Category: Sports News

Mason Miller walked Max Muncy on a borderline pitch that was initially called a strike, but was challenged by Muncy and overturned, resulting in ball four. Muncy was replaced by pinch runner Alex Call and that proved to be a game-winning decision by Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Miller faced Andy Pages with one out and Call at first base. The pinch runner left the base early attempting to steal second and should have been thrown out. Instead, Miller threw the ball to first base, and it tipped off the glove of San Diego Padres first baseman Ty France and rolled into foul territory up the right field line. By the time the ball got back to the infield Call was standing on third base. Pages won a nine-pitch at-bat against Miller and hit a fly ball into right field which allowed Call to tag up and score on the play to give the Dodgers a 5-4 lead. Miller was replaced by Ron Marinaccio and he struck out the following batter to end the inning.

San Diego needed a base runner and some of their late-inning magic if the Padres were going to avoid the loss. It was not to be as France struck out on a check swing and Freddy Fermin grounded out to shortstop for the first two outs of the ninth. Fernando Tatis Jr. stepped in looking to extend the game and the Friar Faithful were hoping he would launch his first home run of the season and tie the game, but Tatis grounded out to third base to end the game and the Padres suffered a 5-4 loss at Petco Park.

Griffin Canning started on the mound for San Diego and allowed a two-run home run in the top of the first inning to Freddy Freeman. The Padres were in a hole when they came to the plate in the bottom half of the inning and Manny Machado tied the game with his own two-run home run. The game remained tied until the bottom of the third inning when Miguel Andujar hit a two-run home run to make the score 4-2. The Dodgers were able to get a run in the fifth and tied the game in the sixth inning when Freeman hit his second home run of the game to make the score, 4-4. That set the stage for the top of the ninth.

San Diego will try to win the series against Los Angeles today at 5:40 p.m.

Padres News:

• Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune says Fernando Tatis Jr. is not the first Padres slugger to struggle. He added that fans should not expect it to continue.

• Rodolfo Duran waited a long time to get his shot at the MLB level and he does not appear to be willing to give it up any time soon.

• The big three of Tatis Jr., Machado and Jackson Merrill are still looking for offensive consistency, but the rest of the lineup is picking them up and that has resulted in a winning record.

Baseball News:

• The New York Yankees were on the losing end of two challenges – at least that is how the umpires ruled it – and that was enough to send Yankees manager Aaron Boone over the top in their 5-4 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.

• Ivan Herrera hit a 10th inning home run to lead the St. Louis Cardinals to a walk-off win.

• Washington Nationals slugger James Wood hit his first career grand slam, and it never cleared the wall.

• Jacob Misiorowski dominated the Chicago Cubs and helped the Milwaukee Brewers take over as the leader in the NL Central.

• Yandy Diaz helped the Tampa Bay Rays get their 20th win in their last 24 games.

• Jackson Holliday returned to the Baltimore Orioles roster on Tuesday and may be making a position change.

• Martin Perez recorded 10 strikeouts and helped the Padres eat the Dodgers.

Alex Freeland and Cole Irvin headlined a win for the Comets, as only the Loons ended up on the losing side of a full slate of games in the Dodgers minor league system on Tuesday.

Player of the day

For only the second time this season and the first one in front of his home crowd in Oklahoma City, left-handed starter Cole Irvin had a scoreless start. The veteran starter was able to hold the Aces silent through six innings, allowing but just one extra-base hit and no free passes.

After starting the year with a 1-3 record, Irvin has managed to secure the W in three of his last four starts, with the six strikeouts he secured against the Aces representing a season high.

Triple-A Oklahoma City

One rally that started with the bottom of the order had the Comets scoring half a dozen runs on their way to beating the Aces 6-3 at home, also in large part thanks to a standout performance from Cole Irvin. The veteran left-hander was rewarded for delivering six innings by seeing his offense break through in time to earn him the victory.

Ever since he was sent down to make room for Mookie Betts’ return to the big league club, Alex Freeland has played with a point to prove in Triple-A. In this home win, the Comets’ leadoff bat recorded his fifth straight multi-hit performance in the minors, reaching base safely in three of his four plate appearances.

Continuing to work his way back, Kiké Hernández had one hit in four at-bats, responsible for two of the five strikeouts from Comets hitters.

Double-A Tulsa

Despite trailing big early on, as starter Patrick Copen couldn’t find his footing, the Drillers overcame a 3-0 deficit thanks to an outstanding effort from Josue De Paula. At just twenty years of age, De Paula is delivering quite a campaign in the minors’ second-highest level—a key piece of this Drillers team that’s now 23-17 after a 7-5 victory.

For the sixth time in his last seven games, De Paula netted at least one RBI, this time tallying four thanks to a double and a home run, his sixth of the year.

That top of the order with De Paula and Kendall George continues to be a problem for Double-A pitchers, both hitting and on the base paths—each of them stole a bag and combined have now 31 stolen bases in 2026, 20 for George and 11 for De Paula.

