Here are my favorite MLBhome run props for today's slate, headlined by St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson and Cleveland Guardians Jo Adell.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Jo Adell
+325
Alec Burleson
+365
Rafael Devers
+388
💲Today's HR parlay
+9744
Home run pick: Jo Adell (+325)
Chicago White Sox left-hander Noah Schultz has struggled since being brought up, with right-handed hitters giving him the most trouble. The last 60 he has faced own a .339 xBA, .573 xSLG, and .374 xwOBA, while Schultz is allowing a 75% elevation rate to those right-handed hitters.
I like newly acquired Cleveland Guardian Jo Adell in this spot tonight to hit his first home run in a Guardians uniform. He draws the third-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box today, and in 35 elite ratings, he has left the yard 25.7% of the time.
Over his last 30 at-bats against a left-handed pitcher, Adell owns a .893 SLG, 1.326 OPS, and .554 wOBA, while producing a 47% hard hit rate and 23.5% barrel rate.
I would take his home run prop down to +300.
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: CLEGuardians.TV, Chicago Sports Network
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+365)
Nothing like backing the burley boy on a Friday evening.
During that stretch, those lefties are producing a 13.6% barrel rate while owning a .379 xBA, .763 xSLG, and .412 xwOBA.
The Cardinals slugger has maintained a .423 BA, .731 SLG, and 1.231 OPS while producing a 60% hard hit rate and 15% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
This is a strong spot for the big fella to once again go deep this week.
Take this down to +300 at the most.
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+388)
One of the first hitters to jump out at me this morning was San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers. The big fella enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while covering over 76% of Detroit Tigers right-hander Keider Montero. The arsenal coverage should be a bit higher, but because Devers has such a small sample size against knuckle curves, that is why it sits at 76%.
Regardless, Devers has been seeing the ball extremely well, posting a .320 BA, 10% strikeout rate and .913 OPS while making 89% contact. On the other side, Montero has allowed a 64% elevation rate and 37.7% hard-hit rate to left-handed hitters on the road this season.
Devers owns the hottest bat in the Giants’ lineup right now, and I think he is worth trusting this evening at home. Take this down to +350.
Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSBA, DSN
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 90-338, +3.7 units
Today’s HR combo
Rafael Devers
Trade Now +9744
Jo Adell
Alec Burleson
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
There are very few players who become synonymous with a franchise. Fewer still who can spend two decades with the same organization and leave it difficult to imagine that organization without them.
Anze Kopitar is one of those players.
On Feb. 24, 2027, the Los Angeles Kings will retire Kopitar’s No. 11 at Crypto.com Arena and unveil a bronze statue honoring the greatest player in franchise history. The ceremony will take place before the Kings face the Montreal Canadiens, giving Los Angeles the opportunity to celebrate a career that has come to define an era of Kings hockey.
Kopitar’s number will become just the eighth retired in franchise history, joining the likes of Rogie Vachon, Marcel Dionne, Dave Taylor, Wayne Gretzky, Luc Robitaille, Rob Blake and Dustin Brown.
But the significance of Kopitar’s place among those names goes beyond the numbers hanging in the rafters.
He arrived in Los Angeles as an 18-year-old Slovenian prospect selected 11th overall in the 2005 NHL Draft. Twenty years later, he leaves the game as the Kings’ all-time leader in games played, assists and points — the captain who helped transform the organization from a franchise searching for its identity into a two-time Stanley Cup champion.
And now, his likeness will stand outside the building he spent his career calling home.
Kopitar will become the fourth Kings player to receive a statue outside Crypto.com Arena, joining Gretzky, Robitaille and Brown. Bob Miller, whose statue also stands outside the arena, will remain the only non-player honored in that fashion.
For Kopitar, however, the celebration is less about what he accomplished individually than the people who helped him get there.
“When I arrived in Los Angeles 21 years ago, I simply hoped to earn the opportunity to play in the NHL,” Kopitar said. “I never imagined something like this.”
That humility has been a defining characteristic of Kopitar throughout his career.
From Slovenian Teenager To Face Of The Franchise
Kopitar did not need long to introduce himself to Los Angeles.
In his NHL debut on Oct. 6, 2006, he scored twice against the Anaheim Ducks. Three games into his career, he had already accumulated six points, becoming only the second player in Kings history to reach that mark over his first three games.
He finished his rookie season with 20 goals and 61 points in 72 games, becoming just the fifth rookie in Kings history to reach 60 points — and the first in two decades.
He never stopped building from there.
The following season, Kopitar recorded 77 points and began a run of dominance that would eventually see him lead Los Angeles in scoring 15 times. Only Gordie Howe, with 17 seasons in Detroit, and Sidney Crosby, with 16 in Pittsburgh, have led a single franchise in scoring more often.
Wayne Gretzky led multiple franchises in scoring 19 times over his career, including nine times with Edmonton, seven times with Los Angeles and three times with the New York Rangers.
That puts Kopitar in exceptionally rare company.
It also helps explain why his retirement leaves such a massive hole in Los Angeles.
Kopitar's career was built on more than offensive production.
He became one of the NHL's premier two-way centers, a player trusted in virtually every situation and against the opposition's best players. He became a dominant faceoff specialist, a power-play contributor, a penalty-killing presence and, eventually, the player teammates looked toward when the game was at its most important.
His résumé reflects that versatility.
Kopitar won the Selke Trophy twice, recognizing him as the NHL's best defensive forward, and collected three Lady Byng Trophies. He also received the Mark Messier NHL Leadership Award.
Then there were the two Stanley Cup championships.
The first came in 2012, when the Kings finally broke through and won the first championship in franchise history. Two years later, Los Angeles did it again.
Kopitar was at the center of both runs.
He scored one of the most memorable goals of the 2012 postseason in overtime against the New Jersey Devils in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, helping set the tone for a championship run that changed the trajectory of the franchise.
By the time he became captain in 2016, there was little question about who represented the Kings.
Kopitar wasn't simply wearing the 'C.'
He was the identity of the team.
The Records Tell Only Part Of The Story
Kopitar finished his career with 1,316 points, courtesy of 452 goals and 864 assists, in 1,521 regular-season games.
Every one of those games came in a Kings uniform.
His 1,521 games are the most in franchise history, as are his 864 assists and 1,316 points. His 831 even-strength points, 79 game-winning goals, 34 overtime points and 15,237 faceoff wins also sit atop the franchise record book.
He ranks second in plus/minus at plus-127, power-play points with 457, overtime goals with nine and shots with 3,429.
His 452 goals rank third in franchise history.
And the record that perhaps best captures his longevity came late in his career.
On March 5, 2026, Kopitar became only the 25th player in NHL history to appear in 1,500 games. Nine players had previously reached that milestone with a single franchise.
Nine days later, he passed another legend.
Playing in New Jersey on March 14, Kopitar scored twice to move his career point total to 1,308, passing Marcel Dionne's 1,307 and becoming the Kings' all-time leading scorer.
Dionne had held the record for more than 45 years.
Kopitar finally took it away.
It was a fitting moment for a player whose career had always been measured in longevity as much as production.
A Captain Who Kept Showing Up
Kopitar's final years in Los Angeles may be just as important to his legacy as his prime.
After taking over as captain, he helped guide the Kings back to the postseason six times, including each of his final five seasons.
His playoff résumé is equally impressive.
Kopitar leaves Los Angeles as the franchise's all-time leader in playoff games with 107. He ranks second in postseason assists with 62 and is tied for second in playoff points with 89. His 27 postseason goals rank third, while his five game-winning goals and 30 power-play points are both near the top of the franchise record book.
