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Another busy slate across the Majors presents lots of opportunity for long balls in my MLB player props home run analysis. 

I'll get things started with Heriberto Hernandez, followed by James Wood and Yordan Alvarez. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, July 18. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Heriberto Hernandez	+370
James Wood	+243
Yordan Alvarez	+296
💲Today's HR parlay	+6528

Home run pick: Heriberto Hernandez (+370)

Heriberto Hernandez is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now. He owns a .571 ISO across his last nine games, homering four times during that span. Hernandez is also averaging a 20.4-degree launch angle and 30% barrel rate in the last two weeks. 

He'll face Milwaukee Brewers left-hander Shane Drohan today, who is only allowing 0.99 HR/9 over the last month. However, Hernandez has showcased power against southpaws, posting a .338 ISO. 

Milwaukee’s bullpen has also limited home runs lately, but its 43.3% hard-hit rate across the last 40 innings provides some vulnerability.

I'll play this pick down to +300. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Marlins.TV

Home run pick: James Wood (+243)

James Wood enters the second half in impressive power form, clubbing six home runs across his last nine games. The slugger has a mind-boggling .633 ISO during that span, and 59.1% hard-hit rate. 

Tonight's matchup happens to be a favorable one. He'll face Athletics right-hander J.T. Ginn, who has allowed 1.75 HR/9 over his last five appearances. The A's bullpen has struggled with long ball lately as well, giving up 2.55 HR/9 in the last two weeks. 

Sutter Health Park in Sacramento happens to also be hitter-friendly, although Wood's raw power doesn't exactly need help. 

I'll play this pick down to +200. 

• Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NBC Sports California, Nationals.TV

Home run pick: Yordan Alvarez (+296)

Yordan Alvarez continues to punish opposing pitchers. He carries a .400 ISO over his last nine contests into tonight's matchup against Trevor Rogers, homering four times during that span. He's consistently squaring up the baseball as well, posting a 51.7% hard-hit rate over the last month. 

I won't sit here and say this is going to be an easy matchup. Rogers isn't allowing many bombs lately, and the Baltimore Orioles bullpen has limited power as of late. However, it's hard to overlook Alvarez's success against left-handers, carrying a .286 average and .265 ISO. 

I'll play this pick down to +250. 

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SCHN, MASN

Today’s HR parlay

Heriberto Hernandez	Bet Now +6528
James Wood
Yordan Alvarez

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Good morning, LSB.

The Rangers got destroyed by the Braves in their first game back from the ASB.

Kennedi Landry writes about Chris Sale good and Cal Quantrill ungood.

Evan Grant has fan reactions from the switch to BZZR, which didn’t exactly shine in its debut.

Elsewhere Grant says the Rangers face a key 16-game stretch that will determine their fate at the trade deadline.

Sebastian Walcott made his season debut with the RoughRiders last night.

And finally, MLB is cracking down on teams using AI to make in-game decisions such as “You’re so right — a fastball down the middle is likely to take Yordan Alvarez by surprise.”

That’s all for this morning. Have a good weekend!

Triple-A: Norfolk Tides 4, Nashville (Brewers) 2

This one started out with Cade Povich doing Cade Povich things, namely giving up home runs. Fortunately, although he gave up two of them, each was a solo shot, so on the whole, his outing was fine: Two runs on four hits and two walks over five innings. I think we can call that “keeping your team in the game,” and Norfolk’s hitters came through later on to get Povich off the hook. They scored two in the seventh to take the lead and then one in the ninth for a little insurance.

Folks, I really, really want to be able to share good news about Enrique Bradfield in these recaps. There’s just nothing going on there. He was 0-3 and drew a walk, picking up an RBI groundout for his trouble. A .660 OPS in Triple-A just isn’t going to cut it, no matter how fast he is. Another player I try to will to good results is Heston Kjerstad. 0-4. The Tides won this one while getting just four hits. That’s good for the players who are on that team! They haven’t had many wins this year so I hope they enjoyed it.

Everyone’s favorite Tides reliever, Andrew Magno, pitched a scoreless eighth with one hit allowed, lowering his season ERA to 1.01 in 35.2 innings.

Box score.

