Forget the results, if you can. Losing two games in a row is a rounding error for a baseball team in every other month, but in October, it’s definitive. Win and you’re good. Lose and you’re bad. In this telling, the Red Sox rapidly lost to the Yankees, ergo they’re bad. I disagree, and this felt different to me, at least through the first six innings of both games, when things were still close enough. I felt like it was the beginning of the next great era of baseball’s best rivalry.

Despite the result, I still think that.

Prior to this season — and maybe including it — I’ve felt that that the Red Sox/Yankees first-round playoff serieses haven’t been all that consequential or compelling, because the teams are so obviously limited. I mean sure, playoff baseball widens the aperture of what’s possible for good teams, but I thought neither team was likely to truly contend in 2021 or 2025, even with baseball’s chaotic-by-design playoff system. This year is different. While the AL competition was so soft, like it was for last year’s Patriots, both teams were plenty good enough to make the World Series, which is all you can ever ask.

The lack of Garrett Crochet and Aaron Judge left the series with a distinctly large cast of new main characters, personified by the starters, beloved Red Sox Nation blue-collar immigrant Payton Toll, despised Red Sox Nation white-collar emigrant elite Cam Schlittler and (sigh) Ben Rice. Central casting did its job for giving each fanbase its broadly-dreamt personification in a SP1, whether or not the personification has a representation in reality. we got what we wanted. The Yankees, with Rice and former MVP Cody Bellinger, got a little more, and their season continues.

But the broader question is: are we back? And not in a short-term sense? In the sense that the misery of the Yankees will return to the forefront of our minds on a daily basis? I hope so, because it’s so much better that way. I think we are, after a needed cooling off period, and not just for the fans but for the owners and the league. Sometimes you need a moment alone. I live in suburban NY and they’ve hated the Astros since before COVID despite the multiple postseason matchups with the Sox, and I think older Red Sox and Yankees fans as a whole are happy for the interregnum on a broader horizon. Or maybe I’m just projecting, and it’s certainly something I have enjoyed. I’ve had a break, and I’m ready to hate again.

That is, there’s too much gold in these there hills to leave the rivalry comparatively dormant for so long. Not that you don’t want to beat each other, every game, but the feeling of something far beyond that. This feeling, like a sourdough starter, needs time to regenerate; if it ends up taking 25-30 years, whih seems like an eternity in the moment, it’s just sort of how it has gone on a longer time horizon. The last high point was 2003-2004, but before that it was Bucky Dent, in the fertile year of 1978. Before that, DiMaggio and Ted Williams in the pre- and post-war 1930s/40s era. Before that, 1918. So yeah. Every 25-30 years it happens. It doesn’t have to be that way, but it just is.

On that schedule, I suspect or just wish we’re due for a Retvrn to becoming the biggest story in baseball on a daily basis, and one that expands the reach of the game as effectively as Shohei Ohtani, who’s done a decade’s worth of heavy lifting. I am definitely wishcasting this toward existence, but I also think it’s a real possibility for the next 5-to-10 years given how committed both organizations have been to similar projects in the last decade. Now they get to shut down the Dodgers by any means necessary this offseason and return to the top of the heap, even if they have to threaten the game’s survival to do so. And you know what? They’ll fuckin do it. If the Sox and Yankees aren’t top of mind, it’s gotta be a structural problem, right? Right?

True or not, both teams are so close to accomplishing a renovation that puts them back the center of baseball dialogue that we can almost taste it. If I’m right, the good news is that this year’s loss, while a bummer, is still just an appetizer, and hopefully the last one. We’re ready for the main courses. The divisional and LCS rounds beckon, and the identities of the post-teardown squads will further solidify. But the picture is coming in to focus: Schlittler will win the Cy Young; Tolle has won over everyone else. In this particularly illustrative case, the NY/Boston coding, as least as we’d like to conceive of it, is perfectly balanced, as all things should be. I hope this particular infinity war is ready to flare back up.

It’s time for the Brewers’ 2026 playoff campaign to begin!

Anyone who wanted to see a second straight year with a testy intra-division NLDS matchup between the Brewers and Cubs had their hopes quickly dashed on Tuesday and Wednesday as the Padres, one of the hottest teams in baseball, utterly demoralized the North Siders with wins of 8-0 and 4-1. Neither game ever felt all that close.

Now, in their first series in the 2026 postseason, Milwaukee has to face off with the only team in baseball with a better winning percentage than them over the season’s last two months. Since August 1, both the Padres and Brewers won a league-best 35 games, but Milwaukee lost 18 while the Padres lost 17, giving San Diego the best record in the league in that span.

