Dusty Baker infamously refused to play Yainer Diaz at catcher more than once or twice a week during his first full season in the big leagues in 2023. The reasoning was that he wasn’t ready for the rigors of everyday catching. What many of us pointed out at the time was that Diaz was a vastly superior hitter to the incumbent Martin Maldonado, and the defensive metrics seemed to point to the fact that he was also the superior catcher as well that season.
I was one of those ringing that bell continually that season. I stand by that analysis. This is because we could add in some other numbers that measure the so-called intangibles. Intangibles are things we are not able to measure. Fans, scouts, coaches, and historians often cite intangibles when trying to pick between two seemingly similar players. One of the core beliefs in the lab is that intangibles are things we are not able to measure yet. The yet is the key word there.
Pitch framing used to be a skill that people counted as an intangible. It was called that because we had not figured out how to measure it. We now have a stat for that, so it is no longer an intangible. Similarly, those that call themselves experts (some are and some just call themselves experts) point to handling of the pitching staff and calling a game as an intangible. Can’t we measure it?
It would seem pretty easy to do and most sites actually have a number for it. They call it “catcher ERA.” It is the simple calculation of the pitchers that have thrown to that catcher and what their ERA was while doing it. It seems so simple, but most hardcore statisticians don’t look at it for one important reason; second catchers usually catch one or two pitchers exclusively. If those pitchers are really good or really bad that will skew the results.
| Innings | rCERA | DRS | FRV | |
| Yainer Diaz | 192.1 | 0 | -3 | -3 |
| Christian Vazquez | 149.0 | 0 | +3 | +2 |
These are the numbers most people look at when they start breaking down the Gold Glove awards. Obviously, there are numbers based on how well a catcher blocks pitches and dirt and a number for how well they control the running game. These numbers get combined into fielding run value and defensive runs saved. It is easy to see here that the good folks at the Fielding Bible and Fangraphs like Vazquez’s work more than Diaz. They think both are fairly neutral when looking at how they are handling pitchers.
Are they equal though? Sometimes the oldest and most simple numbers are the best ones. Back in 2023, the Astros had a better record in games that Diaz caught and the pitchers seemed to do just as well. So, all of the anecdotal evidence that pitchers liked to throw to Maldonado more than Diaz wasn’t borne out in the actual numbers that pitchers were putting up.
This is the ultimate problem with the current narrative. The current narrative is that Dusty Baker was right not play Diaz and Chas McCormick more in 2023 because they both suck now. Every season exists in its own universe and it is up to the manager to discover as quickly as possible what that particular season has in store. So, who Diaz was or wasn’t in 2023 is immaterial. The question becomes who is Yainer Diaz right now and how successful is he working with pitchers?
There are only two crude numbers we are going to look at. First, we will look at the average number of runs per game that the team has allowed when these two catchers were starting. Vazquez has now started 17 games on the season while Diaz started 22 before he went down with an injury. So, we will look at the number of runs per game the team has allowed in those starts and the team’s won-loss record when those catchers caught. I will do the same thing with both Diaz and Martin Maldonado in 2023 to demonstrate what I’m talking about.
2026
| RPG | W-L | |
| Yainer Diaz | 5.64 | 7-15 |
| Christian Vazquez | 5.06 | 9-8 |
These numbers aren’t perfect. Diaz caught both of Hunter Brown’s starts and Vazquez caught all of the Imai starts. One could easily remove those to give this a more even look and we would see an even starker difference between the two. However, the point is pretty clear. Pitchers pitch better to Vazquez than they do to Diaz and the team is generally more successful. Obviously, Vazquez also currently has better offensive numbers, but even without the offensive numbers, the advantage would be there. Let me break down 2023 really quickly to demonstrate the difference.
2023
| R/G | W-L | |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.10 | 30-18 |
| Martin Maldonado | 4.54 | 60-54 |
As we move closer to Memorial Day we come to realize that every season exists in its own universe. So, the notion that Dusty Baker was right because Yainer Diaz currently is no good makes very little sense. Diaz was better offensively in 2023. He was better defensively in 2023. The Astros allowed fewer runs per game when he caught and they won a higher percentage of games when he caught. The decision to play Maldonado was based on past considerations that were no longer true.
Similarly, it will likely be true that Diaz will end up being better offensively than Vazquez. For one, he was just starting to hit before he went down. For another, Vazquez’s Statcast numbers clearly indicate That he is due to regress any minute now. Still, the Astros pitchers are clearly doing better pitching to Vazquez and the Astros as a team are performing better when Vazquez catches. It might end up being closer to one fewer run a game. There is no way that Diaz could produce that much additional damage offensively. So, Vazquez is demonstrating that he should be the guy.
Nathan Eovaldi
Corbin Carroll
Drew Rasmussen
Jeff Haynes/NBAE via Getty Images
