Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jesus Sanchez is on fire at the plate, and I expect him to continue his hitting streak with Sandy Alcantara on the mound for the Miami Marlins.
Read on to see why with my Jays vs. Marlins predictions and MLB picks on Tuesday, May 26.
Marlins vs Blue Jays predictions
Marlins vs Blue Jays best bet: Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits (-170)
Jesus Sanchez has been the hottest hitter in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, and the books seem to be slowly catching on, but there’s still some juice left to be squeezed at a -170 price.
The Jays outfielder has eclipsed today’s 0.5 hits total in 12 of his last 15 contests, posting a .400 batting average and a 1.032 OPS in that stretch.
As for Sandy Alcantara, he’s been victimized more by left-handed batters, who are hitting .276 against him.
He has also struggled mightily in May, posting a 6.04 ERA this month, with an opponent batting average of .315 while allowing an average of 7.25 hits per outing.
COVERS INTEL: Sandy Alcantara ranks in the 92nd percentile with a .290 xBA.
Marlins vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out of the lineup tonight, I’m banking on Daulton Varsho to step up. The Jays' lefty owns a 59% hard-hit rate against the four-seamer and a .375 average vs. the sinker, two pitches that Alcantara throws often against left-handed hitters.
Ernie Clement is on an eight-game hitting streak, averaging 2.65 bases per game. With a struggling Alcantara on the mound, who pitches to contact, I’ll bet on Clement to keep swinging a hot bat and go Over 1.5 total bases.
Marlins vs Blue Jays SGP
Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
Daulton Varsho 1.5 total bases
Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
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Marlins vs Blue Jays home run pick: Daulton Varsho (+475)
Alcantara has kept the ball in the yard, only allowing two homers over his last six starts, so we’ll make this a half-unit wager.
The Marlins starter gives up fairly hard contact to lefties like Varsho, who have 15 extra base hits off him for a .787 opponent OPS.
2026 Transparency record
Best bets: 25-27, +2.55 units
SGPs: 10-42, -1.60 units
HR picks: 8-44, +1.15 units
Marlins vs Blue Jays odds
Moneyline: Miami +125 | Toronto -150
Run line: Miami +1.5 (-170) | Toronto -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Marlins vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 10 of their last 12 games for +9.4 units and a 59% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Marlins vs Blue Jays and game info
Location
Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date
Tuesday, May 26, 2026
First pitch
7:07 p.m. ET
TV
Marlins.TV, SN1
Marlins starting pitcher
Sandy Alcantara (3-3, 4.00 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher
Braydon Fisher (2-1, 2.73 ERA)
Marlins vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Marlins vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
ATLANTA, GA - APRIL 29: Matt Olson #28 of the Atlanta Braves celebrates during the game between the Detroit Tigers and the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on Wednesday, April 29, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kathryn Skeean/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Alright, so here we are, folks. It’s the day after Memorial Day which is usually the moment in the season where I’d say that it’s safe to start taking whatever’s happening in the standings a bit more seriously. We’re over a quarter of the way deep into this campaign and basically the news is nothing but positive for the Braves as they enter into the Summer portion of the baseball season.
Heading into today’s action, the Braves are 36-18, they have the best record in the National League, they’re tied on percentage for the best record in all of baseball and they’re 8.5 games clear at the top of the NL East, with only the Washington Nationals joining them in the “Over .500” Club at this point in the season.
Whoa. I bet y’all didn’t see any of this coming, now did you? I’ll happily admit that I figured that this team wasn’t going to put on a performance that would have them looking like something closer to what we saw this team do for the second half of 2021 and throughout the 2022 and 2023 seasons as well. “They don’t have enough starting pitching,” I cried. Well, Bryce Elder is looking like a more-improved version of his 2023 version and Martín Pérez has developed into a solid fifth starter while Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and Grant Holmes have all performed as expected The starting rotation is putting up great numbers as a collective (3.02 ERA, 75 ERA-, 4.01 FIP, 102 FIP-) but the bullpen has been just as good as well (3.07 ERA, 76 ERA-, 3.52 FIP, 90 FIP-), combining to make Atlanta’s pitching staff the current ERA and ERA- leaders (3.04 and 91) while also making sure that their FIP is in a position where this doesn’t seem too unsustainable going forward. That’ll do it!
It also helps that the offense has returned to something that looks a whole lot similar to what it looked like back when this team was really clicking. Braves President of Baseball Operations and General Manager Alex Anthopoulos said on multiple occasions during the offseason that he figured that if the Braves were going to bounce back, it would be because of the offense rather than the pitching. It’s almost as if one of the best front office executives in baseball was onto something, huh? Heading into tonight’s game, the Braves are sitting on the third-best team wRC+ in all of baseball (113, only behind the Yankees and the Dodgers), they’re tied for first in batting average (.260) with the Rays, they have a top-10 On-Base Percentage as a team, they lead baseball in slugging (.431) and they only trail the Dodgers in OPS (.755) and wOBA (.334).
Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley have both performed below their respectively lofty expectations and normally that’d be a recipe for disaster. Instead, they’ve just been serving as complimentary pieces to guys like Drake Baldwin (who was absolutely murdering the baseball before going down with an oblique strain), Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II. It also helps that some of the players outside of the core have been coming up big as well. Mauricio Dubón has been an invaluable piece for this team so far, Jorge Mateo and Dominic Smith have been reliable when called upon and we’re starting to get some good stuff from Mike Yastrzemski as well. If Ha-Seong Kim can get going and the Braves can finally play a game with a full-strength lineup at some point, the ceiling for this team figures to be about as tall as Victor Wembanyama.
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to come to the conclusion that if you’re hitting well and pitching well, you’re going to win a whole bunch of ballgames. Fortunately for the Braves (and outside of their most recent woeful series at home against the Nationals), the bad luck that seemingly tripped them up at all times is starting to turn around for Atlanta. As such, the team has played its way into a very comfortable position as far as their outlook for the rest of the season goes.
