Thanks to Ian Malinowski and Adam Sanford in our Slack channel for suggesting that Chandler Simpson may be getting more pitches to run on when Junior Caminero is at the plate.

Lineup protection is the idea that a hitter performs better when a strong hitter bats directly behind them in the lineup. The theory is that pitchers will be less willing to pitch around or intentionally avoid the first hitter because they don’t want to face another dangerous bat with runners on base.

While research generally suggests lineup protection has only marginal effects, something different may be happening with Junior Caminero when Chandler Simpson is on first base. Surprisingly, Caminero is actually seeing fewer fastballs and appears to be getting pitched around more often in those situations. This may not necessarily be a bad thing; Caminero appears to ““level up” in these situations.

Below are the rates at which hitters have seen four and two-seam fastballs since 2025:

• League average all situations: 47.2%
• League average with just runners on first base: 48.0%

League-wide, the presence of a runner on first base has almost no effect on fastball usage. This trend is also evident when we look at the break-down per team:

There are a few base runners who break this trend, but none to the extent that Chandler Simpson changes things. Rays hitters see 47.9% of fastballs overall and 47.3% with just a runner on first base, but that number jumps to 54.4% when that runner on first base is Simpson.

Breaking this down on an individual hitter level (min. 15 pitches seen with just Simpson on first base) reveals something really interesting:

The most surprising result belongs to Caminero: he actually sees fewer fastballs when Simpson is on first base. The average in-zone rate for four and two-seam fastballs is typically at or above 55% each season while breaking balls and offspeed pitches are typically under 43%.

Caminero has hit directly behind Simpson in 19 of 36 games this season, including 18 of the last 24 games. Why would the Rays want their best power hitter seeing fewer pitches in-zone? One possible explanation is avoiding double plays, but the early results don’t strongly support that idea. Caminero’s double-play rate actually increases with Simpson on first base, though the sample remains very small.

While the results aren’t there yet in this small sample, Caminero appears to be more disciplined and controlled in these situations. He makes better swing decisions (evident in his zone minus out-of-zone swing rate) and more contact when just Simpson is on first base:

This is an interesting trend; Caminero is seeing fewer fastballs but his approach is significantly better in these scenarios. Through his first 22 PAs, Caminero has an uninspiring .208 wOBA – much lower than the .357 mark he has maintained in his career so far. An improved process should translate into even better production in a larger sample considering he already has 80-grade power. The potential for greater production from Caminero with Simpson on first could explain why the Rays are comfortable with the trade-off in production from the leadoff spot by having Simpson there instead of Yandy.

Caminero actually sees even fewer fastballs with Yandy on first than Simspon, but that doesn’t benefit Yandy in the same way it benefits Simpson because Yandy isn’t a threat to run:

There are two key things to monitor going forward: whether Caminero’s improved process with Simpson on base holds over a larger sample, and whether that process eventually translates into better production. The Rays already know Díaz is the more productive leadoff option, but Simpson’s ability to pressure defenses and alter pitch selection may create indirect benefits elsewhere in the lineup – particularly in elevating Caminero to another level. If those effects continue to improve Caminero’s underlying process, the trade-off could become worthwhile.

On Monday, we got the very sad news that former Yankees’ radio announcer John Sterling had passed away at the age of 87. The announcement was met with sadness from Yankees’ fans, but also from around the baseball world.

The tributes from Yankee fans are hardly unexpected. Sterling had been the radio voice of the Yankees for over 30 years. Plenty of people, myself included, quite literally grew up listening to him. You may very well watch or listen to your favorite team’s announcers over 100-150 times a year. Even if you never met them, they often can be a friendly voice that you seek out on a daily basis. Sterling was that for a lot of us Yankees’ fans.

