SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 23: A general view of play between the Bay FC and the Washington Spirit at Oracle Park on August 23, 2025 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/NWSL via Getty Images) | NWSL via Getty Images
Good morning baseball fans!
As we approach the beginning of the season, we’re going to be doing some questions for y’all about your thoughts about the San Francisco Giants and baseball in general!
Today’s question: Who do you think the fanbase tends to overrate?
Personally, I have no business answering this question. That would be extremely hypocritical. Although the favorite players of my youth tended to be franchise icons (Barry Bonds and Tim Lincecum for examples) I also tend to root for underdogs (or perceived underdogs) so I am absolutely guilty of overrating players that I like.
I’m also aware that I am guilty of letting nostalgia color my opinion of players long after their prime and I hate to see them leave. So I’m pretty sure I am the one being judged by this question. And I’m okay with that.
SARASOTA, FL - FEBRUARY 20: Pete Alonso (25) of the Baltimore Orioles flips his bat after hitting a two-run home run in the sixth inning during a spring training game against the New York Yankees on February 20, 2026 at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota, Florida. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Good morning Birdland,
After a long, chilly winter (that is still going on), the Orioles got back on the diamond down in Sarasota to play an actual game. It didn’t count for anything other than vibes, but we will take the vibes in late February with snow on the way.
If you are like me and your work or school day got filled up, you probably didn’t see the game, which got started in the early afternoon. But fear not, because you didn’t actually miss too much.
The Orioles collected eight hits on offense, but went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position. Midseason form, baby! But the headline will undoubtedly be Pete Alonso’s debut home run. The new first baseman slugged a sixth-inning home run to score himself and Jeremiah Jackson, who had singled earlier in the inning.
Meanwhile, the Orioles pitching was dynamite. Six hurlers combined to toss a nine-inning shutout. Trevor Rogers struck out three over two innings. Trey Gibson went three innings to close out the game and earn the save. And the four potential bullpen arms in between (Keegan Akin, Rico Garcia, Grant Wolfram, and José Espada) all threw one hitless frame each.
They were not facing the Yankees “A squad” here. There was no Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton, but some notable names were sprinkled in. And you can only face who is right in front of you.
Tough to give the team anything but full marks for their first actual game of the Grapefruit League season! They won. No one else got hurt. 10/10
They will be right back on the field today. Dean Kremer is on the bump (for an inning or two, anyway) to face the Pittsburgh Pirates at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota. It sounds like Chayce McDermott will also appear. The game will be on MASN, and we will have a game thread for you on this very site right at first pitch.
Links
Orioles Claim Bryan Ramos | MLB Trade Rumors He’s back! This is the second time this month that the Orioles have claimed Ramos. This time they get him from the Cardinals. For the time being, he is on the 40-man roster, the room for which was made when Félix Bautista was transitioned to the 60-day IL. Will he stick around this time? Maybe. They might actually need him now that Jordan Westburg is on the shelf through April.
Without Jordan Westburg, Orioles lean on infield depth and believe in Coby Mayo | The Baltimore Banner Speaking of which…it’s a good thing that Coby Mayo wasn’t traded this offseason. Who knows if he will pan out, but the upside of Mayo is a better option than several other avenues they could have taken instead. His presence at third base at least gives the O’s a shot of fielding an above-average player at the position.
Adam Jones on 2026 Orioles: ‘The vibes are great’ | Baltimore Baseball Jones is in camp as a guest instructor this week. Those “honors” are really starting to make me feel old. Each year it’s another guy that was good for the Orioles when I was in high school and college. That’s not how this is supposed to me! They should be significantly older than me!
Orioles birthdays
Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!
Tom Shopay turns 81 today. He spent parts of five seasons with the Orioles from 1971-72 and then again from ‘75-77.
1947 – The “instate camera,” the Polaroid Land Camera, is demonstrated by Edwin Land for the first time at a meeting of the Optical Society of America.
1948 – NASCAR is incorporated
1995 – Steve Fossett becomes the first person to make a solo flight across the Pacific Ocean in a baloon.
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 10: Pitching Coach Alon Leichman #77 of the Colorado Rockies talks to pitcher Antonio Senzatela #49 about pitching grips at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick on February 10, 2026 in Scottsdale, Arizona. (Photo by Kyle Cooper/Colorado Rockies/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Two veteran pitchers with the Colorado Rockies are gearing up for spring training as full-squad workouts began this week. Both are under contract 2026 with a club option for 2027; both are right-handed; and both will be competing in this year’s highly-anticipated edition of the World Baseball Classic.
Michael Lorenzen and Antonio Senzatela also provide a study in contrasts.
Michael Lorenzen
The Rockies brought in the 34-year-old Michael Lorenzen on a one-year, $8 million contract with a $9 million club option for 2027.
Lorenzen has become something of a journeyman after playing with the Cincinnati Reds for seven seasons to start his career. In the last four seasons, he has suited up for five different teams and made multiple post-season appearances. The Rockies will be his seventh team in 12 Major League seasons. He has posted generally good—if unremarkable—numbers throughout his career and has worked both from the rotation and the bullpen depending on team need.
He represents a significant change in standard operating procedure for the Rockies, who had not signed a free agent pitcher for more than $5 million since 2015.
“Michael actively wanted to pitch here. He’s done a lot of different things in his career – he was an outfielder, he’s been a reliever, he’s been a starting pitcher. I don’t think he’s afraid of anything.”
Colorado actively courted Lorenzen for his extensive arsenal of pitches—which could potentially reach as many as eight different offerings—with the hopes of finding an answer to the longstanding mystery of pitching at Coors Field.
Lorenzen returned their interest for the opportunity to learn and to be a “problem solver” for the Rockies, and for Lorenzen, that also means solving the problems of his teammates.
“That’s all I want to do. I want to improve myself, and then I want to help the guys around me improve,” Lorenzen told Purple Row in Scottsdale. “That’s through my experience and the wisdom that I’ve gained through years of failure and success, and being able to help guys out through that. That’s what I’m looking forward to — to be able to see guys grow around me and establish who they are in this league. That excites me.”
