Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Cubs play a three-game series in Chicago starting on Friday afternoon...

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5 things to watch

Offensively bad

During their eight-game losing streak, the Mets have scored 12 runs, which is almost impossible to believe.

In those eight contests, all without Juan Soto, New York has been shut out three times while being held to one or two runs on four occasions.

Against the Dodgers earlier this week, it was starting pitchers Justin Wrobleski (who tossed a career-high eight innings), Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Shohei Ohtani who gave New York fits.   

And it's not like New York has been hitting into much hard luck.

Their hitters have often been in between while missing hittable fastballs, expanding the zone, failing to work the count, and hitting the ball on the ground at an alarming rate.

"We’re not dictating at-bats," Carlos Mendoza said after Wednesday's loss. "Getting beat by fastballs even though there was some good fastballs by Ohtani today -- we swung through a lot of them today. We have to be able to put pressure and be in attack mode. Right now, understanding what guys are going through is contagious. At the same time, nobody is feeling sorry for us. We got to be able to dictate at-bats."

Will Kodai Senga rebound?

Senga looked fantastic in his first two starts of the season, allowing just four runs on nine hits in 11.2 innings while striking out 17. 

His last start was different, as the right-hander was touched up by the A's to the tune of seven runs on eight hits (including two home runs) in 2.1 innings.

There was some poor fielding behind Senga against the A's, but his stuff wasn't nearly as good as it was in his first two starts.

Senga generated just six swings and misses on 72 pitches against the A's after getting 12 on 88 pitches against the Giants on April 5 and 17 on 92 pitches against the Cardinals on March 31. 

Meanwhile, Senga's average four-seam fastball velocity has been ticking down. It was 97.4 mph against the Cards, 96.0 against the Giants, and 95.6 against the A's.

Carson Benge is looking more comfortable

After going through an 0-for-22 funk that led some to muse about a potential demotion that David Stearns quickly shot down, Benge has started to look more like the hitter he was in spring training.

Benge has hit safely in five of his last six games, and reached base safely in seven of his last eight.

Against the Dodgers on Wednesday, Benge ripped a double and had a would-be single (on a liner to left field) that was turned into a fielder's choice when Francisco Alvarez got tied up between first base and second base and was forced out.

Benge finding a groove would be a big development for a Mets team that is dealing with huge slumps by Brett Baty and Mark Vientos, and underperformance from most of their other regulars. 

Chicago's starting pitching depth is being tested

The Cubs are still without Justin Steele, who underwent UCL surgery early last season.

In 2026, they have lost Cade Horton for the year due to elbow surgery and been without Matthew Boyd, who is working his way back from a biceps issue.

But Chicago has patched things together, due in part to the offseason trade that brought them Edward Cabrera.

Against the Mets, the Cubs will send out Cabrera on Friday, Jameson Taillon on Saturday, and Javier Assad on Sunday.

Cabrera was hit a bit against the Pirates in his last start, but has been tremendous overall, with a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in  16.2 innings over his first three starts.

Pete Crow-Armstrong is going through it

It has been a struggle offensively for PCA since he blew the doors off to start 2025, in a year where he wound up smashing 31 homers. 

Over the final two months of last season, Crow-Armstrong slashed just .188/.237/.295 with four home runs in 200 plate appearances.

So far this season, he is hitting .236/.276/.306 with one home run in 72 at-bats.

Crow-Armstrong has been a bit better recently, though, with five hits in his last 14 at-bats.

Defensively, he remains one of the best center fielders in baseball, rating in the 99th percentile in OAA.

Predictions

Who will the MVP of the series be?

Bo Bichette

Bichette is hitting .292 with a .346 OBP since April 3.

Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?

Freddy Peralta

Since allowing four runs on Opening Day, Peralta has a 2.81 ERA in 16.0 innings over his last three starts, allowing 10 hits while striking out 18.

Which Cubs player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?

Alex Bregman

Bregman carries a six-game hitting streak into the series. 