FanGraphs currently has the Braves winning 94 games and winning the NL East (86 percent chance by their current calculations) by eight games over the Phillies. PECOTA has a similarly rosy outlook for the Braves at the moment (94 wins, 84 percent chance of winning the division) and both Atlanta’s Expected W/L record and Pythagorean Record (both 38-16) suggest that this is no fluke on Atlanta’s part. Pretty much all of the statistics and metrics indicate that the Braves are right where they need to be right now and it’s something that they’re definitely capable of keeping up or even improving upon going forward.
While it’s been a tiny bit concerning to see them benefit greatly from the New Manager Bounce of going from Rob Thomson to Don Mattingly, Philadelphia would have to keep up an astonishingly furious pace all season while the Braves would have to suffer a significant slow down in order to make this even a nervous race for the Braves going forward. I’m not going full Sal Licata and saying that “The NL East is over” because there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played between now and September but it’s totally fair to say that everybody else in this division is going to be spending a lot of time looking up at the Braves while this season is still going on.
So am I saying all of this to say that the Braves are going to be on easy street from now until October? I’d love to say that but I think we all know that baseball is about as unpredictable as a washer when you throw a brick inside of it (for some reason or another) so there’s always a possibility that a nasty surprise here or there could pop up and throw a wrench in things for Atlanta. Despite the good times that the Braves have had so far, they’ve still had some injuries to key players. I mentioned that Drake Baldwin is currently on the IL and it doesn’t help that his fellow catcher Sean Murphy is also on the IL so Atlanta has already had to go deep into their depth chart for catching help at the moment. Ronald Acuña Jr. has had an IL stint recently and we all know how things go for pitchers nowadays where you kind of just have to pray for health and hope for the best.
Still, it’s hard to see how this train gets derailed for the Braves going forward. Sure, they had a woeful series against a Nationals pitching staff that has been one of the absolute worst in all of baseball so far this season but again, that’s just baseball for you! Not everything is going to go as planned and there’s bound to be some slip-ups and drop-offs here and there. With all of that being said, it really does seem like the Braves are back to playing at the level that we’re used to seeing from them.
It’s also fun to think about where the Braves were at this time last year. At the end of the day on May 25, 2025, the Braves were 25-27 and 8.5 games back in the division. After Memorial Day in 2024, they were 30-21 but six games back. They were only up four games in the division after Memorial Day in 2023 but they were actually 9.5 back in 2022! It’s been a good long while since the Braves were in such a comfortable position after crossing the Memorial Day signpost and while the past has shown that the story of this season is far from being complete, it’s clear that the Braves have played themselves into a very good spot to be in now that it’s starting to get really hot outside. Hopefully we’ll see the Braves continue to keep rolling so we’ll have a very fun Summer around here. We’ll see what happens!
LAS VEGAS — When Mark Stone returned to the Golden Knights’ lineup for Game 3 of the Western Conference Final against Colorado, that also meant the return of Vegas’ five-forward power play.
With Stone down low, Mitch Marner shifted to the top in the quarterback role, sending defenseman Shea Theodore to the second unit.
No matter which player is at the top, the Golden Knights’ power play is humming.
Stone’s goal with the man advantage 19 seconds into the second period cut the Avalanche’s lead to 3-1 and sparked a two-period dominance for a 5-3 victory.
“I was lucky enough to find Stoney going backdoor,” Marner said. “From that point on, we just started rolling, the confidence started going a little bit, and everyone started feeling a little better about themselves. We’re a team that doesn’t have any quit in them. We want to make sure every game, regardless of the score, we’re fighting and we’re trying to come back and claw into it.”
And now the Golden Knights, who won the championship three years ago, are one victory from making their third Stanley Cup Final in their nine seasons.
The power play has been a big part of that success. Vegas has scored on it in seven of the past eight games and is converting on a 25% rate for the playoffs, highest among the four remaining teams.
This isn’t just a small sample size, either. The Golden Knights ranked sixth in the regular season at 24.6%.
“We feel confident no matter who is on the ice,” wing Pavel Dorofeyev said. “We’re just trying to do our best to help the team to take advantage of the power play.”
No one took advantage more than Dorofeyev, who smashed the team record with 20 power-play goals in the regular season, topping the 14 that Tomas Hertl had just a year ago. Dorofeyev has four such goals this postseason, tied with Stone and the Canadiens’ Juraj Slafkovský.
Golden Knights coach John Tortorella wouldn’t discuss the intricacies of going with the highly unusual five-forward look, but it’s a formation he largely inherited from previous coach Bruce Cassidy, who employed that look often this season.
Both coaches probably saw what they had in Marner, who also filled the quarterback role when he played in Toronto when the Maple Leafs tried five forwards.
Other teams have run the five-forward look as well. The New York Rangers tried it this season, Los Angeles and Minnesota used it last year, and Florida and Montreal experimented with it in 2022.
But it’s hardly the go-to formation. The vast majority of teams still prefer four forwards with a defenseman patrolling the top. That player is Theodore when the Golden Knights use that scheme.
But now Theodore appears as if he will be at that spot on the second unit as the Golden Knights look to advance to the sport’s championship series.
To get there, they likely will need their power play to come through again.
“I think the fourth win is always the hardest to get, whether it’s a first round, second round or conference final,” Theodore said. “We’re going to expect their best. For them, it’s win or go home. We have to match that intensity from the start.”
LAS VEGAS — Just when the Avalanche got back reigning Norris Trophy winner Cale Makar, Colorado might be without Hart Trophy finalist Nathan MacKinnon.
Or, at least, will have a highly limited MacKinnon, which was what he was after taking a puck to his right knee in 5-3 loss in Game 3 to the Vegas Golden Knights.
It’s been that kind of series for the Avalanche, the Presidents’ Trophy winners going down 3-0 in the Western Conference Final. With the possibility of being swept, coach Jared Bednar will take MacKinnon in any form he can get him.
“For him to be able to come back out, get some work done late in the second period and intermission and be able to come out and even help us on the power play and empty-net situations, if that’s all he can do, we’ll take it,” Bednar said. “It’s better than anything else, in my opinion, we can put on the ice.”
