Category: Sports News

Emmet Sheehan’s first outing of September will be with the Dodgers this weekend against the Washington Nationals. But that comes after a stellar August in Triple-A, and for his efforts on Thursday was named Pacific Coast League pitcher of the month.

Another Dodgers minor leaguer, Class-A Ontario infielder Joendry Vargas, was named California League player of the month for August.

Sheehan was optioned to Triple-A Oklahoma City on August 3, and pitched the rest of the month for the Comets. He was called up as a just-in-case arm for the Dodgers on August 18-19 in Coors Field, but did not pitch. After a brief relief appearance for Oklahoma City, Sheehan reeled off three excellent starts in a row, totaling 24 strikeouts and six walks with just one run allowed in 17 1/3 innings.

Sheehan also won PCL pitcher of the week for August 17-23.

After a slow first few months, Vargas started to come round offensively in the last week of June, then had a solid July. August was a breakout month for the 20-year-old, hitting a whopping .396/.417/.646 with a 159 wRC+, 11 doubles, three home runs, two triples 20 RBI, and 18 runs scored in 23 games. Vargas led the California League during August in hits (38), total bases (62), doubles, and slugging percentage.

Vargas has played mostly shortstop but has also seen time at second base and third base. That’s been the norm for an Ontario roster this year that included Emil Morales and Mairo Martinus before getting promoted, plus recent draft picks Aiden West, Caleb Johnson, and Kellon Lindsey, though the former first-rounder Lindsey has played mostly second base this season.

Vargas won Cal League player of the week from August 3-9.

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The Braves and Phillies are tough to split with their aces taking the bump tonight... or are they?

See why our MLB expert picks like Atlanta to come out on top on Friday, Sept. 4, and much more.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Probability
Jon Metler: ATL ML	50%
Neil Parker: CHC -1.5	44%
Joe Osborne: MIL -1.5	49%
Dustin Saracini: KC/TOR o9.5	54%

Probabilities courtesy of Polymarket. For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Braves moneyline

Price: 50¢ at Polymarket

This is about as good as it gets: two NL East rivals battling for the division, with Chris Sale and Cristopher Ssnchez taking the mound.

I'm not going to overthink this one. I'm backing Sale and the Braves, especially after Sale's dominant complete-game shutout against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's in elite form right now, and this matchup sets up well for him.

The Phillies' offense relies heavily on production from three left-handed bats: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez. That makes it difficult for me to back Philadelphia at this price against a left-hander like Sale. Schwarber and Harper both look to drop the barrel and elevate pitches in the lower half of the strike zone, but Sale can counter that swing path with his sweeping slider.

The Braves are trading at 50% on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 53% favorite in this spot.

• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: BravesVision, NBCSP

Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs -1.5

Price: 44¢ at Polymarket

The Cubs rank second in xwOBA and first is ISO across the past 30 days, so with Marlins starter Janson Junk sporting a ho-hum 4.28 xERA and 4.72 xFIP over his past seven starts, I’m anticipating the Chicago lineup pulling away on the scoreboard tonight.

Miami respectively checks in with a 27th-ranked xwOBA and 25th-ranked ISO during the same stretch, and the Marlins are 20th in wOBA against lefties for the season, after all.

Finally, while there have been a lot of peaks and valleys for Chicago southpaw Shota Imanaga, his 3.89 xERA and 3.82 xFIP across his past 11 starts also reinforce the edge on the mound for the Cubbies.

• Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: MARQ, Marlins.TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Brewers -1.5

Price: 49¢ at Polymarket

When the Brewers win, they tend to win big, with 11 of their last 12 victories coming by at least two runs.

Milwaukee is well positioned to tee off against Rhett Lowder, as its hitters own a combined .946 OPS against him. In two meetings this season, they smacked him around for nine total runs off 19 hits, and they rank fourth in OPS against righties over the past two weeks.

On the other side, Shane Drohan has had opposite results this season vs. Reds hitters, limiting them to two total runs across two starts.

With the Reds struggling against lefties and Milwaukee holding a sizeable bullpen advantage, the Brewers should be able to pull away

• Time: 6:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Brewers.TV, Reds.TV

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Royals/Blue Jays Over 9.5

Price: 54¢ at Polymarket

Where has this Toronto Blue Jays offense been all year? They exploded for 17 runs across their last two games against the Cleveland Guardians and have a plus matchup against Daniel Lynch, who will be on another short leash tonight.

