It is June 10th and the Washington Nationals are tied for the third Wild Card spot in a competitive National League. Before the season, the thought of that would sound insane, but here we are. I dove into the stats to find some numbers that explain the rise of the Nats, and found four that stood out.

Scoring Early and Often:

At this point even casual baseball fans know the Nationals have scored the most runs in baseball. It is one of those stats that seems to get mentioned on every telecast or MLB Network segment. Given how shocking the stat is, I do not blame the baseball media for beating it into fans’ heads. However, the Nats 362 total runs is not the stat I am highlighting here. 

The first stat of the profile is 53. That is how many first inning runs the Nationals have scored after Luis Garcia Jr’s two run shot last night. This Nats team is setting the tone early and laying down the gauntlet for teams.

With the Nats shaky pitching staff, getting out to early leads is vital. The early action prevents the offense from pressing and chasing the game. A big reason why the lineup is so successful early in games is the construction. James Wood is an on base machine at the top of the lineup. He has an OBP over .400 on the season. Wood also allows his dugout to see plenty of pitches to start the ball game and is always a threat to make it 1-0 very early.

After Wood, the Nats have a fun mix of aggression and patience with Luis Garcia Jr. and Curtis Mead. Then Blake Butera puts his chief run producer CJ Abrams in the cleanup spot where he has been driving in runs for fun. This lineup is just incredibly dangerous, and they get out of the gates hot.

The Advanced Numbers Back the Nats:

It is easy to look at the runs scored number when looking at this offense. However, the lingering question all season has been whether this offense is sustainable. When you look at the advanced data, it will tell you that this Nats offense should remain a strong unit going forward.

The next number I am going to highlight is .331. That is the Nationals xwOBA, which is Baseball Savant’s stat which measures a combination of quality of contact, strikeouts and walks. This link has a deeper description of what the stat measures. Basically, it is trying to measure the hitters true skill level based on things they can control.

The Nats .331 xwOBA is the fourth best in baseball, only behind the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves. What this is telling me is that the Nats offense is not doing anything unsustainable at the moment. Of course, players on the team could slow down, but right now, it is not like the Nats are getting lucky. In fact, their wOBA of .326 is lower than their xwOBA mark, so if anything they are getting unlucky.

A big driver of the Nats xwOBA dominance is James Wood. Among qualified hitters, Wood’s .429 xwOBA is second in baseball behind Yordan Alvarez. Wood’s savant page is bleeding red from all the things he is elite at. He hits the ball harder than anyone, he is barreling everything and his bat speed is also elite. There is a reason James Wood is one of the best hitters in the sport.

While I still doubt the Nats will finish the season with the most runs in baseball, this offense is legit. I would not be that surprised anymore if they finish as a top 5 scoring offense in the sport. That would have been an insane thing to say at the beginning of the season. You have to credit these young hitters for blossoming and Matt Borgschulte for getting the best out of these guys.

The Bullpen is not Great But it is Better:

Last season, the Nationals bullpen was an absolute joke. They had the worst bullpen ERA in the sport with a 5.59 mark. At best, there were a couple guys at any given moment that were not total disasters. To start this season, it seemed like it would be more of the same. There were a number of bullpen implosions in the beginning of April that had fans on edge.

Paul Toboni did not build a bullpen that was filled with big names. Instead, he assembled an island of misfit toys. He made several waiver claims and moved starters into the bullpen. The hope was that some of these guys would stick, and the ones that did not would just be replaced.

The Nationals bullpen is not good by any means, but it is no longer a disaster. As a unit, they have a 4.58 ERA, which is just over a run lower than last year. Instead of being the worst bullpen in baseball, they are now the 8th worst.

For me, Gus Varland is the poster boy of this new bullpen. He was a waiver claim who has bounced around a lot in his career. Heck, he is not even the best reliever in his family, that title would go to his brother Louis who is dominating with the Blue Jays.

Gus has not been amazing by any means, with an ERA of 4.01 and a WHIP of 1.58. However, Varland has been far from a disaster and has come up with some clutch saves. His performance the other night was a good microcosm of his season. Varland came in to protect a one run lead, and while he allowed a couple baserunners, he got the job done. A commenter on here said they did not know if Varland was good but knew he had the dog in him. That is a perfect way to describe him.

