Category: Sports News

As the Astros approach the all-star break, there are a few positions that are potentially intriguing and could spell the difference between sneaking into the playoffs and falling short. Catching is one of those positions. There can be no doubt that Yainer Diaz has disappointed up to this point, but could a hot second half make a bigger difference? Plus, there is a significant difference between league wide expectations and positional expectations.

One of the more fascinating debates in baseball is the notion of how one chooses the MVP. Last season, there was a significant debate between Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge. By most conventional and sabermetric yardsticks, Judge was the better player and deserving of the award. However, even if jettison WAR and other similar indicators, there is a compelling argument that Raleigh was extremely productive at a position where it is rare to get that kind of production.

My favorite stat when it comes to production is bases per out. Simply put, the out is the blood currency of the sport. Each team gets 27 of them and the goal is cause as much damage as you can for every out you generate. This is why sacrificing has gone by the wayside. It is one thing to look at league averages and those can be very instructive, but league averages don’t tell the whole story.

When I compare players for the Hall of Fame, I always look at only the position. It makes no sense to compare a catcher with a first baseman. The demands of the position are different and the comparative performances are different. I ran through the semi-regular to regular catchers in the American League. In order to qualify you had to have at least 120 outs. That usually corresponds to about 200 plate appearances. Comparing the likes of Yainer Diaz and Christian Vazquez to the league average is depressing.

The major league average bases per out sits at .676 through the last weekend. A few days of numbers aren;t going to change that much once you are 90 games into the season. We can look at both catchers and come away underwhelmed when looking at the big league average. Of course, the same would be true for most of the AL catchers. Below is a table of the catchers in the AL minus Diaz and Vazquez. What we are essentially looking for is a positional mean and median.

This is a reminder that bases per out is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it into total outs. I love this stat because it encompasses everything a player does offensively into one number. It is more accurate than OPS and actually tracks pretty well with rOBA and wOBA. Below is a look at the AL catching universe through the weekend.

Remember, we are looking at regular catchers in the American League minus Diaz and Vazquez. We do that to give us an idea of what the competitors are doing and to look at something to shoot for. If you are adept at math, you will notice that the median row does not add up. Somehow, the components of bases per out do not equal what the players are actually doing. The mathematical median of the row would actually equal .5548 or .555 rounded to the thousands place.

What does this mean effectively? In short, there are five really good offensive catchers that are driving the numerical average up. If you are looking for the actual 8th or 9th best catcher here (there are 16 in the table) then you would get your .526 mark. What that means is that asking a catcher to be overall league average is a hard ask. Victor Caratini is the sixth best offensive catcher in the AL and he doesn’t come particularly close to the overall major league average. So, when we look at the numbers for Diaz and Vazquez below (through Wednesday’s game) we need to look at their numbers through that context.

Diaz is a statistical enigma wrapped in a riddle. Conventional wisdom and simple mathematics would tell us these numbers are simply not good. They are not good compared to MLB norms and they are not good for him historically. However, recent play and the table above tells us something different. Officially, he is right in line with the median catchers in the American League. Obviously, that would look different in a MLB universe and all numbers have their caveats and exceptions. We could look at his total career numbers and look at what expectations he had coming into the season.

The 64,000 dollar question is whether Diaz can ever be this catcher again. My guess is no. The 2023 power numbers are driving this up and he hasn’t been THAT Diaz since. He would obviously need to become THAT Diaz again for his 2026 numbers to approach his career average. The more logical question is whether he could a .600 guy from this day forward. That seems like a doable thing and it could be a huge key at the bottom of the order.

Keep in mind that the Astros wouldn’t be asking Diaz to be an average big league hitter. They would be asking him to be an average offensive catcher. Those are two entirely different things. There are inevitable questions about whether he is a long-term solution at the position. Given his defensive struggles and the inability to draw walks the answer is likely no. Yet, when you are looking for players that haven’t performed well that could in the second half, he is at the top of the list.

