Category: Sports News

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

The Seattle Mariners have struggled on the road this season, winning just seven of 18 games.

While they’re favored to get a win tonight, my Mariners vs. Astros predictions expect the home team to keep it close.

Let’s break down my daily MLB picks for May 11.

Who will win Mariners vs Astros today: Astros +1.5 (-135)

The Houston Astros have been very effective against right-handed pitching. They rank third in wOBA and OPS, trailing only the Yankees and Braves in those categories — the two highest scoring teams in the majors.

Their problem is not generating runs, but preventing them. That shouldn’t be an issue today with Peter Lambert on the mound.

He has allowed just six runs through 22 1/3 innings of work, and just held the powerhouse Dodgers scoreless over seven innings.

While there are signs he’s due for a little bit of regression, the Seattle Mariners (21st in runs per game, 27th in average) are unlikely to force the issue.

COVERS INTEL: Peter Lambert owns a 22.2% hard-hit rate, the lowest among today’s projected starters 

Mariners vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)

George Kirby owns a rock-solid 1.10 WHIP, 57.6% ground-ball rate, and Lambert’s the only probable pitcher who has allowed hard contact less frequently this season.

Kirby’s ability to limit barrels and keep the ball down makes him incredibly difficult to produce offense against.

He has conceded three runs or fewer in seven of eight starts this season, and has given up two or less in five straight.

Lambert is sitting down a career-high 9.27 batters per nine innings by way of strikeout. That should serve him well against a Mariners squad that owns the second-highest K rate against righties.

Mariners vs Astros odds

• Moneyline: Mariners -140 | Astros +120
• Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+115) | Astros +1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Mariners vs Astros trend

The Seattle Mariners have hit the game total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.

How to watch Mariners vs Astros and game info

Mariners vs Astros latest injuries

Mariners vs Astros weather

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

I’d prefer to not talk about the entire weekend as it pertains to baseball. The Yankees got utterly spanked in Milwaukee, suffering their second sweep of the season. For that reason alone there was very little to cheer about the past few days.

But to make it worse, the godforsaken Tampa Bay Rays continued their infuriating start. Oh. Look at me. I have a +20 run differential through 39 games and am somehow playing .667 ball. Their a couple blowout losses from a neutral run differential.

Nothing like being in second place in the AL East because of the Rays’ loathsome devil magic. I cannot accurately describe how much Tampa infuriates me.

Tampa Bay Rays (26-13) 4, Boston Red Sox (17-23) 1: Boston is useless. The one time we need them to do something, they shrivel up and die. Tampa split the first two games of this weekend set and wasted no time in the rubber match. Junior Caminero hit a solo shot in the first. In the third, a pair of singles plated two more runs and, lo and behold, that’s all the Rays needed on the day.

On the mound, Nick Martinez continued his mesmerizing season. 5.2 innings of one-run ball lowered his season ERA to 1.70, just a speck lower than his career 4.04 mark. After he departed, three Rays relievers combined to hurl 3.1 scoreless frames. Of course. Ladies and gentlemen, the first place Tampa Bay Rays.

Toronto Blue Jays (18-22) 1, Los Angeles Angels (16-25) 6: Jays fans rejoice. Y’all managed to score a run off Angels ace Jose Soriano. And in the first inning, no less. Kazuma Okamoto doubled in Daulton Varsho and the Jays had the Angels on the ropes early. But then, Soriano did Soriano things. One of the early season favorites for the AL Cy Young Award, Soriano allowed not a run the rest of the way, departing after 7.2 frames.

At the dish, former Yankee Oswald Peraza provided all the offense the Angels ended up needing. His two-run home run in the top of the fifth made it 2-1 Angels. They added two more that inning, with lone runs in the sixth and ninth cementing their win over last season’s Junior Circuit champs.

As an aside, if I tried, I don’t think I could describe how much Peraza learning to hit major league pitching makes me want to gnaw on the floorboards. After Sunday, Peraza is hitting .282 with an .815 OPS. Last year, in his most extended stint as a Yankee, he hit .152 with a .452 OPS in 71 games. You can’t predict baseball, Suzyn.

Other Games

Cleveland Guardians (21-21) 4, Minnesota Twins (18-23) 5: This one was tight into the middle innings, at which time the Guards and starter Gavin Williams fell apart. Double, single, double, single off Williams in the fifth made it 3-1 Minnesota. Not finished, after Williams managed to get two outs, the Twins added two more run-scoring singles to extend the lead to 5-1. Give Cleveland credit. They clawed their way back into it, with runs in the fifth and sixth cutting the lead in half. Then in the eighth, they scratched another run across and even put the winning run in scoring position. Alas, Rhys Hoskins grounded out to end the threat. That was their last best chance.

Detroit Tigers (19-22) 6, Kansas City Royals (19-22) 3: The American League Central, mediocrity is thy name. Detroit and the Royals faced off on Sunday Night Baseball and, after fighting one another to a draw early, the Tigers’ offense broke through in the late innings for the win. The big blow came off the bat of Gage Workman. Coming in to tonight with zero career home runs in limited action, the Tigers’ #99 channeled his inner Aaron Judge when called on to pinch-hit in the sixth. His tw0-run dinger broke a 3-3 tie and sent the Tigers to victory.

Seattle Mariners (19-22) 1, Chicago White Sox (19-21) 2: The Mariners offense managed to score early, scraping a lone run across in the first. Then, it went into hibernation, making nary a dent in the run column the rest of the way. Predictably, one run was not enough to win, though it looked like it might for most of the game. But in the bottom of the eighth, recent Yankee friend Randal Grichuk tied the game with a solo home run before a Miguel Vargas sacrifice fly later in the inning scored the eventual game-winning run. Tough times in Seattle, with Cal Raleigh hitting .161 with a .573 OPS after Sunday’s game.

