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We're double-dipping on a West Coast matchup today, highlighting our favorite MLB picks for today's slate.

Read on to see why our baseball experts like both a side and a total in the Mariners/Athletics matchup — along with several other top picks for Tuesday.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Josh Inglis: SEA/ATH o9.5	+100
Neil Parker: ATH ML	-104
Joe Osborne: MIN ML	-108
Jon Metler: ARI ML	+100

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mariners/Athletics Over 9.5

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

Bettors saw five home runs yesterday at Sutter Health Park, and that kind of output could show up again today with Ballpark Pal grading it as the best park on the slate for both home runs and run scoring. Luis Severino has struggled to navigate the park this season, carrying a 5.55 ERA and 2.2 HR/9 at home, compared to just 0.5 HR/9 on the road. Seattle Mariners starter Emerson Hancock also brings some red flags, ranking in the Bottom-20 among qualified starters in HR/FB rate, plus his xERA suggests his current 3.07 ERA could be headed in the wrong direction — after posting an ERA near 5.00 last season. THE BAT, still the best projection model in the industry, has this as the highest-scoring game on the slate with 11.23 projected runs and a fair price of -188 on Over 9.5, making it one of the best +EV sides on the board today.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM

Neil Parker's expert pick: Athletics moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

The Athletics have beat up on righties, to the tune of a second-ranked OPS and third-ranked wOBA, and Seattle RHP Emerson Hancock has surrendered a healthy 44.2% hard-hit rate, while also sporting an unsustainable 83.3% strand rate. Hancock has also been more vulnerable away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, allowing a .355 wOBA with a 5.12 ERA across 96 2/3 career innings on the road. Additionally, Luis Severino has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts, while spinning a solid 2.92 ERA and 3.09 xERA.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Twins moneyline

Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket

Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan has been dominant in May, posting a 1.47 ERA while allowing just 10 hits over 18 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Sean Burke has hit a wall for Chicago, with a 5.59 ERA this month, and the White Sox have dropped six of his last eight starts. Minnesota also owns a massive bullpen edge, ranking 2nd in ERA over the past two weeks — compared to Chicago sitting at 27th. The offenses are closer, but the Twins are still the hotter lineup entering this game.

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: CHSN, MNNT

Jon Metler's expert pick: Diamondbacks moneyline

Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket

There’s no reason the Arizona Diamondbacks should be trading near 50 cents against the San Francisco Giants in this matchup. I make Arizona closer to 56-cent favorites, which gives us solid value at the current price.

This is also a difficult offensive setup for San Francisco. The Giants already struggle to generate consistent offense, and facing left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez only complicates things further. The lefty-lefty matchup neutralizes a lot of the impact from key bats like Rafael Devers and Luis Arraez.

Meanwhile, Arizona’s lineup is in a great spot. Ketel Marte is swinging a hot bat, while Corbin Carroll is one of the best gap hitters in baseball and an ideal fit for the spacious alleys at Oracle Park.

• Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Dbacks.TV,NBCS Bay Area

More MLB best bets for today

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I'm hoping this hot weather breaks this cold snap I'm on.

I'm still targeting hot hitters this week for home runs and MLB player props, and even going back-to-back in some spots at better prices in better spots.

Baltimore is a strong place to look for home runs, and Yandy Diaz's prices may not stay north of +650 for long if he keeps slugging at this level. I'm also backing two bats, led by Julio Rodriguez, at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.

These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, May 26.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Yandy Diaz	+670
Randy Arozarena	+600
Julio Rodriguez	+448
💲Today's HR parlay	+20900

Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+670)

I'm not getting next-day theoried today with Yandy Díaz, who I'm getting at a better number than yesterday and is still grading as +EV, per the projections at Covers.

Over the last two weeks, he has been one of the best bats in baseball, ranking seventh in slugging and third in BlastContact%. He’s ripping extra-base hits right now with six over his last five games and gets a great matchup in a favorable park today.

Oriole Park grades as the No. 4 home run environment on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and Shane Baz is a strong target for dingers.

The Baltimore right-hander just saw this Tampa lineup in his last start, so the familiarity edge shifts to the hitters in today’s matchup. He has allowed a home run in seven of his last starts and ranks in the bottom 50 among starters in BlastContact% and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days.

