Mariners News: Alex Hoppe, Blas Castaño, and Juan Soto

Apr 1, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; New York Mets left fielder Juan Soto (22) reacts after hitting a solo home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

Good morning everyone!

The Mariners fell yet again to the A’s last night, dropping the contest 6-2 as the offense struggles to find its footing.

Where is your level of concern as we enter the late stages of April? Do you still think the team can turn it around and return to the caliber of play we expected them to during the preseason, or have you adjusted your expectations?

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

Wednesday Morning Links

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - APRIL 19: Evan Carter #32 of the Texas Rangers fields the ball against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on April 19, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Morning, all!

Jordan Montgomery is throwing bullpen sessions and is on pace to return to the rotation in July after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. Cody Bradford, on the other hand, hasn’t thrown in two weeks after experiencing tightness in his surgically repaired elbow.

Wyatt Langford left yesterday’s game against the Pirates in the fifth with a forearm strain.

Langford will be getting an MRI after he described what he felt as something he’s never felt before.

Kumar Rocker threw a season high six innings, retiring 12 of 13 batters faced after giving up a run with no outs in the first.

Josh Smith had a decent night at the plate yesterday but those have been few and far between for him this season.

Evan Carter had the play of the game when he robbed the Pirates of a home run in the fifth.

Carter’s highlight reel catch kept three Pirate runs off the board and the Rangers in the lead.

10 takeaways from the Celtics losing control in Game 2

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 21: Paul George #8 of the Philadelphia 76ers drives to the basket while guarded by Derrick White #9 of the Boston Celtics in the first quarter of a game at TD Garden on April 21, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) | Getty Images

#1 – A great start

The first minutes of Game 2 looked a lot like Game 1, as the Celtics exposed the Sixers’ defense with smart ball movement and a fierce offense. As always, they targeted the weakest defender and used the strengths of the Jays to get to the rim and break the defensive shell.

Out of the 11 made field goals in the first quarter, 8 were assisted. As the Celtics kept looking for mismatches, the Sixers sent help, and Jayson Tatum exposed it with his court vision. Note also on this play the smart screen from Neemias Queta, which makes the closeout on Sam Hauser almost impossible.

What really stood out in the first quarter was the Celtics’ willingness to play fast and not give the Sixers time to set their defense. But that is way easier when the Sixers are missing a lot of their threes—which, as we’ll see, wasn’t the case for the rest of the game.

#2 – A late collapse

The difference compared to the start of the game was obvious, and the play-by-play showed it well. Boston weren’t able to force misses from the Sixers, and the rebounding wasn’t as elite as it was in the first minutes. Then, the offense slowed down, and the Sixers were able to take away the paint from Boston.

In the last quarter, the Celtics took only three shots in the paint. They made all of them, but the problem came from outside shooting. In the last 12 minutes, their jump-shot efficiency dropped, with only two makes on 19 attempts.

But the Celtics not only didn’t shoot in the paint, they also weren’t able to generate paint touches that could create good looks. On this miss from Derrick White, it is pretty clear that the Celtics are trying to create a mismatch, but PG understands that this is bait to give space to White, and he closes out pretty well.

The offense being static and slow in the last quarter is also due to the inability to make stops on defense. The Sixers went crazy from three and reminded us of previous Game 2s…

#3 – The Game 2 old demons

Back in 2024, the Celtics dominated the Heat in a five-game series. But, like last night, the first round was tied after two games, as the Miami shooters went crazy from deep while Boston struggled offensively against the zone.

The Sixers didn’t use the same zone defense approach as the Heat last night, but the shooting definitely helped them steal this game from the Celtics. Could this be a sign? If the Celtics end up beating the Sixers 4–1, this might resonate even louder, suggesting that this 2026 team could be following the path of the 2024 team.

#4 – Couldn’t capitalize on rebounding

Entering the series, the Celtics knew they could rely on offensive rebounding when shots weren’t falling. With awful scoring efficiency last night (below 40% FG), the Celtics were aggressive on the offensive boards and collected 18 offensive rebounds.

But they couldn’t make the most of it.

Per cleaningtheglass.com, the Celtics scored only 0.8 points per possession on putback situations, far below their season average (1.16). On 18 offensive rebounds, this gap creates a big difference. The Celtics scored around 14 points on putbacks when it should have been more than 20.

In close games like this, especially when shots don’t fall, you must be more efficient on second chances.

#5 – Sixers better hedge defense

So what changed between the two games? It was more about execution than tactical changes from the Sixers. They kept playing that hedge coverage on the pick-and-roll to apply pressure and force the ball out of the ball handler’s hands, but they were more disciplined.

The third defender was much more active in the passing lanes to disrupt actions, and there was more presence in the paint. Overall, the Celtics had more problems getting inside against this improved execution.

Nonetheless, this coverage also creates a lot of open shots that the Celtics weren’t able to convert last night. If the Sixers keep going with that defensive principle, the Celtics still have a good chance to take the next game just by making the shots they usually make.

#6 – Boston drop coverage

On the other end, the Sixers punished the Celtics’ drop coverage with smart empty pick-and-rolls to remove potential help and find good spots for their ball handlers. The quickness and touch of both Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe were hard to deal with.

Drop coverage is a great approach to take away the rim, but the Sixers’ pull-up ability might be too strong to rely on it repeatedly. On top of that, they did a good job placing shooters one pass away from the action to punish the Celtics’ stunts.

However, it is worth noting that the drop coverage was still very efficient at protecting the rim, with one of the lowest rim frequencies and efficiencies of the season for the Sixers. However, rim pressure wasn’t the biggest issue.

#7 – Couldn’t deal with Maxey pull-ups

The Celtics were able to cut it to a two-point game, but this is when Maxey really raised his level and put the game away for the Sixers. As we saw, the drop coverage gives him space for pull-ups.

The young guard is used to these situations, with more than five attempts per game at 34% efficiency—and it showed last night. Here, he tricked White into the screen, rejected it, and found space to pull up in rhythm.

Then, on the next play, Maxey uses his speed to get into the action quickly before the defense is set. Because of that, White is too far to contest the pull-up, and Maxey creates a pocket to shoot.

Then, Maxey showed his improvements as a playmaker. He tricked Derrick White and Nikola Vucevic into thinking he was going right for another pull-up. But this time, he rejected the screen again and drove into a completely open paint.

In the clutch, Maxey did what the Celtics couldn’t: get into the paint and make threes.

#8 – How to defend PG?

The Sixers also used PG as a creator, and this could be another problem for the Celtics to solve. To start the game, he got a couple of post-up opportunities to get going from mid-range.

Once Payton Pritchard entered the game, he became a clear target in the post, as the Celtics guard can’t hold his ground against such a big wing. This forces rotations and creates space for the Sixers.

It will be interesting to see how the defensive approach evolves and who gets more minutes over the next few games—especially Baylor Scheierman.

#9 – More Baylor?

It is quite surprising to see only 11 minutes for Scheierman, considering what he can bring. He struggled a bit against VJ Edgecombe navigating screens, but so did Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard. Unlike them, however, he is less likely to be targeted as a mismatch while still providing spacing and connectivity.

With the quick guards and big wings the Sixers have, I would like to see more of him on the floor, both for what he brings offensively and defensively.

#10 – Beat on the turnovers

We mentioned before the series that this Sixers team was one of the best in the league at limiting turnovers while also being among the elite in defensive playmaking. We saw it last night, as they forced four more turnovers, and these extra possessions helped extend the gap over the course of the game.

The Celtics will have to be more disciplined offensively so the Sixers cannot turn defense into offense and generate easy baskets.

Blue Jays vs Angels Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Today's MLB Game

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This afternoon's matchup features the league's ERA leader in Jose Soriano and hits leader in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and I’m expecting the Toronto Blue Jays slugger to win the best-on-best battle.

