Former NFL player Kevin Johnson killed at homeless encampment, medical examiner says

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Former Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineman Kevin Johnson died from “blunt head trauma and stab wounds” at a homeless encampment, according to the medical examiner.

The Los Angeles County Medical Examiner said Johnson, 55, was pronounced dead Wednesday morning after being found unconscious. His death was ruled a homicide and is being investigated.

A fourth-round draft pick by New England in 1993, Johnson spent time with the Patriots, Minnesota and Oakland before landing with the Eagles. He had 43 tackles, including seven sacks, and returned a fumble for a touchdown in two years with Philadelphia. He played 15 games for the Raiders in 1997.

Johnson later played in the Arena Football League for Orlando and Los Angeles. The L.A. native played collegiately at Texas Southern.

Investigators believe Johnson had been living at the encampment at the time of his death. Friends said Johnson had health issues later in life that contributed to his situation.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl

Khal Stephen is our No. 8 Guardians prospect. Who should be No. 9?

The people have spoken and newcomer pitching prospect Khal Stephen is our No. 8 Cleveland Guardians prospect. Stephen won convincingly, earning 40% of the vote, beating out Juan Brito (24.3%), Jaison Chourio (12.9%) and Jace LaViolette (11.4%). He is making his CTC prospect list debut.

Stephen was a second round pick (No. 59 overall) by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Mississippi State.

He didn’t pitch the year he was drafted, but Toronto debuted him at full-season Single-A last year, where he shredded opposing hitters. Over the course of eight games (seven starts), Stephen posted a 2.06 ERA with a ridiculous 1.97 FIP over 39.1 innings while striking out a whopping 31.4% of hitters while walking just 4.6% of them.

This earned Stephen a promotion to High-A, where Stephen continued to dominate. He dropped his ERA to a miniscule 1.49 while retaining an elite 2.70 FIP and an absolutely redonkulous 0.85 WHIP over nine starts spanning 48.1 innings. Despite the quick promotion, Stephen was named the Northwest League Pitcher of the Month for June

Stephen was promoted to Double-A, making one start and immediately being placed on the injured list with a shoulder impingement following his first start there. One week later, he was traded to Cleveland in a one-for-one deal for former Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber. Stephen was activated three weeks later and made four starts with Double-A Akron. Three of the starts were spectacular, allowing one run in 4.0 innings twice and tossing 3.0 scoreless innings once. Unfortunately, one of those starts was a disaster, allowing six earned runs in 0.1 innings, which inflated his numbers at the level before the season ended.

Stephen possesses excellent control, striking out 110 batters versus 20 walks across three levels in 2025. He sits in the low to mid 90s and touches 96 with his fastball and every one of his pitches have the potential to be plus. I could easily see him being a mid-rotation starter for Cleveland for years to come if he stays healthy. Look for Stephen to begin 2026 repeating at Double-A, but if performs well, he could be promoted quickly and could make his MLB debut at some point this summer or fall if he continues to impress.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number nine in the Guardians’ loaded farm system! Your options are below:


Juan Brito, 2B (Age 24)
2025 (CPX) 26 PA, .190/.346/.333, 1 HR, 0 SB, 11.5 BB%, 30.8 K%, 93 wRC+
2025 (AAA): 99 PA, .256/.357/.463, 3 HR, 4 SB, 13.1 BB%, 21.2 K%, 115 wRC+

Was lined up to make his MLB debut in 2025, but multiple injuries prevented the switch-hitter from getting his opportunity and it’s possible he could be passed up completely.

Juneiker Caceres, OF (Age 18)
2025 (CPX) 160 PA, .289/.419/.469, 3 HR, 5 SB, 16.9 BB%, 11.3 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (A): 130 PA, .250/.331/.345, 1 HR, 2 SB, 6.9 BB%, 13.1 K%, 103 wRC+

Impressed at the complex league, then hit the ground running in a late season promotion to Single-A before running out of steam late in his age-17 season. Loaded with potential.

Jaison Chourio, OF (Age 20)
2025 (CPX) 27 PA, .261/.370/.304, 0 HR, 1 SB, 14.8 BB%, 37.0 K%, 95 wRC+
2025 (A+): 353 PA, .235/.380/.284, 2 HR, 9 SB, 18.7 BB%, 21.8 K%, 103 wRC+

Chourio was lining up to be Cleveland’s top prospect after a sensational 2024, but he was slowed in 2025 by a nagging shoulder injury and had a very average season. He’s looking to bounce back in 2026.

Josh Hartle, LHP (Age 22)
2025 (A+): 22 GS, 103.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 3.06 FIP, 24.0 K%, 8.9 BB%, 1.05 WHIP
2025 (AA): 2 GS, 10.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 2.79 FIP, 16.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Acquired from Pittsburghin the Spencer Horwitz trade, Hartle was one of Cleveland’s most successful starting pitchers in its minor league system in 2025. Stands 6-foot-6, but doesn’t have a ton of velocity.

Jace LaViolette, OF (Age 22)
2025 (NCAA) 262 PA, .258/.427/.576, 18 HR, 7 SB, 21.8 BB%, 25.2K%, 120 wRC+

Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.

Alfonsin Rosario, OF (Age 21)
2025 (A+) 354 PA, .268/.362/.490, 16 HR, 12 SB, 10.8 BB%, 25.1 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (AA): 145 PA, .211/.303/.391, 5 HR, 2 SB, 10.3 BB%, 33.1 K%, 105 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.

Kahlil Watson, OF (Age 22)
2025 (AA) 253 PA, .247/.337/.461, 8 HR, 7 SB, 10.3 BB%, 28.5 K%, 134 wRC+
2025 (AAA): 176 PA, .255/.358/.477, 8 HR, 10 SB, 12.5 BB%, 26.7 K%, 121 wRC+

Acquired in the Josh Bell trade, Watson had his best season in 2025 after switching to the outfield from shortstop. Possesses a unique blend of speed and power mixed with great athleticism.

