Category: Sports News

The Yankees made a flurry of roster moves ahead of Sunday afternoon’s series finale against the Toronto Blue Jays, activating Cody Bellinger from the injured list, sending Ryan Weathers to the IL with a left forearm flexor strain, and recalling pitcher Brendan Beck from Triple-A Scranton.

The return of Bellinger, who has been out since July 25th with a left hamstring strain, was anticipated for several days. The left fielder had begun a rehab assignment with the RailRiders on Thursday, and after one game as the designated hitter and one in the outfield, declared himself “ready to go” yesterday afternoon. In anticipation of the move, the Yankees sent Max Schuemann, himself recently recalled when Ryan McMahon went on the shelf with a left thumb sprain the other day, back to the minors last night.

Weathers going on the IL does not come as a surprise, either, as he left yesterday’s game in the fourth inning with left elbow discomfort. While speaking to reporters yesterday, Weathers expressed hope that he would be able to return this season, but the official diagnosis suggests that he faces an uphill battle: back in 2020, Dr. Christopher Ahmad published research indicating that pitchers missed an average of 117 days for a forearm strain — and that’s assuming the absence of an underlying UCL tear that will require Tommy John surgery. It’s not officially a season-ending injury, but at this point, the odds are against him.

As manager Aaron Boone hinted, Weathers’ only hope is that it’s a minor elbow barking and that he can at least return in a bullpen role.

To replace Weathers on the roster, the Yankees recalled Brendan Beck from Scranton.

The 27-year-old rookie has made two appearances for the big league club this season, one on May 7th, the other on July 4th. Neither went particularly well, as he has allowed seven runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings, walking five and striking out four. At this point, the Yankees have yet to announce their starters for the Astros series, it’s unclear exactly how the team will handle the rotation going forward. In theory, the team may be able to skip Weathers’ spot in the rotation thanks to tomorrow’s off day, using Beck as an extra long man in the bullpen until Max Fried returns to the rotation next weekend (assuming, of course, that Fried misses the minimum 15 days). They also can just roll with a bullpen game in that spot, employing Beck as the bulk pitcher. Elmer Rodríguez could see a return as well.

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Stop worrying about going to work tomorrow! We have home run props to cash! Here are my three favorite home run props and MLB picks for tonight’s MLB slate, with Yordan Alvarez and Shohei Ohtani leading the way.

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Yordan Alvarez	+344
Shohei Ohtani	+238
Jo Adell	+307
💲Today's HR parlay	+18780

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+344)

Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez has been generating far too many hard-hit balls over his last few games, with four balls hit over 100 MPH since August 18. Over his last 10 games, he's maintained a .467 SLG and .200 ISO while owning a 24% ground-ball rate and 52% hard-hit rate.

Alvarez enters with one of the highest matchup ratings on the day over at Batters-Box, where he covers every single pitch in Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins' pitch mix. On top of that, the big fella is leaving the yard over 33% of the time across 24 elite ratings at home this season.

Over the last 30 left-handed hitters Perkins has faced, he owns a sub-8.00 ERA while allowing 3.18 HR/9, a 57% hard-hit rate, 19% barrel rate, and 33% ground-ball rate. Those left-handed hitters own a .443 xBA, .855 xSLG, and .402 ISO during that span.

Snagging Alvarez at nearly +350 to leave the yard today feels like a gift. Take this down to +300.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, NBCS-California

Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+238)

Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani draws Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, who's been struggling a ton against left-handed hitters this season. Especially across the last 30 he's faced, he owns a 14.40 ERA, 10.50 xERA, and 5.70 xFIP while allowing a 50% hard hit rate. Left-handed hitters during that stretch have posted a .475 xBA, .648 xSLG and .488 xwOBA.

Ohtani has been hitting the cover off the ball as of late, but he has not left the yard since the 18th. Since then, he has crushed four balls above 104.3 MPH. Over his last 10 games, he's maintained a .667 SLG and .385 ISO while posting a nearly 60% hard-hit rate and 18.5% barrel rate.

The megastar also enters with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he's left the yard 25% of the time he has been rated elite this season (25 games).

The price will never be overly attractive for Ohtani, but with how poorly Mlodzinski has been pitching, +238 is worth backing. Take this down to +220, or find a boost.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SportsNet Los Angeles, SportsNet Pittsburgh

Home run pick: Jo Adell (+307)

• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, CLEG

Today’s HR combo

Yordan Alvarez	Trade Now +18780
Shohei Ohtani
Jo Adell

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The Yankees have received some good and bad news on Ryan Weathers. 

The team officially placed the left-hander on the 15-day IL with a left forearm flexor strain. 

Aaron Boone said that he'll now go through a 2-to-4 week no-throwing period, but the early prognosis is that he should be able to play a role for the Yanks down the stretch. 

"Big picture, obviously some really good news," the skipper explained. "We'll try and get this thing calmed down here, and hopefully we'll be able to get him back in some capacity before the end."

Boone wouldn't commit to Weathers returning as a starter, but feels he'll be able to help in some way. 

While the training staff is still drawing up an exact recovery schedule, the lefty said himself that he missed around a month with a similar strain while with the Marlins, and this one has been deemed less severe. 

The injury occurred when he broke off an 0-1 sweeper to Toronto's Myles Straw on Saturday, and forcing him to leave his outing mid at-bat during the top of the fourth inning. 

Though Weathers is eventually expected to return, this is another big blow to the injury-ravaged Yanks. 