He also continued to collect recognition long after the Kings' championship years.
Kopitar earned 25 different team awards during his career, including the Bill Libby Award as the Kings' Most Valuable Player nine times and the organization's Best Defensive Player award eight times.
He was also named the team's Most Inspirational Player four times and Most Popular Player three times.
Those awards tell a different story than the NHL trophies.
They reflect how the people inside the organization viewed him.
More Than A Hockey Player In Los Angeles
For all the numbers, championships and individual awards, Kopitar's legacy in Los Angeles extends well beyond the rink.
He became deeply involved in the Southern California community, supporting Children's Hospital Los Angeles and the Make-A-Wish Foundation while also playing an important role in the growth of youth hockey throughout the region.
That influence is part of why the Kings' celebration will feel bigger than a jersey retirement.
Kopitar's No. 11 will eventually hang alongside the numbers of the franchise's foundational stars. His statue will join the physical monuments to Gretzky, Robitaille and Brown.
But unlike most of those players, Kopitar spent his entire NHL career in Los Angeles.
He arrived as an unknown teenager from Jesenice, Slovenia.
He leaves as the player who played more games, recorded more assists and produced more points than anyone who ever wore a Kings jersey.
And somewhere between those two points, he became something far more difficult to quantify.
He became a King.
“His legacy extends far beyond the records, awards and championships,” Kings president Luc Robitaille said. “He has inspired generations of Kings fans and left an indelible mark on our franchise.”
That legacy will become permanent on Feb. 24, 2027.
No. 11 will go to the rafters.
Anze Kopitar will take his place among the legends.
And Los Angeles will finally get the chance to put a statue to the career it spent 20 years watching unfold.
San Diego (60-56) and Houston (59-57) prepare for a three-game weekend series that will conclude on Peacock Sunday. Both the Padres and Astros are two of the hottest teams in the second half of the season and the past two weeks.
After starting the second half of the year 0-3, Houston went on a 12-3 stretch. The Astros are hot and in the past 15 days, Houston has scored the fifth-most runs (65) and the third-best batting average (.284). To start August, the pitching staff has allowed a .186 OBA (4th) and the best WHIP (0.89). The Astros are 1.5 games up on the Rangers for the AL West lead and 3.0 ahead of the Mariners.
San Diego has now won four-straight games following a loss as the Padres continue to stay hot. The Padres are 10-3 in the past 13 games. The pitching staff has a 3.60 ERA in that 13-game span, and the 2nd-best batting average at .286 Fernando Tatis’ bat has been hot the last 6-8 weeks, while Manny Machado is coming off his best month in July with 7 home runs and 19 RBI on a .292 batting average. San Diego is 1.0 game back of the Diamondbacks for the final Wild Card spot and 2.0 of the Phillies entering this series.
Let’s dive into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Astros at Padres
Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
Time: 9:40 PM EST
Site: Petco Park
City: San Diego, CA
Network/Streaming: MLB TV
Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.
Odds for the Astros at the Padres
The latest odds as of Friday:
Moneyline: San Diego Padres (-117), Houston Astros (+109)
Spread: Astros +1.5 (-193), Padres -1.5 (+159)
Total: 8.0
Probable starting pitchers for Astros at Padres
Friday's pitching matchup (August 7): Robbie Ray vs Ronel Blanco
Fernando Tatis Jr is hitting .150 in August (3/20)
Jackson Merrill is hitting .375 in August (9/24)
Manny Machado hit .292 in July with seven home runs on 28 hits
Yordan Alvarez is hitting .421 in August (8/19)
Jose Altuve is hitting .450 in August (9/20) with zero strikeouts
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Astros at Padres
San Diego is 63-53 ATS, ranking fourth-best
Arizona is 62-54 ATS, ranking tied for eighth-best
San Diego is 62-53-1 to the Under, ranking 10th-best
Arizona is 61-49-6 to the Under, ranking fifth-best
San Diego is 30-27 ATS at home
Arizona is 31-28 ATS on the road
Expert picks & predictions for tonight’s game between the Padres and the Astros
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Friday's game between the Padres and the Astros:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Padres on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Padres at -1.5.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Under on the Game Total of 8.5
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SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 24: Manager Tony Vitello #23 of the San Francisco Giants talks to President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey before the game against the Los Angeles Angels at Oracle Park on July 24, 2026 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Nationally, during this disaster of a season, there has been some speculation that the San Francisco Giants could pull the plug on their unique gamble of hiring the green Tony Vitello as their manager after just one season.
In total, that mindset seemed shortsighted and a knee-jerk reaction. Yet, after this week’ massive roster overhaul by Giants’ president of baseball operation Buster Posey is actually a strong indication that the franchise is fully behind Vitello, who came to San Francisco this year with no professional experience.
In fact, this moves this week are actually an investment in the skills and reputation of Vitello, who left a comfortable and successful stint at the University of Tennessee to dip his toes in the Major Leagues. Sure, Vitello has shown his lack of pro experience this year and he’s had more of his share of growing pains, but the Giants are clearly putting their future in his hands.
San Francisco orchestrated five trades at the deadline and, by all accounts they did a tremendous job of adding several high-end, big-time potential prospects in the form of both pitching and everyday players. The team went into the deadline with a one of the better farm systems in the league and now it is bubbling over with serious prospects.
This team will be very young for a while and that’s where Vitello comes in. He is an expert at developing and dealing with younger players. That s his strength. So, he will be able to grow into his major league managerial approach, while working with and developing younger players. Vitello and his players will grow together. By the time these players are ready to make a serious run, Vitello should be fully comfortable in his role.
This is the type of team Vitello needed to inherit from the jump. It took a rocky fit to finally put the Vitello plan on track n San Francisco. It may take a while to payoff, but this week has shown neither he nor Posey are going anywhere anytime soon.
ATLANTA, GA - AUGUST 5: Bryce Elder #55 of the Atlanta Braves pitches in the first inning during the game against the Miami Marlins at Truist Park on August 5, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s usually a bad time for the Miami Marlins to run into the Atlanta Braves, based on how these two teams have fared against each other for nearly a decade-and-a-half now. It was an especially bad time for Miami this time around as the Braves came into this series looking hot and playing well.
As it turned out, nothing changed. The Braves were cooking against the Nationals and this week’s action saw yet another Fish Fry take place in Cobb County. Atlanta didn’t have too much trouble dealing with the Nationals and they also did so with a couple of starting pitchers who apparently had something to prove following the trade deadline. How did it all end up going? Let’s get into the recap, shall we?
Following his performance on Tuesday where he pitched six shutout innings, Grant Holmes expressed feelings of being motivated after there was such a loud and disappointed reaction to the Braves not adding a front-end starter to their rotation once the trade deadline came and went. If that’s true then hopefully we’ll continue to see him perform at or near a level like this because it was definitely impressive.
While Holmes was on the mound, he didn’t receive too much run support as the only help he had during his six innings was a dinger from Ozzie Albies in the second inning. Marlins starter did well to keep the Braves quiet and go stride-for-stride with Holmes while he was out there.
As a result, this came down to which team’s bullpen was better and which team could herd their nerve from a defensive standpoint. In both cases, the answer was “Atlanta” The seventh inning ended up being pivotal after Lane Thomas and his speed made an immediate impact by forcing a bad throw out of Otto Lopez. That brought Austin Riley to the plate, who proceeded to crush one into the seats in left-center for a two-run homer that gave the Braves some valuable breathing room at 3-0.
