CLEVELAND, OH - AUGUST 19: Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Parker Messick (77) delivers a pitch to the plate during the sixth inning of the Major League Baseball interleague game between the San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Guardians on August 19, 2026, at Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
On paper last night’s loss to the Giants wasn’t the worst loss of the season. Emotionally, morally, and spiritually it certainly felt like one of the worst. The Guardians offense decided to take the day off again, going 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. Messick got the loss after pitching a 6.2 inning gem. Messick gave up one run on six hits and struck out ten batters without a walk. Jake has the well written recap of this unfortunate loss here.
It is hard to have optimism for the remainder of this season, and I applaud any one who is able to see a route to the playoffs in this teams future. Unfortunately I cannot bring myself to give up on the team until they are statistically eliminated, but it is becoming hard to believe in their post season chances. The Guardians currently sit in third place in the AL Central, 5.5 games back from the first place Chicago White Sox. The Minnesota Twins are 4.0 games back in second place and the Detroit Tigers are staying neck and neck with the Guardians. The Wild Card race is not going in Cleveland’s favor with the Guardians sitting 3 spots and 1.5 games back from the Twins for the final Wild Card spot.
David Fry was recalled from Triple-A Columbus. Rhys Hoskins was placed on the 10-Day Injured List due to low back inflammation. Since being sent down, Fry has been hitting .294 with a 1.169 OPS. In 34 ABs he has 6 home runs and 18 RBIs.
Quincy had a nice write up about Angel Genao and his major contributions in his short time in the league.
Around the League
The Chicago Cubs picked up Gabriel Arias off of waivers after he was DFA’d by the Mets earlier this week.
The Tigers gave up two runs in the bottom of the ninth, losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
DENVER, CO - AUGUST 18: Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tanner Scott (66) reacts after a defensive play to end the game in the ninth inning during a game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field on August 18, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Edwin Diaz’s time with the Los Angeles Dodgers has not been what any of the parties had hoped for. Diaz on Tuesday went on the IL for neck inflammation, his second stint on the IL with his new team so far this season.
On Wednesday, Diaz went for neck imaging, and the MRI showed the “best case scenario”, according to manager Dave Roberts. He went on to say that the injury seems to be more muscular than nerve related.
“I think he’d been feeling the tightness in his neck,” Roberts said. “But I think where it went to the other night, he hadn’t felt that sensation. So that’s what really checked him up.”
Roberts surmised that the closer would not be shut down very long for throwing, that it could only be a couple of days.
Maddie Lee of the L.A. Times has more information on the injury here.
Patrick Saunders of MLB.com also covers the Diaz injury, as well as who will be the closer while he is out. That man is Tanner Scott.
“His stuff, right now, today, is as good as it’s been all year,” manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday before the finale of a three-game series against the Rockies at Coors Field. “Right now, it’s easy to say that he’s our best reliever and most consistent reliever. I certainly see him as our closer.”
Scott already has the team-high saves for the season with 17, in 19 opportunities.
“Man, Tanner doesn’t complain,” the skipper said. “He’s always ready, wants to pitch, wants to help his teammates, his team, and certainly, given how last year went, for him to come back and right the ship.”
Hunter Feduccia was out of the Dodgers lineup on Wednesday, after he left Tuesday’s game early feeling ill.
“We’re just trying to hydrate him,” Roberts said after Tuesday’s game. “He’s got this stomach bug or food poisoning, something like that. He was scuffling all game, and he went as long as he could go. Obviously, he’ll be down (Wednesday). But he gave us a great effort.”
With Feduccia out and a lefty on the mound, the Dodgers did a little lineup shuffling. Freddie Freeman was moved down to the four slot, and Max Muncy and Tommy Edman were both given the day off, although both were available off the bench.
Owen Perkins of the OC Register covers some more details on Diaz as well as other updates to the lineup here.
The National League Most Valuable Player award race is going stupid hard right now. It is the definition of a dead heat, with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Shohei Ohtani vying for every inch of territory for an award that most (myself included) had already declared for Ohtani in early June. We have walk-off home runs, questions about how much half a season of pitching matters and ESPN features interviewing MLB players about what they think. It’s an NL MVP industrial complex, and I’m here to add my two cents. Maybe three, and (spoiler alert) I don’t think this race is as close as people are making it out to be.
Buckle up, because this will be a distillation of a number of personal passion points in baseball analytics and discourse. Frankly, I think Ohtani is obviously the MVP, and I reject the arguments being made in PCA’s favor. And I’m going to convince you I’m right with the fire of 1000 suns.
If I wanted to bet my two cents instead of putting them in writing, Crow-Armstrong (-165) and Ohtani (+140) are essentially tied on FanDuel, with only a narrow edge for PCA because of a recent, visible surge (all these stats are current as of Wednesday morning). Ohtani’s odds have tailed off because he hasn’t been pitching lately, but he did rack up 3.0 pitching WAR with a 1.79 ERA before his injury in early July and has thrown down a .949 OPS just for fun; because, ya know, he’s Shohei Ohtani.
The fact that Crow-Armstrong is even in this race is astounding, given that a player who is essentially Yordan Alvarez and Paul Skenes rolled into one should really never not win the MVP award. But Ohtani not even pitching 90 innings this year has apparently flipped things in favor of PCA, whose centerfield defense has captured the imagination of millions and whose chase for 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases has vaulted him narrowly above Ohtani. So has voter fatigue, given Ohtani has won the last three NL MVP awards, and PCA giving him a challenge is bound to give him bonus points.
You could argue that a 40-40 season, of which there have only been six in MLB history, should automatically grant you the MVP award, but you’d be surprised. Ohtani won it with his 50-50 2024, Ronald Acuña Jr. did too in 2023 with his 40-70 campaign and Jose Canseco won it in 1988 with the first ever such season. But the middle three: 1996 Barry Bonds (fifth in MVP voting), 1998 Alex Rodriguez (ninth in MVP voting) and 2006 Alfonso Soriano (sixth in MVP voting) all didn’t even come close. A-Rod and Bonds led their leagues in WAR those seasons too, but it didn’t matter at the time.
This might just be me, but I don’t think a 40-40 season (which PCA does not have yet, mind you) is more impressive than half a season of Cy Young pitching and a 155 wRC+ Silver Slugger-tier masterclass. Stolen bases are a supremely overrated statistic in baseball, and PCA’s 30+ stolen bases have only added about TWO runs for the Cubs all year. Ohtani added 21 runs as a pitcher in 82 ⅔ innings.
Now, you will retort, PCA plays some of the best centerfield defense we’ve ever seen, and you’d throw my run value crap right back at me and say “PCA has racked up 24 fielding runs above average!” You will also say that, because of this fielding prowess and because Ohtani does not play in the field, PCA’s WAR (we’re using fWAR for all of this because I like it better) blows Ohtani out of the water, with PCA’s 8.4 beating Ohtani’s 7.1 and running away fast — Ohtani is not accumulating any pitching WAR while PCA continues to farm fielding stats.