Friday morning Rangers things

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers made a trade yesterday.

Kennedi Landry writes that the Rangers go from floaters to “win now” mode with their acquisition of MacKenzie Gore.

Evan Grant says that Chris Young is making a definitive statement on 2026 with the move.

Jeff Wilson writes that Gore has the potential to be one of the league’s best lefties.

Fangraphs’ Ben Clemens says the Rangers are aiming for one more shot at playoff glory (Gorey) with the move.

Keith Law thinks Fien et al in exchange for Gore is a hefty price to pay.

Ken Rosenthal has various other notes and rumblings from the trade.

And the DMN has five things to know about the newest Ranger.

That’s all for this morning. Happy Friday!

Evgeni Malkin makes his case for a contract extension from the Penguins

Evgeni Malkin has been crystal clear in his comments to the media about two two subjects this season that he’s openly talked about, at times unprompted.

  1. He doesn’t want this 2025-26 season to be his last in the NHL
  2. He doesn’t want to leave the Pittsburgh Penguins for a different team

There’s been nothing in the way of smokescreens or subtext with the messaging. What you see is what you get. Malkin has mostly gotten his way professionally in the last 20 years but the team hasn’t been as quick to get on that page.

Kyle Dubas and company have slow-played the situation. Dealing with a 20-year franchise legend can be a delicate process, as seen in Malkin’s last contract negotiation in 2022 where it took until the 11th hour to get an agreement for a four-year contract that the team almost reluctantly handed to him.

Pittsburgh’s stance this time around was understandable. Malkin will turn 40 this year, he was coming off his worst full season in 2024-25, producing only 50 points in 68 games. He’s had a couple of knee surgeries. That’s not a case where a team is going to rush into a signing, especially one like the Pens who have a stated goal to get younger. There wasn’t any movement on the contract this summer. Dubas addressed the matter at the start of training camp:

“He’s in a great mood every day,” Dubas said. “No change on [the contract] front. I spoke with him and [agent J.P. Barry] in the summer when stuff started percolating there. At the time in every one of their careers, I’ll sit when time permits….The [Olympic] break provides a key opportunity for that…I expect him to have a great season.”

With that stance, it shouldn’t be overlooked that Dubas essentially added to the list of his recent accomplishments in a subtle way by stoking the competitive fires in Malkin. That shows a crafty impact as a manager to go beyond a major trade or free agent move to enhance performance. Sometimes pulling a lever like “go have a great season and we’ll touch base with your agent at the Olympics after we see how things are looking” can help a team as much as anything. Dubas didn’t rush to re-sign Malkin, yet he also didn’t close the door completely either. He just made Malkin do the work to walk through it.

It was a challenge Malkin took to heart, accepted and has made his mission to complete. Despite missing time with a shoulder injury, he has been sensational this season when he’s been in the lineup to the tune of 39 points in 35 games, often performing as one of the best players on the ice on any given night.

Those performances included last night’s 6-2 win over Edmonton where Malkin produced a goal and an assist. He playfully shrugged off retirement notions again:

“I never say I want to retire. It’s all you. I feel great, and I like how we play. It’s always fun to win.”

It’s not difficult to see the goal constantly in mind to not have this year be his final one has inspired Malkin. He’s played his normal center position, then willingly shifted to the wing while jokingly volunteering to line up at defense or even goalie if that was what it took for the team to be successful.

Turns out his forward position has more than sufficed. Any doubts on whether or not he’s still got it were emphatically wiped away last night in the sequence where Malkin poked the puck away from no less than Connor McDavid, took off down the ice (despite being at the end of a shift lasting 1:20) and scoring on the breakaway.

Malkin would continue in the post-game:

“But I hope you see…it’s not easy. I try to do my best because I knew I wanted to play one more year. I want to show I’m still a good player. I want everybody to see that I can play next year. It’s my goal right now.”

At this point it ought to be an open and shut case. Pittsburgh is going into the offseason with over $50 million in salary cap space. It doesn’t truly matter to anything beyond the bottom line whether they pay him $5, 10 or $15 million next season, they can easily fit him at any price (though here’s betting an extension will be closer to the lower-end of that spectrum).

Malkin’s season has been an inspired effort to prove himself all over again, to meet a challenge and earn a spot with the Pens in 2026-27. He’s passed those tests with flying colors. The NHL’s Olympic break starts in two weeks, it’s almost time for Dubas and the Pens to hold up their end of the bargain and reward the icon with a well-earned ticket to play in Pittsburgh next season.

Chase Petty is the #9 prospect in the Cincinnati Reds system!

Chase Petty did not have a good 2025 season.

At the big league level, he was roughed up for 14 R (13 ER) in just 6.0 IP, with a trio of long balls yielded – and walked more (8) than he struck out (7). Down at AAA Louisville, he was tagged for 91 R (80 ER) in just 112.2 IP, his 102/58 K/BB far from anything worth writing home about.

Still, there’s a ton there to like. He’s a guy who has thrown as hard as 101 mph in his career, and he has a full five-pitch mix when things are going well. Over at Reds Minor Leagues, Doug Gray even openly wondered if a mid-season alteration to how he used that mix was behind some of his late season struggles, and that will certainly be something to watch with Derek Johnson as Petty revvs up for the 2026 season down in Goodyear, Arizona.

Petty also doesn’t turn 23 until shortly after the season begins, and there’s still ample time for development from him if he can rediscover the kind of consistency needed to be a big league starter. And if that doesn’t pan out, he’s still got the kind of arm that could make him follow the path of, say, Connor Phillips to the back of the bullpen.

Petty checks in 9th in this year’s CPR, and did so with a pretty overwhelming portion of the vote this round.