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For most of a season that, in the grand scheme of things is still in its infancy, most of the angst directed at the Phillies has been towards an inconsistent and maddening offense.

That, of course, makes sense. After all, it has been the lineup that has torpedoed four attempts by this talented team to win a World Series. But in the three-game series the Phils just wrapped up against the Cubs, the pitching staff gave up 28 runs, capped off by Jesus Luzardo’s astonishing implosion Wednesday night:

• 5.1 IP, 12 H, 9 R, 8 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

Through 18 games, this vaunted pitching staff’s ERA stands at 4.92, 5th-worst in Major League Baseball. Only the Cardinals (4.94), White Sox (5.02), Nationals (5.89) and Astros (6.17), have been worse. They have allowed a league-high .272 batting average against them. Phillies’ pitchers are every bit as responsible for their -25 run differential that is 3rd-worst in the league.

• White Sox (-38)
• Giants (-27)
• Phillies (-25)
• Blue Jays (-24)

It is still very early in the season. Only 18 games have been played. And yes, it does provide some comfort that the defending AL pennant winners (Toronto) are off to the same rough start as the Phils.

If you’re a bit bewildered by the Phillies’ pitchers through the first three weeks of the season, you have every right to be. We’ve seen multiple instances where they like world beaters for long stretches and then are suddenly done in by the big inning or a single lackluster start. As a result, the overall numbers of the individual pitchers don’t look great.

Cristopher Sanchez’ ERA remains a sparkling 2.01 through his first four starts, even though he hasn’t featured his best stuff as of yet. Andrew Painter’s is 3.77, Aaron Nola’s is 4.03, Luzardo’s jumped to a ghastly 7.94 after Wednesday night’s disaster, and Taijuan Walker’s 7.36 ERA is also unsightly.

When the strength of the team is supposed to be the starting rotation, these types of numbers foment an 8-10 start.

But the underlying metrics for the staff indicate they have been, by far, the unluckiest pitching staff in baseball through the season’s first three weeks.

According to Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement, their 3.5 fWAR is 2nd-best in MLB, behind only the Seattle Mariners (3.7). Yes, that’s right, Fangraphs believes the Phillies have the No. 2 pitching staff in baseball thus far. Although their 4.92 ERA is 5th-worst, their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.06 is 2nd-best. There is not a single pitcher of note on the entire staff who is out-pitching his underlying metrics.

• Cristopher Sanchez: 2.01 ERA, 1.90 FIP (0.11 E-F)
• Aaron Nola: 3.56 ERA, 4.03 FIP, (0.47 E-F)
• Taijuan Walker: 7.36 ERA, 6.50 FIP (0.87 E-F)
• Andrew Painter: 3.77 ERA, 1.55 FIP (2.21 E-F)
• Jesus Luzardo: 7.94 ERA, 2.49 FIP (5.05 E-F!!!)

For the uninitiated, FIP uses a formula that factors in only strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed, filtering out batted ball data that is largely out of a pitcher’s control. No team in baseball has a larger gap between their ERA and FIP than the Phillies. In fact, their 1.86 difference is a full run more than the next closest team, the Astros (0.85). It is not a perfect statistic, but it is useful to help make sense of things when results don’t meet the eye test.

The bullpen has the same issues.

• Zach Pop: 3.68 ERA, 3.16 FIP (0.52 E-F)
• Jhoan Duran: 1.35 ERA, 0.76 FIP (0.59 E-F)
• Tim Mayza: 3.00 ERA, 2.27 FIP (0.73 E-F)
• Brad Keller: 4.70 ERA, 3.55 FIP (1.15 E-F)
• Kyle Backhus: 7.71 ERA, 6.37 FIP (1.34 E-F)
• Tanner Banks: 5.40 ERA, 3.46 FIP (1.94 E-F)
• Orion Kerkering: 4.15 ERA, 2.00 FIP (2.15 E-F)
• Jonathan Bowlan: 3.36 ERA, 1.30 FIP (2.56 E-F)
• Jose Alvarado: 10.50 ERA, 2.49 FIP (8.01 E-F!!!)

