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Of the 15 games left on the Orioles 2026 schedule, six of them are against these Blue Jays. That’s helpful because if the O’s are going to beat the odds and make a last-ditch run for the playoffs, they need to leap-frog the Jays in the standings before chasing down the Guardians team that they just took two out of three games from.

These two teams have not faced off since early June, when they finished playing one another seven times in a 10-game span. They split the series in Baltimore, and then the Jays took two of three in Toronto. Since then, both teams have had their ups and downs.

Toronto enters the series in the midst of a sudden cold patch. They’ve lost three of their last four against the Royals and Athletics. But that comes right after an impressive 23-12 stretch that lasted from late July through last weekend. So either this past week was a blip amidst a torrid run into the postseason, or it was a sudden downturn that will dash the hopes of the defending AL champs.

The Blue Jays have been one of the league’s best pitching staffs in the second half of the season. They have a 3.51 collective ERA, which ranks fifth in MLB. Both the rotation and the bullpen have been Top 10 units since the all-star break. Louis Varland has continued with his standout season at the back of the bullpen, compiling a 1.54 ERA in that stretch. Tyler Rogers, Spencer Miles, Mason Fluharty, and Paul Sewald all have ERAs of 2.05 or better in the second half as well.

The offense, on the other hand, has struggled. Toronto has averaged 3.86 runs per game in the second half. For comparison, the Orioles, who frustrate us all to no end, have averaged 4.28 in that same time.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (78 wRC+ in second half) has hit just two home runs since the break and has only eight on the year. Andrés Giménez (89 wRC+) and Ernie Clement (54 wRC+) have also struggled. George Springer (129 wRC+), however, has been as reliable as ever. Josh Smith (173 wRC+) has shown to be a great deadline addition, Alejandro Kirk (141 wRC+) has stepped up, and Kazuma Okamoto leads the team with eight second-half homers.

We won’t see several familiar names in this series due to injury. Trey Yesavage had meniscus surgery in August and is still building back up. Shane Bieber is dealing with teres major inflammation. Old friend Anthony Santander is yet to play this year due to labral surgery, but is currently on a rehab assignment. And Luis Urías, younger brother of old friend Ramón, is dealing with a quad strain that may keep him out for the rest of the year.

Game 1: Friday, September 11th, 7:07 p.m., MASN

RHP Chris Bassitt (6-5, 4.96 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (2-7, 6.03 ERA)

Bassitt has given the Orioles exactly what they hoped to get out of him ever since being activated off the IL a few weeks ago. In that time he has made five starts and has a 4.34 ERA while averaging nearly six innings per start. It’s steady and dependable stuff from the veteran. His last time to the mound against the Red Sox saw hime with his best velocity of the season and a whiff rate to match. You would imagine he wants to keep that trend going here against his former club.

The 42-year-old Scherzer has been limited to 62.2 innings this season due to ankle inflammation in late April and then back spasms suffered in mid June. Since being re-activated at the end of July, the future Hall of Famer has been quite good. Over eight starts he has a 3.76 ERA/3.96 across 40.2 innings in which he has struck out 34 and walked 16. His season ERA has dropped from 10.23 to 6.03 now.

Game 2: Saturday, September 12th, 6:10 p.m., MASN

Kyle Bradish (7-13, 3.91 ERA) vs. TBD

August (.510 SLG) and September (.528) have seen Bradish post the worst slugging numbers against of his season. He has allowed six home runs across 34 home runs. And has been noted many times, his strikeout rates are coming down. The righty was striking out 10.1 per nine innings back in June. In the three months since that number has been 6.5, 6.8, and 7.0. Maybe he will get a little extra juice on what will be his 30th birthday.

This would be Spencer Arrighetti’s turn in the rotation for Toronto, but he struggle in his most recent outing (4.2 innings, six runs, six hits, three walks, three strikeouts), so they may opt for another option, or perhaps an opener.

Game 3: Sunday, September 13th, 1:37 p.m., MASN

LHP Trevor Rogers (10-9, 4.15 ERA) vs. TBD

A switch flipped for Rogers going into June. Since the start of that month he has a 2.88 ERA/2.78 FIP over 103 innings. His last start against Cleveland was his longest of the year. Over 7.1 innings he allowed on run on six hits, six strikeouts, and no walks. At this point, the southpaw would be silly to not test the open market. He may not have the longest track record, but his last two seasons here in Baltimore have been darn impressive.

Dylan Cease, who is in the mix for AL Cy Young, would be on turn to start. But it’s possible that with the off day prior to this series that Toronto could try to move him up to Saturday on normal rest to see if they can get their ace into as many games as possible down the stretch. In either case it won’t be an ideal matchup for the Orioles offense.