Richard Lovelady is another example of a bullpen arm with questionable skill but unquestioned heart. Like Varland, he allows plenty of base runners, but usually finds a way out of jams. The Nats also have guys like Orlando Ribalta and Brad Lord that usually get out of innings with less drama. Sure, the bullpen could use further improvement, but it is no longer a massive liability.

Chicks Dig the Long Ball:

In Darnell Coles’ tenure as hitting coach, the Nats ranked 28th, 29th, 29th and 24th in home runs. This was not a team that hit for power, and the offensive philosophy was not one that prioritized the long ball. Instead, the Nats wanted to put the ball in play, and single teams to death.

This season, the Nats have 87 home runs, which is tied for 5th in baseball. That 87 number is the fourth and final key stat we will explore. Sure, James Wood and CJ Abrams’ continued development is a big part of this. The pair have 17 and 14 homers respectively. 

However, those two are not the biggest reason why the Nats home run totals have shot up. The biggest factor is the power from the supporting cast. Curtis Mead never hit more than 3 homers in a season before this year, and he already has 9. Daylen Lile and Luis Garcia Jr. have 8 homers each.

The biggest surprise comes from the Nats center fielder Jacob Young, who also has 8 bombs. Entering this season, we thought we knew who Jacob Young was. His glove has always been elite, but he was not a guy who gave you any power. Young had been an everyday player the past two seasons, and hit a combined 5 home runs in that time. Now, he already has 8, and seems poised to slug at least 15 bombs.

The Young transformation is the best example of the Nats changing their offensive approach. As Dan Kolko and Kevin Frandsen have said a couple times, Young was told to hit the ball on the ground and use his speed to get hits. However, that was not working.

This offseason, Young went to Driveline to fix his swing. Instead of swinging down on the ball, Young now has a mostly level swing with a slight uppercut. That has led to him trimming his ground ball rate and pulling the ball in the air more. Young is a pretty strong guy, so if he hits the ball at the right angle, he can leave the yard. That is exactly what he has been doing this year.

Players like Young and Mead are a big reason why the Nats are top 5 in homers. They are also a big part of why the Nats currently sit in a Wild Card spot. This team has been an absolute joy to watch, and these numbers explain the Nationals dramatic turnaround.

Into the wee hours of the morning went the Cincinnati Reds and San Diego Padres after their 9:40 PM ET start time on Tuesday evening in southern California, the second game of their three-game series heading to extras after neither team could quite figure out Chase Burns or Lucas Giolito, respectively.

Tied at 2-2, the two clubs reached bonus baseball just before 1 AM ET, with Eugenio Suarez socking an RBI double to score the Manfred Man and give the Reds a 3-2 lead heading into the Bottom of the 10th. Not to be outdone, Samad Taylor responded in the back half of the frame with an RBI single to score a fellow Padres and level the score at 3-3, at which point the game headed into the 11th inning.

It was then that Sal Stewart took matters into his own hands.

Cincinnati’s star rookie sat back on a breaking pitch from San Diego lefty Yuki Matsui and launched it over the wall in the deepest part of Petco Park, a 2-run homer that gave the Reds a 5-3 lead that they would not relinquish.

Zach “Big Sugar” Maxwell came on to nail down the first save of his career right after, a nearly perfect 9-pitch Bottom of the 11th that gave Cincinnati a much needed win to bust up their latest stretch of futility.

A win is a win, and the Reds will take them any way they can these days. Still, it was the kind of game where it felt like Cincinnati should have been ahead by several runs the entire way. Burns, to his credit, was once again pretty electric, allowing just 2 ER in 5.1 IP with 7 K against just 2 BB. The Reds, though, coaxed 8 walks, poked 8 hits, and swiped a season-best 7 bases on the night, yet still found themselves needing Stewart’s 2-run blast late in the game after leaving runners stranded just about everywhere imaginable throughout the course of the night.

In the end, though, it was Mustang Sally who rose to the occasion and claimed the night for the Reds. Maybe, just maybe, it ends up the kind of swing that changes the fortunes of this sputtering club.

Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (27-37) lost 5-4 (BOX SCORE)

Javier made a rehab start for Sugar Land last night and was really good tossing 3 perfect innings with 3 strikeouts. The offense got on the board in the first on a Ferreras walk. Javier was relieved by Alexander who allowed 5 runs over 4 innings. Sugar Land got 2 runs back in the 6th on RBI singles from Ferreras and Perez. In the 9th, they got a run on a Winkler RBI double but the comeback fell short as Sugar Land fell 5-4.