Texas Rangers (19-21) 3, Chicago Cubs (27-14) 0: Listen, beating the Chicago Cubs these days is a big deal. No duff. It helps that Texas sent Jacob deGrom out for Sunday’s game. The multi-time Cy Young Award winner was in vintage form, stymieing the Cubs for seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts, allowing a paltry three hits and no walks. A fourth inning fielder’s choice put Texas on the board. An Evan Carter two-run home run in the eighth provided the insurance and closed out the scoring.

The modern MLB Draft format only really started in 1987, as there used to be multiple drafts in each year, with January and June drafts plus secondary drafts for each. That means we are entering the 40th draft under the current format, though the number of days and rounds has changed at times in those 40 years.

I thought with this being the 40th draft, now would be a good time to take a look back at some of the best and worst picks that the Atlanta Braves have made during that time. The majority of the best picks will be all over the place, while the majority of the worst picks will come from the top two rounds.

The only qualification for making this list is the player had to have signed as a part of that draft. For that reason, you won’t find Anthony Rendon on the best picks list. For the same reason you won’t find Carter Stewart on the worst picks list.

Best Picks

1. Chipper Jones, SS, 1990 – It’s not easy for a #1 overall pick to make this list, let alone top it – but Chipper Jones wasn’t ordinary by the standards of the top overall selection. The Hall of Famer, and one of the faces of the Braves dynasty run was an MVP, Batting Champion, and World Series winner who hit .303/.401/.529 with 468 homers as a career-long Brave.

2. Freddie Freeman, 1B, 2007 – It’s easy to forget that Freddie Freeman wasn’t the Braves top pick in the 2007 class, or even the most hyped prospect out of that group thanks to Jason Heyward. However the Braves second rounder has carved out a future Hall of Fame career, hitting .299/.385/.509 with 370 homers, an MVP, Gold Glove, and 3 World Series rings – including one World Series MVP. Though he if now in his fifth season with the Dodgers, Freeman’s contributions to the Braves and helping lead them from rebuilding organization to 2021 World Series champs won’t be forgotten anytime soon.

3. Brian McCann, C, 2002 – The second round pick in 2022, Brian McCann took over the Braves catching job in 2005 and held it through the 2013 season, before leaving to sign with the Yankees. He returned home to play his final season as a Brave in 2019, posting a career .262/.337/.452 slash with 282 homers. The seven-time All Star even won a World Series ring with the 2017 Astros. McCann reached the Hall of Fame ballot in the 2025 voting, but was removed after receiving just 1.8% of the vote.

4. Adam Wainwright, RHP, 2000 – The 29th pick in the 2000 draft never saw Atlanta, thanks to being traded to the Cardinals for JD Drew after the 2003 season. Still he deserves to be ranked high on this list as a player who will be getting considered for a possible spot in the Hall of Fame. Waino spent his entire career in St. Louis, going 200-128 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.24 WHIP with 2202 strikeouts over 2668.1 innings. He might have had even better counting stats, but missed all of 2011 and parts of 2015 and 2018 with injuries, along with the shortened 2020 season. He retired after the 2023 season at the age of 41.

5. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, 2008 – Craig Kimbrel was actually drafted out of his Alabama JUCO twice by the Braves, though he didn’t sign as a 33rd round pick in 2007. He did sign as a third rounder in 2008, and went on to become arguably the greatest closer in franchise history. A current Met, he has a career 2.63 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 440 saves, and 1293 strikeouts over 830 innings pitched. Out of his 440 saves, 186 came in a Braves uniform, and he pitched to a 1.43 ERA and 0.91 WHIP with the team. He was traded to the Padres just before Opening Day in 2015, right at the start of the Braves rebuild – a move that netted the Braves another member of this list with the Competitive Balance Round A pick that was part of his return. He will likely be considered for the Hall of Fame once that time comes for him.

6. Kevin Millwood, RHP, 1993 – An 11th round pick in 1993, Kevin Millwood reached the bigs in 1997, and had his breakout in 1999 when he finished third in Cy Young voting. He was a bit more up and down over the next three seasons with the Braves, before they flipped him to the Phillies after the 2022 season for catcher Johnny Estrada. Overall he went 169-152 with a 4.11 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and 2083 strikeouts in 2720.1 innings, earning 29.8 bWAR. Millwood was an All Star just once, in 1999, but twice received Cy Young votes, and led the AL in ERA with Cleveland in 2005.

7. Jason Schmidt, RHP, 1991 – An eighth round pick in 1991, Jason Schmidt became a top prospect for the Braves. He hadn’t quite broken out yet in 22 big league games, when the Braves flipped him to the Pirates in 1996 for Denny Neagle. Schmidt ended up going on to win 130 games with a 3.96 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 1758 strikeouts over 1996.1 innings. He was a three-time All Star, and led the NL in ERA in 2003 when he finished second in the Cy Young voting with the Giants. Overall he posted 29.5 bWAR, which turned out to be a steal in the eighth round.

8. Andrelton Simmons, SS, 2010 – Andrelton Simmons was taken in the second round in 2010, and by 2012 had become the Braves starting shortstop. Although he was a career .263/.312/.366 hitter with 70 homers, he was a highlight machine that became the best defensive shortstop – and possibly even player, in baseball. That led to Simmons posting 36.5 bWAR. Like Kimbrel he was traded in 2015, after the season, to the Angels as the Braves got further into their rebuild.