2026 DRaysBay Community Prospect List: Vote for No. 9

Previous winner (via runoff)

7. Jadher Areinamo, INF
22 | R/R | 5’8” | 160
A+ (MIL) | .255/.316/.397 (126 wRC+) 415 PA, 11 HR, 15 SB, 8.2% BB, 11.6% K
AA (TB) | .255/.316/.697 (111 wRC+) 159 PA, 4 HR, 6 SB, 7.5% BB, 11.9% K
VEN | .364/.420/.692 162 PA, 13 HR, 5 SB, 8.6% BB, 12.3% K

Acquired in return for Danny Jansen at the 2025 trade deadline, Arienamo was promoted straight to Double-A by the Rays, and his success at that level carried over into the Venezuealan winter league, where his 1.112 OPS and 13 HR were each the second highest marks in the league and earned him the ROY award. He’s considered to have a high baseball IQ, strong motor, excellent bat control, and defensive flexibility, any one of which could earn him an entertaining major league debut.

8. TJ Nichols, RHP
24 | 6’5” | 190
A+ | 3.63 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 96.2 IP (19 G, 18 GS), 30.4% K, 5.4% BB
AA | 0.97 ERA, 2.27 FIP, 37.0 IP (6 GS), 28.0% K, 6.8% BB

A sixth rounder from 2023, Nichols entered the Rays organization with low mileage and control issues, a match made in development heaven. Fast forward to 2025, and his 68% strike percentage ranked 10th best among all minor league pitchers with 100 innings, according to Baseball America. His breaking ball is a big fish in a little pond thanks to its two-plane movement. By my eye, he has a mid-90’s dead zone-ish fastball with easy, over the top heat, and a classic but inconsistent change up. Despite all his gains in control it’s his command that might hold him back, but he fills the zone and might be able to eat innings, which is enough for a back end starter floor. If you’re buying stock, he’s Kimberly-Clark.

RankPlayerPositionVotesTotalPercentageLast Season
1Carson WilliamsSS142556%1
2Brody HopkinsRHP192576%8
3Jacob MeltonOF142850%N/A
4Theo GillenOF142654%13
5Ty JohnsonRHP122548%15
6Daniel PierceSS132357%N/A
7Jadher AreinamoINF152854%N/A
8TJ NicholsRHP132846%N/R

The runoff between Areinamo and Nichols was well rewarded with a very close vote. There seems to be an open question if Areinamo’s ceiling justifies his ranking, but in my view the floor is on par with what many Top-100 prospects eventually deliver, which leads us to where we are today. The next round adds two pitchers: Harrison and Urbina.

Candidates

Caden Bodine, C
22 | S/R| 5’10” | 200
A (BAL) | .326/.408/.349 (133 wRC+) 49 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 5 BB, 8 K

Drafted 30th overall in 2025, Bodine was acquired in the Shane Baz trade. He profiles as a relatively safe prospect thanks to 60 grade bat-to-ball skills, and comfortably-plus blocking and receiving behind the plate. There is some concern that his smaller frame limits him to fringe power, but those concerns are off-set by solid plate discipline from both sides of the plate; his sweeter swing is left handed. All catching prospects will see their value proposition shift with the challenge system, but his defensive actions, leadership, and receiving give him real value, projecting him as a solid major league contributor.

Anderson Brito, RHP
21 | 5’10” | 155
A+ (HOU) | 3.28 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 49.1 IP (12 GS), 31.1% K, 13.4% BB

Acquired in the Brandon Lowe trade, Brito has three plus pitches with a fastball that touches 100 with cut-ride, and two breakers in a mid-80s curveball with surprising depth and a mid-80s slider he commands best. He also mixes in a developing low-90s cutter and a scattershot but intriguing mid-80s changeup with strong velocity and movement separation, with some added deception from his smaller frame helping limit hard contact. The concern is control, as he’s posted below-average strike rates in A-ball across 2024–25 and lacks consistent feel outside the slider, leaving him to project as a slightly wild, high-leverage reliever for now. Still, with multiple plus pitches, improved durability, and meaningful command gains, he has mid-rotation starter upside, giving him possibly the widest range of outcomes on this list. Baseball Prospectus describes him as having “Shohei Ohtani’s stuff with Johnny Cueto’s body.”

Slater de Brun, OF
18 | L/L | 5’10” | 187

Drafted 37th overall in 2025, through a draft pick traded by the Rays, de Brun was essentially re-acquired in the Shane Baz trade. Like many Rays outfield prospects he’s not expected to develop much power, but compensates with an ability to hit to all fields, and has the benefit of years to develop. His hit tool rates plus thanks to a quick, compact swing, and his double-plus speed elevates both his baserunning and range in center; he has a solid arm and can stick long term. The key to his development will be improving pitch selection to maximize his power potential. Despite not yet playing in a pro game, he’s a good bet to skip the complex league and debut in Charleston this season.

Michael Forret, RHP
22 | 6’3” | 190
A+ (BAL) | 1.51 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 59.2 IP (16 G, 15 GS), 33.5% K, 7.5% BB
AA (BAL) | 1.88 ERA, 2.03 FIP, 14.1 IP (3 GS), 15 K, 3 BB

A product of the State College of Florida Manatee – Sarasota (formerly Manatee Junior College), Forret was a well above slot ($450k) 14th round draft choice in 2023 and arrives via the Shane Baz trade. Despite missing some time to a back injury in 2025, his array of fastballs and breaking balls already look major league ready. He seems adept at trying new things, as he picked up a whiff-worthy kick change in 2024, and is already tinkering with a Rays-like sweeper, both through his offseason program at Tread Athletics. He has a low release point (below 6 feet) but a rising fastball, and has — to quote Eric Longenhagen — “sensational feel.” Forret pitches with efficiency and variety, and could climb the ladder quickly in 2026.

