Here are five things to watch and predictions as the Mets and Rockies play a three-game series at Citi Field starting on Friday at 7:10 p.m. on SNY.
5 things to watch
When will the hits start to fall for Juan Soto?
The frustration building from fans over Soto's start is understandable.
Soto is hitting a paltry .224/.352/.393 in 247 plate appearances over his first 55 games as a Met. In addition to the numbers not being there, Soto hasn't looked like himself at the plate. He seems to be lunging at times, is not displaying his trademark confidence, and looks a bit off overall.
While Soto doesn't look quite right yet as he gets acclimated to a new team, a new league, and the pressure that comes with signing the biggest contract in the history of North American professional sports, he has also been almost impossibly unlucky on the balls he has put in play.
Soto's BABIP is a career-low .239, which is 62 points below his career BABIP of .302. That unluckiness bears out when you look at his advanced stats via Baseball Savant.
In the 13 main batting stats tracked by Baseball Savant, Soto is near the top of the league in 12 of them, including xBA (90th percentile), xSLG (95th percentile), average exit velocity (94th percentile), barrel percentage (84th percentile), hard hit percentage (95th percentile), chase percentage (100th percentile), and walk rate (98th percentile).
For Soto, two things can be true -- he doesn't look like himself yet, but he's also been wildly unlucky. That means it's fair to believe that his breakout is around the corner, whether it's this weekend against Colorado's woeful pitching staff or soon after.
The Rockies are an abomination
It will likely take just one season for the 2024 Chicago White Sox to be cleared from the record books after they became the worst team in baseball history.
Chicago's futility will almost certainly be exceeded by the Rockies, who enter this series with a horrendous 9-47 record. That's an 18-94 pace. Extrapolate it a bit more and you get a team that is on track to finish with around 130 losses, which would make the 2025 Rockies the worst team in modern baseball history by a wide margin.
This really shouldn't be too surprising, when you consider that their ownership won't spend enough to support the team, that their front office can't get out of its own way, and that they have a farm system that is in the bottom half of the league despite bad records (and high draft picks) year after year. The recipe for disaster was there, and now it's an actuality.
The Rockies have scored the fewest runs in the majors (177) despite playing their home games in the thin air of Coors Field. They've also allowed the most runs in the majors (352), meaning they have a league-worst -175 run differential.
During this series, the Mets should be able to feast on Colorado's starting pitching trio of Kyle Freeland (5.86 ERA, 1.68 WHIP), Antonio Senzatela (6.50 ERA, 1.94 WHIP), and Carson Palmquist (8.78 ERA, 2.03 WHIP).
Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes have been the anchors
The entire Mets pitching staff has been a revelation this season, but it's Senga and Holmes who have stood out the most.
And with Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning starting to regress to the mean a bit -- while Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea areclose to returning but still at least a few weeks away -- New York might need to lean on Senga and Holmes a bit more.
Senga, who gets the start on Saturday, has a 1.46 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and has allowed just two home runs in 55.2 innings over 10 starts.
Holmes, who toes the rubber on Sunday, has a 2.98 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 60.1 innings over 11 starts.
Not to be forgotten is David Peterson, who is building off his strong 2024 campaign. In 58.0 innings over 11 starts, Peterson has a 2.79 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The left-hander gets the ball for Friday's series-opener.
Edwin Diaz is on a heater
Diaz has given up just one earned run since April 11 -- a span of 16.2 innings over 16 appearances.
During that time, he has struck out 24 batters, walked seven, and allowed only five hits.
The last hit Diaz gave up was on May 5, meaning he hasn't surrendered one over his last eight games.
For the season, Diaz has a 2.42 ERA and 0.98 WHIP with 31 strikeouts in 22.1 innings.
Where is Luisangel Acuña?
Acuña hasn't been getting much playing time lately, with Brett Baty becoming a lineup mainstay and Jeff McNeil being in there pretty regularly as well.
New York's recent deployment of Jared Young as the DH (meaning Mark Vientos or Baty at third base) has helped to further shrink Acuña's lineup presence.
Earlier this week, manager Carlos Mendoza talked about Acuña's current role.
"This is a guy that doesn’t get too high, doesn’t get too low," Mendoza said. "Pretty mature for his age and he has a really good understanding of his role right now and the impact that he brings to the team.
"He knows that even though he’s not in the lineup, there’s going to be an opportunity for him to come in and impact it in a good game -- whether it’s by making a defensive play, by stealing a base, by scoring from first base on a ball in the gap, or by giving us a good at-bat, putting the ball in play. I think he obviously continues to develop. There’s a lot of tools there, but I like how he’s handled it so far mentally."
Predictions
Who will the MVP of the series be?
Juan Soto
It's time.
Which Mets pitcher will have the best start?
Kodai Senga
Senga stymied the powerful Dodgers during his last start, allowing one run in 5.1 innings.
Which Rockies player will be a thorn in the Mets' side?
Michael Toglia
Toglia hasn't had a great season to this point, but his power is real.
