Draft season is here, and that means you’re on the clock (not literally, don’t panic). People say you can’t win or lose your draft in the first round. I disagree. This is how I think every pick can take down your league or take down your team. The players are listed in order of DraftKings ADP.
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Jahmyr Gibbs
⇒ Boom Scenario
If we’re ever going to get a new Christian McCaffrey, it will be via Jahmyr Gibbs. The superstar runner was targeted on 24 percent of his routes last year and averaged 1.6 yards per route, both of which ranked top-five among all running backs and were neck and neck with CMC. As a runner, Gibbs has averaged over five YPC with at least 240 attempts in back-to-back seasons. In 2024, Gibbs averaged 32.6 PPR points per game in three games without Montgomery.
Montgomery is out of the picture now and his replacement, Isiah Pacheco, is currently dealing with a back injury that has his Week 1 status in jeopardy. The Lions could load up football’s most efficient running back with a sickening number of touches. If they do, we’re looking at an RB1 overall season and the some.
⇒ Bust Scenario
Gibbs was still incredibly efficient on the ground last year, but he notably dropped from 5.6 YPC to a career-low 5.0. He lost roughly .4 yards before contact and .3 yards after contact. It shouldn’t come as a surprise given that the team lost OC Ben Johnson and multiple starting offensive linemen. The Lions are again facing turnover in the trenches and on the sidelines. Drew Petzing will now call the plays. During Petzing’s three years in Arizona, his average finish by points scored was 20th. He wasn’t coaching elite teams, but his track record doesn’t inspire confidence. It would not be surprising for the Lions' run game and offense as a whole to take another step back, which could be particularly painful for Gibbs, who has thrived in Detroit’s elite offensive environment.
Verdict
This was one of my weaker “Bust Scenario” writeups, as it should be with the 1.01. I think Gibbs could underwhelm fantasy managers, but I don’t think he can truly bust. And his ceiling is matched only by McCaffrey. If Gibbs is on the board, you take him.
Bijan Robinson
⇒ Boom Scenario
Like Gibbs, we got the big hit with Robinson last year. Fantasy managers will be thrilled if he simply runs back his 2025 stat line. There is, however, more juice to be squeezed out of Robinson’s fantasy outlook. Robinson ceded 143 carries and 14 catches to Tyler Allgeier last year. That’s not an absurd number for a backup, but where he got those carries matters much more than the raw number. Allgeier ran 31 times in the red zone and seven times at the goal line. Robinson had 32 and seven such attempts. Robinson ultimately gave away 40 expected fantasy points and 50.6 actual PPR points in the red zone. For reference, Woody Marks lost 21 fantasy points in the red zone to his backups. Woody Marks. Allgeier’s red zone usage was the difference between Robinson being a great pick and him challenging CMC for the RB1 overall crown. Allgeier is now gone and replaced by Brian Robinson Jr., who was out-carried 71-10 by CMC in the red zone last year. That’s the type of split that will get Bijan to the top of the running back rankings.
⇒ Bust Scenario
Robinson thrived in a subpar offensive environment last year by racking up more targets, catches, and yards than any running back not named McCaffrey. His pass-catching numbers were juiced by a historic number of wide receiver routes. Robinson ran 157 routes from the slot or out wide and caught 40 passes from those alignments. It was the fourth-most receiver routes for a running back over the past decade and the second-most receptions. Robinson was targeted on 32 percent of his wide receiver routes compared to 17 percent of his backfield routes.
With Kevin Stefanski on the headset, there’s no guarantee Robinson is nearly as involved in the passing game. The Browns last year had just 63 receiver routes from all of their running backs combined. In general, Stefanski has not been all that interested in throwing to his running backs. In his six years as Cleveland’s head coach, the team finished above-average in total running back targets just once. Atlanta has the sixth-lowest win total of the season. They will be losing more often than not. If Stefanski isn’t committed to keeping Robinson as a focal point of the passing game, Robinson could slide down the RB ranks.
Verdict
The “Bust Scenario” is functionally a path for Robinson to finish just outside the top five players at his position. That’s still an awfully impressive floor. Robinson is a perfectly fine 1.02 pick, though I’m thrilled on the rare occasion when the 1.01 drafter takes him over Gibbs.
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Ja’Marr Chase
⇒ Boom Scenario
It’s fairly easy to simply point to 2024, when Chase earned the wide receiver triple crown with a 127-1,708-17 receiving line, as the boom scenario. That is obviously the outcome we are looking for here, so I’ll just talk about what made that possible. The Bengals’ defense allowed the eighth-most points and ranked 27th in EPA per play. Their offense passed at a rate 8.4 percent above expected. Only the Chiefs have topped that mark in a single season over the past five years. Even if the defense improves with some key offseason additions, this doesn’t profile as an above-average unit. Their PROE dropped last year, but that could easily have been a response to Joe Burrow’s turf toe injury. As long as the pass rate rebounds, Chase will be fighting for the WR1 crown again.
