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It's another full slate of games across the Majors, and I've pinpointed three quality picks in my MLB player props analysis. 

I'm eyeing Martin Perez to carve up a divisional rival, while Jacob deGrom should find his best once again in Arlington, and Alex Bregman also gets a solid matchup as he looks to keep swinging a hot bat.

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 5. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Martin Perez	Under 2.5 earned runs	-122
Jacob deGrom	Under 1.5 earned runs	+111
Alex Bregman	Over 1.5 total bases	+131

Martin Perez Under 2.5 earned runs (-122)

Atlanta Braves lefty Martin Perez has been holding it down lately. While his underlying metrics suggest otherwise, the veteran owns a 1.86 ERA across his last two starts. 

In fact, he's also allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his last six appearances. One difficult outing during that span inflated his xERA, but Perez has looked dominant in recent starts. 

Perez has allowed minimal barrels, and he already tossed six scoreless innings against the Philadelphia Phillies earlier this season. 

Play up to -140. 

• Time: 6:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: BravesVision, NBC Sports Philadelphia

Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 earned runs (+111)

Jacob deGrom has had issues at times this season, but when he's at home, the righty has been utterly dominant. The Texas Rangers starter owns a 2.13 FIP at Globe Life Field this season. 

Two of deGrom's last three home outings were scoreless gems, and he also allowed just one earned run in the other. The former Cy Young winner will now face a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that is in very poor offensive form, compiling an 85 wRC+ across the last week. 

Expect another gem from the 38-year-old. 

Play down to +100. 

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Rays.TV, RSN

Alex Bregman Over 1.5 total bases (+147)

The Chicago Cubs' offense is hot in general, and Alex Bregman is playing a massive part. The third baseman has a ridiculous .692 ISO and .423 average over his last six contests.

Of his 11 hits during that span, eight have been for extra bases. He's smacked three doubles and five home runs. Bregman has cashed the Over in total bases in four of his previous five games.

Bregman faces Ryan Gusto tonight, who has a vulnerable 4.54 xERA over the last month. The Miami Marlins pen is also shaky at the moment. 

The slugger will stay hot. 

Play down to +110. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Marquee Sports Network

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Ima Gun-Di. Garielvin Silverio. Jace Mataczynski. Salacious B. Crumb. Tobias Beckett. Jedixson Paez. Half of these are characters from the Star Wars universe; the other half are Boston Red Sox prospects. That doesn’t have much to do with the rest of this piece, but recent Red Sox call-up Jedixson Paez’s name starts with “Jedi” and sounds really cool, so my mind went to Star Wars. (Note: it’s pronounced Head-Ick-Son).

Paez hails from Venezuela, whose rate of pumping out baseball players rivals Tatooine’s rate of pumping out jedis. Was Obi-Wan Kenobi from Tatooine, or did he happen to live there when Luke was a kid? For a nerd who has seen the Star Wars movies too many times, I weirdly don’t know much of the lore beyond what’s depicted on screen. The Pod on Lansdowne crew is going to hate this.

Paez, much like Luke Skywalker, left his home planet of Boston in the 2025 Rule-5 Draft and was taken to Alderaan Chicago to learn the ways of the Force White Sox. This is where the metaphor ends, because Luke doesn’t go back to his home planet for another two movies, and Paez only made three appearances with the White Sox before being designated for assignment and returning to the Red Sox organization.

Over those three outings, Paez failed to record a strikeout, walked three of the 16 batters he faced, and surrendered two home runs to combine for an 18 ERA. On Tuesday, with the rotation being held together by duct tape and Payton Tolle, the Red Sox were in need of a spot start and called upon Paez.

I’ll cut to the chase — the start went poorly. Paez surrendered eight runs over 3.2 innings. He gave up 10 hits, walking two and striking out three. He was booed on multiple occasions throughout the evening. Trevor Story tossed his first career strikeout ball into the stands at the end of an inning. It was an all-around a rough team debut for the rookie.

I want to look at the second inning. Paez was tagged for five earned runs in the frame, but I don’t think he was as bad as the line looks. Josh Naylor started the inning with a double to deep right-center field on a sinker that was on the edge. It was a good swing by Naylor on a pitch that was well-located, but probably doesn’t need to be thrown much against lefties. After that, Cole Young hit a jamshot single on a cutter in a good location. Paez walked the next batter as he lost the zone a bit, and then gave up a sacrifice fly. The next batter hit a chopper over first base that went for an infield single. After that, he left a pitch over the middle of the plate to Randy Arozarena, who hit it one million feet for a three-run home run.