Not that I expected people to be ripping him on the day that he died, but the tributes from around baseball did somewhat catch me off guard. To be frank, Sterling was not everyone’s cup of tea. I can completely understand him driving you mad if you were a neutral or opposing fan trying to listen to a Yankee game on the radio. However, I probably shouldn’t have been caught off guard. Again, people are generally speak well of people who just passed away. Also, while other fans might not have been fans of the way Sterling called games, they’re generally able to recognize what he meant to Yankee fans, as they themselves probably have that announcer for their own team. Sterling was ours.

John Sterling was never going to be a Vin Scully-type “voice of baseball.” Towards the end of his career, if you could’ve measured it, Scully probably had a near universally positive approval rating. Yes, he was only broadcasting Dodgers’ games by then, but he had a history of doing national broadcasts, and even after that, fans from around baseball would still tune in to hear him.

For various reasons, Sterling wasn’t that. His style with the personalized home runs calls and random show-tune references wouldn’t have hit. There was also the fact that, yes, he occasionally misjudged whether a deep fly ball was deep enough to be a home run or not. Those types of things aren’t always going to play well to people who aren’t invested in listening to him.

Sterling was ours, though, and he was ours because he cared about the Yankees and he cared about the people who care about the Yankees.

I don’t say that in a way to say that he was a homer. Hawk Harrelson for the White Sox was a dictionary-definition homer. White Sox fans loved him, so I’m not saying that to put him down while writing a piece in praise of someone else, but Sterling was not the same.

Considering his famous “The Yankees win!” call after every Bombers’ victory, Sterling definitely seemed to prefer that to Yankees’ losses, but he wasn’t trying to run cover for the team when things went against them. In recent days, a clip of him from the 2024 ALCS saying the Yankees “ran the bases like drunks” has been circulating. He wasn’t going to sugarcoat things going poorly. However, that wasn’t necessarily out of some strict journalistic duty to be neutral, it was more because that was generally what the Yankee fan base listening to him was feeling, and he knew how to read that.

Also in many of the tributes that you’ve seen, the people who knew him all talk about that he really was a kind and wonderful man. I think you could get that sense just from listening to him, but I think that also came across in things like the personalized home run calls. It didn’t matter if you were Aaron Judge or some random injury backup who got called up for a week or two and would be DFAed immediately after that: Sterling was going to give you your moment in the sun if you went deep.

Sure, it would be nice if Sterling got the level of national admiration that someone like Scully got. However, he didn’t need it. Sterling had the love of Yankees’ fans, and he always seemed content with that. I have a lot of good memories of John Sterling calls over the years, and I wouldn’t trade them for anyone else.

Weather will play a factor this afternoon at Fenway Park as the Rays and Red Sox try to play game three of a four game game set at 4:10pm. As of 12:30pm, the game is still on per Chris Cotillo:

However, the outlook does not look promising. Below is a simulated radar from the HRRR model, which shows persistent, reoccurring batches of rain over Boston between now and 9:00pm this evening.

It will not be raining every minute, but when it does it will come down heavy on and off for several hours. Additionally, temperatures will be chilly and the air will be raw, so even if they do try and play through the weather (which seems like an increasingly common trend across MLB), conditions will be rather miserable.

The best move is probably to postpone the game, but that would either require a double header tomorrow, which the team probably wants to avoid on Mother’s Day, a double header in July when the Rays return to Fenway Park right after the All-Star break, or giving up an off day.

Despite the Red Sox having an off day on Monday, that’s not an option to make up this game because the Rays will be in Toronto to face the Blue Jays.

Looking further ahead, models are also suggesting additional rain problems during the back half of the homestand when the Red Sox host the Phillies. A slow moving system will move over New England late Wednesday into Thursday, putting at least one, if not both games in jeopardy.

Hey, at least this is happening while Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet are on the IL. Might be a chance to minimize their impact of being out.

Bobby Cox, who turned the Atlanta Braves into a National League powerhouse during his decades-long stint as manager died at the age of 84, the team confirmed on Saturday, May 9.

