Over the next few weeks, 68 different Division I men's college basketball teams will go head-to-head in March Madness at different venues and arenas around the country in the hopes of winning a national championship.
But for two nights before the Round of 64 begins on Thursday, March 19, the Men's NCAA Tournament will tip off the very same way it has for all but two years since 2011: with the First Four, hosted on the campus of the University of Dayton.
It's part of the pageantry of what has made the First Four a tradition like no other in March Madness, as it takes place across two nights on a college campus in winner-take-all games to kick off one of the best postseason tournaments in all of sports.
Action gets underway on Tuesday, March 17 with UMBC vs. Howard in the 16-seed game at 6:40 p.m. ET and Texas vs. North Carolina State in the 11-seed game at 9:15 p.m. ET.
No. 16 Prairie View A&M will take on No. 16 Howard at 6:40 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 18, with the winner advancing to play No. 1 seed Florida in the South Region. But perhaps the biggest game of this year's First Four is the March 18 nightcap as No. 11 seed Miami (Ohio) takes on No. 11 seed Southern Methodist.
Will one of these teams go on a March run that is talked about for years? Time will tell as they look to punch their official ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Here's your guide on the history of First Four teams, and their success in March Madness:
What’s the furthest a First Four team has gone in NCAA Tournament?
The furthest a First Four team has advanced in the NCAA Tournament has been the Final Four. Two teams have achieved this feat: VCU in 2011, and UCLA in 2021.
The Rams, coached then by a young Shaka Smart and featuring players Joey Rodriguez, Bradford Burgess and Jamie Skeen, defeated USC in the First Four and then knocked off three top-10 seeds — No. 6 Georgetown (first round), No. 3 Purdue (second round) and No. 10 Florida State (Sweet 16) — to make the Elite Eight. To make the Final Four, VCU knocked off a Kansas team that was the No. 1 seed in the tournament and featured the talent of Markieff and Marcus Morris. The run ended against Butler in the Final Four.
The Bruins went on a similarly magical run from the First Four to the Final Four in the Indianapolis COVID-19 bubble. It started with a comeback from an 11-point halftime deficit against Michigan State at Mackey Arena, and then led to wins over No. 6 BYU, No. 14 Abilene Christian, No. 2 Alabama and No. 1 Michigan to get to the program's first Final Four since 2008. The run came to an end in the national semifinal in a March Madness thriller against No.1 Gonzaga.
According to the NCAA, at least one team that played its way into the 64-team field advanced to at least the second round in 12 of the last 14 editions of the First Four.
Some examples include LaSalle winning its First Four game in 2013 and then going on a Sweet 16 run that featured upsets of No. 4 Kansas State and No. 12 Ole Miss. No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson also won its First Four game in 2023 and then upset No. 1 seed Purdue in its first-round game.
Mar 15, 2026; Miami, FL, United States; United States second baseman Brice Turang (13) and United States pitcher Mason Miller (19) celebrate after defeating the Dominican Republic in a semifinal game of the 2026 World Baseball Classic at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
We were expecting a terrific game and we got it. We were expecting a slugfest and we got a pitcher’s duel. It also ended on a terrible call.
Team USA hit two solo home runs and Team Dominican Republic only had one as the United States advanced to the World Baseball Classic with a 2-1 win.
Paul Skenes started for Team USA and the Dominican Republic countered with Luis Severino. The Dominican Republic drew first blood on this 401- foot home run by Junior Caminero. [VIDEO]
It’s amazing how Caminero pulled a pitch that was on the corner, up and away.
Team USA put runners on second and third with one out in the top of the third after Bobby Witt Jr. walked and Bryce Harper doubled. But Severino struck out both Aaron Judge and Kyle Schwarber to end the threat. [VIDEO]
The Dominican Republic got a rally going in the seventh inning off of David Bednar. Austin Wells doubled with one out and then Geraldo Perdomo singled to center field. However, the slow-footed catcher stopped at third base. Perdomo then stole second base but with runners on second and third and one out, Bednar struck out Tatis and Ketel Marte to end the threat. [VIDEO]
Team USA did not have another hit after a Kyle Schwarber single in the fifth. So it came down to the ninth when the Dominican Republic had to score off of Mason Miller. Miller struck out Caminero to start the frame but then walked Junior Caminero. A wild pitch and an Oneil Cruz ground out to first put the tying run on third with two outs.
Miller got the count to 1-2 on Geraldo Perdomo before missing the zone with a fastball and a slider. So with a 3-2 count, Perdomo fouled off two 101 mile per hour fastballs before taking this slider down low. [VIDEO]
It’s a shame that pitch was called a strike and for an all-time classic contest to end on a bad call by the umpire. But there’s no ABS system in the WBC, so that’s how the game ended.
Later today, at 7 p.m. CT, Venezuela takes on Italy for the other spot in the WBC final. Michael Lorenzen is scheduled to start for Italy and Tigers pitcher Keider Montero is pencilled in for Venezuela. The game will be broadcast of FS1. We will, of course, have a game thread here later today for this semifinal game.
MIAMI — Paul Skenes pitched with poise through pressure, dispatching a series of stars on a night of great stakes in a sold-out stadium with millions watching on TV.
This was the type of game he never sees with the Pittsburgh Pirates and he may not experience on a regular basis until 2030.