Double-A: Hartford (Rockies) 7, Chesapeake Baysox 3

My honorary hyphenated cousin Juaron Watts-Brown got the start for Chesapeake here, turning in a solid outing. He pitched five innings on 69 pitches, allowing a run on three hits and a walk, with five strikeouts. When he left the game, the Baysox held a 2-1 lead. They gave up three runs in the seventh inning and three more in the ninth to lose it. I don’t like piling on non-prospects who aren’t up to snuff. Check out the box score if you want to know who specifically did it.

The Baysox spread eight hits across their starting lineup. My guy Aron Estrada took an 0-4 out of the leadoff spot.

Box score.

High-A: Greenville (Red Sox) 8, Frederick Keys 7

This one puts a downer on anything else there might be to say about the other games. Pitching prospect Boston Bateman, the jewel of last year’s trade with the Padres, exited this game after just 1.2 innings with what the Orioles called left triceps tightness. Sometimes that’s one of the precursors to the bad thing. Sometimes it’s not. Nothing to do there but wait and see and hope for the best. He was struggling a bit even before the injury; he ended up allowing two runs on a hit and two walks, though he did have four strikeouts.

The Keys led this one going into the bottom of the ninth but got only one out before giving up two runs to get walked off.

Frederick had 12 hits in the game, with five different players picking up multi-hit games. That included rehabbing Triple-A guy Creed Willems, who drove in three of the seven runs with one swing in the first inning. Last year’s first rounder, Ike Irish, also homered, his 13th of the season.

Box score.

Low-A: Delmarva Shorebirds 14, Salem (Red Sox) 11

25 combined runs, 22 combined hits, 13 combined walks, seven combined errors. That’s a certified donnybrook of the kind you can sometimes get in the lowest full-season level of the minors.

When all was said and done, the Shorebirds came out on top of this thing, riding an eight-run fifth inning to a big lead that they never surrendered, try though they might with three spots allowed in the seventh and ninth innings. Crucially, guys you’d like to see be part of an offensive explosion were part of the offensive explosion, starting with infielder Jaiden Lo Re, the recent sensation, who had two hits and three runs scored as well as three runs batted in. Lo Re is up to a .954 OPS since joining the Shorebirds. Last year’s fifth round pick is making a good impression in his first full pro season.

Outfielder Jordan Sanchez also drove in three runs with a pair of hits, in his case including his sixth homer of the season. Sanchez had a walk as well. Fellow outfield prospect Stiven Martinez had two hits in addition to a pair of walks and he stole his eighth base. Infielder DJ Layton stole two bases, giving him 28 steals on the season.

Box score.

Saturday’s Scheduled Games

• Norfolk: at Nashville, 7:35. Starter: Nestor German
• Chesapeake: vs. Hartford, 6:35. Starter: Joseph Dzierwa
• Frederick: at Greenville, 6:45. Starter: Patrick Reilly
• Delmarva: at Salem, 6:35. Starter: Christian Rodriguez

Let’s see, how does this go? Welcome back to the remainder of the season. The post-All-Star break portion of the season. Or in common vernacular, the second half. Roughly two weeks before peak trading season. This is almost always an interesting time in the life of a large market team (even if they occasionally behave as a more financially restrained team).

Let’s get back into the groove, shall we? I’ve been liking to start with the perspective check. I do so, probably as much for me as any of you. This team tends to look very bad when it’s bad and very good when it’s good and have little in-between. Four teams have more wins than the Cubs. Two teams have as many wins as the Cubs. The Cubs are on pace to win 90 games. As it stands today, the Cubs would be the top Wild Card team by virtue of a tie breaker with the Phillies, earned by winning the season series.

This was one of those games that wasn’t in either category. The team looked okay. You can’t except the worst inning of the whole game. However, except for one weird inning, the Cubs won the other eight innings 2-1. You certainly can’t assume sequencing holds. Afterall, the single biggest question mark for this team is its bullpen. Could it have otherwise held a 2-1 lead over the final three innings? I mean, they couldn’t hold a 4-2 deficit over the final three innings when that would have been helpful.