⇒ Bust Scenario
If the Bengals wind up sticking with their 2025 PROE, they’ll need to find some extra passing efficiency somewhere. Throughout the offseason, it has sounded like that plan involves going under center more, which likely coincides with more play-action. Those are not things Burrow does particularly well. Over the past three years, Burrow ranks 29th out of 35 quarterbacks in YPA from under center (6.7) and 31st in YPA on play-action throws (7.1).
Burrow and the Bengals aren’t going to bottom out this year, but they could lose some play volume while the efficiency also stalls due to a changing offensive approach. That may only cost Chase a few hundred yards over the course of a season, but that’s the difference between a WR1 overall season and a Silent Killer scenario.
Verdict
Take Chase at the 1.03, next question.
Puka Nacua
⇒ Boom Scenario
Nacua finished as the WR1 overall last year and there’s still another level for him to reach. He left Week 1 for a concussion evaluation. Later in Week 6, he injured his ankle, did not return, and missed the following game. In his Week 9 return, Nacua suffered a rib injury that knocked him out for roughly a half and limited his snap counts over the next two weeks. All in, he managed a measly 80 percent route rate on the year. He was at 89 percent as a rookie, his healthiest season, and Ja’Marr Chase routinely clears 95 percent. Nacua plays a rugged style of football that probably isn’t conducive to running all of the routes, but 90 percent is within reach and would still keep him outside the top 20 wideouts in route rate. If Nacua scaled his elite per-route numbers up to a 90 percent route rate over 17 games, he would have caught 149 passes for 2,050 yards last year.
That math is a little bit too neat to be realistic. Typically, more routes equals less efficiency. But I do think Nacua could challenge both the receptions and yardage records in a healthy season. A few extra points from his rushing numbers and he could post the best fantasy season of all time.
⇒ Bust Scenario
In reality, Nacua is unlikely to sustain his 3.6 yards per route from 2025. No receiver has two such seasons over the past 20 years. Only a handful of players even have one season over 3.0 YPRR. His efficiency is going to come down, but the team’s passing volume could also take a hit. The Rams began the season as a defensive juggernaut, but slowly dwindled to an average unit. They ranked 15th in EPA per play allowed from Week 12 to the end of the regular season. Unsurprisingly, as their defense struggled, the offense took center stage and pushed Nacua’s fantasy output into orbit. Nacua averaged 124 yards per game—a 2,100-yard pace over 17 contests—during their defensive downturn.
The Rams traded a first-round pick for Chiefs corner Trent McDuffie, a move that would define the offseason of most teams. Instead, that transaction pales in comparison to their addition of Myles Garrett. Aaron Donald might even be back. If LA puts together a top-five defense, Nacua could look more like Nico Collins than Randy Moss. He is also facing a potential suspension for off-field incidents and is banged up with a groin injury.
Verdict
Last year, leaning on how players win versus how they fail led me to draft loads of Christian McCaffrey and Puka Nacua, two of the players who defined the fantasy season. If we get news that Nacua is healthy and won’t be suspended before the start of the season, I’ll start drafting him at the 1.02.
The top players for 2026 at running back, wide receiver, quarterback, and tight end with explanations for every rank.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba
⇒ Boom Scenario
No team allowed fewer points than Seattle. The last time a team led the league in points allowed in back-to-back seasons was over a decade ago. Fittingly, the Legion of Boom Seahawks were that team. That is to say, it’s extremely hard to maintain an unstoppable defense year over year. Seattle was the seventh-most run-heavy team in the NFL when they were up by more than one possession. They found themselves in this situation more than any other team. The Seahawks remained balanced when the game was within one score, though they weren’t quite as run-heavy, ranking 20th in neutral-situation pass rate. They were in neutral game script for the 10th-fewest plays. Seattle ran their entire offense through JSN and they are all but guaranteed to play more offensive snaps in total than they did last year. JSN could lose efficiency and still increase his production via an increase in passing volume.
