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Houston is holding on for dear life in the AL West after dropping three of their last four, but I'm riding with them tonight as part of my Angels vs. Astros prediction.

The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Angels at Daikin Park as -170 betting favorites at Polymarket and have a strong chance to get going early and often against Grayson Rodriguez and his 7.17 ERA.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Thursday, Aug. 20, and drop a couple of winners.

Who will win Angels vs Astros today: Astros -1.5 (+114)

The Houston Astros are in a great spot to win their second consecutive game against the Los Angeles Angels' Grayson Rodriguez, who's striking out this Astros lineup at just a 16% clip.

The sample size here is large, too, as Houston has had 73 at-bats against the right-hander, owning a .280 xBA and .365 xwOBA. 

On the other side, Peter Lambert has had his way with the Angels, punching them out at a 34% clip while limiting them to a .194 xBA across 41 plate appearances. He's had seven straight starts of going at least five innings while allowing two earned runs or less - that'll do.

I'd play this up to +105.

COVERS INTEL: Yordan Alvarez is indeed in line for some positive regression against Rodriguez. While he's a career 0-for-10 against the right-hander, he's still rocking a .738 xSLG against him. Look for the MVP candidate to break out tonight and help the Astros win.

Angels vs Astros Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 Runs (+105)

The Astros are going to do most of the legwork on this play, but the Angels should do just enough to get us over the finish line.

I'm expecting a big breakout game for Alvarez against Rodriguez, with Isaac Parades (.418 xBA), Christian Walker (.390 xBA), and Yainer Diaz (.417 xBA) helping out behind him.

The Over is a perfect 7-0 in the Astros' last seven games after Houston allowed two runs or less in their previous game. After a 3-2 win last night, the trends are lining up perfectly to cash this play for us.

Angels vs Astros home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+276)

Something's gotta give in this matchup tonight between Rodriguez and Alvarez. While the AL MVP odds favorite is 0-for-10 against Rodriguez, his underlying numbers tell a different story.

Averaging an exit velocity of 96 mph in this matchup while owning a .738 xSLG, look for Yordan to put one in the stands.

Angels vs Astros weather

Daikin Park has a retractable roof, so the weather will have little to no impact on game conditions tonight.

Angels vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Angels (+163) | Astros (-170)
• Run line: Angels +1.5 (-122) | Astros -1.5 (+114)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-113)

Angels vs Astros trend

The Astros are 4-0 in Lambert's last four starts during Game 3 of a series — we'll take that. Find more MLB betting trends for Angels vs. Astros.

How to watch Angels vs Astros and game info

Angels vs Astros latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Carlos Rodón marked his return from a seven-week absence with left elbow inflammation with four strong innings against the Orioles on Tuesday. He allowed a run on two hits and two walks with four strikeouts, the lone damage a Coby Mayo solo homer in the third, as the Yankees took the series opener, 3-1, thanks to some clutch hitting from Trent Grisham. By far, the most important moments from his start were the pair of strikeouts to strand the bases loaded in the second, so let’s dive in.

We join Rodón with one out in the bottom of the second, Trent Grisham having given them the lead with a solo home run in the top half of the frame. However, he faces a serious threat after a Jazz Chisholm Jr. error on a potential inning-ending double play ball loaded the bases. Stepping to the plate is former Yankee farmhand Carlos Narváez, who memorably crushed them in three games with the Red Sox last year before getting shipped to Baltimore in the Adley Rutschman blockbuster at this year’s deadline.

To this point in the contest, Rodón’s four-seamer has been sitting at about 93-94 mph, so you can tell he senses the gravity of the situation when dialing this first-pitch heater to 96.

Austin Wells sets a high target and Rodón nails it with the four-seamer. Between the velocity, placement, and elite 19 inches of induced vertical break, Narváez swings right through the pitch underneath as the ball gives the illusion of rise on its path to home.

After the spot-on execution of that fastball, Rodón looks to keep the feeling of that release with another four-seamer to the same spot.

