Put the bullpen in order of leverage: highest to lowest

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 08: Jhoan Duran #59 of the Philadelphia Phillies smiles during batting practice prior to Game Three of the National League Division Series presented by Booking.com between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday, October 8, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Think about the bullpen that the Phillies were putting together when 2025 was beginning. Names like Jose Ruiz and Carlos Hernandez were prominent. Stuff was hard to find. In short, it wasn’t a good bullpen.

Fast forward to now: the bullpen is probably the strength of this team. Is it the best way to construct a roster? Probably not. Had they had their druthers, the Phillies would rather their offense or starting pitching lead the way. That still may become a reality. They do have a few top level starters in the rotation with another on his way back from injury. The offense has some potential to have some MVP level seasons from a few starters, but if we were being honest right now, the bullpen is very good.

So, what’s the best order in terms of leverage when considering the bullpen? Obviously, in the highest leverage situation, Jhoan Duran would be the one who gets the ball (all things being equal). After that, situational preference would rule the day. But if this were in a vacuum, what is the best order?

Jets vs Panthers Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s NHL Game

The Winnipeg Jets and Florida Panthers face off for the second time in 10 days following a tight 2-1 shootout win for the back-to-back Stanley Cup champs in their first meeting.

Despite a low-scoring battle last time, I’m expecting a different story with plenty of goals this time around. I’ll break down why I’m on the Over in my Jets vs. Panthers predictions and NHL picks for Saturday, January 31.

Jets vs Panthers prediction

Jets vs Panthers best bet: Over 5.5 (-130)

It’s no secret that the Winnipeg Jets have suffered from subpar goaltending this season.

Winnipeg owns an .896 team SV% (18th), while reigning Hart and Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck, is carrying just a .902 SV% himself.

That’s translated to the Jets allowing more than three goals per game this season and cashing the Over in 59.6% of their contests — the sixth-highest rate in the NHL.

The Florida Panthers have a reputation as a defensive juggernaut, but the reigning back-to-back Stanley Cup champions have not been the same team this season.

The Cats are giving up 3.57 GPG since the calendar flipped to 2026 — the sixth-worst mark in the league over that span. Florida has also cashed the Over in 58.5% of its games this season.

Both teams give up a lot of goals. Give me the Over this afternoon.

Jets vs Panthers same-game parlay

Josh Morrissey is having another productive season despite the Jets’ struggles.

Morrissey ranks among the Top 10 in points among blueliners and has excelled at getting pucks on net. The Jets defenseman has Over 1.5 shots on goal in five of his last six games.

Mark Scheifele has been hot to start the new year with a team-leading eight goals in 15 games. The Jets center has four goals in his last six road contests. 

Jets vs Panthers SGP

  • Over 5.5
  • Josh Morrissey Over 1.5 shots on goal
  • Mark Scheifele anytime goal

Jets vs Panthers odds

  • Moneyline: Jets +128 | Panthers -154
  • Puck Line: Jets +1.5 | Panthers -1.5
  • Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6

Jets vs Panthers trend

The Jets have hit the Over in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.80 Units / 35% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Jets vs. Panthers.

How to watch Jets vs Panthers

LocationAmerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL
DateSaturday, January 31, 2026
Puck drop4:00 p.m. ET
TVTSN3, SCRIPPS

Jets vs Panthers latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Spurs vs Hornets Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's NBA Game

One of the best teams in the Western Conference heads east to face one of the hottest teams in the Association when the San Antonio Spurs take on the Charlotte Hornets at Spectrum Center tonight.

The Hornets are surging, and my Spurs vs. Hornets predictions expect Charlotte to cover the spread as a home underdog.

Here are my best free NBA picks for this marquee matinee on Saturday, January 31.

Spurs vs Hornets prediction

Spurs vs Hornets best bet: Hornets +4 (-110)

The Charlotte Hornets are hot right now, and despite the strong play of the San Antonio Spurs, the home team has been too good to be spotted four points.

Injuries have plagued Charlotte for much of the season, but a healthy roster has yielded favorable results.

The Hornets finished January tied for the best point differential on the road in a single month in NBA history at +151 across 11 games. Charlotte is +31 across its last five home games.

Charlotte is 10-6 straight up and ATS across its last 16 games and currently owns a five-game win streak. In that 16-game span, Charlotte is +182, good for 11.7 points per game better than its opponents.

The Hornets are 28-21 ATS this season, while the Spurs are 24-23-1. San Antonio is 4-6-1 as the road favorite, while Charlotte is 9-7 as the home underdog.

I wouldn't be surprised if the home team earns another victory, but I'm confident they can keep it close regardless of the outcome. Give me the Hornets and the points

Spurs vs Hornets same-game parlay

The Spurs are 18-30 to the Under, and the Hornets are 20-29. Charlotte has hit the Under in two of its last three overall and two of its last three at home. San Antonio is 1-9 to the Under across its last 10 outings.

Brandon Miller is averaging 21.6 points per game at home this season, and he's scored 21+ in nine of 15 at Spectrum Center. He's scored 20+ in nine straight games, and he's reached 21 or more in four straight and eight of nine, averaging 24.6 points in that span.

Spurs vs Hornets SGP

  • Hornets +4 
  • Under 225.5 
  • Brandon Miller Over 20.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: King of the Castle!

Stephon Castle has averaged 7.8 assists across his last eight outings, handing out at least eight dimes six times in that span. The Hornets have allowed the ninth-most assists per game this season, giving Castle a favorable matchup on the road.

Spurs vs Hornets SGP

  • Hornets +4 
  • Under 225.5 
  • Brandon Miller Over 20.5 points
  • Stephon Castle Over 7.5 assists

Spurs vs Hornets odds

  • Spread: Spurs -4 (-110) | Hornets +4 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Spurs-170 | Hornets +145
  • Over/Under: Over 225.5 (-110) | Under 225.5 (-110)

Spurs vs Hornets betting trend to know

The Charlotte Hornets have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+15.10 Units / 45% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Spurs vs. Hornets.

