Category: Sports News

It still seems too early to engage in small sample size theater on the Cardinals season. If I’m going to do SSS, this is my choice of topic.

It seems like pre-Arbitration extensions are all the rage this year.  Some people look at these deals as a little on the reckless side.  They ask, “How can team sign a guy to a $100m guaranteed contract when he hasn’t even taken a single MLB at bat?”.  Good question.   

Yet, teams are doing these deals.  Smart people are convincing rich owners that these investments are good bets.  Not just one or two rogue groups, either.  What makes them think PreArb extensions are such a smart thing to do?  As is my want, I dive into the numbers and see if I can discern what they’ve figured out.

Some notes about contracts

Contracts that guarantee money beyond one year pretty much come in three forms:

1. True free agent contracts (think Soto, Ohtani, Harper, et. al.)
2. Contract extensions during the arbitration years (think Garret Crochet, et. al.)
3. Contract extensions during the pre-arb years (Griffin, McGonigle and company).

Each of these classes has their own pattern of contract.  I am only looking at contract extensions for players that either haven’t been through the Arbitration process or haven’t signed a contract that avoids an Arbitration hearing.  I got my data from Cots Contracts and double-checked with Sportrac.   I limited my research to post-COVID, recognizing the evolving dynamics of baseball’s economy.

The economics of baseball – the value of WAR on the open market

One commonly discussed reference point is the notion that a WAR has a value of around $8m on the open market.  It pops up frequently, although it is hard to find any concrete examples of 1 WAR players getting $8m contracts, so I’m a bit skeptical.  A more up-to-date outline is found in a recent Fangraphs article by Ben Clemons.   Highly summarizing a thorough article, he breaks this up into tiers:

Let’s compare and contrast two recent FA contracts using this rule of thumb.  First, we have Shohei Ohtani’s mega-deal.  $700m contract.  10 years.  $70m AAV.  If I apply the MLB approved discount factor of 4.43% to get the net present value of that $700m, and then peanut butter that NPV figure over the expected WAR the Dodgers could expect from Ohtani (with relevant decline factors appropriate for high WAR players), you end up a cool $10m per WAR (rounded).  Interesting.  Right between Tier 2 and Tier 3.  I do not think of Ohtani as a player who fits between Tiers 2 and 3. 

Second, we have Alex Bregman’s contract.  $175m contract.  5 years.  $35m AAV.  Do all the same math with the same methods to get projected WAR and the NPV of the contract value and you end up with a annual per WAR cost of $14.2m rounded. 

So, how does Ohtani getting $10m per WAR compare to Bregman getting $14.2m per WAR?  Seems backwards in a way, given the players.  And neither figure compares all that great with the Tier 3 amount of $12.8m per WAR.

An alternative way to compare contracts

A reference point I propose is that the open market cost of WAR is better expressed by the combination of contract length and the value of the contract in net present value terms (often very different than the headlines). 

Try this, using the Bregman/Ohtani example:

• Ohtani 10yrs/$388m (NPV)
• Bregman 5yrs/$160m (NPV) 

That seems more like it. This view will help us understand all these extension a fair bit better than looking at $ per WAR.  At least, that is what I’m proposing.

Some more about baseball economics – net present value

One thing about that seemingly outrageous $700m Ohtani contract.  It’s not really $700m in today’s terms.  A lot of his money will be paid in the 2040’s.  When you factor in the equivalent value of those dollars in today’s terms, his total contract value (in NPV) is more like $388m.  That’s a bit different than $700m.  Using NPV allows us to compare contracts, smoothing out the impact of deferrals, bonuses and different contract start and end dates. 

Some complexity arises when trying to compare these FA contracts with PreArb Extensions

A key consideration in this analysis is that the pre-arb contracts players and teams are entering into aren’t really open market free agent contracts.  There is no bidding, which ostensibly suppresses the contract values.  I end up using the FA contracts as the end-points which help identify why teams do these pre-arb extensions.   

Another challenge is that projectable WAR for a player who hasn’t taken a PA in the major leagues has a great deal more variability.  Injury risk aside, Ohtani’s general WAR projection is remarkably stable looking when compared with, say, Colt Emerson.  Ergo, per WAR $$ estimations are highly variable.

Are the number of Pre-Arb extensions unusual this year?

