Gamethread 6/4: Phillies vs Padres

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JUNE 03: J.T. Realmuto #10 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates a solo home run with Adolis García #53 in the seventh inning during a game against the San Diego Padres at Citizens Bank Park on June 03, 2026 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Here are the lineups for the series (and season) finale against the Padres. Let’s discuss!

For the Phillies:

For the Padres:

Red Sox Minor Lines: Silent night (at the plate)

FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - MARCH 12, 2026: Kristian Campbell #28 of the Boston Red Sox bats during the second inning of a spring training game against the Minnesota Twins at Lee Health Sports Complex on March 12, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images) | Diamond Images/Getty Images

Worcester: L, 0-12 (BOX SCORE)

Simply put: the WooSox got carved up by the Bison (Blue Jays AAA) pitching staff. Former Ray pitcher Josh Fleming pitched seven innings of two-hit ball and retired 16 consecutive batters en route to an easy win. To say Eduardo Rivera and Angel Bastardo out of relief couldn’t keep up with this lack of offensive firepower would be an understatement; the WooSox couldn’t find the strike zone all night, walking fourteen Bison throughout the day while allowing them seven hits with runners in scoring position. It got to the point where Nathan Hickey, a first baseman, pitched the ninth and gave up a tater.

Portland: W, 10-7 (BOX SCORE)

No, Franklin Arias, did not hit a home run, though he did get a knock against Hartford (Rockies AA). Johanfran Garcia hoisted a ball into the seats, making a 7-6 game a 9-6 game in a shot that’d make all the difference. While the Sea Dogs pitching allowed three homers, the offense answered with three of their own and got them where it matters. And it wasn’t just home runs that made a difference in this game: the Sea Dogs had just a 12% chance of winning the game entering the fifth, but Abhram Liendo’s home run followed by a Nelly Taylor bases-clearing pop up just outside the infield certainly shifted matters.

Greenville: W, 9-3 (BOX SCORE)

While Jack Winnay’s ninth home run in High-A put a pebble in Rome (Braves High-A) pitcher Cedric DeGrandpre’s armor, the Drive hitting him around to start the sixth to the tune of five runs and boosting a tie game into a 7-2 lead. Despite committing three defensive errors, all it took was that one rally in which they hit around the lineup, and it completely changed the complexion of an otherwise close game.

Salem: L, 1-2 (BOX SCORE)

Seen enough of the Red Sox’s offense wasting good pitching starts? Well, it happened in A-ball as the RidgeYaks hit 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position against the Warbirds (Brewers A). Jason Gilman, the 23-year-old from Staten Island and a former Division III player (certainly a rarity…) looked incredible, making it through six innings with 64 pitches, allowing just two hits and no walks, striking out ten, even retiring one runner who reached base via a double play. But Salem just couldn’t pull a winnable game in, stranding 11 and getting caught stealing three times, even one of which would have been crucial.

Have a thunderous Thursday.

Jeff Passan: Braves should “swing big” for Tarik Skubal at MLB Trade Deadline

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 29: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers on the field prior to a game against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on April 29, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/IOS/Getty Images) | Getty Images

With the calendar now having flipped to June, it’s only natural to start thinking about other events looming on the baseball horizon (well, outside of the potentially apocalyptic event that’s awaiting everybody once this offseason officially gets underway). One of those is the Trade Deadline, which is set for August 3 this season.

As such, Jeff Passan of ESPN has decided that since we’re just under two months away from that always-fateful day in the baseball season, now’s the time to start figuring out what each team is going to be up to at the deadline. Some teams have more modest goals than others and some teams should be attempting to swing for the fences. Jeff Passan has our Atlanta Braves as one of the teams that should absolutely be going for it at the deadline and honestly, I’d agree with that notion.

Assuming the ball club keeps this up this incredible form, this could shape up to be Atlanta’s best chance in years at making a legitimate World Series run and one of the best ways to make sure that this team is continuing to pull in the right direction for the long haul is to give the squad an adrenaline injection around late-July/early-August with an impact addition or two.

In fact, Passan is suggesting that the Braves should make what would likely be the biggest impact addition of the deadline by adding All-World starting pitcher Tarik Skubal into the fold. Here’s a snippet from Passan’s article where he’s talking about what the Tigers should do at the deadline:

2026 unquestionably will be The Skubal Deadline. Provided the two-time defending American League Cy Young Award winner returns from his elbow scope healthy and effective, he will be the focus for every contender. It doesn’t matter that he’s a free agent after the season. The deadline is largely about contenders shoring up pitching staffs, and there’s no better bulwark than the best pitcher in the world. And, no, the prorated amount — around $10 million of his $32 million salary — will not be an impediment. If you can get Tarik Skubal, you get Tarik Skubal.

Here’s where Passan brings the Braves into it:

Hurston Waldrep, is on a rehab assignment. Another, Spencer Schwellenbach, is throwing. And A.J. Smith-Shawver, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, is ramping up bullpens. It’s not out of the question for all three to rejoin Atlanta by the end of the season.

So why Skubal? Because he’s Skubal. And because all those young arms — not to mention J.R. Ritchie and Cam Caminiti in the minor leagues, and Didier Fuentes at the big league level — give them the firepower to get him. To beat the Dodgers, teams need to assemble a wrecking crew that can go toe-to-toe with the first back-to-back World Series champions in a quarter-century. Starting a series with Skubal and Chris Sale — and having Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder to fill out the rotation — is quite a place to begin.

Now granted, it’s not like Passan is doing any type of actual reporting here — he’s just simply suggesting that the Braves should aim high when it comes to their Trade Deadline aspirations. He also has Skubal as the best fit for basically every team that’s currently flying high in the standings, so it’s also not like he’s exclusively linking Skubal to the Braves, either.

With that being said, I can see the vision. Sure, the Braves will have most of their planned rotation back in action by the time the second half of the season is in swing. They also have some encouraging pitching prospects on the farm that could potentially make some noise as well. Passan mentioned them in his clip and we’ve seen already with Didier Fuentes just how electric he can be when his stuff is really working.