The Brewers also have some unwelcome memories against the Padres this season; in what was otherwise a magnificent regular season, the team’s low point (as well as this website’s comment section’s most anxious moment) came in the wake of a three-game sweep by the Padres in San Diego from August 10-12. Milwaukee held leads in the seventh inning or later in two of those three games, but the bullpen was unable to hold them, and after an 11-inning loss in the last game of that series with the Cubs mounting a serious charge for the division lead, it was a dark moment in an otherwise bright season.

Milwaukee, of course, recovered well — they won three of four against the Dodgers that weekend and played well down the stretch, and by the end of the season the thought that the Cubs were about to catch them felt ludicrous. But the Padres are one of the only teams that can say they had the upper hand over the Brewers this season — though in their other series this year, the Brewers took two out of three in Milwaukee early in the season.

Much of San Diego’s lineup comes in on a high note. Fernando Tatis Jr. was one of the league’s best players over the last two-plus months of the season; after not hitting a home run for the first two months of the season, he hit 25 from May 30 on, and he had a 1.012 OPS over the final 30 days of the season. Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Ty France also had OPS numbers of at least .895 over the last month of the season, even while the first two of those players had generally underwhelming full seasons. France was a bit of a revelation; he hit .295/.363/.502 this season (a 139 OPS+) in 500 plate appearances, the best offensive season of his career, after he’d barely been a replacement-level player from 2023-25.

Much of their newly discovered offensive firepower was on display against the Cubs. Bogaerts went 4-for-8 with a double and a homer. Manny Machado was 3-for-7 with a double and a homer. Merrill went 4-for-7. Tatis homered. Gavin Sheets, who missed almost all of September, hit a massive two-run pinch-hit homer on Wednesday; he’s now homered in two of his last three at-bats going back to the regular season. The full-season numbers suggest that the Padres were a decent but not outstanding offensive team but make no mistake: they’re as hot as anyone in the league right now.

On the other side of the ball, the biggest questions come in the form of the Padres’ starting rotation. Michael King, who was outstanding on Tuesday to the tune of seven one-hit, shutout innings, had a very good season and slots in nicely as their ace. But after that, things are sketchy. Nick Pivetta started Wednesday and held the Cubs to one run, but he was a bit shaky — he allowed three hits and two walks in 3 1/3 innings — and he only managed eight starts during the regular season. Randy Vásquez, who had a 3.90 ERA and 4.24 FIP in 140 2/3 innings, might start a game, but after that things are extremely sketchy. Walker Buehler was second on the team in innings pitched this season, but he wasn’t very effective (4.64 ERA, 4.51 FIP). Casey Mize and Robbie Ray should be filling this role, but both of them have been disastrous since coming over at the trade deadline: Mize, who is on the IL anyway with a sprained ankle, had an 8.72 ERA in five starts, and Ray had a 7.56 ERA in four.

The danger on this pitching staff is in the bullpen. Mason Miller was the game’s best reliever this season. He is one of the only players in the league who can rival Jacob Misiorowski’s fastball velocity, and he finished the season in Statcast’s 100th percentile in xERA, xBA, fastball velo, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage, with a 98th percentile finish in hard-hit percentage. With 129 strikeouts in 70 innings, Miller averaged 16.6 strikeouts per nine innings; that’s the fourth-highest K/9 rate ever for a player who threw at least 50 innings.

It’s not just Miller, though. Adrián Morejón, like Abner Uribe, is one of the best setup men in the league; he had a 2.37 FIP this season and offers a left-handed compliment to Miller. Yuki Matsui’s advanced numbers are sketchy, but he pitched to a 1.83 ERA in 64 innings this season. Young Bradgley Rodriguez is another flamethrower — he averages 98 mph on his fastball — and he was outstanding in 74 innings. David Morgan and Jhony Brito both had ERAs under 2.50 in September, and Jason Adam, who has had a sneaky great career, is back after missing essentially the entire second half of the season. He threw a perfect inning against the Cubs on Wednesday. Wandy Peralta is out there, too, finishing the season with a 3.61 ERA over 77 1/3 innings.

If the Brewers are going to win this series, they’re going to need to get ahead early in games, because if they find themselves needing to comeback against Rodriguez, Morejón, and Miller, they’re in big trouble. Home-field advantage should help, and the Brewers have been great down the stretch themselves. Several of their offensive players seem to be peaking at the right time, and there are no major health concerns that we haven’t known about for a long time. It will be a fascinating series.

Probable Pitchers

Note: the Brewers have announced Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1 and Logan Henderson in Game 2, but beyond that, neither team has announced anything. There will be a lot of conjecture here.