I’ve seen some folks speculate teams are doing these deals as some form of hedge against the upcoming CBA drama.  Since 2021, I show teams have entered into 42 pre-arb extensions.  Approximately 7 per year.  How many have occurred this year?  Seven, including the reported McGonigle deal.  Not exactly a stampede, huh? 

What do Pre-Arb deals look like?

As one looks across the spectrum of pre-Arb deals that have been done, they carry some pretty strikingly similar characteristics.  Almost like there is a playbook on this.

1. The most common age for signing is age 24. 
2. Position players get more of these than pitchers do by a 2:1 ratio.
3. The pitchers that get these extensions tend to be at the higher end of the age range, and tend to get the lower end of the length of contract (and dollars). 
4. The usual baseball premiums apply.  Uber-talented shortstops and heavy hitting outfielders make the coin.  Relievers are the street sweepers. 
5. Most pre-arb extensions carry through 1 or 2 years of the players’ Free Agency eligibility (except pitchers). 
6. Most extensions come with 1 or 2 club options, with very minimal buyouts.     
7. Extensions with player options are reserved for the cream of the crop (JRod, Witt).
8. Bonuses and deferrals are comparatively minor consideration is these contracts.

Interpreting the Chart

This chart displays both FA contracts and Pre-Arb Extensions.  Each contract is a point on the chart.  All values are NPV, so effectively in 2025 dollar terms.  I omitted low dollar, low length FA contracts (think: Ramon Urias of the Cardinals).  The comparison I’m after is top FA to top prospects getting PreArb extensions. 

The red points are the FA contracts.  Size of the dots represents the total NPV value of the contract.  Ohtani and Soto get the biggest dots. They have the biggest contracts.

The blue points are PreArb extensions signed after 2020.  Witt’s deal stands out. Good one?

The x-axis displays the guaranteed length of the contract (omits options) and the y-axis plots the AAV of said contract in NPV terms. 

What is with that arc drawn in the middle?

This arc illustrates the natural break between outlier players and everyone else.  FA contracts for Tucker, Soto, Guerrero Jr, and Ohtani.  PreArb extensions for Witt, JRod, Tatis and Franco.  Those are the outliers, both in terms of player and in terms of contracts.

Three common factors to consider with the outlier contracts:

1.  The contracts are for generational talents and are somewhat unique.
2. The AAV of the PreArb Extension for similar outlier prospects is significantly lower than the FA deals.
3. The length of contracts, however, are comparable.

In the end, what we see with this small sample is: PreArb extension allow the home team the opportunity to lock in years of a generational talent, without taking the financial hit or risk that comes with the FA contract.  While the risk the player doesn’t meet those projected heights is present, the dollar risk is comparatively low.  As you probably know without looking at FanGraphs, the teams that entered these 4 PreArb Extensions pretty much got it right, talent-wise. 

What about inside the arc?

These contracts are for stars (or projected stars), but not generational talents.   Hopefully, I don’t have to explain the difference. 

When I look at the contracts in this group as a whole, without seeing names, I notice some similarities:

1.  The contracts inside the arc are not so unique.  Almost cookie cutter.
2. The AAV of the PreArb Extension is significantly lower than the deals for similar star free agents.
3. The length of  FA and PreArb contracts are comparable, with FA skewing a little shorter.  This makes sense given FA contracts are paying for decline years.

What do these contracts accomplish?

For the team, the contracts introduce a notable cost reduction and additional years of control over an emerging star player. 

The way I think of it is … for most situations, a team expects to have player control for 6 years.  Three years at right around major league minimum at $780,000/yr.  Three years will be arbitration awards based, either through hearings or negotiations.  Then they lose the player to free agency.  If they want to retain some value from the player, they end up trading him prior to the Free Agency, shortening the time they extract value, and the time they lose is often the most productive portion of that player’s career (ie. the prime years).   Think of the Nats trading Soto at ~4.5 years of service time.

For a player with a pre-Arb extension, the team accelerates earnings for the player.  First year payments (including bonus money) average around $3.5m, a fair bit more than MLB minimum. The contracts mirror the significant bumps for the years the player would be in Arbitration but remove the obstacle of going through the Arbitration process, which can be … divisive, and removes the whole “platform year” variable for both player and team.  For the “bought out” FA years, the contract sees another bump, but typically not as astronomical as what Free Agents see between their last year of Arb and first year of Free Agency.   