He threw two meatballs that went for home runs in the evening, the second of which capped off the five-run inning. While the inning was far from a masterpiece, to me, it was more a case of a few bad pitches and some bad batted-ball luck that snowballed on a young pitcher. He was put in a tough spot against a good lineup and wasn’t up for the challenge.

That doesn’t mean it’s all bad, though. I saw a few things during the start that can be building blocks. First, his fastball shape. The height-adjusted vertical approach angle came in at 1.1 degrees, a solid mark that should help miss bats and mask poor locations. He also averaged 92 miles per hour with 6.7 feet of extension. The velocity mark is hardly eye-catching, but he throws with such relaxed mechanics and has room to add muscle. The Red Sox have had success in helping pitchers add velocity, and Paez is a prime candidate for offseason improvement.

He also flashed a curveball that doesn’t jump off the page, but his ability to flip it in the zone for free strikes was impressive. He generally kept it down, though a few popped out of his hand and landed above the zone. Through the minors, Paez has been a solid strike-thrower with his fastballs. On a night when his fastballs weren’t there, the curveball gave him a strike-getter and is another arrow in his quiver that he can command well and help him jump in front of hitters.

Speaking of strike-getting weapons, Paez threw a cutter for 90% strikes as well. Given the rest of his arsenal, the cutter is a big pitch to use against right-handed hitters. On Tuesday, he went 6/6 with it, though the locations were poor. At 85 mph with positive horizontal movement, it should work with the right locations.

The real attraction, however, is the changeup. It’s not the typical arm-side running changeup that most pitchers feature, but more of a straight-change. Anecdotally, I find that straight changes are typically more platoon-neutral and can survive better in the zone. Through a short major-league career, the pitch has shown bat-missing ability, registering a 17% swinging strike rate. Even as he struggled on Tuesday, he was able to induce four whiffs with the pitch.

Paez’s stuff isn’t overwhelming, but he has a deep arsenal of pitches that shouldn’t be destroyed when they’re commanded. “Have better command” is easier said than done, but he’s shown elite command in the minor leagues. He has minuscule walk rates in each of his minor league stops. In his brief time in Worcester, each of his pitches has a strike rate over 60%. They’re also generally commanded where they’re supposed to be (featuring my MS Paint handwriting because I was too lazy to pull up Photoshop).

The changeups and sinkers are on the arm-side. The cutter is on the glove side. The four-seam fastballs are generally up in the zone as well. The curveball probably caught too much of the plate, though that might be primarily early in counts to steal strikes. Given his minor league command, I’d expect him to rein it back in once his feet are under him.

Paez was sent back down to Worcester to work on his craft, and potentially stay ready for another spot start if the rotation needs reshuffling. The big league club has an off day each of the final three weeks of the season, so they may be able to shift things around without requiring an extra arm. If Paez is called upon once again, there’s reason to believe he can throw a few solid innings. If we don’t see him again this year, that’s okay too. He’s 22 years old, big, and has a deep arsenal. There’s plenty of time for the Padawan to become a full-fledged Jedi.

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (70 – 64)

ROCHESTER 5, SYRACUSE 0 (BOX)

In game one of the double-header, the Mets mustered only three hits against the Red Wings. Jack Wenninger went four, striking our five, allowing two runs on four hits and three walks. Dan Hammer didn’t help, allowing three runs in one and a third innings pitched.

• CF D’Andre Smith: 0-3, 2 K
• 2B Émilien Pitre: 1-3, K, SB, E
• SS Ronny Mauricio: 0-3, 3 K
• RF MJ Melendez: 1-2, 2B, BB
• DH Eric Wagaman: 0-3
• 3B Vidal Bruján: 0-3, K
• LF Ryan Clifford: 0-2, K
• 1B Nick Lorusso: 0-2
• C Hayden Senger: 1-2, K
• P Jack Wenninger: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
• P Dan Hammer: 1.1 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• P Saul Garcia: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Triple-A: Syracuse Mets (71 – 64)

SYRACUSE 7, ROCHESTER 4 (BOX)

Zach Franklin (acquired for Huascar Brazobán) continued his success in Triple-A, tossing two scoreless innings, allowing two hits with one strikeout. On the alternate spelling tip, Zack Short hit an RBI double. Vidal Bruján drove in two runs on a double and Hayden Senger drilled a three-run, pinch hit home run.

