Category: Sports News

27. Riley Kelly (79 points, 10 ballots)

Kelly was Colorado’s fourth round pick, 107th overall, in the 2025 draft out of UC-Irvine. The 6’5” 21-year-old righty starter signed for a $700k bonus, just about $15k under the slot value. Like many other high Rockies draftees, Kelly was a high school quarterback with some good athleticism. He was thought of highly enough in high school to be in the top 250 of MLB Pipeline and get drafted in the 20th round in 2022 by Arizona (though he didn’t sign). His standout trait is a high-RPM (3,000+) curveball, combined with low to mid-90s velocity and a decent changeup.

The first couple years of college didn’t go well for Kelly, who threw only 20 1/3 innings with poor results while battling a back injury. In his draft year, Kelly started the season in the bullpen for UC-Irvine before moving back to the rotation in mid-March. In his second start, he outdueled eventual 2025 #2 overall pick Tyler Bremner en route to a season total of 66 2/3 innings with a 3.78 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 rate, and 4.3 BB/9 rate. Kelly didn’t pitch in an official game in the Rockies’ system after signing.

Here’s a look at Kelly after his sophomore campaign in 2024:

Kelly was ranked 139th overall by MLB Pipeline in the draft (20 spots ahead of Rockies third round pick and fellow PuRP Ethan Hedges) and is now ranked 19th in the system (two spots behind Hedges) as a 40 FV player with 55 grades on his fastball and curveball:

Kelly’s fastball sits around 92-93 mph and he can crank it up to 96 at times. But his best pitch has always been his curve, especially when he can land it for strikes. It’s a nasty 11-to-5 breaker thrown in the upper 70s that routinely registers over 3,000 rpm and flashes plus. He has a low-80s changeup that can be effective as well.

While Kelly’s strike-throwing has been inconsistent, scouts saw better quality strikes with the move to the rotation. He should get every opportunity to start, with the knowledge that the fastball-curve combination could tick up if he had to move back to the ‘pen.

Here’s what Keith Law of the Athletic wrote about Kelly after the 2025 draft:

UC Irvine right-hander Riley Kelly (4) moved from the Anteaters’ bullpen to the rotation this year and blossomed, making 12 starts along with five relief appearances and lowering his ERA by a run and a half. He’s up to 96 but he sits more 91-93, generating a ton of whiffs on his 82-85-mph straight change, although his 11/5 curveball looks like it should be his best pitch. He has 45 control right now, but if that gets to 50, he’s a starter.

If Kelly can command that hammer, generate a bit more velocity on the fastball, and stick in the rotation, he becomes an interesting starter prospect. Pending that evidence, I ranked Kelly as a 35+ FV player with some upside and put him 26th on my list. Kelly will start 2026 at High-A Spokane or Low-A Fresno, probably the latter.

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The final review of the 2025 season will be looking at each position in the Astros farm system. Next up is the outfield position.

BEST OF THE BUNCH

Alonzo Tredwell

Tredwell was the Astros 2nd round pick back in the 2023 draft and he had a breakout season this year. The right-hander pitched across three different levels and posted a 3.69 ERA with 122 strikeouts over 100 innings. This included a dominant 40 strikeouts over 22.2 innings in Double-A to end the season.

2025 Stats: 26 G, 3.69 ERA, 100.0 IP, 85 H, 41 ER, 45 BB, 122 K, 11.0 K/9

Bryce Mayer

Mayer, a 16th round pick in last year’s draft and looks to be another diamond for the Astros. The right-hander started in Single-A and struck out 30 over 17.2 innings earning a promotion to High-A. In Asheville he posted a 2.85 ERA with 45 K in 41 innings. He finished the season in Double-A striking out 37 over 29 innings. He was the Astros minor league pitcher of the year.

2025 Stats: 21 G, 4.11 ERA, 87.2 IP, 76 H, 40 ER, 27 BB, 112 K, 11.5 K/9

Miguel Ullola

Ullola started the season well and then hit a rough patch but turned it around late. In his first full season in Triple-A, Ullola posted a 3.88 ERA with 131 strikeouts over 113.2 innings. He also allowed just 75 hits, good for a .186 batting average against. When he cuts down on the walks, he is dominant.

2025 Stats: 28 G, 3.88 ERA, 113.2 IP, 75 H, 49 ER, 78 BB, 131 K, 10.4 K/9

Ethan Pecko

Pecko had some injuries early in the year but after getting healthy, the 2024 minor league pitcher of the year got back to his normal self. He had a 4.40 ERA in Double-A but that included a 1.75 ERA over his final six outings in Double-A. He got a promotion to Triple-A where he finished with a 3.09 ERA and 48 strikeouts in 35 innings. He should be in Houston in 2026.