Atlanta actually went into the top of the ninth with a 4-0 lead but Raisel Iglesias had a wobble — one that usually comes after he has to deal with a leadoff baserunner. Iglesias conceded two runs but the Marlins needed more than that to keep the game going and so the Braves kept their winning streak going.
Apparently Bryce Elder was also motivated by his GM’s vote of confidence in him because he took the baton from Grant Holmes in the night before and absolutely ran with it. Elder has actually been pretty solid since the All-Star break (1.88 ERA and 44 ERA- over 24 innings since July 20. 5.01 FIP, though) and this was the best start of the run. Elder pitched seven innings while only giving up one hit with two walks. He struck out three batters and only gave up one run. Impressively, it wasn’t on a hanger that got hit to the moon, either. This was a truly good start from Elder.
Anyways, the Marlins never looked much like scoring on this particular night while Braves were in complete control for nearly the duration of the contest. Austin Riley continued his nice series by delivering a ground-rule RBI double that put the Braves in front and then Drake Baldwin shot one up the middle later on in the frame to plate two runners and make it 3-0 in the second. Mauricio Dubón added on an RBI single of his own to make it 4-0 and Atlanta was cruising early on.
They kept on cruising for the rest of the night. The aforementioned run that I mentioned Elder conceding came on a productive out from Joe Mack in the fifth inning and that was as good as it got for Miami in this one. The Marlins only had three hits in this one and two of them came off of Dylan Dodd. Didier Fuentes ended up pulling off a four-out save in this one as the Braves clinched just about the most comfortable three-run victory you’ll see this season.
Whether Ronald Acuña Jr. retires as a Braves player or leaves town eventually, the Marlins are likely going to throw a party and have a parade for him as he’s on his way out. Acuña has tormented the Marlins on a near-regular basis over the course of his career and Thursday night delivered one of the wildest examples. Right before the tarp came out, Acuña hit a fly ball to left-center that could’ve ended up in either Heriberto Hernandez’s glove or Esteury Ruiz’s glove. Instead, the two Marlins outfielders collided and the ball bounced off of them and over the fence for a two-run dinger. Jose Canseco would’ve been proud.
Once the game resumed play, the Braves continued to cruise along until they put the pedal to the metal starting int he sixth inning. Atlanta plated four runs in the sixth and it started with a leadoff homer from Matt Olson to get things started. Lane Thomas continued to ingratiate himself with Braves Country after he plated Michael Harris II with a double and then following an Austin Riley sacrifice fly, Xavier Edwards made a three-course meal out of a routine ground ball in order to cap off the miserable inning for Miami.
Michael Harirs II tripled home Matt Olson in the seventh inning and then Money Mike was brought home with a single from Mauricio Dubón. The Braves then added three more in the bottom of the eighth, which included Acuña capping off a wacky night by just hitting a good ol’ fashioned normal homer for his second of the night. Javier Sanoja made an error and then had to pitch to finish off the inning and that probably summed up th level of frustration that Miami was feeling as they suffered yet another rough visit to Truist Park.
The Braves never trailed at any point during this series, mind you. Before any of y’all go “Oh, it’s the Marlins,” remember that not-too-long ago the Braves were busy getting stymied by the Juan Soto-less New York Mets. This is Major League Baseball and any team can beat anybody over the course of a three-game series and outside of Thursday’s beatdown, the Marlins weren’t too far off.
With that being said, the Braves haven’t had too much trouble with the Marlins so far this season — or any recent season, really. That’s now 12 straight seasons where the Braves have won the season series over the Marlins and there’s even a Postseason series involved in that as well. It’s good to know that in this rapidly-changing world, some things remain consistent.
Atlanta now heads to the Bronx on a heater. They’ve won eight straight games and they’re 15-5 since the All-Star break. It’s exactly the type of form that you want to be on at this point in the season, as the better you play in August makes things that easier once September rolls around. The Braves are playing themselves into a comfortable spot with September on the horizon and now they’ll have a major test against one of the top squads in the American League. Time to see what happens!
The 21-year-old British boxer has the chance to become the second youngest world heavyweight champion after Mike Tyson when he fights for the IBF crown this month
Moses Itauma was initially unmoved when hearing that his bout against Filip Hrgovic in London on 29 August had been upgraded to a fight for the vacant IBF world heavyweight title.
“I didn’t really have any reaction,” Itauma said on Friday afternoon. “I was like, if I’m fighting Hrgovic and I’ve got the opportunity for it to be a world title, then yeah, chuck it on the line. I didn’t have any other feeling. I was taking Hrgovic serious – and, now the fight is for a world title, I’m still taking him serious. It’s still the same fight, innit?”
The Mariners have announced that as part of their 50 Seasons Celebration Night, when the top 50 players in team history will be welcomed at T-Mobile in a ceremony before first pitch, Alex Rodriguez will be in attendance.
It’s been 26 years since A-Rod left Seattle in free-agency and became a villain in the eyes of many Seattle sports fan, a wound that may still be left unhealed.
“I’m not sure if there will be cheers…well, I guess there will be cheers because my family will be with me,” he said in a conversation with Brock and Salk on 710ESPN with a chuckle. “They’ll have to be cheering loud to mute out the other 45,000 booing out of their mind.”
Lookout Landing staffers (and friends) met to discuss the impact of his fateful decision and the legacy that A-Rod has left in Seattle.
Evan: I’m relistening to the ARod segment and it’s so weird to hear the narrative be about him as a Seattle baseball pariah. Like dude…you are not a top 50 sports villain in this town. We don’t think about you (even if we should). In terms of Mariners specific antagonists I don’t even feel like he ranks very high.
Eric: I think about him, in regards to how fucking dumb the FO was to not make him THE guy after that 2000 season
Evan: I dont remember his parting as being all that contentious? They offered him 90 million compared to 250 million dollars.
Eric: Well the fans hated it bc uhhhh greed? Money? I dunno. But also the FO didn’t exactly make him feel like he could either a) be THE guy as Griffey was making it clear he wanted to go home and b) made a deal to keep them both somehow.
If they kept one or both of them, they win the 2001 World Series.
Evan: People boo him because he’s a cheater, not because he left the Mariners. I guess maybe what I remember as frustration with ownership and Pat Gillick for dismantling that 2001 team other people remember more as player specific animosity for leaving? IDK, my clear memory is that the ARod falling out really came after his suspension from the Yankees. That was the real watershed moment.
Zach Mason: Respectfully, you have no idea. This was extremely contentious. I’ve never heard mariners fans boo louder. People were throwing Monopoly money on the field. Now on the merits I think views about players taking the most money have changed over the past quarter century. But about what happened at the time you’re as wrong as you’ve ever been. Personally I love A-Rod and treasure my memories of him.
Evan: I remember it was contentious at the time, but it sure does feel like it’s come out in the wash given how the remainder of his career went. He’s a bigger villain in several other places, it feels small potatoes here in 2026. Baseball is a very different, distant landscape since that contract was signed.
Maybe the way to put this is he doesn’t feel, to me like OUR villian. We have Jesse Winker and Milton Bradley and Carlos Silva at home.
John: I am with ZAM on this one. He is top five still, and in terms of actual players I don’t think there are any competitors for most hated former Seattle athlete. The Monopoly money thing is one of the most iconic pieces of MLB history of the past 30 years.
I find it distasteful because my perspective has changed significantly since I was an angry six-year-old, which is not necessarily the case for many fans, but it was different than someone coming here and just sucking or disappointing. He was an all-time great and chose to leave to get more money, on the heels of Randy choosing to leave in a similarly heated, but slightly more understood, way, and Griffey doing the same where he also was subject to a lot of frustration, but was given the grace of a hero who just really wanted to go play at home. A Rod got none of that.
