We're fading pitchers with our MLB picks for today, finding value in betting against a handful of struggling starters to continue being stuck in their rough patches.
Read on to see why our baseball experts are picking on Brayan Bello, Grant Holmes, Zac Gallen... and both pitchers in Miami/Minnesota.
UPDATE: Added more best bets from the Covers staff.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Marlins/Twins Over 9.5
Price: 46¢ (+122) at Polymarket
Mother Nature should help generate some runs in Minnesota today with 19-mph winds screaming out to center field. Eury Pérez has been giving up home runs on fly balls, while Bailey Ober owns a groundball rate that ranks in the bottom half of MLB starters (in fact, both pitchers carry groundball rates below 37%). Add in a Minnesota Twins bullpen sporting a 6.93 ERA over the last two weeks, and the runs could keep coming all game long. THE BAT is projecting 10.32 total runs.
Jon Metler's expert pick: Phillies moneyline
Price: 58¢ (-138) at Polymarket
When you can get value on a team with a true ace on the mound, it’s hard not to back the Philadelphia Phillies in this spot. Zack Wheeler gives Philadelphia a major advantage because he can work deep into games — and help them avoid the weaker middle relief portion of their bullpen. The Phillies are currently trading around 58 cents, but I make them closer to a 63-cent (-170) favorite, which leaves a solid edge on the number. The matchup also sets up well offensively for Philadelphia: Brayan Bello has struggled badly against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .366 batting average and a 1.143 OPS. Even if Jovani Moran opens the game from the left side, Bello will still eventually have to face dangerous left-handed bats like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
Neil Parker's expert pick: Cubs moneyline
Price: 46¢ (+117) at Polymarket
Atlanta righty Grant Holmes had his most recent turn in the rotation skipped after an ineffective four-start stretch that went to the tune of a 5.95 ERA while allowing a healthy 53.8% hard-hit rate, so I'm expecting the Chicago bats to pick up the tempo after being blanked in consecutive games against Texas this weekend. The Chicago Cubs also have a splash of statistical correction coming at the dish with their third-ranked .346 xwOBA well above their actual .325 wOBA over the past 12 games, and also considering Chicago has the second-highest walk rate and third-lowest strikeout percentage during that stretch.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Rangers moneyline
Price: 55¢ (-122) at Polymarket
The Texas Rangers look like the right side tonight with both starting pitchers showing extreme home/road splits and Arizona being ice-cold at the plate. Zac Gallen has been strong in Arizona but owns a 7.13 ERA on the road, while Texas starter MacKenzie Gore has been far more effective at home. Add that the D-backs have scored two runs or fewer in five of their last six games, and it’s hard to trust them tonight — especially since the Rangers' bullpen has also arguably been the best in baseball over the last month.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
San Diego, CA - May 10: Ramón Laureano #5 of the San Diego Padres runs to score in the tenth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Petco Park on May 10, 2026 in San Diego, CA. (Photo by K.C. Alfred / The San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images)
The San Diego Padres took a happy flight from San Diego to Milwaukee after splitting a four-game series at Petco Park with the St. Louis Cardinals. The Padres would have liked to win the series, but after a poor offensive showing over the four games at home, they will take winning two of the four games. San Diego scored a total of eight runs in four games, but on a positive note the pitching only allowed 12 runs. The current lack of offensive production cannot continue for much longer. If it does, the Padres’ luck may soon run out and the come-from-behind wins may become less likely due to player fatigue from constantly being held to one hit until the seventh inning when the San Diego offense wakes up and does just enough to get by – often in the final two or three innings of the game. The Brewers are coming off a sweep of the New York Yankees and are once again fighting for the National League Central Division crown. San Diego and Milwaukee faceoff today at 4:40 p.m. for the first of three games.
Padres News:
Everyone wants to diagnose and “fix” Fernando Tatis Jr. He does not have a home run this season but he has been able to contribute to Padres wins. The lack of power is newsworthy, but it is not like Tatis Jr. is just sitting on the bench collecting a paycheck.
Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribunebelieves the bullpen has been the reason the Padres have been able to stockpile wins as the stars of team work through their early season struggles.
Walker Buehler and the other starting pitchers for the Padres, not named Michael King or Randy Vasquez, have been a surprise to this point in the season, but their tightrope walk could become strained and will not be enough going forward if the offense cannot score.
Baseball News:
The Baltimore Orioles were no-hit by the Yankees for much of their game, but a three-run home run by Coby Mayo was all they would need to get a 3-2 win.
The New York Mets are looking for a spark, and they are hoping to get one from their No. 2 prospect A.J. Ewing who is being called up to make his MLB debut.
The Arizona Diamondbacks scored one run in the top of the first inning and Michael Soroka dominated on the mound to lead the Diamondbacks past the Texas Rangers, 1-0.
A.J. Ewing will make his big league debut. Ewing slashed .339/.447/.514 in 30 games across Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse before being promoted
Carson Benge is hitting .300/.352/.500 with two homers and four doubles in 54 plate appearances over his last 16 games
Freddy Peralta tossed five scoreless innings on May 6 against the Rockies in Colorado. In 43.1 innings over eight starts this season, Peralta has a 3.12 ERA and 1.20 WHIP
Today's Lineups
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METS
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The YouTuber turned boxer was stopped during December’s fight after a brutal shot from former world champion Joshua. Paul said the injury is still being monitored five months later.
James’ agent Rich Paul wasn’t sitting in his typical courtside seat. His high school friends weren’t waiting in the hallway to greet him, as they were when he became the league’s all-time leading scorer in 2023.
LeBron James speaking after the Lakers’ Game 4 loss. Getty Images
Sources close to James told the California Post that James is still uncertain about his future. He’s going to take some time and evaluate where he’s at mentally, physically and emotionally.
He echoed that after the Lakers were swept out of the playoffs by the Thunder with a 115-110 loss in Game 4 on Monday.
“I don’t know what the future holds for me, obviously,” said James, who had 24 points, 12 rebounds, three assists and one blocked shot.
He has to be coming back.
Kobe Bryant announced his retirement in November 2015, allowing sold-out crowds to honor him with standing ovations for nearly an entire season.