How do these contracts compare to normal Free Agent contracts?

If you think of the extreme examples (Soto, Ohtani), there is the simple reality that most teams can’t swim in this end of the pool.  They don’t have either the capital or the stomach for the risk associated with that kind of contract.  Even with less extreme examples (Tucker, Bregman, Bichette) teams are going to experience very high AAV or longer than desired length.  Either way, the total out-go is too much for many teams to stomach, particularly as they look at the out-years and realize they will be paying premium dollars for a player well past his prime.  How do we think Machado’s contract will look at age 39?

What makes these Pre-Arb contracts smart?

These represent the best alterative to keeping the best players without swimming in the deepest end of the risk pool called Free Agency.

For both FA and PreARb, pitchers and position players have different WAR ranges and get paid differently for that WAR.  Of recent FA contracts, the highest position player contract runs just over $14m per expected WAR.  That is for a 4-5 WAR player.  Teams can buy down that high WAR figure by extending the contract.  For example, Ohtani’s NPV $$ per WAR is slightly under $10m/WAR.  But the Dodgers had to commit $700m to get to that figure.  They did it with years.

The key is the AAV and length.  $140m for 9 years (Griffin) is a fair bit different than $700m for 10 years (Ohtani), especially for those teams where $700m is unreachable.  What the Pre-Arb deal does is give that small- or mid-market team access to a player they think might be that same top 10^th or 20^th percentile class as an Ohtani or Soto or Bregman or Tucker.  Plus the term of the contract is generally aligned with the players ascension years, whereas a FA contract is generally aligned with a players decline years. 

The risk, of course, is higher that Griffin will fail to perform as envisioned that it is Ohtani.  We know what Ohtani is, even with projected decline. 

A Pre-Arb extension to a guy like Konnor Griffin makes sense if a team thinks they can get at least 1-2 WAR out of him for the 9 years.  2 WAR * 9 years = 18 WAR * $8.5m per WAR = $153m.  Thus, Griffins’ expected floor (and the guaranteed portion of his contract) would be right in line with open market costs per WAR for a 1-2 WAR player.  The Pirates are paying for the equivalent of a 1-2 WAR player over the next 9 years, and they have a chance of getting much, much more.  We call it “upside”.  The money guys call it “surplus value”.  Surplus value is what allows a team to assemble a competitive roster without a $300m payroll.  That’s what makes it smart.

For the pump to be primed, a couple of factors must be in play.

First, a team has to have a player that can be realistically expected to produce star-level performance during their prime years.   The contract needs to carry through most of the players peak years, as well, so that maximum value can be extracted from the player. 

Second, the total outlay of the extension needs to accommodate the potential that the player may not meet that expectation.  As with Griffin, the Pirates would certainly prefer the 4-5 WAR player they envision, but the contract would not be burdensome if he turned out to be 1.5 to 2.5 WAR. 

Third, it is optimal if a team can get a year or two of team options to extend the contract if things are going well.  This ensures the team can retain the player at an agreed upon amount without dealing with the wild-west aspect of the free agent bazaar to keep the player.  And yet again avoids the decline years.

When is it not smart to do this?

Pitchers.  They break.  See Stridor, Spencer.

Older players.  If a team can’t strike at the optimal time around age-24 (or earlier), then they probably are better off just working through the traditional process and letting that player go after 6 years, in which case many are already on the wrong side of 30 years old. 

Low ceiling players.  The teams’ ability to evaluate talent is crucial.  They need to discern who really can reach star heights.  There are no guarantees, but it can be easy to mistake a good and useful player for a possible star. 

High risk players.  Make-up, and the ability to evaluate it, may be just as crucial.  A player may have star tools, but if they have high risk features, it may be smarter to roll the dice on the side of the traditional 6-year process. That may be the lesson of Wander Franco.  

Who plays on this field?

Interestingly, most teams participate.  In 6 years, 20 of the 30 MLB teams have done at least one pre-Arb Extension.  Cleveland is the most prolific at 5 such deals. 

