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We've got a full slate of baseball ahead, and our MLB Expert Picks have you covered.

We're coming at the New York Mets-Cincinnati Reds game from a couple of angles, but both anticipate some runs to be scored at Great American Ballpark.

That and more in our MLB picks for Tuesday, June 16.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: NYM/CIN Over 9.5	-113
Jon Metler: STL ML	-108
Neil Parker: NYM ML	-113
Joe Osborne: PIT/A's Over 10.5	-117

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mets vs. Reds - Over 9.5

Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket

Let's take the Over at Great American Ballpark, which grades out as the second-best park for runs today, per Ballpark Pal, aided by a bit of wind blowing out to left field.

The Cincinnati Reds hung a 12-pack in the opener last night and could keep the offense rolling against New York Mets right-hander Kodai Senga, who is making his first start since a spine/arm injury. 

Senga was getting crushed before landing on the IL, allowing 17 runs over his final 8 1/3 innings across three starts. His fly ball rate has also spiked this season, which is never ideal in this park. 

On the other side, Brady Singer owns one of the worst HR/FB rates in baseball, and his 4.9 K/9 at home is a massive drop from his 8.3 K/9 mark on the road. THE BAT projections make this fair closer to -164 with 11.82 projected runs.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNY, Reds.TV

Jon Metler's expert pick: Cardinals moneyline

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

One team has the star power and the bigger names, but the other side is offering the value.

The St. Louis Cardinals are trading at 52 cents, while I make them closer to 56, giving us enough edge to back them in this spot. Michael King takes the mound for the San Diego Padres, and he leans heavily on his sweeping slider, which generates a ton of horizontal movement and is particularly effective against right-handed hitters. 

The problem for King is that St. Louis is expected to feature five left-handed bats, and that slider tends to break into their barrels rather than away from them. I also love the way the Cardinals are constructed offensively. Their ability to alternate left-handed and right-handed hitters throughout the lineup makes it difficult for a pitcher like King to establish a rhythm.

With the handedness constantly changing from one at-bat to the next, King's pitch sequencing and location become more difficult to establish, limiting the effectiveness of his best weapon while creating a favorable matchup for St. Louis.

• Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
• How to watch: TBS

Neil Parker's expert pick: Mets moneyline

Price: 53¢ (-113) at Polymarket

Singer has surrendered the second-highest blast contact rate with the seventh-highest xERA among starters with at least 50 innings this season, so I’m anticipating an improving Mets offense to have success at the dish tonight.

The Mets rank eighth in baseball in xwOBA over the past two weeks, after all, and Senga was in complete command while fanning nine batters across six innings in his latest rehab start with Double-A Binghamton.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SNY, Reds.TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Pirates vs. A's Over 10.5

Price: 54¢ (-117) at Polymarket

Everything points toward a slugfest tonight at Sutter Health Park.

Pittsburgh Pirates righty Mitch Keller is in the middle of a brutal stretch, allowing 18 earned runs across his last three starts while carrying an ugly 8.70 ERA over his last six outings. 

The A’s counter with Jack Perkins, who's primarily worked out of the bullpen. He owns a 6.20 ERA and hasn’t pitched beyond 4 2/3 innings all season. That’s bad news, with both bullpens also struggling, each posting ERAs north of six over the last two weeks.

Add in an A’s offense ranked second in OPS during those two weeks, Pittsburgh’s 15-4 Over run, and 10 mph winds blowing out, and the Over is the clear play.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: SportsNet Pittsburgh, NBC Sports California

More MLB best bets for today

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Brewers fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

We’re back with another Reacts Survey, and this week we’re asking fans about the upcoming All-Star Game in Philadelphia!

While it seems all but guaranteed that we’ll see Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski in the big game, we’re wondering which other Brewer you’d most like to see make an appearance. We’ve narrowed it down to fellow starting pitcher Kyle Harrison, outfielder Jackson Chourio, second baseman Brice Turang, first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers, and catcher William Contreras.