Skenes dominated the Dominican Republic’s lineup of All-Stars for 4 1/3 innings in the America’s 2-1 semifinal victory, allowing his only run when Junior Caminero hit a go-ahead home run in the second on a 1-2 sweeper at the top of the strike zone.
“The D.R. is the toughest lineup I’ve ever faced, for sure,” Skenes said.
The NL Cy Young Award winner last year in his first full season at age 23, Skenes mixed six pitches among 71 offerings that included a fastball averaging 97.6 mph. He allowed six hits and finished the tournament 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and a .226 opponents batting average.
“You can make the argument he’s the best pitcher in the game,” U.S. manager Mark DeRosa said. “Special presence, special man, wants the moment, wasn’t too big for him. Controls his emotions, makes pitches.”
Skenes retired his first five batters before Caminero homered, then hit Geraldo Perdomo with a pitch and allowed Ketel Marte’s single in the third, when right fielder Aaron Judge threw a 95.7 mph strike to third, cutting down Fernandez Tatis Jr. for the inning’s final out.
“A moment like that where I can throw a guy out and help out Paul Skenes, who is electric as he is, I was excited about that,” Judge said.
Skenes stranded the bases loaded in the fourth when Austin Wells flied out. He had been given the lead when Gunnar Henderson and Roman Anthony homered in the top half.
“He’s very smart. He likes playing with the mind of the hitters,” said Juan Soto, who went 0 for 2 against Skenes. “We have to think a lot when we face him. That’s why I think he’s so special.”
Skenes has a 1.96 ERA in 55 career starts, striking out 386 while walking 74 in 320 2/3 innings. The 6-foot-6 right-hander has not come close to the playoffs on Pirates teams that finished 76-86 in 2024 and 71-91 last year.
Pittsburgh enters this season with seven straight losing records and 27 in 30 years that included a record 20 in a row from 1993 to 2012. The Pirates haven’t reached the World Series since winning the 1979 title.
Skenes is on track to be eligible for free agency after the 2029 season, having earned extra major league service time by finishing among the top two in voting for the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year award, which he won. That provision was added to the collective bargaining agreement in 2022.
If he stays healthy and keeps pitching like the way he has been, he likely would command a record contract for a pitcher. Given the Pirates lack the revenue of large-market teams, they could consider trading him for prospects before he reaches free agency.
Skenes tends to not look too far ahead. He marveled at the Dominicans’ batting order that included eight All-Stars combining for 27 selections.
“Before and after,” he said, “but can’t get too caught up on that.”
TAMPA, FLORIDA - MARCH 11: Brandon Valenzuela #59 of the Toronto Blue Jays follows a pop up during the second inning of a spring training game against the New York Yankees at George M. Steinbrenner Field on March 11, 2026 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mark Taylor/Getty Images) | Getty Images
We haven’t done one of these Question Time things for a few days, but lets try this one? Who of the Jays minor leaguers has impressed you the most this spring?
I’m going to pick Brandon Valenzuela. He’s hitting the ball well, 7 for 23 with a home run and I’ve liked his glove behind the plate. I asked, in the GameThread, the other day, if ‘all things being equal’ would you give the backup catcher job to Valenzuela?
Of course, all things aren’t equal. Tyler Heineman is out of options and he did a good job for us last year, which trumps any 23 at bats in spring training.
Since catchers tend to get dinged up over the season, I’m pretty sure we’ll see Brandon at some point. If only to cause me more confusion with the various Brandon, Brenden, Braydon, Bradan, Brendans on the team. Those guys should get together and pick one and only one form of that name and all use it, all spelled the same. It is bad enough we have guys who just skip a letter out of their names, to make life tougher on me (yes I’m looking at you Jonatan).
MEMPHIS, TENNESSEE - JANUARY 20: Anthony Edwards #5 of the Minnesota Timberwolves handles the ball against Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies during the first half at FedExForum on January 20, 2025 in Memphis, Tennessee. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Justin Ford/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The NBA has been experiencing Western Conference supremacy since the moment Michael Jordan retired from the Chicago Bulls for the second time following the 1998 NBA Finals. East teams have won plenty of championships over that time period — most recently, the 2019 Toronto Raptors, 2021 Milwaukee Bucks, and 2024 Boston Celtics — but no one disputes that life is always harder in the West. With recent No. 1 overall picks Victor Wembanyama and Cooper Flagg both landing in the West via the draft lottery, the Western Conference should continue to be superior moving forward.
NBA expansion is just ahead, with a vote coming at this week’s board of governors meetings to start the process of adding two new teams for the 2028-29 season. With franchises in Seattle and Las Vegas expected to be added, one existing team is going to move East. The league has narrowed its choices down to two candidates, per Shams Charania:
Executives across the NBA expect either the Minnesota Timberwolves or Memphis Grizzlies to move to the East to realign conferences with 16 each when Seattle and Las Vegas become West teams.
For the Memphis Grizzlies and Minnesota Timberwolves, the opportunity to move to the East feels almost as important as draft lottery results. One of these teams is about to have a much easier path to contention going forward in the weaker conference due to factors totally outside of their control.