In the coming weeks, Lorenzen will depart Rockies camp and report for Team Italy in the World Baseball Classic. The veteran discussed looking forward to the fun environment, and to also swing a bat again—something he did regularly before Major League Baseball adopted the universal designated hitter.
“It’s fun. It’ll be great to just play in in that environment. Guys say it feels like the playoffs. So I’m excited about that, to be able to start for the team,” Lorenzen said. “One of the one of the deals was that I was going to be a two-way player in the WBC. That’s how I [ended up] playing for Team Italy.”
Playing for Team Italy also represents more opportunities to learn, especially with former Rockies reliever Adam Ottavino as one of his teammates.
“When I saw that he was pitching for Team Italy, even before, he was one of the first guys that came to mind of how he was successful here, how his sweeper played. I’ll pick his brain.”
Lorenzen will likely start the season following the World Baseball Classic as part of the Rockies’ starting rotation. Although he wants to help the Rockies conquer Coors Field, a bad season from him can be brushed off. He would be far from the first pitcher to come up short in that regard. A new landing spot wouldn’t be too hard to find.
Antonio Senzatela
31-year-old Antonio Senzatela is entering the 2026 season on the final year of a five-year, $50 million deal signed in 2021 after finishing four of his first five MLB seasons with a sub-5.00 ERA and establishing himself as a regular in the Rockies’ rotation. He is set to make $12 million this season with a $14 million club option for 2027.
The duration of the contract hasn’t gone as planned for Senzatela. During the first year of the deal, he tore his ACL mid-season. The injury caused him to miss the 2023 World Baseball Classic and the start of the regular season. When he returned to the active roster, he made just two starts before Tommy John surgery shut him down for the rest of the year and most of 2024—where he made just three starts at the end of the season. Things only got worse in 2025, where he struggled and eventually lost his spot in the rotation to be relegated to mop-up duty in the bullpen.
Senzatela has never had an extensive arsenal. After coming up through the Rockies farm system and his first few big league seasons, he really only had one pitch: his four-seam fastball. In 2025, Senzatela threw his fastball 1,316 times in 130 innings of work, just barely under 1,000 more times than he threw his secondary slider.
Now in the final year of his contract with the only team he has ever known, Senzatela is focused on his own growth and development this spring. Rather than be a “problem solver,” he has to find solutions to problems of his own.
“I worked on all my pitches and my body and everything,” he told Purple Row. “I worked on the shape of my fastball, tried to make a new slider. I talked to everybody and it feels great. They have really good information to release to us, and I think that will be great for us.”
Senzatela will be departing Rockies camp to join his native Team Venezuela for the World Baseball Classic, an opportunity he missed in 2023 due to his ACL injury.
“I’m super excited,” he said. “I can’t wait to wear that uniform, put the Venezuela on my chest. It’s gonna be huge for me. It’s gonna be huge for my family, for all my friends.
“It’s the country I was born in. It’s the country I pray for.”
Joining Senzatela on Team Venezuela is his fellow countryman, former teammate, and close friend Germán Márquez.
Márquez found himself in a similar situation to Senzatela last season, recovering from Tommy John surgery and struggling on the mound in the final year of his contract. This off-season he tested the waters of free agency for the first time and signed a one-year, $1.75 million contract with the San Diego Padres with a mutual option for 2027.
“It’s really, really cool,” Senzatela said on reuniting with Márquez. “We’re still in touch. We’re still talking, we’re still friends, and, man, it’s really nice to have him out there too, so we can keep talking and keep playing together.”
Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said during the off-season that Senzatela would remain in the bullpen. However, Senzatela will now have an outside chance at earning his rotation spot back this spring thanks to the work he has put in over the offseason. Presently, however, his chances seem small with the Rockies having brought in two other veteran starters, Tomoyuki Sugano and José Quintana.
“I think I’m just coming in here to throw the ball the best I can and just let [the coaches] make the decision,” Senzatela said. “I’ll be happy in the starting rotation, but everything depends on them. I just want to keep going and have the ball.”
For Senzatela, the impact this spring and season may have is far more profound. Another bad season means the Rockies are even less likely to pick up his expensive 2027 option, and trading him at the deadline would be difficult. He would enter free agency for the first time in his career with his value at an all-time low.
Closing Thoughts
The circumstances this year for Antonio Senzatela and Michael Lorenzen are very different, as are the ways they view the upcoming season, their status entering spring training, and even the way they view the World Baseball Classic. One is working to help the Rockies find their own future while the other is fighting for their own baseball life and future.
However, when you pull the camera back and view the picture as a whole, the tales of Antonio Senzatela and Michael Lorenzen are representative of the new-look Colorado Rockies and of their upcoming season. Their interwoven stories are those of learning, development, open minds, and, ultimately, transition and change.
PCA has snazzy new digs. Life goes on. The players are in the best shape of their lives and will get back after it today against the Rangers. This game is on Marquee/MLB.TV, 1:05 pm local time.
The Cubs set off on the path toward the 2026 regular season on the wrong foot and will have to adjust their steps. I’m going to blame it on the cold as I spent the game wrapped in a blanket, though that hardly explains Porter Hodge’s work on that Friday afternoon in Mesa.
Grant Kipp got the Cubs out of that inning at last, but by then the combination of Taillon and Hodge had allowed six runs, two of which scored on a ringing double that Seiya Suzuki mighta coulda had. PCA probably would have spit on it.
The number of players on the WBC rosters will mean lots of play by irregulars. Suzuki did treat everyone to a center-field blast, and Chas McCormick barreled the ball a couple of times, but there was little in the way of offense on this windy day in the valley.
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FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 13: Connelly Early #71 of the Boston Red Sox reacts with Payton Tolle #70 of the Boston Red Sox during a workout at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 13, 2026 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) | Getty Images
It’s pitching preview time, ladies and gentlemen. Over the next several days, I’ll be writing 10,000 words or so about everyone you might see pitching for the Red Sox to start the season. I’ve put the team’s starting options into tiers because that’s how my brain works. Don’t think of them as rankings, but rather buckets based on some similarities I see.