Harrison, 24, is putting together the best year of his career, as he’s totaled 65 2/3 innings over 13 starts for Milwaukee, pitching to a 2.47 ERA, 3.05 FIP, and 80 strikeouts — and that’s including a blow-up appearance where he allowed eight runs in just 2 1/3 innings against the A’s in Las Vegas.

Chourio, 22, missed the first month-plus of the season, but he’s been better than ever since returning, as he’s hitting .322/.370/.572 with nine homers, 11 doubles, 26 RBIs, 27 runs, and five steals across 35 games. He’s also fresh off an NL Player of the Week selection, as he slugged five homers and drove in at least one run in each of Milwaukee’s six games.

Turang, 26, got out to a red-hot start but has cooled off a bit in recent weeks. Even so, he’s hitting .261/.378/.457 with 10 homers, 14 doubles, 42 RBIs, 53 runs, and 12 steals across 65 games while also providing above-average defense. After finishing in 14th place in last year’s MVP voting, it only seems deserving that he should be an All-Star for the first time in his career.

Bauers, 30, is having a bit of a breakout year, as he has 1.7 bWAR over 60 games, easily the best mark of his career. He’s hitting .276/.374/.519 with 13 homers, 12 doubles, 46 RBIs, 40 runs, and five steals, as he’s started to make a few more starts in the outfield as Pat Murphy tries to get both him and the red-hot Andrew Vaughn in the lineup.

Finally, Contreras, 28, continues to be a leader on this young Brewer squad. While he has just 1.3 bWAR, he’s still hitting .295/.352/.411 with six homers, 12 doubles, 43 RBIs, 39 runs, and a steal while providing veteran leadership and leading the league in ABS challenges (his 88 as a catcher easily outpace the second-place Edgar Quero, who has 68).

MLB provided a voting update yesterday, and while pitchers (like Miz and Harrison) aren’t eligible to be selected via votes, all four of the position players mentioned here are within shouting distance:

• Chourio: 15th among outfielders at 252,264 votes (current sixth place: Jordan Walker at 437,071 votes)
• Turang: second among second baseman at 373,656 votes (current second place: Bryson Stott at 399,729 votes)
• Bauers: fourth among first baseman at 207,276 votes (current second place: Matt Olson at 802,848 votes)
• Contreras: fourth among catchers at 303,240 votes (current second place: Will Smith at 662,883 votes)

Which of these five would you most like to see in July’s All-Star Game? Weigh in below and stay tuned for results later this week!

We have talked a lot about the Nats offense this season, and for good reason. Between the star duo of James Wood and CJ Abrams, as well as supporting pieces like Curtis Mead, Jacob Young and Daylen Lile, the boys have gotten a lot of love here. However, one player I have not talked much about is Luis Garcia Jr., and I want to change that.

He has flown under the radar this year, but since the start of May, Garcia has been one of the Nats best run producers. Garcia has 29 RBI since the start of May, and 23 of those have come since May 24th. He always seems to come through with runners on base, and has been a great combination of contact and power in this Nats lineup.

After a rough April, questions loomed about Garcia’s future with the team. Yohandy Morales and Abimelec Ortiz’s performances in AAA put the pressure on Garcia, who moved to first base this year. However, in May he hit .288 with an .818 OPS. In June, his average is only .222, but 7 of his 10 hits have been XBH, which is why he has an .833 OPS. 

At this point, we know who Luis Garcia Jr. is. He has a unique blend of contact skills and power. However, his awful approach prevents him from being a truly great hitter. That has remained the case this season, with Garcia chasing 42% of the time and walking just 3.4% of the time. Despite a solid .259 batting average, his OBP is just .283.

Just because he does not walk does not mean he is a bat hitter. Garcia still has an OPS in the mid .700’s and is on pace for 22 homers and over 100 RBI. The lack of plate discipline is quite frustrating, but that is just part of the package at this point. His ability to hit some of those bad balls makes it more palatable.

From a pure WAR perspective, Garcia is nothing special. He has 0.3 fWAR and 0.6 bWAR. His bat is slightly above average and he does not provide much value in the field or on the bases. However, his ability to drive in runners and be a presence around the Nats star duo does give him some value.