Here’s one mock up of what the conferences could look like if the Wolves move East:
It’s pretty difficult to project what the league is going to look like in 2028-29 and beyond. What if the big three from this year’s NBA draft class — Cameron Boozer, AJ Dybantsa, and Darryn Peterson — all end up in the East? Suddenly that conference looks a lot harder moving forward. Who’s to say that Anthony Edwards will even be on the Wolves by then? A few years ago, no one would have thought the Grizzlies would move on from Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane while begging teams to take Ja Morant, but it’s all happened.
It’s fair to point out that the East has closed the gap a bit this season, but the West still looks much better going forward with Wembanyama and Flagg just starting their rise, plus the Thunder being flush with draft assets and young stars. If the Wolves were in the East this year, I might pick them to reach the NBA Finals. Instead, they will have to fight just to make it out of the first round in the West.
Can the Wolves or Grizzlies bride the committee making this decision in any way? It would be worth it. The West continues to dominate the NBA, and moving East would be a huge deal for any franchise.
PORT CHARLOTTE, FL - FEBRUARY 24: Hunter Feduccia #9 of the Tampa Bay Rays celebrates as he rounds the bases after hitting a home run during the game between the Minnesota Twins and the Tampa Bay Rays at Charlotte Sports Park on Tuesday, February 24, 2026 in Port Charlotte, Florida. (Photo by Kathryn Skeean/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Last week, we took a look at the early returns from the outfield group. This week, we’ll turn our attention to the catchers. The front office addressed this area at last season’s trade deadline by acquiring Nick Fortes and Hunter Feduccia. This duo is likely to handle the majority of the reps at catcher this season, and I expect Dom Keegan will have an opportunity to contribute a bit later this season.
Fortes is a plus defender across the board while Feduccia grades as roughly average in blocking and throwing but above average as a receiver. There aren’t many concerns about their defensive skill sets, but both are looking to turn in better offensive seasons than what they showed so far in their major league careers. Early Spring Training data suggests the Rays may get more offensive production from the catching position in 2026 – particularly through improved contact and stronger raw power indicators.
11.9%
… is the combined whiff rate for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. That’s a significant improvement from the 26.0% whiff rate Rays catchers posted in 2025.
The front office has quietly been moving towards a more contact-oriented offense, and this change has impacted the catching group as well. More balls in play should lead to a more efficient offensive output – even if some of those balls in play simply move runners along. I don’t think a sub 15% whiff rate is realistic as the wear-and-tear of the position could affect them later in the year, but around 20% seems possible and likely.
104.0mph
… is the 90th percentile exit velocity (EV90: industry standard to measure raw power) for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. Rays catchers produced a below-average EV90 of 102.8mph last season, so it’s clear that there’s more power in this duo than the collective combinations of catchers the Rays rostered in 2025.
Fortes and Feduccia were briefly part of that group last season, but they accounted for relatively few of the catching group’s batted-ball events. The raw power upgrade heading into 2026 is real and could make a difference for the offense.
6°
… is the average hard-hit launch angle for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring.
They’ll need to find a way to elevate the ball more to tap into their power as we countdown to the beginning of the regular season. While the group last year didn’t hit the ball very hard, they did a nice job of elevating the ball when they did – evident in their average hard-hit launch angle of 12°. Fortes and Feduccia may currently be prioritizing contact over damage, which can sometimes lead to flatter contact profiles.
One way to unlock more power would be to take slightly more aggressive swings, even if that comes with a bit more swing-and-miss.
40.7%
… is the zone-minus-out-of-zone swing rate for Fortes and Feduccia so far this spring. While this is better-than-average, Rays catchers ran an even better 43.6% in 2025. However, it was hard for the group last season to leverage their swing decisions into much production because the whiff was prevalent and the power was quite low.
Maintaining strong swing decisions will be key for Fortes and Feduccia, as that approach gives them the best chance to elevate the ball and tap into their raw power. If these trends hold, the Rays should get significantly more offensive production from the catching position than the 70 wRC+ they received in 2025.
GOODYEAR, Ariz. — Cleveland Guardians third baseman José Ramírez left Sunday’s spring training game against the Athletics with a sore left shoulder after jamming it sliding into third base, manager Stephen Vogt said.
Vogt said Ramírez would be reevaluated on Monday.
Ramírez was 1 for 2 in the game, which Cleveland won 12-6. He doubled in the second inning, then stole third base. Carter Kieboom pinch-hit for him in the fourth.
A seven-time All-Star who has played his entire 13-year career in Cleveland, Ramírez finished third in the AL MVP voting last season after batting .283 with 30 homers and 85 RBIs. He is a lifetime .279 hitter with 285 home runs and 949 RBIs.
Ramírez, 33, signed a seven-year, $175 million contract this offseason – the largest in franchise history.
MIAMI — A work stoppage that leads to canceled games during the 2027 Major League Baseball season could disrupt plans under discussion to have big league players participate in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics.
The Major League Baseball Players Association is negotiating with Major League Baseball, the IOC, the Los Angeles Organizing Committee for the 2028 Olympic and Paralympic Games and the World Baseball Softball Confederation on the six-nation baseball event, scheduled for Dodger Stadium from July 15-20 during what could be an extended All-Star break.
MLB and the union also are preparing for the start of bargaining in April or May for a labor contract to replace the current five-year agreement that expires Dec. 1. A management lockout is expected to start Dec. 2.
“It can be on a separate track, but I’m sure it will come up in the course of negotiations,” new acting union head Bruce Meyer said at the World Baseball Classic. “If we’re in a situation where games are being missed in ’27, that could have an impact on playing the Olympics after that.”
