Category: Sports News

Prior entries:

• Matt Olson
• Michael Harris II
• Ozzie Albies
• Bryce Elder
• Austin Riley
• Drake Baldwin
• Ronald Acuña Jr.

Chris Sale led Braves pitchers with 3.6 fWAR in 125 2/3 innings of work last year. When the Braves acquired Sale for Vaughn Grissom, they were able to do so because it was perfectly reasonable to assume that Sale would make fewer than ten starts in 2024, given his propensity for both baseball-related and off-field injuries. The guy hurt himself biking to Chipotle in a part of Boston that isn’t very friendly to bikers; you can see why the Red Sox were perhaps eager to move on. Of course, that led to some egg on some faces, as Sale dominated in a 29-start campaign in 2024, winning the NL Cy Young Award in the process.

But then came 2025, and it was time to once again have silly injuries dampen his production — this time as a result of a dive in the ninth inning of a not-that-close game that led to some boinked ribs and Sale missing about a third of the season. Whoops.

Career-to-date, status

Sale’s career is long and storied enough that summarizing it isn’t really gonna help anyone all that much for looking to 2026.

Drafted with the 13th overall pick in 2010, Sale made just 11 minor league appearances before dominating as a reliever for the White Sox in 2010-2011. He then had a crazy-dominant run as a starter from 2012-2018, putting up nearly 40 fWAR in seven seasons, making at least 26 starts in each year, and getting traded to the other Sox team partway through that run. 2019, the first year of a gaudy contract extension, featured somewhat diminished performance, and he hit the shelf with elbow inflammation that prematurely ended his season.

Things then got silly, as the 2020-2023 campaigns featured pneumonia, a pandemic, Tommy John Surgery, a rib stress fracture suffered while throwing batting practice, a finger fracture on a comebacker, the aforementioned wrist-bike-Chipotle incident, and a shoulder problem. Then he got traded to the Braves and issues miraculously disappeared for a season. Yay.

The Braves reworked Sale’s contract when trading for him. Owed $27.5 million in 2024 with a $20 million club option for 2025 at the time of the deal, the Braves changed the terms to a $16 million payout in 2024, a guaranteed $22 million in 2025, and a new club option for $18 million for 2026, which they exercised basically as soon as they were able to this offseason. (The Red Sox also sent cash along with Sale in the trade. For more, have fun reading Cot’s.) Basically, pending any additional extensions, Sale will hit free agency after this season.

Recent performance

Sale was still dominant in 2025, with the big dent on his value being him missing about two months with the rib injury sustained from diving to grab a comebacker. He put up 3.6 fWAR in 125 2/3 innings — that’s a 5.7 fWAR-per-200 innings pace. Sale’s line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-) was 57/53/66 in 2024 and 61/67/73 in 2025. So, yeah, he declined — but not by that much. And, as we noted in our player review series, if the two months he missed looked like his performance after returning (64/64/58), his 2025 could’ve looked even more like his 2024.

The question for Sale is more one of durability. He’s already shown the ability to make in-season adjustments to return to dominant performance when he starts slipping (see April 2025 compared to the months afterwards). It’s more just… he’s going to turn 37 right around Opening Day, he’s cleared 150 innings once since 2018, and that one Cy Young campaign aside, he just keeps getting hurt in weird ways.

Forecasting

Same brief disclaimer: once upon a time I built a projection system to try to mirror/get at the workings of Steamer and ZiPS. I called it IWAG. You can figure out what that means, maybe. I’m bringing it back for this series of posts. Here’s Sale, for 2026.

Not too much to say here, if you’ve read the above. There’s a big swing in Sale’s production based on health and availability, which can matter a lot. Hopefully he doesn’t have more incidents in his future, but given that the 2026 Braves are already suffering from the fallout of Ha-Seong Kim vs. a patch of ice, don’t be too optimistic here. That aside, IWAG basically sees 2026 Sale as identical to 2025 Sale on a rate basis.