If the Jays can get to Lynch early, they should be able to eat the second-worst bullpen in the bigs alive (5.09 ERA).

On the other side, Jameson Taillon is making his first start back from injury after rocking a 11.88 ERA in July and 3.38 ERA in August. With a Jays bullpen that used four of its high-leverage arms yesterday afternoon, the Royals will do their part to get us across the line.

• Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Royals.TV, SN

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Your 2026 New York Mets:I plan to keep going until my worst year is over.

“It was the first time that I was struggling like that, but I never give up. I was always trying to find a way to feel better, to pitch better. I knew what I could do, and I was feeling good physically too and healthy, but I couldn’t make an adjustment. The good thing is that now I’m different, I feel different and I plan to keep going until my worst year is over.” -Freddy Peralta [New York Daily News]

Your 2026 New York Mets:Not all positive.

“What do I think about my season? I think it’s been up and down. I’ve struggled to find real consistency, I would say. Which, I don’t know, that’s just part of what comes with the job. It’s hard for me to find consistency. I’ll pitch and then fall out of rhythm, [have a] bad outing, get back into my rhythm. It’s just kind of been all over the place. I’ve had really good streaks. I’ve had, I’m not going to say really bad streaks, but I’ve had bad games — like three or four [fucking] terrible games. But yeah, I’d say mostly it’s positive. Not all positive.”” -Devin Williams [MLB]

Your 2026 New York Mets:Not going to get too hung up thinking that I’m the world’s worst pitcher.

“I’m not going to get too hung up thinking that I’m the world’s worst pitcher last week and the world’s best one this week. It’s what I need to do to continue to be good.” -Robert Stock [New York Post]

Your 2026 New York Mets: Probably got too much plate.

“[Pintaro] probably got too much of the plate.” -Andy Green [MLB]

With the above out of the way, we’ve still got one more month of Mets baseball; so let’s enjoy some happier storylines you might’ve missed while understandably watching the US Open and getting ready for the upcoming football/Knicks season.

Journeymen/Rookies get to live their dream of playing in the big leagues:

Congratulations to Nick Morabito on collecting his first (and second) career hit. I remember being at a 2024 Brooklyn Cyclones game and [arrogantly] saying to my wife his ceiling is probably ‘a cup of coffee’ in the majors, and I’m happy to root for him to try to surpass that.

“It’s really cool. I’m glad that I was able to do all that today, and it was fun. It was a lot of fun.” -Nick Morabito [MLB]

Nolan McLean starts continue to be must-watch games:

Also, any quotes/articles with McLean are must read as McLean gives great insight into how certain modern starters think and use information about their craft. [It was tempting to put in every quote from Jared Greenspan’s article, so do yourself a favor and give it a read.]

“It’s a little tricky whenever your pitch doesn’t move like you’re used to. That’s the part I’ve struggled most with this year: the sweeper shape.” -Nolan McLean [Mets]

“I’m not getting the shape that I wanted this year. Even with the same type of metrics, I’m just not able to produce the same shape. There’s been times where I’ve shown it, but I haven’t been able to clip that pitch quite as much. It’s the constant evolution of, ‘I don’t want to dig myself in a hole and keep throwing it when I don’t really feel like I have it.’” -Nolan McLean [Mets]

“It’s kind of something I’m known for, but it’s also been the pitch I’ve given up the most damage on as well, which makes it a risk-reward thing.” -Nolan McLean [Mets]

“Everything’s screaming that it should be the same pitches. I’m just not getting the same shape.” -Nolan McLean [Mets]

“I think that’s the importance of trying to constantly develop your arsenal. If you don’t have a sweeper one game, you might have to rely heavily on a curveball or a changeup. And if I’m not working on those in the offseason, how am I supposed to have confidence in them?” -Nolan McLean [Mets] 

“Ideally, you want all six pitches and to go out there and dominate, but you never really have that. A lot of times, you’re working with three pitches, and you have to go out there and figure out what those are pretty early and ride them until you can.” -Nolan McLean [Mets]

We get to continue our Weekly Bo Bichette Update:

This week with some veteran-level quotes from rookies in support of Bo.