This is where I remind you that these tiers aren’t rankings, but groupings of similar players. Payton Tolle or Connelly Early could end up starting game two or three of a playoff series for the Red Sox and I wouldn’t be overly surprised. With too many options for too few spots, at least one of these two likely starts the season in Worcester.
Payton Tolle
2025 in a sentence: Tolle’s debut set the world on fire, but the rest of his season failed to live up to those heights.
Unless you’re brand new to Red Sox baseball and are truly using this piece to get up to speed on the roster, you probably already have thoughts about Payton Tolle. Everyone who’s followed the offseason knows that Tolle has a great fastball, and nothing else. In his second start, the Arizona Diamondbacks knew that he had nothing else, waited for fastballs, and hit the snot out of them.
Two things can be true at the same time: Tolle has an excellent fastball, and Tolle can’t throw his fastball 65% of the time. While the pitch is outstanding – 97 mph with a flat approach angle and 7.5 feet of extension – it was hit because opponents knew he had to throw it.
In 2024, Garrett Crochet put together a solid season using 54% four-seams and 28% cutters. He mixed in other pitches as well, but the two fastballs accounted for most of his arsenal. You can succeed with just two pitches, but you have to be able to locate them. Crochet spotted his cutter inside to righties and away from lefties consistently. Tolle’s cutter heatmap looked more like a Rorschach test than a game plan. Against righties in particular, Tolle’s cutters found the middle of the plate far too often. If he wants to live with two pitches, he has to locate them well.
Based on Tolle’s quotes this offseason, he doesn’t seem content trying to live with two pitches. He’s mentioned improving his changeup on more than one occasion and said he was throwing a curveball as well. I’ve told everyone willing to listen that he should add a sinker to his mix, and he appeared to be toying with that based on some Trackman live batting practice outputs.
Tolle set the bar for himself impossibly high with his debut against the Pirates. He rose to the majors so quickly that it’s easy to forget that 2025 was his first professional season. He didn’t even have a Wikipedia page at the time he was called up. If Oviedo is a sculpture waiting on the finishing touches, Tolle is a ball of clay that was just harvested from a riverbank or wherever they get clay. Do you harvest clay? Collect it? Is clay even the most common sculpting material? I don’t know. I’m a baseball nerd, not an art geek. Regardless, Tolle can go a million different directions with his arsenal and still has plenty of time to figure it out. The sky’s the limit for the rookie.
2025 in a sentence: Early came out of nowhere and really impressed in a short cameo down the stretch.
Connelly Early started a do-or-die playoff game for the Red Sox last season. I didn’t even include him in last year’s starting pitching preview. I was a nervous wreck before the game, but prime Pedro could have been on the mound, and I still would have been nervous because there’s something wrong with me. The point is, Early was far from the source of my stress, which speaks to how rapid his ascent was.
Early’s debut was equally as impressive as Tolle’s, but it took place in Sacramento at 10 pm EST on a Tuesday, so responsible people were in bed. I was watching and went to bed with my expectations for Early shattered as he struck out 11 over five innings. A week later, he faced the same lineup in Fenway Park and allowed one run over 5.1 innings with a different plan of attack. In his first start, he didn’t throw a single sinker to a right-handed hitter. In the rematch, it accounted for 25% of his arsenal. That level of pitchability from a 23-year-old was surprising, to say the least.
Early faced 22 lefties over his four regular-season starts, surrendering hits to three, walking one, and striking out 13. He also hit one batter. He used a pretty standard approach, throwing sinkers inside and breaking balls away. His sweeper was particularly devastating to lefties, generating ten whiffs on 20 pitches. If there’s a knock on Early against lefties, it’s that he left his four-seam fastball over the plate too frequently. At 94 mph with seven feet of extension and a flat approach angle, he has some room for error, but good hitters will punish these mistakes should they persist.
Righties had more success, hitting .259 and striking out 28.1% of the time as opposed to the 59.1% lefties did, but they still only managed one extra-base hit against the lefty. Early used his four-seam against righties 33% of the time, and it was effective. The 61% strike rate was on the low side for a primary offering, but the 12.5% swinging strike rate and 25% ideal contact rate were each excellent. He was also able to spot first-pitch sliders on the glove side for early strikes. Ahead of righties, he turned to his curveball and changeup. Each pitch generated chases at a high rate, but it was the curveball that got more whiffs. His changeup was the pitch evaluators were most impressed by, but the out-of-zone contact rate was high at 76.5%. The pitch shows great velocity and movement separation from his fastball, so I’d expect that number to fall in a larger sample. A lefty with big extension, a good changeup, and multiple breaking balls he can throw in and out of the zone is basically the ideal pitcher. It’s only a four-game sample, with two games against the A’s, but it’s hard to be anything but excited about Early.
While all of the numbers are impressive, and Early passed the eye test, I do want to pump the brakes a little bit. The lefty has struck out hitters at every level, but he’s also walked them. He walked only four of the 79 hitters he faced in the majors (5.1%), but his much longer minor league career walk rate is 9.1%. The stuff is there, and his command looked refined in his late-season cameo, but don’t be surprised if there are some growing pains in year two.
CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - FEBRUARY 20: Kon Knueppel #7 of the Charlotte Hornets shoots the ball over Dean Wade #32 of the Cleveland Cavaliers during the second half of the basketball game at Spectrum Center on February 20, 2026 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Former Blue Devil Kon Knueppel passed Donovan Mitchell for the second-most threes made by a rookie in an NBA season with 185. Coincidentally, the three that pushed him past Donovan was made…over Donovan.
Keegan Murray holds the record with 206, set in 2023.
Charlotte has 25 regular season games left and Knueppel is averaging 3.4 threes per game. If he keeps that pace, he’ll shatter that record with 272-273 made threes.
