
One week ago, the Orioles were flying high. They were in the midst of a successful road trip that had them back to .500 for the first time since April and just half a game out of the AL’s final wild card spot. Colton Cowser’s walk-off web gem in Colorado felt like a sign from the universe that, despite how “rocky” the season had been to this point, it was all gonna work out.
Fools! All of us.
Since the moment that ball hit Cowser’s glove above the center field fence in Denver, the Orioles are 0-6. They have been outscored 25-13, been shutout twice, own an OPS of just .558, and have seen their playoff aspirations go up in smoke.
As of this writing, the Orioles are now four games back of the AL’s final wild card spot. Baseball Reference gives them just a 4.4% chance to the make the postseason. It’s not an impossible path, especially with a series against the Guardians starting this afternoon, but let’s not kid ourselves. It’s not happening for this club. They’ve treaded water all season, and this most recent series against the Red Sox is what finally made them drown.
As a fan, it’s heartbreaking to see this team you care so much about totally collapse with a postseason chance on the line. But at the same time it’s hard to not feel some sort of relief in knowing that this frustrating season is coming to an end with a bit of closure. There’s no one moment or circumstance to be pointed to and said “Well, if they had just avoided that, everything would have come together.” No. This team was never going to figure it out.
Hopefully it will also be a sign to the Orioles organization that they have a lot internal reflection to do this winter.
It was easy enough coming out of 2025 for the front office to point fingers several different places to avoid blame. There were injuries up and down the roster. Several young players in prominent roles were still growing. The starting rotation was just missing a piece or two. On and on the list could have gone.
It’s tough to run that same “analysis” back after this season. Sure, there were injuries again, but that’s true for every team. Those young players that were supposed to continue their upward ascension have stalled as supporting cast rather than emerging stars. And the rotation added three pieces, including one that was handed a long-term deal and has stayed healthy all summer.
The outcome has been a team that runs (mildly) hot and (ice) cold, but is inherently flawed.
The biggest failure has come in the assembly of the offense. It was supposed to be a juggernaut that carried the team. Instead, they rank 15th in MLB in runs scored, 11th in home runs, 26th in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, and 23rd in slugging percentage. An absolute disaster.
It’s even worse if you look at some of the individual performances. Gunnar Henderson (99 wRC+), Samuel Basallo (99 wRC+), Colton Cowser (94 wRC+), and Jackson Holliday (88 wRC+) have all been disappointments. That’s not to say that have all been consistently bad. There have been moments where each of them has shown their promise, but they were supposed to be the core of an unstoppable, homegrown lineup.
Those struggles may reveal a deeper organizational problem. The development of young bats at the minor league level is what had evaluators around baseball excited about the Orioles future. The club had prioritized those types of prospects and had done well to groom them through the farm system. But now, almost all of them are hitting a wall once reaching the majors. Henderson even had years of success at the highest level and now looks like a shell of himself. Holliday has never performed like the future star he was supposed to be. Cowser at least has developed into an elite defender in center. Basallo deserves a little grace given his injury woes that followed a solid start to the season. Regardless, alarm bells should be going off in the warehouse.
As a group, these Orioles simply don’t do anything particularly well on offense. They are a subpar “three true outcomes” team years after that approach has fallen out of fashion. It’s a brutal brand of baseball to watch, and it doesn’t even come with the desired outcome of regularly scoring a bunch of runs. Rather it turns into recurring and extended slumps where opposing pitchers mow through the lineup with ease because when the walks and home runs aren’t stacking they have nowhere else to turn.
There have been positives, of course. Pete Alonso (140 wRC+, 33 home runs) has been worth the big contract he earned over the winter. Blaze Alexander (121 wRC+), when healthy, has emerged as a useful contact-oriented utility piece that can fit all over the field. Christian Encarnacion-Strand (124 wRC+) came up late in the year and filled the black hole that opened at third base after Jordan Westburg’s preseason injury. Coby Mayo has become a left-handed pitcher’s nightmare (209 wRC+ vs. LHP) while starting to improve his approach against righties as well. Maybe the Orioles do have something on their hands there. But the bad continues to outweigh the good.
The degree to which the Orioles botched the construction of their lineup has obscured the progress made on the pitching side of things.
Shane Baz (3.5 fWAR) and Trevor Rogers (3.2 fWAR) have been two of the 25 most valuable starting pitchers in MLB this year. Kyle Bradish has faded recently, but has been generally solid in his first season back after Tommy John surgery, and is now signed in Baltimore long term. Brandon Young has been so much more valuable than could have been expected, and now seems like a lock for the 2027 rotation. The group will need to add an arm of some significance this offseason, especially if Rogers signs elsewhere, but the building blocks for a good group are there.
At the same time, the Orioles bullpen has turned into one of the better and deeper units in the sport. Their 5.0 fWAR is seventh-best in MLB, and they also rank in the top 10 in ERA (3.91), xERA (3.65), and FIP (3.81). Is there any one single dominant arm in the bunch? Eh, not so much, but few teams can turn to this many different options with at least some level of confidence, and they expect to have fully healthy versions of Félix Bautista and Ryan Helsley in 2027. Again, this is a solid starting point
But how much credit should the front office get for the pitching when the part of the team that was supposed to be their calling card, the lineup, has been such a problem?
Many in the fan base have been calling for Mike Elias’ head for a while now, dating back to the offseason that followed the team’s meltdown in the second half of 2024. Those cries grew louder last winter, and they may be at all-time high right now.
It is possible that Elias gets the boot this offseason. After all, he is the architect of this team, and it sounds like his boss isn’t thrilled with recent events. Orioles’ control person David Rubenstein described himself as “embarrassed” by the team’s decline. Those comments came after a winter that saw him pony up cash for Alonso’s big deal and an extension for Baz, plus recent long-term deals for Basallo and Bradish.
At the same time, Rubenstein has generally been complimentary of Elias and evidently feels confident in the team’s process, even if the results have not been ideal. Add in what is expected to be an atypical offseason for MLB amid a labor dispute, and you could start to see the ownership group preferring stability for another year.
Whatever happens, a shakeup of some kind should be the bare minimum to expect. Maybe that means Elias needs new voices in the room and moves on from his friend Sig Mejdal or others. Or maybe it means the introduction of a General Manager that is separate from Elias and his “President of Baseball Operations” title, to at least provide an external perspective, though Elias would still be the lead executive in that scenario. Or they could try another coaching staff churn, though that hasn’t changed much the last couple of seasons.
At the moment, it’s unclear what the plan will be. But what is unquestioned is that the Orioles have burned through what was supposed to be a return to greatness. Elias and his crew have failed at their stated goal of building a perennial winner in Baltimore. They should not be rewarded for that. That may not mean Elias himself has to go, but there absolutely has to be change coming.