Game 1: Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 2.17 FIP) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (9-6, 4.63 ERA, 4.51 FIP)

It will be crucial that the Brewers win Game 1. With King and Pivetta unavailable due to the Wild Card series, the Brewers will have a massive starting pitcher advantage in the first game of the series. I’m not at all sure that Buehler will be the starter—he supposedly was going to be if the Cubs had forced a game three in the Wild Card round. Vásquez has been fine as a back-end starter this season, but he’s been about league average, and the Padres left him off of their roster in the Wild Card round and don’t seem to be factoring him into their plans. Ray could get this start if the Padres prefer the lefty matchup, but Ray has been abominable as a Padre and that’s a big leap of faith. Whoever starts, it will be a quick hook, in all likelihood.

Game 2: Sunday, October 4 at 3:00 p.m.: RHP Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA, 3.32 FIP) vs. RHP Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP)

King will almost surely throw in Game 2 after four days rest; his last two starts of the regular season both came on four days so there’s no reason why they’d stop doing that now. As noted above, King is the Padres’ best starter and their best bet to get deep into a game. He’s also the only Padre who has beaten the Brewers in Milwaukee this season; he went 5 2/3 innings and allowed just one run on May 13. He did not pitch in the series in San Diego.

Henderson, of course, is no slouch. The Brewer co-ace did lose in San Diego but he didn’t pitch badly — five hits, one walk, three earned runs and seven strikeouts in 6 1/3 innings on August 10. Two of those three runs came in the seventh inning when Merrill got him for a two-run homer; I would not expect Henderson to still be pitching in the seventh inning of this game no matter how well he’s been pitching before that. Remember, that game in San Diego was near the end of a 17-games-in-17-days stretch.

Game 3: Tuesday, October 6 at 8:30 p.m.: LHP Robert Gasser (5-5, 3.87 ERA, 4.24 FIP) vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 2.21 FIP)

Since the All-Star break, Gasser has made 12 starts. The Brewers are 10-2 in those games, and over 63 innings, he’s got a 2.86 ERA and 3.47 FIP. He has earned this start. Gasser doesn’t have major strikeout stuff and he’s a relatively soft tosser, but like Henderson, he’s managed to just avoid hard contact; he’s amongst the better pitchers in baseball in terms of average exit velocity. He throws five different pitches at least 10% of the time, with four of those in a nearly even split (the sweeper, four-seam fastball, sinker, and cutter are all thrown between 18 and 25 percent of the time), which keeps hitters off balance.

Pivetta, as mentioned above, is a good pitcher, but he was hurt for much of the season and he looked a bit shaky on Wednesday. This is another one in which you would expect a quick hook.

Game 4 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 7 at 9:00 p.m.: Bullpen vs. Bullpen

I don’t think we’re going to see anyone on three days rest in this series, so I expect to see dueling bullpens in this one. Maybe we’ll see Aaron Ashby as an opener, which was a common tactic last postseason, but the Cubs and Dodgers both had platoon disadvantages versus lefties, which isn’t really the case with the Padres; aside from Merrill, all their best hitters are right-handed. It feels like this will probably be Dustin May, which I don’t feel great about, but maybe the Brewers can get two or three scoreless innings from him before handing it over to Ashby or Chad Patrick.

Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 9 at 3:30 p.m.: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA, 2.17 FIP) vs. RHP Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA, 4.13 FIP)

The extra day off here would enable the Padres to bump King into a potential Game 5 on regular rest. Misiorowski would still have a major advantage as a starter, but the chance to throw King instead of whoever starts game one here is a definite boost for the Padres. Let’s hope the Brewers end this series in four or less, and we are instead thinking about Miz as the Game 1 starter in the NLCS!

How to watch and listen

Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 p.m: watch on FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network

Sunday, October 4 at 3:00 p.m: watch on FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network

Tuesday, October 6 at 8:30 p.m.: watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network

Wednesday, October 7 at 9:00 p.m. (if necessary): watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network

Friday, October 9 at 3:30 p.m. (if necessary): watch on FOX or FS1, listen on the Brewers Radio Network

Prediction

One could easily make the argument that based on the last two months, this is the “real World Series.” These are the two hottest teams in the league, and while the Padres weren’t nearly as good as Milwaukee in the first half, not much separates them at this point in the season. There’s star power on either side, with Tatis, King, and Miller for the Padres and Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio, and Misiorowski for the Brewers. There’s even an old enemy in the form of Machado — we’re going to hear some of the loudest booing we’ve ever heard at American Family Field when he steps to the plate on Saturday.