• LF-RF D’Andre Smith: 1-4, K
• 3B Vidal Bruján: 1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, K
• 2B Ronny Mauricio: 1-3, BB, 2 K
• RF MJ Melendez: 0-1
• LF Ryan Clifford: 0-3
• 1B Eric Wagaman: 0-4, R
• DH Nick Lorusso: 1-4, R, 2B, 2 K
• CF Jose Ramos: 1-3, 3 R, 2 K
• C Kevin Parada: 0-2, RBI, K
• PH Émilien Pitre: 0-1, K
• C Hayden Senger: 1-1, R, HR, 3 RBI
• SS Zack Short: 1-2, R, 2B, RBI, BB
• P Jack Weisenburger: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 1 K
• P Zach Franklin: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Matt Turner: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Ben Simon: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
• P Dylan Ross: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
• P Brian Metoyer: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

Double-A: Binghamton Rumble Ponies (59 – 71)

BINGHAMTON 2, NEW HAMPSHIRE 0 (BOX)

Mitch Voit drove in both Bingo runs on a double, which accounted for just all the offense for the Rumble Ponies, aside from a single by Eddinson Paulino. The Binghamton pitching staff allowed just four baserunners all night, stirking out ten and walking none.

• SS Mitch Voit: 1-4, 2B, 2 RBI, K
• 3B Jefferson Rojas: 0-2, 2 BB, K, SB
• DH Jacob Reimer: 0-4, 2 K
• C Chris Suero: 0-4, 2 K
• CF John Bay: 0-3, K
• LF Corey Collins: 0-3, 2 K
• RF JT Benson: 0-0, R, 2 BB, 2 SB
• 1B Jamari Baylor: 0-2, R, BB, K
• 2B Eddinson Paulino: 1-2, K
• P Luke Gabrysh: 5.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
• P Bryce Jenkins: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Carlos Guzman: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• P Garrett Stratton: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

High-A: Brooklyn Cyclones (57 – 72)

FREDERICK 9, BROOKLYN 5 (BOX)

John Spikerman had himself a night in the Brooklyn loss: two walks, three stolen bases, three runs scored, a home run, and two RBI. Sadly, Joe Scarborough gave up six runs in just an inning and a third of work, leading to the loss.

• SS Sammy Stafura: 1-1, BB
• PH-SS Antonio Jimenez: 1-3, 2 K
• CF Aidan Smith: 0-5, 2 K
• RF Aiden Robbins: 0-3, BB, 2 K
• 3B Cole Mathis: 0-4, 2 K
• 2B Yonatan Henriquez: 1-4, R, 3B
• 1B Ronald Hernandez: 0-4, 2 K
• LF John Spikerman: 2-2, 3 R, HR, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 3 SB
• DH Daiverson Gutierrez: 0-3, BB, 2 K
• C Alejandro Urias: 1-4, R, HR, 2 RBI
• P Jose Chirinos: 4.2 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K
• P Juan Arnaud: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• P Hunter Hodges: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
• P Joe Scarborough: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 0 K

Single-A: St. Lucie Mets (57 – 72)

ST. LUCIE 10, JUPITER 6 (BOX)

Yovanny Rodriguez hit two solo home runs, and Kuhio Aloy and Branny De Oleo added home runs of their own en route to the St. Lucie dub. The St. Lucie staff struck out 17 and walked six.

• SS Boston Baro: 2-5, 2 R, RBI, K
• RF Branny De Oleo: 1-3, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, BB, K
• C Yovanny Rodriguez: 2-3, 3 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB, K, 2 E
• LF Kuhio Aloy: 1-3, R, HR, 4 RBI, BB, K, SB
• DH Jack Toomey: 0-4, K
• 1B Julio Zayas: 0-4, 2 K
• 3B Jeremy Rodriguez: 0-2, 2 R, 2 BB
• CF Vladi Gomez: 0-3, BB, SB
• 2B Yunior Amparo: 1-3, RBI, BB, K
• P Peyton Prescott: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
• P Shane Sdao: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P Aidan Keenan: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
• P AJ Krodel: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Nate Isler: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• P Tyler McLoughlin: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K
• P Zack Mack: 1.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

STAR OF THE NIGHT

John Spikerman

GOAT OF THE NIGHT

Joe Scarborough

The streak is now over for Bryce Harper. His on base streak ended last night after 35 games, a testament to how well he has done in the past month plus. Coincidence that he didn’t get on base and the Phillies lost the game? I think not.

On to the links.

Phillies news:

• The lawsuit brought against his parents by Alec Bohm has been settled out of court ($). An end to a sad series of events.
• To get the trade for Luis Arraez done, the club needed buy in from Bryce Harper to switch positions. So far, so good I’d say.

