Category: Sports News

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The weekend has arrived, and so have our MLB expert picks!

See why the Diamondbacks will roll over the Reds, and much more, on Friday, Aug. 21.

MLB expert picks for today

Pick	Odds
Jon Metler: CHC ML	-104
Dustin Saracini: TB ML	+113
Joe Osborne: ARZ -1.5	+150

Prices courtesy of Polymarket.

Jon Metler's expert pick: Cubs moneyline

Price: 51¢ (-104) at Polymarket

Matthew Boyd has struggled of late, allowing four home runs and seven earned runs in his last outing. But that poor performance may be exactly why we're getting an opportunity in the market, and I think the matchup at T-Mobile Park sets up well for a bounce-back start.

Boyd is a fly-ball pitcher, which can make him vulnerable depending on the ballpark and weather conditions. T-Mobile Park is an ideal setting for him, as the marine layer can limit the carry on fly balls and help mitigate his biggest weakness.

His overall numbers haven't been great this season, but many of his struggles have come at Wrigley Field. On the road, Boyd has posted a 2.57 ERA while allowing just two home runs, compared to 11 at Wrigley.

The Cubs are trading at 51 cents on Polymarket, but I make them closer to a 54-cent favorite, giving us an edge at the current price.

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• How to watch: MARQ, Mariners.TV

Dustin Saracini's expert pick: Rays moneyline

Price: 47¢ (+113) at Polymarket

The Rays have lost five of their last seven games, but are in a prime bounce-back spot as underdogs against Trevor Rogers and the Baltimore Orioles on the road.

Yandy Diaz (7-for-13, .591 xSLG), Junior Caminero (3-for-10, .278 xBA), and Ryan Vilade (4-for-4, HR) have all had their way against Rogers, who's coughed up a homer in each of his last three starts.

Going for the Rays is Freddy Peralta, who's striking this Orioles team out at a 26% clip across 53 at-bats, a sample size we can get behind.

With a heavy right-handed hitting lineup expected to be deployed for Tampa, they'll win this one outright. Play up to 50 cents at Polymarket.

• Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Apple TV

Joe Osborne's expert pick: Diamondbacks -1.5

Price: 40¢ (+150) at Polymarket

There’s an incredible amount of data pointing toward Arizona winning this game comfortably.

Over the past month, the Diamondbacks rank first in home OPS, while the Reds sit at 27th on the road. Both teams will start left-handers, which creates another massive edge for Arizona. The D-backs rank second in OPS against lefties during that span, compared to 28th for Cincinnati. Eduardo Rodriguez also owns an ERA nearly two runs lower than Nick Lodolo, and the Reds’ bullpen has been one of baseball’s worst in recent weeks. Cincinnati is just 4-10 in Lodolo’s starts.

Add it all up, and Arizona is worthy of a plus-money runline wager.

• Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
• How to watch: Reds.TV, DBacks.TV

More MLB best bets for today

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Around 11 a.m. on May 29, 1949, veteran scout Tom Greenwade rolled up to a home in Commerce, OK to link up with a teenage ballplayer and his father. After watching the kid play each of the two days prior, Greenwade was intrigued enough to drive from Commerce to Baxter Springs, KS for another showcase. That day in Baxter Springs, he saw something that took him by surprise. Facing a lefty for the first time with Greenwade in attendance, the teenager stepped into the right-hander’s batter’s box. After lacing four line drives, the switch-hitter retreated to Greenwade’s car along with his father. The three hashed out a $1,500 contract for the remainder of the season to start his career in pro ball. Mickey Mantle was a Yankee.

Thomas Edison Greenwade
Born: August 21, 1904 (Willard, MO)
Died: August 9, 1986 (Willard, MO)
Yankees Tenure: 1949-64

Greenwade grew up in Willard, a small town in Missouri that he’d call home throughout his life. He was an early standout as a pitcher and outfielder, playing in both the minor leagues and independent ball from 1923 into the ‘30s. While he had some excellent seasons, he never got the chance to play in the big leagues, moving into coaching and, eventually, scouting.

For a young man with little pedigree, Greenwade’s ascent in the scouting world is astounding. Hired by the Dodgers in 1940, he proved himself to Branch Rickey immediately. By 1943, he was already the Dodgers’ top talent evaluator, leading to a historic assignment that would become integral to his legacy.