That one inning exploded when Michael Busch tried to make a nice play at second. The advancing runner appeared to screed Dansby Swanson a little bit. I wondered at the time if the play wasn’t close to interference. Maybe you look at it closer if your starting shortstop isn’t writhing on the ground in pain from the ball flukishly bouncing off of his glove and hitting him in the face.

Three of the five hits Colin Rea allowed on the evening occurred during that inning and after that play and four of the five hits against him occurred in that inning. Ironically, Busch and Swanson had hooked up on a very similar play two innings earlier. That’s a huge play if Busch makes it, not only getting the first out but also keeping the double play in order. I didn’t look for interviews after the game, but I’ll assume Dansby said he should have fielded that throw. As wild throws go, it wasn’t really. The baserunner just ended up in the line of the throw and ended up screening Swanson. Just unfortunate. You can’t assume the rest of the Cub sequencing but assume that Rea wouldn’t have allowed a single and a homer otherwise. It’s just too much cherry picking. It was just an unfortunate inning.

The offense managed six hits and four walks. Two runs feels pretty reasonable for that level of production. There was just on extra base hit, a double. The Cubs stole a base. The steal led to the first run. The double led to the second run. It’s almost as if those things increase your odds of scoring. We talked about it before the break. This team has most of its wins in games that is scores five or more runs. They simply don’t win many low scoring affairs like this one.

Three Positives:

• Nico Hoerner singled twice.
• Seiya Suzuki had a double, drew a walk and scored a run.
• Gavin Hollowell struck out the only two batters he faced.
• Obligatory Pete Crow-Armstrong: A walk, a stolen base and a run scored in four plate appearances.

Game 97, July 17: Twins 5, Cubs 2 (54-43)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Seiya Suzuki (.078). 1-3, 2B, BB, R
• Hero: Michael Busch (.061). 1-4, RBI
• Sidekick: Gavin Hollowell (.055). 0.2 IP, 2 BF, 2 K

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Colin Rea (-.202). 6 IP, 24 BF, 5 H, BB, 4 R (3 ER), 6 K (L 7-6)
• Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.137). 0-3, DP
• Kid: Carson Kelly (-.120). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Ryan Jeffers’ three-run homer with no outs in the third, turned a tie game into a three run lead. (.200)

Reds Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s RBI single with no outs in the first gave the Cubs the game’s first run. (.118)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 96 Winner: Alex Bregman received 82 of 86 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Pete Crow-Armstrong +24
• Michael Busch +17
• Carson Kelly +15.5
• Ben Brown +13.5
• Trent Thornton/Alex Bregman +12.5
• Edward Cabrera -9.5
• Phil Maton -10
• Nico Hoerner -12
• Dansby Swanson -13
• Caleb Thielbar -14

Take a picture. This is the first time in a very long time that Seiya Suzuki has not been bottom five.

Up Next: Game two of the three game series Saturday. Matthew Boyd (5-1, 4.50) gets the start for the Cubs. They could technically have gotten cute and had him start Friday on four days of rest. But teams generally will get a guy five days when they can. If I were saying this same thing 40 years ago, those words would be three and four respectively. I do sometimes get amazed at how much baseball has changed in my lifetime.

25-year-old Taj Bradley (9-3, 3.59) starts for the Twins. If this is your introduction to the Twins, they have a pretty good pitching staff. Bradley was a fifth round pick of the Rays back in 2018. He was drafted out of one of my favorite ever places, Stone Mountain, Georgia. I was a professional wrestling fan in the 80’s and remember it from that. Taj won his last three starts before the break and four of his last five. In those five starts, he threw 31 innings, allowing just eight runs.

This is a tough matchup.

David Lesky has a Royals trade primer that includes the possibility they trade Michael Wacha.

The Royals have said that they will listen, but the offer would have to be astronomical. First of all, that’s probably the correct mindset to have this far from the deadline, at least on what they’d accept. But I hate the idea that they aren’t doing some of the shopping as well. I mentioned above that this would be a good time to jump the market. It’s risky, but if they wait, teams could get more desperate too. But either way, they should at least be actively reaching out and telling teams what they want for Wacha.

