American Hockey League and Professional Hockey Players’ Association ratify CBA

The American Hockey League’s Board of Governors and Professional Hockey Players’ Association's full membership have ratified a collective bargaining agreement that ensures labor peace in the top layers of the sport in North America for the foreseeable future.

The AHL and PHPA announced the final step in the process Wednesday. The CBA, like that of the NHL and ECHL, is good through the summer of 2030.

“We have long had a positive relationship with our players and we look forward to continuing to work with the PHPA so that the league and our players can grow and prosper for years to come,” AHL president and CEO Scott Howson said.

The AHL agreement came together with little consternation, unlike the ECHL negotiations that led to a two-day strike out of the league’s holiday break in December. The ECHL and PHPA then worked out a CBA of their own, after 28 games had been postponed.

The AHL, the top developmental league that feeds into the NHL, is in the middle of its 90th season.

“This agreement delivers important gains for our members while providing long-term certainty across the league,” PHPA executive director Brian Ramsay said. “This was a collaborative and disciplined bargaining process that resulted in a strong agreement for our membership.”

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AP NHL: https://apnews.com/hub/nhl

Kansas City’s farm system keeps biting the team in the butt

While some level of frustration about 2025 remains, the Kansas City Royals are poised to secure back-to-back-to-back winning seasons immediately after tying the franchise record for most losses in a year. That comeback is impressive, especially considering how the Royals accomplished it.

Yes, the Royals signed some free agents to do so, but they’ve largely limited their spending and their long-term financial outlook is very good. Yes, they’ve made some efficient trades, improving at the margins and making use of some team depth to attempt to shore up areas of weaknesses. And yes, they’ve watched a couple young players blossom–chief among them the wunderkind Bobby Witt Jr.

The Royals are still searching for a difference maker or two, though. Unfortunately, their payroll (which has increased by a respectable $14 million per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) is probably maxed out. And more unfortunately, it doesn’t seem that the Royals are going to swing the big trade that they’re looking for, at least per Ken Rosenthal:

The Kansas City Royals are increasingly unlikely to land either of the two hitters they pursued in trades: the St. Louis Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan and Boston Red Sox’s Jarren Duran.Barring further moves, the Royals expect to rely heavily on offseason acquisitions Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas in their outfield, as well as rookie Jac Caglianone and holdover Kyle Isbel.

You can quibble on whether Donovan or Durran are worth the assets that would have taken to acquire them. But both are only 29, under control for multiple seasons, and would be huge improvements over what the Royals have right now. They would make the team better right now and in the future. 

Even so, there were other deals that could have been out there that the Royals should have been able to work out. There has been just one problem: the Royals don’t have a good enough farm system to leverage.

The last time the Royals wanted to take the next step, they had that farm system. That was in 2012, after a frustrating season that ended in a 72-90 record. Nevertheless, the Royals moved aggressively to better the club, leveraging top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi in a trade to acquire pitchers James Shields and Wade Davis. They improved by 14 games in 2013, narrowly missing the playoffs starting a three-year run as the best team in the American League.

This time around, they just don’t have anybody who can anchor a trade. Since 2020, Royals first round draft picks have lost huge portions of their trade value (Asa Lacy, Frank Mozzicato, Gavin Cross, Blake Mitchell), haven’t played an inning yet of pro ball (Sean Gamble, Josh Hammond), or made it to to the big leagues and have flopped hard (Jac Caglianone). Meanwhile, key high-upside draft picks in the second or third round have also lost significant value after their draft (Blake Wolters, Ben Kudrna, Hiro Wyatt). 

The result? A farm system which firmly rests in the bottom third of the league, if not one of the worst of the league

Before anybody claims that I’m being unfair here, I don’t at all blame Gamble or Hammond–a pair of high schoolers drafted seven months ago–for anything. Caglianone, as we all know, could be a monster as soon as this season. And the Royals should receive plenty of credit for selecting Carter Jensen and Noah Cameron in the 2021 MLB draft and developing them into players who had excellent debut seasons this year. 

Caveats and successes aside, the reason why the Royals couldn’t make an impact trade this year is that they simply couldn’t without trading established big league talent. If the Royals had a better farm system, I think we would have seen a big trade. They don’t, and we didn’t. Farm system rankings are somewhat overrated in and of themselves—the point is to win MLB games, not win MiLB talent arguments—but when push comes to shove, having talent to trade is how teams can take leaps forward. 

Braylon Doughty is our No. 6 Guardians prospect. Who should be No. 7?

The people have spoken and the first pitcher is off the board as Braylon Doughty is our No. 6 Cleveland Guardians prospect. Doughty won by just three votes with 35.5% of the vote, beating out Cooper Ingle (33.1%) and Khal Stephen (13.8%). He is making his CTC prospect rankings debut.

Doughty was Cleveland’s first round competitive balance pick in the 2024 MLB Draft out of Chaparral High School in Temecula, California, signing with Cleveland for a $2,569,200 bonus.

He made his pro debut skipping straight to full-season Single-A Lynchburg to begin 2025 and it was an impressive showing. Doughty made 22 starts, topping out with a season-long 5.2 innings pitched Aug. 1 when he struck out seven and allowed one run without a walk.

Limiting walks was Doughty’s specialty in 2025. He had two walks or fewer in all but one of his starts. Overall on the season, he struck out 99 batters while walking just 23 in 85.1 innings pitched. On the season, he had a 3.48 ERA and an even better 2.84 FIP.

Unfortunately, Doughty didn’t get an opportunity to participate in Lynchburg’s run to a Single-A championship in the Carolina League because he was tabled with right shoulder inflammation on Aug. 23 right before the end of the season. From everything I’ve read, the move was precautionary and he didn’t need any additional surgery or anything.

Doughty has high spin on his breaking pitches, with a slider and curveball that both grade as plus and the potential to have a great changeup as well. Despite just turning 20 years old, he’s already drawing comparisons to another spectacular Cleveland pitcher — Shane Bieber. That’s some high praise. Let’s hope he can prove scouts right as he continues to develop in 2026 where he’ll almost certainly begin the season at High-A Lake County.

Now, it’s time to determine who is number five in the Guardians’ loaded farm system! Your options are below:


Juan Brito, 2B (Age 24)
2025 (CPX) 26 PA, .190/.346/.333, 1 HR, 0 SB, 11.5 BB%, 30.8 K%, 93 wRC+
2025 (AAA): 99 PA, .256/.357/.463, 3 HR, 4 SB, 13.1 BB%, 21.2 K%, 115 wRC+

Was lined up to make his MLB debut in 2025, but multiple injuries prevented the switch-hitter from getting his opportunity and it’s possible he could be passed up completely.

