Category: Sports News

Welcome back to the annual DRaysBay Community Prospect List, a treasured tradition at the site where our community diligently votes for the top prospects in the Rays system.

This off-season saw a dramatic overhaul of the Rays system, and accordingly the DRaysBay list has also shifted dramatically year over year. Only one prospect graduated last year’s list in OF Chandler Simpson (ranked 5th in 2025), while others were traded in Yoniel Curet (7), Mason Montgomery (18), and Colton Ledbetter (22).

Rank	Player	Position	Votes	Total	Percentage	Last Season
1	Carson Williams	SS	14	25	56%	1
2	Brody Hopkins	RHP	19	25	76%	8
3	Jacob Melton	OF	14	28	50%	N/A
4	Theo Gillen	OF	14	26	54%	13
5	Ty Johnson	RHP	12	25	48%	15
6	Daniel Pierce	SS	13	23	57%	N/A
7	Jadher Areinamo	INF	15	28	54%	N/A
8	TJ Nichols	RHP	13	28	46%	N/R
9	Michael Forret	RHP	8	33	24%	N/A
10	Santiago Suarez	RHP	11	30	37%	16
11	Anderson Brito	RHP	7	28	25%	N/A
12	Xavier Isaac	1B	9	28	32%	3
13	Caden Bodine	C	10	25	40%	N/A
14	Brendan Summerhill	OF	11	27	41%	N/A
15	Slater de Brun	OF	10	25	40%	N/A
16	Nathan Flewelling	C	8	26	31%	N/R
17	Trevor Harrison	RHP	9	26	35%	10
18	Jose Urbina	RHP	13	26	50%	25
19	Tre’ Morgan	1B/LF	15	25	60%	4
20	Jackson Baumeister	RHP	12	27	44%	12
21	Aidan Smith	OF	17	29	59%	6
22	Homer Bush Jr.	OF	10	25	40%	21
23	Dom Keegan	C	10	28	36%	9
24	Gary Gill Hill	RHP	8	25	32%	11
25	Brailer Guerrero	OF	8	24	33%	14
26	Brayden Taylor	2B/3B	6	25	24%	2
27	Adrian Santana	SS	6	26	23%	N/R
28	Austin Overn	OF	7	21	33%	N/A
29	Taitn Gray	1B/OF/C	8	23	35%	N/A
30	Victor Valdez	SS	6	22	27%	N/A

1. Carson Williams, SS
23 | R/R | 6’2” | 180
AAA | .213/.318/.447 (98 wRC+) 451 PA, 23 HR, 22 SB, 12.4% BB, 34.1% K
MLB | .172/.219/.354 (54 wRC+) 106 PA, 5 HR, 2 SB, 5.7% BB, 41.5% K

Williams made his MLB debut on August 22nd and proved the be the real deal on defense: an elite athlete with excellent movement and a great arm. It was his performance at the plate that has caused his prospect status to lose some shine, at both the MLB and Triple-A levels, particularly due to some trouble with the curve. In the majors he saw 162 breaking balls across 37 plate appearances and got on base only four times (three hits, one walk) with 20 strikeouts, and the results were similar for off-speed pitches as well. It was a strong enough underperformance at the plate that Williams might not make the big league roster out of Spring Training, despite the trade of Brandon Lowe. As a top flight defender at the hardest position, he doesn’t need to be tearing the cover off the ball, but the bat will need to improve for Williams to be a positive contributor moving forward.

2. Brody Hopkins, RHP
24 | 6’4” | 200
AA | 2.72 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 116.0 IP (25 GS) 28.7% K, 12.2% BB

Hopkins was late to pitching, having done so essentially one season in college before being drafted in 2023, and accordingly has been refining his control throughout his pitching career. This was no different in 2025, as Hopkins saw his performance dramatically improve throughout the Double-A season. He’s a pure power pitcher, a rarity these days, but doesn’t allow much hard contact thanks to a plus-plus curveball, a promising in-development sweeper, a plus cutter, oh and a fastball that touches 100. He’s the type of starter that makes batters say “good luck” to the man in the on-deck circle during their walk back to the dugout. Given the quality of stuff and trajectory of performance, he might be one of the top prospects in baseball by mid-season.

A scoreless start as smooth as butter in Game 1 of @BiscuitBaseball's Southern League playoff run 🧈

Brody Hopkins (@RaysBaseball) was dominant on the bump en route to a win: pic.twitter.com/LCk8BgFp5V

— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 17, 2025

3. Jacob Melton, OF
25 | L/L | 6’3” | 208
AAA (HOU) | .286/.389/.556 (141 wRC+) 150 PA, 6 HR, 12 SB, 14.7% BB, 20.0% K
MLB (HOU) |.157/.234/.186 (22 wRC+) 78 PA, 0 HR, 7 SB, 7.7%BB, 37.2% K

Brought over from Houston in the Brandon Lowe deal, Melton was the Astros top prospect and provides strong value defensively, pairing excellent first-step instincts and above-average range with an arm that, while light, is sufficient for the position. At the plate, his 2025 season provided a clear breakout through a dramatic spike in both hardhit rate and exit velocity. Ongoing mechanical refinements have unlocked more of his natural strength without eroding his contact skills. While this approach leaves some exposure to soft stuff and pitches on the outer third—placing added importance on continued growth in swing decisions—the overall profile fits comfortably as an above-average everyday center fielder with power upside.

Jacob Melton lays out to rob Riley Greene of extra bases! pic.twitter.com/Z8qswpr88s

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) August 18, 2025

4. Theo Gillen, OF
20 | L/R | 6’2” | 195
A | .267/.433/.387 (151 wRC+) 324 PA, 5 HR, 36 SB, 19.8% BB, 23.1% K

Gillen fell to 18th overall in the 2024 draft due to shoulder and wrist injuries, despite being considered by some to be the best teenage bat in the draft. Now healthy, so far he has delivered on that promise, despite a calf injury early in the season and a hand injury while sliding that ended his year early by three weeks. The Rays moved him from short to center after drafting but that has so far not yielded any concerns; the power projection is still unknown. As things stand, Gillen has the floor of a major league contributor and the ceiling of an All-Star, but he has to stay on the field, and has a long way to go.

The only prospect in the minors to have a 150 wRC+ or higher, 35+ SB, and a BB% over 17%

Theo Gillen

A 6'2"/195 frame w/ great zone awareness, quiet movements prior to getting swing off, & direct w/ hands at the point of contact. More power to tap into with increased FB contact pic.twitter.com/drYJxcieqz

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) January 23, 2026

5. Ty Johnson, RHP
24 | 6’6” | 205
AA | 2.61 ERA, 2.33 FIP, 110.1 IP (26 G, 20 GS), 34.7% K, 8.8% BB

A dip-and-drive pitcher with a quick arm action and a limited arsenal with a flat plane have given Johnson a reliever projection most of his minor league career, but his success speaks for itself. Johnson has a fastball that continues to be difficult for batters to see. It sits around 94 as a starter and can ramp up to 98, but talking about the fastball buries the lede. Johnson’s slider passed the test of Double-A in part because he was able to throw it fast and slow to keep hitters off balance. Accordingly, he hasn’t really needed a third pitch just yet, but there’s a change up in development for problematic lefties.

Most underrated: Ty Johnson 🎥

Best 1st year pros: Theo Gillen, Nathan Flewelling, Ryan Andrade, Andreimi Antunez

Most likely to breakout in 2026: Dean Moss, Nathan Flewelling, Maykel Coret, James Quinn-Irons

pic.twitter.com/Ei348vbt6k

— Ray Ballstein (@RaysRanter) September 15, 2025

6. Daniel Pierce, SS
19 | R/R | 6’0” | 185

The 14th overall pick in the 2025 draft, Pierce is a preternatural defender at short stop, with a top flight glove that could rival any player in the organization. Early reports say he’s already started building muscle as a professional, which is helpful for his projection on offense. His hit tool carries, with a swing similar to Bobby Witt Jr. — out of the draft he received comps of a “faster Dansby Swanson.” A coach’s son, he has the good face, and should get the starting role in the Holy City and have plenty of time to develop into or above his projection of an above average regular.

7. Jadher Areinamo, INF
22 | R/R | 5’8” | 160
A+ (MIL) | .255/.316/.397 (126 wRC+) 415 PA, 11 HR, 15 SB, 8.2% BB, 11.6% K
AA (TB) | .255/.316/.697 (111 wRC+) 159 PA, 4 HR, 6 SB, 7.5% BB, 11.9% K
VEN | .364/.420/.692 162 PA, 13 HR, 5 SB, 8.6% BB, 12.3% K

Acquired in return for Danny Jansen at the 2025 trade deadline, Arienamo was promoted straight to Double-A by the Rays, and his success at that level carried over into the Venezuealan winter league, where his 1.112 OPS and 13 HR were each the second highest marks in the league and earned him the ROY award. He’s considered to have a high baseball IQ, strong motor, excellent bat control, and defensive flexibility, any one of which could earn him an entertaining major league debut.

Ridiculous play by Jadher Areinamo, after a deflection by Tyson Hardin (who is off to a *very* good start) pic.twitter.com/UECeUrmOBX

— Spencer Michaelis (@smichaelis234) April 9, 2025

8. TJ Nichols, RHP
24 | 6’5” | 190
A+ | 3.63 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 96.2 IP (19 G, 18 GS), 30.4% K, 5.4% BB
AA | 0.97 ERA, 2.27 FIP, 37.0 IP (6 GS), 28.0% K, 6.8% BB

A sixth rounder from 2023, Nichols entered the Rays organization with low mileage and control issues, a match made in development heaven. Fast forward to 2025, and his 68% strike percentage ranked 10th best among all minor league pitchers with 100 innings, according to Baseball America. His breaking ball is a big fish in a little pond thanks to its two-plane movement. By my eye, he has a mid-90’s dead zone-ish fastball with easy, over the top heat, and a classic but inconsistent change up. Despite all his gains in control it’s his command that might hold him back, but he fills the zone and might be able to eat innings, which is enough for a back end starter floor. If you’re buying stock, he’s Kimberly-Clark.