This is a buy to +600.

• Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, Rays.TV

Home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+600)

Sutter Health Park is once again grading as the best home run environment on the slate today, per Ballpark Pal.

The wind is blowing out, and the pitching matchup is better than it may look at first glance, as Luis Severino has been hit hard there and the splits back it up. The Athletics starter owns a 2.2 HR/9 in Sacramento compared to just 0.94 HR/9 on the road.

Six of his eight home runs allowed have come in that minor-league park.

Seattle clubbed four home runs yesterday and could leave the yard multiple times again vs. Severino and the bullpen, as no team in baseball has allowed a higher HR/9 at home than the Athletics.

Randy Arozarena at +600 is my target with a fair price of +530, per the projections at Covers. The right-handed hitter ranks 10th in slugging and 15th in BlastContact% over the last 14 days and is one of just six hitters inside the Top 15 in both categories during that stretch.

He went deep yesterday and added a double, and now owns a .299/.390/.477 slash line on the season.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV

Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+448)

I'm running it back with Julio Rodriguez in what projects as the best home run-hitting environment on the board today. This is a spot that graded out as +EV at +360 in a similar setup yesterday.

This is easily the best HR park on the slate today, and Luis Severino has struggled, like most starters, in this minor-league park. His HR/FB rate ranks in the Bottom 25 among MLB starters, and that number is even worse at home.

J-Rod didn’t go deep yesterday, but he entered that game slugging .667 over his last seven days with two home runs. Luke Raley at +350 was a consideration as a left-handed alternative, but J-Rod at this price is the stronger look.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV

Today’s HR parlay

Yandy Diaz	Bet Now +20900
Randy Arozarena
Julio Rodriguez

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Dodgers on Monday beat the Colorado Rockies, completing exactly one third of their season, now 54 games into the 162-game schedule.

As we’ve done for the better part of two decades, we like to take a look at each season in 54-game chunks, seeing how players seasons are put together. For now, we just have the first third of the season to go on, so we’re not necessarily comparing players to themselves. But on a team level, the Dodgers are on pace for 102 wins, and have won at least 32 of their first 54 games for eight years in a row.

The Dodgers allowed only 171 runs so far this season, fewest in MLB at 3.17 per game. It’s the fewest runs allowed by the Dodgers through 54 games since 1989. The plus-108 run differential is the Dodgers’ third-best through 54 games since 2013, the start of their streak of postseason appearances.

Now let’s look at the individual players.

Will Smith’s numbers are down across the board. Dalton Rushing got off to a scorching hot start, with seven home runs in his first 28 plate appearances. Rushing also started three games at designated hitter and two at first base. Those games are counted in his numbers above, as is Smith’s lone start at DH.

The Dodgers offense feels underwhelming, but in reality they lead the majors in wRC+ (119) and on-base percentage (.344), rank third in runs scored (5.17 per game), and are top five in the majors in home runs, slugging percentage, walk rate, and lowest strikeout rate. That’s a testament to the depth, even with injuries and few individual starts standing out.

Andy Pages is the breakout star thus far, providing excellent defense in center field with a 136 wRC+ and leading the majors in RBI. Max Muncy is having one of his best seasons. Kyle Tucker has been above average but not spectacularly so.

Tommy Edman hasn’t yet played this season. Mookie Betts missed 32 games with an oblique injury, and has been quite bad when he’s played so far. Alex Freeland and Hyeseong Kim filled in, combining for 67 starts in the middle infield, and while their defense was quite good, the offense was below average. Same for veteran Miguel Rojas.

Watch out if Kiké Hernández can keep up this blistering pace though.

Shohei Ohtani is at worst the Dodgers’ second-best hitter thus far, and while it feels silly to complain about a 147 wRC+, he’s coming off three years of a collective 177 wRC+ and 153 home runs. So far, Ohtani only has eight home runs a third of the way through this year. His 2026 offensive production is more in line with his 2021-22 with the Angels, his first two seasons fully unleashed as a two-way player when he had a 146 wRC+. Imagine getting that kind of — again, still stellar — offense from someone who’s also on pace for nearly 150 innings of Cy Young Award-caliber pitching.

