Category: Sports News

The Cubs resume the 2026 season against an American League team. The Cubs’ interleague record to date isn’t very good, just 11-15. That means there are 22 games remaining for the Cubs against AL teams, a reasonable number to improve that record! Let’s hope that improvement begins during this homestand, which is all against AL Central clubs, the Twins and Tigers.

For more on the Twins, here’s Benjamin Jones, manager of our SB Nation Twins site Twinkie Town.

When the Twins and Cubs met in July 2025, Minnesota was around .500 on the backs of strong starting pitching from Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and the best bullpen in baseball but couldn’t muster enough offense to truly compete. Despite a similar record in 2026, things couldn’t be more different. Lopez is out for the season and the entire bullpen is gone after dealing away 2026 All-Stars Jhoan Duran, Louie Varland, and five other relievers a year ago, while the Twins have one of best lineups in baseball.

What’s different this time around is the direction and vibe of the team. Former Pirates manager Derek Shelton has brought a new energy to the squad that wasn’t always present under longtime manager Rocco Baldelli, which helped the young batters stick out some tough spells early in the season. Since June 12, the Twins are 17-10, fourth-best in MLB, and have won eight of nine series, with the only loss coming against the almighty Dodgers. Of course, the Cubs have the best record in baseball in that same span, but let’s not dwell on that part. Minnesota is right back in the playoff race and has a new controlling owner (albeit from the same Pohlad family) who has made it clear he’s willing to spend money to shore up their major holes.

And those holes are prevalent. The most glaring issue is the bullpen, which makes sense after the 2025 sell-off. Rookie Andrew Morris has been among the best relievers in the sport over the past two months since moving to the bullpen full time. Yoendrys Gomez, claimed off waivers from the Rays in May, has also been very good after tweaking his pitch mix with the Twins. Outside of that, there’s genuinely no one with a semblance of reliability. If they can get to the eighth with a lead, they’re solid, but those middle innings after Ryan, Taj Bradley, and Bailey Ober leave the game are where the Cubs should be able to feast.

On the other side, the Twins are led by Byron Buxton though he may miss this series as he went on the IL right before the All-Star break. Outside of Buck, there are no individual standouts, but pretty much everyone in the lineup has been a solid contributor. The overall numbers are still lackluster with a lot of slow starts, but since June 1, the Twins have 11 players with a wRC+ of at least 100, eight at 120+, and four (Buxton, Trevor Larnach, Victor Caratini, Josh Bell) at 150+. It’s a solid, deep lineup that is very scary when Buck and catcher Ryan Jeffers are healthy.

The main place they’re susceptible is against lefties, which has been an issue for a literal decade. Outside of Buxton and Jeffers, their best hitters are platoon lefties (Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens) or switch hitters who are significantly worse from the right side (Bell, Caratini, Brooks Lee). Shelton will get aggressive with pinch hitters when lefties come out of the ‘pen, which opposing managers have used to their advantage to get Larnach and Clemens out of the lineup in the middle innings. Though, with the team currently carrying three catchers, that may be less of a strategy over the next few weeks. Either way, I would expect a heavy dose of lefty specialist, ex-Twin, and Minnesota native Caleb Thielbar, which I’m personally very happy about

Fun facts

The Cubs have played 23 previous games at home vs. the Twins, tied with the Royals for their second most at Wrigley Field against any American League team other than the White Sox, their guests for 76 games.

The Cubs are 14-9 at home vs. the Twins, for a winning percentage of .609. They have a higher percentage only when hosting the Angels (.625, 10-6), Blue Jays (.636, 7-4) and Mariners (.643, 9-5).

Against all AL teams, the Cubs are 309-292, .514, overall and 162-138, .540, at home. But this year, they are just 11-15, .423, overall and 4-7, .363, at home.

The Cubs are 24-22 in all games vs. the Twins. They lost two of three at Minnesota last year, after having won two of three at home in 2024.

The Cubs swept three games vs. the Twins at Wrigley twice, in 2001 and 2018. They are 3-5 in three series there since then.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Colin Rea, RHP (7-5, 4.75 ERA, 1.447 WHIP, 4.91 FIP) vs. Bailey Ober, RHP (6-3, 4.40 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, 4.91 FIP)

Saturday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (5-1, 4.50 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, 3.58 FIP) vs. Taj Bradley, RHP (9-3, 3.59 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 3.93 FIP)

Sunday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (5-8, 4.17 ERA, 1.120 WHIP, 4.64 FIP) vs. Zebby Matthews, RHP (4-6, 4.57 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 5.10 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 7:05 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Saturday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Sunday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

The Cubs are playing well. As noted above, so are the Twins — who, amazingly enough, are tied for the AL’s third wild card spot even though they are a game under .500.

The Twins have won nine of their last 12 road games so the Cubs should not look past them. Still, I think the Cubs should win two of three here.

Up next

The Cubs host the Detroit Tigers in a three-game series at Wrigley Field beginning Monday evening.