Here’s the thing about fielding stats, though: PCA is obviously a generational centerfielder, all you have to do is watch one single Chicago Cubs game to know that, but these metrics leave a lot to be desired. I need you to trust me through this next part and not fall asleep:
fWAR, which we’re using (and which the recent ESPN article about this debate used, weirdly, since ESPN’s own leaderboards use bWAR) is based on Outs Above Average (OAA, which PCA leads the league by far in). bWAR, the other flavor, has Ohtani closer to PCA because it is based on Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), which PCA is 10th in the majors in, behind two other centerfielders: Ceddanne Rafaela and Andy Pages.
OAA really just measures how a defensive player turns batted-balls into outs. DRS, calculated by the Fielding Bible, supposedly measures a whole lot more than that, but they also do not make it easy to check their work given we have an idea of how their formula works … but it also isn’t actually published anywhere. Still with me? Okay. What that all means is that PCA is maybe the best defensive player in the league. But it’s definitely not a slam dunk, and I think pro-PCA arguments cherry-pick fielding data that fits their agenda.
Ohtani, meanwhile, has no such fielding data to cherry-pick. He is disadvantaged by his position, given that you have to be a better hitter as a DH than you do as a CF to accumulate WAR, and these metrics aren’t built to parse that Ohtani is literally a pitcher as well. That reality is flying completely under the radar in this discussion.
PCA and Ohtani are both having roughly equal hitting seasons. Crow-Armstrong is indeed a much more impactful baserunner and fielder, and Ohtani (again) is a pitcher who just hasn’t pitched in a while. This whole debate boils down to your opinion about which thing is more valuable: half a season of godlike pitching or elite centerfield defense and baserunning? Even ignoring underlying contact-quality stuff that suggests Ohtani is actually a much better hitter and would lead me to believe he will have a better final month-and-a-half, I will take half a season of godlike pitching, please and thank you.
Finally, there’s the conceptual argument, which I will briefly make because I think it hammers the Ohtani case home. Is it humanly possible to disagree more about the definition of a word than sports fans disagree about what “valuable” means, specifically as it pertains to “most valuable player” awards?
Some smart alecks will tell you that “valuable” just means “the player with the most value to their team,” but that is probably best defined by trade value, or the guy who would command the largest return in a trade. That is not how MVP awards have ever been doled out, and a far better title would be “Best Player” or, if you want to be needlessly verbose (I usually do), “player who had the best season.”
Put simply: I don’t think it’s possible to be prime Jacob deGrom for half a season and peak Paul Goldschmidt for a full season AS ONE SINGULAR PERSON and not have “the best season.” I mean that with all due respect to PCA, but 82 ⅔ innings of that pitching just knocks everything else out of the picture for me. Ohtani is, for all the stats, the most unique, the most impressive, the most completely ridiculously impossibly stupidly good. The most, say it with me now, valuable.
PHOENIX, AZ - NOVEMBER 2: Jalen Green #4 and Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns look on during the game against the San Antonio Spurs on November 2, 2025 at PHX Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2025 NBAE (Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
The Suns surprised just about everyone (including me) by winning 45 games in 2025-26 despite losing their second-highest-paid player (Jalen Green) for most of the season. There are hopes, and even expectations, that the Suns will win even more with a year of continuity, fewer injuries, the addition of Miles Bridges, and development by young players Ryan Dunn, Khaman Maluach, Rasheer Fleming, and Koa Peat. Conversely, this optimism should be tempered with 5 reasons why the Suns could easily regress this upcoming season.
Poor roster balance
The Suns enter the season with Devin Booker, Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges, and Mark Williams as the nominal starters. The problem is that two of them are shooting guards, two are small forwards, and none is a point guard or power forward.
I have written about this before, but the Suns were at their best last year when they played Collin Gillespie next to Booker, and the Suns’ best season with Booker was when he was paired with Chris Paul. Conversely, the Suns were a much worse team when Jalen Green came back. They were also a much better team when they played a true power forward (Isaiah Livers or Rasheer Fleming) at that spot, even if neither of those players was exactly setting the world on fire with their box score statistics.
The Suns are going to be forced to choose between playing guys out of position and being a worse team for it or putting their highest paid players on the bench in order to avoid handing favorable mismatches to opponents. We saw last year that they’d rather be a worse team than let their star money ride the pine and sulk. I don’t expect this year to be different unless they reach the All-Star break and it has become clear the roster clearly isn’t working (and I think this is a strong possibility).
Three-point shooting percentages
The starting lineup of the Suns is terrible from three-point range. Keep in mind, the league average is 36%, and that Mark Williams has attempted a grand total of five three-pointers in his NBA career.
Player
2025-26 3PT%
Booker
33.0%
Green
31.3%
Brooks
34.4%
Bridges
33.3%
The results are likely to be disastrous. Without a three-point threat, defenses will sag, and none of the supposed “penetration” abilities of Green and Bridges will matter. It’s also worth noting that those abilities look pretty overrated when viewed through the lens of actual statistics and metrics. It’s difficult to understate the value of spacing as offensive magic.
It’s why Channing Fry was either first or second on the team during the Nash-era in on-court/off-court per 48: spacing meant almost as much to the team as having Steve Nash on the court. There might be three-point shooters on the bench who are great like Luke Kennard and Collin Gillespie, but then you run into the same problem as issue number one: you’re paying guys a lot of money (looking at Green and Bridges again here) to park their butts on the bench in order to field a viable team.
The new tanking rules
This one has a simple explanation: the Suns were basically the worst team that was still trying to win games last year. Basically everyone else was tanking hard. The Suns were 24-7 against teams that were below .500, and 21-30 against teams above .500. They also tended to blow out lottery-bound opponents, like the 45-point win versus the Pacers in November of 2025. With the new NBA anti-tanking rules in place next season, a lot of those easy Suns wins are going away. That could easily shave five or six wins off their total.
Rebounding/size and roster composition
This is something of a corollary to number one, but one of the consequences of playing small forwards at the power forward position is a lack of rebounding and interior defense. The Suns were 8th-worst in the league in opponent field goal percentage by allowing 65.8% shooting inside five feet. They were the 10th-worst in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. Over the offseason, their solution was to replace one small forward playing power forward with another.
It reminds me of the Suns’ decision to just throw Hedo Turkoglu (who spent his entire career as a small forward) at the power forward slot and hope for the best back in the 2010-2011 season. It was an unmitigated disaster. The Suns finished 40-42 in Nash’s last season with the team. Turkoglu got ragdolled every game, looked miserable, and promptly departed in free agency.
The only true power forward on the roster is Rasheer Fleming (Koa Peat is a tweener rookie who can’t shoot the three ball). They will be a lot better on the court when he plays, but those opportunities will be limited because every minute he plays takes away minutes from Brooks and Bridges.
Young player development
One of the assumptions is that the Suns’ young players will make a difference. However, there are significant barriers to this theory of improvement.
We already know that Ryan Dunn has struggled to find minutes because his three-point shot never developed, and his other offensive skills aren’t coming along enough either. Koa Peat is a 19-year old tweener SF/PF whose three-point shot is also suspect, and is fighting for minutes with Brooks, Bridges, Dunn, Highsmith, and Fleming as a developing player on a team intent on winning now.
