MLB power rankings roundup: Red Sox climbing, though skeptics remain originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Less than a month ago, the Red Sox were a complete afterthought to the MLB season at large. Sitting in dead last in the American League at 14 games under .500, all anybody in Boston could talk about was when Craig Breslow would be fired and how many veteran pieces would be sold off at the inevitable trade deadline firesale.
Any mention of the Red Sox vying for a playoff spot might have induced some Jim Mora levels of incredulity around Boston.
Yet as you know, things changed in a hurry. The four-game sweep of the Yankees was followed by a series loss to the lowly Nationals, so eyebrows were barely raised regarding the possibility of a real Red Sox run. But three straight road sweeps over the Angels, White Sox and Mets changed the scope of the entire season.
Or did it?
We can’t really tell. Perhaps we’re too close to … everything surrounding this team.
So, in an effort to understand what the rest of the baseball world might think of the Red Sox, here’s a look at all of the MLB power rankings from the All-Star break to see where Boston stands after winning 14 of 16 games heading into the break.
MLB.com: 15th (up eight spots from 23rd)
Will Leitch wrote that “it’s fair to say that a playoff spot is looking mighty realistic.”
NBC Sports: 18th (up six spots from 24th)
“Maybe the Red Sox don’t turn out to be sellers,” wrote D.J. Short, “but they probably won’t be big buyers either as they wait for some of their big names (Garrett Crochet, Roman Anthony among them) to return.”
CBS Sports: 15th (up 10 spots from 25th)
“You can’t say enough about what Willson Contreras has meant to this offense,” wrote Matt Snyder.
Yahoo! Sports: 17th
Jordan Shusterman wrote that the All-Star break was “something of a vibe-killer” for the Red Sox, who are “on the doorstep of a wild-card spot — a shocking reality considering how bad things were going early on.”
ESPN: Tier 4 – “In it, thanks to the muddled AL”
ESPN didn’t have a straight numerical ranking, instead grouping the Red Sox with teams 15-21. ESPN placed a projected final record of 82-80 on the Red Sox, giving them 51 percent playoff odds (and 1.9 percent championship odds).
“The Red Sox should hang around the playoff picture because the roster remains talented even without the two stars [Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony] and the AL remains pedestrian,” wrote Jorge Castillo. “It’s been a remarkable turnaround. The industry expected Boston to trade off players over the next couple of weeks just a few days ago. Now Breslow could increase the team’s postseason chances by adding big league talent by the Aug. 3 deadline. A postseason spot is there for the taking and Boston should do everything possible to snatch one.”
FOX Sports: 19th (up three spots from 22nd)
USA Today: 19th (up three spots from 22nd)
Bleacher Report: 13th (up from 22)
“Jake Bennett reeling off four consecutive quality starts has also provided an unforeseeable boost,” wrote Kerry Miller. “Can they get healthy in the second half and complete the improbable comeback from a 32-46 start?”
The Big Lead: 19th
“The firesale is officially on hold,” wrote Anthony Mastro.
FanGraphs: 9th
The highest ranking of them all, FanGraphs included a caveat that its Elo system is “very reactive to recent performance.” So the 14-2 record heading into the break likely skewed some numbers.
“Since the beginning of June, only the Tigers have allowed fewer runs than the Red Sox,” Jake Mailhot wrote. “Just a few weeks ago, Boston looked like an obvious seller, but now it’s not so certain. … If the Red Sox can manage to tread water over the next month, the returns of Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony could give them a big boost down the stretch.”
Average ranking: 16th
Ultimately, the team that’s two games under .500 ranks in the middle of the pack in Major League Baseball. That’s about right.
Clearly, the reality of the past few weeks is undeniable, but everybody (outside of FanGraphs’ model) remains a bit cautious about jumping the gun and declaring the Red Sox a legitimate contender in a very weak American League. How the Red Sox handle their 10-game homestand coming out of the break will go a long way in determining the outlook for the short term and the much longer term as well.