Juneiker Caceres, OF (Age 18)
2025 (CPX) 160 PA, .289/.419/.469, 3 HR, 5 SB, 16.9 BB%, 11.3 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (A): 130 PA, .250/.331/.345, 1 HR, 2 SB, 6.9 BB%, 13.1 K%, 103 wRC+

Impressed at the complex league, then hit the ground running in a late season promotion to Single-A before running out of steam late in his age-17 season. Loaded with potential.

Jaison Chourio, OF (Age 20)
2025 (CPX) 27 PA, .261/.370/.304, 0 HR, 1 SB, 14.8 BB%, 37.0 K%, 95 wRC+
2025 (A+): 353 PA, .235/.380/.284, 2 HR, 9 SB, 18.7 BB%, 21.8 K%, 103 wRC+

Chourio was lining up to be Cleveland’s top prospect after a sensational 2024, but he was slowed in 2025 by a nagging shoulder injury and had a very average season. He’s looking to bounce back in 2026.

Cooper Ingle, C (Age 23)
2025 (AA) 403 PA, .273/.391/.443, 9 HR, 0 SB, 16.1 BB%, 17.4 K%, 148 wRC+
2025 (AAA) 107 PA, .207/.383/.329, 1 HR, 0 SB, 19.6 BB%, 16.7K%, 105 wRC+

Ingle has shown excellent offensive tendencies for a catcher. Will his defense and power be enough to earn an opportunity in Cleveland this year?

Jace LaViolette, OF (Age 22)
2025 (NCAA) 262 PA, .258/.427/.576, 18 HR, 7 SB, 21.8 BB%, 25.2K%, 120 wRC+

Cleveland’s first round pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, the 6-foot-6 LaViolette instantly becomes one of the top power hitting prospects in the system. Strikeouts and contact have been an issue, however.

Alfonsin Rosario, OF (Age 21)
2025 (A+) 354 PA, .268/.362/.490, 16 HR, 12 SB, 10.8 BB%, 25.1 K%, 139 wRC+
2025 (AA): 145 PA, .211/.303/.391, 5 HR, 2 SB, 10.3 BB%, 33.1 K%, 105 wRC+

One of Cleveland’s most impressive hitters in its minor league system during his stint at High-A Lake County as a 20-year-old. Rosario has a unique combination of speed and power, but will need to overcome his strikeouts.

Khal Stephen, RHP (Age 23)
w/ TOR 2025 (A) 7 GS, 39.1 IP, 2.06 ERA, 1.97 FIP, 31.4 K%, 4.6 BB%, 0.92 WHIP
w/ TOR 2025 (A+): 9 GS, 48.1 IP, 1.49 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 26.6 K%, 5.4 BB%, 0.85 WHIP
w/ TOR 2025 (AA): 1 GS, 4.0 IP, 6.35 ERA, 1.88 FIP, 11.1 K%, 5.6 BB%, 1.68 WHIP
2025 (AA): 4 GS, 11.1 IP, 9.00 ERA, 9.54 FIP, 21.9 K%, 3.9 BB%, 1.50 WHIP

Please vote below

Elephant Rumblings: Athletics Reportedly Had Arenado Deal Lined Up Before D-Backs Trade

Morning everyone and welcome to Wednesday! Don’t you love a short week?

Yesterday morning we got a report indicating that future Hall of Fame third baseman Nolan Arenado rejected a trade to the Athletics just prior to getting flipped to Arizona instead. Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the A’s and Cardinals had come to terms on a trade involving him coming to Sacramento, but the 34-year-old decided to reject that in favor of returning to the NL West, where he spent the first eight years of his career with the Rockies.

That’s a bit of a slap in the face to the A’s, even if they are currently playing in a minor league stadium. Arenado has two years left on his deal though, and with no guarantee he would be there at third base when the A’s open in Las Vegas there was a strong chance he would only be playing in Sacramento had he accepted a deal to the Athletics. In that sense it’s his loss because the team is on the rise with young cornerstones Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson, both of whom would likely have benefitted from having him in the dugout with them.

On the other hand, it shouldn’t be a surprise anymore that players really don’t want to play in a minor league ballpark, even if it’s good for batters on an up-and-coming squad. The report by Rosenthal says that along with Arizona he would have approved a trade to San Diego, which has a better roster, stadium, and ownership unafraid to spend. The fact that he ended up choosing Arizona is a bit puzzling in a baseball sense because the D-Backs were a fourth-place team in a loaded NL West, and there’s not much to indicate a sudden turnaround is in order.

The Rosenthal report also says that the A’s would have actually taken on more salary in the trade than the Diamondbacks ultimately did. Arizona reportedly took on $11 million of the remaining $42 that Arenado is owed, which is a sizeable chunk for the Cardinals to eat. If the reporting is correct they had a deal with the A’s lined up where they would have gotten greater salary relief but a lesser prospect return. While both the Cardinals and A’s were ready for this to happen, Arenado just wasn’t ready to don the Green & Gold.

That wasn’t all that we learned from the report. We got word yesterday that the A’s are interested in a reunion with former Athletic Miguel Andujar, but it seems the Athletics may make a move one way or another whether it’s a reunion with Andujar or a different outside addition. Third base remains the clear and obvious spot for an upgrade on the position player side of things. The front office supposedly is happy to go with the in-house options Max Muncy, Darell Hernaiz and Brett Harris, but these reports on back-to-back days indicate that could just be a negotiating tactic.

Two other names mentioned in the report that could be of interest to the Athletics is Eugenio Suarez and Yoan Moncada. Either would be an upgrade over the in-house options at the hot corner for the A’s, but the question is by how much depending on their contract.

Suarez is the more established of the two third basemen as the 34-year-old has 325 career home runs to his name. The power is there, but his on-base percentage and defense leave a lot to be desired. The A’s could double down on their power with him as he’s sure to hit a long of homers this year, but that might not fit with what the A’s want out of that spot. He’s not short of suitors, with his most recent team the Seattle Mariners still reportedly monitoring his market.

Moncada is another name that’s been bandied about as a potential fit for the A’s. The longtime White Sock spent last season with the division-rival Angels, his first outside of Chicago in eight years. Injuries yet again ate into Moncada’s campaign as he made it into just 84 games for the Halo’s. Granted, that’s significantly more than his final season in Chicago but any team signing the switch-hitter has to know he can’t be counted on for a full season. Maybe that’s actually attractive to the A’s, who may want to legitimately give Muncy and/or Hernaiz a chance at some point this coming season. It doesn’t hurt that Moncada was actually an above-average hitter in terms of OPS+ during his Angels stint.

Well there you have it. The A’s got left high and dry by Nolan Arenado, who instead heads to the desert to join the D-Backs. Options are dwindling for an upgrade over Muncy and Hernaiz, but we know the front office is at least trying for an upgrade, and even coming close to one. To those that thought the A’s were done adding this offseason, it’s time to recheck your calculus.

Have a great one guys.

