For some expansion NHL franchises, success comes quickly. The Vegas Golden Knights, for instance, got to the Stanley Cup final in their first year of operation. And they got to the NHL’s semifinal another two years before winning their first championship in 2022-23.
However, for other expansion teams, the road to respectability can be a long one. The Nashville Predators came out of the gate as typical expansion losers, and it took them 11 years to ever win a playoff series. Yet one expansion team in particular stands out as having an especially tough go of it – the Columbus Blue Jackets, who’ve been fighting their way into being true Cup contenders.
The Jackets are in a slump that includes their inability to make the playoffs in any of the previous five seasons. And beyond that, they’ve made it out of the first round of the post-season just once in their 24 seasons of operation – and they still have yet to get to the third round of the playoffs. Thus, it’s understandable why some Columbus fans have become jaded over the plight of this team.
But here’s a hunch on this writer’s behalf: we’re picking the Blue Jackets to sneak into the playoffs in the Metropolitan Division next season. We’re certainly not suggesting being a playoff team in 2025-26 will be easy for the Jackets, but let’s take a look at the state of their roster and see why we believe there’s reason to see Columbus as a team that can end their playoff drought and announce itself as a long-term Cup contender for the foreseeable future.
First, a quick look at the Blue Jackets’ year last season. The Jackets had the eighth-best offense in the league at an average of 3.26 goals-for per game last year. All teams above them in that department, and one team below them in that department, were all playoff teams. However, Columbus’ defense was the eighth-worst in the league at a goals-against average of 3.26, and that’s been the challenge for GM Don Waddell to try to address this summer.
But now, let’s look at the state of their roster: Waddell didn’t make many changes this off-season, adding only veteran Bruins center Charlie Coyle and former New Jersey and Colorado winger Miles Wood. But those are two veterans who can help fortify Columbus’ attack.
At forward, Waddell has assembled an on-the-rise core collection of young players, including center Adam Fantilli, and wingers Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov. And soon enough, Waddell will add another asset when he trades disgruntled winger Yegor Chinakhov. Columbus’ core forwards are solid ones, and if they can stay as offensively potent as they were last year, Waddell is going to be pleased.
Meanwhile, Columbus’ defense corps are also likely to be improved next season. Waddell re-signed veteran blueliner Ivan Provorov to a seven-year deal averaging $8.5 million per season. And Waddell additionally brought back D-man Dante Fabbro, who set new (if modest) career highs despite playing only 62 games as a Jacket last year. It doesn’t sound familiar to say, but the Blue Jackets’ defensemen may be their best element next season.
The only real point of contention in terms of Columbus being a playoff team next year is that the Jackets’ goaltending situation is far from ideal. We're not completely sold on starter Elvis Merzlikins once again getting the lion’s share of the action. And backup Jet Greaves could force his way into the conversation as the Jackets’ starter. Greaves had excellent numbers – including a .938 save percentage and 1.91 goals-against average in 11 NHL appearances last year – and if he does unseat Merzlikins as the No.1 option between the pipes, Greaves will be well worth the $812,500 they’ll be paying him next season.
All things considered, the Blue Jackets aren’t in the upper tier of legitimate Cup contenders just yet. Until their young players prove they can thrive in the post-season, you have to be careful with your expectations of this relatively young team. But it’s not good to ignore that Columbus finished just two standings points, two overtime or shootout losses, out of getting into the playoffs last year. That’s absolutely something you want to build off as a unit, and there should be no step backward for this Columbus team.
All this, and we haven’t yet mentioned two things: No. 1 is superstar Zach Werenski, who absolutely deserved all the votes he got last season as the NHL’s top defenseman. He didn’t win the Norris Trophy, but he deserved to be in the conversation.
And No. 2: Waddell still has approximately $16.3 million in cap space. He’s going to have all kinds of flexibility to go out and make a big move during the season. Columbus can add a proven veteran when the moment calls for it, and whether that’s at forward or in goal is up to Waddell.
We’re getting ahead of ourselves. Right now, all Columbus fans should know is that Waddell has put together a roster that can compete with the powerhouse teams in the Metropolitan Division. And while the days where the Blue Jackets are absolutely dominant may not have arrived just yet, those days aren’t all that far off, either.
So yes, we know it’s only late July, but we’re calling it right now – the Jackets get back into the playoffs next year and end their playoff drought. There will be bumps in the road for Columbus, but the Blue Jackets have the talent and guidance to evolve into a playoff team this coming year. And if they don’t do so, there will be bigger questions on the horizon next summer.
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