2025 Stats: 20 G, 3.83 ERA, 80.0 IP, 73 H, 34 ER, 27 BB, 95 K, 10.7 K/9

Trey Dombroski

After a tough season in 2024 for Dombroski, he turned things around this year. The left-hander posted a 3.61 ERA with 116 strikeouts over 112.1 innings. He allowed just 91 hits in Double-A good for a 7.3 H/9, down from 11.1 H/9 last year. He made two starts in Triple-A too and should start there next season.

2025 Stats: 28 G, 3.95 ERA, 120.2 IP, 99 H, 53 ER, 55 BB, 122 K, 9.1 K/9

THE REST OF THE PACK

Joan Ogando

Ogando pitched the full season for the Woodpeckers and had some ups and downs. The 21-year-old had a 4.07 ERA overall, but had some really good months posting a 3.24 ERA in April and a 3.18 ERA in June. Overall he finished with 113 strikeouts in 94.2 innings, though he did walk 69.

2025 Stats: 25 G, 4.09 ERA, 94.2 IP, 55 H, 43 ER, 69 BB, 13 K, 10.7 K/9

Anthony Cruz

Cruz is an undersized right-hander who put together a solid season in 2025. He started the year in Fayetteville and had a 3.75 ERA with 84 strikeouts over 84 innings. He earned a promotion to High-A where he had a 5.12 ERA, though he also had 20 strikeouts in 19.1 innings. Overall he had a 4.01 ERA.

2025 Stats: 25 G, 4.01 ERA, 103.1 IP, 87 H, 46 ER, 53 BB, 104 K, 9.1 K/9

Jose Fleury

Fleury has been on the radar as a possible top prospect for a couple of seasons now. He started out the season on fire posting a 0.82 ERA with 25 K in 22 innings in April. He missed some time in May but came back in June and was eventually promoted to Triple-A where he had a 6.95 ERA over 45.1 innings.

2025 Stats: 23 G, 4.55 ERA, 85.0 IP, 74 H, 43 ER, 35 BB, 78 K, 8.3 K/9

Jackson Nezuh

Nezuh had a monster first year in the system in 2024 but struggled some in Double-A in 2025. He finished the season strong though posting a 1.67 ERA over his final six games. He would end up finishing the season with a 4.34 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 76.2 innings between Double-A and a couple outings in the FCL.

2025 Stats: 20 G, 4.34 ERA, 120.2 IP, 99 H, 53 ER, 55 BB, 122 K, 9.1 K/9

2026 OUTLOOK

Pitching is always tricky. As it stands, the Astros will be leaning on Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Mike Burrows, Cristian Javier and newly acquired Tatsuya Imai. The Astros have some strong arms in Ullola, Pecko and Mayer. Then some other strong options like Tredwell, Forcucci (hasn’t pitched yet) and Dombroski. As we have seen in previous years, we know the Astros will need well more than five starters so plenty of chances for these prospects to shine in 2026.

The San Diego Padres have won precisely one World Series game in the history of their franchise. On October 10, 1984, they defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-3 in Game 2 of that season’s Fall Classic. Their starter, Ed Whitson, gave up more runs (three) than he recorded outs (two). So out of the bullpen came 24-year-old Andy Hawkins, who’d been abysmal for the Padres in ’84 (-1.6 bWAR). All he did was hurl 5.1 frames of shutout ball, earning himself the win.

Several years later, Hawkins found himself on the free agent market and identified the Yankees as a team he thought would be competitive during his tenure. Ultimately, he signed on the dotted line to come to the Bronx. He was, sadly, completely wrong on the Yankees’ timeline to be competitive, so he never came close to the AL pennants he hoped for. Nonetheless, he holds a place in Yankee lore, tossing one of the more infamous no-hitters in baseball history.

Name: Melton Andrew Hawkins
Born: January 21, 1960 (Waco, TX)
Yankees Tenure: 1989-91

Hawkins grew up in Texas, playing baseball. Larger than many of his peers, his father (and eventually his coach) realized he needed to be pushed. The talent was never in question, though. When the 1978 MLB Amateur Draft rolled around, Hawkins did not have to wait long for his name to get called. Picking fifth overall, the San Diego Padres nabbed the 18-year-old.

By 1982, Hawkins found himself in the majors, where he embarked on an inconsistent trajectory. In limited action his rookie season, he struggled. But the next season, far from a sophomore slump, Hawkins put together one of his finest seasons, pitching to a 2.93 ERA (121 ERA+) in 119.2 innings. 1984, however, was the exact opposite as he pitched poorly enough to get demoted to the bullpen before earning his World Series redemption (he ended up pitching in three games that October, allowing one run in 12 innings).