Phillies pitchers are striking a ton of guys out, the 3rd-highest rate in baseball (26.2%), while at the same time are the 2nd-stingiest staff in terms of walks (6.7%). They also are a top-10 staff in avoiding home runs, with their 0.84 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) tied with the Dodgers’ staff for 8th.

The reason Phils pitchers are giving up so few home runs is because they are inducing more ground balls than any team in baseball (49.9%). They’re also elite at not allowing hard contact. Their hard-hit rate (29.2%), as calculated by Fangraphs, is 3rd-best in the league and their average exit velocity allowed (87.4 mph) is also the best.

To sum up:

• They’re striking out a ton of batters.
• They are walking very few.
• They don’t allow many home runs because they have the highest ground ball rate in the league.
• They are allowing the weakest contact.

This is what you want. You build a staff in order to generate all of these things, which leads to one overriding conclusion.

On the whole, the Phillies have been unlucky.

As a team, the staff has allowed a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .359. Folks, that is insanely high and far and away the worst in baseball, a full 32 points higher than the next-closest team (Houston’s .327). BABIP numbers that high never sustain themselves over the course of a full season. Last year, the Phils’ BABIP was 6th-highest, but only sat at .299.

It’s going to come down.

But one issue that may not correct itself to as large a degree is the defense. Over the first three weeks, the staff has been undone by the worst glove work in baseball.

Their -15 Defensive Runs Saved is dead last and their -6 Outs Above Average is tied for 3rd-worst. They’ve committed 14 errors, 4th-most in MLB. Turner was given a rough error that led to the Cubs’ second run on Wednesday night, but over the last two weeks, we’ve seen the Phils’ defense give away too many outs. This is not a strong defensive team by nature, but early on, they’re making life more difficult than usual for their pitchers.

Now, there’s no sugarcoating Luzardo’s performance on Wednesday night. He gave up a ton of hits and allowed a ton of runs, but his average exit velocity allowed was only 86.9 mph, and he generated a 45.5% ground ball rate against the Cubs. Many of the hits were bleeding grounders and bloopers, although to be fair, the Cubs did square some balls up on him in the 3rd and 5th innings. And there are other issues to be concerned about with him.

Luzardo has long had struggles pitching from the stretch (9.22 career ERA with runners on base), and that problem has only been exacerbated in 2026 (24.55 ERA), and there are other issues, too.

Some concerning Jesús Luzardo stats:

1. Opponents are hitting .467 with an OPS over 1.300 when they swing first pitch against Luzardo

2. His fastball is getting smoked right now. The average against his four-seamer is .348 and against his sinker it’s .375.

3. He’s falling…

— Jack Fritz (@JackFritzWIP) April 16, 2026

The good news is Luzardo struggled in a similar fashion last season when the Phillies believed he was tipping his pitches, and they fixed it. While that doesn’t appear to be the problem now, Caleb Cotham is one of the best pitching coaches in baseball, and these feel like fixable issues.

As for the rest of the staff, the “back-of-the-baseball-card” numbers should revert to the mean as long as the rest of the underlying data doesn’t change much. The staff has actually been pitching really well, but hasn’t had much to show for it through the first 18 games.

Check out the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, where Justin Klugh and I discussed this and recapped the Phils’ series against the Cubs and their rough start to the season. Powered by WHYY.

The Diamondbacks may have got Merrill Kelly back while in Baltimore. But Arizona still currently have a full dozen players on the injured list. They are evenly split between hitters and pitchers, but two-third of them are on the extended 60-day injured list. With an off-day today, I thought it was a good opportunity to go through the list, and see what the status is of each wounded snake.

Corbin Burnes (IL-60)

It was June 1st 2025 that Burnes threw his last pitch for the D-backs, Tommy John surgery following shortly thereafter. His rehab progress has been steady, though there was never an expectation he would be back in less than a year. The last update from the team had Burnes throwing a twenty-pitch bullpen session on the last day of March. It’ll be a process, Burnes gradually mixing in pitches other than fastballs, and also seeking to build his stamina back up. He could be a valuable addition in the second half, though Jack suggests caution. As Jack does. 🙂 Expected return: All-Star break.

