The Cleveland Guardians have come to life on offense, scoring 24 runs over the first three games of this series.
They are -140 favorites to take the finale. My Twins vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks believe that line is a little short.
Who will win Twins vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (-140)
Gavin Williamsowns a 2.39 xFIP over the last 30 days, which does not align with his 4.70 ERA.
He has pitched well, and this is a great matchup for the numbers to finally reflect that.
The Minnesota Twins rank 27th with a .131 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks. They’re not hitting for power right now, and homers are the one thing that has made Williams vulnerable.
The Cleveland Guardiansare fourth in OPS vs. RHP the past 10 games, and star Jose Ramirez just returned. Williams should get the support he needs.
The forecast calls for weather in the mid-70s with slight winds blowing in. Small boost to the pitchers.
Twins vs Guardians odds
Moneyline: Twins +120 | Guardians -140
Run line: Twins +1.5 (-170) | Guardians -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Twins vs Guardians trend
Cleveland has hit the Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.85 units, 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Guardians.
How to watch Twins vs Guardians and game info
Location
Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date
Thursday, July 23, 2026
First pitch
1:10 p.m. ET
TV
Twins.TV, Guardians.TV
Twins starting pitcher
Taj Bradley (9-4, 3.85 ERA)
Guardians starting pitcher
Gavin Williams (10-5, 4.00 ERA)
Twins vs Guardians latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens continues to lock up his team’s fleet of young wings.
The Celtics reportedly agreed to a three-year, $15 million extension with 22-year-old Jordan Walsh. Boston previously picked up Walsh’s $2.4 million option for the 2026-27 season, and now has Walsh on the books through the 2029-30 season. HoopsHype reported the deal includes a third-year team option.
Ron Harper Jr. inked a four-year, $13.7. million extension at the start of the summer. Baylor Scheierman is extension eligible next summer, while Hugo Gonzalez has three years remaining on his rookie deal. The Celtics will pay none of those players more than three percent of the salary cap in any of those seasons.
For Walsh, there’s a bit of security after riding a bit of a playing time roller coaster in his first three seasons in Boston. For the team, it’s a low-cost, high-reward opportunity given that Walsh is still young for his experience level and has had moments where he displayed All-Defense potential on the court.
Walsh appeared in 68 games for Boston last season, including 25 starts. The majority of those starts came in November and December when Walsh had rivals raving about his defensive potential. Lakers guard Austin Reaves went as far as to suggest that he could see Walsh “being one of the best defenders in the league,” after an early December tilt.
Walsh’s playing time ebbed and flowed during calendar year 2026, but he finished the 2025-26 campaign strong and carved out a playoff role. Walsh might have been the team’s best defender against Tyrese Maxey and logged 12.7 minutes per game in seven appearances against Philadelphia.
Walsh and the rest of Boston’s stable of young wings will get every opportunity to step into a larger role after the Celtics traded away All-NBA wing Jaylen Brown this summer.
Walsh was the 38th pick in the 2023 draft. He appeared in just nine games during his rookie season when Boston’s talent-filled roster won the 2024 title, then played 52 games in his sophomore campaign. Last season he averaged 5.6 points, 4 rebounds, 0.7 steals, and 0.5 blocks over 17.8 minutes per game.
Walsh ranked in the 84th percentile among wings, holding opponents to 2.3 percent below expected output during his floor time.
It's Day 24 and still no sign or peep from LeBron James about where his next NBA destination will be for his 24th season.
If it feels like this process has been drawn out, it's because it kind of has. And that could be intentional.
It's been thrown out into the realm of possibilities that James and company are purposefully stalling the decision to stick it to NBA commissioner Adam Silver after he pleaded for James to rush into his choice so the season schedule can be finalized and released.
"LeBron's crew was probably ready to make an announcement... they were probably comfortable making an announcement as early as last week that they were there (in New York) and then people were like telling them what to do," Baskin said. "There's a little bit of irritation. Irritated was the word that I was told, irritated by the commissioner pushing them."
James is no longer courting teams and has all the information he needs to make a decision, according to USA TODAY Sports' Lorenzo Reyes.
USA TODAY Sports is tracking the latest news, rumors and updates for all the things happening in real-time and behind-the-scenes for LeBron James' next major basketball decision. Here's everything you need to know on Thursday, July 23 about James and his impending decision:
Welcome to the 2025–26 installment of The Hockey News - Vancouver Canucks’ Player Report Card Series. Throughout the off-season, THN will conduct a deep dive into how each member of the Canucks performed throughout the 2025–26 season. Today’s article will focus on defenceman Victor Mancini.
Mancini's 2025–26 Season Review
Mancini spent the 2025-26 campaign split between the AHL and NHL. He played 33 games with the Abbotsford Canucks, producing four goals and 12 points. As for the NHL, Mancini recorded three assists in 24 games while averaging 13:44 of ice time.
Overall, it was clear that Adam Foote and his staff were unwilling to give Mancini opportunities at the NHL level. He played over 16 minutes on seven occasions and played under 12 minutes eight times. Mancini was also a healthy scratch throughout the season, which included the final three games of the campaign.
As for his other stats, Mancini blocked 26 shots and threw 28 hits. He also registered 14 shots on net and had 32 shot attempts. Finally, Mancini got into his first career NHL fight, which he arguably won against Brandon Duhaime.
Overall, Mancini looked more confident in the AHL than the NHL. It is clear that Manny Malhotra trusts the 24-year-old, as he was a significant part of Abbotsford's Calder Cup championship. With Malhotra now behind the bench in Vancouver, Mancini could see more opportunities than he did during the 2025-26 season.
Mancini's 2025–26 Letter Grade
The 2025-26 campaign was not kind to Mancini. He didn't develop as planned, partly because of how he was deployed game to game. That being said, it is clear that the organization still has faith in him, as Mancini signed a two-year extension at the end of March.
Ultimately, Mancini receives an C grade for the 2025-26 season.
Mar 17, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks defenseman Victor Mancini (90) puts his helmet back on after a scrum against the Florida Panthers in the first period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images
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The Phoenix Suns have positioned themselves well heading into this upcoming season. With an underdog mentality last year, they proved the doubters wrong and exceeded every preseason expectation. This led them to the playoffs, and even if it was a sweep at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder, it was a refreshing year compared to some previous ones.
By making this leap, though, it gave the fans something to root for and be excited for heading into this offseason. That is when we saw most of our players retained, along with some new faces, including Miles Bridges and Luke Kennard. That said, with this season full of excitement and the Summer League now over, the waiting period begins for all of us. So today we are going to dive in and explore three parts of this Suns team that I think will be exciting to dissect once the fall does eventually hit.
1. The Center Rotation Debate
Obviously, this is going to be a discussion that will be talked about all season long. As we know, the Suns have three bigs on their team, and all will be eyeing some playing time this year. Mark Williams was brought back on a solid deal that presumably makes him the starting center. Still, we also saw flashes of Khaman Maluach in the summer league, and we trust Oso Ighodaro.
Restricted free agent Mark Williams intends to sign a three-year, $38 million contract to return to the Phoenix Suns, sources tell ESPN. The deal is fully guaranteed for Williams, who averaged 11 points, 8 rebounds and 1 block in 23.6 minutes per game as the Suns starting center. pic.twitter.com/3hpQ9KlZNi
This will definitely lead to some nights where one guy starts but another finishes, either because of performance or because one of them is in foul trouble. With Ighodaro’s contract also being so cheap on the club option, there is no reason to sell him at this point. Maluach, since he performed well in the Summer League, also needs some room to develop, as he is the future at the center position if he pans out to be what the front office expects.