Rodón throws an almost identical pitch to the one before. This one had two more inches of drop than the previous one, which is why Narváez is able to foul it back rather than whiff through it. All the same, it’s an advantageous result to give Rodón all the count leverage, 0-2.

With Narváez showing a willingness to offer at the high fastball, the obvious choice is to keep climbing the ladder with the four-seamer.

Unfortunately, this pitch is a little too high and a little too high to entice the hitter to chase. Nonetheless, it is still an effective pitch to keep the hitter’s eye level looking for an elevated heater.

Rodón plays off that eye level with the classic back-foot slider.

This is the absolute perfect pitch to follow the preceding high heater. The slider looks exactly like a fastball right down the middle before diving down and in as the hitter is starting his swing, leaving Narváez no chance to make contact. Perfect release, perfect spot, perfect execution — that’s pitch sequencing at its finest.

Here’s the full sequence:

Now needing just one out to escape the jam, Rodón faces the top of the order again, Jackson Holliday stepping in after having popped out in the first. Rodón threw all fastballs — three four-seamers and three sinkers — to retire Holliday in the first, so he switches things up here with a first-pitch slider.

It’s clear Rodón’s first-inning attack plan had an effect on Holliday’s approach here. This is not a particularly good slider — in fact it’s a hanger pretty much down the middle. However, given that the pitch looks like a fastball off the plate up and in out of Rodón’s hand, he’s able to freeze Holliday for strike one looking.

Once you show the hitter that you can land your breaking ball in the zone for a called strike, it should amplify the chase potential when following it up with another bender out of the zone.

Instead, Rodón throws pretty much the same pitch as the one he just threw, another mistake slider that catches the heart of the plate. Luckily for him, it appears Holliday is still hunting the fastball given how early and off-balance this swing is to pop it weakly foul and out of play.

After getting away with a pair of mistake sliders, I wasn’t at all surprised to see Rodón change course to the four-seamer here.

Rodón hurls his fastest and best located fastball of his entire outing, and not just because of the leverage of the situation. He pinpoints this 96 mph heater right on the corner up and away, a successful ABS challenge from Wells overturning the initial ball call for the inning-ending strike three looking to strand the bases loaded. In a way, he was almost helped by the first two not-so-great sliders he threw. It feels like Holliday is now sitting on a third straight slider in this spot, meaning he is even more likely to take an up-and-away fastball given the way he saw the last two sliders move away (not that he was likely to make contact with this flawlessly executed four-seamer even if he had swung).

Here’s the full sequence:

Given Rodón had completed just a pair of rehab starts following the seven-week layoff, there was a lot to feel encouraged by in these four innings of work and particularly these two ABs. First and foremost was the four-seamer, whose velocity, shape, and command looked to be in mid-season form rather than a first MLB start in almost two months. However, I was most impressed by Rodón dialing up his focus when facing this massive early jam. Having just scored in the top of the inning, it would have stung that little bit extra to immediately throw it away, especially following the error. Rodón made some of his best pitches of the start when he needed them most. I’m sure he would love to rein in the walks which have peppered his ten starts and steadily increase the pitch count beyond the 60-70 range set for this outing, but all in all you have to feel optimistic about where he’s at.

Rodón’s somewhat surprising early activation off the IL to start this game was accompanied by an even more surprising corresponding roster move, the Yankees placing Max Fried on the 15-day IL with a recurrence of the elbow bone bruise that kept him out for over two months. While the prognosis on Fried’s injury is far more encouraging this time around, it shows how important it was for Rodón to return when he did and pitch with the sharpness he exhibited.

Any parent deserves a good seat to watch their kid hit his first minor league home run. Scott Strosnider doesn't roll that way.

Strosnider's son, Sawyer, hit his first career professional home run Wednesday, Aug. 19 for the Milwaukee Brewers' Class A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. And guess who caught the ball?

That would be dad, who, as Sawyer told MiLB.com, has a habit of roaming the stadium, restlessly watching. This time, he headed to the "party deck" at Fox Cities Stadium, just beyond the right field fence.

And Sawyer sent him a special delivery.

