CLEVELAND, OHIO - MARCH 25: Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Cleveland Cavaliers helps up James Harden #1 during the first half against the Miami Heat at Rocket Arena on March 25, 2026 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images) | Getty Images
CLEVELAND — The Cleveland Cavaliers played an uninspired first 43 minutes against a tanking Indiana Pacers team that only had nine available players in early April. The final five minutes were different.
Cleveland was up four with five minutes to play before hitting the accelerator. They scored 11 points over the next three minutes to push their lead to 13 as they cruised to what became a stress-free victory.
Controlling the last few minutes has been a trend over the back half of the season. Since the beginning of February, the Cavs have registered the third-best offensive rating (131) and best net rating (+34.6) in clutch situations (when the game is within five points in the final five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime). Before February, Cleveland ranked 23rd in offensive rating and 13th in net rating in that setting.
According to their head coach, there’s one reason for their success: James Harden.
“Give him the ball and get out of the way,” Kenny Atkinson said.
That simple plan has worked. The Cavs had an outrageous 143 offensive rating and a +57.9 net rating in just over 40 clutch minutes Harden has played since the trade. That has resulted in a 13-2 record in clutch-time games during that stretch.
The Cavs have done a good job of incorporating some of Atkinson’s motion-based offense with the traditional, isolation sets that Harden is used to working with. However, at the end of games, they’ve opted to slow the game down and space the floor.
“We do some stuff and some sets, and it’s more him getting the right matchup,” Atkinson said. “We have really worked on our spacing in his iso situations or pick and roll, we have worked on that. But 99% of it is James Harden making the right play.”
The simple and effective plan has worked for the Cavs, but only because the team’s franchise player has been willing to cede control of the offense late.
“A lot of the times I feel like if you want to deny me the ball, go ahead,” Donovan Mitchell said. “This man’s done it for 17 years at the highest level, you know what I mean? And vice versa.”
The two have had conversations about how to best work in the postseason, which shows through in the results. Mitchell pointed to multiple clutch-time plays from earlier this year to prove how those discussions have paid off. The first was from their win over the Golden State Warriors on April 2.
The Warriors were denying Mitchell on the wing, so he allowed Harden to dictate that possession. “James gets to his stuff, hits Evan, Evan hits Max, I cut. That’s one.”
And lastly, Mitchell highlighted the following possession. The defense didn’t blitz Harden, allowing him to take the off-the-dribble three. Sequences like this are possible when you have two elite playmakers. The defense can really only try to take away one.
“Sometimes our best offense is letting him operate and being able to find a way to manipulate the game and trust him that it’s going to be the right play,” Mitchell said.
The spacing is the key to making these three plays work. Harden’s game is built on creating mismatches. Having everyone properly spaced forces the defense to commit to a double or leave individual players on an island. No matter which the defenses chooses the Cavs are betting their talent can win out in the end.
“The spacing is the most important thing,” Harden said, “and once we got the spacing, then everything else should take care of itself, which is very, very key going into the postseason because you’re in late-game situations; you’ve got to make sure you execute.”
“They know he’s got to have the ball,” Atkinson said. “They know where to space. Communicating with them all the time. He’s always communicating with our screeners on what to do. So he’s coaching it too. It’s not just making the plays. He coaches it with the guys out there, which is what the great quarterbacks do.”
Quarterback play often decides tight playoff games in the NFL. While it isn’t a one-to-one comparison here, it’s fair to say that the Cavs didn’t have great quarterback play last postseason. They dropped all three games in the second round against the Pacers that entered a clutch situation. When games got close, the Cavs weren’t able to generate efficient offense. That cost them, especially in Game 2 when they blew a seven-point lead in the final minute and were outscored 36-21 in the fourth quarter.
Harden should help in this equation. Despite his previous playoff shortcomings, he’s at the very least shown he can solve what was previously an issue for the Cavs in the regular season by consistently generating quality looks late in games. That will need to translate over to the playoffs if the Cavs want to reach their goals.
“We’re not going to have our best games [all the time], it’s just natural,” Mitchell said. “No one’s had a perfect playoff run. So when the going gets tough, when you have a guy like him alongside you, you’re very calm. We’re very calm as a group and understand that, hey, we’re going to get the best shot somehow, some way.”
On Thursday, former New York Islanders forward Brock Nelson was honored for skating in his 1,000th NHL game when the Colorado Avalanche hosted the Seattle Kraken for their regular-season finale.
He reached the milestone back on Monday against the Edmonton Oilers, in Edmonton.
Former Islanders teammates Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck, and Josh Bailey, along with their wives, were in attendance for the celebration.
During his 1,000-game tribute video, his longtime Islanders' teammates Anders Lee and Ryan Pulock, along with Bo Horvat, had some words for their former No. 29:
bo horvat, ryan pulock, and anders lee congratulating brock nelson on his 1000th game 🥹 pic.twitter.com/WMo4Z8GFxK
Drafted 30th overall at the 2010 NHL Draft, Nelson played 901 regular-season games for the Islanders, recording 574 points (295 goals, 279 assists) over the span of 12 seasons.
Dealt to the Avalanche ahead of the 2025 NHL Trade Deadline, Nelson has played 99 games for his new team, recording 78 points (27 goals, 26 assists), scoring 30 goals this season with 32 assists for 65 points.
Nelson and the Avalanche host the Los Angeles Kings, with Game 1 on Sunday, April 19 at 1 PM ET.
Good news: Red Sox fans get to watch the two best starting pitchers in the American League this weekend when the Detroit Tigers come to town.
Bad news: The pitchers miss each other by one game and Boston must find a way to beat the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner.
Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal will each take the mound. Last season, they represented the class of left-handed pitching in the sport. They each set the tone of excellence for their respective rotations.
There’s only one problem: We really have to miss this matchup?
Here are four thoughts on the excellent southpaws before the Tigers and Red Sox begin a four-game set on Marathon weekend.
So Close
Skubal will likely pitch Saturday’s contest against Brayan Bello while Crochet will take the ball for the Red Sox in the Sunday matinee.
Despite spending multiple years in the same division when Crochet pitched for the Chicago White Sox, the stars have only faced off against each other once.
Flashback to Opening Day 2024 and it was the pitchers’ duel baseball deserved. Crochet and Skubal each tossed six strong innings with just eight combined hits allowed and 14 total strikeouts.
The lone run against Crochet came when Andy Ibanez plated Javy Baez on a third-inning sacrifice fly.
Baseball deserves to see this matchup once again, especially as the reigning top-two finishers in last year’s American League Cy Young Award race.
ERA Crusher?
When it’s all said and done, there may be no greater winner from Crochet’s disastrous start against the Minnesota Twins.