From my understanding, it will probably be Williams who gets the short end of the stick once Maluach or Ighodaro proves to be the true starter and the other is a solid backup. That, though, will take time and most likely not occur this season, leaving the possibility of one of them getting the lesser end of the stick at some point of the season.
Will Ott utilize some double-big options with Ighodaro and Maluach, as well as Khaman’s ability to stretch the floor? That will also be something to keep a keen eye on, especially against bigger teams or ones that play very physically.
2. Jalen Green in a fully healthy year?
As we all know, Jalen Green arrived in Phoenix and, before the preseason even started, was dealing with a hamstring injury. This left some questions for the guard before he even stepped on the court for the team. Many were already looking at the fit with star Devin Booker and didn’t like it; this, for sure, didn’t help that case.
That said, we did see Green return to the team, even if only for 32 games; he showed glimpses of growth. He did have some stretches where he was hot from three (and cold), but he also made some nice plays defensively, using his quickness to generate steals and points on the other end.
His transition game seemed to be the spark his game needed and what the team needed when he was out. So, looking ahead to this year, I hope to see some of that still translate in his second year in the Valley. I hope to see him also develop a bit more of a passing touch, so he doesn’t have so many “I get the ball, I am going to shoot it” moments.
Will he be the perfect fit on this team? I don’t know, but I am willing to see it through this year and see if he can have a healthy season if it all comes together.
Jalen Green Game Is Beautiful 🥹🔥.
Jalen Green is one of the NBA’s most explosive young scorers, known for his elite athleticism, quick first step, and ability to create his own shot. A dynamic three-level scorer, he thrives in transition, attacks the rim with authority, and… pic.twitter.com/rLltgvhvQW
Both players impressed in the summer league and seem poised to grow in an area of need for the Suns: the power forward position. Even with them trading for Miles Bridges to presumably start on day one, I do believe that long-term, either Peat or Fleming will take that job, maybe even by the season’s end.
Fleming brings exactly what this team needs off the bench to replace Royce O’Neale’s value. He is a solid three-point scorer and uses his size and length to generate turnovers and get even more buckets. I fear he is going to be someone the Suns want to utilize early in the year to fill that void if they lose by giving up so much three-point shooting.
Rasheer Fleming has some freakishly long arms and it's sick to watch him protect the rim as a 6'9 rookie…
With Peat, I do think he will be stuffed down the rotation to start, but with that impressive summer league run, he proved he was way better than his selection at pick 30. The former McDonald’s All-American was said to be a high lottery pick before going to the University of Arizona, so this seems like a home run swing from Brian Gregory and company.
If Peat can be another interior scorer for this team alongside Bridges and even Ighodaro in some double-big instances, then the Suns fill a huge void from last year’s roster. Having the size, especially with the youth in the frontcourt, is key; as they grow, they need more help to go at guys like Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid, so this is a smart decision in my eyes.
I do predict that both will see plenty of time off the bench, as the Suns will be going deep into it this year. This will be a huge plus, as the young guys can get reps, while also allowing their key role players to get some rest and not overwork themselves throughout the season. Last year, a ton of injuries came late for Phoenix, and, partially, I think some of it was because the rookies did not get as much leeway as many anticipated.
My "Most Impressed By" Summer League First Team:
G- Jack Kayil G- Brayden Burries F- Chaney Johnson F- Koa Peat C- Khaman Maluach
MILWAUKEE, WI - JUNE 25: The Milwaukee Bucks head coach Taylor Jenkins and General Manager Jon Horst pose for a photo with the 2026 draft picks Brayden Burries and Nate Ament during the Bucks Draft Press Conference on June 25, 2026 at the Pieper-Hillside Boys & Girls Club in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
From at least one perspective, the Milwaukee Bucks’ offseason isn’t among the best in the Eastern Conference. Following the trade of the franchise’s best player ever and the Gary Trent Jr. fiasco, CBS Sports contributor Sam Quinn gave Jon Horst and the Bucks a C- for their efforts.
“Without control over their own first-round picks, they should have no fear of the relegation zone. They should be trading any veterans with a shred of value – most notably Myles Turner and Tyler Herro – for whatever draft capital they can get. They haven’t. They set themselves up for a disappointing offseason by waiting too long to trade Antetokounmpo, and sure enough, that’s how things played out,“ Quinn wrote.
Still, the Bucks weren’t given the worst grade in the conference, with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Brooklyn Nets receiving D+ and D grades, respectively.
Milwaukee might have dodged the basement of Quinn’s Eastern Conference grades by taking the Heat’s offer for Giannis instead of the Boston Celtics’, which was highlighted by Jaylen Brown (who was ultimately dealt to the Philadelphia 76ers). While the Heat package didn’t bring the Bucks back an All-NBA talent, it did give them multiple assets—players and picks—that they can work with down the line, whether they keep them on the roster or flip them for future assets. On top of that, they selected Brayden Burries with their number 10 overall pick, whose impressive play in the Las Vegas Summer League already has him looking like a draft steal.
Ultimately, while Quinn’s perspective might be that the Bucks aren’t in a good position, the Summer League play of Brayden Burries and Nate Ament, along with the expected growth of Kel’el Ware, Kasparas Jakučionis, and Jaime Jaquez—not to mention Tyler Herro’s impending second act—gives Bucks fans reason for hope that they should lean into as the 2026-27 approaches.
One thing that might make Quinn retroactively change his grade would be if the Bucks got Peyton Watson. Of course, there is a real possibility that, in order to acquire Watson, the Bucks might need to give up Ryan Rollins. What say you?
Brew Hoop community, what would you grade the Bucks’ offseason? Get your grading pens out and use them in the comment section below.
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - MAY 05: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers looks on during the second quarter of a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game One of the Second Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Paycom Center on May 05, 2026 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Joshua Gateley/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The NBA world is waiting on LeBron James to announce his next move, but thus far he remains determined to take his sweet, sweet time. Adam Silver is reportedly growing frustrated with James for delaying his free agency decision, because the league literally can’t make the 2026-27 schedule without knowing where he’s playing. Meanwhile, his agent Rich Paul is resolute that James won’t be rushed. It’s possible this could drag into August at this point.
Everyone is trying to put their own spin on why James is waiting so long to sign, and the latest rumor actually makes quite a bit of sense. James might be hoping one of his suitors will trade for Kyrie Irving or Anthony Davis, according to a report by Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo! Sports. James won championships with Irving and Davis as his top sidekicks earlier in his career, and he already knows he’s a great fit alongside them. The same can’t be said for James Harden or Jaylen Brown or Giannis Antetokounmpo right now.
If LeBron isn’t in love with any of his current options, it stands to reason that he would keep applying pressure to his suitors to mold the roster to his whims. He has plenty of time on his side: training camps don’t open until late September, and the first preseason games aren’t until October. The longer James waits, the more leash he has to try to force teams to trade for Irving or Davis.
James is basically the patron saint of player empowerment. He’s always used every bit of leverage to get what he wants from his teams, and when he starts losing leverage, he usually dips to a new franchise. James always has a long-term plan in mind when he changes teams, whether it’s teaming with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, trading the rights to No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love, or laying the groundwork for Anthony Davis’ trade to LA. It certainly passes the sniff test that he could be trying to pull some strings behind the scenes before he decides where he’s playing next season.
O’Connor’s report is mostly based on conjecture from people who work in the league. This isn’t a definitive demand from his camp yet. After 23 seasons of LeBron and counting, it just feels wholly reasonable that LeBron knows he has all the leverage in this situation, and he’s ready to use it to try to chase his fifth ring.
Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball are calling LeBron to join the Wolves
Minnesota has a strong case as the best basketball fit for LeBron. They have an elite backcourt in place with Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, they have a dominant defensive center in Rudy Gobert, and they have one of the league’s better defensive wings in Jaden McDaniels. The Wolves could use a playmaking power forward, and LeBron is still as good as it gets for that archetype.
