If the Orioles do end up fully turning this season around, this past home stand will have been where it started. Ten days ago, this club was spiraling, losers of five out of six and cratering to the bottom of the AL East. Now, after some home cooking and a series of exciting wins, the O’s feel like they are truly back in the mix.
Prior to this 10-game home stretch, the Orioles were 21-29, in fifth place in the division, 13 games out of first place and 3.5 games back of the final wild card spot. After going 7-3, which included a series win over the Tigers, a sweep of the Rays, and a four-game split with the Blue Jays, they are now 28-32. That brought them up to fourth in the East, within 10 games of first in the division, and just one game out of the final wild card spot.
Clearly, there’s work to be done, but the success of the home stand is unambiguous. The Orioles finally put together a stretch of games that made them look like the competitive team they were always supposed to be. Dreams of a playoff run are back on.
Offensive outburst
Over these 10 games, the Orioles scored 60 runs and hit 14 home runs. Contributions came from up and down the order, the previous black holes at second and third base seem to have disappeared, and one Oriole in particular has reasserted his everyday place in the lineup.
Nine different Orioles had a wRC+ of 105 or better. That is the sort of well-rounded offense Mike Elias had in mind when he built the roster. And that includes Pete Alonso (119 wRC+), Gunnar Henderson (111), and Adley Rutschman (105) being good not great. It was the rest of the team that really drove the run scoring.
Coby Mayo, despite dealing with an injury, had an impressive showing across five appearances. He slashed .333/.412/.600 with a home run. Could he be turning the corner? The Orioles really need him to take third base as his own.
Jackson Holliday’s return to the lineup has added a crucial dimension to the offense. He hit .276/.371/.483 with two home runs, and a 14.3% walk rate. While Jeremiah Jackson did a great job early in the season, his struggles have been evident for a while now. Holliday brings a much better approach to the plate.
But the MVP of the entire home stand is, without a doubt, Colton Cowser. The outfielder hit .375/.444/.792 with three home runs, eight runs scored, and nine RBI. He cut is strikeout rate in half, just 18.5% in this stretch, while still walking at a solid 11.1% rate. Cowser also came up clutch several times, including a pair of walk-off home runs. The Orioles don’t even need him to be that good at the plate. They just need him to be competent. He was certainly that these last few days.
Rotation rounding into form?
Expectations for the Orioles starting staff were not as high as they were for the lineup. The group simply needed to be serviceable with occasional pops of brilliance. Until recently, the underlying numbers for the starters were better than the actual outcomes. In these 10 games, their fortunes turned around a bit.
The Orioles 2.38 starter ERA since May 22 is the fifth-best in baseball. Their 4.27 xERA is 17th, their 4.21 FIP is 19th, and their 4.48 xFIP ranks 23rd. So were they actually good, or did they just get some good luck? The answer varies by the individual.
Shane Baz had a brilliant seven-inning outing, and both Brandon Young and Kyle Bradish have found some consistency recently that feels impossible to ignore. Chris Bassitt, on the other hand, allowed just one run in six innings despite barely missing any bats. Trey Gibson navigated a boatload of walks to give up just one run in 5.2 frames. Those two seem to be on the luckier side of things.
Trevor Rogers exists somewhere in between. Neither of his two starts on the home stand were “good,” and the Orioles lost both games. But they also felt like progress from where he has been. If he had been pulled after six innings in the game against the Blue Jays then maybe we would feel even better about this team, the pitching staff, and this stretch of 10 games.
Bullpen roles becoming clear
The relief corps had an opposite experience to their mates in the rotation. Some of their underlying stats from the home stand were actually better (3.16 FIP) than their top-line numbers (4.10 ERA). But overall outcomes in a bullpen feel less important than how some of the most important individuals are doing. In that regard, it was promising.
Rico Garcia went another 4.2 innings without allowing an earned run, though his strikeout (5.79 K/9) and walk (3.86 BB/9) numbers are not where you want them. Even still, it’s more brilliance from one of the team’s best surprises.
Andrew Kittredge seems to have found his footing after struggling after his IL stint. He didn’t allow a run in three appearances, which included coming into a bases loaded jam with no outs against the Rays. He struck out the three batters he was responsible for.
It was not a good week-and-a-half for Yennier Cano. He is the one that created the aforementioned bases loaded mess for Kittredge, and he exited with what seemed to be a hamstring injury. The good news is that he’s fine! No IL stint. and his underlying metrics are much better than the 16.20 ERA across 1.2 innings would suggest.
On top of that, Ryan Helsley is on the way back. He threw a 15-20-pitch bullpen on May 30, will do more bullpen work this week, and then is expected to go out on a rehab assignment sometime after June 8. He’s a reliever, so shouldn’t need an overly long stint down in the minors before he is ready to help the rest of the group out.
The return of Helsley should make the entire unit deeper. He will likely return to the closer’s role, even though Garcia has filled in admirably there. More importantly, it pushes everyone else further up in the game. So if a starter can get through five or six innings with the game in reach, you feel confident that a combination of Garcia, Kittrege, Cano, and Helsely can lock things down from there. It’s a much better situation in the late innings than many expected coming into the season.
Keep it going
Hoping for the Orioles to continue winning seven out of every 10 games is a way to get yourself disappointed. But they do need to maintain some level of momentum, and this road trip could give a chance to do just that.
They start with three games in Boston, who are back at the bottom of the AL East following the O’s winning ways. The BoSox have been awful at home this year, owning a 9-19 record at Fenway Park. Similarly, the Orioles have been terrible on the road (9-17) this year. Something’s gotta give.
Then the O’s get to see the Blue Jays again. The defending American League champs have righted the ship after early-season wobbles. But they are no juggernaut. There’s no better way to get back into playoff position than to beat a team that currently holds one of the last wild card spots.
This past home stand was so huge for the Orioles and the fan base. If it had gone wrong, it would have felt like a final blow to this underperforming team. Instead, they were fantastic. We saw the potential. Let’s keep it going, folks!
Bob Frid-Imagn Images