Having received approval from Brooklyn ownership to pursue Black players, Rickey had a conundrum. On the one hand, the process of selecting the player to break the color barrier had to be kept completely under wraps. Any awareness on the part of the public — or even the rest of the league — of the Dodgers’ plan could torpedo it at the outset. At the same time, it was imperative Rickey choose a player whose talent and temperament would make the experiment a success, a task that would generally require all hands on deck in his scouting department.

At a one-on-one meeting at Kansas City’s Biltmore Hotel in 1943, Rickey tapped the one and only scout who would be involved in this secret project. “All that secrecy had me buffaloed,” Greenwade later said of the historic discussion. “And I got more curious after he sat and talked to me about things that had happened in his life. He told me one story about the time a hotel refused to allow the catcher of his Ohio Wesleyan team to have a room. The catcher was a Negro, and I began to get the idea.”

Greenwade started the process in Mexico and Cuba, under the guise of recruiting for a hypothetical Black Dodgers Negro League franchise. The first candidate who was strongly considered was Cuban shortstop Silvio Garcia, a talented ballplayer playing in the Mexican League. Accounts differ on why Garcia was not the man to make the leap to the National League. The most titillating account is that Mexican League President Jorge Pasquel put a pistol on the desk during his meeting with Greenwade, implying in no uncertain terms that he would not permit Garcia to jump ship to the States. Another narrative is that Garcia told Greenwade he would fight any player who directed abuse towards him, a deal-breaker given what lay ahead.

Greenwade’s account was less dramatic. “He couldn’t pull the ball,” he said of Garcia. “He was a right-handed hitter – everything went to right field.” Regardless of the reason, the decision to pass on Garcia led Greenwade to Jackie Robinson. Still the only man on the job, Greenwade never spoke to Robinson while scouting him, observing him from a distance, at least in part for the sake of secrecy. The scout saw enough on the field to make his recommendation to Rickey that, despite a suspect arm, Robinson was the right fit for the Dodgers.

In December of 1945, Greenwade jumped across town, accepting an offer from the Yankees that would triple his salary. He would spend many more years in the Bronx than he had in Brooklyn, with Mantle his signature signing. Their relationship went beyond that day in Baxter Springs, with Mantle leaning on Greenwade while struggling as a 19-year-old rookie in 1951 and continuing to leverage him as an informal advisor in the years that followed.

Greenwade went on to sign a cadre of consequential Yankees, including Elston Howard, who would break the Yankees’ color barrier in 1955. In 1950, the year after his meeting with Mantle, Greenwade came out to scout the Negro League’s Kansas City Monarchs. The team’s manager, the legendary Buck O’Neil, encouraged him to take a closer look at Howard. Within a matter of days, the Yankees had acquired his contract. In a rare recommendation involving an established big leaguer, Greenwade was the man who encouraged the Yankees to trade for Kansas City’s Roger Maris, projecting greater production from the young slugger.

Greenwade retired in 1964, returning full-time to Willard, where the local high school’s ballpark still bears his name.

He died in 1986 and has remained an icon in the scouting world ever since, garnering induction into the Professional Scouts Hall of Fame as part of its second class in 2009.

Greenwade’s legacy is tangible; one need look no further than Monument Park at Yankee Stadium to see his impact. The legendary scout is directly responsible for four retired numbers out in Monument Park — those for Mantle, Howard, Maris, and Robinson, whose number is retired across baseball. Greenwade is at once a legend and an everyman, the blue collar scout who drove his Cadillac across America looking for the next great ballplayer and whose hit rate may never be equaled.

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

After cashing our best bet and same-game parlay yesterday, we're back with my Blue Jays vs. Yankees prediction for Friday night.

The Toronto Blue Jays will be in tough today as they navigate a bullpen day against the New York Yankees and Cam Schlittler, but I think their offense can help keep it close.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for August 21, and fatten that wallet before the weekend.

Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions

Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet: Blue Jays team total Over 2.5 (-125)

Don't look now, but this Toronto Blue Jays offense is hummin', and has gone Over this total in six straight games.

It's a different offense than it was the last time the Jays took on the New York Yankees and Cam Schlittler, who's limited this team to a .252 xBA across 104 plate appearances.

Offense has come from the entire lineup over the last month and change, but nobody has been hotter than Alejandro Kirk, who has 15 hits, three homers, and nine RBI across his nine-game hit streak.

Look for this team to scrape and claw to get three or more runs on the board, especially at one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the big leagues.