Edwards and Ball are calling James to try to convince him to come to Minnesota, according to Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic:
Unfortunately, the idea of LeBron in Minnesota just doesn’t feel realistic to me. Is he really going to move his family to Minnesota? Is he really going to stay in the West? I don’t see it. It’s fun to dream about LeBron to the Wolves, but I’d be absolutely shocked if it happens.
LeBron odds now favor the Miami Heat
My local sportsbook app has the Heat as a 2-1 favorite to sign LeBron. This is only interesting in the sense that most people have viewed Cleveland as the frontrunner since he entered free agency. If you think LeBron is going anywhere other than Miami, there’s some money to be made right now.
I don’t care about gambling odds. If LeBron had to choose right now, I would agree that the Heat feels like his best landing spot. But what if he drags this out another month? At that point, the Warriors could trade for Anthony Davis, the Cavs could figure out a Kyrie Irving for James Harden trade, or a new suitor could do something else to pique his interest.
Why Aug. 6 looms as an important date
Anthony Davis is extension eligible on August 6. At that point, he can ask the Washington Wizards for a four-year, $275 million deal. It would be kind of crazy for the Wizards to give him that deal considering he still has two years left on his current contract, and he’s literally never played a game for the franchise. A four-year extension would lock up Davis until he’s 39 years old. Given that he’s already one of the least durable stars in the league, handing him that type of money that late in his career just feels like bad business for any team.
Of course, the Wizards also gave Trae Young $212 million this summer without another serious suitor for his services, so who knows what that franchise is ever thinking.
Let’s say the Wizards tell Davis they won’t give him an extension. At that point, does Davis try to force his way out of town to somewhere he can get paid? Could that location be to the team that will eventually sign LeBron?
Davis is represented by Rich Paul and Klutch Sports, just like LeBron. If LeBron drags this out, it’s possible he can get Davis paid, which means another big commission check for Paul.
LeBron James free agency prediction
I’ll say LeBron is going to the Heat. It just feels like his best chance to get his fifth ring. Where do you think he’s going? Vote in our poll below:
It really feels like LeBron is putting a lot of pressure on the Cavs in particular right now. Cleveland is coming off a conference finals appearance, but it doesn’t feel like the best fit at the moment. Harden and LeBron both like the ball in their hands, and Harden is completely incapable of being a high-volume spot-up shooter.
Can the Cavs pull off a trade for Kyrie? Would they possible trade Evan Mobley for Anthony Davis? It sounds wild, but it could be the difference in LeBron ending his career in Cleveland versus anywhere else.
LeBron has his thumb on the scale right now. It’s not about money. He’s still good enough to be a major contributor to a championship team. It’s sure starting to feel like he needs to use his influence, because he doesn’t have an obvious option on the board.
MIAMI, FLORIDA - JULY 7: Cade Gibson #58 of the Miami Marlins, Xavier Edwards #9 of the Miami Marlins, Otto Lopez #6 of the Miami Marlins, Esteury Ruiz #3 of the Miami Marlins, Heriberto Hernandez #13 of the Miami Marlins and Brian Navarreto #64 of the Miami Marlins celebrate after defeating the Seattle Mariners at loanDepot park on July 7, 2026 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Jasen Vinlove/Miami Marlins/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This makes the Marlins another potentially useful model for the Rockies to consider at as they embark on their own rebuild.
Don’t be afraid to search the scrap heap
Many of the most productive pieces of this 2026 Marlins season joined the team in small unheralded moves after being cast off from other teams.
The most valuable player on the team this year has been shortstop Otto Lopez. His 4.3 fWAR leads the team and is top ten in the majors. Lopez was acquired off of waivers from the San Francisco Giants in 2024.
Their starting catcher, Liam Hicks, was a Rule 5 Draft selection from the Detroit Tigers last season. He currently has a 122 wRC+ in 90 games.
Their most valuable outfielder this season has been Esteury Ruiz who has only played 62 games for the team. Ruiz was acquired via a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers after being optioned to the minors for his third organization.
The Marlins’ hottest hitter since the start of June has been Heriberto Hernández who signed a minor league contract with the organization before the 2025 season. Hernández had a 127 wRC+ in June and has followed it up with a 182 so far in July.
This is a team that opened up spots on the roster when it became clear that the previous group was not going to be successful and then scrounged around for diamonds in the rough from anywhere they could find them. The Marlins then gave runway to these players that had been abandoned by other organizations and have seen tangible on-field benefits from having done so.
These small moves on the margins are a good first step, and if the Marlins are any guide, the Rox should continue making more of them even as the overall quality of the roster improves.
Trade from positions of strength
The Marlins of 2024 were a decent mirror of the current Rockies. Whereas the Rockies have some decent hitting talent throughout the organization, they have very little pitching talent. The exact opposite of this was the case for the Marlins when their current front office took over before the 2024 season.
The previous Marlins administrations had established an ability to identify and develop pitching talent — that aspect of the team was not the problem. The primary driver of their 100-loss collapse in 2024 was a complete dearth of hitting talent in the organization from top to bottom.
Since then they have made a flurry of trades from their pitching depth to address their hitting concerns. They have moved all of Trevor Rogers, Jesus Luzardo, Ryan Weathers, and Edward Cabrera over the past two calendar years. That’s almost an entire starting rotation of quality pitching arms that the Marlins have shipped out since the 2024 deadline, and yet, because it was such an overwhelming strength before, they are still in the top half of essentially all pitching categories this season.
In exchange for those four arms, the Marlins were able to bring in 11 players headlined by two regulars in their big league outfield in the form of Owen Caissie and Kyle Stowers. Both Caissie (24) and Stowers (28) have been roughly league average hitters so far this season but have both shown promise for more. Caissie was a top 100 prospect before his debut last season, and Stowers was a National League All-Star a year ago.
“[Owen] Caissie reminds me so much of [Kyle] Tucker. The way that we are talking about Tucker… this guy is going to grow into that!”
Harold and Matt are big fans of Owen Caissie and the job @Marlins President of Baseball Ops. Peter Bendix has done constructing Miami’s roster. pic.twitter.com/oOzgBd1xTd
In addition to those two major league hitters, the Marlins string of starting pitcher trades have also infused their minor league system with a pile of interesting position player prospects. This group is headlined by defensive shortstop Starlyn Caba, slugging outfielder Dillon Lewis, and speedy middle infielder Cristian Hernández but includes many other names thought to have a chance to be useful big leaguers.
Looking through the Rockies organization, the closest analog to the Marlins recent organizational pitching strength is in the outfield. Between the major league team and Triple-A, the Rockies have a ton of names currently factoring into their outfield picture.
The strong seasons of youngsters Cole Carrigg (No. 4 PuRP), Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP), and Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP) give the front office the freedom to consider following the Marlins example. They could look to move multiple talented, but older, outfield bats before the 2027 season to address their dearth of organizational pitching talent.
Hold on to your controllable stars
The Marlins 2022 NL Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara has been the subject of trade rumors for many years. Despite how many other pitchers the Marlins have shipped out of Miami in recent years, they have turned down all offers for their ace.
Before that Cy Young campaign in 2022, Alcantara signed a five-year deal (with a club option for a sixth) worth only a guaranteed $56 million. This contract was widely thought to be below market value at the time but looked incredibly team friendly after his award winning 2022 season. The overall shine on the total deal took a hit as Alcantara lost a season to UCL surgery in mid-2023, but that did not stop other teams from attempting to buy-low on the Marlins ace.
This combination of standout performance, years of below market team control, and reduced trade value due to injury has led the Marlins rebuff the myriad trade offers they received for Alcantara.
