If you’re a Golden State Warriors fan who uses social media, then you’ve probably seen a fairly depressing graphic floating around the internet in one of its many iterations. The images and numbers vary from graphic to graphic, but the point remains the same: there have been countless moves made in the NBA this offseason. And the Warriors are the only team absent from that party.
Technically, the Dubs have made moves, but they’ve been to keep their own players. They re-signed Al Horford. They re-signed Kristaps Porziņģis. They’re planning to re-sign De’Anthony Melton. They re-signed Draymond Green after he opted out to afford them flexibility as they chased LeBron James.
But they haven’t added anyone new, save for in the draft. They put all their eggs in the James basket and came up short. They chose not to pursue costly, star-studded trades for players like Anthony Davis and Jaylen Brown. And while they’ll likely still add someone from outside the organization (though the options are dwindling), it appears they’re content to just run it back with the same squad.
That didn’t work out well last year. The Dubs went just 37-45 and were eliminated in the play-in tournament. Add in the fact that Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody are likely to miss more time this year than last — and of course, the ever-increasing ages of Green, Horford, Porziņģis, and Steph Curry — and it’s reasonable to assume that Golden State will be even worse this year.
But there are always avenues for surprising success. Virtually no one pegged the Warriors to compete for a title in 2014-15 or 2021-22, and they won championships both years. That’s not me predicting that the Dubs will hoist a trophy next June — or even saying that’s a plausible outcome — but the Warriors can still take the world by surprise and have a shockingly good season. Or at least one that’s much better than last year.
How? Here are a few ways.
Yaxel Lendeborg shines
There’s always something fun about the mystery bag that is a draft pick; especially a lottery pick. You can make predictions and projections galore, but ultimately you have no clue what you’re going to get. The Warriors were excited when Curry fell to them with the seventh overall pick 17 years ago, but no one ever expected him to become the best player in franchise history, let alone a top-10 all-time talent. They thought they got Curry a running mate when they used the No. 11 pick on Klay Thompson, and instead got a Hall of Famer. They hoped to get a bench contributor when they took Green in the second round, and wound up with a one of the greatest defensive players in NBA history, who will likely spend the entirety of his Hall of Fame career in the Bay Area.
On the flip side, Golden State thought they had the second timeline locked up when they used back-to-back lottery picks on James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga … it’s only been a few years, but Wiseman is playing overseas and Kuminga remains a free agent with limited suitors.
All of that is to say that there’s a vast spectrum of potential outcomes for Yaxel Lendeborg, the No. 11 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. Lendeborg is, like all rookies, an unknown, but he’s also considered the most NBA-ready player in the rookie class, due to his age (he turns 24 before Opening Night) and experience (six total years of college ball). If he’s closer to great than to awful — and if he hits the ground running — the Warriors could have something special on their hands that will help them win games from Day 1.
A full season of KP is magical
Even though the Warriors haven’t added any free agents or players via trade, it’s still fair to think of Porziņģis as an acquisition. They only got him at the trade deadline last year, and he played just 15 games for the team. Plus, there’s only so much a midseason acquisition can help, as they’re learning the systems on the fly.
Even so, there was some magic in those moments, and the Warriors dramatically benefited from Porziņģis’ presence. Could that grow with a full training camp of learning Steve Kerr’s systems, and getting comfortable playing with Curry and Green on both ends of the court? It certainly can’t hurt. Porziņģis’ All-Star days are probably behind him, but there’s also a reason the Warriors handed him out a two-year, $40-million contract. They know that he can be a very, very good player, and they’re excited to get a full season of that.
They add another good player
Sounds simple enough, right? A lot harder in execution. That said, DeMar DeRozan remains unsigned, and while he’s a kind of funny fit in Golden State’s offensive system, they sure could use his doses of instant offense. The best way to get better is to add more talent. And whether it’s DDR, Bradley Beal, or anyone else, the Warriors at least have a chance to up their talent pool before the season begins. How much it will help remains to be seen. As we’ve all observed in recent years, some additions really hit with the Warriors, and some flop tremendously. But it’s hard to see how this team, which has struggled so much to score when Curry isn’t the player shooting the ball, wouldn’t benefit from the addition of a reliable 20-point scorer.
They upgrade their systems
Seeing what schemes the Warriors are running when the season begins is going to be fascinating. Apparently one of the mandates for Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Joe Lacob when bringing back Kerr was that he needed to find a way to adapt and evolve his systems a little bit more. They’ve made some personnel decisions as well, replacing Terry Stotts and Jerry Stackhouse with Frank Vogel.
Kerr remains one of the top coaches in the NBA, but he’s going to need to dig deep into his bag of tricks to turn the Warriors into a 50-win team. That’s going to include making some changes to how the offense and defense operate.
Someone takes a leap
The biggest way for a team to take a huge step forward is also the hardest thing to bank on: a player simply taking their game to the next level. With Moody injured and so many veterans around, that really means there are only three options: Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, and Will Richard. All three are quality role players, but all three have shown flashes of being so much more. Can one of them take the leap from 15-minute bench piece to borderline All-Star? Easier said than done … but then again, no one ever accused being a winning team of being easy!
Stay healthy
The Warriors have won four championships in recent memory, and they’ve fallen short even more times. And in victory and defeat, one lesson is always clear: it takes a lot of luck to win it all. That’s true even when your goals are less lofty than to win a title. Whatever the goal in the NBA, you need the cookie to crumble in your direction to meet it.
For the Warriors, that mostly means health. Porziņģis played just 32 games last year. Horford played 45. Curry played 43. Melton played 49. If the Warriors want to shock people this season, they need good health luck, particularly with Curry (and also with Butler when he returns from his torn ACL). You can’t bank on that … but you have to hope for it.
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