That comment could get plenty of attention in the Avalanche locker room, but as it is, the Golden Knights have Colorado’s full focus.
The odds might have been in the Avalanche’s favor before the series began — the team with the league’s best record going against one so desperate to make the playoffs that it fired its coach with eight games remaining — but not now.
The numbers, in fact, are daunting.
This is the 50th time in the conference finals or league semifinals that a series has gone to 3-0. All previous 49 teams with that advantage went on to make the Stanley Cup Final, with 47 ending the series in six games or fewer.
Only four teams have erased 3-0 deficits in any round. Los Angeles in 2014 was the most recent team to accomplish that in eliminating San Jose in their first-round series.
And then there’s the so-called Presidents’ Trophy curse. Chicago in 2013 was the last team to claim that and the Stanley Cup in the same season. Colorado already had firsthand knowledge of the difficulty of pulling off the double, winning the Presidents’ Trophy in the 2021 COVID-shortened season before going out in six games in the second round ... to the Golden Knights.
“There’s going to be a sense of urgency, but it’s got to be smart urgency,” defenseman Josh Manson said. “It’s got to be desperation. It’s got to be our best style of play the whole night. You’ve got to maintain that sense of do or die, while playing up to the edge. That’s what makes it so difficult.
“The margin of error is so thin now, and you’ve got to be able to balance that for at least 12 periods.”
It will take at least that many periods for the Avalanche to accomplish what no other team has done this deep into the playoffs. They will have to play like the team that looked like the NHL’s best for six months and then the first two rounds of the playoffs when they went 8-1.
“We know where we’re at,” wing Martin Necas said. “We know it doesn’t happen very often, but we still feel confident in this group. It’s not like we’ve been outplayed every game and their team is better than ours. We had a lot of stretches this season where we won four in a row. So we just focus on the next game and take it home and anything can happen.”
Getting it back to Denver for Game 5 would be a start.
“Our team’s played with more intensity and more desperation as the series (has) gone on,” Bednar said. “Hasn’t worked out for us yet. I think with the hill to climb, it’s definitely a tough one. It just doesn’t happen very often, and we’re certainly understanding of that, but I think we have a lot of pride and a lot of character in our room that displayed that time over time throughout the course of the year,
“This will be our most difficult challenge, but I believe that we will show up and we will be ready to play.”
The Boston Bruins had a successful 2025-26 NHL season during which they earned 100 points (45-27-10) and made it back to the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Unfortunately for the B’s, that postseason run was short lived as the Original Six franchise lost to the Buffalo Sabres in a six-game first-round series.
Now it’s time for general manager Don Sweeney to make the necessary roster improvements over the offseason to ensure the team takes another step forward in its development in the 2026-27 campaign.
Sweeney has a pretty good war chest of assets to use in pursuit of roster upgrades. The Bruins have a decent amount of salary cap space, five first-round picks in the next three drafts and an improved prospect pool.
Here’s a quick recap of the key offseason dates that fans should circle on their calendars:
May 31: 2026 NHL Scouting Combine
Every team will get an up-close look at the top prospects in the 2026 draft class at the scouting combine in Buffalo. The event wraps up June 6.
June 26-27: 2026 NHL Draft
The first round of the 2026 NHL Draft will take place Friday, June 26 beginning at 7 p.m. ET at the KeyBank Center in Buffalo. Rounds two through seven are scheduled for Saturday, June 27 starting at 11 a.m. ET.
The Bruins have the No. 23 overall pick in the first round.
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June 29: Bruins Development Camp
The Bruins’ annual development camp showcases the team’s best prospects. It’s also a good opportunity to watch the team’s new draft picks compete against their peers throughout the organization.
July 1: NHL free agency begins
The free agent market opens at noon ET.
The Bruins have about $15.4 million in salary cap space right now, per PuckPedia. This year’s class of unrestricted free agents is pretty weak, but there are a couple good players who could be available, including top-six forward Alex Tuch and defenseman Darryn Raddysh.
Bruins Rookie Camp begins on Friday, Sept. 11. It’s an opportunity for these young players to begin building their case to be considered for an Opening Night roster spot.
September 16: Bruins training camp begins
Training camp kicks off on Wednesday, Sept. 16 at Warrior Ice Arena in Brighton, Mass. It will be the Bruins’ second training camp under head coach Marco Sturm.
Debating whether the Western Conference Finals are the “real” NBA Finals doesn’t really matter— the New York Knicks are waiting either way.
For now, just soak in what’s become a must-watch series between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder.
With things knotted at 2-2, Game 5 could swing everything. These Spurs vs. Thunder props and NBA picks expect the stars to set the tone, but both Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama will need meaningful support to take control on Tuesday, May 26.
Best Spurs vs Thunder props for Game 5
Player
Pick
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Over 7.5 assists
-130
Victor Wembanyama
Over 3.5 assists
+100
Jared McCain
Over 11.5 points
-115
Game 5 Prop #1: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 assists
Changing defensive looks have left the Oklahoma City Thunder star unsure when to look for his own shot. Of course, Victor Wembanyama’s paint presence doesn't help SGA’s cause.
After taking 23 and 24 shots in the first two games of this series, respectively, Gilgeous-Alexander attempted only 17 and 15 in Games 3 and 4.
That wasn't a result of playing on the road. That was a result of San Antonio’s defense.
To his credit, Shai has kept the ball moving. He has fallen short of this prop in just one game this series, missing by only the hook in Game 4 while averaging 10 assists per game across the four contests.
A basketball intellect should enjoy watching SGA and the Thunder navigate a series where his ball-dominance can't be counted on. A basketball bettor should profit on that reality.
Game 5 Prop #2: Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 assists
Full disclosure: This bet was not on the radar until finalizing that Gilgeous-Alexander assists prop. Seeing Victor Wembanyama’s assists prop not only still at 3.5 but also priced at even money made this an immediate bet.
Wembanyama is not known for his playmaking, yet he has dished out at least three assists in each game of this series while clearing this prop twice. That sentence alone reveals the value in this sitting at +100.