MLB news:

• Now that the sale of the Angels is starting to see a finish line, the stories of Arte Moreno’s ownership are going to start coming to the fore.
• Even though I would contend it’s still too early to write something like this, here are trade deadline winners and losers, one month later.
• Stop me if you’ve heard this before: an owner gets a new stadium deal, then says it will lead to more money being spent on players. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Good morning Birdland,

You would have thought that Colton Cowser’s catch in Colorado a few days ago would have been the exact kind of jet fuel the Orioles needed to really go on a run and take the AL’s final wild card for themselves. Instead, they have now lost four in a row since that moment and have fallen to three games out of the playoff picture. They have just 20 games left to make up the ground, and the odds that they manage to do it aren’t great.

Losses like last night’s 1-0 defeat at the hands of the Red Sox are so demoralizing. Shane Baz was about as good as you could have asked. He gave up one run, a solo homer in the very first inning. And the bullpen was great behind him. But the Orioles offense did absolutely nothing. That sort of summary is all too familiar at this point.

They collected six hits, all singles, and one walk. They managed to create just three at-bats with a runner in scoring position. In those situations, they were hitless. Blaze Alexander alone was responsible for three of the team’s hits. The rest of the lineup was a combined 3-for-27 with a walk and four strikeouts. Ugh.

Alexander did create a bit of a spark in the eighth inning, when he started jawing with Trevor Story after attempting to break up a double play. The argument emptied the bullpens and the benches. While Alexander was being pulled from the interaction he started throwing his hands up in the air to encourage the home crowd to start cheering. It did create a buzz, but the Orioles did nothing with it.

That is the sort of fire that this Orioles team could use more of. And Alexander should have the latitude to make it happen. He has been the team’s best contact hitter pretty much all season long, and has picked right back up where he left when he hit the IL back in July. If the Orioles are going to make the postseason this year, they need to get hot right now. Maybe Alexander’s energy helps them do that.

This four-game set will continue on Saturday night in Baltimore. Chris Bassitt (6-4, 4.97) has the first pitch at 7:05. He will be opposed by Sonny Gray (16-4, 2.82 ERA).

Links

Blaze’s fire empties benches, but can’t spark slumping Orioles | Orioles.com
I will be honest that I was not a huge fan of the move for Alexander, but it has been a nice bit of business. If he finishes the season as this type of hitter (127 OPS+), then I think the Orioles need to find an everyday role for him somewhere on the diamond in 2027. If he can settle into a position, we might see his defensive metrics bounce back as well.

Sanders finds much in common with father, leftovers on Baz | Roch Kubatko
The O’s might have found themselves something with Cam Sanders. As explained here, he has the background of his dad being a big leaguer, which may have helped him navigate some early-career struggles. The talent is obvious. He has certainly pitched well enough to be considered for the 2027 Orioles bullpen. Whether he can duplicate what he has done to this point with the Birds moving forward is something else.

Diamondbacks To Activate Corbin Burnes On Tuesday | MLB Trade Rumors
Not really Orioles related anymore, but it can be fun to keep tabs on old friends. Burnes hasn’t pitched in a big league game since last June. On top of the Tommy John he also suffered a teres major strain, which elongated his rehab. The Diamondbacks only gave him one minor league start, which last two innings at the end of August. He will essentially continue his rehab at the major league level, tossing around 60 pitches for Arizona on Tuesday. The team is half of a game out of the NL’s final wild card spot.

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Calvin Maduro turns 52 today. He pitched in parts of three seasons with the Orioles from 2000 through 2002.
• Jimmy Haynes is 54 years old. His career began in Baltimore, where he appeared in two seasons with the Orioles from 1995-96. The following season he was traded to the Athletics for outfielder Gerónimo Berroa.
• The late Tom Patton (b. 1939, d. 2025) was born on this day. He pitched in one MLB game, which came with the Orioles in 1957.

This day in O’s history

1995 – Cal Ripken Jr. ties Lou Gehrig by appearing in his 2,130th consecutive game. The Orioles beat the Angels 8-0 as Scott Erickson tosses a complete game and Ripken has three hits.

2010 – The Orioles beat the Rays 8-7 despite allowing four home runs. Corey Patterson leads the O’s lineup with a homer of his own and three rBI.

The Detroit Tigers were swept in their Friday doubleheader against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field, coughing up leads in both games, resulting in walk-off losses. These defeats just seem to get more and more brutal as the season mercifully wanes.

Getting the start for the Motor City Kitties on Saturday evening is left-hander Framber Valdez, who is coming off two straight six-inning quality starts to end August. However, the 32-year-old’s numbers over his last 12 innings of work are hardly impressive, posting a 4.50 ERA and 5.18 FIP on 14 hits (two home runs) and three walks while striking out just five over that span, earning a pair of losses along the way.