9. Jermaine Dye, OF, 1993 – A 17th round pick in 1993, Jermaine Dye quickly became a top prospect for the Braves. They brought him up in 1996 and saw him slash .281/.304/.459 with 12 homers in 98 games. Unfortunately the Braves were in win-now mode at that time, and after the year sent him to the Royals in the deal that brought in Michael Tucker and Keith Lockhart. Dye went on to slash .274/.338/.488 with 325 homers in 14 big league seasons with four teams. He was a two-time All Star that finished fifth in AL MVP voting in 2006, when he hit 44 homers with 120 RBI for the White Sox. Dye, who put up 20.3 bWAR, also won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, and was the World Series MVP in the White Sox 2005 title run.

10. Austin Riley, 3B, 2015 – The player acquired with the Competitive Balance pick received in the Craig Kimbrel trade is Austin Riley. The 41st pick in the 2015 draft, a former two-way high school star, Riley has been a two-time All Star and Silver Slugger, as well as winning the 2021 World Series. For his career Riley is hitting .267/.332/.486 with 174 homers – and won’t turn 30 until the start of next season. He has already produced 22.5 bWAR for the Braves.

11. Ryan Klesko, LHP, 1989 – A fifth round pick in 1989, future Braves slugger Ryan Klesko is actually listed as being drafted as a left-handed pitcher. That is because he was seen as a guy with real potential on the mound, though his impressive power ended up continuing his development as a bat. Klesko slashed .279/.370/.500 with 278 homers over parts of 16 big league seasons. The one-time All Star, who won a ring as a member of the 1995 Braves, put up 26.9 bWAR – a number that would surely be higher if not for his well below average defense bringing that total down. Klesko hit 20+ homers in four of the five seasons he played 100+ games with the Braves, before being traded to the Padres after the 1999 season in the deal that brought Reggie Sanders, Wally Joyner, and Quilvio Veras to Atlanta.

12. Michael Harris II, CF, 2019 – The third round pick in 2019 rose quickly through the minors out of high school to win the Rookie of the Year in 2022 – despite losing his 2020 season to the Covid shutdown. After posting OPS marks of .853 and .808 in his first two years, injury and issues with his swing resulted in marks of .722 and .678 in his next two years. Harris did come back on in the second half of last year, and presently has a .841 OPS this year, while also being one of the top defensive centerfielders in the league. For his career he is a .275/.309/.454 hitter with 80 homers, and is still in just his age-25 season with 15.2 bWAR produced.

13. Spencer Strider, RHP, 2020 – A fourth rounder in that weird 2020 draft, Spencer Strider has quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game. After finishing second in the Rookie of the Year to a teammate, and fellow member of this list in 2022, Strider finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2023. Unfortunately Tommy John hit him after just two starts in 2024, and he spent 2025 trying to get himself back into form. An injury has kept him to just one start, which had to be at Coors Field, so far this year as we wait to see what version of Strider is really in there right now. Overall he is 39-24 with a 3.77 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 632 strikeouts in 458.1 innings.

Honorable Mention:

Marcus Giles, 2B, 1996 (53rd round), Kris Medlen, RHP, 2006 (10th round), Mike Stanton, LHP, 1987 (13th round), Tommy Hanson, RHP, 2005 (22nd round), Adam LaRoche, 1B, 2000 (29th round), Jonny Venters, LHP, 2003 (30th round), Spencer Schwellenbach, RHP, 2021 (2nd round), Drake Baldwin, C, 2022 (3rd round)

AJ Smith-Shawver, JR Ritchie, and Hurston Waldrep have not done enough to qualify for the list, but this group could move their way up in the coming years – just like other recent draftees Schwellenbach and Baldwin can.

Worst Picks

1. Mike Kelly, OF, 1991 – The year the Braves turned around to start their great 90s-00s run, they were given the second overall pick. They went for a college star from a top program, with a pick they were hoping could front the lineup with Chipper Jones. However things didn’t quite work out for Kelly, as he produced just 0.3 fWAR over 327 big league games. That 1991 draft produced guys like Manny Ramirez, Shawn Green, Cliff Floyd, Aaron Sele, and Doug Glanville among others. One of those guys would have helped that special run much more than Kelly did. It is worth noting that the Braves picked second because the AL and NL alternated years with the top pick for the worst team, and if they picked first they likely would have taken generational pitching prospect Brien Taylor – whose career never really got going due to an injury in a bar fight.

2. Tyler Houston, C, 1989 – Houston was the second overall pick in 1989, and he produced 1.4 fWAR over 700 big league games. Similar to Lilliquist, that’s just not enough impact this high, and he was selected second when Frank Thomas and Charles Johnson were among the Top 10 picks. That doesn’t even include Mo Vaughn and Chuck Knoblauch in the first round.

3. Derek Lilliquist, LHP, 1987 – The sixth pick in the famous Ken Griffey Jr. class had a 262 game big league career over the course of eight seasons, including 41 starts for the Braves and producing 4.7 fWAR. The reason he made the list is because a couple of picks later Kevin Appier was selected. A few of the other players in that first round include Craig Biggio, Delino DeShields Sr., Mike Remlinger, Travis Fryman, and Pete Harnisch. When you’re picking that high, you’re hoping for a little more impact than a guy who ended up being a journeyman reliever.