Ohtani has allowed only six runs in his eight starts, and has not allowed multiple runs in any of his 49 innings to date.

The rotation was incredibly stable for the Dodgers until roughly the last two weeks, after injuries to Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Outside of one bullpen game, the Dodgers used only seven starting pitchers in the first third of the season, with six pitchers accounting for 52 starts. Dodgers pitchers have 30 quality starts, most in the majors.

Justin Wrobleski made one bulk relief appearance of four innings on March 30, but the vast majority of his time was as a starter, and his stat line above reflects his full season to date. Similarly, Will Klein was the first pitcher of a bullpen game on May 15 in Anaheim, but that is included with the relief numbers below.

The depth has again shone through, especially with Edwin Díaz getting surgery after only six innings with the Dodgers. Tanner Scott has looked like the dominant reliever the Dodgers signed two offseasons ago, while Will Klein, Kyle Hurt, and Edgardo Henriquez have worked their way up the trust tree.

Dodgers relievers really picked up the slack of late amid heavier usage, going from the eighth inning on May 12 through May 24 without allowing a run. The bullpen’s streak of 38 (but spiritually 40) consecutive scoreless innings is the longest in modern franchise history.

That’s our look at the first third of the Dodgers 2026 season. We’ll be back in two months to see how the middle portion went.

In baseball, there is only one finite resource. We can argue endlessly about which is more exciting, a perfectly executed bunt single or a smash through the hole, a triple or a home run. But none of that matters for winning games as much as managing that one resource as effectively as humanly possible.

Outs.

In 2005, there were 1620 sacrifice bunts. In 2025, there were only 560. Some of that is because pitchers stopped hitting after 2021, but that just goes to emphasize the point more. If you don’t already have an automatic out at the plate, a sacrifice is a bad baseball play. An extra base is almost never worth an out.

Need more evidence? Check out these run expectancy matrices. Runner at first with no outs? That averaged 0.87 runs in 2025. But a runner at second with one out? 0.67 runs. The numbers are similar the entire way across the matrix. Giving up an out for a base always reduces the number of runs you can expect to score every time. This makes sense if you think about it logically, too. A sacrifice bunt means sacrificing an opportunity to add another runner to the bases or to even drive in the run(s) in that plate appearance. There are an infinite number of bases to be gained in a 9-inning baseball game, but only ever 27 outs.

This goes beyond sacrifice bunts, though. The biggest revelation of the Moneyball Athletics teams was that OBP is more valuable than batting average. How can that be when a hit might be more than a single, but a walk only ever gets you to first base? Because a walk still represents not giving up an out. As long as you still have outs, you’ve still got a chance to win a game. Not giving them away is, therefore, the most important thing. But the Royals, even as they seem to be more analytically inclined than in years past, still don’t seem to get this.

Let me post a quote from an answer given by manager Matt Quatraro during a recent post-game press conference (emphasis mine):

[…] Our offense has to be predicated on some of the aggressiveness on the bases and sometimes you’re going to make those outs.

The Royals have used statistical analysis to determine that bringing in the fences would likely help the team play better. They spent the off-season chasing players with good on-base percentages, which has led to a team OBP of .313 – the highest they’ve had since 2015. But their analytic abilities seem to falter when it comes to the value of an extra base compared to an out despite the fact that run expectancy matrices have existed since before the Royals were even a team.

Earlier in that quote, Quatraro pointed out that the Royals don’t hit bunches of home runs. This misses the point badly. Because every time you make an out on the bases, it represents one fewer plate appearance the team can take in that inning and the entire game. The 2015 Royals had an unofficial slogan of “keep the line moving” because they also didn’t hit home runs, but they didn’t make terrible outs on the basepaths and so were able to keep getting on base and eventually force those runners home. But, hey, fewer plate appearances also means fewer opportunities to hit those home runs. So there’s that, too.

The Royals’ front office and coaching staff are not stupid. These people know baseball well. Most of them more than any of us. But that’s just why it is so painful to see them make judgments so lacking in basic logic. You don’t have to be a baseball genius to know that if you’ve got a highly limited resource like outs, you shouldn’t give them away without a darn good reason.