Still, I like to relate this type of thing to that one episode of Family Guy where Peter Griffin and his wife Lois are talking with a sleazy salesman and deciding between receiving a gift of a boat or a mystery prize. While Lois is smartly suggesting that they should just take the boat, Peter is thinking “Yeah, it’s a boat but the mystery prize could be anything! It could even be a boat!” Then the mystery prize turns out to be tickets to a local comedy show while the couple returns home to watch all of their neighbors zooming around the neighborhood in their boats.

So while Ritchie, Caminiti and Fuentes and throw whoever else you want into this fold are all exciting prospects, they’re still mystery boxes at this point compared to the golden boat that is Tarik Skubal. If there’s any possibility of the Braves potentially getting Tarik Skubal and bringing him into the fold, no matter what the cost is, the Braves need to choose the boat in this scenario.

Even if the prospects turn out to become boats themselves, the Braves might be in need of a boat right now more than ever. If you look at the Braves and their “championship window,” you could say that they’re currently in Year 9 of that window after breaking through to win the NL East and return to the Postseason back in 2018. More-than-likely, the Braves are closer to potentially having to rebuild (or at least do a serious retool) than they are to having this window open much longer.

Chris Sale is still fantastic but he’s also 37. Matt Olson is still producing at the plate but he’s going to be 33. Ozzie Albies’ contract is going to be up soon. Sean Murphy may never be the same after his hip injury. Atlanta’s a year-or-two away from potentially having to answer a $500 million question about Ronald Acuña Jr. and his future. Left field is still a revolving door after Jurickson Profar made some pretty dumb decisions. Things are back on track right now but Alex Anthopoulos is going to have a tricky juggling session in the future when it comes to either extending this window or deciding to go in a different direction at some point in the relatively near future.

As such, this does seem like one of those years where if the Braves are in position to go for it, they should. If Tarik Skubal is available (which he likely will be) and Atlanta has any chance of swinging a deal with Detroit, they should be pursuing that with everything they’ve got. It’s one of those things that sounds like a wacky lil’ trade proposal that you’d see anybody cook up on social media because they’re bored and think that this is MLB: The Show but at the same time, when you have guys like Passan talking about it, the possibility of this happening is at least non-zero. That’s better than zero!

I’d like to once agin stress the fact that this isn’t reporting and this is just pure speculation from everybody involved. Alex Anthopoulos did indicate during a pregame interview on this past Sunday that the team would be active at the deadline in order to keep the foot on the pedal but there’s still nothing tangible linking the Braves to Tarik Skubal. With that being said, if there’s even the slightest possibility that Detroit is coveting what Atlanta has in terms of trade assets, there should be no hesitation from the Braves as to what they should do — at least in my opinion. We’ll see what happens.

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

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The red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers look to stay hot as they conclude a four-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks in triple-digit temperatures in Phoenix.

The hot stretch (16-4 in their last 20 games), combined with Justin Wrobleski’s unsustainable production, results in the visitors being overvalued.

See my full rationale for backing the home team and the Over with my Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, June 4.

Who will win Dodgers vs Diamondbacks today: Diamondbacks (+118)

Justin Wrobleski’s fluky 2.87 ERA makes him an overvalued asset. He’s especially poor at missing bats, ranking in the fifth percentile in whiff rate and the 13th percentile in K rate. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks are uniquely positioned to exploit this weakness. They have the lowest K rate (13.2%) against LHP over the last 30 days while sporting a robust 120 wRC+. 

Ryne Nelson is coming off a sizzling May (2.95 ERA, 0.98 WHIP) and has limited the Los Angeles Dodgers’ projected lineup to a .194 AVG and .630 OPS across 98 at-bats. 

Good up to +110.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Arizona has been demolishing sliders, posting the third-most runs above average (7.4) against the offering in the last 20 days. Wrobleski relies heavily on the slider, throwing it 33% of the time as essentially his only non-fastball offering. 

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (+110)

Two flyball pitchers facing two hot lineups at hitter-friendly Chase Field? Sign me up for the Over. 

Nelson has a fifth percentile groundball rate and a ninth percentile barrel rate, and LA has the best wRC+ (132) against RHP in the last 20 days. 

Wrobelski has a 25th percentile groundball rate and poor stuff (95 Stuff+), which could spell trouble at Chase Field (second-highest park factor of 104).

Both teams rank inside the top 10 in hard-hit rate over the last 20 days. The loud contact in the air from both starters will result in several big flies.

JD Yonke's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 20-19, -3.63 units
  • Over/Under bets: 29-11, +17.61 units

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks odds

  • Moneyline: Dodgers -125 | Diamondbacks +122
  • Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (+115) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-130) | Under 9.5 (+117)

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks trend

The Diamonbacks have cashed the moneyline in 31 of their last 50 home games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks.

How to watch Dodgers vs Diamondbacks and game info

LocationChase Field, Phoenix, AZ
DateThursday, June 4, 2026
First pitch9:40 p.m. ET
TVSNLA, DBacks.TV
Dodgers starting pitcherJustin Wrobleski
(7-2, 2.87 ERA)
Diamondbacks starting pitcherRyne Nelson
(2-4, 4.82 ERA)

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks latest injuries

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Today In Jays History: Jays Come Back From 10-0 To Beat Red Sox

CANADA - JULY 14: George Bell 1989 and on (Photo by Ron Bull/Toronto Star via Getty Images) | Toronto Star via Getty Images

37 Years Ago Today

This is one of my all-time favorite games, played in 1989. But then any game where we beat the Red Sox is a favorite game.

The Blue Jays defeated the Red Sox 13-11 in 12 innings.

After six innings, the Red Sox led 10-0.

Alex Sanchez started for the Jays. He was the team’s first-round draft pick in 1987 and quickly advanced through the minors—perhaps too quickly. Player development has evolved significantly since then. In 1988, his first full season of professional baseball, Sanchez threw 207 innings—a workload unheard of by today’s standards. Minor league seasons are shorter now, and no pitcher, especially a first-year pro, would ever throw 200 innings (very few throw 200 innings in the majors these days, only three in 2025). For comparison, in 2019, Yennsy Diaz led the Fisher Cats with 144 innings, which was likely the most by any Jays minor leaguer that year.