Even Tim Duncan waved at fans as he walked off the court for the final time.
James didn’t do anything Monday.
He has said he’s not sure if he wants a retirement tour. But after being in the spotlight since he was in middle school, it seems unimaginable that he would fade into the shadows without even so much as a goodbye. Without letting fans honor him one last time. Without marking the moment with the emotions and gravitas it deserves.
James isn’t retiring. He can’t.
He knows he can play at this level for another five years. He was the best player in the Lakers’ first-round playoff series against the Rockets. At age 41. In Year 23.
James explained that whether he returns will come down to if he’s “still in love with the process.” For him, that means whether he still wants to show up to arenas 5 1/2 hours before games and three hours before practices. Whether he still wants to pour his heart into his craft.
For him, it’s all or nothing.
“If I fell out of love with the process, then I probably fell out of love with the game,” James said. “Because then I’m not treating the game with respect for me personally because I know how much work that I put into it.”
James said he plans to talk to his family before making his decision. He’s going to give himself time to mull things over. He’s going to reflect on how he feels.
He became the Lakers’ third offensive option behind Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. He embraced that role even though he knew he could do much more. It made the offense hum, with the team going on a 16-2 run this spring.
“I’ve never been a third option in my life,” James said.
Everything changed after Doncic and Reaves suffered injuries April 2. James was asked to carry the Lakers into the postseason. He was asked to be him — again.
“That was pretty cool for me at this stage in my career,” he said.
James, who has led 10 teams to the Finals, winning four championships, showed that he’s still winning the battle against Father Time. He can still elevate for thunderous dunks. He can still dominate with his unique combination of power and agility. He can still be the best player on the court on any given night.
When asked if he has anything left to prove, he couldn’t help but chuckle.
“As far as me individually?” he asked. “No. No.”
James, who’s about to become an unrestricted free agent, has made it clear that at this stage in his career he wants to play for a winning team. If he’s willing to take a significant pay cut from the $52.6 million he earned this season, the Lakers would welcome him back.
It’s hard to imagine he’d want to leave Los Angeles.
His son, Bronny, is on the Lakers’ roster. His wife and 12-year-old daughter have put down roots in the city. He has become obsessed with golf under the Southern California sun.
Austin Reaves, who’s expected to turn down his $14.9 million player option and become a free agent, didn’t mince words when asked how he’d feel about playing alongside James for another season.
“It would mean the world to me,” Reaves said. “I don’t know anything different. My rookie year, I had no idea what the hell was going on and he basically took me under his wing and [has] given me every opportunity that I could ever ask for,”
As for Doncic, he was coy when asked if he was going to recruit James and the team’s other free agents to re-sign with the Lakers.
“We’ll see,” Doncic said, flashing a smile. “Can’t tell you nothing.”
LeBron James has a tough choice to make this offseason. AP
James has to be coming back. And the Lakers are likely his best option. Returning to Cleveland seems farfetched. When he was mentioning cities he doesn’t enjoy playing in earlier this season, he said, “I don’t like going home either.”
It seems highly unlikely he’d want to join a new franchise at this stage in his career, such as the Warriors or Knicks.
So, there’s a good chance he’ll return to the Lakers or retire.
And it just seems impossible that he’d retire.
Not like this. Not so unceremoniously.
James and the NBA have been synonymous for 23 years. He’s not only the face of the league, he’s its pulse. After two decades, he’s still dominating headlines and airwaves. He’s still the biggest star in a league of megastars.
He’s still LeBron James.
He would’ve let us say goodbye. We watched him grow up. We watched him enter the league as a bright-eyed 18-year-old under the most pressure of any prospect ever. We watched people root for him to fail. And we watched him sprint past all of the negativity, soaring above his sky-high expectations.
James’ retirement would be monumental. It would mark the end of an era. It would be a funeral. It would be a celebration.
It would be the conclusion of the most incredible career of any athlete in any sport.
This did not feel worthy of that moment.
This was not goodbye.
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ARLINGTON, TEXAS - MAY 11: Corey Seager #5 of the Texas Rangers is hit by a pitch during the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Globe Life Field on May 11, 2026 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images) | Getty Images
D-Backs 1, Rangers 0
Surprisingly, this was just the second time this season the Rangers have been shut out.
They have been held to just one run seven times, though. So it feels like they’ve been shut out more than twice.
On the one hand, once Nathan Eovaldi was scratched from his scheduled start on Monday, one wasn’t going to be flush with optimism about the Rangers’ chances.
On the other hand, the bullpen game worked out well for the Rangers, holding the D-Backs to just one run on six hits and two walks, one of which was intentional.
Well, kind of intentional? Cole Winn allowed a Ketel Marte double with one out, went 3-0 on Corbin Carroll, then Carroll was put on intentionally.
Winn seemed to be pretty clearly pitching around him, but if you throw more unintentional balls, even if they were kind of intentional, instead of intentional balls, is it really an intentional walk?
The one run in the game came on back-to-back one out first inning doubles by Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo off of Jakob Junis, who gave the Rangers 2.2 innings as the starter.
The Rangers have now allowed 30 runs in the first inning of games this season, and 123 runs in all the other innings combined.
Here’s something interesting…the Rangers have allowed no unearned runs in the first three innings of games this season. They’ve allowed three unearned runs in innings 4 through 6, and six unearned runs in innings 7 through 9.
Maybe the fielders are just getting tired as the game goes on.
Anyway, tip of the cap to Jakob Junis, Jalen Beeks, Peyton Gray, Cole Winn and Tyler Alexander, who did very fine work.
Too bad the offense did nothing.
Mike Soroka shut the Rangers down for 6.1 innings. He’s a fascinating story…he had a 6.0 bWAR season for Atlanta as a 21 year old in 2019. He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting, behind Pete Alonso, and sixth in the Cy Young voting. Jacob deGrom finished first, and Max Scherzer finished third.
Its still weird to think to myself, oh, yeah, Max Scherzer is a former Ranger. And not just any former Ranger…he won a ring for the Rangers!