Another thing that Garcia has been doing to give him value comes off the field. When you are around the team, you can tell that Garcia is one of the leaders. Despite having just turned 26, Garcia is the longest tenured Nat and one of the veterans in the clubhouse. He debuted as a 20 year old back in 2020, so he has seen a lot in the league at this point.

One thing Garcia seems to do well is keep the guys loose. He always has a smile on his face, and is one of those guys that realizes baseball should be fun. Garcia is always chatting at the end of the bench and is the ringleader in the Nats new sunflower seed home run celebration.

While the leadership is great, you do need to provide value on the field. The best way Garcia does this is by driving in runs. He has been money in big moments. With the bases loaded, Garcia Jr. is 7/12 this season with 18 RBI. His average with RISP is all the way up at .317.

Garcia does not try to do too much with runners in scoring position. Rather, he just wants to get the bat on the ball and find green grass. He only has one homer with RISP, but he always seems to come through with that RBI single that scores two runners. That is exactly what he did last night.

I am still not sure if Garcia is in the Nats long term plans. His lack of plate discipline or defense really cuts into his value. However, he has been a solid ball player this year, especially since the start of May, where he has an .823 OPS. Garcia hits the ball very hard and makes a ton of contact. Even with his warts, there is value in that profile, especially with runners in scoring position.

Sean McAdam, one of the most experienced reporters on the Red Sox beat, recently wrote that it was “nearly impossible” to imagine Craig Breslow surviving this season as the Red Sox CBO. While that certainly feels true at this juncture, he is only third on this list of front office executives facing the most pressure leading up to this year’s trade deadline. (Buster Olney, ESPN)

What’s so interesting about Breslow’s precarious job security is that he can point to many offseason moves that have unquestionably been smashing successes. The Willson Contreras trade is foremost among them, as Contreras is on pace to hit 38 homers, obliterating his previous career-high of 24. “I’m not looking to put the pressure on myself to get to 30 [home runs], or to get to some number,” he said. “[T]here’s still a lot of season left, but I feel good at the plate, try to make contact, and if I get to 30, thank God.” (Avery Hill, Boston Globe)

Another move that’s worked out is Wilyer Abreu getting at-bats against left-handed pitching. His success is not a coincidence. “Five or six days per week, November into February, he practiced by initially using little more than a traditional pitching machine. Instead of putting the machine on the mound, he shaded it off to the first base side “to exaggerate the angle” of a real lefthanded pitcher. ‘As close as I can, literally behind my back,’ he said. ‘Try to work the angle.” (Tim Healey, Boston Globe)

But despite the success they’ve had this season, neither Contreras or Abreu is going to start the All-Star Game. In fact, with the first round of voting under way, no Red Sox player is even close. (Mac Cerullo, Boston Herald)

If Craig Breslow does decide to sell at the deadline, who are the Sox’ most likely trading partners? Look to the Padres as a good fit for Jarren Duran and the surprising White Sox as a good fit for Sonny Gray and Aroldis Chapman, says one analyst. (Jim Bowden, The Athletic)

But while Gray, Chapman, and possibly Contreras are already considered to be amongst the biggest potential prizes of the trade deadline, some executives are pushing back on the idea that the Red Sox will get a haul for any of them. “I think a lot of these players have a chance to be difference makers, but here would be my questions if acquiring any of them,” one NL executive said. “You have to treat Sonny and Aroldis as one-year deals, and that’s a big buyout. Would you pay Sonny $20 million for the rest of this year? Aroldis will almost certainly opt out…Duran would be a sell-low [option] at this point; he has struggled to hit even though he has had some power.” (Mark Feinsand, MLB.com)

But don’t talk to Sonny Gray about being traded. He says he’s not remotely paying attention to any of that:

Malcolm Moore, the Texas Rangers’ first round draft pick in 2024, has been promoted from high-A Hub City to AA Frisco, it was announced today.