I think the closest comparable is Russell Wilson, but not only did he already win a title, he had declined enough to where it wasn’t quite as important that he wanted to leave, to say nothing of him getting traded to the other conference being quite different than signing with a direct divisional rival.
Evan: IDK, I feel like ARod immediately moved on from a Mariners pariah to a national entity and his shame lies with the Yankees. The Mariners stuff is very much a historical footnote at this point. Russell Wilson is, the exact comp in my mind though. We agree on that. Slightly different tracks, very similar arcs.
John: I agree that his national identity as a villain grew primarily once he became a Yankee. But he never did a thing to mitigate his villainy here, and he committed the three cardinal sins of an athlete in terms of turning fans against you without doing actual crimes against humanity:
Greed (taking the money from TEX),
Disloyalty (spurning Seattle for a division rival, then compounding that by going to the Evil Empire),
Cheating (repeatedly and at the apex of the sort of distrustful view towards baseball stars re: PEDs)
Evan: I don’t disagree with you, I just think that’s our very small angle and the rest of baseball doesn’t really remember it that way or any way. The zeitgeist remembers him as a Yankee and his Yankee story first and foremost, no matter the truth.
Ryan Blake: I’ve always wondered why ARod gets hate and Junior is beloved but I don’t know enough about how either left. I loved ARod growing up because I thought it was cool he used to play for the Mariners and they were otherwise irrelevant and didn’t realize until later there was animosity about him disappearing.
Isabelle: ARod gets the hate because he was so open about it being money-driven, and that felt like a particular betrayal vs Junior leaving to be nearer to his family. It just felt like such a keen betrayal, particularly for a region and fanbase where loyalty – through good and so much bad – is prized.
Nick T: The people of Seattle would’ve found all the grace in the world for him if he’d shown them a single reason to give it, and he didn’t. He could’ve literally made something up and gotten away with it!
Evan: You’re completely right, and I would be mad about it, if I wasn’t convinced he was truly one the most deranged people in the sport. So my feels are conflicted.
Nick: Yea and he bailed on the people who were trying to help steer him in the right direction
Amanda Lane: Just had to pop in and drop a little something:
If you weren’t around then, you cannot possible understand without taking in the context of everything then. It simply cannot be understood through today’s lens at all. This was when athlete contracts in every sport were starting to get insane, when the cost of attending games was skyrocketing, when the Mariners lost Randy Johnson in 1998 and Ken Griffey Jr in 1999, then Alex in 2000. I say boo about him on Bluesky and end up blocking at least a few people because people are still INSANELY angry over him leaving. He was booed more than anyone else in the history of Seattle sports when he came back. And he wasn’t just booed here, it was everywhere. But nowhere as loud as here.
So much of the feeling of betrayal came from how deeply he was loved here, and how he said he wanted to stay and it wasn’t about the money, he just wanted to play for a winner. Then he signed for that much money with a really sucky Texas team. AND, something a lot of people hold on to too, is after he signed with Texas he was somehow roped into writing a letter urging Boeing to relocate to Dallas.
Evan: I will be 37 this month. I remember. Maybe it’s social media and the relationship people have with athletes now and the proximity, but it just feels so much closer now than it did 20 years ago, for me anyways. I wrote Arod a letter on his personal website page asking him why he left when I was in 4th grade, in front of a cheese grater Macintosh computer, in between sessions of WordMuncher and MathBlaster. It feels like so much has changed. Maybe I don’t remember it like I should.
John: I think if it happened now it would be a big deal and also he’d be not nearly as uniquely villainized. Like Kyle Tucker got booed massively the other day in his first return to Chicago and his postgame quotes were honestly fabulous and kinda heartbreaking. Basically “I played through a broken bone and multiple injuries to try and be good here, it didn’t work out and I wish it had. I get how passionate they are here, I’m glad they’re contenders too,.”
Amanda: Something I think about now too, sports writers drove a lot of public opinion about sports and they had been vocal for a long time about rising salaries and how it was ruining baseball. When Alex signed that contract with Texas, it had only been about 20 years of full free-agency. So many of those writers were working in the days before any free agency.
John: Exactly Amanda. My brothers are in their early 50s, they were in their early 30s when this all went down, they were huge baseball fans and diehard M’s fans. The first 10+ years of their lives, free agency didn’t exist!
Evan: It’s like when people say “you’re as close to Cleopatra as she was to the building the of the pyramids” but it’s “you’re as close to Carlos Triunfel as you are to free agency.”
ZAM: Ultimately, there’s four things going on here.
1. What happened at the time.
2. How you personally feel about it/how you think people should feel.
3. How most people feel about it now.
4. What A-Rod’s experience was.
I think 1 and 4 are very closely connected and that’s what sparked this conversation. I’m not surprised that A-Rod feels like there’s baggage. He’s obviously a messy bitch who loves drama in all facets of life (what was that post-JLo break up insta post with I wanna say Coldplay?), but I think anyone would have a hard time not dwelling on what it was like to come back here in the early 00s.
Also, please don’t put in the newspaper that I called A-Rod a messy bitch who loves drama.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - AUGUST 06: Andrew Pickney #45 of the Washington Nationals celebrates with teammate Jacob Young #30 after hitting a solo home run in the fourth inning during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 6, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Phillies won 7-3. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Nationals ended a difficult road trip with a 7-3 loss to the Phillies on Thursday afternoon, dropping three of four in Philadelphia and eight of their last nine games overall. Miles Mikolas allowed six runs and a season-high 12 hits over five innings, while the Phillies collected eight doubles among their 16 hits. The bright spot for the Nats was Andrew Pinckney, who hit his first major-league home run in his first career start. The loss dropped the Nationals to 56-61, five games below .500 and 5.5 games out of a Wild Card spot.
The Nats will now return home for a three-game series against the 56-58 Cincinnati Reds, one of the hottest teams in baseball since the All-Star break. Cincinnati has gone 13-6 during the second half and enters Washington on a four-game winning streak after sweeping the Athletics. Elly De La Cruz and Tyler Stephenson both homered in Thursday’s 6-5 victory, while rookie Sal Stewart hit his 25th home run of the season.
Petty will serve as the opener in what is expected to be a bullpen game for the Reds. He recently returned from the injured list and has not pitched more than 2⅓ innings in an appearance since June 4, so the Nationals should expect to see several Reds relievers Friday night.
Cavalli recorded his fifth consecutive quality start last Sunday against the Braves, allowing three runs—two earned—over six innings while striking out three. He has taken the mantle of most dependable Nats starter with Foster Griffin gone and will look to continue his success against a solid Reds lineup.
Burns has been one of baseball’s best starting pitchers this season and was dominant in his last outing against Pittsburgh, allowing one run on two hits over six innings while striking out nine. He earned his 13th win of the season in the 10-2 victory and has already beaten the Nationals once this season, throwing six scoreless innings against them in May.
Alvarez pitched very efficiently last time out against the Phillies, entering the 7th inning with a low pitch count and cruising, with zero runs allowed. Unfortunately, he allowed 2 runners on base and departed, and the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead, surrendering a grand slam, adding 2 runs to Alvarez’s final line.
Game Three – Sunday 12:15 PM ET
CIN: RHP Brady Singer (5-10, 4.67 ERA) WSH: TBD
Singer allowed three runs over six innings while striking out six in his last start against the Athletics. Although his overall numbers have been inconsistent, he has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts and will look to give the Reds another solid outing in the series finale.