Anyway, three games into the 2020 season Soroka tore his Achilles tendon, which required surgery. He missed all of 2021 and 2022 due to two more Achilles tendon surgeries. He split 2023 between AAA and the majors, and wasn’t good when he was in the majors. After the 2023 season he was sent to the White Sox in that weird trade when the ChiSox took on five guys the Braves were going to non-tender in exchange for Aaron Bummer.
Soroka wasn’t particularly good in 2024, signed with the Nationals for 2025, was underwhelming in their rotation, was traded to the Cubs at the deadline, and made one start and five relief appearances for them.
Arizona signed Soroka to a one year, $7.5 million deal this offseason, and he’s been pretty good for them. He had one disaster outing — an 8 run, three inning start against Milwaukee — but has a 3.53 ERA and 3.19 FIP overall.
And Soroka is still just 28 years old, which seems weird, because he’s seemingly been around forever. Someone who was getting Cy Young votes pre-pandemic shouldn’t be only 28 years old.
Anyway, the Rangers offense did a whole bunch of nothing against Soroka for 6.1 innings. After recording 19 outs, D-Backs manager Torey Lovullo went to lefty Brandyn Garcia with Evan Carter due up next.
We know what was going to happen next. If the Rangers are trailing and the opposition brings in a lefty to face Carter, Skip Schumaker is going to pinch hit for Carter. Schumaker went with Justin Foscue, who struck out. Andrew McCutchen then hit for Joc Pederson, and flew out.
Look, Evan Carter can’t hit lefties. We know that. You don’t want him to face a lefty.
But pulling him from the game with one out in the seventh, no one on base, so that Justin Foscue can hit? How much does that really increase your odds of winning?
And then, in the eighth, the Rangers had Foscue play second base, moved Ezequiel Duran from second base to left field, and Alejandro Osuna from left field to center field, meaning that the Rangers weakened themselves defensively at three position after that move.
The Marte double that Winn gave up was a screamer to left center that Osuna tried, and failed, to make a play on. There was some carping that Carter makes that play, but Statcast had it as a 5% catch probability, so Carter most likely doesn’t make that play. Still, the immediate reaction — my immediate reaction — when that happened was, man, I wish Carter was still in center field.
In the eighth, Osuna led off the inning with a single, then Jake Burger hit into a fielder’s choice. Sam Haggerty pinch ran for Burger. Haggerty promptly got picked off, which is how things went on Monday for the Rangers.
In the ninth, Brandon Nimmo and Ezequiel Duran were retired by Paul Sewald, and then Corey Seager was hit by a pitch, bringing up Josh Jung. Jung flew out to end the game. Had Jung gotten a hit other than a homer, though, you know would have been due up?
Justin Foscue. Against a righthanded reliever.
I’ve not been terribly impressed with Skip Schumaker as an in-game manager thusfar this season, and the late inning events from Monday kind of illustrate that. If the Rangers are trailing and a lefty reliever comes into the game, Evan Carter is being pinch hit for, because that’s what you do, even if its the seventh inning, no one is on base, you’re going to weaken yourself defensively in multiple positions as a result of the move, and it sets you up to have disadvantageous matchups later in the game.
Josh Jung had a 110.1 mph ground out. Brandon Nimmo had a 105.0 mph fly out.
Jakob Junis touched 93.3 mph with his fastball. Jalen Beeks reached 94.7 mph with his fastball. Peyton Gray maxed out at 92.7 mph with his fastball. Cole Winn’s fastball reached 95.9 mph. Tyler Alexander topped out at 91.9 mph with his fastball.
Let’s see if the Rangers can score a run on Tuesday.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox can swap stories of early-season gloom when they meet at Fenway Park tonight – but only one of these teams has been able to halt the spiral.
While Boston slips further from the .500 mark, Philadelphia is looking dangerous at last, and my Phillies vs. Red Sox predictions lean towards the visitors in this clash of marquee ballclubs.
Get the lowdown on this Tuesday, May 12, matchup with my free MLB picks.
Who will win Phillies vs Red Sox today: Phillies (-138)
What a difference a few weeks can make. Just when the obituaries were being written, the Philadelphia Phillies have climbed off the mat to win 10 of their last 13 contests, and I like Bryce Harper and Co. in this spot against the Boston Red Sox.
It also helps that the Phillies are handing the ball to Zack Wheeler tonight. He’s posted a 3.18 ERA so far this year, and Philadelphia has won all three of his starts.
After an eyebrow-raising sweep of the Tigers, the Red Sox came back to earth with a weekend series loss, and they’re just 7-12 at Fenway this season.
Phillies vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (+101)
With the Phillies heating up at the plate, I’m taking the Over tonight. It’s 7-3 in the visitors’ past 10 outings, and they scored 22 runs in the weekend series against the Rockies. That included four homers from Kyle Schwarber, with Alec Bohm and Harper also joining the party.
Philadelphia has also finished with 9+ hits in five of its last six games, so watch for solid production here, with Boston expected to use an opener before turning things over to Brayan Bello.
The Red Sox offense is the biggest cause for pause here, but the possible return of Willson Contreras would give the lineup a boost.
Tom Oldfield's 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 2-6, -4.93 units
Over/Under bets: 7-1, +5.31 units
Phillies vs Red Sox odds
Moneyline: Phillies -133 | Red Sox +127
Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+122) | Red Sox +1.5 (-127)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+108) | Under 8.5 (-113)
Phillies vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have lost nine of their last 12 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Phillies vs Red Sox and game info
Location
Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date
Tuesday, May 12, 2026
First pitch
6:45 p.m. ET
TV
NBCSP, NESN
Phillies starting pitcher
Zack Wheeler (1-0, 3.12 ERA)
Red Sox starting pitcher
TBD
Phillies vs Red Sox latest injuries
Phillies vs Red Sox weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
As detailed below, we do at least know which players are set to hit free agency and which have contract options.
The deadline for player and team option decisions is June 29. Free agency will formally kick off in earnest on June 30 at 6 p.m. ET. The list below covers the team’s standard roster spots and does not include two-way contract players MarJon Beauchamp and Tyrese Martin.
Kelly Oubre Jr. — unrestricted free agent
Oubre’s been one of the few mainstays in the Sixers’ lineup over the past three years.