The 26-year-old has had a bit of an up-and-down first season in pinstripes, but he's been extremely steady of late, entering play on Saturday with a 1.94 ERA over his last seven starts. 

While he's working his way back, the Yanks will likely keep Will Warren in the rotation, even when Max Fried (elbow) is ready to return from an IL-stint of his own.  

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The brooms are out and waiting as the Los Angeles Dodgers (-257) hope to complete a sweep over the Pittsburgh Pirates (+245) in Sunday's series finale. 

Blake Snell gives the Boys in Blue a substantial pitching advantage, so I'm eyeing the run line with my Pirates vs. Dodgers predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, August 23.

Who will win Pirates vs Dodgers today: Dodgers -1.5 (-121)

When he's healthy, Blake Snell is among the best to do it. With a 116 Stuff+, 2.16 xERA, and 22.2% K-BB%, Snell is back in peak form and gives the Los Angeles Dodgers a massive advantage on the bump. 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have struggled to hit left-handed pitching all year, and they have a measly 73 wRC+ against southpaws this month.

On the flip side, opener Lake Bachar makes way for Carmen Mlodzinski, who has an unsavory 6.95 ERA and 1.77 WHIP since the All-Star break. L.A. will put up a crooked number, so I'd play their run line up to -130.

COVERS INTEL: Pittsburgh has the fourth-highest SwStr% (11.9%) and the third-highest K% (28.3%) against lefties this month, which is a concern against Blake Snell (16.7% SwStr%).

Pirates vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-112)

There's expected to be an uptick in runs scored given the pristine weather conditions for the offense: temps in the mid-90s and winds of 6-10 mph blowing out to right-center. 

Mlodzinki's second-percentile xBA (.295) and second-percentile hard-hit rate (47.7%) are massive red flags. L.A. has a league-best .264 xBA against RHP, and those hits will turn into loud contact given the weather. An offensive explosion is imminent. 

While Snell has been dominant, he's likely capped at 90 pitches. L.A.'s bullpen has routinely fumbled the bag, so it wouldn't be a surprise if the visitors score a few late runs. I'd play this to -120.

Pirates vs Dodgers home run prediction: Freddie Freeman (+442)

Mlodzinski has been bashed by left-handed hitters (.285/.352/.447 splits, seven home runs), so I'm targeting a left-handed Dodger, especially with the wind blowing out to their pull side. 

Freddie Freeman hits righties well (147 wRC+) and sees an uptick in his power (.185 ISO). We're getting a good price since he's been in a cold stretch, but this is a perfect opportunity to send one flying over the fence. 

The veteran has tremendous numbers against splitters (7.1 runs above average per 100 pitches) and four-seamers (1.8) from righties, Mlodzinski's two most frequently thrown offerings to lefties. 

Pirates vs Dodgers weather

Expect an uptick in offense given the hot temperatures and 10 mph wind blowing out.

Pirates vs Dodgers odds

• Moneyline: Pirates +245 | Dodgers -257
• Run line: Pirates +1.5 (+113) | Dodgers -1.5 (-117)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+113) | Under 8.5 (-117)

Pirates vs Dodgers trend

The Pirates are 0-3 on the run line in Carmen Mlodzinski's last three games. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Dodgers.

How to watch Pirates vs Dodgers and game info

Pirates vs Dodgers latest injuries

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Justin Crawford occupies a bit of a strange space. A rookie, and former first-rounder at that, usually has the eyes of a city on him, and the resulting pressure. But while plenty of Phillies have found themselves in the spotlight this season, Crawford has mostly flown under the radar, despite a rough debut at the plate. That’s the result of being on a veteran-heavy team: a youth movement would certainly be appreciated; but the Philadelphia faithful are mostly focused on how their vets are doing, and there have been a few other, more-established Phillies whose struggles have taken up the majority of the fanbase’s appetite for ire. Contra J.K. Simmons’ character in Whiplash (or any of countless similar hardass mentors from fiction or reality), this is a good thing; a rookie is going to struggle, and being able to work through those difficulties with relative privacy (as much as a professional athlete can get) is a boon. That being said, with most of his rookie season complete, it’s worth checking in on his progression.

Crawford’s August has been the best month of his career. He’s slashing (prior to Saturday’s game) .347/.370/.490, and each figure would be the best of its kind he’s posted in any month if they hold. He’s posting a 131 wRC+, which would make this the first month of his career as an above-average hitter. There may be some luck involved in that (he’s posting a relatively high BABIP of .370 in this eighth month of 2026), but there’s some reason to believe that he’s reaping the rewards of a changed approach at the plate.

Crawford’s willingness to swing is roughly where it was at the beginning of the season: he started out his career swinging at 50.1% of pitches in April, showed a more swing-happy approach in June and July, and then settled down to a 53.6% rate in August. That does not sound like a particularly significant change. But if we look at a more granular level, we see that he’s switched things up in a greater way.

At the beginning of the season, Crawford was most willing to swing at offspeed pitches, and least willing to swing at fastballs. There’s been some fluctuations throughout the campaign, but in August, we see a clear reversal of where he was in his first month, the result of both a greater and gradual willingness to swing at fastballs and a sudden refusal to accept offspeed offerings.