High-A Great Lakes

When you get out-homered by your opponent four to zero, a loss is virtually guaranteed. All things considered, the Loons did a decent enough job of making this a competitive game late with a four-run rally in the eighth, as they ultimately fell by a score of 6-4.

Reaching base three times with a double and a pair of walks, also stealing two bases successfully, Eduardo Quintero was the Loons’ standout performer offensively. Quintero was one of the few hitters shining for a team that suffered early on against opposing starter Wande Torres, responsible for six shutout innings.

Single-A Ontario

The Tower Buzzers put on a very peculiar display, blowing out the 66ers 12-4 and doing so with an absurd 17 strikeouts from its lineup—that included a golden sombrero for third baseman and cleanup hitter Chase Harlan, who certainly represented his first name well in this performance.

It should be noted that two-thirds of those 12 runs came in the ninth inning, with the Tower Buzzers padding a lead. Easton Shelton, who had already homered in the sixth, finished his game with four RBI, the most he has had this season.

Interestingly, with starter Cam Leiter completing just 2.1 innings, each of the six Tower Buzzers pitchers who took the mound for this one struck out exactly two hitters.

Transactions

The biggest moves were Mike Sirota’s call-up to Double-A and right-handed pitcher Wyatt Mills getting sent down to Triple-A, with plenty of shuffling between all minor league affiliates for the Dodgers this Tuesday.

Tuesday’s scores

• Oklahoma City 6, Reno 3
• Wichita 5, Tulsa 7
• Great Lakes 4, Wisconsin 6
• Inland Empire 4, Ontario 12

Wednesday’s schedule

• 3:05 p.m. PT: Great Lakes (Zach Root) vs. Wisconsin (Braylon Owens)
• 4:35 p.m. PT: Oklahoma City (Christian Romero) vs. Reno (Tommy Henry)
• 4:35 p.m. PT: Tulsa (Wyatt Crowell) at Wichita (Ty Langenberg)
• 5:00 p.m. PT: Ontario (TBD) at Inland Empire (Aiden Butler)
• game 2: Ontario (TBD) at Inland Empire (Scott House)

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It's another busy day across the majors, which means lots of value in my MLB player props.

I'm keying in on big days from Corbin Carroll, Chris Sale, and Cam Schlittler. 

Read more for my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 20. 

Best MLB player props today

Player	Pick	Odds
Corbin Carroll	Over 1.5 total bases	+124
Chris Sale	Under 1.5 earned runs	+100
Cam Schlittler	Over 5.5 strikeouts	-147

Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases (+124)

Corbin Carroll is having another impressive season for the Arizona Diamondbacks. While the power numbers aren't huge, the outfielder is still batting .285, and he's raking lately. Carroll is hitting .429 over the last week with two doubles, two triples, and two home runs. Six of his nine hits during that span have been for extra bases. 

Carroll has cashed the Over in total bases in six straight contests heading into the finale against the San Francisco Giants this afternoon. Although he's never faced Tyler Mahle, the righty has an ERA north of eight on the road, and owns chase and whiff rates in the 26th percentile or worse. 

• Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCS Bay Area

Chris Sale Under 1.5 earned runs (+100)

Chris Sale looks primed to be in the NL Cy Young conversation again. The Atlanta Braves ace is dominating, compiling a 6-3 record and 1.96 ERA through nine starts.

Opponents are hitting only .183 against the left-hander. Sale has allowed Under 1.5 earned runs in five of his last six appearances, and he tossed six scoreless frames last time out against a solid Cubs team. 

Sale will face the Miami Marlins tonight, who are around the middle of the pack offensively. He's truly looked unhittable this season, and all signs point to Sale tossing another gem as he continues to strengthen his Cy Young odds case.

• Time: 5:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Braves.Vision, Marlins.TV

Cam Schlittler Over 5.5 strikeouts (-147)

Shifting over to another Cy Young candidate in the American League, as Cam Schlittler takes the mound tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays. The New York Yankees righty is one of the breakout stars of the 2026 season, leading the Majors with a mind-boggling 1.35 ERA. He's also sixth in strikeouts with 68 in just 60 innings of work. 

Schlittler has hit the Over in Ks in three of his last four, and he just registered nine punchouts in his most recent appearance against the struggling Mets.

Toronto doesn't typically strike out a lot, but they've been worse lately, averaging 8.33 Ks across their last three games. Schlittler also has all the confidence in the world right now, and ranks among baseball's elite in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates. 

• Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: Sportsnet, YES

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

It has been a long time coming, but it finally feels like the Washington Nationals have an identity as a team. They are a young and hungry group that can mash and play the game hard. This is also one of those teams that is never out of a game, no matter the deficit.