"While Bobby's passion for the game was unparalleled, his love of baseball was exceeded only by his love for his family," the team said in a statement. "It is with the heaviest of hearts that we send our sincerest condolences to his beloved wife, Pam, and their loving children and grandchildren."

Cox was Braves manager on two occasions. Atlanta hired him in December 1977 at age 36, making him the NL's youngest manager at the time.  He went 266-323 in his first stint with the team from 1978-81. 

The Toronto Blue Jays promptly hired Cox after his firing. He would lead the Blue Jays to three winning seasons over the next four seasons, including a 99-win season and postseason appearance in 1985.

Cox returned to the Braves as a general manager in 1985 and named himself manager in 1990, where he would spend the rest of his managerial career.

Over the next 20 years, Cox would lead the Braves to 14 consecutive NL West titles, five National League pennants and a World Series title in 1995.

Cox won four manager of the year awards throughout his 32-year career and finished with 2,504 victories, fourth all time, plus a record 162 ejections. He retired in 2010 and was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2014.

Cox had been the third baseman for the New York Yankees from 1968 to 1969, but injuries cut his playing career short. He would spend the next decade working his way through the Yankees farm system as a manager until he became the first base coach in 1977 and later got his chance with the Braves.

Hall of Fame Braves pitcher Tom Glavine called Cox "the single greatest influence on me as a player, in terms of teaching the game, respecting the game, carrying yourself the right way on and off the field.”

Bobby Cox record

Bobby Cox was 2,504-2,001 in 29 seasons as an MLB manager, winning five National League titles and the 1995 World Series championship.

Last night, the Brewers put together a strong performance to open up their series against the Yankees, shutting them out 6-0. While the final score reflects a complete game from the Brewers as a team, it was Jacob Misiorowski who generated the talk of the game. Not only did he dominate a strong Yankees’ lineup, but he did it with some of the fastest pitches ever thrown by a starting pitcher.

How good was Misiorowski’s start last night?

It was a historic start for Miz. While he didn’t set a single-game strikeout record or post an impressive stat line, he still made headlines with what he did. That was set from the first pitch of the game, when his fastball was one of the fastest in recorded major-league history.

The previous fastest pitch recorded by a starting pitcher came back on July 12, 2022, thrown by Jordan Hicks. Not only did Misiorowski top that, but he did it seven times last night, and five of those came in the first inning. It’s also important to note that Hicks was used as an opener in that game and only pitched 1 2/3 innings. If you want to find a pitch thrown in a more traditional start, that goes back to 2011 by Justin Verlander, thrown in Game 5 of the ALCS. Only 14 times has a starting pitcher thrown a pitch of at least 103 mph, and Misiorowski did it 10 times last night.

Here are some of the other marks he set in last night’s game and this season:

• Third-most pitches of 100+ mph in a single game (43). He also holds the mark for fourth-most (41) and fifth-most (39) in starts this season.
• Four strikeouts of 102+ mph in a single game, most by a pitcher since tracking started in 2008. He has eight in his career, while all other starting pitchers have a combined four.
• 40 careen pitches thrown of 102+ mph, also most by a pitcher since tracking started. Second place is Hunter Greene with 12.
• 161 career pitches thrown at 101+ mph, second most since tracking started. He’s only nine behind Hunter Greene for first place.

To finish this off, here is a video of his 11th strikeout from last night’s game. This was the end of his night at 95 pitches.

What marks is Misiorowski on an early pace to break?

As we approach the end of the first quarter of the season, there’s a larger data set that we can now look at and use to project out the rest of the season. Through his first eight starts, here are Misiorowski’s stats:

• 8 Games Started
• 44 Innings Pitched
• 12 Earned Runs Allowed – 2.45 ERA, 2.63 FIP
• 70 Strikeouts – 14.3 K/9
• 25 Hits Allowed – 5.1 H/9
• 17 Walks – 3.5 BB/9

Since that will be his first quarter of the season, if we multiply it out by four, here’s what the stats would look like over a full season:

• 32 Games Started
• 176 Innings Pitched
• 280 Strikeouts
• 100 Hits Allowed
• 56 Walks

While those numbers look great, I don’t think he’ll hit those marks. That’s not because he’s not capable of it; he absolutely could do that. However, he’s likely going to get some “maintenance” during the season. Whether that is in the form of a couple of skipped starts, a six-man rotation, or a short IL stint, there will be some extra rest built in during the season. With that in mind, here’s a more reasonable projection for a full season:

• 28 Games Started
• 154 Innings Pitched
• 245 Strikeouts
• 88 Hits Allowed
• 60 Walks

That’s still an incredibly strong season. It might not win a Cy Young award, but it would be one of the best single seasons in Brewers’ history. Here’s where that would rank him among the Brewers’ single-season leaders.

All these stats are from Baseball Reference. There is a caveat for these stats, as well. A pitcher typically needs to pitch one inning per team game played to qualify for these titles based on averages. Baseball Reference standardizes it at 100 games for their leaderboards, but if Misiorowski does not get to 162 innings, there could be some debate on whether some of these marks count.

Earned Run Average

Entering this season, here are the top five single-season ERAs:

1. Mike Caldwell, 1978 – 2.36
2. Corbin Burnes, 2021 – 2.43
3. Teddy Higuera, 1988 – 2.45
4. Brandon Woodruff, 2021 – 2.56
5. Freddy Peralta, 2025 & Ben Sheets, 2004 – 2.70

Misiorowski’s 2.45 ERA would put him in a tie for third for single-season ERA. If he improves it a little more, he would have a chance to have the best single-season ERA in team history.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Entering this season, here are the top five single-season FIPs:

1. Corbin Burnes, 2021 – 1.63
2. Ben Sheets, 2004 – 2.65
3. Teddy Higuera, 1988 – 2.80
4. Chris Bosio, 1989 – 2.87
5. Mike Caldwell, 1978 – 2.94

This is a mark that will not fall any time soon. Burnes’ 2021 season is just too good for anyone to top it without a Cy Young season of their own. However, if Misiorowski keeps his current pace up, he could slide into second in that list.

Hits Per Nine Innings

Entering this season, here are the top five single-season marks:

1. Freddy Peralta, 2025 – 6.317
2. Corbin Burnes, 2022 – 6.416
3. Brandon Woodruff, 2021 – 6.524
4. Corbin Burnes, 2023 – 6.552
5. Corbin Burnes, 2021 – 6.629

Misiorowski would top this list as of today by over a hit less than the rest. Most of these marks have been set in recent years, as well. Burnes in 2021 would still top Misiorowski when factoring walks into it, but by hits alone, Misiorowski is on a level above any other pitcher in Brewers’ history.

Strikeouts

Entering this season, here are the top five strikeout totals in a season:

1. Ben Sheets, 2004 – 264
2. Corbin Burnes, 2022 – 243
3. Teddy Higuera, 1987 – 240
4. Corbin Burnes, 2021 – 234
5. Brandon Woodruff, 2021 – 211

Misiorowski has a legitimate chance to set the single-season strikeout record for the Brewers. The 28-game projection would put him just above Burnes for second, but the 32-game one puts him on top of the list. Not only could he do that in his second season in the major leagues, but he would do it in significantly fewer innings. Sheets pitched 237 innings in 2004, and Burnes pitched 202 in 2022.

All of this is fun speculation from a quarter season of data. There’s still a lot that can happen over the course of a season, but so far Misiorowski has shown what he’s capable of. He’s closing in on a full season of data from pitching in the major leagues, and all his numbers keep improving. If he keeps this up, we’re going to see some new Brewers’ history being made.

A tough week for the Atlanta Braves in terms of franchise history and luminaries just got even tougher, as the franchise will now have to mourn the loss of yet another massive figure in the organization. Just days after the passing of legendary owner Ted Turner, former Braves manager and Baseball Hall of Famer Bobby Cox has passed away at the age of 84.

