Category: Sports News

As you probably already saw, I provided my knee-jerk reaction to the Durbin trade last night. Despite Harrison’s willingness to publish the articles that I send him, Brew Crew Ball doesn’t keep me around for my hot takes — they keep me around for my analysis.

As BCB’s resident optimist (usually), I figured it would be a nice change of pace to dive a bit deeper into the return for Caleb Durbin, Andruw Monasterio, and Anthony Seigler. Milwaukee traded two players (Durbin and Monasterio) who both played significant roles for last year’s NL Central champions, while the third player (Seigler) served as valuable depth for a couple months. If a trade isn’t coming, that means that the Brewers are confident that the players coming over from the Red Sox — Shane Drohan, Kyle Harrison, and David Hamilton — are going to help in 2026.

So, what do the Brewers see in each player?

Kyle Harrison

Harrison, in my opinion, is the crown jewel of the deal. I have an article coming on why Brandon Sproat will be the next Brewers’ “pitching lab” success story, but that label could also very well apply to Harrison.

San Francisco picked Harrison in the third round of the 2020 draft, signing him away from his commitment to UCLA. Per Paul’s article from yesterday morning, Harrison “was ranked as a top 25 prospect in the league prior to the 2024 season by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline” and was one of the main pieces (if not the main piece) in the deal that sent Rafael Devers to the Bay Area.

While Harrison’s stats as a major leaguer aren’t half bad (4.04 ERA last year), there’s reason to believe that he has yet to unlock his full potential. His best pitch is his fastball, which has been pretty great so far in his time as a major leaguer. Opponents hit .195 with a .310 slugging percentage against his fastball in 2025. He doesn’t throw all that hard (although he sometimes touches 96-97 mph), but his fastball plays up due to above-average vertical movement from a low three-quarters arm slot. Lower arm angles also generally produce lower vertical approach angles, which is something the Brewers have been looking for in their pitchers.

Harrison’s other pitches are still mostly question marks. He threw his fastball nearly 60% of the time last year. His second- and third-most commonly used pitches were his slurve (27.4% of the time) and changeup (8%). Per a scouting report from SoxProspects.com, Harrison added a cutter and sinker while with the Red Sox. While the cutter shows “potential playing off of his fastball,” he barely threw either pitch in 2025 (3.7% and 2.0% respectively) so there’s not a lot to analyze there.

According to that same scouting report (published around the time of the Devers trade), the Red Sox “tweaked his slurve” upon joining the organization — perhaps explaining why he threw it over a quarter of the time last season. When his slurve is on, it looks good, but it was fairly inconsistent — as shown by the stats. Opponents hit .333 against the pitch in 2025 (.639 slugging percentage).

To put everything above more succinctly: Harrison has one great pitch (his fastball), a second offering that the Red Sox thought would be serviceable with some tweaks (his slurve), and a couple other pitches that are pretty much unknowns. This fits the profile of a number of pitchers acquired by Milwaukee in recent years (most recently Ángel Zerpa). The acquisition of Harrison probably means that the Brewers “pitching lab” thinks they can turn one of his secondary offerings into a second out-getter. Considering his prospect pedigree, already solid numbers as a big leaguer, and the Brewers’ track record of maximizing their pitching talent, I think Harrison’s ceiling as a Brewer is higher than some might think. Remember the reaction to the Quinn Priester trade?

Shane Drohan

The 27-year-old Drohan had a great season last year after a few rough seasons in the minors. He ranked 15th on Baseball America’s list of the top 30 Red Sox prospects. Drohan was originally a fifth rounder out of Florida State but stalled out and was eventually selected by the White Sox as a Rule 5 draft pick. Unfortunately, Drohan suffered a shoulder injury that necessitated nerve decompression surgery and ended up back with the Red Sox. After rejoining Boston’s organization, he proceeded to have his best season yet (2.27 ERA over 12 Triple-A appearances). Health is the main worry with Drohan at this point — he’s only thrown 70 1/3 innings since the end of the 2023 season.

Drohan’s arsenal is a little closer to Sproat’s than it is to Harrison, Zerpa, and other acquisitions that have one or two standout pitches and a couple offerings that need work. Drohan has four pitches that, per Baseball America, are “fringe-average.” Baseball America sees him as a “multi-inning reliever/spot starter who could bounce between Triple-A and the majors.” I’d be inclined to agree that he’s probably just a depth option, but maybe Milwaukee really likes one of his offerings and thinks that with a few tweaks he could be something more. Regardless, as last year’s pitching injuries made obvious, any contender needs a stable of arms who can show up when called on, eat innings, and get outs. If he turns into something more, that’s a bonus.

David Hamilton

The 28-year-old Hamilton is versatile, fast, and solid defensively. He was pressed into action due to injuries in 2024 and had a solid season (.248/.303/.395 in over 300 plate appearances). However, Hamilton came back down to earth last year, hitting under .200 as a part-time player.

Hamilton, in my opinion, projects as a utility infielder. It’s easy to see him playing the Monasterio role, picking up innings at a few different positions and providing somewhere around replacement-level offense. As in the case of Drohan, if he turns into anything more, that’s a bonus.

Good morning and welcome to one of the best days of the year. Say it with me: pitchers and catchers.

Red Sox spring training officially opens today and, with yesterday’s Caleb Durbin trade, Craig Breslow is probably done making any significant transactions.

So with the offseason essentially closed, let’s take a look at how the Red Sox organization has changed since the Cam Schlittler Game.