The Nationals have not yet announced a starter for Sunday afternoon. With an unusual 12:15 start time and national coverage on Peacock and NBCSN, the Nats will be looking to close the weekend—and a stretch of 17 consecutive games—with a much-needed series victory.
DENVER, COLORADO - AUGUST 5: Junior Caminero #13 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates in the dugout after hitting a third inning solo home run against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 5, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Mariners marketing machine has been building the hype for this weekend’s festivities for months, but I’m finding it extremely difficult to get excited about a team that seemingly has no interest in actually winning their games. Getting shutout twice against the Tigers — a team that sold at the trade deadline — was a product of the same frustrating listless offense that’s plagued the team since June. The schedule in August doesn’t get any easier from here; after this series against the Rays, the best team in the AL, the M’s embark on a nine-game road trip through New York, Houston, and Milwaukee. First, this anniversary weekend awaits. Surely, nothing bad will happen on a sold out event weekend with high expectations for the team.
The Rays have held the best record in the AL since the end of June and it really doesn’t seem like they’re going to let up. Yes, their underlying peripherals point to some regression at some point this season, they’ve also banked so many wins already they’re virtually guaranteed a playoff berth even if they come crashing back down to Earth. And again, it really doesn’t seem like they’re going to any time soon. They made some targeted improvements at the trade deadline, the pitching staff has been as solid as ever, and the top half of the lineup is carrying the offense.
Player
Position
Bats
PA
K%
BB%
ISO
wRC+
Yandy Díaz
DH
R
480
15.0%
9.0%
0.158
133
Jonathan Aranda
1B
L
484
22.9%
11.4%
0.147
127
Junior Caminero
3B
R
498
18.3%
12.2%
0.275
155
Liam Hicks
C
L
419
9.3%
10.0%
0.157
121
Victor Mesa Jr.
RF
L
151
23.8%
9.9%
0.226
99
Chandler Simpson
LF
L
427
9.1%
4.7%
0.058
92
Cedric Mullins
CF
L
380
20.8%
7.9%
0.153
78
Richie Palacios
2B
L
269
19.0%
11.5%
0.115
91
Taylor Walls
SS
S
319
25.4%
11.0%
0.066
69
With the trio of Junior Caminero, Yandy Díaz, and Jonathan Aranda anchoring the top of the Rays’ lineup, they went out and added Liam Hicks at the trade deadline to improve the production they’re getting from catcher and significantly lengthen the lineup. Caminero has been absolutely scorching hot since the end of June; over his last 40 games, he’s blasted 18 home runs and posted a 180 wRC+. The rest of the lineup is filled with flexible role players and platoons which force opponents into uncomfortable matchups throughout the game.
Maybe it’s due to his lengthy injury history or simply the fact that he plays in Tampa Bay, but Drew Rasmussen is one of the more underrated starters in baseball. He’s earned his flowers the last couple of years, earning All-Star honors in both 2025 and ‘26. His foundation is a trio of fastballs that each break in a different direction, presenting a headache for batters trying to sit on any one of them. He’s added a new changeup this year and that offspeed pitch is actually running the highest whiff rate of any of his pitches. He’s also got a pair of decent breaking balls he can mix in when he really needs to keep batters off balance. Oh, and his command is impeccable, elevating his entire arsenal.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Griffin Jax
91.2
26.4%
7.9%
16.9%
45.2%
3.63
3.94
George Kirby
127
21.0%
5.0%
10.7%
45.2%
3.76
3.58
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
12.1%
21.3%
96.0
108
126
76
0.359
Sinker
31.8%
14.2%
95.5
99
94
113
0.342
Cutter
0.6%
5.3%
92.8
93
Changeup
12.1%
30.1%
91.0
100
133
87
0.265
Curveball
3.1%
12.8%
85.0
119
147
91
0.256
Sweeper
40.4%
16.3%
87.7
106
112
88
0.303
From a previous series preview:
Griffin Jax was an odd trade deadline acquisition last July. The Rays weren’t in a position to buy, but they traded Taj Bradley straight up for Jax, who was one of the best setup men in baseball at the time. Jax struggled as a reliever with the Rays and the team decided to convert him to a starter on the fly in May. It’s not the worst idea in the world; Jax has a deep repertoire that didn’t fit a traditional high-leverage reliever. Things have worked out pretty well despite the odd timing of it all. Across 18 starts and 82.2 IP, he has a 3.16 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 3.91 K/BB out of the rotation.
Jax allowed just a single run against the Mariners during that series in Tampa Bay. He covered five innings, allowed four hits and three walks, and struck out three.
Pitcher
IP
K%
BB%
HR/FB%
GB%
ERA
FIP
Ian Seymour
84.1
28.4%
8.0%
11.9%
28.9%
4.27
3.89
Emerson Hancock
116.1
23.2%
6.2%
11.4%
41.8%
3.33
3.76
Pitch
Usage vRHB
Usage vLHB
Velocity
Stuff+
Whiff+
BIP+
xwOBA
Four-seam
32.1%
16.4%
91.5
101
111
89
0.302
Sinker
6.3%
27.3%
90.0
94
59
125
0.459
Cutter
1.2%
0.0%
87.1
Changeup
35.5%
22.6%
83.4
94
125
93
0.223
Curveball
1.5%
0.2%
72.7
Slider
1.4%
7.8%
82.6
Sweeper
22.1%
25.8%
81.3
123
100
149
0.283
From a previous series preview:
Ian Seymour started off last year in the bullpen but had a brief but successful stint as a starter to finish the season. Tampa Bay stuck him back in the bullpen to start this year and he eventually worked his way into a high-leverage role for a while. He’s been working as a starter for the past month and that might be his most successful role to date. He’s posted a matching 3.71 ERA and FIP in 11 appearances — seven traditional starts — since moving into the rotation.
Seymour was the only pitcher the Mariners were able to figure out back in July; he was battered for six runs in 3.1 innings.
The Big Picture:
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Astros
59-57
0.509
—
-25
W-W-L-W-L
Rangers
57-58
0.496
1.5
-33
L-L-L-W-W
Mariners
56-60
0.483
3.0
-14
W-W-L-W-L
Athletics
45-70
0.391
13.5
-157
L-L-L-L-L
Angels
44-71
0.383
14.5
-76
L-W-L-L-W
Team
W-L
W%
Games Behind
Run Diff
Recent Form
Yankees
64-51
0.557
+7.0
+81
L-W-L-W-L
Red Sox
63-51
0.553
+6.5
+77
W-W-W-W-W
Rangers
57-58
0.496
—
-33
L-L-L-W-W
Guardians
57-59
0.491
0.5
-28
L-W-L-L-L
Twins
57-59
0.491
0.5
-35
L-L-L-L-W
Orioles
56-59
0.487
1.0
-33
L-L-W-W-L
Tigers
56-59
0.487
1.0
+80
W-W-W-L-W
Mariners
56-60
0.483
1.5
-14
W-W-L-W-L
The Mariners couldn’t gain any ground on the Astros this week even though they lost their series against the Blue Jays. The Rangers managed to gain a game by taking two of three against the Giants. Houston travels to San Diego this weekend while Texas hosts the Orioles. The Wild Card standings are too difficult to parse right now.
Tarik Skubal, Dodger (Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
The Wild Card Race
Every win against the Dodgers is cause to celebrate, from the perspective that the underdog winner against the odds, and from the perspective that every win is a step closer to the NL Wild card into the playoffs, where anything could happen.