The Red Sox starter imploded in the second inning Monday and exited after allowing 10 earned runs to the best team in the American League (so far). That performance ballooned Crochet’s ERA to 7.58 (!!!).
That could take him months to bring that number back down to Earth and legitimately return him to award conversations. Skubal is at 2.22 through his first four starts and could now very easily walk the red carpet to his third consecutive Cy Young win, though other AL contestants will surely arise.
All that in a contract year to boot (more on that later).
Revisiting 2025
Skubal won the Cy Young Award last season with the ERA title (2.22 ERA) and the league-leading WAR (6.5). He won 13 games to Crochet’s 18 (we don’t need to insert the lecture on the declining value of pitcher wins) while the Red Sox ace led the sport with 255 strikeouts and 205.1 innings pitched.
Red Sox Discount?
Boston wasted no time locking in Crochet for the future after acquiring him in a December 2024 trade with the White Sox. In the first week of the 2025 regular season, Crochet signed a six-year, $170 million extension through 2031 with an opt-out after 2030.
Getting the second best starting pitcher in the American League at $28 million per year already feels like a win for the Red Sox. That should resonate even more when Skubal likely breaks the bank in free agency next winter. Extension talks with Detroit seem to be over and Skubal will walk at the perfect time, especially after a potential three-peat Cy Young performance we alluded to early. If he exceeds $40 million per year, the Red Sox can have a rare reason nowadays to pat themselves on the back.
If you are a regular reader of this segment, you have seen this before. The best stats are the stats that can be used for hitting and pitching. Offensive and defensive efficiency is one of those. Today, we are focused on the worst pitching staff in baseball. At least, that is where the Astros ranked coming into Wednesday night’s game. They were last in hits allowed, walks allowed, and home runs allowed. In fact, if we throw in Wednesday night’s game they even led the league in hit by pitches.
I stepped out of the lab on Wednesday to question whether Joe Espada or Dana Brown were on the hot seat. Of course, they have no contract for 2027, so they started the season on the hot seat. I would never fire a manager or executive in April. It was more of a question of what would happen if these trends continue. The general law of statistics is that everything will regress to the mean. Today, I present the big table of how each major league team is doing in defensive efficiency.
In the case of pitching, the lower the number the better. It is a simple accounting of what percentage of base runners score. It is not a perfect accounting. We do not include players that reach on errors, but in this case we are short-circuiting the table to include the total number of runs, total number of base runners, and the defensive efficiency rating for each team. We will go last to first this time around.
Runs
Base Runners
Efficiency
Rays
85
178
.478
Blue Jays
89
204
.436
Nationals
108
249
.434
Astros
113
275
.411
Phillies
86
210
.410
Dbacks
82
202
.406
Cardinals
94
238
.395
Marlins
80
203
.394
Cubs
73
187
.390
White Sox
87
223
.390
Red Sox
81
210
.386
Angels
89
235
.379
Rockies
78
213
.366
Guardians
76
209
.364
Giants
74
206
.359
Brewers
73
204
.358
Mariners
62
179
.346
Mets
71
206
.345
Royals
67
197
.340
Orioles
70
210
.333
Athletics
74
223
.332
Dodgers
57
172
.331
Twins
77
233
.330
Yankees
61
186
.328
Reds
71
218
.326
Braves
59
181
.326
Tigers
61
190
.321
Padres
61
190
.321
Pirates
68
215
.316
Rangers
58
187
.310
Median
73
206
.359
I should go over some basic math before we dive into what it means. Each category stands on its own. So, if you were to take the median for each category and actually do the math, the median would be .354. Some of you are glazing over as you read this, but I know I have some intrepid readers out there that will notice these little things. Kudos to you for noticing.
Let’s start with the good news. The Astros are due for some positive regression on all counts. This team will not be the worst pitching staff in baseball for the whole season. They will surrender fewer hits and they will definitely get their walks down to a more reasonable level. However, the biggest thing is that their defensive efficiency will also approach the league median as well. This is because the entire league will approach the median eventually.
What exactly does this mean? If the Astros had league median efficiency they would have surrendered 99 runs instead of 113. In the early going, this would probably be equivalent to three wins. Suddenly, a 11-9 team would look a lot better than an 8-12 team. Of course, the hitting efficiency would also be closer to the median. So, maybe you would be looking at a .500 team.
The bad news is that getting to the median in hits allowed and walks allowed is not necessarily in the cards. The Astros will get closer to the median, but this might be a below average pitching staff with all of the injuries. This is mainly about efficiency. You will notice the numbers are over the board in terms of runs scored and base runners. The Rays are one of the better pitching staffs in terms of base runners. They are off the charts in a negative way.
So, in the end, the Astros have been bad, but they have also been unlucky. So, even if they continue to be bad, they will still improve overall due to a regression to the mean. They will eventually get there when health stabilizes and when they move to a more conventional rotation with AAAA type of starters to replace the injured ones.
We will revisit these numbers later in the year, so we should keep these in the back of our mind. You will see the numbers tightening and the Astros improve overall as the season goes along. The other good news is that teams like the Rangers will get worse. On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Do you agree?
PORT ST. LUCIE, FLORIDA - MARCH 19, 2026: Jacob Melton #29 of the Tampa Bay Rays bats during the first inning of a spring training Spring Breakout game against the New York Mets at Clover Park on March 19, 2026 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Jacob Melton was acquired by the Rays as the centerpiece in the Brandon Lowe trade. He brings a high-impact toolset: fringe 70 power, plus defense across all three outfield spots (including center field), and above-average speed.
Through his first 15 games with Triple-A Durham, that hasn’t translated to production. Melton is currently running a 74 wRC+. Why would someone with a strong track record of upper-minors performance be struggling in AAA?
There are a few reasons for this. First, it’s likely just random variance in a small sample. It’s not even May yet, there’s no need to be concerned. Another reason is that Melton is currently undergoing an adjustment to his approach, so his early struggles may be less about regression and more about recalibration.
Damage on contact
In order to get the most out of his profile as a power hitter, Melton needs to ensure he’s consistently hitting the ball at optimal angles. He has seen year-over-year improvement in his SLG on contact (SLGcon), measured per “BBE” (Batted Ball Event, e.g. anytime a bat makes contact with the ball).
2024: .560 (127 BBE)
2025: .729 (97 BBE)
2026: .750 (22 BBE)
League average SLGcon in AAA typically sits in the mid to upper 500s each season, so we can see that he has gone from accessing his power from an average rate to a well above average rate so far this season. His launch angle (LA) distribution helps explain why.