They are now reaping the rewards of having done so as Alcantara is once again leading the team in innings pitched, fWAR, and walk percentage. The Marlins rotation also features promising youngsters like Max Meyer and Eury Pérez but it’s depth has been significantly weakened by their many trades. Alcantara has been the reliable backbone that has allowed the Marlins to remain in the playoff picture so far this season.
Alcantara and the Marlins are a cautionary tale of how quickly competitive outlooks for once-hopeless clubs can turn around. If the Rockies do end up trading Hunter Goodman, it’s possible they will be looking around come 2028 and wondering whether a 30-homer bat behind the plate would have put them in the Wild Card race.
Conclusions
The Marlins problems that led to their most recent 100-loss season were very different from those facing the Rockies. For Miami the problem was an almost complete lack of premium young hitting talent (outside of Jazz Chisholm) whereas for the Rockies, the problem is on the mound.
Both clubs having their overall talent being lackluster and unbalanced, however, means that the methods employed should be applicable by just swapping out the particulars.
A plausible path the Rockies could take would be to keep taking shots at cast offs from other teams, trading aggressively for pitching talent from their outfield surplus, and holding onto their most accomplished player despite trade offers rolling in.
There’s no guarantees that this would result in the same sort of frisky contending team in two years that the Marlins have now, but there is precedent that it could.
The Isotopes pitching staff passed the baton effectively in this bullpen game. Five pitchers combined to fill the full nine innings and managed to strand eight runners en route to only two runs. The collective gave out six free passes and allowed eight hits but limited the damage with two doubles being the only extra base hits allowed.
The offense was led by Zac Veen (No. 9 PuRP) who collected three hits including his sixth triple of the season. The supporting cast around Veen of Nic Kent, Vimael Machín, and Charlie Condon (No. 1 PuRP) each reached base twice. In the end, this was enough to score five runs and earn the Isotopes their 49th win and bring them back up to a .500 record.
Connor Staine started the first game of the doubleheader and earned his sixth win of the year with five solid innings. Until the fifth inning Staine had only allowed one run, the result of a solo home run from Jean Carlos Sio. The wheels came off a bit in the bottom of the fifth and he allowed three more runs on four hits including a double but by that point Hartford had already scored six runs of their own.
Center Fielder Mike Antico drove in five of the Yard Goats six runs with his second inning double and fourth inning home run. Beyond Antico, both Braylen Wimmer (a double and a stolen base) and Aidan Longwell (two hits) were the primary contributors to Hartford’s offensive output.
Michael Prosecky (No. 25 PuRP) started his third game of the season after having worked primarily in relief. Prosecky got through two innings with 39 pitches and didn’t allow any runs before handing the ball to Griffin Herring who promptly allowed the Flying Squirrels first three runs of the game. Fisher Jameson finished the game out with three innings in which he allowed an additional two runs on three hits and four walks.
The Yard Goats were never able to catch up to the Flying Squirrels after that third inning outburst. What offense the did muster came from a combination of Roc Riggio (No. 14 PuRP), who reached base twice and stole a base, and Andy Perez who had two hits including a home run.
Spokane took the lead early with a four run third inning but it was not enough to hold off the Dust Devils. The Indians offense was speed oriented as they only had a one extra base hit, a double by Alan Espinal, but made up for it with six stolen bases. Leadoff hitter Tommy Hopfe stole one of those bases to go along with four hits as their offensive standout for Spokane.
Jordy Vargas (No. 21 PuRP) got the start for Spokane and struck out eight over five innings. Over the course of those five innings Vargas allowed three runs on ten hits and two walks which kept the Indians in the game. Poor bullpen performances from Austin Emener and Nathan Blasick allowed the final three runs that the Dust Devils needed to take the victory.
For the first seven innings of this game the Quakes looked like they were in line for a victory.
The Grizzlies pitching staff, too their credit, kept the game close through the early innings even when the lineup was struggling to score. Ethan Cole started the game for Fresno and went five innings while only allowing two runs. Grif Hughes followed Cole and allowed another run on a solo home run by Victor Rodriguez but otherwise was great in his three innings of work.
At the plate, the Grizzlies were largely stifled until the eighth inning in which they scored their first two runs thanks to a home run by Wilder Dalis (No. 24 PuRP). Then came the bottom of the ninth which Fresno entered trailing four to two. Landyn Vidourek, in his first game since being traded from the Dodgers, led the inning off with a walk before a pair of singles by Luis Mendez and Jeremy Ciriaco loaded the bases. Another pair of singles from Clayton Gray and Carlos Renzullo drove in the tying and winning runs.
The ACL Rockies dominated this one from the start. They divided the game amongst five pitchers, none of whom went longer than two innings. The only shaky performance for ACL Rockies pitchers was for the starter Kevin Concepcion who allowed three hits and two walks in only two innings.
At the plate the ACL Rockies combined for an incredible 17 hits, only three of which were for extra bases. This onslaught of pressure baserunners was headlined by center fielder Cristian Arguelles’s and third baseman Eriel Dihigo who had three hits apiece.
The bats were out for DSL Colorado in this seven inning match. A combination of plate discipline (they earned eight walks) and timely slugging led to runs in four separate innings. Centerfielder Larry Suero was the obvious standout in the lineup as he led off and collected four RBI’s by hitting both a double and a home run.
Yeremi Mendez and Eric Veras combined to hold the DSL Angels to four runs (three earned). They each only allowed a single walk, rare for this level of the minors, and the only extra base hit they allowed was a fourth inning double by David Manzueta.
Overshadowed by his slugging exploits has been Goodman’s ability to use the ABS challenge system to the Rockies advantage. Drew Creasman sits down with Goodman and how he’s gone about approaching the new system.
Speaking of Goodman, Sam Blum of the Athletic provides a primer for folks around the league as to why teams are interested in trading for him. This is aimed at folks outside the Rockies orbit that aren’t already familiar with Goodman’s game but it is just nice to see national media speaking so glowingly about a Rockie.
Another example of the national baseball media taking notice of Rockies performing well, Maddie Landis digs into TJ Rumfield’s rookie campaign. Landis lends credence to the idea that’s been floated on Purple Row that Rumfield has a legitimate case for National League Rookie of the Year.
SAN FRANCISCO, CA - MAY 23: A general view of the Giants equipment rack before the start of the game between the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants on May 23, 2026 at Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA. (Photo by Larry Placido/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Good morning, baseball fans!
Today is an off-day for the San Francisco Giants, and there hasn’t been a lot of fun to be had lately with the way the games have been going.
So instead of focusing on non-fun stuff, I thought we’d visit a video that the Giants’ social media team put out a little while ago. If you are a fan of Wordle, and the various other versions that have popped up over the years, and you’re also a baseball fan (which I assume you are, because otherwise you are very lost) then you’ve probably at least heard of the Immaculate Grid.
Players are given a set of parameters to guess baseball players that fit those parameters. And the more obscure your picks are, the higher score you receive. I’m pretty sure that’s how it works anyway, I haven’t played in a while.
So the Giants social media team asked Giants players to give it a go. The video is a little under twenty minutes, so grab your coffee, settle in, and enjoy!
PHILADELPHIA, PA - JULY 12: Ike Irish #18 of the Baltimore Orioles bats in the fifth inning during the 2026 All-Star Futures Game Presented by Nike at Citizens Bank Park on Sunday, July 12, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Brian Garfinkel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Triple-A: Charlotte Knights (White Sox) 8, Norfolk Tides 4
A pair of two-run home runs was all the offense that the Tides could muster. Heston Kjerstad hit his sixth long ball of the season in the sixth inning, and Bryan Ramos went deep for the third time in the ninth inning to make the scoreline a bit more respectable. Jud Fabian and Ryan Noda were the two that scored on those homers. Enrique Bradfield Jr. went 1-for-3 with a walk and a strikeout. Creed Willems took an 0-for-3.