Although (like that Powers of Ten video I saw in middle school) we can go even deeper. Crawford hasn’t rejected offspeed pitches outright; he’s got a more discerning palate than that. Rather, it’s the offspeed pitches out of the zone that he’s starting to turn away. His swing rate against offspeeds has dropped over the course of the season (92.9% in April, 84.6% in June, 80% in August), but the real change is in his refusal to chase them: 55.2% chase rate in April, 50% in June, 16.7% in August.

He’s become more selective at the plate, and has begun to hunt fastballs, as well as offspeed pitches in the zone. Perhaps relatedly, his bat speed has gradually sped up over the course of the season:

Maybe a greater confidence in his ability to see what’s coming at him, or a greater confidence in his approach to it, is getting his bat moving faster, and producing better results at the plate.

A single month of a new approach isn’t much of a sample size to go on. A single season, really, isn’t all that much of one given how many plate appearances it takes to get a solid impression of what’s real and what’s noise. Crawford has a whole lot of time to figure things out, and we have a whole lot of time left before we can really start to figure out who he is. Still, his approach at the plate in August offers an interesting glimpse into how a talented young player is testing, tweaking, and changing.

When I first signed up to do Ron Blomberg’s birthday piece, I was excited to be able to tell the story of the first man to bat in Major League Baseball as a designated hitter. As I dove deeper into Blomberg’s life, I learned I had the privilege of writing a piece about a heck of an athlete, a great teammate, and an incredible man.

Ronald Mark Blomberg
Born: August 23, 1948 (Atlanta, GA)
Yankees Tenure: 1969-76

If you do not know, Blomberg just might be one of the greatest high school athletes of his generation. At Druid Hills High School in Atlanta, he was an All-American in basketball and baseball. Blomberg had over 125 basketball scholarship offers and another 100 from football coaches despite only playing one season. These were not just from random schools sprinkled around the country. John Wooden of UCLA basketball and Bear Bryant of Alabama football both personally traveled down to Georgia to offer Blomberg a scholarship.

To say Blomberg had options is the biggest undersell of the century. However great those offers were, Blomberg loved baseball and he loved the New York Yankees. Even growing up in the South, the pinstripes and bright lights of NYC enamored the young Blomberg. As fate would have it, during the Druid Hills graduation ceremony no less, the Yankees would use the first overall pick in the 1967 draft to select the big, left-handed-hitting outfielder who idolized and was dubbed the next Mickey Mantle.

Blomberg turned down all his college offers and signed to start his professional journey with the Yankees. That summer he went to the Appalachian League and immediately showed what made him the top pick, batting .297 with 10 home runs and 55 RBIs in 66 games. Following that success, the Yankees moved Blomberg to Class A for the 1968 season. They also started to get the teenager some reps at first base. Making two adjustments saw his offensive numbers decline, but the Yankees still saw fit to promote him to Double-A after the season concluded.

The summer of 1969 would prove to be a great one for Blomberg. After finding his swing again, he hit .284 with 19 home runs and was impressive enough to earn a September call-up to the big leagues. Blomberg made his debut on the 10th of the month and would end up playing in four games, going 3-for-6 at the plate. It was a small cup, but a cup of coffee in the big leagues!

Triple-A Syracuse would be Blomberg’s home for the 1970 and part of the 1971 seasons. Following some more seasoning in the minors, Blomberg got the call again in June of 1971. This time he would stick. In 64 games, Blomberg hit .322 with seven home runs, appearing in all of his games as an outfielder. The ever-rebuilding CBS Era Yankees finished fourth in the division with an 82-80 record.

Ralph Houk decided to move Blomberg to first base prior to the 1972 season to platoon him with the right-handed bat of Felipe Alou. In this more specific role, Blomberg slashed .268/.355/.488 with what would be his career-high 14 home runs.

Baseball—or rather, the American League—changed in 1973. For the first time at the highest level, there would be a full-time hitter in place of the pitcher in the batting order. The first man to get an at-bat listed as the starting designated hitter was none other than Blomberg, who worked a walk to force in a run at Fenway on April 6th against the Red Sox, forever cementing his place in baseball legend. His No. 12 jersey and bat were sent to the National Baseball Hall of Fame, where they are still displayed in Cooperstown.

The Yankees again struggled in 1973, going 80-82 and finishing fourth in the division. However, Blomberg had arguably his best season, slashing .329/.395/.498 and setting career-highs in hits, runs, and RBIs while appearing in 100 games and splitting time between first base and DH.

Heading into the 1974 season, first base got crowded with the likes of Chris Chambliss, Otto Vélez, and Bob Oliver. Blomberg shifted back to the outfield but appeared in most of his games that season as the DH. In 90 games, he slashed .311/.375/.481 with 10 home runs. The team went 89-73 on the season, good for second in the East, and for the first time in a while, things seemed to be looking up for the club.

Then in 1975, the wheels started to come off the bus for Blomberg. It started with a shoulder strain that was not supposed to be serious and then cost him over a month of the season. When Blomberg came back in July, he tore a muscle while taking a swing. Opting for a brace, the muscle healed and surgery was not needed. Blomberg’s final line in 1975 was .255/.336/.481 in only 34 games.

Spring training of 1976 saw Blomberg enter healthy. Unfortunately, that would not be the case by the time the team broke camp. In the final game, Blomberg hurt his shoulder again, and this time it would require surgery. Still just 27 years old, Blomberg only appeared in one game on the year. The Yankees went on to claim the team’s first pennant since 1964 but were swept by Cincinnati’s Big Red Machine in the World Series.