COVERS INTEL: Speaking of hot hitters, nobody is hotter than Ernie Clement in this matchup. Clement is 5-for-12 with a .340 xBA against Schlittler.

Blue Jays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)

Yes, the Blue Jays will be going with a bullpen day, but it's a 'pen that's ranked the seventh-best in baseball (3.74 ERA), and one that's rested thanks to Shane Bieber going seven innings yesterday. That should be enough for Toronto to keep things close in a likely low-scoring affair.

Elsewhere, Clement has a variety of ways to cash this bet, and it helps that he feels right at home at Yankee Stadium, owning a .288 average with 17 hits, 12 RBI, and two homers.

Blue Jays vs Yankees SGP

• Blue Jays +1.5
• Blue Jays team total Over 2.5
• Ernie Clement 2+ H/R/RBI

Blue Jays vs Yankees home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+550)

Kazuma Okamoto has hit two homers in his last three games, and has one against Schlittler in his rookie season, too. Okamoto's in the 83rd percentile for barrel percentage (12.5%) and is in a good spot to go yard at Yankee Stadium... again.

Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Toronto (+170) | New York (-210)
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-125) | New York -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under: Over 7 (-115) | Under 7 (-105)

Blue Jays vs Yankees trend

The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four series openers. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Yankees and game info

Blue Jays vs Yankees latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Yankees weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

The Atlanta Braves just recorded a much-needed win against the White Sox as they travel to
Milwaukee to start one of the toughest stretches of their schedule. After the Brewers the Braves must face the Dodgers. After a short break where they face a six-game stretch against the Rockies, Giants, and Nationals they face then have seven games against the Phillies with the Rays sandwiched in-between.

If the Braves want to maintain their lead in the NL East during this rough stretch of schedule, they will need to pick up on their offense, which ranks as the ninth worst in MLB in terms of total runs.

In the game today, their likely won’t be much offense from either team as we have a pitching matchup that many dream about among two likely Cy Young finalists. Chris Sale, a likely Hall of Famer will face off against phenom and Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski.

Misiorowski was the second fastest to two hundred strikeouts behind the Braves’ Spencer Strider and sports a dazzling 1.75 and 0.75 WHIP. Chris Sale has been fantastic himself with a 2.16 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over 129.0 innings while having the best HR9 and BB9 in the NL.

It will be interesting this afternoon for Sale because over his last five starts he has given up three earned runs each in two games but has given up zero in his other three starts (we are not counting that terrible scoring call last game where Dubón clearly should have been charged with an error).

Sale is clearly a veteran, but somehow many of the Brewers have not faced him much in their career. Outside of backup catcher Gary Sánchez with his twenty-nine ABs against Sale, no one else on the roster has more than twelve. Jackson Chourio is the player with twelve ABs and has been successful with an OPS of .917. There are a few other players with limited success against Sale as well. Contreras has a .888 OPS in nine ABs, Vaughn has a .804 OPS in seven ABs, and Ortiz has a .864 OPS in ten ABs.

Fortunately, all the other players who have faced Sale in the past have struggled mightily.

Misiorowski is the clear frontrunner for the Cy Young Award and that has carried over in the limited times he has faced Braves hitters. No player on the Braves have faced him more than three ABs, but also no one has an OPS over .666. Riley, Smith, Albies, and Dubón all have one hit against Misiorowski, but they were all singles.

This game may come down to the bullpen, and that is not a good sign for the Braves. The Brewers have the best bullpen ERA in MLB since the start of August with 1.57. The next best team has a 2.76. The Braves on the other hand have a bullpen ERA of 4.05 in that time span.

On paper, the Brewers seem to have an upper hand. However, anything can happen in baseball so there is a chance the Braves can pull this off. It will require the offense to catch a spark against the best pitcher on the planet or the hottest bullpen in MLB.

First pitch is at 4:10 EDT.  

Game Info

Game Time: Friday, August 21st, 4:10 pm EDT

Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI

Watch: BravesVision

Radio/Audio: 680 AM / 93.7 FM The Fan

Eighteen years ago, the Blue Jays traded Robinzon Diaz to the Pirates in exchange for Jose Bautista. At the time, the trade received little fanfare—even Bluebird Banter didn’t cover it immediately. Only later did we discuss its significance. In hindsight, it became the best trade of J.P. Ricciardi’s tenure.

