Category: Sports News

In one of my first editions of the lab, I mentioned something I called “magical thinking.” I think the kids call it wishcasting but I’m not necessarily down on the lingo. The idea behind magical thinking is that the person practicing it thinks of the most positive result from a particular player or situation and assumes that to be not only possible, but likely.

Usually, this does not impact those inside organizations, but it can if the organizations are not mindful of the analytics. We see this more from the general public. There is no greater example than Yainer Diaz. People seem to think he should be a 30 home run guy and maybe even a .300 hitter. Unfortunately, there is not much to base this on in terms of actual performance. What we will do in this series in Spring Training is look at the Astros position by position and determine what is likely to happen based on some key numbers. Before we dive in, I thought we should review those numbers.

• Chase rate: This is the percentage of balls a player swings at outside of the zone. The league average normally lives between 30 and 32 percent, but we will be looking at three year intervals and we should notice trends more than where a player is in relationship to the league average.
• Hard hit percentage: This is simply the percentage of balls that a player hits hard. Hard hit balls become hits and extra base hits more often than softer contact. Typically 35 percent is around the league average in this category.
• BABIP: This is batting average on balls in play. Home runs are obviously excluded since they are not in play. The league average tends to hover around .300 but it will largely depend on hard hit percentages and breakdowns between groundballs, flyballs, and line drives.
• Contact percentage: This is the percentage of swings that turn into contact. Typically 70-75 percent is around league average.
• HR/FB percentage: This is the percentage of flyballs that result in home runs. Ten percent is typically around the league average.

Yainer Diaz

Expectations of 30 home run power are based on an unsustainable home run per flyball rate from 2023. He still has more power than most players, but we have to focus on what he does well. Diaz hits the ball more often than most players and he hits it harder than most players. That is what scouts would lovingly call the hit tool. So, if we were to expect any number to go up for Diaz it would probably be batting average. If hard hit ball rates and contact rates remain constant then he could very well hit as high as .280 with the current underlying numbers.

Of course, that brings us to the negative. Diaz probably chases more than any regular in the game. What’s more, that rate seems to be fairly constant over the three years. This is one of the reasons why plate discipline needs to be added as a sixth tool. Diaz can put the bat on the ball even when it is outside the zone, but that contact usually doesn’t result in extra base hits.

The chase rate will be a number I will track throughout the year because it will tell us whether the new hitting coaches can mute some of his aggressive tendencies. Balls in the zone are typically hit more often and hit harder than balls outside the zone. I don’t think Diaz would ever be a good disciplined hitter, but if we could elevate himself to even below average in that category (35-40 percent) then it could lead to more walks and to more pitches for him to hit in the zone.

Cesar Salazar

Remove the soft contact and Salazar is as close as you can get to an average major league hitter. His chase rate is fairly close to average. His BABIP is fairly close to average and his contact rates are fairly close to average. He simply does not hit the ball hard and does not have enough power. The good news is that the hard hit ball rate has steadily climbed in each pass through the big leagues. The bad news is that his next home run will be his first one.

Salazar is there because there is really no one else at this point. Of course, that could change this week or next as rumors are swirling about Christian Vazquez being signed to give the team a veteran option. Of course, that rumor has been circulating for weeks. In case it comes to fruition, we will list his numbers below as a comparison.

Christian Vazquez

One of the offshoots of magical thinking is what we might call “the Jeff Bagwell theory.” As Bagwell is fond of saying, players will produce the numbers that are on the back of the baseball card. The difficulty with this theory is that almost every player goes into rot late in their career. It happened to Bagwell himself in 2004 and 2005. it happened to Craig Biggio in his last couple of seasons. It is rare for a player to finish on top. So, magical thinking would look at the aggregate above and assume Vazquez will get back there. It is certainly possible. Rot is also possible for a catcher in his mid-thirties.

In particular, the hard hit percentage and home runs per flyball rates concern me. It shows a concerning reduction in power that could crater the overall numbers. A return to even the aggregate in hard hit percentage, BABIP, and even home runs per flyball rate make Vazquez a viable backup catcher. Continued rot in those categories do not.