Notable MLB Departures

List organized by 2025 bWAR:

• Alex Bregman, 3.5
• Lucas Giolito, 2.1
• Rob Refsnyder, 1.2
• David Hamilton, 1.0
• Chris Murphy, 0.5
• Steven Matz, 0.5
• Hunter Dobbins, 0.4
• Nathaniel Lowe, 0.4
• Justin Wilson, 0.3
• Luis Guerrero, 0.1
• Brennan Bernardino, 0.0
• Vaughn Grissom (N/A)
• Cooper Criswell, -0.1
• Josh Winckowski, -0.1
• Richard Fitts, -0.3
• Liam Hendriks, -0.3
• Dustin May, -0.6
• Jordan Hicks, -1.8

Notable MLB Additions

List organized by 2025 bWAR:

• Ranger Suárez, 4.7
• Caleb Durbin, 2.8
• Willson Contreras, 2.5
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 1.7
• Sonny Gray, 1.4
• Johan Oviedo, 0.8
• Andruw Monasterio, 0.8
• Seth Martinez, 0.0
• Tsung-Che Cheng, 0.0
• Brendan Rogers, 0.0
• Anthony Seigler, -0.1
• Mickey Gasper, -0.3
• Vinny Capra (-0.6)
• Kyle Keller, N/A (NPB)

Notable Minor League Departures

List organized by highest SoxProspects.com ranking:

• Luis Perales (3)
• Jhostynxon Garcia (5)
• Shane Drohan (5)
• Brandon Clarke (6)
• David Sandlin (8)
• Yhoiker Fajardo (8)
• Kyle Harrison (N/A)
• Jedixson Paez (16)
• Jesus Travieso (19)
• Alex Hoppe (28)
• Justin Riemer (30)
• Blake Aita (33)

Notable Minor League Additions

List organized by current SoxProspects.com ranking:

• Jake Bennett (6)
• Ryan Watson (20)
• Tyler Samaniego (28)
• Gage Ziehl (3o)
• Adonys Guzman (31)
• Luke Heyman (32)
• Isaiah Jackson (50)
• Nate Baez (N/A)
• Matt Fraizer (N/A)
• Braiden Ward (N/A)
• 67th draft pick, 2026

So what conclusions can we draw from this. I’ll take a stab at a couple.

First, I think it’s inarguable that, barring injuries, the roster that will open the 2026 season is more talented than the roster that closed out 2025. Craig Breslow has assembled arguably the single best pitching staff in baseball — one that is not only strong at the top of the rotation, but deep, with a couple of high-end prospects who will start the season in Worcester. And while the lineup may not perform as well as it did in 2025 without Alex Bregman and a half a year of Rafael Devers, Willson Contreras is a solid addition while Caleb Durbin looks to be a good bet to be league average.

But having said that, the roster remains unbalanced and I am very worried about the lineup in general. There is a lot of pressure being put on young players to step up. Roman Anthony probably needs to perform at an All-Star level in his first full season for this Red Sox team to go anywhere (I think he can and will). While Marcelo Mayer, Ceddanne Rafaela, Carlos Narvaez, Triston Casas, and Caleb Durbin — all of whom have significant question marks — all need to contribute. It’s easy to simply say that Anthony will replace Devers production and Contreras will replace Bregman’s. And perhaps that will happen. But Contreras comes with significant risk of age-related decline (as does Trevor Story) and we cannot count on linear progression from Anthony. The lineup could potentially be anemic against left-handed pitching, while an unfortunate injury or some stalled development could make things ugly in the infield.

Speaking of age-related decline, can we count on Aroldis Chapman to once again be one of the best relievers in baseball? Craig Breslow is essentially doing just that, as he has barely touched the bullpen.

And, of course, we can’t ignore the minor leagues. Breslow has expended a lot of prospect capital over the past two years, particularly on the position player side, where you could argue that Franklin Arias is now the only notable prospect in the entire system.

All of this brings me to my conclusion: Craig Breslow improved the Red Sox in the 2025-26 offseason, but he didn’t improve the team enough. With an emerging superstar in Roman Anthony, one of the game’s very best starters in Garrett Crochet, a deep rotation, and a core of cheap, exciting young players, the Red Sox should be in a position to push for ~98 wins and a stress-free ride to the postseason. Instead, I think they’re probably only a couple wins better than last year’s team and, with a few bad breaks, could miss the postseason entirely.

For those reasons, I’ll give him a solid B. What’s your grade?

The Detroit Tigers infield isn’t exactly a juggernaut, but while the shortstop position looks like an ongoing weakness that won’t be resolved unless Kevin McGonigle proves he can play serviceable defense there, the Tigers have a credible enough duo in Javier Báez and Zach McKinstry to hold down the fort until the promised one arrives. They face a similar situation in the outfield, where they’re pretty well set with Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter handling the corners most days, but center field remains a question mark.

Parker Meadows’ strange, injury plagued 2025 was really not what the doctor ordered at a key position of need. While the Tigers, and much of the league, is less concerned with infield defense these days, preventing extra base hits and covering the still spacious grounds of Comerica Park’s outfield remains a priority. Meadows can certainly handle that part of the job, but only if he hits enough not to be a liability. That’s a pretty wide open question after streaky, but overall mediocre performance over his first 177 games in the major leagues. Now 26 years old, and with only one option remaining, there is some pressure on Meadows to be a much more consistent presence in the lineup this season.