The news did get into a post I did a couple of days later:

With Diaz sent to Pittsburgh to complete the Bautista trade, he comes off our top 11 prospect list. I wasn’t sure how to feel about it. Diaz had struggled that year and J.P. Arencibia likely surpassed him, but I still thought Diaz was closer to being major league ready. Looking ahead, we’d need a catcher for next season—or risk a lot of passed balls.

I missed that one.

The next day, I posted a poll about the trade: 48% of readers liked the move, while 52% did not. Amusingly, I had thought Bautista was a middle infielder back then.

A few days later, I linked to a FanGraphs story, “Pirates Plunder Toronto,” and said this:

I also shared a FanGraphs article titled “Pirates Plunder Toronto.” At the time, I disagreed with the idea that the Jays were ‘plundered.’ While I liked Diaz, I doubted he’d become a star. I figured the trade would ultimately be inconsequential for both teams. But time would prove me wrong.

Wrong again.

It took him a few days to get his first hit as a Blue Jay.

It took about a year before we realized Bautista deserved more than a platoon role.

Ultimately, the trade was a big win for Toronto. Jose Bautista compiled a 37.0 WAR as a Blue Jay, according to Baseball Reference. Diaz, by contrast, played just 44 major league games.

Jose quickly became one of my favourite players to watch. His intensity and desire to win stood out, and he regularly helped his teammates with advice and support. Sometimes, I wished he’d show more joy on the field, but critics would likely complain no matter his demeanor.

Bautista often drew criticism, which is a common burden for a team’s best player—especially when the team falls short. I remember, as a kid, watching Gary Carter get blamed for the Expos’ disappointments and wondering why the less talented players escaped such scrutiny.

Acquiring Bautista was a turning point for the franchise. The team gained swagger and identity, and Bautista became the kind of player opposing fans loved to hate. As Reggie Jackson famously said, ‘People don’t boo nobodies.’

I can’t imagine—and wouldn’t want to—what those seasons would have been like without Bautista. His presence made them far more enjoyable.

Favorite memories?

• The iconic bat flip perfectly encapsulated Jose’s style. In a critical moment, he delivered the big hit, and his reaction represented exactly how we all felt.
• I was lucky enough to be in Boston in 2010 when Jose hit his 48th and 49th home runs of the season.
• In 2009, I attended Jays games in Seattle during Jose’s first full season with Toronto. Sitting near third base, I watched as the Mariners put a runner on second and a single was hit to left field—where Jose played more often that year. Expecting a run to score, I was amazed when Jose fired a laser to home plate, nabbing Kenji Johjima. Until that moment, I hadn’t realized just how strong his arm was. Roy Halladay started that game, and with the trade deadline looming, we thought it might be his last as a Blue Jay. Ultimately, he wasn’t dealt until after the season.
• Watching him work with Chris Colabello on his defense in the outfield.
• Jose quietly declined to do interviews with Sportsnet after they featured Devon Travis in a segment where he was taken suit shopping and then expected to pay for the suit. Jose felt it was unfair to use a rookie making the league minimum for promotional purposes, especially when the purchase wasn’t voluntary.
• What stands out most is his intensity.

Jose on the Blue Jays career leaderboards:

Career bWAR position players: 1st (38.4).

Offensive bWAR: 2nd (37.0).

On-base percentage: 4th (.372) minimum 1500 PA (tied with Otto Velez).

Slugging average: 5th (.506 behind Carlos Delgado (.556)).

OPS: 4th (.875, tied with Edwin Encarnacion).

Games Played: 5th (1235).

Home runs: 2nd (288, 48 short of Delgado).

RBI: 3rd (766).

Walks: 2nd (803, 24 behind Delgado).

Heading into the season, Daylen Lile was one of the players I was most excited to see. He was coming off a stellar rookie season that was capped off by winning NL Player of the Month in September. However, he has been unable to recapture that magic for most of this season and last night’s Golden Sombrero felt like rock bottom.

Two of the things that made Lile so dominant last season was his confidence and his swing decisions. When he was at the dish towards the end of last season, Lile looked like he was in a flow state. Last night though, Lile was caught in between. He was really trying to be more selective, but in the end, he was taking strikes and swinging at balls. 

Last season, Lile’s swing decisions were his super power, but now they are his achilles heel. In 2025, Lile chased just 26.7% of the time while swinging at pitches in the zone at a 75.4% clip. Chasing less than the average hitter while being ultra-aggressive in the zone is a rare skill.