I’ve already discussed how Fleming probably should be starting, but won’t because the team is already paying almost $60 million a year to a pair of SFs who expect to start. (Side note: nothing is a morale killer quite like getting paid less and being kept off the good projects than being better than the under-qualified, over-paid rock-stars). So, again, poor roster construction is going to impede this part of team success as well.
Finally, Khaman Maluach looked like the best player in the summer league. But he’s also competing for minutes with Mark Williams and Oso Ighodaro. Maluach’s three-point shot means he could probably play alongside Oso if he slid to the PF spot, but again, this takes away minutes from Bridges and Brooks. Additionally, Ighodaro is the best defensive big on the team, with top-tier abilities to switch, pass, and slip screens. It is unclear how Man-man will get minutes outside of injuries or sitting players paid three times what he is making.
Conclusion
National media was not a fan of the Suns’ offseason, particularly the Miles Bridges trade, and it’s not hard to see why. They went from playing a $10 million per year small forward at power forward to a $ 25 million per year small forward to do the same thing, but with a much worse three-point percentage. The roster is a mess of duplicative shooting guards and small forwards. Their starting lineup can’t hit threes, and as a group they’re probably going to lose significantly more games to lottery teams than they did last year. If the Suns regress towards .500 or slightly below, it should not come as a complete shock.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - FEBRUARY 23: Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat looks to drive toward the basket while being guarded by AJ Green #20 of the Milwaukee Bucks during the second half of the game at Fiserv Forum on February 23, 2025 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Welcome to Volume II of our “Choose Your Own Adventure” starter series, where we explore the Milwaukee Bucks’ options at each position. Read along, make your choice, and share your pick in the comments—if you dare!
This season, the Bucks will start their best shooting guard in a decade.
Marinate on that.
For a franchise coming out of arguably its best-ever era, this is no small feat.
A decade ago, the Bucks hadn’t won a second title. John Hammond was GM. Jason Kidd was head coach. Jabari Parker averaged 20 a game. So did Giannis—for the first time in his career.
Over the last ten years, in reverse-chronological order, the Bucks’ primary starters at the two have been AJ Green, Andre Jackson Jr., Malik Beasley, Grayson Allen, Donte DiVincenzo, Wes Matthews, Malcolm Brogdon, and Tony Snell. Brogdon and DiVincenzo aside—and there are even arguments there—the archetype has been clear: 3-and-D, low usage spacer. Considering the staples in the other starting slots, this was logical. Of course, in reality, it’s more often than not been 3-or-D, especially over the last five years. And, honestly, the Bucks haven’t had a whole lot of options.
Now, Milwaukee has an abundance of choice. Need a 20-plus per Boy Wonder, who can create off the dribble and hit from the logo? They’ve got that. Rather unleash a blue-chip rookie with the potential to become a guy? Got that too. What about rolling with a secondary playmaker, circumventing traditional wisdom for an overpaid vet, or reverting back to the status quo with someone who can snipe from the farm and sky? Check, check, check.
But with so many options, who should it be?
Disclaimer: Ryan Rollins isn’t listed below. Perhaps he should be, he can certainly play the position. But it’s a safe enough bet that he’ll be starting at the point—at least as far as I see it.
Start your adventure, go on to OPTION 1.
1. The whodidit: Tyler Herro
The logic for starting Tyler Herro is simple: he’s instantly the best two-guard the Bucks have had since Michael Redd and the best option the Bucks currently have as a go-to offensive option. A flat-out scorer, Herro can and does hit from everywhere on the court—70% from 0-3 feet, 56% from 3-10, 52% from 10-16, 42% from 16-3P, and 38% from three (per Basketball-Reference)—leading to an elite true shooting percentage of 60%. But he’s more than just a shooter. Herro is also a legitimate shot creator for others, especially in a secondary playmaking role (career 21% assist percentage), and turns it over less frequently (10.2% turnover percentage) than all of the other ball handling guards on the roster—and even AJ “I don’t dribble” Green.
Stats aside, Herro is the most proven commodity the Bucks have at the two and you just know he wants a revenge tour after being the subject of trade rumours for what feels like the entirety of his career. Fostering that, inflating his output leaning on his winning tradition and monetising celebrating his homecoming, might be the best long-term play for the Bucks too.
If you need someone to talk to (especially online), choose Herro. If not, turn to OPTION 2.
2. The blue-chipper: Brayden Burries
I’m not one to spit hyperbole—or overreact to summer league—but if you’ve seen Brayden Burries in action with a Bucks jersey on it’s hard not to fall in love with his game. Dude just has it. On or off ball, Burries is a straight killer—a wrecking ball on the way to the cup and a marksman from deep.
“Buzzer-Beater Burries” already showed he’s not afraid of the moment. And with offence so sweet you can see him morph into Book and defence so mean you might confuse him with Jrue, he’s the perfect guy to build around moving forward. He just needs the time—and a starting gig. In fact, Burries has so much potential that he should only ever be written about in future tense.
If you’ve got a ladder to get to his floor, choose Burries. If not, go to OPTION 3.
3. The secondary playmaker: Kevin Porter Jr.
Talk about a whirlwind. After being traded for MarJon Beauchamp before the trade deadline in 2025, Porter has gone from backup to starter to injured on opening night to playing out of his mind to injured again to balling out (but forgetting how to shoot) to being shut down for good to the operating theatre. Caught your breath?
Now, with the Bucks reloaded in the backcourt, Porter finds himself on the outer once again. In fact, despite being arguably the team’s best player last year, his decision to pick up his player option was a curious one, with the general feeling of (a) surprise, thinking he could have gotten something more lucrative (salary or duration) elsewhere, or (b) disenchantment, thinking we’ve had that experience and it’s time to move on.
Anyway, I digress. Porter is a Buck and he’s still one of the most talented players on the roster (if not the most). And while not the shooter you’d like to see at the two, he’s perhaps the best combination of scorer (17.4 PPG), playmaker (7.4 APG, 33.8% assist percentage), and defender (2.2 SPG, third in the league; 4.3 DRPG, 14.6% defensive rebounding percentage) the Bucks have at the position. Now that’s a reason to start him.
If youlike your offence with a side of chaos, stick with Porter. If not, turn to OPTION 4.
4. The Klutch one: Gary Trent Jr.
This time last year, Gary Trent Jr. was the third-ranked Buck in our Ranking the Roster series. As it turns out, it was for the worse. But while we were wrong—so, so wrong—Trent isn’t the drongo he showcased last season, either. And, in case you missed it, he did just re-up with Milwaukee for four years and $64m—so at least someone in the Bucks front office thinks he’s pretty good too!