Moore, a 22 year old catcher, had a disappointing 2025 season, as he slashed .195/.300/.276 on the year, primarily at high-A Hub City, while missing time due to a fractured thumb. He also played 17 games in the Arizona Fall League, slashing .231/.275/.328.

Moore returned to Hub City to start the 2026 season and initially got off to a slow start before heating up. He has slashed .300/.387/.542 in 217 plate appearances for Hub City this year, with 10 homers, 20 walks and 42 Ks while throwing out 33% of baserunners. He joins fellow 2024 draftees Dylan Dreiling, Rafe Perich, Keith Jones II, Dalton Pence, Eric Loomis and Joey Danielson on the Frisco roster.

The Roughriders have an 11 a.m. game today, and I would guess Moore will be in the lineup.

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The St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres meet once again tonight as Michael King looks to get back on track. 

However, my Cardinals vs. Padres predictions are targeting St. Louis to capitalize on King's recent struggles with an impressive offenisve display. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, June 16.

Who will win Padres vs Cardinals today: Cardinals moneyline (-109)

San Diego Padres right-hander Michael King hasn't been his dominant self this season, sporting a 4.30 FIP. 

King has compiled a 7.64 xERA and 6.81 FIP across his last two starts while allowing an alarming 2.84 home runs per nine innings. He also owns a 38.6% hard-hit rate during the last month.

The St. Louis Cardinals counter with Andre Pallante, who's allowed a mere 3.2% barrel rate over his last two starts to go along with a solid 3.19 xERA. Pallante has surrendered just 0.77 home runs per nine innings over the last two weeks.

St. Louis should generate offense against King, while Pallante is well positioned to keep a struggling Padres lineup in check.

I'll play this pick up to -130.

COVERS INTEL: The Cardinals have an impressive 48.7% hard hit rate over their last seven games, suggesting this matchup against a struggling King is a perfect spot to keep raking. 

Padres vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

Despite King's recent struggles, he's worked into the sixth inning in three consecutive starts, limiting the amount of bullpen exposure.

San Diego's relief corps has been elite, posting a 2.30 ERA and 3.36 FIP over the last week while allowing just 0.66 home runs per nine innings.

As for St. Louis, Pallante typically pitches into the fifth or sixth inning. While the relief corps owns a 4.46 xERA over the last two weeks, the unit enters extremely well-rested after Dustin May threw a shutout on Monday.

The Padres are batting just .234 over their last six games and own a modest .172 ISO during that stretch. 

I'll play this pick up to -140. 

Padres vs Cardinals odds

• Moneyline: Padres -100 | Cardinals -104
• Run line: Padres -1.5 (+170) | Cardinals +1.5 (-186)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Padres vs Cardinals trend

The Padres have hit the Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cardinals.

How to watch Padres vs Cardinals and game info

Padres vs Cardinals latest injuries

Padres vs Cardinals weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The present day New York Yankees are in a fight for the lead in the American League East. Of course, there’s plenty of season left, but the Tampa Bay Rays have been either ahead of them or right on their heels. And in order for the Bombers to stay in the lead (and help separate themselves from the pack now without their leading slugger), they’re going to need even more of a full team effort.

That effort stems across the organization, from the hitters in the lineup, to those in the rotation, and those in the bullpen. One of the members at the back of the Yankees rotation who has continued to show just how valuable he can be is Will Warren, the young right-hander who is hoping to solidify himself not just as an above-average major league starter, but someone who can go above and beyond in the biggest moments for a Yankees team looking for another World Series title.

William Harper Warren
Born: June 16, 1999 (Brandon, MS)
Yankees Tenure: 2024-present

Will Warren was born in the southern region of the United States in Brandon, Mississippi. He grew up on the diamond before attending Jackson Preparatory School in Flowood, Mississippi from 2013 to 2017. He wasn’t the tallest, and he certainly wasn’t the biggest player on the field, but he racked up excellent numbers on the mound in high school, finishing his senior season with a 1.59 ERA and 67 strikeouts in 52.2 innings pitched in his 10 appearances.

