On the court, a calf strain has cooled off Giannis Antetokounmpo and kept him in street clothes.
Off the court, Dec. 15 is the day that 79 players who signed or extended their contracts last summer become eligible to be traded — it's the unofficial opening day of NBA trade season. That, however, didn't move things closer to an Antetokounmpo trade.
Where do things stand with an Antetokounmpo trade? Let's break it down.
Is Antetokounmpo willing to be the bad guy?
As of Dec. 15, the main thing holding up a serious Antetokounmpo trade market is Antetokounmpo himself.
Antetokounmpo has yet to actually demand a trade — if he doesn't knock over the first domino, the others won't fall in time for the Feb. 5 trade deadline. The league is still waiting for Antetokounmpo to make his move, something NBA insider Marc Stein noted in his latest Substack missive. Milwaukee is not going to trade the best player they have had since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar until he demands it (as Kareem himself did).
While Antetokounmpo and his agent are reportedly meeting with the Bucks about his future, that is not a trade demand. At least yet. Antetokounmpo has come off as not wanting to be the bad guy in all this and force his way out of Wisconsin, but he is not getting traded at the deadline unless he is willing to be that guy. (Things change this summer, when if he refuses to sign a contract extension with the team, then the Bucks will be forced to make a deal or risk losing him for nothing.)
Knicks not all in?
If Antetokounmpo does demand a trade, the market for his services may not be quite as robust as expected, although some of that also could be posturing by teams.
Multiple reports have said Antetokounmpo wants to play in New York. While the details on the discussions between the Knicks and Bucks last August remain vague, what you believe happened says a lot about what you want to see happen in the future. The spin out of New York is that it made what it believed was a fair offer for Antetokounmpo. The vibe out of Milwaukee was that New York did not go all in on a trade.
Why should the Knicks come harder for Antetokounmpo now? With New York at 18-7, playing for the NBA Cup championship, sitting near the top of the East and looking every bit a contender, why would it break up the core of what it has and overpay for Antetokounmpo at the deadline? Especially if it feels he is going to force his way there anyway?
That is exactly what the Knicks are thinking, Sam Amick reports at The Athletic. If Antetokounmpo wants to be a Knick, he is going to have to force his way there — and hope another team doesn't swoop in with a better offer that the Bucks just take (like the Raptors did with Kawhi Leonard, or like the Bucks themselves did when Damian Lillard wanted to go to Miami).
Speaking of the Heat…
Could Miami be in play?
The Miami Heat are always big game hunting — is South Florida a place Antetokounmpo would be open to playing? A lot of league sources say yes, according to Amick at The Athletic.
The challenge with an Antetokounmpo-to-Miami trade is that, to make it work, the Heat would have to give up a lot, likely including Tyler Herro, possibly Kel'el Ware (he could be a sticking point in the trade talks), and a lot of draft picks. If a deal could be reached with all those players thrown in, are the Heat the contenders that Antetokounmpo wants to play for?
That said, never count Miami out in a deal.
Timberwolves interested in Giannis
The Timberwolves are 17-9, but the team that reached the Western Conference Finals each of the past two seasons has looked more like a team taking half a step back than the step forward they expected.
That has Minnesota as one of the teams to watch if Antetokounmpo becomes available, according to NBA insider Chris Haynes. This trade would have to be centered around Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randle, with a lot of picks thrown in to make it work.
Would Antetokounmpo want to go to Minnesota? Only he can say, but Antetokounmpo next to Anthony Edwards would be a force.
Spurs, Rockets face same question
Both San Antonio and Houston have long been linked to Antetokounmpo because they are stacked with young players and stockpiled draft picks. These two teams can put arguably the best offers on the table for Antetokounmpo.
But should they?
Both of those teams are already very good, both are young and improving, and both play in a West where needing to beat Oklahoma City four times in seven games is a daunting concern for teams going all-in this season. These are both teams that like the rosters they have right now — and both are winning right now and only going to get better.
Would both of them be better off waiting a season or two, letting their young stars mature, allowing the tax apron start to take its toll on the Thunder, and then making any all-in moves? If they even need to.
Another thing those teams have to consider is availability. Antetokounmpo is out right now with a calf strain and missed time earlier this season with a groin strain. He just turned 31. As ESPN noted this week, the team that trades for him will offer him a max extension of $275 million that will take him to age 37. All of that is giving some teams a slight pause, and should with the Spurs and Rockets.
No doubt, the thought of Antetokounmpo next to Victor Wembanyama is frightening. As is the idea of Antetokounmpo between Amen Thompson and Kevin Durant. But those are already teams on the rise — San Antonio just beat Oklahoma City in the NBA Cup — so why not build on the Thunder model and let their young guys mature before making a big swing? For the Rockets, Durant complicates that timeline, but the team is still top four in the East and improving.
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Raphielle Johnson