The Dodgers can be beat. After the Red Sox swept the Dodgers (31 July to 2 August), Dave Roberts said, “…If you look at it unemotionally, they outplayed us. You know, they were hungrier….” Recent wins show that the Diamondbacks are intensely hungry to reach the playoffs. And in July, the Diamondbacks swept the Dodgers in a 3-game series.
Will the Dodgers avenge their lost series in July, or will the Diamondbacks repeat with a second consecutive series win?
Let’s compare the teams.
The Obvious. Two points.
The Dodgers are heavy favorites to reach and win the World Series. They added Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline. Their players are talented and their depth is outstanding.
The Diamondbacks are intensely focusing on their mission to reach the playoffs. Although they are underdogs, they have real chances to win the series against the Dodgers.
The Subtle. Although the Diamondbacks have a well deserved reputation for excellent defense, one defensive metric agrees with that idea, and another defensive metric disagrees with that idea.
Outs Above Average (OAA). Diamondbacks are better (32 vs 21). OAA emphasizes range to reach ball and play difficulty.
Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Dodgers are better (53 vs 20). DRS has a broader range of skills because it includes arm strngth, double plays, and other facets.
The Difference That Matters. The Diamondbacks defense is better in right field (7 DRS vs negative 5 DRS). The reason for the defensive difference is that Corbin Carroll has 9 OAA while Kyle Tucker has negative 6 OAA. In addition, Corbin Carroll bats better (OPS+ of 121 vs 100).
Dodgers Player to Watch.
Barring any last minute changes, the Diamondbacks will not see the new Dodgers starting pitcher. How would their trade deadline acquisition, Tarik Skubal, fare if he pitched against the Diamondbacks?
In Skubal’s first start as a Dodger he lost, despite pitching a quality start. The Dodgers only scored one run in that game. For the season, the Dodgers have less runs scored per game than the Diamondbacks. Unless the Dodgers provide better run support, my view is that Skubal would not fare any better against the Diamondbacks.
Pitching Matchups.
The pitching matchups have not yet been announced. perhaps they will be as follows.
Friday, 6:40 PM MST.
Merrill Kelly vs Roki Sasaki. In July/August, Kelly had a better ERA (3.03 vs 4.00), while Sasaki had more quality starts (2 vs 1).
This matchup is slight advantage Diamondbacks.
Saturday, 5:10 PM MST.
Brandon Pfaadt vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Recently, each of these pitchers had a lot of quality starts (4 for Yamamoto and 3 for Pfaadt). However, in July/August, Pfaadt had a much better ERA (1.53 vs 3.00).
This matchup is advantage Diamondbacks.
Sunday, 1:10 PM MST.
Eduardo Rodriguez vs Justin Wrobleski. In July/August, Rodriguez had a better ERA (4.19 vs 5.32), and he had more quality starts (4 vs 2).
The Yankees continue to lean almost exclusively on their pitching staff to keep them in games, the offense managing two or fewer runs in six of their last seven games. It doesn’t feel like a sustainable approach, but for now it’s what they’ve got while they await the returns of Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton from injury. Indeed, perhaps the best pitching performance of the last week belongs to Ryan Weathers, who completed six scoreless innings against the Cardinals to hand them their only win in that series.
We join Weathers in the sixth inning of the middle game against the Cardinals on Tuesday. His performance thus far continues a fascinating trend where the lefty seemingly pitches better the less run support he receives. Solo home runs by Jazz Chisholm Jr. and George Lombard Jr. on his MLB debut have staked Weathers to a 2-0 lead. However, he is facing the sternest test of this outing — runners on the corners with two outs following a JJ Wetherholt walk and Iván Herrera single with two outs as the top of the order faces Weathers for the third time.
Despite a pitch count of just 80, you get a sense that José Fermín will be the last batter Weathers faces — something Aaron Boone confirmed in his post game presser as he and Matt Blake perceived fatigue beginning to set in. To this point, Fermín has grounded out twice, Weathers attacking the righty with sinkers, changeups, and sliders, and there is no deviation in course as the Yankees lefty starts this encounter with a first-pitch sinker.
Weathers’ front shoulder opens a fraction early, causing him to sail this sinker well wide of the strike zone away. The result is a pretty straightforward take from Fermín against a pitch that never looked like a strike.
After Fermín spat on that outside sinker, a sneaky choice from Weathers would be a get-me-over backdoor sweeper for a called strike to get back into the count as it should look just like that sinker that missed out of the hand.
You can see how effective it is to follow a sinker called as a ball away with a backdoor sweeper. It looks just like the previous pitch, causing Fermín to give up on it early as it starts in the opposite batter’s box, only for its glove side movement to carry it back into the zone. It’s this type of sequencing that can cause a hitter to take a pitch that ends up pretty much down the middle.
Now that Weathers has shown Fermín a pitch that starts away before breaking back into the zone, it makes sense to follow it with a pitch away that breaks in the opposite direction — in this case the changeup.
Weathers executes an absolute beauty of a changeup dotted right on the corner low and away. You can see how much it looks like the previous sweeper that was called a strike, which explains why Fermín fouls this pitch to the opposite field, his swing expecting something that will break toward him resulting in the bat head staying too far inside a pitch that breaks away for him to barrel it.
It’s pretty obvious that Weathers is going to go away away away for the entire AB. Playing off of Fermín’s take on the first sweeper he threw for a called strike, Weathers tries to achieve the same result with another backdoor sweeper.
This time, Fermín is ready for the pitch. He too likely realized that Weathers is targeting the outer half of the strike zone, which means that a pitch that starts way outside is likely to be a backdoor breaker. Fermín correctly diagnoses that pitch out of Weathers’ hand and pulls the ball viciously down the third base line just foul. Despite the desired result with the first sweeper he threw, it’s a pretty dangerous pitch to throw multiple times against a righty. The sweeper suffers a significant platoon disadvantage against opposite-handed batters on account of the lift it generates relative to other breaking balls, and indeed you can see the way this sweeper enters the hitting zone pretty flat, which results in a pitch that breaks right into the nitro zone of a right-handed hitter.
Thankfully, Weathers abandons the pitch for the rest of the AB as he likely realizes that he dodged a bullet with Fermín not able to keep that batted ball fair. He returns to his trusty changeup — a much safer pitch to throw to a righty given that it breaks away from and not toward the barrel when employing an outer-half approach.
Unfortunately for Weathers, he opens his front side too early just like the first pitch sinker he threw, causing this changeup to sail way wide arm-side. You might think this was a non-competitive pitch given how far away it landed from the strike zone, but you can see how Fermín was initially tempted to chase away thanks to Weathers sequencing this changeup off the backdoor sweeper that preceded it.
With the sixth pitch, Weathers chooses to throw his first slider of the AB. Austin Wells sets an initial central aiming point, which should result in a back-foot slider given the pitch’s movement down and in.
Instead, Weathers nails that initial target that Wells flashes with his glove — an absolute cookie of a hanging slider right down the middle that he is lucky Fermín fails to punish. That’s three breaking balls — two sweepers and a slider — that Weathers leaves central, which should be enough to convince him to not throw another.
So far, the pitch that Weathers looks most likely to get Fermín to chase out of the zone is the changeup. If he can replicate his execution of the first one he threw, he should be able to end the inning with a strikeout or at least some weak contact.
This is now the third time that Weathers is unable to finish an arm-side breaking pitch to the outer half as it is now patently obvious that he has run out of steam and does not have the stamina to keep that front shoulder closed long enough to set his throwing arm down the correct path. Now, it’s just a matter of whether he can survive this AB as really only one of the seven pitches so far has been executed to its spot.