Analyzing LAs in buckets adds an important layer than is often overlooked when one exclusively considers average LA. Categorizing LAs in groups paints a more detailed picture of a player’s batted ball distribution – something we can see with Melton’s LA buckets below:
It’s too small of a sample so far in 2026 to say that the data will be the same for the rest of the season, but the trends are more important than the exact numbers. Melton is getting into line drive and fly ball angles more consistently, and his hardest contact is coming at optimal angles for damage too. His average hardhit LA has climbed from just 9 degrees in 2024 to 19 degrees so far in 2026. I’d expect those improved angles to translate to more in-game production over a larger sample, but that production comes with a trade-off.
Next steps
Melton is whiffing significantly more this season as a result of his shift in approach. In many ways, this looks like a deliberate trade-off: sacrificing contact to unlock more impactful contact. After maintaining a solid 23.4 whiff% across 2024 and 2025 in AAA, it has significantly increased to 41.4% this season. That level of swing-and-miss would be difficult to sustain at the major league level.
Melton can hedge against this by improving his swing decisions and figuring out a two-strike approach. The two data points I’ll be following are his zone-minus-out-of-zone (Z-O) swing% with less than two strikes and his whiff% with two strikes.
He’ll need to be selective and disciplined to maintain his plus damage on contact. His Z-O swing% so far this year is a 38.9%. This number is currently better than average but getting it closer to 40% and higher would be ideal for Melton’s profile. It appears that he’s doing well in this area so far.
His two-strike approach is less polished as Melton is currently whiffing on 53.7% of pitches with two strikes. One possible adjustment is incorporating more opposite-field intent in two-strike counts. That would allow him to see the ball deeper and naturally shorten his swing, which could help reduce swing-and-miss. Importantly, this kind of situational adjustment wouldn’t necessarily come at the expense of his improved damage on contact.
Those two markers – early-count swing decisions and two-strike whiff rate – will be key to monitor as he works toward impacting the major league roster later this season and pushing for a role in 2027.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - APRIL 14: Kyle Tucker #23 of the Los Angeles Dodgers hits a RBI single against the New York Mets in the eighth inning at Dodger Stadium on April 14, 2026 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Last season, a corner outfielder wearing the jersey no. 23 got off to a rough start in his first year as a Dodgers. This season, a shiny new corner outfielder wearing no. 23 has gotten off to an equally frustrating start.
Kyle Tucker was signed to be that impact corner outfielder at the top of the Dodgers lineup, and he is still an upgrade over the maligned Michael Conforto, who now finds himself struggling in Tucker’s old stomping grounds from the year prior. Tucker has demonstrated a remarkable eye at the plate, as reflected in a 15 percent walk rate that ranks 33rd out of 189 qualified hitters, but he has just three extra-base hits on the season with a slugging percentage at .343. His strikeout rate and chase rate are both uncharacteristically high to begin the season as well.
Tucker attributed his recent poor performances with being a bit too selective on his swing, notes Sonja Chen of MLB.com, as he has struggled with adjusting his approach in unfavorable counts.
“Sometimes you just find yourself chasing more, you just have to try and just narrow your zone a little bit and look in certain parts in the zone, rather than just like swinging at whatever’s thrown,” Tucker said. “So I just try to do my best with that and just try to hone on that, and kind of pick my spots on locations where I want and just try to be early with it and try to do a little better job of that.”
Tucker did end the recent homestand on a positive note, delivering the go-ahead hit on Tuesday and drilling a home run in his final at-bat on Wednesday after lining a ball 107 miles per hour off the bat in his previous appearance. As the Dodgers prepare to open a four-game series with the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, a stadium that ranks first in park factor this year, the four-time All-Star is starting to find his footing at the right time.
Links
Wednesday was an atypical night for Shohei Ohtani, as it marked the first time that he only took the mound instead of both pitching and hitting in a Dodgers uniform. Fans were still treated to a spectacle from the reigning two-time NL MVP, as he delivered six full innings on one-run ball while striking out a season-high 10 Mets hitters.
The decision to have Ohtani strictly pitch on Wednesday was a precautionary move by Dave Roberts, as Ohtani had been plunked on the shoulder by David Peterson on Monday and is hitless since. Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes that this will not become a recurring theme on Ohtani’s start days.
‘“If he wouldn’t have gotten hit, he would’ve DH’d today,” he said. “So I just think in this one game, it just makes more sense to give him the best chance to kind of manage the shoulder and the back.
“I think that it’s something I’m going to keep an eye on if it makes sense but not just kind of do it proactively. … It’s got to make sense to not have your best hitter not in the lineup.”
Dylan Hernández of the California Post writes about Edwin Díaz’s knee issues that kept him out for the majority of the homestand. As noted earlier this week, Díaz’s availability for Wednesday’s game was dependent on how his pregame bullpen session fared. He was warming up in the bullpen during the eighth inning on Wednesday, and he would’ve entered the ninth inning for a chance to face his former team had Dalton Rushing not put the score out of reach.
BOSTON - APRIL 26: Miroslav Satan #81 of the Boston Bruins celebrates his game winning goal in the third period against the Buffalo Sabres in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals during the 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at TD Garden on April 26, 2010 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Bruins defeated the Sabres 4-3 to win the series. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images) | Getty Images
After the regular season officially concluded late on Thursday night, the NHL finally released the full schedule for the first round series between YOUR Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres.
Bruins vs. Sabres schedule
As you know, the Sabres are the higher seed and will have home-ice advantage in the first round. Games 1, 2, 5, and 7 will be in Buffalo, with games 3, 4, and 6 at TD Garden.
Game 1: Sunday, April 19, 7:30 PM
Game 2: Tuesday, April 21, 7:30 PM
Game 3: Thursday, April 23, 7 PM
Game 4: Sunday, April 26, 2 PM
Game 5: Tuesday, April 28, TBD
Game 6: Friday, May 1, TBD
Game 7: Sunday, May 3, TBD
Bruins vs. Sabres TV channels
While the NHL website doesn’t specify this, a release from the Bruins confirms that all first round games will be broadcast on NESN locally.
This is in keeping with the usual tradition/contractual obligations, where teams’ regular season broadcasters get the first round before everything moves to national channels in the second round.
As you can see below, these games will still be broadcast on the national channels as well, but should be available on good ol’ NESN in the New England area.
Game 1: NESN, ESPN, SN360, TVAS
Game 2: NESN, ESPN, SN360, TVAS
Game 3: NESN, TNT, TruTV, HBO Max, SN360, TVAS
Game 4: NESN, TNT, TruTV, HBO Max, SN360, TVAS
Game 5: NESN, TBD
Game 6: NESN, TBD
Game 7: NESN, TBD
Bruins vs. Sabres radio broadcast schedule
Per the B’s, Games 1 through 4 are confirmed to be broadcast on 98.5 The Sports Hub, with “TBD” after that.