Say what you like about the extra wild-card, it has certainly made things interesting. There’s really only a handful of teams in the NL who are out of the picture. Five (the Rockies, Giants, Mets, Reds and Nationals) currently have playoff odds below four percent, according to Fangraphs. Everyone else is at least in double digits, with the Diamondbacks sitting at 24%. There’s 66 games left, and still a lot to play for, as the second half of the season kicks off tonight, with the D-backs taking on the Cardinals at Chase Field.

Arizona currently sits on a record of 49-47, two and a half games back of the Marlins for the third wild-card spot in the National League. The Pirates and those Cardinals are also ahead of the Diamondbacks, so winning this opening series after the break becomes doubly important. Not least because it’d give Arizona any potential season series tiebreaker against St. Louis, having previously taken two of three at Busch Stadium (one game there was postponed, which will now be squeezed in next Thursday, an unscheduled stop as the D-backs head from Phoenix to Washington).

It would also help make up GM Mike Hazen’s mind with regard to his philosophy as we approach August 3rd’s trade deadline, now little more than two weeks away. While Hazen’s contract runs through the end of 2028, with a club option for 2029, it does feel like the rest of this year may be his “crossing the Delaware” moment. [The silence on any contract extension for lame-duck manager Torey Lovullo seems telling] After making an unexpected run to the World Series in 2023, and Hazen being rewarded with club-record payrolls in 2024 and 2025, the team failed to reach the playoffs in either season, and the win total dropped from 89 to 80 wins last year. Failure again may prove fatal.

So what needs to happen for Arizona to avoid that, and return to the post-season for the first time since 2023? Here are five things which will factor into that. If they can address all of them successfully, I think they’ll be able to push their way back into the playoff picture. But that’s going to be considerably easier said than done.

1. Get production from first-base

Courtesy of Tim Tawa’s single-handed demolition job at Dodger Stadium, the D-backs no longer have the worst OPS at first-base by any MLB team in over a century. They’re now merely the worst team in the National League for over eighty years – the 1944 Boston Braves being the last such to post a figure below Arizona’s current .590. The good news is, things can hardly get any worse. But where the improvement will come from is less certain. Tyler Locklear has been called up, and was batting .313 for Reno over 54 games. But an .897 OPS is not all that for the PCL, and Locklear’s major-league performances have been lackluster. He may be a place-holder until Hazen trades for someone better.

2. Stabilize the rotation

At the start of the year, we were hoping to have Corbin Burnes back for the second half. That ain’t happening. Instead, we have Zac Gallen and Michael Soroka joining him on the IL, which has forced the team to give debuts to Jose Cabrera, who turned 24 in May, and the even younger Mitch Bratt, who celebrated his 23rd birthday a couple of weeks ago. Add in the struggles of Merrill Kelly and Brandon Pfaadt, and it doesn’t feel like a playoff rotation. By fWAR, Arizona’s starting pitching is 27th in the majors, mostly because their K-rate ranks dead last. Kelly and Pfaadt have looked better their last couple of outings, and that’s almost certainly going to be needed for the team to contend.

3. Staying centered

First base may have received all the criticism, but center hasn’t been much better at the plate: a .579 OPS there, ahead only of Cleveland. With Tommy Troy now joining Jordan Lawlar on the injured list, the options there become perilously thin. The fact Jorge Barrosa has made 65 appearances so far for Arizona, while batting .186, tells you all you need to know about the outfield situation for the D-backs. The return of Locklear may mean we see more Tawa in center. It’s another area where the bar is law for improvement. But while discussing the outfield, just moving to the right a bit, we could also do with Corbin Carroll getting out of his recent slump and returning to form.

4. Keep the Sewald intact

Overall, the Diamondbacks bullpen has been much improved, with their 4.00 ERA the lowest since 2018. But closer Paul Sewald has not been helping, with a 4.24 ERA which belies the fact he has 22 saves in 23 save opportunities. He had struggled in non-save situations (a 6.35 ERA across 14 appearances) and has shown an almost supernatural ability to shrink leads to one run before getting the final out. While those saves are in the books, it feels unsustainable. Since 2021, of the forty-one other closers with 20+ saves in the first half, only two had an ERA of even four.

5. Robust(ish) health

I’m not putting too much faith in the return of Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk. They have all had layoffs of well over a year, and it’d be expecting too much for them immediately to regain their pre-injury form. What I am keeping my fingers crossed for, is an absence of any more significant injuries. There’s hardly a position on the diamond where I would feel fine, replacing a current everyday player with their backup. [Maybe 1B, because how low can you go?] The news that Geraldo Perdomo is getting cortisone injections in his wrist, does not inspire confidence. But it’s a long season, and by the end of it, just about everyone will be playing hurt. As long as they’re still playing…

To be frank, a one in four shot of the playoffs seems about right. It is about twice what it was on this date in 2025, although it feels like this version of the Diamondbacks has more glaring flaws. Still, after four days without baseball, I’m more than ready for the second half, and whatever it holds!

What are our expectations for the Seattle Mariners the rest of this year? The club which finally assembled a roster preseason worthy of division title presumption, and pennant dreaming beyond mere wish-casting, has vastly underperformed. They kick off the season’s second half (or 60% mark, more accurately) a game under .500, in second place in the AL West. It is far from the worst state to enter MLB’s Re-Opening Day that Seattle has seen, even measured merely against the recent stretch of contention since 2021.