In the past week, the Nats have erased two 5-0 deficits and have come back to win both games. That never say die attitude has become a staple for this team. Sure, the pitching can be rough at times and they can make some frustrating mistakes in the field, but they can always make up for it with the bat. They are also a hard charging and aggressive team on the bases.

If an opponent is not on their A game, the Nats can make team’s lives miserable. We saw that last night against the Mets. The Nats aggression and tenacity caused the Mets to make multiple mistakes in the field. Nats base runners and hitters were putting pressure on the Mets defense, and eventually they cracked. On another night, the Nats aggression could have bit them and been seen as reckless, but that is just who they are as a team.

After the stench of last season, it is fun to have an identity again. There were times in 2023 and 2024 where it felt like the Nats were beginning to build an identity, but it never stuck. I have faith that this identity can stick. The Nats have a whole new staff and braintrust now. Also, those other teams were never leading baseball in runs scored.

It is wild that we are sitting here on May 20th and the Washington Nationals are leading baseball in runs, and it is not even close. The Nats have scored 271 runs, and the next closest team only has 258. These Nats are scoring over 5.5 runs per game, which is absolutely bonkers.

I remember worrying about the Nats offense when they hit .194 in Spring Training. Little did I know that there was absolutely nothing to worry about with this offense. The duo of James Wood and CJ Abrams has been one of the best in the league and the two youngsters have been the engines of this elite offense.

Speaking of Wood, he had a monster night at the plate. Of course, his signature moment was when he hit an inside the park grand slam in the second inning. That was the moment where the game turned. The game went from a comfortable 5-0 lead for the Mets to a 5-4 ball game. It felt like the Mets clenched up after the Nats immediately erased their big lead. This was Wood’s first grand slam, and he made it an exciting one.

Wood tends to be a pretty even keeled guy, but he was all smiles after that. You could tell when talking to him at his locker that he was in a great mood. He was smiling ear to ear talking about his inside the park grand slam. Wood does not show emotion too much, so it is very exciting when he does come out of his shell like he did last night.

While Wood is not the most emotional guy, part of the Nats identity is based on emotion. You saw it when Richard Lovelady closed out the game. Another time you saw it was when Daylen Lile hit a go ahead homer in Cincinnati last week. This team is young, hungry and having a great time right now. Last season, especially in the second half, this was not a team having a lot of fun. They were beat down after a long season, but they have been rejuvenated by this new staff.

Another part of the Nats offensive identity is their power hitting. They are in the top 10 in home runs after ranking towards the bottom of the league the last few years. Obviously, Wood and Abrams are leading the way there, but it is not just them. Jacob Young is showing power we have not seen from him before. Curtis Mead and Keibert Ruiz are also showing increased pop. Jose Tena is another guy who has been hitting lasers, and we saw that tonight when he went deep.

Despite having that home run power, this is not a home run reliant offense either. This team has mastered the art of the double this season. They have 98 doubles this season, which is the most in all of baseball. Under new hitting coach Matt Borgschulte, Nats hitters have loved shooting gaps and driving guys in via the double.

Obviously, they lost due to a 12th inning implosion the other night, but that was a great example of the Nats double heavy offense. They were able to score plenty of runs without homering. This was able to happen because the Nats hit six doubles, all from different players. James Wood, CJ Abrams, Daylen Lile and Keibert Ruiz all have at least 10 doubles on the season.

For a young, fast team, it is fitting that doubles are a part of their identity. The Nats play such an exciting brand of baseball. Obviously it is not a perfect brand of baseball, and as this team matures, they need to clean some things up. However, as a Nats fan, all I could ask for this year is a team that is fun to watch. That is what we have been given in Blake Butera’s first year as manager. They are not a great, or even good team yet, but the Washington Nationals are an exciting team to watch and have a clear identity.

Hickory starter Moises Morales allowed five runs in six innings, including three home runs, striking out two and walking one. Michael Trausch threw a scoreless inning, striking out two and walking one.

Josh Springer was 4 for 5 with two doubles. Yolfran Castillo was 2 for 5 with a homer. Paulino Santana doubled. Hector Osorio doubled and homered. Marcos Torres had a hit and a walk. Dewar Tovar was 3 for 4 with a homer. Daniels Flames had a hit.

Hickory box score

Aidan Curry had an excellent start for Hub City, going six shutout innings with nine Ks and three walks. Joey Danielson struck out one in a scoreless inning.

Malcolm Moore’s hot streak continued, as he doubled twice and homered. Paxton Kling and Yeison Morrobel each had a pair of hits.

Hub City box score

Frisco starter Josh Trentadue had another rough outing, giving up three homers in three innings, and seven runs overall, while striking out three and walking one.

Dylan Dreiling was 2 for 4 with a walk and a stolen base. Arturo Disla doubled and homered.

Frisco box score

For Round Rock, Alexis Diaz struck out two in a scoreless inning. Emiliano Teodo threw a scoreless inning, with 11 strikes out of 19 pitches, striking out one, walking one and allowing two hits.