Read more in my Blue Jays vs. Angels predictions and MLB picks below. 

Blue Jays vs Angels predictions

Blue Jays vs Angels best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

You’re getting great value on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +135 to go Over his bases total tonight against a pitcher with a 0.28 ERA. 

Vladdy is 2-for-2 with a walk in three plate appearances against Jose Soriano, and Soriano's most-used pitch is a sinker-ball, a pitch that Guerrero owns a .444 batting average with a 55% hard-hit rate against.

I’m expecting Guerrero Jr. to continue this trend as he's one of baseball’s best hitters.

Vladdy is hitting an MLB-best .353 this season, while riding a 12-game hitting streak, averaging 2.41 bases per contest in that stretch. 

Covers COVERS INTEL: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. owns a 1.117 OPS during this current 12-game hitting streak.

Blue Jays vs Angels same-game parlay (SGP)

I’ll continue to bank on the Toronto Blue Jays bats this afternoon. For the second leg of my SGP, I’ll take Daulton Varsho to go Over 0.5 hits. He’s 2-for-4 with a double and an RBI against Soriano throughout his career and has recorded a hit in eight of his last 10 games.

Lastly, I’ll also bet on Ernie Clement to record a hit as well. Clement has been a hitting machine, going Over his 0.5 total in 19 of 23 games this season, totaling 29 hits this year, which is only one shy of the league lead.

Additionally, he has recorded one hit against Soriano and three at-bats against him.

Blue Jays vs Angels SGP

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
  • Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
  • Ernie Clement Over 0.5 hits
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Get the best Jays ML odds at BET99 — every game.

Blue Jays vs Angels home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+510)

I’ll make this a half-unit wager. Varsho brings a lot of pop from the left side of the plate, and Soriano has given up a little bit more power to lefties than righties this season.

Albeit, it’s still not a whole lot of power as Soriano doesn’t slow for hard contact, allowing just one home run on the year.

However, Varsho does seem to see the sinker well out of the pitcher's hand, which is the most used pitch Soriano throws against lefties. The Jays outfielder owns a .438 batting average and a .688 slugging percentage against the pitch.

2026 Transparency record
  • Best bets: 5-17, -9.35 units
  • SGPs: 2-20, -12.5 units
  • HR picks: 4-18, -0.35 units

Blue Jays vs Angels odds

  • Moneyline: Toronto +135 | Los Angeles -160
  • Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-160) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Blue Jays vs Angels trend

The Blue Jays have cashed the first five innings team total Under in nine of their last 11 road games for +7.55 units and a 55% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Angels.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Angels and game info

LocationAngel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
DateWednesday, April 22, 2026
First pitch3:07 p.m. ET
TVFDSN W, SN
Blue Jays starting pitcherEric Lauer
(1-3, 7.13 ERA)
Angels starting pitcherJose Soriano
(5-0, 0.28 ERA)

Blue Jays vs Angels latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Angels weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Spurs vs. Trail Blazers player grades: Wembanyama goes down in Game Two loss

SAN ANTONIO, TX -APRIL 21: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs holds his head after falling to the court against the Portland Trailblazers in the first half of Game Two of the Western Conference First Round NBA Playoffs at Frost Bank Center on April 21, 2026 in San Antonio, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ronald Cortes/Getty Images) | Getty Images

In the playoffs, one play can chance the outlook of an entire series. For the San Antonio Spurs, that play was Victor Wembanyama smacking his face against the hardwood after tripping over Jrue Holiday. Wembanyama would play just 12 minutes in Game Two, and is now in concussion protocols, meaning he could miss more games.

The Spurs didn’t get blown away without Wembanyama. In fact, they built a 14-point fourth-quarter lead without him. However, a breakdown of late-game offense led to a 106-103 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 2. With the series tied at 1-1, the Spurs will head to Portland looking to reclaim home court advantage. The margins without Wembanyama are slim. FanDuel has the Spurs as a -120 favorite in Game Three. The Spurs will need the supporting cast to play even better in Portland if they don’t want to go down 2-1.

It was a mixed bag from San Antonio’s supporting cast on Tuesday. They’ll be the main focus for Game Two’s player grades. As a quick reminder, these grades are based on each player’s on-court performance, going beyond just the stat sheet. A “B” grade represents the average performance for an individual. If a player logs fewer than 5 minutes or plays only in garbage time, their grade will be incomplete.

Victor Wembanyama

12 minutes, 5 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 block, 2 turnovers, 1 foul, 1-for-3 shooting, 0-for-1 threes, -7

Wembanyama has to be graded on his 12 minutes of play, and not the impact his injury had on the team. The Blazers were doing a lot to deny him from getting the ball in the first half. They sniffed out the Spurs usual flex screens and dribble handoffs to get him the ball. When Wembanyama is back, San Antonio needs to get creative with how they get him the ball. The Spurs desperately need him if they want to win this series.

Grade: B

De’Aaron Fox

34 minutes, 17 points, 2 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, 2 steals, 4 fouls, 6-for-16 shooting, 1-for-3 threes, -14

Fox looked good for the majority of the game. He disappeared late in the game when San Antonio needed him most. The Spurs insisted on spamming dribble handoffs at the top of the key with Fox and Vassell, which the Blazers obviously knew was coming. They jumped everything and blew up the action, causing the Spurs offense to completely break down. Part of the blame for the bad late-game offense is on the coaching staff for a lack of creative offensive sets, and the other part falls on the Spurs guards for failing to create separation like they had earlier in the game.

A large part of the offensive load now falls on Fox’s shoulders. He has proven in the past that he can rise to the occasion. Whether or not he can do it against Portland could decide the series.

Grade: B-

Stephon Castle

38 minutes, 18 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 turnovers, 2 steals, 1 block, 2 fouls, 7-for-20 shooting, 2-for-6 threes, –1

Castle missed some key shots late, including an air-balled mid-range jumper that would have tied the game. He still seems to be forcing it a bit offensively. Castle is at his best when he’s able to get downhill and either score with power around the rim or get fouled. He got to the free throw line five times in Game Two, but only converted two free throws. It’s become clear that Portland’s strategy for guarding him with a big is working, as it’s keeping him out of the paint fairly consistently. The Spurs have to find a counter.

He’s doing a lot of work defensively trying to stay in front of Deni Advija, and held him to just 14 points in Game Two. Without Wembanyama roaming the paint, his role on the defensive end becomes even more important.

Grade: B

Julian Champagnie

27 minutes, 9 points, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 2 blocks, 1 turnover, 5 fouls, 3-for-4 shooting, 2-for-3 threes, -14

Champagnie once again hit some big shots. He attacked the rim for a contested layup and hit some big threes. He was in foul trouble for most of the game, finishing with 5 fouls. Champagnie has bene playing decent defense, but the Blazers are definitely hunting him on that end. They brought him into the action late trying to attack him in the half court.

Grade: B

Devin Vassell

34 minutes, 16 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, 1 turnover, 2 fouls, 6-for-16 shooting, 0-for-5 threes, -1

Vassell continues to be one of the Spurs’ best offensive players in the series. He maynnot have hit a three on Tuesday, but he is getting to his spots in the mid-range and hitting some tough shots. He was a major reason the team was able to build that big fourth-quarter lead. Vassell grabbed a ton of tough boards but missed the most important one, letting Jrue Holiday get around him for the go ahead put-back late in the game. Vassell was a few inches away from an A+ grade. His game-tying three-point attempt was oh-so-close to going down.

Grade: B

Dylan Harper

23 minutes, 10 points, 2 assists, 1 steal, 3 turnovers, 2 fouls, 4-for-7 shooting, +4

Harper looked much more confident in Game Two. He and Scoot Henderson were going at each other all game long, and talking smack while doing it. He showed great poise knocking down paint jumpers over the top of the Blazers’ bigs. He still is making a few too many rookie mistakes, including an odd double dribble while switching hands on a floater late in the game. He’s going to have the Scoot assignment when he is in the game, and the Spurs need to pick up his defensive effort to slow him down.

