OPS in Double A. Last season, he posted a .600 OPS in 80 Double-A games. In 14 games, he has homered just as many times in Harrisburg as he did all of last season. Last week, he had a two-homer game.

The biggest change for King is that he is swinging way less. That has predictably led to way more walks. He has 15 walks to just 16 strikeouts. Last year in AA, he had 23 walks and 74 strikeouts. In 2025, he swung at over 53% of pitches, but that number has dropped to 36.8% this year. 

That number is a bit lower than you would like, but it is clear he has a plan of attack now. He is only going to swing at pitches he can do damage with. Eventually, this approach will be attacked and he will have to find a happy medium. For context, that 36.8% swing rate is lower than James Wood’s swing rate, and Wood is a guy who many nitpick for not swinging enough.

This more selective version of King is producing much better results, and landed him a place on the hot sheet. If he keeps hitting like this, a promotion to Triple-A could come soon. There is a chance he could make his MLB debut this year if he keeps performing. The Nats could use a second baseman with an offensive punch.

Another infielder performing well is Ronny Cruz. Ever since Spring Training, his name has been on the tip of people’s tongues. He is emerging as a breakout prospect and a real coup for the Nats. They acquired Cruz as part of the Michael Soroka trade last July.

He spent all of last season in rookie ball, but he absolutely lit it up in Low-A to start the season. Cruz posted a .333 average and 1.087 OPS. He is a power speed threat, who has 7 extra base hits already. Cruz also stole 12 bases just last week. That production was enough to secure him a promotion to High-A despite only 14 career games above rookie ball.

This aggressive promotion shows how much faith the Nats have in Cruz. He has been a guy the organization has been absolutely raving about. They think they have unearthed a hidden gem here. Right now, he is the Nats 25th ranked prospect, but that will not be the case for long.

Speaking of players who could be in line for a promotion, Yeremy Cabrera should not be with the Fred Nats for much longer. After posting solid, but not elite numbers in Low-A for the Rangers last year, the Nats had Cabrera repeat the level. For guys who are repeating levels, you want to see big numbers. 

Cabrera has certainly put up big numbers to start the season. In 13 games, the 20 year old is hitting .362 with a 1.223 OPS. This just looks like a player who is too good for the level he is playing at right now. He was considered a smaller piece in the Gore trade, but Cabrera has emerged as a name to watch.

Yeremy Cabrera seems like a well rounded outfield prospect with a complete game. He is well regarded as a defender in center field, and the offensive numbers speak for themselves. How the offense translates is still the question mark, but he is off to a great start. While neither his hit or power tools are elite, they show quality flashes. I am excited to see what he can do in Wilmington.

King, Cruz and Cabrera had the best weeks, but there were other names on the hot sheet. Eli Willits got off to a slow start, but he had a big week, hitting his first two pro homers. One was an inside the parker, but the other one was a well struck opposite field bomb. He hit the ball with more authority this past week and got his OPS up to .773. We know Willits is a great defender, with a phenomenal approach and good speed. The question with him is how much power is there. This week was a positive step in answering that question. 

The last guy on the list was flame thrower Miguel Sime. He was the Nats 4th round pick last year and stands out for his triple digit velocity. In Sime’s three starts, we have seen the complete package, both good and bad. His first and third starts were electric, with the big righty striking out 15 and walking just two in those outings. However, in his other start, he only went two innings and walked six batters.

When Sime is on, he is electric, but when he is off, he just can’t find the zone. He is strikingly similar to Jarlin Susana at the same age. Both are big burly righties who throw gas, but have control issues. However, for both of them, the control issues don’t occur every time out. Some nights, they are pounding the zone, but when they don’t have it, things get ugly.

Overall, the Nats minor league seasons have gotten off to as good of a start as you could ask for. Most of the Nats breakout guys are emerging, and the 2025 draft class has a chance to be a special group. While 2026 could be a long year for the big league team, the future of the Nats is sprouting in the minor leagues.

Dave Roberts took exception to comments from Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell on Monday about a rule that makes Shohei Ohtani an exception.

“He’s an exception because he’s an exceptional player," the Dodgers manager told reporters after his team's 12-3 victory against the Colorado Rockies.

Addressing the rash of injuries to Cubs pitchers and whether teams should have more roster flexibility than the rules currently allow, Counsell questioned the fairness of the MLB rule that allows Ohtani to be excluded from the 13-pitcher roster maximum because he is a two-way player.

“There’s not another player like that, but one team gets different rules for that player,” Counsell told reporters.

MLB rosters are capped at 26 players, up to 13 of whom can be designated as pitchers. Players designated as position players are not allowed to pitch unless a game is in extra innings or there is at least a six-run differential in the score when they take the mound.

Read more:Max Muncy and Dalton Rushing each homer twice in Dodgers' 15-hit, blowout win

Teams can also designate two-way players — players who are both position players and pitchers — if they meet certain criteria: In the previous season they must have pitched at least 20 major league innings and started at least 20 major league games as a position player or designated hitter, with at least three plate appearances in each of those games.

Ohtani, who won most valuable player awards in four of the last five seasons, is the lone two-way player. Counsell termed the rule "bizarre."

"There’s one team that’s allowed to carry basically one of both, and that he gets special consideration," he said. "Which is probably the most bizarre rule.”

Roberts offered a pointed rebuttal.

“It certainly benefits us, because we have the player," he said. "But that’s something that, any team that had Ohtani would have that player.

Read more:Dodgers closer Edwin Díaz to have surgery, expected out until after All-Star break

“We’re more than willing for other teams to go out and find a player who can do both."

The rule exception helps the Dodgers in one obvious way: They can utilize a six-man starting rotation while maintaining the full complement of eight relievers. Any other team using six starters would be down to seven relievers.

The topic likely will be revisited when the Cubs visit the Dodgers for a three-game series this weekend.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.