I’m really excited to watch TJ Nichols today. In a loaded group of pitching prospects for the Rays, he’s one of the best, and doesn’t get talked about as much as some of the others. He has a solid 3 pitch mix. Sits mid 90s with his fastball, and has a slider/changeup as his main… pic.twitter.com/PTW1tW2Zbm

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) February 21, 2026

9. Michael Forret, RHP
22 | 6’3” | 190
A+ (BAL) | 1.51 ERA, 2.45 FIP, 59.2 IP (16 G, 15 GS), 33.5% K, 7.5% BB
AA (BAL) | 1.88 ERA, 2.03 FIP, 14.1 IP (3 GS), 15 K, 3 BB

A product of the State College of Florida Manatee – Sarasota (formerly Manatee Junior College), Forret was a well above slot ($450k) 14th round draft choice in 2023 and arrives via the Shane Baz trade. Despite missing some time to a back injury in 2025, his array of fastballs and breaking balls already look major league ready. He seems adept at trying new things, as he picked up a whiff-worthy kick change in 2024, and is already tinkering with a Rays-like sweeper, both through his offseason program at Tread Athletics. He has a low release point (below 6 feet) but a rising fastball, and has — to quote Eric Longenhagen — “sensational feel.” Forret pitches with efficiency and variety, and could climb the ladder quickly in 2026.

Michael Forret with a strikeout on a curveball.

This was one of the more frustrating outings I’ve seen from a pitcher in a long time. He kept slipping on the mound (it was pouring to start his inning) and then on his 31st pitch of the inning he gets hit with a ground ball.… pic.twitter.com/3OW59cfdIC

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) March 20, 2026

10. Santiago Suarez, RHP
21 | 6’2” | ?
A+ | 2.88 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 40.2 IP (10 GS), 26.9% K, 3.6% BB
AAA | 5 ER (9 H, 2 BB, 3 HR) 11.0 IP (2 GS), 9 K

Suarez climbed the ladder to Triple-A to finish a short season, as some triceps/shoulder issues hampered his 2025, but when called upon this Venezuelan strike-thrower has earned the trust of his managers to go out there and pitch. He has two plus fastballs, with easy heat but average ride on the 4-seam, and a hard cutter with tight bite. His only complimentary pitch thus far is a 12-6 curve, which makes it a fairly vertical arsenal. He gets good extension, although I’d be remiss to not mention the double pump in his plant leg that on first glance looks like noise, but has led to evident repeatability. What Suarez boasts in control he might lack in command. Right now it’s a supinator’s profile with an average arm slot. To progress he either needs to add some east-west depth to his arsenal (à la Chris Bassitt), or find ways to unlock the spin rates a touch more (Shane Baz). I’d expect him to slot into Montgomery’s rotation as one of the younger starters for his level.

No pitcher in the minor leagues throws as many strikes with better pure stuff than Santiago Suarez 👀

He's one of 10 breakout pitchers to target for fantasy: https://t.co/LL68PMqTZ1pic.twitter.com/cubu8PPXYE

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) January 29, 2026

11. Anderson Brito, RHP
21 | 5’10” | 155
A+ (HOU) | 3.28 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 49.1 IP (12 GS), 31.1% K, 13.4% BB
AFL | 11.1 IP, 6 H, 7 BB, 22 K

Acquired in the Brandon Lowe trade, Brito has three plus pitches with a fastball that touches 100 with cut-ride, and two breakers in a mid-80s curveball with surprising depth and a mid-80s slider he commands best. He also mixes in a developing low-90s cutter and a scattershot but intriguing mid-80s changeup with strong velocity and movement separation, with some added deception from his smaller frame helping limit hard contact. The concern is control, as he’s posted below-average strike rates in A-ball across 2024–25 and lacks consistent feel outside the slider, leaving him to project as a slightly wild, high-leverage reliever for now. Still, with multiple plus pitches, improved durability, and meaningful command gains, he has mid-rotation starter upside, giving him possibly the widest range of outcomes on this list. Baseball Prospectus describes him as having “Shohei Ohtani’s stuff with Johnny Cueto’s body.”

21 year old Anderson Brito, acquired in the Brandon Lowe trade, showcased his absolutely electric stuff.

Fastball was in the 97-98 range, and the breaking stuff is just silly. 2 Ks for him in his first inning. pic.twitter.com/6RS2s9lQBT

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) March 20, 2026

12. Xavier Isaac, 1B
22 | L/L | 6’3” | 240
AA | .201/.366/.446 (144 wRC+) 175 PA, 9 HR, 1 SB, 19.4% BB, 29.7% K

Isaac had his season cut short large-in-part due to the discovery of a brain tumor, disrupting an otherwise great start to the season that duplicated his cup of coffee in Double-A as a 20-year old, despite some minor arm injuries along the way. He has the best power projection in the system, and if he can hold his own for a full season in 2026 — particularly against southpaws, which is somewhat of a concern — the former first round pick (29th overall, 2021) could see his status restored near the top of the Rays prospect rankings.

This is a freak swing by Xavier Isaac. Whiff is there for sure but there’s too many of these types of swings along with ++ EVs that make me believe he’ll make it work. pic.twitter.com/ichWZmJVSy

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) May 22, 2025

13. Caden Bodine, C
22 | S/R| 5’10” | 200
A (BAL) | .326/.408/.349 (133 wRC+) 49 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, 5 BB, 8 K

Drafted 30th overall in 2025, Bodine was acquired in the Shane Baz trade. He profiles as a relatively safe prospect thanks to 60 grade bat-to-ball skills, and comfortably-plus blocking and receiving behind the plate. There is some concern that his smaller frame limits him to fringe power, but those concerns are off-set by solid plate discipline from both sides of the plate; his sweeter swing is left handed. All catching prospects will see their value proposition shift with the challenge system, but his defensive actions, leadership, and receiving give him real value, projecting him as a solid major league contributor.

14. Brendan Summerhill, OF
22 | L/R | 6’3” | 200
A | .333/.429/.444 (160 wRC+) 42 PA, 0 HR, 5 SB, 6 BB, 5 K

Following an All-Star performance at the Cape Cod summer league, Summerhill exhibited some of the best bat-to-ball skills in NCAA as a junior at Arizona. His draft stock took a minor hit due to injury (broken hand from from punching a cooler) and was drafted 42nd overall, but Summerhill rebounded well with a dominant stop at Charleston to finish the year. Summerhill has plus barrel control, allowing for a high-contact approach for his long swing. He has plus speed as well, which provides a chance to stick in center. Evaluators would like to see more power to complete a five-tool profile. Even if the power doesn’t materialize, it’s an above average contributor’s projection.

15. Slater de Brun, OF
18 | L/L | 5’10” | 187

Drafted 37th overall in 2025, through a draft pick traded by the Rays, de Brun was essentially re-acquired in the Shane Baz trade. Like many Rays outfield prospects he’s not expected to develop much power, but compensates with an ability to hit to all fields, and has the benefit of years to develop. His hit tool rates plus thanks to a quick, compact swing, and his double-plus speed elevates both his baserunning and range in center; he has a solid arm and can stick long term. The key to his development will be improving pitch selection to maximize his power potential. Despite not yet playing in a pro game, he’s a good bet to skip the complex league and debut in Charleston this season.

16. Nathan Flewelling, C
19 | L/R | 6’2” | 200
A | .229/.393/.336 (126 wRC+) 439 PA, 6 HR, 9 SB, 20.3% BB, 27.6% K
A+ | 22 PA, 4 H, 5 BB, 6 K

The 94th overall pick from 2024, Flewelling made his debut at 18 years young and caught a full season (75 C, 26 DH), plus a five game cup of coffee (3 C, 2 DH). Taking the longview, he could grow into 50-60 grade power with 50 grade defense, which makes him one to follow. His plus zone awareness at the plate offsets his lagging contact, and most importantly for the position his ability to call games and frame pitches are already plus. A strong season with the bat at High-A could vault him into Top-100 consideration.

17. Trevor Harrison, RHP
20 | 6’4” | 225
A | 2.61 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 82.2 IP (17 GS), 22.4% K, 10.7% BB
A+ | 3.33 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 24.1 IP (5 GS), 23.8% K, 12.4% BB

Harrison entered the season as Baseball America’s top pitcher in the system thanks to a cleaned up delivery and high heat. He ran into some bumps in the road by running up his pitch count against batters, but he still made it over 100 innings in 22 starts. A power pitcher through and through, his hard slider flirts with cutter classification and could evolve into two distinct pitches down the road. It will be interesting to see how his change up plays as he’s challenged at higher levels, but for now he has premium stuff and the upside of a rotation anchor. (video)

18. Jose Urbina, RHP
20 | 6’3” | 180
A | 2.05 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 92.1 IP (19 GS), 26.4% K, 8.2% BB
A+ | 2 ER (2 HR), 4.0 IP (1 GS), 5 K, 0 BB

Good pitchers grow and adjust, and Urbina has done that consistently at an age young for his level. Physically he has grown in strength, sitting at 96 with the fastball after flashing high octane in 2024, and technically he has grown, refining his dialed up slider and his two-plane curveball into complementary pitches — which lack plus command but are thrown with feel. He shouldered a starter’s workload at 19, and was awarded one additional start at High-A, where he allowed two solo shots and struck out five. Overall, the age, body, and body of work have him on the trajectory of top prospect lists in the near future.