He averaged 14.1 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.4 steals. Oubre dealt with elbow and knee injuries, missing 32 games, but he started all 11 of the Sixers’ postseason contests. The 30-year-old wing had his best three-point shooting season at 36 percent, although that number dipped to 25.6 percent in the playoffs.
Beyond the surface stats, the Sixers have appreciated Oubre’s defense on star wings and knack for cutting off of Joel Embiid.
“I love it here,” he said at his exit interview Sunday. “But this is not my first rodeo. I’ve averaged 20 points in this league and still found myself barely getting any contracts. At the end of the day, I’ve learned so much. The game of basketball has reinvented itself to me through different lenses and different eyes throughout my tenure here. I’m forever appreciative of the opportunity to play for this city.
“I obviously don’t like how it ended. I always say I like to finish what I start, and this is a bit sour for me. But at the end of the day, it’s already written. God already has it written upstairs and it’s just going to follow through. I hope I did myself a good service by being more efficient, slowing down and just playing better overall basketball. Just continue to grow as a human being and as a player. It’s already written and we’ll see where the chips fall.”
With rookie VJ Edgecombe’s emergence as the Sixers’ starting shooting guard, Grimes served mainly as the team’s sixth man for the 2025-26 campaign. In the regular season, Grimes played 29.4 minutes per game, averaged 13.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.3 assists, and shot 33.4 percent from three-point range. He logged 22.1 minutes per game in the playoffs and averaged 6.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists.
“I feel like I was able to prove myself every time I stepped on the court,” Grimes said at his exit interview. “If I had more responsibilities or I was in a bench role, just coming in and trying to make an impact any way I can.
“I’m kind of digesting the season as a whole right now. We had a pretty good season, considering everything we went through as a team, battling a whole bunch of stuff. But I haven’t really given any thought to what’s going on after today and what’s going on this summer. It’ll take care of itself, really.”
After struggling with a lingering left big toe injury in the 2024-25 season, Drummond was clearly a healthier, better player. The 32-year-old became a regular three-point shooter for the first time, going 32 for 90 (35.6 percent) from long distance. Drummond also made two triples in the Sixers’ play-in tournament win over the Magic and went 4 for 8 in the playoffs.
“If you would’ve told Andre Drummond at 17 that he was going to make a dagger three, I don’t think he would’ve believed you,” Drummond said after the play-in victory. “But there’s a lot of work that I’ve put into it, not only this year but throughout my entire career. I’ve worked countless hours … and the work is showing. Shoutout to (Sixers head coach) Nick Nurse for giving me the green light to shoot those shots.”
Kyle Lowry — unrestricted free agent
The 40-year-old Lowry hardly played outside of garbage time in the 20th season of his NBA career.
Lowry’s been a mentor to many Sixers, including Tyrese Maxey. After Lowry got a rare stint in the Sixers’ Nov. 28 win over the Nets, Maxey called the six-time All-Star and Raptors great “Coach Kyle.”
While his role diminished in the playoffs, Barlow still received minutes as both a power forward and small-ball center. The 22-year-old New Jersey native posted 7.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 0.9 steals per game in the regular season.
Trendon Watford — $2.8 million club option
Watford was sidelined for the start of the year by a hamstring injury. Unsurprisingly, the 25-year-old forward had natural chemistry with his close friend Maxey once he suited up. He had some encouraging moments during the regular season, including a 20-point triple-double against the Raptors on Nov. 8, but didn’t crack the Sixers’ playoff rotation.
May 11, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers catcher Kyle Higashioka (11) slides into first base safely as Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Ildemaro Vargas (6) attempts to double him up at first base during the sixth inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images
Good morning.
Shawn McFarland writes about a rip-roaring, scintillating 1-0 loss from the Texas Rangers at The Shed last evening.
Jeff Wilson writes that Nathan Eovaldi was scratched pregame to set up last night’s humiliation ritual for the Texas lineup.
Kennedi Landy writes that, even with the bats flailing and failing, the bullpen turned in an excellent performance on short notice.
McFarland notes that while relievers Chris Martin and Robert Garcia are working their way back, Josh Smith — on the IL for a glute strain — has a new pain in his ass with wrist inflammation.
Evan Grant holds a Q&A to discuss Kumar Rocker and Kumar Rocker adjacent topics.
BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 11: An aerial general view during a game between the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros on August 11, 2024 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This post is, I suppose, only really relevant to the subset of you that has MLB.tv and has interest in watching non-Braves games. If that’s you, how do you decide what non-Braves game to watch?
My answer is Stream Finder, which was once called Game Changer and was created by folks associated with Baseball Gauge, before it was acquired by Baseball-Reference. It kind of works less well now than it did before (not much ongoing support, if any), but the idea of being able to flip through games automatically based not only on in-game leverage, but the relevance of the teams, continues to be amazing.
If you’re not using that, what are you using? Do you just have a secondary team to watch, or do you just watch the other NL East teams and hope they lose?
May 1, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Baltimore Orioles catcher Samuel Basallo (29) singles during the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
The overwhelming sentiment surrounding the Orioles’ lineup right now is one of frustration—a frustration primarily aimed at young Orioles who aren’t making the grade. Gunnar Henderson is currently enduring one of the worst cold streaks of his career. Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo both can’t get above the Mendoza line and often look lost at the plate. Dylan Beavers is doing slightly better, but is still struggling to perform at a league-average level.
All of the turmoil and despair surrounding this lineup is what makes the evolution of Samuel Basallo so thrilling. Back on April 13th, Basallo went 0-for-4 with a strikeout in an Orioles win vs. the Diamondbacks. At that point, the 21-year-old backstop was slashing .136/.240/.273 with 15 strikeouts in 44 AB’s. Since then, Big Samuel has been a big problem for opposing pitchers.
In the 21 games since, the rookie catcher is hitting .352 with hits in 13 of his last 15 games. Basallo isn’t sacrificing power to maintain a better average, either. Throughout his hot streak, the 21-year-old is slugging .592 with six doubles, three homers and his first career triple.
It’s not shocking that Basallo is producing at the major league level. You need immense talent to be a Top 10 prospect in all of baseball and make your major league debut four days after your 21st birthday. However, what is suprising is how quickly he’s made adjustments that seasoned big league hitters often struggle to make.