Blomberg initially had a clean bill of health and another solid spring training in 1977. However, again, injuries would rear their ugly head. This time, instead of the shoulder, it was the knee. Blomberg went full speed into a concrete wall and shattered his knee, literally. The collision resulted in a shattered left kneecap, four broken bones in the knee area, and torn knee cartilage. The injury required extensive surgery, which included removing half of his kneecap and removing floating bone chips. On three different occasions, surgeons had to break up scar tissue in his knee to allow it to bend while he recovered.

Needless to say, Blomberg missed the 1977 championship campaign. He had to watch from the dugout as the “Bronx Zoo” Yankees went on to win the World Series over the Dodgers. Yankees owner George Steinbrenner and his teammates held Blomberg in such high regard for helping build the team up from the bottom that he presented Blomberg with an official 1977 World Series championship ring even though he did not get to appear in a game during the season.

The less-than-storybook championship ended Blomberg’s time in pinstripes. Making one last comeback attempt, Blomberg signed with the White Sox ahead of the 1978 season. On Opening Day, he hit a game-tying home run in the bottom of the ninth. That would be the only real highlight for Blomberg in Chicago as he appeared in only 61 games for the White Sox in 1978, batting .231 with five home runs and 22 RBIs. The team tried to send Blomberg to Triple-A following the 1979 spring training, but he refused the assignment and was released, ending his major-league playing career.

Blomberg ended his career with a .293 average, .832 OPS, and a 140 OPS+. His career splits tell the story of why he did not play more early in his career as he slashed .304/.367/.500 against righties but only .215/.306/.272 versus lefties. Another career ended too quickly by injuries, leaving one to wonder what if.

Following his playing days, Blomberg continued to love being a Yankee. He served as a regional scout for the team and still participates in events when the team asks, including many an Old-Timers’ Day. In 2004, Blomberg was inducted into the National Jewish Sports Hall of Fame.

Blomberg has written two books. The first, published in 2008, was his autobiography, Designated Hebrew. Then in 2021, Blomberg produced The Captain and Me: On and Off the Field with Thurman Munson. This book outlines why Munson should be in the Hall of Fame, showing that all these years later, Blomberg was still going to bat for his teammates.

Happy birthday, Ron!

See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

It might feel like we can’t have nice things as Cub fans after a game like this. I’m sure there will be dozens of storylines all across the internet about the Cubs and blown saves on a day like this. And I’m not blowing smoke at anyone. I’m not revisiting this after a Saturday night game. But, yeah, you’ll see the Cubs have 21 blown saves. Out of just 50 opportunities. No question, an atrocious number. Ironically, an exact matching image of the Mariners.

Blown saves happen and they don’t always mean what you think they do. When I deep dived the number a few months ago, it included a handful of games with either two blown saves in the same game or games the team won. When we think blown saves, we all think of games like this. Where the team was leading in the ninth and then lost. The most frustrating of blown saves. Where it literally feels like you snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Check this out. The Brewers have blown 18 saves. The Dodgers? 19. The Rays? 15. The Braves? 17. The Yankees? 23. The Phillies? 17. The Red Sox? 11. The Padres? With their vaunted bullpen and best closer on the planet? 15. The Diamondbacks? 15.

Yes the Cubs have blown a lot of saves. Yes, at times the Cub bullpen has been abysmal. I wouldn’t try to convince you otherwise. Blown saves are one of the stupidest statistics in baseball today and I defend most of the ones we have. How many of you are concerned about a blown save in the fifth inning? I’m positive the Cubs have one of those this year. Or a blown save in a game the team won? I think the Cubs have two or three of those this year. That stat should be discretionary. If the official scorer doesn’t believe the reliever is being brought in to close the game, it isn’t a blown save, it is a blown lead. That’s a different thing.

I believe as it stands right now, today, if the Cubs decided they were going to run a full bullpen day. Pete Crow-Armstrong leads off the first with a homer. Caleb Thielbar throws a perfect first inning, getting a pair of lefties out. Trent Thornton throws a perfect second inning before turning it over to Javier Assad for the third inning. Javy allows an unearned run in the third inning, then finishes the rest of the game. The Cubs go on to win 10-1. And Javy not only gets a win for his spectacular outing, but he gets a blown save. Because he entered a game with the lead. Thielbar didn’t throw enough innings to earn the win, but Thornton as a reliever absolutely can get a win. And Assad blew that.

Yeah, that totally belongs in the same category as Jacob Webb’s unfortunate Saturday night adventure. He wasn’t going to be perfect forever, but damn. What a way to lose it. Webb faced five batters and allowed three hits and three runs. Webb was last the Billy Goat on June 20. Between Billy Goats? 5-0 with 7 saves. 96 batters faced, 13 hits, 10 walks, 25 strikeouts and no runs. Earned or otherwise. Six perfect innings in there. Most of them in high leverage. A FIP of 2.27. We did have nice things. But it broke.

Bummer. This game sucks when it goes sideways. And this kind of loss is just about as bad as it gets.

Three Positives:

• Tyrone Taylor had a double, two walks, drove in a run and scored another. He stole a base. If you had Taylor as the best pickup for the Cubs at the deadline, you are probably the club house leader. I did tell you they’d benefit from a complementary player to Michael Conforto. One dangerous from each side of the plate. One with more power, one with more speed. He’s been a great addition so far.
• Alex Bregman had a solo homer in four plate appearances.
• So did Michael Busch. The Cubs had just seven hits, no one had two. They drew only three walks (and had a hit batter).