The Thunder should throw big bodies at Wembanyama as this series reaches its peak in an attempt to wear him down. Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein, and even Jaylin Williams can have their cumulative effect.
But in that process, Oklahoma City risks Wembanyama’s underrated vision.
Game 5 Prop #3: Jared McCain Over 11.5 points
Role players shoot better at home. This is a known and tried axiom in the postseason, one that consistently provides betting value.
Consulting Jared McCain’s home/road splits from this season gets murky, given he was traded halfway through it, and one may wonder when he felt comfortable in Oklahoma City.
However, simply look at his postseason. McCain has shot 46.5% from the field at home this postseason compared to 39.2% from the field on the road. He has hit 13-of-25 (52.0%) from beyond the arc at home compared to 6-of-26 (23.1%) on the road.
McCain caught attention in Game 3 with his 24 points, but his four points in Game 4 seem to have quickly diminished expectations.
With Jalen Williams unlikely to play, McCain will both need to play and need to handle the ball. Given his better shooting in familiar confines, those necessities should work out for the Thunder.
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We're double-dipping on a West Coast matchup today, highlighting our favorite MLB picks for today's slate.
Read on to see why our baseball experts like both a side and a total in the Mariners/Athletics matchup — along with several other top picks for Tuesday.
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Josh Inglis' expert pick: Mariners/Athletics Over 9.5
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
Bettors saw five home runs yesterday at Sutter Health Park, and that kind of output could show up again today with Ballpark Pal grading it as the best park on the slate for both home runs and run scoring. Luis Severino has struggled to navigate the park this season, carrying a 5.55 ERA and 2.2 HR/9 at home, compared to just 0.5 HR/9 on the road. Seattle Mariners starter Emerson Hancock also brings some red flags, ranking in the Bottom-20 among qualified starters in HR/FB rate, plus his xERA suggests his current 3.07 ERA could be headed in the wrong direction — after posting an ERA near 5.00 last season. THE BAT, still the best projection model in the industry, has this as the highest-scoring game on the slate with 11.23 projected runs and a fair price of -188 on Over 9.5, making it one of the best +EV sides on the board today.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
How to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM
Neil Parker's expert pick: Athletics moneyline
Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket
The Athletics have beat up on righties, to the tune of a second-ranked OPS and third-ranked wOBA, and Seattle RHP Emerson Hancock has surrendered a healthy 44.2% hard-hit rate, while also sporting an unsustainable 83.3% strand rate. Hancock has also been more vulnerable away from pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, allowing a .355 wOBA with a 5.12 ERA across 96 2/3 career innings on the road. Additionally, Luis Severino has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his past six starts, while spinning a solid 2.92 ERA and 3.09 xERA.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
How to watch: NBCSCA, SEAM
Joe Osborne's expert pick: Twins moneyline
Price: 52¢ (-108) at Polymarket
Minnesota Twins starter Joe Ryan has been dominant in May, posting a 1.47 ERA while allowing just 10 hits over 18 1/3 innings of work. Meanwhile, Sean Burke has hit a wall for Chicago, with a 5.59 ERA this month, and the White Sox have dropped six of his last eight starts. Minnesota also owns a massive bullpen edge, ranking 2nd in ERA over the past two weeks — compared to Chicago sitting at 27th. The offenses are closer, but the Twins are still the hotter lineup entering this game.
Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
How to watch: CHSN, MNNT
Jon Metler's expert pick: Diamondbacks moneyline
Price: 50¢ (+100) at Polymarket
There’s no reason the Arizona Diamondbacks should be trading near 50 cents against the San Francisco Giants in this matchup. I make Arizona closer to 56-cent favorites, which gives us solid value at the current price.
This is also a difficult offensive setup for San Francisco. The Giants already struggle to generate consistent offense, and facing left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez only complicates things further. The lefty-lefty matchup neutralizes a lot of the impact from key bats like Rafael Devers and Luis Arraez.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s lineup is in a great spot. Ketel Marte is swinging a hot bat, while Corbin Carroll is one of the best gap hitters in baseball and an ideal fit for the spacious alleys at Oracle Park.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
I'm hoping this hot weather breaks this cold snap I'm on.
I'm still targeting hot hitters this week for home runs and MLB player props, and even going back-to-back in some spots at better prices in better spots.
Baltimore is a strong place to look for home runs, and Yandy Diaz's prices may not stay north of +650 for long if he keeps slugging at this level. I'm also backing two bats, led by Julio Rodriguez, at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park.
These are my favorite home run props for Tuesday, May 26.
UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
Player to hit a HR
Odds
Yandy Diaz
+670
Randy Arozarena
+600
Julio Rodriguez
+448
💲Today's HR parlay
+20900
Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+670)
I'm not getting next-day theoried today with Yandy Díaz, who I'm getting at a better number than yesterday and is still grading as +EV, per the projections at Covers.
Over the last two weeks, he has been one of the best bats in baseball, ranking seventh in slugging and third in BlastContact%. He’s ripping extra-base hits right now with six over his last five games and gets a great matchup in a favorable park today.
Oriole Park grades as the No. 4 home run environment on the slate, per Ballpark Pal, and Shane Baz is a strong target for dingers.
The Baltimore right-hander just saw this Tampa lineup in his last start, so the familiarity edge shifts to the hitters in today’s matchup. He has allowed a home run in seven of his last starts and ranks in the bottom 50 among starters in BlastContact% and HR/FB rate over the last 30 days.
This is a buy to +600.
Time: 6:35 p.m. ET
Where to watch: MASN, Rays.TV
Home run pick: Randy Arozarena (+600)
Sutter Health Park is once again grading as the best home run environment on the slate today, per Ballpark Pal.
The wind is blowing out, and the pitching matchup is better than it may look at first glance, as Luis Severino has been hit hard there and the splits back it up. The Athletics starter owns a 2.2 HR/9 in Sacramento compared to just 0.94 HR/9 on the road.
Six of his eight home runs allowed have come in that minor-league park.
Seattle clubbed four home runs yesterday and could leave the yard multiple times again vs. Severino and the bullpen, as no team in baseball has allowed a higher HR/9 at home than the Athletics.