Grade: B

Luke Kornet

28 minutes, 10 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, 1 turnover, 2 fouls, 4-for-5 shooting, +11

Kornet now becomes a key player in this series. Without Wembanyama, he’s the Spurs’ only playable big man. He did exactly what San Antonio needed him to do on Tuesday. There wasn’t a huge drop-off when Wembanyama went out. In fact, the Spurs played better with Kornet on the floor. He stood his ground around the rim and was active on the glass, grabbing 5 offensive boards.

Strategically, Kornet’s starting changes a lot for Portland. They can’t just put a big man on Castle and have him sag into the paint, because Kornet will hurt him inside and on the offensive glass. The real question becomes what the Spurs do to back him up.

Grade: A

Harrison Barnes

15 minutes, 4 points, 1 rebound, 1-for-3 shooting, 0-for-1 threes, +13

Barnes also exited the game with an injury late. It’s been reported that he will be back for Game 3. The Spurs will need all of the big bodies they can get without Wembanyama. San Antonio looked more under control with Barnes in the game. He made some smart decisions, including following his own shot and getting fouled after an offensive board. Now the Spurs just need him to hit some outside shots.

Grade:B

Keldon Johnson

18 minutes, 7 points, 4 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 steals, 1 turnover, 3 fouls, 3-for-7 shooting, 1-for-3 threes, +7

Johnson hasn’t made the same impact he did in the regular season. Where is the paint scoring we’ve seen all year? He’s getting to the rim, just struggling to finish. There seems to be a tentativeness from Johnson on both ends that didn’t exist earlier in the year. The Spurs need more aggression from KJ, especially now that they could be without their best offensive player.

Grade: C

Carter Bryant

12 minutes, 7 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 fouls, 3-for-5 shooting, 1-for-2 threes, -13

Bryant played well in his 12 minutes. His role is now crucial to the Spurs’ chances in this series. He is San Antonio’s de facto backup big man, since Mason Plumlee and Bismack Biyombo have not proven to be able to provide much value off the bench. Bryant spaces the floor and provides excellent energy as a small-ball 5. The problem is… he’s not a center. Especially not on a playoff team. Portland is going to go right at Bryant in small-ball lineups. It’s a tough position for Bryant to be in, but so far, he has risen to the challenge.

Grade: B+

Inactives: Harrison Ingram, David Jones-Garcia, Emanuel Miller

Where to watch Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons Game 2 NBA playoffs: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Wednesday, April 22

The Detroit Pistons will try to even their first-round playoff series in Game 2 against the Orlando Magic. Paolo Banchero scored 23 points as Orlando took Game 1 in Detroit. The over/under for Game 2 is set at 218.5, with Detroit favored by 8.5 points on the spread.

  • Spread: Detroit Pistons -8.5

  • Moneyline: Detroit Pistons -400 (76.6%) / Orlando Magic +310 (23.4%)

  • Over/Under: 218.5

Game 1:Magic 112, Pistons 101
Game 2: Wed., April 22, at Detroit (7 p.m., ESPN)
Game 3: Sat., April 25, at Orlando (1 p.m., Peacock)
Game 4: Mon. April 27, at Orlando (time and network TBD)
*Game 5: Wed., April 29, at Detroit (time and network TBD)
*Game 6: Fri., May 1, at Orlando (time and network TBD)
*Game 7: Sun., May 3, at Detroit (time and network TBD)

*if necessary

Knicks vs. Hawks: 3 keys for New York in Game 3 of first-round playoff series

A playoff series is never easy for the Knicks. The team hasn’t played in a series that went fewer than six games since the 2023 first round against the Cleveland Cavaliers. After blowing a 12-point fourth quarter lead in a 107-106 Game 2 loss to the Atlanta Hawks, that streak has a good chance of continuing. And the Knicks have a variety of issues to address.

With the series tied, 1-1, New York will be in Atlanta for Game 3 on Thursday night. 

Here are the keys to the game...

Stagger-less

Head coach Mike Brown’s decision to not stagger Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson has proven to be a fatal mistake through two games. Units with four bench players and starter OG Anunoby were passable during the first game, but Monday night’s loss was a different story.

In Game 2, lineups without Towns and Brunson played 11 minutes and 22 seconds together. That’s too long in a playoff game to not have an offensive initiator or a player capable of bending the defense. The Knicks have been outscored by 13.5 points per 100 possessions in 20 minutes with both of their All-Stars on the bench, according to PBP Stats.

Though it didn’t seem like Brown felt the decision to not stagger the minutes of his two stars greatly affected New York’s loss, continuing this strategy would be a critical mistake. The Knicks were already burned once with the decision. Trotting out lineups at this point without either Towns or Brunson would be borderline malpractice. 

Less involved 

In two years with the Knicks, the number one storyline for Towns has been the inability of the offense to function when the All-Star center is defended by a wing. Towns scored 18 points on just 12 shots in Game 2. He was limited to just two shot attempts in the fourth quarter.  

Apr 18, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) is guarded by Atlanta Hawks forward Onyeka Okongwu (17) during the first quarter of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden.
Apr 18, 2026; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) is guarded by Atlanta Hawks forward Onyeka Okongwu (17) during the first quarter of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

There were several times Towns wasn’t involved in the offense, as wings like Dyson Daniels and Jonathan Kuminga guarded him throughout the game. When Towns isn’t involved, New York’s offense bogs down and leans too much on Brunson. On nights when Brunson is flourishing, it can work, but the Knicks’ All-Star guard was 10-for-26 from the field on Monday night.

As mentioned before, this was supposed to be the series for Towns to thrive. The Hawks are extremely small, playing just one traditional center in Onyeka Okongwu. New York should allow Towns to initiate more of the offense at the top of the key, where he can excel as a passer in off-ball split cut actions.

Vintage performer

New York has largely done a good defensive job in the first two games on the Hawks. Atlanta’s top two regular season scorers -- Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker -- were held to a combined 26 points on 9-for-24 shooting.

But 13-year veteran CJ McCollum picked up the slack, torching the Knicks for 32 points in Game 2. 

The 34-year old guard has been defended by Brunson for much of the series. Even when the Knicks have moved Brunson to another player, Atlanta has worked to get the Knicks point guard switched on him over and over again. The Knicks waited too late to throw a trap McCollum’s way in Game 2, and by the middle of the second half, he caught fire.

McCollum also scored 26 points in Game 1. His tight handle and ability to pull up in the midrange makes him a tough player to defend.

How the Knicks guard McCollum the rest of the series will be interesting. Will they trap? Will they blitz? Can they avoid switching?

The offense is the bigger issue, but New York has to try to limit McCollum going forward.

Game 25 Preview: Tigers look to even series up with Brewers

The Detroit Tigers returned to Comerica Park — where they had won eight of their first nine games — on Tuesday night to open up a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers. Unfortunately, things did not go quite as planned, as the visitors spanked the Ole English D to the tune of a 12-4 defeat.

Keider Montero was not awful, but his defense and the bullpen failed him — well, except for Jake Rogers, who was the only hurler to not allow a run. But that game is over and in the books, and it is time for the Tigers to turn the page.

On Wednesday, right-hander Casey Mize will take the mound for the Motor City Kitties while fellow righty Chad Patrick gets the call for the Brew Crew. The former has not faced Milwaukee since 2024, when he nearly matched Montero’s line from last night to take the loss in a 5-4 final; this will be the first time that the latter has ever thrown against Detroit.

Take a look below at how they match up.

