What has to go right for young Sharks to finish strong, make 2026 NHL playoffs originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
It’s been seven years since the Sharks weren’t obvious trade deadline sellers.
That was 2019, and a loaded Sharks squad, led by Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns, all in their primes, were eyeing a run to the Stanley Cup.
The Sharks aren’t back like that, just yet.
Heading into Thursday, San Jose’s first post-Olympics-break game against the Calgary Flames, the Sharks are five points out of the Western Conference’s final wild-card spot.
It will be, honestly, an uphill climb for the Sharks to make the playoffs: Beyond newly-minted “generational” superstar Macklin Celebrini, the roster is seriously flawed.
That said, the talent is there, besides Celebrini, for a surprise playoff berth. So what has to go right for the Sharks to make the postseason for the first time since 2019?
Celebrini Must Stay Healthy
There’s arguably no player in the NHL more important to his team than Celebrini.
Celebrini has 81 points, 28 goals and 53 assists, meaning that he’s been involved in 47.9 percent of the Sharks’ 169 goals. Only Connor McDavid and his 98 points, directly part of 48.3 percent of the Edmonton Oilers’ offense, has had a greater impact on his team than Celebrini.
McDavid, however, has fellow superstar Leon Draisaitl and his 80 points riding shotgun. Celebrini, meanwhile, is an astonishing 42 points ahead of second place on the Sharks, Will Smith’s 39.
To put that in perspective, that’s the widest chasm between No. 1 to 2 scorer on an NHL team, followed by Nikita Kucherov’s 34-point differential over Jake Guentzel (60) on the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Simply put, the Sharks cannot afford to lose Celebrini for any extended period of time.
How To Improve Goal Differential?
Easier said than done, but the Sharks need to score more and give up less.
“No team in the National Hockey League has, probably, made the playoffs at a -29 goal differential,” head coach Ryan Warsofsky said of San Jose’s current deficit.
Actually, the 2023-24 Washington Capitals squeaked in to the postseason with a -36, but that certainly is the exception and not the rule. Before this Caps’ squad, the last team to make the playoffs with a -20 or worse goal differential was the -27 1996-97 Montreal Canadiens.
Starting at 5-on-5, for Warsofsky, improving San Jose’s -17 goal differential there, begins in the defensive zone.
“It starts with us breaking out pucks. We’ve got to execute our breakouts, support the puck,” he said.
The Sharks have the second-worst 5-on-5 Pass Completion Rate in the NHL at 73.72 percent, per Stathletes, trailing league-best Tampa Bay’s 78.54.
That doesn’t sound like a huge difference, but four or five more errant passes per game certainly can impact your goals against.
“And then, when we’re in our defensive zone, we’ve got to be tight, and we’ve got to have some level of desperation. We got to get into people, and close, and get numbers on pucks,” Warsofsky said. “When we do that, we have a lot of success on the other end of the ice.”
At the other end of the ice, the San Jose bench boss says the Sharks must shoot more. Their 25.5 Shots Per Game is fifth-worst in the league.
“We’ve got to put more pucks to the net,” Warsofsky said. “Then, on top of that, we’ve got to win the next puck.”
San Jose is fifth-worst in the NHL with 79.44 5-on-5 Offensive Zone Puck Recoveries Per 60, which contributes to them being dead-last in the league in 5-on-5 OZ Possession Time.
Perhaps this is an area where the newest Shark, Kiefer Sherwood, a dogged forechecker who wins lots of puck battles, can help with.
Can the Sharks acquire anybody else before the Mar. 6 trade deadline who can strengthen some of these weaknesses?
Where Can Special Teams Be Better?
The Sharks’ special teams actually are closer to average than bad — they’re 16th in the NHL on the power play and 21st on the penalty kill — but any improvement on either score could make a huge impact.
What could get the power play going?
“Just be a little bit more direct in what we want to do,” Warsofsky said, “and not go off script as much.”
For what it’s worth, the Sharks are eighth in the NHL with 8.08 Power Play High-Danger Chances Per 60. San Jose is in good company, the top-five in this category, the Edmonton Oilers, Vegas Golden Knights, Montreal Canadiens, Dallas Stars, and New York Rangers are top-10 power plays.
San Jose might be doing more right on the PP than they’ve being given credit for, they just need more finish.
What about the penalty kill?
“Just being more aggressive. When we sit back is when we take bullets,” Warsofsky said. “Play with more anticipation.”
On the other side of things, the Sharks have allowed 2.26 Penalty Kill High-Danger Chances Per 60, third-worst in the league.
Less high-danger chances allowed should lead to more success on the PK.
Can Goalies Play One Great Month?
Yaroslav Askarov, under the radar, arguably has been the best penalty-killing goalie in the NHL.
Per Stathletes, his +9.52 Goals Saved Above Expected on the kill is the best in the league.
Askarov, however, hasn’t found as much success stopping 5-on-5 shots, his -2.55 GSAE in the bottom half of the NHL.
If Askarov can boost that and put together another month like he did in November, when he went 8-2-0 with .944 Save Percentage, that could be enough to get San Jose into the playoffs.
The same goes for Alex Nedeljkovic, and if he can replicate January’s 5-2-0 record and .916 Save Percentage.
That’s the power of goaltending.
Beyond all the aforementioned X-factors, just one brilliant month from Askarov or Nedeljkovic might be all the Sharks need to punch their ticket to the post-season dance.
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