Beyond the likely starting three, assuming Meadows is at least functional at the plate this spring, their other main options in the outfield are Matt Vierling and Wenceel Pérez.

Vierling is returning after missing nearly all of the 2025 season due to a rotator cuff strain that continued to flare up even after a lengthy rehabilitation process. His status is a complete toss-up at this point. In 2024, Vierling showed he could handle center field acceptably, but he’s clearly not an ideal regular out there. He was a pretty steady presence in the lineup as well, but only a little above average despite sitting against tougher matchups for him.

Stll, despite his speed and raw power, the 29-year-old hasn’t established himself as anything more than a useful bench piece, and he’s just average in center field. If Meadows struggles again, the Tigers are going to be a bit hard-pressed with Vierling playing a lot of center field, and of course this assumes that Vierling can get back on track at the plate as well, and that the shoulder trouble is finally behind him. For a possible answer to the Meadows question, Vierling comes with his own set of question marks.

Pérez continues to provide some runs of pretty good production at the plate, with the added advantage of switch-hitting. We have two seasons now to illustrate that he’s basically a league average hitter who takes his walks, doesn’t strike out more than a league average amount, and can provide some power and speed on the bases. He cracked 13 homers in 2025 across just 383 plate appearances. His problem is that he continues to chase quite a bit, particularly as a left-handed hitter, giving pitchers some room to get him out without risking any damage.

More relevant to the discussion is the fact that while Pérez’s speed and solid arm make him a pretty good fit in right field, he continues to struggle a bit as a center fielder. He can play out there, but the need to be able to break both ways and make accurate reads on the more unpredictable trajectories coming his way in center field continue to limit his utility out there to more of a fill-in role. Pérez has two options remaining to Meadows and Vierling’s one, so unless he’s really swinging a hot bat or looks better in center field, he may well spend the season moving up and down between Triple-A and the big leagues.

The final significant option on the likely active roster is Javier Báez. Somewhat shockingly, the mercurial infielder recovered well from his 2024 hip labrum repair, regaining at least average speed. Still, no one expected him to thrive quite as well as he did when A.J. Hinch asked him to take over in center field. He doesn’t have the speed of a true center fielder, but it turned out that his outstanding baseball instincts translated very well to center field, and he was able to make up for the modest speed with excellent reads, routes, and closing ability.

As a hitter, Báez is pretty well reduced to a lefty masher who inexplicably rakes with runners on base and is downright terrible with the bases empty. He may spell Meadows out there a little more once McGonigle arrives, but I suspect we’ll mostly see a Báez/McKinstry platoon at shortstop until that point, meaning that Báez will be occupied playing shortstop against left-handed starters. He may still move to center field as a replacement after pinch-hitting for Meadows against left-handers, but that’s more Vierling’s role if he can reclaim it.

Altogether, these options aren’t terribly inspiring, but at least they do have four players capable of handling the position without being a big problem. Meadows hitting would really erase any concerns, but it’s going to take quite a bit to trust in that at this point. The Tigers should be okay in center field, but to do any better than that, they really need Meadows to thrive.

However, while he won’t start the year with the big league club, there is hope on the horizon in the form of Max Clark. A true center fielder whose instincts and reads continue to improve with pro reps, Clark is the long-term answer at the position. He’s got the hitting ability and plate discipline to handle the majors eventually, and his 2025 season showed him tapping into his average power potential more consistently. Clark has much less chance of breaking camp with the team than McGonigle does, and really could use a good amount of Triple-A at-bats to set him up for success, but we’re almost certainly going to see Clark in center field for the Tigers at some point. Whether that looks like him coming up to take the job from a struggling Meadows, or whether it’s a late season call-up, depends on both players’ performance in the first half.

Finally, while they had to scramble last year to find credible options for short-term help, turning briefly to minor league veterans like Ryan Kreidler and Brewer Hicklen for depth, the Tigers are in a better position this year with both Trei Cruz and Ben Malgeri likely to be on the Toledo Mud Hens roster to start the year.

The 27-year-old Cruz is a switch-hitter who can handle both center field and shortstop, though he’s not quite MLB average in either spot. His lineage shows up in his professional approach to every part of the game. While certainly not as gifted as his All-Star grandfather Jose Cruz, he walks a lot, doesn’t chase much, can steal you a base, and generally gets a lot out of his well-rounded skillset. After missing the 2022 season to Tommy John surgery just as he reached Double-A, Cruz stalled for two seasons trying to get his bearings against upper level pitching. A modest breakthrough in 2025 now has him looking like perhaps the next edition of a Zach McKinstry type player who functions as his manager’s Swiss Army knife. Major league pitching is going to give him trouble, but his ability to grind out long at-bats and do a lot of little things right may earn him enough playing time at some point to get more comfortable in the role.

Malgeri is the final option on the menu, but he too is an interesting veteran minor leaguer with a lot of tools in the, close to MLB caliber, but not quite, range. Drafted in the 18th round back in 2021, Malgeri reached Double-A in 2023 but struggled facing better stuff and struck out too much to have any real prospect status. He returned for another go last year, his age 25 season, and made some minor swing changes to simplify things and handle better velocity more consistently. After striking out 30 percent of the time in his first two looks at the level, he cut that down to just 18.2 percent, while walking 8.5 percent of the time.