Basallo’s profile—a towering power hitter with a willingness to chase pitches—is often one that takes time to adjust to the big leagues. They’re the type of bats that are used to clobbering fastballs against minor league pitchers, and often can’t lay off good changeups and breaking balls or handle the higher velocities that comes from big league pitchers. Cowser has been a victim of the former pitfall, and he was supposed to have a better hit tool as a prospect than Basallo.
And that’s what Basallo was through the first 150 AB’s of his MLB career. Dating back to his debut last August, the catcher started his career hitting .157 with a near 30% strikeout rate. Sure there were the occassional fireworks—like his walk-off homer agains the Dodgers—but every time he stepped to plate, it felt like a young hitter going through real struggles for the first time in his proffesional career.
Now, Samuel Basall0 at-bats feel like hope. The changes in his approach are so evident that it not only feels like the sky is the limit for the young Dominican, but that other Orioles hitters can make similarly meaningul adjustments. Watch him hit and it becomes clear that he’s no longer trying to hit home runs on every pitch he sees. From April to May, his line-drive rate has jumped from 24.1% to 36%, while his fly ball rate has dipped from 27.6% to 20%. That increase in qualify of contact has seen his average exit velocity for the season jump to 932 mph, 16th-best in all of baseball.
The Orioles’ backstop has also become increasingly patient. His pitches per plate appearance has jumped from 3.54 throughout the first month of the season, to 3.94 since the beginning of May. His chase rate against breaking balls and off-speed pitches have all dropped significantly, from about 41% to begin the season to down to 32% the past couple weeks.
However, it’s one thing to look at his Baseball Savant page and see a bunch of graphs trending in the right direction. It’s another to see him attack a perfectly-executed back door slider and shoot it 106 mph the other way for a double. Please, watch it and then watch it again. You know you want to.
The leaps we’ve seen from Basallo has ramifications for the right now and the long term roster construction for the Orioles. Basallo’s big leap has helped this offsense stay afloat through the unexpected struggles of Henderson and the inability to get any consistent production from the bottom third of the lineup.
The rate at which he’s risen to a prominent position in the lineup also means the Orioles don’t have chase power bats as they continue to try and build a winner in Baltimore. With recent additions such as Tyler O’Neill, Taylor Ward and Peter Alsono, the O’s have made it clear how badly they wanted to add power to this batting order. With Basallo entrenching himself in the 3-4-5 part of the order, it should empower the front office to pursue players who can help raise the team’s on-base percentage instead.
It’s also not purely coincidental that Basallo’s rise has come along side the best baseball of Adley Rutschman’s career. Pairing Basallo with Rutschman allows Rutschman to assume his best role as table-setter and offensive-catalyst rather than primary run producer. It also allows the O’s to keep Rutschman well-rested without having to worry about a decline in production behind the plate. And while Basallo is not the threat to Adley’s futuer with the O’s that many assume, it still undoubtedly provides Adley a push that keeps him locked it in.
There are still players on the O’s playing at a similar level as the young catcher. Ward has exceed every expectation even while under-performing in the powere department. Rutschman and Pete Alonso are both living up to their talent levels. But this is an Orioles team that needs proof of concept that things can go wrong and turn around. Samuel Basallo is that hope.
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MAY 06: Brandon Marsh #16 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates an RBI single in the eighth inning against the Athletics at Citizens Bank Park on May 06, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s hard to overstate just how good Brandon Marsh has been so far this season. He was leading all of Major League Baseball in batting average with a .353 mark entering play on Monday. He’s hitting an absurd .519 (14-27) over his last seven games played and his four home runs on the year are already almost half of his 2025 homer total. Not all of this is a small sample either, as Marsh is hitting .317 with an .852 OPS across 518 plate appearances dating back to his return from injury on May 3rd of 2025.
But of course, one caveat with Marsh has always been his struggles against left handed pitching. Since arriving in Philadelphia, Marsh has hit .213 with a .611 OPS against lefties. He was particularly bad against lefties last season, hitting .197 with a strikeout rate of 36.4%. He’s been better so far in 2026, hitting .286 against lefties with a .680 OPS, but it’s been in an extremely limited 31 plate appearances as the Phillies have mostly deployed Marsh as part of a platoon.
Herein lies the problem with that so far in 2026 though. All of the right handed hitters the Phillies have played in left field this season, primarily Otto Kemp and Felix Reyes, have hit a combined .114 with a .318 OPS. Both of those marks are dead last in baseball among right handed hitting left fielders. Their 34.1% strikeout rate is second worst. It’s only been 44 plate appearances, but clearly this is a major weakness with the Phillies roster.
The team has correctly identified that Marsh should be limited against left handed pitching, but for at least the fourth straight season, they’ve also failed to find a competent right handed platoon partner for him. Marsh is likely to start seeing more playing time as an everyday player regardless of the opposing starting pitcher, especially considering rookie Justin Crawford’s own struggles against lefties so far in his young MLB career.
So, should Brandon Marsh start everyday for the Phillies at the moment? It’s not an ideal solution, as again Marsh has been a poor hitter against lefties. But even his poor numbers are a massive upgrade over the current alternatives.
DALLAS, TX - APRIL 29: Cooper Flagg #32 of the Dallas Mavericks poses for a portrait during the 2026-26 Rookie of the Year Presentation on April 29, 2026 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
After going 13-15 across December and January, the Mavs completely spun out in February, all but spelling the end of their season. Losing felt like it would bring longer term value than winning and there was little to get excited about night-to-night. Then, as he had done many times throughout his rookie campaign, Cooper Flagg came to the rescue with a Rookie of the Year effort that kept things interesting through the final day of the Mavs’ season.
March/April Record: 5-18 (26-56 overall)
March began with a single home game, followed by one of the longest road trips in recent memory. Once again, the Mavs came into the month on a losing streak and tacked on six more losses to bring the overall skid to eight. Not quite as bad as the 10-game slide bridging January to February, but a combined 18 losses across those two streaks was devastating. For perspective, the Oklahoma City Thunder lost 18 games across the entire season. Dallas lost four-of-six contests in April, but walked away with a win in game 82 against the Chicago Bulls. This outcome pulled them into a tie with the New Orleans Pelicans, to whom they subsequently lost a coin flip for worse draft standing.