Chris Kachmar started on the mound, allowing four runs on seven hits, two walks, and four strikeouts. Dietrich Enns followed and had another tough outing. Across his 1.1 innings the lefty gave up a pair of runs on three hits (two homers), three walks, and two strikeouts. Hans Crouse and José Espada combined for 2.2 scoreless innings in the middle of the game before Cam Sanders allowed two runs on one hit (a homer), a walk, and a strikeout.
Tavian Josenberger had a big game, hitting two home runs as part of his three-hit, three-RBI night at Prince George’s Stadium. Douglas Hodo added a pair of hits, including a double, two RBI, and a run scored. Frederick Bencosme had two hits out of the leadoff spot, and Brandon Butterworth went 1-for-5 with an RBI hitting right after him. Griff O’Ferrall had one hit, one run, and one stolen base. Fernando Peguero collected a hit and two stolen bases.
Juaron Watts-Brown’s turnaround continues. For the sixth consecutive start he lowered his season ERA. The box score doesn’t look amazing (5.1 innings, three runs), but he did it while striking out six and not allowing a single walk. The bullpen was money behind him. Zane Barnhart, Keagan Gillies, and Richard Guasch combined for 3.2 scoreless innings of relief to close out the win.
High-A: Frederick Keys 13, Rome Emperors (Braves) 8
All this Frederick offense does is put up big numbers. It happened again in this win. They collected 13 hits and six walks while going 4-for-17 with runners in scoring position. Wehiwa Aloy led the way with three hits, two runs scored, and five RBI. Ike Irish also had three hits, including a double, a walk, and a run scored. Aloy and Irish had one stolen bag each as well. Reed Trimble, Edwin Amparo, and Braylin Tavera hit one home run each. Tavera had three RBI for the game. Trimble also walked three times and scored four runs.
The pitching was not as universally successful. Yeiber Cartaya gave up three runs, four walks, and struck out five in his three innings. Ben Vespi coughed up three runs (two earned) in his two frames, and a rehabbing Cameron Foster allowed two solo homers in 1.1 innings. However, he late innings saw the relief corps lock things down. Chandler Marsh and Braeden Sloan combined for 2.2 scoreless innings to end the game.
Low-A: Hill City Howlers (Guardians) 6, Delmarva Shorebirds 4
Braylon Whitaker gave the Shorebirds a great effort at the top of the lineup. He singled three times, stole a base, and scored a run. Jaiden Lo Re added a single and a run scored. Junior Aybar doubled for the team’s only extra-base hit of the night and his 10th two-bagger on the season. Stiven Martinez had two of the team’s RBI and a walk. Miguel Rodríguez and Félix Amparao had one RBI each. Jordan Sanchez singled, walked, stole a base, and scored twice.
It was a mixed bad on the mound. Stephen Still lasted just four innings, but allowed only two runs on three hits, three walks, and three strikeouts. Teddy Sharkey followed with a shutout inning, and then Eccel Correa provided two scoreless innings after that. The Shorebirds lost the game in the eighth inning, when Zac Lampton was charged with allowing four runs on two hits, three walks, and a strikeout. Jack Crowder came on for the final out and allowed one of his inherited runners to score.
JUPITER, FLORIDA - MARCH 19, 2026: Tanner Franklin #43 of the St. Louis Cardinals throws a pitch during the fourth inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the Washington Nationals at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on March 19, 2026 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
On Monday, I covered the Memphis pitchers and the Springfield starting pitchers. Which is why this article begins with the Springfield relievers.
I think it is fair to say that Watson’s performance this year is a massive disappointment considering how well he finished last year at Springfield. You do have to be pretty neck deep in the woods to be invested in Watson in the first place, so I’m overstating the level of feeling most of you have towards him. But he had a 30.5 K% and 10.5 BB% with a 1.11 ERA in 24.1 IP last year in Springfield. The ERA was pretty lucky, but still. He has worse stats than last year pretty clearly.
Randal Clemente, RHP – 24
Acquired: International free agent signing out of Dominican Republic in 2020
Although the ERA isn’t better, Clemente seems to be improving as a pitcher from last season. He walked 26.1% of batters last year and struck out 27.5%. He clearly has swing-and-miss stuff… and also has no idea where the ball is going. You don’t usually see a pitcher where knocking off one percentage point off the K% for one percentage point of a BB% would totally be worth the tradeoff.
The last time I did an update, I am pretty sure Findlay had just got called up to Springfield. He struck out 30% of batters while walking 6.7%, so it was a well-deserved promotion. He’s doing alright, but considering he spent the vast majority of last year pitching poorly in Low A, him holding his own at AA less than a year later is a huge positive.
Darlin Saladin, RHP – 23 (VEB’s #16 prospect in 2025)
Acquired: International amateur free agent out of Dominican Republic in 2019
Most of these pitching lines are not as bad as they seem, for some reason they all have super high BABIPs. I don’t know if it’s because of poor defense or if it’s like playing at Coors Field or some combo of the two. I will say entering the 2025 season, Saladin did look like a legit prospect, so it has been disappointing that one and a half seasons later, he’s not great in AA as a reliever.
Hey we have something here…. and he’s hurt. Of course. He hasn’t pitched since May 24th. I actually think he may be in Memphis right now if he didn’t get hurt. Good strikeout rate, lots and lots of groundballs, and… well too many walks but it’s better than a lot of guys are managing.
I’m not going to share the stats, but there are a good four or five relievers in Springfield who have HORRENDOUS stats that make some of these lines look considerably more impressive. I’m talking like 9.00+ ERA and FIP. I’m not kidding. The ones I shared are the best relievers on the team.
With some of these pitchers, and I don’t know if you’re like me, you’ll notice a disparity between what you think the K/BB numbers should produce for FIP and what the FIP actually is. And in most cases, it’s hit by pitches. They are factored into the FIP formula. Franklin has 6 HBPs, so just mentally add that to his BB% and his FIP numbers make a lot more sense. Anyway, me personally, the numbers that matter are a strong K%, a slightly too high BB%, and a normal GB%. Things are on track despite the slash line being less than ideal.
Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19 (VEB’s #19 prospect)
Acquired: Traded with Hunter Dobbins and Blake Aita for Willson Contreras
In case you have any regret at trading Willson Contreras for some reason – I don’t know why you want Burly in the outfield – I have to say the returns on his trade have been very good so far. Close to best case scenario quite frankly. Fajardo has been unbelievable and if anything tells me that minor league BABIP is super weird, it’s Fajardo producing strikeouts on 32.3% of his ABs and somehow still coming away with an insanely high BABIP.
Odle spent April and May in Low A and dominated, posting a 1.91 ERA with a 36.4 K%. He’s still missing a lot of bats in High A, but he’s missing the strike zone. He pitched yesterday and I did update the stats I could, which is actually good news, because his FIP will be a lot better. He struck out 9, walked 3, and hit a batter in 4.2 IP. He didn’t allow a homer either. I think the xFIP will improve too, but it’ll be a much bigger boost to the FIP. This is a 14th rounder posting those K numbers, it’s ridiculous.
Leonel Sequera, RHP – 20
Acquired: International amateur free agent signing out of Venezuela in 2022
I will refrain from judging him, mostly because the big knock on him, as far as being a prospect went, was that he didn’t strike people out. He’s improved his K rate from 20.9% to 24.2% and his BB% isn’t that much higher either. Last year it was 8.7%. His groundballs have remained the same. Why is his slash line so bad? Over a fourth of the flyballs he allows go out of the park. That is one home run per start and 2.03 per 9 innings. He’s still just 20 and the three stats I care about (K%, BB%, GB%) are fairly strong.