How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments.

Drue Hackenberg put up his best start of the season, throwing eight innings of one-run ball for the second straight outing while striking out nine hitters. Hackenberg has been dominant in his time in Columbus this season, and led the team to another win over the Biscuits thanks to his improved slider. David McCabe hit a home run in Gwinnett to reach 20 for the first time in his career, and Jim Jarvis reached base safely four times in the Stripers blowout win. Garrett Baumann also had an impressive day, but a drop in velocity clouded what was an otherwise successful day across the system.

(73-68) Gwinnett Stripers 10, (70-70) Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp 2

Box Score

Statcast

• Jim Jarvis, SS: 2-3, 2B, 3B, 2 BB .303/.404/.452
• David McCabe, DH: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, .300/.343/.567
• Lizandro Espinoza, CF: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, .268/.369/.408
• Garrett Baumann, SP: 5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 7.48 ERA

An explosive offensive performance sparked a smooth and easy ride to a Stripers win, and gave Garrett Baumann plenty of cushion to work with to get through five easy innings. Jim Jarvis started this one off by hitting one off of the base of the wall in left field for a triple, though with as poorly as the ball was played by the left fielder it probably would be an out in most cases. Nevertheless a hit on the stat sheet, and one pitch late he scampered home on a wide slider to the backstop to give Gwinnett the early lead. David McCabe put the exclamation point on a three-run first inning with a 410-foot smash – his 20th this season in just 72 games played. In the top of the second inning the Stripers loaded the bases after Jim Jarvis’s one-out walk, and yet another wild pitch brought home the fourth run of the game. That was followed by a double that Lizandro Espinoza slapped the other way, just keeping it fair down the right field line, and two runs scored to make it 6-0 in favor of Gwinnett. Rowdy Tellez followed that with another double to score Espinoza, and with a 7-0 lead the Stripers hit the cruise control down the stretch. Jarvis kept adding on to his line in the early innings of the game, with a fly ball off of the warning track in the third inning driving in the next Gwinnett run and putting him on for the third time in as many innings. Gwinnett hit the ball harder than normal this game, and Jordan Groshans in particular had two hard hit singles and three hard hit balls overall.

Garrett Baumann pitched well on the scoresheet in this game, but he left after only 71 pitches and his velocity was down significantly. His hardest pitch of the day was 94.9 mph, which is lower than his average velocity in six of his nine Triple-A starts prior to this game, and in total he averaged only 92.1 mph on four seam fastballs and sinkers (actually lower due to some being miscategorized as sliders) this game which is a full two mph lower than his last start which was tied for his previous low in velocity. He threw three fastballs in the fifth inning at 89.2 mph, 90.0 mph, and 90.0 mph and though he did finish the inning strong with a couple of whiffs and a strikeout that was the end of his road. That’s a small sample but more than 4 mph below his baseline for the fifth inning and beyond in games this year and in spite of a good game that has to raise some alarm bells. Baumann also had by far his lowest spin rate on fastballs in this game, though otherwise this way a good outing for him. He did a great job commanding his fastball and his splitter and those pitches were effective, but that’s overshadowed by such a significant change in his velocity. His slider also showed a similar velocity drop compared to his baseline, though his splitter was within his prior range of velocities. Baumann is at a career high in innings pitch, so fatigue could be a factor here, but it’s definitely something to watch closely to close the season.

Swing and Misses

Garrett Baumann – 8

Joel Payamps – 6

Anderson Pilar – 4

(64-66) Columbus Clingstones 4, (69-66) Montgomery Biscuits

Box Score

• John Gil, 2B: 1-5, 2 RBI, .321/.395/.440
• Eric Hartman, LF: 0-3, 2 BB, .187/.324/.276
• Alex Lodise, SS: 1-2, 2 BB, .301/.366/.470
• Owen Carey, RF: 0-4, RBI, .226/.315/.347
• Drue Hackenberg, SP: 8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K, 0.96 ERA

Drue Hackenberg is still trying to make a successful transition to Triple-A, but when he is in Columbus he pitches lights out and was at his best all year on Thursday. It took five innings for the Biscuits to scratch together a hit off of Hackenberg, and when they did it wasn’t convincing contact though they were able to force home a run with a couple of well-placed grounders. Three of Montgomery’s four hits were infield singles, and Hackenberg never lost his momentum even when he had some bad luck on batted balls. Hackenberg was in his best form with his slider — biting, located off of the plate, and consistently kept low — and Biscuits hitters couldn’t lay off of it. He had success with right handed hitters primarily due to that being his go-to pitch this game, but even the left-handed batters struggled at times when he got it on their back foot. Hackenberg isn’t meaningfully throwing the ball in the strike zone more often at Double-A, so he may not be able to repeat his success once he gets another shot at Gwinnett, but in terms of finding a consistent swing-and-miss pitch his slider has developed into that. Early in his career it was his best pitch but one he couldn’t get around the strike zone enough (except in rare breakout games like his 16 strikeout performance in 2024) but he’s throwing it harder with a a shorter break and that changed has allowed him to command it just well enough to make it effective. At his best Hackenberg is an outstanding pitcher, but the consistency for him is coming so slowly and the flashes aren’t common enough to think that’s who he is or even could be.