The teams are closely matched. I’d give the Brewers a slight advantage offensively — their lineup is a little bit deeper. The Brewers have a good bullpen, but that is San Diego’s greatest strength, and it could end up being a real factor this postseason. Milwaukee is a better defensive team, certainly, and they should have an advantage on the basepaths, as well. But the big separator here is in the rotation: I don’t trust anyone past King for San Diego, while I’d certainly prefer Henderson and probably Gasser to whoever the Padres will use as their number two.

Milwaukee has a major advantage on paper in game one, and I like Henderson against King at home in Game 2. San Diego will probably get one in San Diego — that place was rocking against the Cubs — but I think Milwaukee will steal one on the road to seal the series. Let’s say Brewers in four.

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The season is over, but daily links continue.

On to said links:

Phillies News:

You may not want an analysis of last night’s events, but here one is.

And one focusing on Aaron Nola.

And the Inquirer’s take. ($)

The best of Kruk (and friends) from the game 3 broadcast. ($)

MLB news

Arizona manager Torey Lovullo has signed an extension.

The rumored plans for a game at Grand Teton National Park will not come to pass.

The Division Series, previewed.

Those who have seen a Jacob Misiorowski pitch up close tell the tale.

Good morning, Camden Chatters.

Round 1 of the Orioles-less 2026 postseason is in the books. With the Braves finishing off the Phillies in the sudden-death Game 3 of the Wild Card Series last night, the Division Series matchups are set. Because of MLB’s bizarre decision not to re-seed teams between rounds, the American League pits the teams with the two best records against each other — the Rays and Yankees — while the White Sox take on the Guardians in an AL Central battle. In the NL, the Padres will face the top-ranked Brewers, and the Braves head to L.A. to face the two-time defending champion Dodgers.

Who are you pulling for, Camden Chatters? I’d say there’s only one series where I have a clear favorite, which of course is rooting for the Rays to win (or more accurately, rooting for the Yankees to lose). I have no strong feelings either way about the Guardians and White Sox, but I guess I’d lean toward Cleveland since it’s been nearly 80 years since their last World Series win.

As for the National League, I’d be happy for either the Brewers or the Padres — two teams who have never won a World Series — to make it to the Fall Classic, and in a perfect world they wouldn’t have to face each other until the NLCS. But only one can even advance that far. Each team’s roster is sprinkled with former Orioles — Manny Machado and Austin Hays for San Diego; Joey Ortiz and DL Hall (and Gary Sánchez) for Milwaukee — so pick your favorite. Meanwhile, it’s hard to get excited about the Braves/Dodgers matchup. Hopefully, whoever wins that series will lose swiftly to either the Brewers or Padres in the Championship Series.

Including the Rays, there are three teams still alive in the postseason that have a chance to win their first World Series in franchise history. That would be a cool thing to witness, even if it’s a far cry from the enjoyment we’d get if the Orioles were involved. But because the baseball gods don’t want us to have any fun, I’m sure we’ll just end up with a Dodgers/Yankees World Series that will make everyone want to throw up.

Links

What do Orioles need to avoid a 3rd straight losing season in 2027? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com

Well, my preferred answer — fire Mike Elias — apparently isn’t happening, so your guess is as good as mine.

Rubbing Some Dirt on It Isn’t Working for the Orioles – FanGraphs

Davy Andrews revisits Craig Albernaz’s criticism of Samuel Basallo for not playing through pain, and points to Gunnar Henderson as an example of why that’s a misguided thing to say. If you can even imagine Craig Albernaz saying something misguided!

How Orioles can clean up defense – School of Roch

Well, my preferred answer — blow up the roster and replace everyone with better players — apparently isn’t happening, so your guess is as good as mine.

Orioles birthdays and history

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Three former Orioles were born on this day: outfielder Aaron Hicks (37), infielder José Morban (47), and right-hander Victor Santos (50).

On this date in 2012, Chris Davis tied an Orioles record by homering in his sixth consecutive game, providing the only offense in a 1-0 victory over the Rays. The O’s won despite the Rays’ James Shields throwing a complete game two-hitter with 15 strikeouts, as Miguel González and three Birds relievers kept Tampa Bay off the board.

In 2016, the Orioles clinched a playoff spot on the last day of the season by beating the Yankees, 5-2, in New York. Matt Wieters crushed two home runs in what turned out to be his final regular-season game as an Oriole. Kevin Gausman worked 7.1 strong innings, and Zack Britton got the last five outs to punch the Birds’ ticket to October, sending them to Toronto for the Wild Card Game. I forget what happened after that.