Cam Cauley had two walks and a stolen base. Aaron Zavala tripled and drew two walks.

Round Rock box score

ACL Rangers box score (Monday)

ACL Rangers box score (Tuesday)

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It's a getaway slate with lots of potential rain spots on the board. The hot weather has come and gone, so digging for some home run gems and MLB player props means circling the few HR-plus matchups.

The HR potential in Anaheim today might be the best on the board, with both offenses - highlighted by Mike Trout and Nick Kurtz - needing a piece of the HR pie. 

These are my favorite MLB home run predictions for Wednesday, May 20. 

Best MLB home run props today

Player to hit a HR	Odds
Mike Trout	+316
Willy Adames	+557
Nick Kurtz	+340
💲Today's HR parlay	+10466

Home run pick: Mike Trout (+316)

I'm kicking myself for avoiding Mike Trout yesterday in a good spot, but at a sub-300 pricetag, it was a pass. That won't be the case today at +316 with a fair price at +280. Trout snapped a 12-game HR drought last night in Anaheim, and his swing speed is not dropping as we enter the Summer months of the season, which can be a worry for the oft-injured outfielder.

Trout gets Aaron Civale, who is a bottom-25 starter in BlastCont% and a pitcher he has already taken deep in a small six-at-bat sample. He isn't the only Halo projecting +EV, as Zach Neto (+433) and Jo Adell (+399) are also on the list. Neto has been crushing, and I bet Adell in yesterday's MLB picks, so the day-after theory is in full effect.

With a lot of rain on the slate, 6-mph winds blowing out to center with mid-70-degree temperatures are creating one of the better hitting environments with a pair of bad bullpens.  

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA

Home run pick: Willy Adames (+557)

I have Merrill Kelly ranked as one of the worst starters on the board today. He gets hit hard, his fly balls leave the yard, and the expected metrics suggest the damage is fully deserved. He’s also coming off a complete game, and that recent two-start stretch against weaker offenses feels due for a hard correction. Just three starts ago, he was carrying a 9.95 ERA with six home runs allowed over a 19-inning span.

Willy Adames is the target today, and Rafael Devers was unfortunately left off the card yesterday despite getting plenty of consideration. Adames has logged 25 at-bats against Kelly, which is a meaningful sample and gives the hitter a sizeable information edge. He’s already taken him deep twice and owns a .946 OPS in the matchup.

Adames has homered in back-to-back games and has an extra-base hit in four of his last five. I’m backing the hot bat in what could be the best starting pitcher matchup on the board, especially with potential weather concerns hanging over the Zack Littell spot.

• Time: 3:40 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCS BA

Home run pick: Nick Kurtz (+340)

Nick Kurtz is climbing the AL MVP odds board and now sits as the No. 5 betting favorite at +2200. Over the last two weeks, he owns the third-fastest swing speed in baseball behind Junior Caminero and Jordan Walker, while also ranking inside the Top 20 in both ISO and slugging percentage. He’s coming off a 3-for-5 game in Anaheim and should get a full nine innings against some of the worst pitching in baseball.

Jack Kochanowicz is a pitch-to-contact arm with poor BlastContact numbers and is coming off a three-home-run outing at home against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

His bullpen is also a massive target, carrying the second-worst ERA in baseball over the last two weeks while dealing with closer issues. The Athletics piled up 15 hits yesterday, including six extra-base knocks.

• Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
• Where to watch: ABTV, NBCSCA

Today’s HR parlay

Mike Trout	Bet Now +10466
Willy Adames
Nick Kurtz

This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.

Just remember this old adage when thinking about the Cubs’ 5-2 loss to the Brewers and the current four-game losing streak: No team is as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. (Conversely, no team is as good as it looks when on a winning streak, and that includes this year’s Cubs.)

So exactly what sort of team is this Cubs team? A team that needs better starting pitching, for one. A team that needs a couple of key hitters to start hitting like they’re capable of. And a team that needs shutdown relief.

All of those things were in evidence Tuesday evening at Wrigley Field.

Everyone knew this was not going to be an easy game with Jacob Misiorowski throwing for Milwaukee. His numbers coming in were ridiculous: Of 202 batters faced before Tuesday, he’d struck out 80 of them — a 39.6 percent strikeout rate. And the Cubs couldn’t do anything with him for the first five innings, even while the first two Cubs hitters of the game reached base. Nico Hoerner walked and Michael Busch reached on an error. All that led to was an 0-for-3 with RISP — just for that inning alone. But the Cubs did make Misiorowski throw 26 pitches in the first inning, and that’s not a bad game plan against the Brewers fireballer — see if you can run up his pitch count and get him out of the game early.

It didn’t work, because over the next four innings, Misiorowski dispatched the Cubs on just 40 total pitches. They managed a single by Seiya Suzuki in the fourth and another single by Dansby Swanson in the fifth. Swanson was erased on a double play.

