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The Oklahoma City Thunder aim to push their winning streak to nine when they tip off against the Orlando Magic at Kia Center tonight.

All eyes will be on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and deservedly so, but I’ve got my eye on a Chet Holmgren prop in my Thunder vs. Magic predictions & NBA picks for Tuesday, March 17.

Thunder vs Magic prediction

Thunder vs Magic best bet: Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds (-112)

The Oklahoma City Thunder are undefeated since returning from the All-Star break, in large part thanks to the work of Chet Holmgren.

The OKC center has averaged 10.9 boards per game since the break – eighth-most in the NBA.

Holmgren has collected Over 8.5 rebounds in seven of his last eight outings, so we’re getting good value tonight.

The Orlando Magic are a middle-of-the-pack rebounding team, ranking 15th in boards per game (43.8), and starting center Wendell Carter Jr. is no match for the 7-foot-1 Holmgren.

Thunder vs Magic same-game parlay

Holmgren hasn’t just been a monster on the glass; he’s also scored Over 16.5 points in three of his last five games while averaging 18.8 ppg through that span.

The Thunder are also 5-0 in their last five games vs. the Magic and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Thunder vs Magic SGP

• Chet Holmgren Over 8.5 rebounds
• Chet Holmgren Over 16.5 points
• Thunder moneyline

Our "from downtown" SGP: All hands on deck for Magic

The Thunder may be on a nine-game run, but they’ve only covered the spread once in their last eight contests. The Magic, meanwhile, are 4-2 ATS in their last six.

It’ll take a full team effort to keep this one close, but Paolo Banchero (25.6 ppg), Desmond Bane (22.8 ppg), Tristan da Silva (15.3 ppg), and Jett Howard (8.8 ppg) are each scoring well above their season average this month.

Thunder vs Magic SGP

• Magic +9.5
• Paolo Banchero Over 20.5 points
• Desmond Bane Over 18.5 points
• Tristan da Silva Over 11.5 points
• Jett Howard Over 5.5 points

Thunder vs Magic odds

• Spread: Oklahoma City 9.5 (-110) | Orlando +9.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Oklahoma City -450 | Orlando +350
• Over/Under: Over 223 (-110) | Under 223 (-110)

Thunder vs Magic betting trend to know

The Thunder have hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 21 away games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Magic.

How to watch Thunder vs Magic

Thunder vs Magic latest injuries

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Need help filling out your March Madness bracket?

We had 10 members of the USA TODAY Sports staff fill out brackets using our Bracket Challenge game, presented by AutoZone.

Here's a look at some of the takeaways from their predictions, including most popular upset and most likely Final Four teams.

March Madness printable bracket: Fill out your picks for NCAA Tournament pools

March Madness Cinderella predictions: VCU, Akron top NCAA Tournament upset picks

Ok so let me walk you through how this night went for me and see if it tracks similarly for you.

I turn on my TV at 7:00 because I forgot it was a road game.

False start. That’s OK. We can recover from this. We’ll be fine.

The game starts when? 9:00? P.M.? That can’t be right. Wow. Pacific Standard Time, eh? We’re still doing that? I thought we voted to end PST just like we did Daylight Saving Time. Wait, we’re still doing that? I swear, this country has to get its act together.

Alright. 9:00. Here we go.

Spurs–Clippers. Last time we played it was one of the highlights of the season and I can’t wait to see what kind of fireworks we have in store tonight. Should be electric.

Kawhi’s out, eh? Shocking. Dylan’s still out? Bummer. And Kornet? Bummer. Well. Alright. Still might be fun.

Oh shoot, the game started already.

Let’s see. Peacock. Peacock. Where is Peacock?

No, I don’t want to watch Ted. Or Hamnet. Or Love Island All-Stars (it always gets boring near the end anyway).

Ok. Spurs–Clippers. Here we go.

WE’RE DOWN HOW MUCH?

I don’t need to watch this. This is… this is a throwaway game. We’re missing guys. They’re missing guys. It’s Monday night. It’s late. I’m just going to call it a night and see what happened in the morning.

Ok, nice dunk though Devin. I see you. I’m still going to bed though.

Alright, well. De’Aaron, that was nice. Steph, that was very nice.

Maybe…

Yeah, maybe we see how this plays out.

The funny thing is, the Spurs had already started climbing back into the game while I was busy trying to convince myself to go to bed. And that’s kind of become their thing this year. Games get weird, momentum swings around, and they just calmly work their way back into it.