The next logical question is how the time share between Diaz and Vazquez should work. Offensive production is only part of the equation. Diaz currently sits at -6 defensive runs saved and -5 in fielding run value. Vazquez sits at +5 defensive runs saved and +2 fielding run value. So, they are separated by approximately one win with the glove. We could also break down catcher ERA and reach the same conclusion. Without getting into commentary on the manager, this decision will be one of the keys after the all-star break.

Rangers 7, Angels 6

• This win — more exciting than it has to be.
• This should have been a blowout, based on the first two-thirds of the game.
• Texas jumped on Reid Detmers early. Nathan Eovaldi was cruising. It was 6-1 after six innings, and you felt like it should’ve been a bigger margin than that.
• Look, let’s not talk about the top of the seventh, okay? Let’s pretend it didn’t happen. Or ignore it.
• Because ultimately the Rangers won. And the rest of the game was quite magnificent.
• For six innings, Nathan Eovaldi was mowing fools down.
• Eovaldi only allowed one run in the first six innings, and even that shouldn’t have happened. After a Wade Meckler single, Zach Neto hit a ball hard down to third that Josh Jung couldn’t handle. It wasn’t an easy play, but it was a makeable play, and could’ve been a double play. Jung had the ball carom off his glove, though, for a single, and when the dust settled, Meckler was at third, and Neto had advanced to second on the throw to third.
• Still, damage limited. Just one run scored. Eovaldi was doing work.
• Eovaldi fanned 10 batters in the game, allowing him to pass Ken Holtzman, Jim Maloney, and Jose Rijo on the all-time strikeouts list. He’s now at #196 all time, with Hoyt Wilhelm, Scott Sanderson and Claude Osteen in his sights.
• He also generated 23 swings and misses, 10 of which came on his splitter, but 9 of which came on his curveball, which was working extremely well.
• So let’s just pretend that he left the game after the sixth. Ignore the catcher’s interference, the walk, and the single to start the seventh that resulted in more runs marring his line.
• And let’s also pretend Peyton Gray was home sick or something. Ditto Tyler Alexander. Let’s move on from their participate in that seventh inning.
• Let’s instead praise the work of Jacob Latz, who recorded outs 22 through 26 of the game for the Rangers. Let’s praise Cole Winn, brought in to face Jo Adell with two on and two out in the ninth, after an 11 pitch walk of Vaughn Grissom by Latz pushed his pitch count north of 40.
• I’m happy to see Adell leave town, by the way. He had a pair of hits on Tuesday, a pair of homers on Wednesday, had a pinch hit single in that seventh inning we won’t speak of to tie the game, and crushed a line drive off of Winn that, fortunately, was right at Evan Carter.
• Brandon Nimmo and his non-existent platoon splits got things started for Texas against Detmers with a weird, opposite-field, line drive home run that seemed like it would be a double but just kept carrying. A Josh Jung double and Jake Burger single made it 2-0.
• Its nice to be the team that scores multiple runs in the first, rather than being the team that is giving up multiple runs in the first.
• Ezequiel Duran added a two run homer in the third. Justin Foscue followed with a solo shot in the fourth, then chipped in a sixth inning RBI ground rule double that would have accounted for two RBIs had the ball not bounded into the stands. The Shed, it is playing less pitcher-friendly of late.
• Justin Foscue is now slashing .367/.466/.796 off of lefties this season. Amazing!
• Not only is Justin Foscue rocking a .398 wOBA this season, he’s got a .371 xwOBA that indicates its not all just random variation and luck dragons.
• Its still a small sample — Foscue has 113 plate appearances, total, for the Rangers this year — but it is encouraging and makes me hopeful the righthanded platoon bat the Rangers have been longing for for so long may have arrived.
• This game was also the return of Wyatt Langford, back off the injured list, starting at DH, and spending the bulk of the game making fans think he should’ve stayed on the i.l. for another day or two, as he was hitless with three strikeouts when he came up to the plate in the ninth inning for his fifth plate appearance of the night.
• Alejandro Osuna had singled to start the inning. Offensive catalyst Nicky Lopez, pinch hitting for Foscue, bunted him over to second.
• And Wyatt Langford, in his return to action, launched a ball to left field that went off the base of the fence. He only gets credit for a single, rather than a double, because Osuna was the winning run, but he’ll take that tradeoff, I’m thinking.
• A game that felt like it was going to be given away late, but that instead resulted in a double-you. The Rangers back in first place by a half game. I’m feeling fine.
• Nathan Eovaldi topped out at 97.9 mph with his fastball, averaging 95.7 mph, a full 1.1 mph over his season average. Peyton Gray hit 93.6 mph with his fastball. Tyler Alexander topped out at 92.8 mph with his fastball. Jacob Latz’s fastball touched 96.8 mph. Cole Winn threw one fastball at 96.6 mph.
• Jake Burger had a 112.6 mph fly out, a 105.5 mph fly out, and a 101.3 mph single. Josh Jung had a 106.7 mph fly out, a 106.7 mph double and a 102.5 mph fly out.. Brandon Nimmo had a 106.0 mph ground out, a 104.4 mph homer and a 104.2 mph single. Alejandro Osuna had a 104.5 mph single. Justin Foscue had a 104.0 mph home run. Ezequiel Duran had a 104.0 mph home run. Kyle Higashioka had a 101.3 mph single.
• Three games against Houston, and then the All Star Break.