Trevor Harrison, RHP
20 | 6’4” | 225
A | 2.61 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 82.2 IP (17 GS), 22.4% K, 10.7% BB
A+ | 3.33 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 24.1 IP (5 GS), 23.8% K, 12.4% BB

Harrison entered the season as Baseball America’s top pitcher in the system thanks to a cleaned up delivery and high heat. He ran into some bumps in the road by running up his pitch count against batters, but he still made it over 100 innings in 22 starts. A power pitcher through and through, his hard slider flirts with cutter classification and could evolve into two distinct pitches down the road. It will be interesting to see how his change up plays as he’s challenged at higher levels, but for now he has premium stuff and the upside of a rotation anchor. (video)

Xavier Isaac, 1B
22 | L/L | 6’3” | 240
AA | .201/.366/.446 (144 wRC+) 175 PA, 9 HR, 1 SB, 19.4% BB, 29.7% K

Isaac had his season cut short large-in-part due to the discovery of a brain tumor, disrupting an otherwise great start to the season that duplicated his cup of coffee in Double-A as a 20-year old, despite some minor arm injuries along the way. He has the best power projection in the system, and if he can hold his own for a full season in 2026 — particularly against southpaws, which is somewhat of a concern — the former first round pick (29th overall, 2021) could see his status restored near the top of the Rays prospect rankings.

Tre’ Morgan, 1B/LF
23 | L/L | 6’0” | 215
AAA | .274/.398/.412 (119 wRC+) 402 PA, 8 HR, 8 SB, 15.9% BB, 19.2% K

Morgan continued to hit without power in 2025, a great discouragement for some evaluators, but his present 50-grade hit tool and feel for the zone allow a major league projection. He continued his improved, quieter two-strike approach in 2025 that built on his success retooling his swing in the AFL last year. The Rays gave Morgan 14 starts in Left Field last season, and Baseball America called the defense “playable,” but his value is tied to his plus-plus defense at First.

Santiago Suarez, RHP
21 | 6’2” | ?
A+ | 2.88 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 40.2 IP (10 GS), 26.9% K, 3.6% BB
AAA | 5 ER (9 H, 2 BB, 3 HR) 11.0 IP (2 GS), 9 K

Suarez climbed the ladder to Triple-A to finish a short season, as some triceps/shoulder issues hampered his 2025, but when called upon this Venezuelan strike-thrower has earned the trust of his managers to go out there and pitch. He has two plus fastballs, with easy heat but average ride on the 4-seam, and a hard cutter with tight bite. His only complimentary pitch thus far is a 12-6 curve, which makes it a fairly vertical arsenal. He gets good extension, although I’d be remiss to not mention the double pump in his plant leg that on first glance looks like noise, but has led to evident repeatability. What Suarez boasts in control he might lack in command. Right now it’s a supinator’s profile with an average arm slot. To progress he either needs to add some east-west depth to his arsenal (à la Chris Bassitt), or find ways to unlock the spin rates a touch more (Shane Baz). I’d expect him to slot into Montgomery’s rotation as one of the younger starters for his level.

Brendan Summerhill, OF
22 | L/R | 6’3” | 200
A | .333/.429/.444 (160 wRC+) 42 PA, 0 HR, 5 SB, 6 BB, 5 K

Following an All-Star performance at the Cape Cod summer league, Summerhill exhibited some of the best bat-to-ball skills in NCAA as a junior at Arizona. His draft stock took a minor hit due to injury (broken hand from from punching a cooler) and was drafted 42nd overall, but Summerhill rebounded well with a dominant stop at Charleston to finish the year. Summerhill has plus barrel control, allowing for a high-contact approach for his long swing. He has plus speed as well, which provides a chance to stick in center. Evaluators would like to see more power to complete a five-tool profile. Even if the power doesn’t materialize, it’s an above average contributor’s projection.

Jose Urbina, RHP
20 | 6’3” | 180
A | 2.05 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 92.1 IP (19 GS), 26.4% K, 8.2% BB
A+ | 2 ER (2 HR)
, 4.0 IP (1 GS), 5 K, 0 BB

Good pitchers grow and adjust, and Urbina has done that consistently at an age young for his level. Physically he has grown in strength, sitting at 96 with the fastball after flashing high octane in 2024, and technically he has grown, refining his dialed up slider and his two-plane curveball into complementary pitches — which lack plus command but are thrown with feel. He shouldered a starter’s workload at 19, and was awarded one additional start at High-A, where he allowed two solo shots and struck out five. Overall, the age, body, and body of work have him on the trajectory of top prospect lists in the near future.

Good Morning San Diego: Jake Cronenworth remains in San Diego, but his role in 2026 is unknown

Jake Cronenworth has been talked about as a potential trade piece for the past couple of seasons. He has value in that he can play multiple positions and is steady at the plate. For now, Cronenworth is projected to be the second baseman for the San Diego Padres on opening day although that could change in the coming weeks. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at Cronenworth and what he can bring to the 2026 team as part of his ongoing Padres roster review.

Baseball News:

Lightning vs Blackhawks Prediction, Picks & Same-Game Parlay for Tonight’s NHL Game

The Chicago Blackhawks welcome the Tampa Bay Lightning on ESPN to open tonight’s NHL slate.

Tampa Bay enters as the hottest team in hockey, and my Lightning vs. Blackhawks predictions call for that momentum to roll on.

Read on for my NHL picks for Friday, January 23.

Lightning vs Blackhawks prediction

Lightning vs Blackhawks best bet: Lightning -1.5 (-105)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have won 13 of their past 14 games, with 10 of those victories coming by at least two goals. Not only do the Bolts enter this matchup in stronger form, but they are also more rested, having not played since Tuesday’s 4-1 win over the San Jose Sharks.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Blackhawks enter this contest on the second half of a back-to-back that included travel from North Carolina to Illinois. With Spencer Knight having started the previous night, Chicago is expected to turn to backup goaltender Arvid Soderblom.

Soderblom has struggled mightily this season, posting a 5-8-1 record with an .868 save percentage and a 3.97 goals-against average.