However, it is not a skill that has translated this season. Lile’s zone swing rate of 75.9% remains relatively unchanged. His chase rate has ballooned to 39% though. The swing decisions are pretty much the root of all Lile’s offensive issues this season. His exit velocities and launch angles remain nearly identical. It is the swing decisions that have doomed Lile’s sophomore season.

It is really jarring to see the drop in numbers. Last season, Lile hit .299 with an .845 OPS. This year, those numbers are down to .241 and .691. Seeing a player with the pure hitting ability of Lile batting just .241 is shocking to see. Even if Lile was to regress this season, I thought it would be due to a dip in power rather than him just not hitting for average.

A player as gifted as Lile should not have an 88 wRC+. This is a negative season for Lile, don’t get me wrong, but I still think the talent is there. Even this year, he has had his moments, particularly against the Reds. He has 15 homers on the year, which is impressive. His defense has also taken major steps.

Honestly, the work he put in defensively may have come at the cost of his bat. Just about every clip I saw from Lile this offseason was him working on his defense. That made a lot of sense given his -10 Fielding Run Value. The work he put in has paid off as well. This season Lile is at +3 FRV. However, it seems like that work may have come at the expense of his bat.

Unlike Dylan Crews, I do think Lile has shown enough both last season and even this year to have a starting job in 2027. Next season is a huge year in Lile’s development though. The 23 year old will have to show that 2025 was no fluke and that he can be a productive regular.

I think Lile has it in him and that this season will help him in the long run. Blake Butera has spoken multiple times about how Lile is very hard on himself. I believe that this year will help Lile be better able to deal with failure and it will teach him some real lessons.

Simply put, Daylen Lile has been punched in the mouth by the baseball gods this year. He can either get off the mat or stay down. Based on what I know about Lile, I think he will get off the mat. It might not be this season, but he will get up eventually. The talent and work ethic is just too strong for me to give up on. However, this has been a true sophomore slump and hopefully Lile comes out the other side better than ever.

Syracuse Mets 5, Worcester Red Sox 0 (BOX)

Not a whole lot going on offensively for the Woo Sox on Thursday, facing a bullpen game from Syracuse (NYM). Brett Harris had two of the team’s four hits, and Franklin Arias was 1-for-3 with a walk and an error. Isiah Kiner-Falefa continued his rehab, going 0-for-3 at shortstop.

Gage Ziehl started, and allowed three earned runs in four innings. Noah Song was dominant in relief, striking out seven batters and allowing a run in three innings.

On Friday, Blake Wehunt (1-1, 4.05) gets the start for the Woo Sox at 6:35.

Reading Fightin Phils 11, Portland Sea Dogs 1 (BOX)

The final score does not reflect how this game unfolded, as it entered the eighth inning with a score of 3 to 1 before Reading (PHI) broke it wide open.

Hayden Mullins started and allowed just one earned run in five innings, and struck out eight batters. In the fifth inning, trailing 2-0, center fielder Will Turner hit his 14th home run of the season, one of his two hits on the day. A rehabbing Roman Anthony went 0-for-3 with a strikeout.

Relievers Caleb Bolden, Jeremy Wu-Yelland, and Griffin Kilander combined to allow nine runs in the late innings, turning it into a laugher.

On Friday, Devin Futrell (1-0, 5.40) takes the bump for Portland at 6:00.

Greenville Drive 8, Winston-Salem Dash 7 (BOX)

Finally, some offense to speak of across the Sox minor league affiliates on Thursday. The top of the order for the Drive powered things, with Luke Heyman (3-for-4), Isaiah Jackson, and Maximus Martin all providing multi-hit efforts. Heyman and Martin each hit solo home runs in the seventh inning as well, quickly erasing a 6-4 lead for the Dash (CWS). What’s cooler than hitting a ball onto someone’s balcony in straightaway center field?

Trailing again in the eighth, 7-6, Stanley Tucker tied the game with a double before Jackson scored him with a game-winning sacrifice fly. Trennor O’Donnell recorded his first win, allowing a run in three innings and finishing the game.

The Drive will send Dylan Brown (3-7, 4.06) to the hill on Friday at 6:45.

Wilson Warbirds 11, Salem RidgeYaks 10 (BOX)

What on earth was going on in the seventh inning last night?

The Warbirds (MIL) opened up a 10-1 lead in the top of the seventh by scoring six runs, before the RidgeYaks finally woke up. Featuring RBI doubles from D’Angelo Ortiz and Colton Coates, a two-run homer by Louis Andujar, among other things, the RidgeYaks cut the lead to one but could not complete the comeback.