The O’s have also played four postseason games on Oct. 2, three of them victories. In 1996, they beat Cleveland, 7-4, to take a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five Division Series. The O’s stormed out to a 4-0 advantage by the fifth thanks to a Brady Anderson homer and RBI hits by Hall of Famers Cal Ripken and Eddie Murray, before Cleveland rallied to tie it up. The Orioles broke the deadlock with a three-run eighth inning that featured a fielder’s choice error, an Anderson sac fly, and an RBI single by another Hall of Famer, Roberto Alomar. A crowd of 48,970 was on hand for the festivities at Camden Yards.

In 1997, the Orioles again took a 2-0 lead in the Division Series, this time against Seattle, with their second consecutive 9-3 victory. Anderson homered and drove in three, Harold Baines hit a dinger, and Alomar and Mike Bordick each drove in two runs. That supported a strong effort by starter Scott Erickson, who held a powerful Mariners lineup to three runs in 6.2 innings.

And in 2014, the O’s opened the Division Series with a 12-3 shellacking of the Tigers at Camden Yards. Facing the first of Detroit’s three Cy Young-winning starters, Max Scherzer, the Orioles pounded him for five runs, including homers by Nelson Cruz and J.J. Hardy. Five different O’s batters had multi-hit games and seven drove in at least one run. This was a tense, 4-3 game until the bottom of the eighth, when the O’s exploded for an eight-run inning and sent 12 batters to the plate.

For a very few, the season is not yet over. The Arizona Fall League (AFL) beckons, and the invitations given often present signs of where a player stands in an organization and provide an opportunity for a player to redefine that path. Once seen, not so long ago, as a finishing school for top MiLB prospects, more recent versions have taken on a different cast. The league opens play tomorrow (Oct 3) and runs through mid-November. The Cardinal’s prospects will play for Peoria, teamed with players from the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres, and Seattle Mariners.

Over recent years, the players invited have tended younger, no longer right on the cusp of MLB. And the reasons for their assignment vary. Some of the more common scenarios that lead to a player being sent to the AFL:

• Players who have lost in-season time due to injury, are healthy now and will use the AFL to accumulate innings or plate appearances;
• Players who have been in the organization long enough that they will be requiring a 40-man roster spot this fall and the team is not 100% sure where they want to go with said player;
• Players who have interesting tools but haven’t quite developed enough to advance them beyond their level. Often, these players are facing a roster crunch at the next level, and the team needs another look to map out where they project this player.

So, who is all going for the Cardinals? And what is their story. Let’s look.

With slightly less fanfare, that initial post was followed yesterday by:

Tai Peete, CF, AA, Age 21

Tai Peete was acquired from Seattle last off-season in the Brendan Donovan trade. One of the more mercurial prospects in the Cardinal prospect pipeline, Tai carries a 60-grade FV (from Baseball America) with an Extreme risk rating. BA really likes him, ranking him #10. MLB.com has him #17 and Fangraphs at #21. Quite the range.

He is a player still adjusting to a position change (moving from the dirt to CF) but is viewed as above-average out there already. Tai really only played half a season this year, mostly due to injury, across the High-A and AA levels. Even in the crazy offensive environment of the lower minors, he was 16% above average (wRC+ 116). Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Ability to make more contact will define his level of success. For him, the AFL offers the opportunity to round out his playing time.

Sammy Hernandez, C, High-A, Age 22

Sammy Hernandez was acquired from Toronto (for Genesis Cabrera) in the midst of the 2023 season, so it seems like he has been in the system forever. A development project if there ever was one, he has bounced between Low-A (Palm Beach) and High-A (Peoria) for 3 different seasons now. This season was his best and could be considered a least a bit of an offensive break out. His 17% walk rate suggests he is overcoming major plate discipline and swing decision issues that plagued him earlier. The 18% K rate probably confirms that. Carrying a wRC+ of 140 and lots of other gaudy statistics begins to make this look like an offense-first Catcher in the mold of Ivan Herrera. Sammy falls into category#2. He is rule V eligible this winter for both the MLB and MiLB versions of the Rule V draft (not sure if either will happen). His age works in his favor. His presence in the Cardinal system, seemingly deep with catching prospects, does not. If there is a Rule V draft, he will be eligible for the minor league portion, and some smart team likely takes him. I’d put Anaheim at the top of that list. By and large unranked (in a class of ~53 prospects by FG) by prospect evaluators, the AFL assignment lets the club get one more look at him against what portends to be a bit stiffer competition than High-A. Intriguing.

Cade McGee, Util, AA, Age 23

Cade was a 9th round draft pick in the 2024 draft, so he hasn’t been around all that long, so he doesn’t fit the profile of a player needing a 40-man roster spot this winter. He didn’t get 100 games in this year, so they may well be looking at extending his season to get reps in. I listed him as Util because of the distribution of games played by position: C – 24, 2B – 22, 3B – 18, 1B – 18, DH – 14. Versatility is good, but it limits the reps at any one position, and I suspect the AFL may help fill that gap. I note that since moving to Springfield, he has been confined to 3B and 2B. The hit tool looks OK, not much power (not enough for CIF anyway) but still a wRC+ of 115 across two levels. A very late in the season promotion to Springfield (AA) along with this AFL assignment suggest they may be pushing him a bit.