“I think just one day I kind of let it all go and started playing better. I don’t necessarily think I found me for a long time after that. But I was still able to come here and compete and put up numbers, which I was not able to do at the beginning.” -Bo Bichette [SNY]

“You spend a good part of the season wondering why we’re not playing as well, wondering why I’m not playing as well, having a lot of different things in your head. On top of that, you’re feeling you want to show your new teammates how good you are and live up to the contract and all that. In the simplest way I can put it, I think in a lot of ways I just kind of let go.” -Bo Bichette [SNY]

“Bo is one of the guys who took me under his wing a little bit and made me feel unbelievably comfortable. He’s been a great resource for me, even now [as he is slumping]; he’s been helping me, talking me through things, trying to keep my head on straight.” -AJ Ewing [SNY]

“Obviously, we all want him to stay. At the end of the day, it’s his choice, his career. Whatever he chooses, I’ll wish him the best. But we obviously want him to stay.” -Carson Benge [SNY]

We get insight into how much Juan Soto loves baseball and his teammates…

“It’s really frustrating to be down and not being able to help your team … to not perform out there, have fun with the boys. That keeps me motivated to be out there again.” -Juan Soto [The Athletic]

“That’s not overstating it at all. It’s sick. It’s like a warrior mentality. A lot of guys have that. It’s basically [Juan Soto] saying, ‘I want to be great.’ I’ve seen him do his rehab every day. If he is feeling good and wants to come back, that’s sick. Everyone here definitely appreciates the work he puts in and him wanting to come back this year.” -Sean Manaea [The Athletic]

“It’s really frustrating at the time [taking the ball off his shin] — everything went through my mind. Definitely, I tried to stay positive, think the best way possible to get out of it. Little by little, I was getting better. I just said, fuck it, I am going to try to push through it, not take too long. I gotta be out there.” -Juan Soto [The Athletic]

“Loves the game,” was how Green described Soto. “Enjoys his teammates. Wants to be a part of winning baseball for the rest of the year.” -Andy Green [The Athletic]

…and insight that there are still more important things in life than baseball.

I think Andy Green is a good guy who cares about his family.

“[When considering if he’d rather continue as manager or go back to the front office] The family consideration is real. We’re all trying to do the best we can balancing career and family. My twins have one year left in high school. I want to be present as much as possible like any dad would.” -Andy Green [The Athletic]

/OpenAI prompt/ Make the statement “I think Andy Green is a good guy who cares about his family” more professional and appropriate for C-Suite presentation.

“I think it’s laudable and consistent with who [Andy Green has] been during his time here. He’s genuine and real about what fulfillment means for him.” -David Stearns [The Athletic]

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The Seattle Mariners continue their playoff push against the Athletics at T-Mobile Park on Friday, Sept. 4.

First pitch is set for 10:10 p.m. ET, and my top Athletics vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks call for a low-scoring game. 

Who will win Athletics vs Mariners today: Mariners moneyline (68%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Kade Morris has struggled to a 10.60 FIP and 2.85 WHIP against left-handed batters in 2026. Tonight, the Seattle Mariners are likely to have seven lefties in their lineup against Morris.

Behind Morris, the Athletics’ bullpen isn’t in great shape after using Hogan Harris, Luis Medina, and Scott Blewett twice each in the last three days. Chris Roycroft threw 39 pitches yesterday, too, which means he’s unlikely to be available here.

The A's offense has been underwhelming against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days, ranking 16th in wRC+.

Seattle has the better offense, the better starting pitcher, and a more rested arm barn, so they should be able to take care of business at home here. Play to 70%.

COVERS INTEL: The Athletics' bullpen ranks dead-last in ERA in 2026.

Athletics vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (56%)

Logan Gilbert owns a 4.54 FIP at T-Mobile Park in 2026, but much of his struggles have been due to an inability to keep the ball in the yard.

Cooler temperatures in Seattle this evening should help mitigate that issue. The Athletics offense is a good matchup for Gilbert, too, ranking only 14th in ISO and 19th in home runs against right-handed pitching since the beginning of August.

If the bullpens for the Athletics and Mariners can avoid a late-inning meltdown, runs are likely to be at a premium. Play to 60%.

Athletics vs Mariners home run prediction: Cal Raleigh (21%)

Cal Raleigh leads all of baseball with a 32.1% barrel rate against right-handed pitching during the last 30 days (min. 20 plate appearances). Raleigh didn’t catch a barrel yesterday, but both of his balls in play were 95+ mph off the bat.

Morris has allowed a 37.2% fly-ball rate against left-handed hitters this season. There is a good chance we see Raleigh leave the yard this evening.

Play to 24%.