But this year, we expected better. For the first time since 2004, or perhaps even 2002, the Mariners were coming off a potent season of play and had added significant augmentation to a roster that now looked like a title contender. The fan base once maligned as “spoiled and greedy” has in fact only had perhaps three or four seasons of reasonable expectation for greatness this millennium, and this indeed was one of them.

I used to relish low expectations. I’d love to say it’s a shortcoming I’ve shaken off, but the temptation can creep in at times. After all, it’s difficult to disappoint when the bar is at your feet, and I hate to disappoint. But insulation from expectations often is a short term salve for a long-term corrosion. The accusation of being a “try-hard” rarely sat well or came from my lips. But there was a certain satisfaction in succeeding without effort, as though it were more valiant than doing so laboriously.

It’s ridiculous, self-defeating nonsense. Trying is hard, failing is too. With apologies to Yoda, there is no do without try, and do not is very different if the not is earned through effort or apathy. I wish I’d confronted those tendencies in myself sooner. Here, however, I’ve been railing against them in the Mariners for years. Trying and failing stings, but it does not inherently corrode. It’s helped me hold myself closer to the standard I want from my favorite ballclub. It’s also helped me weather failure and shortcomings.

The 2026 Mariners have been a failure to this point. They were rightfully expected, thanks to aggressive moves by the front office amplified in contrast to several tepid winters prior, to be one of the best teams in the American League. The American League has spent the better part of the year previewing this summer’s cyclospora outbreak, keeping Seattle in the mix for not only an AL West title but a first round bye. Even today, were the season to end, Seattle would be in the playoffs again, their first consecutive trips to the postseason since 2000-2001.

But I expect more. We, rightfully, expect more this season. It’s something familiar in other Seattle sports, where at least one of the Storm, Seahawks, and Sounders have been championship contenders in any given year of the last few decades. Having high expectations isn’t natural to me for the Mariners, however, and I’ve struggled with it undermining my enjoyment of moments that might have otherwise been a highlight in a lesser campaign. But I am trying, because I believe this team is capable of far more than it has shown, and I don’t wish to lower my own bar unduly.

The photo I chose for this article is a moment I’ll never forget. This season has featured many players trying, arguably to their detriment, including Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor playing through apparent injury and struggling to generate any consistent production. It rankles me, even as moments of… cautious play from Randy Arozarena can also be irksome. Trying is opaque, it’s what you make of it, but to me, on this roster, it is always one player, best symbolized in one play. Victor Robles, out of nowhere, to save a game that wrested for good the AL West from the Houston Astros. Robles has been mercurial his whole career, but never once could his effort be questioned. 2025 began on the heels of his breakout down the 2024 stretch. Within a week and a half, he’d been sidelined with a massive injury, hurling himself into the netting at Oracle Park to attempt to keep a grasp on a game the Mariners were letting slip away to the San Francisco Giants.

Trying is hard, embarrassing, messy, painful. But the lesson thousands of motivational messages and inspirational speeches failed to register in my brain is infuriatingly, eventually, undeniably true: trying is worth it. That means having expectations for yourself, and for others. We should still expect good things from this ballclub, just as they should expect them of themselves. 65 games remain for these Mariners to right the ship and show us they are built for bigger things.

Let’s try to enjoy them together.

Welcome back to the second half of the race to October. Hope you all enjoyed the break, where the National League got blanked out by the American League, but, hey, it’s all in good fun, right?

Now we return to Truist Park, where the Atlanta Braves (55-40) will take on the Texas Rangers (49-47). Chris Sale (2.20 ERA) will be kicking things off for the Braves. As of right now, Sale has been the team’s ace and most consistent starter. Across his 17 games this season, he’s held nine wins and six losses, a 1.11 WHIP and 117 strikeouts.

The problem when Sale is on the mound isn’t his execution. In fact, he’s one of the most anticipated pitchers in the rotation to get the job done on the defensive side. It’s the inconsistencies on offense that shake his win record. Add that to the fact that the Rangers’ offense has been hitting better against left-handed pitchers as of late, and we have a toss-up of a performance.

The plan is simple but true. Sale will need the offensive production to step up big time in this second half to set the tone early and break old habits.

Facing the Braves will be Rangers’ Cal Quantrill (3.11 ERA). Quantrill has mainly been used as a reliever this season, starting in two games with a 14% strikeout rate. He’s a solid arm, but not as consistent, and sometimes limited in his pitch count when things start going awry.

On paper, the Braves’ offense has what it takes to leave with a win tonight. But it’s just a matter of what version of themselves they decide to show up with coming out of the All-Star break.

Game Info

Game Date/Time: Friday, July 17, 7:15 p.m. ET

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: BravesVision

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan, Los Bravos

The Guardians made it past the All-Star break; how should we view what happened so far?