Jordan Lawlar (IL-60)

Probably the most unfortunate injury of the year, Lawlar was hit by a pitch from Atlanta’s Osvaldo Bido, in the same game where he hit his first major-league home-run. While initial X-rays were negative, further examination revealed a fractured wrist, meaning he will be out for 6-8 weeks. Jordan had started off 6-for-18, and had acquitted himself well as an outfielder too. Lawlar seemed to have turned the corner after his rough early time in the bigs, so hopefully he’ll be able to sustain the momentum when he returns. Expected return: late May.

Lourdes Gurriel (IL-10)

The initial expectation was that Gurriell would miss 9-10 months after surgery last September to repair his torn ACL. However, he has speed-run the healing process: indeed, he wanted to be part of the Opening Day roster. Wiser heads prevailed there, but he is now on a rehab assignment with the Double-A Amarillo Sod Poodles. We’ll see how long it takes from there. The maximum length of an assignment like that is twenty days, but I’d not be surprised to see Gurriell back sooner. However, he will probably be DHing initially for the D-backs. Expected return: end of April.

Tyler Locklear (IL-10)

After coming over from the Mariners at the deadline, Locklear hit the IL on September 8, following an unfortunate collision at first base with base runner Connor Wong of Boston. At that time, it was just described as elbow inflammation, but things were apparently worse than originally expected. He ended up having surgery on both shoulder and elbow in early October. There hasn’t been any updates – good or bad – since the beginning of spring training, but his total absence from the preseason would indicated he’s still certainly some way off. Expected return: late May.

Justin Martinez (IL-60)

Not long after ace starting pitcher Burnes had Tommy John in June, we got the news that ace closer Martinez would need more or less the same procedure. He started playing catch in January, but does seem to be a little behind Burnes in his rehab progress. Just before Opening Day, he was still throwing on flat ground, rather than off a mound. That it’s Martinez’s second Tommy John, having previously had the procedure in 2021, may be a factor in him taking additional time to come back. Expected return: late August.

Cristian Mena (IL-60)

Mena has been plagued by issues the past couple of year. In 2024, he was shutdown with a forearm strain at the end of July. The following year, he was done after the first week in June, injuring his right teres major – or “shoulder muscle” as we laymen call it – during the rainy debacle in Cincinnati. It was hoped he would be healthy by spring. But, instead, he was shut down in late February, after suffering more discomfort in the same area. Come the end of spring, he was put back on the 60-day IL, and there has been nothing since. Expected return: no date.

Gabriel Moreno (IL-10)

Since coming to Arizona, Moreno has averaged only 97 games per season. It was just 83 last year, due to a fracture in his right index finger. While the current strained left oblique, incurred on a throw down to second base, isn’t a major injury, it continues an unfortunate trend. As we’ve seen with other players, obliques are potentially tricky things. If Moreno rushes back, it could backfire. So I’ve a feeling he is going to be out for a bit more than the minimum ten days. Expected return: end of April.

A.J. Puk (IL-60)

There’s a couple of reasons Puk will be back before his fellow elbow surgery victims. His injury happened earlier in 2025: he threw his last pitch almost exactly one year ago, on April 17. But his procedure was also different: an internal brace, which is more repair than reconstruction. That has a shorter rehab time, although like Martinez, it is also Puk’s second go around. He previously had Tommy John surgery in April 2018. A.J. has been throwing bullpens, and obviously, stamina will be less a concern than for Burnes. Expected return: mid-June.

Andrew Saalfrank (IL-60)

It appears the baseball gods have not finished punishing Saalfrank. While he had a successful return after serving a gambling suspension, his pitch velocity was well down on previous figures. He pushed through shoulder soreness, but the issue did not resolve itself over the winter. Surgery to clean out the shoulder proved necessary, and that took place in February. It turned out to be the first in a series of dominoes, which ended in the 2026 D-backs bullpen being free from lefties. Expected return: 2027, if there is even a season.