Across the ice, Andrei Vasilevskiy is slated to start for Tampa Bay. Entering this matchup in dominant form, Vasilevskiy is 9-0-1 over his past 10 starts with a .926 save percentage and a 1.66 goals-against average.

The Lightning are also the superior team across the board, outranking Chicago in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), and expected goal share.

Lightning vs Blackhawks same-game parlay

Tampa Bay’s Brandon Hagel looks to keep his hot hand going against his former team. Hagel has scored seven goals over his past eight games.

Meanwhile, linemate Nikita Kucherov also enters this contest in strong form, having scored five goals over the same stretch.

Lightning vs Blackhawks SGP

  • Lightning -1.5
  • Brandon Hagel anytime goalscorer
  • Nikita Kucherov anytime goalscorer

Lightning vs Blackhawks odds

  • Moneyline: Lightning -250 | Blackhawks +205
  • Puck Line: Lightning -1.5 (+105) | Blackhawks +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+115) | Under 6.5 (-135)

Lightning vs Blackhawks trend

Tampa Bay has won 13 of its past 14 games, with 10 of those wins coming by at least a two-goal margin. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Blackhawks.

How to watch Lightning vs Blackhawks

LocationUnited Center, Chicago, IL
DateFriday, January 23, 2026
Puck drop7:00 p.m. ET
TVESPN

Lightning vs Blackhawks latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Reed leads in Dubai and McIlroy needs a big weekend to challenge for the title

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Patrick Reed moved into the lead at the Dubai Desert Classic on Friday and has a familiar foe trying to chase him down over the weekend.

Rory McIlroy sounds up for the fight, too.

“I came from 10 behind a couple years ago to win,” the No. 2-ranked McIlroy said defiantly. “I think I’m seven back at the minute.”

McIlroy sure will need to improve to reel in Reed, the former Masters champion who kept his card clean and shot 6-under 66 to take a one-stroke lead after the second round at Emirates Golf Club.

Reed, a LIV Golf member who plays frequently on the European tour, made four birdies and a 40-footer for eagle at the par-5 13th. The American was on 9-under 135 for the week.

McIlroy birdied the par-5 18th to shoot 69 and repair some of the damage from a 72 in the first round.

Few know the course better than McIlroy, the record four-time champion — including in 2024 when he was 11 shots back heading onto the 18th hole on the Friday yet still won, and in 2023 when he outlasted Reed in a memorable final-round duel that got personal.

Throw in their loud singles match at the Ryder Cup in 2016, won by Reed, and they certainly have some history.

“If I go out there tomorrow, maybe in slightly better conditions in the morning, and post a low one, then I’ll be right in the mix come Sunday,” said McIlroy, who was tied for 20th.

Reed, who has placed second and 10th in his two other appearances at the Dubai Desert Classic, said he was happy with his game, having started with a round of 69 in much tougher conditions.

“The good thing is today I felt like (I'm) hitting the ball exactly where I need to and I feel like I’m hitting some solid putts,” Reed said.

Andy Sullivan finished birdie-eagle to shoot 65 — the lowest round of the day — and was alone in second place, one stroke ahead of Italian pair Andrea Pavan (68) and first-round leader Francesco Molinari (72).

Johnson misses cut

Dustin Johnson, the longtime former No. 1, was the biggest name to miss the cut after a second straight 74.

The American is becoming an afterthought in golf after moving to the breakaway LIV circuit in 2022, the same year as Reed, and has slid to No. 639 in the world ranking.

Fleetwood languishing

No. 3-ranked Tommy Fleetwood is another headliner in Dubai, where he now lives, but only just made the cut after struggling to a 72 to be 10 shots off the lead.

Better placed was Tyrrell Hatton, the defending champion who shot 69 and was in sixth place, four strokes off the lead.

Hatton, another LIV golfer, chipped in for eagle at the short par-4 No. 17 for his highlight of the day.

___

AP golf: https://apnews.com/hub/golf

Rockets vs. Pistons predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for January 23

After blowing a fourth quarter lead and losing in OT in Philadelphia last night, Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets (26-16) are in the Motor City tonight to face Cade Cunningham and the Detroit Pistons (32-10).

Durant scored 36 and Amen Thompson added 17 in the loss for the Rockets. Joel Embiid had a night for Philly scoring 32, pulling down 15 boards and handing out 10 assists.

The task is no easier tonight for the Rockets. It’s the second half of a back-to-back and the opponent are the Eastern Conference-leading Detroit Pistons. They lead the conference in rebounding (46.3 per game). Cunningham, who is averaging 25.7 points and 9.8 assists, is the unquestioned leader of the Pistons but his availability is a question mark tonight (illness). Detroit owns a sparkling 17-4 record at home this season.

The Rockets sit fourth in the Western Conference. Following last night’s loss in Philly, Houston has now lost five in a row. Houston is the top rebounding team in the Western Conference (49.0/gm) led by Alperen Sengun (9.2reb/gm).

The Pistons won the first meeting of the season between these teams, 115-111 on October 24. Cunningham had 21 points and 9 assists to pace Detroit. Durant had 37 for Houston in the loss.

Lets take a closer look at the matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including thelatest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Game Details and How to Watch Live: Rockets at Pistons

  • Date: Friday, January 23, 2026
  • Time: 7PM EST
  • Site: Little Caesars Arena
  • City: Detroit, MI
  • Network/Streaming: Amazon Prime Video

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest NBA Player News for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

Game Odds: Rockets at Pistons

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Houston Rockets (+140), Detroit Pistons (-166)
  • Spread: Pistons -3.5
  • Total: 216.5 points

This game opened Pistons -3.5 with the Total set at 217.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NBA schedule! 