It wasn’t going to take much offense to beat the Biscuits this game, and the Clingstones lineup top-to-bottom gave them enough to take the win. It was a quiet game for John Gil at the top of the lineup, as in his first three at bats he made three quick outs without hard contact and was in jeopardy of losing his hitting streak late in this game. He came up in a 2-1 game with a couple of runners on base in the seventh inning, and that was when he finally made himself known. He hid a hard liner through the left side of the infield to drive in two insurance runs for Columbus, and that extended his hitting streak to 13 games. He then stole second and third base, putting him at an even 60 stolen bases on the season. That gave him the system lead in stolen bases, and with Patrick Clohisy on the shelf he is likely to finish at the leader at the end of the year while also being efficient with only ten caught stealing. Eric Hartman had a two-outcome evening, drawing two walks and stealing two bases but striking out in his other three plate appearances. Hartman was able to maintain an acceptable strikeout pace in his first month at Double-A, but in his past six games he has struck out three times in four of those, and it’s no surprise that he only has two hits and no extra base hits in his past nine games. Hartman has drawn his fair share of walks in that span to keep some threat on pitchers, but he’s hitting the point where he’s not going to get many fastballs to hit and he needs to adjust to improve his results on secondaries.

Swing and Misses

Drue Hackenberg – 18

Tyler LaPorte – 3

It was a short day for Major League Baseball on Thursday, with only five games taking place around the league. With all of them having at least one American League playoff hopeful however, it was still an important day in the standings. The Yankees capped off a resounding sweep of the Rockies in the Bronx, while several of their leaguemates struggled to make much noise on the mostly quiet Thursday of baseball.

Short schedule at all, let’s take a look at what went down around the Junior Circuit on Thursday.

Atlanta Braves (86-61) 3, Tampa Bay Rays (87-59) 1

With the Yankees winning on Thursday, they benefitted greatly from a tough loss for the Rays. Starters Martín Pérez and Nick Martinez were both brilliant in this one, with the former tossing seven scoreless frame, and the latter doing the same across 6.1 frames. It was a classic pitcher’s duel, as both Atlanta and Tampa Bay managed six combined hits with those two on the mound.

With seven scoreless innings kicking off this game, the Braves finally kicked in the flood gates in the eighth inning against the Rays bullpen. An Ozzie Albies triple got the ball rolling, before Austin Riley’s single into right plated the first run of the ballgame. A pinch-hitting Mike Yastrzemski hit a ground-rule double to bring two more runners into scoring position, before Ha-Seong Kim’s single brought ‘em both home and put the Braves up 3-0.

The Rays finally made a little noise in the ninth, when Victor Mesa Jr. deposited a solo homer into right-center, but it was too little too late, as the Rays fell 3-1. The Yankees now sit three games behind them in the AL East, as the Rays host the Astros for three games this weekend.

Other Games

Pittsburgh Pirates (74-73) 2, Chicago White Sox (75-71) 0: The Rays weren’t the only AL squad to go quiet with the bats, as the White Sox failed to plate a run in their dance with the Pirates on Thursday. The Buccos opened scoring in the fourth when Oneil Cruz belted his 18th homer of the year, one of two RBIs the talented Cruz plated for his squad in this one. The Sox managed just a pair of hits in this one, as Jared Jones took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, before the Pittsburgh ‘pen closed things out. Chicago still holds a 1.5 game lead in the Central, with the Guardians lurking behind.

AL Wild Card Rock Fight

Houston Astros (75-72) 2, Philadelphia Phillies (82-65) 1: In a game that was knotted at one for much of the way, Cam Smith’s 20th homer of the season was the deciding blow for Houston. The game-winning solo shot in the ninth fueled the ‘Stros to their 75th win of the season, and bumped their lead in the West up to three games.

Seattle Mariners (69-78) 4, Texas Rangers (72-75) 3: After trailing 3-0 into the seventh on Thursday, the Mariners leaned on their superstar for the heroics. After plating a run early in the inning, Seattle’s Julio Rodríguez flipped this game upside down with a three-run blast off of Jakob Junis. His 21st home run of the seaosn propelled the M’s to victory, and delivered a major blow to the Rangers, who are now two games out of the party in the AL wild card.