Randy Arozarena at +600 is my target with a fair price of +530, per the projections at Covers. The right-handed hitter ranks 10th in slugging and 15th in BlastContact% over the last 14 days and is one of just six hitters inside the Top 15 in both categories during that stretch.
He went deep yesterday and added a double, and now owns a .299/.390/.477 slash line on the season.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV
Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+448)
I'm running it back with Julio Rodriguez in what projects as the best home run-hitting environment on the board today. This is a spot that graded out as +EV at +360 in a similar setup yesterday.
This is easily the best HR park on the slate today, and Luis Severino has struggled, like most starters, in this minor-league park. His HR/FB rate ranks in the Bottom 25 among MLB starters, and that number is even worse at home.
J-Rod didn’t go deep yesterday, but he entered that game slugging .667 over his last seven days with two home runs. Luke Raley at +350 was a consideration as a left-handed alternative, but J-Rod at this price is the stronger look.
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where to watch: NBCSCA, Mariners.TV
Josh Inglis' 2026 Transparency Record
HR picks: 13-91, -23.94 units
Today’s HR parlay
Yandy Diaz
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Randy Arozarena
Julio Rodriguez
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The 2026 Western Conference Finals return to Oklahoma City on Tuesday, May 26 for a pivotal Game 5, with the series now tied 2-2 after San Antonio seized momentum with a commanding Game 4 win. The Thunder also still face the possibility of being without star forward Jalen Williams for Tuesday's game.
Williams remains questionable for the critical matchup against the Spurs due to a lingering left hamstring strain, which has already kept him out of the last two games. His absence looms large for Oklahoma City, as Williams averaged a little over 28 minutes and 17 points per game during the regular season.
The Thunder, who will already be missing key reserve Ajay Mitchell tonight, are hoping to rebound from a tough 102-82 defeat to the Spurs on Sunday, May 24. Oklahoma City's offense struggled to find rhythm, resulting in a postseason-low point total. San Antonio sensation Victor Wembanyama was a dominant force, posting an impressive 33 points, eight rebounds, five assists and three blocks in the decisive victory.
Following Game 5 in Oklahoma City, the series will shift back to San Antonio for Game 6 on Thursday, May 28.
Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs will start at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. It will be broadcast on NBC and available for streaming on Peacock.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 26: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers celebrates with Andy Pages #44 after scoring off of a sacrifice fly during the first inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs at Dodger Stadium on April 26, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ryan Sirius Sun/Getty Images) | Getty Images
As we’ve done for the better part of two decades, we like to take a look at each season in 54-game chunks, seeing how players seasons are put together. For now, we just have the first third of the season to go on, so we’re not necessarily comparing players to themselves. But on a team level, the Dodgers are on pace for 102 wins, and have won at least 32 of their first 54 games for eight years in a row.
Year
W-L
RS-RA
Run diff.
BA/OBP/SLG
wRC+*
ERA
ERA-
2026
34-20
279-171
+108
.258/.344/.427
119
3.10
78
2025
33-21
301-237
+64
.263/.341/.458
124
4.05
101
2024
33-21
269-197
+72
.255/.335/.430
120
3.40
86
2023
32-22
298-248
+50
.239/.328/.455
113
4.50
106
2022
35-19
290-177
+113
.251/.333/.428
116
2.91
73
2021
32-22
282-209
+73
.242/.338/.414
113
3.25
86
2020
38-16
312-193
+119
.255/.337/.472
120
3.08
72
2019
36-18
294-211
+83
.261/.349/.460
118
3.51
85
2018
25-29
231-213
+18
.237/.316/.393
103
3.63
94
2017
33-21
271-185
+86
.258/.340/.428
112
3.20
77
2016
28-26
230-195
+35
.238/.309/.374
92
3.38
85
2015
31-23
245-195
+50
.261/.339/.450
128
3.44
92
2014
29-25
231-191
+40
.257/.324/.415
119
3.48
100
2013
23-31
193-229
-36
.257/.327/.375
100
3.88
108
The Dodgers allowed only 171 runs so far this season, fewest in MLB at 3.17 per game. It’s the fewest runs allowed by the Dodgers through 54 games since 1989. The plus-108 run differential is the Dodgers’ third-best through 54 games since 2013, the start of their streak of postseason appearances.
Now let’s look at the individual players.
Players
Starts
PA
H-2B-HR
R/RBI
BB-SO
BA/OBP/SLG
wRC+
Smith
37+1
170
36-3-4
18/20
17-28
.242/.318/.342
90
Rushing
17+5
91
21-2-7
14/17
8-24
.263/.352/.550
154
Catchers
54
261
57-5-11
32/37
25-52
.249/.330/.415
Will Smith’s numbers are down across the board. Dalton Rushing got off to a scorching hot start, with seven home runs in his first 28 plate appearances. Rushing also started three games at designated hitter and two at first base. Those games are counted in his numbers above, as is Smith’s lone start at DH.
Players
Starts
PA
2B-3B-HR
R/RBI
SB-CS
BB-SO
BA/OBP/SLG
wRC+
Ohtani
0-0-49
234
12-1-8
34/29
6-2
39-52
.273/.403/.476
147
Tucker
0-51-0
224
14-2-4
35/26
4-0
30-42
.246/.348/.403
116
Freeman
51-0-0
222
15-1-6
24/24
2-0
29-37
.260/.360/.443
129
Pages
0-53-0
219
10-0-11
30/46
6-1
15-44
.286/.338/.503
136
T. Hernández
0-48-1
200
8-0-7
29/31
2-0
19-54
.277/.350/.441
124
Muncy
47-0-0
190
6-0-12
36/19
0-0
26-49
.258/.363/.515
148
Kim
36-0-0
127
3-1-1
15/10
5-1
12-30
.257/.325/.327
89
Freeland
31-0-0
112
4-0-2
11/8
0-0
11-32
.235/.309/.337
86
Rojas
19-0-0
89
3-0-1
7/8
0-1
5-9
.256/.310/.333
84
Betts
19-0-0
87
2-0-4
11/10
0-2
6-10
.165/.230/.342
60
Call
0-10-0
58
4-0-0
11/9
0-1
10-7
.304/.431/.391
143
Espinal
9-0-0
44
3-0-1
4/4
0-0
1-6
.220/.238/.366
67
Ward
1-0-0
6
0-0-0
0/1
0-0
0-1
.333/.333/.333
90
K. Hernández
1-0-0
2
1-0-0
0/1
0-0
0-0
1.000/1.000/2.500
629
Position
1,812
75-5-57
247/226
25-8
203-373
.260/.347/.422
Starts above are listed as infield-outfield-DH
The Dodgers offense feels underwhelming, but in reality they lead the majors in wRC+ (119) and on-base percentage (.344), rank third in runs scored (5.17 per game), and are top five in the majors in home runs, slugging percentage, walk rate, and lowest strikeout rate. That’s a testament to the depth, even with injuries and few individual starts standing out.