If you want to chuckle, look at the chart above, then go back to the Ronald Acuña Jr. one of these, then look back at this chart. Alright, so, per IWAG, the Braves’ fortunes rest in large part on how healthy their two best players are. Cool, because they’ve never had issues with keeping guys on the field before… right?

Point is: IWAG has few qualms about Sale being anything other than a standout performer when he’s available. The question is just whether he’s available or not.

IWAG diverges from the other projection systems here. Steamer has Sale at around 4 WAR per 169 innings, more than a win below IWAG’s rate basis point estimate. ZiPS is basically in line with Steamer on a rate basis, with an even lower innings total. They probably know how to account for Sale’s advanced age better than IWAG. In any case, let’s hope Sale stays healthy and available.

Your turn

Alright, I’ve given you the info. Well, some info. You may have your own info. With that, I ask you:

• Rounded to the nearest fWAR, how much will Chris Sale produce in 2026? (If you ignore this and provide a partial fWAR, I will round it for you, and your scoring will not be based on 1 WAR around your point estimate, but 1 WAR around the rounded number.)
• How confident are you in your choice? Go with a scale from 1-5, where 3 is “I dunno, reasonably confident,” 5 is certain, and 1 is “I am participating but have no confidence in my choice and don’t want the fact that it will likely be incorrect to affect my place in any theoretical standings all that much.”

For the first time in quite some time, the Phillies are primed to have some of their top prospects play real roles on the Major League team. The Big Three of Justin Crawford, Andrew Painter, and Aidan Miller all have paths to playing on the Phillies in 2026 that are varying degrees of open. But there are some outside shots of others in the system appearing in the Majors, such as Gabriel Rincones Jr. being an option in the event of an injury to an outfielder.

But which one will bring the most juice to the big-league club? Before discussing, make sure to check out our ongoing community prospect ratings as well as the great Matt Winkelman’s 2026 prospect list in order to read up on some of the names in the Phillies system.

Crawford seems the most likely to receive the largest opportunity to provide a spark to the Major League team. It’s essentially an open secret that the starting centerfield job is his to lose this spring, and if all goes well, Crawford will make his MLB debut on Opening Day. The Phillies are clearly high on Crawford, as they’ve reportedly kept him off the table in trade discussions numerous times and are basically handing him a starting job this spring. He still has his issues, but it’s become clear that there’s not much more for him to do at Triple-A after hitting .334 with an .863 OPS in 112 games in 2025. Crawford will likely get a decent sized leash in the Majors, as the Phillies don’t really have another viable CF option currently on the roster outside of moving
Brandon Marsh over, so he’ll have plenty of chances to contribute.

Painter, like Crawford, is a candidate to receive real playing time in the Majors, but his is a little murkier. The Phillies as of today have three healthy starting pitchers in Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler will return at some point in 2026, perhaps sooner than later, but his timeframe is not certain. Taijuan Walker is the sixth starter, so he will step into the rotation in the likely event Wheeler isn’t ready for Opening Day.

That leaves Painter with the opportunity to win the fifth starter’s job in the spring in a competition that isn’t a real competition. It would only resemble a competition if Wheeler were ready to go and there’s one rotation spot for Walker and Painter, and even then, the deck would be stacked in Painter’s favor. Painter’s first season pitching in two years after Tommy John surgery was a rocky one, and there’s real concerns about whether his fastball can regain the elite shape it had pre-injury. He will also have some sort of innings limit, as he only threw 118 innings last year as he worked his way back. Still, it would be a surprise if Painter is not on the Opening Day roster, as the departure of Ranger Suárez opened a hole that ideally will be filled by Painter.

Miller meanwhile has the lowest chance to make the MLB roster but nevertheless has a path. He is currently blocked now and in the future at shortstop by Trea Turner, and at third base by Alec Bohm. However, with Bohm in the last year of his team control and the possibility of an extension being almost nonexistent, Miller would be the favorite to be the starting 3B in 2027. But if there were to be a long-term injury to one of the Phillies infielders in 2026, Miller would likely be at the front of the line to earn a promotion and there’s a chance it would be permanent if he starts the year well in Triple-A.