19. Tre’ Morgan, 1B/LF
23 | L/L | 6’0” | 215
AAA | .274/.398/.412 (119 wRC+) 402 PA, 8 HR, 8 SB, 15.9% BB, 19.2% K

Morgan continued to hit without power in 2025, a great discouragement for some evaluators, but his present 50-grade hit tool and feel for the zone allow a major league projection. He continued his improved, quieter two-strike approach in 2025 that built on his success retooling his swing in the AFL last year. The Rays gave Morgan 14 starts in Left Field last season, and Baseball America called the defense “playable,” but his value is tied to his plus-plus defense at First.

20. Jackson Baumeister, RHP
23 | 6’4” | 224
AA | 4.62 ERA, 4.15 FIP (15 GS) 62.1 IP, 19.5% K, 9.6% BB
AFL | 6 ER (1 HR), 9.0 IP (4 G, 3 GS), 10 K, 9 BB

A shoulder injury derailed what should have been Baumeister’s coming out party, as his previously plus breaking ball was expected to carve up Double-A. After a tough start to the year and two months on the sidelines, Baumeister returned in August and salvaged the season with a brilliant finish. The tough luck continued, however, in the Arizona Fall League, where a line drive struck him in the head, but he escaped without significant injury. Currently, Baumeister has taken on a fastball/slutter profile, with a slow curve in his back pocket, and has shown teachability and pitchability over the years. The former Seminole currently thrives on his frequently used major league fastball that may be better challenged by a promotion to Triple-A.

21. Aidan Smith, OF
21 | R/R | 6’2” | 190
A+ | .237/.331/.388 (114 wRC+) 459 PA, 14 HR, 41 SB, 11.5% BB, 31.2% K

Acquired in the Arozarena trade, Smith became the prince who was promised, a five tool athlete with a strong bat, good face, and a preternatural glove in center field. That promise unraveled a bit in 2025, with his strikeout rate rocketing nine percent and his power stroke faltering after facing harder velocities in High-A, causing both his hit and power grades to drop into the 40’s. It was a full transformation into a “center field” profile, but with his ceiling that’s not a compliment. He plays with a fire, but the dip in contact rate left some evaluators feeling burned.

22. Homer Bush Jr., OF
24 | R/R | 6’3” | 215
AA | .301/.375/.360 (122 wRC+) 546 PA, 0 HR, 57 SB, 8.8% BB, 17.9% K

Acquired in the 2024 Jason Adam trade, the starting center fielder at Double-A passed the test of advanced pitching, but just barely. He lacks in-game power due to a lack of use of his lower half in his swing, and he whiffed more often than you can for long term success with a low-power approach. His calling cards are Rays-grade defense and plus-speed, having notably swiped 57 bags in back-to-back seasons.

23. Dom Keegan, C
25 | R/R | 6’0” | 210
AAA | .241/.306/.429 (89 wRC+) 297 PA, 10 HR, 0 SB, 8.1% BB, 30.6% K

Keegan is at an inflection point in his minor league career, having joined the 40-man roster as the third catcher, and overall the jury is still out. Trusted more at first base than backstop at Vanderbilt, the Rays have kept him behind the dish but reports still have his defense below average, and 2025 was a wash after an elbow injury in the Spring sank his season, in particular his bat speed. While the lack of progress on the edges of his game has some evaluators calling into question his once-sure major league projection, he’ll get a long look in Spring Training, where his ability to punish mistakes in the zone may flourish.

24. Gary Gill Hill, RHP
21 | 6’2” | 160
A+ | 3.82 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 136.2 IP (25 GS), 18.8% K, 5.3% BB

A groundballer, Gill Hill was a feather in the cap for the Rays scouting department when snagged in the sixth round in 2022. He raised his armslot in 2024 to great success, but got off to a rocky start in 2025, which muddies the water on his statline. On the whole, GGH has the body and the look to be a major league starter, particularly thanks to a plus fastball in the upper 90’s and plus control, but needs to find a longterm solution for opposite handed hitting as he climbs the ladder. Accordingly, he projects as a reliever until his arsenal finds a plus third pitch.

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25. Brailer Guerrero, OF
20 | L/R | 6’1” | 215
A | .249/.338/.399 (119 wRC+) 222 PA, 6 HR, 9 SB, 11.3% BB, 29.3% K
AFL | 2 H, 0 HR, 2 SB, 3 BB, 16 K, 29 PA

Good news: the $3.7 million 2023 signee made the leap out of the complex league in his final teenage season. Bad News: He was injured yet again, with hamstring and knee injuries limiting him to 51 games for Charleston. The Rays tried to make up for lost time with an aggressive assignment to the AFL that resulted in only two hits in 29 plate appearances. He makes loud contact from a quick, quiet swing which he pre-loads by reaching back for even more power. He appears to make early decisions to swing, leading to a bit extra whiffs against anything off-speed, but that could easily clear up with some consistent playing time.

26. Brayden Taylor, 2B/3B
24 | L/R | 6’0” | 180
AA | .173/.289/.286 (77 wRC+) 437 PA, 8 HR, 17 SB, 14% BB, 27.7% K
AFL | .264/.400/.472 (.384 wOBA) 65 PA, 1 HR, 5 SB, 12 BB, 19 K

Taylor entered 2025 as a top-100 prospect after demolishing High-A (154 wRC+), and left 2025 as an afterthought on prospect lists, although he was selected as an Arizona Fall League “Fall Star” in between, where he worked to keep his chase rate low and his hard hit rate high. The juice must have been worth the squeeze, as the Rays have elected to invite Taylor to major league Spring Training this year.

27. Adrian Santana, SS
20 | S/R | 5’11” | 155
A+ | .263/.324/.326 (94 wRC+) 409 PA, 2 HR, 47 SB, 8.6% BB, 12.0% K

Once a top-ten or so prospect in 2024, Santana fell off our site’s 2025 list after failing to clear as an honorable mention. Why? The switch-hitting slick fielding short stop was the Rays 31st overall pick in 2023 but has delivered sub-100 wRC+ each stop of his career, although that got closer than ever last season, his third as a professional and his third as a teenager in the Rays system. Could expectations be too high on his bat? He has plus athleticism, is learning to wheelhouse, and has “acrobatic” defense at the hardest position in the game, with 98 swiped bags over the last two seasons. What happens if he survives the test of Double-A breaking balls?

28. Austin Overn, OF
23 | L/R | 6’0” | 175
A+ (BAL) | .242/.367/.386 (127 wRC+) 341 PA, 8 HR, 43 SB, 15.5% BB, 28.2% K
AA (BAL) | .266/.326/.427 (112 wRC+) 136 PA, 5 HR, 21 SB, 6.6% BB, 25.0% K

Acquired in the Shane Baz trade, Overn was once a top draft prospect after committing to baseball over football at USC, but surprisingly struggled as a draft-eligible sophomore. That didn’t stop Baltimore from taking him in the third round (97th overall) in 2024. Now a professional, Overn overhauled his swing in the first half of 2025, and earned an early promotion to Double-A for his efforts, where he didn’t look overmatched. His biggest threat is his speed, which raises his floor and gives him an easy projection to a major league bench thanks to plus defensive instincts (BA gave 70’s to his run and field tools). His offensive profile is buoyed by his ability to work the count, but evaluators would like to see him punish fastballs more often for him to be considered a regular.

29. Taitn Gray, 1B/OF/C
18 | S/R | 6’4” | 220

The Rays 86th overall pick in 2025, Gray fell to the third round due to some concern about whether he will stick at catcher, but that buries the lead. Still just 17 at the time of the draft, Gray showed up to the Rays organization and proved his rumored power was real, running exit velocities up to 115 mph from both sides of the plate, although the left handed swing is sweeter. He has plus athleticism, which elevated his bat speed, foot speed, and fluidity — despite his size. It will be interesting to see where the Rays deploy him on defense, but it’s a great bat to dream on.

30. Victor Valdez, SS
17 | R/R | 6’1” | 186

A pretty swing with a low whiff rate earned Valdez a big payday this winter — $3.5 million — with as good of a power projection as you can reasonably ask for from a a teenage bat, having been given a 25+ home run projection by Baseball America, who also praise his plus foot speed, bat speed, and control of the zone. Reports say he has ever improving lateral movements on defense, with smooth actions and a strong arm. If it all clicks, it’s a middle-of-the-order bat on the left side of the infield. At signing, the Rays gave him a comp to Francisco Lindor. It will be interesting to see if his first professional season can solidify the five tool profile.

Honorable Mention

Cooper Flemming, SS
19 | L/R | 6’3” | 190

One of the best high school bats in the 2025 draft, Flemming surprisingly fell into the Rays laps in the second round. He has a too-quiet swing that lacks the load necessary to hit for power, but he’s historically compensated for that with a high contact rate that would have rated him as first round material if his defense projected to stick. The Rays were able to convince him to forgo an education at Vanderbilt by going above slot ($2.3m, Comp-A money).

Dean Moss, OF
19 | L/R | 6’0” | 180

Signed well above slot out of the 2025 draft at No. 67 overall, Moss’s family moved from California to the Tampa Bay Area to enroll Moss at IMG, and it earned him a new-home-town selection. A jack of all trades, Moss’s hit tool shades his best thanks to plus bat speed. His swing is clean, with and the projection for his power over time is major league average. He will have competition internally to stick at center, but may get the first nod in the rookie league.

Émilien Pitre, 2B
23 | L/R | 5’11” | 185
A+ | .268/.356/.393 (122 wRC+) 524 PA, 9 HR, 14 SB, 11.6% BB, 20.4% K

The Rays 58th overall pick in 2024, Pitre has risen on draft boards through a strong performance in the Cape Cod league in 2023, but the power was a real question mark on his profile. Now given a chance to develop as a professional, he wouldn’t be the first to add muscle. His run and hit tools are plus, with a well coiled swing and solid contact in and out of zone. He’s too old to return to High-A and it be viewed as positive. His power stroke will be the key to his success in 2026.