Note: Ferreras is hitting .500 in Triple-A.

• Yainer Diaz, C: 1-for-3, R
• Zach Dezenzo, RF: 1-for-3, R, BB
• Zach Cole, CF: 1-for-3, R
• Pascanel Ferreras, SS: 1-for-3, 2 RBI, BB
• Carlos Perez, DH: 2-for-4, RBI
• Jack Winkler, 2B: 1-for-4, 2B, RBI

• Cristian Javier, RHP: 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Jason Alexander, RHP: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Tom Cosgrove, LHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• J.P. France, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (26-32) won 8-7 (BOX SCORE)

Nezuh started for the Hooks and allowed 4 runs over 4 innings of work. The Hooks got on the board in the 3rd inning on a Spence Rbi groundout. They got another run in the 5th on an Encarnacion RBI single. Santos allowed 3 runs in relief as the Hooks found themselves down 7-2. They picked up 2 runs in the 6th on a Holy RBI single and Sullivan RBI triple. In the 7th, the offense scored 3 runs to tie it on a Brutcher RBI double, Guillemette RBI double and Whitaker RBI double. In the 8th, Austin connected on a solo home run to give the Hooks the lead. McLoughlin and Chirinos closed it out with scoreless outings as the Hooks won 8-7.

Note: Austin has a .902 OPS this season.

• Max Holy, SS: 1-for-3, 2 R, RBI, 2 BB, SB
• Joseph Sullivan, DH: 3-for-4, 2B, 3B, RBI, BB
• Trevor Austin, 3B: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Lucas Spence, CF: 3-for-5, R, 2B, RBI
• Yamal Encarnacion, RF: 2-for-5, R, RBI, 2 SB
• Drew Brutcher, 1B: 2-for-4, R, 2B, RBI, BB
• Garret Guillemette, C: 2-for-3, R, 2B, RBI, BB
• Tyler Whitaker, LF: 2-for-5, 2B, RBI

• Jackson Nezuh, RHP: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
• Alex Santos, RHP: 0.2 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 1 K
• Trey McLoughlin, RHP: 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (WIN)
• Amilcar Chirinos, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (SAVE)

A+: Asheville Tourists (16-41) won 13-3 (BOX SCORE)

Asheville got on the board in the first inning on a Thomas solo home run. They got 2 more runs in the 2nd inning on a Nunez 2 run home run. Rodriguez started for Asheville and pitched well allowing 2 runs over 6 innings while striking out 4. The offense played add on scoring 4 runs in the 4th on a Moss RBI single, Garcia 2 run double and Powell RBI double. The offense picked up 2 more in the 5th on a groundout and Moss sac fly. The offense would add 4 more runs in the 6th inning on a Powell 2 run single, Ochoa RBI double and Moss sac fly.

Note: Thomas has a .980 OPS this season.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 2-for-5, 2 R, HR, RBI, BB, SB
• Caden Powell, DH: 2-for-5, R, 2B, 3 RBI, BB
• Nehomar Ochoa, RF: 2-for-5, R, 2B, RBI, 2 SB
• Kyle Walker, 2B: 0-for-1, 3 R, 4 BB, 2 SB
• Alejandro Nunez, 3B: 1-for-3, 2 R, HR, 3 RBI, 2 BB
• Jack Moss, 1B: 2-for-3, R, 3 RBI
• John Garcia, C: 1-for-5, R, 2B, 2 RBI

• Luis Rodriguez, RHP: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (WIN)
• Anthony Cruz, RHP: 3.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 0 K (SAVE)

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (26-32) won 7-6 (BOX SCORE)

The Woodpeckers got on the board in the first inning scoring 2 runs on an error. They got 4 runs in the 2nd inning on a Flores solo home run, Lytle RBI double, a run on an error and a run on a balk. Beck got the start and was solid allowing 2 runs over 5.1 innings with 3 strikeouts. The offense got one more in the 4th inning on a Huezo RBI single. Varela allowed 3 runs in relief and didn’t retire a batter. Fraide came on after him and pitched well closing the game out with 6 strikeouts over 3.2 innings allowing just 1 run.