This weekly feature, which normally posts on Mondays, is running today because Monday was a holiday and there was a day game to keep our minds occupied, not that the result of that day game was any good.

This edition of “who’s hot, who’s not” includes the games of the recently-completed homestand and doesn’t include the numbers from Monday’s game.

Here’s who was hot and not for the Cubs during the six-game homestand, during which the Cubs went … 0-6.

Three up (and it wasn’t easy to find three!)

Ethan Roberts moves up in the Circle of Trust

At age 28, and after multiple injuries, Roberts appears to have finally figured things out. He did allow a run this past week, the first one he’d given up all year, but that was all over the 4.2 innings he threw against the Brewers and Astros.

For the season, Roberts has an ERA of 0.73 and a WHIP of 0.892. He’s allowed only five hits, four of them singles, in facing 45 hitters.

The Cubs could use some more reliable relievers, so this is a good sign.

Jacob Webb continues his scoreless streak

Webb, who had a rough start to his season, threw a scoreless inning against the Brewers and Astros, one against each, and now has not allowed a run in his last five outings and only one run in his last nine, for a 0.00 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in May, with two walks and 13 strikeouts in 11 innings.

Again, reliable relievers are what this team needs and Webb looks like he could be another one.

Hoby Milner continues to baffle hitters

Look at Milner’s velocity chart:

I mean.. how does a pitcher in 2026 get hitters out throwing like that?

And yet, Milner does. He had scoreless outings against both the Brewers and Astros, and this month he has a 1.08 ERA and 0.960 WHIP in eight appearances covering 8.1 innings.

Here, he strikes out Milwaukee’s Blake Perkins on a ridiculous changeup [VIDEO].

You’ll notice that all three of the “up” players are relievers. That’s because, well, you don’t want to hear about Cubs starting pitching over the week and the offense batted .163/.269/.245 (30-for-184) in the six games with 56 strikeouts. Yikes.

I will give one positive mark to Pete Crow-Armstrong. Even though he had a rough week overall, in the series against the Astros he batted .286/.538/.714 (2-for-7) with a home run and five walks, including his first-ever three-walk game in the major leagues. If PCA can continue to coax walks, his entire offensive game is raised.

Three down

Uh-oh, Shōta Imanaga

After Imanaga had a really good start to 2026, posting a 2.32 ERA over his first nine starts with just five home runs allowed in 54.1 innings, last week made those numbers way, way worse. In two starts this past week against the Brewers and Astros, Imanaga had a 13.08 (!) ERA, 1.935 WHIP and four home runs served up in just 10.1 total innings.

Let’s hope he figures it out before his next start, which should come up Friday in St. Louis.

Alex Bregman’s offense has vanished

Bregman got off to a slow start and some attributed it to — well, maybe “new team,” “cold weather,” other possible reasons.

The weather is getting warmer and now Bregman has two months as a Cub and last week, his offense pretty much disappeared. He batted .174/.269/.174 (4-for-23) with one walk and five strikeouts. As you can see by the SLG equalling the BA, none of the hits were for extra bases. In fact, Bregman has only four XBH in May in 84 at-bats — three doubles and a home run.

He’s still playing quality defense, though. Check out this nice pick and throw he made on Sunday [VIDEO].

Somehow, Bregman is still a 1.0 bWAR player, suggesting he could have a decent WAR season… if he starts hitting. Like, now.

Seiya Suzuki also looks lost at the plate

Suzuki went 2-for-4 in each of the first two games against the Brewers, but then went 0-for-13 in the last four games of the homestand before Craig Counsell gave him a day off on Monday (other than a PH appearance, in which he struck out).

Perhaps the (mostly) off day will help him reset.

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The Texas Rangers will look to rebound following an ugly blowout loss to the Houston Astros in their series opener. 

My Astros vs. Rangers predictions expect the home team to turn things around quickly and even things up Tuesday night.

Let's break it all down with my MLB picks for May 26. 

Who will win Astros vs Rangers today: Rangers moneyline (-135)

The Houston Astros are riding a four-game winning streak while the Texas Rangers have dropped four in a row. Even so, the underlying data favors the Rangers offense of late.

The Astros own a .290 wOBA, .652 OPS, and 35.1% hard hit rate over their last six games. 

