Last time, we reset the roster for the offseason. That was the easy part: cutting a bunch of guys we didn’t need anymore and bringing home our 60-day-IL journeymen. J.J. Picollo mentioned in the postseason presser that the team was prepared to make some painful trades, and while they wanted to be aggressive in adding to the roster, they preferred not to be aggressive in spending money. So I decided the next step for rebuilding the roster, doing things my own way but in accordance with the guidance ownership seems to have provided, meant I should start by making some splashy trades and then come back and do my free agency work once I saw what that did to my payroll.
In keeping with the old Offseason Simulation tradition, I chose to negotiate against another SB Nation writer rather than to simply write up some trades I liked. I chose my Royals Rundown podcast co-host Jacob Milham both because he was convenient and because I felt like I could trust him to force me to give up more than I might otherwise have been willing to do if I were negotiating against myself or just using Baseball Trade Values. You can listen to us negotiate together on the latest episode of Royals Rundown, but I was very pleased with how he pushed back on me, and not every deal I wanted to do was available to me, forcing me to pivot a couple of times. He’s planning to write why he did these trades from his own perspective later, so keep an eye out for that.
Ultimately, I still think I got some pretty good trades done, so let’s go over what we did, then we’ll figure out where that leaves the roster and the payroll before I start looking into what free agents I could sign next time.
Trade 1: Acquire Reid Detmers from the Angels for Blake Mitchell, David Shields, and Jack Slightom
It’s funny, this was probably the most painful trade, but not nearly as painful as I feared it was going to be going in. Sure, I gave up a couple of top-100 guys (or fringe top-100 guys, depending on the outlet) but I started my offseason acquisitions with a bang, acquiring the guy I expect to lead my pitching staff for at least the next two seasons.
Detmers has always been an exceptionally talented pitcher, and he finally put it all together last year for the Angels. He accrued 4.9 fWAR with a 20% K-BB% leading to a 3.36 ERA and 3.29 SIERA. He got off to a bit of a slow start, but from June on, he had a 2.62 ERA in 20 starts. He’s going to be my Opening Day starter, and if we went a bit deeper, I’d probably already be working on negotiating an extension for him. He only just turned 27, and he’s not been especially injury-prone; it just took him a while to figure out the big leagues.
I wanted an ace for the staff; Detmers was my first target; and I managed to get him without giving up either of my two most valuable trade chips. According to MLB Pipeline, I gave up the team’s #4, #5, and #12 prospects. I went into thinking I was going to have to give up at least one of Angeibel Gomez or Kendry Chourio, though, and I managed to keep both of them.
Trade 2: Acquire George Kirby from the Mariners for Ramon Ramirez, Lucas Braun, and Dash Albus
I initially approached Jacob as Jerry Dipoto, hoping to get the last year of Logan Gilbert. But Jacob wanted a lot for Gilbert, who has been the better pitcher the last couple of years. Unfortunately, the asking price was more than I was willing to give up for one year of him. Kirby hasn’t been quite as good the past couple of years as he was before, but he’s still been more than serviceable. I also think a change of scenery and introduction to a different, good pitching coach could help him find whatever it is he’s lost.
The Royals have experience with pitchers who throw the entire kitchen sink like Kirby. Though, honestly, looking at the above chart, I wonder if the answer might be as simple as throwing his four-seamer less and his sinker more.
Regardless, instead of one year of Gilbert, I got two years of Kirby. And even if he isn’t a guaranteed number-two quality starter, I think he can easily slot in as my third-best starter with some possible upside. That means two trades in, and I’ve already got a rotation with four starting pitchers I feel really good about.
Yes, I had to give up my other high-octane minor league catcher and the freshly acquired Braun, but I think Kirby’s certainty is higher than Braun’s likely ceiling, and after looking at how the Rays and Brewers constructed their playoff rosters, I think aggression in trading prospects for more known quantities in young big leaguers is the path forward. Kirby may not be that young at 29 next season, but he beats the 36 and 37 of Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo.
Braun is ranked as the Royals’ 16th-best prospect, and Ramirez as the 7th-best according to Pipeline. Albus isn’t ranked. At this point, I’ve made a couple of really big deals, but I still have holes to fill. Time for a smaller-scale match.