Athletics vs Mariners weather

T-Mobile Park has a retractable roof, but the design of the stadium preserves an open-air environment. That means the outside weather still has an impact on the playing field for home games. Cooler temperatures forecasted for Friday in Seattle slightly favor pitching.

Athletics vs Mariners odds

• Moneyline: Athletics 34% | Mariners 67%
• Run line: Athletics +1.5 | Mariners -1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Athletics vs Mariners trend

The Athletics have only hit the F5 moneyline in 15 of their last 50 games (-9.70 Units / -19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Athletics vs. Mariners.

How to watch Athletics vs Mariners and game info

Athletics vs Mariners latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Today marks the 76th birthday of former Blue Jays pitcher Doyle Alexander.

Doyle pitched for the Jays over four seasons—two full seasons and two partial ones. During his time in Toronto, he posted a 46-26 record with a 3.56 ERA across 106 games, making 103 starts.

The Jays signed him as a free agent on June 21, 1983, roughly a month after the Yankees released him. At the time of his release, Alexander had a 0-2 record and a 6.35 ERA in eight games, following a previous season where he went 1-7 with a 6.08 ERA in 16 starts.

Alexander turned things around in Toronto, posting a 7-8 record with a 3.93 ERA in 17 games. That season, the Jays finished fourth, nine games behind. When Doyle joined, the team was just 1.5 games out of first and remained competitive until a rough August set them back.

In 1984, Alexander enjoyed the best season of his career, going 17-6 with a 3.13 ERA in 36 games and tossing 11 complete games. He even received some MVP votes that year. Although he struck out just 139 batters in 261.2 innings, he consistently got the outs when it mattered.

The Jays reached the playoffs for the first time in 1985, with Alexander playing a key role. He finished 17-10 with a 3.45 ERA over 36 starts. While he only struck out 142 batters in 260 innings, the team’s solid defense supported him. The playoff run was short-lived, however, as the Jays lost to the Royals in the ALCS. Alexander struggled in the postseason, recording an 8.71 ERA over two starts.

Midway through the 1986 season, the Jays traded Alexander to the Braves for Duane Ward—a deal that worked out well for Toronto. A year later, the Braves sent Doyle to the Tigers in exchange for John Smoltz, which was an even better haul for the Braves than the Jays got. Alexander later helped the Tigers edge out the Jays for the AL East crown in 1987, starting two games during the Jays’ season-ending seven-game losing streak. In the first of those games, he pitched 10.2 innings without getting a decision. That memory still stings.

Alexander finished his career with a 194-174 record and a 3.74 ERA. He wasn’t a hard thrower, relying instead on a variety of pitches and arm angles. I always thought he’d make a good pitching coach. Over his career, he played for eight different teams.

He didn’t come across as particularly warm or cheerful, at least from a distance—though perhaps he was different with teammates. Surprisingly, he received no votes when he appeared on the Hall of Fame ballot. Usually, there’s at least one writer willing to cast a courtesy vote, but it seems Doyle didn’t have that advocate.

Happy Birthday, Doyle.

Today also marks the 53rd birthday of Brian Simmons and the 49th for Matt DeWitt. I mention them together because both were part of the notorious Mike Sirotka trade.

In January 2001, DeWitt and David Wells were traded to the White Sox in exchange for Simmons, Kevin Beirne, and Sirotka. Realistically, only Wells and Sirotka were considered significant pieces in the deal.

As most fans remember, Sirotka never pitched for the Blue Jays—he arrived injured, which is why physicals are standard today. Bud Selig, then-commissioner and friend of White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, ensured Toronto got no compensation. Ironically, Wells performed poorly for the White Sox.

DeWitt appeared in 24 games for the Jays between 2000 and 2001, and pitched five more times for the White Sox in 2002, marking the end of his MLB career. After 2002, he was traded back to Toronto for Mike Williams (also involved in the Sirotka trade), but neither returned to the majors.

Simmons, a utility outfielder, played 55 games for the White Sox in 1999 but didn’t make a major league appearance until joining the Jays. In 2001, he played 60 games for Toronto, hitting .176/.239/.280. The White Sox claimed him off waivers after the season, and although he bounced between teams, he never returned to the majors.

Wishing both Matt and Brian a happy birthday.

Erik Swanson turns 33 today.

Swanson, along with Adam Macko, joined the Jays in the trade that sent Teoscar Hernandez to the Mariners.

He played a major role in the bullpen during 2023, posting 29 holds in 69 appearances and finishing with a 2.97 ERA.