The 66th overall pick in last month's MLB draft ripped a pitch 103 mph off the bat and right into the hands of Scott Strosnider, who made a nifty catch - and even caught it on video. Sawyer pointed out that way as all pros do, though typically they're saluting their bullpen.

FIRST PRO HOME RUN FOR SAWYER STROSNIDER🔥

Strosnider blasted a solo shot 103 mph off the bat!

Rattlers 3 | Captains 2 #tratnationpic.twitter.com/7wpdFcPsB2

— Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (@TimberRattlers) August 19, 2026

This time it was, "Nice catch, Pops."

"My dad, he can't sit still, so he loves to run around the stadium," Strosnider said, per MLB.com. "I'll just be looking up after a foul ball or something and see him on every different side of the stadium. I think it was just the right place at the right time."

That's certainly one way to avoid negotiating with a fan for a milestone baseball.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Watch: Brewers prospect hits first pro home run and dad catches ball

Deja vu all over again – day game, trying to deny a sweep.

First pitch for Grant Holmes vs. Anthony Kay is at 2:10 pm ET.

Game Notes

Pitching preview

Lineups

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome back to Thursday Afternoon Baseball featuring the Kansas City Royals. In today’s episode, the Good Guys look for win no. 5 in a row (which would also be six out of seven) against the dastardly Athletics, who, once upon a time, called Kansas City home. Now, they’re the only team without one.

On the mound for the Royals will be Randy Dobnak, his stellar beard, and flowing locks. Dobnak, making his seventh start of the season, looks to follow up on his solid start against the Angels back on August 15th. In the game, in which he received no decision, and which the Angels ultimately won, 1-0, Dobnak pitched 5-and-2/3 innings while striking out six, walking two, allowing four hits, and giving up zero runs. Alas: he had no run support.

For the year, Dobnak is 2-1 with a 1.73 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.296 WHIP, with 25 strikeouts and 16 walks in 41-and-2/3 innings. I wouldn’t mind Dobnak returning to the Royals in 2027 (if a season happens) but only as the team’s fourth or fifth starter. Right now, I imagine next year’s rotation looking something like this:

1. Michael Wacha
2. Noah Cameron
3. Seth Lugo
4. Randy Dobnak
5. ?????

I would not be opposed to signing a starter who takes over the first slot and pushes everyone else down. Can the Royals compete with a rotation headlined by Wacha/Cameron/Lugo/Dobnak? Eh.

Also, if you’re one of those fans who doesn’t like talking about next season on August 20th, well, may I point out to you the standings? Wins and losses are moot at this point. Contention is out the window. Let a man dream.

Back to the here and now: the Royals face another lefty today, this one named Gage Jump. Reminds me of Jame Gumb. It puts the lotion on its skin. Anyway, Gumb—I mean, Jump—is only 23, a rookie, and not having a bad year. He’s been a bright spot on this blight of a season for the Nomadletics: 5-7, 4.50 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.449 WHIP, 85 strikeouts, 37 walks over 15 games started in which he’s pitched a total of 78 innings. The A’s drafted him just two years about out of LSU.

Facing a lefty, you get the Royals’ lefty lineup:

Carter Jensen receives off the afternoon with Luke Maile behind the dish, Salvador Perez manning first, and Vinnie Pasquantino DHing. In case you missed it, Starling Marte is no longer available off the bench, as the Royals released him this morning. I’m sad that didn’t work out.

No active Royal has faced Jump.

With Pasquantino and Maikel Garcia back in the lineup the past few games, the Royals look like they have 7/9 of a decent lineup. For next season, I’d like a different left fielder and for Salvy to move permanently to a back-up role. Kyle Isbel and Tyler Tolbert could platoon in center.

For SacramentoLas Vegas the Athletics

Not much to say about this lineup. Lawrence Butler has struggled. No Nick Kurtz again. He’s only on the 10-day IL, but hasn’t played since July 31st. I wouldn’t be surprised if they shut him down entirely.

Uh…yeah. That’s about it. Behold the lineup for the worst team in baseball.