Meyer said a lost 2027 season would eliminate big leaguers from the 2028 Olympics.
“If we don’t have a season, we’re not going to play in the Olympics,” he said.
MLB has not lost regular-season games due to a labor dispute since 1995.
Insurance and player accommodations remain issues that must be resolved for MLB players to appear at the Olympics. At the WBC, costs are split proportionally among the shareholders — MLB and the union have equal stakes that are the most, and the WBSC, Nippon Professional Baseball and the Korea Baseball Organization also own minority shares.
“The federations involved, the IOC, we still have a lot of issues to work out with the league,” Meyer said. “Pretty much everything other than the qualifying — issues like insurance, transportation, and a whole variety of issues. ... Housing, lodging, security is all still under discussion.”
Players during the regular season are entitled to “first-class jet air and hotel accommodations,” according to their labor contract, and they likely would not want to stay in dormitory-type rooms commonly used at Olympics.
For players not in the Olympics, discussions are exploring the possibility of having teams play exhibition games against each other or minor league affiliates.
Meyer spoke on the field at the Miami Marlins’ loanDepot park before the U.S. played the Dominican Republic for a berth in the WBC final against Venezuela or Italy.
A crowd of 34,548 attended Venezuela’s 8-5 upset win over Japan in the quarterfinals. The Marlins drew 1.16 million at home last year, 28th among the 30 teams, and drew 29 crowds of less than 10,000.
“In this market, in Miami, you can see the the fan interest in baseball, which unfortunately is perhaps not maximized by the franchise here,” Meyer said.
MLB and the union are discussing the possibility of having exhibition games during an extended 2028 break for those players not at the Olympics.
The Dominican Republic and Venezuela have qualified along with the host U.S. and one team from Asia and one team from Europe/Oceania can qualify from this November’s WBSC Premier 12 tournament.
A final qualifying tournament will be played no later than March 2028 that includes the top two non-yet-qualified teams from the latest Asia Championship, the top two non-yet-qualified teams from the latest European Championship, the highest-placed non-yet-qualified team from the latest Africa Championship and the highest-placed non-yet-qualified team from the latest Oceania Championship.
Meyer was promoted to acting union head following the forced resignation of Tony Clark, a former All-Star first baseman who had led players since 2013. An investigation by the union’s outside counsel discovered evidence that Clark had an inappropriate relationship with his sister-in-law, a union employee since 2023.
GOODYEAR, ARIZONA - MARCH 5: Nathaniel Lowe #31 of the Cincinnati Reds at bat during a Spring Training game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Goodyear Ballpark on March 5, 2026 in Goodyear, Arizona. (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images) | Getty Images
This is a Spencer Steer story, really.
Steer, Cincinnati’s most recent 1B, is now a guy who’s slated to play defense all over the place in 2026. In many ways, he’s expected to be one part his former self and another part what Gavin Lux was last year, albeit with (hopefully) improved defense throughout the entire process.
Steer’s going to get a little time at 1B on days when Sal Stewart either needs a break (or is sliding over to 2B or 3B for the day). Steer’s going to get a little time at 2B, potentially, on days when Matt McLain slides over to SS to give Elly De La Cruz a break. Steer is absolutely going to get time in LF routinely, and he’s even begun getting reps in RF this spring, too.
He’s going to get to 550+ PA one way or another, that Steer. How the Reds choose to round out their 26-man roster, though, depends precisely on which spot he’ll be playing most often to get there.
For the first time in seemingly forever, the Cincinnati Reds do appear set to have a pair of final bench bats on their roster who are actually/potentially legitimate big league hitters. This is not a case where we’re hashing it out between the likes of Santiago Espinal, Nick Martini, or Kevin Newman. Jason Vosler is not going to start a handful of April games on this revamped Cincinnati roster.
(This is also assuming Dane Myers isn’t a complete pumpkin, but I digress.)
This time around, the Reds have seemingly stacked their options with bat-first guys in an attempt to help bolster an overall offense that was sluggish, at best, through their 2025 season. And as we enter the final week of Cactus League action, the battle for those final spots on the Opening Day roster has been one where all relevant parties have been living up to their billings.
Here’s a breakdown of the top candidates for the roles, with the likelihood being that just two of these names end up in the dugout come Opening Day:
JJ Bleday
JJ Bleday has the sheen of a free agent signing with actual guaranteed money going his way. He’s a former 1st round pick and top overall prospect as well as a guy with a 20 homer season at the big league level already under his belt. His 2025 season was rough across the board, though he still managed a 92 OPS+ in 344 PA with the Athleics in his ‘down’ year. This spring, he’s hit .294/.351/.529 with a pair of dingers, but more importantly has received pretty glowing evaluation on the contact he’s been making and the diligence with which he’s been trying to tap back into his former successes.
Bleday is a left-handed hitter who can play both outfield corners (and CF in mediocre fashion in a pinch). He’s almost certainly a platoon bat at this point, but putting him in LF against RHP looks like a credible decision at this point in time. The question is, though, whether putting Steer in LF against RHP is a better idea on most days, in which case Bleday – who has one option remaining – isn’t even a starting option in his best-case scenario.