A’s Coverage:

MLB News and Interest:

Best of X:

While Cal Raleigh was getting all the attention, Shea was actually better in the second half:

Would probably be a big upgrade over Muncy. Would he want to come here though?

Tough couple months for Bido. Can’t be easy bouncing around that much:

How much would a Colby Thomas trade really bring back though?

Colorado Rockies prospects: No. 27, Riley Kelly

27. Riley Kelly (79 points, 10 ballots)

Kelly was Colorado’s fourth round pick, 107th overall, in the 2025 draft out of UC-Irvine. The 6’5” 21-year-old righty starter signed for a $700k bonus, just about $15k under the slot value. Like many other high Rockies draftees, Kelly was a high school quarterback with some good athleticism. He was thought of highly enough in high school to be in the top 250 of MLB Pipeline and get drafted in the 20th round in 2022 by Arizona (though he didn’t sign). His standout trait is a high-RPM (3,000+) curveball, combined with low to mid-90s velocity and a decent changeup.

Mid-season 2025 Rank: HM

High Ballot: 17

Mode Ballot: 17, 21, 22, 28

Future Value: 35+, starting pitcher depth

Contract Status: 2025 Fourth Round, UC-Irvine, Rule 5 Eligible After 2028, three options remaining

MLB ETA: 2029

The first couple years of college didn’t go well for Kelly, who threw only 20 1/3 innings with poor results while battling a back injury. In his draft year, Kelly started the season in the bullpen for UC-Irvine before moving back to the rotation in mid-March. In his second start, he outdueled eventual 2025 #2 overall pick Tyler Bremner en route to a season total of 66 2/3 innings with a 3.78 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 rate, and 4.3 BB/9 rate. Kelly didn’t pitch in an official game in the Rockies’ system after signing.

Here’s a look at Kelly after his sophomore campaign in 2024:

Kelly was ranked 139th overall by MLB Pipeline in the draft (20 spots ahead of Rockies third round pick and fellow PuRP Ethan Hedges) and is now ranked 19th in the system (two spots behind Hedges) as a 40 FV player with 55 grades on his fastball and curveball:

Kelly’s fastball sits around 92-93 mph and he can crank it up to 96 at times. But his best pitch has always been his curve, especially when he can land it for strikes. It’s a nasty 11-to-5 breaker thrown in the upper 70s that routinely registers over 3,000 rpm and flashes plus. He has a low-80s changeup that can be effective as well.

While Kelly’s strike-throwing has been inconsistent, scouts saw better quality strikes with the move to the rotation. He should get every opportunity to start, with the knowledge that the fastball-curve combination could tick up if he had to move back to the ‘pen.

Here’s what Keith Law of the Athletic wrote about Kelly after the 2025 draft:

UC Irvine right-hander Riley Kelly (4) moved from the Anteaters’ bullpen to the rotation this year and blossomed, making 12 starts along with five relief appearances and lowering his ERA by a run and a half. He’s up to 96 but he sits more 91-93, generating a ton of whiffs on his 82-85-mph straight change, although his 11/5 curveball looks like it should be his best pitch. He has 45 control right now, but if that gets to 50, he’s a starter.

If Kelly can command that hammer, generate a bit more velocity on the fastball, and stick in the rotation, he becomes an interesting starter prospect. Pending that evidence, I ranked Kelly as a 35+ FV player with some upside and put him 26th on my list. Kelly will start 2026 at High-A Spokane or Low-A Fresno, probably the latter.


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2025 Astros Farm System Position Series: Starting Pitchers

The final review of the 2025 season will be looking at each position in the Astros farm system. Next up is the outfield position.

BEST OF THE BUNCH

Alonzo Tredwell

Tredwell was the Astros 2nd round pick back in the 2023 draft and he had a breakout season this year. The right-hander pitched across three different levels and posted a 3.69 ERA with 122 strikeouts over 100 innings. This included a dominant 40 strikeouts over 22.2 innings in Double-A to end the season.

2025 Stats: 26 G, 3.69 ERA, 100.0 IP, 85 H, 41 ER, 45 BB, 122 K, 11.0 K/9

Bryce Mayer

Mayer, a 16th round pick in last year’s draft and looks to be another diamond for the Astros. The right-hander started in Single-A and struck out 30 over 17.2 innings earning a promotion to High-A. In Asheville he posted a 2.85 ERA with 45 K in 41 innings. He finished the season in Double-A striking out 37 over 29 innings. He was the Astros minor league pitcher of the year.

2025 Stats: 21 G, 4.11 ERA, 87.2 IP, 76 H, 40 ER, 27 BB, 112 K, 11.5 K/9

Miguel Ullola

Ullola started the season well and then hit a rough patch but turned it around late. In his first full season in Triple-A, Ullola posted a 3.88 ERA with 131 strikeouts over 113.2 innings. He also allowed just 75 hits, good for a .186 batting average against. When he cuts down on the walks, he is dominant.

2025 Stats: 28 G, 3.88 ERA, 113.2 IP, 75 H, 49 ER, 78 BB, 131 K, 10.4 K/9

Ethan Pecko

Pecko had some injuries early in the year but after getting healthy, the 2024 minor league pitcher of the year got back to his normal self. He had a 4.40 ERA in Double-A but that included a 1.75 ERA over his final six outings in Double-A. He got a promotion to Triple-A where he finished with a 3.09 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 35 innings. He should be in Houston in 2026.

2025 Stats: 20 G, 3.83 ERA, 80.0 IP, 73 H, 34 ER, 27 BB, 95 K, 10.7 K/9

Trey Dombroski

After a tough season in 2024 for Dombroski, he turned things around this year. The left-hander posted a 3.61 ERA with 116 strikeouts over 112.1 innings. He allowed just 91 hits in Double-A good for a 7.3 H/9, down from 11.1 H/9 last year. He made two starts in Triple-A too and should start there next season.

2025 Stats: 28 G, 3.95 ERA, 120.2 IP, 99 H, 53 ER, 55 BB, 122 K, 9.1 K/9

THE REST OF THE PACK

Joan Ogando

Ogando pitched the full season for the Woodpeckers and had some ups and downs. The 21-year-old had a 4.07 ERA overall, but had some really good months posting a 3.24 ERA in April and a 3.18 ERA in June. Overall he finished with 113 strikeouts in 94.2 innings, though he did walk 69.

2025 Stats: 25 G, 4.09 ERA, 94.2 IP, 55 H, 43 ER, 69 BB, 13 K, 10.7 K/9

Anthony Cruz

Cruz is an undersized right-hander who put together a solid season in 2025. He started the year in Fayetteville and had a 3.75 ERA with 84 strikeouts over 84 innings. He earned a promotion to High-A where he had a 5.12 ERA, though he also had 20 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. Overall he had a 4.01 ERA.