Meanwhile, Ben Brown didn’t have a terrible start. It wasn’t quite as good as his first two. He allowed seven hits and three runs in five innings, striking out six. The key to both the innings in which the Brewers scored, the first and third, were walks. A one-out walk in the first turned into a manufactured run for Milwaukee. A two-out walk in the third led to another such run, and the other run off Brown was on a wild pitch.

Basically, Brown had to be as good as Misiorowski to give the Cubs a chance, and he wasn’t. That’s not a knock on Brown, who looked decent enough. It’s just that the Cubs couldn’t do anything against Misiorowski. Hoerner, in the first inning, was the only Cubs runner past first base through six.

Here are Brown’s six strikeouts [VIDEO].

Jacob Webb threw a scoreless sixth and Caleb Thielbar, just returned from an IL stint, threw a scoreless seventh. So that’s good; perhaps the pen is stabilizing a bit.

Or, maybe it was before Trent Thornton threw the eighth. He allowed a one-out walk and after recording the second out, served up a home-run ball to Brice Turang.

At 5-0 entering the bottom of the eighth, this one appeared hopeless, but the Cubs did put together a rally. Pete Crow-Armstrong led off with a single and took third when Miguel Amaya doubled into the ivy in left-center.

Nico’s single made it 5-1 [VIDEO].

Busch and Alex Bregman then struck out. After that, Ian Happ walked to load the bases. A single by Suzuki made it 5-2 [VIDEO].

So the bases are still loaded and the tying run is on base. Moisés Ballesteros, back in the lineup at DH, is the scheduled hitter against lefty Aaron Ashby. Craig Counsell sent Matt Shaw up to bat for Ballesteros, knowing that Pat Murphy would counter with a right-hander, which he did, calling Chad Patrick into the game.

Michael Conforto was sent up to bat for Shaw, which is obviously the matchup Counsell wanted. And Conforto, as you know, has had a flair for the dramatic lately.

Not this time, unfortunately. Conforto hit into a force play to end the inning.

Phil Maton entered the game to throw the ninth and that created visions of this 5-2 game becoming a 7-2 game or worse, given Maton’s recent failures. But Maton retired the Brewers 1-2-3. That provides at least a bit of hope that Maton can become a useful part of the Cubs bullpen.

The Cubs went down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth to end it. Swanson thought he had led off with a walk, but Brewers catcher William Contreras challenged the pitch and it wound up strike three [VIDEO].

Close, but definitely a strike.

Here are Craig Counsell’s postgame comments [VIDEO].

With the loss and the Cardinals defeating the Pirates, the Cubs drop to third in the NL Central, virtually tied with St. Louis but a few percentage points behind. Both teams are half a game behind the Brewers.

So again… no team is as bad as it looks when on a losing streak. They just ran into a really good pitcher in this one (Bluesky link):

The Cubs are better than this, and they will win again. Many times. Hopefully, starting tonight at Wrigley Field when they attempt to avoid a sweep. Edward Cabrera will start for the Cubs and Kyle Harrison goes for the Brewers. Game time is again 6:40 p.m. CT and TV coverage will be via Marquee Sports Network.

I’ve created a bit of a dilemma for myself. (Not Jonah Heim related.)

I’m at least reasonably committed to doing the Big Board… but all the questions that I’ve come up with, and that people submitted responses and confidence ratings to, are all scored at the end of the year — except the Braves’ manager one, which is the only one to assign points so far. I’ve wanted to do in-season questions that are resolved and scored sooner, but the 2026 Braves season, as great as it has been, hasn’t lent itself to that for whatever reason. With the Braves dominating, there just hasn’t been much worthwhile, meaty debate on stuff that should or could happen. (I also have a separate dilemma about the best way to score certain things, but… that will be its own series of posts as we get closer to the end of the season and the need for scoring things.)

With that said, I do think Drake Baldwin’s injury and the Braves’ current catching situation lends itself to an in-season question… but, unfortunately, it’s another one that can really only be resolved at the end of the year. Anyway, here goes…

As the Braves waited for Sean Murphy to recover from hip surgery, they signed Jonah Heim to a low-cost ($1.25 million) MLB deal. Heim was an elite defensive catcher from 2021-2023, and the Rangers’ title run coincided with him starting to hit a bit, too, garnering a 4 fWAR season in the process. However, his career fell apart afterwards. Maybe it was the wrist injury he suffered in 2023. Maybe it was something else less overt. But, he went back to not hitting, and more damningly, he went from a cream-of-the-crop defensive catcher to a below-average one. Despite playing for 400+ PAs in both 2024 and 2025, he clocked in below replacement, tallying a combined -0.6 fWAR in the process. His time with the Braves before he was traded was similar despite the small sample of 45 PAs: a .275ish xwOBA, and well below average defensive play. The only reason Heim ended up at +0.1 fWAR in that sample was because he massively outhit his xwOBA in those 45 PAs.