First pitch at 1:10.

Its a Thursday afternoon, and everyone is all grouchy after last night’s loss.

Seems like a good time to offer up a trivia question.

Once again, a couple of rules…

1 — Put a spoiler over your answer in the comments.

2 — Don’t go digging around on baseball sites to try to discover the answer. This is a trivia question, not a scavenger hunt.

Here is an alphabetical list of professional baseball pitchers:

Greg Maddux

Terry Mulholland

Chan Ho Park

Curt Schilling

John Smoltz

These pitchers are all tied for first place in a very specific category involving them doing the most of something.

Can you guess what category that is?

I will provide an update with the answer later on today.

When Edward Cabrera returned from his injury, Craig Counsell announced that he’d go back in the rotation and David Peterson would go to the bullpen.

Welp. As you know, Cabrera’s start was a disaster and he wound up back on the injured list with a blister. Earlier this week I had asked you in the SB Nation Reacts survey who you’d like to see in the rotation to replace Cabrera.

Here are the results:

The majority got their wish, as Peterson will be added back to the rotation this weekend. He’s now the scheduled starter for Saturday against the Mariners in Seattle.

Peterson did make one relief appearance during his “banishment,” 1.1 scoreless innings and 22 pitches during the Cubs’ win over the White Sox on Monday. So he’ll be going on normal rest in Saturday’s game and with that low pitch count Monday, should be able to (hopefully) go deep into the game.

The question remains: When Cabrera is eligible to return from the IL, should he go back in the rotation? I’m pretty sure the answer from most of you will be “no,” as Peterson has been quite effective since that awful start against the Cardinals in early July. In seven games since then: 2.06 ERA, 1.229 WHIP, 3.86 FIP and the Cubs won six of those seven games.

Cabrera might actually be quite effective out of the pen. He throws hard — up to 97 — and that 94 mile per hour changeup is a good out pitch when he has it working. And throwing one inning at a time might help him with his blister issue.

As always, we await developments.

Here are the results of the national question asked this week.

This is something with which I concur. The Diamondbacks, for example, made the postseason in 2023 with a negative run differential — 746 runs scored, 761 allowed. They were 84-78. Of course, with wild card teams you’re going to likely have some near-.500 teams in the postseason and in fact, this year there could be more than one with the American League Wild Card race currently with six teams within 1.5 games of the last wild card spot, every one of them under .500. And the AL West-leading Astros are only one game over .500.

All you have to do is get in and get hot for four weeks in October.

The Cubs, most likely, are a 92-95 win team and don’t have to worry about that — but still will have to have four hot weeks in October. Make it so.

This edition of SB Nation Reacts is sponsored by FanDuel.

After winning 22-0 in Tuesday night’s series opener, the Brewers dropped last night’s game 7-5 against the Mariners, as Dustin May got off to a very shaky start, but the bullpen did all they could to keep Milwaukee in the game.

The Crew will look to bounce back for a series victory in Thursday afternoon’s rubber match, as left-hander Robert Gasser gets the ball opposite George Kirby for Seattle.

Gasser, 27, has made 14 starts this season, with a 3-5 record, 4.54 ERA, 4.60 FIP, and 68 strikeouts across 73 1/3 innings. He went 6 1/3 innings against the Dodgers his last time out, allowing three runs on eight hits (two homers) and a walk while striking out seven in a 3-1 Brewer loss.

Kirby, 28, has made 23 starts this year, with an 8-9 record, 3.89 ERA, 3.78 FIP, and 114 strikeouts across 136 2/3 innings. He’s coming off a no-decision, as he went 4 2/3 innings against the Astros, allowing five runs on eight hits (one homer) and three walks, striking out two.

Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, and Jake Bauers sit at the top of Milwaukee’s order, followed by Gary Sánchez, Christian Yelich, and Joey Ortiz, who moves up to the six spot in the order after a strong month and a half. Garrett Mitchell, David Hamilton, and Luis Lara round things out.

First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. on Brewers TV and the Brewers Radio Network.