Will Benson
Benson has the sheen of a guy who’s a known quantity to both the manager and the roster, a guy who’s spent three seasons with the Reds (and even more with manager Terry Francona, as both were in Cleveland together for years before Benson became a Red). He’s had his ups, like in 2023 (.275/.365/.498 in 329 PA), his downs (.187/.274/.376 in 388 PA in 2024), and his almosts (.226/.273/.435 in 253 PA in 2025, albeit with elite batted ball data and a brutally unlucky .255 BABIP).
Benson, who also has an option remaining, does a lot of the same things that Bleday does. Benson does have a lot more success on his ledger as a baserunner, however, and would likely profile as the team’s go-to pinch runner whenever that need arose. He’s also mashed in camp this spring (.276/.432/.724 with 4 HR and more walks than Ks), and it’s really hard to imagine him not being on the active roster from the outset.
Nathaniel Lowe
If the Reds chose to carry both Benson and Bleday, that would push Steer into more of the mix on the infield, mixing in at 1B more often and cutting into Sal Stewart’s time at the position. If the Reds opted to carry Nate Lowe, though, instead of one of Benson or Bleday, Steer would have a more regular role in a corner outfield spot (especially if Noelvi Marte has continued struggles in RF).
Lowe, to his credit, has come into camp and hit. He’s posted a .241/.353/.517 line with a pair of homers, that on the heels of hitting .280/.370/.420 in 119 PA with the Boston Red Sox during the second half of a 2025 season that saw him flop with the Washington Nationals in his first stint with the club. He’s a guy who posted a 122 OPS+ across four seasons with the Texas Rangers from 2021-2024, a guy who won a Silver Slugger, Gold Glove, and World Series in those stops.
He’s only 30, but he’s also in camp as a non-roster guy, so adding him would require lopping someone else off the 40-man roster, too. Still, he’s by far and away the most proven bat among this group, and he’s an vastly experienced 1B on a team that projects to have Stewart – who’s barely played 1B – be the other go-to guy at the position.
Rece Hinds
Hinds was the best player on the planet for a week in 2024, and won NL Player of the Week for his efforts. He also tanked terribly once optioned back to AAA that year, and he floundered (.116/.136/.279 in 44 PA) when called back to the big leagues in 2025. However, his prodigious power has been on display again this spring (.364/.417/.788 with 3 HR), and that’s after he destroyed AAA pitching last year for Louisville in his age-24 year (.302/.359/.563 with 24 HR and 21 SB in 435 PA).
He’s a right-handed hitter, albeit one who didn’t hit LHP (.769 OPS at AAA) better than RHP (.914 OPS at AAA) last year. So, he’s not the perfect complement to any of Benson, Bleday, or Lowe, at least on paper. He’s also been streaky to the point where you wonder how well he’d do with limited playing time, which isn’t the best attribute when looking for a ‘bench’ bat.
His upside/ceiling, though, is probably the highest among this group, however, and to pass over him if he’s finally figured it out would be a tough pill to swallow.
Robyn Cowen is joined by Jonathan Wilson, Lucy Ward, and Dan Bardell as Arsenal extend their lead at the top of the Premier League to nine points, Spurs come up with a performance at Anfield, Manchester United win again, and Chelsea get emotional about a huddle On this podcast: limbs of the season at the Emirates as 16-year-old Max Dowman becomes the Premier League’s youngest ever scorer to help Arsenal over the line against Everton, before Manchester City drop more points at West Ham thanks to the face of Konstantinos Mavrapanos. Is this the night Arsenal won the title … part 47? At the bottom Spurs *checks notes* show promise under Igor Tudor, Richarlison netting a last-minute equaliser against Liverpool to prove the old adage that the fifth time’s a charm. Chelsea lose after Paul Tierney infiltrates their pre match huddle. PGMO’s response to Liam Rosenior’s complaints will be interesting. And Manchester United cement third place with victory over Aston Villa as Bruno Fernandes moves closer to a record amount of assists in a single season. We have a hotel boycott, an update from Texas plus your questions and that’s today’s Guardian Football Weekly.
Pep Guardiola has admitted that Manchester City require a “perfect game” to overturn Real Madrid’s 3-0 lead in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie on Tuesday.
Álvaro Arbeloa’s team are firm favourites to progress to the quarter-finals after their victory at the Bernabéu last week when Madrid’s captain, Federico Valverde, scored a first-half hat-trick.
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Want more in-depth analysis of the region? Here are our breakdowns of the East, West, Midwest and South.
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 20: Jack Leiter #35 of the Texas Rangers pitches during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Globe Life Field on September 20, 2025 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images) | Getty Images
With the 2025 Texas Rangers season having come to an end, we shall be, over the course of the offseason, taking a look at every player who appeared in a major league game for the Texas Rangers in 2025.
Today we are looking at pitcher Jack Leiter.
Jack Leiter was better in 2025 than he was in 2024.
Granted, that’s not a terribly high bar to clear. Leiter had an 8.83 ERA and 6.11 xERA in his nine appearances in 2024. That is a bar that is so low to the ground, you don’t exactly have to jump to clear it. You basically have to simply not shuffle your feet.
Still, I don’t mean to damn with faint praise. Leiter made significant strides in 2025. He made 29 starts in the majors and threw 151 innings. He cut his ERA by more than 50%, from 8.83 to 3.86. His FIP dropped from 5.66 to 4.15, his xERA fell from 6.11 to 4.45. Leiter’s K rate went up and his walk and home run rate went down.