After an excellent 1985, he struggled again the next two seasons. But with his free agency approaching, Hawkins picked an excellent time to have a bounce-back season in 1988. That December, the Yankees showed up to the Winter Meetings, looking to perhaps offload Dave Winfield. When that looked like a losing proposition, General Manager Bob Quinn quickly pivoted.

At the top of their list? The 28-year-old Hawkins, fresh off a 14-win season in San Diego. It did not take long for a deal to come together. A day after the initial reporting on Hawkins emerged in the New York Times, he and the Yanks came to an agreement. Hawkins signed a 3-year, $3.6 million deal, the largest and longest deal he was offered in free agency.

Manager Dallas Green immediately designated Hawkins the “anchor” of the Yanks’ rotation. That raised some eyebrows. Murray Chass, in the Times, remarked that the label “raised instant questions about the talent that will make up the rotation.”

Hawkins was up-and-down in his first half-season as a Yankee. He won 11 of his first 19 starts, going at least seven innings in 10 of them… but… his ERA spent all of May and June bouncing between 5.00+ and 6.00+. It looked like he’d steadied the ship with back-to-back shutouts to move him to 11-8. Then the wheels fell off. He went 4-7 the remainder of the season as the Yanks sunk to a fifth-place finish in the AL East.

1990 was no better. By mid-May, Hawkins was 1-3 with an ERA north of 7.00. Then he took the mound on May 16^th. And he was perfect. Except… the weather did not cooperate. Hawkins faced 13 hitters. He retired 13 hitters. Eventually though, the game was called and later made up as part of a double-header. It’s easy to find in his game logs. Just look for the game where Hawkins is credited for pitching 11.2 innings versus Minnesota. It was not the last time in 1990 that Hawkins crossed paths with baseball immortality.

The game he’s most known for happened that season on July 1^st. Facing the Chicago White Sox, Hawkins opened with 4.2 perfect frames before walking a pair, ensuring there would be no perfect game. He still allowed nary a hit though. Fast forward to the eighth inning. An error put a man on for Chicago then Hawkins again walked a pair of Pale Hose batters to load the bases.

Robin Ventura then lofted a fly ball to left that, in the swirling winds, clanked off Jim Leyritz’s glove. Three runs scored on the error, the second of the inning. A fourth run followed on yet another error, before Hawkins could escape. Still with the no-hitter intact, he and the Yanks now trailed 4-0 and ultimately lost by that margin.

That was the high point as a Yankee for Hawkins, which is strangely fitting in a way. Neither he nor the club found the success each hoped for when he signed his deal. He struggled for the rest of the 1990 season and he was so bad in ’91 that the Yankees released him in early May. He signed with the Athletics nine days later and spent the next four months pitching for them before they released him, ending his major league career as a player.

Several years after his retirement, Hawkins got back into baseball, this time as a coach. He spent 2001-15 (except for one season in Kansas City) with the Rangers staff. After disappearing from baseball for a couple years, Hawkins now coaches with the Salt Lake Bees of the Pacific Coast League. Happy birthday, Andy.

References

Andy Hawkins. Baseball-Reference.

Chass, Murray.“ Baseball; Yankees Woo Hawkins After Trade Talks Fail.” New York Times. December 8, 1988.

Chass, Murray. “Yanks Sign Hawkins To $3.6 Million Pact.” New York Times. December 9, 1988.

Curry, Jack. “Hawkins is Perfect; Weather is Not.” New York Times. May 17, 1990.

Thornley, Stew. “Andy Hawkins.” SABR.

Thornley, Stew. “July 1, 1990: Andy Hawkins no-hitter is ‘no winner’ for Yankees.” SABR.

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See more of the “Yankees Birthday of the Day” series here.

“They wanted to put a right-hander in the lineup and I took advantage of that.” That’s how Andruw Jones described getting the opportunity from then-manager Bobby Cox and then-General Manager John Schuerholz to join that 1996 Atlanta Braves team that went on to win the pennant. Jones famously hit two homers in his first two at-bats during Game 1 of the World Series and became the youngest player in history to hit a homer during the Postseason — and the World Series, at that — at just age-19.

However, if you let Andruw tell it, he’d say that the World Series title would’ve been nice but there was another title that he had his eyes on in 1996. “I was kind of mad that I got moved up to Double-A because I really wanted to win a championship in A-Ball,” said Jones when he was asked about his experience in that season. “You didn’t think about [the World Series]. All of a sudden, you’re in the World Series. All I wanted to do was just learn, get better and win. I always wanted to win and just get the opportunity to play the game that you love […] My dad told me a long time ago, ‘Take advantage of the opportunity’ and that’s what. wanted to do for my whole career.”