Game 130, August 22: Mariners 5, Cubs 4 (74-56)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Tyrone Taylor (.216). 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, RBI, R
• Hero: Michael Busch (.118). 1-4, HR, RBI, R
• Sidekick: Alex Bregman (.110). 1-4, HR, RBI, R

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Jacob Webb (-.916). 0.2 IP, 5 BF, 3 H, 3 R (L 6-3)
• Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.145). 1-4
• Kid: Miguel Amaya (-.110). 0-4, DP

NOTE: Preliminary indication is that this WPA game score for Webb is the worst for a Cub since September 23, 2017. Another dominant reliever in recent Cub history, Wade Davis was the victim. Wade entered the game in the ninth inning and allowed a solo homer to tie the game. He finished the inning. The Cubs scored a run against future Cub closer Jeremy Jeffress in the top of the 10th, only to have Travis Shaw walk off Davis with a two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th. Final WPA was -1.085. That was Davis’ first blown save as a Cub and it was essentially two blown saves in the same game.

WPA Play of the Game: Randy Arozarena’s two-run, walk-off homer. (.912)

Cubs Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s solo homer in the sixth that gave the Cubs the lead. (.196)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 129 Winner: It happens about once a year. Alex Bregman received 100 percent of the vote. Cade Horton was the last, last September 3. Just shy of one year since it happened.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +28
• Alex Bregman +25
• Shōta Imanaga +14
• Trent Thornton/Carson Kelly +13.5
• Seiya Suzuki -11
• Edward Cabrera -12.5
• Jameson Taillon -13
• Dansby Swanson -17
• Caleb Thielbar -18.5

Scoreboard Watching: Braves lose (one up on Cubs) to Brewers (up seven). Phillies win (down two). Dodgers win (up five). Diamondbacks lose (down six). Padres win (down four). Only one positive result in there. This has been a nightmarish two-day stretch. Nothing is over, but it is going to take a monumental finish for the Cubs to do any better than Wild Card 1.

Up Next: Afternoon baseball in Seattle. Shōta Imanaga (8-9, 3.77) for the Cubs. Imanaga is 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA over his last seven starts. The last two have been a little less good. But still, he’s one of the best Cub options. 28-year-old righty Bryce Miller (4-7, 3.71) pitches for the Mariners. He’s heading in the wrong direction (0-5, 6.57) over his last seven. He’s allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts. This is the guy you’re supposed to beat.

There is some level of trap to this game. Fangraphs shows this pitching matchup and the Cubs having 43.7% chance of winning (lower than either of the previous two games or the last one in the Sox series for that matter). Looking way ahead, Fangraphs gives the Cubs a higher chance of winning all four of the games against the Brewers later this month than this game. I’m betting against the trap. Cubs salvage one and head to Arizona where the matchups are a bit better.

Iowa Cubs 7, Toledo Mud Hens 3 (F/10) (box)

Toledo let a strong start from Dylan File slip away before things unraveled in the 10th inning. Iowa has won three straight after dropping the first two games of the series.

File’s only damage came in the top of the first. James Triantos hit a leadoff home run, and Ben Cowles followed with a double. File responded by retiring 18 of the next 22 batters he faced, working around a pair of doubles, a single and a walk. He struck out six through as many innings.

File’s stuff was solid for most of the night. He landed first-pitch strikes to 20 of 24 batters and induced 10 whiffs. The changeup was particularly effective, producing four whiffs on five swings. His four-seamer also induced four whiffs and four strikeouts while averaging 93 mph.

The Mud Hens’ offense was fairly quiet until the fifth, when it gave File a lead to work with. Trei Cruz and Chris Meyers opened the frame with back-to-back singles, and Andrew Navigato moved both of them up with a sacrifice bunt. Max Burt drove them in with a two-out single up the middle.

Nick Sandlin replaced File in the seventh and held the 2-1 lead through two dominant innings. Four of his six outs came on strikeouts, and nine of his 31 pitches drew a swing-and-miss. Sandlin’s splitter and slider both worked well, drawing five and three whiffs, respectively. The Cubs only put two balls in play against him and reached base once on a walk.

Ricky Vanasco was tasked with clsoing it out, but he couldn’t preserve the lead. A hit batter, wild pitch and single put the tying run on third, and Ethan Hearn knotted things up at two with a sharp liner up the middle. Vanasco’s woes didn’t stop there. Navigato mishandled a potential double-play ball, allowing the go-ahead run to score. The defense converted the next double-play opportunity, but the damage was already done.

Josue Briceño led off the bottom of the ninth with a walk, but it was Cruz who ended up scoring the tying run after a failed sac bunt. Meyers singled Cruz to third, and Cruz came home on a wild pitch. Meyers tried to score on the same play, but Iowa recovered and tagged him out at the plate, forcing extras.

The failed walk-off attempt meant Jack Little took over on the mound with an automatic runner on second in the 10th, and he was not prepared for the moment. After getting the leadoff man to ground out, Little walked the next three batters to give up the lead. Justin Dean cleared the bases with a double, and all of a sudden Toledo was staring at a four-run deficit.

The Hens went down 1-2-3 in the bottom half of the 10th to end an exciting game on a sour note.

Meyers: 2-4, R, K

Burt: 1-4, 2 RBI

Briceño: 1-3, 2B, BB, K

File: 6.0 IP, ER, 5 H, BB, 6 K, HR

Coming Up Next: The series concludes Sunday at 2:05 p.m. ET.