He’s also averaging 18.8 points and 5.5 rebounds while shooting 43.2% on three-point attempts. The only players in NBA history to average at least 15 points and five rebounds per game while shooting over 40 percent from 3-point range were Larry Bird and Paul Pierce, which puts Knueppel in some pretty elite company – and he’s just a rookie!
1998, Flushing, NY, USA; FILE PHOTO; New York Mets pitcher John Franco in action on the mound at Shea Stadium during the 1998 season. Mandatory Credit: RVR Photos-Imagn Images
This post is part of a series of daily questions that we’ll ask the community here at Amazin’ Avenue throughout the month of February. We hope you find the questions engaging and that our prompts can spark some fun conversations in the comments. We’ll see you there and plan to have staff chiming in, too.
How do you feel about Steve Cohen not wanting a captain on the Mets?
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 19: Chase DeLauter #24 of the Cleveland Guardians poses for a portrait during photo day at Goodyear Ballpark on February 19, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We all know that Spring Training results don’t matter, but which players are you most interested in following until Opening Day?
Is it Chase DeLauter and his messianic outfield bat?
Is it Daniel Espino and his inspiring comeback story?
Is it Travis Bazzana and his attempt to justify the Guardians choosing him 1.1?
Is it one of the six starting pitchers competing for a role in the Opening Day rotation?
Is it Peyton Pallette and his Rule 5 selection?
Is it Stuart Fairchild, the Guardians one offseason outfield addition?
Is it David Fry coming back from getting TJ and then getting hit in the face?
Or, is it someone else? Let us know in the comments below!
We’re all coming around on the Brooklyn Nets’ 2025 NBA Draft, so widely mocked that the Phoenix Suns didn’t mind gasping at it on social media. The Nets themselves are probably feeling better about their draft too, if you believe last summer’s rumors that Brooklyn tried to trade one or two of their five first-round picks, but couldn’t find a suitor. Since then, Egor Demin hasn’t missed a three, and there have been flashes from the others too.
I know I feel a bit better about it, though it hasn’t been all smooth sailing. On January 23rd, I posted this: “32 rookies have taken 50+ two-pointers. Bottom three in 2P%: Danny Wolf, Egor Dëmin, Nolan Traore.”
For good measure, Wolf had the lowest 2P% among any NBA player 6’11” or taller, and Traore was tied for the lowest 2P% in the league. The case against the Flatbush Five was still very easy to make, and it wasn’t that they had redundantskillsets. That analysis was always lame.
Rather, Brooklyn drafted guys that struggled with either physicality, explosiveness, or both, and the one plus-athlete they did draft almost never handled the ball. That was a tough pill to swallow, particularly after watching the incredible physicality of last year’s playoffs. It’s a motor league.
It's a motor league.
-Speed and Distance -Depth for maintain 48min physical energy. -Sum of all ball-pressure by hand for detering pass/drive. -Bumping capability of both ends.
But two-thirds of the way through this season, none of Brooklyn’s selections look particularly egregious. I’m still concerned about their high-end outcomes — how much ball-handling will Egor Dëmin provide in a playoff setting? how much can Danny Wolf compensate for a lack of vertical pop around the rim? — but we’re not talking about high-end outcomes just yet.
Not every member of Brooklyn’s 2025 NBA Draft class will become a valuable rotation player. Some may never crack a playoff rotation. But all of them still have a chance. All of them have shown something to put faith in.
Egor Dëmin
This is most true for Egor Dëmin and his 3-point shooting. At BYU, he shot 27.3% from deep on 10 3PA per 100 possessions. Through 48 games in Brooklyn, he’s shooting 38.8% from deep on nearly 13 3PA per 100 possessions. This just doesn’t happen. It doesn’t make sense.
Yes, his stroke always looked better than those numbers did, and yes, he played through a knee injury at BYU, and yes, his pre-NCAA shooting numbers were better. It’s still unfathomable. Given his pre-draft profile, Dëmin may be in the midst of the most miraculous 3-point shooting season a rookie has ever put forth.
Get to know Dëmin, though, and it makes sense. The baby-faced Russian teenager will talk your ear off about his cat, or about English words he’s struggling to pronounce, or why roasting marshmallows around the campfire at BYU beats tapping the keg anywhere else, everything except his unprecedented shooting turnaround. Only then will Dëmin revert to a cliché, shrug his shoulders, and cite the work he’s put in. He really isn’t surprised by this.
It’s enough to warm a cynic’s cold heart, to believe that this cherubic sniper will take over the NBA with overwhelming levels of being dope, having fun, smiling, etc…
No rookie has changed their perception more than Dëmin through 50-something games. Sure, he makes a cool extra pass here and there and an intriguing kick-out with the snap of a wrist, but my man was getting Josh Giddey comparisons last summer. He is not a jumbo-handler, nor a primary ball-handler with excellent vision. Dëmin is a catch-and-shoot threat with everything else to work on, and while his worst games — when the shots don’t fall — are indeed worrisome, Nets fans don’t have to panic too much about that yet.
Look at this, man…
tough night vs OKC but Egor's shooting season is crazy
thinks about going to get the handoff, split-second decision to C&S instead, cashes it pic.twitter.com/xAE46P9XnM
Every live-game rep is valuable. And you can trust Dëmin, universally praised for his work ethic and attention to detail, to make the most of them. But in terms of analysis, we don’t need to see much more from him this season. Are there really going to be ball-handling/driving improvements before he spends much more time in the weight room over the next couple years?
At 6’9”, his block/steal/deflection rates are all average, giving him something of a defensive floor. He often guards opponents’ low-usage wings — against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday night, he started on Dean Wade.
I find his processing/playmaking to be most intriguing. The common refrain, for now, is that we don’t get to see his high-level passing much because he can’t get downhill, and while that’s partly true, it’s also an oversimplification. Dëmin has tossed some dimes as a spot-up guy, taking advantages of defenses rotating over to him — he loves looking off help defenders — but I think he’s also missed high-level opportunities. Ziaire Williams should probably have a layup here…
Dëmin has tossed just 54 rim assists in 1205 minutes, per PBP Stats, or one every 22.3 minutes. That matches, almost exactly … Cam Thomas. There’s no doubt Dëmin is a willing passer, particularly hungry to make kick-outs, but I’m most curious to see how his playmaking progress over the next season or two.