2025 Stats: 25 G, 4.01 ERA, 103.1 IP, 87 H, 46 ER, 53 BB, 104 K, 9.1 K/9

Jose Fleury

Fleury has been on the radar as a possible top prospect for a couple of seasons now. He started out the season on fire posting a 0.82 ERA with 25 K in 22 innings in April. He missed some time in May but came back in June and was eventually promoted to Triple-A where he had a 6.95 ERA over 45.1 innings.

2025 Stats: 23 G, 4.55 ERA, 85.0 IP, 74 H, 43 ER, 35 BB, 78 K, 8.3 K/9

Jackson Nezuh

Nezuh had a monster first year in the system in 2024 but struggled some in Double-A in 2025. He finished the season strong though posting a 1.67 ERA over his final six games. He would end up finishing the season with a 4.34 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 76.2 innings between Double-A and a couple outings in the FCL.

2025 Stats: 20 G, 4.34 ERA, 120.2 IP, 99 H, 53 ER, 55 BB, 122 K, 9.1 K/9

2026 OUTLOOK

Pitching is always tricky. As it stands, the Astros will be leaning on Hunter BrownSpencer ArrighettiMike BurrowsCristian Javier and newly acquired Tatsuya Imai. The Astros have some strong arms in Ullola, Pecko and Mayer. Then some other strong options like Tredwell, Forcucci (hasn’t pitched yet) and Dombroski. As we have seen in previous years, we know the Astros will need well more than five starters so plenty of chances for these prospects to shine in 2026.

Yankees Birthday of the Day: Andy Hawkins

The San Diego Padres have won precisely one World Series game in the history of their franchise. On October 10, 1984, they defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-3 in Game 2 of that season’s Fall Classic. Their starter, Ed Whitson, gave up more runs (three) than he recorded outs (two). So out of the bullpen came 24-year-old Andy Hawkins, who’d been abysmal for the Padres in ’84 (-1.6 bWAR). All he did was hurl 5.1 frames of shutout ball, earning himself the win.

Several years later, Hawkins found himself on the free agent market and identified the Yankees as a team he thought would be competitive during his tenure. Ultimately, he signed on the dotted line to come to the Bronx. He was, sadly, completely wrong on the Yankees’ timeline to be competitive, so he never came close to the AL pennants he hoped for. Nonetheless, he holds a place in Yankee lore, tossing one of the more infamous no-hitters in baseball history.

Name: Melton Andrew Hawkins
Born: January 21, 1960 (Waco, TX)
Yankees Tenure: 1989-91

Hawkins grew up in Texas, playing baseball. Larger than many of his peers, his father (and eventually his coach) realized he needed to be pushed. The talent was never in question, though. When the 1978 MLB Amateur Draft rolled around, Hawkins did not have to wait long for his name to get called. Picking fifth overall, the San Diego Padres nabbed the 18-year-old.

By 1982, Hawkins found himself in the majors, where he embarked on an inconsistent trajectory. In limited action his rookie season, he struggled. But the next season, far from a sophomore slump, Hawkins put together one of his finest seasons, pitching to a 2.93 ERA (121 ERA+) in 119.2 innings. 1984, however, was the exact opposite as he pitched poorly enough to get demoted to the bullpen before earning his World Series redemption (he ended up pitching in three games that October, allowing one run in 12 innings).

After an excellent 1985, he struggled again the next two seasons. But with his free agency approaching, Hawkins picked an excellent time to have a bounce-back season in 1988. That December, the Yankees showed up to the Winter Meetings, looking to perhaps offload Dave Winfield. When that looked like a losing proposition, General Manager Bob Quinn quickly pivoted.

At the top of their list? The 28-year-old Hawkins, fresh off a 14-win season in San Diego. It did not take long for a deal to come together. A day after the initial reporting on Hawkins emerged in the New York Times, he and the Yanks came to an agreement. Hawkins signed a 3-year, $3.6 million deal, the largest and longest deal he was offered in free agency.

Manager Dallas Green immediately designated Hawkins the “anchor” of the Yanks’ rotation. That raised some eyebrows. Murray Chass, in the Times, remarked that the label “raised instant questions about the talent that will make up the rotation.”

Hawkins was up-and-down in his first half-season as a Yankee. He won 11 of his first 19 starts, going at least seven innings in 10 of them… but… his ERA spent all of May and June bouncing between 5.00+ and 6.00+. It looked like he’d steadied the ship with back-to-back shutouts to move him to 11-8. Then the wheels fell off. He went 4-7 the remainder of the season as the Yanks sunk to a fifth-place finish in the AL East.

1990 was no better. By mid-May, Hawkins was 1-3 with an ERA north of 7.00. Then he took the mound on May 16th. And he was perfect. Except… the weather did not cooperate. Hawkins faced 13 hitters. He retired 13 hitters. Eventually though, the game was called and later made up as part of a double-header. It’s easy to find in his game logs. Just look for the game where Hawkins is credited for pitching 11.2 innings versus Minnesota. It was not the last time in 1990 that Hawkins crossed paths with baseball immortality.

The game he’s most known for happened that season on July 1st. Facing the Chicago White Sox, Hawkins opened with 4.2 perfect frames before walking a pair, ensuring there would be no perfect game. He still allowed nary a hit though. Fast forward to the eighth inning. An error put a man on for Chicago then Hawkins again walked a pair of Pale Hose batters to load the bases.

Robin Ventura then lofted a fly ball to left that, in the swirling winds, clanked off Jim Leyritz’s glove. Three runs scored on the error, the second of the inning. A fourth run followed on yet another error, before Hawkins could escape. Still with the no-hitter intact, he and the Yanks now trailed 4-0 and ultimately lost by that margin.

That was the high point as a Yankee for Hawkins, which is strangely fitting in a way. Neither he nor the club found the success each hoped for when he signed his deal. He struggled for the rest of the 1990 season and he was so bad in ’91 that the Yankees released him in early May. He signed with the Athletics nine days later and spent the next four months pitching for them before they released him, ending his major league career as a player.

Several years after his retirement, Hawkins got back into baseball, this time as a coach. He spent 2001-15 (except for one season in Kansas City) with the Rangers staff. After disappearing from baseball for a couple years, Hawkins now coaches with the Salt Lake Bees of the Pacific Coast League. Happy birthday, Andy.

References

Andy Hawkins. Baseball-Reference.

Chass, Murray.“ Baseball; Yankees Woo Hawkins After Trade Talks Fail.” New York Times. December 8, 1988.

Chass, Murray. “Yanks Sign Hawkins To $3.6 Million Pact.” New York Times. December 9, 1988.

Curry, Jack. “Hawkins is Perfect; Weather is Not.” New York Times. May 17, 1990.

Thornley, Stew. “Andy Hawkins.” SABR.