What do you think are reasonable expectations for these players? Are you predicting a return to near all-star performance for Yainer Diaz or do you think we will see more of the same?

From an offensive perspective, three outcomes all but assure a miserable result in a plate appearance: a strikeout, pop-up, or double play ball on the ground. Devoid of function and aesthetic, all three demand failure by the batter as well as success by an opponent, but they are most commonly where I see and feel frustration while watching baseball. In contrast to the Three True Outcomes of walks, strikeouts, and homers, there is no mixed bag in this virtue-less trio. Like the chthonic goddesses of Greek yore, these three outcomes are my Baseball Furies (not to be confused with the other Baseball Furies).

In some ways, those at the helm of the sport share this sentiment. A well-earned strikeout is gorgeous, but a balance-less sport can be rote. The efforts to curb bullpen engorgement, along with several quality of life adjustments to the sport’s pace and baserunning seem to have at least slightly arrested MLB’s longstanding upward creep in strikeout rate. The 2025 season was MLB’s sixth 40,000 strikeout campaign, but it was also just the third campaign (besides 2021, following the shortened 2020 gauntlet) since 2005 – when the non-pitcher strikeout rate for hitters was 16.0% leaguewide – to see a drop in the league-average strikeout rate. You might’ve missed the parade, watching 22.2% of hitters whiff down from the full-season records of 22.6% and 22.7% in 2024 and 2023, but it’s progress. The how of this trend is not just legislative alterations, it’s hitters consciously altering their behavior, and players like Brendan Donovan seeing their skills creep into higher prioritization.

Donovan is anathema to the Baseball Furies, who will fittingly frame his lens today. It’s not enough to just make contact, or even just slap singles – if it were, Yuniesky Betancourt might’ve been a valuable big leaguer instead of an example of why every big league club now is at least some basic level of analytical in their assessment of the sport. Yes, Brendan Donovan strikes out sparingly, even for 30 years ago, with a minute 13.5% punch-out rate for his career, against a 9.1% walk rate and a healthy .282/.361/.411 line with a 119 wRC+. Just 12 other qualified hitters struck out less often (a sample of 145 hitters) last year. Self-selectingly, they are mostly solid players, though most qualifying hitters are, or else they’d likely not qualify. But it’s Donovan’s ability to do things like this, converting a well-located pitch in a two-strike count into a game-changing line drive, that not only shed strikeouts, but improve Seattle’s roster.

One Fury tamed, two more to go.

Unlike strikeouts, there’s no mighty furor over the trends in pop-ups within baseball. In 2025, players generated infield pop-ups on about 9.9% of their fly balls, per FanGraphs, within essentially the same 1-2% ebb and flow range it’s been since tracking data became uniform in 2002. Baseball Savant’s database on contact goes back to 2008 for pop-ups, with ‘25 yielding a whopping 8,818 pop-ups, or 1.2% or pitches, nearly identical to each other year in the sample, albeit a lessening trajectory down from a consistent 10,000+ from 2008-2011.

Should we mourn the dwindling pop fly? Unless you are in the pocket of Big Can of Corn, there’s little to lament. Pop-ups yielded a .012 Weighted On-Base Average last year, functionally no better than just striking out. Despite making contact at such a high clip and only putting the ball over the fence around a dozen times each year, Donovan’s propensity to avoid pointless pop-ups allows him to avoid empty ABs. Many of the most prodigious pop-uppers are high-contact players like Nolan Arenado, Jose Altuve, and… approximately half of the Milwaukee Brewers lineup last year. But like Donovan, their success comes from splashing enough other contact around the outfield grass to compensate for their fallow fly balls, or clubbing the ball with enough authority (like fellow pop-up producers Cal Raleigh and Kyle Schwarber) to make it worth the risk. For Donovan, his barrel control allows him to cover not just good off-speed below the zone, but heat above it.