Catcher Franklin Primera went 2-for-4 with an RBI, to improve his slash line to .339/.481/.537. The 19-year-old has a 171 wRC+ over 34 games at the level and recently skyrocketed to the number three prospect at Sox Prospects.

On Friday, Leighton Finley (6-4, 4.75) will take the ball at 6:35.

After seven innings of one-run ball against the Marlins on Wednesday night, Aaron Nola’s month of August has been a return to normal for the veteran right-hander. Across four starts and 23 innings of work, Nola has a 2.74 ERA with 30 strikeouts to just seven walks. Really good results from anyone but especially a pitcher that seemed like an automatic loss roughly six weeks ago.

It is not all perfect, some of the results are a bit smoke and mirrors. He has a 100% strand rate this month, which isn’t sustainable and hitters are pulling the ball a lot more, which could be scary. Nola has not exactly returned to his prime years, but it’s the kind of hot stretch of pitching that seemed hard to imagine given the last two seasons.

Even if we make the safe assumption that Nola will not maintain a sub-three ERA moving forward, there are still plenty of positive takeaways to have moving forward.

Lefties

Nola’s struggles against left-handed hitters have been well documented all year. He came into August allowing a .528 slug to lefties because he allowed 16 home runs against them and plenty of more damage. Another troubling issue was his walk rate spiking to 11.2%. It was a combination of getting crushed whenever he attacked them in the zone but doing his best not to go after them consistently. Probably the worst combination of the two.

In August, lefties are hitting just .207 with a .310 slugging against him. The walk rate has dropped down to 6.5% but the biggest improvement has to be in his strikeout rate, up to 32.3% along with better quality of contact.

Whats the reason? Some of it is probably to do with the opponents he’s faced. His four starts have come against the Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins, and Miami Marlins.

The Nationals threw several left-handed and switch hitters against him, including James Wood and CJ Abrams. There is no handwaving there but that also happened to be his worst start during this stretch, even if it was still solid. The Blue Jays and Twins rank in the bottom six in wRC+ for left-handed hitters, so they were good matchups on paper for Nola.

As for the Marlins, Liam Hicks was traded to the Rays at the deadline and Kyle Stowers is on the injured list. Strength of schedule is certainly a big factor but it does not tell the full story.

The biggest difference has to be in Nola’s slight velocity jump, going from 92.2 mph over the first four months to 92.7 in August. It is still allowing a .571 slugging on his four-seam to lefties but it is far better than before, a .750 slug from southpaws over the prior four months.

Being able to trust it in the zone just a bit more has allowed him to throw more strikes and walk fewer hitters. His curveball is also playing better against them because of it, with a 41% whiff rate against southpaws this month.

Righties

There have been some experiments all year with how Nola is attacking right handed hitters. He began the year leaning on a three-fastball approach with fewer curveballs. It didn’t work. He then nearly abandoned the cutter entirely in May. It still wasn’t working.

He then went into a full platoon pitching plan, leaning heavily on the sinker and curveball. That didn’t work either.

Since the start of July, Nola started to reintroduce the changeup to right-handed hitters to help protect the fastball but August feels like the month where the mix has fully come together. He is spamming the curveball 38.4% of the time, leaning just enough into the sinker and cutter, keeping the changeup usage around 12-13%, and throwing enough fastballs to keep hitters honest but not enough to get crushed.

It’s probably the best balance of all the different ideas Nola has tried this year. He tried a slider phase but it’s gone and he doesn’t really need it when he already can throw five different pitches to them.

What to think:

Well, no one should tell you what to think but if you want an opinion… (I’m done with dad jokes now).

It is unreasonable to expect Nola to keep up this exact pace but there is no reason to think Nola is cooked. It took a lot of different things and conclusions, and sometimes just throwing harder but he has found the proper adjustments that should keep him viable.

Projecting beyond 2026 is hard to do. He just turned 33 years old and the difference between the 6+ ERA pitcher he was to begin this season and what he is now is slightly different but not enough to forget the recent past. If he comes into next season throwing 91 and cannot reach for any more at that point, everything that was said here probably doesn’t matter.

But, at least for the rest of this season, Aaron Nola is good enough to be the number four starter in a postseason game and face roughly 18 hitters. He was not that guy a month ago.