Alex Cook, RHP
25 | 6’2” | 220
AA | 2.30 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 15.2 IP (13 G), 30.5% K, 5.1% BB

The Rays added Cook to the 40-man roster this off-season to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, despite only throwing 20 innings (if you include four appearances in the complex league) after a slow start to the season. Cook attempted to convert to starting in 2024 and succumbed to a should injury, but bounced back in the bullpen in 2025 throwing 99 mph — and he has shown up to camp continuing to pitch with confidence. He has plus control and command, with stuff that leans into his low release point, including a cut-ride fastball and two-plane slider, and an MLB average cutter to prevent platoon slit problems. He should slot into high leverage for Durham and ride the shuttle in 2026.

Fabricio Blanco, SS
17 | S/R | 5’11” | 161

A bat-first middle infielder, the Venezuelan is an elite prospect within the context of the international signing process, with some believing he’s the best Rays signee this off-season, despite gathering only a $1 million bonus. He can barrel up from both sides of the plate, but may settle into a right handed swing in the long term, with quick hands. He has the ability and instincts to stick at short, with a high-IQ approach and gritty demeanor.

Victor Mesa Jr., OF
24 | L/L | 5’11” | 195
AAA (MIA) | .301/.368/.510 (136 wRC+) 171 PA, 7 HR, 4 SB, 9.9% BB, 16.4% K
MLB (MIA) | 6 H (1 HR), 5 BB, 5 K (81 wRC+) 38 PA

This Cuban power bat already made his major league debut with Miami last year after bouncing back from a spring hamstring injury, and was dealt to the Rays in February. He profiles as a fourth outfielder but has an option remaining, so the organization may send him down for regular playing time and one last chance for something more in development. If not, he’s a center field capable on defense, which goes a long way for a platoon bat. In the running for the nicest guy in baseball.

Maykel Coret, OF
18 | R/R | 6’4” | 187
DSL | .273/.294/.370 (115 wRC+) 188 PA, 2 HR, 15 SB, 12.8% BB, 22.3% K

Tampa Bay’s top signee from the 2025 international class, Coret reported tall and young with a lot of projection. His future depends mostly on his hit tool, with prospect evaluators divided on a player that has a long way to go, but the exit velocity (111 mph) and foot speed are plus for his age. Promisingly, after he had a hot start to his professional career, Coret saw his strikeouts elevate in July, but he got them back under control in the final month. A move to the complex league in 2026 would be aggressive.

Alexander Alberto, RHP
24 | 6’8” | 203
A | 1.98 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 13.2 IP (11 G, 0 GS), 35.2% K, 7.4 BB
A+ | 2.83 ERA, 2.99 FIP, 35.0 IP (31 G, 0 GS), 29.0% K, 11.0% BB

Taken in the Rule 5 draft this off-season, this lanky Dominican fireballer was returned to the Rays organization by the White Sox on March 19 after not making their MLB roster. At FanGraphs, Longenhagen notably compared Alberto to “an Andean condor” that needed five years professionally to finally start throwing strikes, while Fegan compared his throwing motion to a “baby giraffe running for the first time,” given his penchant to tumble off the mound. Alberto’s next step will be locating his 100 mph heat at the top of the zone to challenge more advanced hitters, and continue refining his cutter and slider. In camp with the White Sox, Alberto allowed 10 runs (8 earned) over seven appearances (6.2 IP) with seven strikeouts against 12 hits and four walks.

Jonathan Russell, RHP
21 | 6’1” | 180
CPX | 3 H (2 ER), 0 BB, 2 K, 3.0 IP
A | 2.17 ERA, 2.15 FIP, 37.1 IP (25 G, 0 GS), 30.5% K, 7.3% BB

The Rays signed Russell (no relation to yours truly) out of Cuba in May 2023 at 18, slotting him directly into the DSL team where he made the All-Star roster. The Rays brought him stateside in 2024 and it didn’t go great! He started in the FCL again in 2025 though and in two weeks he was at Charleston, getting 15 appearances as their closer and pitching to a 2.17 ERA, striking out 46 batters in 151 faced (30%) with only 11 walks. Where he should have been thinking about Bowling Green next, the Rays decided to give him some chances in the Arizona Fall League, where he closed out two games in six appearances. It’s majority fastball with some slider, mechanics are solid, if anything I’d like to see him try to get his release point closer to the plate. With his age 21 season coming up, he could be something if/when he adds a third pitch.

The Atlanta Braves are taking on the Pittsburgh Pirates in Bradenton, FL as Spring Training is coming to a close. Originally Spencer Strider was supposed to be getting his final tune up, but we got the unfortunate news that he will be starting the season on the IL with an oblique strain.

Strider will start the season on the IL with an oblique strain

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) March 23, 2026

With Strider being scratched, Didier Fuentes will get the start to continue one of the best Spring Trainings of all-time. Over his three appearances he has pitched 9.0 innings with seventeen strikeouts and his only baserunner has been a HBP. If all nine innings were pitched in the same game that would be one HBP away from a perfect game.

The lineup today looks like a variation of one we may see in the regular season against a RHP SP if Baldwin gets the day off.

Monday matchup on the way! pic.twitter.com/dSX0bZkfKQ

— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) March 23, 2026

One player of note that is not in the lineup is Dominic Smith. He seems to be on track to making the roster as a platoon option against RHP, but with bringing in Rowdy Tellez to a minors deal, some questioned if that meant that Smith may be the odd man out. Odds seem to lean that it is not the case that Smith lost his chance to crack the Opening Day roster, but it is interesting to not see him today.

The Braves will face off against Carson Fulmer who has only pitched 4.0 innings this spring. In those 4.0 innings Fulmer has yet to allow a base runner. Both appearances were in save situations, not that it maters much in spring.

Last one of spring 🌴

📻: @KDKARadiopic.twitter.com/BxiwBBZAWF

— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) March 23, 2026

The Pirates are bringing a lineup that could very well be one that their fans will get to see many times throughout the regular season. In the heart of the order we see old friend Marcell Ozuna hitting cleanup. Offseason acquisition Ryan O’Hearn, who only made twenty-one appearances in RF last season, seems to have found his regular position this year and will stay in the outfield today.

Game Notes

Time: 1:05 EDT

TV: None

Radio: ESPN 103.7/WIFN 1340

In years past, we’ve concluded our AL West Previews with the opponents of the Seattle Mariners, letting the 40 in 40 series, various analysis pieces, and our general body of work as a staff stand in for a traditional season preview that, by Opening Day, can feel almost remedial. I cannot stress strongly enough the value of those previews and encourage you to peruse them and return to them over the year.

But readers and commenters have lamented the absence of a formal preview breakdown, and so, for the first time in… a while, the Lookout Landing Season Preview for the Seattle Mariners begins with the bats.

The Sultan of Squat

It’s fitting to ponder the reigning AL West champions from the lineup first. 2025’s M’s position players toted the torch for the ballclub, picking up the slack on the heels of consecutive shortfall seasons largely centered on park-aided pitching excellence. Nothing could’ve been clearer, however, than Cal Raleigh’s 60 homer campaign. Fresh off a five-year extension inked last off-season, the financially-secure backstop delivered one of the greatest seasons by a catcher in baseball history, no qualifier needed. He helmed an injury-riddled pitching staff, anchored a lineup that saw hot streaks rise and fall around him, and came just shy of the first Mariners MVP since Ichiro in 2001. 

While his stand-offish moment with Randy Arozarena at the World Baseball Classic raised eyebrows, the players and club seem settled on the matter with genuine-seeming apologies in both directions. More pertinent is whether Raleigh can approach his astounding .247/.359/.589 line, at a 161 wRC+ with 14 steals in 18 attempts and 9.1 fWAR overall. Raleigh made 121 starts in the regular season, plus all 12 of the M’s playoff tilts, totaling over 1,180 innings be-crouched (second-most in MLB to JT Realmuto). With staggering durability, the best catcher in baseball opened new business opportunities for All-Star Auto Glass to insure hot air balloons, seaplanes, and low-flying UFOs, while also taking a beating behind the plate every night to keep M’s pitchers in the game.

It’s fair to expect some regression, but there wasn’t much fluky about Raleigh’s performance. He barreled the ball at an extraordinarily high rate, aligned his swings from both sides of the plate, and instilled a level of deservedly-fearful avoidant pitching from opponents that allow him to walk to first frequently. Expect more greatness from the Big Dumper in 2026.

Outfield of Stars or Scrubs?

Seattle’s outfield features two former Rookies of the Year and 2025 All-Stars. Their fourth outfielder had a 141 wRC+ in half a year of play, and their fifth posted back-to-back 2+ win seasons before an injury-decimated 2025. So is the Mariners outfield the club’s strongest unit, or its most uncertain?

Julio Rodríguez anchors this group with dependability. 2025 saw Julio cut his strikeout rate significantly while managing more power and essentially the same (extremely high) hard hit rate as a season before. In some ways, it was a different preparation of the same dish, as his xwOBA of .348 and xBA of .274 were literally identical to 2024. But the 25 year old Dominican star shortened his swing just a shade, hitting his stride in the second half after a serviceable first half stabilized by an expansionist policy in the No Fly Zone. Beyond that, most impressive from Julio last year was his capacity to post – he led the American League in plate appearances and received just two full games off. His ferocious performance in the ALCS (1.007 OPS) was a fitting cap to his campaign, and he’ll be asked to cover significant ground once more in 2026.

Randy Arozarena and a combination of Luke Raley and Victor Robles will take the primary roles of the corner spots. Just a single PA shy of Julio, Arozarena was a similarly ferrous individual for the M’s, pacing them crucially in the early months. His chilly back half was aggravating, but nothing physically stood amiss and he seems ready for a strong campaign ahead of a likely trip to free agency next winter. Raley and Robles are a star-crossed pair, both blessed with dynamite athleticism and fueled by exemplary work ethics and unflinching commitment to make every play. Their bodies cannot always fully contain – nor protect – their indefatigable spirits, but as long as the quasi-platoon is healthy they have the capacity to provide in every aspect of the game.