After six straight off-speed pitches, Weathers must feel that he can gas a heater by Fermín, his hand also forced a bit by Fermín battling back to work the count full and not wanting to load the bases for St Louis’ cleanup hitter.
Instead of commanding this sinker to the corner, Weathers leaves it up and catches more of the plate than you would like. This allows Fermín to barrel the pitch as he is absolutely ready to hit the fastball despite the steady diet of off-speed. It’s the first pitch Weathers has thrown that has an initial trajectory toward the inner half of the zone, which combined with the clear approach to pitch Fermín away makes it pretty obvious this is a fastball out of the hand. Luckily for Weathers and the Yankees, Fermín almost hits this ball too well, allowing it to hang up in the air long enough for Heliot Ramos to glove the liner for the final out, stranding runners on the corners as Weathers completes six shutout.
Here’s the full sequence:
Boone clearly made the right call to end Weathers’ night there at 88 pitches given the faltering command against the final three batters he faced. All the same, it represents yet another strong start for the Yankees’ southpaw, who has now allowed just one earned run in his last 20.1 innings pitched. As I hypothesized when writing about Weathers’ choice of fastball and as my colleague Andrés further investigated yesterday, Weathers’ U-turn comes courtesy of a shift in pitch usage, the lefty exchanging out many of his four-seamers for sinkers while also increasing deployment of the changeup and slider to mitigate the home run woes of the first half of his season.
This turnaround in form comes at just the right time for Weathers — he started his season off strong before encountering a serious sticky patch in May and early June, finding his footing as the Yankees crystalize their rotation plans with Carlos Rodón nearing a return from left elbow inflammation. Conversely, Will Warren has a 5.44 ERA in his last ten starts while Weathers owns a 2.89 ERA in his last nine over the same timeframe. At this point, it is clear who deserves to remain in the rotation vs. who has earned a demotion to the bullpen.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 6: Kazuma Okamoto #7 of the Toronto Blue Jays breaks his bat while hitting a single during the third inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on August 6, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
For the second straight series, the Phillies will face a team that sold at the deadline. The defending American League champions have endured a massively disappointing season, and now players like Daulton Varsho, Kevin Gausman, and Jeff Hoffman have been sent elsewhere. (Good luck to the Twins if they hope to use Hoffman in high leverage spots in a playoff game.)
The Blue Jays’ offense has been a disaster this season ranking dead last in runs scored despite the presence of stars like Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and George Springer. One bright spot earlier in the season was an import from Japan, but lately he’s been struggling as much as his teammates.
Opposition research: Kazuma Okamoto
When Japanese players come to MLB, they usually prefer to play for a West Coast team. But when former Nippon Professional League star Kazuma Okamoto came over, he took a different path. He apparently asked his daughter to pick her favorite logo, and she chose the Blue Jays.
Kazuma Okamoto decided to sign with the Blue Jays because he put every MLB logos in front of his daughter and she pointed at the Blue Jays 💙
It was suggested that the Phillies pursue him, but I’m not sure how serious their inquiries were. If they missed out, maybe this is a sign to change up their logo, perhaps to one that better appeals to the youth of Japan.
Despite getting off to a slow start, Okamoto had a solid first half of the season, putting up a .788 OPS with 22 home runs while playing solid defense at third base. (He won the equivalent of the Gold Glove in Japan, so this isn’t surprising.)
But he has slumped lately, batting just .208 over the past month.
Okamoto seems to be slowing down a tad, this should be expected NPB season are not as long. I’m not all that surprised he struggled to start, had a great middle of the year when he settled and is slowing down a bit to end. The first year is always the toughest typically
The Phillies have done a relatively good job of shutting down his countryman Shohei Ohtani, and they’re off to a good start with Okamoto, limiting him to one hit in ten at bats when they faced him earlier this season.
Hating on the Blue Jays
The Dodgers are favorites to win their third straight championship this season, and that could have been prevented had the Blue Jays simply took care of business in the World Series last year.
Watching the end of game 7 never gets old. Don’t blame the dodgers for ruining baseball. Blame Jeff Hoffman for blowing a lead and the blue jays for not capitalizing with the bases loaded and 1 out. pic.twitter.com/nLBb80Kg7E
Their misfortune this season is likely karmic punishment for not getting the job done.
Trivia
Last week’s answer: Joe Morgan showed up big in the 1983 World Series, with a 1.018 OPS and two home runs. (Too bad his teammates didn’t follow suit.) GoPhilsGoBirds was correct.
This week’s question: Paul Molitor was the MVP of the 1993 World Series thanks in part to his 12 hits in the series. Which of his teammates matched those 12 hits?
Additional thought about the series
Saturday’s scheduled starters are Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer, and I remember back in 2018 when they had an terrific pitching duel. Somehow, I don’t think they’ll be repeating that this season.
On Sunday, Shane Bieber is scheduled to start for the Jays, and I was shocked to learn that he’s only 31 years of age. It seems like he’s been around forever, even though due to injuries he hasn’t actually been around all that much. This is his third straight season shortened by injuries, and he hasn’t pitched very well since making his season debut in late June. (Although he is coming off a solid start).
As for the Phillies, the addition of Luis Arraez seems to have energized the offense. But until (if?) Kyle Schwarber can break out of his current malaise; the offense isn’t going to be all that good. The Phillies always seem to have at least a couple of players not doing much at the bottom of the lineup, so they simply can’t afford to have one of their stars mired in a massive slump.
The Detroit Free Press, part of the USA TODAY Network, reported that team owner Chris Ilitch has employed a search firm to find a replacement for general manager Steve Yzerman. Yzerman will move up to a senior advisor position after seven years as GM. Assistant GM Shawn Horcoff is handling day-to-day responsibilities, though that does not extend to making trades, the Free Press said.
Dylan Larkin trade request
The Red Wings star's trade request happened after the regular season and leaked in early June. He has a no-trade clause and has listed the Florida Panthers, Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild as preferred trade destinations. Yzerman said after the draft that he would act only in the best interest of the team. That decision likely will fall to Yzerman's successor. Larkin has five years left on his contract, so the Red Wings don't have to rush to make a move. But things could get complicated for Larkin as team captain if the situation isn't resolved before training camp.
Quinn Hughes contract extension
The Wild sent a big haul to the Vancouver Canucks to land the coveted defenseman last winter and he's about to enter the final year of his contract. Minnesota would like to sign him to an extension.
"I've been talking to Quinn and his camp all along," general manager Bill Guerin said on the "Judd's Hockey Show" podcast this week. "These things take time. They're big decisions for players. They're big decisions for teams. It's a process to work through it."
A three-year extension through 2029-30 would line Quinn up with the end of the contract of his brother Jack, who's playing for the New Jersey Devils. Quinn Hughes should pass Chicago's Bowen Byram ($12.5 million) as the top-paid defenseman with his next contract − and likely Celebrini as the top-paid player.
Colorado defenseman Cale Makar, a two-time Norris Trophy winner, is also up for an extension and could set records.
Top remaining restricted free agents
Some big names still have to be signed.
Ducks forward Cutter Gauthier is coming off a 41-goal season, but after Carlsson's deal, Anaheim has a little more than $9 million left. Gauthier is expected to come in above that, meaning the Ducks will need to trade someone.
Columbus Blue Jackets center Adam Fantilli also needs a new deal. He was drafted third overall in 2023 behind Bedard and Carlsson. Columbus has a little less than $14.5 million left in cap space.