I’m fine if they don’t trade him because a deal just didn’t materialize. All the reasons he’s attractive in a trade are reasons the Royals would want to keep him. His salary goes down to $14 million next year, and then he has an affordable $14 million team option in 2028. Now, he’s 35 years old and age doesn’t typically help a pitcher once they get to the mid-30s. But he’s having another pretty solid season, though he’s struggled lately. He’s steady and gives you innings. Teams would be lining up to get Wacha.

Anne Rogers has some injury updates and reports that Stephen Kolek won’t be activated for today’s game.

Jim Bowden of The Athletic previews the trade market for sellers like the Royals.

Potential trade chips: Veteran starters, relievers, Lane Thomas

The Royals have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball this year, and they really have no choice but to sell. The most likely Royals to be traded are All-Star right-hander Michael Wacha and veteran right-hander Seth Lugo….

This is an important trade deadline for Kansas City, and they need to take advantage of the sellers’ market.

Royals prospect Angeibel Gomez is a Dominican Summer League All-Star highlighted by Baseball America.

Gomez signed with Kansas City this past January and immediately translated his strong amateur track record to pro ball. He’s been one of the league’s most electric players in the first half of the season and has a good chance to rank No. 1 in the league after the year concludes. His plus-plus speed and plus arm strength give him a strong chance to stick in center field, and he’s been one of the league’s standouts in the batter’s box as well. Gomez has already posted exit velocities better than 110 mph, and he rarely misses or chases. Through 27 games, the 17-year-old is hitting .330/.459/.602 with nine doubles, five home runs and 10 stolen bases. He’s also racked up more walks (18) than strikeouts (13).

MLB Pipeline adds Royals prospect David Shields to its top 100 prospect list.

The Orioles acquire outfielder Rudy Martin from the Royals.

The Pirates/Guardians games is postponed due to poor air conditions from Canadian wildfires.

A’s slugger Brent Rooker has season-ending knee surgery.

Dayn Perry ranks the top 50 players in baseball.

Are the Red Sox for real?

Adam Ottavino accuses the Mets of being the reason why MLB is cracking down on iPad usage.

Dan Szymborski at Fangraphs updates ZIPS standings.

The Brewers will use newly-acquired pitcher Lance McCullers in the bullpen.

Jeff Passan has the latest he is hearing on the trade market.

Aaron Judge is not ready for baseball activities.

FOX, ESPN, and Netflix are reportedly interested in bidding on MLB World Series rights.

Former Mets All-Star Ron Hunt dies at age 85.

The NFL suspends a Cardinals executive for gambling.

Caitlin Clark scores a career-high 45 points in a Friday comeback win.

Apple unseats Nvidia as the world’s most valuable company.

Astronomers say a meteorite that hit a home in New Jersey contains “alien world chemistry.”

Chipotle opens its first location in Mexico.

Your song of the day is The Four Tops with It’s the Same Old Song.

Fresh off of the All-Star break, the Yankees had a disappointing start to the second half of the season. New York’s offense was quiet, while a clutch homer from Max Muncy sealed the deal for the Dodgers later in the game. Despite the unfortunate return in Yankeeland, there was plenty of baseball going on elsewhere, so let’s take a look at the goings on coming out of the break.

Boston Red Sox (47-48) 10, Tampa Bay Rays (56-39) 0 (Game 1)

With a doubleheader on tap between the Rays and Red Sox, Boston was looking to stay hot on Friday, and that they did. Sox starter Jake Bennett had the good stuff on the mound, while the bats put up double-digit runs on Tampa Bay’s pitchers.

The Red Sox kicked off scoring in the second inning when a sacrifice fly followed by Carlos Narváez’s RBI single had them up 2-0. Later on, a Masataka Yoshida solo homer off Griffin Jax had them up by three, but Boston’s six-run sixth inning was where they really separated themselves. In that inning, Jarren Duran tallied his second and third RBIs of the afternoon, while three other Sox notched ones of their own.

All the while, Bennett was dealing on the mound, as the lefty worked six scoreless innings, allowing just one hit and striking out three. His effort was the driving force in keeping the Rays out of the run column in game one.

Narváez’s capped off his big day with a solo shot in the seventh, which put Boston up by the final of 10-0. It was their 10th consecutive win, with more to come on the day.