How to watch Spurs vs Hornets

LocationSpectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
DateSaturday, January 31, 2026
Tip-off3:00 p.m. ET
TVPrime Video

Spurs vs Hornets latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

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Guardians News and Notes: Guardians Announce Non-Roster Invites

CHICAGO, IL - AUGUST 12: Codi Heuer #57 of the Detroit Tigers pitches during an MLB game against the Chicago White Sox on August 12, 2025, at Rate Field in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Patrick Gorski/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Guardians put out a list of non-roster players invited to big league spring training. That list was incomplete. The complete list is below:

Pitchers:

Pedro Avila, RHP, Tanner Burns, RHP, Aaron Davenport, RHP, Trenton Denholm, RHP, Will Dion, LHP, Carlos Hernandez, RHP, Codi Heuer, LHP, Jack Leftwich, RHP, Tommy Mace, RHP, Jake Miller, RHP, Steven Perez, LHP, Trevor Stephan, RHP, and Ryan Webb, LHP.

Catchers:

Cameron Barstad, LHH, Jacob Cozart, LHH, Kody Huff, RHH, Cooper Ingle, LHH, and Dom Nunez, RHH.

Infielders:

Travis Bazzana, LHH, Dayan Fries, SH, Carter Kieboom, RHH, Milan Tolentino, LHH, and Ralphy Velazquez, LHH.

Outfielders:

Wuilfredo Antunez, LHH, Stuart Fairchild, RHH, and Alfonsin Rosario, RHH.

A great list! I thought maybe Kahl Stephen would be on it, but folks come over from minor league camp regularly so expect to see him as well.

Dodgers notes: Jackson Ferris, Ching-Hsien Ko, Austin Barnes

SPRINGFIELD, MO - JUNE 10: Jackson Ferris #10 of the Tulsa Drillers pitches during the game between the Tulsa Drillers and the Springfield Cardinals at Hammons Field on Tuesday, June 10, 2025 in Springfield, Missouri. (Photo by Shanna Stafford/Minor League Baseball via Getty Images)

We’ve had a pair of top-100 prospect lists drop in each of the last two weeks, with between four and seven Dodgers included on those lists. But with those list also comes further analysis of the minor leagues, both with individual players and farm systems as a whole.

Taiwanese outfielder Ching-Hsien Ko was one of 11 prospects who just missed making the top 100 at The Athletic, with Keith Law very high on the 19-year-old who ended last season with Class-A Rancho Cucamonga: “Ko is going to end up hitting for power, though, as he’s 6-foot-3 and already north of his listed 215, with quick hands and good rhythm to the swing.”

Jackson Ferris was ranked the No. 126 prospect in baseball by Kiley McDaniel at ESPN, who praised the left-hander as one of a handful of pitchers who could someday carry a heavy major league workload. “He’ll probably need to take one more step forward in stuff or command to actually hit 200 innings in the big leagues, but the ceiling is there,” McDaniel wrote.

The Athletic and ESPN also this week ranked farm systems, with the Dodgers ranked No. 2 in the former (in the top tier along with the Milwaukee Brewers and Seattle Mariners) and rated fourth in the latter.

“They aren’t the No. 1 farm system in the sport anymore, but they are tied for first with the Rays in ‘quality depth,’ which is just the total number of prospects they have graded above 40 FV [Future Value],” McDaniel wrote at ESPN.

We’ll have more prospect talk soon as Baseball Prospectus is expected to unveil their top-101 list next week.

Battery of moves

The Mets on Thursday signed longtime Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes to a minor league contract with a non-roster invitation to spring training, and also signed one-time Dodgers reliever Craig Kimbrel to a minors deal as well. Should Barnes reach the majors with New York, he’ll join a surprisingly large list of catchers to play for both the Dodgers and Mets.

That group includes Mike Piazza, Gary Carter, Todd Hundley, Paul Lo Duca, Sandy Alomar Jr., Rod Barajas, Gary Bennett, Henry Blanco, Chris Cannizzaro, Travis d’Arnaud, Jerry Grote, Brent Mayne, Jason Phillips, Joe Pignatano, Norm Sherry, Rick Wilkins, and Tom Wilson.

Chicago Cubs news and notes — Hoerner, Rizzo, Suzuki

Reese McGuire is now a Brewer. The Cubs have officially signed three players. There are still two to go.

NBC is getting a deal — Anthony Rizzo is going to be good. His articulation and engaging personality will serve him well in that capacity.

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Food For Thought:

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Orioles news: Orioles showing interest in Giolito

Sep 6, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Boston Red Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito (54) pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the third inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images | Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

Good morning Birdland,

There has been a whole lotta smoke around the Orioles’ hunt for a starting pitcher this week.

A few days ago, Jon Heyman described the O’s as “in” on Zac Gallen, alongside the Cubs and the Diamondbacks. On Friday, Heyman reported that the Orioles are also keeping tabs on Lucas Giolito. All of this is happening while many in the industry still believe that Framber Valdez ends up in Baltimore. And don’t forget Ken Rosenthal’s report from earlier in the month that said Justin Verlander was an option for the team as well.

All of this would seem to indicate two thing:

  1. The Orioles are going to get at least one more major league arm in the near future, whether it is one of the names mentioned, or someone else entirely.
  2. They want each of these pitchers (or maybe Valdez, in particular) to know that they have other options, so let’s get this thing moving.

It is ideal for both the players and the team to have a deal in place prior to the start of spring training. Then they can have a full, normal preseason rather than playing catchup later on. Players that get into camp later often struggle out of the gate. Look no further than Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery in 2024. That could be the reason for the renewed urgency the last few days.

Valdez still feels like the far and away preference here. But there are worries. The 32-year-old is also going to be the most expensive, comes with draft pick compensation, and has some character worries after he seemingly intentionally crossed up his catcher Cesar Salazar last year. And if he is holding out for some offer that isn’t going to come, the Orioles may have to move on.

Gallen will also cost a draft pick, and he is coming off of a poor season. The argument for him would be that, other than 2025, he has a great track record and might still have enough in the tank to bounce back in a big way. It’s a risk though.

Verlander is probably the most predictable of the bunch. You know what you’re gonna get, and it’s not bad! He’s a veteran pitcher that knows how to compete. But he isn’t the ace he once was, and there are injury concerns with an aging arm.

Giolito feels like a fallback plan. His 3.41 ERA last year over 145 innings looks solid, but his 4.99 xERA and 7.51 K/9 are scary. Most of his metrics paint him as a below-average big league starter in 2025. So he probably isn’t the “playoff starter” the Orioles would hope to add.

All of these guys have warts. If the Orioles want someone with more upside and less risk, they probably need to look for a trade. But it’s a tough time of year to do that. Spring training is nearly here. Most teams want to start thinking about the start of the season. They don’t want to go looking for an addition to their rotation if they don’t have to. So any big trades will probably need to wait until July.