The ten team that have not done a PreArb recently?  They fit into 2 neat categories.  Mega-market teams that don’t sweat risk and exposure, so they swim in the deep end of the FA pool: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Giants, Rangers, Mets.  The rest are teams not known for their solid management chops or advanced thinking: Rockies, Angels, Marlins.  The tenth team that doesn’t play? Our Cardinals. I suspect being in this list is more a reflection of the Cardinal talent pipeline the last 5-6 years than their management acumen.

Would they?  Should they?

Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera will not sign PreArb extensions.  They are already under contract for 2026 and for both, this is their 3^rd and final pre-arb year.  If they sign an extension, it will be one to avoid Arbitration.  Those contracts have a whole look and feel different than what I’ve enumerated above.

JJ Wetherholt, on the other hand, fits right into to the PreArb model.  23 years old.  Projected star.  Less than 1 year of service time.  The cookie cutter approach to these contracts makes such an extension easy to imagine.

If you view JJW as a middle infielder, a star but not a generational talent, the Cardinals might be inclined to find Tovar and Wilson as SS comps and Rafaela and Keith as 2B comps and think in the range of 7-8 years, $50m-$70m in whatever combination that brings the AAV (non-discounted) at around $10 per year. His representation, of course, will seek to cast him in the same company as Griffin and McGonigle, closer to $15m/AAV (non-discounted). Therein lies the gap that Wetherholt’s representation and Cardinals management will have to bridge. Because of Wetherholt’s age, he is not likely to get the 9th year. As a second baseman, he’s not likely to get the $15m AAV that Griffin got, but maybe in the range of the $10m AAV that Wilson got. Or would the Cardinals be OK with paying Wetherholt as an elite Shortstop? Hard to say. That would be an interesting phenomenon to pay Wetherholt the way Winn would like to be paid for the position Winn plays. I’d guess the compromise would be in the range of 8 years, $100m. If that rings a bell, that would be a comp to Colt Emerson/Seattle.

If you want to consider the downside risk of such a deal, take a look at David Fletcher’s career. Would such an extension be an albatross if that happened? Is the risk/benefit trade-off worth it?

The Guardians got a big opening series win vs. The Orioles last night, featuring fans getting excited about Parker Messick and worried about Cade Smith.

Here’s Zack Meisel’s recap of the no-hit bid from Messick. He extolled Austin Hedges’ work behind the plate:

Stephen Vogt talked a little about Cade’s struggles:

Paul Hoynes has news about pranks Stephen Vogt has played on Orioles’ manager Craig Albernaz.

AROUND MLB:

The Tigers beat the Royals and the White Sox lost.

Mike Trout became the first visiting player in the history of Yankee stadium to homer in four straight games.

Good morning, Camden Chatters.

Remember four days ago, when the Orioles were in first place? It was fun while it lasted. The momentum arrow has swung decisively downward since then, with the O’s suffering three straight losses to drop back under .500 for the season.

Last night in Cleveland, the Orioles didn’t just lose. They nearly ended up a patsy for their opponent’s bid for the history books. Guardians rookie Parker Messick, making just his 11th major league start, kept the O’s hitless into the ninth inning. The Birds were on the brink of being no-hit for the first time since Hisashi Iwakuma in August 2015. Messick is having a sensational year in the early goings, but the Orioles’ performance last night didn’t make fans feel much better about the erratic O’s offense thus far. John Beers recapped all the action, of which there wasn’t much.

If there’s room for positivity, it should be noted that the Birds put up a heck of a fight in that ninth inning. Leody Taveras broke up the no-no with a leadoff single, and three other Orioles strung together hits after him, plating a pair of runs as the Guardians were forced to turn to their closer, Cade Smith. In fact the O’s might well have tied the game if not for a game-ending diving stop at second base by Juan Brito that robbed Samuel Basallo of a hit. What a comeback that would have been. I suppose the Orioles already used up their “no hits for eight innings followed by an incredible game-winning rally in the ninth” magic on Yoshinobu Yamamoto last year. You can’t expect lightning to strike twice.

Perhaps that ninth-inning eruption can serve as a spark plug for the O’s offense to put up some runs for the rest of this series. At least they won’t have to worry about facing Parker Messick again (not until the O’s host the Guardians in September, anyway). Whatever it takes, it’s time to start stringing some Ws together. The Orioles have been hovering around mediocrity for a while now. If they’re planning to take a step forward, any chance they can do it soon?