Rincones is in a similar boat as Miller, although he would not be a full-time starter if he were to earn a call to the Majors. A lefty outfielder who hits righties well but struggles mightily against LHP, Rincones profiles as a strong side platoon corner outfielder. The Phillies already have one of those in Brandon Marsh, but if something were to happen to him, Rincones would be the first one up in Marsh’s place.

So, which Phillies prospect will have the biggest impact in 2026? Is it one of the big three of Crawford, Painter, and Miller? Or is it someone more under the radar like Rincones?

Picture the scene. An Orioles hitter works his way into an extended at-bat. On a 3-2 pitch, he lays off of one that’s outside the zone and starts to head to first base — only for the ump to ring him up on a called strike three. The O’s have an out instead of a baserunner. The entire complexion of the inning changes. All because of a blown call on one fateful pitch.

Does it seem like that happens to the Orioles kind of a lot? Well, you’re not imagining things. Orioles hitters have been one of the league’s biggest victims of blown ball-strike calls over the past few years. According to Statcast, since the 2023 season, 2.0% of pitches outside the strike zone have been called strikes against O’s batters, a bit above the American League average of 1.9%.

In a perfect world, you’d hope that O’s hitters would also benefit from blown calls at an equal rate — as in, pitches in the strike zone being called balls. But that hasn’t been happening. In that same time span, only 1.6% of pitches to Orioles hitters have mistakenly been called balls, the lowest rate in the AL.

That 0.4% difference in miscalled strikes and miscalled balls might not seem like much, but it’s the most drastic difference among any AL team, and the most in the majors besides the Giants. Over the past three years, it’s a difference of 273 pitches. And it shows that the Orioles offense has been disproportionately unlucky on umpires’ ball-strike calls.

To be clear, I’m not suggesting that umpires are purposely pulling one over on the Birds. Calling balls and strikes is an extremely hard job, especially on borderline pitches, and it’s impossible for umps to get every one correct. Still, the Orioles have made a point of constructing an offense filled with hitters who know the strike zone. When they’re constantly getting saddled with strikes on pitches that they know should be balls, it changes the entire complexion of an at-bat. Hitters might have to start being overly aggressive or swinging at pitches they shouldn’t be swinging at, simply because they don’t trust the umpire to call the strike zone correctly.

Nearly every O’s batter has been affected by this. Of the Orioles’ nine hitters on the 40-man roster with 2+ years of MLB service time, all nine of them have been victimized by miscalled strikes more than they’ve benefited from miscalled balls in their careers. In some cases, the difference is severe.

That’s an entire lineup’s worth of Orioles hitters (including those who just joined the Orioles this offseason) who have suffered miscalled strikes in 2.2% or more of their career pitches. None of them have come close to making up for it with miscalled balls. These guys, through little fault of their own, have been faced with unfavorable counts and blown calls more than the average hitter.

Now let’s get to the good news.

As you might have heard, a major change is coming to baseball this season in the form of the Automated Ball-Strike System (ABS). This will allow a hitter, pitcher, or catcher to challenge a ball or strike call immediately after the pitch, using Hawk-Eye technology to confirm the exact location. Teams get two challenges per game but retain them if they are successful.

ABS could be a game changer for Orioles hitters, who will finally have a way to reverse the undeserved strike calls that have all too often been going against them. It could be a particular boon to Jordan Westburg and Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’ two biggest victims of blown calls in recent years. Westburg has managed to hit well despite all the miscalled strikes; Rutschman, not so much. If there’s anything that can snap Adley out of his 1.5-year offensive doldrums, perhaps it’s his regaining his confidence in his batting eye and knowing that he won’t be bilked out of an at-bat by a blown call. The same goes for the entire O’s offense.