4. Sean Gilmartin, LHP, 2011 – This was a questionable pick right from the start, as the Braves used the 28th pick on a soft tossing lefty that was a college ace. Gilmartin did appear in 81 big league games over six seasons with three different teams, pitching to a 4.34 ERA in 112 career innings. There were plenty of other options in that first round including Blake Snell, Trevor Story, Joe Musgrove, Michael Fulmer, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Chafin, and Joe Panik.

5. Jason Hursh, RHP, 2013 – The 31st pick in 2013 was seen as a questionable pick at the time, as most thought he would end up being a reliever. That ended up being exactly what happened, as he ended up moving to the bullpen within two years of being drafted. Hursh appeared in 11 big league games with the Braves, during the 2016 and 2017 seasons – while the team was rebuilding, and pitched to a 8.25 ERA in 12 innings. The very next pick ended up being Aaron Judge, while Sean Manaea, Michael Lorenzen, and Corey Knebel were among the other first rounders taken after Hursh.

6. Jamie Arnold, RHP, 1992 – The 21st pick of the 1992 MLB Draft, Arnold actually appeared in 50 big league games with the Dodgers and Cubs after becoming a free agent after the 1998 season – though he racked up a 5.73 ERA in those games. The reason he makes this list is because the next two picks in that draft were Rick Helling and Jason Kendall, a pair of players that put up 61.9 bWAR over their careers. Charles Johnson again went within the next 10 picks, this time signing with the Marlins.

7. Matt Lipka, SS/OF, 2010 – The 35th pick in 2010 was a former two sport star in high school that the Braves wanted to continue developing as a contact and speed oriented prospect. It never worked out, as he topped out at Triple-A and never truly settled into one defensive position. Some of the other options here included Noah Syndergaard, Nick Castellanos, and Taijuan Walker.

8. Ryan Cusick, RHP, 2021 – A year after taking Jared Shuster in the first out of Wake Forest with mixed reactions, the Braves doubled down on Wake arms. Cusick was met with an even tougher reaction when announced, and so far he hasn’t really done much to prove the team right. As of now he is in Triple-A with the Phillies organization, but he owns a career 5.55 ERA in his minor league career. The Braves were widely expected to take Gavin Williams with this pick, but he came off the board one pick earlier by Cleveland, and they pivoted to Cusick over Jackson Merrill and Carson Williams among others. This would rank higher on the list if not for the fact the Braves traded him to then-Oakland as part of the deal that brought Matt Olson in to replace Freddie Freeman.

9. Braden Shewmake, INF, 2019 – The Braves surprised people when they took Texas A&M infielder Braden Shewmake with the 21st pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. That pick was one I was known to be very critical of at the time, and to date he has played in 39 career big league games since the start of 2023 – though he is on the Astros active roster at the moment. Shewmake has a career .447 OPS, though he is five for 16 with a pair of homers this year. Anthony Volpe and Michael Busch were the best players in the remainder of that first round, though Gunnar Henderson was the first pick of that second round.

10. Cole Phillips, RHP, 2022 – The Braves used a second round pick on an injured prep pitcher in 2022 named Cole Phillips. He was seen as a potential first rounder that spring, before his injury happened. He wasn’t expected to pitch until at least mid-to-late 2023, but has never pitched in a professional game almost four years later. Some of the other second rounders that year included Jacob Misiorowski, Roman Anthony, and Chandler Simpson.

11. Joey Devine, RHP, 2005 – The Braves used the 27th pick in 2005 on a college closer that they thought they could quickly get to the big leagues to help fix a bullpen that was a problem at the time. Devine was actually rushed to the big leagues, making his debut in August, but never did much in a Braves uniform. He did have one great season in Oakland, pitching to a 0.59 ERA in 42 appearances, but only pitched in 93 games as injuries took their toll on him. The Braves could have taken Colby Rasmus, who went with the very next pick, or fellow first rounders Clay Buchholz or Jed Lowrie instead.

12. Beau Philip, INF, 2019 – Philip is the rare second round pick to make this list, but that is because he was seen as a head scratching pick at the time. Most expected Philip to go somewhere between the fifth and seventh rounds, but the Braves took the Oregon State product with the 60th pick. He played 352 games in the Braves system, posting a career OPS of just .615. Some of the names drafted after him in that second round include Kyle Stowers, Josh Smith, and Jared Triolo. The only reason Philip isn’t even higher on this list is the fact that he took an underslot bonus of $700k to sign, which saved the Braves about $450k – money that was used to sign Michael Harris.

13. Jared Shuster, LHP, 2020 – The 25th pick in the weird 2020 MLB Draft, Shuster was a pick who was met with mixed reactions from the jump when the Braves took him out of Wake Forest. He has pitched in 66 big league games, including four with the Cardinals this year, though has a 5.12 ERA in 149.1 career innings – including 11 starts with the Braves in 2023, before going to the White Sox in the Aaron Bummer deal. After Shuster, Tyler Soderstrom was the next pick, and Jordan Westburg, Austin Wells, and Carmen Mlodzinski also came off the board in the next six picks.

The results of these Cubs games are getting more stratified. Four of the last five losses have felt pretty lopsided. Even in that other game, the Cubs allowed nine runs. You do expect to lose nearly 100 percent of the games in which you allow nine runs. Also, the Cubs have only lost five of their last 25 games. The Cubs either feel a little overmatched, or they find a way to win the game. When those proportions are 4 to 1, you have to feel pretty good about your chances to make a very deep run in the season.