Note: Huezo has a .885 OPS this season.

• Anthony Huezo, RF: 3-for-4, R, 2 2B, RBI, BB, SB
• Kevin Alvarez, CF: 0-for-4, R, BB, 2 SB
• Waner Luciano, DH: 0-for-3, R, BB, SB
• Arturo Flores, C: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• German Ramirez, SS: 2-for-3, R, BB, 2 SB
• Mason Lytle, LF: 2-for-2, R, 2 2B, RBI, SB

• Jagger Beck, RHP: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K (WIN)
• Jose Varela, RHP: 0.0 IP, 0 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 0 K
• Juan Fraide, RHP: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K (SAVE)

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Colton Gordon – 7:05 CT

CC: Bryce Mayer – 6:30 CT

AV: TBD – 10:05 CT

FV: TBD – 5:35 CT

Also be sure to follow on X, @AstrosFuture, follow me on Instagram, @AstrosFuture and like my Facebook page, facebook.com/AstrosFuture.

Ross Fenstermaker, in his then role as a scout, described Chad Comer as “not a legitimate prospect” but thought he had a future as a coach. That turned out to be a spot-on assessment.

Cole Winn is back from the IL after receiving a Botox injection for thoracic outlet syndrome and is hoping to return to his 2025 form.

Brandon Nimmo has seen his numbers plummet over the last 30 days, though the data suggests that’s largely been a result of bad luck.

Nathan Eovaldi gave up some hard hit balls in the sixth and the offense failed to capitalize on opportunities as the Rangers failed to get back to .500 for the sixth time this season.

The last time the Rangers were at .500 was May 1, when they were 16-16.

On Ezequiel Duran giving himself the nickname The Solution, Skip Schumaker says “sometimes you need a delusional type of player.”

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Brady Singer has been one of the league's worst starting pitchers this season.

With a clear advantage on the bump, my Reds vs. Padres predictions back the home team to take the series Wednesday afternoon.

Let's take a closer look at my MLB picks for June 10.

Who will win Reds vs Padres today: Padres moneyline (-160)

Cincinnati Reds starter Brady Singer is in miserable form, posting a remarkably high 1.80 WHIP and 4.86 HR/9 over the last month.

Lefties Jackson Merrill and Gavin Sheets are prime candidates to shine, and a matchup with Singer should boost the San Diego Padres offense as a whole.

It’ll be tougher for the Reds against Michael King. The Reds rank 23rd in wOBA and 25th in ISO when facing righties on the road, and King has posted a 1.14 WHIP while allowing 0.94 HR/9 at home.

Back the Padres to -170.

COVERS INTEL:Brady Singer ranks in the first percentile in Pitching Run Value.

Reds vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 8 (-115)

Singer has conceded at least three earned runs in five of his last six starts. He is struggling, and there’s no reason to expect the bullpen to pick him up.

The Reds ‘pen ranks 27th in xFIP over the last 60 days and isn’t overflowing with fresh arms after using six on Tuesday night.

While King has a solid matchup, he sits in the 41st percentile in xERA. He is not untouchable and the bullpen behind him is also taxed.

Four of their relievers — including Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon — pitched in consecutive days and will be unavailable.

Bet to -125.

Reds vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Reds +140 | Padres -160
• Run line: Reds +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-115) | Under 8 (-105)

Reds vs Padres trend

Cincinnati has hit the Over in 15 of the last 23 games (+6.25 units, 24% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Padres.

How to watch Reds vs Padres and game info

Reds vs Padres latest injuries

Reds vs Padres weather

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Worcester: W, 6-5 (F/10) (BOX SCORE)

For the first part of this game in Rochester (Nationals AAA), the WooSox suffered from a common problem the Red Sox deal with on almost a daily basis; great starting pitching, no runs. Jack Anderson was nearly lights out through the sixth, but the WooSox didn’t provide any run support until the seventh inning. By that point Tyler Samaniego had allowed a two-run shot and the WooSox had another hole to dig themselves out of. But, unlike the Major League squad, the offense could not have come at a more clutch time. First baseman Matt Lloyd drilled the game-tying shot in the ninth to drive in three runs and send this game to extras; Braiden Ward, Matt Thaiss and Kristian Campbell would all do their parts to get two insurance runs, in which Noah Song slammed the door in the bottom of the tenth despite walking two.