Boston Red Sox (48-48) 5, Tampa Bay Rays (56-40) 3(Game 2)

In the nightcap of the doubleheader, though the process was a bit different, the results were not. The action started early in this one, with Jonny DeLuca’s single scoring a pair, before homers from Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras flipped things in favor of Boston in the bottom half of the first.

Junior Caminero smacked his 29th home run of the season in the top of the third, which knotted things back up, as both Eduardo Rivera and Mason Englert had forgettable days on the mound. In the bottom half of that inning, Wilyer Abreu stayed hot and belted his second homer of the game, one that gave his crew a lead they would hold onto the rest of the day.

The second win of the day was the 11th straight for the smoking-hot Red Sox, as they are charging back into contention at the expense of the Rays to kick off the second half. It’s Boston’s longest winning streak since 2016. So while the Yankees did gain a half-game on Tampa Bay despite their own loss to the Dodgers, it’s at least an uneasy feeling with Boston now in a virtual tie with Minnesota (who beat the Cubs 5-2) for the last Wild Card spot.

Other Games

Chicago White Sox (51-45) 12, Toronto Blue Jays (45-52) 5: It was a good day for sock teams, as those of the Chicagoan variety also put up double-digit runs on Friday. A five-run second inning, fueled in part by Sam Antonacci’s two-run homer had them in business early, while three runs in the fifth and four in the seventh just about sealed the deal. It was too much to keep up with for the Jays, as the White Sox were able to maintain their slim lead in the Central for at least another day. (The Guardians’ game against the Pirates was postponed due to the wildfire smoke conditions in Cleveland.)

Atlanta Braves (55-40) 15, Texas Rangers (47-45) 1: Keeping with the theme of the day, the Braves also put a hurtin’ on the Rangers by putting up 15 runs at home. Atlanta plated multiple runs in five different innings, forcing an early and unfortunate exit for Cal Quantrill, though his pals out of the bullpen didn’t fair any better. The Rangers tallied just one run on five hits, while the Braves managed 19, three of which left the park. Most amusingly, an actual pitcher got a hit in garbage time, with Atlanta reliever Victor Mederos singling off old friend Kyle Higashioka.

San Francisco Giants (41-55) 7, Seattle Mariners (48-49) 0: In the late slate of games, the Giants took an easy win from the Mariners in a west coast matchup. Landon Roupp was excellent on the mound for San Francisco, as he tossed seven shutout innings, with Willy Adames’ grand slam being the big blow on the offensive side. With both the Mariners and Rangers losing (as did the Astros, for good measure), Texas retains their 1.5-game lead in the West despite sitting just one game over .500.

It was a rough first night back after the All-Star break for the Phillies’ affiliates. The Clearwater Threshers were the only team to come away with a win, and even that required extra innings.

Omaha 2, Lehigh Valley 1

The IronPigs’ bats looked like they were still on a break, mustering just one run on two hits. However, one of those hits was a solo home run by Dylan Moore.

On the bright side, it was a solid night for the IronPigs’ pitching staff with starting pitcher Brian Keller giving up a lone run while striking out six in six innings. Tucker Davidson covered two innings in relief and suffered the loss by giving up a home run in the seventh inning.

Altoona 6, Reading 2

The Fightin’ Phils’ offense wasn’t much better as they scored only two runs in their loss to the Altoona Curve. The lone offensive highlight came in the fourth inning when outfielder Raider Tello had an RBI single to tie the game at two runs apiece.

Starting pitcher Luke Russo gave up three runs in his 5.1 innings of work and then Jack Dallas gave up two more in 1.2 inning of relief.

Wilmington 5, Jersey Shore 4

A bad first and ninth innings doomed the BlueClaws in their loss to the Blue Rocks on Friday. Starting pitcher Sam Highfill allowed three hits and a walk in the opening frame to put the ‘Claws in a 0-3 hole. But the relief pitching stabilized things, allowing the ‘Claws to come back. Brandon Lewis and Carter Mathison homered before second baseman Daunte Stewart’s RBI single in the ninth put them up 4-3.

Unfortunately, reliever Titan Kennedy-Hayes gave up two runs in the ninth as the Blue Rocks walked it off.