That leaves us with just the final Fury, the twin killing terror. While her power is on wane, with 2025 featuring the fewest double plays grounded into since the league expanded to 30 clubs in 1998, Donovan should find this deity his ultimate challenge. Plenty of contact, commonly enough on the ground, and only mediocre foot speed for a big leaguer, it should be the recipe for a double play all day. Sure, Donovan has the benefit of the lefty batter’s box, and is not a true plodder, but Mariners fans are not so far removed from the bittersweetness of Ty France in this regard. And yet, a season ago, Donovan tied with eight others for the 10th-fewest GIDPs in baseball, doing so just four times all season. That tied him with, once again, Schwarber, a famous double play eschewer by the more blunt method of simply never hitting groundballs.

It’s no one-off, either. Since entering the league in 2022, through his combination of sprayed contact, high-effort, and, perhaps, intentional approach, Donovan has grounded into just 20 double plays. 20, in 2,006 plate appearances, tied for 18th-fewest in MLB since 2022 for hitters with at least 1,500 PAs, of which there are 179. To credit Donovan with his successes instead of merely the vices he avoids, since entering the league Donovan has a .307/.389/.451 line with runners on base – a 136 wRC+ that’s 27th out of 251 qualifiers (min. 500 PA) in 788 such plate appearances.

Like many – but not all – hitters, he’s better with runners on, but in Donovan’s case it is a noted improvement, a 136 wRC+ with runners on against a 109 wRC+ with the bases empty.

Herein lies the only conflict I see with Donovan’s fit in Seattle’s roster. The presumptive third baseman of plurality, if not majority, he’ll scuttle across the diamond as needed and provide cromulent glovework. On the heels of Jorge Polanco, blessed may he be, a defensive upgrade is the easiest and least pertinent bar, but it will be noticed. But most projections for Donovan’s fit have placed him as the leadoff hitter in the M’s lineup. He’d be just fine there, and lineup construction is a bit of a cascading impossibility to isolate. His rhyming traits with Josh Naylor create a funny lean for Seattle’s roster, but one to be categorized in the realm of “good problem to have.” Whether Donovan is leading off or cleaning up, he’s well-suited to be the one creating fury for opponents yet again.

Here are the managers and coaching staffs for the Cubs minor league affiliates: Iowa Cubs, Knoxville Smokies, South Bend Cubs, Myrtle Beach Pelicans, the Arizona Complex League Cubs and the team in the Dominican Summer League. Many of these you will recognize from previous years.

The managers are detailed below. The full coaching staffs follow.

Marty Pevey returns as manager of the Iowa Cubs for the 14th consecutive season, extending his franchise-record tenure while his 822 victories are also a franchise mark. Entering his 18th season in the organization, he has over 30 years of professional experience, beginning with 13 seasons as a player. All told, Pevey owns a 1,466-1,511 minor league managerial record and his 1,466 victories are fifth-most among active minor league skippers through 2025.

Lance Rymel enters his third season as manager of the Knoxville (previously Tennessee) Smokies following two seasons at the helm in South Bend. He guided the 2025 Smokies to a 69-67 record. This will be his 11th season as a coach or manager in the Cubs organization, where he also managed Single-A Eugene in 2019 and the Cubs Dominican Summer League squad in 2017-18.

Daniel Wasinger enters his first season as manager of the South Bend Cubs, after serving as South Bend’s Bench Coach in 2025. He began his coaching career in 2024, joining the Cubs organization as a Development Coach with the Myrtle Beach.

Yovanny Cuevas enters his second season as manager for the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, following three years coaching within the Cubs system. He previously served as the hitting coach for the ACL Mesa Cubs (2024) and the Dominican Summer League Cubs (2023) and as the hitting fellow of the Rookie League Cubs (2022).

Dixon Machado enters his first season as manager of the Arizona Complex League Mesa Cubs, after playing with the Iowa Cubs in 2025. Machado played 14 minor league seasons with the Tigers, Cubs, Giants and Astros farm systems from 2010-19 and 2022-25 and two seasons in the KBO from 2020-21.

Enrique Wilson is in his ninth season with the Cubs Dominican Summer League club and his fifth as a manager after serving as a hitting coach. He had a nine-year major league playing career with Cleveland (1997-2000), Pittsburgh (2000-01), the Yankees (2001-04) and the Cubs (2005).