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The winners kept coming last night, and it's moving day with the MLB player props. I've dug myself out of a massive hole, and now I'm enjoying the late-season heater with the home run props.

Riley Greene at his price is that bat I want vs. the Rockies, who are finding themselves on the hit list every day, and Shota Imanaga is a perfect pitcher to fade with his home run numbers. 

These are my favorite home run props for Friday, September 11.

MLB home run props for today

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Player to hit a HR	Chance
Riley Greene	20%
Rafael Flores Jr.	16.7%

Home run prediction: Riley Greene (20%)

The Colorado Rockies pitching staff has made us some money this week, and I'm staying there again today with Mason Adams getting the ball.

This is a Triple-A arm who was a 13th-round pick. He has a 7.91 ERA in Albuquerque and will give way to arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. It's time to find a good bat at a good price for the Tigers.

It didn't take long to land on Riley Greene at 20%.

He owns a .710 slugging percentage over the last 30 days with a team-high three taters. That's the fifth-best slugging rate in baseball over that span, and his BlastContact% ranks in the top 25 as well.

Fade the Rockies until Game 162.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Detroit SportsNet, Rockies.TV

Home run prediction: Rafael Flores Jr. (17%)

Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite hit-list pitchers. He's good, but he gives up dingers, which can give us some hidden value. Just in the second half, 30% of his hits allowed have left the yard.

That's 11 dingers in 35+ innings. Over the last two seasons, only Zack Littell has allowed more homers than the Chicago lefty.

I'm going out on a limb a little on this one and settling on the lesser-known Rafael Flores Jr. at 16.7%.

He leads the Pittsburgh Pirates in slugging and home runs (7) over the last 30 days and is handling left-handed pitching well, which is getting him into the middle of the order.

It's an afternoon Friday game at Wrigley, which has been a shrine for dingers this year. Shota has been good to me all season long.

• Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marquee Sports Network, SportsNet Pittsburgh

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Now, will the Guardians walk through it? That’s the question.

The Guardians were off yesterday, but the Pittsburgh Pirates beat the White Sox again, leaving Cleveland trailing Chicago by only 1.5 games. Somehow. The Rangers also lost, and the Guardians still 1 game ahead for the third wildcard (the Blue Jays are in that next slot, Rangers are two back). The path to the playoffs is still there. I don’t see how this team has given anyone any confidence they will make this happen, but they certainly have the ability to change all that starting tonight in Minnesota.

CTC user Jurko67 caught Columbus Clippers’ play-by-play guy noting that Ralphy Velazquez has missed three games with “lower body soreness.” Hopefully nothing serious but explains his absence from the lineup. Kyle Manzardo also missed yesterday’s game. Still think the team needs to add a left-handed hitter with pop to pair with Adell, whether Ralphy, Cooper Ingle or even Manzardo, and demote Petey Halpin or Daniel Schneemann. Someone who can feasibly play in the outfield would be preferable.

Zack Meisel of the Athletic has a look at the Guardians’ playoff scenarios today in the Athletic.

Entering the final weeks of the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, four of the game's six divisions are still up for grabs, as well as the final wild card spot in each league – setting up a roller-coaster race to Game 162.

The New York Yankees still have runway to catch the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East, the Cleveland Guardians are within two games of the Chicago White Sox in the Central and the Texas Rangers aren't dead yet in the West behind the Houston Astros.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been trying to chase down the Braves in the NL East all season and face the leaders for a three-game set in Atlanta beginning on Friday that could unofficially decide the division.

Here's a look at the latest standings:

In 2024, the Royals were in the ALDS. Second place in the AL Central. In 2025 they fell to third, missed the playoffs. They were likely hoping to bounce back. Better health and maybe they’re right back in the mix? Nope. In 2026 they’re coming to Boston in last place in the AL Central with as many losses (82) as they had wins in 2025. And there are a couple weeks left to go.

Seth Lugo was a big part of that 2024 breakout team. He’d demonstrated he could be a starter the year before with San Diego and he fully made the transition leading the league in starts. No bad after much of his career spent in the bullpen. Well, the bills have come due. Lugo is closing in on his career high ERA. He faced Boston as part of a sweep by the Sox but tossed a quality start: 6.0 innings, 2 runs, 5Ks and 2 walks. Since July he’s made 17 starts and put up a 6.24 ERA / 4.98 FIP. He’s still signed for another year and the Royals will likely try to help him provide veteran leadership to the rotation again. Just a couple weeks older than Lugo, Sonny Gray is in the Cy Young conversation and having a fantastic year. After a little extra rest Gray came out firing for 7.0 shutout innings.