As a blogger, the way these losses are going doesn’t make a lot to talk about. This feels like a just throw it away and move on, just like Saturday’s game. The larger concern out of this, to the extent that there is one, is the offense getting stifled for two straight games. I’m not ready to worry about it. Certainly, before Sunday’s game we talked about it. When healthy, Jacob deGrom has been a borderline Hall of Fame pitcher. The only question that will ever exist with him is if the body of work is large enough to justify his inclusion.

Even with the two shutouts over the weekend, the Cubs still own the top team on base percentage in baseball. Their slugging still sits fifth. The net result has their team OPS at fourth overall. By pretty much any objective measure, they have a top five offense. The offense failed them this weekend. But I do not think this was some kind of gateway drug to a punchless offense and a lot of losses. There are more tough games ahead, but I expect the team to bounce back quickly.

Your mileage may vary, and all of our expectations are probably drifting upwards, but none of us suddenly thought this team was heading for 110ish wins.

Three Positives:

• Nico Hoerner had a single, a double and a stolen base. He should have been on Team USA. He’s a great bench player for a team like that.
• Phil Maton faced four batters, retiring them all and striking out two.
• Michael Busch had a single in three plate appearances.

Game 41, May 10: Rangers 3, Cubs 0 (27-14)

Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.

THREE HEROES:

• Superhero: Jameson Taillon (.111). 5.1 IP, 22 BF, 4 H, 2 BB, ER, 4 K (L 2-2)
• Hero: Phil Maton (.082). 1.1 IP, 4 BF, 2 K
• Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.071). 2-4, 2B

THREE GOATS:

• Billy Goat: Moisés Ballesteros (-.130). 0-4
• Goat: Daniel Palencia (-.110). 0.2 IP, 4 BF, 2 H, 2 ER, K
• Kid: Seiya Suzuki (-.110). 0-4

WPA Play of the Game: Evan Carter hit a two-out, two-run homer in the eighth inning to increase the Ranger lead to three. (.114)

*Cubs Play of the Game: Jameson Taillon faced Josh Jung with no outs and runners on first and second in the first inning, the game scoreless. He coaxed a double play ball, contributing to a scoreless first. (.085)

Cubs Player of the Game:

Game 40 Winner: Ethan Roberts received 40 of 91 votes.

Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 3/Bottom 3)

The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.

• Michael Conforto +13
• Michael Busch +11
• Shōta Imanaga +10
• Dansby Swanson/Jacob Webb/Caleb Thielbar/ -6
• Matt Shaw -9
• Seiya Suzuki -15

Current Win Pace: 106.68 wins

Up Next: A rare off day Monday, following 10 games in a row and 23 games in 24 days. Tuesday night, they face the Braves (28-13) in Atlanta. Colin Rea (4-1, 4.03, 38 IP) makes his sixth start (ninth appearance) of the year. Last time out, he allowed one run on six hits and three walks over 5.1 innings. He’s been better at home (2.66 v 5.60) but also better at night (2.77 v 675) than during the day time.

30-year-old Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.34, 37.1 IP) makes his eighth start of the year. The first round (22nd overall) pick of the Dodgers (2014) allowed five runs in five innings in a start against the Rockies. Better away (3.63 v 5.40) than home. Also better during the day than at night (3.86 v 4.56).

The Braves are tough.

Find a way and get back in the win column.

Go Cubs

Recaps

[Arizona Sports] Eduardo Rodriguez nearly earns complete game in win vs. Mets – Torey Lovullo and starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez made a deal after the eighth inning of Rodriguez’s gem during a 5-1 win over the New York Mets on Sunday. Rodriguez had thrown 91 pitches and held the Mets to one run, so he asked to go back out for 10 more pitches to try and earn his first career complete game. Lovullo obliged. A strikeout and a bloop single later, Lovullo predictably heard the ire of booing fans at Chase Field as he collected the baseball from Rodriguez at 100 pitches, and Rodriguez received a standing ovation for a series-clinching performance.

[Dbacks.com] Not satisfied with an 8-inning gem, E-Rod talks his way into starting the 9th – The 33-year-old spun 8 1/3 dominant frames, not allowing a hit until the sixth inning. He scattered four knocks – none of which registered as hard-hit (95-plus mph) per Statcast – and walked three, but allowed just one run. His outing marks the sixth consecutive game in which a D-backs starter has gone at least six innings, the longest current streak in the Majors. “You see a guy on the mound that doesn’t give you a lot of emotion,” bench coach Jeff Banister said of Rodriguez pregame. “But under the hood, this guy is competing as much as anybody that we’ve got on the field.”

[New York Post] Mets’ no-show offense, brutal defense sink them in loss – The Mets disrespected all mothers on their day by not playing nice. A no-show lineup has become the norm, but Sunday they added shoddy defense — or run prevention, if you prefer — into the equation and departed the desert with sand in their pants in a 5-1 loss to the Diamondbacks. It was a second straight game the Mets (15-25) scored only one run after scoring only once in nine innings Friday before adding two in the 10th to win. The Mets lost the series, completing a 5-4 road trip that also included stops in Anaheim and Colorado. Juan Soto, the team’s best hitter, went 4-for-33 (.121) on the road trip with one homer.

Team news

[Dbacks.com] McCann’s wife Jessica the glue that holds it all together – There’s not a day that goes by that the Diamondbacks catcher doesn’t marvel at what she’s done to hold their family together. “For lack of a better term, mothers married to professional baseball players are essentially single parents for nine months out of the year,” McCann said. “It’s been especially tough for her recently since the boys have started school. It used to be that they were at least with me full-time. Now they’re back home. And when they’re home, I mean, she’s truly the definition of a single parent. She’s home alone and taking the kids to school, sports, birthday parties, you know, everything by herself.”