Thornley, Stew. “July 1, 1990: Andy Hawkins no-hitter is ‘no winner’ for Yankees.” SABR.


See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Andruw Jones: “Chipper told me “The Hall wouldn’t be complete without you”

“They wanted to put a right-hander in the lineup and I took advantage of that.” That’s how Andruw Jones described getting the opportunity from then-manager Bobby Cox and then-General Manager John Schuerholz to join that 1996 Atlanta Braves team that went on to win the pennant. Jones famously hit two homers in his first two at-bats during Game 1 of the World Series and became the youngest player in history to hit a homer during the Postseason — and the World Series, at that — at just age-19.

However, if you let Andruw tell it, he’d say that the World Series title would’ve been nice but there was another title that he had his eyes on in 1996. “I was kind of mad that I got moved up to Double-A because I really wanted to win a championship in A-Ball,” said Jones when he was asked about his experience in that season. “You didn’t think about [the World Series]. All of a sudden, you’re in the World Series. All I wanted to do was just learn, get better and win. I always wanted to win and just get the opportunity to play the game that you love […] My dad told me a long time ago, ‘Take advantage of the opportunity’ and that’s what. wanted to do for my whole career.”

Jones took full advantage of the opportunity he got back in ‘96 and that was the start of what is now a Baseball Hall of Fame career for the Curaçao native. The importance of being the first Hall of Famer from the island wasn’t lost upon Jones, who expressed gratitude for his home helping to shape him into the player that he’d eventually become. “Since we grew up, we [in Curaçao] wanted to play baseball,” stated Andruw. “I will say ‘Thank you’ to Hensley Meulens for giving us the opportunity to be the first guy who opened the door for us. Curaçao had so many guys that signed professionally that never made it. I used to work out with them and they taught me so much about what to look forward to in the minor leagues so I can be successful. I took advantage of all those opportunities that those guys gave me, so to be the first guy to make it from Curaçao is a great honor and I know we’re going to have more people coming.”

While Andruw Jones was quick to remember the role that Curaçao played in his path towards Cooperstown, he also made sure to remind everybody that he is still very much in love with the Braves organization. “Big shout-out to Braves Country,” stated Jones when asked about his connection to the city. “I know everybody supported me throughout my whole career. Even when I left, the fans supported me. They knew I was always going to be a Brave and it was just a great time. I went to different teams but I always was a Brave. I was always loyal to the Braves.”

“I still live in Atlanta, my kids grew up in Atlanta. I feel like I live in Atlanta more than Curaçao. I’m basically an Atlantan,” stated Andruw. Jones went on to talk about how he was excited about already being in the Braves Hall of Fame before saying that he was proud to help get another member of the Atlanta Braves into the Hall of Fame. So, if you had any question about what logo is going to be on Andruw’s hat on his plaque, I think it’s safe to assume that there’s going to be “A” logo on that plaque in Cooperstown.

While Andruw Jones is certainly happy to finally receive his day in the sun later on this Summer and also rubbed shoulders with a ton of Hall of Famers (both teammates and mentors alike) on his way to Cooperstown, Jones did admit that he never really saw it as a focus of his career. “I didn’t play this game to be a Hall of Famer,” stated Andruw when asked about how it felt to finally be inducted. “I played this game to help my team win. Obviously we didn’t win a championship but we won our division every single year for fourteen-straight [years].”

He was definitely proud of being part of that divisional dynasty but Jones did eventually admit that it was pretty cool to say that he could be considered in the same class as other baseball legends in the Hall of Fame. “To be honest with you, it’s just a great honor to just be within that class,” admitted Andruw. “As a baseball player, we all know how hard it is to get into the Baseball Hall of Fame. To get that chance is just one of those things you would never forget. To be in a class with all of those greats all of those legends…it’s just a great honor.”

So while Andruw Jones was effusive in his praise and admiration of his fellow Hall of Famers, it was one thing from Chipper that helped keep him motivated while he was patiently waiting for his Hall of Fame chances to improve. “The one thing that Chipper said a long time ago is that ‘I don’t think the Hall of Fame would be complete without [Andruw] being in it. I think his wish came true. I’m so honored and so proud to be part of that big group,” which included Bobby Cox, Fred McGriff, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and then Chipper Jones as well.

While there’s always an aura of “What if” surrounding those ‘90s Braves teams, it’s clear based on their presence in Cooperstown that that group certainly made a significant impact on the landscape of baseball during their era. Andruw Jones always looked like he fit right in with the rest of those elite names and now he’ll have the plaque and spot in Cooperstown to prove it.

Mets Analysis: The future of Vientos, Baty, and Mauricio

It’s been an offseason of shocking, sobering change for the New York Mets. But as the comforting sight of pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training lurks just around the corner, there’s at least one thing fans will find familiar about the revamped team: the Mets’ roster is, once again, overflowing with infielders. 

Despite parting with longtime franchise stalwarts Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, the Mets somehow exit the winter with a more infield-heavy group than the one they sported last season. Trade acquisition Marcus Semien is slated to start at second base, while signings Jorge Polanco and Bo Bichette will play new positions in first and third base, respectively. 

The new multi-year acquisitions — especially the signing of Bichette— will leave the Mets’ homegrown infield trio of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio scrounging for playing time once again. It’s becoming a familiar pattern for all three players, who have seen their names smattered across a variety of top prospect lists, mock trades, and minor and major league lineups over the past three years. It seemed 2026 might be a year when all three got the chance to start regularly at the major league level, but now that possibility feels as distant as the 2024 team’s “OMG”-infused energy. And as if it wasn’t clear enough from the Mets’ offseason thus far, their trading of Luisangel Acuña Jr. — a 23-year-old top prospect with six years of service time remaining — re-affirmed the motto of the offseason: no one from the 2025 Mets is a safe bet to remain in Queens.

So with just over two months until Opening Day, it’s time to once again evaluate where each of these promising young players stand as members of the Mets’ projected 2026 roster, as chips on the trade market, and as future big leaguers…

Mark Vientos(Entering age-26 season / Free Agent after 2029)

Among the Mets’ homegrown infield quartet, Mark Vientos has far and away displayed the highest upside at the major league level. In 2024, at just 24 years old, the right-handed hitter posted a .837 OPS in the regular season and a scalding .998 OPS with five homers in the postseason, positioning himself as one of the most exciting young bats in the game. But Vientos was unable to build on his stellar sophomore season, seeing his OPS drop to .702 in 2025.

If Vientos isn’t slugging, he isn’t adding much value via other facets of his game. Vientos recorded a 19th-percentile sprint speed and -7 Outs Above Average while primarily playing third base last season. The result was that he recorded -0.2 bWAR, a dismal mark bound to repeat itself if he bears a below-league-average OPS again. While there’s every chance his bat bounces back — he’s only 26 years old, after all — it’s understandable that the Mets might be hesitant to pin their hopes on a player whose floor is below replacement level. That doesn’t mean, though, that another team won’t be eager to take the risk. 