That’s not to say that every miscalled pitch will be reversed. Since teams can only afford two unsuccessful challenges per game, they’ll likely be judicious about how often they use them. So you might not see a batter challenge, say, a 1-0 called strike in the first inning with nobody on base. It’s not worth the risk if you’re not 100% sure it’s wrong. But in a big situation, when the bases are loaded in the late innings and a borderline 3-2 pitch is called strike three? You’d better believe there will be a challenge.

ABS is a long-overdue addition to Major League Baseball. It’s a quick, easy way to minimize blown calls by home plate umpires that impact the game. And for the 2026 Orioles, it just may be the key to an offensive revival.

Yankees star Cody Bellinger’s wife, Chase Carter, is thrilled that he’s staying in the Bronx after agreeing to a five-year, $162.5 million deal Wednesday.

“We are so excited,” Chase wrote in an Instagram post, including a snapshot of them with their two daughters, Caiden and Cy, taking in fireworks at Yankee Stadium.

Her post was set to the song, “New York, New York” by Frank Sinatra.

“New York Baby,” Chase added in an Instagram Story post.

She also reposted a snapshot by Amy Cole, the wife of Yankees pitcher Gerrit Cole, which shows them at a Yankees game with Ashley Rodón, the wife of Carlos Rodón, and Reni Meyer-Whalley, the girlfriend of Max Fried.

“Jan 21st keeps delivering,” Amy wrote.

The Bellinger deal got done after the Yankees made it clear that retaining the 30-year-old was their top priority after he declined a $25 million player option.

Bellinger will return to the outfield with Aaron Judge in right field and Trent Grisham in center field. Grisham is back the Yankees after accepting the $22 million qualifying offer earlier this offseason.

The Yankees may now look to trade Jasson Domínguez or Spencer Jones, who would have been competing for the starting job in left field had Bellinger not returned.

Ranger Suárez is officially a member of the Red Sox. We found this out unofficially last week. Which started raising questions: what about the 40-man roster? Had the team flipped an outfielder or pitcher, possibly with prospects, they would have plenty of room to sign one of the remaining free agents and add that unnamed infielder. Since they did the free agent signing “first” (if there is a trade for an infielder) it meant that the Red Sox needed to open a roster spot. And they did this by trading a 40-man guy for a prospect.

Not that Tristan Gray’s 47 career MLB games makes him a veteran, but Baez has played 51 games a Double A. Transforming the roster spot into a starting pitcher and a catching prospect is nice and all, but what about that infielder?

Chris Cotillo reports that: “This is not a surprise or particularly revelatory, but have heard the Red Sox are, in fact, involved in serious trade talks all over the place when it comes to adding to the positional player group.”

Whether it’s signing Eugenio Suárez or trading for Brendon Donovan the Sox need a roster spot.

We know the Garrets (Crochet and Whitlock), Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, Aroldis Chapman, Trevor Story, Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Carlos Narvaez aren’t being traded. There are a few others as well that are highly unlikely to be moved. Think Campbell, Oviedo, and probably even Romy Gonzalez.

Triston Casas would be selling very low on potentially a 30-homer guy at a corner. Could they upgrade from Connor Wong? Sure, but he’s not going to get that other player and the organization seems to really like his work with pitchers, which is reason enough to have him as a backup. Masataka Yoshida would need a really special deal to move the contract for talent.

Nate Eaton, David Hamilton, and Nick Sogard are all more valuable to the Red Sox than what they’d bring back in a trade. Same with Jordan Hicks. Or Greg Weissert (who isn’t bad, Weissert is fine. He’s just not getting you an infielder and is a weird throw-in because he’s got a good role). Kyle Harrison is probably in this group as well. He’s a bit like Quinn Priester. He was acquired with lower value and might end up with higher value. His Red Sox time so far doesn’t seem to indicate a big step forward. And after the last few seasons, while the Sox might trade one pitcher for a bat, they are probably not interested in giving up Early/Tolle plus Harrison, since they are all starting rotation options.