The White Sox kick off the 2026 MLB draft by making the No. 1 overall selection at noon CT on Saturday, and will choose among three plum prospects: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey and shortstop Grady Emerson from Fort Worth Christian (Texas) H.S. We’re digging deeper into all three players in anticipation of the third No. 1 overall pick in White Sox history.

Vahn Lackey wasn’t even close to being the favorite to go No. 1 when the spring began. Four months later, after one of the best seasons in college baseball, the Georgia Tech catcher capped one of the biggest rises in the 2026 draft. That’s placed him on the White Sox radar, with word going around that he is the preference of the White Sox brain trust in the front office.

Chicago entered draft day linked to several legitimate candidates for the top pick, and bucking the shortstop trend and grabbing Lackey lands it on the player the team believes could make the biggest long-term impact at one of baseball’s most demanding positions. Lackey combines an advanced offensive approach, standout defense behind the plate and uncommon athleticism, giving Chicago another premium talent to build around.

Taking a catcher with the first overall pick isn’t a move organizations make lightly. But when teams identify the right one, the payoff can be enormous. That’s exactly how the White Sox see Lackey — a player capable of changing a franchise at one of baseball’s most valuable positions.

For an organization that has prioritized athleticism, premium defensive positions, and high baseball IQ throughout its rebuild, the selection would make perfect sense. The White Sox wouldn’t be drafting a mere catcher, but one of the best all-around athletes in the class. Despite spending his collegiate career behind the plate, many evaluators believe Lackey has the athleticism to play elsewhere if needed. To wit, he not only routinely fields balls throughout the infield flawlessly in pregame drills and shags flies in the outfield, but played all eight positions besides pitcher in a March 10 game against West Georgia. Oh, and he didn’t lay his bat down while picking a bunch of different fielding gloves up on that day, as he went 3-for-4 with a double, triple and homer in the win.

Lackey’s path to becoming the nation’s top catcher wasn’t a typical one. He didn’t receive his first Division I scholarship offer until his senior year of high school, after a late growth spurt transformed both his body and his long-term outlook. That development continued at Georgia Tech, where he had a mediocre freshman season but quickly established himself as one of college baseball’s premier backstops from there. By entering the draft after his junior season, Lackey will become the fifth Georgia Tech catcher selected in the first round.

The 6´2´´, 215-pound junior put together a remarkable 2026 season, slashing .397/.519/.772 with a 1.291 OPS, 20 home runs and 78 RBIs, with 50 walks against just 38 strikeouts. He’s also got the wheels of a middle infielder, swiping 15-of-16 bases in 2026 (and 34-of-38 in his college career).