Links

Rogers reflects on magical 2025 season | Roch Kubatko
The Orioles’ continued search for upgrades to their rotation won’t matter much if Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish perform to the best of their ability. They have the potential to be the best duo in baseball. We just haven’t seen them together for extended periods of time yet.

Orioles Interested In Lucas Giolito | MLB Trade Rumors
Here is a bit more on the Giolito connection as well as the Orioles payroll situation. In short: they have flexibility to do something big. Giolito would not exactly fit that definition.

More Orioles played through injuries last year than we knew. How might things change in 2026? | The Baltimore Banner
It certainly feels like Mike Elias is building more contingencies into the roster this year than he did in 2025. The outfield has decent flexibility. If they add one more starting pitcher, that unit will be in a good spot as well. You can’t safeguard against every possible disaster, but Elias has done a nice job.

Measuring Orioles’ starting rotation against AL East rivals | Baltimore Baseball
The entire division has really intriguing rotations. The Red Sox and Blue Jays have been aggressive in adding reinforcements. The Yankees have tons of star power. The Rays always seem to churn out high-quality arms. And the Orioles have some serious upside in their arms, but oodles of risk too. It is going to be interesting!

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

  • Cole Irvin turns 32 today. The lefty spent parts of two seasons with the Orioles from 2023-24. Irvin was expected to be an innings-eater at the back of the O’s rotation, but it never really stuck. Ultimately, he had a 4.68 ERA over 184.2 total innings before he was waived.
  • Joel Bennett celebrates his 56th birthday. He appeared in two games out of the Orioles bullpen in 1998.

This day in O’s history

2010 – Former Orioles infielder Melvin Mora signs a one-year deal with the Rockies. He had been released a few months earlier so the O’s could sign Garrett Atkins. Mora, at 38 years old, was well past his prime, but Atkins ends up being an unmitigated disaster in 2010, released in July.

2024 – The Angelos family announces a $1.725 billion deal to sell majority ownership of the Baltimore Orioles to a group led by David Rubenstein and including Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. The deal still requires approval from MLB owners.

This Week in Purple: Baseball month starts tomorrow

SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 17: A general view of the entrance to the Rockies training facility at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 17, 2024 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Kyle Cooper/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Today is the last day of January, which means tomorrow is February. Just one major sporting event stands between us and the start of baseball season (or two, if you count the Waste Management Phoenix Open this weekend).

Last weekend was Rockies Fest, and the organization laid out their plans for the future. We’ve learned a lot, and will continue to do so over the coming weeks. Additionally, they’ve made a flurry of roster moves and will likely continue to do so. But regardless, there are just 12 days until pitchers and catchers report!

And here’s what our staff had to say this week:

To Read (Rockpiles)

To Read (PuRPs)

Full Stream

To Read (Other)

Weekend Discussion Topics

If Hollywood to remake Moneyball as a Rockies-centered movie, which players and coaches would be featured, and who would play each of them? Let us know your thoughts!


Please keep in mind our Purple Row Community Guidelines when you’re commenting. Thanks!

Konnor Griffin boosts Pirates in minor league rankings

Pittsburgh Pirates v Minnesota Twins

Pittsburgh Pirates prospect Konnor Griffin is one of the most intriguing players in minor league baseball, as he sits at number one in MLB.com’s top 100 prospect rankings.

Griffin, 19, batted .333 in 122 games last season with Bradenton, Greensboro and Altoona, making him someone to watch right out of the gates. He is a big reason why the Pirates rank No. 3 in ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel’s farm system rankings.

“The way these dollar figures and thus the farm rankings are calculated is based on work by Craig Edwards at FanGraphs (now of the MLBPA), using historical outcomes married to the FV (future value) system that my colleagues and I used at FanGraphs and that I continue to use here. An interesting but not surprising result of this system is that the top prospect in baseball is worth a lot more than the next few, like over 40% more. Sometimes, the gap between those two prospects isn’t that big; sometimes, it’s huge. Obviously, future Hall of Famers tend to be at the top spot, so you can see how this occurred in the empirical data,“ McDaniel wrote.

“Because of that, the Pirates’ figure is boosted by Griffin residing in the top spot in the whole sport. And my point here is that he is the top prospect by a lot — he basically broke the algorithm I made to help with this process — so the gap between him and the next few prospects feels correct this time. If you were to simply take Griffin out of the Pirates’ system, they’d drop to the middle of these rankings; and since Griffin might break camp with the big league team, that could happen as soon as a few months into the major league season. And second-ranked prospect Bubba Chandler (12th in the top 100) likely graduates early in the season too.“

The only teams that ranked ahead of the Pirates on the list were the Milwaukee Brewers and Cleveland Guardians. While Griffin is an outlier for the Pirates, it gives the team a lot to look forward to in the future. Griffin’s early returns have been excellent, and that’s why the Pirates felt comfortable moving him all the way to Double-A just months after he was drafted.

Baseball teams aren’t built off of one or two players, but finding a way to land a superstar is difficult. If Pittsburgh has a pitcher in Paul Skenes and a hitter in Griffin, that shouldn’t go unnoticed.

BD community, what are your thoughts on Griffin and the team’s ranking in the minor league rankings? Chime off in the comments section below.

Preview: Matinee in Motown

DENVER, COLORADO - MARCH 25: J.T. Compher #37 of the Detroit Red Wings and Nathan MacKinnon #29 of the Colorado Avalanche fight for the puck during the second period of the game at Ball Arena on March 25, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Ashley Potts/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images

Many have wondered how the Colorado Avalanche would handle adversity after such a prolonged run of unrivaled success to start this season.

Adversity came in spades throughout January, but the Avalanche have one more chance to finish the month on a positive note, but they’ll have to do it against their longtime (and much improved) rival, the Detroit Red Wings.

Colorado Avalanche (35-8-9)

The Opponent: Detroit Red Wings (32-17-6)

Time: 11:00 A.M. MST/1:00 P.M. EST

Watch: ABC/ESPN (US National Broadcast), SN+/SNE/SNO/SNP (Canadian National Broadcast)

Listen: Altitude Sports Radio KKSE-FM 92.5 FM

Colorado Avalanche

Today’s game is the final game of a four game road trip, and the first of a home and home series with Detroit, who will fly out to Denver to wrap up the season series against the Avalanche on Monday night at Ball Arena. The Avalanche are coming off consecutive losses to the Ottawa Senators and Montréal Canadiens in consecutive nights, losing both games by a combined score of 12-5. The Avs looked limp and lifeless as Ottawa shelled Mackenzie Blackwood for five goals on Wednesday night, and Scott Wedgewood fared worse as Montréal pumped seven goals—including two from behind the goal line—behind him on Thursday.