Realistically, Trent shouldn’t be the Bucks’ starting shooting guard. But he might be the purest two on the squad, at least in the traditional sense of the position. And this is his case. Herro certainly has more positional versatility, having played significant portions of his career at the point (51% of playing time in 2023-24; 38% in 2024-25) and at small forward (20% last season). Burries and Porter are far more suited to ball-dominant roles too. Trent, however, is purely an off-ball threat, recording a lower average time of possession than every Buck sans Gary Harris, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Amir Coffey, and Alex Antetokounmpo. It’s a good thing too—have you seen him try to break guys down off the dribble? At his best, Trent is also better than AJ Green and he has come up Klutch clutch in the playoffs, which is why we all ranked him so highly to begin with.
If you’ve got a firm handshake, choose Trent—just know it might come back to bite you!Otherwise, move on to OPTION 5.
5. The status quo: AJ Green
Some scares are of the jump variety—they catch you off guard (pun intended) and you can’t do anything about them. AJ Green starting at the two for the 2026-27 Milwaukee Bucks would be one of those.
But first the positives. Green is an elite shooter and floor spacer and, somehow, he always seems to find himself in the most effective Bucks lineups—Giannis, Green, Porter, Bobby Portis, and Ryan Rollins five-man lineups recorded a net rating of +30.7 last year, while Giannis, Green, Rollins, Myles Turner, and Kyle Kuzma recorded a +28.3. And before you ask, it’s not all Giannis either; Green, Porter, Portis, Rollins, and Jericho Sims lineups recorded a +20.8. It’s also important to acknowledge that, last season, Green was put in too many disadvantageous situations where he was miscast as a three.
Still, having him start at the two over Herro or Burries or even Porter would be quite the shock to the system and a terrifying sign of things going awry in Milwaukee.
QUICK! Make a decision, you’re near the end. Choose Green if you’re stuck in the past (and don’t like any of the alternatives). Otherwise, pull a rabbit out of your hat and tell us who it is in the comments.
The Rays (76-50) and the Blue Jays (62-66) wrap up their three-game series this afternoon in St. Petersburg.
The teams have split the first two games of this series with Tampa winning last night, 7-6. Yandy Diaz cracked a two-run homer in the first to pace the attack and Drew Rasmussen was good enough to earn his sixth straight win as the Rays won for the ninth time in twelve games against the Jays this season. Alejandro Kirk continues to swing a hot bat for the Jays. The backstop went yard for the second straight game and extended his hitting streak to eight games in the process (14-33). Even with the loss yesterday, the Jays are 7-3 in their last ten games and just a game back of the final Wild Card spot. The Rays continue to set the pace in the AL East and the entire American League. They own the best record in the AL and lead the division by five games over the Yankees.
This afternoon, Toronto is expected to hand the ball to veteran Shane Bieber (4-2, 4.99 ERA) and Ian Seymour (9-3, 4.11 ERA) gets the start for Tampa Bay. Bieber’s season has been a roller coaster. The former AL Cy Young winner has shown flashes of the pitcher who dominated hitters earlier in his career, but consistency has been elusive. Specifically over his last four starts, Bieber has allowed one earned run twice but four and five runs respectively in the other two starts. The optimists in the crowd will put more faith in his most recent start. Last Friday, Bieber allowed just four hits and one run over six innings against the Yankees. Seymour has been dependable for the Rays this season. He has finished six innings over four of his last five starts. Seymour has allowed eight earned runs in 28.2 innings across those five starts. He has struck out 36 over those last five appearances.
Lets dive further into tonight’s game and find a sweat or two.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game Details and How to Watch: Blue Jays vs. Rays
Date: Thursday, August 20, 2026
Time: 1:10PM EST
Site: Tropicana Field
City: St. Petersburg, FL
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Sportsnet, Rays.TV
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The Latest Odds: Blue Jays vs. Rays
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline: Toronto Blue Jays (+152), Tampa Bay Rays (-163)
Spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-152), Rays -1.5 (+125)
Total: 7.5 runs
Probable Starting Pitchers – Blue Jays vs. Rays for August 20
Blue Jays: Shane Bieber Season Totals: 48.2 IP, 4-2, 4.99 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 37K, 24 BB
Rays: Ian Seymour Season Totals: 96.1 IP, 9-3, 4.11 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 115K, 31 BB
Who’s Hot? Who’s Not! Blue Jays vs. Rays
Jonathan Aranda, Junior Caminero, and Cedric Mullins have each gone yard once in their careers against Shane Bieber
Ernie Clement is 4-11 in his career against Ian Seymour
Andres Gimenez and Alejandro Kirk have each homered against Seymour in their respective careers
Yandy Diaz has hit in 10 straight games (19-43)
Chandler Simpson has also hit in 10 straight games (19-44)
Andres Gimenez saw his four-game hitting streak snapped last night (0-4)
Alejandro Kirk has hit safely in 8 straight games (14-33) including 3 HRs and 9 RBIs
Kazuma Okamoto has hit in 5 straight games (5-19)
Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type!
Top Betting Trends & Insights: Blue Jays vs. Rays
The Jays are 62-66 on the Run Line this season
The Rays are 71-55 on the Run Line this season
The OVER has cashed 64 times in Toronto’s 128 games this season (64-60-4)
The OVER has cashed 58 times in Tampa’s 126 games this season (58-63-5)
Expert picks & predictions: Blue Jays vs. Rays
Rotoworld Bet Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today’s game between the Jays and the Rays:
Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Rays on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5
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BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 19: Willson Contreras #40 of the Boston Red Sox bats during the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Wednesday, August 19, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images) | MLB Photos via Getty Images
Willson Contreras had some interesting comments following yesterday’s 7-6 loss to the D-Backs in which an angry contingent of Fenway fans booed him for not running hard up the first base line during his tenth inning groundout. But before we get to the quotes, here’s a look at the play just to make sure everybody’s up to speed:
Immediately after he arrived back in the dugout, the fuming first baseman engaged with one of the more aggressive fans and had them removed from the ballpark.
So I just witnessed Contreras just screaming at a fan for talking shit and got him kicked out during the final out. pic.twitter.com/nWcI9jRrrx
“If you’re a smart fan, you know what’s going on,”
“I’m not gonna get hurt running on a ground ball. If you’re a real fan and you know baseball, there’s no case for me to hustle out of the box.”
“I’m not 100%. We never are, but I’m taking care of my leg. If I have to run, I push it a little bit. If I don’t, my manager has my back. I talked to him and he gave me permission to do whatever it takes to take care of my legs.”
“I was feeling better until last night when I full-stretched my leg and it grabbed me a little bit. My manager knows that.”
On one hand, Contreras is absolutely right. No single groundout is worth hustling over if it means risking blowing out your leg, particularly if you’re unlikely to beat it out anyway. It’s far more prudent to nurse it where he can and save the more taxing efforts for high leverage moments. In this larger context, it all makes sense.
Or, at least it would make sense if the Red Sox were in a slightly different place in the standings. Because while the philosophy holds water while zooming out from an individual play to an entire game, it all gets flipped on its head once you zoom out further from the perspective of an individual game to the remaining season as a whole.