What sets Lackey apart isn’t one standout trait — it’s the complete package. MLB Pipeline graded his hit, power, and arm as 60-grade tools, resulting in a 60 overall grade, and FanGraphs sees his cannon as a 70 grade. Lackey controls the strike zone, drives the baseball with authority and continues to add power without sacrificing the disciplined approach that made him one of the NCAA’s best hitters in 2026. If that profile sounds familiar, it should. It’s become the blueprint for the type of player GM Chris Getz and his front office have prioritized throughout the rebuild.

Defensively, Lackey has developed into one of college baseball’s premier catchers. He paired a .993 fielding percentage with Atlantic Coast Conference Defensive Player of the Year honors and the Johnny Bench Award for catching, while earning praise from scouts for his receiving, leadership, game management and above-average arm. It’s the type of defensive foundation the White Sox value as they continue shaping their roster.

Lackey would join an emerging young core that already includes Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Noah Schultz and Grant Taylor, giving Chicago another premium talent to build around. Despite the White Sox having two blue-chip catchers on the 40-man roster in Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero, the franchise doesn’t have a true defensive presence behind the plate and could well use a fast-moving Lackey in the majors ASAP.

Although Lackey is foregoing his senior season to begin his professional career, catchers traditionally require more development time than players at other positions because of the demands behind the plate. Even so, his advanced offensive approach, defensive polish and athleticism have some evaluators believing he could move through the White Sox system faster than the typical college catcher.

Lackey would arrive in Chicago with one of the most complete résumés in the 2026 draft class. If his all-around game translates to professional baseball, he could storm to the fore as the de facto captain of the next great White Sox team.

Seriously, does anyone think this is weird? When the Draft was moved to align with the All-Star Break, it seemed like a no-brainer to actually put the draft during the All-Star Break. Instead, this weekend, the Draft will begin while teams are still playing their final games heading into the Break. It’s just so weird, like cannibalizing your own viewership. I guess it’s somewhat consistent with MLB’s overall contempt for the regular season, and the idea that no one is going to revolt in terms of local viewership just because a couple of games coincide with something else… but it still feels suboptimal.

Like, the Draft itself is from 1pm to 7:45 pm ET on Saturday, and from 11:30am to 7:30 pm ET on Sunday. You could have everyone play day games and push it into the night. Or, more duh-ingly, just push it into Monday and Tuesday. I understand that MLB might want to have the Draft be more of a hoopla/spectacle like the drafts in other sports, but come on: Day 1 will feature 135 picks in nearly seven hours, a rate of about 20 picks an hour. One pick every three minutes is an awful, interminable “pace of play” as far as viewership goes, and the fact that it’s going four rounds and teams can play underslot games really dents the wide audience viewing interest of it all. If you want to hype up the first few picks, start the Saturday games earlier, put Round 1 on weekend primetime and let the rest go after, trailing into the night. Day 2 is more rapid-fire but also not much to watch live, so they could even put Day 1 on Sunday where all games are over before evening primetime anyway, and burn off Day 2 when there are no games.

In the end, this doesn’t matter, it’s just… weird. I guess like, “Still trying to make the All-Star Game a thing in 2026,” weird, so that tracks.

The wait is almost over, as Philadelphia is set to host the 96th edition of the MLB All-Star game on Tuesday. July 14th. It will be the fifth time the City of Brotherly Love has played host to the event and the first time since 1996 when the game was held at Veteran’s Stadium. The actual All-Star Game serves as a wrap-up to an almost weeks’ worth of festivities celebrating baseball. First, let’s break down the schedule for All-Star weekend before we dive into how the Phillies themselves will factor into everything taking place.

What’s the schedule?

Friday, July 10th: HBCU Swingman Classic presented by USA Baseball

This game that features the best Division-1 college athletes from Historically Black Colleges and Universities will be the first to take place at Citizens Bank Park this weekend. It will begin at 7 pm and will be broadcast live on MLB.com and MLB Network.

Saturday, July 11th-Tuesday, July 14th: Capital One All-Star Village

This is a four-day event that will be held at the Pennsylvania Convention Center where fans can come together and celebrate baseball with legends meet-and-greets, interactive exhibits, contests, and samplings of ballpark concessions.

Saturday, July 11th: 2026 MLB Draft

Also at the PA Convention Center, the first few rounds of the MLB Draft will take place starting at 1 pm and will be broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.