Valdez has faced Cleveland twice this season, with both resulting in losses thanks to a 6.75 ERA and 6.25 FIP over 10 2/3 innings of work, coughing up 11 hits (one home run) and nine walks while striking out six and hitting a batter.

For the Guardians, American League Rookie of the Year candidate left-hander Parker Messick will take the mound amidst a stellar debut campaign. The 25-year-old was particularly effective in August, putting up an impressive 2.02 ERA along with a tidy 2.68 FIP stretching over six games and 35 2/3 frames, giving up 27 hits (three home runs) and seven walks while striking out 39 batters, along with a hit-by-pitch and wild pitch.

However, the Tigers have challenged Messick a wee bit this summer in the two times they have faced each other, working him for a reasonable 3.38 ERA but a bloated 5.17 ERA on seven hits (two home runs) and five walks against 12 strikeouts and a HBP over 10 2/3 frames of work. He took a no-decision in a win at Detroit back in May while earning a loss in August, also at Comerica Park.

Here is a look at how the two match up for Game 3 of the four-game series on Saturday.

Detroit Tigers (64-77) vs. Cleveland Guardians (72-70)

Time (ET): 6:10 p.m.
Place: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
SB Nation Site:Covering the Corner
Media: Detroit SportsNet, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Game 142: LHP Framber Valdez (8-10, 4.36 ERA) vs. LHP Parker Messick (11-8, 2.46 ERA)

VALDEZ

MESSICK

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Our Saturday MLB moneyline predictions feature a strong mix of large underdogs and short favorites in solid individual and team matchups across the 15-game slate.

Read on for my MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.

MLB moneyline picks for September 5

For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick
SF vs NYM	38%
CHC vs MIA	55%
ATL vs PHI	59%
DET vs CLE	58%
LAA vs PIT	35%
MIL vs CIN	38%
BOS vs BAL	58%
TB vs TEX	48%
TOR vs KC	48%
MIN vs CWS	47%
AZ vs HOU	52%
NYY vs SD	53%
STL vs COL	53%
WSH vs LAD	28%
ATH vs SEA	35%

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 5.

Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 5

Unless otherwise noted, all stats are from FanGraphs and are from the last 14 days. 

Giants vs Mets: San Francisco Giants

Giants win probability: 38%

New York is priced too high, despite scuffling with a 91 wRC+ over the last two weeks. San Francisco’s offense sits comfortably above league average (109 wRC+), giving Anthony Molina solid run support. At this price, you are getting generous plus-money against a slumping Mets lineup.

Cubs vs Marlins: Chicago Cubs

Cubs win probability: 55%

Chicago is the hottest offense in baseball over the last 14 days, pacing MLB with a 151 wRC+ and .917 OPS. Ryan Gusto faces a relentless lineup, and while Chicago’s bullpen can be volatile, Miami’s 93 wRC+ and 4.38 relief SIERA lack the firepower to capitalize on late-inning mistakes.

Braves vs Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies win probability: 59%

Zack Wheeler gives Philadelphia a clear starting pitching edge over Martín Pérez. Atlanta's bullpen ERA (2.18) is an illusion propped up by an unsustainable 82.7% strand rate against an underwhelming 4.27 SIERA. Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks second in baseball (3.19 SIERA), providing the late-inning stability needed to cash at the window.

Tigers vs Guardians: Cleveland Guardians

Guardians win probability: 58%

Detroit’s offense is completely dead, ranking dead last in baseball with an abysmal 55 wRC+ and .187 batting average. Even with Framber Valdez starting, the Tigers’ 4.66 relief SIERA cannot hold leads. Cleveland brings a league-best bullpen (3.03 SIERA) and a 105 wRC+ offense at a very reasonable and playable price.

Angels vs Pirates: Los Angeles Angels

Angels win probability: 35%

Pittsburgh is priced like a heavy favorite despite an anemic offense that has produced a 74 wRC+ and a .094 ISO. Braxton Ashcraft does not warrant laying that kind of price against anyone. Yusei Kikuchi gives the Angels enough competent starter innings to make this massive underdog worth taking.

Brewers vs Reds: Cincinnati Reds

Reds win probability: 38%

Milwaukee is laying steep chalk at -164 that violates value rules. Cincinnati’s lineup ranks seventh in baseball over the last two weeks (111 wRC+, .194 ISO), bringing genuine power against Dustin May. Backing Andrew Abbott at big-dog money offers tremendous leverage against a Milwaukee bullpen sporting a 4.49 xFIP.