Jones took full advantage of the opportunity he got back in ‘96 and that was the start of what is now a Baseball Hall of Fame career for the Curaçao native. The importance of being the first Hall of Famer from the island wasn’t lost upon Jones, who expressed gratitude for his home helping to shape him into the player that he’d eventually become. “Since we grew up, we [in Curaçao] wanted to play baseball,” stated Andruw. “I will say ‘Thank you’ to Hensley Meulens for giving us the opportunity to be the first guy who opened the door for us. Curaçao had so many guys that signed professionally that never made it. I used to work out with them and they taught me so much about what to look forward to in the minor leagues so I can be successful. I took advantage of all those opportunities that those guys gave me, so to be the first guy to make it from Curaçao is a great honor and I know we’re going to have more people coming.”

While Andruw Jones was quick to remember the role that Curaçao played in his path towards Cooperstown, he also made sure to remind everybody that he is still very much in love with the Braves organization. “Big shout-out to Braves Country,” stated Jones when asked about his connection to the city. “I know everybody supported me throughout my whole career. Even when I left, the fans supported me. They knew I was always going to be a Brave and it was just a great time. I went to different teams but I always was a Brave. I was always loyal to the Braves.”

“I still live in Atlanta, my kids grew up in Atlanta. I feel like I live in Atlanta more than Curaçao. I’m basically an Atlantan,” stated Andruw. Jones went on to talk about how he was excited about already being in the Braves Hall of Fame before saying that he was proud to help get another member of the Atlanta Braves into the Hall of Fame. So, if you had any question about what logo is going to be on Andruw’s hat on his plaque, I think it’s safe to assume that there’s going to be “A” logo on that plaque in Cooperstown.

While Andruw Jones is certainly happy to finally receive his day in the sun later on this Summer and also rubbed shoulders with a ton of Hall of Famers (both teammates and mentors alike) on his way to Cooperstown, Jones did admit that he never really saw it as a focus of his career. “I didn’t play this game to be a Hall of Famer,” stated Andruw when asked about how it felt to finally be inducted. “I played this game to help my team win. Obviously we didn’t win a championship but we won our division every single year for fourteen-straight [years].”

He was definitely proud of being part of that divisional dynasty but Jones did eventually admit that it was pretty cool to say that he could be considered in the same class as other baseball legends in the Hall of Fame. “To be honest with you, it’s just a great honor to just be within that class,” admitted Andruw. “As a baseball player, we all know how hard it is to get into the Baseball Hall of Fame. To get that chance is just one of those things you would never forget. To be in a class with all of those greats all of those legends…it’s just a great honor.”

So while Andruw Jones was effusive in his praise and admiration of his fellow Hall of Famers, it was one thing from Chipper that helped keep him motivated while he was patiently waiting for his Hall of Fame chances to improve. “The one thing that Chipper said a long time ago is that ‘I don’t think the Hall of Fame would be complete without [Andruw] being in it. I think his wish came true. I’m so honored and so proud to be part of that big group,” which included Bobby Cox, Fred McGriff, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and then Chipper Jones as well.

While there’s always an aura of “What if” surrounding those ‘90s Braves teams, it’s clear based on their presence in Cooperstown that that group certainly made a significant impact on the landscape of baseball during their era. Andruw Jones always looked like he fit right in with the rest of those elite names and now he’ll have the plaque and spot in Cooperstown to prove it.

It’s been an offseason of shocking, sobering change for the New York Mets. But as the comforting sight of pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training lurks just around the corner, there’s at least one thing fans will find familiar about the revamped team: the Mets’ roster is, once again, overflowing with infielders. 

Despite parting with longtime franchise stalwarts Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil, the Mets somehow exit the winter with a more infield-heavy group than the one they sported last season. Trade acquisition Marcus Semien is slated to start at second base, while signings Jorge Polanco and Bo Bichette will play new positions in first and third base, respectively. 

The new multi-year acquisitions — especially the signing of Bichette— will leave the Mets’ homegrown infield trio of Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio scrounging for playing time once again. It’s becoming a familiar pattern for all three players, who have seen their names smattered across a variety of top prospect lists, mock trades, and minor and major league lineups over the past three years. It seemed 2026 might be a year when all three got the chance to start regularly at the major league level, but now that possibility feels as distant as the 2024 team’s “OMG”-infused energy. And as if it wasn’t clear enough from the Mets’ offseason thus far, their trading of Luisangel Acuña Jr. — a 23-year-old top prospect with six years of service time remaining — re-affirmed the motto of the offseason: no one from the 2025 Mets is a safe bet to remain in Queens.