Erie SeaWolves 7, New Hampshire Fisher Cats 0 (box)

Erie was the only Tigers affiliate to win Saturday, and it did so emphatically. The SeaWolves launched four home runs while Kenny Serwa and the bullpen combined on a two-hit shutout.

Peyton Graham got Erie on the board early, homering to left-center field in the first. Luke Shliger hit the second solo shot of the game in the next inning. Shliger has shown some juice with two homers in six games since being called up to Double-A.

Serwa was solid through seven shutout frames, allowing just two hits and three walks while striking out six. That’s his second straight seven-inning start, and he generated 10 whiffs this time around.

The SeaWolves broke the game open in the fifth. Clayton Campbell notched his first Double-A hit, a single, to spark the one-out rally. Viandel Pena followed with another single, and Woody Hadeen drove both of them in with a triple off the wall in left.

Graham came up next and blasted his second home run of the night, a two-run shot and his ninth of the season.

Izaac Pacheco tacked on another run for good measure, hitting Erie’s fourth homer of the game in the sixth.

Yoniel Curet went 1-2-3 in the eighth, drawing three whiffs and two strikeouts on 11 pitches. Tanner Kohlhepp finished things off with a clean ninth.

Graham: 3-4, 2 HR (8, 9), 2 R, 3 RBI, CS

Hadeen: 1-4, 3B (1), R, 2 RBI, K

Shliger: 1-4, HR (2), R, RBI, K

Pacheco: 1-3, HR (16), R, RBI, BB, K

Serwa (W, 7-8): 7.0 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K

Coming Up Next: Joe Miller starts Sunday’s 1:35 p.m. ET finale against Nolan Perry. Erie leads the series 3-2.

South Bend Cubs 4, West Michigan Whitecaps 3 (box)

Bryce Rainer’s power surge continued Saturday, but West Michigan couldn’t make his three-run homer stand. South Bend scored four unanswered runs over the final three innings to take a 3-2 series lead.

The first five innings featured a pitching duel between Connor Fenlong and Pierce Coppola. Fenlong allowed the first two Cubs to reach base — a leadoff single and John Peck made an error at short — but he retired 16 batters in a row after that. Coppola was just as good, holding the Whitecaps hitless with seven strikeouts and two walks over five innings.

Cristian Santana broke up the no-hitter with a leadoff single in the sixth. Phew. Jackson Strong walked right after, and Bryce Rainer hit a three-run homer to put West Michigan ahead 3-0. Rainer just saw that franchise-record streak of five consecutive games with a home run come to an end on Friday, but he’s right back at it a day later. That’s six in seven games and 16 on the year for the former first-round pick.

Fenlong returned for the bottom of the sixth, looking for a quality start, but he was knocked out of the game with two outs after a pair of homers. Still, it was a very good outing for him, one that featured 15 whiffs. Juanmi Vasquez got the final out of the sixth and worked around a single in a scoreless seventh before turning it over to Ryan Harvey.

South Bend saw Harvey well and lit him up for four hits in the first five plate appearances against him. A leadoff double and trio of singles were enough to put the Cubs in front going into the final frame.

Stephen Hrustich reached on a throwing error in the ninth, but he never made it into scoring position.

Rainer: 1-4, HR (16), R, 3 RBI, 3 K

Santana: 1-1, R, 2 BB

Fenlong: 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 7 K, 2 HR

Harvey (L, 4-5): 1.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, K

Coming Up Next: The series concludes Sunday at 2:05 p.m. ET.

St. Lucie Mets 6, Lakeland Flying Tigers 2 (F/10) (box)

Lakeland’s five-game winning streak ended in dramatic fashion Saturday. The Flying Tigers took a one-run lead in the top of the 10th, but St. Lucie answered with five runs and a walk-off grand slam in the bottom half.

Kelvis Salcedo continued the organizational trend of good starts with 4 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just one hit while striking out six. His stuff was solid, with the cutter and splitter doing most of the work. Both pitches had a 41% called-strike-plus-whiff rate and led to a combined eight of his nine total whiffs. He topped out at 96.8 mph with both the sinker and the four-seamer averaging 95 mph or better.

Zach MacDonald gave the Flying Tigers a 1-0 lead in the fourth. Michael Oliveto walked, Jesus Pinto singled to put men on the corners and MacDonald got the RBI base knock to left. Lakeland had a chance for more runs with the bases loaded, but Jude Warwick flied out to end the inning.

Pedro Garcia cleaned up the final out of the fifth for Lakeland, and Owen Hall took over for another long-relief appearance in the sixth. Hall struck out three of the first five batters he faced, but his command started to slip in the seventh. He hit a batter and walked another but got out of the inning without giving up the lead.

A leadoff single and a pair of walks loaded the bases in the eighth for St. Lucie. The Flying Tigers turned to Leonardo Rossell to get out of the jam with two outs, but he threw a wild pitch before reloading the bases with a walk. Fortunately, a flyout ended the inning, but Hall gets the earned run on his record.

Neither team scored in the ninth, sending things into extras. Michael Oliveto drove in the automatic runner on second with a one-out double, restoring the one-run lead.

Bryce Alewine came in to get the save, and it all went bad. A sac bunt and sac fly tied the game. Then, Alewine loaded the bases with a walk, a single and a hit batter. Jack Toomey took a first-pitch sinker and launched it over the fence in left-center for a walk-off grand slam. Sigh.