Sanchez made three starts and one relief appearance in 1989, his only season in the majors. This game marked his final start; he recorded just one out while allowing three hits, a home run, three walks, and five earned runs.

Xavier Hernandez entered to stop the bleeding in the first inning. He surrendered a run in each of the next three innings and two in the sixth, but managed to eat up innings, pitching 6.2 frames while allowing eight hits, five runs (two earned), three walks, and striking out two.

Hernandez was also a rookie that year, appearing in seven games for the Jays. After the season, he was claimed by the Astros in the Rule 5 draft. He went on to enjoy a 10-year MLB career, pitching in 463 games, mostly as a reliever.

The comeback began in the seventh. The Jays scored two runs after Red Sox starter Mike Smithson walked Lloyd Moseby and Ernie Whitt to start the inning. Bob Stanley entered in relief and walked Rance Mulliniks to load the bases. Nelson Liriano grounded into a double play, scoring one, and Junior Felix followed with a ground-rule double to bring in another. It still felt like a missed opportunity.

In the eighth, the Jays put up four more runs. With one out, George Bell, Fred McGriff, and Moseby hit consecutive singles to score two. After another out, Mulliniks doubled in another run, and Liriano singled, making it 10-6.

In the ninth, Toronto scored five runs. Tony Fernandez singled, Kelly Gruber walked, and Bell doubled, making it 10-7. After Moseby walked to load the bases, Whitt delivered a grand slam, putting the Jays ahead 11-10.

Unfortunately, Tom Henke surrendered a run in the bottom of the ninth, sending the game to extra innings.

Dennis Lamp pitched scoreless tenth and eleventh innings for the Red Sox, but Duane Ward matched him for the Jays.

In the 12th inning, Tom Lawless led off with a single, Liriano bunted him to second, and Felix followed with a home run. 13-11, Jays.

Ward pitched a perfect bottom of the 12th to secure the win.

Jays of the Day: Whitt (.612 WPA, mainly for the grand slam); Ward (.375, for three innings of no-hit relief); Felix (.298, 3-for-7, including the game-winning homer); and David Wells (.113, who recorded the final out of the ninth).

Other Award: Henke (-.405, for the blown save); Sanchez (-.358); and McGriff (-.144, 1-for-6 on the day, with three errors—two on a single play after mishandling a ground ball and then making an errant throw in an attempt to recover).

The Jays improved to 23-31, second-last in the AL East, while the Red Sox dropped to 24-27, third in the division. Toronto finished strong and claimed first place by season’s end, but ultimately lost to the A’s in the ALCS.

The Knicks figured out the Spurs faster than anyone else in NBA Finals

Jun 3, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson (11) comes off the court after game one of the 2026 NBA Finals at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

SAN ANTONIO – The NBA’s defending champions required five regular season games and seven Western Conference Finals bashfests to suss out San Antonio’s Spurs, failed.

The Knicks needed but three quarters. Another dynamite fourth quarter from Knick hero Jalen Brunson gave New York its first Finals lead in a over a half-century on Wednesday night, toppling San Antonio 105-95 in Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals.

That previous Finals advantage, a 4-1 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1973 NBA Finals, was celebrated by Knick reserve center Phil Jackson on a beach at Malibu with an unnamed actress, according to Phil’s book ‘Maverick,’ Jackson “gobbling LSD for breakfast.”

Brunson (and Knicks coach Mike Brown, for that matter) appeared to show little instinct toward toward Phil’s breakfast of champions after Game 1, giving every indication these current Knicks keep these sainted Spurs in sensible range.

And within the same level as previous combatants. We worried over the Knicks faltering against stiff Western competition after facing Atlanta, Philadelphia and Cleveland in the previous three rounds (Eh, Woof, and Whatever). We shoulda concerned ourselves with whether or not San Antonio was ready for the team that only needed 14 outings to escape the East.

The visiting Knicks delicately primed past the restrictions of rust in the team’s first contest since May 25. New York was down 10 points in the second quarter and 14 in the third before colluding to surprise San Antonio in what the NBA calls “clutch minutes,” the final five minutes of a close game. Timing issues aside, it felt as if every second of Game 1 was crucially clutch, the utter and pristine picture of all-out NBA playoff basketball.

Brunson finished with 30 but was no angel on his way toward the mark, flinging lefty hopers over the arms of Victor Wembanyama, spinning out repeatedly on floaters and only using arms on in-and-out three-pointers. Those were practice legs, scrimmage flings, and Brunson (7-22 entering the third period, 5-9 from the floor in the final 12 minutes) needed every second surrounding him to re-locate his crouch.

Once the legs returned, though, over. Brunson’s corner three off a Mikal Bridges offensive rebound with 1:50 remaining gave New York a 97-95 lead, all the grasp it needed. Rust was absolutely an issue, for these visiting Knicks, now they’ll band together to earn a full endorsement deal with an anti-rust spray, we won’t name any brands because we’re not sponsored ourselves, but watch for “polyurethane resins” to be uttered by Jose Alvarado on an advertisement sometime this summer.

Alvarado helped keep the visitor’s wits throughout, his presence was badly needed in the second quarter when Brunson turned his ankle and left the game. Alvarado, perhaps buoyed by Brunson bounding over with both legs to complain to Scott Foster during the injury timeout, hit 3-of-3 from the field in his run, seven points, three defensive boards and an assist and a steal, because he’s Jose Alvarado.

Bothered by foul trouble, Josh Hart barely worked that second quarter. Josh made up for it.

In one of the finest three-point performances in NBA Finals history, Hart’s derring-do stole the home court advantage right out from Texas’ ten-gallon hat. Four steals and six assists from Hart, who covered all angles defensively while still sustaining his sniff for the passing lanes. His shot was off (1-5 from the field, 0-3 from deep) but he was in the right place in every other instance, a superior all-around performance, even if his jumper doesn’t go all the way around.