So with just over two months until Opening Day, it’s time to once again evaluate where each of these promising young players stand as members of the Mets’ projected 2026 roster, as chips on the trade market, and as future big leaguers…

Mark Vientos(Entering age-26 season / Free Agent after 2029)

Among the Mets’ homegrown infield quartet, Mark Vientos has far and away displayed the highest upside at the major league level. In 2024, at just 24 years old, the right-handed hitter posted a .837 OPS in the regular season and a scalding .998 OPS with five homers in the postseason, positioning himself as one of the most exciting young bats in the game. But Vientos was unable to build on his stellar sophomore season, seeing his OPS drop to .702 in 2025.

If Vientos isn’t slugging, he isn’t adding much value via other facets of his game. Vientos recorded a 19th-percentile sprint speed and -7 Outs Above Average while primarily playing third base last season. The result was that he recorded -0.2 bWAR, a dismal mark bound to repeat itself if he bears a below-league-average OPS again. While there’s every chance his bat bounces back — he’s only 26 years old, after all — it’s understandable that the Mets might be hesitant to pin their hopes on a player whose floor is below replacement level. That doesn’t mean, though, that another team won’t be eager to take the risk. 

With the veteran Polanco slated for first base and the star Bichette slated for third base in the Mets’ Opening Day lineup, Vientos would once again have to earn his playing time the hard way, as he did back in early 2024. It’s a tough position to be in, something which Vientos has acknowledged before by calling it “extremely difficult” to improve in a part-time role. Rather than having him languish on their bench, the Mets might be more inclined to trade Vientos to an organization willing to let him play every day. This would afford Vientos the best shot to re-capture his lightning in a bottle success, award another team a hungry and talented young player with four years of team control remaining, and allow the Mets to negotiate the potential acquisition of a starting pitcher. But even if Vientos remains, he can still use that hunger to try and earn himself everyday playing time somehow. He’s done it before. Perhaps he can do it again.

Brett Baty (Entering age-26 season / Free Agent after 2029)

A first-round draft pick and top prospect, Brett Baty did not have the sizzling start to his career that some anticipated, but he’s improved markedly with each season spent in the majors. In 2023, he recorded -0.7 bWAR with a 66 OPS+ in 108 games. Over 50 games in 2024, his OPS+ rose to 81. In 2025, Baty finally earned everyday playing time, putting up a 111 OPS+ fueled by hot streaks in May and August. Baty saw his time split between third base and second base, recording 2 OAA at third and -1 OAA at second.

It’s hard to envision Baty being a more reliable bat in the lineup than Bichette, who has posted an OPS+ of 120 or higher in six of his seven big-league seasons. But if Baty’s pattern of offensive improvement continues and he rakes off the bench, there are still a few potential paths to increased playing time. One path is if Bichette’s third base defense is worse than or comparable to his middle infield defense, which could compel the Mets to move him to DH and give Baty starts at third. A second path is if Semien repeats his early-season struggles from 2025. The second baseman had an OPS of just .507 through his first 50 games last season, and while Semien still provides high-end defensive value, the Mets may not have as much patience for those offensive struggles given their plethora of infield options. In that case, Baty would be a candidate to get starts (or at least pinch-hit opportunities) in Semien’s place. 

A third path is if Baty sees time in left field, something which Jon Heyman recently reported that the Mets are envisioning, and which David Stearns alluded to as a possibility way back in December 2024. Baty has played exactly one major league inning at left field, but he played 29 games there in the minor leagues. Will Sammon also reported on Sunday that “the Mets want Brett Baty to perform the utility role that they formerly envisioned for Jeff McNeil,” including potentially seeing time at first base. Like Vientos, Baty’s four years of team control and proven upside make him an attractive trade candidate; but the fact that Baty isn’t a fielding liability and that the organization see him as a versatile defensive option means he has a higher chance of providing meaningful value to the 2026 Mets.

Ronny Mauricio (Entering age-25 season / Free Agent after 2029)

Ronny Mauricio currently holds an 84 OPS+ over 292 big league plate appearances, but most Mets fans will tell you that number doesn’t reflect his offensive potential. One reason is because, in contrast with the two players we’ve discussed thus far, Mauricio has never really gotten an earnest shot to be an everyday player at the major league level. After a cup of coffee in September 2023, Mauricio missed all of 2024 and the start of 2025 with a right knee injury. While Mauricio then spent the majority of the 2025 season in the majors, he received sporadic playing time, only starting in 43 games over four months. It’s understandably difficult for a 24-year-old to adjust to major league pitching while only getting a handful of at-bats per week, and so the Mets are yet to see exactly what Mauricio would be capable of if given consistent playing time.