Red Sox vs Orioles: Boston Red Sox

Red Sox win probability: 58%

Sonny Gray gives Boston the early advantage against Chris Bassitt. Boston's offense has remained steady with a 109 wRC+ and minimal swing-and-miss (18.8% K%), whereas Baltimore’s lineup sits near the bottom third with a 94 wRC+. Gray should work deep enough to hand Boston a lead at a fair price.

Rays vs Rangers: Texas Rangers

Rangers win probability: 48%

Texas is swinging the bats at an elite level, ranking second in MLB with a 124 wRC+ over the last fortnight. Jacob deGrom at home as a plus-money underdog against a flat Tampa Bay offense (84 wRC+) is the clearest form-versus-price discrepancy on the entire Saturday slate.

Blue Jays vs Royals: Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays win probability: 48%

This will likely become a pitcher's duel between Max Scherzer and Seth Lugo, but late-inning profiles separate them. Kansas City’s bullpen is generating almost no whiffs (16.4% K%, 4.49 SIERA). Toronto’s relievers are striking out 27.1% of batters with a 3.56 SIERA, giving the Blue Jays the clear advantage at plus-money.

Twins vs White Sox: Minnesota Twins

Twins win probability: 47%

Minnesota's lineup is driving the ball with authority, posting a 111 wRC+ and .191 ISO with an exceptionally low 17.1% strikeout rate over the last two weeks. Anthony Kay is prone to hard contact, giving Taj Bradley and the Twins solid value as live road underdogs, and the Twinkies are ripe for the picking.

Diamondbacks vs Astros: Houston Astros

Astros win probability: 52%

 At near pick'em odds, Houston has the decisive bullpen advantage. Houston relievers have dominated with a 3.02 FIP and 3.55 SIERA over the last two weeks. Arizona’s offense is sputtering down at an 84 wRC+, making Ethan Pecko and the Astros' superior bullpen the correct side tonight.

Yankees vs Padres: New York Yankees

Yankees win probability: 53%

Carlos Rodón and Robbie Ray should duel, but New York holds the offensive edge. The Yankees boast a 112 wRC+ over the last 14 days, compared to San Diego’s sluggish 91 wRC+. With pricing set essentially at pick'em, back the lineup producing extra-base hits at a higher rate.

Cardinals vs Rockies: St. Louis Cardinals

Cardinals win probability: 53%

Colorado’s bullpen is the worst in the show over the last two weeks, posting an awful 6.1% K-BB% and 4.79 SIERA. While Coors Field is always a wild card, Matthew Liberatore faces a Colorado offense with an 86 wRC+. Laying the modest juice against Colorado's leaky bullpen is a solid play.

Nationals vs Dodgers: Washington Nationals

Nationals win probability: 28%

The Dodgers are entirely unplayable at this big a number, especially with an offense slugging just .324 (93 wRC+) over the last two weeks. Cade Cavalli has live stuff, and while Tyler Glasnow is dominant, paying a 72% implied price tag on a slumping Dodgers lineup provides zero mathematical cushion. 

Athletics vs Mariners: Athletics

Athletics win probability: 35%

Seattle's price is far too high. Seattle's bullpen has been a disaster over the last two weeks with a 6.94 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. Meanwhile, the A’s offense is quietly raking with a 113 wRC+ and a .276 average. Jeffrey Springs gives Oakland a live upset chance and a massive payday.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Atlanta Braves jumped out in front early and took the series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies 5-2. In a pivotal series, Chris Sale got the start and turned in six innings. He surrendered two runs on six hits, walked one, and struck out seven. Friday’s outing gave him his 14th win of the season. 

Fortunately for Sale, the Atlanta lineup put together some timely hitting to give the Braves the early lead before Mauricio Dubón tacked on some insurance in the eighth. His two-run home run gave the Braves the 5-2 edge before Raisel Iglesias came out and sealed the deal.

Atlanta aims to ride this momentum into tonight’s game, with first pitch set for 6:05 ET.

More Braves News:

Major League Baseball has announced the 2027 Spring Training schedule, and it (supposedly) will open February 19.

MLB News:

The Toronto Blue Jays are likely placing right-hander Jameson Taillon on the injured list after he exited his outing with elbow discomfort. He was just activated earlier this week. 

The Tampa Bay Rays have placed lefty Shane McClanahan on the 15-day injured list with left forearm tightness. The club has not provided updates on the severity of the injury.

The Houston Astros placed left-hander Steven Okert on the 15-day injured list with a right hamstring strain. The move is retroactive to September 1.

From the Feed:

Cast your vote for Braves Player of the Game here.

The Yankees played their second extra-innings thriller in as many games, and it looked like they might pull it out yet again. They scratched across a run in the tenth against Padres super closer Mason Miller, and they went to Paul Blackburn to close out the game, only to see Luis Campusano end the game with one swing. The loss stung, the Rays having won earlier in the night 7-6 in Texas. The AL East deficit stands at four.