Six game road trip
Beginning March 3, the Mavs embarked on a six-game trek. Dallas was not a good road team (10-30 record) so six road games in 10 nights was not what they needed. Dallas finished the trip going 1-5, with the sole victory coming in the final game against the Memphis Grizzlies. The final two months of the season saw Dallas play 23 road games to only nine at home. The early home cooking had to give way at some point, and this was the time.
Cooper Flagg pours in 51
Flagg sat out eight-straight games from February 12 to March 3, and when he returned, his previously tight grip on the Rookie of the Year award had loosened in the eyes of many media pundits. Kon Knueppel, Flagg’s former college teammate, had made a push while the spotlight was solely focused on him, so Flagg needed to lock in to finish strong. He turned it on at just the right time. In Dallas’ first game of April, he dropped 51 points on the Orlando Magic. This outstanding performance came on 19-for-30 shooting overall, including 6-for-9 from downtown and 7-for-7 from the free throw line. Flagg also had six boards, three assists, three steals, and a block. As an encore, he scored 45 points in the very next game.
Rookie of the Year
By April 27, the Mavericks’ season was already over. 82 games were in the books and Dallas would be watching the Playoffs instead of participating in them. Still, there was one outcome yet to be determined – Rookie of the Year. Flagg added a silver lining for Mavs’ fans by netting 56 first place votes to Knueppel’s 44, winning the award with 412 points which was good for a 26 point margin of victory. Flagg put together an amazing rookie year and left the 2025-2026 season with a reminder that he is only going to get better as the face of the franchise going forward.
I invite you to follow me @_80MPH on X, and check back often at Mavs Moneyball for all the latest on the Dallas Mavericks.
MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - MAY 10: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves drives to the basket against Stephon Castle #5 of the San Antonio Spurs during the second quarter in Game Four of the Second Round of the NBA Western Conference Playoffs at Target Center on May 10, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Berding/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs Date: May 12th, 2026 Time: 7:00 PM CDT Location: Frost Bank Center Television Coverage: NBC, Peacock
After four games of chaos, blood pressure spikes, blown opportunities, sudden reversals, superstar theater, and at least one officiating decision that will be discussed in San Antonio like it was the Zapruder film, the Minnesota Timberwolves and San Antonio Spurs are tied 2-2, staring down a Game 5 that feels like the hinge point of the entire Western Conference Semifinals.
This series has already been a full-blown emotional obstacle course. Game 1 gave us Anthony Edwards’ miraculous return and a Wolves team that had found just enough offense and defense to steal home court. Game 2 gave us the complete Minnesota meltdown, the kind of performance you bury in a field. Game 3 gave us Victor Wembanyama’s masterpiece. And then Game 4 gave us something even stranger: Wembanyama’s ejection, Anthony Edwards’ Michael Jordan-esque fourth quarter, and a Wolves win that was both exhilarating and wildly uncomfortable, which is the most Timberwolves way possible to tie a playoff series.
Game 4 was the kind of game that takes years off your life but somehow makes you feel more alive. For the first quarter and a half, up until Wembanyama’s exit, it was shaping up to be a classic. The Wolves had clearly responded to their Game 3 disappointment with more energy, more defensive discipline, and the kind of edge they needed with their season hovering dangerously close to the ledge. This looked like it was going to be a long, tense, physical fight with Wemby on the floor.
Then Wembanyama’s elbow flew through space, caught Naz Reid in the head and neck area, and changed everything.
Spurs fans are going to be salty about that Flagrant 2 for the next decade, and honestly, if the roles were reversed and Anthony Edwards had been tossed from that kind of game, Wolves Nation likely would have reacted similarly. It was a tricky situation. By the letter of the law, the ejection made sense. It was high contact, reckless, and dangerous. At the same time, Wembanyama is not exactly known as some dirty enforcer out there trying to collect heads like he’s in an old NHL rivalry series. He was being hounded aggressively by Naz and Jaden McDaniels, the stakes were enormous, emotions were high, and one bad swing of the arm suddenly became the defining moment of the night.
But once the call was made, Wemby was gone, and every Wolves fan had the same two thoughts hit at the exact same time.
The first: “We’re going to win this game.”
The second: “We’re absolutely going to screw this up.”
Because if you know this team, you know nothing is ever that simple. If this were some Tuesday night in February and the opponent’s best player got sent to the locker room, you could practically set your watch to the Wolves mentally relaxing, letting the intensity drop, and turning a golden opportunity into a maddeningly preventable loss. The fear wasn’t irrational. It was historical conditioning. Minnesota has trained its fans to treat good fortune like it might be a trap door.
What followed was a little bit of both. The Wolves did not fully coast, but they were not crisp either. They got sloppy. Turnovers squandered opportunities. Missed bunnies around the rim kept San Antonio alive. Defensive rotations arrived a half-beat late, and those half-beats became good looks for the Spurs. Rudy Gobert got outworked by Luke Kornet on a few possessions. Julius Randle had too many moments where he tried to bully his way through traffic and got his pocket picked. Pretty much everyone not named Anthony Edwards had stretches where they could have been cleaner, sharper, and more ruthless.
The monkey’s paw had curled. Minnesota got its wish and Wembanyama vanished from the game. But in his place came an unconscious De’Aaron Fox, who suddenly looked like he was playing mid-range basketball with a cheat code activated. He penetrated at will, pulled up in rhythm, and kept splashing shot after shot as the Wolves defense tried to find its footing. With eight minutes left in the fourth quarter, San Antonio held an eight-point lead, and the game had become less about matchups and more about will. Who was going to blink first? Who was going to seize the moment? Who was going to decide that this game mattered too much to let it slip away?