Nate Dohm, RHP – 23
Acquired: Traded with Jesus Baez and Frank Ellisalt for Ryan Helsley
It is genuinely hard to judge pitchers in the minor leagues right now and I guess by association, I suppose we should distrust some of the hitting stats. If everyone is having a BABIP problem, I kind of think it’s the league. Dohm’s K% is the same as last year, his BB% is a little better, and his GB% is noticeably better… for some reason his xFIP is a full run lower. So the run environment certainly has changed.
Frank Ellisalt, also in the Helsley trade, has been injured all season.
I’m trying to save myself a little time by not sharing the stats of the lower level when a guy is promoted, especially if the guy was promoted before my previous update (Van Dyke’s last Low A start was May 13th and my pitching update was May 24th), however it does have the effect of only seeing the negative part of a guy’s season. Van Dyke was excellent in Low A, with a lot of Ks, not many walks, and a decent GB%. He is arguably ahead of schedule despite underwhelming stats.
When both the K% and BB% make you audibly let out an expletive, you know you have an interesting line. That is a very high strikeout percentage. That is also a very high walk percentage. If he somehow duplicated this line up the ladder, he would have the floor of a reliever at the very least. So I hope he keeps missing this many bats.
He never ended up making the top 20, but he had a decent amount of support back in March. I think that was jumping the gun a little bit. And don’t worry he’s still considered a starting pitcher – his last outing, he did not literally start the game, but he threw 5 innings. And if you were wondering, he only threw 17.2 IP all last season, so the Cardinals are managing his innings. He also began the year hurt.
Yeah tell me the pitching environment in the minors makes sense right now with this stat line. Above average K%, great BB%, good GB% – terrible numbers. Granted, it’s home runs fault. He has allowed a homer on 27.8% of flyballs, and the league average is 11%. His xERA, for whatever that’s worth, is 3.63. I’m encouraged by his start despite the homers.
Now this line being bad, I understand. Along with Dutkanyvch and Findlay, Graham was drafted with the full realization that he had recently undergone Tommy John surgery. Graham only actually started 4 total games in college. He spent his freshman and sophomore years in relief and needed TJ surgery after just one start in his junior season. So Graham does not have many innings in his past. He threw a high of 33.1 IP in his sophomore season.
Young has been injured since May 14th and is on the minor league 60-day IL. He wasn’t put on the 60-day until July 17th, which could have been a procedural move to make room for the draftees since he has been injured for 60 days already and I think it works retroactively. Or he could be done for the year. I can’t find any information on his injury.
Nelfy Ynfante, RHP – 21
Acquired: International amateur free agent out of Dominican Republic in 2022
Yes, this is an unusual stat line to give for a guy who is Low A, but Ynfante was weirdly promoted to Springfield for 7 games. I don’t know why but the Springfield bullpen is so bad, he was middle of the pack, so they could have just been desperate. Anyway, he was sent back to Low A (and not High A, curiously), where his numbers are solid.
I don’t really need a WAR figure for the minor leagues, but one helpful thing it would do, quite honestly, is share exactly the context for the numbers. If it used FIP, Shelagowski would actually have a positive WAR, I’m fairly sure. If it used xFIP, I’m not sure what it would be, but I don’t think it’d be negative. How bad does an ERA of 5.71 look? It’d just be interesting to see how it compares to a replacement player in that league.
Breckheimer is another pitcher who is on the 60-day IL right now. Not that you got all that excited about these stats, but does suck to see an injured pitcher.
Jesus Garcia, RHP – 20
Acquired: International amateur free agent signing out of Venezuela in 2024
Garcia pitched about as good as you possibly can while he was at the complex leagues, so the Cardinals promoted him pretty quickly. He’s found more of a challenge at Low A and I wish for more missed bats, but it’s not that bad.
Standout Performances
Yairo Padilla came back from the injured listi and homered in his first game. He went 3-4 with a double in his next game and yesterday he went 1-3 with a single. He’s looking good when he’s healthy.
Sebastian Dos Santos had a 89 wRC+ before he went 2-4 with two doubles in yesterday’s game. So the 18-year-old has had a decent start, mostly thanks to a 15.3 BB%.
Jack Gurevitch sure is on a roll. On Tuesday, he came to the plate five times, he homered three times, doubled once and walked. Yesterday, he homered again, but the bum was out his other three times to the plate. He’s an extra base hit machine.
Tai Peete had a very Tai Peete game on Tuesday, going 3-5 with a triple and two homers, with the two outs being strikeouts of course. Yesterday, he came to the plate five times and didn’t strike out once, going 2-5 with a double.
In his most recent start, Fajardo threw 5 innings, struck out 10, walked one and allowed 3 runs.
Won-Bin Cho hit his 10th homer in 20 games while at Springfield, and his 18th of the season. He also singled, walked, and stole a base. It’s pretty fun he’s a prospect again!
Rainiel Rodriguez has a 112 wRC+ (before he went 0-4 with a BB yesterday) in a relatively unexciting way, except for the fact that he is 19-years-old having an above average line at AA.
If you think the Cardinals bullpen is bad, check out the Springfield bullpen. Three relievers pitched in yesterday’s game. The ERAs of those pitchers were 14.85, 7.96, and 14.04. One of those lines has thrown over 30 innings, one over 15, and one has 7.2 innings.
Brycen Mautz appears to be in the bullpen now. He threw 2 scoreless innings with 4 Ks yesterday. There is a good chance he’s being primed to replace Romero as the lefty reliever role when the Cardinals deem Mautz ready.
Early on, Chase Davis has a .200/.429/.500 line and already hit a homer. As you might expect, he’s walked a lot and he’s also struck out a decent amount.
“I’m super excited to have [Achiuwa] back,” Cardwell told NBC Sports California’s Tristi Rodriguez in an exclusive interview.
“I don’t know how he came along with the ‘Beam Boys,’ but he added the glasses, and I feel like the glasses are the most important part, and the ‘Beam Boys’ are about the glasses. There was this one random game, he had glasses going on and I was like, ‘Wow, this is actually really cool.’
“So, I’m super excited to have him back. He’s a great teammate, just a good guy to be around, and obviously a great ‘Beam Boy.’ We just like guys who are buying into the culture that Max, Nique and I are trying to set up, and like I said, he’s just a fun guy to be around.”
Despite a disappointing 2025-26 season, the “Beam Boys” were some of the biggest standouts throughout the year, especially for stepping up after the Kings suffered major injuries to their stars, from Domantas Sabonis to Zach LaVine.
Achiuwa was one of the biggest surprises from the Kings’ 22-60 season, averaging 10.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game in 73 games and 57 starts.
“He said it all, I agree,” Raynaud followed up on Cardwell’s thoughts on Achiuwa’s return to the team.
With one full NBA season under their belt, Cardwell, Raynaud and Clifford should only develop and improve as the 2026-27 season approaches.
Last season, Cardwell averaged 5.4 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.5 blocks per game in 44 appearances, while Raynaud recorded 12.5 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in 74 contests, earning the France native NBA All-Rookie Second-Team honors.
Now with the addition of rookie guard Darius Acuff Jr. to the team’s young core, who the Kings selected with the No. 7 overall pick of the 2026 NBA Draft, the future only is looking bright in Sacramento.
Well, people use numbers to lie. Guns don’t kill people. People kill people with guns, and it’s harder to kill people without guns, so guns are still part of the problem.
Some NBA fans have an almost instinctively negative reaction to numbers. They’re quite sure that statistics are a pox upon basketball analysis. “Watch the games”, goes the refrain.
As if we’ll reach the same conclusions.