Despite feeling his team put together a more competitive effort against Montréal than what they showed in Ottawa, head coach Jared Bednar noted the struggles that his team is having on both ends of the ice. “We’re having trouble putting the puck in the net; we’re having trouble keeping it out of our net right now, too […] It’s kind of tough sledding for us right now, but we’ve got to be a little better in some areas again than we were tonight.”

Brock Nelson has continued to shine bright for the Avs in the goal scoring department, scoring four goals in his last three games. His 28 goals rank second to League leader Nathan MacKinnon (38), and his 47 points are good for fourth place on the team. MacKinnon, however, has not scored a goal since January 19 against Washington. The goal scoring drought isn’t limited to just MacKinnon; Martin Nečas hasn’t scored since January 12 against Toronto.

When asked about the lack of production from both MacKinnon and Martin Nečas, Bednar said, “It’s not like they’re not doing some good things, because they did. They’re creating some chances; they’re not scoring on them like they normally would, right? Part of it is that, you’re going to finish off some of the chances, so I think they fall into that category.”

Currently, the Avs sport a 5-6-2 record for the month of January. Without a win today, the Avs will finish with a sub-500 record for a given calendar month since going 5-6-0 in October 2024. Despite their struggles this month, they still remain the undisputed leader across the Central Division, Western Conference, and League standings. With three games remaining on their schedule before the Olympic break, they’re not in any danger of losing much ground to the third second place Minnesota Wild or the Dallas Stars prior to heading to Italy.

The Avs have won three of their last four regular season games against Detroit, including the most recent matchup on March 25, 2025, by a 5-2 decision.

Projected Lineup

Forwards:
Artturi Lehkonen – Nathan MacKinnon – Martin Nečas
Victor Olofsson – Brock Nelson – Valeri Nichushkin
Ross Colton – Jack Drury – Gavin Brindley
Zakhar Bardakov – Parker Kelly – Joel Kiviranta

Defense:
Sam Malinski – Cale Makar
Josh Manson – Brent Burns
Keaton Middleton – Sam Girard

Between the Pipes:
Mackenzie Blackwood
Scott Wedgewood

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit currently sits in second place in the Atlantic Division standings, just two points shy of the first place Tampa Bay Lightning. Given the packed standings in the Eastern Conference, a playoff spot isn’t guaranteed at this point in the season, but Detroit’s chances of seeing their first playoff berth in nine seasons is looking more and more likely. With the franchise currently celebrating its centennial season, a return to the postseason would be a noteworthy accomplishment to commemorate the occasion.

Detroit has fared better than Colorado throughout the month of January overall, going 6-2-2 in their previous ten games. However, Detroit has lost two of their current three game home stand at Little Caesars Arena, losing 3-1 to the Los Angeles Kings on Tuesday evening, and a 4-3 shootout loss to the Washington Capitals on Thursday. Despite the loss, right winger Patrick Kane recorded his 1,375 point of his career to become the highest scoring American-born player in the NHL, surpassing one-time former Red Wing Mike Modano.

Alex DeBrincat currently leads Detroit in goals (30), and is one point shy of the team lead in overall points behind Lucas Raymond (58). Raymond also leads the team in assists (40). Team captain Dylan Larkin ranks second on the team behind DeBrincat in goals (25) and third in points (48).

Goaltender John Gibson, who was acquired from the Anaheim Ducks during the offseason, is enjoying a bit of a renaissance in his first full season with Detroit. He currently has 21 wins on the season, the most he’s had since the 2018-2019 season (26), and setting a new career high in wins (Gibson won 31 games during the 2017-2018 season) isn’t out of the question, but if Detroit has its sights set on the postseason, Gibson’s career best will have to come this spring.

Detroit’s last victory over Colorado came on February 22, 2024, a 2-1 victory on an overtime goal from Kane.

Projected Lineup

Forwards:
Marco Kasper – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
Alex DeBrincat – Andrew Copp – Patrick Kane
Emmitt Finnie – J.T. Compher – James van Riemsdyk
Elmer Söderblom – Michael Rasmussen – Mason Appleton

Defense:
Jacob Bernard-Docker – Moritz Seider
Axel Sandin-Pellikka – Ben Chiarot
Albert Johansson – Travis Hamonic

Between the Pipes:
John Gibson
Cam Talbot

Should the Mavericks Trade Naji Marshall?

DALLAS, TEXAS - JANUARY 24: Naji Marshall #13 of the Dallas Mavericks is defended by Luka Doncic #77 of the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at American Airlines Center on January 24, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images) | Getty Images

The trade deadline is less than a week away, and the Mavericks are expected to be active. Following Anthony Davis’s injury that derailed any trade talks for the 10-time All-Star, the focus has shifted to other key rotational pieces for the Mavericks. Naji Marshall, in particular, has been a player teams have reportedly been making calls on. Should the Mavericks consider dealing him? Should they hang onto him as a building piece around Cooper Flagg? Let’s take a look at both sides.

The Case for Trading Marshall

Naji Marshall is a fan-favorite, and it’s easy to see why. The six-year veteran forward is averaging career highs this season in points per game (14.7), rebounds (4.9), and assists (3.0). Marshall also ranks 16th in the NBA in field goal percentage at 54.4%. In his last seven games, he’s averaging 20.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. Half of his production this season is coming off the bench, all the more impressive, which makes him an attractive piece to many teams.

The NBA doesn’t have many Naji Marshalls anymore—gritty, grindy, competitive guys who can do it all. Many fringe contenders are thirsty for wings, especially those that can create and defend. Marshall is a versatile wing who can guard one through four and can also be the catalyst for running an offense, especially coming off the bench. The playoffs rely heavily on bench depth, and Marshall is the perfect missing piece many teams could talk themselves into pursuing.

The Mavericks have been adamant in the asking price for Marshall – at least one future first round pick, according to NBA Insider Marc Stein. It’s widely believed some teams would be willing to meet Dallas’s demands.