So, that’s Jonah Heim. But, with both Murphy and Baldwin down, the Braves’ other options are… also bad.

Sandy Leon is a 37-year-old veteran of 14 major league seasons who is about as replacement-level as they come. He has a .250ish career xwOBA, and was consistently below replacement from 2019-2025 because he simply can’t hit enough despite the decent defense he sometimes provides. He has a career 0.3 fWAR in 1,752 PAs. He also hasn’t actually provided useful defensive value since 2019, either. It’s not clear why the Braves really wanted Leon rather than some other option, enough to fish him out of the Mexican League when Murphy got hurt again, but here we are.

Chadwick Tromp is 31 years old and is largely a Quad-A catcher. His career xwOBA is even worse than Leon’s (in the .230s). He’s generally gotten positive defensive marks when he’s played enough to accrue them, but he only has 179 career PAs at the big league level. His 0.4 fWAR in that span kinda suggests that he might actually be a serviceable MLB backup catcher, but the problem is that he has a .264 wOBA / .234 xwOBA over those 179 PAs, and if he had a .234 wOBA instead, that positive value probably evaporates. Tromp hasn’t even hit in the minors since 2024. The upside is unclear, if it exists.

The Braves could go outside the organization for temporary help. Unfortunately, there don’t seem to be a lot of options. Guys like Austin Wynns have been on the waiver wire recently, but they’re basically Leon-esque, no hit, some field, veteran options. Heim hasn’t been good in a while but was at least useful once; many of these waiver wire options have rarely gotten MLB exposure and haven’t done much when they have, even if they’ve been around the game for a decade or more.

So, here’s my question to you:

There are two “buckets” of production, for which we’ll use fWAR.

Bucket One is Jonah Heim, since the Braves traded him. (Irrespective of whether he goes anywhere else.) Right now, he has -0.2 fWAR in 20 PAs, which is a bizarrely hilarious -6 fWAR/600 PAs. This bucket consists of that -0.2, plus whatever else Heim does for the rest of the season.

Bucket Two is every non-Baldwin, non-Murphy player the Braves use at catcher this year. This includes Leon, Tromp, and anyone else they use as a stopgap. Leon is currently at -0.1 fWAR (-5.5 fWAR/600, in all of 11 PAs). Tromp had a single in his only PA yesterday, so he’s at 0.1 fWAR in 1 PA. (I’m not pro-rating that, el-oh-el.) This bucket consists of everything Leon, Tromp, and any other guys the Braves acquire to catch do for the team over the course of the season.

Your choices are as follows:

In the below, production means “taking Heim’s rate basis production and applying it over the set of PAs accrued by non-Baldwin, non-Murphy Braves catchers for the rest of the year.” Yes, this is subject to insane variation depending on how much Heim plays. But, there isn’t a better way to do this, I don’t think, because with Heim barely playing for the Athletics, while the Braves are forced to use multiple catchers due to injury, doing a straight-up fWAR basis wouldn’t work.

A: Bucket One (Heim) outproduces Bucket Two (Leon, Tromp, anyone else) by at least 1.0 fWAR. In other words, this is a meaningful difference.

B: Bucket One outproduces Bucket Two, but only by 0.5 to 0.9 fWAR. In other words, yeah, better production, but not really enough to swing anything.

C: Bucket One outproduces Bucket Two by less than 0.5 fWAR, which includes Bucket Two producing more than Bucket One.

Note that due to the quality of player we’re talking about here, “outproduce” can definitely mean less negative.

As usual with these, please assign a confidence score, where 5 is “I am absolutely certain this will occur” and 1 is “I have no idea but feel like participating in this anyway.” So, an answer would be something like A1 (you think it’d be funny if Heim was more productive but you aren’t staking much on it) or C5 (you are certain that the Braves won’t regret shipping Heim off). I kind of imagine that based on the types of people that have participated in these Big Board-soliciting questions, this will be heavily C3 through C5 rather than any As or Bs, but if you truly believe in Heim, here’s your chance to get some Big Board points and gloat later.

Cheering for a lousy baseball team can be a real drag. As the season progresses, the margin for error shrinks. Outcomes become more crucial as the trade deadline creeps into the picture. It’s an unpleasant scenario where wins provide relief instead of joy. Each defeat hurts more and more as the season evolves into death by 1,000 cuts.

Is that a little dramatic? Maybe. But that’s how it felt last season when the Orioles fired Brandon Hyde after a 15-28 start. The team sunk its season by the end of May, and fans were left with a long wait for another chance to compete in 2026.

The Orioles have yet to completely squander another season, but things don’t look great. The heightened frustration comes with a panic that the winning window could be closing before Baltimore achieves any success in the postseason. The Rays and Yankees appear destined for a competitive division race, and the Blue Jays—not the Orioles—feel like the struggling team that could eventually make a run.