[SI] What D-backs’ Huge Series Win vs Mets Told Us — And What it Didn’t – Lovullo has tried to avoid taking credit for the turnaround of the rotation, but it’s a fact that the starting pitcher group has performed at a high level since their “one-way” meeting with their manager. That continued in a massive way against the Mets. [But] How much success was owed to Mets’ struggles? It’s a good sign that the D-backs’ pitching was able to capitalize on poor offense. It’s also worth noting they held Juan Soto and Bo Bichette to a combined 0-for-20 in the series. But the Mets’ offensive track record does put a bit of an asterisk on the overall pitching results.

[AZ Central] Lovullo dealing with illness, but not missing work – For a while Sunday morning, it was unclear whether Lovullo was going to be able to manage the game. Battling an illness, he did not do his usual pregame session with reporters and did not decide he was managing until less than an hour before the game. “Rough morning — real early this morning all the way up until about 7:30, 8 o’clock,” Lovullo said, adding that he decided to manage after a team doctor assured him he wouldn’t get anyone sick. The club announced about 20 minutes before first pitch that Lovullo would manage. Bench coach Jeff Banister said he found out around 6:30 a.m. that Lovullo was not feeling well. Banister was ready to step in for Lovullo.

And, elsewhere…

[MLB] Here are MLB’s top Mother’s Day moments – Each Mother’s Day, players swing pink bats and don pink gear to pay tribute to mom. They also sometimes honor mom with a memorable moment, like when Brandon Nimmo talked about his mom during an interview and cranked a walk-off bomb several innings later. Here’s a look at that special home run and a few other recent Mother’s Day memories.

[New York Post] Yasiel Puig homers twice in debut for Canadian baseball team weeks before facing possible prison sentence – Puig signed with the Maple Leafs of the Canadian Baseball League late last month and Sunday was his first game with the semi-pro team.  All of this occurred 20 days out from a sentencing hearing slated for May 26 in the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California in Los Angeles.  He was found guilty of obstruction of justice and providing false statements to federal investigators who had been looking into an illegal sports gambling operation. He is potentially facing 15 years in jail, though he could receive a more lenient sentence for the situation.

[AP] Turang’s homer off Bednar in 9th helps Brewers complete sweep with 4-3 win over Yankees – Brice Turang homered off David Bednar with two outs in the ninth inning, and the Milwaukee Brewers completed a three-game sweep of the New York Yankees with a 4-3 victory Sunday. Milwaukee had not swept the Yankees in a series of at least three games since August 1989. The Brewers improved their interleague record since 2022 to a major league-best 116-65. They are 14-7 against American League teams and 8-9 against National League squads this season. [Fun fact: Brewers reliever Aaron Ashby currently leads all MLB pitchers in wins, with seven]

Dodgers affiliates fought multiple opponents on Sunday — opposing offenses, and rain.

Player of the day

Great Lakes right fielder Jose Meza was in the middle of all three scoring innings for the Loons in Sunday’s win. He walked with the bases loaded in the third inning, hit a two-run double in the fourth, then doubled home another in the seventh.

Mesa tied his season high with four RBI (also done on April 21), and added a single in the eighth to match his season high of three hits (also April 5 and April 28).

Triple-A Oklahoma City

The series finale between the Comets and Salt Lake Bees (Angels) was canceled due to inclement weather.

The teams do not meet again in the first half of the season, so Sunday’s game will not be made up later this year.

Double-A Tulsa

A five-run seventh against Roque Gutierrez and Christian Suarez spelled doom for the Drillers in a rainy road loss to the Arkansas Travelers (Mariners).

Down three in the ninth, Tulsa got two-out walks by Kendall George and Josue De Paula, then a single by Kyle Nevin for one run before the game was delayed with the tying runs on base. Zyhir Hope was due to bat to see if the comeback could be completed, but the weather never cooperated and the game was called with two outs in the ninth.

You might remember Elijah Hainline from making some highlight defensive playsin the middle infield as one of the high-number crew who suited up for several games during spring training. Tulsa’s shortstop on Sunday made waves at the plate, with two singles, a double, a stolen base, scored two runs, and drove in another. He had three multi-hit games during this series in Arkansas.

High-A Great Lakes

Meza delivered all four RBI by the Loons in their win over the Lake County Captains (Guardians), but Great Lakes scored seven runs in total. One of those other three runs came home on a balk, and the other two scored on a fielding error at third base.

Great Lakes thus far has eased Brooks Auger back from the injured list, missing about a month after a pulled groin in spring training. He’s lasted between two and three innings in his three starts so far, but the results are there, including five strikeouts in 2 2/3 scoreless frames on Sunday, allowing only two singles. In three games, Auger has allowed only one run in 7 2/3 innings, with 14 strikeouts against only two walks and a phenomenal 38.7-percent strikeout-minus-walk rate.

Jose Hernandez, promoted on Saturday, started at first base Sunday and was 0-for-3 with a walk and hit by pitch in his High-A debut.

Class-A Ontario

Jesus Tillero had a rough start, allowing eight runs while recording 10 outs in the Tower Buzzers’ loss to the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.

Third baseman Chase Harlan had two hits, extending his hit streak to nine games. Jaron Elkins had two hits as the designated hitter on Sunday and stole two bases. Elkins, who stole 63 bases last season, has 16 steals in 19 attempts this season in 30 games.

Transactions

Triple-A: Right-hander Wyatt Mills was called up to the Dodgers bullpen, and Paul Gervase was optioned back to Oklahoma City.