Trade 3: Acquire Ryan Feltner from the Rockies for Felix Arronde and Darwin Rodriguez
Ryan Feltner was someone I identified early on as a low-cost guy who I think might have traits that Brian Sweeney and friends can polish into a much better pitcher. It also probably wouldn’t hurt to get him out of Colorado, even though, by some measures, he’s been a better pitcher at home.
I was particularly interested in how the slider and sweeper – two pitch types the Royals have had a lot of success with – grade out well, but perform exceptionally poorly. I really like the extension numbers and his ability to pitch in the zone, too. I’m not counting on him to be in my rotation, but I’ll give him a shot to compete with Seth Lugo and Tony Gonsolin for the final spot, with the losers becoming swingmen and the first guys into the rotation when someone gets hurt.
This is kind of a funny trade because Feltner is a non-tender candidate for the Rockies, but Arronde – despite being the Royals’ 21st-ranked prospect by Pipeline – is a Rule 5 problem. I didn’t choose to protect him. So we’re both giving up players we didn’t think we were going to get to keep.
Trade 4: Acquire Dylan Crews from Nationals for Daniel Lynch IV and Sean Gamble
The Royals need a right-handed center fielder platoon partner regardless of which of their three current internal candidates for the position they have – though, again, I’ve traded Kyle Isbel, so I’m down to two. Dylan Crews has a huge prospect pedigree, but he hasn’t lived up to it. Trading for Crews means I don’t have to spend the money in free agency it would take do something like bring back Lane Thomas, with perhaps more future upside if he can finally play up to the talent that got him drafted second overall in 2023.
I initially thought about trying to deal Yandel Ricardo straight up for Crews, but Jacob made me aware that if I tried that, he’d simply hang up on me. There were other options I could target, but Crews felt like the move I could make with the highest upside. So I decided to bite the bullet and offer Sean Gamble, too. Then Jacob surprised me. Turns out the Nationals need some bullpen help as they want to try to be a bit more competitive next year, so they wanted the Royals’ most reliable reliever from last season. That was an easy call for me because I feel like Lynch is cruising for a relief collapse, especially since he’s made it clear he wants to be a starter, and I wonder if that could affect his excitement for the game if I shoved him back into a relief role. Daniel Lynch IV was never going to make it to 2027 with the Royals if I had anything to say about it, and he did way more for me than I thought he could when Jacob-as-Anirudh Kilambi asked for him to get this deal done.
The new 26-man roster and fallout
Before I start trying to sign some free agents, it’s time to pause and see where we’re at, how much we still have left to do, and see how much money I have left to do it with. I’m not using a hard-and-fast limit because John Sherman says he’ll always listen for the right deal, but I’m probably aiming to be around $160-$165 million in payroll.
The roster
The position players:
- C Salvador Perez
- C Carter Jensen
- 1B Vinnie Pasquantino
- 2B Michael Massey
- 3B Maikel Garcia
- SS Bobby Witt Jr.
- OF Jac Caglianone
- OF Carson Roccaforte
- OF Dylan Crews
- OF Isaac Collins
- OF John Rave
- UT Nick Loftin
- UT Tyler Tolbert
And the pitchers:
- SP Reid Detmers
- SP Noah Cameron
- SP Michael Wacha
- SP George Kirby
- SP Seth Lugo
- RHP Ryan Feltner
- RHP Lucas Erceg
- RHP Nate Pearson
- RHP Steven Cruz
- LHP Connor Thomas
- LHP Anthony Gose
- RHP Nolan Hoffman
- RHP Tony Gonsolin
The 40-man roster crunch and current salary
I’ve added four players to the 40-man roster, but I only traded away two. I had two spots open, though. So that leaves me at 40! When I sign free agents, I’m going to have to start DFA-ing guys, but that’s a problem for next time.
Using MLB Trade Rumors projections for all of the arbitration-eligible guys, and factoring in Carlos Estévez’s buyout, my payroll is currently sitting at just a touch under $126 million. I’ve still got plenty of room for at least one big free agent and some smaller ones. What do you think so far?