Jovanny Rosario is in his second stint as manager of the Cubs Dominican Summer League team after holding the position in 2021 and his 11th year coaching in the Cubs system. Following his time in the DSL in 2021, he served as the bench coach for Myrtle Beach in 2022, coached in the Arizona Complex League in 2023 and returned to the Dominican Summer League as a coach from 2024-25.

TAMPA — The MLB Players Association may not have an official leader at the moment, but the players are doubling down on the strength of the union.

Austin Wells, the Yankees player rep, held a meeting with his teammates Wednesday morning to deliver that message and address the fallout of the sudden resignation Tuesday by executive director Tony Clark, which came at a critical time with a labor battle looming next offseason.

“It’s a message of strength,” Wells said Wednesday at Steinbrenner Field. “We’re just as strong as we were Friday versus today.

“I think we have a lot of confidence in our executive subcommittee, who did a great job handling all this. They were very informative [Tuesday] in the meeting that we had. [They] explained what was happening to us, and they did a great job handling it. It’s not an easy situation. So on the players’ side of things, we have a lot of confidence in that.”

Wells was on a call Tuesday with all 30 player reps and the executive subcommittee, in which they opted not to vote on an immediate replacement for Clark, who stepped down in the wake of an internal investigation that found he had an inappropriate relationship with his sister-in-law, who was hired by the MLBPA in 2023.

The expectation was that there would be another call later Wednesday after player reps had a chance to talk through things with their respective teams, with the potential to elect an interim leader then.

“[Clark’s resignation] came as a little bit of a surprise,” Wells said. “It’s unfortunate but I think we’re moving in a good direction.”

Wells had been an alternate rep the last two seasons while reliever Scott Effross served as the Yankees’ player rep. But with Effross now in the Tigers organization, after the Yankees non-tendered him in November, Wells stepped into the main role at an interesting time.

“It’s an exciting opportunity, especially this year, coming into probably the biggest negotiation we’re going to have, at least in my short career,” Wells said. “I’m looking forward to that opportunity and just being able to help represent our team.

“We have a ton of guys with experience in here, which has helped a lot.”


Gerrit Cole, for example, was previously on the executive subcommittee, a tenure that coincided with the lockout during the 2021-22 offseason. There is a growing fear around the game that another, potentially lengthier, lockout is coming next winter when the current CBA expires on Dec. 1.

“We don’t want that,” Wells said. “We hope we can get a deal done to have a normal season next year, but we’re prepared to do what we have to.”

The Angels began spring training last week at Diablo Stadium in Tempe, Ariz., with a new manager in Kurt Suzuki and plenty of new faces to go with some familiar ones like veteran Mike Trout. The Angels, who open the season March 26 against the Astros in Houston, have not had a winning season since 2015 and last made the postseason in 2014.

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This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

Action is starting to pick up in spring camp as the beginning of Grapefruit League play looms ahead this weekend. The Tigers will kick off their 2026 spring schedule on Saturday at 1:05 p.m. ET on the road against the Yankees. Then they’ll welcome in the Orioles and the Twins on Sunday and Monday at home, also set for 1:05 p.m. ET start times.

On Wednesday morning, the tentative pitching plan for the first three games was reported by Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic Detroit. Keider Montero will kick things off against the Yankees. Jack Flaherty and minor league lefty Bryan Sammons are scheduled to face the Orioles on Sunday, and Tarik Skubal will make his spring debut on Monday against the Twins. Free agent acquisition Drew Anderson will also pitch on Monday. And of course this is all subject to change.

Saturday’s game is set to be broadcast on what is now Tigers TV, while the games on Sunday and Monday will only be on the radio with Dan Dickerson on the mic.

Justin Verlander was back in Lakeland throwing a bullpen after being away over the weekend on a personal matter. He and Dillon Dingler had some conversations about setups behind the plate and how the future Hall of Famer likes his targets set. They also talked a bit about angles to hitters on either side of the plate.