Sunday scores

• Oklahoma City vs. Salt Lake, canceled (rain)
• Arkansas 8, Tulsa 6
• Great Lakes 7, Lake County 4
• Rancho Cucamonga 10, Ontario 2

The week ahead

• Oklahoma City at Albuquerque (Rockies)
• Tulsa vs. Springfield (Cardinals)
• Great Lakes vs. West Michigan (Tigers)
• Ontario vs. San Jose (Giants)

Dusty Baker infamously refused to play Yainer Diaz at catcher more than once or twice a week during his first full season in the big leagues in 2023. The reasoning was that he wasn’t ready for the rigors of everyday catching. What many of us pointed out at the time was that Diaz was a vastly superior hitter to the incumbent Martin Maldonado, and the defensive metrics seemed to point to the fact that he was also the superior catcher as well that season.

I was one of those ringing that bell continually that season. I stand by that analysis. This is because we could add in some other numbers that measure the so-called intangibles. Intangibles are things we are not able to measure. Fans, scouts, coaches, and historians often cite intangibles when trying to pick between two seemingly similar players. One of the core beliefs in the lab is that intangibles are things we are not able to measure yet. The yet is the key word there.

Pitch framing used to be a skill that people counted as an intangible. It was called that because we had not figured out how to measure it. We now have a stat for that, so it is no longer an intangible. Similarly, those that call themselves experts (some are and some just call themselves experts) point to handling of the pitching staff and calling a game as an intangible. Can’t we measure it?

It would seem pretty easy to do and most sites actually have a number for it. They call it “catcher ERA.” It is the simple calculation of the pitchers that have thrown to that catcher and what their ERA was while doing it. It seems so simple, but most hardcore statisticians don’t look at it for one important reason; second catchers usually catch one or two pitchers exclusively. If those pitchers are really good or really bad that will skew the results.

These are the numbers most people look at when they start breaking down the Gold Glove awards. Obviously, there are numbers based on how well a catcher blocks pitches and dirt and a number for how well they control the running game. These numbers get combined into fielding run value and defensive runs saved. It is easy to see here that the good folks at the Fielding Bible and Fangraphs like Vazquez’s work more than Diaz. They think both are fairly neutral when looking at how they are handling pitchers.

Are they equal though? Sometimes the oldest and most simple numbers are the best ones. Back in 2023, the Astros had a better record in games that Diaz caught and the pitchers seemed to do just as well. So, all of the anecdotal evidence that pitchers liked to throw to Maldonado more than Diaz wasn’t borne out in the actual numbers that pitchers were putting up.

This is the ultimate problem with the current narrative. The current narrative is that Dusty Baker was right not play Diaz and Chas McCormick more in 2023 because they both suck now. Every season exists in its own universe and it is up to the manager to discover as quickly as possible what that particular season has in store. So, who Diaz was or wasn’t in 2023 is immaterial. The question becomes who is Yainer Diaz right now and how successful is he working with pitchers?

There are only two crude numbers we are going to look at. First, we will look at the average number of runs per game that the team has allowed when these two catchers were starting. Vazquez has now started 17 games on the season while Diaz started 22 before he went down with an injury. So, we will look at the number of runs per game the team has allowed in those starts and the team’s won-loss record when those catchers caught. I will do the same thing with both Diaz and Martin Maldonado in 2023 to demonstrate what I’m talking about.

2026

These numbers aren’t perfect. Diaz caught both of Hunter Brown’s starts and Vazquez caught all of the Imai starts. One could easily remove those to give this a more even look and we would see an even starker difference between the two. However, the point is pretty clear. Pitchers pitch better to Vazquez than they do to Diaz and the team is generally more successful. Obviously, Vazquez also currently has better offensive numbers, but even without the offensive numbers, the advantage would be there. Let me break down 2023 really quickly to demonstrate the difference.

2023

As we move closer to Memorial Day we come to realize that every season exists in its own universe. So, the notion that Dusty Baker was right because Yainer Diaz currently is no good makes very little sense. Diaz was better offensively in 2023. He was better defensively in 2023. The Astros allowed fewer runs per game when he caught and they won a higher percentage of games when he caught. The decision to play Maldonado was based on past considerations that were no longer true.

Similarly, it will likely be true that Diaz will end up being better offensively than Vazquez. For one, he was just starting to hit before he went down. For another, Vazquez’s Statcast numbers clearly indicate That he is due to regress any minute now. Still, the Astros pitchers are clearly doing better pitching to Vazquez and the Astros as a team are performing better when Vazquez catches. It might end up being closer to one fewer run a game. There is no way that Diaz could produce that much additional damage offensively. So, Vazquez is demonstrating that he should be the guy.

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.

It's only a six-game slate tonight, but I've still found immense value in my MLB player props, including from the likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Corbin Carroll, and Drew Rasmussen. 

Read more in my MLB picks for Monday, May 11. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Nathan Eovaldi	Over 5.5 strikeouts	+113
Corbin Carroll	Over 1.5 total bases	+119
Drew Rasmussen	Over 4.5 strikeouts	-107

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 strikeouts (+113)

Nathan Eovaldi has always had electrifying stuff. While the strikeout numbers this season aren't jumping off the page, he's still getting his fair share of swings and misses. Eovaldi has racked up 47 Ks in 47 2/3 innings of work. The right-hander has cashed the Over in punchouts in back-to-back outings, collecting 15 Ks during that span. 

In his most recent start, Eovaldi struck out eight Yankees. The Texas Rangers face the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight, and the D-Backs have struck out 8.33 times across their last three contests.