Here’s the official statement from the Atlanta Braves:

“We are overcome with emotion on the passing of Bobby Cox, our treasured skipper. Bobby was the best manager to ever wear a Braves uniform. He led our team to 14 straight division titles, five National League pennants, and the unforgettable World Series title in 1995. His Braves managerial legacy will never be matched.

“Bobby was a favorite among all in the baseball community, especially those who played for him. His wealth of knowledge on player development and the intricacies of managing the game were rewarded with the sport’s ultimate prize in 2014 – enshrinement into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

“And while Bobby’s passion for the game was unparalleled, his love of baseball was exceeded only by his love for his family. It is with the heaviest of hearts that we send our sincerest condolences to his beloved wife, Pam, and their loving children and grandchildren.”

Bobby Cox actually had two stints with the Braves in his post-playing career — a playing career that saw him get acquired by the Braves during the 1960s without having ever played a big league game for them. His first stint started in 1978 when he was named manager at a time when the recently-departed Ted Turner was employing a hands-on approach with the squad. The stint didn’t go particularly well as Cox ended up getting fired following the strike-shortened 1981 season and in typical Ted Turner fashion, the owner lamented that “We need someone like [Cox] around here” in a press conference shortly after he fired him.

It was the second stint in Atlanta that made Cox a legend. Following another brief stint in Toronto, Cox returned to the Braves as a general manager in 1986 and went about building the core of the team that would go on to dominate the National League for the entirety of the 1990s. Once it became clear that Russ Nixon wouldn’t be the manager who would push this team to glory, Cox made himself the manager and then helped bring in John Schuerholz to fill the role of GM. It ended up being the early genesis of a generational run in the dugout for Cox — one that yielded 15 postseason appearances in 20 full seasons, 14 divisional titles (3 NL West, 11 NL East), five National League Pennants, and a World Series title in 1995 

Once the divisional dynasty ended, Cox held on for a few seasons that saw the Braves languish in mediocrity a bit before Cox announced in September 2009 that the 2010 season would be his final season. Perhaps realizing a sense of urgency in the moment, the Braves rallied and made the Postseason as a wild card before bowing out in the divisional round one final time. Cox finished with a record of 2149 wins to 1709 losses — good for a .557 winning percentage while also picking up four Manager of the Year awards during his time as a manager. He also finished his career with 162 career ejections, which is the all-time record.

While Bobby Cox certainly wasn’t perfect — both on the field and off of it — there’s no denying the fact that his man management skills and motivational tactics were second to none and went a long way towards cementing his success as a manager. It’s a testament to his style of management that every single Braves manager that’s come after him has prioritized making sure that the clubhouse was peaceful with everybody pulling in the same direction. The one constant between Fredi Gonzalez, Brian Snitker and currently Walt Weiss is that all of these guys would run through a wall for their manager and the managers managed to take what they learned from Bobby Cox and apply that in their own, unique ways.

Cox was a fantastic manager but he’d also be the first to tell you that it’s all about the players and Cox was able to properly steward an incredible amount of talent during his time as the manager of the Braves. The Hall of Famers from the ‘90s immediately come to mind, as Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Chipper Jones and now Andruw Jones will all talk endlessly about how much they enjoyed playing under Bobby. He continued to stay interested in what the Braves had going on well after his retirement — Brian Snitker noted during the 2025 season that when the 1995 team was in the building being honored, Cox came up to him and tried to strike up a conversation about Hurston Waldrep.

Cox likely would’ve continued to stay around on a regular basis had it not been for a stroke that he suffered in 2019 which slowed him down from a physical standpoint. If not for that, there’s a very good chance that we would’ve been seeing and hearing from Bobby Cox on a regular basis right up until now. Instead, the Braves will now have to mourn two massive losses within the span of a few days. Ted Turner now has someone like Bobby Cox around again. Rest in peace to both.

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The St. Louis Cardinals look to clinch the series on Saturday as they take on the San Diego Padres.