Right now, thanks largely to the gluttonous owners and their absurdly bloated playoff structure, the Red Sox find themselves in the rather ridiculous position of being both far enough behind Tampa for the division lead that they’re extremely unlikely to catch them, but also far enough ahead of the third Wild Card cutoff that they’re extremely unlikely to fall out of a postseason spot. They’re so far removed from a meaningful tension point, Fangraphs gives them a 95.1 percent chance to make the playoffs, but just a 2.7 percent chance to win the division. In other words, there’s a 92.4 percent chance they’re going to end up in that best-of-three Wild Card round.
Circling back to Contreras and his leg, if we’re going to apply the principle of giving up on certain plays with a low likelihood of mattering in favor of long-term health, shouldn’t we apply that same concept to the season as a whole? More to the point: If Willson Contreras can only run some of the time, why isn’t he on the IL?
If his leg is bothering him enough that he needs to (rightfully) manage it on certain low leverage, low probability plays within a game, why aren’t the Red Sox demanding he do the same on certain low leverage, low probability games within a season?
Unfortunately, the single most important thing Contreras can do to help the team right now is be as ready to go as possible for a best-of-three series starting on September 29th. I detest that MLB has come to this, but it’s the reality of being in an oversaturated playoff field. If this was 20 years ago, with just one Wild Card available, the Red Sox and Yankees would be locked in a highly captivating duel for the last crumb on the table. Every game would matter, animosity would be building, and we’d be scoreboard watching like a hawk for six weeks.
In that world, Contreras’ approach of playing through injury in this manner would be on the money. But we don’t live in that world anymore. Instead, we’re basically sitting around seeing how healthy everybody can get for a best-of-three series at the end of September. (I can’t tell you how angry this makes me as a baseball fan!)
In any case, the Red Sox are already playing the “get ready for September 29th” game with Justin Slaten and Garrett Whitlock, who are both on the IL. And the funny thing is, not having either of them around to pitch in the top of the tenth yesterday was a whole hell of a lot more impactful in terms of why they lost that game than Contreras not running out his grounder. So if we’re going to swim in those waters, why be inconsistent about it?
Oh, and if your concern here has anything to do with the bottom falling out in a potential Contreras absence, don’t worry about it. This group has already proven they can handle the ship in short bursts without their stars. Since July 1st, Contreras has missed or left 11 games from either suspension, sickness, injury or rest, and the Sox are 10-1 in those contests.
Ultimately, the bottom line is this: Contreras is either healthy enough to run down the first base line consistently or he’s not, and if he’s not, he shouldn’t be in these games. They’re not important enough. (Thanks MLB!)
Lastly, the Red Sox medical staff has already had a disastrous year in terms of diagnosing the initial severity of injuries, and if this season ends up crashing and burning in part because Willson Contreras ends up out for the year on an injury that could have healed with rest, I’m going to be a whole lot angrier than the fans who were booing Contreras at Fenway Park yesterday.
20 August 2026, Bavaria, Munich: Hockey, Soccer: Joint press conference by FC Bayern Munich and the National Hockey League (NHL). John-Jason Peterka (left to right), a player for the Boston Bruins; Alphonso Davies, a player for FC Bayern Munich; and Leon Draisaitl, a player for the Edmonton Oilers, pose in their jerseys at the press conference. Photo: Matthias Balk/dpa - IMPORTANT NOTICE: In accordance with the regulations of the Bundesliga and the German Football Association (DFB), it is prohibited to use or allow the use of photographs taken in the stadium and/or during the game in the form of sequential images and/or video-like photo series. (Photo by Matthias Balk/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Per a release from FCBayern.com, Bayern Munich and the National Hockey League are teaming up.
The two sporting giants have announced a strategic, multi-year partnership designed to grow the NHL in Germany while strengthening Bayern Munich’s presence in North America.
The collaboration will connect football and hockey fans through digital campaigns, co-branded content and merchandise, street hockey events in Munich, watch parties, Allianz Arena activations, youth programs, hospitality experiences and player appearances.
The partnership was unveiled at Säbener Straße with Alphonso Davies joined by German NHL stars Leon Draisaitl and JJ Peterka.
Rouven Kasper called it a partnership that can “set a new benchmark” for what cross-sport collaborations can achieve, while NHL President Keith Wachtel described Germany as one of the league’s most important international growth markets.
“FC Bayern is renowned for constantly breaking the mould – and we are very excited about this special partnership with the NHL. By developing ideas together with one of the most tradition-steeped leagues in world sport, the connection of our respective regions will create unique synergies on a wide variety of levels, in sports and beyond. We are creating a platform that promises long-term value for both partners and sets a new benchmark in terms of what cross-sport collaborations can achieve,” said Kasper.
Wachtel was equally excited about the partnership.
“Germany is one of the most important international growth markets for the NHL, and FC Bayern is one of the most famous and respected sport brands in the world. Through the combination of the NHL’s passion for ice hockey with FC Bayern’s extraordinary reach and closeness to fans, we have a massive strategic opportunity to get more people interested in our sport, deepen the connection to existing fans and create one-of-a-kind experience,” Wachtel stated.
And there is an exciting bonus for German hockey fans: Munich will host two NHL regular-season games during the 2027/28 season, featuring the Boston Bruins and Munich-born Peterka. Cologne will also host two games involving the Edmonton Oilers and Cologne native Draisaitl.
Football and hockey. Bayern Munich and the NHL.
This could be a fascinating partnership to watch develop.
Orel Hershiser and John Hartung speak during the launch of SportsNet LA on Feb. 25, 2014, in El Segundo. (Jerod Harris / Getty Images)
Thirteen years ago, on the final Sunday in September, Skip Schumaker struck out. It was the last out in the last game of the regular season.
For the Dodgers, no big deal: They had won the National League West, and the playoffs were four days away.
For Dodgers fans that subscribed to Cox Communications, it turned out to be the start of a bizarre and protracted blackout that cost viewers the final years of Vin Scully and the golden years of three World Series championships.
On Friday, for the first time in 13 years, Cox subscribers within the Dodgers’ broadcast territory will be able to watch the team on their local television home. Fans can find SportsNet LA on Channel 63 in Orange County, Channel 54 in Palos Verdes, Channel 36 in Santa Barbara and Channel 50 in Las Vegas.
How did this finally come to pass? Those channels no longer belong to Cox.
Charter Communications, the company responsible for getting SportsNet LA on as many cable, satellite and streaming options as possible, on Thursday closed its $34.5-billion purchase of Cox.
For Dodgers fans, the takeaway is this: It no longer matters that Cox did not want to pay Charter for the rights to air SportsNet LA. Charter made the 13 years of that moot by buying Cox.
Charter offers broadcast service under the Spectrum brand.
In 2013, with the team in the final year of its local television agreement with Fox Sports, the Dodgers announced it would launch a team-owned channel the following year.
In exchange for the rights to market and distribute that SportsNet LA channel, Time Warner Cable agreed to pay the Dodgers $8.35 billion over 25 years. It was the last great regional sports network deal, with traditional broadcast audiences about to fragment amid the rise of streaming and cord-cutting.
The guaranteed rights fees are as sure of a revenue stream as anything in baseball, and the Dodgers’ success amid all that cash is one of the triggers for major league owners in their push for a salary cap.