Detroit Tigers (12-12) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (13-9)

Time (ET): 6:40 p.m.
Place: Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan
SB Nation Site:Brew Crew Ball
Media: Detroit SportsNetMLB.TVTigers Radio Network

Game 25: RHP Casey Mize (1-1, 2.78 ERA) vs. RHP Chad Patrick (1-0, 0.95 ERA)

PlayerGIPK%BB%GB%FIPfWAR
Mize422.226.67.434.43.130.6
Patrick419.012.09.337.33.970.2

MIZE

PATRICK

Fantasy Baseball Do Not Drop List: Holding Ceddanne Rafaela, Jack Leiter, more

We're a month into the baseball season, and fantasy managers are starting to lose patience with their slow starters. We need results, and we need them now. But hold your horses, some slow starters don't deserve to be dropped.

As a general rule, I still think it's too early to drop players you drafted in the first 10-12 rounds. Yes, that includes Jeff Hoffman and Devin Williams. If you want to shift guys to the bench to "teach them a lesson" or save your ratios, that's fine. However, I would still hold onto those early-round players unless there was an injury. When it comes to the players you drafted later, that's another story, and now is the time of the season when you can think about moving on if there are attractive waiver wire options in your league.

Before you do that, though, make sure to read this article, where I'll highlight a few hitters and pitchers who are off to slow starts and are being dropped in a lot of formats, but are players I'd hold. I created leaderboards to highlight solid underlying metrics that make me believe these players can still turn it around. Let's dig in to find out who we're talking about and why.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Sam Antonacci, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Bryan Baker are among the 12 newcomers in this week’s update.

Fantasy Baseball Hitters to Hold

For hitters, I used my standard pre-season and mid-season leaderboard that helps me identify hitter targets. It looks at hard-hit rate, zone contact, swinging strike rate (SwStr%), and barrel rate to see who is not swinging and missing often, making consistent contact in the zone, and making consistently hard contact. For right now, I did not use barrel rate as part of this equation because I think it's a bit too early in the season. For this article, I removed all hitters who had a wRC+ over 100 because that would mean they have been above-average hitters. I then removed all hitters who were below league-average in the three criteria we're using for this article, and that gave us a list of players who are technically not producing but have the underlying metrics to suggest that they will start to.

NameTeamwRC+HardHit%Z-Contact%SwStr%
Wyatt LangfordTEX78.299839280.3770490.872340.110759
Tyler SoderstromATH86.961360.4516130.8476190.110803
Pete AlonsoBAL96.571447940.5636360.840.117207
Roman AnthonyBOS91.883304270.4807690.8372090.101648
Alex BregmanCHC81.243850.4583330.8818180.059113

I'm just going to briefly start with the players you know you're definitely not cutting. However, they qualified on this list, so I wanted to list them just to show that the underlying metrics are OK and there doesn't seem to be any immediate cause for concern. Yes, there may be things going on underneath the hood that could lower our expectations a bit, but the season isn't even one month old, so I'm not panicking on layers you drafted this early on. Sadly, Wyatt Langford was hurt on Tuesday night, so just keep an eye on his injury status over at the Rotoworld Player News page.

NameTeamwRC+HardHit%Z-Contact%SwStr%
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS112.82187770.3913040.8305080.113281
Cam SmithHOU111.18140.4684310.8551630.129141
Jose FernandezARI102.3394020.4444440.8666670.114894
Iván HerreraSTL102.01930580.5161290.9555560.058974
Trent GrishamNYY98.498954680.5769230.9436620.05625
Evan CarterTEX98.448150.4081630.8764040.081818
Chase MeidrothCHW98.375129150.4426230.8915660.058011
Daylen LileWSN97.324478180.4078950.909910.117845
Miguel VargasCHW96.465413020.4426230.848740.06117
Brandon MarshPHI92.484430.4615380.8933330.101563
Edouard JulienCOL91.933710.4615380.8840580.080769
Jung Hoo LeeSFG86.170924570.4029850.975610.046647
Kyle KarrosCOL76.988360450.4186050.8904110.098039
Mike YastrzemskiATL75.605704150.4347830.8846150.09622
Luis García Jr.WSN67.748050060.4385960.9729730.064
Marcell OzunaPIT55.962223480.4117650.8928570.11315
Bo BichetteNYM53.898560220.4285710.9019610.110215
Jakob MarseeMIA47.827239760.3709680.9587630.042654
Bryson StottPHI46.711991130.50.9615380.070248
Alec BohmPHI16.42450510.3833330.8831170.068259

In short, if a hitter is on this list, I'm inclined to give them a little more leash. Their qualifying for this article means that they are making better-than-average contact in the zone, not swinging and missing too much, and also making hard contact when they do make contact. Yes, if you're in a shallow league, there are certainly players on this list that you could move on from (Alec Bohm, Eduoard Julien, Kyle Karros, Brandon Marsh) for a hot hitter on the waiver wire, but each of these players at least still has some redeeming value. I'm going to focus on a few of them in more detail, who I think deserve to stay on your rosters. Last week,I also mentioned adding Miguel Vargas because of his underlying metrics, and he appeared on this list as well, which might be a bit of a sign. Ivan Herrera also appeared in that article.

Ceddanne Rafaela - 2B/OF, BOS

Technically, Rafaela shouldn't be on this list because his wRC+ is over 100, so he has been an above-average hitter this year. However, I'm getting tons of questions about whether or not people should drop him in fantasy leagues because he has one home run and no stolen bases. On one hand, I get it. He has stolen 19 and 20 bases the last two years, so getting a zero there is not what you signed up for. However, he didn't become slow; he's just never been an efficient basestealer. He made some improvements last year and has, according to Statcast, been taking shorter leads so far this season, which may be why he was caught stealing twice. I think this is just some small sample size anomaly, and I'd still expect the 17-18 steals most projection systems have for him.

Another part of the reason you should hold onto Rafaela is that he's improving as a hitter. He's shortened his swing a bit this season and is not swinging hard as often as he did last year. That has allowed him to square up the baseball more and cut his swinging strike rate by 3%. He's also been far more patient at the plate. My counterargument to that is that he's being a bit too patient in the zone and taking too many called strikes on pitches he could do damage on, which is why his home run totals are low. The barrel rate and hard-hit rate are in line with last year, so I think this is a 25-year-old who is making an adjustment in his approach and just trying to find the right levels for him. With the team around him also struggling, he may not be looking to make "careless" mistakes. However, the underlying tools are all here, and the process is improving, so I think we're going to see results coming soon.

Cam Smith - OF, HOU

Cam Smith is another player who technically doesn't belong on this list, but he's one of the most dropped hitters on Yahoo this week because he's 0-for-19 over his last five games. I know that's bad, but we have to exercise a little bit of patience in the early going with young top prospects who are still evolving as players. Smith was electric to start the season. Then he wasn't, so we have to find the most likely "true talent" level for him. He has an 47% hard-hit rate and 16% barrel rate. His 12.9% SwStr% is below league-average, but is in line with what he did last year, and his zone contact is league-average. So we have a young player who is getting pitched outside the zone more often and is offering at those pitches too much. But, when pitchers do some into the zone, he's making enough contact and making authoritative contact, all while showing a 3.5 mph increase in bat speed. We're not even asking Cam Smith to demonstrate a new skill; we're just asking him to get back closer to last year's chase rate. Even just getting that could get us closer to the breakout we thought we were getting in the first two weeks of the season, and there is always the potential for further growth considering how young he is.

Trent Grisham - OF, NYY

Yes, last year was probably an outlier career year for Grisham, and I'm sure the Yankees wish they hadn't given him a $21 million qualifying offer. That being said, Grisham is not this bad. His chase rate is better than last year, his 93% zone contact is elite, his 5.6% SwStr% is minuscule, his exit velocities are better than last year, and his 57% hard-hit rate would be a career high. Grisham is getting attacked inside a little bit more than he was last year, and there's a chance he's been impacted by some of the cold weather lingering in the Northeast. He's also sporting a .163 BABIP, a .242 xBA, and a .474 xSLG that are far better than the surface-level results he's gotten. As the weather heats up in New York, I think Grisham will as well, and it wouldn't surprise me if he hits about .230-.240 from here on out with 20+ home runs.

