Before the latest NBA season began, I wrote a piece entitled End of Summer Disjointed Basketball Thoughts. Now that we are past the All-Star break, and teams have played about two-thirds of their schedules, I thought it was a good time for a follow-up, especially with all the knowledge we have gained since last August. But with that knowledge, “disjointed” doesn’t sound like the right term. What is the opposite of disjointed? Jointed? Or is disjointed one of those works without an opposite? You will hear about disgruntled employees, but you don’t fix that problem by making them “gruntled”. Yeah, that sounds worse. And if a team’s season unravels (see, for instance, the Sacramento Kings), they don’t hope to “ravel” or “re-ravel” in the following season.
Perhaps this is one of those unsolvable issues with the English language. I could go Bad Bunny and write this in Spanish, but unfortunately, no hablo Español. So I will proceed with my post-All-Star game jointed thoughts in English.
My first disjointed thought in my post from last August addressed the three-guard conundrum the Spurs had purportedly created by drafting Dylan Harper when they already had DeAron Fox and Stephon Castle. I think I nailed this one:
“The basketball universe unanimously approved the Spurs’ selection on Dylan Harper as the clear second best player in the 2025 NBA draft. The only concern I have heard is that Harper’s skills overlap with those of the anticipated starting backcourt of De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle.
“Having coached a bit, I know that having three good guards for the two backcourt spots is a good thing, not a bad one. The reason is simple — players don’t play all 48 minutes. Indeed, the Spurs’ best player last year (you know his name) averaged just 33 minutes per game. In 17 games with the Spurs, Fox averaged 34 minutes while Castle averaged 27. If Fox and Castle play the same amount this season, they will play a total of 61 minutes out of the 96 minutes available. That leaves 35 minutes for Harper or others — for instance. if Devin Vassell splits his time between the 2 and the 3. Harper will be not be 20 years old until March 2026 — and 20 is probably about the right number of minutes for such a young player in his rookie season.”
Coming out of the All-Star break, Fox was averaging 32 minutes per game, Castle was at 30, and Harper was at 22 minutes per game. A total of 84 minutes out of the 96 available. And to quote Teri Hatcher — those minutes have been real and spectacular. As predicted, Vassell surely soaked up about 12 minutes per game playing the 2-spot on the rare occasions the Spurs play only one of their spectacular guards.
I also addressed the log-jam at the forward spots:
“The three man rotation may not work as well for the Spurs frontcourt because the Spurs have five players competing for those minutes: Vassell, Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan and Julian Champagnie.”
The Spurs “solved” that log-jam by essentially not playing Sochan, and then electing to not play him right out of town. We all hope he does well with the Knicks — he just didn’t get significant time this year with the Spurs. The rest of the group are all part of the regular rotation, with Vassell averaging 30 minutes per game (which includes his time at the 2), Champagnie starting with 28 minutes per game, Johnson thriving in the Sixth Man role at 24 minutes, and Barnes (who has forgotten how to shoot) now coming off the bench – still averaging 28 minutes but with a downward arrow.
For the post guys, I said this:
“After Harper, the Spurs’ second most important addition was Luke Kornet, signed away from the Celtics. Although I have not watched very much Celtic basketball, my Celtics’ fan friends (easier to have those friends once I abandoned the Lakers) all really like him. Sticking with the minutes theme, Kornet averaged just over 18 minutes per game, which fits nicely into the minutes that Victor is not on the floor. If you double Kornet’s counting stats, over 36 minutes Kornet averaged 12 points, 10 boards and 2 blocks — much more productive than anyone who filled the back-up 5 role for the Spurs last season.”
Because of some minutes restrictions and missed games by the Spurs main post guy (you know who that is), Kornet has averaged 23 minutes per game, more than the 18 minutes I projected. But the predicted productivity has been there – over 36 minutes, Kornet is at 11, 10 and 2 – and some very effective and bone-crushing screens to free shooters.
All in all, I think my pre-season disjointed thoughts about the Spurs were actually pretty jointed. Other jointed thoughts:
- The Spurs are now closer to the first place Thunder than they are to third place. Raise your hand if you predicted that before the season started. All of you with your hands up, I don’t believe you, but yes, you can use the restroom. I could ask the same question about whether you predicted the Spurs’ 4-1 record against the defending champion Thunder, but people probably don’t need to use the restroom twice. (If you do, think about going to Urgent Care.)
- Speaking of second and third place, if the Spurs don’t overtake OKC, they really need to stay in that second slot in the West. With their almost total lack of play-off experience, the Spurs would greatly benefit from a fairly easy first-round series to get their feet wet. Coming in second allows such a series. The teams presently in those slots are likely to remain there because (1) they aren’t good enough or healthy enough to move up and out of the 7-10 slots and (2) the teams below those four teams both stink and are trying to stink even more, also known as “tanking”. (Portland, in 10th place, has six more wins than 11th place Memphis.) Coming in third would mean a first round series against a playoff-tested team like the Timberwolves or the Lakers — or even a Denver team with championship experience. No thank you. The second simple reason to prefer the second slot is obvious. If the Spurs get through the first round, they would much rather have home court advantage against who ever they play next— likely the Nuggets or Rockets.
- Rooting for the Spurs to come in second puts me in the unusual position of rooting against a team I generally like – the Nuggets. Thursday night was especially tough, because that meant rooting for the LA Clippers in their stunning one-point win over the Nuggets. And that win came playing a bunch of guys I have never heard of and one I have — Kawhi Leonard. To avoid the whiplash, I decided to just turn off the TV and go read a book.
- Is it too soon to start looking at Eastern Conference records? I earlier pointed out that the Celtics have been the one team even more surprisingly successful this season than the Spurs. And it looks like Jason Tatum will be joining the team in March, with enough time to ramp up before the playoffs. As of Saturday, the Celtics are three games back of the Spurs. If that holds up, the Spurs would have home-court advantage in a Finals match-up with the Celtics. Am I predicting that? No. But if that happens, I will certainly come back to this post and make some small adjustments to make the answer: “Yes, and you saw it here first!!”.
