When the Wizards selected Tristan Vukcevic with the 42nd overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, I thought it was something of a steal. He was 25th in my YODA rankings — the last player in 2023 to notch a first-round grade in my stat-based prospect evaluation process.
So, I had hopes. Not exactly high but perhaps a bit higher than would be the norm for a second round pick.
Three years in, those hopes are not dashed, but they’re not met either. According to my PPA metric, Vukcevic has improved each of his three seasons — 55 to 66 to 73. That’s creeping into useful territory, but not stomping in and demanding attention. The year-to-year increments are small at an age when they’d typically be expected to be large. And that move from 66 to 73 is so small it might just be some statistical noise.
Note that his year two and year three PER scores were the same. On the other hand, PER says Vukcevic has been a bit above average each of those seasons, which I’d suggest is a view not shared by many.
Vukcevic is on his way back for a fourth season because…well…I was about to write “strengths,” which would not be completely accurate. He seems to have one strength, which is shooting. At least I think he’s good at shooting. His on-court behavior and the treatment he gets from teammates suggests they also think he’s good at shooting.
The problem, he has not actually made shots at a high level during NBA competition. Through three seasons, he’s finished well on at-rim attempts, been down-down-and-WAY-up from floater range, and not so good on longer twos. His three-point shooting (34.8% on 282 career attempts) is basically league average.
That three-point shooting is probably good enough for a center to make defenses at least pay attention, though it’s not likely to change game plans.
Vukcevic seems to enjoy setting up teammates, but the creativity comes at a cost. He’s had more turnovers than assists each of the past two seasons, and has a negative assist-to-turnover ratio for his career.
Vukcevic rebounds a little, though his career low in rebounding was last season.
Defense has been an adventure. The on/off metrics haven’t been atrocious, and he does generate blocks (better than two per 100 team possessions) and steals. The defensive playmaking comes with fouls, though — 5.9 per 100 team possessions for his career.
The positive-seeming on/off metrics are probably illusory. Throughout Vukcevic’s career, Washington’s defense has been historically bad when he’s been off the court. In his minutes — many of which have come during garbage time and blowouts — the team defense has been slightly less historically bad. I don’t think that “improvement” has been caused by Vukcevic.
As the team transitions to what they hope will be a competitive posture, Vukcevic faces increased competition for even the modest minutes he’s received. Alex Sarr, Anthony Davis, and DeAndre Ayton likely will take most of the big forward and center minutes. Vukcevic may be the fourth big, though the team could also choose to play smaller lineups when one of those guys can’t play. In other words, Vukcevic will also be battling Justin Champagnie, Keyshawn George, Will Riley, AJ Dybantsa, and others for playing time.
Okay, that’s a lot of preamble — we’re here for Statistical Doppelgangers. For the uninitiated, this is the latest installment in this year’s annual trip through the Statistical Doppelganger Machine, which is an algorithm I cooked up to tell me which player seasons (since 1977-78) were most like the reference player. In this case, Vukcevic. Keep up!
The Machine uses 14 categories, including various stats (per possession), age and playing time. While it doesn’t use position or size, comparison seasons tend to come from the same position grouping.
By the way, the player most similar to Vukcevic in 2026-26 was Vukcevic in 2024-25. This happens less often than you might expect. At least more often than I expected. To the doppelgangers:
- Mortiz Wagner | 2021-22 | Orlando Magic | Age: 24 — This was the fourth season and fourth team for Wagner. He’d spent the previous two seasons getting on opponents’ nerves for the Wizards. In subsequent seasons, he worked himself into a chippy, physical, annoying, and decent backup big man before tearing an anterior cruciate ligament in his knee.
- Rodney White | 2003-04 | Denver Nuggets | Age: 23 — This season and the next were about as good as it would get for White, who I remembered as a PF type but Basketball-Reference lists as a SF and SG. I think my memory is right — he was 6-9 and 24o pounds. He had enough ball skills and shooting ability to play a stretch-four role in the aughts, but only just.
- Henry James | 1990-91 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Age: 25 — Nothing much to see here. This was James’ rookie year, and he made appearances in seven different NBA seasons. That could be Vukcevic’s fate — good enough to bounce around for a few years on minimum deals, but not good enough to secure a role. Kinda the next Thomas Bryant.
- Naz Reid | 2022-23 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Age: 23 — This would be the dream scenario for Washington, though I do think Reid has been more than a little overrated throughout his career. He’s had value as an off-the-bench scorer, though his overall production has been only so-so. His next above average season will be his first in my PPA metric.
- Jonathan Bender | 2003-04 | Indiana Pacers | Age: 23 — Bender’s mix of physical tools and ball skills were enough to make him the fifth overall pick in the 1999 NBA Draft — skipping college and making the leap straight to the NBA. He never lived up to the hype, and by 23 was already declining.
The honorable mentions don’t trend any better — seasons from Wang Zhizhi, Jordan Nwora, Cam Whitmore, and (weirdly) Lawrence Moten. Michael Beasley makes an appearance.
Probably the best hope not too far down the list is Ryan Anderson, who had a few superb three-and-D seasons in 20-teens before his career got waylaid by a back injury and personal tragedy. The game has evolved away from the more specialized role Anderson played, but there’s still room for a center who can shoot, pass, and block a few shots.
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