The Brooklyn Nets drafted a weird player at #8 overall, but that’s not an inherent negative. Egor Dëmin is a certified sniper and a powerfully optimistic young man. He scares the hell out of me sometimes, given how reliant he is on spot-up threes, but I’m rocking with him.
Nolan Traore
Nolan!! He was so bad early on. Teenage point guards are rarely productive, but it seemed like Traore was two years away from being two years away. On January 23rd, he was shooting 33.3% inside the arc. As I mentioned up top, that was tied with the minuscule Rob Dillingham for the worst mark in the league. Turns out my reverse jinx worked.
That night, he had the finest game of his career to date, putting up 21 points in that double OT loss to the Boston Celtics. With the necessary caveat that the stretch run before All-Star Weekend marks the true dog days of the NBA, Traore hasn’t looked back since.
The French teenager is 40-of-75 from two since January 23rd; he’s now shooting 44.4% on the season. At this rate, he could clear 50% by daylight savings time. What the hell happened?
First, Jordi Fernández gave him some tough love after a big loss to the Washington Wizards: “I need him to use his superpowers and touch the paint. It felt like he got caught shooting the unders. And a lot of times they’re going to go under because that’s what they want you to do. And if you keep shooting it, missing them, you know, sometimes if you keep doing the same thing and seeing the same results, I think that’s the definition of insanity … I’m okay with a pull-up three, [but] I don’t love it because he hasn’t shown that he can make it consistently.”
And here’s what that adjustment looks like for Traore…
Fernández is right: Per Synergy Sports, Traore is scoring just 0.79 points per off-the-dribble jumper, a 26th percentile mark league-wide. (Compare that to his 1.03 points per catch-and-shoot jumper, 38th percentile league-wide.)
But when Traore is using a screen, then a re-screen, then finding an angle to attack, you see his prodigious speed in action. Of course, he looks so much more comfortable than he did at season’s beginning, putting defenders in jail and getting to two feet to pivot around. His assist-to-turnover ratio is nearing 2:1, and those jump-stops in the lane are a big reason why.
Other than patience and poise, the big key for Traore is how far he can probe into the lane with a live-dribble. That was the most worrisome part of his prospect profile to me — here was a speedy, penetrating guard whose handle was suspect in tight spaces. Traore has done a much better job lately extending his dribble, though old habits still rear their ugly head from time to time. You can see the difference in these two plays:
Is Traore bendy/crafty enough to excel with his skinny frame? We’ll see. But this past month of play has been thrilling. Perhaps he’s not two years away from being two years away.
Drake Powell
I don’t really have a ton to say about Drake Powell because he doesn’t really do a ton on the court. He’s fallen below 15% usage, though that shouldn’t be a shock for a first-round pick with one of the lowest usage-rates of all time in his pre-draft year.
That by itself isn’t particularly worrying, though after some early season performances like his 15/3/3 game against the New York Knicks, where he moonlighted as lead ball-handler for the second unit, I thought we’d avoid Kris Dunn-level offensive responsibility. I mean, the flashes are there, including his 47% conversion rate on mid-range shots, per Cleaning the Glass…
Alas, the handle/processing is pretty far away from being able to shoulder any real offensive burden. Oh well.
I’m more concerned about Powell’s catch-and-shoot deficiencies: After scoring 1.18 points per shot on catch-and-shoot jumpers at UNC, he’s down to 0.87 points per possession (16th percentile) in the pros. Small sample, rookie year, I get it. But if defenses don’t feel the need to close out to Powell, it gets a little spooky.
Not to pile on, but the defensive creation hasn’t been there either. Low block/steal rates, and he’s tied with Danny Wolf and Michael Porter Jr. in deflections per minute, toward the bottom of the team. The rebounding numbers are low, too. So right now, the question is simply: What does Drake Powell do?
I don’t know yet. He probably needs to put on some real muscle this summer and next, but before then, Powell can keep taking advantage of Brooklyn’s increased pace. The Nets are no longer one of the slowest, fastbreak-avoidant teams in the league, and that should grant Powell more opportunity to explore.
Thanks to his archetype, raw athleticism, and flashes of on-ball defense, coaches and front offices will keep giving him the benefit of the doubt. That includes Jordi Fernández. But over the final third of this season, I’d like to see one consistent skill from Powell, whatever that may be.
Danny Wolf
Danny Wolf is no longer shooting the lowest 2-point% of any player 6’11” or taller, minimum 50 attempts. Hooray! (That’s because, since January 23rd, Christian Koloko and Hansen Yang have qualified. Wolf hasn’t passed anybody.)
Wolf had a couple strong games against a couple really bad teams before All-Star Weekend, where Fernández put the ball in his hands a bit more. He opened up about the experience: “The last month, two months, it’s a lot of learning. I was playing off the ball, and for me, it’s just like, I felt a little bit too sped up. But there’s gonna be games where that’s my role. And then when coach does give me the ball and trusts me with it, it’s on me to make the right play. I think for me, it was just — I know I’m a work in progress, especially off the ball.”
Wolf will have to make 3-point shots; only time will tell if he’s capable. But now that he’s not shooting 50% from three anymore, like he was when he burst onto the scene, it’s been pretty rough going on offense. Some of it certainly is being too sped up — you can see it when he tries to dribble through a crowd — but so much of it is a lack of vertical pop.
He gets fouled here, but at 6’11” with a full head of steam and taking off from the restricted area, you gotta try and dunk this or something…
So yeah, I’m pretty worried about his scoring profile. Not much else to say there.