With the veteran Polanco slated for first base and the star Bichette slated for third base in the Mets’ Opening Day lineup, Vientos would once again have to earn his playing time the hard way, as he did back in early 2024. It’s a tough position to be in, something which Vientos has acknowledged before by calling it “extremely difficult” to improve in a part-time role. Rather than having him languish on their bench, the Mets might be more inclined to trade Vientos to an organization willing to let him play every day. This would afford Vientos the best shot to re-capture his lightning in a bottle success, award another team a hungry and talented young player with four years of team control remaining, and allow the Mets to negotiate the potential acquisition of a starting pitcher. But even if Vientos remains, he can still use that hunger to try and earn himself everyday playing time somehow. He’s done it before. Perhaps he can do it again.

Brett Baty (Entering age-26 season / Free Agent after 2029)

A first-round draft pick and top prospect, Brett Baty did not have the sizzling start to his career that some anticipated, but he’s improved markedly with each season spent in the majors. In 2023, he recorded -0.7 bWAR with a 66 OPS+ in 108 games. Over 50 games in 2024, his OPS+ rose to 81. In 2025, Baty finally earned everyday playing time, putting up a 111 OPS+ fueled by hot streaks in May and August. Baty saw his time split between third base and second base, recording 2 OAA at third and -1 OAA at second.

It’s hard to envision Baty being a more reliable bat in the lineup than Bichette, who has posted an OPS+ of 120 or higher in six of his seven big-league seasons. But if Baty’s pattern of offensive improvement continues and he rakes off the bench, there are still a few potential paths to increased playing time. One path is if Bichette’s third base defense is worse than or comparable to his middle infield defense, which could compel the Mets to move him to DH and give Baty starts at third. A second path is if Semien repeats his early-season struggles from 2025. The second baseman had an OPS of just .507 through his first 50 games last season, and while Semien still provides high-end defensive value, the Mets may not have as much patience for those offensive struggles given their plethora of infield options. In that case, Baty would be a candidate to get starts (or at least pinch-hit opportunities) in Semien’s place. 

A third path is if Baty sees time in left field, something which Jon Heyman recently reported that the Mets are envisioning, and which David Stearns alluded to as a possibility way back in December 2024. Baty has played exactly one major league inning at left field, but he played 29 games there in the minor leagues. Will Sammon also reported on Sunday that “the Mets want Brett Baty to perform the utility role that they formerly envisioned for Jeff McNeil,” including potentially seeing time at first base. Like Vientos, Baty’s four years of team control and proven upside make him an attractive trade candidate; but the fact that Baty isn’t a fielding liability and that the organization see him as a versatile defensive option means he has a higher chance of providing meaningful value to the 2026 Mets.

Ronny Mauricio (Entering age-25 season / Free Agent after 2029)

Ronny Mauricio currently holds an 84 OPS+ over 292 big league plate appearances, but most Mets fans will tell you that number doesn’t reflect his offensive potential. One reason is because, in contrast with the two players we’ve discussed thus far, Mauricio has never really gotten an earnest shot to be an everyday player at the major league level. After a cup of coffee in September 2023, Mauricio missed all of 2024 and the start of 2025 with a right knee injury. While Mauricio then spent the majority of the 2025 season in the majors, he received sporadic playing time, only starting in 43 games over four months. It’s understandably difficult for a 24-year-old to adjust to major league pitching while only getting a handful of at-bats per week, and so the Mets are yet to see exactly what Mauricio would be capable of if given consistent playing time.

Another reason to believe in Mauricio’s potential is that when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. His first major league hit was a double off Logan Gilbert which registered a 117.3-mph exit velocity, making Mauricio one of only 10 players to hit a ball that hard during the 2023 season. In 2025, Mauricio recorded an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, which ranked sixth among Mets with 100 plate appearances. Mauricio has also delivered some fairly clutch moments. Of the six homers he hit in 2025, five put the Mets ahead or tied the game, and four of those five came in the sixth inning or later.

But despite his promise, Mauricio has nonetheless struggled to make contact and lay off pitches outside the zone, with a 33.9 Whiff% and 39.9 Chase% last season. It’s difficult to imagine those numbers would keep up if Mauricio was given more consistent playing time, but it’s also difficult to imagine Mauricio getting the opportunity to improve meaningfully on the 2026 Mets’ roster. Second base and third base belong to Semien and Bichette, and if one needs a day off or misses time due to injury, Baty — not Mauricio — would surely be the next man up. Mauricio’s ceiling may very well be the highest of all four of the Mets’ infield trade candidates, but Mauricio’s floor is also the biggest unknown of the bunch. As Amazin’ Avenue’s Lukas Vlahos wrote in Mauricio’s season review, “It is of course easy to dream on the lightning quick bat and gargantuan home runs he pops off every once in a while, but we’ve been talking for a half-decade about the same problems here with little improvement.” A team with belief in Mauricio’s bat and a middle-infield spot open might be a better home for the young slugger than Queens in the coming seasons.

Mariners News: Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltrán, and Luis Robert, Jr.

Good morning everyone! We’ve got much to report on as we get this Wednesday underway, so let’s get to it.

In Mariners news…

Around the league…

Anders’ pick…

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Preview & Game Thread: NBA finalists meet again

The Milwaukee Bucks try to start another of those pesky winning streaks tonight in Fiserv against the Oklahoma City Thunder. As we’ve all been patiently waiting for, it’s NBA Rivals Week, so who better for the Bucks to lock horns with than the Pacers, Celtics, Heat, Suns Thunder! Of course, this extremely bitter rivalry was born out of these teams competing on the highest stage last season in the NBA Finals*. The Bucks reigned supreme, steamrolling the Thunder and cementing their place in league history as one of the few teams to win the trophy!

*NBA Cup

Where We’re At

Well, Milwaukee did win on MLK Day against Atlanta, but it was anything but convincing—as most of their wins are these days. The Bucks squandered a 23-point lead in the second half, needing big threes from AJ Green and Bobby Portis to get them over the line against a struggling Hawks team. Moreover, Atlanta did them a solid by going 1/22 from three (yes, one for twenty-two)—the worst three-point shooting half in NBA history! Prior to that game, Milwaukee got rinsed by Minnesota (down Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert) and San Antonio. So yeah, the Bucks still have a lot of work to do to.

On the other hand, the Thunder—despite having long-term injuries to key players—just keep on keeping on, winning seven of eight. They did go through a rocky patch before that, dropping games to the Hornets and Suns, but have course-corrected since. Over the last eight games, they own the NBA’s fifth-best net rating, but rank atop the league for the season at large. Put simply, this team remains a wagon, and tonight will be a tough one for Milwaukee to win. That said, OKC are beatable on the right night, which Miami showed on Saturday in a 122-120 upset. Godspeed, Bucks.