Portland: L, 5-7 (BOX SCORE)

Is Franklin Arias or Brooks Brannon doing better as a hitting prospect? Who’s to say, it seemingly varies on the night. Though, I rather enjoy it when they’re both hitting well. They each captured three knocks including a double on the night off the Fightin’ Phils in Lehigh Valley. Anthony Eyanson ran into some walks trouble in the third cutting his night very short, but Lehigh Valley wouldn’t break through until Patrick Halligan’s next inning, and the deficit was too much to cut despite the usual suspects and Johanfran Garcia showing up as well as Caden Rose’s first Double-A home run in the ninth.

Greenville: W, 8-7 (BOX SCORE)

By some miracle, Greenville pulled out this game against Winston-Salem (White Sox High-A). A quick glance at Devin Futrell’s line leads to some celebration that he struck out six and didn’t walk anyone but then realization sets in that he allowed two home runs for five runs on eight hits. Tyler Uberstine also wasn’t exactly pristine in his rehab start, allowing four hits of his own. And yet Calvin Bickerstaff righted the ship, because, well, Isaiah Jackson and Ronny Hernandez already helped out enough in the second inning with twin home runs. Not to mention, six Drive batters had multiple total bases. It shouldn’t have had to come to some good late relief pitching. But a win is a win.

Salem: L, 6-7 (BOX SCORE)

Jason Gilman took a rare shelling out of the gate, and the rest of the staff couldn’t really recover from it, though just one Woodpecker (Astros A) run was allowed after the second inning. Adonys Guzman also had a rough night behind the bump, committing three throwing errors. This isn’t to say the RidgeYaks’ offense was absent, just uninspired: the team lacked an extra-base hit on the night, though let’s debunk any claims that the team wasm’t opportunistic, either: three of their five RBI hits came with two outs. Sometimes, that’s juts baseball.

Have a wonderous Wednesday. As in, I wonder how the Red Sox are going to mess up today’s game.

Kyle Harrison got rocked Monday night in Las Vegas in a venue where the dimensions resemble your local Little League park, but the stats count nonetheless. Traded by the Red Sox to the Brewers for Caleb Durbin this offseason, the terrible outing — 8 ER in 2.1 IP — boosted his ERA by more than a full point, from 1.57 to 2.72. For a moment at least, it’s a milestone with respect to the Sox, who finally have a starter with a lower ERA than their former prospect: Peyton Tolle, whose 2.70 mark cleans the clock with Kyle’s. Regression, ramshackle stadium, randomness — whatever the reason, Harrison might be coming back to Earth.

Whatever kind of story it is, it is decidedly otherwise not about the Red Sox. It’s fair to judge trades by the outcomes, especially when it comes to trading prospects, but it’s the longer-term view we’re after. That’s when it’s about us, insofar as it ever is. Chris Sale winning the Cy Young? Sure, but even then, am I gonna say a bad word about the guy? No. But a single bad start does not a Boston story make. Or at least not a good one, because apparently it does make for a story, several times over. MassLive did it. So did NESN, which got picked up by (an automated, but widely viewed) MSN. And folks, I just don’t know what we’re doing here anymore. I sure don’t. It’s tautological. If this is the story, this isn’t the story. The story is the Red Sox sucking. Do not wish bad on Kyle Harrison, do not celebrate his down moments and for dog’s sakes, don’t look away from the disaster before us!

There is something in my DNA that makes me prefer certain types of players more than others, which I am sure is true for all of you as well. What my inclinations push me toward are not a single loud skill, but rather the players who are kind of good at everything. I think it is underappreciated to be pretty solid with no major weaknesses because black ink was always a dominant theme of conversation. Fewer fans care about guys who are simply above average in many categories, but don’t excel in any one area. Offensively, Alex Gordon was one of these guys and a favorite of mine. Now, Daniel Lynch IV may have morphed into that style of pitcher. He has no particular standout skill but he has added quality to everything he is doing. And, more importantly, it is working.

Daniel Lynch IV was a heralded prospect at one point, even making some top 100 lists. He is tall and left-handed, though lacking a bit in velocity for modern baseball. His fastballs, especially the four-seamer, have always graded out pretty poorly both from a scouting perspective and from a run value perspective, leading to diminished usage. When he first made the big leagues, the 4-seamer made up over 40% of his pitches, but that has dropped and dropped until this year it is only making up 17.4% of his pitches.