That being said, Wolf’s defense in isolation has been a pleasant surprise of his rookie year. Anytime a (non-Jimmy Butler) player tries to size him up, it typically does more to stunt the offense rather than truly expose Wolf. Considering his above-average block/rebound numbers in a beefy front-court next to Day’Ron Sharpe, I’d say that end of the floor has been a positive in his rookie year.
Elsewhere, his assist:turnover ratio is also nearing 2:1, and as we saw at Michigan, many of his best passes go to Day’Ron Sharpe or Nic Claxton as pick-and-roll lobs or dump-offs around the rim. Given his 3-point heavy shot diet and particular passing strengths, I think it’s safe to say the Nets have a position in mind for him going forward.
Over the final third of the season, I’d love to see Wolf either sweep his arms through the lane and draw some more fouls á la Noah Clowney, use more deceleration driving to the rim, or get to two feet and create more kick-out opportunities.
Alas, Danny Wolf has to score to reach his high-end outcome. That’s his sell. Bully little guys and embarrass the oafs. The defensive flashes and occasional spot-up three (though he needs to improve his %s there) are cool, but let’s hope to see some more reliable finishing over this final third of the season.
Ben Saraf
Ben Saraf may be the true dud of the bunch, but it’s too early to be sure. He was picked #26 overall, and has struggled with both Long Island in the G League and with the Brooklyn Nets. However, he did just go for 18/6/8 in Long Island’s most recent game.
Saraf is shooting just 25% from deep with the big league club, and the stroke doesn’t look great either, though he’s in the mid-30s with Long Island. Either way, it’s an incredibly small sample that’s tough to draw conclusions from, but of all Brooklyn’s rookies, Saraf is the one who desperately needs to show some shooting improvement next season, if not right now.
He’s simply lacking confidence, especially when he’s up with Brooklyn. Perhaps this G League stint will do him well, as it did Traore before him, but right now, he’s not showcasing his strengths. Saraf’s drives are wayward; he was never the most explosive athlete, but he had more counters than this…
Where’s the behind-the-back, the spin, the jump-stop and pivot? Watch a couple highlights of Saraf as a prospect, and you’ll know it’s in there somewhere. He might not be an NBA-level scorer — Saraf is shooting just 38.7% from the floor in the G League, despite nailing some threes — but he’s gotta die trying.
Hey, eight assists per 100 possessions ain’t so bad.
Alright, maybe I’m not as high on this rookie class as I thought I was.
It’s still early, though. And Egor Dëmin has stones no spreadsheet can quantify; just look at the end of that Orlando Magic game. And Nolan Traore is improving, while Drake Powell just threw down a huge dunk…
Since I harped on his 2-point scoring here, Danny Wolf will probably just 10-of-10 next game out, same for Saraf.
The Flatbush Five are entering the home stretch of their rookie season. They may not save the Brooklyn Nets in one fell swoop, but such a drastic rebuild was never going to be easy. Plus, you can’t discount how they might improve playing next to the blue-chip talent the Nets hope to add in the 2026 NBA Draft…but it’s too early to talk about that.
For now, Egor Dëmin, Nolan Traore, Drake Powell, Ben Saraf, and Danny Wolf are all just trying to make it work. Their next opportunity to show out comes on Sunday afternoon as the Brooklyn Nets face the Atlanta Hawks with tip-off scheduled for 3:30 p.m.
Feb 11, 2026; Clearwater, FL, USA;Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) runs a drill during spring training during spring training at BareCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images | Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images
Today is the day. There will be actual baseball on our TV screens (if you’re lucky enough) and we can commiserate together on what the team’s 47th ranked relief prospect looks like in the 8th inning of a spring training game.
CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 02: Logan Allen #26 of the Cleveland Guardians reacts to the camera prior to Game Three of the American League Wild Card Series between the Detroit Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on Thursday, October 2, 2025 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Grace Hoppel/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
After roughly four months of no Guardians baseball, we will now gorge ourselves on two Cleveland spring training games today.
Logan Allen will pitch an inning or two against the Reds and Chase Burns at 3:05PM ET and Joey Cantillo will do the same against Garrett Stallings and the Brewers at 3:10PM ET in split-squad action. We will be doing Spring Training game threads this year so you can discuss both games together here starting at 3PM ET. You can listen to the Guardians-Reds game on Guardians’ radio.
Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Travis Bazzana joined Rosey on Guardians’ Weekly.
Angels’ owner Arte Moreno told the public that winning isn’t one of the top five things Angels fans care about, as fan surveys indicate. Reminds me of “Fan surveys indicate fans want GuardsFest every three years, not annually.” Just lies and gaslighting.
JUPITER, FL - MARCH 14: JJ Wetherholt #7 of the St. Louis Cardinals is seen in the dugout during the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Miami Marlins at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on Friday, March 14, 2025 in Jupiter, Florida. (Photo by Jared Blais/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Baseball is back! Spring training opening day has arrived for the Cardinals, which is the perfect time to suspend reality and indulge ourselves in some good old-fashioned optimism. Expectations for the team are at an all-time (or at least this century) low. It is easy for national media types and casual fans to look at the Brendan Donovan, Sonny Gray, and Willson Contreras trades and mentally bucket the Cardinals into a rebuilding tier with the Nationals and Angels, or even the White Sox and Rockies as teams that aren’t trying this year. The Cardinals do not belong in that group. This perception of the team has the Cardinals perfectly positioned to shock the baseball world with a few lucky breaks in 2026.
What would constitute shocking the baseball world? Let’s keep it simple and set our eyes on making the playoffs. For a refresher, here are the wins required to make the playoffs since the three-team wild card era began in 2022.
Every team to win 90+ games over the last four seasons has wound up playing October baseball. Arizona won 89 games in 2024 but lost the tiebreaker to the 89-win Braves and Mets. Cincinnati last year is the lone 83-win team to win a wild card spot since 2022. Ten of the 14 teams to win between 84 and 88 games have made the playoffs. Most projections have the Cardinals win total close to the mid-70s (PECOTA notwithstanding), so let’s keep it simple and say that overachieving by about 10 wins will put the Cardinals in a prime position to grab a spot in the postseason tournament.