Links

Albernaz’s gift upon return to Cleveland? An office of kid-sized furniture, decor – MLB.com

Guardians skipper Stephen Vogt arranged a welcome-home prank for his BFF Craig Albernaz that poked fun at his diminutive stature. As someone who is the same height as Albernaz, I must object. I only sometimes use kid-sized furniture.

Orioles recall Foster and trade McDermott – School of Roch

It’s been a steep fall for Chayce McDermott, one of the Orioles’ top pitching prospects a couple of years ago who’s now being shipped off for a DSL lottery ticket. Knowing the Dodgers, they’ll of course transform McDermott into an elite reliever.

After pitching for 7 MLB clubs, will RHP Rico Garcia find a home in the O’s bullpen? – Steve Melewski

Watching Rico Garcia pitch this year, you’d never believe that six teams gave up on him, including the Orioles themselves four years ago. Let’s ride this wave however long it lasts.

Should Orioles sign Lucas Giolito? | MAILBAG – BaltimoreBaseball.com

Might as well. By the time he’s ready to pitch in a month, at least eight more O’s pitchers will have gotten injured.

Orioles break up no-hitter against Parker Messick but can’t complete comeback in loss to Guardians – The Baltimore Banner

A bit of advice for the Orioles offense: next time, maybe start getting hits before the ninth inning?

Orioles birthdays and history

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday! Three former Orioles were born on this day: right-hander Logan Gillaspie (29), third baseman Craig Worthington (61), and catcher Dave Huppert (69).

On this date in 1965, in a game at Fenway Park, O’s starter Robin Roberts was knocked out of the game after just two innings, giving up five runs. He was replaced by a 19-year-old right-hander who’d signed with the Orioles as an amateur free agent the previous August. The youngster issued a pair of walks and threw a wild pitch but made it through two scoreless innings in his major league debut. His name was Jim Palmer, and one legendary, 19-year career later, he joined Roberts in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

And on this day in 1993, the Orioles somehow ended up with three runners at third base at the same time. With the bags full, Mike Devereaux hit a sinking liner to center that was trapped by the Angels’ Chad Curtis. Jeff Tackett, thinking the ball was caught, headed back to third base, while Brady Anderson jogged from second to third and Chito Martinez motored all the way over from first to third. The Angels tagged the three runners and easily completed a double play. (The only reason it wasn’t a triple play is because there was already one out.)

Random Orioles game of the day

On April 17, 1959, the Orioles beat the visiting Washington Senators, 4-3, at Memorial Stadium. O’s starter Milt Pappas went the distance, holding the Senators to three runs. The Birds trailed 3-1 in the sixth before Jim Finigan’s two-run single knotted the score, and the O’s took the lead in the eighth when Washington walked the bases loaded to set up a Gene Woodling sacrifice fly. A 22-year-old Brooks Robinson did not start but came in as a defensive replacement in the ninth.

Greetings, Brew Crew Ball community. The Brewers had a rough week, as they were swept by the Nationals and battled with the reigning AL Champion Toronto Blue Jays this week. They’re now back on the road, as they’ll head to Miami and Detroit this week.

Feel free to use this thread to chat about (almost) anything you want: video games, food, movies, non-baseball sports, the Brewers, you name it. As long as it’s appropriate and is allowed by our moderators, it’s fair game here.

You know the drill.

This is now an open thread:

Things are a bit tense in the Phillies fanbase. A series victory against the Braves would do a lot to remedy that. A series loss against them would do a lot to make things tenser.

It’s a three game series, so those are the only two options.

Onto the links.

Phillies news

Andrew Painter has made a good impression so far.

So has Justin Crawford. But could he make an even better one?

It’s been 90 years of Phillies broadcasts on the radio.

The Inquirer surveys the Phillies’ start. ($)

MLB news

The Giants and Reds cleared the benches as their series ended.

Power rankings! Get your power rankings here!

It’s early, but here’s a look at how everyone’s handling the new ABS world.

Free of charge for the discerning reader.Happy birthday toCap Ansonand a mighty host of others, plus more baseball stories, such as the first pro game, Jackie’s first hit, Sam Snead’s big hit, Mickey LOVED Washington, and the debuts of Clemente, Aparicio, Drysdale and Frank Robinson.