Injury Report

For the Bucks, Kevin Porter Jr. (oblique) and Myles Turner (ankle) are both questionable. Taurean Prince (neck) is out.

For the Thunder, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic, and Jalen Williams (the wing) are all out. Jaylin Williams (the big) is questionable.

Player To Watch

I’m going with Pete Nance, who, after dominating the G League with the Herd, got his first shot at real minutes with the Bucks against the Hawks, and did not disappoint. Nance made a major impact with five points, four rebounds, two assists, two steals, and one block in 15 minutes; the big man was +13 for the game. I’m looking at what his role develops into going forward. Does he become a regular in the rotation, or was that game more of a flash in the pan?

How To Watch

8:30 p.m. CST on ESPN and FanDuel Sports Network Wisconsin.



New details emerge from Lamar Odom’s DUI arrest in Las Vegas: ‘Overwhelming odor’

Los Angeles Lakers Vs. New Jersey Nets @ The Prudential Center: Lakers Lamar Odom drives into Nets Devin Harris during today's game.
Lamar Odom was recently arrested for a DUI.

Former NBA forward Lamar Odom had bloodshot eyes and eyelid tremors when police pulled him over for speeding at 106 mph in Las Vegas on Saturday, according to a police report obtained by TMZ.

Police said Odom’s black SUV had an “overwhelming odor of marijuana emanating from the vehicle,” and that the two-time NBA champ confessed to smoking marijuana earlier in the day.

Odom, 46, was arrested for DUI after failing a series of field sobriety tests, and received two traffic violations for driving more than 41+ miles per hour over the limit and improper lane change/failure to maintain lane.

Lamar Odom was recently arrested for a DUI. Anthony J. Causi/New York Post

Police said that Odom claimed at first that he “does not smoke marijuana,” and that his passenger was smoking a “little bit” of weed.

The report added that Odom was “driving like he was in ‘Back To The Future,'” the 1980s sci-fi movie.

Odom, who won back-to-back titles with Kobe Bryant and the Lakers in 2009 and 2010 during his 14-season career, also forgot to put the car in park when police asked him to get out of the vehicle, and it started to move before he hit the brake.

Police said in the report that Odom failed his field sobriety tests for a number of reasons, stating he swayed, lost balance, started too soon, failed to touch the tip of his nose on six attempts and stopped mid-way through, among other things.

The report also states that police asked Odom if he ever had a traumatic brain injury.

Odom laughed and said that he “had 12 strokes and six heart attacks and that he was poisoned at a brothel in Pahrump,” per the report.

Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant, right, talks with forward Lamar Odom after Odom fouled out against the Chicago Bulls during the second half of their game in Los Angeles on November 18, 2008. AP

Odom, who is open about his history of drug and alcohol abuse, was referring to the October 2015 incident when he was found unconscious inside the Nevada brothel Love Ranch following an overdose.

The incident resulted in Odom falling into a coma for three days, and he previously said he suffered 12 strokes, six heart attacks and damage to his kidney and liver.

He nearly died three months after his divorce from Khloé Kardashian was finalized.

Odom was arrested for a DUI in Los Angeles in 2013 and retired a year later.

In 2021, he admitted to taking ketamine to aid his sobriety.

Penguins vs Flames Prediction, Picks & Same-Game Parlay for Tonight’s NHL Game

Goals will be at a premium at the Scotiabank Saddledome with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Calgary Flames hitting the ice on Wednesday, January 21.

My top Penguins vs. Flames predictions and NHL picks are calling for a low-scoring bout with Calgary eking out the victory tonight.

Penguins vs Flames prediction

Penguins vs Flames best bet: Under 5.5 (+110)

Both the Calgary Flames and Pittsburgh Penguins have been tidy defensively out of the holiday break, respectively ranking first and third in penalty-kill percentage. 

Calgary has allowed the seventh-fewest goals per game (2.67), and Pittsburgh has been even better with just 2.17 against per game to rank second in the league. 

The Flames have also allowed the second-fewest goals per home game this season (2.35), and No. 1 Dustin Wolf has shown off with a .924 save percentage and 2.16 GAA across his 19 starts in Cowtown. He posted equally impressive .921 and 2.33 home marks last season, too.

Penguins vs Flames same-game parlay

The Flames' strong defensive numbers have paved the way to go 13-7-3 on home ice, and they’ve also driven possession with a 51.8 Corsi For percentage and posted the fourth-highest team save percentage at 5-on-5.

Pittsburgh is missing No. 1 defenseman Erik Karlsson (lower body), too.

Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Calgary forward Yegor Sharangovich has been putting more pucks on net recently and has recorded two or more shots in seven of his past 10 games for 23 total on 46 attempts.

Penguins vs Flames SGP

  • Flames moneyline
  • Under 5.5
  • Yegor Sharangovich Over 1.5 shots on goal

Penguins vs Flames odds

  • Moneyline: Penguins -110 | Flames -110
  • Puck Line: Penguins -1.5 (+220) | Flames +1.5 (-270)
  • Over/Under: Over 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-130)

Penguins vs Flames trend

The Calgary Flames have covered the puck line in 16 of their last 20 games at home (+18.35 Units / 57% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Flames.

How to watch Penguins vs Flames

LocationScotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
DateWednesday, January 21, 2026
Puck drop9:30 p.m. ET
TVSportsNet Pittsburgh, Sportsnet West

Penguins vs Flames latest injuries

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

Pistons vs Pelicans Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

The red-hot Detroit Pistons will be looking to extend their win streak to four games tonight as they visit the last-place New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center. 

Cade Cunningham’s assist total is extremely high, but my Pistons vs. Pelicans predictions are eyeing him to pick apart a poor New Orleans defense. 

Read more in my NBA picks for Wednesday, January 21.

Pistons vs Pelicans prediction

Pistons vs Pelicans best bet: Cade Cunningham Over 10.5 assists (+102)

While the Detroit Pistons are a well-oiled machine, Cade Cunningham is undoubtedly the focal point of this team, leading the way with 25.7 points, 9.8 assists, and 5.9 rebounds per game. The former first overall pick is an incredible playmaker, and he ranks second in the Association in dimes.

No matter the opponent, Cunningham finds a way to facilitate the rock at a high level. The guard has cashed the Over in assists in four of his last six outings, and he just had 14 dimes on Monday against the Boston Celtics. 

Cunningham is up against a poor New Orleans Pelicans perimeter defense that is allowing over nine assists per night to point guards, and they’re considered an easy matchup for the position. Also, NOLA is giving up 28.9 dimes per contest overall, which is second-worst in the NBA. 

He’ll cook tonight as a passer.