What Does a Lucky Cardinals Team Look Like?
Before we get into the fantasy portion of today’s proceedings, I wanted to look at how much hope we should have just based on luck. As we are all acutely aware, random variance, unquantifiable dynamics, and supernatural intervention play a huge role every season. The best high-level statistic we have to understand team quality is Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR is set to 1,000 across baseball each year, so a .500 team would be expected to accrue 33.3 WAR. Conveniently enough, last season, the Cardinals team WAR was 30.4, three less than an average team, which tied out exactly to their 78-win total.
The table below outlines how often, since 2001, teams have over and underperformed their “deserved” win total based on team WAR.
*2020 excluded
68% of the time, a team’s win total has been within five wins in either direction of their expected win total based on WAR. The Cubs have had the single biggest underperforming season winning 67 games in 2002 with a roster led by Sammy Sosa, Matt Clement, and Kerry Wood that produced WAR to support an 82-win team. On the other end of the spectrum, the 2016 Rangers overperformed by 18 wins on the way to a 95-win season.
If the Cardinals are a true talent 75-win team, they should have around a 3% chance of winning 85+ games just based on normal baseball chaos. If you think they are closer to an 80-win team, the chances of random variance increase their odds of winning 85+ games to 16%. As a quick aside, here are the Cardinals over/underperformances over the last 25 years.
The Cardinals’ 50-win overperformance is second in baseball to the Angels at 71 over this timeframe. The Cubs are tied for last at 57 actual wins less than their deserved WAR wins.
What Does a Good Cardinals Team Look Like?
What do the Cardinals look like if they are a legitimately good team in 2026? Every player overperforming or improving by 15% would do the trick… So would Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman combining for 80 home runs and getting MVP votes. These scenarios are too boring and too unlikely, respectively, to spend too much time thinking about. What are some slightly more plausible scenarios that could lead to a summer of competitive baseball? The following aren’t predictions but my best guesses as to what the primary catalyst will be if we find the Cardinals competing for the postseason this September.
In each scenario, I am assuming the rest of the team plays generally as expected.
Scenario 1 – Starting Rotation has the Right Stuff+
Stuff+, a metric that measures a pitcher’s effectiveness based on velocity, movement, release point, etc., ranked the Cardinals starters second to last in baseball at 93 in 2025. Chaim Bloom’s general approach to the pitching staff seems to be geared specifically toward improving this metric. In 2026, Dustin May puts it all together and has a true breakout season. His career Stuff+ is 111, which would have ranked tied for fourth among qualified starters last season. Kyle Leahy continues his trend of improving every year and bursts onto the scene with above average stuff and command to take over as the undisputed number 2 starter behind May. Richard Fitts (103 Stuff+) and Hunter Dobbins (98) replace the abysmal Miles Mikolas (89) and Erick Fedde (91) innings with breakout seasons, combining for 5-6 WAR between them. Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore build on solid 2025 seasons and complete one of the deepest rotations in baseball.
Scenario 2 – Mini MV3
Masyn Winn, JJ Wetherholt, and Ivan Herrera are the best projected players on the position player side of things with a combined 8.5 projected WAR (ZiPS). That is not going to cut it in this version of reality. Winn combines his 2025 defense with a mini offensive breakout to put up 5.5 WAR. Ivan Herrera sticks at catcher while getting plenty of DH at-bats and delivers a 5 WAR season. JJ Wetherholt hits his stride early and often, getting to 4.5 WAR en route to the NL Rookie of the Year award.
Scenario 3 – The Outfield is Really Good
Even the most optimistic current projection system sees the Cardinals as having a bottom 5-10 outfield in baseball. Lars Nootbaar comes back more quickly than expected with his fresh heels and makes his dwindling believers look smart with a 4.5 WAR season. Victor Scott II quietly makes incremental gains in every aspect of his game while getting 600 plate appearances and puts up 3.5 WAR in center field. In right field, Jordan Walker improves to closer to replacement level, but with the Cardinals off to an excellent start, he is replaced as the primary right fielder by Joshua Baez. Baez goes on to hit 26 home runs and challenges Wetherholt for the Rookie of the Year award.
Scenario 4 – Prospects Arrive Early and Often
Quinn Mathews and Joshua Baez make their big league debuts surprisingly early and help keep the Cardinals within shouting distance of the wild card through June. As the deadline approaches and the Cardinals are a few games under .500, Chaim Bloom stays true to his steely-eyed vision and trades Dustin May, Lars Nootbaar, and Jojo Romero. Tink Hence and Cooper Hjerpe are called up to fill innings and immediately supercharge the pitching staff with strikeouts. As September approaches and the Cardinals climb to ten games over .500, the gloves come off with a series of prospect promotions starting with Liam Doyle and finishing with Brandon Clarke and Jurrangelo Cijntje. This scenario sounds the craziest when you try to pick the actual names, but swap any of them out for Blaze Jordan, Chen-Wei Lin, Leonardo Bernal, Ixan Henderson, Luis Gastelum, or any of the deep list of prospects expected to start in Double-A or Triple-A.
Which of these scenarios, or combination of scenarios, do you think is most likely? Is there another you could see being the catalyst to a surprising season? Let’s play ball.
Jon Rahm’s Ryder Cup future is in serious doubt after the Spaniard failed to join his teammate Tyrrell Hatton in settling a dispute over a seven-figure fine with the European Tour Group over participation in LIV Golf.
Hatton is one of eight golfers who have agreed to settle all outstanding fines due in Europe and withdraw any appeals in return for releases to play on LIV tournaments in 2026. Luke Donald, who is expected to remain in office for a third stint as Europe’s Ryder Cup captain, wanted the situation with Hatton and Rahm resolved. Donald has only partly got his wish, with Adare Manor in 2027 looming ever closer.