Today in baseball history:

• 1869 – The first professional baseball game ever played sees the Cincinnati Red Stockings defeat the rival Cincinnati Amateurs, 24-15.
• 1947 – The Brooklyn Dodgers win 12-6 over the Boston Braves at Ebbets Field, as Jackie Robinson gets his first major league hit, a bunt single, off Glenn Elliott. Robinson will bunt 42 times, collecting 19 hits, during the season.
• 1951 – Golf great Sam Snead tees off from home plate and hits the center field scoreboard at Wrigley Field before the Cubs’ home opener. The Associated Press reports: “Sammy Snead settled a long-standing argument today over whether a golf ball could be driven from home plate over the towering scoreboard at Wrigley Field. It can, by a golfer like Sam. Wearing street clothes, Snead sent a ball zooming well over the scoreboard with a No. 2 iron after hitting the board with a swing with a No. 4 iron. Snead calculated the carry was 175 yards. The scoreboard rises 89 feet in the air some 50 feet behind the 400-mark on the centerfield wall.”
• 1953 – New York Yankees outfielder Mickey Mantle clears the bleachers at Griffith Stadium with a 565-foot home run off Chuck Stobbs. The shot comes in the fifth inning of a 7-3 Yankees victory over the Washington Senators. It is believed to be the longest home run in Griffith Stadium history.
• 1955 – At Forbes Field, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 20-year-old rookie Roberto Clemente makes his major league debut, ironically but perhaps fittingly, against the Brooklyn Dodgers, the team that first signed him but left him unprotected in the 1954 Rule 5 draft. In his first at-bat, the future Hall of Famer rifles one back through Johnny Podres, and off the glove of shortstop Pee Wee Reese, for the first of his 3,000 career hits.
• 1955 – Al Kaline of the Detroit Tigers hits three home runs in Briggs Stadium, including a pair in the 6th inning, to drive in six runs. The Tigers rout the A’s, 16-0, behind Steve Gromek‘s strong pitching.
• 1956 – Three future Hall of Fame members make their major league debuts. Luis Aparicio of the Chicago White Sox, Don Drysdale of the Brooklyn Dodgers and Frank Robinson of the Cincinnati Redlegs all play the first games of their brilliant careers.
• 1956 – Mickey Mantle of the New York Yankees hits a pair of tape measure home runs against Camilo Pascual at Griffith Stadium. Both long balls are estimated at over 500 feet. New York and the Washington Senators combine for six home runs in a 10-4 Opening Day victory for the Yankees.
• 1964 – The New York Mets lose their first game at Shea Stadium to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 4-3. Pittsburgh’s Willie Stargell hits the first home run ever at Shea.
• 1974 – C George Mitterwald has a career day in leading the Cubs to an 18-9 win over the Pirates. He goes 4-for-4 with a walk, a double, three homers, and eight RBI. The next Cub catcher to hit three homers in a game will be Dioner Navarro, in 2013.
• 1976 – At Wrigley Field, Mike Schmidt leads a Philadelphia Phillies assault with a single, four home runs in consecutive at-bats, and eight RBI to overcome a 12 – 1 deficit after three innings and beat the Chicago Cubs in 10 innings, 18-16. The Cubs tie the game in the ninth after the Phillies have taken a 15 – 13 lead. Hitting .167 going into the game, Schmidt connects for two homers off Rick Reuschel, one off Mike Garman, and the last, a two-run shot off Reuschel’s brother Paul in the 10th inning. Schmidt also becomes the first National League player in modern times to hit four home runs in a row.
• 2011 – For the first time since their move to Washington, DC in 2005, the Nationals sweep a doubleheader at home. David Espinosa and Ivan Rodriguez bang three-run homers in an 8-4 win over the Brewers in the opener.