It’s times like these when searching for the positives feels like grasping at straws. The Orioles need some real changes if they’re going to recover from a disappointing start. What exactly could those changes be?

Jackson Holliday made his first start of the season last night. Camden Chat’s John Beers asked yesterday if Jackson Holliday can make this team better. While Holliday probably won’t make a drastic immediate impact, he represents the sole infield reinforcement with Jordan Westburg officially out for the season.

Holliday is a former number one overall draft choice with plenty of untapped potential. The 22-year-old will likely need to shake off a little rust, and the hamate procedure could rob the young infielder of his power for an extended period. Still, Holliday could breakout as a talented table setter if he manages to find the outfield grass more than Jeremiah Jackson and Blaze Alexander.

Any significant change in fortune would require significant improvement from the starting rotation. Trevor Rogers has been getting absolutely shelled to the point that many are wondering if he’s tipping his pitches. Rogers inability to put away hitters, especially after his level of dominance last season, doesn’t compute.

Rogers will be a free agent at the end of the season. Last year, he looked like a player that the Orioles could not afford to let walk. He’s been a below replacement level player in 2026.

Speaking of replacements, the rotation has needed a few. Injuries to Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and Cade Povich have already carved out a spot for Brandon Young. Young and Povich were the guys penciled in as pitching depth this season. Povich recently received a cortisone injection, and the Orioles have yet to provide a timetable for a return. The lack of additional depth has shifted more youngsters into the picture.

Trey Gibson already made his major league debut. Gibson, Baltimore’s second best pitching prospect according to MLB Pipeline, already has two short big league stints under his belt. The 24-year-old is not currently on the 26-man roster, but he’ll be back at some point with a chance to make an impact. Unfortunately, even replacement-level pitching from Gibson or another Norfolk starter would represent an improvement of Rogers or Chris Bassitt.

There are other Norfolk starters by the way. Nestor German and Levi Wells both rank in the team’s Top 15 prospects. German and Wells look slightly less polished than Gibson, but the trio represent the latest wave of starting pitching hope with guys like Luis De León, Joseph Dzierwa, and Juaron Watts Brown still another click away.

I always find myself looking to these pitching groups when searching for optimism. Dreaming on pitching prospects is a right of passage for struggling teams. It’s more difficult when the team does not prioritize pitching in the draft, but that’s a conversation for another day.

Prospects like Gibson, German and Wells could make a positive impact at some point, but they can’t save the Orioles season. Vintage Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander aren’t walking through that door either. If this team wants to win, the guys already here need to play better. Gunnar Henderson and Pete Alonso have to perform like stars. Rogers and Shane Baz need to pitch to their “Cy Young potential.” Coby Mayo and Colton Cowser have to find a way to hit above the Mendoza line. It really seems to be that simple.

The Orioles are 21-28 with a -57 run differential. I refuse to completely throw in the towel before Memorial Day for the second consecutive year, but the search for optimism continues to be a struggle.

The Phillies have gauged Gage’s progress, and they have found much to be impressed with. The young hurler, less than a year removed from his selection in the first round of the draft, has been sent straight from Low-A Clearwater to Double A Reading. That’s a ringing endorsement from the organization. He had been talked about as a potential fast-mover when he was drafted, and the promotion seems to bear that out. He’s two promotions away from joining the Show, and those promotions could come fast.

Today’s question is: WillGage Wood play for the Phillies this season?

Happy Wednesday, everyone. While there might not be much to celebrate if you’re looking at the Tigers’ place in the standings, we have a little good news to temper the bad in today’s links. For starters, Tarik Skubal is already throwing bullpens, which has to give anyone a glimmer of hope. Plus, the Tigers have played community heroes by visiting a few charities to show support. I’m leading with the good, because Sports Illustrated also wrote an entire article highlighting how the Tigers have become one of the worst teams in baseball, and while we want to be defensive, they raise some valid points.

We also take a look at news around baseball, including the return of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees, and a look at one of the hardest-throwing pitchers in baseball. All that and more in today’s post, so let’s get right into it.

Detroit Tigers News

• Kyle Koster explained in a recent post why the Tigers have become one of the worst teams in baseball. Besides the obvious: injuries, not enough pitching, he also points to the delayed development of young talent, saying:

Colt Kieth is having a strong year fueled by a .293 batting average. Yet he hasn’t homered the entire year and has six RBIs in 43 games. Spencer Torkelson, already sent down to the minors once in his career, is carrying a .191 average with 61 strikeouts. Meadows, though injured, hasn’t matured into the player the organization thought he could be and Carpenter has taken a step back from solid production last season.

• But wait, there’s good news, because Tarik Skubal threw a bullpen session this week! ($)
• Tigers doing good.

AL Central News

• Salvador Perez of the Royals pushed umpire Laz Diaz to the brink after multiple ABS challenges.
• Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong will be fined an undisclosed amount for his interaction with a White Sox fan. PCA has apologized for his inappropriate language used with a female fan who was heckling him.