Naji Marshall just turned 28. Cooper Flagg just turned 19. Every roster building decision the Mavericks make moving forward should be based on Flagg’s timeline. Although Marshall is a fun watch and a great locker room guy, Dallas has to prioritize accumulating future assets to build around Flagg. If a team calls offering a decent first round pick selection, the Mavs should consider taking it.

The Nico Harrison timeline and vision of competing now is done and out the window. The focus should be on building a championship team around Flagg’s timeline. Naji Marshall doesn’t fit that. The second part of this is the money. Marshall is on the second year of his team-friendly deal of $27 million over three years. After next season, He’ll be due a much larger pay day. As of now, Dallas doesn’t have the financial flexibility for a Marshall pay raise. And even if they did, giving a larger contract to a player that would be about to turn 30 doesn’t make much sense.

Dallas has an opportunity to surround Flagg with younger talent that fits with his timeline. Teams are calling, and the Mavs should be listening.

The Case for Keeping Marshall

The other side of the coin is keeping him and hoping the Mavericks can flip other players like Daniel Gafford, Klay Thompson, and Anthony Davis. Doing so would give Dallas opportunities to accumulate future picks while finding financial flexibility. Dallas can’t be bad and be a second-apron team. That’s a nightmare scenario.

Keeping a guy like Naji Marshall could be beneficial for Dallas’s hopes in getting back into the playoff picture for next year. As of now, Dallas does not control its own pick from 2027 through 2030. Meaning the Mavs have no motivation to be bad and hope for more draft luck. Going into next season, the organization will likely want to refocus on competing in the West once again.

Naji Marshall would be a key player in a deep (and hopefully healthier) roster next season. Kyrie Irving coming back would fix many of the point guard woes the Mavs have endured this season. Plug in a healthy (again – hopefully) Dereck Lively II, plus Max Christie, P.J Washington, and year two of Cooper Flagg, you have some real pieces that could make Dallas at minimum a .500 team next season. Dallas would also have a top 10 pick from the 2026 draft to add to this mix. And what if the Mavericks don’t trade Anthony Davis? All of a sudden, you could talk yourself into this team being a top six team in the West next season. Naji Marshall would be an important piece of that roster.

Marshall is also a durable player. He’s only missed one game this season and is the definition of reliable when it comes to health in Dallas (and boy, have the Mavs needed it). He shows up, plays hard every night, competes, and hits floaters in his sleep. Naji Marshalls don’t just grow on trees and having his energy on both ends is crucial if the Mavs want to take a big leap forward in the win column next year.

If you look at the roster and think a healthy Mavericks team could contend next year, it’s easy to see Naji Marshall being a part of that. Dallas will still have to make moves to create more financial flexibility, but that doesn’t necessarily have to involve Naji Marshall. It would get more complicated at the end of next season once his contract is set to expire, but that’s a bridge that could be crossed at that time. For now, he’s been a silver lining in a largely disappointing season for Dallas.

Trade Deadline is February 5th

The trade deadline is next Thursday, February 5th, at 3 PM EST. The Mavericks have some important decisions to make. Perhaps the most important is should Dallas keep Marshall and try to run it back next year with a healthier roster? Or reshape the timeline around Cooper Flagg and focus on the future?

Swingman Nick Martinez is a good fit for the Tigers’ needs

SACRAMENTO, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 13: Nick Martinez #28 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches against the Athletics during the fifth inning at Sutter Health Park on September 13, 2025 in Sacramento, California. (Photo by Scott Marshall/Getty Images) | Getty Images

We’ve broken down most of the notable free agent pitchers still left on the board this offseason, but one the Detroit Tigers have at least checked in on that we haven’t covered yet is right-hander Nick Martinez. The 35-year-old just spent two seasons starting for the Cincinnati Reds, and while his stuff doesn’t wow you, he knows how to pitch and get results. At this point that’s probably all the Tigers are really looking for with spring training now just over two weeks away.

Over those two seasons with the Reds, Martinez has put together a very nice 3.83 ERA across 308 innings of work. His strikeout rate is just 18.5 percent, well below average for a major league starter, but his 4.8 percent walk rate is outstanding. Just as impressive is a home run rate of just 1.0 HR/9, despite the fact that Martinez isn’t a big ground ball guy, instead getting a pretty even mix of fly balls and grounders, and was working in Great American Ballpark. Martinez made 42 starts in those two seasons, but had 82 appearances overall.

This is another feature the Tigers are no doubt intrigued by. You’re getting a solid backend starter who has smoothly moved between roles as required for the past few years, and generally been quite good out of the bullpen. Of course, other teams like that flexibility too. Jon Heyman has reported that the Yankees have checked in on Martinez recently, and they’re not alone.

There’s a pool of eight to ten starting pitchers left in free agency who seem certain to get a major league deal. Only Framber Valdez is the proven frontline starter of that group, but there are plenty of solid starters with some upside remaining. Martinez doesn’t really stand out among them except for that versatility, but that trait may create a competitive, if small in scale, market for him over the next few weeks. If he’s really set on pitching for a more star studden contender than the Tigers, he’s probably going to have that opportunity. Let’s look at Martinez anyway.

The Miami, Florida native was originally the 18th round pick for the Rangers way back in 2011 out of Fordham College. He broke in with the major league club in 2014. Martinez had some success over the next few years, but really cratered in 2017 and ultimately pitched for the Nippon Ham-Fighters and the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks before the Padres picked him up for the 2022-2023 seasons. He was much improved, and after both years, he exercised player options and tested free agency, and the Reds plucked him on a two-year deal the second time around.

As a starter in 2025, Martinez posted a 2.61 ERA across 20 2/3 innings of work, while his 4.72 ERA as a starter covered 145 innings of his 165 2/3 total innings worked. Still, his 4.32 FIP as a starter, versus his 4.39 FIP in relief, says that the distinction may not really be that signficant. Martinez gave up a much higher rate of home runs in a starting role as you’d expect. It’s a deep mix of pitches, but he’s not overpowering. Still, the limited walks and plentiful weak contact often kept the damage limited even on off nights.

Martinez’s most used offering last year was his 89.1 mph cutter, but he throws similar amounts of his 92.5 mph fourseamer and sinker. He used the fouresamer 20.7 percent, and the sinker 17.1 percent, so it’s just hard for hitters to know which is coming from pitch to pitch. He’ll throw sliders at 84.9 mph,and curveballs at 79.8 mph, but the better pitch is his 81 mph changeup, and he uses that as much as both breaking balls combined.