Malgeri has some pop, but his line drive approach doesn’t produce much over the fence power. Still, he sprays a lot of extra base hits and puts together consistently professional at-bats. He’s below average in center field but has enough speed and chops to handle the position acceptably well, though he profiles better in right field and moved there once Max Clark graduated to Erie and took over the everyday center fielder role. As with Cruz, things are not going to plan if Malgeri ends up playing much outfield for the Tigers this year, but they won’t be scrambling for veteran minor league options in a pinch this season either.

The looming presence of Max Clark really puts the Tigers in a far better position than they were in last year. They don’t want to rush him, and he’s not quite the wildly precocious hitter that Kevin McGonigle is, but at some point the club is going to have its answer in center field should Parker Meadows struggle again. They should also have more in-house options available in a pinch. Ideally, Meadows manages to stay healthy and relatively productive, the outfield is in good shape, and the Tigers will be able to bring Clark along on the ideal development timetable for him rather than having to rush it. The group covering center field will be a key one to watch this spring.

Players are beginning to report to Spring Training, and while there is still time for big moves – as I write this, the Red Sox just traded away a top pitching prospect for a shiny new starting third-bagger – the look of teams is really beginning to shake out in a way that lets us begin to do silly things like rank who is the best at each position around the sport.

For this exercise, I counted all of the guys I felt were clearly ahead of a given Royal and then ranked the Royal in that spot. This means that, in most cases, there are multiple guys you could make a case to bump ahead of the Royal, but it would be a discussion. For example, Salvador Perez and Adley Rutschman feel pretty similar – in terms of ranking, not skillset – heading into 2026, so you could reasonably bump Rutschman ahead of Salvy, and I wouldn’t quibble too much. But you have to set the bar somewhere, and this is a blog about the Royals, and I wanted to be generous because Spring is the time for hope and excitement. Still, if you want to be pessimistic, you can bump any of these guys (minus one) down as many as five spots and you’d probably still be in the right range.

Catcher – 12

For the purpose of this exercise, I’m going to rank Salvador Perez as a catcher and Carter Jensen as a designated hitter. If I were ranking Carter here, he’d be a lot higher. But I didn’t, so he isn’t. Salvy has been a mainstay for the Royals for more than a decade, so it might seem insulting to rank him so low. But the fact that, entering his age-36 season, he still looks like a top-half-of-the-league guy is impressive as all get-out. Cal Raleigh leads the pack here, naturally. However, I also estimate Will Smith, Alejandro Kirk, Hunter Goodman, Drake Baldwin, Shea Langeliers, Kyle Teel, William Contreras, Dillon Dingler, Gabriel Moreno, and Francisco Alvarez above him.

First base – 8

You can put me down for thinking Vinnie Pasquantino has another gear available to him in 2026. The Pasquatch had a 30-homer, 100-RBI season in 2025, and I think with a longer lineup, he will rediscover the plate discipline that defined him as a prospect in 2022. His ability to tailor his approach to the situation has been a boon to the Royals at times the past two seasons, but has hurt his overall production as he’s tried to carry more than his fair share of the RBI load. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comes up tops for me. The additional players I have ahead of Vinnie are Bryce Harper, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Nick Kurtz, Michael Busch, and Jonathan Aranda. There are a lot of guys around him that could push him lower if you wanted: Matt Olson, Josh Naylor, Ryan O’Hearn, Willson Contreras, Ben Rice, and Spencer Torkelson. But I’d take him over any of them.

Second base – 29

If I rank primary second basemen with at least 200 PAs by fWAR in 2025, India comes in at 49. Behind Adam Frazier, ahead of Michael Massey. The unsigned Luis Rengifo – someone the Royals should seriously consider for a utility role, if they aren’t – is ahead of him. But the Rangers don’t appear to have a real primary second baseman after trading away Marcus Semien. FanGraphs has the Angels positionally behind the Royals here, too, but I believe in Christian Moore more than they do, I guess.

To be clear, there’s a lot of room for advancement here. If India can bounce back at all, or if Michael Massey can supplant him and come back, the Royals could jump up this list in a hurry. I’m just not sure I see it.

Third base – 5

Now that’s more like it. I almost took Maikel Garcia all the way up to fourth, but I think Matt Chapman has one more really good year in him. Jose Ramírez is a future Hall of Famer and leads the way here. Junior Caminero and Bo Bichette are also ahead of Maikel, but I think if he can find another step, he could pass Bichette as well as Chapman pretty easily. The easiest path for finding that step is probably to run the bases as well as he did in 2024 while hitting like he did in 2025. That would get him up next to Caminero; I just don’t see any way he can reach J-Ram’s heights in 2026, though, unless the Guardian starts falling like a meteor.

Shortstop – 1

It’s Bobby Witt Jr. He has a bad season, and that lands him fourth in MVP voting. What are we even doing here? There are lots of good shortstops in baseball. Francisco Lindor, Gunnar Henderson, Geraldo Perdomo, Trea Turner, and Corey Seager all immediately spring to mind. But as far ahead as Ramírez is over Maikel, Bobby is that far ahead of everyone else at his position. ZiPS projects him for the fourth-most WAR in baseball. It would be silly to pretend he’s anything but one of the top 10 best players in the sport at any position.

Left field – 13

I think people might be sleeping a little on Isaac Collins. I get that he’s not a big-name guy, but he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting last year. I’m not sure who the clear-cut best left fielder in 2026 is. Steven Kwan gets the best projection on FanGraphs, but I have him down in the mud with Collins thanks to a lackluster 2025. If you threatened my life, I’d probably offer up Roman Anthony. Riley Greene and Wyatt Langford both feel like pretty good picks, too, though. The others I have definitively ahead of Collins are Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Jackson Chourio, Tyler Soderstrom, Kyle Stowers, Randy Arozerena, and Heliot Ramos. Ramón Laureano, Taylor Ward, Lars Nootbar, and Mike Yastrzemski round out the group of guys similar to Collins in my mind.