Despite being without our future Hall of Fame third baseman, José Ramírez, and the player who was leading the team in slugging percentage and home runs prior to injury, Angel Martínez, for over a month now, the Guardians have weathered the most difficult parts of their schedule and still rest atop the AL Central division tied with the White Sox. Coming into the season, expectations were once again that this would be a team that is carried by their pitching and defense, and would have to find enough offense to chalk up wins. Today, we’re going to take a look at how this Guardians team has managed those expectations thus far in 2026.

We’re going to look at the 5 major categories of team performance – starting pitching, relief pitching, hitting, base running, and defense – and briefly discuss whether the 2026 team has met general preseason expectations for each category, or fallen below/exceeded them. First, let’s look at the starting rotation.

Starting Rotation: Exceeded Expectations

There were some inconsistencies in the rotation. Slade Cecconi got off to a bad start, and Tanner Bibee has thrown a couple clunkers here and there. But Parker Messick is a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender, and both he and Gavin Williams are both in the Cy Young conversation. Joey Cantillo has quietly been incredibly solid as well. All in all, the rotation has the 7th best ERA in MLB and has thrown the 3rd most innings in MLB (just 0.1 IP behind the Dodgers in 2nd place). I think we expected them to be fairly good given the finish they had to the 2025 season, but where I believe they have exceeded expectations is specifically in the ability to get deeper into games while also maintaining a top 10 ERA in the sport.

Bullpen: Below Expectations

In 2024, the Guardians’ bullpen was so good, it almost can’t be described. They were 1st in fWAR and ERA by a large margin. In 2025, they were 3rd in MLB in both of those categories. So far in 2026, their ERA is 8th in MLB and their fWAR is 12th. This season has had a couple of uncharacteristic bullpen collapses (such as late innings with 4+ BBs leading to blown leads), and a couple of injuries haven’t helped. Hunter Gaddis missed basically all of spring training and the beginning of the regular season, and Erik Sabrowski missed the end of May and most of June as well. This season hasn’t been without its positives though. Both Daniel Espino and Franco Aleman have had promising starts to their MLB careers in 2026, and of course 2026 AL All-Star Cade Smith has been as dominant of a closer as you can ask for. While a bullpen ERA of 3.74 that’s 8th in all of MLB is definitely a good bullpen, I do believe this aspect of team performance has fallen below expectations purely because the previous 2 seasons set the expectations so high.

Hitting: Exceeded Expectations*

This section is a bit complicated because there’s a lot of nuance here, but I’ll try to go through it quickly. The 2025 Guardians offense was bottom 3 in almost every single meaningful offensive category – the wRC+ was 87 and the OPS was .670; they ranked 28th and 29th respectively. We knew in the offseason there was going to be a lot of promising youngsters filling in some holes in the offense coming into 2026, but young hitters can be incredibly volatile. For those reasons, I think the expectations were low coming into 2026. On June 13th, three of the Guardians’ five most productive hitters (at that time) all left the game with injuries. José Ramírez – the superstar, Angel Martínez – the team’s leader in home runs and slugging percentage, and Chase DeLauter – arguably the team’s best pure hitter, all were going to be out for multiple weeks. Going into that game, the team’s wRC+ was at 95, and the team OPS was 0.688, which ranked 22nd and 27th respectively in MLB. The bottom line is that still isn’t very good, but it was a meaningful improvement over 2025. Losing those players has driven the same offensive totals down over the last 4 weeks leading up to the break (wRC+ of 92 is 25th and an OPS of 0.679 is 29th). But considering they’ve been missing multiple weeks of key offensive players, I do think overall that the offense has looked better than I expected, even though the current numbers don’t really show it.

Baserunning: Met Expectations

The 2026 Guardians team is 5th in MLB in SBs at 93 and 7th in the MLB in BsR* on FanGraphs at 5.2. There really aren’t any surprises here. The team looked as aggressive on the basepaths as I would have expected. José was stealing bases left and right. And a number of other players like Travis Bazzana, Chase Delauter, and Angel Martínez also have looked great on the bases this season.

Defense: Met Expectations

This is very similar to the previous section. In 2026, the Guardians rank 8th in MLB by FRV (9) and 9th in MLB by FanGraphs Def rating (8.6). Steven Kwan is still playing elite defense in multiple OF positions. Daniel Schneemann has put himself into the conversation for the Utility Gold Glove award in the AL. And how can we not mention the catching tandem (Austin Hedges and Patrick Bailey) for not only being good defensive catchers, but also for their pitch calling and game management, which have helped the pitching staff succeed.

Our Best Kept Secret

If you’ve gotten this far, you’ve probably noticed one name that hasn’t been mentioned yet. You could even argue it’s the name that probably should be brought up more than all the others, and you aren’t wrong. I’ve been thinking about this section the entire time I’ve been putting this piece together, because if you want to talk about exceeding expectations, I don’t know if one single member of this roster personifies that more than Brayan Rocchio – a player who struggled badly in 2024 and was sent back to AAA after a difficult start to 2025, with almost every single fan begging to get him off the roster. He turned himself into a player who went into the All-Star Break ranked as the 9th best position player in the American League by fWAR (2.9). 