Expected Starting Lineups: Rockets at Pistons

Houston Rockets

  • PG Amen Thompson
  • SG Josh Okogie
  • SF Kevin Durant
  • PF Jabari Smith
  • C Alperen Sengun

Detroit Pistons

  • PG Cade Cunningham
  • SG Duncan Robinson
  • SF Ausar Thompson
  • PF Tobias Harris
  • C Jalen Duren

Injury Report: Rockets at Pistons

Houston Rockets

  • Aaron Holiday (back) is OUT for tonight’s game
  • Steven Adams (ankle) is OUT for tonight’s game
  • Fred VanVleet (knee) is OUT for tonight’s game

Detroit Pistons

  • Cade Cunningham (illness) is listed as questionable for tonight’s game
  • Duncan Robinson (back) is listed as probable for tonight’s game
  • Ronald Holland (back) is listed as probable for tonight’s game
  • Caris LeVert (illness) is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game

Important stats, trends and insights: Rockets at Pistons

  • The Pistons are 17-4 at home this season
  • The Rockets are 11-13 on the road this season
  • The Pistons are 22-20 ATS this season
  • The Rockets are 20-22 ATS this season
  • The OVER has cashed in 17 of the Pistons’ 42 games this season (17-24-1)
  • The OVER has cashed in 19 of the Rockets’ 42 games this season (19-21-1)
  • Reed Shepherd has hit at least three, 3-pointers in each of the Rockets’ last 4 games (15-30)
  • Tobias Harris has not taken a single free throw in the Pistons’ last 3 games

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
 
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s Rockets and Pistons’ game:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Pistons on the Moneyline
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Pistons -3.5
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 216.5

Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today’s calendar! 

If you’re looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!

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Wizards Lose Eighth Straight

In a classic dog days of the NBA season kind of game, the Wizards lost to the Denver Nuggets, 107-97. It was Washington’s eighth straight loss, and it was a slog to watch.

Both teams seemed tired and low energy. The Nuggets had something of an excuse — they played Tuesday in Los Angeles and flew across the country. Washington’s last game was at home on Monday afternoon. Maybe they had some hard practices?

Wizards guard Tre Johnson played a solid game in the team’s loss to the Denver Nuggets.

Despite both teams missing loads of shots, they combined for 17 total transition points — nine for the Wizards, and eight for the the Nuggets. The Nuggets walked the ball up the floor on many possessions. They exhibited relatively disciplined shot selection and won just enough possessions to get the win.

The Wizards, who usually push the ball up the floor quickly after opponent makes or misses, were content to walk it up themselves. Unlike the Nuggets, they were far more likely to take a quick shot. If there was a theme in this game, it was Washington working hard individually to get a difficult shot, and the Nuggets working as a team to get better ones.

This was certainly not a rule. Jamal Murray had a “Murray Flurry” (as dubbed by the Nuggets broadcast) in the third quarter that was heavy on isos. Peyton Watson had a few terrific one-on-one play. In general, though, the Nuggets would run actions and move ball and players until they got an advantage, and then attack.

Watson played great for the Nuggets — a career-high 35 points along with 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and 4 blocks. He took a hard fall when he got clotheslined trying to dunk on Khris Middleton after earlier turning his ankle landing after scoring a highlight-reel bucked on Alex Sarr. His emergence as a quality offensive option is a great development for Denver — made possible by Nikola Jokic’s knee injury.

Thoughts & Observations

  • While transition defense wasn’t much of an issue last night (the Nuggets were apparently too tired to run), one play early in the game exemplified the team’s struggles defending in transition. Denver came up with a steal and Murray started up the floor. Tre Johnson was the only defender back — two Nuggets players were ahead of the ball. Johnson had to choose — match up with his man on the wing or pick up Aaron Gordon in the center of the floor. Correct prioritization would have sent him to Gordon. Johnson went to the wing. That left Gordon alone under the rim for an easy dunk.
  • I could be wrong on this one, but…there was an offensive fast break I think the Wizards got wrong. They had a three-on-two. Kyshawn George had the ball and was dribbling to the offensive end right-of-center of the court. To his left was Sarr in the middle and Will Riley on the wing. To me, the right play would have been for George to go to the middle and for Sarr to cross over to get on his right — ball in the middle flanked by offensive players. Another option could have been for George to move further right to open more of a lane for Sarr to come down the middle of the lane and force a Denver defender to guard two guys. Instead, George dribbled straight up the floor, Sarr and Riley ran their lanes, and Denver defenders never had to make a real decision. The tight spacing gave George only two real options — drive into two defenders or kick it out to Riley on the wing. The tight spacing meant there was a relatively short closeout. Riley missed the three-point attempt, and the Wizards didn’t score on a three-on-two break.
  • George was this close to having an impressive game, despite shooting just 6-17 from the floor. He had 12 rebounds, 7 assists, and a steal. The three turnovers were acceptable given the assists and his overall offensive load. He’s gotta stop fouling so much — especially the pointless tantrumy ones.
  • The spate of “injuries” meant that Anthony Gill got rotation minutes, and he wasn’t bad.
  • One good thing: unlike their last matchup with the Nuggets, I didn’t see the Wizards helping off Murray. He had to work harder to generate offense.

Four Factors

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORSNUGGETSWIZARDSLGAVG
eFG%50.0%45.8%54.4%
OREB%28.2%28.6%26.1%
TOV%11.8%15.1%12.8%
FTM/FGA0.2890.2380.211
PACE9399.6
ORTG115104115.7

Stats & Metrics

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Tre Johnson346612421.4%1.1125-11
Kyshawn George346611030.5%-1.1118-4
Alex Sarr367111819.0%0.4106-9
Justin Champagnie18351916.9%1.81312
Anthony Gill12232134.3%0.91171
Will Riley21409627.5%-2.2635
Jamir Watkins183610611.3%-0.4722
Bub Carrington38747222.5%-7.310-18
Khris Middleton28547718.5%-3.9-43-18
NUGGETSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Peyton Watson407817023.8%9.937513
Jamal Murray367010929.0%-1.317218
Aaron Gordon336513219.2%2.013623
Jonas Valanciunas224312930.6%1.7152-3
Bruce Brown18359624.2%-1.7150-7
Spencer Jones28541213.2%0.1450
Zeke Nnaji102013311.5%0.490-2
Jalen Pickett33636813.3%-4.0-1516
Tim Hardaway Jr.20381921.0%-7.8-172-8

Six Brewers named to Baseball America’s top 100 prospects

Baseball America just announced their top 100 prospects in baseball heading into the 2026 season. Let’s take a look at which Brewers prospects made the cut:

4. SS Jesus Made

I’ve written about Made a lot over the last year (and this offseason), so there isn’t a lot to say about him that hasn’t already been said. BA considers him a 70-grade (!) prospect with average risk, but nothing he’s shown so far has indicated that he won’t be able to adjust as he continues to rise through the minor league system.