Clearwater 16, Dunedin 11

The Threshers had a big offensive night, including a six run tenth inning to surge past the Blue Jays in an extra-inning slugfest. The biggest offensive star of the game was Juan Villavicencio who hit two home runs. Matthew Ferrara had four hits and four RBI, and Nolan Beltran added three hits, including a two-run game tying single in the ninth.

It wasn’t a great night for the Threshers’ pitching staff as every pitcher who appeared in the game allowed at least one run. Marty Gair earned the win by allowing just one run over the final two innings.

FCL Blue Jays 9, FCL Phillies 2

FCL Blue Jays 4, FCL Phillies 1

A doubly bad night for the Phillies’ FCL affiliate. First, they lost the resumption of a suspended game and then recorded just a single hit in the second game. At least the hit was a two-run home run by catcher Cesar Mujica.

DSL Twins 10, DSL Phillies 7

The DSL Phillies got off to a 5-0 lead, thanks in part to a first inning home run by first baseman Nelson Prieto. But the pitching staff was unable to hold it. Releiver Filippo Sabatini gave up five runs (three earned) in three innings, and Justin Burgos gave up three runs without recording a single out.

Last night the Nats delivered a beatdown the likes of which I have not seen in many years. Everyone ate in Sacramento, with the Nats putting up an absurd 23 runs. Those 23 runs are tied for the second most in franchise history. Once the Nats got into the A’s bullpen, things just spiraled out of control.

In a season full of dominant offensive performances, this was the best of them all. After struggling to get going in the Yankees series, especially with runners on base, this Nats offense was angry. A bad Athletics pitching staff got to feel the full wrath of an offense that has been chomping at the bit for nearly a week.

The crazy thing is that the offense looked to be in for a long day at first. A’s starter Gage Jump looked electric out of the gates, retiring the first seven hitters, with five of them coming via the strikeout. Jump was consistently in the upper 90’s, and even touched 100 MPH once. However, even when they were struggling to make contact, they were still making Jump work.

It was the third inning when the scoring opened, with Curtis Mead and Andres Chaparro cashing in with two out RBI’s. Mead and Chaparro each had four hit days, and started their second halves in style. Everyone was eating though. There was not a hitter in the lineup who did not get a hit.

While everyone was hitting, nobody was better than Andres Chaparro. He had one of the best games in Nats history. The husky slugger had four hits and a walk, driving in 8 runs and hitting two homers. It was an impressive night, but that first home run was just mind blowing. His 467 foot blast was the fourth longest Nats home run of the statcast era and looked like it went about 600 feet.

Before this game, Chaparro had a .586 OPS and was drawing the ire of fans because he was taking at bats away from Luis Garcia. However, he exited the game with a .776 OPS after his massive night. We need to see Chaparro be consistent, but it is worth noting that he was getting very unlucky before last night. The 27 year old turned around his season in one night though.

The Nats other big star from this game was just getting his MLB season started. Harry Ford got off to a dreadful start in the minor leagues, but has been getting better and better each month. With Drew Millas going down with injury, it was Ford’s time to shine and he made quite the first impression.

After an inauspicious start where he struck out and blew a challenge, Ford came to life. His second at bat was exactly the kind of thing he has been doing in the minors for about  a half decade now. He worked a walk while spitting on several very close pitches. The athletic catcher also got to second base on a wild pitch that did not get too far away from Shea Langeliers. That helped the Nats manufacture a run.

His biggest swing of the game came in the next inning, when the 23 year old hit his first career big league homer. The former first rounder crushed a ball to left center that left the yard. For a big name prospect who has played over 500 games in the minors, that had to be a special moment. 

Ford had not shown the power he did in previous seasons this year. However, he was starting to find it the last few weeks, as his nagging shoulder injury seems to be getting a lot better. It is no surprise, but I found myself very impressed with the quality of Ford’s at bats. He may not have great power or contact skills, but his elite plate discipline really elevates the entire profile.

The offense was undoubtedly the star of the show last night, as it has been for the whole season. However, I do not want to ignore Cade Cavalli’s performance in a very hitter friendly ballpark. Cavalli went six innings, allowing just two runs while striking out 9 and walking nobody. He didn’t throw his curveball as much as he normally does, but it was devastating when he used it. Cavalli used his curveball as a put away pitch, getting a lot of strikeouts with the hook.