⇒ Bust Scenario
This is the first pick where I clearly see the risk of a down year. Seattle lost OC Klint Kubiak to the Vegas head coaching job, and Kubiak was integral to the team’s success. He was the mastermind behind Seattle’s push to the forefront of offensive strategy. The Seahawks were a run-first offense, but they used their ground game (and elite defense) to create incredibly advantageous passing spots. This stylistic shift did wonders for JSN. He posted 707 yards on play-action attempts, 1,006 yards on passing plays with a receiver in motion, and 670 yards from 12-personnel alignments. Those numbers rank fourth, sixth, and first over the past decade. Tyreek Hill’s two best seasons in Miami are closely comparable to JSN’s 2025 season. Hill played with prime Patrick Mahomes, and his best seasons came with Tua Tagovailoa. That’s because he found a coach in Mike McDaniel whose calling in life was creating fantasy value for his WR1. Even as the focal point of Seattle’s offense, JSN’s numbers could take a serious hit if new OC Brian Fleury can’t replicate Kubiak’s offense.
Verdict
JSN nearly finished as the WR1 overall last year and is going in the middle of the first round. He’s not a clear fade, though I don’t see him as a target either. I have been mixing in Christian McCaffrey over him on occasion, leaving me underweight Smith-Njigba.
Christian McCaffrey
⇒ Boom Scenario
Jordan James and Kaelon Black have both missed ample time during training camp. Ricky Pearsall is done for the year, Mike Evans can’t stay healthy, and George Kittle is coming off a torn Achilles at the age of 33 (in October). Even Christian Kirk is apparently a candidate to go on injured reserve to start the year. This is a San Francisco offense that is perennially efficient and productive, but is without many healthy bodies at every skill position. McCaffrey’s 401.8 expected fantasy points last year were tied to the tenth decimal place for the most expected points by a running back in the past 25 years. Who were they tied with, you ask? Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, in 2019. McCaffrey can afford to take a step back and still run circles around the rest of the league in terms of fantasy production. The 49ers are setting him up to do exactly that in 2026.
⇒ Bust Scenario
The downfall of McCaffrey is fairly easy to see. CMC looked cooked as a runner in 2025. He ranked bottom-five in success rate and rush yards over expected per attempt. McCaffrey was 36th in yards after contact per carry. Alvin Kamara finished the 2020 season as the RB1 overall. He averaged -.59 RYOE per attempt in the following season—nearly identical to McCaffrey’s -.54 mark from last year—and his rushing efficiency never rebounded. Kamara still posted a handful of top-12 finishes over the following season, but he was never the same. Todd Gurley’s end was more abrupt. He was the RB1 by points per game in back-to-back seasons and was out of the league in three years. Gurley also experienced a calamitous efficiency dropoff when the end was near. Whether it’s a slow downward spiral or a cliff, the end comes for every running back, and the signs are there for CMC.
Verdict
I don’t care. CMC might be washed. He will be a tremendously bad pick in one of the upcoming seasons. It could happen this year. Until it does, McCaffrey will continue to put up absurd fantasy numbers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
⇒ Boom Scenario
I like to come up with a specific set of circumstances that need to occur for the true ceiling season. With St. Brown, there isn’t one domino that needs to fall to vault him past Nacua, JSN, and Chase. If that does happen, it’s likely a lot of small changes that add up to a WR1 overall season. The question is if he is capable of that as a talent. I’ll say it’s at least possible. Over the past three years, St. Brown ranks fourth in yards per route run (2.4) and sixth in targets per route (.27). Those numbers are identical to 2023’s WR1, CeeDee Lamb. When looking back at that season, I assumed Lamb put up monster counting stats in the midst of one of Dallas’s many defensive meltdowns. The 2023 season was actually their best by points allowed since 2016. The lesson here is that sometimes things just work out for truly great players, even if I can’t describe to you exactly what that might look like.
⇒ Bust Scenario
I covered the Lions’ offensive concerns between their line and middling coordinator hire, so here I will simply make the case for why St. Brown won’t contend with the league’s truly elite wideouts. Over the past three years, St. Brown ranks 32nd in YAC per catch and 100th in aDOT. Lamb, for reference, is one spot higher in YAC and over 20 spots higher in aDOT. Nacua’s target depth is comparable to St. Brown’s, but he’s one of the league’s best receivers with the ball in his hands. It’s very difficult to put up a 1,700-yard season when you don’t win downfield at a high rate and can’t produce YAC at an elite level.
Verdict
ARSB is one of the comfiest clicks on the board because he has been so consistent over the years. I also struggled to see how he reaches a level where we are taking him with a top-three pick next year. I have been taking him after Jonathan Taylor, meaning I get less St. Brown than your average drafter, but not none.
Jonathan Taylor
⇒ Boom Scenario
The Taylor faders were getting hit with the boom scenario for nearly three months before Daniel Jones got injured. Dimes suffered a fibula late in Week 12. Up to that point, Taylor was averaging a staggering 25.7 PPR points per game.