Andy Pages is the breakout star thus far, providing excellent defense in center field with a 136 wRC+ and leading the majors in RBI. Max Muncy is having one of his best seasons. Kyle Tucker has been above average but not spectacularly so.
Tommy Edman hasn’t yet played this season. Mookie Betts missed 32 games with an oblique injury, and has been quite bad when he’s played so far. Alex Freeland and Hyeseong Kim filled in, combining for 67 starts in the middle infield, and while their defense was quite good, the offense was below average. Same for veteran Miguel Rojas.
Watch out if Kiké Hernández can keep up this blistering pace though.
Shohei Ohtani is at worst the Dodgers’ second-best hitter thus far, and while it feels silly to complain about a 147 wRC+, he’s coming off three years of a collective 177 wRC+ and 153 home runs. So far, Ohtani only has eight home runs a third of the way through this year. His 2026 offensive production is more in line with his 2021-22 with the Angels, his first two seasons fully unleashed as a two-way player when he had a 146 wRC+. Imagine getting that kind of — again, still stellar — offense from someone who’s also on pace for nearly 150 innings of Cy Young Award-caliber pitching.
Pitcher
G-QS
W-L
IP
R-ER
BB-SO
ERA
WHIP
xERA
Yamamoto
10-8
4-4
64.0
23-22
13-59
3.09
0.984
3.80
Wrobleski
9-5
6-2
55.7
19-19
14-31
3.07
1.114
4.08
Sheehan
10-4
3-1
51.7
27-27
14-59
4.70
1.239
3.86
Ohtani
8-7
4-2
49.0
6-4
13-54
0.73
0.837
2.39
Sasaki
9-2
3-3
45.7
26-25
18-43
4.93
1.423
4.94
Glasnow
7-4
3-0
39.7
12-12
13-49
2.72
0.832
2.47
Snell
1-0
0-1
3.0
5-4
2-5
12.00
2.667
3.70
Starters
54-30
23-13
308.7
118-113
87-300
3.29
1.089
3.60
Ohtani has allowed only six runs in his eight starts, and has not allowed multiple runs in any of his 49 innings to date.
The rotation was incredibly stable for the Dodgers until roughly the last two weeks, after injuries to Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell. Outside of one bullpen game, the Dodgers used only seven starting pitchers in the first third of the season, with six pitchers accounting for 52 starts. Dodgers pitchers have 30 quality starts, most in the majors.
Justin Wrobleski made one bulk relief appearance of four innings on March 30, but the vast majority of his time was as a starter, and his stat line above reflects his full season to date. Similarly, Will Klein was the first pitcher of a bullpen game on May 15 in Anaheim, but that is included with the relief numbers below.
Pitcher
G
W-L, Sv
IP
R-ER
BB-SO
ERA
WHIP
xERA
Scott
23
1-1, 4
21.7
3-3
3-25
1.25
0.600
2.76
Vesia
23
1-1, 2
18.7
5-5
9-25
2.41
0.964
2.42
Treinen
21
1-1, 1
16.7
6-6
6-16
3.24
1.320
6.27
Dreyer
20
2-1
21.7
5-5
6-24
2.08
0.969
2.73
Henriquez
18
2-0
19.3
9-7
8-18
3.26
1.034
2.54
Klein
17
1-2, 1
22.3
5-5
6-25
2.01
1.075
2.49
Hurt
16
1-0
16.0
2-2
4-19
1.13
0.875
2.33
Díaz
7
1-0, 4
6.0
7-7
5-10
10.50
2.333
4.42
Gervase
5
0-0
5.0
1-1
2-5
1.80
1.400
3.74
Casparius
5
0-1
4.7
5-5
4-4
9.64
2.143
6.26
Eder
4
1-0
4.0
1-1
1-1
2.25
1.000
9.91
Mills
4
0-0
3.3
3-3
7-1
8.10
3.000
7.82
Stewart
2
0-0
2.0
0-0
1-3
0.00
0.500
1.54
Hernández
2
0-0
2.0
0-0
0-1
0.00
0.000
1.22
Barnes
2
0-0
2.0
0-0
1-1
0.00
1.000
3.85
McDermott
1
0-0
1.0
0-0
0-1
0.00
1.000
1.90
Rojas
1
0-0
1.0
1-1
1-0
9.00
2.000
6.15
Bullpen
168
11-7, 12
167.3
53-51
64-179
2.74
1.094
3.27
The depth has again shone through, especially with Edwin Díaz getting surgery after only six innings with the Dodgers. Tanner Scott has looked like the dominant reliever the Dodgers signed two offseasons ago, while Will Klein, Kyle Hurt, and Edgardo Henriquez have worked their way up the trust tree.
Dodgers relievers really picked up the slack of late amid heavier usage, going from the eighth inning on May 12 through May 24 without allowing a run. The bullpen’s streak of 38 (but spiritually 40) consecutive scoreless innings is the longest in modern franchise history.
That’s our look at the first third of the Dodgers 2026 season. We’ll be back in two months to see how the middle portion went.
The New York Islanders continue to have questions surrounding their goaltending situation as the calendar grows closer to June.