Leiter’s ERA was around league average — B-R had him at 5% below league average with an ERA+ of 95, and Fangraphs had him at 5% above league average with an ERA- of 95 — and we will take that from a rookie in his first full season in a major league rotation.
Leiter also got better as the season went along, which is encouraging. After putting up a 4.37 ERA in 80 innings over 16 starts in the first half, with a 7.7 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9, he improved to a 3.28 ERA in the second half over 71 innings covering 13 starts, with a 10.0 K/9 and 3.67 BB/9.
In the second half, he generally avoided the disaster outings that have plagued him in the past. He made it at least five innings in 10 of his 13 second half starts, allowed more than four runs just once, and held opponents to one or two runs in 9 of those 13 starts. To the untrained eye watching from home, he appeared grow calmer on the mound as the season went on, less likely to get visibly frustrated.
Jack Leiter even appeared on a handful of Rookie of the Year ballots, finishing 7th, with Noah Cameron of the Royals being the only pitcher to finish ahead of him.
It was a successful season from a developmental standpoint, I think. Leiter was a league average…I wouldn’t call him an innings-eater, necessarily, but he was an acceptable back of the rotation starter. B-R has him with a 0.4 bWAR on the year, Fangraphs has him at 2.3 fWAR, and I think somewhere around the middle of that is probably about right.
The question with Leiter is, where does he go from here?
There are still significant weaknesses in Leiter’s game. He doesn’t miss enough bats, particularly for someone with his stuff. He walks too many batters. His fastball was much better in 2025, as opponents went from a .443 wOBA/.423 xwOBA against it in 2024 to .281/.330 in 2025, but his newly added sinker got lit up. He added a spike change in 2025, but was wildly inconsistent with it — sometimes it looked like a devastating out pitch, sometimes it was spiking three feet in front of the plate or missing glove side by two feet.
Jack Leiter turns 26 years old in April. His path to the majors was slower than I think everyone — including Leiter himself — expected when he was taken second overall in 2021. He’s now made it, though, and has a firm hold on a rotation spot. If he can tighten his command, improve the consistency on his changeup, he could make another big stride forward, potentially establish himself as a solid #2/3 starter. If he doesn’t, if he treads water or shows minor improvements, he’s a back of the rotatoin guy.
Its possible expectations were too high for Leiter coming out of college, being the #2 pick of the draft and banking the largest signing bonus in the class. That said, the top of the first round in 2021 has ended up being pretty rough.
Henry Davis, selected first overall, has been bad. Jackson Jobe, selected third, missed time due to physical issues, made his major league debut in 2025, was okay for the Tigers, and then underwent Tommy John surgery, which will cost him most of 2026. Marcelo Mayer, the #4 pick, hasn’t stayed healthy and hasn’t been that impressive when he’s been on the field. #5 pick Colton Cowser hit well in 2024, didn’t hit much in 2025, and is looking like a platoon guy. Jordan Lawlar, at #6, has missed a ton of time due to injuries and is moving to the outfield. The rest of the top 10 consists of Frank Mozzicato and Benny Montgomery, who haven’t made it past AA and are fringe prospects at best now, Sam Bachman, who is now a reliever on the AAA/majors shuttle for Anaheim, and Kumar Rocker, who, well, we know what’s going on there.
So Jack Leiter, at this point, still looks like one of the best picks in the top 10 of the 2021 first round. If he can build on his 2025 season and take another step forward, he could establish himself as one of the best picks in 2021, period.
Mar 12, 2026; Clearwater, Florida, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) hits a two-rbi double against the Toronto Blue Jays in the second inning during spring training at BayCare Ballpark. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Some years, when I reflect on this exercise, I feel pretty proud of myself.
Other times, like now, I look back and wonder why anyone lets me communicate to anyone about the Philadelphia Phillies.
Yes, it’s that time again for my yearly plunge into the crystal ball; my 10 bold Phillies predictions. But before we gander at what I’m going to get wrong this year, let’s take a look at how I screwed up the predictions this time last year.
Bryce Harper leads the Phillies (and the NL) in home runs
Zack Wheeler finally wins his Cy Young
Jesus Luzardo finishes in the top 5 of Cy Young voting
Phillies starters lead MLB in WAR
Bryson Stott makes the All Star team
Taijuan Walker makes at least 4 starts for the Phillies
Phillies trade for Taylor Ward at the trade deadline
John McMillon emerges as the Jeff Hoffman replacement
Trea Turner scores 115+ runs
Phillies win the World Series
Let’s get the good ones out of the way. Luzardo was close, finishing in the top-7. Phils starters DID lead MLB in fWAR, by a LOT. And Walker made… 21 STARTS! With a 4.25 ERA!
I had some near misses. Turner was great atop the lineup, but scored 94 runs. Wheeler might have won the Cy Young if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but probably would have been a finalist with Cristopher Sanchez and Paul Skenes. Stott did not make the All Star team, but played like an All Star in the second half. And the Phils did trade for a right-handed outfielder, although it was Harrison Bader, not Taylor Ward.
The big whiffs? Harper most definitely did not lead the Phils (or the NL) in homers, no one has heard from John McMillon since becoming last spring’s wonderkid, and no, the Phillies most definitely did NOT win the World Series.