Oliveto: 1-4, 2B (5), R, RBI, BB, K

MacDonald: 1-4, RBI, BB, K

Salcedo: 4.2 IP, 0 R, H, 0 BB, 6 K

Alewine (L, 0-1): 0.2 IP, 5 R, 4 ER, 2 H, BB, HR

Coming Up Next: The series concludes Sunday at 12:10 p.m. ET. Lakeland leads 4-1.

Jonah Tong appears to be finding his groove with Triple-A Syracuse. 

It’s been a bit of a rocky season for the Mets’ young top pitching prospect, but he’s been throwing the ball much better over his past few outings.

Tong finished just one out shy of recording a quality start on Saturday night, delivering 5.2 shutout innings in a 3-0 win over a veteran-filled Worcester lineup. 

He walked the very first batter he faced on just four pitches, then immediately pushed him into scoring position with a throwing error on a pickoff attempt, but did well to strand him there. 

The right-hander then worked around a two-single and another throwing error of his own to leave a man in scoring position with a strikeout via a fastball on the corner. 

He worked around a one-out single in the third, a leadoff walk in the fourth, and a leadoff double in the fifth. 

Tong came back out for the sixth but was pulled after retiring the first two batters he faced, ending his day with just three hits and a pair of walks allowed while striking out three. 

He has now allowed one run or fewer in five of his last six starts, and two runs or fewer in six of his last seven. 

Though his overall numbers still aren’t where they need to be, it’s encouraging to see the 23-year-old finding his footing down the stretch in the regular season. 

If he can keep this up, perhaps he’ll be called upon to receive another opportunity to settle in with the big-league club before the year comes to a close. 

Tong pitched to a 3.60 ERA over three MLB appearances earlier this season. 

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A day after Dylan Cease took a no-hitter into the seventh inning, Jose Soriano gets the start for Toronto, and we're going for another plus-money play at BET99 as part of my Blue Jays vs. Yankees predictions.

Let’s dive into my MLB picks for Sunday, Aug. 23, and end the week with some extra cash in our pocket.

Blue Jays vs Yankees predictions

Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet: Blue Jays moneyline (+120)

The Toronto Blue Jays have seen Carlos Rodon a ton throughout his career: this lineup has 126 plate appearances under its belt and owns a .271 average alongside a .417 xSLG. That'll play for us today as the Jays go for their eighth straight series win.

Jose Soriano is his counterpart this afternoon, and he's been on an absolute tear, allowing just three earned runs or fewer across his last eight starts.

It helps that he's striking out this Yankees lineup at a 33% clip, which includes a nasty 37% whiff rate. He should have no problem limiting the bats of New York.

COVERS INTEL: The King of New York? If the Blue Jays are scoring today, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be at center stage. He's 12-for-19 with three doubles and two homers against Rodon in his career alongside an astronomical .797 xSLG.

Blue Jays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)

The Blue Jays are on an incredible run and are closing in on their eighth straight series win. With a pitching matchup that leans in their favor, look for them to get the job done on the back of a big game from Vladdy, who recorded two hits in his return to the lineup yesterday.

Blue Jays vs Yankees SGP

• Blue Jays moneyline
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
• Jose Soriano Under 2.5 earned runs

Blue Jays vs Yankees home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+510)

We're double-dipping, but Vladdy's numbers in this specific matchup are impossible to ignore. At one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the Big Leagues, and with Vladdy's 1.105 SLG against Rodon, expect him to break out of his power drought today.

Blue Jays vs Yankees odds

• Moneyline: Toronto (+120) | New York (-140)
• Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-175) | New York -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under: Over 8 (+100) | Under 8 (-120)

Blue Jays vs Yankees trend

The Under is 7-1 in the Yankees' last eight games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Yankees.

How to watch Blue Jays vs Yankees and game info

Blue Jays vs Yankees latest injuries

Blue Jays vs Yankees weather

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Another day of minor league baseball is in the books. See the results below. Check out the previous day’s recap here.

AAA: Sugar Land Space Cowboys (66-58) lost 5-1 (BOX SCORE)

Sugar Land got on the board in the first inning on a Biggio RBI single. Nezuh started for Sugar Land and allowed 3 runs over 4.2 innings of work. The bullpen allowed 2 unearned runs and the offense was unable to get anything else going as Sugar Land fell 5-1.

Note: Biggio has a .815 OPS in Triple-A.

• Jake Meyers, CF: 2-for-4, R, 3B
• Joey Loperfido, RF: 1-for-2, BB
• Cavan Biggio, 2B: 1-for-3, RBI, BB
• Collin Price, DH: 2-for-4, 2B

• Jackson Nezuh, RHP: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
• Trey McLoughlin, RHP: 2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
• Alimber Santa, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Ryan Weiss, RHP: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K

AA: Corpus Christi Hooks (56-63) won 7-5 (BOX SCORE)

Taylor started for the Hooks and went 5 innings allowing 3 runs. The offense got on the board in the first inning on a Thomas solo home run. They picked up another run in the third on a Janek RBI single and one in the 4th inning on a Brown RBI double. In the 5th, the offense took the lead scoring 4 runs on a Brown hit by pitch, Holy 2 run single and a run on a groundout. The pen allowed a couple of runs but was able to hold on for the 7-5 win.

Note: Janek has 25 stolen bases in 57 games this season.