Center field – 12

Twelfth seems way too high for Kyle Isbel, but well, let’s go through them all, I guess. First, the 11 clearly ahead of him: Julio Rodríguez is the best, followed by Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jackson Merril, Byron Buxton, Trent Grisham, Michael Harris II, Cedanne Rafaela, Evan Carter, Daulton Varsho, Parker Meadows, and Jo Adell. Here are the rest of the projected starting centerfielders: Andy Pages, Oneil Cruz, Colton Cowser, Jake Meyers, Harrison Bader, Jakob Marsee, Luis Robert Jr., Garrett Mitchell, Justin Crawford, Denzel Clarke, Brenton Doyle, Chase DeLauter*, Jacob Young, TJ Friedl, Victor Scott II, Cedric Mullins, Luisangel Acuña, Alek Thomas.

*DeLauter is a top prospect, and maybe he should be a for-sure ahead of Isbel but….

And yeah, sure, when I look at that group, I’d assume that some number of them will be more valuable than Isbel. Let’s say at least six of those guys are going to be better than Isbel. But if I compare them individually, I have a hard time saying, “Yes, this guy specifically will be more valuable than Isbel.”

If I had to guess which ones would climb out of the much, I guess I’d pick Pages, DeLauter, Bader, Robert, Cruz, and Cowser. But I’m betting any money on any of them to do it, that’s for sure. Still, if you wanted to say Isbel was more like eighteenth, I’d probably agree. I’m just not super sure about exactly who pushes him that low.

Right field – 12

Jac Caglianone is getting a huge lift here from both his prospect status and his projections; it’s certainly not from what he did in 2025. Though I’ll continue to insist that if he’d played a full season and hit 21 homers (which is what he would have had if you multiply his playing time and homers by three to get to full-season stats), even with those terrible rate stats, we’d be a lot less scared about his potential. Aaron Judge is naturally the top dog here. Also clearly ahead of Jac are Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Acuña Jr., Kyle Tucker, Corbin Carroll, Wilyer Abreu, Seiya Suzuki, Matt Wallner, and Addison Barger.

If Jac actually lives up to his projections, he’s going to pass several of those guys. Maybe even more than half of them.

Designated Hitter – 8

This time last year, I was advocating for Carter Jensen to get traded because I really didn’t believe in his future potential. I was wrong. Now I’m ready to project him as the eighth-best designated hitter in baseball. Though I hope he’s catching more and designated hitting less. I hope I’m right this time.

Shohei Ohtani is, as usual, in a league of his own. Behind him, but ahead of Carter Jensen, I have Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Schwarber, Brent Rooker, Ivan Herrera, Jarren Duran, and Yandy Díaz.

Just because I’m unhappy with how all this worked out, if I flipped Salvy and Jensen, I think Salvy would still rank between 8 and 10 in DH. George Springer and Christian Yelich might pass him. Carter would be ahead of Teel, Baldwin, Dingler, Alvarez, and Contreras at least. That would put him at seventh.

Taking into account the caveats I laid out at the start, this all still makes me feel better about the Royals’ lineup than when I started. Some of them will not end the season as high as they ranked here, but compare it to last year. Catcher might have gone up a few slots, second would have gone up a bunch (and been wrong, but that’s how it goes.) Shortstop, center, and first would have remained roughly the same. But third would have been much lower. Designated hitter and both corner outfield spots would have been near the bottom.

We’ve spent all offseason lamenting that the Royals didn’t make a big move to improve the outfield or second base, but even the middling moves they’ve made should lead to drastic improvements from awful to mediocre. The rotation is very similar to last season but with more depth, and the bullpen should also be improved. Until July 31, there’s always more opportunity to improve the roster. But even until that happens, the Royals should be pretty fun to watch this year.

In Mariners news…

• Daniel Kramer at MLB.com projects the Mariners’ 2026 Opening Day roster ahead of Spring Training.

Around the league…

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have signed veteran slugger Marcell Ozuna to a one-year/$12 million deal.
• Veteran RHP Hunter Strickland has signed a minor league deal with the Los Angeles Angels, his seventh different MLB team since 2019.
• Arizona Diamondbacks LHP Andrew Saalfrank will miss the entire 2026 season following shoulder surgery.
• The A’s have traded infielder Max Schuemann to the New York Yankees in exchange for minor league RHP Luis Burgos.
• The Miami Marlins have signed RHP Chris Paddack to a one-year/$4 million deal with up to $500k in performance bonuses.
• The Boston Red Sox have acquired infielder and 2025 Rookie of the Year finalist Caleb Durbin from the Milwaukee Brewers as part of a 6-player trade.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have signed free agent RHP Nick Martinez to a one-year/$13 million deal.
• Veteran RHP Erick Fedde is headed back to the Chicago White Sox on a one-year deal.
• Infielder Gio Urshela is also reuniting with his old team as he headlines the Minnesota Twins’ list of Spring Training non-roster invitees.