You can check that out below, and as a bonus we have Josue Briceño taking Tarik Skubal deep in a live BP session. Even in practice, you love to see that from the 21-year-old top 100 ranked slugging prospect. Hitting a tank to right off the best left-hander in the game is a nice note for the Tigers #4 ranked prospect.

So, I guess they’re really doing this, huh? We’ve been hearing more and more from the Braves (particularly President of Baseball Operations/GM Alex Anthopoulos) about how the club is reportedly pretty confident in their internal options and are willing to let the fifth spot in the rotation be an open competition instead of going out and snapping up another starting pitcher, either via trade or free agency.

It would be understandable to think that this might be a GM-speak smokescreen of sorts since I’m certain that the Braves wouldn’t be the only team looking to give their rotation a last-minute boost at this stage in the baseball calendar. Well, apparently it’s not a smokescreen and this is just the way it’s going to be. Gabe Burns of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting that one name that the Braves were previously linked to was actually a bit overblown. Lucas Giolito’s name has been associated with the Braves for long portions of the offseason and as it turns out, you should probably hold off on getting your Giolito jerseys any time soon.

There have been reports linking the Braves to free-agent starter Lucas Giolito, but any connection between the parties has been overstated, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has learned. The Braves haven’t been involved in Giolito’s market.

That also explains why the Braves didn’t exactly go hard on pursuing Chris Bassitt before he got picked up by the Orioles. Here’s more from that article from Burns:

The Braves also didn’t seriously pursue veteran Chris Bassitt, whom many speculated was a logical fit and would’ve been welcomed in the clubhouse.

The only conclusion to make here is that the Braves are likely dead serious about feeling confident in their internal options. The natural thing to do next is to mosey on over to FanGraphs to take a look at what the Braves depth chart is looking like when it comes to their rotation. You’ve got the four names that the team has mentioned since spring training began: Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo López and Grant Holmes. Then you have the fifth spot, which is projected to be filled by none other than Bryce Elder, himself.

Again: As long as Elder isn’t at the top of the “Innings Pitched” leaderboard for this team, this might end up being fine. If Elder stays in that fifth spot and can simply eat innings while (hopefully) avoiding his habit of grooving at least one or even two pitches right down the middle for them to get hit to the moon then this should be fine! However, if the rotation continues to struggle with health like they did last season then there’s a very good chance that this could come back to bite this ballclub in the butt. Again, the internal depth for this pitching staff isn’t exactly encouraging and it surely doesn’t help quell any anxiety to see guys like Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep go down this early in the season’s calendar.

Perhaps that explains why the team didn’t get aggressive in pursuing starting pitching in free agency. I suppose they figure that as long as both Schwellenbach and Waldrep have a smooth recovery and that the rotation stays healthy then this will be a perfectly fine rotation. To be fair to the front office, things did work out with the pitching staff as recently as 2024, which the GM will be quick to remind anybody who asks that they led the league in ERA (ERA-, FIP and FIP- as well) during that campaign. From that 2024 rotation, Chris Sale is still here alongside Reynaldo López and (hopefully at some point) Spencer Schwellenbach will be able to contribute as well.

With that being said, banking on a repeat of 2024 would be about as risky of a bet as saying that the entire rotation is going to get seriously injured yet again. The hope is for this part rotation to land somewhere in the upper-middle portion between those two extremes and if things go right as far as health is concerned, that could very well be the case.

Still, I really don’t think it was the best idea to simply run it back with the internal depth instead of seriously pursuing some outside options. Of course, I’m just a blogger and for all we know, the Braves may have simply just hit their ceiling as far as the budget is concerned (which is not the same as being cheap — again, this roster was shooting for a Top 5 payroll and very nearly reached that space) and the corporate overlords running the team simply weren’t willing to move the ceiling any higher. That could also explain why the team went to arbitration with Dylan Lee over $200 thousand but that’s another story for another day.

I think we’re all hoping that it works out with this rotation but if it doesn’t then your concerns are totally valid! We’ll see what happens, y’all.

Last offseason, the Rays acquired Mason Englert from the Tigers for Drew Sommers, adding a flexible, multi-inning arm with option years. Englert fit that role well, posting solid results while working more than one inning in nearly half his appearances.