Behind this quartet, with the hoped presumption of Dominic Canzone being politely asked to accept the designation of “hitter” without greater scope (ditto for Rob Refsnyder), Seattle lacks an immediate next option. Seattle’s infield is intriguing and agitating by its combination of high-profile prospects like Cole Young, Colt Emerson, and Michael Arroyo, as well as still-novel depth options like Ryan Bliss and Leo Rivas. Their outfield – at least at the big-league adjacent level – lacks similar potency. Arroyo’s outfield seasoning is a response to this, but it’s early days. If Brennen Davis can carry his scorching spring into the Pacific Coast League with health, he’ll likely find his name called given the inconsistent availability of the Raley-Robles duo in years past.

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Seattle projects for the best catcher and center fielder in baseball. The rest of the lineup is mostly in the middle, but what this M’s club has in spades at the season’s outset is a decency of depth. If Raley misses time, Canzone moves up. J.P. Crawford’s delayed start only means shifting in more Leo Rivas and Cole Young, who’ve both shown promise. This lineup can afford to cycle and rest itself, as the bench bats – other than a dubious running back of Mitch Garver to back up the Big Dumper – are highly competent. This should be one of the best position player groups in baseball. Playing at T-Mobile Park will always suppress pure offensive output, but it’s reasonable to expect one of the best offenses in the game to be the one lifting the trident.

Per MLB.com’s own glossary, xwOBA is described as a metric “formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed.”

“xwOBA is more indicative of a player’s skill than regular wOBA, as xwOBA removes defense from the equation.”

It’s an expected stat, meaning that it’s based more on process than actual outcome, but it’s a measure of the quality of offense generated by batters these days. It’s tracking how hard you hit it, whether it’s a liner or grounder, and how fast the player who hit the ball takes off – all things that are pretty vital to just how effective a team’s overall offense should be over a large enough sample to drown out any noise.

During the 2025 MLB season, the Cincinnati Reds posted a collective team xwOBA of .300. And while that may be a round number that makes you think “huh, that’s average,” in this case it decidedly is not. That .300 xwOBA ranked 28th among the 30 MLB clubs last year, 3rd worst ahead of only the punchless Cleveland Guardians and, yes, the woeful Colorado Rockies.

The 2025 Reds offense was mediocre in a number of metrics beyond that one, even though it’s a pretty straightforward indicator of how lacking their lineup truly was. They ranked just 24th overall in wRC+, 24th in ISO, 28th in Statcast’s Hard Hit %, and dead last in EV90, per FanGraphs, though still managed to rank 7th in BABIP (.298) somehow.

In other words, they didn’t hit the ball very hard, very well, or even end up getting lucky. It was an offense that lacked real thump for the season and was ultimately their downfall next to their pretty spectacular set of starting pitchers.

The question today, though, is whether they’ve done enough to make that significantly better in 2026.

They’ll have a fully healthy Elly De La Cruz again, which will help tremendously. They brought in Eugenio Suárez in free agency to add some legitimate thump to the lineup, and that, too, should boost things. Sal Stewart has all the hallmarks of an offensive powerhouse in the makings, and adding his bat to this group for a full season will hopefully skew it in a positive direction.

They’ll also be getting a full season out of Ke’Bryan Hayes, though. The former Pittsburgh Pirates 3B came over at the trade deadline, and out of the 145 MLB hitters who qualified with enough PA last season, he ranked 145th in xwOBA at just .282. Staring at the bottom of that leaderboard will also, sadly, let you see Matt Mclain (.291, 5th worst), Spencer Steer (.293, 7th worst), and old friend Gavin Lux (.299, tied for 9th worst), a pretty clear indication that either Cincinnati’s overriding philosophy was outright trash or a number of players who are poised to play key parts in 2026 simply weren’t up to par at all last season.

I like to think this offense will be improved from last year, but it’s hardly an overwhelming sentiment the deeper into it I look.

What do you think? Will the 2026 Cincinnati Reds swing the bats with more force and effect than they did just last year?

Today marks the end of our AL Central preview series. The Chicago White Sox may have drawn first pick in the draft lottery, but their 60 wins were only good for the final entrant here. Unlike previous years, though, the White Sox are full of young, interesting hitters. While they aren’t likely to set the world on fire, a few breaking out could have the team pushing .500 like last year’s something or other Athletics.

Projected Record and Team Summary

Yet again, the project systems agree here: the Chicago White Sox are likely to be pretty poor again this year. PECOTA projects a 68-94 record, while the Depth Charts have them at 69-93. Both are sizable improvements from the 2025 squad that went 60-102,, their third straight season with at least 100 losses. Much of that improvement comes from a new, exciting lineup of youngsters with the potential to be pretty solid instead of a group of veteran placeholders plus Luis Robert.

That’s right, after three years of talking about it, the White Sox finally bit the bullet and traded Robert; in return, they got Luisangel Acuna and a low-minors pitching prospect for their mercurial superstar. They also made a shocking strike for NPB star free agent Munetaka Murakami when the rest of MLB decided they actually didn’t want the 26 year old who averaged about 35 HRs per season the last 6 years in Japan. Instead of the huge payday he was expected for, Murakami settled for 2 years with the White Sox to hopefully prove he can hit major league pitching, too. That’s a boon for Chicago.

The Sox also made a few other trades, most notably bringing in Jordan Hicks and David Sandlin in a salary dump from Boston. Otherwise, they spent the winter making marginal improvements in free agency and on the waiver wire. Seranthony Dominguez, Austin Hays, Sean Newcomb, and Erick Fedde are fine veterans to add to a young team and Anthony Kay is an interesting import from overseas. None are likely to impact the team like Murakami should, but they add some much-needed stability to an otherwise unproven team.

Greatest Strength: Young Offense

Don’t look now, but the White Sox had a downright respectable offense in the second half last year. An emphasis on young bats in the draft and in trade returns has mostly panned out. Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery, Kyle Teel, Luisangel Acuna, and Edgar Quero are all players with club control that have a role on a winning team. Montgomery and Teel in particular look like full time starters, as the rookie shortstop hit 21 HRs over 71 games and the rookie catcher posted a .786 OPS after his June 6 debut. They then went and added the best power hitter in the NPB, 26 year old Munetaka Murakami, on a two year deal after his market failed to develop. We’ll see how prescient concerns about his whiff rates really are this season. Plus, Braden Montgomery, a power hitting college outfielder from the 2024 draft class, is poised for a quick ascent through the upper minors if Chicago so chooses.

The rest of the lineup isn’t particularly special. Chicago has done a nice job of acquiring former top prospects who have struggled for cheap, like Curtis Mead or Miguel Vargas, so their bench has a surprising amount of upside. At the same time, Lenyn Sosa, Austin Hays, and Andrew Benintendi are veteran roster filler. The best case scenario for these guys is a minor trade at the deadline, hopefully clearing a roster spot for a prospect at the same time. Otherwise, their job is to not be horrible and try to show the rookies the ropes as they matriculate up from the minors. This is almost certainly a few pieces short of a good lineup, but there’s enough here to be very, very interesting.

Greatest Weakness: Starting Pitching

If you had to squint to see an offensive core, you’ll be looking even harder for the pitching staff. The major league roster is about 8 arms short of competent. The starting rotation has little ceiling or depth, as Rule 5-breakout Shane Smith was the only starter under a 4.00 ERA last year. Chicago did backfill with some veteran SPs, Erick Fedde and Anthony Kay, but that’s about it. Davis Martin is a fourth year MLB starter who doesn’t get enough strikeouts to offset his walks and his hard contact and Sean Burke had a 4.59 ERA as a starting pitcher. As a team, the White Sox struggled with walks and home runs, an unenviable combo, and did very little to remedy that.

The bullpen isn’t in much better shape. Seranthony Dominguez, Jordan Hicks, and Jordan Leasure are solid bullpen arms, but at this point in their careers profile a few pegs lower in the totem pole than closer and main setup arms for a contender would. Otherwise, the bullpen should have a lot of moving parts aside from Jedixson Paez, a depth starter Chicago nabbed from Boston in the Rule 5 draft. When prospects like Noah Schultz, Hagan Smith, and Nick Sandlin are ready, expect them to push some of the current starters into the bullpen. Until that happens, this is a pretty uninspiring group.

X-Factor: Munetaka Murakami and Noah Schultz

Sometimes the X-Factor decision is easier than others. Picking Murakami here is one of those: I’m not sure there’s another player in the division, or maybe all of the majors, with a wider range of outcomes and expectations. Murakami started the winter as an international superstar and a top free agent but found shockingly little interest from American teams after a strikeout-heavy performance in the NPB. Of course, he also hit 22 home runs in 56 games, 5thmost in the league despite playing less than half the season.

After almost every team declined to pursue him in earnest, the White Sox swooped in with a 2 year, $34M contract. Murakami reportedly has struggled with velocity, but he didn’t see much of it overseas and has hit for plenty of power in Spring Training so far. The ceiling here is something like Kyle Schwarber or Giancarlo Stanton, where huge power and a good batting eye cover for some serious contact issues. If the strikeouts become untenable, the whole profile could collapse to something like 2021 Keston Hiura. We won’t know until we know, but adding this much upside for only $17M a year is very smart for a team with no pressure to win this year.

There were a lot of candidates for the second name here, but I chose Noah Schultz because the White Sox desperately need some pitching. In 2025, their best pitcher was Rule 5 pick Shane Smith, and while breakouts from the Rule 5 are always a boon, it isn’t a good sign if your best pitcher has a 3.81 ERA. Schutlz is a candidate to debut this year and add immediate upside to Chicago’s staff. As a 6’10 lefty, the Randy Johnson comparisons are inevitable and unfair, but Schultz is no slouch. His 70-grade slider leads the way of a strikeout-heavy profile and he can get up to 98 MPH on his heater. He can get out of sync and rack up a lot of walks, but the stuff is irrefutable. He still needs some refining in the minors before they unleash him on the league. Once he proves himself against AAA hitters and shows some command development, he’ll be an exciting arm for Chicago to build around.