Made is pretty much the complete package at the plate, showing above-average speed, power, and contact throughout three different levels of minor league ball. He may not stick at shortstop long-term, but that’s mainly due to Cooper Pratt’s presence as opposed to any inherent defensive deficiency. He made some errors over the course of the year, but his defense improved significantly — he projects to be, at the very least, a slightly-above-average defender.

After a hot start with Low-A Carolina in 2025, Made earned a mid-season promotion and hit even better (.915 OPS) before being promoted again — just in time for the Double-A playoffs. If he keeps improving (he should), he’ll be knocking on the door of the Brewers’ clubhouse in no time. He’s the best prospect Milwaukee has had since Jackson Chourio and should be very fun to watch in a Brewers uniform someday.

47. SS/2B Luis Peña

Peña has just as high of an offensive ceiling as Made despite questions surrounding his plate discipline and long-term defensive abilities. He’s an “athletic, aggressive hitter who tracks pitches well with excellent hand-eye coordination.” He also doesn’t strike out all that much (8.2% in 2025) despite often swinging at pitches that maybe he shouldn’t. Peña frequently posts high-level exit velocities (up to 106 mph), although his swing is geared toward top-spin line drives — meaning that his home run numbers (1 HR in 2025) are somewhat lacking despite having tons of raw power.

Peña’s ranking, per BA, is honestly quite a bit lower than I thought it would be. Peña got promoted to High-A alongside Made, but while Made improved on his Low-A stats, Peña faltered a bit (.844 OPS with Carolina, .517 over 101 at-bats with Wisconsin). He’ll need to show improvement on his numbers to justify ranking him this high, but if he starts the season off hot, he’ll probably rise significantly up BA’s rankings.

50. SS Cooper Pratt

Out of the three shortstops at the top of the Brewers’ farm system, Pratt is the best defensive prospect. I’ve said it before, but I genuinely think he’d be an above-average shortstop at the major league level in 2026. I absolutely love his defensive game. He gets to balls a lot of other shortstops don’t get to and doesn’t make many mistakes.

The bat is still a work in progress, although Pratt shows traits that hint at his bat developing further. Per BA, swing is simple, balanced and stays short to the ball for a 6-foot-3 hitter. Pratt will expand the strike zone a touch more often than he should, particularly against sliders down and away, but he has a good sense of timing with the hand-eye coordination that leads to a low swing-and-miss rate.“ For what it’s worth, scouts don’t think he’ll develop much power due to his low top-end exit velocities and lack of bat speed. Still, if he develops as hoped, a defensive wizard shortstop who can hit for average is a highly valuable player.

71. SS/2B/OF Jett Williams

Williams and his former teammate in the Mets organization, Brandon Sproat, deserve their own article once I have the time to watch some film. For now:

There was a reason many Mets fans are disappointed that Williams, the No. 14 overall pick back in 2022, was part of the return for Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers. He could be very good, very soon. His best traits at the plate are his on base ability and swing decisions, both of which sound very Brewers. Unlike most recent Brewers acquisitions, he comes with a ton of accolades. Williams was BA’s No. 1 overall Mets prospect coming into last season. Also according to BA, Williams was the best baserunner and had the strongest infield arm in the Mets organization. After the 2025 season, Williams was named the Eastern League’s top Major League prospect.

Williams also boasts significant power (17 home runs in 130 combined games last year) and should be able to hit for power at the next level, despite his diminutive stature (5’6”). Williams’ final standout trait is his versatility — while he’s mostly played shortstop as a member of the Mets organization, he’s notched at least 33 career starts at both second base and center field.

Williams had an .868 OPS in 96 games for the Mets’ Double-A affiliate last year. Upon his promotion to Triple-A, his OPS dropped a little bit (.718 OPS in 36 games), but I’d bet on his numbers bouncing back up somewhere closer to where they were in Double-A once he spends significant time at that level. It doesn’t hurt that the Brewers front office clearly thinks he could be someone (remember Caleb Durbin…).

81. RHP Brandon Sproat

Sproat, the other player that the Brewers got in return for Peralta and Myers, is going to fit in great with the Brewers’ “pitching lab.” Fun fact about the 25-year-old righty — the Mets actually drafted him twice, selecting him in the third round in 2022 and second round in 2023. He more than lived up to that draft capital through Double-A, but eventually hit a bit of a wall in Triple-A. Through his first 22 starts in Triple-A, Sproat posted an abysmal 6.45 ERA. His last 11 starts, however? A 2.44 ERA and 30% (!!) strikeout rate. He was called up in September and made four starts with the Mets before the end of the season, with varying results.

While he’s not quite as highly ranked of a prospect as Williams, he’s a legitimate talent. Sproat only posted a 4.24 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) at Triple-A Syracuse last season, but the underlying peripherals — 113 strikeouts in 121 innings pitched, .218 opponent batting average — point to a pitcher who could find success in the big leagues. Per BA, his standout traits are his control (“good enough to start” in the majors) and his breaking balls, which “stand out.” Sproat threw his mid-80s sweeper and high-70s curveball about a third of the time in his MLB debut and leaned on them as putaway pitches. He also throws a harder slider. Sproat’s sinker sits 94-96 mph, but despite that velocity, it operates as a groundball or set-up pitch rather than a whiff pitch.