Stephon Castle was flying around for offensive rebounds and putbacks, and before long the Clippers’ 17–3 start had quietly started to fade. Wemby started controlling things defensively and almost effortlessly asserting himself on offense. Devin Vassell found space and knocked down a couple shots. Fox started getting downhill and bending the defense the way he does. The Spurs started getting stops, the pace flipped, and suddenly the whole thing felt different. By the time Jordan McLaughlin hit a three to tie it early in the second quarter, the entire game had reset.

And honestly, that kind of swing doesn’t even feel unusual anymore.

One thing that’s really stood out to me this year is that across the NBA, no lead feels particularly safe. It doesn’t matter who you are or who you’re playing. Twenty point leads happen all the time, and twenty point comebacks seem to happen just as often.

I don’t know if it’s because scoring is completely off the rails or because defense is now more of a suggestion than a requirement. Maybe the rules are too soft. Or too hard? Look, I honestly don’t know.

What I do know is that a quick 10-point lead doesn’t even register with me anymore when the Spurs have it. That’s nothing. That can disappear during a bathroom break.

For some reason that logic never applies when the Spurs are down, though. That still feels catastrophic. Just one of life’s little mysteries, I guess.

I’m fine. I’m actually the normal amount of anxious for a guy my age. Why do you ask?

The Spurs handled their business in this game. Even when it felt like they weren’t going to. Even when things got a little wobbly down the stretch and it briefly seemed like Darius Garland might have invented a floater that could somehow arc just high enough to evade Wemby’s outstretched arms enough times to pull the Clippers back into it.

But the Spurs were good. They were solid. They got the job done.

I don’t know if I give them enough credit for being professional like that. We talk all the time about their youth and inexperience, as if it’s a defining trait that’s inseparable from who they are. But for all that talk, they don’t really play like it.

They have their ups and downs. Stretches where things aren’t working the way they should. That part can absolutely be chalked up to youth and inexperience.

The key part, though, is what happens next.

They don’t spin out. They don’t let the rough stretch become the whole story. They just attack it like a problem that needs to be solved. A puzzle to figure out.

There’s a steely resolve when they hit a roadblock instead of panic.

I have no idea how or if this will play out in the playoffs. Every single person even tangentially associated with having an opinion on basketball is so quick to fall over themselves and breathlessly explain to you how “the playoffs are a completely different animal.” The intensity is different. The stakes are higher. The lights are brighter. All that jazz. I’m as guilty of doing this as anyone!

The truth is that I don’t know. Frankly, I don’t remember. It’s been a long time since the Spurs were in the playoffs and an even longer time since they were in there with a team full of guys who hadn’t been there before. I don’t know how any of this works anymore. I don’t know what any of these guys are capable of.

I know it will be different, and I know that they know it. They’re getting it from all sides just like we are. It’s not the last test they have to pass, but it certainly is the next one.

“They don’t have enough experience though”. That’s the story on this team. That’s the line you hear over and over again. The playoffs are different. The intensity is different. The stakes are higher. The lights are brighter. Remember?

But when I think about what this team has spent the entire season doing, I’m not sure the word “experience” means quite what people think it does. Because every night it feels like they’re running into something new. A weird game. A bad stretch. A matchup problem. A moment where things stop working the way they’re supposed to.

And every night they treat it the same way.

They slow down. They look at it. They start figuring it out.

They treat it like a puzzle.

The playoffs are a completely different test. It will expose things this team hasn’t seen yet.

But if experience is really just learning how to solve the problems in front of you, then this team has been getting plenty of it all year.

And so far, when these Spurs run into a problem, they don’t panic.

They solve it.

Takeaways

• 50 wins feels pretty good. What was our over/under for wins? like, 43? 50 is pretty good! I find this acceptable!
• I feel like I could come in here after every single game and just make the whole thing about how much I enjoy watching Stephon Castle play basketball. I love the way he moves. He sort of lopes down the court with this really tall posture, like he’s almost teetering forward when he runs, and it creates this constant feeling that something unexpected might happen. He’s explosive, but not in the same way De’Aaron Fox is explosive. Fox is lightning fast. Castle is more like… sudden. Once he decides to go, everything just starts happening quickly. I realize I’m kind of spinning out trying to explain this, but he’s just an aesthetically pleasing basketball player to watch. The movements are fun. The chaos feels intentional. I saw someone on Twitter say he’s a consistent three point shot away from being Dwyane Wade and I nearly passed out.