Despite getting no-hit Monday, the Rangers have fared better in each category over the same period. They are sporting a .333 wOBA, .757 OPS, and 39.4% hard hit rate.

Jack Leiter has also out-performed Jason Alexander in ERA, FIP, xFIP, and K%, making the Rangers a buy up to -140.

COVERS INTEL: In this game, four of the Top-5 batters in OBP vs. righties this month play for the Rangers.

Astros vs Rangers Over/Under pick: Under 8 (-110)

Globe Life Field is very pitcher-friendly, and that’s evident looking at the Rangers’ home numbers. They rank 29th in wOBA vs. righties at home compared to third on the road. 

The Rangers are not the kind of team that will blow up a lesser pitcher, which will allow for Jason Alexander to grind out some innings.

Conversely, the Astros are hitting .205 against righties over the past two weeks and now find themselves in a pitcher-friendly park. Leiter’s xERA is a full run lower at home, setting him up for a quality start.

Play the Under to -115.

Astros vs Rangers odds

• Moneyline: Astros +110 | Rangers -130
• Run line: Astros +1.5 (-175) | Rangers -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)

Astros vs Rangers trend

The Rangers have hit the game total Under in 20 of their last 25 home games (+15.7 units, 57% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Rangers.

How to watch Astros vs Rangers and game info

Astros vs Rangers latest injuries

Astros vs Rangers weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Wander Franco is guilty of sexually abusing a 14-year-old girl in 2023, a judge in the Dominican Republic made clear Monday.

Yet in his next breath, the same judge ruled that the former Tampa Bay Rays star shortstop will not be sentenced to prison because he was a victim of blackmail and extortion by the girl’s mother.

Celebrity justice in the D.R. can be perplexing, and Judge José Antonio Núñez admitted as much. But he also contended that the judicial pardon he granted Franco was the result of “logical and legal reasoning.”

“It seems contradictory to declare criminal responsibility and, at the same time, exempt him from punishment,” Núñez said. “The court has granted Wander Franco a judicial pardon due to the particular circumstances that made him a material victim, but not a legal one.”

The court found that the girl’s mother extorted thousands of dollars from Franco. The woman was sentenced to 10 years in prison on charges of commercial sexual exploitation of a minor and money laundering.

Read more:Rays' Wander Franco found guilty in sex abuse case, receives two-year suspended sentence

The odds are long that Franco will return to Major League Baseball any time soon. The fact that the court found him guilty of repeatedly having sex with a minor puts him squarely in violation of MLB’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy.

The league is in the midst of an investigation into Franco’s conduct.

“We respect the legal process and the decision issued by the court,” the Rays said in a statement. “This is a serious matter, and our thoughts remain with those affected by the case.

“The Rays will continue to cooperate fully with Major League Baseball as it completes its review under the league’s Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy. Out of respect for the legal process and all parties involved, we will have no further comment at this time.”

Franco’s situation serves as a cautionary tale for MLB teams that hand out long-term contracts years before players become free agents. The Rays signed a 20-year-old Franco to an 11-year, $182 million deal in November 2021 after he batted .288 with 30 extra-base hits in 70 games as a rookie.

Franco appeared on his way to stardom during a stellar 2023 season, but according to court filings he carried on a relationship with the 14-year-old victim for several months.

Read more:A star pitcher at USC, he was cut after six years in the minors. Then Banana Ball came calling

An investigation was launched in August of 2023. Franco was arrested Jan. 1, 2024, after failing to appear before Dominican authorities who sought to interview him.

Tampa Bay placed him on the restricted list early in the 2024 season, voiding his contract.

Franco was found guilty in a June 2025 trial. Although prosecutors sought a five-year prison sentence, he was given only a two-year suspended sentence by Justice Jakayra Veras.

“Look at us, Wander,” Veras said in open court. “Do not approach minors for sexual purposes. If you don’t like people very close to your age, you have to wait your time.”

An appeals court in December ordered a new trial, which took place Monday and resulted in his pardon.

“Thank God for everything,” Franco said as he embraced his mother, Nancy Aybar, after Judge Nuñez announced the pardon.

As he departed the courthouse, Franco was asked by a reporter how he felt.

“I feel calm,” he said.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.