It is easy to forget that this is Cavalli’s first full big league season. With that in mind, what he is doing is very impressive. He has a 3.78 ERA and 3.20 FIP with 119 strikeouts in 104.2 innings. That is rock solid production for a guy who has taken a winding road to get here. Cavalli should be a fixture in the Nats rotation for years to come.

I could go on and on about the offensive performances, but I do not want to be here all day. The Nats ended the first half tied for the league lead in runs scored. Apparently that did not sit well with them because they are now way ahead of the pack again.

I don’t want to jinx anything, but let’s just say that I am excited to see what this offense can do in Sacramento and in Coors Field to start next week. That league lead in runs could get even wider. 

Whenever I resign myself to the Nats selling at the deadline, they do something like this and it makes me want to buy again. I can only imagine the inner struggle Paul Toboni is facing with the deadline looming. This offense is so special, but this team is also very flawed and the plan was for this to be a long term ordeal.

However, the offense has put a wrench in that plan by being so good, so quickly. This road trip will tell us a lot about where the Nats stand. If they can go 4-2 or better, it will put Toboni in a real bind. This offense is just so special, and I can’t wait to see them paired with a better pitching staff in the years to come.

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The Chicago Cubs are -145 favorites to get revenge following a 5-2 loss in the series opener.

Given Taj Bradley's incredible recent form, my Twins vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks see value in backing the road team at a healthy plus-money price on Saturday, July 18.

Who will win Twins vs Cubs today: Twins moneyline (+125)

Matthew Boyd posted a 2.86 ERA over the past month despite a 4.82 xFIP and 5.59 xERA – strong signals his numbers could soon take a turn for the worst.

He has had a more difficult time against right-handed bats and, including switch-hitters, the Minnesota Twins could throw as many as seven at him on Saturday afternoon.

Taj Bradleyowns a 2.32 ERA the past month with much better indicators to boot (2.49 xERA, 3.25 xFIP).

He should keep the Chicago Cubs in check, positioning the Twins to pull off the upset.

Bet to +110.

COVERS INTEL:Taj Bradley ranks in the 93rd percentile in Fastball Run Value, and he throws that pitch more than double anything else.

Twins vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 9.0 (-110)

Boyd has his flaws but he limits homers effectively andthe Twins rank 28th in OPS vs. lefties the past two months. They severely quick-strike offense against southpaws.

Bradley is a high strikeout pitcher who has held opponents to a 33% hard hit rate over his last five starts. That has helped him limit the longballs, allowing just 1.16 per nine innings.

We shouldn’t see much power in this game, which will make it difficult for both teams to score in bulk and push this game Over.

I like the Under and would play it to -120.

Twins vs Cubs weather

Temperatures are expected in the mid 80s with winds blowing east. Boost to the offenses.

Twins vs Cubs odds

• Moneyline: Minnesota +125 | Chicago -145
• Run line: Minnesota +1.5 (-160) | Chicago -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-110) | Under 9.0 (-110)

Twins vs Cubs trend

Minnesota has hit the moneyline in 11 of the last 15 away games (+9.10 units, 59% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Cubs.

How to watch Twins vs Cubs and game info

Twins vs Cubs latest injuries

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Miguel Vargas is one of the league's hottest hitters against right-handed pitchers, and he draws a struggling righty this afternoon in Shane Bieber.

With such an advantageous matchup, Vargas headlines my three MLB player props and MLB picks for Saturday, July 18.

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Miguel Vargas	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs	-132
Samuel Basallo	Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs	+101
Luis Garcia Jr	Over 1.5 total bases	-107

Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-132)

Things have not gone well for Shane Bieber. He is sporting a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP through just under 18 innings of work. He has also allowed a ton of power, conceding seven homers.

He has struggled even more so against right-handed hitters, allowing an absurd .419 average to date.

That puts Miguel Vargas in a very good spot. He has hit .346 vs. righties with a remarkably strong 20.4% barrel rate over his last 20 games.

He’s hitting for contact, he’s hitting for power, and Bieber is consistently giving up both.

Bet to -150.

• Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: CHSN, Sportsnet

Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+101)

Samuel Basallo mashes right-handed pitching. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in xwOBA, the 96th percentile in xSLG, and consistently makes hard contact.

He is going to cause problems for Spencer Arrighetti, whose profile against lefties is littered with red flags – and only getting worse.

Arrighetti has allowed a .321 average, .426 ISO, and .491 wOBA when facing left-handed bats over his last five starts. 

He is in miserable form, and Basallo is a likely candidate to take advantage.

Back the Baltimore Orioles’ slugger to -135.

• Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: MASN, SCHN

Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-107)

J.T. Ginn has conceded a .268 average against left-handed hitters over his last 10 starts, which is over .100 points higher than what he held righties to during the same stretch. 

Isolating starters who rank in the 45th percentile or worse in xSLG and xwOBA vs. lefties, Luis Garcia Jr. has cleared 1.5 total bases in 68.4% of his games and averaged 3.5 bases along the way.

Garcia also owns ISOs of .320 or higher against three of Ginn’s four most-used pitches. 

This is a great spot to deal damage.

Bet to -125.

• Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: NATS, NBCSCA

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San Diego Padres closer Mason Miller threw 16 pitches in the bottom of the ninth inning. He opened the inning allowing a single to Isaac Collins and a double to Carter Jensen. Miller issued an intentional walk to Bobby Witt Jr. to load the bases with no outs for the Kansas City Royals. The All-Star reliever then recorded three consecutive strikeouts to end the Kansas City threat and the inning to send the game to extra-innings.

San Diego scored three runs in the top of the 10th inning to take what looked to be a comfortable 6-3 lead. However, instead of Miller returning to the mound for the bottom of the 10th inning, Kyle Hart took the mound for the Padres. The left-hander was looking to secure the win and earn his first MLB save; however he allowed four runs to score on four singles and a groundout, and the Padres opened the second half of the season with a 7-6 extra-inning loss at Kaufman Stadium. It was a heartbreaking result for a team with its season on the line and could have a disastrous effect if San Diego cannot bounce back in the second game of the series today.

The Padres were on an emotional roller coaster throughout the final innings of the game. San Diego was trailing 3-2 with two outs in the top of the ninth inning. It appeared the game was all but over before Ty France hit a solo home run to tie the game at 3-3. After the Houdini act by Miller in the bottom of the ninth and the offense scoring three runs in the top of the 10th it appeared the Padres would push their win streak to three games, but that was not the case.

Michael King started the game on the mound for San Diego and he labored through five innings. He allowed just one run, which came on a solo home run by Lane Thomas, but he used 97 pitches to get through the outing. King limited Kansas City to four hits and issued two walks before turning the game over to the bullpen.

The Padres offense scored six runs with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Miguel Andujar each having three-hit games. Xander Bogaerts and France were the only other players in the San Diego lineup to record hits.

The Padres will try to get back to .500 with a win when they take on the Royals today at 1:10 p.m.

Padres News:

• A lot of questions surrounding the Padres will be answered over the next 16 games. Even more will be answered throughout the second half of the season. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball gives readers some insight as to what they can expect to see from San Diego as play resumes following the All-Star break.

• Freddy Fermin was activated off the IL and with Luis Campusano back with the big-league club, Rodolfo Duran was sent back to the minors.

• The San Diego farm system benefits from the influx of players after the 2026 MLB Draft.

• Jim Bowden of The Athleticdoes not list the Padres as one of his six teams in position to sell at the trade deadline, but he adds they could become sellers depending on their start to the second half.

Baseball News:

• The Boston Red Sox extended their win streak to 11 games with doubleheader sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Shohei Ohtani is set to pitch Wednesday for the Los Angeles Dodgers following knee injection. The Dodgers opened the second half of the season with a win over the New York Yankees.

• The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Miami Marlins in 10 innings.

• Five-run second inning propels the Chicago White Sox to a win over the Toronto Blue Jays.

• The Washington Nationals thumped the Athletics, 23-4.

• The St. Louis Cardinals scored a run in the ninth to beat the Arizona Diamondbacks.

• San Francisco shuts out the Seattle Mariners to give Giants 7-0 win.

• Brady Singer throws seven innings to lead the Cincinnati Reds past the Colorado Rockies.