In 2024, he had a 5.03 ERA in 45 games, with batters hitting .235/.304/.516.

2025 started even worse. He had 15.19 ERA after 5.1 innings and was released in June.

Happy Birthday, Erik.

Andrés Giménez also celebrates his 28th birthday today.

Now in his second season with the Jays, Giménez has appeared in 232 games, batting .228/.287/.336 with 15 home runs.

He has provided stellar defense at second base last year and at shortstop this season.

Happy Birthday, Andrés. Celebrate it with a win tonight.

Longevity in sports can be a double-edged sword. On one side, the longer something lasts, the more opportunities there are for positive memories, greatness, or the achievement of goals. The other side of the longevity sword allows for more failures and burnt bridges. For Doyle Alexander, his 19 seasons across the majors resulted in both.

Doyle Lafayette Alexander
Born: September 4, 1950 (Cordova, AL)
Yankees Tenure: 1976, 1982-1983

Born in a rural town north of Birmingham, Alabama, Alexander grew up and attended Woodlawn High School in the city. Woodlawn also produced legendary Florida State football coach Bobby Bowden. Alexander was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the ninth round of the 1968 MLB June Amateur Draft out of Woodlawn.

The 6-foot-3 right-handed pitcher made quick work of climbing up the ranks in the Dodgers’ farm system. After pitching in the Northwest League after being drafted, Alexander reached Double-A the next season in 1969. Alexander remained in Double-A to start the 1970 season, but after an impressive 4-3 start to the season, the Dodgers promoted the 18-year-old to Triple-A Spokane.

Spokane would be Alexander’s home to start the 1971 season. After 15 starts and going 6-3 with a 3.44 ERA, the Dodgers called Alexander up to make his MLB debut. At just 20 years and 295 days old, Alexander made his Major League debut on June 26, 1971, going eight innings against the Padres. Doyle would go on to make 12 starts and appear in five more games, ending his rookie year with a 6-6 record and a 3.80 ERA across 92.1 innings.

During the offseason following the 1971 season, Alexander was used as the centerpiece of a trade, alongside three other prospects, to land future Hall of Famer Frank Robinson and Pete Richert from the Orioles. This would kick off Alexander’s longest tenure with any team, as he would spend 4.5 seasons in Baltimore. As an Oriole, Alexander appeared in 137 games, 64 of which were starts. His final career line with the club was 35-37 with a 3.41 ERA.

On June 15, 1976, Baltimore traded Alexander, along with Jimmy Freeman, Elrod Hendricks, Ken Holtzman, and Grant Jackson to the New York Yankees for Rick Dempsey, Rudy May, Tippy Martinez, Scott McGregor, and Dave Pagan. This would be Alexander’s first of two stints in the Bronx and the most successful one. Despite this trade working well for the Yankees at the time, Dempsey, Martinez, and McGregor would eventually help the Orioles win the 1983 World Series.

Alexander did exactly what the Yankees had hoped for when they traded for him. He went 10–5 with a 3.29 ERA down the stretch, helping the Yankees win the AL East and reach the 1976 World Series. Alexander was the starter for Game 1 of the 1976 World Series, a move many questioned Billy Martin for at the time, and took the loss. The Reds would go on to sweep the Yankees.

Following the season, Alexander became a part of the first-ever free agent class. After the Yankees would not promise him at least 20 starts per season, Alexander opted to sign with the Texas Rangers. Over the next few years, Alexander became a highly traveled journeyman.

The Rangers moved him to the Atlanta Braves in December 1979. Then, almost a year to the date later, he was traded to the San Francisco Giants. His whirlwind tour finally came back to the Bronx just before the start of the 1982 season when the Giants traded him to the Yankees in exchange for Andy McGaffigan and Ted Wilborn. Alexander held out of the Giants Spring Training, trying to secure a contract extension. That holdout might have contributed to Alexander’s second stint in pinstripes not going well.

Following the trade, Alexander signed a lucrative, for the time, four-year, $2.2 million contract extension. However, Alexander struggled mightily on the mound. Over a season and a half in 1982 and 1983, he limped to a dreadful 1–9 record with a 6.16 ERA.

The legend of patience himself, George Steinbrenner, quickly grew peeved at Alexader for his performance. Following a particularly rough outing, Steinbrenner said he was flying Alexander back to New York to undergo a physical, as something had to be wrong with the pitcher. Thoroughly disgusted, the Yankees ate the remainder of his salary and released him on May 31, 1983.