The home team failed to clasp past 100 points per 100 possessions, the Spurs missed three-quarters of their threes and wasted a four-turnover game, and 15-point first half from Julian Champagnie. Wembanyama was a force defensively but missed 16-21 field goal attempts on his way toward 26 points, a dozen boards and six turnovers, three blocks.

De’Aaron Fox clunked 3-13 from the field on one leg. The veteran developed good looks in the fourth quarter, missed, while Dylan Harper (16 points and seven rebounds through three quarters) watched from the bench. Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson, cherished Spurs veterans but a little hype in Game 1, somewhat charged, possibly caffeinated, 5-15 from the floor combined.

It was a learning experience. Fans talked themselves into shouting “Spurs in five” on the way out of the building in Game 1 and, yeah, it ain’t hard to see what’s under that hat. San Antonio does have a seven-and-a-half-foot center with skills, after all.

Yet New York proved none of this counts if the center in question is centimeters removed from what matters, the best attempt available, a Knick splash. New York missed 25-36 three-pointers in Game 1, but its concentration and approach was apparent from the rafters. If Wemby is slightly out of focus, dive to the rim as if the season depends on it. The Knicks are to be commended for maintaining a straight line to the rim anytime Wembanyama was bothered elsewhere, held or held up, New York launching the millisecond his fingertips were no obstacle.

These moments usually require hours to develop, entire games. The Thunder ran out of time, the Timberwolves rarely earned the pause, the Trail Blazers never even caught up to Central time. Yet New York kept its principles in place throughout Game 1 until these fundamentals found paydirt. Until the legs returned, finally out of Connecticut’s practice sweats for the first time in over a week.

The Spurs understand what they have to do now, yet that knowledge was in place well ahead of Game 1. It’s the connection which counts the most, and San Antonio must find out who its conductor is.

New York knows. This is Brunson’s team, the Villanova cats with two battling bigs. Karl-Anthony Towns put himself on the floor throughout Game 1, 18 points and 18 chestbumps with Wemby while defending Victor. Front-to-front stuff, too, the awkward kind.

KAT and Mitchell Robinson’s mystery finger were, in spite of Victor’ 12-13 mark from the free throw line, a bruise-in-waiting for Wembanyama to push through. The Knicks are thick up top and soulful down below and full of brains and wit throughout the middle.

The Spurs are running out of time to define their own personalities, as the showcase in Manhattan draws nearer. The younger team is capable, but can they hold in the face of a crew which doesn’t crack?

Kelly Dwyer covers the NBA at KDonhoops.com

Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for June 4

The Orioles (29-32) and the Red Sox (25-34) wrap up their three-game series this afternoon at Fenway Park with Trevor Rogers (2-6, 6.84) set to take the mound against Brayan Bello (2-5, 5.63).

 

The series is tied at a game apiece following last night’s 8-1 win for the Sox. Boston’s offense broke out with 15 hits led by Wilyer Abreu who drove in three runs – two courtesy of his seventh home run of the season - and Willson Contreras and Ceddanne Rafaela each collecting three hits. Chris Bassitt took the loss after allowing three runs in three innings. Baltimore’s bats did manage nine hits including three from Taylor Ward but left 11 runners on base in total as their three-game winning streak was snapped.

 

Today’s matchup features a pair of struggling starters: Trevor Rogers (2–6, 6.84 ERA) for Baltimore and Brayan Bello (2–5, 5.63 ERA) for Boston. Both pitchers have allowed high hit totals—Rogers 58 hits in 48.2 innings and Bello 71 in 56 innings—setting the stage for another offense‑driven game assuming each holds true to their form to date this season.

 

A win for the Red Sox means two straight series wins for them. May not seem like much but it’s a potential building block for the struggling franchise. A Baltimore victory would give them the series and seven wins in their last ten games. Each side needs to begin to make a push if they want to truly get in the race for the division crown as the O’s sit 8.5 games behind the Rays and the Sox are 10.5 games back.

Lets dive into today’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

 

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

 

Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long.

 

Game Details and How to Watch: Orioles vs. Red Sox

 

  • Date: Thursday, June 4, 2026
  • Time: 1:35PM EST
  • Site: Fenway Park
  • City: Boston, MA
  • Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, MASN, NESN

 

Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out.

 

The Latest Odds: Orioles vs. Red Sox

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Baltimore Orioles (-102), Boston Red Sox (-118)
  • Spread: Orioles -1.5 (+150), Red Sox +1.5 (-182)
  • Total: 10.5 runs

 

Probable Starting Pitchers: Orioles vs. Red Sox for June 4

  • Orioles: Trevor Rogers
    Season Totals: 48.2 IP, 2-6, 6.84 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 38K, 18 BB
  • Red Sox: Brayan Bello
    Season Totals: 56.0 IP, 2-5, 5.63 ERA, 1.64 WHIP, 40K, 21 BB

Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Orioles vs. Red Sox

  • Gunnar Henderson – hits in 4 straight games (5-18)
  • Adley Rutschman – 3-8 this series
  • Leddy Tavares hits in 7 of his last 8 games (10-28)
  • Jarren Duran has hit in 10 straight games (15-46)
  • Ceddanne Rafaela is 13-41 over his last 9 games

Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!

 

Top Betting Trends & Insights: Orioles and Red Sox

  • The Orioles are 29-33 on the Run Line this season
  • The Red Sox are 25-35 on the Run Line this season
  • The OVER has cashed 35 times in Baltimore’s 62 games this season (35-25-2)
  • The OVER has cashed 28 times in Boston’s 60 games this season (28-30-2)

 

Expert picks & predictions: Orioles and Red Sox

 

Rotoworld Bet Best Bet

 

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

 

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

 

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between the Orioles and the Red Sox:

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Run Line.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Game Total OVER 10.5

 

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Joshua Jefferson could be an ideal fit for Sixers as an experienced connector

SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH - FEBRUARY 24: Joshua Jefferson #5 of the Iowa State Cyclones instructs his team during the second half of the game between Iowa State Cyclones and Utah Utes at Jon M. Huntsman Center on February 24, 2026 in Salt Lake City, Utah. (Photo by Bryan Byerly/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images) | ISI Photos via Getty Images

For the next month before the 2026 NBA Draft, we’ll take an in-depth look at different prospects here at Liberty Ballers and try to figure out which players would be the best fit for the Sixers at No. 22. Next up in this series is Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson.