There’s been a statistical analysis making the rounds on X lately that does not look kindly upon the Udoka-era Houston Rockets. Analyst David Lee has compiled a study suggesting the Rockets have the worst offensive environment for player development in the NBA over the last two seasons.
Got some questions about where different teams ranked, so here's the entire league ranked (in reverse order) by Dev Environment Score*
Firstly, a caveat: I have some issues with Lee’s framing. It’s not a methodological complaint (although I’d be lying if I said I knew what Moreyball % was, but Lee is generally smart and I’m sure it means something)*. It’s not about the findings.
*Probably it’s threes and layup volume?
I just don’t understand how this isn’t a broader analysis of each team’s offensive environment. It seems to me that Lee is extrapolating under the assumption that a better offensive environment is a better developmental environment. To that end, there are relevant measurable variables – available on-ball reps, average age of roster, probably more – that I’d like to see factored into the study.
Nonetheless, I won’t throw the baby out with the bathwater (which is one of my favorite expressions, because what an egregious mistake it would be to discard a human baby in the process of throwing out bathwater). Any Rockets fan with working eyes knows that there’s something here. If we take Lee’s study to broadly analyze offensive environment, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Rockets are at the bottom.
What’s to be done?
Rockets must improve offense
Here’s where it gets tricky: By the numbers, the Rockets’ offense under Ime Udoka has been good.
Last year, their 117.5 Offensive Rating was 8th in the NBA. Their 2024-25 114.9 rating was 12th. It turns out that replacing Dillon Brooks and Jalen Green with Kevin Durant will bolster your offense even in the absence of your starting point guard.
A system’s complexity shouldn’t be mistaken for its effectiveness. The Rockets’ playbook is bare-bones. We all know that offensive rebounding buoyed the team’s rating. Their 52.3% Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) ranked 23rd.
Does it matter how the sausage is made? Well, it depends on what’s in the sausage. Put differently, it depends on whether we think an NBA offense can be largely carried by isolation reps and offensive rebounding.
Frankly, it probably can – with the right roster. Therein lies the issue. On a points per possession (PPP) basis, the Rockets’ best isolation player last year was 37. Durant’s 1.02 PPP landed in the 78.8th percentile. Alperen Sengun was in the 50.5th, and Amen Thompson in the 68.7th on lower volume.
Out of all Lee’s stats, Assist Percentage feels like the most significant. The Rockets don’t care much for moving the ball. A more sophisticated system would leverage Sengun’s surplus positional playmaking to use motion to create open shots.
So, we arrive at a crossroads. The Rockets can reshape their roster in Udoka’s image, find a coach who’s going to build a system around Sengun and Thompson, or at least impose on Udoka (and/or his staff) to throw some wrinkles into the game plan).
This piece isn’t designed to advocate for either direction. It’s simply saying that building an offense around isolation and offensive rebounding isn’t going to work if you don’t have elite isolation players.
There’s no sense in crunching many numbers to come to that conclusion.
Apr 18, 2026; New York, New York, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher (10) warms up before the 2026 NBA Playoffs game against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
There’s a reason those videos hold us. Restoration is patient work. It rewards the eye that sees what a thing could be instead of what it has become. Anyone can buy new. It takes a craftsman to look at distressed wood and know the distress is a surface problem.
On Sunday, the Mavericks pulled Zaccharie Risacher off the curb.
The find
The deal itself is simple from the Dallas side. Oklahoma City needed off Lu Dort’s money, because that’s what happens when a champion tries to stay together under the second apron. The hard choices come for everyone eventually, even the model franchise. Atlanta wanted Dort. And the Mavericks, seeing two teams that needed each other, inserted themselves as the facilitator and walked out with a 21-year-old former No. 1 overall pick.
The outgoing price: Ryan Nembhard to Atlanta and Chicago’s 2027 second-round pick to Oklahoma City. Dallas even got a deeply protected 2027 second back from Atlanta in the deal, while Risacher’s $13.8 million salary slid into the traded player exception created in the Anthony Davis trade.
Nembhard had real moments as a rookie and a rough Summer League, and trading him from the thinnest position on the roster tells you Dallas valued this upside swing more than its current point guard depth. That exchange amounted to a guard the front office was willing to move and a reshuffling of second-round equity for a player who went first overall two years ago.
What’s under the finish
Here is what the league sees when it looks at Zaccharie Risacher: a No. 1 pick from a weak draft who went backwards in year two. Points down. Minutes down. Phased out of the rotation by spring. In a redraft, he doesn’t go first. Maybe he doesn’t go in the lottery.
Here is what else is true.
Risacher came over from France at 19 and put together a genuinely decent rookie season: 12.6 points a game, four 30-point nights, more than any rookie in the league that year, and a runner-up finish to Stephon Castle for Rookie of the Year. Then came the sophomore campaign, and it was a disaster. The organization lost confidence in him, and somewhere in there, you have to wonder if he lost confidence in himself.
We look at a draft slot and a stat line and we expect the graph to ascend, year one to year two, like the player is a software update. These guys aren’t robots. Imagine being 19, in a foreign country, trying your best, doing pretty well, and then having the floor drop out in year two while most of the league writes your basketball obituary at 21.
It is worth noting that the executive who led the decision to draft him first overall was gone. Atlanta fired Landry Fields after Risacher’s rookie year, leaving the people who moved him on Sunday without the same reputational stake in defending the pick. That’s how a former No. 1 selection ends up priced like distressed wood. The people selling it weren’t the ones who paid the original price.
The acquisition price is distressed. The contract decision is not entirely. Dallas must decide by October 31 whether to exercise a $17.4 million option for 2027-28, before the restoration has had much regular-season time to reveal itself. The bet is still favorable. It simply isn’t costless.
There’s one more layer of irony worth savoring. Last winter, when the Mavericks were shopping Anthony Davis, Risacher’s name surfaced in trade rumors with Atlanta. Those talks fizzled. Davis went to Washington instead, and that trade created the very exception Dallas just used to bring Risacher in anyway. The wood found its way to the shop after all. It just took the scenic route.
Earlier this month in this space, the argument was that the real brilliance of the six-team Aldama trade was what Dallas didn’t spend. By routing Khris Middleton back to Washington in a sign-and-trade, like a boomerang returning to the hand that threw it, the front office preserved the full Davis exception and kept most of its mid-level spending power intact. The biggest tool stayed on the shelf.
On Sunday, they took it down and used it.
This is what preservation is for. You don’t protect an exception to admire it. You protect it so that when a former No. 1 pick shakes loose from a franchise that stopped believing in him, you can absorb his salary without sending out anyone the new front office considered part of its core rotation. The patience in early July paid for the opportunism in late July. That’s craftsmanship. That’s a shop where the tools are kept sharp and hung where the workers can reach them.
Restoring on a staggered start
Now for the part of this that requires honesty about where the Mavericks actually are.
The draft cupboard isn’t barren, but it’s not what any new regime would want. Dallas’s 2027 first goes to Charlotte unless it lands in the top two. Oklahoma City holds swap rights in 2028. The Mavericks’ own 2029 pick is tied up in the Houston-Brooklyn machinery, leaving Dallas with the Lakers’ first instead, from the trade this fanbase will spend a generation processing. San Antonio holds swap rights in 2030. The first draft in which Dallas fully controls its own first-round destiny is 2031.
In the likeliest scenario, Dallas makes three first-round selections between now and then, and none of them come in the lottery. That’s my forecast, and I’ll own it: unless something unforeseen happens to the teams on the other side of those swaps, or the Lakers crater with the cornerstone Dallas handed them, those picks land closer to the end of the round than the top of it.