Win some, lose some. Let’s take another crack at it.
Zack Wheeler finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting
Since the start of the 2021 season, no pitcher in baseball has accumulated more fWAR than Wheeler’s 26.7. He has finished 2nd in Cy Young voting twice. He is attempting to return from a blood clot in his shoulder caused by thoracic outlet syndrome, and by all accounts down in Clearwater, things are looking really good and he appears to be on track to begin his season in the Phillies’ rotation starting in mid-April.
If Wheeler looks anything like he did for the vast majority of last year before he got hurt, he’ll absolutely be a top-five Cy Young candidate, even if he misses a few starts at the beginning of the season.
Ace-level Wheeler turns this rotation from pretty good, to the best in baseball.
This time, Cristopher Sanchez wins the Cy Young
Sanchez is poised to make 2026 a clone of his ‘25 season.
Cristopher Sánchez tonight for the Dominican Republic:
5 IP 2 H 0 R 1 BB 8 K 63 pitches (43 strikes) 18 swing & misses Max velo 96.9 mphpic.twitter.com/bpBLS6PAdK
He’s probably baseball’s best left-handed pitcher not named Tarik Skubal right now, and although it’s going to be hard for anyone to beat Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes in the NL Cy Young race, let’s just assume someone other than the Pirates star takes home baseball’s top pitching prize in ‘26. After finishing runner-up a season ago to Skenes, Sanchez is going to have a slightly better season and take home his first Cy Young.
Kyle Schwarber clears 50 homers again
Coming off an NL MVP runner-up campaign with 56 homers, Schwarber has spent this spring slugging bombs for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic.
The bat speed is still elite. He can hit left-handers. He’s in great shape. There’s no reason to doubt Schwarber’s ability to have another monster power season at the plate. I don’t think he gets to 56, but I say he pops 50+ homers again.
Bryce Harper finishes with a worse OPS than last year
Harper is obviously upset about Dave Dombrowski’s “not elite” comments last October, and has spent much of the winter and spring talking about it. He’s painted himself into an uncomfortable corner, though, talking so much about it that he almost has to be better than he last year to prove himself right and Dombrowski wrong.
Early spring results are mostly meaningless, but we can all recognize that if Harper had spent the spring and the WBC wailing on the ball, we’d all be very happy and excited that the Phils’ first baseman was going to back up his assertion that he is still an “elite” player. But it’s been a very quiet spring for Harper so far, and so the opposite must at least be considered.
I’m not sure Harper is going to be able to fix this narrative. I wish all my bold predictions could be positive, but I just don’t see Harper being a whole lot better than he was a season ago. I truly hope I’m wrong, but my bold prediction is that he finishes with an OPS lower than last year’s .844. Prove me wrong, please!
4 Phillies starters make the NL All Star team
Yes, that’s right, Aaron Nola as an All Star is a boldprediction.
I really like what I’ve seen from him so far, and his WBC start for Team Italy against Team Mexico, along with some encouraging starts in Clearwater, have me bullish on an “even year” Nola rebound. I think he will join Wheeler, Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo as All Stars (although I’ll bet one won’t be able to pitch due to availability).
Justin Crawford gets more ROY votes than Andrew Painter
Thus far, I have been more impressed with Justin Crawford’s spring than Andrew Painter’s. Of course, it’s a very small sample size and spring results don’t mean much in the regular season. Both players are penciled in to break camp as regulars, with Crawford playing everyday in center field and Painter holding down the No. 5 spot in the rotation.
After an early extra-base hit barrage, Crawford is tied for 2nd (Bryson Stott) on the team in hits (8), but with just a .638 OPS. Nevertheless, he’s played very good defense in center, and only needs to be slightly more impactful with the bat to be a 3-win player. Painter’s early numbers looked good, and in his start on Friday, his 97 mph fastball and four-pitch mix was very effective until the third inning when his fastball flattened and got hit around.
Andrew Painter's day is done after 2.2 innings of work. He got 11 whiffs on the day.
Velo went down in the third inning Orioles hitters were able to do some damage. #Phillies definitely are pacing Painter, will be watching the fastball shape closely going forward. pic.twitter.com/eeYe1Y8rIT
I think Painter is going to struggle a bit more in his rookie season than Crawford, and it’s possible neither player gets much Rookie of the Year love, but at the moment, let’s give the edge to Crawford, who isn’t trying to rediscover himself as a pitcher after Tommy John surgery.
Jhoan Duran leads the NL in saves
The Phillies have not had a regular closer from the start of a season during this entire four-year run that started in 2022. In Duran, they now do. He has spent the spring learning a new type of splitter, one that acts as a bit of a changeup. Can you imagine another plus-pitch to off-set his splinker and 100+ mph fastball?
Yeah, I think he gets 45-50 saves to lead the NL.
Otto Kemp has more HRs than Adolis Garcia
I wrote about what Adolis Garcia needs to do to reverse the negative trends we’ve seen over the last two years, and I’m not optimistic he can do it. I’m also not as bullish on Otto Kemp as a “solution” to the Phillies’ outfield problems, either, but if I had to choose a bold outcome for the outfield, this would be my best guess.
I think Garcia is going to struggle. I think he’s going to lose playing time. I believe Kemp will hit reasonably well in the platoon with Brandon Marsh. So, let’s say Kemp gets 15 HRs for the Phillies this season, Garcia gets 13.