Randy Dobnak had thrown just 15 MLB innings since the 2021 season came to an end before this year. Now 10 starts into a bit of a resurgence, he’s had his ups and down. He doesn’t strike out many guys (just 43 in 63.2 innings) walks just under half as many (18) as he Ks and gives up almost a hit per inning (61). But he’s largely keeping the Royals in games, aside from a start on 9/1 where the Marlins touched him for 6 earned runs. Ranger Suarez finally had the start we’ve all been waiting for since his return from the IL. Seven innings, no runs, only a single walk? If he can have a couple more of those and roll into Playoff Ranger, a nearly unstoppable October force? The Sox will take it.

Noah Cameron is in his second full big league season and the lefty has been solid. He’s struck out 7 in back-to-back starts and had 8 Ks against the Angels in a complete game shutout in the middle of August. But he probably won’t be the best southpaw starter on the mound Sunday. He’s matched by Payton Tolle. Mass Pike is coming off a casual 12 strikeout game against the Orioles. He was at 91 pitches over 6.0 innings and if this were a different part of the season you wonder if Chad Tracy would have left him go another inning because he was carving up the birds.

Bobby Witt Jr. has hit 18 home runs and stolen 39 bases. He’s spent some time on the IL buy has quietly had one of the best seasons in baseball.

Vinnie “Pasquatch” Pasquantino has 11 homers on the year.

Willson Contreras is expected to make a rehab start on Friday and, you never know, could be in Fenway for Saturday or Sunday.

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday, September 11: Seth Lugo (5.04 ERA / 4.17 FIP) vs. Sonny Gray (2.69 ERA / 3.50 FIP)

Saturday, September 12: Randy Dobnak (2.54 ERA / 4.10 FIP) vs. Ranger Suarez (3.44 ERA / 3.11 FIP)

Sunday, September 13: Noah Cameron (3.93 ERA / 3.62 FIP) vs. Payton Tolle (3.15 ERA / 4.10 FIP)

When/Where to Watch

Friday, September 11: 7:10 PM ET on NESN

Saturday, September 12: 4:10 PM ET on NESN

Sunday, September 13: 1:35 PM ET on NESN

It seems like we were at this point a few months ago. Optimism was high, as all eyes were on San Diego Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta’s first rehab pitching appearance in Lake Elsinore.

If all went well, he was the obvious choice to join the starting rotation. However, those dreams were shattered after Pivetta walked off the mound before the inning was over. He was favoring his right throwing arm, which is never an ideal look in a rehab appearance.

The Friar Faithful thought it would be impossible to see Pivetta on a major league mound again in 2026. Despite all the setbacks, he continued with his rehab throwing program.

Now, Pivetta has earned another opportunity to make a difference this season. 

Veteran starting pitching is a hot commodity in September 

Organizations value veteran starting pitchers because they rarely get rattled in postseason games. Inexperienced starters have excellent raw skills, but they do succumb to the pressures of October baseball. Pitching in high-level situations can be overwhelming, as veterans rarely overthink the moment.

Young pitchers often struggle the second time through the lineup. Veteran starters quickly recognize which pitches get outs and which ones are hit with authority. The playoffs are all about making adjustments.

The matter of Vasquez

The loser in this move is Randy Vasquez, who was sent to the bullpen. While the front office believes in Vasquez’s potential, his production does not match Pivetta’s yet. 

Coming into spring training, Vasquez was considered a fifth-starter candidate. Quickly, he evolved into a hard-throwing mainstay of the staff with a drop-dead sinker. 

The right-hander prefers to start, but he will sacrifice his preference and slide into a bullpen role for the stretch run. The Padres expect him to excel because Vasquez is not afraid to challenge hitters. 

No question, he has upside and probably will be the No. 3 starter in the 2027 Friars starting rotation. 

Amid speculation about Pivetta’s return, the Padres’ decision to choose a pitcher with 214 big-league starts over a rising talent with just 73 career starts is tough to argue against. 

Padres searching for starters at deadline

At the trade deadline, the Friars were desperate for starting pitching. For the first time this season, they looked outside the organization for solutions. Before the bell rang, the Padres acquired Robbie Ray from the San Francisco Giants and Casey Mize from the Detroit Tigers. 

Each move sounds great in theory, but adding Pivetta to the starting rotation gives the Padres a veteran-laden staff. It was never clear if the Friars fully considered him a pitching option after his latest rehab setback. But Pivetta is the perfect fit to start behind Ray and Mize because of his proven track record.