Cubs Birthdays:Roberto Peña, Bob Osborn, Morrie Schick, Scott Perry, Tom Needham, Mike Jacob. Also notable: Cap Anson* HOF

Today in history:

• 858 – Benedict III’s reign as Catholic Pope ends with his death.
• 1492 – Christopher Columbus signs a contract with Spanish monarchs King Ferdinand II of Aragon and Queen Isabella I to find the “Indies” with the stated goal of converting people to Catholicism. This promises him 10% of all riches found and the governorship of any lands encountered.
• 1853 – US Marine Hospital at Presidio, San Francisco forms.
• 1860 – Champion of England Tom Sayers and American John Heenan fight a brutal 2-hour, 27-minute draw that ends only after police stop the fight near Farnborough in England, acknowledged as the first world title bout.
• 1875 – Modern snooker is invented by Sir Neville Chamberlain, a bored British officer in Jabalpur, India.
• 1969 – Sirhan Sirhan is convicted of assassinating US Senator Robert F. Kennedy.
• 1993 – Two Los Angeles police officers convicted in federal court of violating Rodney King‘s civil rights and sentenced to prison, while two others are acquitted, leading to the L. A. Riots. When the riots ended six days later, 63 people had been killed, 2,383 had been injured, more than 12,000 had been arrested, and estimates of property damage were over $1 billion.
• 2015 – American jazz composer and saxophonist John Coltrane is awarded a posthumous Special Citation by the Pulitzer Prize board.
• 2015 – Marianne Winkler finds “message in a bottle” on the shore of the German island of Amrum; it had been dropped in the North Sea by British marine scientist George Parker Bidder on November 30th, 1906, making its length of time spent adrift 108 years, 138 days

*pictured.

KMOX’s pre/post-game host Matt Pauley sets the stage for us for the Astros upcoming weekend series vs. St. Louis.   

Q:  Is Jordan Walker now the face of the franchise?

A:  Interesting question.  I’m not sure I’d say he’s the face just yet, but his start to the season has been spectacular.   

He was literally one of the worst hitters in baseball the last couple of years, and I’d heard from fans and they were ready to move on from him, but now seeing what he’s doing, it’s unexpected.  Some felt even coming out of spring training that he should’ve been optioned to AAA Memphis.    

On Monday night, he hit his 8th home run in the first 16 games of this season.  The only Cardinals players to accomplish that feat in team history are Stan Musial, Mark McGwire, Scott Rolen and Albert Pujols.  He’s in rare air.   

Q:  Did you think J.J. Wetherholt would be this strong defensively?   

A:  No, I didn’t.  His reputation is being an incredible hitter, so to see what he’s doing, especially going to his left, he’s getting just about everything which has been a surprise.   

Q:  One of the worst words in sports is “rebuild”.  Are the Cardinals fully immersed in that process?

A:  This is the first true rebuild year.  Prior, they were trying to serve two masters.  Last year didn’t work.   

This is the first time in a while that there’s been clear intention of what they’re doing.  It doesn’t mean they won’t be competitive.  I know in talking to you, you lived through it in Houston 15 years ago.  That was a complete and total tear down.

Q:  Who will we see in this weekend series for the Cardinals’ starters taking the mound?

A:  It will be a mix of Kyle Leahy, who actually throws six different pitches.  He has a nice repertoire as someone coming from the bullpen originally.  

Andre Pallante last year really struggled.  He’s added a changeup but struggled against Boston recently.  You’ll also see Matthew Liberatore,  who is the leader of the rotation.  He was the opening day starter.  They believe he can be the guy to lead this staff.   

The Detroit Tigers are on a roll after a perfect 6-0 homestand that erased a five-game losing streak and put them over the .500 mark for the first time since late March. Next up on the agenda are the Boston Red Sox, who will host the Motor City Kitties for a four-game series at Fenway Park starting on Friday night.

The BoSox got off to a slow start to the 2026 campaign, dropping five straight after their season-opening win at the Cincinnati Reds, but have since earned series wins over the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. Boston enters the weekend coming off a series loss at the Minnesota Twins, but it did prevent a sweep with a win on Wednesday’s finale.

Opening things up on the mound for the Olde English D is right-hander Casey Mize, whose trademark splitter appears to be finally reaching its long-awaited potential. Opposite him is lefty Ranger Suarez, who has had modest success so far this season.

Make note that Friday night’s tilt will be broadcast on AppleTV, while Monday’s matchup starts at an eye-rubbingly early 11:10 a.m. ET.

Detroit Tigers (10-9) vs. Boston Red Sox (7-11)

Time (ET): 7:15 p.m.
Place: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts
SB Nation Site:Over the Monster
Media: AppleTV,Tigers Radio Network

Game 20: RHP Casey Mize (1-1, 3.94 ERA) vs. LHP Ranger Suarez (1-1, 5.02 ERA)

MIZE

SUAREZ