That’s pretty depressing, huh?
Alec Bohm & Bryson Stott combine for 35+ HRs
Last year, Stott hit 13 dingers. Bohm slugged 11. That’s 24, so I’m essentially predicting they more than double their combined total from last year.
Both are raking down in Clearwater, swinging for power and having great ABs. I wish I could say I was 100% confident these two former first round picks were going to have their long-awaited breakout seasons, but I am just not confident that’s ever going to happen.
That said, this is all about making bold predictions, and predicting these two players to combine for 35 or more blasts in 2026 is pretty darn bold. So, let’s go with it.
Trea Turner named MVP of Philly All Star Game
I’m not making a prediction on where the Phillies are going to finish this time around, at least not in this space. I honestly do not have a good sense of what to expect from this team that has been through so much over the last three years.
To celebrate the nation’s 250th birthday, the All Star Game is coming to Philadelphia. While I think the Phils will have four starting pitchers named to the All Star Game, I also believe they’ll get Duran, Schwarber and Turner on the team as well. And to celebrate the game being played at Citizens Bank Park for the first time, I will predict Trea will get a base hit in extra innings that brings home a walk-off win for the National League, earning him MVP honors as his city celebrates around him.
Hopefully, that won’t be the high point of the season!
PEORIA, ARIZONA - FEBRUARY 24: Cal Raleigh #29 of the Seattle Mariners runs to first base during the first inning of a spring training game against the Chicago White Sox at Peoria Stadium on February 24, 2026 in Peoria, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Although the American League West over the last handful of seasons has been as tight a division as ever, it’s had a clear best team since the mid-2010s: the Houston Astros. They dominated the AL West and proved themselves time and time again as a juggernaut not just within the division, but within Major League Baseball as well.
Now, it’s the Seattle Mariners’ turn to reclaim the mantle heading into 2026, following a 2025 campaign that saw the M’s snatch the AL West crown from the Astros after Houston had won four titles in a row and six in seven seasons (with the only outlier being the Oakland Athletics in the COVID-shortened 2020). The pressure will also be on them to finally snap their franchise-long drought of pennants, as they came closer than ever before in 2025 — topping the famous 1995 and 2001 teams — falling in an ALCS Game 7 heartbreaker to the Blue Jays.
2025 record: 90-72 (1st, AL West) 2026 FanGraphs projection: 88-74 (1st, AL West)
If there’s one team that is known for playing a specific brand of baseball across MLB, it’s the Mariners. While they are obviously more successful when they have the offense they did in 2025 — the ninth-ranked offense in all of baseball per fWAR and tied for the second-best in regard to wRC+ — their pitching comes first. Whether it’s the starting rotation or the bullpen, there’s something to love about the arms that have been assembled out in the northwest.
Beginning with the Mariners’ rotation, their top three pitchers are about as good as any in MLB. One might think it was Luis Castillo or Logan Gilbert who led the way statistically for Seattle, but it wasn’t. Instead, it was Bryan Woo, who pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA and a 3.33 xFIP, along with a staff and rotation-leading 3.6 fWAR. It was an entire fWAR point higher than both Castillo and Gilbert, who finished with 2.6, although Gilbert pitched upward of 50 innings fewer than the other two. And, of course, the fourth man in the rotation, George Kirby, can’t go unmentioned. He also finished with over 2.0 fWAR, and despite his 4.21 ERA, he probably deserved better according to the other metrics tracked, as his xERA of 3.88 and xFIP of 3.25 put him in a good spot to improve for 2026.
The name that made the biggest noise out of the bullpen was right-hander Andrés Muñoz, who finished with a 1.73 ERA and a 1.9 fWAR in 62.1 innings pitched. The 27-year-old has been about as consistent as anyone could ask for over the last three seasons, and the Mariners are going to look to him in high-leverage situations just as they did last year.
Obviously, though, the name that needs no introduction on the hitting side is catcher Cal Raleigh. He clubbed 60 home runs — a record for both catchers and switch-hitters — and tallied up 9.1 fWAR with a 161 wRC+ last season, competing with the Yankees’ Aaron Judge for the AL MVP award. Although he finished as the runner-up, Raleigh came away with his first All-Star appearance and a Silver Slugger, and is looking to dethrone Judge from the top of the American League food chain in 2026. The 29-year-old isn’t projected to have nearly the kind of season he had in 2025, but he is still projected to be a top player in the AL, with FanGraphs suggesting that he will hit somewhere around the 40 home run mark with a 130 wRC+ and 6.4 fWAR.
Along with Raleigh, the Mariners over the last couple of seasons have accrued plenty of talent to keep their bid for a World Series about as strong as possible. There’s Julio Rodríguez, Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, and Josh Naylor, whom the Mariners secured on a five-year deal worth $92.5 million this offseason after bringing him in last year, along with 21-year-old secon dbaseman Cole Young, who was called up last season and played 77 games. There’s also the versatile Brendan Donovan, new from the Cardinals as a trade addition, and long-ago Yankees farmhand Rob Refsnyder, who turned himself into dangerous platoon bat for the Red Sox and joined the M’s in free agency.
All these names are now on a team that was on the brink of its first Fall Classic in 2025. Now, they’ll look to make it even further and vie for a championship in 2026.
More Pinstripe Alley MLB team season previews can be found here.