Jose Fernandez - SS, ARI

People were so ready to move on from Fernandez after he didn’t match the production of his two-homer debut, but we have to have more patience than that. An injury to Carlos Santana has opened more at-bats for Fernandez, and he is now an everyday player in Arizona. He hasn’t hit a home run since his debut, but the tools you were enamored with - his elite bat speed and sprint speed - still exist. He also has a 42% hard-hit rate and a league-average swinging strike rate. Yes, he's chasing out of the zone more than we'd like to see, and pitchers will continue to pitch him there until he learns. However, an 89% zone contact rate, which his hard-hit numbers and pull rates should begin to lead to solid production. As it stands, he hasn't been bad, hitting .297 with 11 runs scored and nine RBI in 64 plate appearances. I'm not expecting some 20-home run season here, but I think he could be a 15/10 guy if he continues to play regularly, and that's worth holding onto in deeper formats.

Jung Hoo Lee - OF, SF

Lee was off to an abysmal start to the season, but hopefully you've held onto him because he has hits in eight of his last 10 games, going 15-for-41 (.366) with one home run, five runs, and four RBI. That's probably enough reason to hold onto him, but his exit velocities are up two mph from last year, his hard-hit rate is up 7% from last year (still just under league-average), and his SwStr% is just 5%. He makes elite swing decisions and is hitting the ball harder than he did last year. He's also using the whole field more often, so I'm not sure he's going to hit more than 10 home runs, but the batting average should be .270 or better while hitting in the middle of the Giants' lineup. If he can also duplicate his 10 steals from last season, that's going to be a boring but solid player for you all year.

Bryson Stott - 2B/SS, PHI

It has not been a strong start to the season for Stott, who is hitting .210/.269/.242 with just two extra-base hits. He is also swinging outside of the zone 11% more often and making less contact than he ever has outside of the zone. Despite those issues, he still has a 95% zone contact rate, a 6.6% SwSt%, and the quality of contact he is making has been good. His hard-hit rate is 50%, which is up 20.5% from last year, the 4th-biggest improvement of any hitter in baseball. His average exit velocity is up two mph, his bat speed is up one mph, and he is pulling the ball 12% more. His attack direction, which measures the horizontal angle of the bat's sweet spot at the point of contact, has gone from two degrees towards the opposite field to four degrees to the pull side, which is tied for the 4th-biggest change in baseball. So what we're getting is a player who is making elite levels of contact, hitting the ball harder than ever, and making a conscious change to pull the ball more. He's also a player who has stolen at least 24 bases in three straight seasons. All of that should entice us. The walk rate is down, and the power hasn't shown up yet, so I understand if you wanted to be more cautious in OBP or OPS leagues, but I think a good stretch of production is coming for Stott.

Bo Bichette - SS/3B, NYM

Look, Bichette qualified for this list, but I don't love what we're seeing. If we start with the good, he has a 42% hard-hit rate, a 91% zone contact rate, and continues to swing and miss better than league average. He also has a .291 xBA, which is far more attractive than his .219 average and a .274 BABIP that is well below his .337 career mark. However, he has also dropped his pull rate 7%, and he was never somebody who pulled the ball much to begin with. His groundball rate has also jumped to 53%, which is going to limit a lot of authoritative contact. Some of this could be attributed to learning a new defensive position or trying to earn his contract, but this is the profile of a hitter who will hit 8-10 home runs and hasn't stolen more than five bases since 2022. That being said, the batting average should be way higher, and Bichette is a good enough hitter that he could be sticking with an opposite-field approach to let the ball travel until he starts to see some hits consistently fall in. I think this entire Mets offense is going to wake up at some point, and Bichette will join them.

Jakob Marsee - OF, MIA

Marsee is fascinating to me. How is he hitting .176 when we know that he has high-end speed, and he also has a 96% zone contact rate and just a 4% swinging strike rate? That's the profile of a guy who should be closer to Chandler Simpson than what we're getting. Part of it could be that Marsee has increased his flyball rate almost 10% from what we saw last year. That's probably not what you want to see from a player who had an 89 mph average exit velocity last year, but good speed. Yet, I don't know if that's an intentional approach. Yes, Marsee's bat is a touch steeper at the contact point than last season, but his overall swing tilt is actually flatter. I don't really believe he's trying to lift as much as he has been. It may be more that he's being pitched up in the zone 10% more often than last year because pitchers are trying to get him to elevate or swing and miss. It's just an adjustment that he needs to make as a hitter. Considering he has an established track record of having a great understanding of the strike zone, I think it's an adjustment that he can make. He's also already stolen eight bases despite being on first base only 27 times this season. I think the hits are going to start to fall, and the stolen bases will continue to explode.

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers to Hold

Much like with the hitters, I automatically deleted any starting pitcher who had thrown 20 innings this season and had an ERA that was below 4.03, since that's the league average mark right now. I then removed pitchers who have been worse than league average when it comes to Stuff+, Swinging Strike Rate (SwSr%), and K-BB%. This should have given us a list of pitchers who had below-average ERAs but had done a good job of missing bats and shown plus raw stuff. I then also removed any stragglers who had poor SIERAs because I think that helped us to further lock in on pitchers who have been pitching better than their results.

NameTeamIPERAWHIPSIERAK-BB%Stuff+SwStr%
Max MeyerMIA253.961.243.7803101990.15315395.380412980.144186
Freddy PeraltaNYM26.24.0500003861.0875001043.7259997320.16071498.13369330.126609
Trevor RogersBAL28.24.0813954391.3255814254.0184587710.13934497.8341250.120253
Reid DetmersLAA28.24.0813957111.0813954453.4050521550.191667106.71581630.133056
MacKenzie GoreTEX264.1538461541.1923076923.2054771570.212963100.93151240.114607
Kyle BradishBAL254.681.84.032711740.13043599.782303370.112798
Tanner BibeeCLE24.14.8082194291.5205483.9607637490.130841101.06153850.128505
Jack LeiterTEX20.14.8688527631.4754099283.6676409770.166667104.219360.141333
Shane BazBAL224.9090909091.5454545454.2838551930.11340298.558983960.096257
Aaron NolaPHI26.25.0625001211.4625000353.6342588470.165217104.75697480.107865
Nathan EovaldiTEX26.25.0625001211.5375000373.3756748860.17213195.076583140.147727
Mike BurrowsHOU26.26.7500006441.6875001614.0825158860.13114893.316837420.126667
Ryne NelsonARI20.26.9677427931.4516130824.3903943010.114583108.84005410.115903
Garrett CrochetBOS247.8751.6253.4675920850.181034111.40341920.107477
Jesús LuzardoPHI22.27.9411771.4558825162.4500323670.255102112.33317590.151832

Much like with the hitters, some of these guys you know you're not cutting (Garrett Crochet, Freddy Peralta, Jesus Luzardo, Kyle Bradish, Nathan Eovaldi), but they have not met our expectations so far this season. Eovaldi's Stuff+ is a little bit lower than we'd like to see, but he has a long track record for us to fall back on. I should also note that, as of this publishing, FanGraphs has not yet changed Kyle Bradish's stat line from 4/15 to remove two earned runs that were charged to him on Weston Wilson's (now) error. That correction should lower his ERA to 3.96 and give him an above-average ERA.