After spending two years at St. Mary’s, Jefferson transferred to Iowa State. With the Cyclones, his college career truly took off. By his senior season in 2025-26, he was one of the best players in the country. He was named a consensus Second Team All-American and First Team All-Big 12. Unfortunately, Jefferson’s left ankle injury, suffered three minutes into the first round of the NCAA Tournament, cost Iowa State, which ranked as high as No. 2 in the country, a chance to make much noise during March Madness.

Profile

2025-26 Stats: 35 games, 30.9 minutes, 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.8 blocks, 47.1% FG, 34.5% 3P, 70.0% FT

Team: Iowa State

Year: Senior

Position: PF/SF

Height & Weight: 6’7.75” | 246.2 lbs

Born: November 21, 2003 (22 years old)

Hometown: Las Vegas, Nevada

Strengths

The biggest strengths for Jefferson are his basketball IQ, versatility and physicality. All of those traits manifest in different ways.

Spending most of his time at the four, Jefferson operated like a point forward for the Cyclones. In the half-court, he was featured as a playmaking hub at the elbows. He was excellent in the pick-and-roll and in DHOs, creating opportunities for others or getting downhill and finishing with strength and nice touch around the rim. He also got to the free throw line plenty (6.1 attempts per game as a senior). He frequently started the break, grabbing the ball off the rim and pushing it for transition opportunities. For a player at his size, Jefferson is a smart and accurate passer, finding cutters and shooters for easy baskets.

Jefferson is a strong rebounder overall, especially on the offensive glass, where he averaged nearly two a game. His off-ball defense was great for the Cyclones as he averaged 1.9 steals a game over the last two seasons and generally wreaked havoc. While he isn’t the greatest rim protector, he does well to wall drivers off and challenge without fouling. Jefferson’s best assets on the defensive end are his NBA-ready frame and IQ. The frame and physicality are likely genetic — his father, Ben, was an offensive lineman in the NFL, as was his oldest brother. His middle brother played defensive line at the D-1 level.

Jefferson is a Swiss Army Knife-type player. He can do a little bit of everything, even progressing as a three-point shooter in his four college seasons. While he might not have star potential, he has the traits of an excellent connective piece at the next level.

Weaknesses

The reasons Jefferson is a fringe first-rounder are his age, inconsistency with his shot and lack of high-end athleticism.

Jefferson will be 23 in November, making him an older rookie. While the experience clearly helped him improve his game, he didn’t truly dominate until his senior season. The question for NBA evaluators will be whether Jefferson is on a track to continue improving or has already plateaued.

While shooting 34.5% on 3.1 attempts per game is solid for a player with Jefferson’s varied skillset, it’s fair to wonder if he can carry that over to the NBA level. He shot below 30% from beyond the arc in his previous three seasons combined. The improvement on higher volume is encouraging and he’s a solid free throw shooter (72.2% for his career) with good touch inside the arc, but shooting could be a swing skill — as it is for so many forwards.

The athletic testing portion of the combine did Jefferson no favors. He tested poorly in just about every athletic metric. Not historically bad like Johni Broome, but not great. The film shows a player who looks functionally athletic against some high-level competition, but he’s not the fleetest of foot and it’s hard to know until you see him against NBA athletes.

Positional Fit

The theoretical best version of Jefferson is a dream fit for the Sixers.

You could slot him in at the four right between Joel Embiid and Paul George. He could be an excellent connector for the starting group and occasionally take on a bigger offensive role when the stars are inevitably out. Rebounding and passing are two of the Sixers’ biggest needs and Jefferson checks both boxes. His ability to create turnovers and get loose balls would endear him quickly to Nick Nurse. Again though, the shooting will need to continue to improve.

He also fits both timelines. He could potentially be a rotation player now, while making himself into a key cog next to Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe for the future. It’s not hard to envision Jefferson pulling the ball off the rim and finding Edgecombe for easy transition lobs. Again, Jefferson likely doesn’t have star upside, but finding good, smart, versatile, rotational-level players is also important.

Draft Projection

SB Nation mock draft: No. 24, New York Knicks

With so many players deciding to go back to school and cash in on NIL money, a deep draft has thinned out quite a bit. Many of the more popular names we’ve seen linked to the Sixers could come off the board before we even reach the 20s. Depending on how it shakes out, selecting Jefferson at 22 might not be a reach.

Watching him go to the Knicks might suck.

Ladder Bettor Wins $235K as Knicks Beat Spurs in NBA Finals Game 1

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BetMGM’s well-known ladder bettor won nearly a quarter of a million dollars by backing the New York Knicks over the San Antonio Spurs in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The anonymous user, who is believed to have profited approximately $2 million during the NBA Playoffs, cashed a range of bets from Knicks +8.5 to Knicks +4.5.

Key Takeaways

  • The bettor added $85.8K to their growing profit from betting on the NBA Playoffs.

  • BetMGM revealed bettor won about $1.2 million by backing the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

  • This is the first time all season the Knicks are favored to win the Finals.

BetMGM News posted on X shortly before tip-off that the sportsbook had accepted $150,000 worth of tickets, the largest of which was an $80,000 wager on the Knicks at +8.5 (-210).

A few hours later, and after the Knicks upset the Spurs on the road, 105-95, all of the bets were graded as winners. BetMGM paid the user $235,787.55, or $85,787.55 in profit. The largest individual win was $118,095.24 for the $80,000 stake on the Knicks +8.5 at -210 odds. 

The bettor behind these, and other ladder wagers, remains unknown. However, the consistency and uniqueness of their approach make it appear as if the same individual was behind a series of related bets throughout the playoffs.