Yes, he is a slight upgrade over Vasquez because of his major league experience. He posted a 3.43 ERA in his first five starts before suffering a flexor strain in his right elbow. 

Pivetta’s talent is evident, but injuries have repeatedly disrupted his momentum. He still has time this season to showcase his pitching talents.  

Suddenly, the Friars are an enticing postseason option.

Padres News:

• Lake Elsinore began postseason play as seasons wind down for Padres’ minor league affiliates. Coleman Borthwick was impressive in his debut.

• The Padres know the season could come down to the final series with the Arizona Diamondbacks and that is how they are preparing for the stretch run of the season.

• Annie Heilbronn of the San Diego Union-Tribunetalked with new Padres pitcher Casey Mize to give fans more information about the new rotation piece.

• Fernando Tatis Jr. has reached 20 home runs on the season despite his long homer less drought to start the year. Dennis Lin of The Athleticlooks at what he did to rediscover his power.

Baseball News:

• Anthony Volpe returned to the lineup and helped power the New York Yankees to a win over the Colorado Rockies.

• The Houston Astros topped the Philadelphia Phillies, 2-1.

• The Atlanta Braves beat the Tampa Bay Rays behind a solid start from Martin Perez.

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The Cincinnati Reds (38%) have hammered the baseball lately, barreling up right-handed pitchers at a higher rate than any other team the past three weeks.

I expect their offense to get to Dustin May, which is why I'm backing the road team to keep it close with my Reds vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks for tonight's game in Milwaukee.

Who will win Reds vs Brewers today: Cincinnati Reds +1.5 (56%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Cincinnati Reds are in sneaky good form at the dish, and I'm backing them on the RL to 59%.

They rank eighth in xwOBA vs. right-handed pitching the last three weeks, and have barreled up the opposing pitcher at a much higher rate (11.4%) than any other team. Nobody else is within two percent.

I expect them to cause problems for Dustin May, whose xERA sits at 5.85 over the past month. He has also given up barrels at nearly a 10% clip during that span.

That should feed into Cincinnati’s power, allowing them to hang tough in this inner-division clash.

COVERS INTEL:Dustin May's seventh percentile ranking in hard hit rate will only feed into Cincinnati's power surge vs. right-handed pitching.

Reds vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (55%)

This total is a run too low, making the Over a buy to 57%.

Andrew Abbott has not pitched nearly as well on the road this season, sporting a 5.96 xERA while allowing 1.5 homers per nine innings.

The Milwaukee Brewers feature a prolific offense and are lights out at home, making this a difficult spot to envision a quality start from Abbott – especially having just faced the Brew Crew. They’ll be used to his stuff.

May owns an ERA and xERA above 6.0 since the trade to Milwaukee, and now has to deal with a Reds offense hammering the baseball.

Reds vs Brewers home run prediction: Tyler Stephenson (15%)

Tyler Stephenson has provided the Reds with real pop of late, and profiles very well against May’s mix.

Isolating May’s three most-used pitches, which account for well over 80% of what he throws to righties, Stephenson has posted a 14.8% barrel rate and generated hard contact at a 51.9% clip over the last 25 games. He has done real damage.

Stephenson hasn’t seen much of May over the years but is 2-for-4 with an extra-base hit in a limited sample.

Reds vs Brewers weather

This game will be played indoors.

Reds vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Reds 38% | Brewers 63%
• Run line: Reds +1.5 (57%) | Brewers -1.5 (44%)
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 (53%) | Under 7.5 (48%)

Reds vs Brewers trend

Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Over in 13 of the last 20 games (+5.15 units, 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Brewers.

How to watch Reds vs Brewers and game info

Reds vs Brewers latest injuries

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The Chicago Cubs are a sizable home favorite over the Pittsburgh Pirates ahead of the 2:20 p.m. ET first pitch of their series opener at Wrigley Field on Friday, Sept. 11.

My top Pirates vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks expect Chicago lefty Shota Imanaga to lead the way in a convincing win this afternoon.

Who will win Pirates vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (45%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Pittsburgh Pirates rank 25th in wOBA with the second-highest strikeout percentage against lefties, so Chicago Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga is set up to build on his respectable 3.91 xERA and 3.93 xFIP across his past nine starts.

Additionally, the Chicago offense is ripe to rebound following a disappointing series against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Cubs posted an uncharacteristically low .235 BABIP, with their .282 wOBA also well below their .323 xwOBA during the three-game set.

Pittsburgh righty Wilber Dotel is scheduled to make his first career start before giving way to a bullpen that ranks eighth in xERA and 13th in xFIP across the past 30 days, but it’s also a potentially tired group that was tasked with 12 1/3 innings during their three-game series that wrapped up Thursday night.