However, the great regional sports network deals relied on cable and satellite subscribers paying for every channel in a bundle, most of which viewers never watched.
With DirecTV leading the resistance, cable and satellite providers balked at signing up for SportsNet LA: a few dimes per month per subscriber for a news or entertainment channel was fine, but they drew the line at $5 per month subscriber for a baseball channel.
No major Los Angeles outlet besides Time Warner Cable carried SportsNet LA until 2016, and then only because Charter bought Time Warner Cable. Even then, less than half the households in the Los Angeles market could get SportsNet LA.
In 2020, DirecTV and AT&T struck a deal with Charter, not so much to liberate Dodgers fans as to help the parties maintain a shrinking base of subscribers amid a proliferation of video options.
“I think I can speak for a lot of people who will say this is, maybe, long overdue,” Dodgers star Justin Turner said then.
Six years later, as a longtime Cox subscriber excited to see SportsNet LA for the first time, your humble correspondent can say this: I think I can speak for a lot of people who will say this is definitely long overdue.
Every pitcher in the Little League World Series works under a hard limit. Once a 12-year-old reaches 85 pitches in a game, he or she comes off the mound, and how many pitches they threw determines how many days they have to sit before they can pitch again.
The rules come from the Little League rulebook. They apply the same way in Williamsport as they do on any field in the country. Managers plan around them from the first day of the tournament, because a double-elimination bracket rewards teams with a third and fourth pitcher more than teams with one good arm.
Little League moved to pitch counts in 2007, replacing a system that limited pitchers by innings. Under the old rules a 12-year-old could throw well past 100 pitches in a six-inning game, a number big league starters rarely reach. A 2011 University of North Carolina study commissioned by Little League found the program cut shoulder injury risk among pitchers ages 8 to 13 by half.
Here is how the limits, the rest chart and the catcher restrictions work:
How many pitches can a Little League pitcher throw?
Limits go by league age, not calendar age.
Ages 13 through 16: 95
Ages 11 and 12, the World Series division: 85 pitches
Ages 9 and 10: 75
Ages 7 and 8: 50
When a pitcher hits the number they're done. The one wrinkle is that they can finish the batter they're facing, staying in until that hitter reaches base or is retired or the third out ends the inning. So you'll occasionally see a kid finish with 89 in a game that caps at 85, and nothing is wrong.
Warm-up pitches don't count. Only what a pitcher throws to a hitter counts.
How many days of rest does a pitcher need?
Rest runs on calendar days and starts the day after the game.
66 to 85 pitches: four days
51 to 65: three days
36 to 50: two days
21 to 35: one day
Stretch that across a 12-day tournament and the problem shows up fast. Throw 70 on a Wednesday and you're not available again until Monday. An ace can win a team one game and leave it thin for the next three.
Nobody pitches on three calendar days in a row, whatever the counts say. And once a pitcher leaves the mound, they can't come back to it later in the same game.
The catcher rules
The pitching limits don't stop at the mound. Little League recognizes the catchers throwing as heavy arm work as well. The two positions are regulated together.
Three rules govern it.
A pitcher who throws 41 or more pitches can't catch that day. A player who catches four innings or more can't pitch that day. And a player who catches three innings or fewer and then moves to the mound and throws 21 or more pitches, can't go back behind the plate.
Catch more than three innings and you cannot pitch that day. The cutoff is strict. Three innings plus a single pitch in the fourth is enough to trigger the rule.
What happens if a team breaks the rule?
If a manager leaves a pitcher in past their limit, or brings them back without the required rest, the other team can protest.
Every game has an official pitch count recorder. That person has to give the current count to either manager or any umpire on request, and has to tell the umpire-in-chief the moment a pitcher reaches their limit. Whatever the recorder has is the count. What a coach has, or a parent has, doesn't matter.
Milan, Napoli and Atalanta all have new head coaches as Italian football hopes to return to the spotlight
And so, calcio’s “third apocalypse” has passed. A lot of Italians enjoyed the World Cup more than they expected. Without a team to cheer for, again, a country turned its attention to different sports. And found its athletes dominating them.
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - APRIL 14: Jack Hughes #86 of the New Jersey Devils waits for a face off during the second period against the Boston Bruins at TD Garden on April 14, 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by China Wong/NHLI via Getty Images) | NHLI via Getty Images
Here are your links for today:
Devils Links
A look at a few key advanced metrics trends for the Devils heading into the 2026-2027 season: [NHL.com]
“The New Jersey Devils want to turn optimism into substance this season with a new general manager, a recommitted captain and a roster reshaped around more size, versatility and scoring.” [NHL.com]
“The New Jersey Devils were a huge disappointment last season. They were widely considered a sneaky contender and Dom Luszczyszyn gave them the 9th best odds to win the Stanley Cup. Fast forward and they finished 21st in the league while missing the playoffs by 12 points. Not great! Let’s take a look at three reasons to be optimistic the Devils could have a much more successful campaign in 2026-27.” [Infernal Access ($)]
“The 2026-27 season is an important one for the New Jersey Devils. They have to make the playoffs, or there could be consequences next offseason if they miss. That means everyone has to play at a high level, but some players have more to prove than others. Let’s look at five Devils with the most to prove next season.” [Devils on the Rush]
“A healthy Jack Hughes changes the outlook more than almost any other single variable on the roster. That remains the clearest path to a better year in New Jersey.” [New Jersey Hockey Now]
Hockey Links
Everyone’s getting a new jersey:
Something new is coming to all 32 NHL cities this season. 👀
The countdown is on for the first-of-its-kind Hometown Remix program by the @NHL and @Fanatics. More details to come after the puck drops on the 2026-27 season next month. pic.twitter.com/zX1uBNLNZn
“If there’s one thing every NHL fan agrees on, it’s that anyone who bangs on the glass during play should go to jail. But if there’s a second thing, it’s that our favorite team is always getting lit up by some random rookie playing his first career game.” [The Athletic ($)]
“In the second half of our NHL 2030 series, we’re forecasting the future standings by ranking all 32 teams from worst to first. Who will lift the 2030 Stanley Cup? How has each franchise’s outlook shifted since we checked in last offseason?” [Daily Faceoff]
“Welcome to this year’s edition of the under-23 NHL player rankings. After ranking every organization’s best young players in the NHL Pipeline Rankings, we now turn to a ranking of the best young players overall on teams’ reserve lists, meaning within an NHL organization, in or outside the league. This is a ranking meant to show who I think will have the best NHL careers, not who I would take in a game tomorrow. This is also a good exercise to show how the last five age groups compare to each other, as this largely spans the player pool from the 2022 through 2026 NHL Drafts.” [The Athletic ($)]
Feel free to discuss these and any other hockey-related stories in the comments below.
Jul 3, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
I’m writing on August 19, and Jake Bauers has a 146 OPS+ in 452 plate appearances. The last time a Milwaukee Brewer had a 146 wRC+ in a season in which they had even 350 plate appearances was in 2019, when Christian Yelich was in the second of his back-to-back MVP-caliber seasons.