The user made nearly $1.2 million by backing the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals alone. That included $466,718 in profit from $775,000 in wagers during the Knicks’ historic Game 1 comeback, which saw them recover from a 22-point fourth-quarter deficit to win in overtime.

That said, the $150,000 in total wagers was on the smaller end of the bettor’s bankroll. They never risked less than $300,000 in the Eastern Conference Finals and had six figures of ladder bets in other series, including the Western Conference Finals and the conference semifinals on both sides of the bracket.

Spurs still favored in Game 2

The Spurs were a consensus 4.5-point Game 1 favorite before Wednesday’s tip-off. They were also BetMGM’s series favorites at -190, giving them just below a two-thirds implied chance to win the championship.

After just one game, the Knicks are now the team in the driver’s seat. They shortened to -140 in NBA Finals odds (58.3% chance), while the Spurs are now +120.

The odds flip put the Knicks in pole position to win the Finals for the first time all season. They opened the season at +700 title odds, but were only +2200 by the time they entered the playoffs. 

The Spurs garnered more national respect in recent weeks, although they would still make history with a series win. Their +2500 preseason odds to win the championship would be the second-longest in SportsOddsHistory’sdatabase, which extends back to the 1984-85 season, only behind the 2014-15 Golden State Warriors. 

Despite the Game 1 loss, oddsmakers are firmly predicting a Spurs bounce-back in Game 2. Odds for Friday’s rematch have the Spurs at a 5.5-point advantage, meaning they’re even larger favorites than they were in the series opener. They also have -235 moneyline odds (70.2% chance) to the Knicks’ +195 (33.9% chance).

Finals MVP odds and outlook

While the Knicks haven’t won an NBA championship since 1973, they are doing everything they can to rewrite history. Their ongoing 12-game winning streak is tied with the 1999 Spurs, who beat the eighth-seed Knicks in the Finals, 4-1. The record 15-game winning streak belongs to the Golden State Warriors. 

Jalen Brunson and Victor Wembanyama are in a bit of a two-horse race in NBA Finals MVP odds, with both receiving odds just above one-to-one. Karl-Anthony Towns is the only other player in close contention.

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

NBA investigating fans who targeted Jalen Brunson in Game 1, per report

The NBA will investigate the behavior of fans who sat courtside at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio and allegedly directed profanity towards New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson during Game 1 of the NBA Finals, reports Chris Haynes of NBA on Prime and NBATV.

According to the report, the remarks concerned Brunson "flopping," and Brunson, who scored 30 points in the 105-95 win, met with official Scott Foster after the game to discuss the fans' remarks.

The NBA Code of Conduct clearly states the behavior they expect fans to adhere to when attending a game.

"Guests will enjoy the basketball experience free from and without engaging in disruptive behavior, including foul or abusive language, betting-related or other harassment directed towards players or other game participants, and obscene gestures," part of the code reads.

The penalties for fan misbehavior at NBA games are severe; the Code of Conduct states that anyone who violates it could face "ejection without refund, revocation of their season tickets, and/or prevention from attending future games. They may also be in violation of local ordinances, resulting in possible arrest and prosecution."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NBA investigates fans who targeted Knicks' Jalen Brunson during game

Sturm finishes eighth in Jack Adams voting

Boston, MA - May 1: Boston Bruins head coach Marco Sturm and Buffalo Sabres head coach Lindy Ruff shake hands following the game. The Boston Bruins and Buffalo Sabres played in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs at TD Garden on May 1, 2026. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) | Boston Globe via Getty Images

With the Stanley Cup Final rolling on, the NHL is beginning to announce the winners of its season-long awards.

We already heard about Matthew Schaefer winning the Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year, while Zach Werenski won the Norris Trophy as the league’s best defenseman.

Yesterday, the league announce the winner of the Jack Adams Award, given to the coach “adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success,” and it was a bit of a surprise: Jon Cooper of the Tampa Bay Lightning took home the top spot.

Locally, the news is that Bruins head coach Marco Sturm finished eighth in Jack Adams voting in his first full season behind an NHL bench, which is no small feat.

Per the NHL, the top ten coaches in this year’s voting were:

  1. Cooper
  2. Lindy Ruff
  3. Dan Muse
  4. Jared Bednar
  5. Martin St. Louis
  6. Travis Green
  7. Rick Tocchet
  8. Sturm
  9. Rod Brind’Amour
  10. Glen Gulutzan

(View the full voting breakdown on NHL.com.)

After a basement finish the year before, Sturm led the Bruins back to the playoffs via a 100-point season and generally had the team performing far above statistical projections/expectations.

Sturm was a longshot to actually win the award, but finishing eighth is a testament to the job Sturm and his staff did in Year 1.

Interestingly enough, of the top eight vote-getters for the award, five are in the Atlantic Division: Cooper (TBL), Ruff (BUF), St. Louis (MTL), Green (OTT), and Sturm.

The main talking point after the announcement was how Ruff should have been the winner, and it’s hard to argue against that.

Many Tampa people point to Cooper’s strong work navigating some injury challenges in Tampa, which is valid, but I’m not sure how that overshadows what Ruff achieved.

In fact, you could make pretty convincing arguments over Cooper for every other Atlantic coach featured, plus throw some weight behind Muse in Pittsburgh (though he still had plenty of superstars) and Tocchet in Philadelphia.

It’s worth noting that voting for these awards was conducted prior to the playoffs, so it’s really only factoring in regular season success.

Members of the NHL Broadcasters’ Association cast the Adams votes.

Anyways, it’ll be fun to argue about this for a few days!

Next up for the Bruins will be the Vezina Trophy, where Jeremy Swayman is a finalist alongside Ilya Sorokin and Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Caleb Wilson makes case that he should be picked #1 in the NBA Draft

Feb 7, 2026; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; Duke Blue Devils guard Isaiah Evans (3) shoots as North Carolina Tar Heels forward Caleb Wilson (8) defends in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Caleb Wilson has been a busy guy over the last month, to say the least. One recent stop that he made was to NBA Today, where he was asked about the NBA Draft, and whether or not he felt like he should be drafted #1 overall.