Sunday, July 12th: All-Star Sunday featuring the MLB All-Star Futures Game and the MLBx All-Star 3-on-3

Sunday will prove to be a busy day, as the Futures Game featuring the top prospects from across the minor leagues will kick off the day at noon at Citizens Bank Park. then following the conclusion of that game, the new 3-on-3 baseball competition will begin, featuring Phillies legends Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, and Ryan Howard, AUSL All-Stars, and other Philadelphia athletes from past and present including DeVonta Smith and Terell Owens.

Monday, July 13th: Home Run Derby

The first of the two marquee All-Star events will take place Monday night, as eight sluggers from around baseball will look to capture the title of derby champion as the rules shift back to the old swing-based format with no clock. The derby will begin at 8pm and will be the first to be broadcast live on Netflix.

Tuesday, July 14th: 96th MLB All-Star Game

Finally, the All-Star game itself will conclude the celebration as the NL looks to repeat as winners over the AL after last season’s thrilling swing-off in extra innings to decide a winner. The All-Stars will arrive to Independence Mall at 2pm for the red carpet before the game begins at 8pm at Citizens Bank Park

Who are the Phillies’ All-Stars?

The hometown team will be well represented this year, as the Phillies will be sending six of their players to represent them on their own field.

Brandon Marsh

Marsh has been arguably the Phillies’ most consistent hitter on the season, as he has taken the leap from solid platoon player into everyday All-Star. His meteoric rise dates back to last season after he returned from injury following a brutal month of April where he hit .095 across 16 games. Since returning from a rehab assignment on May 3rd of last year, Marsh has a batting line of .304/.350/.489 in 198 games entering Thursday. This season, he is hitting .305 and is sixth in batting average for the National League. He’s been rewarded for his consistently excellent performance with his first career All-Star selection, receiving enough votes to where he will be in the outfield in the NL’s starting lineup when they take the field.

Jhoan Duran

Speaking of first time All-Stars, Marsh will be joined in that regard by his teammate Jhoan Duran. The Phillies closer has been an anchor in an otherwise shaky bullpen this season with a 1.47 ERA and 22 saves, including 16 straight saves to begin his season. Duran seems a lock to appear in the game at some point, as MLB will no doubt want to feature his electrifying entrance out of the bullpen to a national audience.

Cristopher Sánchez

Sánchez was one of the biggest snubs from the All-Star roster last season, and now he’s a candidate to start the game for the NL on his home mound. The lefty already set the Major League record for the longest scoreless streak ever by a left-handed pitcher back in May when he tossed 50.2 consecutive scoreless innings. It will be the second career All-Star nod for Sánchez with his first coming in 2024.

Jesús Luzardo

Luzardo was a bit of a surprise when he was named as a replacement for Jacob Misiorowski, but he also isn’t entirely undeserving of his first All-Star nod. His traditional numbers may not seem flashy, as Luzardo was 7-4 with a 3.75 ERA at the time he was named to the roster. But if you dig deeper, Luzardo has been better than those numbers may suggest. His 2.9 fWAR has him third behind Sánchez and Misiorowski for the highest among while his 28.6% strikeout rate is seventh best.

Kyle Schwarber

The only thing keeping Schwarber from being a starter in the game like Marsh is that he unfortunately plays the same position (DH) as Shohei Ohtani. Nevertheless, the current MLB home run leader will make his third All-Star appearance with the Phillies and fourth overall. Fresh off of a new five year, $150M extension signed with the Phillies in free agency, Schwarber has continued to cement himself as one of if not the best power hitters in the game, as he is on pace for a second straight season with 50+ home runs. Don’t forget, he was also named All-Star Game MVP last season when he won the first ever swing-off to decide the result of an All-Star Game.

Bryce Harper

The face of the Phillies franchise will make his third All-Star appearance as a Phillie and his ninth overall after being added to the roster with the commissioner’s “legend” pick. However, Harper had a strong case to make the team on his own merit despite finishing third in the voting among NL first baseman, as his .880 OPS entering play on Thursday is tied for the second best among all NL first basemen and his 20 home runs is also second. In any case, Harper will look to live up to his “Showman” reputation once again at All-Star week in his home ballpark like he did when he won the 2018 Home Run Derby at Nationals Park.