Normally, the games being on 98.5 would be, to use an appropriate metaphor, a lay-up.
However, Celtics games are also broadcast on 98.5 The Sports Hub, and their first round playoff series against the Philadelphia 76ers will conflict with the Bruins-Sabres series on:
Tuesday, April 21
Sunday, April 26
Tuesday, April 28
(Both teams have games on Sunday, April 19, as well, but the Celtics game is at 1 PM.)
As things look at the moment, it will be the Celtics who get bumped to 105.7 FM, with the B’s remaining on 98.5.
I know the formatting for this post is a little annoying, but…SEO, Apple News, etc. You get the idea.
Overall, this is a pretty standard schedule for the B’s, though the series does have two built-in back-to-back days off, which can help both teams during a rough-and-tumble playoff series.
A Sunday afternoon home playoff game at TD Garden should be a pretty fun atmosphere.
I’d imagine the Bruins-Sabres series should be near the top of the league leaderboard when it comes to eyeballs watching on TV in the United States, maybe only rivaled by the Flyers-Penguins series.
The Bruins always draw well on TV, and Buffalo is a leading “playoffs-on-TV” market even when the Sabres aren’t involved, so you can imagine how much the interest will spike with them back in the mix.
NHL playoff bracket challenge
Loyal SCOC reader tupty set up a Bracket Challenge over on the NHL website. For those unfamiliar, it’s basically like a March Madness bracket, where you pick your teams, series scores, etc.
The New York Knicks can take solace that Trae Young is nowhere to be found in their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks, and thus, Knicks fans don't have a chance to spit on him because he was torching their team.
Young is in a Washington Wizards uniform after a January trade, but when he was in Atlanta five years ago, he single-handedly led the Hawks to a five-game drubbing of the Knicks, leading to more postseason dread for New York.
Nothing has changed in the big picture for the Knicks, who are seeking their first Finals appearance since 1999, and welcome the visiting Hawks to kick off the best-of-seven series.
Here is a breakdown of the Knicks-Hawks series:
How the Knicks can advance
Of course, Jalen Brunson wasn't on the Knicks roster in 2021 and joined the team the next offseason after leaving the Dallas Mavericks and signing a four-year, $104 million free-agent contract.
The Knicks' playoff fortunes begin and end with Brunson, the reigning Clutch Player of the Year, so it is imperative that he gets going early and also gets his teammates involved. That means Karl Anthony Towns needs to be aggressive on both ends of the floor, and in his two games this season against the Hawks, he averaged 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds. But the bench is the X-factor for New York, which ranked third in offensive efficiency and fifth in 3-point percentage, and can generally go nine or 10 deep during the postseason, which might give them an advantage the longer the series goes on.
New York, winners of 53 games, played at a faster pace and hoisted more 3-pointers this season than under predecessor Tom Thibodeau. But one disadvantage is that, looking ahead to Boston, a healthy Jayson Tatum could be staring them right in the face in the second round.
How the Hawks can advance
Atlanta has played outstanding basketball over the last two months, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them advance out of this round.
Their defense must be elite, and the Hawks have a top-10 defense, just like the Knicks, who are more than capable of turning stingy defense into instant offense. Job number one for Atlanta is to stop Brunson on the offensive end and make him a liability on defense, using their guards' height advantage. They must also win the rebounding battle and pound the ball inside, as New York's lack of rim presence, especially shot blocking, can be used to their advantage.
Jalen Johnson has turned into a star, averaging 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game, and teaming with Nickeil Alexander-Walker, a nearly 21-point-per-game scorer, the Knicks will have their hands full against one of the best distributing teams in the league. The addition of Jonathan Kuminga should help, especially when Atlanta struggles in the half-court. But the Hawks must run the Knicks out of the gym to have a chance, but they might not have the offensive firepower to stay in the series.
Prediction: Knicks in five
Knicks vs hawks Series schedule: TV, stream information
Game 1: Atlanta at New York, Saturday, April 18, 6 p.m., Prime Video
Game 2: Atlanta at New York, Monday, April 20, 8 p.m., NBC, Peacock
Game 3: New York at Atlanta, Thursday, April 23, 7 p.m., Prime Video
Game 4: New York at Atlanta, Saturday, April 25, 6 p.m., NBC
Game 5: Atlanta at New York, Tuesday, April 28, TBD, (if necessary)
Game 6: New York at Atlanta, Thursday, April 30, TBD (if necessary)
Game 7: Atlanta at New York, Saturday, May 2, TBD (if necessary)
ASSEN, NETHERLANDS - APRIL 17: Alex Lowes of Great Britain riding bimota KB998 Rimini bimota by Kawasaki Racing Team competes in the practice sessions during the Pirelli Dutch Round (Round 3) of the WorldSBK or SBK FIM Superbike World Championship at TT Assen Circuit on April 17, 2026 in Assen, Netherlands. (Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images) | Getty Images
All four Rangers affiliates scored double digits yesterday. Yes, even Hub City.
Hickory starter Jormy Nivar allowed one run in four innings, striking out four and walking one.
Paulino Santana was 2 for 5 with a walk. Yolfran Castillo was had a hit and a walk. Marcos Torres was 2 for 3 with two walks and three stolen bases. Hector Osorio was 2 for 3 with a double, a triple, two walks, and three stolen bases. Josh Springer had a hit, a walk and a stolen base. Daniel Flames was 1 for 3 with a pair of walks. Esteban Mejia was 3 for 5.
Hub City starter J’Briell Easley threw two shutout innings, striking out three. Anthony Susac struck out two in 2.1 scoreless.
Maxton Martin tripled and drew two walks. Gleider Figuereo was 2 for 4 with a double, a homer and a walk. Yeison Morrobel had a pair of hits and a walk. Malcolm Moore drew a walk. Chandler Pollard drew a pair of walks.
Dane Acker started for Round Rock and gave up five runs in 2.1 IP, walking four and striking out one. Emiliano Teodo allowed an unearned run in 1.2 IP, walking one and striking out two. Thomas Ireland, apparently sent to Round Rock as a filler arm after the Express lost Cal Quantrill, Gavin Collyer and Marc Church from their pitching staff yesterday, struck out three, walked two and allowed one run in three innings. Robbie Ahlstrom allowed a two run homer in two innings, striking out one.
Justin Foscue had a hit and two walks. Aaron Zavala had a hit.
Apr 15, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Colorado Rockies pitcher Tanner Gordon delivers a pitch during the seventh inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
While there were several surprises on the Opening Day roster for the Rockies in 2026, the biggest — and most disappointing in my opinion — was Tanner Gordon being optioned to Triple-A on March 17.