Of course, there’s a good chunk of season left, so we don’t know how things will end up. But Jake Bauers, right now, is as good an offensive weapon as the Brewers have had in the past seven years — a span in which the Brewers have made the playoffs in all but one season and in which they’ve won four, perhaps soon to be five, division titles. On top of his on-field play, Bauers has also turned into a team leader; it was he who spoke out after the Brewers’ tough series in San Diego last week, and he who sparked their turnaround in Los Angeles, where they took three of four to salvage a solid road trip at the end of a 17-games-in-17-days stretch.
How did we get here?
If you told someone in 2017 that 10 years later Bauers would be one of the league’s best hitters (Bauers is eighth in the league in OPS+ at the start of play on Wednesday), that wouldn’t have surprised anyone. Bauers was a seventh-round pick of the Padres out of high school all the way back in 2013, but he was included in a massive trade after the 2014 season (one which included such highly regarded prospects and young players as Wil Myers, Trea Turner, and Joe Ross) that sent him to Tampa Bay. In the Rays system, Bauers thrived; in 2016, when he was just 20, he hit .274/.370/.420 with 14 home runs and 28 doubles at Double-A Montgomery, and he started appearing on top 100 prospect lists heading into 2017. Another strong season in 2017 (.263/.368/.412 as a 21-year-old at Triple-A Durham) put him on the major league doorstep. He was 22, and Baseball America had him as a top 50 prospect.
After that, things got rocky. He debuted with the Rays in 2018 and slugged a bit with 11 homers and drew a bunch of walks in 388 plate appearances, but he hit just .201. After the season, he was sent to Cleveland in a big trade that ended up with Carlos Santana in Cleveland and Yandy Díaz in Tampa (the Mariners took back some cash, a pick, and the shell of Edwin Encarnación). Bauers played 117 games for Cleveland in 2019 but hit just .226/.312/.371 (a 78 OPS+). He didn’t make Cleveland’s roster in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and thus didn’t play baseball; in 2021, he got off to a poor start and was traded yet again, to Seattle, but the names in the trades that Bauers was included in at this point were losing some shine; Seattle sent a pitcher named Damon Casetta-Stubbs who never got above High-A.
The struggles continued in Seattle, and Bauers could only manage a minor league deal as a free agent in 2022. He played 29 games in Cincinnati’s system and hit .135/.276/.271. The Yankees brought him on and he hit .226/.352/.406 for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Things finally turned around a bit for the now 27-year-old Bauers in 2023; it was just a 24-game sample, but Bauers hit .359/.485/.897 (!) with 11 home runs in 97 plate appearances before he earned another chance in the big leagues with New York. The batting average was still poor, but Bauers did flash some power; 12 homers in 272 plate appearances for the Yankees in 84 games in 2023.
The Brewers traded for him after the season, sending a couple of lottery tickets, Jace Avina and Brian Sanchez, for him. As we all know here, the struggles continued for Bauers: in 117 games and 346 PA in 2024, he hit only .199. He did walk a lot, and he hit 12 homers, and Pat Murphy seemed to like him. He stuck around in 2025. Through 60 games played, Bauers was hitting .197 with five home runs in 151 plate appearances. On July 18, he went on the injured list with shoulder inflammation.
What changed?
It’s not entirely clear what happened in the four-ish weeks that Bauers spent on the injured list, but something happened. Bauers has talked about simplifying his approach, and in interviews these days you’ll hear him talk often about mental things like remaining even-keeled, not letting himself get too high or too low, valuing his family, and keeping a long view of things.
Whatever happened, Bauers was a different hitter. After a few games shaking the rust off, Bauers hit .360/.458/.560 in 22 games in September. In six postseason games, he hit .308 with a double and a homer in 14 plate appearances. This season, he has shown that whatever happened in that small sample at the end of the 2025 season has endured.
So what actually happened?
The fact is, Bauers always had some good indicators. Look at his Statcast pages going back to 2023; Bauers was always good at finding the barrel and hitting the ball hard. He didn’t chase much. He always swung the bat hard — he’s a strong guy. But the thing that really sticks out is strikeouts. Check out his strikeout percentages:
2023: 34.9% (unqualified on Statcast, but bottom five-percent-ish)
2024: 34.1%, 2nd percentile
2025: 27.1% (unqualified, but 15th percentile-ish)
2026: 24.8% (27th percentile)
Bauers still strikes out a lot, but he is vastly improved from four years ago, and the change that has made to his other indicators is enormous. While he was always getting his barrel on the ball and hitting it hard, he wasn’t putting the ball in play enough to be a major factor. But now look at the effect the increased balls in play have had on his expected batting average and slugging percentages:
2023: .221 xBA, .475 xSLG
2024: .199 xBA, .389 xSLG
2025: .234 xBA, .457 xSLG
2026: .260 xBA, .484 xSLG
Bauers has also always been an elite walk-taker; I mentioned the chase percentage as a major strength earlier, and to illustrate the point he was in the 88th percentile in walk percentage even when he was badly struggling in 2024. Bauers has sported walk percentages of 14.7 and 14.6% in the last two seasons; he’s in the top 10 in walk percentage this year and would’ve been last year if he’d qualified.
Bauers is a poor fielder. His reputation as a good defensive first baseman is merely a reputation at this point — his numbers don’t back it up. He does offer the Brewers value by being able to play in the outfield, and it has enabled them to opt for some offense-heavy lineups during times when they’ve really needed a boost. But let’s not pretend that Bauers is by any means a good, or even decent, defensive outfielder.
That does not diminish his value to the team, though. With Christian Yelich and William Contreras struggling badly for huge swaths of the 2026 season, with Jackson Chourio still in the “young and streaky” phase of his career (and absent for the first six weeks of the season), the Brewers needed someone to step up and lead the offense. Brice Turang has done his part, but Bauers is the guy who has been there all year, steadily. Bauers has five more homers than any other Brewer, he’s walked more than every Brewer except Turang (who has two more walks in 75 more plate appearances), his OPS+ is 12 points higher than the next highest (Andrew Vaughn) and 25 points higher than another player with 300 plate appearances (Turang).
Where do we go from here?
It’s certainly a question as to whether Bauers will be back to ply his trade with the Brewers beyond this season. He is a free agent, and he’s played well enough this season that he’s very possibly going to be the best free agent first baseman on the market. The Brewers very well may offer Bauers the qualifying offer (a decision that would be made before the looming lockout); would Bauers take it?
My guess is no — he’ll be 31 before the postseason is over, and according to Spotrac, Bauers’ career earnings are currently less than $10 million. I mean, I’d be happy to take that for my own career earnings, but we’re talking relatives here; this will be Bauers’ best chance to lock in generational wealth for his family. The roughly $22 million qualifying offer is a lot (and the Brewers should offer it, with Brandon Woodruff coming off the books), but at his age and with his limited track record of success beyond this season, I strongly suspect Bauers would be more likely to take a longer-term, higher-value deal even if the average annual value was lower.