That’s a deep, six pitch mix, and the fact that he posts well below average walk rates commanding six different offerings is pretty impressive. It also makes it very hard for hitters to guess what’s coming from pitch to pitch, and so he limits home runs well until they get at least a second look at him.

None of these pitches grade as plus, but from year to year they’re all roughly average offerings. The one exception in 2025 was the fourseamer, which did get hit a little harder than usual. Still, Martinez’s velocity has been pretty consistent throughout his career, particularly the last two seasons. There’s no sign that he’s losing anything, and at the same time his walk rates and overall strike throwing have gotten quite a bit better than his career averages.

If this all sounds pretty familiar, yes Tyler Holton certainly comes to mind. While the Tigers’ lefty stalwart is more of a ground ball pitcher, the style is very similar. Employ a deep mix that can be tailored to either-handed hitters, and command everything to a well above average degree. Martinez is basically a right-handed Tyler Holton with a lot more starting experience.

A pitcher like this can really tie a pitching staff together and they’re in need of some reinforcement. Martinez has a lot more experience as a starter in recent years, but if things somehow pan out perfectly and the Tigers don’t need him to start, now you’ve got a right-hander and a lefty in the pen that can get anyone out and go more than three outs whenever required.

Martinez presumably wants a shot at a starting gig, and the Tigers can provide at least that opportunity. But he’s also been through all the wars and is very much the type who does whatever is required to see his team win. After struggling some early in his career with the Texas Rangers, Martinez moved to Japan and spent the next four years perfectly his crafty stylings in the NPB. He returned with an extra mph of velo on his fastball that he’s lost the past two years, but his ERA marks the past four seasons are 3.47, 3.43, 3.10, and 4.45 in 2025.

The consistent results are impressive even if his individual pitches don’t wow you. ZIPS projections estimates a 2.1 fWAR 2026 season for Martinez in which he throws 138 innings, splitting time evenly between starting and relief, with a 4.26 ERA. That projection is roughly as good as any starter available in free agency not named Framber Valdez.

Certainly for 2026, Martinez’s versatility looks extremely appealing as the Tigers may experiment with any of Drew Anderson, Troy Melton, and possibly Keider Montero, Sawyer Gipson-Long, Ty Madden and more in varying degrees in their rotation. Martinez would take that job himself, at least to start the season. If he struggled and a better option presented itself, he can move right back to the bullpen where he’s been outstanding the past few years. A team needs a lot of pitchers to cover starts throughout the season, but it’s a lot easier if you can option pitchers or flex some of them to the bullpen as needed. No doubt Martinez expects to start, but unlike signing most of the other starters available, it’s easier to just give him some time in the pen if he gets off to a rough start in the rotation.

The Reds paid Martinez $26 million over his two years there. He’ll cost more now, particularly as the Tigers may have to lure him away from other interested parties as the starting pitching market thins out over the next few weeks. Still it would be a pretty wise expenditure. It helps that unlike say, Zac Gallen, there’s no qualifying offer attached. It also helps that Martinez has been extremely durable for years. With the Tigers rotation looking like a shell of itself beyond 2026, a two-year deal to Martinez helps fortify the pitching staff now and for 2026 at a pretty reasonable price.

It’s not terribly exciting, but Martinez is generally more valuable than his modest reputation might suggest. With Chris Fetter game planning, and a catcher upgrade in Dillon Dingler, a command artist like this could absolutely thrive in Detroit. Another frontline starter isn’t in the cards, and the front office may see Nick Martinez as the perfect fit for their needs. Landing him will take some committment.

Sixers look primed to build win streak vs. Pelicans

PHILADELPHIA, PA - JANUARY 27: Tyrese Maxey #0 and Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers smiles during the game against the Milwaukee Bucks on January 27, 2026 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

Coming off a strong win against the Bucks and 77 combined points from Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to beat the Kings, Saturday’s game should be a good opportunity for the Sixers to keep some momentum going.

The Sixers will welcome the 13-37 Pelicans — sitting at 14th place in the West — to Philadelphia, and have a healthy squad on their side too.

Quentin Grimes, who’s been dealing with a right ankle sprain, is probable to return, and everyone else is available.

We’ll need to wait until closer to game time for the Pelicans’ injury report. New Orleans will have the rest disadvantage in this one, as they’re on the second night of a back-to-back after picking up a 114-106 win against the Grizzlies on Friday.

The headline matchup for the Sixers’ defense, of course, is Zion Williamson. After missing so much time throughout his career due to injuries, Zion has actually been in a run of good health and fine form lately. He’s played every game since Dec. 14, averaging 22.0 points with a 64.6 true shooting percentage while looking more like his high-flying self.

Apart from Paul George and Dominick Barlow needing to bring all the physicality and effort they can on the ball to try and cut off Zion’s drives, the Sixers will need sharp help rotations to keep Zion’s downhill scoring in check. Embiid and Adem Bona will need to be alert around the rim.

Trey Murphy III is having yet another strong season as well, tallying career-highs of 21.9 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.7 assists per game and a true shooting percentage of 61.7. He’s become more balanced as a scorer, becoming highly efficient as a finisher with simple yet strong drives and his transition play. The Sixers’ guards will need to follow him closely around screens to keep his high-volume threes contested and be ready to handle Murphy’s drive game when closing out.

It could be fun watching how Jeremiah Fears matches up against the Sixers’ guards as well. The Pelicans’ rookie point guard has been showing his potential from day one, although he’s had a role change over the last four games since moving to the bench. It can give him more time to lead the offense when not next to Zion and Queen, though, which is something Fears continues to improve at, and his defensive talent is still on show. It’s safe to say he’ll have a challenge on his hands against Maxey and VJ Edgecombe…

All that said, even with a few exciting young talents in their offense, the Pelicans still sit at just 25th in offensive rating.

It’ll be interesting to see how New Orleans’ super talented, crafty playmaking center Derik Queen fares on Saturday too. The rookie is averaging 12.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and an impressive 4.3 assists in 25.8 minutes per game. He’ll likely bring some entertainment value this weekend — the way he drives, spins, and reads the floor as a playmaker at center is rare. However, he lacks much size at 6-foot-9 and vertical pop. And what with his lack of experience as well, he’s going to have a rough time not being physically overwhelmed by Embiid.

Which, in fairness, is the same for everyone facing the big fella right now. Jo’s moving fluidly again and truly back in dominant form.