But the interesting question is whether the Rays should ask for more. Marc Topkin reported that Englert was in consideration for a rotation spot prior to bringing in Nick Martinez. Signing Martinez should not come at the expense of Englert getting stretched out.

Englert’s combination of plus strike-throwing, shape diversity, and outlier command – particularly of his change-up – gives him traits that translate beyond middle relief. With incremental adjustments already underway in, there’s a plausible path toward a back-end starter role.

Background

A fourth-round pick in 2018, Englert lost nearly three seasons to Tommy John surgery and the pandemic but quickly established himself as a strike-throwing starter in A-ball. By 2022, his 66% strike rate and deep repertoire made him a Rule 5 target.

The Tigers followed the usual script for Rule 5 pickups who have to remain on the major league roster. They deployed him in low-leverage relief. It wasn’t a surprise that Englert didn’t immediately replicate his previous MiLB success – especially when considering he skipped AAA.

In 2024 Rule 5 no longer applied, meaning Englert could be optioned, and he appropriately spent most of the season in AAA. His production in the majors, when promoted, still wasn’t great, but it was an improvement from what he had shown in 2023.

Joining the Rays

Englert’s defining trait is strike-throwing – a skill the Rays value quite a bit.

The team helped alter Englert’s cutter shape in 2025, reducing vertical break while adding some horizontal movement. The result is a pitch with clearer separation from his four-seamer and more gyro characteristics – effectively blending his previous cutter and slider into a single, more versatile shape. The 2025 grip shows him working more around the ball (top image; index finger more on the side of the ball), compared to the more behind-the-ball grip in 2024 (bottom image; index finger more behind the ball).

Englert now throws three distinct fastball shapes – similar to the Drew Rasmussen and Shawn Armstrong molds we’ve seen in the past. Fastballs are generally the easiest shapes to command, but tend to not generate as many whiffs, so it makes sense that Englert has become more of a contact manager with this adjustment. The rest of his arsenal remains largely unchanged. Any subtle differences in shapes could be attributed to his arm slot shifting from 33 degrees in 2024 to 40 degrees in 2025.

The other change to Englert’s arsenal when he joined the Rays was that he added a larger breaking ball shape. Though used sparingly (8%), the addition hints at preparation for a starter or bulk role in 2026. This upper 70s breaking ball gives him a third distinct velocity band in his arsenal; his four-seamer and two-seamer sit low 90s while his offspeed pitch and cutter sit in the upper 80s. Multiple shapes and velocity bands give him different looks the second and third time through a lineup.

While it may lack significant velocity or VAA separation from his fastball that you’d typically want, Englert’s best pitch is his change-up. He might have 70 grade command of it. Many pitchers have a single, general intended location for each of their pitches, but Englert is actually able to locate his change-up to two distinct locations depending on the batter’s handedness. Below is his heatmap of the pitch against RHB last season:

And here it is to LHB:

While this pitch doesn’t have any physical outlier traits in movement or how it interacts with his fastball, his command of it is an outlier. It’s clear why he feels so comfortable throwing the pitch to righties just as much as lefties.

The obvious objection to Englert moving to the rotation is that he doesn’t miss enough bats to profile as a traditional starter. His velocity sits in the low 90s, and his whiff rates have been modest. But the Rays have repeatedly shown they value shape diversity and command over pure velocity. Starting isn’t only about overpowering hitters; it’s about sequencing, disrupting timing, and navigating a lineup. Englert’s arsenal gives him tools to do exactly that.

Looking Ahead to 2026

Given his command, shape diversity, and developmental runway, the Rays have little to lose by stretching him out. He has distinct attack plans for both LHB and RHB, with enough shapes to vary sequencing multiple times through a lineup. He may not immediately crack the major league rotation, and he’s in his final option year so there’s some flexibility with how he could be used between AAA and the majors. The Rays don’t need Mason Englert to become a frontline starter. They just need to find out if there’s more here than middle relief, and the evidence suggests it’s worth asking the question.