For the first time in a while, the Chicago White Sox are an interesting baseball team. The makings of an offensive core are in place; an unsuspecting pitcher is liable to get burned if they try to sleepwalk their way through Chase Meidroth, Colson Montgomery, and Munetaka Murakmi gauntlet in the first inning. The pitching is still in tough shape outside of All-Star Shane Smith, but help is on the way from Hagan Smith and Noah Schultz. It’s a shallow roster, to be sure, but there’s enough good players that Chicago posting a solid season and becoming more irritant than pushover should no longer feel like a surprise.

It's been an eventful decade of Mets baseball, with the 2016 through 2025 seasons running the gamut. 

Below, we rank every season in terms of not just performance, but enjoyment...

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10. 2017: 70-92, 4th in NL East

This was not only the worst Mets team of the decade, but one of the most disappointing. After the club went to the World Series in 2015 and made the playoffs again in 2016, this version faltered badly. 

It was brought down by a subpar offense, a post-thoracic outlet surgery Matt Harvey not being the same, and an especially poor season from Zack Wheeler -- who had a career-worst 5.21 ERA and also dealt with injuries, including a stress fracture that ended his year in August.

9. 2020: 26-34, 4th in NL East

The COVID season was shortened, strange, and distant, with fans not allowed in any ballpark for most of it.

On the field, the Mets won their first game and then spent the rest of the season at or below .500. They were within 3.0 games of first place as late as Aug. 29, and had some fun moments (including Amed Rosario's walk-off homer at Yankee Stadium), but this was a team and season to forget.

8. 2023: 75-87, 4th in NL East

Coming off a 101-win campaign the year prior, the Mets let Jacob deGrom go to the Rangers via free agency and added Justin Verlander to pair with Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation. But following a 14-7 start, things fell apart.

After falling to 36-46 on June 30, New York went on a bit of a run to push their record to 50-55 on the eve of the trade deadline. But that wasn't enough to stave off a sell-off that sent Verlander to the Astros and Scherzer to the Rangers. 

7. 2021: 77-85, 3rd in NL East

This squad had the pieces to be competitive, and they had a solid first half of the season, going 48-40.

But they struggled after the All-Star break in Francisco Lindor's first year in Queens, due in part to an injury that ended Jacob deGrom's season after his start on July 7, when he had a 1.08 ERA and was steamrolling toward a truly historic season.

6. 2018: 77-85, 4th in NL East

The 2018 Mets had the most nondescript offense of the last decade, which was devoid of stars and had just one batter with more than 18 home runs (Michael Conforto's 28). Still, the team started the year 13-4 before faltering and falling out of contention.

They had a very good rotation fronted by an otherworldly deGrom, who led the majors with a 1.70 ERA over 217 innings as he won his first Cy Young award. The deGrom factor alone made the team interesting.

5. 2025: 83-79, 2nd in NL East

The 2025 Mets, with Juan Sotoin tow and fresh off an NLCS run, had the best record in baseball in the middle of June and appeared like a sure bet to reach the postseason.

Instead, New York suffered a slow collapse (with the starting rotation being the main culprit) and wound up missing the playoffs. A few months later, the core was broken up, with Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz leaving via free agency, and Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil traded.

4. 2016: 87-75, 2nd in NL East, lost in Wild Card Game

A year after reaching the World Series for the first time since 2000, the Mets had high hopes and a vaunted rotation. But the starting staff was shaken when Harvey needed surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome.

Still, the club persevered, led by Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Asdrubal Cabrera on offense, and a still-emerging Noah Syndergaard, who had a 2.60 ERA and struck out 218 in 183.2 innings.

But Syndergaard and the Mets were taken down by Madison Bumgarner and the Giants in the Wild Card Game at Citi Field.

3. 2019: 86-76, 3rd in NL East

The 2019 Mets provided a breath of fresh air sandwiched between four losing seasons.

With an offense led by Alonso, who hit a rookie record 53 home runs, Conforto (.856 OPS), and J.D. Davis (.895 OPS), and a rotation was again headed by deGrom -- who won his second Cy Young in as many seasons -- this club was fun and meshed well.

They went on a tremendous run over the summer, ripping off a 27-9 stretch to push their record to 67-60 and put themselves in playoff contention on Aug. 22. Ultimately, they couldn't get over the hump.

2. 2022: 101-61, 2nd in NL East, lost in Wild Card Series

The 2022 Mets were dominant until they weren't, as they squandered the NL East late in the season when they were swept on the road in Atlanta -- when just one win would've given them a stranglehold on the division title. With the air out of the balloon, New York fell in three games to the Padres in the Wild Card Series at Citi Field.

Still, a team that wins 101 games is a rarity. And this club got huge seasons from Alonso, Lindor, McNeil (in his batting title year), Nimmo, Starling Marte, Scherzer (2.29 ERA), and Edwin Diaz (who had one of the most dominant relief seasons ever).

If Marte was fully healthy in the postseason, and if Scherzer didn't throw a clunker in Game 1 against the Padres, perhaps things turn out differently.

1. 2024: 89-73, 3rd in NL East, lost in NLCS

After hovering around .500 for most of the season, the OMG Mets caught fire at the end of August and rode a 20-9 stretch to a Wild Card spot that was only clinched when they vanquished the Braves in Game 1 of a doubleheader in Atlanta on the day after the regular season ended -- with Lindor's monster home run being the difference.

The Mets then outlasted the Brewers in the Wild Card Series, with Alonso's three-run homer in the ninth inning erasing a 2-0 deficit in Game 3.

In the NLDS, the Mets took the Phillies down in four games -- punctuated by Lindor's grand slam -- clinching a playoff series at Citi Field for the first time ever.

The magical run came to an end against the Dodgers in the NLCS, with the Mets falling in six games.

Tyler Glasnow was at his best on Sunday, striking out 11 Angels in five strong innings. His curveball was especially electric, finishing off all 11 of those strikeouts. He induced 13 swinging strikes among the 36 curves he threw, the former matching the most whiffs on that pitch he’s ever gotten in a game, way back on August 25, 2020.

Tyler Glasnow notched ELEVEN strikeouts in 5 innings …

ALL 11 came on the curveball 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/y3V10B6hBi

— MLB (@MLB) March 23, 2026

Most importantly, it’s been a relatively normal spring training for Glasnow, who had a standard gradual build up during Cactus League play, pitching into the fifth inning twice before completing five innings on Sunday in Anaheim.

He’s in line to start next Saturday at Dodger Stadium, the finale of a season-opening three-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks. But how many starts will he make this season?

Glasnow pitched 90 1/3 innings and made 18 starts last regular season, but most importantly he was healthy down the stretch and for all of the postseason, after missing the playoffs in his first year with the Dodgers in 2024. Glasnow over the last three seasons averaged 114 2/3 innings and just over 20 starts, and his 21, 22, and 18 starts over the previous three years are his top-three such seasons of his career.

If there’s a caveat heading into this season, outside of the usual injury concern, it’s that Glasnow’s 11.7-percent walk rate last season was his worst in eight years, and much higher than the 7.1-percent walk rate over 2023-24.

Here are his projections entering his age-32 season.

Tyler Glasnow 2026 projections

• Marcel: 118 IP, 3.66 ERA, 28-percent K rate
• Steamer: 24 starts, 139 IP, 3.61 ERA, 28.1 K%
• ZiPS: 20 starts, 105 1/3 IP, 3.76 ERA, 28.6 K%
• THE BAT: 22 starts, 129 IP, 3.97 ERA, 27.2 K%
• OOPSY: 24 starts, 135 IP, 3.39 ERA, 28.2 K%
• PECOTA: 26 starts, 139 2/3 IP, 3.69 ERA, 26.6 K%

Today’s question is how many starts and innings do you expect from Tyler Glasnow in the 2025 regular season?

Hey. Hey! I thought today was when we were gonna talk about the Braves Are Doomed, Reynaldo Lopez Edition. Then this happens.

Strider will start the season on the IL with an oblique strain

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) March 23, 2026

Not too much more to say, really. Injured List, meet Spencer Strider. Spencer Strider, meet the Injured List. Oh, what’s that? You’re already acquainted? In fact, you were already acquainted in these exact circumstances late in the 2022 season, when Strider was shut down with an oblique issue for the last few weeks of the season (but returned to make a playoff start). Well, in that case…

In any case, this probably won’t help the feeling of gross stuff in the gorge for those of you fully subscribed to the Braves Are Doomed feed. This does maybe make the guys-who-are-out-of-options roster math a little easier for the Braves coming out of Spring Training, but it’s also not clear how long Strider will be out. Again, this could be a very minor setback, but Strider’s had enough issues in his brief career so far that nothing seems “very minor” as far as his availability and effectiveness are concerned. Obliques are often talked about as lingering, but that tends to be in the context of hitters — the Braves did feel comfortable giving Strider about two weeks off in 2022 with a similarly-described issue and then throwing him right into a playoff start afterwards. (He was not very good in that start, but there’s no useful way to pin that on the injury or missed time.)

The runway just keeps widening for Didier Fuentes to make some noise. Or, the Braves may pick up some roster cut for additional depth. Maybe this forces Martin Perez into early season plans. Stay tuned.

At this time, the Opening Day rotation is now six Bryce Elders. (Okay, fine, it’s technically Chris Sale, Grant Holmes, Reynaldo Lopez, Elder, and… Fuentes? Perez? What’s Rich Hill doing?)