96. RHP Logan Henderson

Most of you saw Henderson in his stint with the Brewers last year, a stint that was cut short due to right elbow inflammation. Despite the injury, the promise that he showed in 25 1/3 IP (1.78 ERA) with Milwaukee was enough to land him on BA’s Top 100. Henderson isn’t going to blow anyone away, but he’s a smart pitcher who gets good movement on his pitches. His standout pitch is his 80-ish mph “Nintendo pitch” changeup, which played off his fastball effectively both in Triple-A and in the majors. It’s fair to wonder whether he’ll have the same level of success once major league teams get a full year of film on him, and he certainly (almost certainly?) won’t post an ERA under 2.00 next year.

Still, Milwaukee trading Peralta and Myers shows that they have confidence in their pitching depth heading into 2026, and Henderson looks to be a significant part of the Brewers’ rotation plans for 2026. He won’t be on this list next year.

Others Receiving Votes

  • RHP Bishop Letson
  • OF Luis Lara
  • C Jeferson Quero
  • C Marco Dinges
  • 2B/OF Josh Adamczewski
  • 3B Andrew Fischer
  • RHP Tyson Hardin

Zach Eflin is eager to prove himself again. What might that look like?

When it comes to the starting rotation, the Orioles’ 40-man roster currently includes these names: Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Tyler Wells, Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin.

True to GM Mike Elias’s promises, the Orioles have been beefing up the offense with some new bats, notably the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso himself. They even added a new starter in Baz, acquired from Tampa for a hefty passel of prospects. But if 2026 is to go well, the Orioles need to complement their rebooted offense with a return-to-form from one or more of Povich, Kremer, and Young, plus a successful return-from-injury from Baz, Bradish, Wells, and certainly, Zach Eflin.

You may recall that the Orioles acquired Eflin from the Rays in July 2024. He joined a rotation helmed by Corbin Burnes, but suffering from the loss, due to injury, of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Grayson Rodriguez. Eflin was really good down the stretch, exceeding expectations with a 5-2 record, 2.60 ERA, and 149 ERA+ over nine starts. The Orioles fell flat in the playoffs, but it was hardly his fault.

Eflin’s dominance, paired with the loss of free agent Burnes, made him the clear choice to be Baltimore’s Opening Day starter in 2025. He make that start, but then things quickly went sideways.

Eflin struggled to stay healthy last year (he wasn’t the only one). After just three starts, the righty went down with a right lat strain on April 9. He returned a month later but couldn’t find a groove. By mid-May, this team was in freefall, and a healthy Eflin could have provided a stabilizing presence for the roster. Instead, he hit the IL again on June 30 with lower back discomfort. It’d prove his last start of 2025, as he eventually underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy in August.

All in all, Eflin would do four stints on the IL while pitching to a 5.93 ERA in just fourteen starts.

As a pending free agent, Eflin could have been a trade chip in a season going nowhere. Instead, injuries prevented the Birds from flipping the starter for any value, and he elected free agency at season’s end. Though it wasn’t clear whether a reunion was in the cards, on December 29, the Orioles announced they were bringing him back on a one-year, $10 million deal, with a mutual option for 2027.

In a December Zoom call with the media, Eflin spoke candidly about his back issues. The injury, he explained, dated back roughly a decade, but last year it had progressively worsened, and it was the first time he couldn’t manage it at all. Surgeons discovered a bone spur pressing into a nerve—which explained the shooting pains Eflin had been dealing with. And unlike a Tommy John recovery, which can take fourteen-to-eighteen months, Eflin said he felt immediate relief after the operation, and now says he’s now in the best physical condition of his life. His first bullpen was scheduled for January 6 and his goal is to be ready for Opening Day.

So what to expect from this new-and-improved Zach Eflin?

The pessimist’s version: A guy who’s started more than 25 games only three of ten seasons in his career and who just posted a 5.93 ERA in an injury-shortened season.

The optimist’s version: The guy we saw in 2023 with Tampa Bay, when he went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA, led the American League in wins, and finished sixth in Cy Young voting. That season, his first in Tampa, Eflin set career highs in starts (31), innings (177.2), and strikeouts (186), while posting career-best marks in ERA and WHIP (1.02). Then he outdid himself the next year!

I think the bet here is reasonable, although a one-year deal certainly suggests caution by the front office. If the back pain really was a substantial part of why Eflin had an ERA near 6 for the 2025 season—his time missed strongly suggests it was—and it was corrected by a reasonably simple surgery, then there’s a plausible story where 2026 looks for him a lot more like 2023.

Plus the Orioles don’t need Eflin to be their ace this time around. Bradish, Rogers, and Baz should occupy the top spots. Guys like Eflin, Wells, and Kremer can fill out the rotation. In that role, the pressure is lower. A healthy Eflin as your No. 4 starter? Teams would kill for that.

This doesn’t mean the Orioles should stop looking for pitching. They shouldn’t. Free agents like Framber Valdez would obviously upgrade the rotation. But a healthy and effective Eflin represents a scenario where the Orioles might not need to make a splashy signing to have a good rotation. If he bounces back, if Bradish returns well from Tommy John, if Baz fulfills his potential—that’s a rotation that can compete in October. The margin for error is thin, but it exists.

Eflin himself seems to understand the stakes. “[I didn’t want] to be the guy they traded for and get hurt and not be the guy that they wanted,” he said. “That really weighed on me.” He wants to prove something. He’s motivated. And for the first time in years, he’s pain-free.

Championship windows don’t stay open indefinitely. “We want to win the World Series,” says Eflin. The Orioles know this; it’s why they signed Alonso, traded for Ward and Baz, brought in Ryan Helsley, and resigned their No. 4 starter. A bounce-back Zach Eflin might be one of the quieter pieces of this puzzle, but he could end up being one of the most important.