13. Sterlin Thompson (314 points, 19 ballots)

Fair or not, Thompson’s progress will be judged in part by Rockies fans by the fact his draft pick (31st-overall in 2022) was the only compensation Colorado received for Trevor Story leaving in free agency, in lieu of a deadline trade. Thompson signed for a slot bonus of just over $2.43 million as a productive draft-eligible sophomore college hitter from the SEC. The 24-year-old 6’4” lefty hitter, righty thrower split time between second base and the outfield in college at Florida, but as a professional he’s played everywhere except shortstop and catcher. In 2025 though he was mostly a left fielder or DH with a little right field action.

Thompson mashed his way to Double-A by the end of his first full year in 2023 and had a strong stint in that year’s Arizona Fall League, hitting .338/.460/.475 with nine extra base hits in 80 PA. That led to some top 100 discussion for Thompson, but it wasn’t a smooth ride for him in 2024. Thompson went back to Hartford, where he was 0.6 years younger than average. Thompson wasn’t bad offensively — his .245/.319/.385 line in 518 plate appearances with 13 HR among his 35 XBH and 12/16 steals translates to an above average 103 wRC+. Still, it was below his 2023 level and certainly below expectations for fans and scouts alike, especially given that he slid down the defensive spectrum (from second base to left field).

In 2025, Thompson got the bump up to Triple-A Albuquerque. As the team’s primary left fielder on a team that has several highly regarded outfield prospects, Thompson’s .296/.392/.519 batting line in 513 plate appearances — including 18 homers, eight triples, and 28 doubles with 12 steals — looked pretty good. Of course, the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League took the air a bit out of those numbers, but his production was still a very respectable 118 wRC+. The lefty hitter has some pretty big platoon splits, with a strong OPS against righties (.950) vs. his mark against southpaws (.793). In 101 games in the outfield (95 in left), Thompson committed six errors but also added nine outfield assists.

Those full season numbers look pretty good, but the trajectory was even better. Thompson started the 2025 season off very poorly, hitting for a .562 OPS in April, but after that Thompson was excellent. His monthly OPS numbers after the tough start were 1.103 in May, .935 in June, .783 in July, a scalding 1.222 in August, and a 1.013 total in September. Thompson cut his strikeouts year over year by 2.7% while raising his walks 2%, which is also a positive development.

Those developments were enough to earn Thompson a 40-man roster spot this off-season. Here’s a good piece by Manny Randwana of MLB.com on Thompson’s 2025 after he earned that 40-man roster spot.

Here’s some video of Thompson from Albuquerque last year:

For a look at the swing from a side profile, here’s Thompson hitting a double in Triple-A in April.

Keith Law of the Athletic moved Thompson up to sixth in the system earlier this month (Law at one point ranked Thompson 70th overall in MLB):

Thompson has always been a bat-first prospect and he continued to hit the ball hard, peaking at 112.9 mph with a 90th percentile EV of 105.1. He didn’t hit breaking stuff that well even with the benefit of altitude, and now that he’s ensconced in the outfield, there’s more pressure on the bat. He could get to everyday status, more likely sticking around a while as a sometime regular and more frequent bench/platoon bat, starting this year.

Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs slots Thompson as a 45 FV player, fourth in the system as a left fielder with a 50 future hit tool to go along with 50 power (as of last January):

Thompson is a left-handed Miguel Vargas of sorts, a bat-only prospect without superlative physicality. Built in the Daniel Murphy and Nolan Schanuel mold, Thompson isn’t an especially mobile athlete, and he has trended down the defensive spectrum during the last few years from 2B/3B to 1B/LF, where he isn’t particularly sound. Thompson has great hands in the batter’s box, his pretty swing generates airborne contact from pole to pole, and he does not miss mistakes. He’s going to actualize the power he has, but it will only be fair pop unless something about his physicality changes drastically in his mid-20s. Now a career .270/.345/.430 hitter in the minors, Thompson has a roughly average contact and power combination undercut a bit by a lack of plate discipline. It’s enough to consider him a high-probability platoon piece, but not enough to consider him a foundational everyday player at the positions he’s capable of playing.

MLB Pipeline ranks Thompson 15th in the system as a 45 FV player (as an OF) with a 50 hit tool:

The Rockies think the adjustments Thompson made as the season went on bode well for him reaching his offensive ceiling. He still has a smooth left-handed swing and is capable of using the whole field, hitting the ball hard for extra bases. He’s had a little difficulty keeping weight on his 6-foot-3 frame, but he showed up in Arizona after his offseason more physical, which should help him get to a little more power. Because he trusts his feel to hit so much, he sometimes isn’t patient enough and increased discipline could allow him to get more pitches to drive.

The hardest thing to figure out has been where Thompson could play defensively. He’s seen time at third, second and first on the dirt, but he may have finally found a home in left field, looking more athletic than he has anywhere on the infield. Removing defensive stress could also help him unlock his offensive potential, with the knowledge it’s the bat they were buying in the first place.

John Trupin of Baseball Prospectus ranked Thompson 18th last January:

Contrary to many of his contemporaries in the system, Thompson is a bat-first prospect whose ability to cover an outfield corner is in question. Previously trusted with greater responsibility at the hot corner, Thompson played just a single game at third in 2024, covering first most after a corner outfield role. Suffice to say, the pressure on Thompson’s bat grew significantly, and it’s not clear he met the challenge. Precisely average at a 100 DRC+ in Double-A Hartford across 518 plate appearances, Thompson’s swing is still slightly longer and floatier than may be ideal. He coils his body as he loads, in a move that generates significant bat speed but can leave him closed off as he attempts to whip the bat through the zone. The swing is well planed to elevate line drives, but leaves him little recourse when fooled, and does not create as much over the fence pop as might be necessary to cover his athletic but limited efforts in the field.