On the site today, Josh writes in praise of the high number, like the ones rookies George Lombard Jr. and Spencer Jones are sporting on the back of their uniforms. Andrew goes through yesterday’s Rivalry Roundup, while today’s Yankee Birthday feature is on Al Orth, a pitcher from the earliest days of the franchise. Also, Nick delivers this month’s Reliever Confidence Index, and Andrés recaps how the additions the Yankees made at the beginning of August have done in their first month as Yankees.

Today’s Matchup:

New York Yankees at San Diego Padres

Time: 7:15 p.m. EST

TV: FOX

Venue: Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Questions/Prompts:

1. If Trent Grisham hit the IL with his latest hamstring injury, should Spencer Jones be the starting center fielder from here on out?

2. Do you think Will Warren’s work in a piggyback role last night is a precursor to the Yankees moving him to the bullpen in the coming weeks?

Indianapolis Indians 6, Toledo Mud Hens 0 (box)

The Hens managed just five hits in this one and really only mustered a few minor threats to score. Dylan File got the start. The right-hander was good for four innings and then gave up four runs in the fifth and another in the sixth. Hayden Minton cleaned up the sixth for him, but Brenan Hanifee gave up a run in the seventh. Brant Hurter tossed a perfect eighth, but that was a rare bright spot in this one.

Cruz: 1-4, 2B, K

Anderson: 1-3, BB

File (L, 6-10): 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 4 K

Coming Up Next: It’s a 7:05 p.m. ET start on Saturday in Toledo.

Erie Seawolves 17, Somerset Patriots (box)

This one was a joke almost from the start. Patriots pitching gave up 16 hits and a ridiculous 12 walks. It was like watching the Moon Mammoths play a Complex League pitching staff.

Peyton Graham was hit by a pitch to start the bottom of the first. Woody Hadeen singled and Zyhir Hope reached on an error. A wild pitch scored Graham with one out, and Izaac Pacheco walked to re-load the bases. Luke Shliger lifted a sac fly to plate Hadeen. That was all they’d get but the in second the floodgates opened.

Roberto Campos triple to start the bottom of the second and scored on a wild pitch. Patrick Lee walked, took second on a wild pitch, and scored on a Graham double.

Hadeen singled in Graham and took second on another wild pitch before Hope, Exposito, and Pacheco all walked, forcing in another run. Somerset went back to the pen, and Shliger lifted another sac fly to score Hope. By the time Campos closed out the scoring with an RBI double it was 9-0.

Exposito singled in Graham and Hadeen in the third, and really it just went on like this apart from a few respectable innings from Somerset’s pen later on.

Kenny Serwa got the start for Erie and tossed seven comfortable frames with that huge lead. He allowed four hits and a walk, striking out five. Eric Silva punched out three, closing this out with two perfect frames.

Hadeen: 3-5, 4 R, RBI, BB, K

Campos: 2-4, R, RBI, 2B, 3B, 2 BB, K

Hope: 2-5, R, BB, 2 K

Pacheco: 1-2, 2 R, 2 RBI, 3 BB, SB

Serwa (W, 5-8): 7.0 IP, 0 R, 4 H, BB, 5 K

Coming Up Next: It’s a 5:05 p.m. ET start on Saturday. They’ll try to play two and make up for Thursday’s rain out. The SeaWolves lead their division by five with nine games left in the season.

Dayton Dragons 8, West Michigan Whitecaps 1 (box)

The Whitecaps’ playoff aspirations were snuffed on Friday night as they managed just one hit. Great Lakes split their doubleheader and that was all they needed.

Maddux Long got the start, and he was fine. The right-hander allowed two in the first inning, then pitched into the sixth before allowing a run in the sixth after a Jack Goodman error at shortstop put the leadoff man on. Bryce Rainer had the night off for some reason.

It was only 2-0 Dayton when the Whitecaps scored in the third. Cristian Santana led off with a double and took third on a wild pitch. A Nolan McCarthy sacrifice fly made it a 2-1 game, but the offense completely dried up at that point.

The errors piled up as JoJo Ingrassia took over in the seventh. Santana at third, and Stephen Hrustrich in left were each charged with an error as the Dragons plated five runs to put this one out of reach.

With the ‘Caps season over, it will at least be interesting to see if they reinforce the SeaWolves with Ben Jacobs or another of their better arms.

Santana: 1-3, R, 2B

Long (L, 1-1): 6.0 IP, 3 R, 2 ER, 3 H, BB, 6 K

Coming Up Next: It’s a 7:05 p.m. ET start on Saturday.