Another reason to believe in Mauricio’s potential is that when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. His first major league hit was a double off Logan Gilbert which registered a 117.3-mph exit velocity, making Mauricio one of only 10 players to hit a ball that hard during the 2023 season. In 2025, Mauricio recorded an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, which ranked sixth among Mets with 100 plate appearances. Mauricio has also delivered some fairly clutch moments. Of the six homers he hit in 2025, five put the Mets ahead or tied the game, and four of those five came in the sixth inning or later.

But despite his promise, Mauricio has nonetheless struggled to make contact and lay off pitches outside the zone, with a 33.9 Whiff% and 39.9 Chase% last season. It’s difficult to imagine those numbers would keep up if Mauricio was given more consistent playing time, but it’s also difficult to imagine Mauricio getting the opportunity to improve meaningfully on the 2026 Mets’ roster. Second base and third base belong to Semien and Bichette, and if one needs a day off or misses time due to injury, Baty — not Mauricio — would surely be the next man up. Mauricio’s ceiling may very well be the highest of all four of the Mets’ infield trade candidates, but Mauricio’s floor is also the biggest unknown of the bunch. As Amazin’ Avenue’s Lukas Vlahos wrote in Mauricio’s season review, “It is of course easy to dream on the lightning quick bat and gargantuan home runs he pops off every once in a while, but we’ve been talking for a half-decade about the same problems here with little improvement.” A team with belief in Mauricio’s bat and a middle-infield spot open might be a better home for the young slugger than Queens in the coming seasons.

Good morning everyone! We’ve got much to report on as we get this Wednesday underway, so let’s get to it.

In Mariners news…

• In case you missed it, Shane Lantz at Baseball America spoke to Mariners farm director Justin Toole about the organization’s excitement for what Jonny Farmelo can do with a healthy season. ($)
• The Mariners announced their full slate of minor league coaches for the 2026 season.

Around the league…

• Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones were named to the 2026 Hall of Fame class, joining Contemporary Baseball Era Committee selection Jeff Kent. Though he was not inducted this cycle, Félix Hernández saw a 20% jump, boding well for his future chances.
• After years of speculation, Luis Robert, Jr. has finally been dealt — sent to the Mets in exchange for infielder Luisangel Acuña and righty Truman Pauley.
• The Marlins acquired right-hander Bradley Blalock in a deal with the Rockies.
• MLB owners are reportedly furious with the Dodgers’ signing of Kyle Tucker and plan to make a huge push for a salary cap next winter. Evan Drellich at The Athletic has the latest. ($)
• Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic explained why the looming danger of a lockout doesn’t seem to be changing how teams are operating this winter. ($)
• The Phillies are not taking Bo Bichette’s signing with the Mets well, with team president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski calling it a “gut punch.”
• Chicago Cubs star Pete Crow-Armstrong and young Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams formed a tight bond in a very modern way — through social media.
• Alden Gonzalez at ESPN provided an offseason check-in for the AL West.
• Davy Andrews at Fangraphs dug into how pitching stuff numbers have changed over the last several years now that all teams are prioritizing it.

Anders’ pick…

• For all of you film buffs out there, the New York Times unveiled its predictions for the 2026 Oscar Nominees.

We looked at Astros hitter projections a couple of weeks ago and the natural follow up would be pitchers. However, I specifically waited on them because some projection systems had not released their projections yet. There are still some (like ZIPS) that are not universally available yet. However, there are now enough to get a good idea of what the industry as a whole thinks about the Astros rotation this year.

I should note a couple of things first. The main thing is that projection systems seem to do better with rate statistics like ERA, WHIP, K/9, and BB/9. They don’t do as well with innings, wins, strikeouts, and total walks. So, we are only looking at ERA today. It should also be noted (like we did with hitters) that it is Joe Espada’s job to marshal his resources to maximum advantage. That means choosing who gets to start, how often they start, and how deep into games he allows them to pitch. That will have more of an impact on counting numbers than ERA.

The second thing we should keep in mind is that projection systems are based primarily on batted ball statistics and ERA predictors like FIP, xERA, and SIERA. Those all based their numbers of the type of contact (and amount) a pitcher allows and usually they assume league average fielding and league average luck factors. Statistics like batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and left on base percent (LOB%) vary from year to year even with the same pitcher. Pitchers can control some of that by inducing weaker contact, more groundballs, or more pop flies, but there is a lot a ton of variance there as well. Astros pitchers seem to outpace the projections on a routine basis. Of course, we can look at that in the lab at another time as well.