Will the Phillies have anyone in the Home Run Derby?

Speaking of the Derby, Harper made it official on Wednesday night with an Instagram post that he will take part in this year’s Home Run Derby. He had previously stated that he was unsure due to his father possibly not being able to throw to him as he did back in 2018 and the different format that will be instituted this year, Schwarber meanwhile has not announced anything as of this writing but recently stated that he is open to it if he was healthy and had already made the All-Star team. With both of those conditions met, it seems likely that he will declare his participation in the coming days. Schwarber last participated back in 2022 where he lost in a swing-off to Albert Pujols in the first round.

Outside of the Phillies, we know for sure at least five other participants as of this writing. They will be Junior Caminero of the Rays, Ben Rice of the Yankees, Willson Contreras of the Red Sox, Jac Caglianone of the Royals, and Jordan Walker of the Cardinals.

Will the Phillies have any prospects in the Futures Game?

In fact, they’ll have two, as Gage Wood of the Reading Fightin’ Phils and Wen-Hui Pan of the Jersey Shore Blue Claws will represent the Phillies organization at the Futures Game. Wood was the Phillies first round pick (26th) in the 2025 draft, and the former Arkansas Razorback who threw a 19-strikeout no-hitter in the College World Series has continued to thrive in his professional career. Coming into the season as the Phillies #5 prospect and 69th prospect overall according to Baseball America, the right hander started the year at Class-A Clearwater but quickly made the jump to Double-A Reading after posting a 3.42 ERA in eight starts with 40 strikeouts in 26.1 innings.

Pan meanwhile was an international prospect signing by the Phillies out of Taiwan in 2023 as a 20-year-old. The 6’3, 220-pound right hander who profiles as a reliever excelled at Low-A Clearwater in his first real taste of professional ball and ended the year with a promotion to High-A Jersey Shore. The ensuing year was not as kind to Pan, as injuries limited him to just 29.1 total innings in 2024 before ultimately undergoing Tommy John surgery in November that cost him all of 2025. But he has rebounded in 2026, working his way to Double-A after rehabbing with Clearwater and Jersey Shore.

In addition to those two players, the Phillies will also be represented in both dugouts, as former Phillies greats and World Series champions Shane Victorino and Larry Bowa have been selected as managers for the Futures Game.

What will the Phillies do in the draft?

This year the Phillies first selection will be 36th overall, as they will incur a 10-pick penalty from their original spot (26th) for exceeding the second Competitive Balance Tax Threshold.

They had a bit of an unorthodox method in last year’s draft, as they selected pitchers with their first eight picks and 14 of their 20 selections overall. It’s a safe bet that they may lean heavier onto the hitting side this year, but really, they should have no preferences. Drafting for need in MLB is foolhardy with the timelines for prospects, but it would be especially foolish from a Phillies standpoint to draft anything other than best player available.

Baseball America has ranked the Phillies with the second worst farm system in their latest updated rankings, placing them 29th with Wood (69th) and the injured Aidan Miller (80th) as their highest Top 100 prospects. Philadelphia is almost barren of anything resembling high end talent and frankly will have a hard time swinging any trades of substance at this year’s deadline. They need a talent influx and cannot afford to be picky in which side of the ball that talent plays on.

Our own Dan Cormican has been profiling some options for the Phillies in the draft, and you can read those previews here.

About a week ago, Sports Illustrated’s Jason La Canfora went looking for evidence to back up a hunch that’s been circulating in Baltimore for three straight seasons now: this team can’t run the bases. His July 1 piece on the Orioles’ fielding and baserunning woes laid out a bunch of metrics, and the picture wasn’t pretty. In actual point of fact, the Orioles are not the literal worst, but it feels bad anyway because, as La Canfora put it, the skipper “keeps begging for clean games and smart baseball but it’s doubtful this team delivers.”

