The New York Islanders season is coming to an end. The Islanders were eliminated from playoff contention after a 1-6-0 stretch that saw Patrick Roy dismissed as head coach and Peter DeBoer hired.
Since the NHL Olympic Break ended, the Islanders have gone 11-12-0 overall, having plummeted from second in the Metropolitan Division to sixth place and been eliminated before the puck drops for game No. 82.
So, what's the root cause of the issues? There are myriad factors, with the number one issue being the power play's inability to score, now ranked third-worst in the league.
Another factor could include Ilya Sorokin's dip in form after overuse.
Perhaps most underrated is the Islanders' form at 5-on-5 hockey.
Since the Olympic Break ended (23 games), the Islanders have exactly one player who is a positive at 5-on-5 hockey (courtesy of NatStatTrick).
That's Matthew Schaefer, of course. He's been on the ice for 24 goals for (GF), and 21 goals against (GA).
Carson Soucy: 9 GF, 19 GA. Scott Mayfield: 10 GF, 19 GA. Adam Pelech 8 GF, 15 GA. Tony DeAngelo 8 GF, 11 GA. Ryan Pulock 13 GF, 16 GA. Adam Boqvist, 2 GF, 7 GA.
The woes of Soucy and Mayfield shouldn't be overly shocking. As a pairing, they've been out for just four goals for and 12 goals against since the Olympics ended.
Pelech and DeAngelo, when healthy, didn't do so well either. They're at 3 GF and 7 GA at 5-on-5 hockey since the Olympics ended.
The other main Islanders' pairing of Schaefer and Pulock sits at 11 GF and 12 GA at 5-on-5 since the Olympics.
Schaefer's combined total from time played with Pelech, Soucy, DeAngelo, and Mayfield is 13 GF and 7 GA. In limited minutes with Boqvist, Schaefer finished with 0 GF and 2 GA.
The pattern from all those numbers is clear.
Everyone struggled except Schaefer, who excelled. Schaefer helped raise other players' totals and overall performances during an otherwise bad run of form for all involved.
Starting first with the two acquisitions, Ondrej Palat has been on the ice for 10 GF and 16 GA since the Olympics ended in 5v5 action. In his total time with the Islanders, he has been on the ice for 13 GF and 18 GA in 5v5 action.
Brayden Schenn, acquired at the Trade Deadline, has been on the ice for 9 GF and 17 GA in 5v5 play. His most common linemate, Calum Ritchie, sits 7 GF and 15 GA.
When those two have played with Mathew Barzal, those numbers are 5 GF and 6 GA.
Schenn and Ritchie together without Barzal are at 2 GF and 5GA.
That pattern shows Barzal elevated the duo from defensive deficiencies, highlighting Schenn's better impact as a winger at this point in his career.
Ritchie and Schenn are tied for the worst 5-on-5 +/- on the team since the Olympics ended, sitting at -8.
Palat (-6) is third.
Amongst the entirety of the Islanders' forward group, Emil Heineman and Bo Horvat played well down the stretch.
Together, their line produced 9 GF and 6 GA at 5v5, even with Horvat's noted scoring dip.
Without each other as line mates, both saw huge negative swings: -3 at 5v5 for Heineman and -4 for Horvat.
Sometimes, raw numbers don't do the whole picture justice. That's where another fun stat, Expected Goals For/Goals Against (xGF/xGA) and the Expected Goals For Percentage (xGF%) come into play.
NOTE: All numbers discussed below are calculated at 5v5, unless otherwise specified
This statistic measures the overall performance of players and their chances in a game, turning it into a mathematic formula based on the probability of goals being scored based on the quality of chances.
A good xGF% is anything above 50%. The 50% line is equivalent to 0, anything below indicates you're allowing more quality chances than you're generating.
For example, if you watched any games down the stretch, the most consistent Islanders' line was unquestionably Kyle MacLean, Casey Cizikas, and Marc Gatcomb.
The numbers back that up. The trio leads the Islanders in xGF% since the Olympics, with Cizikas and Gatcomb sitting over 60% xGF%, while MacLean's at 57.75%.
Those are exceedingly strong numbers, and show how effective the trio is.
You'd also then think, if these numbers are effective, that Schaefer would be the Islanders' best defenseman.
The answer is yes, no doubt. Schaefer sits at a 56.54 xGF%.
The next best defenseman is Pelech, with a 54.26 xGF%. No player on the Islanders got worse luck than Pelech. He played at an extremely high level, with the Islanders expecting around 22 goals with him on the ice at 5v5.
They only scored eight goals total, completely tanking his actual GF and GA, as shown above.
The worst Islanders at xGF% since the Olympics ended is Anthony Duclair, who had an xGF% of 29.28%, a rough number across eight total games.
Amongst guys who played in most or all games, Schenn sits at the bottom. In 18 games with the Islanders, Schenn's xGF% sits at 43.94%, a very low figure, well below the team's average.
Mayfield and Soucy are the two lowest defenders in this stat amongst the regulars, touting a 47.95% (Mayfield) and a 48.75% (Soucy) respectively.
It's worth noting that in just four games, Maxim Shabanov crushed it. He generated an xGF% of 62.29%, but just didn't get into enough games to see how he would've continued to perform.
Overall, the xGF% for the Islanders is not as bad as you might think it is.
So, what's the biggest takeaway from these numbers? What can be learned about the Islanders' 5v5 play that doomed their season?
One big takeaway should be how badly they missed Kyle Palmieri. He's a strong finisher, adding another true finisher would've helped immensely at 5v5.
Another takeaway should be these numbers should be the numbers aren't perfect, but they can illustrate patterns.
It's no coincidence that the Soucy/Mayfield duo consistently showed up at the bottom, just as Schenn and Ritchie did.
Ritchie is severely hurt by these numbers. Some of his best came on the man advantage, where he totaled seven power-play points since the Olympics ended. Similarly, Schenn added three points on the power play.
You can't dismiss the poor defensive metrics at 5v5 for them together, though.
The numbers also don't show the sometimes-brutal defensive zone mistakes that were made, that often wound up in the back of the net.
Overall, the numbers point to the three big things:
1. At even strength, the Islanders were an above-average team, with weak spots defensively that caused a lot of issues.
2. They lack scorers who capitalize on good 5v5 play.
3. Games get decided in the margins. The margins are special teams. The Islanders' special teams failed in the biggest moments.
In their last 23 games, the Islanders went 13/68. Four of those goals came in two games against the lowly Toronto Maple Leafs.
In fact, of the 13 goals, they scored only 9 in the final 23 games. There were four games in which the Islanders scored twice on the man advantage, one of which came in a 7-3 loss to the Montreal Canadiens.
If you take out the multi-PPG games against Toronto (x2), Montreal, and one against the St. Louis Blues, the power play statistics plummet.
Instead of reading 13/68, that drops to just 5/50, otherwise read as 10%.
In those same 19 games down the stretch, the Islanders allowed four shorthanded goals on those 50 power plays.
The opposition scored during New York's man advantage just as much as they did.
Going down the stretch and having that type of performance overall is just about as bad it gets, and further shows just how bad the Islanders needed to clean up the special teams, but just couldn't.
It's the biggest statistical reason the Islanders won't be in the playoffs next week.