Even though Gordon’s numbers weren’t amazing on the surface in 2025, when he posted an ERA of 6.33 in 15 starts with a 1.50 WHIP in 75 .1 innings, his growth and potential were notable. He threw seven quality starts, including in five of his last seven starts with 62 strikeouts and a 6-8 record, which helped build his confidence. The Rockies went 7-8 when Gordon was on the mound, giving Colorado a .466 winning percentage compared to their .265 mark on the season.
Not only was Gordon’s performance in 2025 enough to be a strong contender for the starting rotation in 2026, but he then also continued to make a strong case in spring training. In Scottsdale, Gordon went 1-0 with a 1.65 ERA in four appearances (three starts) with 12 strikeouts and only two walks in 11 innings, while also working on new pitches and refining his arsenal.
Regardless, Gordon started the season in Triple-A Albuquerque and continued to find success. In three starts, Gordon went 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA, 15 strikeouts and four walks in 16.1 innings. That’s why I was so thrilled to hear Gordon was called back up to the 26-man roster — where he belongs — on Tuesday.
Considering the early injuries to Jose Quintana and Kyle Freeland, and the early struggles of Michael Lorenzen and Ryan Feltner, the Rockies rotation needs help. Thus far, the Rockies bullpen has been impressive in long relief appearances from Chase Dollander and Antonio Senzatela, but having a four-man rotation is not a sustainable model for the Rockies. We know the bullpen will be asked to enter many games in the fifth and sixth innings, and they can’t be doing bullpen days every fifth game on top of that.
That’s why Gordon deserves a spot in the rotation — and not down the road, either. The Rockies need to put Gordon in the rotation now.
Gordon provided dominating evidence of why he belongs in the Big Leagues in his 2026 debut on Wednesday against the Houston Astros. When Quintana didn’t have his best stuff and was lucky to only give up three runs in 3.2 innings of work, the Rockies turned to Jaden Hill to finish the fourth and then Gordon to finish the game. The 29-year-old RHP held Houston’s high-powered offense to two hits in four scoreless innings. He walked one batter and struck out four, including three straight sent down swinging in the sixth inning.
When you dig deeper, Gordon’s performance is even more impressive. Forty of his 60 pitches were strikes, demonstrating the ability to hammer the strike zone, which is a core pitching pillar for Rockies pitching coach Alon Liechman. In addition, he mixed his pitches expertly, mainly relying on a four-seam fastball (45%), but sprinkling in his slider (30%), curveball (13%) and changeup (12%).
“I had a little bit more adrenaline coming out of the ‘pen,” Gordon told Jeremy Rakes of MLB.com. “Close ballgame. There’s a bunch of different factors. The fastball was feeling good. I was riding on that.”
After the game, Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer was pleased with Gordon’s debut.
“The vert was good. TG was awesome today. First time in the big leagues this year. That’s exactly what we saw in spring training. For him to carry it out like that in a big-time game like that — very impressive, and he just fits right in with the rest of the boys out there.”
The vert was indeed good.
Insanely good.
The vert, aka induced vertical break (IVB), which measures the vertical movement generated by a pitcher’s spin (backspin or topspin), excluding the effect of gravity, was working for Gordon. Baseball Savant’s graphics break it down nicely.
Gordon was getting 17.9 inches of rise, which is an increase from the 14.4 inches he averaged last year.
For comparison, Dodger pitcher Alex Vesia leads MLB in IVB with his four-seam fastball at 21.8 inches. Gordon is ranked No. 72, which is the best for Colorado (Quintana is next at No. 121 at 17 inches).
The movement helped Gordon strike out Joey Loperfido, Nick Allen and Brice Matthews on nearly identical four-seamers that were up and in. They all came on the rising four-seamer. Even though it’s a small sample size, Gordon registered a 47.4 Whiff% on his four-seamer and a 28.6 Whiff% with his slider. Gordon’s velocity didn’t overpower hitters, as his four-seam fastball averaged 94.6 mph, but the deception was palpable.
Having lost seven of their last eight games and heading into a homestand where the Rockies are hosting the Dodgers and Padres, the Colorado pitching staff needs help.
Tanner Gordon is an arm that could help deliver it.
The City Comets jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first inning, but the Isotopes rallied back with a four-run eighth to complete the comeback win. Vimael Machín hit two doubles and walked to drive in three runs, Blaine Crim hit two RBI singles, Adael Amador and Chad Stevens each added three hits, one run and one RBI and Drew Avans chipped in two hits and one run for Isotopes. Albuquerque totaled 14 hits. Gabriel Hughes had a rough start, giving up four runs on nine hits in three innings, but Patrick Weigel gave up only one run in the following 4.2 innings and Sammy Peralta put up a perfect 1.1 innings for the win.
Cole Messina hit a two-run homer, Andy Perez hit an RBI double and Dyan Jorge added an RBI single as the Yard Goats fought off a late comeback to win on Thursday night. Carlos Torres threw two scoreless innings to earn the win and Davison Palermo put up a scoreless ninth for the save in Hartford’s win.
In a back-and-forth contest, Vancouver came out on top with a four-run 10th inning to win on Thursday in extra innings. The Canadians scored first, taking a 3-0 lead in the fourth inning. Spokane rallied back with a five-run sixth inning to take a 5-3 lead. In the frame, Jacob Humphrey hit a two-run double to start it off and the Indians tied it up when Tommy Hopfe scored on a wild pitch. Alan Espinal walked in a run to help Spokane take the lead and then Kelvin Hidalgo scored on a fielding error for an insurance run.
As it turns out, it wasn’t enough as Vancouver’s Carter Cunningham hit a two-run homer in the ninth to send the game to extra innings. That’s when things got worse and Tucker Toman hit a grand slam in the top of the 10th for the win. Max Belyeu hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 10th, but it wasn’t enough for another comeback.
Matt Klein hit the game-winning, RBI single in the top of the 10th, while Seth Clausen pitched a scoreless ninth for the win and Austin Emener struck out to in a perfect 10th to earn the save for the Grizzlies. Kyle Fossum and Derek Bernard each hit solo homers for Fresno. JB Middleton gave up two runs in five innings in the start for the Grizzlies and Ethan Cole added 3.2 scoreless innings before Clausen entered the game.
This isn’t your average Rockies story. Apparently, there were more than six drone sightings around Coors Field during Opening Day weekend against the Phillies. While no one has been arrested, the Federal Aviation Administration and FBI issued a warning to keep drones away from the stadium because they violate safety rules. The warning was issued as the Rockies are set to begin a seven-game homestand against the Dodgers and Padres today.