Reid Detmers - Los Angeles Angels

I covered Detmers in some detail this Monday whenI went over his pitch mix changes in my streaming starting pitchers article, so this section may be a little more granular than some of the others. Before his start last week against the Yankees, Detmers said that he “found” his changeup grip. He has been using the changeup again earlier in the season, but it was functioning more as a splitter. This new changeup grip led to a pitch that was over three mph faster than what we had seen before. It also had 2.5 inches more drop and about two inches more run. Detmers seems to have better command of this changeup, despite it having more movement. His zone rate on it improved from 41.7% in his first three starts to 57.1% in his last two, and his strike rate on the changeup jumped from 62.5% in the first three starts to 78.6% in his last two. That has enabled him to keep it lower in the zone more consistently, with a 33% low location rate in his first three starts, and a 46.4% rate in his second. That could also be the reason he has started to use it more in two-strike counts. He used his changeup 25% of the time in two-strike counts in his first three starts, but that has exploded to 39.3% over his last two starts. It has a 36.4% PutAway Rate in that stretch, which measures how often a two-strike pitch leads to a strikeout. 

Again, we're dealing with a small sample size here, but Detmers, with his new changeup, has a 3.46 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 27.5% strikeout rate, 32.8% CSW, and 15.3% SwStr% in two starts against the Blue Jays and Yankees. That's enough to add him in most league types.

Jack Leiter - Texas Rangers

I get that people are fed up with Leiter. He looked so good at the start of the season, and then he was so uninspiring in his next two starts. Well, that is just a bit of who Jack Leiter is. However, we should also remember that his last two starts were in Los Angeles against the Dodgers and in Sacramento, which is one of the worst parks for pitchers. Overall this season, Leiter has been far less fastball-dependent, which we like to see. The start in Sacramento was the only one in which he used his four-seam fastball more than 39% of the time. The addition of the cutter has been a solid pitch for him as a supplemental part of his pitch mix, his changeup has taken a small step forward, and his slider is missing more bats at a slightly slower speed with more vertical movement. He has the fifth-best Stuff+ of any pitcher on this list and the fourth-best SwStr%. Yes, there will be some volatility, but this is a 26-year-old who is deepening his pitch mix and getting more whiffs. I'd rather bench him for his tough matchups than outright cut him.

Shane Baz - Baltimore Orioles

I get more questions about dropping Shane Baz than anybody else, but I keep telling people to hold. I know you see a 5.08 ERA and a strikeout rate that has dipped to 18%. I know he has a career 4.32 ERA that doesn't match the hype you've been sold. I get all of that. I'm just saying that he's a better pitcher than this, and the underlying metrics support it. For starters, his 4.42 SIERA and 4.39 xFIP are better than the surface-level ERA. He still has a 100 Stuff+, which is league average and is allowing just a 38% hard-hit rate. I know the swings-and-misses haven't been there and, after his start on Tuesday, his SwStr% is far too low for this list, but I kept him on here because I see the path forward.

This season, he's leaned into his cutter far more, throwing it 42% of the time against righties after using it just 14.3% of the time against them last year, which was his first year throwing the pitch. The cutter now has a 14% SwStr% and an elite 36% PutAway Rate against righties, but he's using it mainly early in the count. He has a solid 22% strikeout rate against righties this season, and they're not hitting the ball hard. I think he could increase the impact of his cutter by doing one of two things. First is that he's throwing his four-seamer away from righties more often and using it up in the zone less. I'd like to see him go back to trying to jam righties inside with the four-seamer, which will set up that cutter more in two-strike counts. Also, Baz threw a sinker in Tuesday's start. It wasn't a good one, but it highlights that he and the Orioles are probably having the same conversations and thinking that a sinker inside to righties would also set up the cutter away a bit more. I like that development if it comes to fruition.

Against lefties, he still has a league-average 11.7% SwStr%, but they're making harder contact and not striking out as much. The four-seam usage has been similar, and he's not really throwing the cutter to lefties much, so I think there are two issues at play here. One is that Baz's changeup is struggling. The zone rate and strike rate on the pitch are way down, so he's not using it as much against lefties. Last season, it was a pitch he used 64% of the time early in counts and was able to get ahead with. That set up his curveball, which was a great two-strike pitch for him. Now that he's using the changeup less, he has to use his curve more often, which means he's not saving it for when he's ahead in the count as much, and it hasn't been as impactful overall as it was before. If Baz can get his changeup back, I'd imagine he reverts right back to his previous approach, and I see no reason why that changeup won't eventually come back to his previous levels.

Mike Burrows - Houston Astros

I get it, you are done with Mike Burrows. I don't blame you, and in a 12-team league, I understand moving on if there's an attractive waiver wire option, but I don't think you HAVE to. There are some issues we'll get to with Burrow, but he has also been incredibly unlucky to start the season. He has an egregious .378 BABIP. According to Statcast, he also has the worst defense behind him, with the lowest Outs Above Average behind him among all starting pitchers. He's given up just a 35% hard-hit rate and a 5% barrel rate, which might be why he has a 4.09 SIERA and 4.24 xFIP. Both of which are much better than his 6.75 ERA.

Even though he is having issues getting strikeouts, he has a 12.7% SwStr%, which is well above average, so what's going on? Well, for starters, his Stuff+ is not great, and that does highlight a larger issue that he's covering for. His fastballs simply aren't that good, but his changeup is elite. So you'd be surprised to know that, despite having an elite changeup, it's lefties that are doing the most damage against him this season. Against righties, he has a 26.3% strikeout rate, an 18.2% SwStr%, a 31.5% CSW, and just a 2% barrel rate allowed. His changeup has been an elite two-strike pitch to righties, perhaps because he also has the threat of the slider. Against lefties, he doesn't have a great "out" pitch, even though his slider has had a well-above average PutAway rate. He simply doesn't use it often with two strikes. To me, this is a sequencing issue. Last year, his changeup had a 27% SwStr% and lefties and carved them up with two strikes. It's a legitimately good pitch. There is no reason it should be performing this poorly, so the Astros need to figure out why lefties are having so much more success this season. Is he not setting it up the same way? It's added some run but lost drop this season, so maybe the shape is tipping them off? I think we're a small tweak away from a strong run of production.

Ryne Nelson - Arizona Diamondbacks

The Ryne Nelson argument is simple, so we'll end with that. His last start was awful, allowing eight runs on eight hits while getting just one out against the Blue Jays. If we remove that, then he has a 3.54 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 22.1% strikeout rate in 20.1 innings over four starts. Now, I know removing a start is a lazy way of doing analysis, but the point is just to show that we are letting one start drastically impact our opinion of Nelson. Up until that point, in four starts against the Orioles, Dodgers, Mets, and Braves, Nelson still has an elite four-seam fastball and has located his slider and cutter well enough to lefties this year to eliminate any splits issues. Teams are going to hunt his four-seamer, but it's not like the Blue Jays were hitting home runs or crushing the ball around the yard. It was a lot of weak contact that continued to find holes. Nelson is never going to be a huge strikeout arm, so I do think he's a fringe guy to roster in 12-team leagues, but I think his ratios are going to wind up being just fine, and he will pitch deep enough to give you wins on a decent team.

MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Prop Bets, Picks, Parlay & Odds for Wednesday, April 22

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It's a home-run, slump-busting day for me as last week's heater has turned into a cold snap. That's the world of betting on daily home runs, where one multi-hit day changes the tide.

There are 12 starting pitchers today who rank in the Bottom 50 in BlastContact% this year, but with very few great-hitting settings, fading pitchers and bullpens today might be the best approach for MLB player props

Despite one run scored last night, I'm going back to Coors and hoping Fernando Tatis can snap his own HR drought, and fading one of the worst BlastCon% pitchers in baseball indoors in Miami for a big price. 

These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, April 22.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HROdds
Padres Fernando Tatis Jr.+400
Marlins Otto Lopez+1120
💲Today's HR parlay+30863

Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400)

I had this start circled for five days. Tomoyuki Sugano owns a sub-4.00 ERA, but his xERA is closer to 8.00.

He’s been wildly lucky while allowing the eighth-worst BlastCon% among starters, and he’s posted one of the worst HR/9 rates over the last two seasons.