Brandon Clarke, SP, AA, Age 23

Clarke was acquired in the Sonny Gray trade, which appears to have worked out really well for all sides. He is a 2024 draftee, so there are no Rule V considerations here. His season didn’t start until June after off-season arm surgery to address circulation issues, so he fits the AFL assignment category#1 neatly. Brandon fits anywhere between #5 and #16 on the Cardinals prospect list, depending on which pub you go by. BA is least optimistic on him yet grades his FB at 60 and his slider at 70 (not a grade they hand out often). Note: FG rates that slider at 80. Injury and command issues are his stalking issues. Clarke started his season at High-A, finished pitching at AA and went to the Development List just before season’s end, ostensibly to prepare for the AFL. While the AFL isn’t deep enough to be considered a finishing school, it could well be a launch pad for a pitcher like this.

Authors note: I wrote this brief before it was announced that Clarke would undergo minor surgery and not be able to participate in AFL games. I left it in, obviously.

Tekoah Roby, SP, AAA, Age 25

Roby was acquired from Texas in a multi-player deal that saw Stratton and Montgomery go to Texas and Roby, Saggese, King and International Bonus Cash coming to StL. Not a bad return. Prospect rankings on Roby are very tight, ranging from #12 to #14. All of those are certainly discounted due to injury (and recovery concerns). After ascending to AAA in 2025, Roby got hurt and spent the remainder of 2025 and 2026 recovering and rehabbing. He has been pitching for some time on the backfields at Jupiter, facing hitters. The AFL will allow him to get into game action for the first time and likely sets the stage for a return to AAA next year after a normal off-season. So, he is most definitely AFL assignment category#1. He will look to collect innings, work off rust and the typical command issues that come early in the TJ rehab cycle. Proving health will be key as availability has been his biggest liability up to now.

BA scouting grades (pre-injury) say it all: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55

Nate Dohm, SP/RP, AA, Age 23

Dohm was acquired last year from New York in the Ryan Helsley trade. While his current level shows AA, that was a very late season promotion resulting in only one game at the AA level. The rest of the season was spent at High-A Peoria. Nate finished the season on the Development, like Clarke, ostensibly to prepare for the AFL. Nate apears on the FG prospect lists at 34. BA and MLB.com agree, as they do not have them in their Top-30 list. Dohm overall is a 35+ FV, with a 60 grade FB, 50 grade slider and 50 grade command. He is not Rule V eligible this off-season, so he is not AFL assignment category#2 for sure. He got in 25 games, 13 starts and 12 relief appearances for 61 IP, so he ended up a little short on workload, which I imagine they wanted closer to 90 or 100 IP. I suspect the Development Team wants to accumulate more IP but also likely he will workshop some new pitching tools.

Michael Watson, RP, AA, Age 24

Watson came to the Cardinals in 2024 as an unrestricted free agent out of indy ball. He is unranked as a prospect, even on FG’s 53 deep list. He repeated AA this past season after a fairly successful 2025 season across High-A and AA. He is a lefty who is adept at missing bats with a side-arm, mid-tier FB, but lacks command, running a K-BB% at less than 15. His ERA- and FIP- run just slightly better than average for the league he was in. I’d place him in the tweener category — a guy who needs more than the 52.2 IP he got but also needs to show a little more if he wants to make the AAA roster next spring. So, more category#3.

Frank Ellisalt, SP/RP, High-A, Age 24

Ellisalt also came to the Cardinals with Dohm (and Jesus Baez) in the Helsley trade last year. He carries a #47 ranking on the FG prospects list and does not appear on shorter lists. He sports a FB and slider combo both graded at 60 (interesting!), but very poor command. He is not Rule V eligible until next year. Injury derailed his 2026 season and, like Roby, the AFL offers the opportunity to get some competitive pitches in before everyone goes home for the winter. Category#1 on this pitcher. It is good to see he has health back.

Towards the end of November, I’ll provide an update on how these guys did.

Joseph King, RP, AA, Age 25

King was a ninth-round draft pick back in 2022. He has been on the edges of the lengthier FG prospects list and not on anyone else’s top 30. He sports a good FB and power change but struggles with command. This was the first season his BB rate was decent (9.6%), allowing his excellent K rate (30% +) to play. Injuries have played a part, as well, appearing in only 34 games over the past three seasons. Rule V isn’t a concern with him, but making up missed innings is.