Marcus Semien | (Photo by Caean Couto/Getty Images)
Meet the Mets
The Mets mercifully had the day off yesterday, and they’re set to begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field this afternoon as they attempt to snap an alarming eight-game losing streak.
Happy Friday, everyone. The Cubs are back home tonight and looking to keep the good times rolling, and with the struggling Mets coming to town, they might just get their wish. In the meantime, we’ll take a look at what’s happening around baseball. The top stories of the continuing trend of teams extending their breakout rookies, as the Tigers sign Kevin McGonigle to a monster eight-year extension worth $150 million. His (also rich) teammate, Tarik Skubal, teased McGonigle in a press conference, asking if the rookie would be treating the boys to dinner in Boston.
We also look at the thrilling resurgence of Mike Trout, who had an unreal series against the Yankees, and is reminding everyone of the Mike Trout of old, something I think all baseball fans can enjoy. And one Mariners reporter is getting a lot of heat online for trying to use AI to help her craft her questions.
There’s also an updated starting pitcher ranking to look at, while the Rockies are just trying to keep drones out of their airspace.
CLEARWATER, FLORIDA - MARCH 13, 2026: José Barrero #96 of the Baltimore Orioles looks on during the third inning of a spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at BayCare Ballpark on March 13, 2026 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images
Triple-A: Norfolk Tides 7, Durham Bulls (Rays) 2
Norfolk scored the only win on the farm last night. José Barrero led the charge with a pair of home runs and a triple. He finished 3-for-4 with four RBIs and four runs scored.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand played the Robin to Barrero’s Batman. Encarnacion-Strand finished 2-for-4 with two RBIs and a run scored. Ryan Noda and Bryan Ramos added the only other Norfolk hits.
Tides starter Nestor German matched Barrero’s big day with 10 strikeouts on the mound. German allowed one run on three hits and one walk over 4.1 innings. He threw 49-of-81 pitches for strikes.
After allowing 30 runs yesterday during a doubleheader, Chesapeake limited New Hampshire to only 12 runs on Thursday. Neither team scored in the first four innings, but the Fisher Cats sprung for six runs in the fourth. Baysox starter Evan Yates recorded only one out in the inning. He ended the day with six earned runs on six hits and six walks.
Frederick Bencosme and Douglas Hodo III cut the lead in half with RBI singles in the fifth, and Bencosme trimmed the deficit to two by putting the ball in play in the eighth. Unfortunately, the Fisher Cats posted their second six-spot of the day in the bottom half of the inning. Eric Torres and Christian Herberholz posted zeros, but Ben Vespi allowed the game to get out of hand with six earned in the eighth.
Tavian Josenberger plated two with a double in the ninth.
High-A: Hudson Valley Renegades (Yankees) 5, Frederick Keys 2
Frederick starter Joseph Dzierwa took the loss after allowing three runs in five innings. Baltimore’s second round pick from 2025 surrendered a two-out, two-run single in the top of the first. He settled in with four scoreless innings, but he left after issuing a leadoff walk in the sixth. Dzierwa ended his day with only two hits allowed, but the four walks proved costly. Juan Rojas allowed the inherited runner to score.
Frederick struggled to get things going at the dish. Vance Honeycutt scored the team’s first run on a bizarre play in the fifth. With the bases empty, Honeycutt snuck a ball beyond a diving center fielder. Honeycutt slipped when rounding second, but the throw sailed over the third baseman’s head. Honeycutt came all the way around to score on a little league home run.
Honeycutt plated Ike Irish with a base hit in the bottom of the ninth.
Delmarva struck first when Stiven Martinez raced home on a wild pitch in the first, but Fredericksburg rattled off six straight runs. DJ Layton plated Martinez with a single in the sixth, but the Nationals tacked on two more to prevent things from getting interesting.
The Shorebirds managed only four hits in the game. Layton and Andrés Nolaya singled, Jordan Sanchez doubled, and Martinez tripled in the sixth.
Todd Kniebbe kept Fredericksburg off the board over the final 2.1 innings. Starter Brayan Orrantia allowed three earned over four innings, and Dalton Neuschwander coughed up five over 1.2 frames. Box scores
Friday’s Schedule
Norfolk: at Durham, 6:45 pm. Starter: Levi Wells (1-1, 1.26 ERA)
Chesapeake: at New Hampshire, 6:03 pm. Starter: Luis De León (1-1, 6.00 ERA)
Frederick: vs Hudson Valley, 7:00 pm. Starter: JT Quinn (0-0, 1.00 ERA)
Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas speaks at a press conference on Friday, Jan. 23, 2025. (Emily Curiel/Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
The Kansas City Royals are 7-12 and just lost a heartbreaker to the Detroit Tigers on Thursday afternoon. Despite that, I imagine that there were still plenty of smiles at 1 Royal Way yesterday after the KCMO City Council passed a stadium financing ordinance that could provide up to $600 million for the construction of a new stadium in the “Washington Square Park/Crown Center area.” The vote passed 11-1-1. This vote was a big step for KCMO to keep the Royals in the city, but it’s just a step with more to come. This legislation authorizes KCMO City Manager Mario Vasquez to officially start negotiating with the Royals, as we see in Section 3 of the bill:
Section 3. That the City Manager is hereby directed to negotiate, in coordination with the appropriate agencies, a comprehensive lease and a comprehensive development agreement with the Kansas City Royals organization, developers, city incentive agencies, and other relevant parties for the development of a new stadium and team offices in the Washington Square Park/Crown Center area.
Kansas City Star reporter Dylan Lysen wrote a quality article on what this does and does not mean, and what steps are next:
It mostly sets up a general framework and roadmap for city officials to reach agreements with the Royals and other government agencies who would all be involved in bringing the stadium to life.
Getting the project any further along will not only require buy-in from the team and the state, but the City Council will also still need to approve any funding promises, a lease and other details at a later date before construction can begin.
The Royals seem pleased with the vote; they released a statement stating:
The Royals remain grateful for the work and attention of local leaders. We respect the process, which includes the City Council and Parks Board consideration, and the City Manager’s presentation of a term sheet for review and negotiation, with a long-term vision that we expect to include one of the largest private investments in Kansas City history. As always, our motivation is to find the best solution for our team, our fans, and our community. We’re excited by the possibilities this opportunity presents for our hometown
The team’s success in local politics did not translate on to the field, as the team lost 10-9 in a walk-off in Detroit. Lucas Erceg, who blew the save in the ninth inning, shouldered the blame for the loss:
“We finally turn the corner, and I just come out and blow the lead like that and lose the game. So, I feel like this loss is on me. But, then again, there’s always tomorrow. And I’m going to be ready for tomorrow. I hope that I’m in the same situation tomorrow night and get back to winning.”