In short, the San Diego Padres lineup is a great place to look for dingers on Wednesday at Coors Field, especially with poor hitting weather elsewhere.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is +400 to go deep with a fair price around +330, per Covers projections powered by THE BAT. He’s the best +EV home run on the board this morning.

It’s surprising he hasn’t gone deep yet, but that’s why the price is discounted. He leads the team with a 27.5% BlastCon% rate, and it feels like a matter of time before that breaks through.

  • Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Rockies.TV, Padres.TV

Otto Lopez (+1120)

I’m going four-digit hunting with the No. 2 hitter in the Miami Marlins lineup in a controlled environment with a plus-plus matchup.

Kyle Leahy has the second-worst BlastCon% among MLB starters this year, and it caught up to him last time out when Houston took him deep three times indoors. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, he ranks dead last in BlastCon%.

Miami isn’t known for home-run power, but Otto Lopez stands out at a massive price. He’s being priced like a No. 8 hitter with no pop, but he’s among the team leaders in power metrics and sits well above league average in key home-run indicators.

This may be the best pitching matchup for dingers on the board. The St. Louis Cardinals could also be without key bullpen arms, and they already rank 29th in xFIP among all MLB bullpens, adding to the appeal.

  • Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Cardinals.TV
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
  • HR picks: 5-38, -7.4 units

Today’s HR parlay

Padres Fernando Tatis Jr.Bet Now
+30863
Marlins Otto Lopez
Reds Shane Langeliers

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, April 22

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It’s another busy day across the big leagues, with 15 games on the schedule. My MLB player props analysis will include Nico Hoerner, Munetaka Murakami, and Shohei Ohtani. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, April 22. 

Best MLB player props today

Player PickOdds
Cubs Nico HoernerOver 0.5 RBI+180
White Sox Munetaka MurakamiOver 0.5 RBI+150
Dodgers Shohei OhtaniOver 6.5 strikeouts-122

Nico Hoerner Over 0.5 RBI (+180)

Nico Hoerner has been red-hot lately. The Chicago Cubs infielder is batting .326 overall and .347 in the month of April. He’s logged an RBI in three of his last five contests, driving in four during that span. 

In fact, Hoerner is currently tied for third in the league in that category, registering 22 RBI already.

He’ll face Kyle Backhus tonight after going 2-for-5 with a home run and an RBI last night.

  • Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: Marquee, NBCS-Philadelphia

Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 RBI (+150)

Hoerner may be hot, but I don’t believe anyone is swinging the bat like Munetaka Murakami is right now. The slugger has eight RBI across his last four games, and he’s also gone deep in four straight appearances. He can't be stopped.

He was 3-for-5 in Tuesday’s series opener against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a home run, an RBI, and three hits. Murakami has six of his 17 RBI against lefties, and Eduardo Rodriguez takes the hill tonight for Arizona.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: CHSN, Dbacks.TV

Shohei Ohtani Over 6.5 strikeouts (-122)

Shohei Ohtani takes the hill tonight against the San Francisco Giants, whom he’s dominated in the past.

They’re hitting just .176 against him, and he’s struck out 18 in 51 at-bats. It’s common knowledge that Ohtani has overpowering stuff, and he racked up 10 Ks in his last start against the Mets. 

While San Fran is around the middle of the pack in team strikeouts, they’re swinging and missing a lot more lately, striking out nearly 10 times per game across their previous three contests. Also, Ohtani has collected 16 Ks in 12 innings of work at Dodger Stadium in 2026.

  • Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: SportsNet-Los Angeles, NBCS-Bay Area
Quinn Allen's 2026 Transparency Record
  • Prop picks: 3-6, -1.78 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Minor League Recap: Justin Campbell continues to dominate High-A

Columbus Clippers Travis Bazzana (12) throws the ball to first base during home opener at Huntington Park on Tuesday, March 31, 2026, in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Columbus Clippers 5, Buffalo Bisons 2

Clippers improve to 12-10

Petey Halpin and Stuart Fairchild carried the Clippers offense on Tuesday, both garnering a pair of hits including a double.

Travis Bazzana stayed hot as well, going 1-for-2 with three walks and a stolen base to reach base safely four times. Kahlil Watson walked twice and stole a base and Cooper Ingle also went 1-for-3 with two walks and a stolen base to keep his OPS sizzling at 1.357.

The pitching was the real story here. Logan Allen had his best start of the season, allowing one run (zero earned) on two hits with seven strikeouts and two walks in 4.2 innings of work.

Steven Perez struck out three in 1.1 scoreless innings. Andrew Walters gave up one run in his inning and Cody Heuer and Franco Aleman locked things down with a scoreless inning apiece. Aleman struck out the side to earn his first save and maintain a 0.00 ERA on the young season.

Akron RubberDucks 0, Bowie Baysox 7

RubberDucks fall to 10-6

Fresh off the heels of throwing a combined no-hitter, Akron almost got no hit on Tuesday. The RubberDucks managed just one hit while being shutout.

Jose Devers had the lone hit for Akron. No one reached base safely twice.

A solid start from Khal Stephen was wasted. Stephen gave up two runs on three hits with two walks in 5.0 innings while striking out five.

Hunter Stanley had a scoreless 1.2 innings and Reid Johnson put the game out of reach by allowing five runs (four earned) in just one inning of relief.

Lake County Captains 4, West Michigan Whitecaps 2

Captains improve to 8-8

Justin Campbell continues to shine brilliantly. The towering right-hander tossed 3.0 shutout, no-hit innings on Tuesday while striking out four and walking one. I can’t imagine he stays in Lake County much longer unless they’re keeping him there to help stretch him out to 5-6 innings.

Melki Hernandez followed Campbell with two runs allowed on four hits in 4.0 innings to earn the win. He impressively struck out eight batters and walked two.

Luis Flores and Izaak Martinez closed out the win with a scoreless inning apiece.

Offensively, the usual suspects led the way for the Captain. Aaron Walton continues to impress, going 2-for-5 with his second home run of the season, an absolute moonshot in the fifth inning.

Bennett Thompson also blasted off, going 1-for-2 with a home run and two walks.

Luke Hill went 2-for-4 while Jaison Chourio walked three times and stole a base and Jace LaViolette walked twice and was caught stealing.

Hill City Howlers 7, Hickory Crawdads 6

Howlers improve to 10-6

Hill City jumped all over Hickory with four runs in the first inning, then held on to a win Tuesday.

Anthony Martinez led the way, going perfect at the plate, 3-for-3 with a home run, a triple and a walk. He just missed the cycle by a double.

Robert Arias went 2-for-4 with a double, Juneiker Caceres went 2-for-4 with two doubles, Jonathan Martinez went 2-for-4 with a double and Luis De La Cruz went 2-for-4 with two stolen bases.

Starting pitcher Cam Major allowed three runs on four hits in 3.2 innings of work. He struck out two and walked three.

Will McCausland faced his first adversity in long relief, allowing two runs on four hits in 2.2 innings. Luke Fernandez added a scoreless 1.1 frames and Angel Perez picked up a heart attack save by allowing one run in the ninth inning.

Marcus Smart understands the value of a second-chance in LA: ‘Redeem myself’

An image collage containing 2 images, Image 1 shows Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcus Smart reacts after a three-point basket, Image 2 shows Marcus Smart of the Los Angeles Lakers drives to the basket against the Houston Rockets

Marcus Smart’s assignment in Game 2 of the Lakers’ first-round playoff series against the Houston Rockets was as challenging as it gets. 

Guard Kevin Durant, the greatest scorer of all-time.

What was going through his mind?

“Oh s–t,” Smart told the California Post, chuckling. “Literally, oh s–t.”

Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcus Smart and Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant chase down a loose ball in the first half of game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Houston Rockets at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Smart responded by transforming into a gnat that Durant couldn’t swat. He pestered him. He swarmed him. He made his life miserable. 