He could’ve been mentioned as a key player in every single one of these position player sections. A 113 wRC+. A 9.9 Def rating on FanGraphs. Stealing 15 out of 20 bases to start the season. It’s really felt like every single time our backs have been against the wall, Brayan Rocchio has been there to save the day. Clutch hitting, walkoffs, game saving defensive plays – he has done it all. I don’t think I can say enough, but if there’s one more thing I think should be said it’s this: Brayan Rocchio, I have no earthly idea how you were not invited to the All-Star Game.

Conclusion

Most preseason projections had the Guardians in the mid-upper 70s in wins. I think a lot of fans felt that those predictions underestimated this team, and so far the Guardians have proven that belief correct. Despite injuries to some of the most important players, we’re tied for 1st place in the division because of strong pitching, defense, baserunning, and some unexpected contributions from young players. 

The Guardians have the easiest strength of schedule in MLB for the second half of the season. Chase DeLauter has been on a hitting tear since returning from his injury, and José Ramírez and Angel Martínez are both expected back in a few short weeks. We aren’t all the way through these setbacks yet, but we’ve put ourselves in an excellent position heading into the second half.

Glossary:

*Base Running (BsR) is FanGraphs’ all encompassing base running statistic that turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average. It is the combination of Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), Weighted Grounded Into Double Play Runs (wGDP), and Ultimate Base Running (UBR), which are all available on the leaderboards and player pages on FanGraphs.

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Let's kick off the second half of the MLB season on a high note!

These are my top looks to leave the yard this Friday evening, featuring Alec Burleson showing value in the MLB player props. 

Here are my favorite home run props for July 17.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Alec Burleson	+390
Pete Crow-Armstrong	+232
Matt Olson	+295
💲Today's HR parlay	+6325

Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+390)

The worst-rated pitcher on the board is Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has been atrocious this season, especially against left-handed hitters. Lefties are generating a 43.5% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate against him, while posting a .586 xSLG and .415 xwOBA.

St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, along with 100% arsenal coverage against Kelly's pitch mix. In 15 elite-rated matchups this season, Burleson has homered 20% of the time. It's a small sample, but an impressive hit rate.

Despite a slight cold streak, Burleson has still been generating a 54.4% hard-hit rate and 10.9% barrel rate over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching.

I have no respect for Kelly, and I think he gets trounced in this one, starting with a Burleson nuke.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ARID, CARD

Home run pick: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+232)

Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong finds himself in a mouthwatering spot in his first game back from the All-Star break, as he draws Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober. PCA owns an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season dataset, where he also covers 100% of Ober's pitch mix.

Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Crow-Armstrong posted a .366 BA, .714 SLG, 1.197 OPS, .347 ISO, and a 13.3% barrel rate.

Ober has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season, allowing them to elevate the hell out of the baseball while generating plenty of hard contact. Over the last 60 left-handed hitters he's faced, they've produced a 44% hard-hit rate, 16.7% barrel rate, and an 81.3% elevation rate.

On top of that, they've posted a .336 xBA, .826 xSLG, and .346 xwOBA.

With that much elevation against Ober, Crow-Armstrong should be in line for extra bases, if not a nuke missile.

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MNNT, MARQ

Home run pick: Matt Olson (+295)

I am currently foaming at the mouth over another pitcher who has been giving up a ton of elevation to left handed hitters, and Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson stands out in this matchup.

Cal Quantrill takes the mound for the Texas Rangers tonight, and he has struggled mightily against left-handed bats this season. He's allowed them to produce a 42% hard-hit rate, 16% barrel rate, and a 75.4% elevation rate. They also own a .504 xSLG and .390 xwOBA against him.

In a small sample of 42 left-handed hitters faced on the road, Quantrill has allowed a 69.2% fly-ball rate, 11.5% line-drive rate, and 30% hard-hit rate.

Prior to the break, Olson was swinging one of the hottest bats in baseball against right-handed pitching. Over his last 30 at-bats, he owns a .593 SLG, .860 OPS, .408 ISO, while producing a 55.6% hard-hit rate and a 16.7% barrel rate.

We all know what Olson is capable of, and with Quantrill getting destroyed by left-handed hitters, I have to back the Braves star.

• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVsn, CW33

Today’s HR parlay

Alec Burleson	Bet Now +6325
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Matt Olson

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Royals put a frustrating first half behind them and open the second half by hosting the Padres. This is just the fourth time ever the Padres have come to town, with the Royals dropping the series the last time they played at the K in 2024.

The Padres have a $200+ million payroll, but after a hot 19-9 start, they have struggled. They had an eight-game losing streak in late June/early July, but won five of eight heading into the break.

San Diego Padres (48-48) vs. Kansas City Royals (38-59) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Padres: 3.95 runs scored/game (30th in MLB), 4.40 runs allowed/game (12th)

Royals: 4.24 runs scored/game (21st), 5.14 runs allowed/game (27th)

The Padres’ lineup has been mysteriously bad this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 55 games to begin the year without a home run. Manny Machado got off to a dreadful start, but is hitting .279/.372/.586 with eight home runs in his last 30 games to get his batting average over the Mendoza Line. Gavin Sheets is hitting just .176/.263/.235 against lefties, but is hitting .279/.377/.543on the road. Xander Bogaerts has a 58.5 percent groundball rate, second-highest among qualified hitters.