Eovaldi's stuff looks sharper lately, and he's also allowed just one earned run across his previous two appearances. He'll rack up the Ks again tonight. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN+

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (+119)

I may be eyeing Eovaldi to deal, but one Arizona hitter who has had success against him is Corbin Carroll. It hasn't been a banner year so far for the outfielder, hitting just .258. However, he's had Eovaldi's number, going 5-for-13 lifetime with a double, triple, and home run. Carroll has also cashed the Over in total bases in two of his last four contests. 

The 25-year-old had a double in the series opener against the New York Mets on Friday, and he also went deep on Thursday against the Pirates.

Although he isn't exactly tearing the cover off the baseball in May, facing a guy whom he's hit well against before screams value here, especially given Carroll's extra-base potential vs Eovaldi, who has already allowed 10 homers in eight starts. 

• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ESPN+

Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 strikeouts (-107)

Drew Rasmussen and the Tampa Bay Rays will face the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, and his last start came against them. Rasmussen ultimately tossed six innings, striking out five. He's cashed the Over in Ks in three straight, clearing tonight's total quite easily in the two starts prior as well.

The righty has struck out 19 hitters in 18 2/3 innings of work on the road, and he's hit the Over in five of his seven outings overall this season.

While the Jays do a phenomenal job of putting the ball in play, Rasmussen has very good stuff, and his total is relatively low. Clearing five Ks for the fourth straight start shouldn't be difficult after he found a rhythm against this same lineup last week. 

• Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: SN1, Rays.TV

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

This time a week ago, the Orioles season was in danger of spiraling out of control as they were in the middle of getting laughed out of the stadium in every game of a four-game set against the Yankees. Since then, they’ve stopped the tailspin for now, winning two against the Marlins and one against the Nationals. Now, the Yankees are up again and we’ll see if the Orioles can be more competitive this time.

In this week’s episode of the podcast, I’ve given up on my comparison from a couple of weeks ago about the possibility of these Orioles following the 2014 team’s path to success. They’re not really holding on around .500. Instead, we have to look to the O’s southern neighbors, the Nationals, who were a hot mess in the end of May but eventually turned things around and went on to win the World Series. It’s a thin strand to hang on to.

Also in this episode, a listener sent in a question asking who makes the final decisions on the Orioles lineup each night. My answer is maybe my hottest take yet on this podcast, because nobody who reads this website seems to believe it: Manager Craig Albernaz. Bear with me and give it a listen as I explain why:

If the above player isn’t displaying, view this article in Incognito Mode or check it out on the show’s page.

This is my weekly podcast about whatever is going on lately with the Orioles. If you enjoyed this episode, please make sure to subscribe. You can get the show on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you prefer to access your podcasts.

How are you feeling about the way things are going with the Orioles right now? Answers could make it into the mailbag section of the next episode of the podcast.

The San Diego Padres were one pitch away from dropping their series to the St. Louis Cardinals, but Nick Castellanos changed the outcome of the game and the series with one swing of the bat. Castellanos was called on to pinch-hit in the bottom of the ninth inning. After breaking his bat and having to borrow a replacement from Fernando Tatis Jr., Castellanos hit a game-tying two-run home run on a 3-2 pitch deep into the left field bleachers. Petco Park erupted and wanted to see Ramon Laureano end the game with one swing of the bat. Instead, he struck out to end the inning.

San Diego was able to get through the top of the 10th inning without allowing the Manfred-man to score from second base. That set the stage for the Padres to get an extra-innings win in dramatic fashion. Laureano started at second base due to him being the final out in the bottom of the ninth inning. Jackson Merrill was intentionally walked and Tatis Jr. worked a six-pitch walk off Cardinals reliver Gordon Graceffo to load the baes. Manny Machado stepped to the plate and lifted the first pitch into right-center field which allowed Laureano to tag up and score from third base to give the Padres a 3-2 extra-innings win.

Walker Buehler started the game for San Diego and pitched well. He made one mistake to the most dangerous hitter in the St. Louis lineup in Jordan Walker, and he deposited the pitch into the left field stands for a two-run home run. Buehler finished the game with two runs allowed on three hits through six innings with two strikeouts. The San Diego bullpen did not allow a hit over the final four innings with Ron Marinaccio throwing two hitless innings, followed by an inning from Bradgley Rodriguez, 2/3 of an inning from Jeremiah Estrada and 1/3 of an inning from Adrian Morejon.

The Padres are off Monday and will open a three-game series on the road in Milwaukee against the Brewers on Tuesday.

Padres News:

• With the injury to Luis Campusano the Padres needed to add another catcher to their roster and they did so by selecting Triple-A catcher Rodolfo Duran. There were some among the Friar Faithful who thought maybe top-prospect Ethan Salas would get the nod. Thomas Conroy of Gaslamp Ball believes San Diego made the right decision allowing Salas to continue to develop in the minors.

• Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune believes the depth of the roster and the bullpen makes the Padres a “playoff-caliber club.“

• It would be difficult to see yourself in one specific role for most of your MLB experience and then be asked to change. Matt Waldron has his mind set on helping the team in any capacity.

Baseball News:

• The Milwaukee Brewers swept the New Yor Yankees for the first time in a century of baseball. Yankees top prospect Spencer Jones recorded his first MLB hit in the game with family in attendance.

• Eli White made the catch on a ball to the wall and helped lead the Atlanta Braves beat the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• The Texas Rangers shut out the Chicago Cubs on the strength of a vintage start from Jacob DeGrom.