The Islanders ran with the tandem of Ilya Sorokin and David Rittich for the 2025-26 season, with Semyon Varlamov continuing to rehab from double knee replacements.
Obviously, the questions don't have anything to do with Sorokin. He's the starting goaltender, coming off a Vezina-worthy season in which Sorokin was named a finalist.
The question remains who will be the Islanders' backup goalie next year, and whether pending free agent Rittich will return.
According to Stefen Rosner, the door hasn't been closed on a reunion with Rittich, despite Varlamov's progress:
Re pending UFA G David Rittich:
The sense I get is that #Isles haven’t completely shut the door on bringing him back.
It sounds like they'll continue monitoring Semyon Varlamov's rehab process before making a decision.
Rittich is coming off a 1-year deal worth $1 million.
Rittich, 33, started 28 games for the Islanders, posting an .894 save percentage (SV%) along with a 2.76 goals against average (GAA).
The Czech netminder started the year on fire, having an elite front half of the season, but as the year wore on into late January, Rittich's form dipped, as did the Islanders in front of him.
Rittich signed a one-year, $1 million contract on July 1, 2025, with the Islanders.
Varlamov has not appeared in an NHL game since late November 2024, having undergone double knee replacement surgery, and rehabbing ever since.
Th grizzled veteran ended up starting two rehab games for the Bridgeport Islanders, in which Varlamov had a .939 SV% and a 1.50 GAA.
Varlamov's journey has easily become one of the most inspiring stories in all of hockey, now he's one strong summer of healing and recovering away from a surreal NHL return.
“We have so much respect for him. Not just me. From every single guy in this room. Even through the tough times, still trying to get back. Nothing but respect to Varly.” — David Rittich #Isles@TheElmontershttps://t.co/LQu7UcjJXr
If the Islanders feel comfortable with where Varlamov's at come the end of June, it's likely Rittich walks and the Islanders sign a veteran third-stringer as the backup plan for Varlamov:
A look at the pending UFA goalie market for the #Isles — options for a No. 2 behind Sorokin, plus veteran names who could fill the No. 3 role @TheElmonters ⤵️https://t.co/NOG7TobuAJ
BROOKLYN, NY - JUNE 26: Bob Myers looks on during the 2025 NBA Draft - Round Two on June 26, 2025 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
It’s been a minute, friends.
After some time to digest things, I’m back with a mailbag. We’ll make this a weekly thing again now that the Sixers’ offseason is in full swing — with a lot of business to attend to.
The most important first step for the Sixers is finding a new president of basketball operations. It appears Bob Myers has narrowed it down to four reported candidates — Mike Gansey (GM, Cleveland Cavaliers), Matt Lloyd (GM, Minnesota Timberwolves), Nick U’Ren (GM, Phoenix Mercury (WNBA)) and Jameer Nelson, the only internal candidate.
The positive, in my humble opinion, is there are no retreads on this list. Myers appears to be targeting people behind the curtain who are due for a turn running their own team. Nelson feels least likely, but all indications suggest he will have a large role in the organization, no matter who gets the POBO role. The three external candidates seem to have good track records as far as scouting, something the Sixers desperately need either for their current roster or their eventual rebuild.
As far as the current playoffs, the New York Knicks have already emphatically punched their ticket to the Finals while the WCF return to Oklahoma tied at 2-2. Anything you’re gleaning from the playoffs? Feeling better or worse about the current Sixers?
The NBA Draft is also less than a month away. The Sixers have the 22nd overall pick and need as much depth as possible. We’re going to start our prospect previews in earnest next week, but I’ve been cramming, so hit me with any of your draft questions!
Mar 19, 2026; Portland, OR, USA; BYU Cougars forward AJ Dybantsa (3) drives against Texas Longhorns forward Nic Codie (10) in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images
The 2026 NBA Draft is coming up in less than a month. And with the Washington Wizards holding the No. 1 pick, they have a chance to get a true franchise player for the rest of the 2020s into the 2030s. The consensus No. 1 pick is former Brigham Young star AJ Dybantsa. And here, let’s be DMV Dybantsa-stans for a second and say why he is the perfect franchise player for Washington.
Dybantsa fits the prototype of a future superstar scoring wing
The league has increasingly revolved around big perimeter creators. Teams spend years tanking and rebuilding, hoping to find a player like this. Dybantsa projects as a 6’8″-6’9″ wing who can create offense, defend multiple positions, and eventually carry an offense late in games. Washington has not had perimeter talent of that caliber in …. a long time.
Yes, John Wall was an elite floor general. Yes, Gilbert Arenas was elite offensively in the 2000s. But the Wizards need someone who has the potential to be a future Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic or even Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Dybantsa is the prospect closest to reaching that level of potential.
If Dybantsa reaches even 80 percent of his ceiling, the Wizards suddenly have the most important asset in the NBA right now: a true franchise wing.
The Wizards desperately need star power and marketability
As you know, the NBA brought back John Tesh to play “Roundball Rock,” not to show Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen dominate with the Chicago Bulls. Now, it’s to show LeBron James, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Victor Wembanyama dominate with their teams.
How many times did you hear “Roundball Rock” every two minutes on WRC-TV, our local NBC station show Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly? None.
It’s not just that the Wizards were bad in 2025-26. The Wizards have been systemically bad or irrelevant. Remember 2013-14 when the Wizards made the playoffs? Sure the playoff games were on national TV, but during the regular season? They had NO games on ESPN or TNT. So it shouldn’t be surprising that the Wizards are left out of a lot of national TV games when they have:
0 conference finals appearances since 1979
0 50-win seasons since 1979
Poor attendance and weak national TV relevance compared to similar large NBA markets
A true superstar changes revenue, ticket sales, jersey sales, sponsorships, and national relevance. If Dybantsa becomes a 25-points-per-game caliber scorer, that changes the entire trajectory of the franchise for the next decade. And we’ll get to see John Tesh play his song at Capital One Arena too.
The Wizards are probably drafting Dybantsa anyway
Well, let’s look at the betting market with our partners at FanDuel. Remember to play responsibly.