Ty France is a Royals-killer, hitting .368/.445/.604 with eight home runs in 39 games in his career against them. Former Royals catcher Freddy Fermin is hitting just .152/.252/.268 in 58 games and has been out with a concussion.

Only the Nationals have stolen more bases than the Padres. The Padres generally rate well defensively, particularly Bogaerts at shortstop.

Michael King is 12th in the National League in ERA, but he has the ninth-highest walk rate among qualified starters. King has a reverse split this year, with lefties hitting just .201/.288/.299 against him. He throws a sinker, change up, sweeper, and a 94 mph four-seamer.

Griffin Canning had a nice season with the Mets last year, but he has been a mess with the Padres this year. He has the third-worst ERA (6.47) of any pitcher with at least ten starts. He has pitched more than five innings just once this year, and has been used as a “bulk reliever” in some recent appearances. Opponents are hitting .333 against his change up this year. The Royals have not yet announced a starter for Saturday, although Stephen Kolek could be activated off the family emergency list.

Germán Márquez had a 6.70 ERA last year with the Rockies, the second-worst of any pitcher with at least 100 innings. He moved on to the Padres and got off to a decent start before missing two months with a forearm injury. He has pitched just 12 innings in his three starts since returning. Lefties are hitting .273/.377/.557 against the right-hander this year.

The Padres’ bullpen has a 3.68 ERA, sixth-lowest in baseball after leading all of baseball last year. Mason Miller has been the best reliever in baseball, according to fWAR, striking out a ridiculous 48.5 percent of all batters he has faced. Yuki Matsui has a 14.9 percent walk rate, ninth-highest among relievers, and a 58.8 percent flyball rate that is third-highest. Adrian Morejon has a 64.4 percent groundball rate, third-highest in baseball. Kyle Hart has given up ten runs in his last 11.2 innings.

The Padres have the kind of roster that should be competing, but they have failed to turn that talent into results. Their negative run differential and 43-53 Pythagorean record suggest this team has been fortunate to remain in the mix. Their offensive struggles may be just what the Royals’ pitching staff needs to face, but if the Royals find themselves down late, they’ll have to face a shutdown bullpen.

The Colorado Rockies are a team in the midst of a rebuild. With this in mind, the staff at Purple Row thought it would be useful to revisit the “State of the Position” series that we ran in March to see where things stand. We’ve asked authors of the spring articles to re-evaluate their earlier remarks with an eye toward the August 3 trade deadline.

Entering the season, it seemed like Willi Castro would be the latest veteran to try to be the Rockies second baseman. Hoping for a resurgence, Castro, a former All-Star with good baserunning and utility skills, signed a two-year, $12.8 million deal with the Rockies in January.

I had Castro pegged as the starter with Edouard Julien, Ryan Ritter and Adael Amador rotating as the backups. Instead, Castro has turned out to be the true utility player the Rockies love, especially under the new front office. He’s made 38 starts at second base, but that comes in second to Julien’s 48. Together, they have started 87.8% of Colorado’s games at second base.

They have added speed and production with mixed results defensively. But so far, the additions have translated to an upgrade at the position. In 2025, Colorado’s second basemen combined to rank No. 29 in on-base percentage (.267) and OPS (.550), No. 28 in batting average (.213) and slugging percentage (.283) and tied for No. 26 in homers (eight) and RBI (53).

This year, at the All-Star break, the Rockies second basemen have combined to climb up 20 spots to No. 9 in on-base percentage (.332), and improved to No. 14 in RBI (38), No. 16 in batting average (. 246) and homers (16), No. 17 in OPS (.690) and No. 22 in slugging percentage (.358).

While a true comparison will have to wait until the end of the season, the improvement in the power and ability to get on base is remarkable. 

The 2B duo

Castro has out-performed Julien at the plate this season, while also making 35 starts at four other positions (shortstop, third base, first base and left field), in addition to spending a little time in center field. On any given day, he’s got around 10 gloves with him and prides himself on being “prepared for anything.” 

Castro is hitting .260/.251/.378 with a .709 OPS, seven homers, 13 doubles, 37 RBI and 40 runs scored. He is just one homer away from tying the total of all eight players who played second base for the Rockies last season. His most recent homer came in the form of a two-run shot vs. the Giants on July 9

His sprint speed is in the 77th percentile at 28.3, even if it doesn’t show up tremendously in his stolen base total of six. While his arm strength also ranks in the 77th percentile at 88.5, his range (OAA) is -3 (20th percentile). 

Julien doesn’t have the power, the versatility, the speed, or the defense that Castro does, but he does own an effective plate approach with an 18.9% chase rate, which is one of the best in MLB. Whereas Castro has a 27.8% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate, Julien walks at a 13.8% rate and strikes out 25.9% of the time. 

Unfortunately for Julien, whom the Rockies acquired in a trade with the Twins in January, it doesn’t always translate to production. He is hitting .222/.335/.366 with three homers, seven doubles, one triple, 33 runs scored and 20 RBI. He lacks the sprint speed at 26.7 (32nd percentile) and his defense leaves much to be desired with a -4 OAA (11th percentile) and 77.3 arm strength. 