Thompson’s 2025 season (especially the post-April performance) was quite encouraging for his future big league prospects given the improved production and plate discipline. He’ll enter spring training with a slim chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but if he doesn’t do so, Thompson will be one of the first options for the Rockies (along with fellow PuRP Zac Veen) for a big league call-up. The most likely outcome may be that Thompson gets a few different stints in the big leagues this year.

In Thompson, I see a hit-over-power prospect with limited usable defensive utility where the hit tool will need to carry him to the Show. To make that work, he needs his plate discipline improvements from 2025 and the improved ability to get his power into games to stick moving forward — a narrow path to be sure, but not an impossible one. The hit tool the most important one and Thompson has big league potential there, which is why (despite the limited utility he may offer elsewhere) Thompson is a 40+ FV player for me, ranking 14th on my list.

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The Mets’ bullpen in 2026 has a new look after some significant additions and subtractions. The team lost Edwin Díaz to the Dodgers, Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley both headed to the American League East, and Reed Garrett and Dedniel Nuñez will miss the season following Tommy John surgeries. The Mets have most notably added Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, but they also signed Luis García and received Tobias Myers in the Freddy Peralta trade. But the bullpen is likely to have turnover as the Mets decide who works and who doesn’t, and for that likelihood, they have several options in the fold heading into spring training.

One such option is Craig Kimbrel, who the team signed to a minor league deal with an invitation to major league spring training. A potential Hall of Famer in the twilight of his career, Kimbrel has hopped from team to team over the past few seasons. And now he’s with the Mets, with the potential to give them some solid innings in relief if he makes the major league roster.

Over the course his career, Kimbrel has logged a 2.58 ERA in 821.2 innings, with 1,282 strikeouts and a 1.020 WHIP. He has 440 saves, which is the fifth most all-time, and a career 159 ERA+ that’s well above average for a reliever. He’s accumulated 22.7 bWAR in his career, on par with other top closers of his era like Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman.

A lot of that accumulation and excellence came earlier in his career, however, and Kimbrel has turned into a solid relief option instead of a feared closer. His first nine seasons in the major leagues produced some really tremendous work. He had a 1.80 ERA in 470.1 innings with 772 strikeouts, 291 saves, a 0.910 WHIP, and a 222 ERA+. In those nine seasons, he was worth 17.7 bWAR, won Rookie of the Year in 2011 with the Braves, made nine All-Star teams, finished top ten in Cy Young Award voting five times, and even received MVP votes from 2011 to 2013.

Since 2019, when he signed with the Cubs, he has put up a 3.83 ERA in 289 innings and earned just 107 of his career saves, less than a quarter of career total. He has just 414 strikeouts in that time with a 1.204 WHIP and a 110 ERA+, far below his usual dominance. He accumulated just 2.9 of his career WAR during that time as well. 

Last year, he was somewhat effective in a limited role. In 12.0 innings with two different teams—the lion’s share being with the Astros—he had a 2.25 ERA with 17 strikeouts and a 1.417 WHIP. He didn’t get any saves, but he had a 197 ERA+ and accumulated 0.4 bWAR in such limited time. He might not have been a star closer, but in an admittedly extremely small sample, he was a good late inning relief option for the Astros down the stretch.

With at least one or two spots in their bullpen up for grabs in spring training, the Mets are giving Kimbrel a lookto see if he can win a spot. And if he can deliver, he could become a dependable piece of the Mets’ bullpen this season.

Following a disappointing 2025 season where the Nationals went 66-96, Fangraphs doesn’t expect the results to be much improved entering the 2026 season, with their ZiPS projection system placing them at an estimated 63-99 record this season. While this number won’t bring much joy to Nats fans about how this season is going to look, it’s important to look at this number in context and understand how accurate these projections really are.

First off, it’s important to understand what ZiPS is and why it’s worth looking at when evaluating a roster as a whole. ZiPS uses player aging curves, along with all sorts of Statcast data and injury history, to project how every player on a team will perform in an upcoming season.

Once that has been compiled, they project the playing time of all these players on a club, and then run roughly 10,000 simulations of the season to find the most likely scenario for a ballclub. While it shouldn’t be taken as gospel, as there are so many external factors that go into a team’s season, it can offer a useful guide for how clubs should be viewed entering a season.

I’ve compared ZiPS projected record for the Nats from 2025 to 2015 (excluding 2020) to their actual records in those years, and a few things stand out. For starters, the only years I’d say the projection system was way, way off were in 2021 and 2022, years where the Nationals roster was changing vastly from beginning to end of the year.

ZiPS still had faith in the Nationals’ big three of Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin to hold down the rotation in 2021, and thought the big bats of Juan Soto and Trea Turner, with the addition of Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber to the lineup, would be enough to keep the Nationals at least relevant that season. The 2021 Nats had a wide range of outcomes, and, unfortunately, they ultimately ended on the bad side of that outcome range, finishing 18 wins under their projection with 65.

In 2022, it’s hard to say quite why ZiPS thought the Nats would be at least a watchable group, but it also couldn’t have projected for the midseason loss of Juan Soto or the atrocious performance of Nelson Cruz after nothing but years of raking. ZiPS also anticipated a rebound in success from Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg to pitch at least a portion of that year, 2 things that we now know did not happen at all. 2022 was ZiPS’ biggest miss in modern times when it comes to projecting the Nationals’ record, with the actual 2022 Nats finishing a whopping 21 wins under their projection.