Nolan Sparks, RP/SP, AA, Age 24

Sparks was a thirteen-round draft pick in 2024. He does not appear on any prospect lists. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but he strikes out a lot of guys and walks a lot of guys, although this was his first full season. He pitched a few games after being drafted in 2024, pitched in 18 games in 2025 and carried a full load this past season, so catching up on innings doesn’t seem like a big concern. He isn’t eligible for Rule V, so that is not an issue. Since he wasn’t on the original roster, this may be more of a guy assigned to fill out the roster. He seemed to have a prominent role in the AA playoffs. Perhaps they find that 34% K rate at AA intriguing.

In other MiLB news

Also from the Cardinals today,

For those of you that watched, you may remember Curley pitched the game of his life against Springfield in the AA playoffs. He was a 2025 3rd round draft pick for the D-backs. Will likely start the 2027 season in the AA rotation right alongside old friend Daniel Eagan. He will slot in the prospect list at around 30-35. For comparison sake, he was #21 on Arizona’s prospect list. Cardinals end up with four Arizona pitching prospects this year. Martinez for Arenado, Eagen, Santana and Curley for Nootbaar. Not hard to notice yet another young pitcher that does not need 40-man protection.

Last but not least

In the fun category, I present this post.

Of the 24 players selected, 5 of them (5!) are Cardinal prospects. Baez, Gurevitch, Rodriguez, Little Baez and Ragsdale.

Free of charge for the discerning reader.

Happy birthday to Rafael Lopez, and a mighty host of others.

Today in baseball history, in 1966 – Sandy Koufax of the Los Angeles Dodgers wins his 27th game of the season and the final game of his career. Koufax’s 6-3 win over the Philadelphia Phillies clinches the National Leaguepennant for the Dodgers; 1974 – Future Hall of FamerAl Kaline announces his retirement. During a 22-year career with the Detroit Tigers, Kaline compiled 3,007 hits and 399 home runs. He also batted .379 in the 1968 World Series; 1983 – Carl Yastrzemski plays in his 3,308th and final game, hitting a single as the team’s left fielder. After the Red Sox’s 3-1 victory over Cleveland, “Yaz” takes one more “final lap” around Fenway Park and will stay to sign autographs on Yawkey Way for over an hour; and 2016 – Veteran broadcaster Vin Scully calls his final LA Dodgers game, a 7-1 loss in San Francisco, after a record 67 MLB seasons, and other stories as well.

Today in baseball history:

• 1908 – Addie Joss of the Cleveland Naps tosses a perfect game against the Chicago White Sox. The future Hall of Famer wins a 1-0 decision over Ed Walsh in one of the greatest pitching duels in major league history. Joss strikes out only three batters, while Walsh fans 15.
• 1919 – The Chicago White Sox lose the second game of the World Series, 4-2, to the Cincinnati Reds. Lefty Williams, one of eight Sox players involved in a Series-fixing scandal, walks three men in the 4th inning. After the game, he is confronted and attacked by Sox catcher Ray Schalk.
• 1921 – The Yankees close the season by beating the Red Sox, 7-6. Babe Ruth hits his 59th home run off Curt Fullerton.
• 1936 – The Yankees even the World Series and set a Series record for runs as they demolish the Giants, 18 – 4. Lefty Gomez coasts to a six-hit win, while every member of the Yankees lineup makes a hit and scores at least one run. Tony Lazzeri hits a grand slam, the first in World Series play since 1920.
• 1938 – Bob Fellerstrikes out 18 Detroit Tigers batters, setting a single-game record that will stand until Steve Carlton breaks it in 1969.
• 1947 – The Dodgers squeak out a 9-8 win over the Yankees, jumping on Bobo Newsom and Vic Raschi for six runs in the 2nd inning. Yogi Berra becomes the first player to hit a pinch home run in World Series history, belting one off Brooklyn’s Ralph Branca in the seventh inning.
• 1949 – Ted Williams loses the batting title as George Kell goes 2 for 3 in Detroit (.3429 to .3427).
• 1963 – Sandy Koufax of the Los Angeles Dodgers sets a World Series record by striking out 15 batters in Game 1 against the New York Yankees, beating the record set by Carl Erskine ten years ago on this day. The Dodgers win the game, 5-2, behind Koufax’ six-hit pitching.
• 1965 – Sandy Koufax‘s 2-1 win against the Braves clinches the National Leaguepennant for the Dodgers. With 13 strikeouts, Koufax ups his modern major league season record to 382. (Nolan Ryan will do Koufax one K better in 1973).
• 1968 – In one of the most memorable World Series performances ever, Bob Gibson of the St. Louis Cardinalsstrikes out 17 Detroit Tigers in Game 1 of the 1968 World Series. Gibson sets the World Series record for most strikeouts in a single game, set on this day in 1963 by Sandy Koufax, and leads the Cardinals to a 4-0 victory over Tigers ace and Cy Young Award winner Denny McLain.
• 1969 – Pete Rose, in the eighth inning of the Reds’ 8-3 win at Atlanta Stadium, clinches the National Leaguebatting title when he beats out a bunt to third base for a hit in his last at-bat of the season. The day starts with the Cincinnati right fielder tied with Pirates outfielder Roberto Clemente, who goes 3 for 4 against Montreal but finishes .005 of a point behind (.3447 to .3452) the eventual all-time hits leader.
• 1978 – Bucky Dent‘s unlikely home run helps the New York Yankees defeat the Boston Red Sox in a dramatic one-game playoff at Fenway Park. Trailing by two runs in the 7th inning, Dent smacks a three-run shot against pitcher Mike Torrez into the screen above the Green Monster. The Yankees hold on for a 5-4 victory en route to face the Royals in the ALCS and the Dodgers in the World Series. Following the 2010 season, a panel of experts at the MLB Network voted this game the 11th greatest game of the past fifty years.

