Six reasons why 2025 Red Sox can be different and end playoff drought originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
Relative to preseason expectations, the 2025 season has been a disappointment for the Boston Red Sox.
The Red Sox entered Monday in fourth place in the American League East standings, six games behind the first-place New York Yankees with a 40-39 record. On the surface, this season looks like more of the same for a club that hasn’t clinched a playoff berth since 2021.
Here’s a look at Boston’s record through its first 79 games of the last four seasons:
- 2022: 44-35
- 2023: 40-39
- 2024: 43-36
- 2025: 40-39
That’s discouraging, especially if you’re among those who bought into the bounce-back hype after a seemingly successful offseason. This year’s club is three games behind the 2024 club’s pace, and that team defined mediocrity with an 81-81 record.
So, why should we still believe the 2025 Red Sox will be any different?
While we understand the reluctance to buy in, there are several reasons for optimism as we approach the halfway point in the season. Keep reading if you need convincing…
The AL East is still there for the taking
Fourth place isn’t so bad when only six games separate the Red Sox from the first-place Yankees, who have struggled mightily as of late. New York recently lost six consecutive games with three straight shutouts during that stretch. Boston, meanwhile, won four straight series (including a sweep of the Yankees) before dropping two of three against San Francisco over the weekend.
Make no mistake: The American League East remains up for grabs. The Red Sox haven’t been this close to the top of the division at this point in the season since 2021. They were nine games back on June 23 last year.
Boston seemingly won’t have to worry about the Baltimore Orioles, who are a stunning 33-44 after entering the season as a popular World Series pick. The Toronto Blue Jays (41-36) are two games ahead, but they’ve started to come back down to earth after going 11-3 from May 29 to June 11. The Tampa Bay Rays (43-35) are only 3.5 games ahead of the Red Sox despite greatly outperforming their preseason expectations.
The AL East isn’t the powerhouse it used to be, and it’s still on the table for Boston with three months left to play.
In the Wild Card conversation
Of course, the more realistic outcome for the 2025 Red Sox is one of the three AL Wild Card spots. As of Monday, Boston is only a half-game behind the Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians (39-37) for the third and final Wild Card berth. The Rays and Blue Jays are first and second in the Wild Card spots, respectively.
There’s no reason the Red Sox shouldn’t remain in the Wild Card mix. The only non-division-leading AL teams with better run differentials than Boston (+15) are the Rays (+70) and Texas Rangers (+16).
The bullpen is much improved
The Red Sox have turned one of their most glaring weaknesses into one of their biggest strengths.
Last year, Boston’s bullpen ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.39 ERA. This season, it ranks sixth with a 3.35 ERA.
Offseason signing Aroldis Chapman has helped the cause with an All-Star-caliber season. The 37-year-old closer has been lights-out, recording a 1.41 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 45 strikeouts and only nine walks over 35 appearances (32 innings).
Garrett Whitlock’s return to a relief role has also paid dividends. The right-hander has a 2.82 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 28 appearances.
Other key contributors include Greg Weissert (2.83 ERA), Justin Wilson (2.08 ERA), and Brennan Bernardino (3.10 ERA). If the Red Sox end their playoff drought, their improved bullpen will be one of the biggest reasons why.
The rotation is heating up at the right time
A month ago, the Red Sox’ starting rotation was the club’s biggest disapointment. It was a disaster after ace Garrett Crochet with no starters stepping up in the No. 2 spot.
That has changed over the last two weeks. Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito have rebounded from their rough starts to the campaign with multiple quality outings in that span. Hunter Dobbins has been a mixed bag, but he has mostly impressed as a rookie unexpectedly thrust into the spotlight.
If Walker Buehler snaps out of his slump, it’ll go a long way toward keeping Boston in postseason contention.
Reinforcements are coming
June has been the Red Sox’ hottest month despite the absence of All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman, who has been out since May 23 due to a quad injury. Bregman looked like an AL MVP candidate before going down, posting 11 homers and 35 RBI with a .938 OPS in 51 games.
According to manager Alex Cora, Bregman’s return feels like it’s going to be “sooner rather than later.” Not only will he bring a much-needed boost to the Rafael Devers-less lineup, but he’ll also solidify Boston’s best possible infield alignment: Bregman at third base, Trevor Story at shortstop, rookie Marcelo Mayer at second, and the Abraham Toro/Romy Gonzalez tandem at first.
Also nearing his return is designated hitter Masataka Yoshida, who has yet to play in a game this season due to offseason shoulder surgery. Cora said Yoshida could begin a rehab assignment soon now that the team’s DH spot is open.
Huge trade deadline ahead
It looks like the fate of the 2025 Red Sox will rest in the hands of chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.
Boston hasn’t had a winning record in August since 2019. One could argue the organization’s lackluster trade deadlines have been to blame, especially over the last two seasons.
In 2023, the Chaim Bloom-led Red Sox acquired only infielder Luis Urias and reliever Mauricio Llovera. Last year, Breslow traded for relievers Luis Garcia and Lucas Sims, catcher Danny Jansen, and veteran left-hander James Paxton.
Garcia and Sims were solid before becoming massive disappointments in Boston. Jansen gave the Red Sox a much-needed right-handed bat, though he wasn’t exactly the slugger many fans had envisioned. Paxton was in the midst of a bounce-back season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but he again failed to stay healthy in a Red Sox uniform.
It wasn’t a lack of effort by Breslow, but none of his deadline moves made a meaningful difference as the Red Sox missed the playoffs for a third straight year.
Boston cannot afford to strike out at the trade deadline again. If still in the hunt come late July, Breslow must be willing to make bold, aggressive moves that energize the team for August, September, and potenitally October.
The 2025 Red Sox still have a chance to be different, but their success will almost certainly hinge on the moves they make from now through July 31.