Running has been definitely one of the areas of stupidest baseball for the Orioles in 2026. By FanGraphs’ Base Running Runs, Baltimore sits at -1, ranked 19th in the majors. That’s below average, not catastrophic, but also a waste when you have good foot speed in players like Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday, Leody Taveras, Dylan Beavers, and so forth. Our utility infielder is named Blaze Alexander, for crying out loud! So why does it feel like the Orioles are the sport’s running joke (pun intended) on the base paths?

Well, look closer at several other baserunning metrics, and the Orioles’ efforts look considerably worse. Their stolen-base success rate of 71.6% is 25th in baseball. Only the White Sox, the Tigers, the Rockies, the Twins and the hopeless Mets are doing it worse. Most analytics departments consider 75-78% a threshold where it’s break-even for the risk to be worth it, so the team is clearly adding negative value. Add to that, the Orioles’ steal value at second base (how often they effectively steal second base) is -1, ranked 27th. Extra-bases taken puts them at -4, or 20th in the league, meaning they’re consistently failing to advance from first to third on singles or score from second on doubles at a league-average clip.

You could go beyond that and look at individual “caught stealings” to get a fuller picture of poorly-done risk-reward calculations. The team poster child for this right now is Gunnar Henderson, a massively talented player with both power and foot speed, but whose baserunning instincts are being attacked every other night, it feels like. Getting picked off twice in a single game isn’t just an unlucky night; it’s kind of a routine occurrence for the O’s shortstop this season. Henderson has all of seven steals on the season, a shockingly low number for a player with his athletic profile, and especially considering he’s been caught stealing four times.

There are several players, in fact, whose aggression on the basepaths is currently costing Baltimore more than it’s earning. Even though scouts still project Jackson Holliday as a 25-steal threat one day, he’s nabbing bases at just a 68% clip on his career (again, a league-average benchmark is about 78%). The same is true for a lot of players, it looks like. Colton Cowser has been caught stealing twice, and safely stolen a bag just four times. Dylan Beavers, even worse: two caught stealing to just three bags swiped. Blaze Alexander is fast, but he’s gotten thrown out three times in twelve attempts, so just below average. In fact, it’s Leody Taveras, a fourth outfielder by midseason, who leads the team in stolen bases with just 10. When your team leader in steals is a bench piece, that tells you the top of the roster isn’t running.

Then there’s the part of the game that doesn’t show up in a box score line as cleanly: the Orioles’ inability to execute the contact play in advancing from first to third. La Canfora’s description rates the O’s “a Little League team with the contact play trying to score runners from third with the ball hit in the grass.” That may be harsh, but it points to a real problem. Too many outs are being made at third base and at home plate on plays that should be simple two-out productive outs or sacrifice situations. Blaze Alexander has been guilty of this a lot, judging by the eyeball test. He has the speed and agility to be a weapon on the bases, but keeps making outs at third because he isn’t reading the ball off the bat well. Or he isn’t listening to the third-base coach? Whether it’s talent, speed, judgment or what, it’s supposed to be a problem area that the staff can actually fix in-season through repetition and coaching.

So, are the Orioles the worst baserunning team in baseball? Statistically, no, not quite. Nineteenth place in baserunning value (twenty-fifth in success rate) is unglamorous, albeit not historic. But we could fill in the picture with subsidiary data—pickoffs at first base, botched double steals, times getting thrown out at third or at home (there were three alone in an extra-innings loss to Seattle back in June)—to capture the picture of a team which, if not slow of foot or short on talent, feels, well, just kind of chaotic and messy. Combined with a defense that ranks in the bottom five in outs above average, runs prevented, and defensive runs saved, the Orioles are bleeding runs on both sides of the ball in ways that don’t require a brand-new roster to fix—just better decisions.

Is this, to keep asking the same question (but we have to keep asking it) a Mike Elias problem? La Canfora thinks so, brutally comparing this season to the last one: “Remember, Elias got promotions for himself and 16 other people after years of utter failure here, and now we get to watch an even worse product, with an even more befuddled skipper at the wheel, careen toward the All Star break and another inevitable firesale at the trade deadline with 1983 feeling like 1963 to those of us old enough to remember that last World Series parade.” Ouch. I’m not sure. But for a coaching staff supposed to be on the cutting edge of analytics, and a front office that allegedly drafts for athleticism, the results kind of speak for themselves.