Team news

[Dbacks.com] Ross, Loáisiga make club as D-backs announce 3 more cuts – Left-hander Philip Abner was optioned to Triple-A Reno while catcher Aramis Garcia and infielder Jacob Amaya were reassigned to Minor League camp. In addition, the Diamondbacks have informed right-handed relievers Joe Ross and Jonathan Loáisiga that they have made the team and will have their contracts purchased. That seemingly sets the 13-man position-player roster with Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, Jordan Lawlar, Nolan Arenado, Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, Carlos Santana, Pavin Smith, Gabriel Moreno, James McCann, Ildamaro Vargas, Jorge Barrosa and Tim Tawa.

[Yahoo] Two veteran relievers clinch jobs on Diamondbacks’ Opening Day roster – Loaisiga’s inclusion was long anticipated. Signed to a minor-league deal in January, he showcased impressive stuff, including a fastball in the upper-90s, and posted solid results during spring training, logging a 3.86 ERA in seven appearances. “I thought he had some of the better stuff in our pen,” Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen said. “We’re trying to improve the aggregate stuff that we have going out there, from a (swing and) miss standpoint, and he looked good. He had a good spring.” Ross had been trending toward making the club in recent weeks as it became apparent that his ability to go multiple innings in relief appealed to the Diamondbacks.

[Arizona Sports] Abner optioned to Triple-A, Diamondbacks down to 1 lefty reliever – Philip Abner has been optioned to the Triple-A Reno Aces, leaving Brandyn Garcia as the lone lefty arm in bullpen barring a late addition. There was recent precedent for the club adding a lefty to its bullpen room so close to Opening Day, Arizona signing Jalen Beeks one day before the first game of the 2025 season. The Diamondbacks also reassigned catcher Aramis Garcia and infielder Jacob Amaya to minor league camp, which brought its camp to 33 players. Each MLB team has until Opening Day to trim its roster down to 26.

[SI] Gabriel Moreno Silences Injury Concerns in Unbelievable 2-Homer Game – [Moreno] played his first game behind home plate since he was forced to shut down throwing due to right forearm tightness. With no structural damage revealed, the hope was always that Moreno would be healthy for opening day. The first of Moreno’s homers traveled 445 feet, coming off the bat at 108 MPH. That, apparently, was not enough, as he followed that blast with a 110 MPH, 459-foot homer just one inning later. The second home run fell just shy of his 460-footer from earlier this spring. That is still the longest ball Moreno has hit.

And, elsewhere…

[Chicago Tribune] ‘Just feels like you’re on fire’: How Cubs and White Sox players adjust to record-breaking heat in Arizona – Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas kept it all in perspective. “We need to enjoy these couple of weeks when we’re here in the heat because it’s going to be cold (in Chicago),” Vargas told the Tribune last week. Vargas is feeling at home with the conditions. “I’m from Cuba, it’s hot out there every time,” he said. “Hydration” was the key word for [manager Will] Venable.“We have all of our trainers and strength coaches with all the resources they need to support these guys with hydration,” Venable said last week. “In between every half inning, you hear five different people yelling, ‘Hydrate.’

[ESPN] Phillies ace Cristopher Sanchez agrees to new 6-year contract – The team announced Sunday that the deal will start in 2027 and includes a team option for 2033. Financial terms were not disclosed, but sources told ESPN that the deal is worth approximately $103 million in new money. Sanchez will make $3.5 million in salary for 2026 before the new deal starts next year. The contract supersedes the deal Sanchez signed before the beginning of last year — one that paid him $47 million over four years, including two team option years. Sanchez went 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA in 32 starts last season and struck out a career-high 212 batters. He’s 30-21 over his five-year career.

[MLB] Experts predict all of this season’s stats leaders – With Spring Training winding down and Opening Day just days away, intriguing questions abound, from which teams will bounce back after subpar seasons last year to whether anyone will be able to dethrone the reigning MVP and Cy Young Award winners. One of the big ones to consider at the dawn of a new regular season is: Which players will lead their league in each major statistical category? We asked 57 MLB.com staff members to weigh in, and here are the results [Jim: No D-backs are mentioned. #SavedYouAClick]

Finally, here’s one from yesterday’s This Day in Baseball which I feel deserves more explicit coverage. It is still March 22 when I’m writing this so it is technically still This Day in Baseball. 🙂

As the Red Sox approach Opening Day, it’s time to start taking a look at the other American League playoff contenders. Next up, a team that’s led by the best pitcher on the planet.

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What’s this team’s deal?

For the past few seasons, The Tigers have been Tarik Skubal and the Skubettes. Fans, who are for some reason obsessed with “value”, have been wishing a Skubal trade into existence for multiple seasons in a row now. The Tigers instead have opted to keep Skubal and try to win with him, which has resulted in ALDS defeats in two straight seasons. Last season, in his two ALDS starts, he threw seven innings of two-run baseball and six innings of one-run baseball. They lost each game by a final score of 3-2. What’s the point of having incredible baseball players if you’re not going to try to make a run with them? Sure, they might not be able to retain Skubal in free agency (although they could if they wanted to. Tigers ownership group, Illitch Holdings, generated over five billion in revenue in 2025, according to Forbes), but having Skubal right now is more fun than talking about prospects, so I applaud them for keeping him and giving it a go.

I did gloss over the fact that one year after a miraculous post-trade deadline run to make the postseason, the Tigers choked away a 15.5-game lead in the American League Central to the Cleveland Guardians. In a twist of cruel fate for Guardians’ fans, however, they played the Tigers in the Wild Card round, and Skubal struck out 14 over 7.2 innings in game one. The Tigers went on to win the series, 2-1, and the whole world kind of forgot about the meltdown.

How good are they?

They’re pretty much exactly as good as they need to be. The Tigers have the luxury of playing in the American League Central, where nobody is really that good. Detroit ranked 11th in runs per game, 14th in runs allowed per game, and 15th in fielding run value last season. They were basically middle of the pack across the board, which led them to 30 wins in the division, 87 wins overall, and the final Wild Card spot.

Offensively, they’re a young team that used home runs to power their offense. Detroit struck out at the fourth-highest rate in baseball, but hit the tenth-most home runs. There isn’t one player in the lineup that scares you to death, but they’re fairly solid top to bottom. Dillon Dingler was the only player to accumulate more than four fWAR, largely due to his defense behind the plate. Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter hit 36, 31, and 26 home runs, respectively. In total, they had nine players hit double-digit home runs. Infielder Zach McKinstry made a leap and put together his best career season, while Gleyber Torres quietly continued to produce offensively.

The rotation is headlined by Skubal, who is the favorite to three-peat as American League Cy Young. If I were ranking pitchers, I’d put Skubal at the top of the list, but if you want to pick Paul Skenes or Garrett Crochet, I won’t stop you. Behind Skubal is the new big addition in Framber Valdez. Valdez is super reliable, having thrown at least 175 innings in each of the last four seasons with an ERA between 2.82 and 3.66. He has a sinker-heavy approach that’s tried and true for him, and should continue to work so long as his velocity holds up. They also brought Justin Verlander back, which might not work, but at least it’s a fun story. Casey Mize is a strike-thrower who can dominate on a given day when everything is working. Jack Flaherty is similar, although it’s fair to wonder if his health and velocity will hold up. It’s a really solid five-man group, but injuries to Jackson Jobe, Troy Melton, and Reese Olson are seriously detrimental to the depth. Drew Anderson was brought over from the KBO and is intriguing. Sawyer Gibson-Long has some skills, but has never shown them consistently at the major league level. Keider Montero has a good sinker to throw to righties, but nothing to get lefties out with. There are some options, but each comes with questions.

The bullpen for Detroit should help them win games. They have three closers on the roster in Kenley Jansen (old friend), Kyle Finnegan, and Will Vest. Jansen figures to handle the ninth because he’s Kenley Jansen, with the other two working in the seventh and eighth. Troy Melton has “relief ace” potential when healthy, but he’s out for at least a couple of months. Tyler Holton is a solid left-handed option.

Overall, it’s more of the same for the Tigers. The offense has questions, but they bring back most of the same lineup and are looking for their young players to continue to improve. The rotation is solid, and the bullpen should be able to protect leads. While I don’t expect them to win 95 games, another 87-win season feels in the cards.

Who’s their most likable player?

The correct answer is Tarik Skubal, but he took some heat after leaving Team USA during the World Baseball Classic, so I’ll look at someone else. Jack Flaherty is very involved in the community and social activism causes. He’s also very animated on the mound, talking to himself almost all of the time. The real answer is Tarik Skubal, though. He keeps 100 mph fastballs in his back pocket for fun.

Who’s their least likable player?

It’s gotta be Framber Valdez after that stunt he pulled last season, where he threw at his own catcher. He can pretend it wasn’t on purpose, but it sure looked like it was.

Schedule against the Red Sox

The Red Sox and Tigers play seven games over the first two months of the season. The first four are at Fenway from April 17 to April 20. If you like knick-knacks and thingamabobs, you’ll want to be there. Each of the four games has a promo attached. We start with Brava Night, followed by Diary of a Wimpy Kid day, Margaritaville Day, and a nice windbreaker giveaway on Marathon Monday.

A couple of weeks later, the Red Sox go to Detroit for a three-game set, including a Bark at the Park night and a Tigers-branded euchre deck giveaway. After that, we’re done with the Tigers save for a potential postseason matchup.

Season Prediction

I think the Tigers win the American League Central this year. I have questions about the rotation depth, because getting 30 starts a piece out of Verlander and Flaherty seems like wishful thinking, but the lineup should be just as strong as last year, if not better, and the bullpen is talented at the back. I’ll put them at 88 wins, one game ahead of the Kansas City Royals in the American League Central. As for the postseason, I’ll say they lose in the ALDS for a third year in a row.

Since I can remember, the answer to the question, What is the Orioles’ weakest link? was always the same: the starting rotation. This winter brought high hopes for a top-of-the-market splashy signing of the kind that would put the conversation fully to rest: such a signing failed to materialize. Nonetheless, the mood around the rotation is unusually confident. “This might be the most underrated rotation in all of baseball,” said Opening Day starter Trevor Rogers. Free-agent addition Chris Bassitt added, “I would rather be a stealth bomber, so to speak, and not have anybody talk about us. Just surprise people.”