• Justin Thomas, CF: 1-for-4, R, HR, RBI
• Walker Janek, C: 1-for-4, R, RBI, 2 SB
• Jason Schiavone, 1B: 1-for-3, R, 2B, BB
• Tyler Whitaker, DH: 1-for-3, 2 R
• Marcus Brown, SS: 1-for-3, R, 2B, 2 RBI
• Max Holy, SS: 3-for-4, 2B, RBI

• Andrew Taylor, RHP: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K (WIN)
• Alejandro Torres, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
• Railin Perez, RHP: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K (SAVE)

A+: Asheville Tourists (41-76) lost 15-3 (BOX SCORE)

Smith started for Asheville but struggled allowing 6 runs without retiring a batter. He was relieved by Baez who allowed 4 runs over 3 innings, and then Ogando allowed another 3 runs.m The offense got on the board in the 2nd inning on a Garcia RBI single. In the 5th, Powell connected on a solo home run. Newman added a solo home run in the 9th but that was it as Asheville fell 15-3.

Note: Newman is hitting .476 in High-A.

• Caden Powell, LF: 1-for-5, R, HR, RBI
• Anthony Huezo, CF: 1-for-3, 2B, BB
• Zach Daudet, SS: 1-for-2, R, 2 BB
• John Garcia, C: 1-for-4, RBI
• Brandon Nigh, DH: 2-for-4
• DJ Newman, RF: 1-for-3, R, HR, RBI, BB

• Parker Smith, RHP: 0.0 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
• Jhoster Baez, RHP: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 4 K
• Joan Ogando, RHP: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
• Max Martin, RHP: 2.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
• Yosweld Vasquez, RHP: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K

A: Fayetteville Woodpeckers (62-53) POSTPONED

Today’s minor league starters:

SL: Bryce Mayer – 2:05 CT

CC: James Hicks – 5:05 CT

AV: TBD – 12:05 CT

FV: TBD – 4:05 CT

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Baseball all day long! We have a full slate ahead, with plenty of value in the MLB player props market.

Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picksfor Sunday, Aug. 22, including why I expect a lot from White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Tomoyuki Sugano	Over 3.5 Earned Runs	-120
Kyle Leahy	Under 3.5 Strikeouts	-111
Munetaka Murakami	Over 0.5 hits	-150

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 earned runs (-120)

It's hard to overlook the advanced metrics pointing toward Colorado Rockies seasoned sophomore right-hander allowing Over 3.5 earned runs this afternoon. Most importantly, Tomoyuki Sugano draws the highest-rated lineup in baseball today. The Cleveland Guardians feature six elite-rated bats, with two more carrying strong ratings, according to Batters-Box.

So far at home this season, the second-year starter owns a 6.00 xERA while allowing a 13.37% barrel rate and 45% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters. With the Guardians only having one true right-handed hitter in their lineup, they should expose Sugano's biggest weakness, left-handed hitters, who have tormented him all season long.

The Rockies starter owns a 6.76 xERA against lefties, while opposing hitters have a .411 xwOBA. If 3.5 feels like too much of an ask, take the Guardians' first-five team total Over 2.5 at around -150. 

• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: COLR, CLEG

Kyle Leahy Under 3.5 strikeouts (-111)

St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy enters Sunday allowing the most hard contact among today’s starters, per Batters-Box, giving up over 45.5% hard contact this season.

He also enters with poorly rated matchup wOBA, ISO, and strikeout rate metrics. He’ll draw a Philadelphia Phillies team featuring three elite-rated hitters, along with one strongly rated bat. They also have just four hitters striking out above the league average.

Despite Leahy’s sudden strikeout surge, which has pushed his strikeout rate over 33% across his last three starts, the Phillies have shockingly dropped theirs to 12.2% over their last six games and below 16% over their last 12. This lineup has done a tremendous job maintaining a contact rate above 81% over the last two weeks. On top of that, against the last 30 right-handed pitchers they’ve faced, the Phillies have six bats with strikeout rates below 17% during that stretch.

With how much hard contact Leahy has allowed this season and how much the Phillies generate, the Under on his strikeouts feels promising. Take this down to -115.

• Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBCS-Philadelphia, CARD

Munetaka Murakami Over 0.5 hits (-150)

It's still very perplexing why the books price Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami's hit prop so low on an everyday basis. Sure, he does strike out at a high rate, but he's one of the most lethal bats in baseball this season.

Either way, he's a go this afternoon against New York Mets right-hander Nolan McLean. Today marks Murakami's 28th elite rating at home this season. In the 27 prior, he has recorded a hit 70.37% of the time. Overall, in 55 elite ratings this season, he has recorded a hit nearly 71% of the time. Not to mention, he's hit a home run at a near 35% clip.

Over his last 10 games, he sports a .278 ISO while making a boatload of hard contact, generating a 52.4% hard-hit rate and nearly 20% barrel rate during that span.

McLean, against his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, has struggled. He owns a 5.68 ERA and 5.68 FIP, while allowing 2.13 HR/9 and a 47.6% hard-hit rate. Those lefties own a .366 xBA, .597 xSLG, and .364 xwOBA during that stretch.

Murakami also covers almost 87% of McLean's arsenal, crushing his main four pitches. At -150, it is worth paying the juice on a guy to do the bare minimum. If you want to chase value, his double is hovering around +750 and his home run around +400. Sprinkle on both.

• Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, SNY

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