With the highlighted statistical correction ahead for Chicago paired with them ranking fourth in wOBA and fifth in ISO against righties for the campaign, I’m anticipating the North Siders giving Dotel early trouble before chipping in runs against the Pittsburgh bullpen.

I recommend Cubs -1.5 to 48%.

COVERS INTEL: Imanaga has generated the sixth-most swinging strikes while allowing the seventh-lowest walk rate among qualified pitchers.

Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)

The weather forecast calls for the wind to be blowing in modestly at Wrigley Field this afternoon, so with the noted offensive struggles of the Pirates against lefties, I’m not anticipating Pittsburgh piling up runs against Imanaga.

Pittsburgh has played to the Under in 28 of their last 50 games (+7.20 Units / 13% ROI), and Imanaga has held the Pirates to a minuscule .345 OPS across six starts against them, after all.

Additionally, while there is statistical correction ahead for the Cubs, Pittsburgh essentially going with a bullpen game should keep the Chicago lineup off balance just enough to keep this total Under the number.

This total is in play to 56%.

Pirates vs Cubs home run prediction: Michael Conforto (14%)

Cubs outfielder Michael Conforto has settled into a groove at the plate down the stretch with a massive .584 wOBA and .483 ISO across his past 36 plate appearances, and he’s also put up a high-end .227 ISO against right-handed arms for the campaign.

Pittsburgh righty Carmen Mlodzinski is a candidate to pitch multiple innings in relief Friday, so Conforto should see multiple looks to stay hot this afternoon.

Pirates vs Cubs weather

The forecast calls for a sunny 76°F afternoon with no chance of precipitation and a steady 8 mph breeze blowing inward from the outfield should give pitchers a slight edge.

Pirates vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Pirates 38% | Cubs 65%
• Run line: Pirates +1.5 (55%) | Cubs -1.5 (46%)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (52%) | Under 8 (52%)

Pirates vs Cubs trend

The Cubs have covered the run line in 28 of their last 50 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.

How to watch Pirates vs Cubs and game info

Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries

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Mariners 4, Rangers 3

• I’m bummed. So bummed.
• This game…sigh.
• Jacob deGrom was, so, so good.
• 19 batters faced. 12 fanned. Just one hit, on a ball that goes for an out if he doesn’t get his glove on it.
• Everything seemed set up for the Rangers to take the finale and keep up in the playoff hunt.
• And then…
• Everything comes crashing down.
• The bullpen, which has been the source of so many problems of late, was to blame.
• But this time, it was one of the reliable guys, one of the pitchers we haven’t had cause to complain about.
• Jakob Junis, someone who feel good about, someone who we think, if we can just get the game to him and Jacob Latz, we are in good shape.
• A hit batter. A slow roller the other way that snuck through the infield. A single. And then a Julio Rodriguez blast.
• And like that, in a span of four batters, the game, and the Rangers season, has turned around.
• The Rangers had an uphill battle to make the playoffs even with a win in Seattle. The odds were against them.
• But I felt like they could do it. They could make it to the postseason. Not that they would, necessarily, but they could.
• Now? Now, it feels like the season is over.
• And we can think about all the games the Rangers could have won this year, but didn’t, all the missed opportunities.
• Or we can just think about this one game, about the ball caroming perfectly off the backstop to Cal Raleigh to tag out Nicky Lopez on what seemed at first to be a no-doubt run scoring wild pitch, about Wyatt Langford being tagged out at home two innings later on an inning-ending wild pitch, about the tying and go-ahead runs being on base in the ninth, only to be stranded.
• It makes me sad.
• I want to make myself set that aside, and appreciate instead the greatness of Jacob deGrom, appreciate what he did in this game, say that his excellence stands apart and can be enjoyed and embraced without regard to the final outcome of the game. That would be the rational thing to do.
• But sports fandom, and sports feelings, aren’t rational, are they?
• Jacob deGrom’s fastball topped out at 99.6 mph, averaging 98.3 mph. Jakob Junis reached 94.0 mph with his fastball. Robert Garcia’s fastball maxed out at 95.0 mph. Robby Ahlstrom touched 95.2 mph with his fastball.
• Ezequiel Duran had a 108.2 mph ground out. Joc Pederson had a 102.3 mph home run. Danny Jansen had a 101.6 mph single.
• Baseball continues, whether we want it to or not. On to Arizona.

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The New York Mets and New York Yankees enter play in strong form, both cracking the Top-5 in wins over the last 30 games.

I trust Nolan McLean more than Carlos Rodon, making the underdog an appealing target with my Mets vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for the Subway Series opener.