He held Durant to 23 points, including just three points on 1-for-5 shooting in the second half of the Lakers’ 101-94 win over the Rockets. Durant, who was returning from a right knee injury, committed nine turnovers. 

“Oh s–t worked out,” Smart told the California Post. “…He just makes me better as a defender. He tests me as a defender.”

Smart didn’t just get an “A” on that assignment. He was the best version of himself. He was a ball of energy. He was a sharpshooter. He was a paint attacker. He was a leader. 

He had the second-most points of anyone on the court behind LeBron James (28), finishing with 25 points on 8-for-13 shooting from the field, including going 5-for-7 from beyond the arc. He also had seven assists, five steals and one blocked shot. 

“Smart, he just had a killer game today,” Lakers coach JJ Redick said.

Marcus Smart of the Los Angeles Lakers controls the ball against Amen Thompson of the Houston Rockets during the first half of Game Two of the NBA Western Conference First Round Playoffs at Crypto.com Arena on April 21, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) Getty Images

Funny enough, when the Lakers’ season was swirling the drain after Luka Doncic (hamstring) and Austin Reaves (oblique) suffered injuries that could sideline them 4-6 weeks, Redick turned to Smart. 

“We had a conversation in San Francisco,” Redick said. “I’m not going to share with you the details, but the biggest thing was just, because he has the voice he has, he can help create the belief and the confidence in our group.”

Redick tasked Smart with the impossible: Convince a disheartened team that they had a shot in the playoffs without their top two scorers. 

Smart took that responsibility seriously. 

Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcus Smart, second from left, celebrates along with team members on the bench after scoring during the second half in Game 2 of a first-round NBA playoffs basketball series against the Houston Rockets, Tuesday, April 21, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill) AP

Ever since the Lakers acquired him in July on a two-year, $11 million deal following a contract buyout with the Washington Wizards, he was hellbent on resuscitating his career. 

The former Defensive Player of the Year in 2022 had atrophied into irrelevance amid two injury-riddled seasons with the Grizzlies and Wizards.

This was his chance to turn things around. 

“Coming into this season, with all the doubts that everybody had about me, then our two best players go down and everyone’s looking around, like, ‘What are we going to do?” Smart told the California Post. “For JJ to say, ‘We have a guy over here that can make plays for us, that can take up some of that slack and we’re going to use him,’ that speaks volumes about the work that I’ve been putting in, the trust that they have in me and the trust that this team built.”

Smart convinced his teammates they could win. And on Tuesday, he demonstrated what unbridled effort looks like on both ends of the court. 

He boxed up Durant. And he unleashed himself.

Los Angeles Lakers guard Marcus Smart reacts after a three-point basket in the first half of game two of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Houston Rockets at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Smart’s journey to this moment was winding. 

Back in January 2018, he nearly lost use of his right hand after punching a picture frame following missing a 3-pointer at the buzzer for the Celtics in a 108-107 loss to the Lakers. 

Then, after helping carry the Celtics to the playoffs in all nine of his seasons with the team, including the 2022 Finals, he was dealt to Memphis in 2023 as part of a three-team deal for Kristaps Porzingis. 

That sent his career into a tailspin alongside floundering franchises. 

When he was at his nadir, the Lakers came calling. Doncic wanted to team up with him. Redick was also intrigued by the 32-year-old after playing against him in the playoffs and then closely studying his impact during the 2022 Finals when the now-coach served as a television analyst.

“It’s easy to write somebody off as being older or not being as good,” Redick said. “But all of the analytics defensively, the analytics as a secondary playmaker, they were all really favorable. So, we felt really comfortable bringing him on board.”

Marcus Smart of the Los Angeles Lakers drives to the basket during the game against the Houston Rockets during Round One Game Two of the 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 21, 2026 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images) NBAE via Getty Images

It was a smart gamble.

He has thrived in Los Angeles. He’s the cornerstone of the team’s defense. He was a finalist for the Teammate of the Year Award. 

And with the Lakers’ backs seemingly against the wall in the first round of the playoffs, he has shined.

“I mean, he’s battle-tested,” James said. “The guy’s been to the Finals, been in multiple playoff games, big games in his career. So, obviously, he’s not afraid of the moment. He’s always been assigned some of the best players that ever played this game in his career. So, to have someone like that, you know, it just brings a lot [of] composure to our team as well.”

Things have turned around for Smart.

He’s showing what he can do. He’s reminding everyone he’s an elite defender. And he’s savoring every moment of it.

When asked what this opportunity means to him, he flashed a wide grin.

“Everything,” he told the California Post. “I thank God everyday for it. This is a dream. This is my dream. This is how I take care of my family. This is something that I love to do. It’s my safe space when things are going haywire for me in my regular life.

“And to be able to say, I have another chance to go out here and redeem myself is the best feeling you can have.”

Twins playfully roast Mets on social media after giving them 12th loss in a row

Following a 5-3 victory on Tuesday night, the Minnesota Twins wasted no time adding insult to injury for the New York Mets, who suffered their 12th consecutive loss.

The Twins seized the moment with a witty social media post. On X, the team's official account shared a celebratory photo from the game with the tongue-in-cheek caption: “Things that you can get in a dozen: Eggs, Roses, Mets losses.”

Juan Soto is back. But can he right the ship for the lowly Mets?

New York Mets fans haven't had much to cheer about this season, especially during the team's current 12-game losing streak. But help is on the way.

Star outfielder Juan Soto is set to return from a calf strain that has sidelined him since April 4. During that time, the Mets have fallen from first place in the National League East division to the worst record in the majors.

Soto, who finished third in the 2025 NL MVP voting in his first season after signing a 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets, is skipping a minor league rehab assignment and is expected to be back in the lineup Wednesday, April 22, for a home game against the Minnesota Twins.

Mets' struggles without Juan Soto

The Mets won their first three games without Soto in the lineup, but have gone on to drop 12 in a row since then.

While the pitching staff has been decent, the supporting cast on offense hasn't done the job in Soto's absence.

All-Star shortstop Francisco Lindor, who hit a three-run homer in Tuesday's 5-3 loss, entered the contest with one home run and one RBI over the team's first 22 games. Prized free agent signee Bo Bichette has just one homer and is hitting .219 − nearly 100 points below his average last season in Toronto.

As a result, the Mets have baseball's lowest team OPS (.617) and are scoring a major league-worst 3.26 runs per game.

"In general, we're not creating those opportunities," manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters Sunday. "In general, we're just not impacting the baseball as a team."

One thing Soto can provide is immediate impact.

The six-time Silver Slugger led the NL with a .396 on-base percentage last season and surprisingly also topped the league with 38 stolen bases. That, in addition to hitting a career-high 43 homers, scoring 120 runs and driving in 105.

How much of a difference can Juan Soto make?

Having his consistently stellar production in the middle of the lineup will help take some of the pressure off Lindor, Bichette and company. But will it be enough to get the Mets back on course for the postseason?

The Cincinnati Reds won a tiebreaker with the Mets last season for the NL's final wild card spot as both teams finished with 83-79 records. Just to get back to that level again this season, the 7-16 Mets would have to go 76-63, a winning percentage of .547.

However, they'll likely have to be much better than they were last season to get into the playoffs. In 2025, just seven NL teams finished with above-.500 records. So far this season, six NL clubs have winning percentages over .600 − with three others at .565 or higher.

Soto replacing rookie Carson Benge, the Mets' weakest regular hitter so far this season, would instantly boost the offense by an estimated 0.8 runs per game, according to Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool. And that doesn't even factor in Soto's impact on the other hitters in the lineup.

The question isn't really whether Soto's return will give the Mets a significant lift. It's whether or not his return will be enough to get the team back into playoff contention. It's far too early to tell for sure ... after all it's only April.

But one thing is certain: Soto and the Mets have some catching up to do. Snapping a lengthy losing streak is the first step in that direction.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Juan Soto set to return to Mets. Can he save their season?