MLB News

• Blake Snell is the newest pitcher who will miss time due to loose bodies in the elbow.
• How the Padres managed to find themselves atop the NL West.
• A good trick play never gets old.
• Do the Brewers have the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball?
• Could Jackson Holliday be changing positions with the Orioles?
• Some much-too-early predictions for the All-Star Game.
• Why Konnor Griffin is one of the youngest and most precocious millionaires in baseball.
• One stat to explain the weirdness of the Washington Nationals.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is great in the postseason, but the Blue Jays need him now.
• The Yankees will finally see the season debut of Gerrit Cole this week.
• A big donation will help the Field of Dreams complete their new stadium.
• Can’t unsee it now.

• Perhaps I shouldn’t laugh, but I did.

• Two different generations of Japanese talent in one place.

• This looks fake.

On a long enough timeline the survival rate drops to zero. Water finds its level. Everything regresses to the mean. Insert your euphemism here. One of the things we notice with numbers is that over time they usually approach what we would have expected. Unfortunately for the Astros catchers, they are left with Christian Vazquez getting regular starts with Yainer Diaz out.

On Monday, we looked at the league average BPO and discovered that is currently sits at .663. Please feel free to go back and read that piece for a primer on bases per out. What we did there is look at the league average BPO, so that we can calculate and BPO+. Since we are introducing a new stat, I will also include OPS+ just to compare the two.

Obviously, that includes a ballpark adjustment for the three catchers as well. The Astros wound up with a 101 overall park factor so far on the season, so we multiply each player’s BPO by .995 (since half of their games are on the road) to get their BPO+. Obviously, some positions will naturally have more production than others. Let’s get this thing started.

Catcher BPO

One of the things we do to measure the efficacy of numbers is to compare them with other numbers we know have value. Yainer Diaz has a 69 OPS+, Vazquez has a 98 OPS+, and Salazar has a -5 OPS+. It is important to note how OPS and BPO are different. OPS is a nice, quick reference for offensive production (it explains approximately 90 percent of the variance in run production), but it has some significant holes.

The primary hole is a math problem that is difficult to get around. A player like Ty Cobb will have a .360 batting average. That means he will have at least a .360 OBP and a slugging percentage of at least .360. That’s a .720 OPS before we have even accounted for anything outside of batting average. Granted, there are no Ty Cobb’s running around, but there is Luis Arreaz of the Giants.

He has a 132 OPS+ due in large part to a .328 average through May 17th. His .807 OPS is not that impressive when you consider that .656 of it is tied up in batting average. His BPO+ is actually 113. I would still rather have him on my team than not, but one is reminiscent of an all-star and the other is reminiscent of a solid regular. That is because one counts batting average twice and the other does it once.

Vazquez’s numbers in April were unsustainable. Every predictive stat told us that. Part of that is that the power numbers just didn’t match the quality of the contact. The other part is that he is a 35 year old catcher that is suddenly playing five games a week. Even those of us that were souring on Diaz ideally wanted a work share between them.

Critics would correctly point out that you can’t have an all-star at every position and these numbers do not account for the defensive contributions of the player. This is where I would point to another feature I write over Battle Red Blog called “The Value of Things.” The concept is the same as the lab. Every player has an appropriate value and when players get their appropriate value then teams are usually able to afford more reinforcements.

Thankfully, Dana Brown did not extend Yainer Diaz like we would have liked to have seen him do after 2023 and 2024. I’d imagine that he will not end up at a 69 BPO+ when the season ends. His OPS+ last season was a 93 and that seems like a reasonable target for him. His OPS+ has dropped every year from 2023 on and it might very well drop to 85 or 90 this season.

From 1980 to 1988, the Astros kept throwing Alan Ashby out as their primary catcher. Each year they kept telling themselves he would only be the guy until they found someone better. In ten seasons (counting 1979) as the primary catcher, Ashby sported a 101 OPS. Diaz will end up being very similar and when you consider the defensive issues, the Astros will continue on with Diaz much the same way they continued on with Ashby all of those years.

Diaz will only be the guy as long as he is affordable and there is no one else better. Once one of those two things ceases to be the case, he will no longer be the regular catcher. With Walker Janek getting off to a rough start in Corpus Christi, there might not be any reinforcements any time soon. Vazquez and Salazar are here as long as they are cheap. That leaves the expansive world outside of Houston to shop for an improvement.

The last consideration will be the collective bargaining agreement. There will almost certainly be changes to the service time issue and that could also come with changes to arbitration and free agency. Diaz currently makes 4.5 million in arbitration. No one gets a pay cut in arbitration. So, Diaz could end up being a non-tender candidate if things don’t improve drastically. Otherwise you are looking at likely six or seven million for a below average catcher. Based on what you see, what are your recommendations?