That answer, finally and emphatically, was the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Terrence Shannon Jr. hit back-to-back clutch corner threes that changed the shape of the game. Those shots mattered not just because they put points on the board, but because they punished San Antonio for loading up on Edwards. For most of the night, the Spurs were determined to meet Ant with resistance the moment he crossed half court, throwing bodies at him, shrinking the floor, and daring someone else to beat them. Shannon made them pay. Suddenly, the Spurs could not treat every Edwards touch like a five-alarm fire without leaving themselves vulnerable elsewhere.
Jaden McDaniels kept hounding Fox until those clean mid-range looks started clanging off the rim. The Wolves bigs finally grabbed the boards that had to be grabbed. And Anthony Edwards, with Wembanyama sidelined and the season threatening to slip into a 3-1 hole, left absolutely no doubt about who the best player on the floor was.
That fourth quarter was signature Ant. It was the kind of forceful, assassin-like stretch that makes you understand why this franchise lives and dies with him. He put the team on his back. He attacked. He created. He bent the game around his presence. He did not have the advantage of being 7-foot-6 with a wingspan that looks like it requires FAA clearance, but he had something else: the competitive stubbornness to stare down the moment and refuse to let the Wolves lose.
Minnesota flipped an eight-point deficit into a seven-point lead, which should have been enough to let everyone breathe. Naturally, it wasn’t. Because this is Wolves basketball, they still had to turn the final seconds into a stress test. The late inbounds turnover gave San Antonio life. Jaden McDaniels then had to uncork a Culpepper—to-Moss full-court pass, leaving Ayo Dosunmu and Fox fighting for possession like a wide receiver and cornerback on the final play of an NFC playoff game. The somehow ball nicked Ayo’s heel to stay inbounds, the clock bled down, and eventually the Wolves escaped with the win by the skin of their teeth.
If you left those 48 minutes feeling physically, mentally, and emotionally exhausted, congratulations. You watched the same game the rest of us did. It was a heart attack and an aneurysm disguised as a basketball game.
And now comes Game 5 in San Antonio, where one team will seize control of this series and force the other to win two straight to survive. It is not technically a must-win for Minnesota, but let’s not deny the stakes. The winner of Game 5 will have a massive advantage. If the Wolves steal this one on the road, they come home to Target Center with a chance to end the series and crush a young Spurs team under the weight of its first true playoff crisis. If they lose, they are suddenly one defeat from elimination, needing to win Game 6 at home and then return to San Antonio for a Game 7 against Wembanyama, Fox, and a Spurs team that would be growing more confident by the hour.
So yes, this is a big one.
And with that, here are the keys to Game 5.
1. Keep Pushing Wembanyama to the Brink
The Wolves finally ratcheted up their physicality on Wembanyama in Game 4 after getting a bit too timid in Games 2 and 3, and it paid dividends in ways nobody could have predicted. No one was expecting McDaniels and Reid swarming him like gnats to eventually lead to a swinging elbow and an ejection, but the larger point remains: Minnesota made him uncomfortable. They put bodies on him. They crowded his space. They made him feel the game instead of letting him float through it.
The Wolves cannot allow Wembanyama to cruise into another stat-stuffing night like he did in Game 3. He is too good, too long, too disruptive, and too capable of reshaping the entire game on both ends if he gets comfortable. Minnesota needs to body him up, push him off his spots, fight him on the glass, and make every possession feel like work. This is not about being reckless or dirty. It is about making the series physically expensive.
Randle, Gobert, Naz, McDaniels all need to contribute to that effort. Every catch should come with pressure. Every rebound should come with contact. Every drive should come with bodies. The Spurs want Wembanyama to be the calm center of their universe. The Wolves need to make him play in traffic, make him absorb hits, and make him feel that this is a playoff war against a team that has been through too many battles to be intimidated by height alone.
Wembanyama is going to respond. Great players do. But the Wolves cannot let him dictate the terms. They need to impose their physical will and leave an unmistakable mark on Game 5.
2. Make San Antonio Pay for Loading Up on Edwards
San Antonio’s game plan is clear: Anthony Edwards must see bodies at all times. The Spurs are picking him up near half court, shading extra defenders toward him, and forcing him to operate in crowds. They understand that Edwards is the one player on Minnesota’s roster who can consistently flip a playoff game through sheer force of will, so they are doing everything they can to make his life miserable.
The Wolves need to punish that strategy with quick decisions and trust.
Game 4 gave them the template. When Shannon hit those back-to-back corner threes in the fourth quarter, it was a release valve. It forced San Antonio to pay a tax for overcommitting to Edwards. Suddenly, loading up on Ant was not cost-free. Suddenly, the Spurs had to think twice before collapsing three defenders into his driving lane. That is how Minnesota creates room for its superstar without asking him to play one-on-four.
Edwards has shown a Wolverine-like ability to heal and an almost supernatural capacity to make impossible athletic plays, but even he cannot simply bulldoze through a defense that is selling out to stop him. The smarter move is to use his gravity. Make the early pass. Trust the corner shooter. Reward the cutter. Keep the ball moving until San Antonio’s defense has to rotate, recover, and eventually break. Edwards has to play as the hub of the offense, not the entire offense. If the Spurs want to overload on him, his teammates need to make them regret it.
3. Win the Battle on the Boards
In a series this tight, the math matters. Rebounds are possessions. Possessions are chances. Chances are survival.
Minnesota has generally done a solid job contesting shots and securing boards, even with Wembanyama’s absurd height advantage lurking over everything. The Wolves do not have one player who can match Wemby’s size, but they do have more big bodies they can throw into the fight. This has to be a full-team rebounding effort.
The Wolves need to use that collective size and strength to clean the glass, deny San Antonio second-chance opportunities, and create high-percentage putbacks of their own. They cannot allow the Spurs to miss, recover, reset, and take another swing. San Antonio is already hard enough to guard the first time through. Giving them second and third looks is asking to get buried.
The defensive glass is especially critical because it also fuels Minnesota’s transition opportunities. When the Wolves rebound cleanly, they can run before Wembanyama gets set. They can get Edwards downhill. They can let Shannon use his first step. They can put pressure on San Antonio before the Spurs defense becomes a full Wemby-centered fortress.
Rebound, run, and make the Spurs defend before they are comfortable. That is how Minnesota tilts the possession battle in its favor.