Who will win Mets vs Yankees today: New York Mets (46%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The New York Mets have had a solid process against southpaws the past 30 days, ranking 10th in xSLG and 16th in xBA.

They should have an easier time turning those outputs into results against Carlos Rodon. His xERA is more than two runs higher than his ERA over the last month, and he’s given up a ton of barrels (10.9%) and hard contact (45.7%).

Nolan McLean has done an exceptional job neutralizing power, allowing zero homers and two barrels during that span.

He’ll give the Mets a real chance of pulling off the upset.

Play to 49%.

COVERS INTEL:Nolan McLean's 86th percentile ranking in xSLG will make it difficult on a power-dependent Yankees offense to produce.

Mets vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (55%)

The Mets have shown signs of improvement under the hood, but the reality is their offense hasn’t produced much vs. lefties.

They sit 27th in BA, 26th in OBP, and 22nd in OPS. Rodon is poised to take a step back, but the Mets are an unlikely candidate to put forth a true ceiling performance against him.

McLean has posted an impressive 2.39 ERA and 2.70 xERA on the road this season, and given up next to no power of late. He’ll make it tough on a New York Yankees offense that relies heavily on the long ball.

Back the Under to 56%.

Mets vs Yankees home run prediction: Carson Benge (13%)

Rodon leans heavily on the fastball-slider combination, and that’s what Carson Benge hits best against lefties.

He owns a .398 wOBA, .254 ISO, and 18.2% barrel rate when facing fastballs or sliders thrown by southpaws this season. All of his home runs vs. lefties have come against those two pitches.

Benge has only had two at-bats against Rodon in his career but did take him for extra bases in one of them.

Don’t be surprised if he leaves the park this time around.

Mets vs Yankees weather

Neutral impacts are expected for hitters with temperatures hovering in the high 70s and winds blowing left to right.

Mets vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Mets 45% | Yankees 56%
• Run line: Mets +1.5 (63%) | Yankees -1.5 (38%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)

Mets vs Yankees trend

New York has hit the moneyline in 16 of the last 25 away games (+9.55 units, 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Yankees.

How to watch Mets vs Yankees and game info

Mets vs Yankees latest injuries

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Two teams in the thick of the Wild Card race in their respective conferences open a crucial 3-game set Friday, when the Texas Rangers visit the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Prediction markets favor the home team, giving the D-Backs a 54% probability.

With Arizona playing better ball – winning four of its last five – my Rangers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks will back the home team on Friday, September 11.

Who will win Rangers vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks ML (55%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are a half-game behind San Diego for the NL's final Wild Card, winning their last two series behind a staff posting a 2.73 ERA over the past week.

The Texas Rangers (2.0 games behind Cleveland in the AL Wild Card) have lost four of six, scoring three or fewer runs in three losses, and rank seventh worst in MLB at 4.15 runs per game on the road.

The Rangers have also dropped three of four in Arizona, averaging just 3.0 runs per game.

With Arizona pitching well and Texas struggling to score, I'd back the Diamondbacks moneyline up to a 60% probability.

COVERS INTEL: Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte is on a nice run, picking up at least a hit in eight straight games and 12 of his last 14. During that time, Marte has added nine runs scored and eight runs batted in.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Under 9.5 (56%)

We've already discussed Texas' pop-gun offense on the road, where they've dropped six of nine, scoring three runs or less in five of those losses.

Diamondbacks starter Merrill Kelly has struggled this year with a 5.06 ERA, but he's kept the opposition to three runs or fewer in each of his last three starts.

Arizona isn't exactly lighting it up at home, ranking middle of the pack at 4.43 runs per game.

While Kumar Rocker has struggled to a 5-11 record and a 4.61 ERA, Arizona is hitting just .176 against him – though in a very small sample size.

The Diamondbacks have also been an Under magnet of late, going Under the total in seven straight games.

Play this to 50%. 

Rangers vs Diamondbacks home run prediction: Joc Pederson (23%)

Rangers DH Joc Pederson has traditionally hit Kelly hard, though he's yet to homer off him in 28 career at-bats.

Pederson, who leads the Rangers in homers with 26, is hitting .286 against Kelly, picking up two doubles and two triples in his eight hits.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks weather

It will be a warm and humid night, with slight winds blowing out to center field. 

Rangers vs Diamondbacks odds

• Moneyline: Rangers 46% | Diamondbacks 55%
• Run line: Rangers +1.5 (34%) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (38%)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (56%) | Under 8.5 (46%)

Rangers vs Diamondbacks trend

Arizona has the third-best moneyline record in baseball, at 38-22-0. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Rangers vs Diamondbacks and game info

Rangers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

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