There’s plenty to discuss right now as we wait for the NBA trade deadline to arrive, with Giannis-to-Philly talk continuing and Embiid calling out the team for repeatedly ducking the tax possibly ringing in the front office’s ears. And in the meantime, this should be a fun contest with the Sixers’ stars playing well and an explosive matchup to keep Zion in check. Before upcoming contests against teams like the Lakers, Suns and Knicks over the next two weeks, the Sixers need to take advantage on Saturday and grab what should be an easier win while they can.

With the extra firepower their offense has behind this version of Embiid and Maxey, Paul George perhaps in a better rhythm following his 32-point outing against Milwaukee, this team shouldn’t have many issues against the Pelicans’ 27th-ranked defense that’s playing on tired legs. If the Sixers can effectively protect the paint against Zion, they should have more than they need to extend the win streak to three.

Game Details

When: Saturday, January 31, 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
Watch: NBC Sports Philadelphia
Radio: 97.5 The Fanatic
Follow: @LibertyBallers

Panthers begin first homestand of 2026 against visiting Jets

Something amazing is happening over the next several days in Sunrise.

When the Florida Panthers host the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday afternoon, it will be the start of something that hasn’t been seen in South Florida for quite some time.

For the first time in a month, the Panthers will be hosting an actual, real life homestand.

Even better, they won’t have to play any back-to-back sets! It’s truly like Christmas in July for the Panthers.

All joking aside, it will be nice for the Cats to have some stability in their lives for a couple weeks.

The only road game the Panthers will play between now and March is on Feb. 5 against Tampa, which also happens to be the last game Florida will play for the NHL breaks for the Winter Olympics.

Now the important next step for Florida will be to resume winning games on home ice.

Saturday’s game on Winnipeg, which comes on Jan. 31, will be the fifth home game of the month for the Panthers, including the Winter Classic that was planed at loanDepot park in Miami.

Florida has won just once on home ice this month, all the way back on Jan. 4 against Colorado.

Getting back on the right track and picking up some crucial points in the standings will go a long way toward Florida climbing back into striking distance of a playoff race.

Entering play Saturday, Florida’s 59 points is eight points back of Boston and Montreal, who are tied for the two Wild Card spots in the Eastern Conference, and Buffalo, who hold the third spot in the Atlantic Division.

Florida has two games in hand on the Bruins, one on Montreal and the same amount of games played as Buffalo.

Here are the Panthers projected lines and pairings for Saturday’s matchup against Winnipeg:

Carter Verhaeghe – Evan Rodrigues – Sam Reinhart

Sandis Vilmanis– Sam Bennett – Matthew Tkachuk

Eetu Luostarinen – Anton Lundell – Mackie Samoskevich

A.J. Greer – Cole Schwindt – Luke Kunin

Gus Forsling – Aaron Ekblad

Niko Mikkola – Uvis Balinskis

Tobias Bjornfot – Jeff Petry

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Photo caption: Jan 22, 2026; Winnipeg, Manitoba, CAN; Florida Panthers center Sam Bennett (9) shoots wide of Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) in overtime at Canada Life Centre. (James Carey Lauder-Imagn Images)

From the DSL to St. Louis: How the Odds Shift for the Cardinals’ 2025 International Class

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Kansas City Royals

Becoming a major league baseball player is extremely difficult. I know, breaking news… It definitely helps if a major league team signs you to a professional contract and sends you to one of their minor league affiliates, but even so, the odds are against you. With the recent excitement in Cardinals nation around the signing of top 10 international prospect, outfielder, Emanuel Luna, I wanted to dig into some data and see how often players, position players specifically, were able to make the trek all the way from the lowest rung of professional baseball, the Dominican Summer League (DSL), to a major league field. Going back to 2006, 7,655 players have gotten a plate appearance in the DSL. 226, or roughly 3%, of these young men have eventually made a major league debut. This 3% of players end up making a huge impact on major league rosters accounting for roughly 16% of total position player WAR produced over the last five seasons. Fortunately for the Cardinals, their last two international signing classes are off to terrific starts. Everyone has been following Rainiel Rodriguez and Yairo Padilla from the 2024 class, but the 2025 class has at least seven interesting names on the position player side of things too. Today I want to focus on these seven players and evaluate if they really only have a 3% chance each of making it to St. Louis. 

Before we get to our prospect discussion, I want to provide a bit of historical context for the Cardinals DSL hitter production. All of the aforementioned players will be following in the illustrious footsteps of Cardinals legend Ildemaro Vargas as the next superstar to make the long journey from the DSL to St. Louis. Just kidding, but only barely.. The Cardinals have had a tough time getting any position player talent out of their DSL programs over the last several decades. Since 2006, Vargas ranks behind only Edmundo Sosa and Ivan Herrera as noteworthy alumni from the lowest level of the Cardinals system. Oscar Taveras would have likely changed the narrative drastically had his story not ended so sadly. Herrera along with fellow catchers Leonardo Bernal and Rainiel Rodriguez will try to break the trend, but there is no denying that the Cardinals have struggled in this department. If you total up the career WAR of all the DSL (and now defunct Venezuelan Summer League) players since 2006, the Cardinals rank 26th in baseball with a grand total of 8 WAR produced (inclusive of all career WAR, not just with the signing team). The top teams in this department have found multiple star-level players. Houston leads the way with 106 WAR with notable contributions from Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and Teoscar Hernandez. Boston is next led by Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers.

Alright, back to the Cardinals 2025 DSL standouts. A quick summary before we dive into some more macro data. 

Sebastian Dos Santos signed for only $75K and as an unheralded member of the 2025 international class, but had the most impressive debut of the group. His 158 wRC+ was ninth in the DSL and third among players 17 or younger. He walked more than he struck out and led all first-year DSL players with a .258 isolated slugging percentage (fifth overall). Dos Santos is noted as having a great approach at the plate and feel for hitting. While he does not have monster exit velocity numbers yet, his 21 extra-base hits in 38 games are extremely encouraging. While his season strikeout percentage was solid at 17.5%, Dos Santos finished on an incredible run striking out only one time in his final 51 plate appearances. 

Yeferson Portolatin signed for $450K and had an excellent DSL debut. His 145 wRC+ was driven in large part by a 29.3% walk rate. He played mostly second base with a few appearances at short and third. 