That being said, he’s still capable of some highlight-reel plays.

Julien had a short stretch where he was hot in the leadoff spot, but has dropped down in the lineup. Meanwhile, Castro has worked out nicely as the leadoff bat when the Rockies face lefties.

The backups and future

Three other Rockies have slotted in at second base so far this season. Chad Stevens was called up for a few weeks in May and June, making seven starts. Utilityman Tyler Freeman has made four starts, and Ritter made one start in March. None have done enough, or had sufficient opportunities, to make a mark.

Ritter and Amador have both struggled with injuries and bounced around the farm system in their rehab assignments. Amador, who missed some time with a leg injury, has put up good stats in Triple-A (.257/.363/.393), but he has yet to prove they can hold up at the MLB level. Ritter has only played 27 games with the Isotopes, joining them after recovering from an ankle injury on June 16. He has also played a bit of left field in an effort to diversify his fielding profile.

Barring trades, the Rockies second base crew is set. Castro, 29, has one more year on his contract. Still pre-arbitration eligible, Julien, who is 27 and making $792,750 this season, will remain under team control until at least 2029.

Depending on how the season plays out, and if the Rockies mantra of versatility sticks around, the Rockies could have the kinds of players they want in Castro and Julien. Of course, the second base bar is low considering the struggles of the past few seasons. Julien and Castro, or a player yet to be determined, could continue to raise that bar even higher as the team fights to become a contender. For now, the Julien-Castro duo is part of the reason why the Rockies are playing better baseball in 2026 than they did in 2025.

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The second part of this terrible season kicks off against a Mariners team that’s straining to match their success from a year ago. Those 2025 Mariners? AL West champs. Cal Raleigh hit 60 dingers and they were 4th in the AL in runs scored to boost a decent pitching staff. These 2026 Mariners? 1.5 games back of the division and never more than 4 games over .500. Cal Raleigh? Just 9 homers and one of the worst regulars in the entire sport. They’re 12th in the AL in runs scored, 26th in MLB. Meanwhile, the Giants are playing for 2028 and beyond, when their highly regarded farm system should start producing results.

(Seriously, go listen to Roger’s There R Giants podcast with MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis.)

So, rather than delve into the hows and whys of these two disappointing teams, let’s do some trade talk about a trade that will almost definitely not happen. In looking at potential trade partners who could take on some of the Giants’ bigger contracts, I’ve conceded that at the end of the day the Giants would have to do contract swaps; and, given that Zack & Buster will need to once again rebuild the rotation for next season (or post-lockout) following Robbie Ray’s departure, a contract they should probably take on is one of a veteran pitcher just to guarantee themselves some innings. And that led me to two names: Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola and Seattle’s Luis Castillo.

But the thing is, Aaron Nola’s contract runs through 2030 and his age-37 season while Castillo’s runs through 2027 unless he pitches 180 innings in which case it vests for 2028. Now, there’s a decent chance of a lockout so that vesting option would seem to be unimportant, but the Mariners seem like they’re doing an annual dance with their payroll and probably want to ditch a pitcher they have already shuffled away from the rotation.

Could the Giants use their former prospect to stanch the bleeding they’re likely to face here over these final 66 games and however many games are played in 2027? I don’t see why not. Although Castillo has been on a steady decline since his age-28 season of 2021 with the Reds — 3.9 fWAR then followed by 3.7, 3.3, 2.3, 2.6, and a projected 1.5 this season — he still has a lot of qualities that could help the Giants’ rotation. They are:

• Two fastballs — a four-seamer and a sinker — which both average 95 mph (65th percentile)
• A 7.2 BB% (70th percentile)
• A 20.8 K% (37th percentile)** — hold on, this low value is still a positive and I’ll explain in a moment.
• Innings eater (2023-2025: 197, 175.1, 180.2)

Yes, he’s in clear decline. He averaged 97 mph with his fastball from 2020-2022, then 96 2023-2024, and he’s down to 95 the past two seasons, his strike rate through age 30: 9.86. Ages 31-33: 8.48.

He’s not the pitcher he once was and he’s due to make $24.15 million next season (and 2028, if the option vests). That’s less than what Robbie Ray is scheduled to make here in his final season with the Giants (his age-34 season, which is what Castillo’s age would be in 2027) and it carries a lower Competitive Balance Tax number because of the annual average of his 5-year, $108 million deal he signed after the Mariners traded for him: $21.6 million.

We don’t know what the CBT will look like in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, of course, but if the Giants aren’t going to move Logan Webb (which they should) then they’ll need to add to the rotation until the next competitive window opens. But rather than pay today’s free agent market prices for pitching, taking on contracts valued from a previous generation makes a lot more sense.

Plus, the Giants can begin to make amends for the Casey McGehee trade.

Now, a trade like this would probably require a third team, because it’s hard to imagine the Mariners trading for Robbie Ray after trading him away, but being a pass-through for another team who needs a pitcher like Ray?