• It was nice to see the Spurs figure out a way to win without shooting particularly well from three. Obviously I’d prefer them to shoot well from three, but come playoff time that’s the kind of thing that tends to wax and wane a little. So: how to succeed in business without hitting many threes. Step one is you’ve got to grab somewhere in the vicinity of a million rebounds. Absolutely pound the boards. The Spurs did that. They were aggressive, especially on the offensive glass, and it never really felt like they were wasting possessions even when the shots weren’t falling. Step two is you put the clamps on defensively. (This is admittedly a little easier when Kawhi isn’t playing, but still. Odds are pretty decent that on any given night Kawhi won’t be playing.) If you can’t score, then they sure as hell better not be scoring either. Basketball is actually pretty simple when you think about it. As always, my door is open for any NBA consultancy opportunities.
• Hi! This is Charlie’s anxiety talking now. For some reason the Clippers feel kind of spooky to me as a playoff matchup and I would simply prefer that we not do that. I know we’ve won these two games against them, but they play us really hard. They’re well coached, they’re disciplined, and they just seem to do a lot of things well. I don’t know. I don’t like the Kawhi storyline being something we have to hear about constantly. I would prefer to simply not experience that. That said, I could probably talk myself into every single possible matchup feeling spooky if you gave me enough time, so please feel free to disregard Charlie’s anxiety. Please feel free to disregard Charlie altogether, he really is just kinda making this up as he goes along.

WWL Post Game Press Conference

– Ok, so it seemed like you were about to do one of those old school running diaries here and then just bailed halfway through. Can you walk us through that decision?

– Yeah, sure. I mean, sometimes you sit down to write and you know your angle. You watched the game, it all made sense, you were in the flow and felt it coming together, and the only step left is pen to paper. Other times… nothing.

– And this was one of the nothing times?

– Yeah, for sure. The game ended so late last night and I really felt like I’d just find it in the morning. Then, sure enough, I sat down in front of a blank WordPress doc and it was crickets.

– So the running diary bit was maybe a way in?

– Yeah. There are a couple tricks like that in the arsenal that are really just a ploy to start writing. Get anything on the page. It’s stupid, but sometimes literally typing out what happened in the game can kickstart something. I don’t know. The biggest enemy of writing is not writing, so sometimes the only answer is to write.

– Of course. So then it seems like you eventually found what you wanted to talk about, but you kept part of the diary bit. I’m not sure I understand that.

– Well, see, I kept it because I had already written it and didn’t want to erase it.

– Sure.

– I thought it was good! I always enjoy poking at Peacock as a streaming service. I thought the thing about dropping into the game down 17–3 was funny. The daylight savings bit?? That’s good stuff! And I really did forget that the game didn’t start until 9. Jokes aside, if I didn’t have to write about it I absolutely would’ve bailed. I don’t know, it felt like a pretty accurate portrayal of the watching experience and I wanted to keep it.

Makes sense. But you didn’t feel like doing it for the whole game?

– I think if you’re going to go full Bill Simmons and run back a Game Watchalong Diary, you have to commit from the beginning. If you want to do it well, you have to go into the game taking notes, workshopping jokes, feeling it in the moment. It’s really hard to fake that. People can tell.

– I’m glad you’ve got some integrity about it.

– I have nothing if not that.

The Celtics and the Suns met last night, and beyond the game itself, it was a good snapshot of how both teams have evolved over the past year. Not long ago, neither team was particularly effective on the offensive glass. Boston finished 18th in offensive rebound rate last season, Phoenix 26th. This year, both are among the best in the league, ranking 5th and 6th respectively, which says a lot about how intentional that shift has been.

That evolution didn’t happen in a vacuum. Both teams went through an eventful summer and lost a significant part of their offensive creation, forcing them to find other ways to generate an edge. Instead of relying purely on shot-making, they leaned into the possession battle — creating extra chances through offensive rebounds and limiting wasted possessions.

When talking with Suns assistant Jordan Ott before the game, what stood out was how differently both teams approach that same objective. The common ground is obvious with offensive rebounding, but the real gap shows up in turnover management. Phoenix has completely changed its defensive profile, going from one of the worst teams in the league at forcing turnovers last season (28th in opponent turnover rate) to one of the best this year (3rd). Boston hasn’t followed that same path and still ranks in the lower third in that category, around 22nd.