That would have been a top-10 all-time fantasy season. He went from 5.9 yards per carry pre-injury to 3.3 after Jones got banged up. Taylor doesn’t need to get all the way back to that historic form to pay off his current ADP. If he comes anywhere close, a pick in the back half of the first round will look silly.
⇒ Bust Scenario
Taylor is an incredible running back, but his life was made much easier by the Colts forcing defenses to respect their passing game. No running back saw more carries against defensive fronts with seven or fewer players in the box than Taylor. He turned 228 such carries into 1,202 yards and six scores, all three of which led all running backs. That is the third-most carries against normal and light boxes in the past decade. The Colts’ offense was a finely tuned machine that turned plays into Jonathan Taylor fantasy points. Alec Pierce pulled defenders away from the line of scrimmage with his deep routes and Daniel Jones made that threat real by connecting with Pierce for over 1,000 yards. It was the only 1,000-yard season from a player with an aDOT over 20 in at least the past two decades.
Now Jones is coming off a torn Achilles—an injury that all but ended the careers of Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins—and Pierce is still recovering from offseason ankle surgery. Pierce just returned to practice, but his Week 1 status remains in doubt. Their injuries could ultimately tank the offense in a way that crushes Taylor’s efficiency.
Verdict
Pierce’s injury is legitimately concerning, but Jones has reportedly looked good in camp. It might hurt Taylor to not have a healthy Pierce on the field for some of the season, but an effective quarterback alone should keep defenses honest. As previously mentioned, I tend to side with him over St. Brown.
James Cook
⇒ Boom Scenario
Cook finished the 2025 season as the 11th-overall FLEX player and goes in a similar range in drafts this year. The big change he needs to crack the top five is more receiving production. Cook peaked at 44 catches back in 2023 and has been held well under 40 ever since. Cook has never run even half of the available routes in the Buffalo offense, but his receiving efficiency is generally solid, with four straight seasons above one yard per route. Getting Cook more involved through the air has also been a talking point this offseason. ESPN’s Alaina Getzenberg reported early in training camp that Buffalo’s running backs have been “noticeably more involved as pass catchers.” Ty Johnson, who accounted for 36 percent of the Bills' routes and seven percent of their targets last year, is currently injured, further clearing a path for Cook to see more work through the air.
⇒ Bust Scenario
I find it hard to believe Cook will do much more in the passing game this year. The Bills added receiver talent by way of DJ Moore, and Cook’s receiving efficiency is good, but not at a level that makes you think his coaches have no choice but to get him more involved. The bigger issue for Cook could be touchdown regression. Cook scored 14 touchdowns in total, a dozen on the ground and two more through the air. He had an expected touchdown total of 10.1, giving him the fourth-biggest scoring differential among running backs. Cook was infamous for failing to find the end zone through two years of his career. That narrative has flipped, but he could slide back a step in 2026. If he doesn’t improve his role as a receiver, Cook will fail to meet first-round expectations.
Verdict
The bust scenario isn’t that bad. Cook is a talented between-the-tackles runner who sees most of his team’s running back carries. It’s the boom scenario I’m worried about. Cook has never shown a high-end receiving profile dating back to his college days. I’m fine taking Cook at the 1-2 turn, but it’s hard to justify a top-10 pick on him.
CeeDee Lamb
⇒ Boom Scenario
George Pickens was a great addition for the Dallas offense and may have capped Lamb’s ceiling last year, but there’s no guarantee he does the same in 2026. Pickens is on the franchise tag and might be playing in a new uniform next season. Lamb, meanwhile, will be under contract for two years beyond the upcoming season. He got banged up last year and the team had a 1A and 1B wide receiver once he returned to action. That didn’t appear to be the plan before he got hurt. Lamb accounted for 29 percent of the targets and 42 percent of the air yards before suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 3. It’s a small sample, but one that’s backed up by extremely similar numbers in 2023. If the Cowboys are looking at building an offense that can handle losing Pickens after the season, returning to a Lamb-centric approach like they had early in the year makes sense.
⇒ Bust Scenario
Lamb returned from his high-ankle sprain in Week 7. Dallas pulled some of their starters in Week 18, giving us 10 legitimate post-injury contests to look at. He saw the ball plenty in these games, but his 26 percent target share and 34 percent air yards share weren’t quite elite. That weighted opportunity rating of .64 would have been 16th in the NFL last year. Pickens was at .58. Lamb’s 2.2 YPRR was his lowest mark in three years. This was Pickens’ first year out of Pittsburgh. It wouldn’t shock me if he continues to eat into Lamb’s workload in year two, albeit I don’t see that as an awfully likely outcome.