Where does that leave us?

Let’s run down the options.

Jake Bennett: they did trade for him for a reason and while that applies to Tristan Gray too, Breslow probably doesn’t want to move another guy he just acquired to clear space.

The prospect pitchers: Payton Tolle/Connelly Early. We know they don’t want to move either of these guys – at least as far as leaks about Ketel Marte discussions can be believed. But could one of them help the major league team solve an infield spot for more than a year?

The outfielders: Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu.

Duran has been the drumbeat all winter. The Mets seemed like a destination, maybe, but acquired Louis Robert Jr. instead. The Cardinals are an awkward fit because turning Donovan into Duran doesn’t really make them better when their window opens again after this rebuild. Duran is 29 and not a free agent for three more years, so he could stick around for a bit. Unless Chaim Bloom thinks maybe Duran has another 8.7 WAR season coming and he could flip him for a king’s ransom at the deadline during that season? Then it’s the Astros and possibly moving Isaac Paredes? He has one fewer year of control than Duran but is a couple years younger.

Wilyer Abreu? His biggest knocks are hitting lefties and getting hurt. And some of the injuries, like falling on the dugout steps, aren’t likely to be recurring issues. He’s the youngest of Duran, Donovan, and Paredes by a couple years. He’s not a free agent until 2030. He’s a Gold Glove fielder. He is, possibly, the best of the players mentioned for swaps here. Maybe there is someone else that has escaped the rumors who could be as valuable an infielder – who is available – and that team needs an outfielder.

That’s nearly the entire 40-man roster and, going guy-by-guy, you can see why the rumor mill has only a few targets. Zack Kelly? Jovani Moran? Patrick Sandoval?

And Craig Breslow says they want to emphasize defense?

This is a very good roster thatm less than a month from Spring Training, is missing either a second or third baseman. Mayer can only play one position at a time. I suppose a Romy Gonzalez-led second base rotation could work? But then if he or Mayer or Eaton struggle or hit the IL the team is back to square one.

At the start of this I thought I might see something there but unless it’s really out of the box, like, Kutter Crawford and Moran or Brayan Bello and David Hamilton (who did attract trade attention last year so there might be suitors out there for some price, if not high) then it really is: (1) trade an outfielder, or (2) trade a pitching prospect.

Meet the Mets

The Mets acquired Freddy Peralta and Tobias Myers from the Brewers in exchange for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams.

Peralta is the ace the team had been missing and might be the final piece in a busy offseason.

Bo Bichette was formally introduced at Citi Field, and he is confident he can handle moving to third base this season. He’s also very excited to play in New York and hopes he can help the team win the World Series he was oh-so-close to last year.

David Stearns is pleased with his new-look infield and the defense they bring to the team.

Even before the addition of Peralta, Stearns’s methodical plan for this offseason was coming together.

The team signed veteran reliever Luis García to a one-year deal.

This year’s Hall of Fame results could help David Wright’s case in future ballots.

Around the National League East

Andruw Jones is headed to the Hall of Fame to join quite a few of his teammates from the ‘90s Braves teams.

Phillies GM Dave Dombrowski discussed how close the team was to signing Bo Bichette, and The Good Phight appreciated his honesty.

The three former Nationals on the Hall of Fame ballot all fell off after one year of eligibility.

Around Major League Baseball

The Yankees reportedly re-signed Cody Bellinger to a five-year deal worth $162.5 million.

The Red Sox acquired minor league catcher Nate Baez from the Minnesota Twins in exchange for infielder Tristan Gray.

Yoán Moncada is heading back to the Angels on a one-year, $4 million contract.

Buster Posey headlines the players joining the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time in 2027.

Baseball America released its list of the top 100 prospects for the 2026 season.

Yesterday at Amazin’ Avenue

On the latest episode of Flushing is Burning, Grace Carbone discussed the Bo Bichette signing.

Should Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Mark Vientos stay or go writes Linus Lawrence.