Anyway, when we are looking at who could win the NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder, the San Antonio Spurs and the Eastern Conference Champion New York Knicks, the Thunder, Spurs and Knicks all have a wing player in Gilgeous-Alexander, Wembanyama and Jalen Brunson, respectively, who Dybantsa could be like in the future.
Hopefully, Dybantsa isn’t a late bloomer like Brunson. And yeah, the Thunder are the favorites per FanDuel’s odds. We should be seeing odds on the Wizards’ selection at No. 1 as we get closer to the NBA Draft itself. And if those odds were out there, they’d still say that if the draft was right now, Dybantsa is playing for Washington this fall given what most NBA draft gurus are thinking.
Now, this is just one piece singing praises to Dybantsa. There are three players whom the Wizards COULD pick at No. 1. So, let me ask you all. Do you think Dybantsa fits the perfect franchise player profile for Washington? Let us know in the comments below.
May 25, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) shoots in the first quarter against the New York Knicks during game four of the eastern conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images
CLEVELAND — There were stretches throughout the postseason when Donovan Mitchell didn’t quite look himself. The burst and explosiveness to the basket weren’t there like we’ve become accustomed to in the past. So much so that it led to commentators speculating that maybe he was injured.
Mitchell has been asked repeatedly throughout the postseason about whether he was injured. He’d shrug the questions off every time. He was asked again after the Cleveland Cavaliers’ season-ending Game 4 loss to the New York Knicks, and his answer was mostly the same.
“Everybody’s beat up,” Mitchell said after scoring 31 points. “Everybody’s got something. It is what it is. I looked fine today, right? So if you’re out there between those lines, it doesn’t really matter. I’m fine.”
Anything bought from the links helps support Fear the Sword. You can also shop all of Homage’s Cavs gear HERE. The link to the Donovan Mitchell NBA Jam shirt is HERE.
With the season over, there’s no reason to try to cover up a possible injury. It’s worth taking Mitchell at his word when he says this.
Mitchell has pointed to himself and the team being worn down after the previous two losses. That’s something that they could’ve avoided.
“The two series before having to go seven, that’s our fault, we did that to ourselves,” Mitchell said. “That puts you in a tough position against a team that’s not only been to the conference finals, knows what that takes, but also has the rest, mental preparation, and then on top of that, having Game 1 happen, and we didn’t execute, that’s on us, and we couldn’t control that, that’s what happened.”
Mitchell also noted that there’s a “mental toughness” that’s needed to play their best this late in the playoffs. “Physically, we’re all beat up, everybody’s beat up.” The issue was the “mental focus” not being there at times, which led to costly turnovers.
Mitchell and this Cavs group achieved more playoff success than they have at any point in the past eight years. However, that success also showed how much farther this group needs to go if they want to be the ones lifting a trophy on their home floor.
KANSAS CITY, MO - MAY 07: Maikel Garcia #11 of the Kansas City Royals is thrown out at third base in the fifth inning of an MLB game between the Cleveland Guardians and Kansas City Royals on May 7, 2026 at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
In baseball, there is only one finite resource. We can argue endlessly about which is more exciting, a perfectly executed bunt single or a smash through the hole, a triple or a home run. But none of that matters for winning games as much as managing that one resource as effectively as humanly possible.
Outs.
In 2005, there were 1620 sacrifice bunts. In 2025, there were only 560. Some of that is because pitchers stopped hitting after 2021, but that just goes to emphasize the point more. If you don’t already have an automatic out at the plate, a sacrifice is a bad baseball play. An extra base is almost never worth an out.
Need more evidence? Check out these run expectancy matrices. Runner at first with no outs? That averaged 0.87 runs in 2025. But a runner at second with one out? 0.67 runs. The numbers are similar the entire way across the matrix. Giving up an out for a base always reduces the number of runs you can expect to score every time. This makes sense if you think about it logically, too. A sacrifice bunt means sacrificing an opportunity to add another runner to the bases or to even drive in the run(s) in that plate appearance. There are an infinite number of bases to be gained in a 9-inning baseball game, but only ever 27 outs.
This goes beyond sacrifice bunts, though. The biggest revelation of the Moneyball Athletics teams was that OBP is more valuable than batting average. How can that be when a hit might be more than a single, but a walk only ever gets you to first base? Because a walk still represents not giving up an out. As long as you still have outs, you’ve still got a chance to win a game. Not giving them away is, therefore, the most important thing. But the Royals, even as they seem to be more analytically inclined than in years past, still don’t seem to get this.
Let me post a quote from an answer given by manager Matt Quatraro during a recent post-game press conference (emphasis mine):
[…] Our offense has to be predicated on some of the aggressiveness on the bases and sometimes you’re going to make those outs.
The Royals have used statistical analysis to determine that bringing in the fences would likely help the team play better. They spent the off-season chasing players with good on-base percentages, which has led to a team OBP of .313 – the highest they’ve had since 2015. But their analytic abilities seem to falter when it comes to the value of an extra base compared to an out despite the fact that run expectancy matrices have existed since before the Royals were even a team.
Earlier in that quote, Quatraro pointed out that the Royals don’t hit bunches of home runs. This misses the point badly. Because every time you make an out on the bases, it represents one fewer plate appearance the team can take in that inning and the entire game. The 2015 Royals had an unofficial slogan of “keep the line moving” because they also didn’t hit home runs, but they didn’t make terrible outs on the basepaths and so were able to keep getting on base and eventually force those runners home. But, hey, fewer plate appearances also means fewer opportunities to hit those home runs. So there’s that, too.
The Royals’ front office and coaching staff are not stupid. These people know baseball well. Most of them more than any of us. But that’s just why it is so painful to see them make judgments so lacking in basic logic. You don’t have to be a baseball genius to know that if you’ve got a highly limited resource like outs, you shouldn’t give them away without a darn good reason.
COVERS INTEL: Sandy Alcantara ranks in the 92nd percentile with a .290 xBA.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Victor Wembanyama
Yandy Diaz
Randy Arozarena