Here is what the now former Tar Heel had to say:

”I definitely do. I played against everybody else, and I won. And I played better. It’s just that simple for me. … You can check the film, you can check the tape.”

Hard to argue against that.

Whether you believe Wilson has what it takes to jump over AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, and Cameron Boozer in the draft, there is no doubt that Wilson may be the most interesting player of the group as far as his ceiling goes. As he stated, he did beat Peterson and Wilson during the regular season, and he at least outplayed Dybantsa during the exhibition against BYU. By no means does any of this mean he is destined to be the better NBA player, but it is at least something that NBA teams should make note of.

As of right now, most outlets still have Wilson going fourth overall to the Chicago Bulls, but a couple of outlets think that teams are starting to consider Wilson as a top 2-3 pick. CBS Sports has Wilson getting drafted second overall by the Utah Jazz in their latest mock draft, which would be an interesting move to say the least. The last thing that the Jazz need is another big, but perhaps Wilson’s upside would be enough to not resign Walker Kessler.

We are just a couple of weeks away from finding out who will ultimately draft Caleb Wilson, but now we want to hear from you. Do you agree with Wilson? Do you think he could/should go #1 overall? Let us know in the comments below.

The Washington Nationals Cannot Hit In Day Games Again

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 03: CJ Abrams #5 of the Washington Nationals bats in the seventh inning during the game between the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on Wednesday, June 3, 2026 in Washington, District of Columbia. (Photo by Alyssa McDaniel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images

Among the many problems that plagued the 2025 Washington Nationals, one of the most prominent and frustrating was their often sloppy performances in day games, especially those right before travel days. Last season, the Nats had a team wRC+ of 102 in night games, good for 12th best in baseball, with a 7.4% walk rate and 21% strikeout rate to go with it. In day games, their wRC+ dropped to 81, third worst in all of baseball, with a 3% rise in strikeout rate in the day as compared to the night.

The 2026 Nationals have begun to get right a lot of things that the 2025 Nationals got wrong, but so far, their struggles in the day are not one of them. At night, the Nats have the best offense in baseball, with their team wRC+ of 122 leading the league, with a strong 9.9% walk rate and 21.6% strikeout rate to go along with it. In the daytime, however, their team wRC+ of 89 is 6th worst in baseball, and actually a much larger discrepancy in performance than the 2025 club in the day vs the night.

So what are the Nats hitters doing at night that they’re not in the day? There doesn’t seem to be one answer, but rather a culmination of different factors. They’re striking out about the same in the day versus the night, but walking 1.5% less, perhaps having to do with the shadows that can make hitting difficult during the day.

They are also running a .270 batting average on balls in play during the day, as compared to .299 at night, so perhaps there is some bad luck at play as well, but a lower BABIP could also mean less hard hit balls, and this tracks with the Nats .374 slugging percentage during the day, bottom 10 in baseball, as compared to .448 at night, 2nd best in baseball.

The Nationals have taken more plate appearances during the day than any club in baseball in 2026 at 1161, and similar to 2025, the results have not been pretty. Day games are usually a sign of a team having to fly out of town that evening or the following morning, so perhaps there is a mental component at play when a young team is already thinking about the series and trip ahead of them.

Spencer Nusbaum claiming he has been told there isn’t much credibility to the Nats’ daytime struggles seems to indicate the coaching staff or front office does not believe this is a long-term issue to worry about, but entering year 2 of this now, it would be nice for the Nats to not look like a team ready to bounce town when they take the field in the daytime.

2026 Cubs Heroes and Goats: Pete Crow-Armstrong is the Superhero vs. the A’s

Boy, I wish that one wasn’t so eminently foreseeable. The Cubs have basically had no games this year where a starter had a small lead when he left and then the bullpen just passed the torch through the end of the game. That’s usually a pretty standard “shape” for a game. You might blow one occasionally. You might pile on in the late stages sometimes. But in the era of short starts and max effort bullpen work, this is a typical strategy. And yet, it hadn’t really surfaced much. When it did, one of those alternate scenarios basically always occurred.

The side result of that is that there are no real defined roles in the Cubs bullpen. Daniel Palencia was anointed the closer in 2025 and certainly hadn’t done anything other than getting hurt to lose that role. He’s healthy now. Between his 2025 results and his work for his home country in the WBC, his profile has only elevated. So he’s rightly the ninth-inning guy. But how would it line up leading to that? Well, Caleb Thielbar was the first one up after Palencia got hurt. So I guess Craig Counsell feels he’s that number two guy down there.

I’ve won no manager of the year awards nor managed any playoff games. But for my money, Jacob Webb is the number two guy and I would have wanted him for the top part of the A’s order. That would have had Thielbar face the seventh inning. There were two lefties and two righties facing Webb in the seventh. We can expect that the A’s would likely have used Colby Thomas, who homered in a pinch hitting role off of Thielbar in the seventh. So he’d very likely have faced three righties, assuming a four-batter inning (like Webb had). Webb would then have likely faced two lefties and two righties in the eighth.

Back seat driving is fun. I get the benefit of hindsight. Craig’s plan failed. So the bar for my plan is pretty low. Theilbar has been excellent as a Cub and it isn’t a given that your foe will pinch hit for their leadoff hitter. Of course they did. Of course it worked. That is the way everything is going. Seemingly every bounce is going the wrong way lately. If you believe in luck or curses or any of that stuff, then you have to think the Cubs have done something to righteously anger the baseball gods or something. Two 10-game winning streaks that close together broke some bond with reality or something.

There is so much baseball left to be played, but this season is increasingly feeling to me like 2021. Like this Cub team has a lot of players who were good in some past year or perhaps might be good in some future year. But too many of them are not good this year. None of that is cast in stone or immutable. But, I’m just saying all of your engineers have gone below deck and are trying to figure out how to stop the ship from continuing to take on water before the ship sinks in its entirety.