That’s not a standing start—that’s a staggered one…well behind a fair starting point to judge a set of decision-makers, but it is also life in the NBA. New front offices don’t inherit blank canvases in this league; they inherit the previous regime’s mistakes and get judged on the cleanup. Masai Ujiri and Mike Schmitz took this job knowing the assets that should have been in the drawer were spent by the people who came before them, spent chasing a window that the same regime then threw the franchise’s cornerstone out of.
So what do you do when you can’t draft your way back and you can’t trade your way to a second star, because the ammunition for that kind of deal simply doesn’t exist? You work the margins. You take on distressed assets, opportunistically, and you bet on your own eye for grain.
Look at what this offseason has actually cost. The No. 9 pick, which they used. A move from 30 to 25 for Sergio De Larrea that cost two future seconds. Their own second-rounders, which they used. And in the six-team deal: Middleton, AJ Johnson, a couple of seconds, and a Golden State first-rounder so heavily protected it was probably never going to be a first at all.
For that, they’ve added eight players to the organization’s young talent pool: Morez Johnson Jr., De Larrea, Tobi Lawal, Vsevolod Ishchenko, Santi Aldama, Marcus Sasser, Tarik Biberovic, and now Risacher. This is a molting, and we’re watching it mid-molt. Judge it at training camp, or at the deadline, or next summer, when the feathers have finished coming in.
But here’s the bet that makes the Risacher trade the signature move of the whole project. Barring another major move, Dallas has no realistic path to having a first-round pick next June. If Risacher spends this season being coached back into the player who finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, if he matures into someone you’d take over most of the bottom half of next year’s first round, then Dallas has effectively manufactured the pick it doesn’t own.
It is not the 2019 blockbuster that shipped out a large piece of the future to pair two young stars and accelerate a timeline. It isn’t the deadline deals that spent first-round picks on the pieces of a Finals run. Those were different tools for a different era, and whether this front office would make those kinds of moves is unknowable, because they haven’t been given the chance. They’re maneuvering on the margins by necessity.
So far, they’re doing it beautifully.
What gets restored first
There’s another video genre I can’t stop watching lately. A crew knocks on the door of a stranger’s house, usually someone older, sometimes someone who just can’t keep up anymore, and offers a deal: let us film it, and we’ll restore your yard for free. Half a day later a home that had become a source of quiet embarrassment is quaint again. Cared for again.
Millions of people watch those videos, and I think it’s the same instinct that keeps me transfixed by the woodworking channels. We love watching hidden potential get realized. We love watching someone kneel next to a thing the world gave up on and put in the elbow grease to find out what’s underneath.
That’s what this offseason has been. No big-names to finish off a nearly perfect roster. A restoration, conducted from well behind the starting line, by craftsmen who understood that the Cooper Flagg lottery night was only ever going to matter if the decisions that followed it were shrewd. Under the people who ran this team before, they weren’t going to be. Under these people, so far, they are.
Whether it ends in a title or just a couple of playoff runs that make this city feel like itself again, nobody can promise. But something is being restored in Dallas right now, and it comes before wins, before relevance, before any of it.
SAN ANTONIO - JUNE 5: (L-R) David Robinson #50 and Tim Duncan #21 of the San Antonio Spurs rest on the scorer's table in practice during media day availability for the 2003 NBA Finals at the SBC Center on June 5, 2003 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2003 NBAE. (Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
Bleacher Report released their “Top 99 NBA Defenders Ever” and 13 of those 99, at some point in their careers, played for the San Antonio Spurs. The #1 overall greatest defender in NBA history (according to their list) is Bill Russell. Even though he played before many of the metrics were recorded and awards were given, he is a top choice. Here’s how the Bleacher Report staff ranked players:
“To determine the best to ever do it, Bleacher Report’s NBA writers and editors convened for a staff vote. Voters were instructed to consider advanced metrics, traditional production, All-Defensive and Defensive Player of the Year accolades, peak dominance, longevity and the good, old-fashioned eye test.”
The Spurs have some great players on this list.
13 current/former Spurs players made Bleacher Report's list of greatest defenders in NBA history:
#2 — Tim Duncan #7 — Dennis Rodman #11 — David Robinson #12 — Kawhi Leonard #24 — Bruce Bowen #29 — Chris Paul #36 — Victor Wembanyama #37 — Alvin Robertson #51 — Maurice Cheeks #77… pic.twitter.com/gNy7HRm9c6
Let’s start with Tim Duncan listed at #2 despite never winning a Defensive Player of the Year title. He did, however, garner 15 All-Defense selections — eight NBA All-Defensive First Team and seven NBA All-Defensive Second Team — the most for any player in NBA history. Man, could a player be more robbed than Duncan? No DPOY and honestly, I’m still salty that he only got credit for eight of his ten blocks in the 2003 NBA Finals, robbing him of a quadruple-double. The fact that fans and pundits care more than Big Fun alludes to the temperament that led him to greatness in the first place.
While Dennis Rodman (#7) may have been an awful fit in San Antonio from a personality standpoint, there is no denying his amazing defensive talents. Rodman, a two-time DPOY, made seven All-Defensive First Teams. The Worm was the rebounding champion for seven straight years. From 1992-1998, no one was more aggressive on the boards that Rodman. He was so adept defensively that teams didn’t even need him to score.
Dennis Rodman made history without needing to score.
He had seven career games with 20+ rebounds and zero points.
David Robinson (#11) is the second Spurs player on the list to have spent his entire career in San Antonio. Together with Tim Duncan, the Spurs won their first two NBA titles. In 1992, The Admiral claimed his DPOY award after being the league’s rebounding leader (1991) and blocks leader (1992). He added a scoring championship (1994) and MVP (1995) to his accolades showing he was one of the most athletic and well-rounded players of his time.
Following directly behind Robinson in the #12 spot is Kawhi Leonard. While Leonard’s time with San Antonio ended on strained terms and much of his post-Spurs career has been riddled with injuries, The Klaw landed back-to-back DPOY honors in 2015 and 2016 while leading the NBA in steals in 2015. His current playing status is uncertain as an investigation of a “no-show” endorsement deal is holding up the trade that would send him back to Toronto.
Bruce Bowen (#24) was known for his defensive acumen during his time with the Spurs. After receiving his first NBA All-Defensive Second Team in 2001 with the Miami Heat, he signed with the Spurs picking up two more Second Team honors before grabbing five consecutive NBA All-Defensive First honors and three championship rings.
Victor Wembanyama, who just nabbed the first ever unanimous DPOY award this past season, is #36 on the list, and sure to move up as the years go by. He has been the blocks leader every year since he was drafted and currently sits 223rd in NBA blocks. That’s all-time. He’s accumulated more career blocks than guys who played more than a decade. Names like Nikola Jokic, Ivica Zubac, and James Worthy have been passed as he continues to dominate the paint and reshape the game.
Alvin Robertson (#37) won DPOY in 1986 and was the NBA steals leader three times during his career. He’s the only player in NBA history to record a quadruple-double with steals as one of the categories.
Artis Gilmore (#77) has a magnificent set of stats that he racked up in the 70s. Unfortunately for the Spurs, he played in San Antonio in the mid-80s. Same goes for Paul Pressey (#85) who shined in the mid-80s and spent two post prime seasons with the Spurs at the top of the 90s with limited play.
Chris Paul (#29), Maurice Cheeks (#51), and Theo Ratliff (#87) each played one season with the Spurs and while their defensive resumes are impressive, most of their accolades were accumulated before their time with the Silver & Black.
Derrick White (#89) has the opposite issue. While he was a great player for the Spurs, he’s shined while in Boston picking up his defensive honors while playing with the Celtics.
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COVERS INTEL: Taj Bradley has given up a lot of quality contact, ranking in the ninth percentile in hard hit rate.