Mitch Voit came in at number 11 on Steve Sypa’s prospect list.

Missed the Bichette press conference? Brian Salvatore summarized it for you!

How does Luis Robert Jr. fit in the Mets’ lineup?

This Date in Mets History

On this date in 1997, the Mets acquired Bernard Gilkey from the Cardinals.

The BBWAA has released the results of their vote. Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones made the cut and will join Jeff Kent as new members of the Hall of Fame

Chase Utley (59.1%), Andy Pettitte (48.5), Félix Hernández (46.1) and Álex Rodríguez (40.0) were the closest to line without getting over.

Not getting 5% of the vote and falling off the ballot are Ryan Braun, Edwin Encarnacion (1.4), Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Kemp, Hunter Pence, Rick Portcello, Alex Gordon, Nick Markakis, Gio Gonzales, Homie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy (the last three getting zero votes).

Manny Ramirez also drops off the ball as it was his tenth chance. He had his highest vote total, 38.8, which was still well short. He’ll be on the Contemporary Era Committee Ballot in 2028 (but by then they will be calling it different name). We would have voted him in.

Jones gets in despite spousal assault charges in 2012, when he choked and threatened to kill his wife. Beltrán gets in despite being involved in the Astros cheating scandal.

We had our own polls (though I forgot to add the poll to the Andruw Jones post, not the first mistake I’ve ever made). Dale Murphy (from the Contemporary ballot, who I think is a much better choice than Jeff Kent, we did polls for the ones on that ballot too) and Manny Ramirez. We had Delgado very close to the line.

We also had Barry Bonds and Felix Hernandez very close to the which I like. I think Bonds should be in the Hall and Felix was the top pitcher in baseball for a number of years there.

Don Mattingly, on the other hand isn’t a Hall of Famer, in my world, but I’ve been wrong before. Beltran did far worse with us than with the Writers. I don’t see him as a Hall of Famer.

And we were much smarter on Jeff Kent than the Contemporary Committee.

Here are our votes:

Whoops, I see I missed out Dustin Pedroia (must be my personal dislike), he got 29.8

On Wednesday, the Dodgers made the Kyle Tucker signing official and held a press conference to welcome the newest Dodger.

Tucker, a seemingly quiet guy, joins a team full of larger-than-life players, including the Best Player on the Planet. The outfielder is now second only to Shohei Ohtani on the Dodgers payroll and is now also ‘just one of the guys’ in a lineup full of Guys.

Manager Dave Roberts indicated on Wednesday that while final decisions have not been made, he intends to tuck Kyle into either the second or third in the batting order. He also said that Tucker will play right field, while Teoscar Hernandez will move over to play left.

The Dodgers did what they felt they had to do to shore up their outfield, their only real weakness. The Dodgers made a more appealing pitch to the biggest free agent on the market, and who wouldn’t want to join the team that just won back-to-back World Series and don’t have much in a change in personnel to run it back a third time?

“I mean, this lineup is pretty good regardless” of his place in it, Tucker said. “I’m excited to be a part of the group and just try and pick the brains of the guys in the clubhouse and see what makes them better. And you know, they might do stuff that I might not do and vice versa, and we can just kind of build each other up.”

Tucker said all the right words in his presser on Wednesday, an awe shucks take on joining a burgeoning dynasty, as Mirjam Swanson states so well in her article.

Bill Plunkett expands on this in his article, how Tucker was the perfect guy to round out the 2026 Dodgers.

“Throughout the offseason we’ve talked a lot about how high the talent bar was of this current club, and how there’d only be a few available players that we felt would be real needle-movers when it comes to bringing another championship to Los Angeles,” General Manager Brandon Gomes said. “Kyle Tucker is at the very top of that group, and one of the most complete players in all of baseball.”

Tucker joins Andy Pages as the only position player under the age of 30, but just barely at the age of 29. It’s obvious that the Dodgers are making the most of their window with this core team, and are determined to be the most recent team to win three World Series in a row.