Could the Brewers still be in on that deal? I’m looking at something like Christian Walker’s three-year, $60 million deal signed with the Astros before the 2025 season. Walker definitely had a longer record of success at that point — he’d averaged over three WAR per 162 games over the previous six seasons — but he was also entering his age-34 season, three years older than Bauers. Three years and $60 million would be a lot for the Brewers. Would Bauers settle for something like three years and $45 million? Or two years and $40 million? It’s hard to say, and it’s kind of difficult for me to believe that, given the offensive struggles of some of the league’s wealthiest teams this season, there wouldn’t be a team out there that would beat an offer like that. Plus, we’re all working in hypotheticals here, anyway — we do not know exactly what sort of limits on free agent contracts may or may not exist after the lockout.
(One other quick note that could apply here: if the Brewers do offer Bauers the qualifying offer and he declines it and signs elsewhere, Milwaukee does recoup a draft pick. But where that pick ends up could be a question; under current rules, if he signed for less than $50 million, it would be after the second round; if more than $50 million, it’s after the first round.)
For now, let’s worry about next year next year. Bauers has been immense for the Brewers this season, and given how long it took him to get to his place, it’s a good story, too. He’s probably going to end up with some down-ballot MVP votes this year, a nearly unthinkable outcome after the first couple years of Bauers’ Brewers tenure. Great teams often need a player like this to step up unexpectedly, and Bauers, at a bargain price, is doing that for the 2026 Brewers as they march toward the league’s best record.
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - AUGUST 19: Pete Alonso #25 of the Baltimore Orioles reacts during a review in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 19, 2026 in Baltimore, Maryland. The review resulted in the play being a foul ball. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) | Getty Images
Hello, friends.
Pete Alonso hit a fair ball into the left field seats last night that should have been a go-ahead home run. Let’s just get that one out of the way right off the top. It’s unbelievable that the umpire did not call a fair ball live and it’s even more unbelievable that the replay center did not accept the decisive angle that would have given the Orioles a 4-3 lead. I don’t subscribe to any conspiracy theories. I think those people are just bad at their jobs.
It is one of those times I would have liked to see some fire from the manager. The figurative shadow of Earl Weaver looms over any major league field involving the Orioles. Craig Albernaz doesn’t have to do it Earl’s way, but he does need to do it some way. Just get caught being mad at the umpires when the process has screwed over your team. Point, yell, gesticulate, whatever, let the team know you’re not going to take it sitting down. Go around yelling at people until they eject you, then yell a little more.
Albernaz doesn’t seem to do this; he didn’t do it last night anyway. I don’t think it’s why the Orioles lost the game. They lost because they have an insufficient number of relievers to rely upon, and also because they went 0-6 with runners in scoring position. I just think it’s something that Albernaz should have done.
The Orioles bullpen being what it is lately, maybe Alonso getting the home run that he deserved would have only set up an even more tragic way of blowing the freshly-earned lead. Two runs were charged to Cam Sanders in an eighth inning outing where he hit two batters and walked another one. It’s not good to have to rely on guys of this ilk. You might get a few pleasant surprises out of them initially but guys like this are relatively cheaply available for a reason and the longer you give them, the more likely they’ll show you.
It’s a bad way to build a bullpen and these weaknesses have been exposed even more since Mike Elias decided to trade Tyler Wells ahead of the deadline. Grant Wolfram has fallen apart. Rico Garcia had his problems recently. Yennier Cano has hit a rough patch since being called into higher-leverage later-game situations. And those are just the ones you might have liked at one time. There are other, rougher names involved.
Perhaps there’s going to be at least one new face coming soon to the bullpen. Orioles beat writers, including The Baltimore Banner’s Andy Kostka, put this one out last night:
Is De León going to be anything? I don’t know. He was only promoted to Triple-A Norfolk recently and he’s got a 5.28 ERA and 1.83 WHIP through his first four games. Just last night, he walked three batters over the course of a scoreless inning of relief. He is the #7 prospect on MLB Pipeline’s recently-updated top Orioles prospect list. He becomes Rule 5 draft eligible this offseason. Perhaps they think he can be an extra weapon out of the bullpen. Perhaps they’ll even be right.
The 2026 American League playoff situation being what it is, the Orioles did not lose any ground in the wild card chase. The Blue Jays lost. The Guardians lost. The Tigers lost. The Rangers lost. Only the Twins were winners, so they now stand in the third wild card spot, half a game ahead of Texas and a touch farther ahead of others. Minnesota is off today. The Orioles only have to win to peel back the half game.
They need the win also to avoid being swept by the Yankees. I’ve gotta say, folks, it is entirely in character for the 2026 team to really rope people in with winning the first three games of that Rays series only to fall apart after that. They lost the next three games, each in fairly agonizing fashion. They try to avoid a fourth straight loss as the series concludes starting at 6:35 tonight. It won’t be easy: Gerrit Cole is pitching for New York. Kyle Bradish makes the start for the O’s.
Albernaz must trust starters when they earn it (The Baltimore Sun) The Sun was taking Albernaz to task yesterday for pulling Shane Baz in Tuesday’s game. Many people took the opposite view, that Baz wasn’t pulled soon enough.
Alexander nearing rehab assignment and return (School of Roch) Samuel Basallo is back, Blaze Alexander is close to a rehab assignment, is there enough time for things to come back together? On that question, make sure you vote in our poll that’s running this week.
Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries
The most recent Orioles victory on today’s date came two years ago, when they knocked off the Mets by a 9-5 margin to pull into first place in the AL East by a half-game margin. Anthony Santander and James McCann each homered in the game. Dean Kremer was pretty good. Just four of the fifteen players who appeared in that box score for the team are on the 40-man roster right now.
There are a pair of former Orioles who were born on this day. They are: 1996-2001 outfielder Gene Kingsale, and 1955-59 pitcher George Zuverink.
Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: Chilean Supreme Director Bernardo O’Higgins (1778), 23rd president Benjamin Harrison (1833), horror author H.P. Lovecraft (1890), baseball Hall of Famer Al López (1908), musician/actor Isaac Hayes (1942), TV weatherman Al Roker (1954), actor Ke Huy Quan (1971), and singer-songwriter Demi Lovato (1992).
On this day in history…
In 636, the expanding Rashidun Caliphate defeated the Byzantine Empire in the Battle of the Yarmuk, seizing control of the area of modern-day Syria from the Byzantines.
In 1648, France defeated a Spanish-Lorraine force in the Battle of Lens, a decisive victory that paved the way for the Peace of Westphalia and the end of the Thirty Years War later in the year.
In 1858, the theory of evolution developed by Charles Darwin was first published in a journal titled The Journal of the Proceedings of the Linnean Society of London.
In 1882, the 1812 Overture by Tchaikovsky had its premiere performance in Moscow.
In 1977, the Voyager 2 probe launched, actually launching before Voyager 1 even though it’s numbered second. The probe passed by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune over the next 12 years and is now over 13.3 billion miles from Earth.
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And that’s the way it is in Birdland on August 20. Have a safe Thursday. Go O’s!