The Mets open a three-game series against the Red Sox on Friday night at Citi Field at 7:50 p.m., pushed back from 7:15 p.m. due to Boston's travel delay earlier this afternoon.

Mets Notes

• Carson Benge has reached base safely in 20 of his last 21 games, including multi-hit games in each of his last four. During this 21-game span, Benge is hitting .322/.385/.517 with four homers, three doubles, and one triple in 96 plate appearances
• A.J. Ewing is hitting .310/.389/.583 (.973 OPS) with six homers, five doubles, 14 runs scored, and 17 RBI in 95 plate appearances over his last 24 games
• Juan Soto is leading the National League in OBP (.414), slugging percentage (.579), and OPS+ (175)
• Luke Weaver hasn't allowed an earned run since April 30. In 26.0 innings over 24 appearances since then, he has given up just 11 hits while walking seven and striking out 3

Today's Lineups

If you have been following the Nats farm system at all this season, you would know Yohandy Morales is having a monster year. The corner infielder is hitting .303 with 21 homers and a .930 OPS on the season in AAA. He has been one of the most productive hitters in the system, but Paul Toboni has been hesitant to call him up.

When you look at some of the underlying data, Toboni’s reasons make some sense. Morales has a very low in zone contact rate and was hitting the ball on the ground over 50% of the time for most of the season. Despite the big surface level stats, that profile is tough to make work in the MLB.

However, I think the time is right for Morales to get the call to the big leagues. Morales has been striking out less and elevating the ball more lately. As I said, his GB rate has been over 50% for most of the season, but that is starting to come down. Right now, his season GB rate is 49.3%. I remember checking a couple months ago, and that number was closer to 54%.

Morales is also striking out a lot less so far in July. He only has 6 strikeouts in 30 at bats so far this month. It is a small sample, but it really does feel like Morales is starting to make the changes necessary for him to get a big league call-up.

One thing that Morales has done in July that is not a new phenomenon is mash homers. He already has four homers this month, including a two homer game the other day. Morales has the most homers of any Nats prospect, and just has highly impressive raw power.

Morales has high end power to all fields. Despite not pulling the ball in the air that much, he is still able to access his pop. The 6’3 225 pound slugger consistently posts excellent exit velocities. With Morales getting the ball off the ground more, this recent power surge makes a ton of sense.

With these improvements to his process, the time is right for a call up. There is not an everyday role for Morales, but I think there are ways to create regular enough playing time. Calling up Morales and sending down Andres Chaparro just feels like a pretty straightforward move right now.

I get that the front office will want Morales to be playing more than Chaparro has, but it is not like Morales is some top 50 prospect who needs everyday reps. He can be Luis Garcia Jr’s platoon partner while also getting some starts at third base and DH every once in a while. 

Blake Butera has shown he can get creative to give guys playing time. He can do the same for Morales. Right now Andres Chaparro and his .157 batting average stick out like a sore thumb. Chaparro is getting pinch hit opportunities in big spots for the red hot Garcia and just not coming through.

I understand that Garcia is not great against lefties, but despite his reputation as a lefty masher, Chaparro has not hit them well either. It would be much easier to stomach taking Garcia out of games if Morales was the guy pinch hitting instead.

There is not a whole lot that Morales needs to prove at the AAA level. One potential reason they might be holding off on this move is that they would have to find a 40-man roster spot for Morales. However, the slugger is Rule-5 eligible this offseason, so they will have to put him on the 40-man soon anyways. There is also no shortage of potential DFA candidates on this roster.

With how Morales has hit all season, it only feels right to give him an opportunity. His surface level numbers are outstanding, and now he is improving some of the underlying stuff that may have been holding him back. It is time for Paul Toboni to give Yohandy Morales a shot, and I hope it happens as soon as possible. The young man has earned it in every possible way.