The NBA playoffs are finally upon us, and that means one thing: it’s time to place every team in arbitrary tiers made by yours truly.
First, we need to reiterate one thing. In any given year, only a handful of teams have legitimate shots at the title, as history’s shown that teams need a player good enough to go down as a top-35(ish) all-time great, along with an All-NBA level sidekick. This year, only three squads meet those thresholds: the Thunder, Spurs, and Nuggets.
However, since all of those juggernauts play in the West, we also need to factor in the path to the title for every team. That’s why the East’s best, Boston, are lumped in as a title contender, while the Wolves are in a tier with some lesser teams.
As usual, let’s start at the top.
The favorite: Thunder
OKC was going to be the favorite no matter what, and the only question that remained was who they needed to beat to repeat as champs. Well, after the Spurs’ loss to Denver in the final regular season game, the Thunder officially have a Mickey Mouse path to the Conference Finals, as they’ll only need to go through a poor play-in team and either the Burnergate Rockets or a hobbled Luka-led Lakers.
Given their bye to the semis, I think the title is essentially a coin toss between the Thunder and the entire field. OKC remains the deepest team in the league with arguably the best player too, and they went 64-18 while prioritizing health for 2/3 of the season. All the underlying metrics point to the Thunder being a historically great team, with a +11.9 net rating on the back of a ludicrous 107.3 DRTG, and they could’ve flirted with 70 wins if the regular season was a priority. OKC’s potential flaw is the lack of a second offensive option, as JDub has been injured all year and has not played at the level he did last postseason. I’d bet on the Thunder winning if JDub is at 90% of his usual level, but if that can’t happen, then the title race could be more open than expected.
Legitimate title contenders: Spurs, Nuggets, Celtics
The Spurs could’ve had the same Mickey Mouse path to the Conference Finals that the Thunder do had they taken care of business against Denver last week. Instead, they’re now facing a potential gauntlet with the Nuggets on their side of the bracket and OKC waiting in the third round, if they even make it that far. I was seriously contemplating picking San Antonio to win it all had they beaten Denver’s C-team, and they’re still talented enough to do it, but a more realistic scenario is a competitive loss to the Nuggets or Thunder before heading into next year as one of the favorites — similar to OKC in 2024.
Denver, meanwhile, was my preseason title pick, and their ceiling remains high enough for that to happen. The Nuggets’ 122.5 ORTG is the best ever, and that number exceeds 130 when both Jokic and Murray play. However, their 117.5 DRTG is also 21st in the league, and Peyton Watson is still recovering from a calf strain. Denver’s recipe to the finals is rediscovering their early-season form, especially on defense. The Nuggets were a top 5 defensive team for roughly the first 20 games of the year, and while a lot of that was due to shooting luck, they passed the eye test with flying colors. If they can get back to that level and keep Aaron Gordon healthy, Denver is on par with OKC, but they’ll also need to beat the Spurs first to reach the defending champs.
Boston, meanwhile, isn’t in the same realm as the other teams, but they have a much easier path to the finals. Neither of the Jays are on the level of a Shai, Wemby, or Jokic, and yet, the Celtics’ championship DNA and coaching means that they’ve got a shot at beating any of those teams — especially if the West’s representative is beat up from the wars they’ll wage.
Finals contenders: Knicks, Pistons
Even though Boston is listed in a tier above, I wouldn’t pick them over the entire East field. Both the Knicks and Pistons have the talent to make it to the finals, with the only difference being that neither team seem capable of beating any of the West’s juggernauts. Still, New York and Detroit are two of just six teams with both a top-10 offense and defense, and credit should be given to their respective bigs.
KAT has improved his defense drastically in the last third of the season and shouldn’t be considered a liability if he keeps up his current play. On the other end, Jalen Duren averaged 23/10 when Cade was out with his collapsed lung, giving the Pistons a potential second scoring option good enough to get through the East.
I still expect Boston to get to the finals, but both the Knicks and Pistons can make things very interesting.
The fraud: Cavaliers
If you still believe in the Cavs, I really don’t know what to say. They’ve turned into Clippers East and will inevitably flame out as usual.