This move ultimately backfired when a rejuvenated Alexander signed with the division-rival Toronto Blue Jays on June 21st. Alexander would beat the Yankees at the end of the season, pitching a complete game in a 5-1 Blue Jays win to clinch the 1985 AL East crown on Steinbrenner’s own dime, no less.

Following this run with Toronto, Alexander was traded back to the Braves in July 1986 for future star reliever Duane Ward. After briefly testing free agency following the 1986 season, he ultimately re-signed with Atlanta.

In 1987, Atlanta traded Alexander to the Tigers in exchange for a minor-league prospect named John Smoltz. This trade, the last one of his career, became a legendary piece of baseball lore: Alexander pitched brilliantly down the stretch, going 9–0 with a 1.53 ERA to push the Tigers to the 1987 American League East title, while Smoltz went on to have a first-ballot Hall of Fame career with the Braves.

Alexander remained with the Tigers for the rest of his career, testing free agency again in late 1988 before re-signing for one final season in Detroit. In 1988, at 37 years old, he earned his very first and only All-Star selection. Alexander endured a grueling final year as he battled a fractured jaw. The season resulted in a frustrating 6–18 record that led the American League in losses. Following the 1989 season, at 39 years old, Alexander officially called it a career.

Over his 19-year Major League career, Alexander compiled a final statline that included a 194–174 record, a 3.76 ERA, 561 games played including making 464 starts, 3,367.2 innings pitched, 1,528 strikeouts, and a 35.0 WAR. Following retirement, Alexander returned home to Alabama and remained mostly out of the public eye. In 2022, he was inducted into the Alabama Sports Hall of Fame.

Happy birthday, Doyle!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

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The Milwaukee Brewers (60%) get on base better than anybody against right-handed pitching, and they should have plenty of opportunities to do so facing Rhett Lowder.

I expect Milwaukee to put up a big number tonight, and my Brewers vs. Reds prediction and MLB picks reflect that.

Who will win Brewers vs Reds today: Milwaukee Brewers (61%)

For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Rhett Lowder is very hittable, which becomes especially evident when he goes up against a quality offense.

He has posted a 7.22 ERA over 12 starts against teams ranking Top-10 in OBP vs. right-handed pitching. Unfortunately for Lowder, the Milwaukee Brewers lead the league in that category.

They are likely to string together hits in bulk, and Lowder’s 15th percentile barrel rate will also elevate their ability to generate power.

Shane Drohan has managed a 2.93 ERA against Bottom-10 opponents in OBP, and the Cincinnati Reds sit 29th.

Play to 64%.

COVERS INTEL:Lowder ranks in the 11th percentile in xERA, making him unlikely to hold up against an elite Brewers offense.

Brewers vs Reds Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (52%)

The Brewers are in a great spot to score early and often, making the Over an attractive buy.

Lowder’s ERA sits at 8.13 when isolating seven matchups against teams in the Top-10 in OBP and xwOBA vs. righties.

That includes two starts against the Brewers, in which Lowder combined to allow nine runs in just over 10 innings of work.

Drohan owns a 4.70 xERA the past month and the Reds do possess real power. Aided by playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, only five teams have gone deep more times at home this season.

Play to 53%.

Brewers vs Reds home run prediction: Jake Bauers (23%)

Milwaukee’s leader in barrel rate against Lowder’s pitch mix this season is…Jake Bauers!

The veteran lefty profiles amazingly well, generating barrels at nearly a 15% clip while posting a healthy .231 ISO to boot.

Bauers also owns a magnificent track record when facing Lowder, going 5-for-8 with a pair of homers.

Isolating matchups against starters ranking in the 30th percentile or worse in xSLG and FB% against left-handed bats, Bauers has homered in seven of 12 games.

Brewers vs Reds weather

Temperatures are expected to comfortably sit in the 90s with winds blowing out. Very favorable hitting conditions at Great American Ballpark.

Brewers vs Reds odds

• Moneyline: Brewers 60% | Reds 41%
• Run line: Brewers -1.5 (48%) | Reds +1.5 (53%)
• Over/Under: Over 9.5 (51%) | Under 9.5 (50%)

Brewers vs Reds trend

Milwaukee has hit the moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.0 units, 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Reds.

How to watch Brewers vs Reds and game info

Brewers vs Reds latest injuries

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.