Verdict
Pickens is a serious threat to Lamb’s status as one of the league’s best target dominators, but even a 1B role—which isn’t all that likely—in this offense will translate WR1 numbers. A true bust season likely requires a further Pickens breakout in conjunction with a Dak Prescott injury or a drastic step forward from the defense. Like Amon-Ra St. Brown, the floor with Lamb is so high that it’s fine to give up the slightest amount of ceiling. He’s a fine pick at his current price.
Justin Jefferson
⇒ Boom Scenario
Kyler Murray just isn’t as bad as people think. He ranked 22nd in EPA per play last year, directly behind Justin Herbert and Caleb Williams.
If you can’t find Murray in here, it’s because he’s right in the middle with the other good but not great quarterbacks.
Pro Football Focus charted him with the second-highest accurate throw rate (67.8 percent) among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts. He’s not great, but he is miles better than what the Vikings were dealing with last year. When Kevin O’Connell has a halfway decent quarterback, he lets them rip it. In his first three years as a head coach, KOC dialed up a +3.4 percent pass rate over expected. With J.J. McCarthy and Co. under center last year, that rate fell to -1.2 percent. If Murray does not improve at all, he will still meet the threshold required for KOC to dial up the passing volume. If he does improve in a better environment, this could be a shockingly productive team through the air.
⇒ Bust Scenario
For all of my praise of Murray, I cannot ignore the fact that he got benched last year. Murray’s accuracy didn’t happen in a vacuum either. He was tied for the lowest aDOT in the NFL at 6.0. Murray also had a negative completion percent over expected because he was only attempting layups. If Murray operates as a low-risk, check-down merchant, that will limit Jefferson’s ability to earn downfield targets and could hurt the team as a whole. On a one-year deal in Minnesota, Murray isn’t guaranteed the starting job for 17 games. If we see J.J McCarthy again, it’s curtains for Jefferson. Even Wentz would do enough damage to make Jefferson a losing bet in the first round.
Verdict
I’m ready for my “Fell for it Again” award with Kyler Murray, and Justin Jefferson by extension. Jefferson is one of a handful of players who can easily finish as the WR1 overall. I take him over James Cook, who is ultimately my one clear fade in the first round.
Saquon Barkley
⇒ Boom Scenario
It’s easy to say “Barkley returns to 2024 form, next question.” Imagine me laying out that case and we can move on to a more interesting aspect of Barkley’s profile. His receiving output since joining the Eagles has been solid, but never elite, topping out at 37 catches last year. Excluding a two-game season in 2020, these are the lowest reception totals of his career. Part of that is because of the Eagles’ low passing volume, but Barkley is also coming off a pair of career-lows in target share. The team simply hasn’t chosen to throw him the ball all that much, and I wouldn’t either with all of the weapons they had. Now they’re without A.J. Brown. Dallas Goedert scored loads of touchdowns last year but is coming off career-worst marks in YAC per catch and yards per route run. Their replacements—Makai Lemon and Eli Stowers—are both injured right now. There’s opportunity up for grabs in the passing game, and a new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion could choose to distribute the targets in a different way. Barkley doesn’t need to set records on the ground if he gets to even 50 receptions.
⇒ Bust Scenario
Barkley hasn’t beaten James Cook in yards per route run once since the latter entered the NFL. There are more vacated targets in Philly, but Barkley would likely earn them for a brief period until Lemon and Stowers get up to speed. If he doesn’t earn more work through the air, Barkley’s efficiency simply has to improve, and that starts in the trenches. Philly went from sixth in ESPN’s run block win rate in 2024 to 17th in 2025. As you might expect, Barkley thrives when his line creates holes. Last year, Barkley ranked 47th out of 50 qualified running backs in yards per carry when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage (.9). He was 22nd (6.6) when no one touched him for at least a yard. Barkley averaged 8.6 YPC with a head of steam in 2024. The assumption is that with Lane Johnson (among others) healthy this year, the line will rebound. Philly lost legendary offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland in the offseason and all three of the oldest members of the line received lower pass and run blocking grades from PFF in 2025 versus the previous season. It shouldn't be taken for granted that the line will improve or even maintain last year’s form. If it gets worse, we could be looking at the late Giants version of Barkley.
Verdict
Barkley feels like a very similar bet to James Cook but goes a few picks later in drafts. It’s not a pick I’m thrilled to make, but it’s rare to find any kind of discount in the first round, and this qualifies.
Patrick Daugherty