Current Candidates

	Steamer	ATC	The Bat	OOPSY	B-ref	Aggregate
Hunter Brown	3.63	3.56	3.59	3.34	3.36	3.50
Mike Burrows	4.22	4.16	4.33	4.00	4.01	4.14
Tatsuya Imai	4.37	4.22	——	4.40	——	4.33
Ryan Weiss	4.31	4.38	4.40	4.35	——	4.36
Nate Pearson	4.32	4.54	4.75	4.00	4.85	4.49
Spencer Arighetti	4.55	4.64	4.83	4.34	4.45	4.56
Lance McCullers	4.38	4.59	4.61	4.45	5.11	4.63
Jason Alexander	4.30	4.51	5.14	4.71	4.45	4.62
Cristian Javier	4.96	4.81	4.84	4.80	4.28	4.74

You don’t have to be a math whiz to figure out the positives and negatives from the table above. I count nine starting pitchers there. Obviously, the max rotation the Astros will go with will be six. So, three of these guys will either be in the bullpen or in the minors. I should note that every projection system had Nate Pearson slated for the bullpen. He is on this list because the Astros have publicly said that he will be a candidate for the rotation coming out.

Once you get past Brown, you could put a blindfold on any of us and ask us to point at a name and we will come out with a similar pitcher in projected quality. Some of these are reasonable surprises. I think most observers are more hopeful that Javier and Imai will pitch better than their projections. I think most fans would be elated if McCullers managed to get close to this projection this year.

The rest are about what we would expect. The clear weakness is a lack of a number two pitcher. Framber Valdez routinely came in with ERAs of 3.50 or lower. He faded down the stretch last year and still came in under a four ERA. So, the math nerds at those various sites are telling us the Astros have not filled that particular role. That brings us to elephant in the room.

Potential additions

When we start talking additions we are looking at free agents and trades. There is quite literally an infinite possibility when it comes to trades, but the free agents are dwindling. There are two names coming to the forefront on both counts due to rumors circling Isaac Paredes and a potential reunion with a former Astros legend.

	Steamer	ATC	The Bat	OOPSY	B-Ref	Aggregate
Brayan Bello	4.39	4.32	4.38	4.32	3.85	4.25
Justin Verlander	4.44	4.47	4.64	4.32	4.28	4.43

Obviously, Bello is part of a rumored return for Paredes. It would likely be either Bello, Jarren Duran, or Wilyer Abreu. We could get into those specifics at another time, but a part of the calculus on Bello is that he came up with a 3.35 ERA last season in Boston. Those aforementioned ERA projectors all came in considerably higher than that. So, this is one of those push and pull situations where we can fall on one side or the other.

On the one hand, he does not projected to be any better in quality than the other Astro hurlers. One of the reasons why you make a trade is that it allows you to improve your team in some area. That can be through a player for player swap or financial considerations that allow you to spend elsewhere. Bello would not save you money and based on the numbers above it would not remarkably improve your prospects.

However, Brown is the only pitcher above that hurled more than 100 innings last season at the big league level. Arighetti’s elbow is being held together by chewing gum and bailing wire. We don’t know what Imai’s workload will be and Javier barely came back from TJ surgery last season. When we throw in McCullers’ frequent ailments we can see that durability does have value. The deciding factor will likely be whether the scientists in the pitching lab think they can unlock something in Bello. We won’t know that until a deal is made.

As far as Verlander is concerned, there are two primary positives and one negative. The negative is the same as Bello. His numbers do not present a considerable bump over what is there. However, he would be another arm that would give the Astros a track record of innings. Adding both pitchers would be impractical, so it would be one or the other depending on what happens with a theoretical Paredes deal.

The main advantage Verlander brings is leadership and public relations. He probably doesn’t increase your winning odds materially through his pure numbers, but his impact on the clubhouse would be a factor and he would be a revenue generator for the franchise. They would need to move around some money to make that work, so it is an open question as to whether that is getting the best bang for your buck. Of course, that is also another topic for another day.

The Mets' trade for White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr.felt like a bolt from the blue, but that's only because of the time it happened -- after 11 p.m. on Tuesday.

While most people were either sleeping or waiting for a resolution on free agent outfielder Cody Bellinger (whether he would wind up with the Yankees, the Mets, or one of two other unnamed teams),David Stearns struck for Robert.

New York had been after Robert since last season's trade deadline, when Chicago's asking price was exorbitant.

The cost wasn't high this time around, with the Mets securing two years of control of Robert in exchange for Luisangel Acuña and minor league pitcher Truman Pauley.

When it comes to the player the Mets are getting, it's one who is one of the best defensive center fielders in the sport, one of the fastest runners, and one who has elite bat speed.

The offense is something you can dream on. Robert has had two consecutive down seasons, but he showed serious flashes last summer when he slashed .297/.350/.468 in 140 plate appearances over 35 games from July 11 to Aug. 26 -- when his season ended due to a hamstring injury.

With the 28-year-old Robert now in tow, the Mets' starting offense could be complete.