Warren attended Southeastern Louisiana University in Hammond, Louisiana from 2018 to 2021. His freshman year he was utilized exclusively in the bullpen, appearing in 18 games and finishing with a 3.04 ERA. However, in his sophomore year he transitioned into a starter role; it was a slow start for the right-hander, though. In 14 games started and 16 games played, he finished with a 6.72 ERA in 67.0 innings pitched. He only allowed four home runs through the season, but he also allowed 74 hits and 50 earned runs. His coaching staff didn’t give up on his stuff, though. In his junior season, which was shortened due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Warren only pitched five games (which he finished with a 1.90 ERA in 23.2 innings pitched). He pitched two games as a starter and three out of the bullpen, but, just as it was in MLB, it was an odd season for every level of every sport.

His make-or-break senior season was where Warren finally seemed to grip the reins a bit more than he had in previous years. He pitched in 14 games and started all of them. He finished with an ERA of 2.57 across 91.0 innings (an average of 6.2 innings per game). He also pitched two complete games that year and finished with 95 strikeouts.

Following his four seasons at Southeastern Louisiana, he was drafted by the Yankees in the eighth round of the 2021 MLB Amateur Draft. He made his professional debut in 2022 with the Hudson Valley Renegades of the High-A South Atlantic League, where he pitched eight total games before a call up to Double-A with the Somerset Patriots. He had a 3.60 ERA and 42 strikeouts in 35.0 innings pitched with the Renegades and then didn’t return to High-A ball. He stayed in Double-A for the rest of the season and pitched 18 games, all as a starter, and he acclimated as well as many would expect for a 23-year-old fresh to pro ball. He finished the season with a 4.06 ERA in 94.0 innings pitched with 83 strikeouts. And even though he allowed a decent amount of hits, he avoided the long ball and was able to strike batters out when he needed to.

Warren returned to Somerset at the beginning of the 2023 season, but the same story unfolded for him between Double and Triple-A as it had for High-A and Double-A the year before. He pitched in only six games with the Patriots before being called up again — the Yankees thought he should be with Scranton following a dominant 2.45 ERA start. He stayed in Triple-A for the rest of the year and pitched 99.2 innings, crossing the 100 strikeout mark for a single team for the first time in his career with 110. The first half of his season was a lot more rocky than the second half, given that he was still adjusting to the Automated Balls-Strikes system that Triple-A had just adopted at that point. But when he found his stride, there was a clear look at the potential he could provide to a major league rotation. He finished the year not just having allowed only two runs in 28.2 innings in September, but he also won the International League Pitcher of the Month award thanks to that performance. He ended with a 7-4 record with the Railriders, and would earn himself a shot with the big league team in the 2024 season.

However, the next year wasn’t as glamorous for Warren as he may have wanted it to be. He was invited to spring training as a non-roster player, but was eventually sent backto Triple-A and struggled. He pitched 23 games and crossed the 100.0 innings pitched plateau for the first time in his professional career. However, a 5.91 ERA was not the number in the box score anyone was expecting as one of the Yankees farm system’s top pitchers. Nonetheless, he was given the chance to make his major league debut after Gerrit Cole was scratched from his July 30th start due to general body fatigue. At age 25, Warren, donning the number 98, ran out to the mound for his first major league start. And it wasn’t the best start of all time, but there were certainly flashes as he posted 5.1 innings pitched with four hits, six strikeouts, two walks, and four earned runs against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Remaining with the team for the rest of the 2024 season, Warren received five more apperances on a major league mound (four of which were starts), but he posted a 10.51 ERA, a result of problems that had plagued him prior to the big leagues: giving up lots of contact and a lot of baserunners.

Warren was on the Opening Day roster for the Yankees in 2025 due to injuries to both Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil, and he was thrown into the fire. He won his first major league game against the San Francisco Giants at Yankee Stadium on April 12th, and went on to pitch 162.1 innings that season over 33 games, 33.1 more innings pitched than ever in his career, and about 53 more innings pitched at a single level in his career. A highlight of his year was posting his career-high in strikeouts against the Los Angeles Angels in six innings pitched a day following his 26th birthday.