He has adjusted by using the sinker a lot more, although still only about a quarter of the time. His changeup and slider make up nearly half of pitches now with the knuckle curve showing up every now and again to keep batters off balance. That pitch mix evolution has over time taking some pressure off of the four-seam fastball to improve its performance while become more a sinker, slider, change profile. That is not enough to explain how he has significantly i,proved, however.

The change in pitch mix may have helped Lynch become a viable middle-reliever, but it is the changes to the quality of his pitches have taken him to a higher level this year. Last year, pitch modeling metrics graded out his pitches at or below-average with only two minor exceptions – his change up and sinker. PitchingBot had his changeup as a 53 and Stuff+ put the sinker as a 103, both just barely above league-average stuff for those offerings.

This year, the modeling metrics are improved almost across the board. None of his pitches are elite but now PitchingBot has his four-seamer, sinker, and change at 54, 62, and 53 respectively along with a one-point improvement to his slider and knuckle curve. Similarly, Stuff+ now has four pitches above-average, with his sinker over a full standard deviation above-average with an above-average grade for his slider as well. Only the knuckle curve is still not favored sitting below the average 100. Both systems now have his composite stuff overall as above-average, which he has never done before. Beyond stuff, they think his command is around or slightly better than average now too and Stuff+ has his Pitching+ as above-average. Almost everything about what Daniel is doing this season is better than at any other point in his career and he is kind of a bit better than average at most things now. If you are better than the typical pitcher on stuff and command and process, it turns out good things happen.

None of this seems to be velocity-related. Some of it seems to be spin-related. His RPM values for the fastball, sinker, and slider are all higher than in any other season. The sinker, which has the biggest stuff value change, is now averaging 2,215 rpm is the largest difference more than 100 rpm above last year’s spin rate. This does not seem to change the movement a lot, but it might be shifting the shape of the pitch, later break or something along those lines. You can see below that the pitch movements, 2025 on left and 2026 on right, are not all that different. Sorry that the color-coding changes from one year to the next, Fangraphs is not perfect, but it does take a little time to read since the sinker is orange in 2025 and black in 2026 for instance.

There might be some subtle differences there and the clusters might be tighter, but that could just be a sample size effect. Whatever it is, the statistics models are picking up on the change, and the results can be seen on the field. Lynch has a strikeout rate of 9.91 per-nine innings this year, when his previous best mark was 8.34 back in 2022. He also has his lowest walk rate ever. Higher strikeout rates and lower walk rates are generally a good recipe. His average against and WHIP have also come way down, though a bit of this is BABIP luck, which is sitting at .239. I don’t think the 1.71 ERA is his true talent level, but his xERA, FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA are 2.67, 2.54, 3.63, and 3.02 respectively, so the improvement seems to be real. His home run rate is quite low, leading to his xFIP being quite a bit higher. Regardless, those are all much lower than any other season of his career as well.

His exit velocities, barrel rates, and hard-hit rates are all lower too. This does not look like a fluke. His whiff rate on the slider is the other exceptional change statistically. That pitch has gone from a 13.3% swing-and-miss rate to 23.4%, an 80% increase in rate. The slider whiff rate is up even more, nominally at least, going from 29.9% to 48.1%. So far, the knuckle curve is also way up, but since he has only thrown that pitch 32 times I would like to see more before I declare that worth paying attention to. He uses all of his pitches against right-handed batters and then against lefties 93% of his offerings are sinker or slider. This is similar but more extreme than his past mix too.

The Royals bullpen has many problems which has depleted it to the point where Alex Lange is closing games. Carlos Estévez and Nick Mears are hurt. Matt Strahm has missed time too and has not been as reliable as you would like. Lucas Erceg has struggled mightily. Basically, the entire back-end of the pen has not done well.

Luckily, there has been at least one arm step up and into that role to help cover some of the problems, Daniel Lynch IV. He still needs to remain where he is, I know some will want him to close games, but he should not. The splits are real and he needs to be aimed at lefties most of the time. Still, I am very impressed with the steps he has taken, and it is nice to have at least one guy we can depend on while the rest of it hopefully gets sorted out.