Other unsigned restricted free agents include Carolina defenseman Alexander Nikishin, Detroit defenseman Simon Edvinsson and Montreal forward Zach Bolduc.
Top remaining unrestricted free agents
There are plenty left, though available roster spots are shrinking.
Vladimir Tarasenko is the biggest name. The six-time 30-goal scorer hasn't been at that level recently, but he had two 23-goal seasons over the last three seasons.
Other UFA forwards include Michael Bunting, who has an edge to his game, Eeli Tolvanen and James van Riemsdyk.
UFA defensemen include John Klingberg, Logan Stanley and Nick Blankenburg, and goalies include Connor Ingram, Matt Murray and Cam Talbot.
A Cook County Medical Examiner’s Office spokesperson confirmed on Friday, Aug. 7 to USA TODAY Sports that King died June 7 of hypertensive cardiovascular disease, which is a complication of long-term high blood pressure. Obesity was also cited as a contributing factor.
King died in his home in River Forest, Illinois. He was 59.
After his death, tributes poured in from all corners of the basketball world.
In the Chicago neighborhood of Logan Square, which is northwest of downtown, a mural was painted to honor him.
The mural depicts a close-up of King’s face against a black background. To his right, a silhouette of the Bulls logo wears a crown, in homage to King’s last name.
One of King’s broadcast catchphrases – “Too big, too strong, too fast, too good” – is captioned to the left of the mural.
King played eight seasons in the NBA from 1989-97, five of which came with the Bulls. The sixth pick out of Oklahoma in the 1989 draft, King was a 6-foot-11 big man who won three NBA championships alongside Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen in his first five seasons in Chicago.
He later played stints with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics.
King averaged 6.4 points, 3.3 rebounds and 0.9 assists across his 438 career games.
After his playing career ended, he joined the team’s broadcast crew in 2006 and became its color commentator. He was the voice that a generation of Bulls fans grew up hearing, even the reason some tuned in at all during a lot of lean years.
"Stacey King was a cherished member of the Bulls family and one of the truly unique personalities in our organization's history," Bulls chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said June 7 in a statement. "His connection to Chicago, the Bulls and our fans spanned more than three decades – first as a player and later as the unmistakable voice that helped bring Bulls basketball into the homes of generations of fans."
But despite the fact that the Mets are essentially playing out the string, there are still important things to watch down the stretch.
And with New York planning to retool this coming offseason with an eye on being a playoff contender in 2027, there are five specific players whose performances over the final 46 games could have a big impact on how next season's roster is assembled.
Yes, the continued acclimation to the majors for outfielders Carson Benge and A.J. Ewing will be big over the next two months, as will the development of Nolan McLean and Christian Scott.
But their roles for next season are pretty much cemented.
The same can't be said for these five players, whose successes or failures could help shape how David Stearns and the club's front office operate this winter...
Semien will probably always be a polarizing name for Mets fans because he was acquired in the Brandon Nimmo trade. But looking at Semien as a Nimmo replacement never made sense -- he was simply the means through which the Mets extricated themselves from the final two years of Nimmo's contract.
And while Nimmo is still a productive offensive player (127 OPS+ ahead of play on Friday), his power is down, with him pacing for 17 homers in 154 games this season. More notable is that Nimmo's outfield defense has continued to decline, with him in the 23rd percentile this season in OAA, via Baseball Savant (he was in the 41st percentile in 2025 and the 66th percentile in 2024).
Add to the equation that there would be no room for Nimmo in an outfield with Juan Soto, Benge, and Ewing, and I think it's fair to say we've reached the point where relitigating the Semien-Nimmo trade is pointless.
Jul 29, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets second baseman Marcus Semien (10) attempts to turn a double play after forcing out Atlanta Braves second baseman Ozzie Albies (1) during the fifth inning at second base at Citi Field. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
In any event, Semien remains on the Mets, and he has two years left on his deal at $24 million annually for luxury tax purposes. That means that despite how Semien performs for the remainder of the season, he will almost certainly be a Met on Opening Day in 2027. But what will his role be?
Semien, who posted a 93 OPS+ last season after being a tick above average (103 OPS+) in 2024, will likely never again be the player he was between 2019 and 2023, when he had an .820 OPS. But it's fair to wonder if the hip injury he played through earlier this season had a serious impact on him.
The early returns since he came back from the IL suggest it did, with Semien putting up a .745 OPS with four homers in 17 games since being activated, and him playing much smoother defense at second base.
If Semien can simply be a league average hitter, and he shows his poor defense was due in large part to the hip injury, he could fit firmly in New York's plans for next season.
It would be an understatement to say it has been a rough go for Polanco in his first season in New York.
Signed in part to play first base (though it always felt like he would be mainly a DH), Polanco has been limited to 30 games due to an Achilles issue and has been relegated to strictly DH duties for now due to his physical issues.
In those 30 games, Polanco has hit just .144/.202/.243 with two home runs, mustering a .445 OPS.
And if you're looking for a silver lining in Polanco's advanced stats, you won't find it.
Polanco has been trying to swing out of his struggles, recently taking 300 swings before Wednesday's game -- where he had a homer and double.
Aug 5, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Mets designated hitter Jorge Polanco (11) celebrates his solo home run in the third inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. / David Richard-Imagn Images
It remains possible that Polanco gets healthy and produces at a level that warrants his inclusion as a regular player on the Mets in 2027.
If not, parting ways with him this offseason or at some point during the 2027 campaign wouldn't be terribly complicated, since next season is his final year under contract -- though the $20 million luxury tax number is hefty.
Following the trades of Luke Weaver (who was under contract through 2027) and Huascar Brazoban (who was under team control through 2029), the Mets are going to have to basically rebuild their bullpen from scratch.
Devin Williams will be a part of it next season, but it's mostly question marks beyond that.
Senga, in two appearances since being asked to transition to a high-leverage relief role, is showing that he could potentially be one of the answers.
Interim manager Andy Green said that Senga's stuff -- specifically his high-octane four-seam fastball and devastating ghost fork -- should play up in relief. And that's what has happened in the small sample size we have to go by.
Aug 4, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Mets catcher Luis Torrens (13) and relief pitcher Kodai Senga (34) celebrate a win over the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. / David Richard - Imagn Images
On Thursday against the Guardians in Cleveland, Senga fired a 1-2-3 inning while throwing primarily four-seamers and forkballs -- with his fastball topping out at 100 mph.
That came after a promising performance in Tuesday's series-opener where Senga worked around a walk in an otherwise spotless ninth inning.
Also a possible part of a remade Mets bullpen in 2027, the early returns for Lavender have been good.
The left-hander has tossed 2.1 hitless innings over two games, allowing one walk and striking out three.
Along the way, Lavender has generated plenty of uncomfortable swings from opposing hitters, which is something he did throughout his career in the minors.
In parts of five minor league seasons, the 26-year-old had a 2.78 ERA while fanning 244 batters in 158.2 innings -- a strikeout rate of 13.6 per nine.
The Mets already know what they have in Núñez, who was one of the team's best relievers in 2024 (2.31 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 in 35.0 innings) before getting hurt.
Núñez's 2025 season was then wiped out by Tommy John surgery after just 10 games, with him recently returning.
If Núñez can stay healthy and maintain his fastball velocity, his four-seamer/slider combo could be a key part of New York's bullpen going forward.
On Wednesday against the Guardians in his first big league outing since returning, Núñez's four-seamer (which averaged 96.3 mph in 2024) averaged 97.0 mph and topped out at 98.4.
Jo Adell
Alec Burleson
Rafael Devers