Warren finished the season with a 4.44 ERA, a 92 ERA+, and questions about his future with the Yankees arose considering the return of Gil and, eventually, Cole, put his position in the rotation in jeopardy. The 2026 season (particularly his start to the year) was going to be crucial. But, Cole wasn’t set to return until a bit into the season, and Carlos Rodón, who had elbow surgery in October, wasn’t going to be ready for Opening Day either, giving Warren the perfect chance to seize his moment.

And he did. Warren, alongside new acquisition Ryan Weathers at the back of the rotation, was fantastic through the early parts of the season and helped build confidence in a fanbase that may have been shaky on him. He finished with a 2.59 ERA and 3-0 record in six games through March and April, and, even though things have begun to come back down to Earth following a 3.82 ERA in May (despite a 4-1 record over that time as well), he still managed plenty of excellent outings, including another 11 strikeout performance at Yankee Stadium against the Kansas City Royals, tying his career-high.

June has been less favorable to Warren than Yankees fans may want to see, but he has the stuff to remain a solid, durable arm at the back of the Bombers rotation. We’ll be celebrating his birthday following an outing where he had to labor against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday, but also with the start of a new series, as the Yankees welcome the Chicago White Sox. Happy birthday Will, and best of luck the rest of this season!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

At the trade deadline coming up, the Phillies are going to make a move. That is all but a guarantee at this point being as how, under Dave Dombrowski, they have made a move at each deadline under his control. This year, there are some pretty striking needs the team has that are probably going to be upgraded from the outside as opposed to bringing someone up from the minor leagues.

What the priority order is for those positions can be debated rather thoroughly. The offense has been quite uneven on the season, meaning a bat, preferably a right handed one, should top the wishlist of the team, but an argument can be made for each of these other two. There is no order done here that shows which position is most in need of an upgrade. It’s just some hopes and dreams at three spots on the roster.

Left handed reliever

Dream target: Aroldis Chapman

Jose Alvarado has been shaky, at best. Tanner Banks has been bitten by the BABIP gods far too often and looks simply unreliable. Kyle Backhus was looking decent prior to his injury, but it’s still Kyle Backhus. The team needs a reliable, lockdown left handed reliever and the one best suited to their needs is Chapman. While he’s no longer the dominant force he was before, he’s still one of the premier left handed relievers in the game. His 34.6% strikeout rate is ninth among all relievers with at least 20 innings pitched, his whiff rate of 32.7% still in the top percentiles.

Break it down further, his sinker, among those that have thrown the pitch at least 100 times, has the second best whiff rate in the game, his slider, among those that have thrown it at least 50 times, 14th best in the game at generating swings and misses. He still possesses swing and miss stuff, something that is particularly useful during the postseason. In a still more granular level, Chapman has seen left handed batters 22 times this year and has allowed a .167 slugging percentage. He’s pretty much exactly what the team needs from a left handed pitcher.

The asking price on his services is likely to be high. The Red Sox, if they decide to sell, will have an asset in Chapman that they will want to cash in on. Relievers are always in high demand, particularly those who have Chapman’s skillset. In a bidding war, the team may not have the pieces needed to entice the Red Sox in a trade.

Realistic targets: Jojo Romero, Stephen Okert, Andrew Nardi, Erik Miller

All four pitchers listed here are something of the same: they’re playing on teams that are probably going to sell at the deadline and they’re kind of iffy against left handed hitting. The only one to have a slight quibble with is Romero, who is pitching for the Cardinals, a team in surprising contention in the National League, but they have made no bones about their desire to continue rebuilding, so we’ll throw him in here.

Usually when acquiring a left handed pitcher, one looks to see how well he fares against same sided hitting. These four are surprisingly not that great.

These aren’t numbers that blow anyone off the page when considering how well they’d do at their primary job, which would be to get left handed hitters out. The biggest tests in the postseason would come from the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Christian Yelich, et al., so seeing that they haven’t been that good can be a bit disconcerting. These same numbers against right handed hitters are more or less the same, giving a “what you see is what you get” feel.