According to this MLB.com article, the Mariners need a right-handed bat and a proven reliever. The Giants, of course, don’t have a proven reliever, except for maybe Caleb Kilian, who has been great in any inning that’s not the 9th inning (seriously, look at these splits); but, better yet, they have a really solid right-handed bat option in Heliot Ramos.

So, on the one hand, you could see the Giants being willing to send Robbie Ray to the Mariners for Luis Castillo and a prospect or two (16 of Seattle’s top 30 are pitchers, btw) and you could see the financialization model Jerry Dipoto seems to swear by motivating the Mariners’ side (they get out from the 2027 commitment to Castillo), but in order for it to really give Seattle what they need (financial flexibility), you could see them needing a bit more.

Would Matt Chapman want to live in Seattle for half the season? That could be another possibility if the Mariners want to actually use their financial flexibility to make a bigger splash. I don’t think T-Mobile Park is a good fit for Chapman, of course, but Seattle’s contributions from third base this season have been dire: a 75 wRC+ and -5.4 Defensive Runs Above Average. Hard to see Seattle trading into a long-term deal for a player in his (at least, when tracking age to history) decline phase, but I admit I’m having a hard time figuring out who that third team would be in this trade pitch of:

Giants receive

SP Luis Castillo
2 Mariners prospect (Teddy McGraw & Jared Sundstrom?)
1 Team #3 prospect

Mariners receive

OF Heliot Ramos
RP Caleb Kilian
1 Team #3 prospect (which goes to the Giants)

Team #3 receives

SP Robbie Ray

Anyway, that was a lot more fun than going through the actual series. With maybe 30 more wins left in their schedule, let’s maximize the entertainment value in the time we have left.

Series Overview

Who: San Francisco Giants (41-55) at Seattle Mariners (48-49)
Where: T-Mobile Park | Seattle, Washington
When: Friday at 7:10pm PT, Saturday at 5:08pm PT, Sunday at 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: Fox TV (Saturday)

Projected starters
Friday: Landen Roupp (RHP 6-8, 4.27 ERA) vs. Bryce Miller (RHP 4-3, 2.18 ERA)
Saturday: Logan Webb (RHP 5-7, 3.86 ERA) vs. Bryan Woo (RHP 7-6, 4.23 ERA)
Sunday: Robbie Ray (LHP 8-6, 3.38 ERA) vs. Logan Gilbert (RHP 7-6, 3.32 ERA)

Players to watch

Mariners

Julio Rodriguez: He’s expected to come off the concussion IL during this series after missing basically all of July. He wound up there after taking a throw off the back of his helmet during a double play. Ouch. The 25-year old hit .267/.324/.474 with 32 homers and 30 steals last year, but this year, he’s down a bit to .259/.323/.427 and just 14 homers and 12 steals. Now, it’s entirely possible that he kicks off the second part of the season with a bang and goes on a tear that brings his 2026 season line closer to his final results in 2025. The Giants seem like the perfect team to get him going.

Logan Gilbert: Since giving up 7 runs to the Padres back on May 16th, he’s got a 2.20 ERA (2.35 FIP) over his last 9 starts with a 5:1 strikeouts to walks ratio in 57.1 IP. The Mariners are 7-2 over this stretch, the only two losses coming on the road, when the Guardians & Rays both scored 4 off of him.

Randy Arozarena: Since June 1st, he’s hitting .279/.395/.471 with 5 homers, 5 doubles, and 19 RBI. His season line of .286/.380/.458 has him on pace for the best season of his career. Remarkably, he’s just 9-for-51 (.176) in his career against the Giants.

Giants

Rafael Devers: I can’t remember where I saw it so plainly stated, but it was, essentially, that despite the Giants and Mariners being very similar organizations, right down to the pitcher’s park quality of their home stadiums, there was one key difference in that regard: righties hit better in Oracle Park and lefties hit better in T-Mobile Park. So, it was with that in mind that I went straight to Devers’ split and lo! In 21 career games (95 PA), he’s slashing .298/.379/.560 with 6 homers and 4 doubles. He also has 3 stolen bases. You know, since the 1-year anniversary of the blockbuster trade, after every pundit put on his critical hat to say how much of a flop it had been, he’s hitting .298/.400/.702 with 10 homers and 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts in his last 100 plate appearances. L. O. L.

Bryce Eldridge: He was 6-for-24 on the homestand, but it felt a little quiet. He was 6-for-24 on the last road trip, too, and that felt a little quiet. 12-for-48 with a pair of homers, a pair of homers, and just 6 walks isn’t what we had in mind, I’m sure, so let’s see what he does against the three best starters in Seattle’s rotation.

Logan Webb: His July is canceling out his stellar June and rekindling the thought that his best days are behind him. He’s 0-1 with a 5.29 career ERA in 3 starts against the Mariners, but the only time he’s started a game in T-Mobile Park was 2021. Personally, I’m sticking to GPT’s simple assessment:

The Giants’ pitching system has created a series of Logan Webbs. Can the real Logan Webb distinguish himself again?

Prediction time

The Giants will not trade for Luis Castillo.