Pistons vs Pelicans same-game parlay

Jalen Duren is a physical specimen down low, and he’s proving to be an irreplaceable piece to the Pistons on both ends of the floor. On the boards, Duren is a monster, and he’s averaging 10.7 rebounds per contest. 

While Duren has only cashed the Over once in his last four appearances, he’s up against a Pelicans team that is giving up over 15 boards per night to centers. Duren will take advantage and have a big game on the glass. 

Trey Murphy is one of the lone bright spots for the Pels. He’s averaging a career-best 22.2 points, and the University of Virginia product is cooking in January. 

This month, Murphy is averaging 29.1 PPG. He’s hit the Over in points in eight straight contests, and during that span, Murphy had three 30+ performances, and also a 42-point eruption.

Pistons vs Pelicans SGP

  • Cade Cunningham Over 10.5 assists
  • Jalen Duren Over 10.5 rebounds
  • Trey Murphy Over 20.5 points

Our "from downtown" SGP: Robinson on a roll

Duncan Robinson is on fire from deep right now, cashing the Over in made triples in five consecutive games.

Pistons vs Pelicans SGP

  • Cade Cunningham Over 10.5 assists
  • Jalen Duren Over 10.5 rebounds
  • Trey Murphy Over 20.5 points
  • Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 threes

Pistons vs Pelicans odds

  • Spread: Pistons -9.5 | Pelicans +9.5
  • Moneyline: Pistons -420 | Pelicans +330
  • Over/Under: Over 234.5 | Under 234.5

Pistons vs Pelicans betting trend to know

The Pistons have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 40 games (+16.70 Units / 16% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pistons vs. Pelicans.

How to watch Pistons vs Pelicans

LocationSmoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
DateWednesday, January 21, 2026
Tip-off8:00 p.m. ET
TVFDSN Detroit, GCSEN

Pistons vs Pelicans latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here

In The Lab: Houston Astros Starting Pitcher Projections

We looked at Astros hitter projections a couple of weeks ago and the natural follow up would be pitchers. However, I specifically waited on them because some projection systems had not released their projections yet. There are still some (like ZIPS) that are not universally available yet. However, there are now enough to get a good idea of what the industry as a whole thinks about the Astros rotation this year.

I should note a couple of things first. The main thing is that projection systems seem to do better with rate statistics like ERA, WHIP, K/9, and BB/9. They don’t do as well with innings, wins, strikeouts, and total walks. So, we are only looking at ERA today. It should also be noted (like we did with hitters) that it is Joe Espada’s job to marshal his resources to maximum advantage. That means choosing who gets to start, how often they start, and how deep into games he allows them to pitch. That will have more of an impact on counting numbers than ERA.

The second thing we should keep in mind is that projection systems are based primarily on batted ball statistics and ERA predictors like FIP, xERA, and SIERA. Those all based their numbers of the type of contact (and amount) a pitcher allows and usually they assume league average fielding and league average luck factors. Statistics like batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and left on base percent (LOB%) vary from year to year even with the same pitcher. Pitchers can control some of that by inducing weaker contact, more groundballs, or more pop flies, but there is a lot a ton of variance there as well. Astros pitchers seem to outpace the projections on a routine basis. Of course, we can look at that in the lab at another time as well.

Current Candidates

SteamerATCThe BatOOPSYB-refAggregate
Hunter Brown3.633.563.593.343.363.50
Mike Burrows4.224.164.334.004.014.14
Tatsuya Imai4.374.22——4.40——4.33
Ryan Weiss4.314.384.404.35——4.36
Nate Pearson4.324.544.754.004.854.49
Spencer Arighetti4.554.644.834.344.454.56
Lance McCullers4.384.594.614.455.114.63
Jason Alexander4.304.515.144.714.454.62
Cristian Javier4.964.814.844.804.284.74

You don’t have to be a math whiz to figure out the positives and negatives from the table above. I count nine starting pitchers there. Obviously, the max rotation the Astros will go with will be six. So, three of these guys will either be in the bullpen or in the minors. I should note that every projection system had Nate Pearson slated for the bullpen. He is on this list because the Astros have publicly said that he will be a candidate for the rotation coming out.

Once you get past Brown, you could put a blindfold on any of us and ask us to point at a name and we will come out with a similar pitcher in projected quality. Some of these are reasonable surprises. I think most observers are more hopeful that Javier and Imai will pitch better than their projections. I think most fans would be elated if McCullers managed to get close to this projection this year.

The rest are about what we would expect. The clear weakness is a lack of a number two pitcher. Framber Valdez routinely came in with ERAs of 3.50 or lower. He faded down the stretch last year and still came in under a four ERA. So, the math nerds at those various sites are telling us the Astros have not filled that particular role. That brings us to elephant in the room.

Potential additions

When we start talking additions we are looking at free agents and trades. There is quite literally an infinite possibility when it comes to trades, but the free agents are dwindling. There are two names coming to the forefront on both counts due to rumors circling Isaac Paredes and a potential reunion with a former Astros legend.

SteamerATCThe BatOOPSYB-RefAggregate
Brayan Bello4.394.324.384.323.854.25
Justin Verlander4.444.474.644.324.284.43

Obviously, Bello is part of a rumored return for Paredes. It would likely be either Bello, Jarren Duran, or Wilyer Abreu. We could get into those specifics at another time, but a part of the calculus on Bello is that he came up with a 3.35 ERA last season in Boston. Those aforementioned ERA projectors all came in considerably higher than that. So, this is one of those push and pull situations where we can fall on one side or the other.

On the one hand, he does not projected to be any better in quality than the other Astro hurlers. One of the reasons why you make a trade is that it allows you to improve your team in some area. That can be through a player for player swap or financial considerations that allow you to spend elsewhere. Bello would not save you money and based on the numbers above it would not remarkably improve your prospects.

However, Brown is the only pitcher above that hurled more than 100 innings last season at the big league level. Arighetti’s elbow is being held together by chewing gum and bailing wire. We don’t know what Imai’s workload will be and Javier barely came back from TJ surgery last season. When we throw in McCullers’ frequent ailments we can see that durability does have value. The deciding factor will likely be whether the scientists in the pitching lab think they can unlock something in Bello. We won’t know that until a deal is made.

As far as Verlander is concerned, there are two primary positives and one negative. The negative is the same as Bello. His numbers do not present a considerable bump over what is there. However, he would be another arm that would give the Astros a track record of innings. Adding both pitchers would be impractical, so it would be one or the other depending on what happens with a theoretical Paredes deal.

The main advantage Verlander brings is leadership and public relations. He probably doesn’t increase your winning odds materially through his pure numbers, but his impact on the clubhouse would be a factor and he would be a revenue generator for the franchise. They would need to move around some money to make that work, so it is an open question as to whether that is getting the best bang for your buck. Of course, that is also another topic for another day.