Is it possible they go wild and sign Bellinger next? Sure.

However, that would not only block Carson Benge but likely add another $40 million or so to a payroll that is now up to $366.9 million. 

So, what's next?

Before New York landed Bo Bichette, they were considering a host of moves, including a signing of Framber Valdez.

Like Bichette, Valdez is attached to a qualifying offer, meaning the Mets will face additional draft pick penalties if they sign him. Despite that, they are open to it, Will Sammon of The Athletic reported a few days ago.

How that might change after dedicating at least $22 million to Robert remains to be seen.

But signing Valdez would be the cleanest and easiest way to add a needed top-of-the-rotation starter to the staff.

Valdez, 32, could theoretically be had on a three-or four-year deal for around $30 million annually.

The above type of contract would theoretically be in the wheelhouse of Stearns, who generally prefers to not go long on contracts for pitchers over 30.

Valdez has been a workhorse over the last four seasons, posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 767.2 innings. 

After leading the American League in innings pitched in 2022 (201.1 IP), Valdez hasn't really slowed down. He fired 198.0 innings in 2023, 176.1 innings in 2024, and 192.0 innings this past season.

If not Valdez, there's the trade market, where Milwaukee Brewers ace Freddy Peralta is still perhaps the top option.

Peralta, who is a year away from free agency but reportedly open to signing an extension, could possibly be acquired for one of the Mets' young starting pitchers (of the non-Nolan McLean variety) and one more impact prospect.

Is that a price New York would be willing to pay?

If so, will the Brewers prefer what the Mets would offer to what they might be able to pry from the interested Dodgers, who are collecting star players like Joey Chestnut eats hot dogs?

As unlikely as it might be with the Tigers aiming to contend in 2026, the Mets should also be on the phone with Detroit about pending free agent Tarik Skubal.

Because of how New York's offseason has unfolded, with them having yet to part with any of their top prospects, they could be in unique position to acquire Skubal if he can be had.

It would take a relative ton.

Perhaps two of the Mets' top pitching prospects, one of their best hitting prospects, and more. That's the cost it takes to acquire the best pitcher in baseball in his prime.

No matter which direction the Mets go when it comes to the addition to the top of their rotation, adding that desired pitcher feels inevitable.

It will likely be the finishing piece to an offseason that started out with uncomfortable upheaval, but seems destined to end right where Stearns thought it would -- with the Mets set up to be a 90-plus win team and legitimate World Series contender.

Bud Black and Wil Myers returned to the San Diego Padres organization last week and each will serve a role in helping the Padres reach the ultimate goal of winning a World Series. Black will serve in a front office role and Myers will serve in a coaching role at the lower levels of the organization. The unique perspective Black and Myers have from their own careers in MLB is part of what allows them to also have a unique perspective of the Padres according to AJ Cassavell of Padres.com. Black and Myers have been in San Diego for some of the down times, and the hope is that both will be back for the ultimate high.

Padres News:

• Randy Vasquez has been the center of attention in many of the Padres pitching rotation projections throughout the offseason. Some fans think he can be a key figure in the rotation, while others think he should remain a back of the rotation pitcher at best. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune looks at what the 2026 season could look like for the right-hander.
• Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says the Padres are still looking to make additions to their roster. Some of the free agents he lists as possible targets are pitchers Lucas Giolito, Nick Martinez or Justin Verlander. Rosenthal also stated the Padres are one of the many teams talking to the Milwaukee Brewers about trading for ace pitcher Freddy Peralta.

Baseball News:

• Centerfielders Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones were selected as the newest members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame by the baseball writers. The full results of the voting can be found here.
• The last big-name position player Cody Bellinger may be nearing a decision about where he will play in the 2026 season. That will likely not be in New York as a member of the Mets after the team traded for outfielder Luis Robert Jr. from the Chicago White Sox late Tuesday night.
• Evan Drellich of The Athletic is reporting the owners are “raging” at the free agent deal Kyle Tucker signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers and added that the owners will “100 percent” push for a salary cap. Drellich added that the Dodgers and Mets might be the only teams that would oppose a cap.

Good morning! The Baseball Hall of Fame will have two new members in a few months, as Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones were officially elected yesterday. The two Red Sox legends on the ballot, Dustin Pedroia and Manny Ramirez, failed to hit the 75% vote threshold.

Pedroia, though, is only in his second year on the ballot and saw his vote percentage jump from 11.9 to 20.7, which bodes well for his campaign going forward. But Manny Ramirez, one of the greatest hitters in baseball history, is off the ballot after 10 years, receiving just 38.8% of the votes.

Talk about what you want, remind yourself of just how great Manny was, and be good to one another.