4. Don’t Let the Spurs Kill You in Transition
When Minnesota gets its defense set, it can pressure San Antonio. The Wolves can rotate, wall off lanes, send help, and make the Spurs grind through possessions. But when San Antonio gets out and runs, the Wolves suddenly look much more vulnerable.
That has been one of the clearest swing factors in the series.
The Spurs want to turn misses and turnovers into speed. Fox is lethal when he can attack before the defense is organized. San Antonio’s young legs become a real weapon when Minnesota is retreating, cross-matched, and scrambling. Wembanyama running into unsettled possessions is a completely different problem than Wembanyama working against a set defense. Sprint back. Communicate. Match up. Do not admire missed shots. Do not complain to the refs while the Spurs are racing the other way.
A huge part of it is ball security. Careless turnovers are gasoline for San Antonio’s transition game, and Julius Randle, in particular, has to be better. He cannot keep getting his pocket picked while trying to post up and bully his way toward the rim. That happened too many times in Game 4, and if not for Edwards’ fourth-quarter heroics, it may have cost Minnesota the game.
Sloppiness has no place in Game 5. Not with the series hanging in the balance. Take care of the ball, get back on defense, and force San Antonio to beat you in the half court.
5. Anthony Edwards Needs to Elevate Again
It is a lot to ask of a player dealing with runner’s knee on one side and a hyperextension and bone bruise on the other, but the Wolves need apex Edwards as this series moves into Game 5.
This postseason has featured different Wolves stepping up at different moments. Jaden McDaniels dominated defensively and attacked the rim against Denver. Ayo Dosunmu delivered his 43-point masterpiece. Mike Conley entered the time machine and gave Minnesota critical stretches. Terrence Shannon Jr. has used his first step to create easy offense. Rudy Gobert has shouldered the massive burden of guarding Nikola Jokic and then Victor Wembanyama. Those performances have kept the Wolves alive while Edwards has battled through injury.
But Game 4’s fourth quarter reminded everyone where this team’s ceiling truly lives.
With Ant.
When things are going sideways, Edwards is the one player on the roster who can consistently grab control of the game and bend it back toward Minnesota. His shot has to ring true. His burst toward the rim has to be aggressive. He needs to draw contact, facilitate, and make the game revolve around him without devolving into stagnant isolation ball. The Wolves need surgical Ant who reads the defense, punishes the double, attacks the mismatch, trusts the open teammate, and then turns into a closer when the game demands it.
This series was billed as Wembanyama’s coming-out party. He was the Defensive Player of the Year and future MVP ushering the Spurs into a new era. But looming in the shadow of that giant is an Ant, smaller in stature but enormous in competitive force. He may not have Wemby’s physical dimensions, but he has the heart, the aggression, the determination, and the will to win that showed up when Minnesota needed it most in Game 4.
If the Wolves are going to win two of the next three and move on to another Western Conference Finals, Edwards has to keep elevating.
The Hinge Game
It is hard to overstate the importance of Game 5.
No, it is not technically a must-win, but in practical terms, it is the game that will decide the shape of the rest of the series. Whoever wins will hold a tremendous advantage. If San Antonio wins, Minnesota comes home facing elimination, needing to win two straight to save its season and keep alive the dream of a third consecutive Western Conference Finals. If the Wolves win, the pressure flips violently onto the Spurs, who would have to walk into Target Center and survive a Game 6 with their season on the line.
That is the difference between control and desperation.
San Antonio will be angry. They will be motivated. Wembanyama will almost certainly come out with something to prove after the ejection. Fox will believe he has found something after his heater. The Spurs will be at home, energized, and fully aware that this is their chance to reclaim the series. Minnesota has to match that intensity from the opening tip.
This has been a long, difficult hunt. Both teams have taken their swipes. Both have drawn blood. Both have shown they can hurt the other. Now one of them gets the chance to step on the other’s neck and set up a kill shot in Game 6.
The Wolves need to make sure that shot belongs to them.
That means physicality on Wembanyama. Trust and ball movement. Dominance on the glass. Discipline in transition. And, when the moment gets tight, Ant-Man rising again to remind everyone that this team’s title dreams still run through him.
Mar 12, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; NC State Wolfpack guard Matt Able (3) shoots in the first half at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
When Juke Harris met with UNC head coach Michael Malone and staff at a restaurant in Salisbury a month ago, Harris seemed determined to test the NBA waters in the combine. UNC decided to shift its attention to a different option, Matt Able, a rising sophomore who put together a promising freshmen season at NC State.
The good news: Able looks to be a promising, NBA-bound talent. The bad news: that NBA destination may be calling sooner rather than later.
ESPN released its latest mock draft, and their prognosticators speculate Able might land with the Houston Rockets at pick 39. That’s the upper third of the 2nd round, which last year earned those picks guaranteed two-year contracts similar to first round picks. Bonus: Able accepted an invitation to work out at the NBA Draft Combine, which runs this week.
You will note that Juke Harris does not appear in that mock draft. Juke opted to forego the NBA Combine and sign with Tennessee, for a number rumored to be as much as $5 million. So, we passed on Juke because we couldn’t wait for the Combine. Instead, we signed a talent who’s going to test the combine, with at least one major media outlet placing him in the portion of the draft where players get two guaranteed years.
Other major mocks don’t mention Able at all, although it’s unclear if they don’t deem him a draft pick or they expect him to return to UNC. Both would be good news for Tar Heel fans. Rookie Scale, which averages results from reputable mocks, lists Able at pick 56. The Athletic (free article) excludes Able completely, perhaps due to an emphasis on not projecting picks who might return to college. The ESPN mock draft for the time being remains a significant outlier.
In all probability, Able gets a combine under his belt to gain experience for next year and plays for UNC next season. A couple of outstanding workouts and scrimmages, however, could muddy the waters considerably. So, should we be worried about Able being at UNC next season?
As a lifelong Tar Heel fan, I rarely miss an opportunity to worry, so, for me: yes.
Josh Inglis: MIA/MIN o9.5
Jon Metler: PHI ML
Neil Parker: CHC ML
Joe Osborne: TEX ML
COVERS INTEL: Despite a late start to his season, Wheeler hasn't missed a beat, ranking in the 
