The NBA is unpredictable. It's why we love it.
That unpredictability can come on the court — nobody was picking Indiana to make the Finals at this time last season. However, the wilder swings come off the court in trades — Luka Doncic to the Lakers? That was impossible, yet here we are.
Here are my five bold predictions for this season.
1) Lauri Markkanen traded to Pistons
Detroit is a young team on the rise. Cade Cunningham made the leap to All-NBA last season, and he seems poised for another step forward. Detroit is betting on a few things to help the team take the next step. First, Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson need to replace the production off the bench that Michael Beasley gave last season. Second, the young core — Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren, Ron Holland II and Ausar Thompson, among others — to take the next step in the evolution of their games.
All that's still not enough to contend. If the Pistons want to compete with the top teams in the East, they need another high-level scorer and shot creator, ideally one in the frontcourt.
Enter Lauri Markkanen.
Markkanen is a shot-creating, floor-spacing spacing scoring power forward who would be the kind of upgrade over Tobias Harris at the four that could make the Pistons to a genuine postseason threat. The Finnish All-Star is on a rebuilding Jazz team, and while he wants to be in Utah and the Jazz haven't seriously shopped him yet, the door is open.
The challenge for Detroit (or any team looking at him) is matching Markkanen's $46.4 million salary. Well, that and knowing that the Ainge family will have Utah asking for the world. It's not that hard to make the salaries fit for a trade (Tobias Harris, one player making around $8-10 million, and one player on a minimum contract) and the Pistons have first-round picks they can throw in. The sticking point: Utah will ask for Jaden Ivey. The Pistons would try to make the young player going back maybe Holland II or Thompson. Would Detroit give up Ivey for Markkanen? Also, for the Jazz to take on three players for one, some other roster moves have to be made.
It would not be easy, but in the end, it just makes too much sense: Detroit needs one more high-level shot creator and an upgrade at the four, Utah is rebuilding and needs young players and picks. It's going to get done.
2) Giannis Antetokounmpo wins MVP
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the favorites to defend his MVP title, he is the head of the snake on the best team in the league. Nikola Jokic was a close second in the minds of voters last year and this season has a better team around him (any slight dip in stats is balanced out by the added wins). "Skinny" Luka Doncic is ready to lead the Lakers and showed at EuroBasket just how sharp he is.
Ignore those favorites, give me Giannis Antetokounmpo for MVP.
This isn't an out-of-nowhere bold prediction. Antetokounmpo is a former MVP who averaged 30.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 6.5 assists a game last season. This season, with Damian Lillard recovering in Portland, even more shot creation will be asked of Antetokounmpo — who else on this roster can handle the rock? That's not good for the Bucks when we're talking playoff runs, but in the regular season in a down East, the Bucks will win enough to be top six and Antetokounmpo will put up undeniable numbers.
The competition is tight, but this is Antetokounmpo's year to get back to the top of the mountain.
3) Rockets trade for point guard
Houston coach Ime Udoka is leaning into the franchise's young stars in the wake of veteran Fred VanVleet tearing his ACL (he is out for the season). Udoka is expected to put the ball in Amen Thompson's hands at the point, but second-year guard Reed Sheppard is going to get his chance, too.
By February, Houston is going to be trading for a point guard.
The Rockets were title contenders with VanVleet, and will realize they need some of what he brought to the table the young stars can't replace. VanVleet provided a steady hand, limiting turnovers and putting players in advantageous positions. Thompson has the explosiveness to score, and Sheppard can shoot, but neither is an experienced floor general.
The question is, who is out there for Houston to trade for? Jrue Holiday in Portland is available and exactly the kind of point guard that would fit, but the three years and $104 million on his contract is going to be too steep a price for the Rockets. The cost in assets to get Derrick White or Payton Pritchard out of Boston is going to be steep. The Rockets should monitor how things go with Andrew Nembhard in Indiana. There are other guys, like Jose Alvarado or CJ McCollum, who the Rockets can consider, and likely another point guard name or two will shake loose.
One way or another, expect Houston to decide they need to chase someone.
4) Anthony Edwards leads NBA in scoring
This doesn't feel like that bold a statement or a stretch, but it might surprise some people.
Edwards finished fourth in scoring last season with 27.6 points per game. This season, with an aging Mike Conley at the point, more offensive responsibility will likely fall to Edwards. Julius Randle will get points in the paint, while role players such as Naz Reid and Donte DiVencenzo will also get theirs. Perhaps Rob Dillingham takes a step forward off the bench. However, ultimately, everything the Timberwolves do on offense runs through Edwards.
Plus, Edwards is the kind of young star and personality to chase this if he's close to it. These kinds of personal accolades seem to matter to him.
5) Clippers still finish top six in West
The Kawhi Leonard “no-show” endorsement deal scandal is the kind of distraction that can sink a ship. Or a young team.
Except, the Clippers are not a young team — they are stacked with older veterans who have seen it all, done it all and know how to focus on the task at hand.
Tyronn Lue has played through and then coached through enough distractions to fill two books. James Harden has been at the heart of rumors and distractions for so long that these latest allegations will be water off a duck's back… or tight beard, to him. Leonard is going to be Leonard, and on the court, when healthy, that's still an All-Star (if not All-NBA) level player. Chris Paul is the kind of veteran leader a team needs in times like these. Ivica Zubac is at his peak and has been around the block. Newcomers Bradley Beal, Brook Lopez and John Collins are not going to be rattled. The same is true of Derrick Jones Jr. and Bogdan Bogdanovic.
This is a quality Clippers roster that, despite losing Norman Powell, should be as good or better than last year's 50-win regular season team. The playoffs are another matter, but for the regular season this is still a top-six team in the West that avoids the play-in.
Honorable mention: Victor Wembanyama finishes top five in MVP voting. He's going to make a massive leap this season, which should scare the league.