Yet as with anything, their market they can shop in will be limited thanks to their lack of impact talent they can offer back in a trade. How much team control they have might work in the Phillies favor for a few. Romero is a free agent after this season, Okert has one year of team control left, Nardi two years of control, Miller three. You can basically see how the price would change for each pitcher as their control goes up.

Starting pitcher

Dream target: Tarik Skubal

I mean, this is everyone’s top target. Skubal is the best trade piece on the market no matter the position. The Tigers have more or less faded from the playoff picture, even if Skubal helps them win every fifth day. Their future is best served by moving him and he will command a high asking price.

But consider the fit.

A rotation of Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Tarik Skubal and Jesus Luzardo is instantly, without a doubt, the best rotation in the game. You could pick the Phanatic to pitch as the fifth starter and it would still be the best. Any playoff game that would be started by that quartet, they should be the favorite. They would have to score runs for them, something this offense feels allergic to, but they’d also allow few, if any, runs themselves.

It truly would be the best possible trade they could make.

What would have to go in return? Andrew Painter? Sure, send him on. Painter plus Aidan Miller? Hey, does David Wright 2.0 need help packing? If there is a package that the Phillies could create to make a move for Skubal, they should be entertaining it.

Realistic targets: Michael Lorenzen

It’s not the most desirable outcome for the team as simply keeping the status quo is probably more desirable than trading for someone like Lorenzen, but he is the aisle the team would probably be shopping in considering the quality of their prospects to trade away. Lorenzen had this insane desire to actually want to pitch in Colorado this year and as his numbers suggest, he’s kind of gotten what he’s asked for. He’d be someone to come in and give the team innings, something that maybe they could use if they decided to head to a six-man rotation in August, but he’s not someone they’d pitch in the playoffs at all. That’s something of a benchmark for making trades for a team like the Phillies.

Right handed starting outfielder

Dream target: Byron Buxton

Alright, here me out.

Buxton has for years been the über-talented, oft injured center fielder for the Twins, one that always seemed to put up great numbers in half the time. He is putting together yet another fantastic season, hitting .276/.335/.606 with 23 home runs at the plate, his defense in center field once again sublime and his contract more than palatable to absorb. For a team that is starved for any kind of production from the right side, Buxton would be the perfect salve for what ails them.

The issues?

Price tag and desire.

Buxton has already once refused to be traded from his humble abode in Minnesota. Understandable. Being traded from the organization that drafted, developed, played and ultimately extended you has to be something that would create massive upheaval in one’s life. Maybe Buxton was simply so comfortable with his surroundings last year, he didn’t wish to move. There haven’t been any more whispers of his waiving that no-trade clause he has in his contract, but one can never know exactly what would happen.

The other issue would be the price tag. Trading Buxton would be franchise altering for the Twins. They’d be moving someone that has grown with them into a star, someone who is quite productive and someone who has a contract that isn’t particularly burdensome. It would take a handsome price to pay for the Phillies to be able to pry him loose, likely detonating the top half of their prospect lists to facilitate a move.

Is that worth it?

Realistic targets: Jo Adell? Seiya Suzuki?

I suppose we have to identify these two as the ones the team should be pursuing the most as they have been named already as the targets the Phillies have already been asking about. Both are flawed, but possess something the Phillies have little of: right handed power.

Adell hit 37 home runs last year, yet managed an OPS below .800. That’s difficult to do. He has followed that up with a slugging percentage closer to .375 than .450, something of a problem. To say he struggles on defense would be an undersell, those home run robberies notwithstanding. He would fill that particular need on the Phillies, but would he do it well?

Suzuki is a pending free agent on a team that is looking to add for a postseason run, not really give players away. The Cubs are looking for starting pitching, something the Phillies are also looking to add a dash of themselves. He’s been good with his bad, made a surprisingly good recovery on defense in right field and would be playing regularly in an outfield that is currently without his type of profile.

Yet the Cubs are playing better and are going to need all the offensive help they can get for their own playoff push. Is there really even a match to be made here?