Despite being underdogs in each of the first two matchups, St. Louis has come out on top both times, with both games also staying under the total.

My Cardinals vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks explain why I’m backing both those trends to continue on Saturday, May 9.

Who will win Cardinals vs Padres today: Cardinals moneyline (+125)

Dustin May has shown an impressive uptick in velocity this season compared to last, and has posted multiple quality starts over the past month.

The San Diego Padresrank dead last in BABIP the past two weeks. They also have the fifth-lowest xwOBA while hitting just .213 as a team during that span, leading to a wRC+ of 84.

The St. Louis Cardinalsrank Top 10 in ISO and wRC+ the last two weeks, and should put up runs against a regressing Randy Vasquez.

His underlying metrics aren’t great, he’s struggling to avoid barrels, and he’s allowed 12 earned in his last 21 ⅔ IP.

COVERS INTEL:After relying heavily on a sinker/sweeper combo in 2025, May is showing a more versatile arsenal with four pitches featuring usage rates of 18% or more.

Cardinals vs Padres Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-125)

The month of May has not been kind to the Padres offensively. They rank 26th in SLG, 29th in xwOBA, and are hitting just .194 at the plate.

Finding runs against May won’t be easy. He ranks in the 87th percentile in walk rate and 83rd percentile in barrel rate, and has allowed just eight earned in his last five starts.

The Cardinals have scored just eight runs in this series, while the Padres have managed just one in two games.

Vasquez will allow a few before he exits, but not enough to push this total north of the number.

Cardinals vs Padres odds

• Moneyline: Cardinals +127 | Padres -133
• Run line: Cardinals +1.5 (-163) | Padres -1.5 (+156)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+117) | Under 8.5 (-122)

Cardinals vs Padres trend

The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 37% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Padres.

How to watch Cardinals vs Padres and game info

Cardinals vs Padres latest injuries

Cardinals vs Padres weather

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Following a Friday loss, the Yankees aim to bounce back and level the series in Milwaukee tonight.

This evening’s contest features Cam Schlittler taking on Kyle Harrison, a pitching duel where New York holds a nice advantage.

Read all about it in my Brewers vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 9.

Who will win Yankees vs Brewers today: Yankees moneyline (-135)

Cam Schlittler's started the season at an elite level and has remained consistent. He’s as good as any pitcher in baseball this year, and he has a matchup edge here. I’d play the Yankees to -170 because of it. 

His fastball run value ranks in the 100th percentile of the sport, and his 96th percentile chase rate of just over 38% gives him an elite out-of-zone weapon against a Milwaukee Brewers lineup that must be disciplined to survive him.

The Brew Crew simply doesn’t have the profile of a team that’s going to hurt a guy with a lot of swing-and-miss stuff.

On the other side of things, Kyle Harrison is a talented pitcher, but his Bottom 24 percentile off-speed stuff may give him issues.

This feels like a scenario where a pitcher getting off his fastball (which the Yankees force) is more detrimental than actually throwing the pitch. We’ve seen it a few times this season, though, and it usually works out for New York.

COVERS INTEL: Cam Schlitter’s has the highest overall run value for a starting pitcher in baseball.

Yankees vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-115)

The story of the total is Schlittler, as you might expect. The Under has cashed in three of the last four starts. 

Although I picked the New York Yankees to win, I don't think their offense will do enough to push this Over on its own.

Harrison will have some issues in this matchup, but his hard-hit suppression (88th percentile) and barrel rate (73rd percentile) should keep the Yankees offense in check. I’d play this to -120.

Yankees vs Brewers odds

• Moneyline: Yankees -137 | Brewers +124
• Run line: Yankees -1.5 | Brewers +1.5
• Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Yankees vs Brewers trend

The Yankees have hit the moneyline in 16 of their last 20 games (+10.65 Units / 34% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Brewers.

How to watch Yankees vs Brewers and game info

Yankees vs Brewers latest injuries

Yankees vs Brewers weather

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