However, the Celtics compensate for that on the other end. They are one of the best teams in the league at taking care of the ball, with a turnover rate around 12.5%, second overall, while the Suns are significantly higher at about 14.5%. As Ott explained, that difference has a direct impact on how the Celtics defend. Because they rarely give the ball away, they force opponents to operate more in the half court, naturally reducing transition opportunities and giving Boston a more stable defensive base.

That contrast was visible throughout the game. The Suns leaned heavily into pressure, trying to disrupt ball-handlers and speed up decisions, while also making a clear effort to control the glass after being exposed in that area in the previous matchup in Phoenix. Their approach was aggressive and physical, designed to create the extra possessions they rely on.

Boston answered in a different way. The Celtics didn’t try to match that chaos but instead leaned into their structure, spacing the floor properly and moving the ball to break the pressure. Jaylen Brown was at the center of that, repeatedly attacking downhill with space and finishing with 41 points and 21 free throw attempts. Around him, the ball kept moving, forcing the defense to shift and eventually opening up clean advantages.

That approach translated directly into production, with Boston posting a 79.5% assist rate, their highest of the season. It was less about forcing the issue and more about letting the offense breathe until the right option appeared.

In the end, both teams are chasing the same goal — winning the possession battle — but through very different levers. Phoenix looks to create chaos and generate turnovers, while Boston prioritizes control and limits mistakes. Last night didn’t show who executed better but highlighted two distinct ways of building an edge when pure talent alone isn’t enough.

The Detroit Pistons will square off with the Washington Wizards in back-to-back games. Detroit looks to improve its road record as Washington hosts the matchups.

Detroit remains the one seed in the Eastern Conference after an uneven last 10 games. They are 3.5 games over on the Boston Celtics, who are getting healthier.

With 15 games remaining in the regular season, Detroit controls its own path to the top seed and homecourt advantage throughout the East side of the bracket. Take care of the Wizards to keep the separation.

Game Vitals

Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.

When: 7:00 PM

Watch: Fan Duel Sports Network Detroit

Odds: Pistons (-17.5)

Analysis

Homecourt should be something the Pistons strive to keep. They are a young, energetic, chaotic group that thrives on punishing opponents. Detroit isn’t a high-powered offensive group with loads of playoff experience.

When you are behind the eight-ball offensively and a lesser-experienced group, leaning on your fans in the postseason is a needed advantage. Homecourt advantage doesn’t guarantee playoff success, but it’s not easy for opponents to play in front of a ruckus Detroit crowd.

With the 22nd hardest schedule remaining, Detroit has a clear path to stay No. 1. The Celtics have the eighth hardest schedule and ground to make up to catch Detroit. In reality, you still have to play and win the games no matter who’s on the schedule.

Detroit might have gotten a look at the Wizards with Trae Young, but he exited last night’s game with a right quad contusion. One would think Young could bring some offensive juice to the Wizards when they are trying to compete.

Washington will be without Kyshawn George and Anthony Davis. Those two will be integral pieces for them moving forward. Alex Sarr may be their most intriguing piece, but he hasn’t played 25 minutes in a game since early February. It’s hard to gauge how much he’ll play on a nightly basis due to Washington having its eyes set on the draft.

Detroit isn’t fully whole with Isaiah Stewart out with a calf strain. Ausar Thompson being back in the lineup is major, but losing Stew is a huge loss. They’ll need him healthy and sharp for the postseason.

Games against the Grizzlies, Nets, and now Wizards are opportunities for the others to get going. It’s common knowledge how teams will defend Cade Cunningham in the playoffs. Teams are going to attempt to force others to beat them by throwing multiple bodies at Cade consistently, so the others will have opportunities to take advantage.

Tobias Harris did in the Toronto Raptors L. Those corner 3s can swing the momentum in a playoff game. The shooters need to provide more. Duncan Robinson and Kevin Huerter can bounce back against a Wizards team that allows guys to build confidence.

Before the snipers in Detroit start flowing, the Pistons need to do what got them here. Toronto out-hustled Detroit in the last outing. Dominating on the glass and on the paint are staples in Detroit’s success this year. Get back to doing what got you here and continue the homecourt quest.

Lineups

Detroit Pistons (48-19): Cade Cunningham, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, Jalen Duren

Washington Wizards (16-51): Bub Carrington, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly, Will Riley, Julian Reese

Question of the day

What would the guard rotation look like if it were up to you?