
Of the 15 games left on the Orioles 2026 schedule, six of them are against these Blue Jays. That’s helpful because if the O’s are going to beat the odds and make a last-ditch run for the playoffs, they need to leap-frog the Jays in the standings before chasing down the Guardians team that they just took two out of three games from.
These two teams have not faced off since early June, when they finished playing one another seven times in a 10-game span. They split the series in Baltimore, and then the Jays took two of three in Toronto. Since then, both teams have had their ups and downs.
Toronto enters the series in the midst of a sudden cold patch. They’ve lost three of their last four against the Royals and Athletics. But that comes right after an impressive 23-12 stretch that lasted from late July through last weekend. So either this past week was a blip amidst a torrid run into the postseason, or it was a sudden downturn that will dash the hopes of the defending AL champs.
The Blue Jays have been one of the league’s best pitching staffs in the second half of the season. They have a 3.51 collective ERA, which ranks fifth in MLB. Both the rotation and the bullpen have been Top 10 units since the all-star break. Louis Varland has continued with his standout season at the back of the bullpen, compiling a 1.54 ERA in that stretch. Tyler Rogers, Spencer Miles, Mason Fluharty, and Paul Sewald all have ERAs of 2.05 or better in the second half as well.
The offense, on the other hand, has struggled. Toronto has averaged 3.86 runs per game in the second half. For comparison, the Orioles, who frustrate us all to no end, have averaged 4.28 in that same time.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (78 wRC+ in second half) has hit just two home runs since the break and has only eight on the year. Andrés Giménez (89 wRC+) and Ernie Clement (54 wRC+) have also struggled. George Springer (129 wRC+), however, has been as reliable as ever. Josh Smith (173 wRC+) has shown to be a great deadline addition, Alejandro Kirk (141 wRC+) has stepped up, and Kazuma Okamoto leads the team with eight second-half homers.
We won’t see several familiar names in this series due to injury. Trey Yesavage had meniscus surgery in August and is still building back up. Shane Bieber is dealing with teres major inflammation. Old friend Anthony Santander is yet to play this year due to labral surgery, but is currently on a rehab assignment. And Luis Urías, younger brother of old friend Ramón, is dealing with a quad strain that may keep him out for the rest of the year.
Game 1: Friday, September 11th, 7:07 p.m., MASN
RHP Chris Bassitt (6-5, 4.96 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (2-7, 6.03 ERA)
Bassitt has given the Orioles exactly what they hoped to get out of him ever since being activated off the IL a few weeks ago. In that time he has made five starts and has a 4.34 ERA while averaging nearly six innings per start. It’s steady and dependable stuff from the veteran. His last time to the mound against the Red Sox saw hime with his best velocity of the season and a whiff rate to match. You would imagine he wants to keep that trend going here against his former club.
The 42-year-old Scherzer has been limited to 62.2 innings this season due to ankle inflammation in late April and then back spasms suffered in mid June. Since being re-activated at the end of July, the future Hall of Famer has been quite good. Over eight starts he has a 3.76 ERA/3.96 across 40.2 innings in which he has struck out 34 and walked 16. His season ERA has dropped from 10.23 to 6.03 now.
Game 2: Saturday, September 12th, 6:10 p.m., MASN
Kyle Bradish (7-13, 3.91 ERA) vs. TBD
August (.510 SLG) and September (.528) have seen Bradish post the worst slugging numbers against of his season. He has allowed six home runs across 34 home runs. And has been noted many times, his strikeout rates are coming down. The righty was striking out 10.1 per nine innings back in June. In the three months since that number has been 6.5, 6.8, and 7.0. Maybe he will get a little extra juice on what will be his 30th birthday.
This would be Spencer Arrighetti’s turn in the rotation for Toronto, but he struggle in his most recent outing (4.2 innings, six runs, six hits, three walks, three strikeouts), so they may opt for another option, or perhaps an opener.
Game 3: Sunday, September 13th, 1:37 p.m., MASN
LHP Trevor Rogers (10-9, 4.15 ERA) vs. TBD
A switch flipped for Rogers going into June. Since the start of that month he has a 2.88 ERA/2.78 FIP over 103 innings. His last start against Cleveland was his longest of the year. Over 7.1 innings he allowed on run on six hits, six strikeouts, and no walks. At this point, the southpaw would be silly to not test the open market. He may not have the longest track record, but his last two seasons here in Baltimore have been darn impressive.
Dylan Cease, who is in the mix for AL Cy Young, would be on turn to start. But it’s possible that with the off day prior to this series that Toronto could try to move him up to Saturday on normal rest to see if they can get their ace into as many games as possible down the stretch. In either case it won’t be an ideal matchup for the Orioles offense.
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments.