Outside of those 2 years, ZiPS has been rather on the money with its Nationals record predictions, finishing within 10 games 7 of 8 years, and within 5 games in 4 of those 8. It’s done particularly on the money on the Nats club of the past 3 seasons, undershooting slightly on the 2023 and 2024 Nats win totals, before overshooting a little bit on the 2025 Nats.

So what does all of this mean for the 2026 Nationals? It means it could be another long season full of growing pains, but it’s also worth considering the external variable that could affect this projection. For starters, there is an entirely new front office and coaching staff in place from years past, meaning new voices for the players to hear from and potentially help find another gear of success in them.

There are also plenty of youngsters on the ballclub, such as Brady House and Harry Ford, who could break out at anytime, something the model struggles to account for as compared to veterans that it has lots of success to back up its projections.

Overall, while these models and projection systems can be fun to look at and attempt to decipher during the offseason, all bets are off once it’s time to playball, as the 2026 Nationals could come out swinging and make these numbers all look silly. Still, based on the historical trend of these projections, it would be unwise to dismiss them completely.

Allie Reynolds’ parents decided that he wouldn’t play organized baseball until after he left high school. Despite the late start to the game he wound up loving, he was good enough to make it to the big leagues with the Cleveland, and to pique the Yankees’ interest, as they sent Joe Gordon out to Ohio to acquire him in late 1946.

Cleveland needed an infielder, and the Yankees could definitely use a talented pitcher. Those circumstances resulted in an eight-year stint in the Bronx for Reynolds, who was equally good starting a game or entering as a reliever.

Allie Pierce Reynolds
Born: February 10, 1917 (Bethany, OK)
Died: December 26, 1994 (Oklahoma City, OK)
Yankees Tenure: 1947-54

Reynolds was born in Bethany, Oklahoma, on February 10, 1917. He was 3/16-ths Creek Indian and, according to the Society of American Baseball Research (SABR), his parents lived by the Nazarene doctrine, staying away from movies and dances. Young Allie wasn’t allowed to play sports on Sundays.

His athletic ability eventually stood out, though, and he was very good at multiple disciplines, most notably baseball, softball, track, and football. He might have had a future in the latter, but coaches believed his build was too light.

Reynolds married his high school sweetheart, Dale Earlene Jones, in 1935, long before becoming a major leaguer. Oklahoma A&M gave Reynolds a track scholarship, and he shone there in the 100-yard dash, the 220-yard dash, and javelin throw while also playing football.

In 1937, he was spotted by Oklahoma A&M’s athletic director and baseball coach Henry Iba. Initially, he was asked to throw batting practice to the team, and after impressing everybody there, he joined the squad. In 1939, Cleveland signed Reynolds and gave him a $1,000 bonus. He encountered some control issues in Class-C, but it was all a learning experience for the young righty, who was 22 at the time.

He stayed in the minors until 1942 and made his debut in September as a reliever.

Despite some strong seasons in Cleveland — even making the All-Star team in 1945 — he couldn’t make the World Series there. His career took a turn for the better when he joined the Bombers, though, finishing 15th in the MVP race in 1947 with a 19-8 record and a 3.20 ERA.

That year, Reynolds won his first of six World Series titles, in addition to the ones he got in 1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, and 1953. He was stellar in the Fall Classic, compiling a 7-2 record and a 2.79 ERA in 15 appearances and 77.1 innings.

The 1951 campaign would be one of the best in Reynolds’ career. He won the 1951 Hickok Belt award as the top professional athlete in America, was third in the AL MVP race, won 17 games, threw two-hitters, and put up a 3.05 ERA. As hard to believe as it might sound, 1952 was even better. Reynolds won 20 games, had a 2.06 ERA (best in the AL), and also led the junior circuit with 160 punchouts. He was second in the race for the MVP Award.

Reynolds retired in 1954, the first year in which he didn’t win the Fall Classic since 1948. He went out in style, posting a 3.32 ERA in 157.1 frames, starting 18 games and entering as a reliever in another 18.

Reynolds was a member of some really strong Yankees rotations in the late ’40s and early ’50s, joined by the likes of Vic Raschi and Eddie Lopat. He managed to stand out, mainly because of his heart, ability and willingness to pitch hurt, and clutch pitching performances when it mattered most.

When all was said and done, he retired with six All-Star Games, six World Series rings, an ERA title, two strikeout crowns, two no-hitters (in the same season, tying a record), and a plaque at Monument Park. After his retirement, he was the president of the minor league American Association and a key cog in the organization of the Red Earth Native American cultural festival. He has a stadium named in his honor at Oklahoma State University.

Among the finest pitchers not to be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, Reynolds is a true Yankees icon and one of their most important pitchers in a very productive stint in team history. Reynolds actually came very close to immortality when he fell just one vote short in the 2009 HoF cycle, when the man who was traded for him (Gordon) got in instead. Reynolds received eight votes in the Classic Baseball ERA balloting and needed nine or more. He got another shot on the 2022 ballot, falling six votes short in that crowded mix as well.

Some believe the right-hander was a borderline Hall of Famer, but even if Reynolds’ 182 career wins and 3.30 ERA are impressive, he fell a bit short of most standards considering the workloads of other arms in his era. Still, his place in Yankees’ history is undeniable.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.