Today in Cubs history:

• 1932 – The Yankees sweep the Cubs in the World Series. Tony Lazzeri hits two homers and Earle Combs adds another in the 13-6 laugher.
• 1984 – In a game played with replacement umpires, the Cubs clobber the Padres, 13-0, in Game 1 of the NLCS. Chicago hits five home runs at Wrigley Field, including one by winning pitcher Rick Sutcliffe.
• 2001 – Slugging Sammy Sosa becomes the first player in baseball history to slug 60 home runs in three seasons. The Cubs outfielder connects off Lance Davis in the first inning of the team’s 5-4 loss to Cincinnati at Wrigley Field to reach the milestone.
• 2012 – Seven years after being beaned on the first pitch he saw in his only career plate appearance, derailing a promising career, former Cub Adam Greenberg gets a chance to bat again in the major leagues. The Miami Marlins send him up to pinch-hit in the 6th inning against the Mets’R.A. Dickey. He strikes out on three pitches from the knuckleballer, but the crowd cheers wildly as his story of perseverance has made him a hero to many.
• 2018 – The Rockies defeat the Cubs, 2-1, in 13 innings in the Wild Card Game. After scoring off Jon Lester in the 1st, the Rockies’ bats go quiet, while the Cubs tie it with two outs in the eighth when Javier Baez doubles off Adam Ottavino, scoring pinch-runner Terrance Gore. However, the Cubs, whose bats have gone stone cold of late, waste a number of other chances. Tony Wolters, the Rockies’ third catcher of the game, drives in Trevor Story with a two-out single off Kyle Hendricks in the 13th for the go-ahead run, and Scott Oberg preserves the win as Colorado will continue its travels, moving to Milwaukee, WI for Game 1 of the NLDS, its fourth city in four games.
• 2020 – The National League Wild Card Series are complete as the Marlins eliminate the Cubs with a 2-0 win in Game 2 of the Third Series thanks to a homer by Garrett Cooper off Yu Darvish in the seventh that breaks a scoreless tie.

Cubs Birthdays:Rafael Lopez*, Matt Walbeck, Héctor Villanueva, Dave Beard, Bill Serena, Tom Angley, Scott Stratton.

Today in history:

• 1789 – George Washington transmits the proposed constitutional amendments, known as the United States Bill of Rights, to the states for ratification.
• 1866 – J. Osterhoudt patents the tin can with a key opener.
• 1919 – US President Woodrow Wilson has a stroke, leaving him partially paralyzed.
• 1925 – Josephine Baker first performs in Paris in La Revue Nègre at Théâtre des Champs-Élysées.
• 1950 – First strip of Charlie Brown, “Li’l Folks,” later “Peanuts,” by Charles M. Schulz is published in seven nationwide papers.
• 1967 – Thurgood Marshall is sworn in as the first Black Supreme Court Justice.
• 1977 – Austrian Ferrari driver Niki Lauda finishes fourth in the US Grand Prix East at Watkins Glen to clinch his second Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship, while Englishman James Hunt wins the race.
• 2002 – The Beltway sniper attacks begin, extending over three weeks.
• 2009 – “Stan Lee Day” declared by County of Los Angeles and the City of Long Beach.
• 2016 – Kim Kardashian is robbed at gunpoint of $10 million worth of jewelry in her hotel room in Paris.

*pictured.