As fun as so much of last year was, this one is becoming torturous to follow. There is a lot of baseball to play is only a comforting thing to say when you expect the baseball to be played in the future to be a good thing. If this June was a test for this team, they’ve gotten the first few questions wrong on the test. I thought they needed to take advantage of this month and win 18 of 27 games. That’s a daunting challenge under any ordinary circumstances. Losing the first two only moved that goal further and further out of reach.

Not great.

Three Positives:

  • Ian Happ had a pair of doubles and a run scored. He was the only Cub with multiple hits.
  • Hoby Milner faced two batters and struck out one to finish the sixth and preserve a two run Cubs lead.
  • Seiya Suzuki hit a long homer to start the mini comeback after the Cubs fell behind 2-0.

Game 62, June 3: A’s 5, Cubs 4 (32-30)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

  • Superhero: Daniel Palencia (.134). IP, K
  • Hero: Colin Rea (.080). 5.1 IP, 21 BF, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 ER, 3 K
  • Sidekick: Ian Happ (.075). 2-4, 2 2B, R

THREE GOATS:

  • Billy Goat: Caleb Thielbar (-.290). .2 IP, 4 BF, 3 H, 2 ER
  • Goat: Pedro Ramirez (-.131). 0-4
  • Kid: Alex Bregman (-.130). 1-4

WPA Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s strikeout with a runner on third and one out in the tenth, the Cubs down one. (-.249)

Cubs Play of the Game: Pete Crow-Armstrong’s two-run homer with one out in the third gave the Cubs the lead. (.200)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 61 Winner: Jameson Taillon received 75 of 145 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

  • Michael Busch +21
  • Nico Hoerner +13
  • Ian Happ +10.5
  • Michael Conforto +10
  • Ben Brown +9.5
  • Ryan Rolison/Phil Maton/Jameson Taillon -8
  • Matt Shaw -10
  • Dansby Swanson -13
  • Seiya Suzuki -30.5

Up Next: Shota Imanaga (4-6, 4.37) versus J.T. Ginn (3-3, 2.87). Surely just for fun, the wind will be howling out to left. There were times when the Cubs had really dominant records against righties and at home. But all of that is gone with this downturn.

Win a game. Stop the skid before you face the two worst records in the NL over the next two weeks.

MLB Player Props & Best Bets for Today, June 4

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Thursday has arrived, which means one of two things: the weekend starts today if we put together a banger of a card, or tomorrow is Friday. Either way, we're winning.

This evening, I have a mix of familiar faces and a few newcomers ready to help us kick off the weekend a little early. Let's cash some tickets and get a head start on the fun.

Read on for our MLB player props and MLB picks for Thursday, June 4. 

Best MLB player props today

Player PickOdds
Astros Yordan AlvarezOver 1.5 Total Bases+103
Dodgers Freddie FreemanOver 1.5 Total Bases+101
Diamondbacks Ryne NelsonOver 5.5 Hits Allowed-133

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+103)

I have to be on Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez today. Sure, you see me write about him daily, and you're probably wishing I'd back someone new, BUT I will never shy away from a mouthwatering matchup.

This evening, the big fella draws Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Jared Jones, who made his first start in nearly two years last week and was completely shelled, allowing five runs on seven hits, including two home runs, across 4.1 innings against the Minnesota Twins. Try comparing Byron Buxton to Alvarez, you can't.

The Astros slugger not only owns the second-highest rating on Batters-Box tonight, but he also has 100% arsenal coverage against Jones' entire pitch mix. On top of that, Alvarez has posted a .504 wOBA and a 35.71% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

The sample size on the Pirates starter is far too small to draw many meaningful conclusions, but taking on the scariest bat in baseball while he's this hot feels like a tall task for the young righty. I expect fireworks tonight, or Alvarez gets pitched around and walked a ton. I'm betting on the fireworks.

  • Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: FS1

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+101)

Nothing like sprinkling on a guy to do a little bit of everything, and that’s exactly what I’m doing with Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman this evening. I fully advocate for his 2+ total bases prop at plus money, but I’m also dabbling in his double and home run props as well.

Despite drawing only a Strong rating in Batters-Box’s default model, Freeman carries an elite rating in the current season timeframe. In 130 Strong-rated spots over the last three years, the Dodgers slugger has cleared this prop 52.31% of the time.

In 56 Strong-rated road spots, that number climbs to 55.36%, while he’s gone yard in 25% of those games.

On top of that, Freeman owns 100% arsenal coverage this evening against Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson. Nelson carries the worst pitcher rating in both timeframes, posting poor marks in matchup ISO, hard-contact rate, strikeout percentage, and ground-ball rate.

Against left-handed hitters this season, he has had his hands full, allowing a 70.2% elevation rate (fly balls + line drives), a 10.5% barrel rate, and a 5.16 xFIP.

With Freeman seeing the ball extremely well lately, I think grabbing this prop at plus money is the play. Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, he owns a .487 wOBA and 220 wRC+ while making hard contact 50% of the time.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ARID, SNLA

Ryne Nelson Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-133)

Sticking with this matchup, the Dodgers have five elite-rated bats in the current season ratings on Batters-Box. Because of that, I think backing the entire offense and fading Ryne Nelson is the move.

Nelson's hits allowed prop is set at 5.5, with the over priced at -133.

In 37 poorly rated matchups, Nelson has allowed 5+ hits 51.35% of the time. In a smaller sample of 16 poorly rated home matchups, he has allowed 5+ hits in 50% of starts, 6+ hits in 37.5%, and 7+ hits in 31.25%.

The Dodgers are seeing the ball extremely well this season. Over their last 12 games, they rank first in wRC+, wOBA, OPS, and ISO. They also sit inside the top six in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and fly-ball rate.

Even with Shohei Ohtani getting the day off, we're simply asking the rest of the Monstars of LA to step up, and I don't think that's asking much.

So, if you're looking for an alternative prop rather than throwing a dart at one of the Dodgers' sluggers to boom at the dish, this is a great way to attack the matchup.

  • Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
  • Where to watch: ARID, SNLA
Colby Marchio's 2026 Transparency Record
  • Prop picks: 184-319-29, +5.00 units

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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