It’s not the flashiest group out there, but a starting rotation of Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, and Zach Eflin looks better, perhaps, than anything Baltimore has put out there in recent memory. This group has an extremely high floor.

The picture came into focus on Saturday when the team made the shocking announcement that Dean Kremer was being optioned to Triple-A Norfolk to start the season. With the longtime Oriole starter required to stay there until April 9, the move confirmed what some had suspected: Baltimore is going with five men, not six, to start the season. Here’s who those five are and what to expect from them.

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Trevor Rogers, LHP

Rogers is your Opening Day starter… which is a sentence that would have seemed impossible a year ago. Dealt from Miami to Baltimore at the 2024 trade deadline, Rogers posted a homely 7.11 ERA in four starts before getting sent down to Norfolk. Then in 2025, something clicked—in an astonishing way. Though he started the season late, his 1.81 ERA and 0.90 WHIP across 18 starts broke a 71-year-old franchise record and proved good enough for ninth-place in the AL Cy Young vote. He’s continued to look good this spring, and will get the ball on Opening Day, on March 26 against the Twins at Camden Yards.

The concern is the innings total—he threw just 109 2/3 last season—and whether the electric results hold over a full season. But why would you hand the ball to anyone else right now?

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Kyle Bradish, RHP

It’s strange—but nice—to turn to the No. 2 slot in the rotation and find Kyle Bradish, the brilliant strikeout artist who’s posted a 2.78 ERA and 268 strikeouts across 44 starts since the beginning of 2023. Yes, that stretch was interrupted by Tommy John surgery, but Bradish returned last year and looked very much like himself: a 2.53 ERA and 47 strikeouts in six starts.

The surgery risk is real, but Bradish is brilliant enough that a lesser Bradish would still be brilliant. And so far this spring, the evidence (a 2.35 ERA, 12 K’s and a .207 opposing average in 15.1 innings) says Bradish is back. A healthy Bradish gives this staff a genuine two-headed monster at the top.

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Shane Baz, RHP

The Baz acquisition was the most aggressive, and interesting, move of the offseason, costing four prospects and a competitive balance pick. It’s a pretty price to pay for a 26-year-old who posted a 4.87 ERA in 31 starts for Tampa Bay in 2025, and hadn’t thrown a fully healthy season in four years at the major league level.

This is an extremely high-risk, high-reward acquisition (kind of good, come to think of it, to say that about a move made by this front office). The 2017 first-rounder was the Rays’ No. 1 prospect in 2022, having struck out a whopping 113 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings between Triple-A and Double-A the prior season. At one point, Baz was measured as one of 12 Major Leaguers with a fastball averaging at least 97 mph and 11.4 inches or less of vertical movement, putting him on a list that at one time included Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole and Jacob deGrom. Whether the 26-year-old still has that kind of stuff remains to be seen; at least it can be said that, for a Orioles’ front office that doesn’t like to spend on pitching, the king’s ransom they shipped out for Shane Baz suggests they are pretty darn excited.

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Chris Bassitt, RHP

Bassitt is this rotation’s version of a utility infielder: not flashy, deeply reliable, almost always there. His five-year average of 176 innings and 30-plus starts tells us pretty much what we’re getting: a professional who takes the ball, throws strikes, and keeps his team in games. His 3.66 ERA over that stretch is comfortably above average. Baltimore could have done much worse than slotting Bassitt into the back end of a rotation that has genuine upside at the top.

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Zach Eflin, RHP

Outside of Baz, Eflin may be the rotation’s wild card, and not in a bad way. After back surgery last August cut short his 2024 season, he finished those final two months with a 2.60 ERA in nine starts before going under the knife. He’s been cleared and, by Mike Elias’s own account, looks excellent (this is the reason he leapfrogged Dean Kremer in the rotation). Forty plate appearances of elite production followed by offseason surgery is not a large sample to bet on, but Eflin at his best is a genuine asset.

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And Kremer?

The Kremer demotion was striking—he’s logged over 600 innings for Baltimore and had earned himself a rotation spot. But with Eflin healthy and the April schedule full of off-days, Mike Elias framed it as a calendar decision rather than a capability verdict. The six-man rotation talk that dominated fan discussion this winter isn’t dead; Elias explicitly left the door open for revisiting it as the season develops. Kremer may be stung by this, but he’s hopefully the answer to the next injury or busy stretch, not a casualty of numbers.

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FanGraphs projects 11.8 WAR from this group, tied for 16th in baseball and 10th in the American League. That’s a middle-of-the-pack projection, which is probably the honest baseline. The optimistic scenario looks much more exciting: Rogers sustains last year’s brilliance, Bradish returns to his 2024 form, Baz develops into the pitcher Tampa Bay always hoped he’d be. If all that goes right, it pushes this staff into a genuinely competitive tier. A few things would have to go right. It would be surprising, but hardly impossible.

Opening Day is just days away, which means it’s almost time to officially turn the page on the 2025 season and move on to 2026. But until those games begin, the specter of 2025 will hang over everything and define the narratives for the start of the season. These are some of the numbers that will frame those narratives as the 2026 season gets underway.

96

This one may seem obvious, but 96 is the number of games the Phillies won in 2025. They once again improved on the previous season’s win total but also once again stalled in the NLDS. The team has returned many of the same players, but they have widely been projected to win fewer games in 2026. Still, they are expected to once again be in the postseason, the question will be whether it be as a third straight NL East champion or as a Wild Card.

3

The last time the Phillies had a rookie hitter accumulate at least 3 WAR was Odúbel Herrera in 2015. You have to go even further back to find a rookie pitcher who accomplished the feat, with the last being Vance Worley in 2011. Justin Crawford and Andrew Painter will perhaps be the two players facing the most scrutiny as the 2026 season begins. The Phillies opted not to make any major, sweeping changes to their roster after another early postseason exit, rather they decided to look internally for a spark.

For the team to become the perennial, sustainable contender that ownership wants, you have to receive meaningful contributions from your farm, something the Phillies haven’t really seen much of over the last decade. The 2026 season doesn’t rest solely on the likes of Crawford, Painter, and potentially Aidan Miller, but the Phillies long-term competitive window will only remain open if some of these players become real big-league contributors.

43

That’s the percentage of pitches in the strike zone seen by Bryce Harper in 2025, the lowest of any qualified hitter. You have no doubt heard that exact phrase before, as it’s been a hot button topic in an offseason that also featured a rather public dispute/spat/kerfuffle between Harper and Dave Dombrowski. That disagreement stemmed from the latter’s comments about Harper not having an elite season in 2025. Harper and his agent Scott Boras pointed directly and indirectly towards lineup protection as one of the causes of his down season.

That percentage of pitches in the zone is unlikely to change in 2026, as Harper’s career average of pitches in the zone is 44.2%. The key to Harper recapturing that “elite” status and possibly the key to the entire Phillies season is if Harper can do more damage on those hittable pitches while not chasing outside of the zone, something he did at a higher rate than the previous two years.

149.2

That’s the number of innings Zack Wheeler threw for the Phillies last year, his fewest in a non-pandemic season since joining the Phillies. Wheeler’s season was of course cut short by a blood clot in August that later resulted in the Phillies ace needing thoracic outlet surgery. The Phillies weathered the storm in Wheeler’s absence thanks in no small part to the emergence of Cristopher Sánchez as an ace in his own right. But the Phillies rotation depth is much thinner this year, as Ranger Suárez is now in Boston and the back of the rotation is expected to be helmed by rookie Painter. Behind him and swingman Taijuan Walker, there is not much depth to speak of. The Phillies can’t afford to suffer another major injury beyond Wheeler, and they will need him to be a workhorse once he is able to rejoin the rotation.

Had we written about Sean Manaea’s upcoming season earlier in spring training, the premise would’ve been a bit more straightforward. Coming off a season that saw him spend more time on the injured list than on the mound, Manaea would be looking to be healthy and bounce back from a 2025 season that saw him finish with a 5.64 ERA.

That’s still true, of course, but with the Mets having set their rotation for the beginning of the 2026 season, Manaea isn’t in it. Instead, the 34-year-old lefty will begin the year as the second part of a piggyback plan that will see him pitch multiple innings in relief of one or more of the Mets’ five starting pitchers. Assuming everyone stays healthy, he’ll presumably slot into the Mets’ rotation if and when the team deploys a six-man rotation.

Velocity is of concern, at least from our perspective as fans. Both Manaea and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza insist that they aren’t concerned about a fastball that’s averaged 88 miles per hour in spring training games. Having averaged just shy of 93 miles per hour with the fastball in his first season with the Mets in 2024 per Brooks Baseball, Manaea saw the pitch dip a bit to 91.5 miles per hour last year as he pitched through a loose body issue in his pitching elbow.

When the offseason began, surgery was one of the options on the table for Manaea, but he opted not to have surgery and came into camp feeling good. And in the innings Grapefruit League innings he threw, he managed a 3.72 ERA, albeit with a 5.11 FIP thanks to the pair of home runs he gave up in just 9.2 innings of work.

Of the projections published at FanGraphs, a couple have Manaea with a sub-4.00 ERA this season, but the general consensus projects a low-4s ERA in about 125 innings of work. That certainly wouldn’t be what the Mets were hoping to see when they inked Manaea to a three-year, $75 million deal coming off his incredible second half of the 2024 season, but it would still be helpful to the team.

If his velocity doesn’t come back and he struggles like he did last year, well, that’d be a bummer for Mets fans. We’ll have to wait and see what happens in relatively sparse outings early in the season. And if those appearances go reasonably well, Manaea might get his first start of the season during the Mets’ first full home stand of the year as the team hosts the Diamondbacks and A’s from April 7 to 12 before flying to Los Angeles for three games against the Dodgers without an off day in between.