Carlos Santana (IL-10)

I’ve a feeling the oldest active position player in the majors won’t be hurried back. It is only the veteran’s second IL spell since 2014: he missed time in 2022 with ankle bursitis. But when Santana went on the injured list with a right adductor strain, he had gone just 2-for-24 through his first eight games. Ildemaro Vargas and Jose Fernandez have done considerably better than that in Santana’s absence. If that continues, there is a non-zero (though small) chance the team could decide simply to cut bait when Carlos is healthy. Expected return: early May.

Pavin Smith (IL-60)

Smith’s elbow had been a source of bother throughout spring training. He was a late scratch on Opening Day in LA, and though he played in the rest of the first series, the issue lingered. A cortisone shot and rest didn’t fix things, and it was announced on Tuesday that he would have surgery to clear out “loose bodies” in his left elbow. This typically has a recovery time of 6-8 weeks, explaining why the team was able to free up a roster spot for Aramis Garcia by moving Pavin to the 60-day IL. Expected return: mid-June.

Blake Walston (IL-60)

Remember him? He made seven appearances for the team back in 2024. But Walston then had Tommy John surgery in March the following year. On that basis, you’d expect him to be nearing the end of his rehab. However, he got dropped back on the 60-day IL at the start of the season, so is clearly going to miss at least another two months. Unlike everyone else on the list, I was unable to source any updates on Walston’s progress, or lack thereof. I’d be expecting reports of bullpens by now. Still, until proven otherwise, I’m going to assume that no news is good news. Expected return: mid-June.

EDITOR’S NOTE: An earlier version of this article ran here at BCB last October. This one has updated giveaway numbers and some information about Cubs gate giveaways from 2026.

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I’ve written on this topic previously, but now I’ve got some new information that I wanted to pass along to you.

As you know if you attend Cubs games when there are promotional gate giveaways, the team limits those to the first 10,000 (or “up to” that number, as they generally say) who come to the gates. This has led to many disappointed fans who, for whatever reason, want the giveaway but can’t get to Wrigley Field early enough. In some cases this has produced very long lines to get into the ballpark and some trouble at some gates.

This year, there have already been some criticisms and issues with gate giveaways.

First, the magnet schedule giveaway is generally one of the most popular every year. For most years before 2026, the team gave away 30,000 of these — sometimes each day for the entire opening series. This year? Only 10,000 magnet schedules, and only on Opening Day.

This led to a lot of unhappy fans, as attendance on Opening Day was 39,712. This led to some of these being sold on eBay for as much as $25. This year’s magnet schedule did not have a sponsor — perhaps if the Cubs got a sponsor for that, they could have given away 30,000 of them. I can tell you that a lot of people I know were very disappointed.

There were also issues with two of the early season gate giveaways. One, a “puffer vest” with the Cubs 150th anniversary logo, was actually quite nice — but I heard from quite a few people that the zippers broke easily. I got lucky and got one with a working zipper, but… seems to me the Cubs could have ordered a higher-quality product. This one did have a sponsor (Southwest Airlines) so… how much more could that have cost to get good working zippers?

Last Saturday, a Ben Zobrist bobblehead was given away and the one I got was broken. Fortunately, the Cubs hold back some extras in case this happens and they replaced the one I received. I have seen Cubs staffers toss around the cartons the bobbleheads are shipped in, perhaps breaking some in the process. They really should be more careful with these things.

Overall, though, the biggest issue is having only 10,000 gate giveaway items when the team generally averages over 37,000 fans per game.

This is not the way many other teams do giveaways. I have numbers for you! On Wednesday, I went through the websites of all 29 other teams to see what their policies were for gate giveaways. Many teams, including the Cubs, now have other giveaways that you have to buy a special ticket for, and those are more limited in number. These numbers are only for gate giveaways that are open to all without a special ticket.