Since the Harden trade, Cleveland has the fourth-best offense (121.4) but the 13th-ranked net rating (+4.5) and 18th-ranked defense (116.9). They went 21-9 with an extremely easy schedule and had trouble blowing out tankers due to their defense. If the Cavs don’t get upset by Toronto in the first round, then they’ll be out-toughed by the Pistons in the second. Just look at how their 2023 series against the Knicks went.
I truly wish Cavs fans the best of luck, but don’t be surprised when Mitchell gets banged up, the team gets outrebounded by 100, and Harden goes 2/11 in another elimination game.
Upset potential: Timberwolves, Hawks, Raptors, Hornets*
As back-to-back Western Finalists, the Wolves deserve a better fate than this. Unfortunately, their path to the finals includes facing the Nuggets in round 1, and potentially the Spurs and Thunder in rounds 2 and 3. Moreover, this is a team that has a negative net rating since February, and Ant and McDaniels are just returning from injury. I would be shocked if they took Denver to a game 7, let alone win.
Atlanta has been one of the five best teams for almost two months now, and they will be a difficult test for the Knicks. Yes, they had a cupcake schedule during their winning streak, but the Hawks continued dominating until the end of the season, finishing the year 16-5 with a +12 net rating, good for third in the league during that span.
The Hornets, meanwhile, still need to beat the “PB no J” Magic, and assuming they do, have a real shot at upsetting Detroit too. This Charlotte team is a 50-win team hiding in plain sight, as they have one of the five best records in the league since the new year (33-16) with the second-best net rating at +11.2 — three points better than Detroit.
Lastly, Toronto’s placement here says as much about the Cavs as it does the Raptors, but they also had a better net rating (+6.0) than Cleveland since the Harden trade, while placing top 10 in both offense and defense during that span. Even if they beat the Cavs, I expect a relatively uncompetitive series against Detroit/Charlotte in round 2.
Thunder fodder: Lakers, Rockets
Do we even need to elaborate? The Lakers virtually have no shot against Houston with Luka still sidelined, and Houston was the team everyone wanted to play due to their anemic offense and shocking chemistry issues with getoffmy KD. Moreover, the winner will face a rested OKC team that’ll likely sweep their first-round matchup with Shai sitting every fourth quarter.
There’s always next year, though! I heard a certain Kalshi ambassador might be available.
Participation medal: Sixers, Blazers, Warriors/Suns*, Magic*
Truly the circle of sadness, none of these teams have a shot at winning any first-round series. Still, many of them will be worth watching for the entertainment value. I’d love to see some Steph magic (sorry Phoenix) for perhaps the final time in the playoffs, and Portland could give the Spurs some trouble with their physicality and size against Wemby.
In the East, Philly vs Boston is a classic rivalry, and Embiid hasn’t been ruled out of the series yet. As for Orlando, well, can their season just end already? The Hornets are a much more entertaining team, anyway.
Finals prediction: Thunder over Celtics in 6
Interestingly, I chose this matchup last season too, and only half of that came true. I’m not as confident this year due to the wildcards in the East, and it hinges heavily on how large a load Tatum can handle. In 16 games, The Plagiarizer averaged 21.8/10/5.3 on 41/33/82 splits, looking like 85% of his usual self. More importantly, Tatum ramped his minutes up to 36.2 over five games in April, scoring over 20 points in every contest. It remains to be seen if he’s able to guard opposing bigs again, but regardless, the Celtics have the best combination of toughness, playoff pedigree, and matchup versatility in the East.
OKC’s path has already been laid out. It’ll be shocking if they dropped more than two games in the opening two rounds, and could meet an extremely banged-up Spurs/Nuggets team coming off a 7-game war. With that said, San Antonio has a unique matchup advantage over the Thunder, and if Denver gets past them, it could be a sign that they’ve regained their early-season form. OKC will be challenged and pushed to the brink, but I’m still confident in their ability to be the first back-to-back champs since the dynastic Warriors.
Daulton Varsho
Jordan Walker
Ildemaro Vargas
COVERS INTEL: Tampa Bay is hitting .267 and averaging 5.5 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching this season.