For something more positive, Kiri Oler referenced a piece of literature I’d never heard of breakdown of Seth Lugo’s pitches that was way above my head but still an enjoyable read:
In defense of the hitters, Lugo gives them a complicated set of variables to consider during the small window of time allotted for a swing decision. He’s got seven(ish) pitches to his name, and they all make an essential contribution to who he is as a pitcher.
Maybe the Royals can channel the power of Mike Trout when they face the New York Yankees this weekend. The slugger hit his fifth home-run in the four game series at New York on Thursday.
Old friend Mark Canha has asked to be released by the Texas Rangers so he can pursue big league opportunities with another team.
Old friend Richard Lovelady has been acquired by the Washington Nationals from the New York Mets.
The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds had their benches clear after the final out of the Giants 3-0 victory.
The San Diego Padres could be sold as early as next week that could approach a record $3.5 billion.
Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach expects a lot of trades during the 2026 NFL Draft.
DENVER, CO - APRIL 4: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets handles the ball against Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs on April 4, 2026 at Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
It feels like the difference between the NBA’s regular season and playoffs becomes more stark every year. While high-scoring games and tanking talk dominated the national discourse over the league’s 82-game slog, there was quietly a fascinating championship race bubbling beneath the surface. There are several viable contenders in both conferences this season, and if the play-in tournament is any indication, the product is going to be so much more competitive and engaging than the regular season ever was.
The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the playoffs as the favorites to win it all, and they’re fighting against the recent history of the league to do it. No team has won back-to-back championships since Kevin Durant was on the Golden State Warriors back in 2017 and 2018. OKC has the likely MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander along with the league’s best defense, but occasional outside shooting woes and lingering injuries to co-star Jalen Williams make the Thunder vulnerable.
The San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets are both dreaming of winning it all behindx their superstar big men Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic. The race in the East is even more wide open with the top four teams in the playoff bracket all believing they have what it takes to reach the 2026 NBA Finals.
With the playoffs about to get underway, let’s rank every team in the field by their championship chances. We’ll update this story with the two No. 8 seeds once those are decided in the final round of the play-in tournament.
14. Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are back in the playoffs for the first time in five years, and they have a strong foundation to continue growing for the future. Portland has a burgeoning star creator in Deni Avdija and a defense that ranked No. 3 in the league since the All-Star break. Avdija’s ability to take bumps on his drives to the rim and consistently get to the foul line gives this team a chance to generate consistent offense when everything else fails. Donovan Clingan feels like a star in the making for his rebounding and rim protection, but he’s about to have his hands full against Victor Wembanyama in the first round. I think Portland can take a game off the Spurs, but I’d be surprised with anything more than that.
13. Los Angeles Lakers
It’s a shame that the Lakers will head into the offseason without knowing how good this team truly is. Luka Doncic’s hamstring strain and Austin Reaves’ oblique strain will decimate Los Angeles’ chances in the playoffs with both expected to miss the start of their first-round series against Houston, if not the entire thing. LeBron James is the focal point once again for the Lakers, but he just doesn’t have enough help to advance even if Houston can get caught in the mud offensively. I would have picked the Lakers to win this series with Doncic and Reaves healthy, but that’s not the case, so I have to go with the Rockets.
12. Toronto Raptors
The Raptors deserve a lot of credit for jumping from 30 wins to 46 wins on the back of an elite defense. Scottie Barnes has taken a real leap on both ends, the Brandon Ingram addition has worked out reasonably well, and the front office has hit the jackpot with some value free agent signings (Sandro Mamukelashvili) and second-round picks (Jamal Shead). The catch with Toronto’s turnaround is they still can’t beat a good team, with most of their wins coming by taking care of business against bottom-feeders. The Raptors at least know who they are as a team, which should work to their advantage in a first-round series against a new-look Cleveland team that’s still coming together after the trade deadline. I’d be surprised if Toronto wins a series, but they should keep things competitive if nothing else.
11. Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid’s health has haunted the 76ers on just about every playoff run of his career, and it’s happening again. Embiid is sidelined after having his appendix removed earlier this month, but Philly didn’t need him to earn the No. 7 seed in the East by beating the Magic in the play-in. Tyrese Maxey has had a special season, and he can take over any game in crunch-time even if the Boston Celtics have some ideal defenders to throw on him. Embiid miraculously returning to peak form would give Philly a chance in this series, but Boston still feels like a comfortable favorite to advance, even if it takes six games.
10. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks traded Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis ahead of the deadline, and suddenly morphed into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. Since the deadline, Atlanta ranks No. 6 in the league in net-rating, outscoring opponents by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. The New York Knicks have more talent on paper, but the Hawks are playing such good ball on both ends that there’s a real chance for an upset. Atlanta has the bodies to throw at Jalen Brunson on the perimeter, with Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels getting the assignment most of the series. Alexander-Walker will also be counted on to produce offensively as he shares the creation burden with C.J. McCollum. The fun thing about the Hawks is that almost everyone in the lineup can attack off the dribble, and it should put a Knicks team with a couple weak links defensively in an uncomfortable position. I still like New York to advance, but it won’t be easy.
9. Houston Rockets
The Rockets felt like they would be toast in the first round of the playoffs for most of the second half of the season, but a strong closing kick plus a favorable matchup against a Lakers team missing its two best players gives Houston a reason to believe. The Rockets aren’t the same team without injured starters Steven Adams and Fred VanVleet, but there’s still a pathway to advancing here. Kevin Durant has put up an All-NBA caliber year at age-37, and he’s again going to have to carry the offense for long stretches in this series. Alperen Sengun is a workhorse in the middle who should have his way with Deandre Ayton. Amen Thompson could be a breakout candidate with elite defense and transition scoring, but there are questions about his halfcourt offense. It’s hard to believe we’re getting another KD vs. LeBron series in 2026 — it would just be a lot more fun if everyone else around them was healthy.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Wolves vs. Nuggets might be the best rivalry in the NBA at this point as the two teams prepare for their third playoff series in four years. The Wolves remain something of a mystery even after 82-games with recent injuries to Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels, the trade deadline acquisition of Ayo Dosunmu, and the integration of Bones Hyland into a real rotation piece. Minnesota is still an elite defensive team with Rudy Gobert on the floor, posting a 109.4 defensive rating in his minutes that would have ranked third in the league. Of course, Nikola Jokic poses unique problems even for the league’s best defenders, and it feels like Minnesota’s only real chance is if it’s offense reaches levels it hasn’t hit during the regular season. Edwards will have to play at his best level to give Minnesota a chance, but the Wolves also need Julius Randle to repeat his inspired playoff run last year, and for Dosunmu and Naz Reid to stay hot as shooters. It feels like a long-shot the Wolves can win this series, but it’s hard to discount them after back-to-back conference finals trips.
7. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs traded Darius Garland for James Harden at the deadline to become bigger, tougher, and more durable for the playoffs. Harden turned in another All-NBA caliber season at age-36, but it’s hard to trust him in the playoffs after so many high profile failures. Cleveland’s biggest issue is that the team just hasn’t really been healthy all season, but it finally seems like they should have all their key pieces for this run. Harden has helped take Jarrett Allen’s offense to the next level, and their pick-and-roll combination could determine Cleveland’s offensive ceiling just as much as Donovan Mitchell’s shot-making. The Cavs’ defense has been a little spotty, and keeping Toronto in check in transition will be a good gauge of their overall level. It feels like the Cavs could be in for more changes if they go bust on this run (a LeBron reunion, anyone?), but there’s still significant upside here if it all comes together.
6. New York Knicks
The Knicks have tons of talent, but often leave their fans wanting a little bit more. The starting lineup has essentially played teams even for two years, and that’s not good enough given the cap space and future assets devoted to that grouping. Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns should be a deadly pick-and-roll combination, and they’ve started to look a bit more in-tune to end the season. Miles McBride is back from injury and offers some sorely needed shot-making upside and lineup versatility. Mitchell Robinson always feels like an injury waiting to happen, but his offensive rebounding is dominant and can change a series. I want to see how the Knicks can defend against Atlanta’s transition offense and unpredictable pick-and-roll combinations. I want to see if Brunson and KAT can stay on the floor defensively together in the game’s biggest moments. The Knicks can absolutely win the East, but it feels like they should have been the favorite given preseason expectations, and I can’t confidently say that’s the case.
5. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons’ worst-to-first story is absolutely incredible. Two years ago, Detroit won 14 games. This season? 60 games and the No. 1 seed in the East. Cade Cunningham is back from a collapsed lung, and should be ready to carry this team in tough moments. The star point guard has a lot on his plate because Detroit just doesn’t have much shooting or halfcourt creation around him. The Pistons spent the regular season developing the league’s deepest bench, and players like Daniss Jenkins and Paul Reed are about to be in the spotlight for big minutes. Jaren Duren needs to prove his offensive explosion can translate to playoff settings, while the wing combination of Ausar Thompson and Ron Holland must prove they are ready for primetime so early in their careers. Detroit’s model of an elite defense and a superstar guard worked pretty well for the Thunder in their championship run last season. A lack of trust in the offense is the one thing holding me back from picking Detroit to make the Finals, but they have as good a chance as anyone in the East.
4. Boston Celtics
Raise your hand if you believed the Celtics would be in for a gap year as Jayson Tatum recovered from a torn Achilles. I’m ashamed to admit I thought so, too. Instead, the Celtics enter the playoffs as the Eastern Conference favorites, with Tatum back in the lineup and a young and more athletic supporting cast around him. Joe Mazzulla got the most out of the patchwork front court, and now Neemias Queta needs to cement his breakout season in the playoffs. Jaylen Brown’s career year will also be under the microscope on this run, as will the shot distribution between him and Tatum late in close games. Derrick White getting hot with his shot would change everything for Boston, but he’s still somehow an elite player even when his jumper is cold. Boston’s offense always hunts great shots, and the defense is even tougher with Tatum happy to do the dirty work. This isn’t the best Celtics team of the Jays era, but it’s still damn good, and maybe even the best in the East.
3. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs’ preseason win total was set at 44.5 games by Vegas. Instead, San Antonio won 62 games and forced some uncomfortable questions about whether Victor Wembanyama is already the best player in the world. The Spurs put the rest of the NBA on alert by beating defending champion Thunder three straight times in Dec., and they kept rolling from there. Wembanyama is a problem without a solution for opponents; there are times where I think he’s the most talented player in league history thanks to his 8-foot wingspan, elite speed and coordination, high motor, and burgeoning skill. San Antonio was widely expected to have shooting questions around their young French superstar, but that didn’t really matter much as Julian Champagnie, Harrison Barnes, and Devin Vassell all hit at least 38 percent from deep. The spotlight will be on Stephon Castle to prove himself as a future All-Star, and there are some questions about how his physical two-way player translates without proven shooting ability. The Spurs finally put a good supporting cast around Wemby just as he reached a new level of dominance. This team is absolutely going to win championships eventually, but there are a couple veteran teams in front of them that I think will be hard to get past this year.
2. Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the world since the dawn of the 2020s, and this playoff run is shaping up to be a golden opportunity to continue adding to his legendary resume. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander feels like he’s finally started to pull away Jokic’s crown, and Wembanyama is coming for it if he doesn’t already have it. Jokic is simply too good of a player to retire with only one championship, and this is a real chance to win another one. The Nuggets improved their depth over the offseason, which came in handy as they were hit by a rash of injuries to key rotation pieces during the regular season. As the bench developed, Jamal Murray solidified his place as a worthy second banana by turning in the best season of his career. We’ve seen Murray have killer playoff runs before, and he feels primed for one this year. The health of Aaron Gordon and to a lesser extent Peyton Watson could determine Denver’s ceiling. If they can beat the Wolves, a potential second round matchup with the Spurs is looming, and the winner likely gets the Thunder. It’s an incredibly difficult road just to get to the Finals, but Denver has the offensive ceiling to do it. Will they defend enough? Will they stay healthy? Denver still has some questions to answer, but if it all comes together, it still has championship upside.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder felt like a potential dynasty after winning the championship last season, and now the basketball world is about to see if they’re up for it. OKC’s championship defense is every bit as good as it was a year ago. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander almost feels unstoppable at this point: he’s slippery enough to get wherever he wants with his handle, long enough to shoot over anyone, and his knockdown touch on mid-range pull-ups is suddenly now extending beyond the three-point line. Every other piece on the Thunder plays their role to support SGA, and there are multiple members of this supporting cast destined for stardom in their own right. Chet Holmgren is an elite two-way big with excellent rim protection and the perimeter skill of a wing. Cason Wallace is growing into a lockdown defender, and Ajay Mitchell is developing into the supplementary ball handler OKC needs when Shai sits. The shooting can be a little bit spotty, and Jalen Williams missing most of the season to this point is certainly unnerving. It’s easy to forget that the Thunder really didn’t look all that dominant on their playoff run last season, getting the benefit of opponent injury luck in their two toughest series. Still, this defense will travel in any matchup, they won’t have to play Denver or San Antonio until the conference finals, and SGA really is tracking as an all-time great. The Thunder are good enough to break the NBA’s no repeats streak. It’s going to take a Herculean effort to stop them.