Nov 16, 2025; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Sacramento Kings guard DeMar DeRozan (10) dribbles against San Antonio Spurs forward Carter Bryant (11) in the first half at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images
The post-trade deadline time can be a strange one in the NBA. The teams that didn’t make many moves are trying to get ready for the playoffs, hoping to peak at the right time. The ones that shook things up are looking to rediscover an identity or form one for the first time. And then some franchises want the season to mercifully end, like the Kings.
Sacramento came into the season with play-in hopes, loaded up with veterans and a few young pieces. To say that they fell short of expectations would be an understatement. The Kings are last in the West, and unlike other bottom-dwellers, they find themselves there despite trying to win.
At least they were earlier in the season. After the deadline, they shut down Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine, and deadline acquisition De’Andre Hunter, as they all underwent season-ending surgeries. One of their feel-good stories of the season was the emergence of rookie Dylan Cardwell, but he will be out for a month. Russell Westbrook and DeMar DeRozan are still there, but those two couldn’t do much in Sacramento’s 37-point loss to the Magic on Thursday. They have some interesting young players that they need to develop the rest of the way, but no one who stands out as a cornerstone. The lottery can’t come soon enough for De’Aaron Fox’s previous team.
The Spurs are in a completely different situation. They have exceeded expectations and have the second-best record in the West, with a realistic chance to catch up to the injury-riddled Thunder. They did nothing at the deadline, so the chemistry they built remains intact, as shown in their convincing victory over the Suns after the All-Star break. All their rotation players are healthy and should be well-rested after not needing to be on the floor for heavy minutes to dispatch Phoenix in their first Austin game. And they looked locked in from the start and dominant the entire night, proving they are hungry as they prepare for the franchise’s return to the playoffs.
Late February and March basketball offers matchups between teams that have opposite goals and realities. The Spurs should prevail easily against a Kings team that wouldn’t mind another loss to keep the other tankers at bay. But there’s a reason they play the games, so San Antonio should come out focused and take care of business.
Spurs Injuries: Mason Plumlee – Out (Conditioning), Lindy Waters III – Questionable (Knee).
Kings Injuries: Domantas Sabonis – Out (Knee surgery), Zach LaVine – Out (Hand surgery), Dylan Cartwell – Out (Ankle), De’Andre Hunter – Out (Eye).
What to watch for:
The battle of the French centers. With Sabonis out, rookie Maxime Raynaud has been starting for the Kings and putting up some solid numbers. The big man has averaged 117 points and 8.4 boards when he’s been on the floor at tip-off, and in his last five games, he’s averaged 14.2 points and 9.8 boards. Wembanyama should dominate the matchup, but it should be fun to see him go against a talented 7’1 center who happens to be his friend.
The Spurs, finding their killer instinct. One of the few disappointing things about this iteration of the Silver and Black has been the team’s propensity to play down to its competition, resulting in too many close games. Against the Suns, that wasn’t an issue, as they started well and never relented on their way to an easy win. The same should happen against the lowly Kings, as the talent disparity is massive. Blowing out inferior or shorthanded teams not only allows for less wear-and-tear but is also typically a sign of a mature group. Let’s see if the young Spurs are making progress there.
Former Spurs vs. Former Kings. De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes combined for 48 points in the first matchup with his former team this season. Fox also had 11 assists. DeMar DeRozan had 27 in just 15 shots in the losing effort, and Drew Eubanks played 11 minutes off the bench. The former Spurs and the former Kings could once again play a part in determining the winner. DeRozan would need to fuel the offense for Sacramento to have a chance, and Eubanks would need to provide solid minutes against Wembanyama. For San Antonio, Fox’s scoring and Barnes’ shooting are not as necessary, but always welcomed. And if things get out of hand, we might even get to see Doug McDermott in garbage time.
If you’d like to, you may follow along with the game on our Twitter profile (@poundingtherock) or visit our Game Thread!
FORT MYERS, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 29: Jordan Montgomery #47 of the New York Yankees delivers a pitch against the Boston Red Sox during a Grapefruit League spring training game at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on February 29, 2020 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Spring games are underway, and the Yankees will take the field with the majority of their full squad for the first time this year. It won’t be for long, of course, but those first couple of innings broadcasting on YES are bound to bring some serotonin with them. With that comes the caveat that backups will take their place shortly thereafter, with sprinklings of prospects getting a look here and there. On the road it’ll be even more sparse to see the starters, as the season opener showcased, which begs the question: just how much of spring actually catches your attention?
For most, spring is a ball of excitement for a couple of days and then the monotony sets in and pleas are made to fast forward time just a little bit to get to games that matter. It’s hard to invest totally into exhibitions even for the most plugged-in and invested fans when the stats won’t matter, the results are skewed by varying talent levels on a given day’s roster, and most players are working more on timings and pitch adaptations than trying their hardest to win.
For some, this is part of the fun of it all — baseball is a marathon, not a sprint, and the contributions of guys slotted to start in Double-A at the start of the year can be surprisingly consequential depending on if things go really well for them or really, really bad for the big leaguers. Getting to see guys that won’t get the spotlight right away can be a breath of fresh air, and there’s always a name or two that catches people’s eyes with a highlight spring even though they’re nowhere near the majors yet. Building the hype early can lead to an enormous payoff in a year or two when the same kid comes back to camp ready to take on a role at the highest level.
There’s even a few who won’t care at all about spring — until the Yankees are playing in the Bronx, it just doesn’t matter to ‘em. What camp do you fall in, and what’s your reasoning for it? Personally, I’m always at least a little invested throughout spring, as it can lead to guys like Jordan Montgomery turning enough heads to take a rotation spot when they were far down on the depth chart to open camp. It’s harder to see splashes like that with a roster like this year’s team, but there’ll be a dark horse somewhere, I’m sure of it.
We’ve got just a couple of things to note before we get ready for the Yankees’ spring home opener. Nolan takes a look at Elmer Rodriguez’s promising start in the Grapefruit League season opener after the top pitching prospect tossed three scoreless innings, and then Nick wishes a happy birthday to a Yankee that came up for a brief stint with the 1990 Yankees and delivered a shot of adrenaline to a down-on-their luck team: Oscar Azócar.