Yaxson Lucena is the only player on this list repeating the DSL. He put up an 89 wRC+ across 130 plate appearances in his age 16 season in 2024, and then crushed the league in 2025 with a 1.5 BB/K ratio and 140 wRC+. Lucena is another player with a great plate approach and excellent contact skills, but it remains to be seen how much power he can get to. He has played exclusively corner outfield and DH thus far in his career. 

Kenly Hunter received the third-largest bonus in the 2025 class at $700K. He had an excellent debut as well putting up a 131 wRC+ while stealing 25 bases as the center fielder for the DSL squad. While he showed minimal power, Hunter is starting to pop up on some Cardinals prospect lists because of his pedigree and solid first professional season. 

Miguel Hernandez is one of the younger players in the 2025 class and had an excellent debut with a 124 wRC+. Despite being seen as a hit-over-power prospect, he popped 5 home runs in 36 games while serving as the team’s primary shortstop. 

Juan Rujano is a bat first catcher that signed for $750K out of Panama. While his K rate was slightly elevated at 23%, he still managed a 121 wRC+ with solid walk and power numbers. 

Royelny Strop was the most heralded member of the 2025 class signing for $1.4M. The son of former Cubs reliever Pedro, struggled with injuries and performance for most of the year. Strop turned it on over his last six games collecting seven extra-base hits (out of nine on the season) and hitting for the cycle in his final game. The late barrage brought his season wRC+ up to 89. 

Now, back to the question: do all of these seemingly promising prospects really only have a 3% chance each of making it to St. Louis? How much do their (mostly) promising starts at such young ages change their odds moving forward. The first thing working to the whole group’s advantage is age. All seven of these prospects were in their age 17 season in 2025. Below are the updated odds based on age for all players that accrued at least 100 plate appearances in a given season.

Note that this is showing individual seasons, so a player that played both his age 17 and 18 season in the DSL would be counted twice. I also cut the data off after the 2019 season. The 2020 season was canceled due to COVID and the more recent seasons have not started to see a meaningful number of players make major league debuts. These numbers aren’t surprising as we would expect players good enough to get to 100 plate appearances at a younger age are more likely to succeed relative to their older counterparts. For me the big takeaway is that it is a big red flag if a prospect is held back after his age 17 season and not advanced to the next level.

With the obvious age filter out of the way, we can move to performance. It is tricky evaluating DSL statistics  for a couple of reasons. First, the seasons are short. Most of the seasons in our dataset are in the 100-200 plate appearance range, which creates triple slash lines heavily influenced by batted-ball luck. Second, there has been significant change in the DSL environment over the years. The league-wide walk rate was 14.7% in 2025 after hovering closer to 10% prior to 2018. To mitigate the sample-size issue, I will look at BB%, K%, and isolated slugging. While not perfect, these metrics stabilize in far fewer plate appearances than batting average or on-base percentage. To try to account for the change in playing environment, I converted the rate stats to plus stats relative to the league average that year. For example, Kenley Hunter had a strikeout percentage of 11.6% compared to the league average of 20.4% which works out to a K%+ of 176. 

Here is a look at how the three plus statistics relate to chance of a debut:

Strikeout rate and isolated slugging have a very obvious relationship to debut rate. Striking out at an above-average (in a bad way) rate doesn’t preclude a player from making a debut but it more than cuts his chances in half relative to the overall average. The walk rate relationship is all over the place. Players that walk at half the league average or less actually debut slightly more often than the entire pool. This validates a common theme you will hear in scouting reports that talented players tend to swing more because they can hit anything at the lower levels. Our own Yohel Pozo shows up on the list of low walk players after pulling off a 5% walk rate back in 2014 in the Rangers system. Despite Pozo’s presence, I am comfortable throwing out walk rate as overly predictive at this stage. 

Here are how the aforementioned redbird farmhands stack up on these metrics:

The obvious question looking at these two tables is how does a player that excels in multiple categories see their likelihood of a debut change. Because all of the Cardinals prospects here played their age 17 season, I will look exclusively at that cohort while throwing out the BB+ metric as a factor (sorry Yeferson). The grid below maps K%+ against ISO+. Using Kenly Hunter as the example again, he would slot into the fourth row down (150-200 K%+) and the second column from the left (50-100 ISO+). This maps him to a group of players that have historically made it for at least one big-league at-bat 9% of the time.

This table of all the 17-year-old prospects to receive 100 plate appearances in a season between 2006 and 2019 includes 1,901 player seasons. The extreme performances have relatively low numbers of players, but looking at the ranges gives a good sense of how these players have historically performed. The only player in the 200-250 bucket for both K%+ and ISO+ is Andres Gimenez. 

Where the Cardinals Prospects Fit In

Sebastian Dos Santos fits in a cohort that has made a big-league debut 57% of the time as 14 players have had K%+ between 100 and 150 with ISO+ rates between 200 and 250. This group is led by Rafael Devers and Julio Rodriguez and also includes former top prospect Noelvi Marte. 

Yaxson Lucena falls in the 33% bucket with a couple of former top prospects in Oscar Taveras and Victor Robles, but no huge major league success. It is fair to knock Lucena back a notch because he is the only player repeating the DSL. 

Yeferson Portalatin falls in the 9% bucket with both metrics between 100 and 150. 14 of his 151 comparables have debuted with Xander Bogaerts, Gregory Polanco, and Ivan Herrera leading the pack. I know we cannot get excited about walks in the DSL, but it will be fun to see how Portalatin’s patient approach translates and evolves as he moves up the ladder. 

Miguel Hernandez just missed the 100-and-up strikeout rate club. Only 6 of the 112 players in his bucket made it big but there are some fun ones with Oneil Cruz and Marcell Ozuna.

Our metric gives Kenly Hunter a 9% chance of making the show with Jean Segura as the most prominent player to come out of the high contact, low-power group. 

Both Royelny Strop and Juan Rujano fall in the 50-100 K%+ and 100 to 150 ISO+ group that has historically made it 5% of the time. Willson Contreras is by far the best of this 225 player pool, but he is joined by Cardinals legends Yairo Munoz and Elehuris Montero. 

All of these players should be stateside this spring preparing to start in the Florida Complex League. Best case scenario, a couple of them break out and make it to low-A before the season’s end. While none of this group is threatening the Cardinals’ top 10 or even 20 prospect list yet, the path from the DSL to prospect prominence has been well worn over the last year. In 2024, current top 100 prospects Jesus Made, Luis Pena, Rainiel Rodriguez, Edward Florentino, and Emil Morales were all excelling in the DSL.