Lakeland Flying Tigers 10 , Bradenton Marauders 2 (box)(F/7)(Gm1)

Michael Massey’s second outing went well and the Flying Tigers took advantage of seven walks to take the first game on Friday.

Massey went 2.1 innings, allowing just a single while striking out three.

Cris Rodriguez drew a bases loaded walk in the first to put the Flygers on the board 1-0. In the fourth, Michael Oliveto and Zach MacDonald singled and Maddox Molony walked to load the bases. A soft tapper back to the pitcher off of Brady Ballinger’s bat was thrown away, allowing Oliveto and MacDonald to score. Jordan Yost lifted a sac fly to score Molony, and Tyson LeBlanc doubled in Ballinger to make it 5-0.

Alemain Cruz took over from Massey in the third. In the fourth, he allowed a solo shot and then a walk. A triple scored that runner to make it 5-2.

In the sixth, Molony was hit by a pitch to leadoff, and Ballinger doubled him to third. Jude Warwick walked, and so did Yost, driving in Molony. A passed ball scored Ballinger, and a walk later to Anibal Salas scored Warwick to make it 8-2. Rodriguez then grounded into a double play that got Yost home to make it 9-2.

The Flying Tigers added a run in the seventh when MacDonald scored from third on a Ballinger double play ball.

LeBlanc: 3-3, R, RBI, 2B, BB

Molony: 2-2, 2 R, BB

Massey: 2.1 IP, 0 R, H, 0 BB, 3 K

Bradenton Marauders 4, Lakeland Flying Tigers 3 (box)

20-year-old pitching prospect Jhonan Coba put together a good outing, but Grayson Grinsell struggled some in Game 2.

Coba fired three innings of one-hit ball with a walk allowed, while striking out four on his evening.

Grinsell allowed a run in fourth, and another in the sixth. So it was 2-0 in the top of the seventh inning. Down to their last three outs, the Flying Tigers made a push.

Jesus Pinto drew a leadoff walk, and after Anibal Salas popped out, Zach MacDonald drew a walk as well. Michael Oliveto doubled them both in with a 105.2 mph rocket to right field. That tied the game, and Enderson Delgado gave Lakeland a lead with a single to score Oliveto.

Unfortunately, a pair of walks from Grinsell led to disaster as the Marauders walked them off to split the doubleheader.

Oliveto: 2-2, R, 2 RBI, 2B

De Los Santos: 2-3, 2B

Coba: 3.0 IP, 0 R, H, BB, 4 K

Coming Up Next: It’s a 6:30 p.m. ET start for the penultimate game of the season.

New York Post | Greg Joyce: ($) This weekend’s series in San Diego is a big one for Spencer Jones, and not only because he seeks to shore up his roster spot with Aaron Judge’s anticipated return on the horizon. Jones, a native of nearby Encinas, has had the Yankees’ trip to Petco Park circled since this winter. Still a minor-leaguer then, he set a goal to be with the big club in time for a homecoming, a goal he achieved as the series opened on Friday.

New York Daily News | Gary Phillips: Trent Grisham exited last night’s game against the Padres with a right hamstring strain. Grisham hit the IL with a strain of the same hamstring earlier this year. The center fielder seemed to labor on a shallow fly off the bat of Xander Bogaerts in the second and came out of the game after the inning. The Yankees appeared to have a roster crunch on their hands if and when Aaron Judge returns, but another IL stint for Grisham could put that crunch on hold.

MLB.com | Benjamin Hill: Luis Durango is in the midst of a breakout campaign in the Yankees’ minor league system, hitting .331 with 44 swipes. Even more notable is how he’s doing it. The 5-foot-10, 135 pounds speedster is a retro slap hitter to an extreme degree, employing bunts, Baltimore chops, and an offensive profile that centers around putting the ball on the ground. Despite — or, perhaps, because of — the fact that his approach is antithetical to the modern game, Durango has placed himself on the map as a budding prospect. “I describe it as unique,” the 23-year-old said to describe his hitting style. “And that’s what makes me special.”

MLB.com: The Yankees have announced their plans for commemorating the 25th anniversary of 9/11 next Friday. Before hosting the Mets at Yankee Stadium, the team will recognize the New York City Police Department (NYPD), Fire Department of the City of New York (FDNY), Port Authority Police Department (PAPD), Tunnel to Towers Foundation, and Tuesday’s Promise. Some members of the 2001 Yankees will be on hand to take part, as will several musical performers. First pitches will be thrown by Brielle Saracini and Sean McGuire, a married couple who both lost their fathers in the attacks.