Dodgers: 40,000 (except two Shohei Ohtani giveaways that are listed for 54,000 fans)
Padres: 40,000
Angels: 25,000
Brewers: 25,000 (some 10,000)
Giants: 25,000 (some 15,000 or 20,000)
Diamondbacks: 25,000 (some 15,000 or 20,000)
Mariners: 20,000 (some 10,000 or 15,000)
Nationals: 20,000
Orioles: 20,000
Royals: 20,000 (some 10,000 or 15,000)
Pirates: 20,000 (some “all fans”)
Yankees: 18,000
Mets: 18,000 (some 15,000)
Guardians: 15,000
Cardinals: 15,000
Blue Jays: 15,000
Braves: 15,000
Rockies: 15,000
White Sox: 15,000
Twins: 10,000
Rangers: 10,000
Astros: 10,000
Marlins: 10,000
Rays: 10,000
Red Sox: 7,500

Four teams did not post specific numbers.

Phillies: “all fans”
Tigers: “limited quantities”
Athletics: “while supplies last”
Reds: “while supplies last”

The number that sticks out the most to me in the list above is from the Dodgers. The Dodgers, who lead MLB in attendance every year. The Dodgers, who averaged 49,537 per date in 2025, have 40,000 of every giveaway item, which means that pretty much everyone who wants one would get one.

As noted above, Ohtani items basically go to everyone:

It should be noted that for some of the teams that have smaller numbers, those come close to matching their average attendance. For example, the Orioles have 20,000 giveaway items, their average attendance so far this year 21,362. The Royals, at 20,000 items, are above this year’s attendance average to date of 16,893. Clearly, for teams like this, promotional giveaways might actually draw larger crowds and bump up their averages. That’s not the case for the Cubs, who played to 89.5 percent of capacity in 2025 and who have most of their bobblehead giveaways — the most popular ones — on Saturdays when they’re likely close to sold out anyway. This year, for nine home dates, the Cubs have averaged 32,755, with quite a number of home dates played in very cold weather. That number will almost certainly go up.

The Marlins increased their giveaway item number from 8,000 to 10,000 this year, and so far this year they have averaged 11,713 for 10 home dates. Some other teams giving away more items this year: Giants (from 15,000 to 25,000), Mets (from 15,000 to 18,000, perhaps to match their crosstown rival Yankees) and Mariners (from 15,000 to 20,000).

The only teams that draw well and have as few or fewer giveaway items than the Cubs are the Astros (10,000 giveaways, 33,677 average in 2025) and Red Sox (7,500 giveaways, 34,278 average in 2025).

But most teams have enough for a large percentage of their fans to get popular giveaway items without having to rush to get to the ballpark early, or be disappointed if they can’t. As the Cubs surely know, many fans come to Wrigley from all over the Midwest — should they have to get up at 4 a.m. to drive to Chicago from Iowa just to get a bobblehead?

Occasionally at Wrigley Field, popular gate giveaways draw huge numbers of fans arriving early, creating potential crowd control issues. There’s another popular bobblehead this weekend (Ron Santo) and on Sat., May 24, likely the most popular gate giveaway item of the season, a Ryne Sandberg bobblehead.

Yes, I know the argument — teams want fans in the park early to consume more food and drink. At the same time, enough teams have enough giveaway items for fans that maybe this shouldn’t matter. As noted above, the Cubs (along with almost all other teams) have reduced the number of gate giveaways anyway in recent years, shifting over to the “special ticket” items that have proven to be popular.

The Cubs really should increase the number of gate giveaway items to at least 15,000, or hey, why not match the mighty Yankees at 18,000? Or perhaps to half of the 40,000 the Dodgers give, to 20,000? That would leave far fewer dissatisfied Cubs fans, and there shouldn’t be any additional cost to the team, since the items generally have a sponsor who pays for them. (The Ben Zobrist bobblehead, for example, had Jewel/Osco as its sponsor.)

Get it done, Cubs.